Latest / The Fourcast / Starmer vs Streeting: inside the Labour meltdown

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Starmer vs Streeting: inside the Labour meltdown · The Fourcast

0:00
The starter pistol was fired last night #10 declared a
0:03
leadership election and basically said coming up and go
0:05
if you're hard enough. All they have is their own
0:08
thirst for dominance. You end up in this absurd
0:11
situation where we're talking as though Kieran Weirs are two
0:15
radically different politicians with radically different visions
0:18
of the future. They're.
0:19
Not many unpopular politicians have people that will not desert
0:23
them because they believe them to be authentic, at least to
0:27
some things and some principles. And that is what Kier Starmer is
0:30
completely lacking. And it's hard not to conclude
0:33
that the Labour Party is completely stuffed.
0:38
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
0:40
The tracers analogy was just too easy.
0:42
Wes Streeting claims he's the victim of the worst attack on a
0:45
faithful since Joe Marla was banished from the final.
0:48
But who were the other players at the table seeking to banish a
0:51
Wes Streeting challenge? Senior advisers to Keir Starmer
0:55
is all we're getting from the political editors who took the
0:59
calls with all eyes wondering if the top man, Morgan McSweeney,
1:02
had authorised it. Streeting says whoever was
1:05
behind the briefings should be sacked and Lucy Powell was right
1:09
about the toxic culture in Downing St.
1:11
Shabana Mahmoud's team also deny that she's a traitor.
1:14
But the manifesto busting budget is looming.
1:17
Labour is facing horrific poll racings.
1:19
Its MPs are in despair and Nigel Farage is riding high after
1:23
months of torment. Is Keir Starmer now at the fire
1:26
of truth and facing his end game?
1:28
Joining me is the Labour strategist and commentator John
1:31
Mcternan. He was Tony Blair's political
1:33
director, the pollster Scarlett McGuire and the author and
1:36
Guardian columnist Zoe Williams. Thank you all very much for
1:40
joining us, John. This is an extra, an ordinary
1:42
exercise in shooting yourself in the foot.
1:44
I cannot believe it. This is so destructive and it
1:50
comes from #10 So the Prime Minister's got a choice.
1:53
He should sack Wes if he's lost confidence in him, or should
1:56
stack sack whoever authorised or made this briefing or both.
2:01
And if you don't clean out #10 then I think Wes Treaty would be
2:06
advised to resign from the cabinet.
2:08
No confidence from the government, the Prime Minister
2:10
and actually launch a leadership bid.
2:12
This is only going to be resolvable if there is a
2:16
contest, I mean. Did where's Streeting ramp up
2:19
the pressure this morning when he said yes they should be
2:22
sacked and that there is a toxic culture and Downing St.
2:25
Lucy Powell was right all along. I don't believe that any
2:29
staffer, however senior they are, should brief against a
2:34
cabinet minister. Staffers are always junior to
2:38
MPs and ministers and that is a breach of your contract, it's a
2:42
breach of your ethics, it's a breach of your loyalty to the
2:44
political party you're a member of.
2:46
And I think that's the problem here, that once this becomes
2:49
open and clear, there's a choice.
2:51
And the Prime Minister who does find it hard to make choices has
2:55
either either backs his staff or he backs his cabinet minister.
2:58
He's got to choose between the two of them.
3:00
And if he doesn't, it doesn't. If he doesn't, the crisis will
3:04
carry on. And even if he does, the crisis
3:06
is there, it's been revealed. Right.
3:08
But is it enough to sack a middle ranking or even senior
3:14
advisor when it's Morgan McSweeney who runs Downing St.
3:18
He's the chief of staff. He is the architect of this
3:21
government. He's often described as the man
3:23
who actually chose Keir Starmer rather than the other way
3:26
around. Is he the one who needs to go?
3:29
Look, what I think what the party needs is it's an honest
3:35
debate about the direction. The big dividing line in British
3:38
politics at the moment is between people who like to
3:40
reform or the Tories who want to cut public services and Labour
3:44
who won't, and the Greens who've got fanciful ideas about wealth
3:47
taxes. This has got to go back to the
3:49
politics of it. But while it's about
3:51
personalities, either political personalities have a fight and
3:56
sort it out, or the briefers are dealt with.
4:00
OK, well, that, that's, that's John not, not quite wanting to
4:03
call for Morgan Mcsweeney's head by the sound of it.
4:07
Zoe, I mean, you have been, you described yourself, I think, as
4:12
drifting away from labour over a period of time.
4:15
I mean with your head in your hands.
4:18
I mean, listen, I, I, I really feel like we're, we're sort of
4:24
kind of punching in the dark here a little bit.
4:26
The fact is that Morgan McSweeney, you said yourself,
4:30
did he put Kieran? Did he choose Kier rather than
4:34
Kier choosing him? Certainly he was.
4:37
Certainly that was the rumour at the time that Kier became
4:39
leader. But there were also rumours at
4:41
the time that Kier was only ever a placeholder.
4:44
They didn't expect to win the 2024 election.
4:47
He was going to be the placeholder candidate to get the
4:50
left of the party round back, back to the kind of land of
4:54
reality. And then he was going to be
4:56
replaced by where's anyway. These are all rumours, of
4:59
course, but what, what the, the, the point is that when you have
5:04
a small group of people operating as though this party
5:07
is a plaything and the left is a pain that needs to be neutered
5:13
or expelled, and they don't have an actual project, all they have
5:19
is their own thirst for dominance.
5:21
You're you end up in this absurd situation where we're talking as
5:25
though Kieran Weirs are two radically different politicians
5:28
with radically different visions of the future.
5:31
They're not. They look exactly the same.
5:33
The reason they look exactly the same is that they both look very
5:36
technocratic. They they look like, you know,
5:39
robot guys who will just make things work.
5:42
People who say, oh, Wes is much more charismatic than Kia have
5:45
been in Westminster so much too long.
5:48
They don't even understand what words mean anymore.
5:50
We're streeting is not charismatic.
5:52
Kiss Starmer is not charismatic. Nobody in the country is
5:55
thinking, Oh, I can't wait till that absolute charm.
5:59
Where's his impost? So we're, we're we're having
6:03
this, we're conducting this as though there will be a material
6:06
difference between those two leaders.
6:08
We're really all we're watching is the kind of implosion of a
6:11
senior, a kind of the most senior politicians in the
6:15
country not having a plan. Yes.
6:19
I mean not having a plan. I mean, is, is, is the constant
6:24
refrain, isn't it? And they keep trying to suggest
6:28
that they do. But I mean as as somebody, you
6:31
know, on the left, does this make you despair?
6:34
Do you think this is making Labour supporters despair?
6:37
Well, it's funny. It's funny to say that because
6:39
as somebody on the left, I despaired ages ago.
6:41
I mean, basically Keir Starmer made his bid to become leader as
6:47
Corbyn in a suit. That's how he sold himself to
6:49
the left of the party. That's why the members voted for
6:52
him, W Streeting explicitly said in a Guardian interview four
6:57
years ago. Maybe a little less.
7:00
That's how you get round the party.
7:02
You faint to the left and then you go right to get the country.
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I know pollsters say that's the way to do it and this is just
7:08
the kind of political truism, but actually what it's doing is
7:13
completely corroding anybodies belief in the party as something
7:18
that represents them if they have anything like a progressive
7:22
platform. And I'm not talking about
7:23
radical left wing left winger here.
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I'm not talking about communism. I'm talking about something as
7:30
basic as defending refugee rights.
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I'm talking about something as basic as not immediately meeting
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reform halfway, what with their own manoeuvrings, which they've
7:43
done in plain sight without even the scantiest attempt to
7:48
disguise it is basically say the Labour Party is no longer a home
7:53
for people who have left wing views Now.
7:56
Now they can read the consequences any which way they
7:59
want. And I'm always here for
8:01
conversations about, you know, why Kia didn't make more friends
8:04
in the parliamentary party. If he was going to start
8:06
expelling left wing MPs, why didn't he make more friends with
8:09
the centrist MPs? How come W Treating has got such
8:11
a March on him? Why, why couldn't he broker some
8:14
kind of compromise with Angela? You know, I could, we could do
8:17
that conversation forever. But the truth, the truth is if
8:20
the if, if Labour kind of occupies that space of the left
8:25
while cleaving to no left wing principles, they're leaving.
8:29
They're opening up a vacuum that John Mcternan might, might laugh
8:33
at the Green Party all he wants, but somebody will fill the
8:36
vacuum. Right, well, we'll, we'll come
8:38
back to whether John's laughing at the Greens, but let's go to
8:41
Scarlet and break this down a little bit.
8:43
I mean, first of all, how much trouble is Starmer in and is it
8:48
possible to say whether it's a recoverable position?
8:51
Yeah, well, so I actually just want to pick up on something Zoe
8:53
just said about sort of pollsters saying it's the right
8:55
thing to do to, you know, feign one way for the membership and
8:58
then govern and completely another.
8:59
I mean, I'm, I disagree with any poster to say that.
9:03
And I think actually a lot of Starmer's problems and the
9:06
reason why I believe his brand is irrecoverable is because the
9:09
public have completely made-up their mind on Keir Starmer.
9:13
And the number one problem they have with him is a sense that he
9:16
is untrustworthy, that he goes back on what he says and that he
9:19
breaks his promises. And actually an awful lot of
9:21
that stems from when he was in lead of the opposition and when
9:24
he did break a lot of those pledges that he stood to be
9:27
leader of the Labour Party on. And that's been his chronic
9:29
problem with his brand ever since.
9:31
It's why, for example, I think breaking manifesto promises
9:34
around the budget is going to be a politically bad thing for Keir
9:38
Starmer specifically. Even if he says it is Rachel
9:40
Reeves decision, I think it will still reflect very badly on on
9:45
Keir Starmer. But what we see and one of the
9:47
reasons why again I say his brand is irrecoverable, is he is
9:50
now by far the least popular Prime Minister we've had.
9:53
I mean, Liz Truss didn't make it this far.
9:55
And so it's all going to put a slight caveat out there.
9:57
Although it was comparable numbers actually, but worse than
10:00
Rishi Sunak, worse than Boris Johnson.
10:03
And he's only 18 months in after this massive majority.
10:06
And I think the thing that would really worry me if I was in the
10:08
Labour Party about Keir Starmer is that he has no flaw.
10:11
So at the moment he is, unless, sorry, even Jeremy Corbyn is
10:16
less unpopular than Keir Starmer.
10:18
And that's because Jeremy Corbyn, even if you might think
10:21
that his views are unpalatable to the public as a whole,
10:24
although, you know, we we should remember that he got 40% of the
10:27
vote in 2017 under very different circumstances.
10:30
And in fact basically got the same amount of votes that Keir
10:33
Starmer did in 2024 when he led Labour to that crashing defeat
10:36
in 2019. But he remains more popular now
10:40
than Keir Starmer is. And that's because there are
10:42
parts of the public that like what Jeremy Corbyn says, that
10:45
believe he is authentic to what he says and will stick with him
10:48
no matter what. Boris Johnson had a similar
10:50
thing. Many unpopular politicians have
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people that will not desert them because they believe them to be
10:56
authentic, at least to some things and some principles.
10:59
And that is what Keir Starmer is completely lacking.
11:01
And is there any evidence to suggest that anyone else W
11:04
Streeting or Shabana Mahmud or anyone plus in the Labour Party
11:07
would make any difference? There is no evidence actually.
11:10
So I mean it is all Labour figures are pretty unpopular
11:13
with the public. The only one that is in net
11:15
popularity is Andy Burnham. I would suggest that's because
11:18
he's not involved in Westminster politics and I think it's hard
11:21
to maintain positive approval ratings at the moment.
11:23
As soon as you come into contact with Southwest one.
11:26
The public just really, really do not like politicians.
11:29
However, I mean, the only Labour politician that's really more
11:33
unpopular than Keir Starmer with the public is Rachel Reeves.
11:35
So you could say at least there's room potentially for
11:37
someone else to do better. But there is no prints across
11:40
the water. When I do focus groups, there's
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no one saying, oh, it would be fine if only so you used to
11:44
hear, you know, be fine if only Dave, you know, David Miliband
11:47
had won the leadership contest or, you know, even up until
11:49
reasonably recently, people saying they should bring back
11:51
Tony Blair. Or if, you know, doing
11:53
conservatives, they say get back Boris Johnson.
11:55
There is no one that people are focusing.
11:56
It's not W treating. It's not any of the others.
11:59
If you look at the members you get a slightly different
12:00
picture. Ed Miliband is comfortably the
12:02
most popular figure with Labour members, should that come down
12:06
to that, and Angela Rayner also remains very popular.
12:08
But there is no obvious contender that could turn things
12:11
round. But someone might do a better
12:13
job. John I mean, it's hard not to
12:15
conclude that the Labour Party is completely stuffed.
12:21
It's, it's hard not to conclude that the Labour Party needs
12:24
change. And the the reason for that is
12:27
when the Labour Party campaigned for change in the last election,
12:30
you got a huge vote, a landslide, but it failed to say
12:34
clearly and it's failed to act in government clearly to say
12:37
change from what change to what. And that's where I think the
12:42
possibility of a candidate who comes from outside Westminster.
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I said SW one as Scarlett was talking about who does have a
12:49
view of how to change, has experience of changing.
12:52
Someone like Andy's got 10 years of record that he can be judged
12:55
against, does have an opportunity.
12:57
And I've been in pubs across the country with Andy Burnham and
13:01
always there's working class people who want selfies with
13:04
them. That is a huge step up from any
13:07
current Labour cabinet minister. And I think the issue is there's
13:10
a debate about purpose, a debate about change, a debate about
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what the meaning of change is. There's a country and, and, and,
13:16
and it's right. There's always right.
13:17
There's a country out there listening to Zack Polanski,
13:20
listening to joining your party, the Corbyn vehicle.
13:24
There's a country that wants change and it wants change from
13:27
a leftist centre perspective. Labour, and this is what I was
13:30
most outraged at, a briefing that says that the Labour Party
13:34
should put up and shut up and just do what the bond markets
13:38
want. Social Democratic parties manage
13:41
markets they don't obey. Them right, But I mean, you
13:44
know, so if you think Andy Burnham is the best bets or the
13:47
one with the best chance, yeah, the question is when isn't it?
13:50
Because, you know, the the sort of the prevailing wisdom is,
13:53
well, let's see what happens after the budget.
13:56
Let's go into the May elections next year and if it's all the
13:58
disaster then we'll change leader.
14:01
You haven't got that kind of time, have you?
14:03
I mean, no, the the British public will have gone by the
14:06
time you get to to May. So, and I think I suspect Zoe
14:10
and Scarlett agree with the risk of changing leader, which is the
14:13
Tories made a genre of changing leader and did no good for them.
14:17
But I think what number 10 have done is rather than being a
14:20
question of if it's not become a question of when.
14:24
And once you start to go well, when is it best to wait till
14:27
May? Well that's two years into your
14:29
parliamentary term. You've only got 2 years left.
14:32
It'd be crazy to try and take over then.
14:34
So you then you go, OK, before that, would you want to take on
14:37
the defeats? Maybe you shouldn't say that's
14:39
my inheritance. I now build on that.
14:41
And then you go to the budget, the budget knocking around and
14:44
it's in, it's in Scarlet's polling knocking around is the
14:48
worry that and I think backbench Labour MPs must be worried about
14:51
this. What what happens if the Green
14:54
vote overtakes Labour's? What if there's a more popular
14:58
party on the left? Hard for them to get enough
15:00
parliament seats to mean anything.
15:02
But what if there's I'll surpass.
15:04
So what's their moment? It hurt the Tories massively
15:07
when reform went over. I think it won't.
15:09
So I think. So, so you think, go now, do
15:11
you? I, I think, I think the, the
15:14
fire that the starter pistol was fired last night, the breed that
15:19
number 10 declared a leadership election and basically said
15:22
you're all too scared, You're all too scared to do it.
15:25
And The thing is, well, if somebody's saying there should
15:27
be an election, maybe take them at their words.
15:31
They're going, you know, coming up and go, if you're hard
15:33
enough, well, there are quite a few people who are hard enough
15:37
out there. They've got the ambition,
15:39
they've got the desire and the and you're being kicked around
15:42
and, and you've got the Parliamentary Labour Party being
15:45
described as feral. That is disrespectful at the
15:48
very least. And we've got cabinet to be
15:49
briefed against. It's got something's got to
15:51
give. And I think and the calculation
15:53
of #10 is the party will give for what if the party doesn't
15:56
and what if the party shouldn't I?
15:58
Mean, Zoe, I mean the, the number 10 argument and Rachel
16:01
Reeves's argument in the last week has been if I resigned,
16:05
what would happen the next day? You know, the, the cost of
16:07
borrowing would go up, the markets would go mad.
16:10
The economy would be, would be flawed even more than it is now.
16:15
Are you saying just forget about that?
16:19
Don't worry about it. If there's no Prince over the
16:21
water, if Andy Burnham's the only politician in the country
16:25
with a net positive rating and it's at 9%, it's at 9 points,
16:28
which is not very high, but it's higher than everybody else, then
16:32
I'm then I think don't rush it because Andy doesn't even have a
16:35
seat yet, right? So we have anybody who thinks
16:38
that he is the the white knight is going to have to wait until
16:43
he has a until an MP is seated for him.
16:47
But it I this idea. Should we worry about the bond
16:51
market? Well, yeah, I mean, John's right
16:55
that, you know, as a competent government knows what to do,
16:59
doesn't just flail around at the mercy of the bond markets.
17:04
But at the same time, if you look like you're in chaos, if
17:07
you look like you can't get your budget voted through, if, if
17:10
nobody looking at your senior team knows who they're even
17:13
briefing on behalf of. If no if, if the Prime Minister
17:17
doesn't look like he's in charge, then you can wish you
17:21
were in charge of the bond. You were the master of the bond
17:24
markets, but you won't be. Scarlett isn't isn't the trouble
17:26
that, you know, Keir Starmer had a positive racing Once Upon a
17:30
time, so who's to say A that he can't recover it and B that Andy
17:36
Burnham wouldn't lose his positive rating as soon as he's
17:39
actually in power and unable to transform things overnight?
17:44
Yeah, I mean to take a before BI think, can you recover it?
17:47
We've never seen a Prime Minister recover from these
17:49
sorts of ratings. Boris Johnson got slight bounces
17:52
again, having not sunk this low by the way, from things like the
17:56
vaccine roll out and also but isn't.
17:58
History no help now. I mean, you know, we're in
18:00
uncharted waters, so the fact that it hasn't happened before
18:02
doesn't really help us, does it? Well, I think it, I think on
18:06
this one it does because I think it's much harder to recover
18:08
positive ratings than it is to lose them.
18:11
And what we're seeing is just how difficult it is to fight up
18:13
water. Now what again, what I think
18:14
those examples tell us to fight upstreamers.
18:17
And remember, this is when politicians were still slightly
18:19
more trusted than they are now because that has been a
18:21
consistent downward trend. But if you look at someone like
18:24
Boris Johnson, who's the only one who's managed to have that
18:26
balance in recent years, and that was a global pandemic and
18:29
an outbreak of a war on the European continent.
18:31
Now, maybe if one of those two things or something was to
18:35
repeat itself, Keir Starmer could claw something back.
18:38
But are the Labour Party really going to sit around hoping for,
18:40
you know, a sort of catastrophe on either one of those scales to
18:43
happen again? I'm not so sure.
18:44
And even still, is Keir Starmer at least, you know, no matter
18:48
what you think about Boris Johnson, you can think plenty of
18:50
things. I mean, but he was a good
18:53
campaigner and he was better at connecting with the public than
18:56
Keir Starmer, I think has ever been.
18:58
And those, those positive ratings for Keir Starmer were
19:00
very interesting. The public like a winner, the
19:02
public, but when someone looks like they're about to win an
19:05
election, start giving them more of the benefit of the doubt
19:08
because they are actually in some ways relatively optimistic
19:10
about that change That can happen.
19:12
We've even seen that happen with Nigel Farage's ratings.
19:14
But isn't Andy Burnham a serial loser?
19:16
I mean, what? How can he be suddenly when it
19:18
comes to national politics? Well again, This is why I'm
19:21
sceptical that any positive ratings from Andy Burnham and to
19:23
take your point BI am sceptical that they could maintain contact
19:27
with an electorate like this positive ratings.
19:30
Now what? What could be different about
19:32
someone like Andy Burnham, And again, I don't know, because
19:35
what we're seeing is all politicians struggling with this
19:38
is that I think someone like Andy Burnham, or at least
19:41
someone that came across as authentic and principled, will
19:43
probably still have a higher floor, even if that meant they
19:45
ended up in deep underwater territory.
19:47
Because at the moment we're ceding that basically all
19:49
politicians that become well known become deeply unpopular.
19:53
They might have a high, you know, a lower place to fall
19:57
because they could have a safety net of voters that liked them no
20:00
matter what. And that is precisely what Keir
20:02
Starmer is lacking. I mean, I'm, I'm sort of
20:05
surprised that there is so much agreement between the three of
20:07
you, to be honest. But I mean, John, I mean, isn't,
20:09
isn't the problem that if you're, if you argue, well, Andy
20:12
Burnham is the one who's sort of vaguely net positive, so.
20:15
Let's go in that direction, Brandon would be.
20:19
Well, you know what I mean. In terms of John's argument of
20:21
sort of, well, he, he's, he's the only one who isn't looking
20:24
like a loser politically. He takes Labour to the soft
20:29
left. That is not where the country
20:31
was at the election. So.
20:33
You know, so, So what? What is the implication of
20:36
moving the government to the left in terms of Labour's
20:39
ability to survive? That look, that's that, that's a
20:41
really good way of putting it and a good way of thinking about
20:44
it. Andy Burnham did lose 2
20:47
leadership elections. Andy Burnham won every single
20:51
constituency in Greater Manchester last time he stood to
20:54
be the mayor. That's a huge achievement given
20:56
the the the diversity of voters who who are in Greater
20:59
Manchester. And what is the answer to the
21:01
question, is he soft left? Yes he is, but so are the most
21:05
popular policies of the Labour government at the moment.
21:09
The the minimum wage is 2/3 of average earnings.
21:12
Railway nationalization, like Great British Energy being set
21:16
up, Great British nuclear workers rights, renter's rights,
21:19
all the most popular things the government's doing, which the
21:21
government won't talk about a soft left.
21:23
And then look, look at where Nigel Farage is.
21:25
Nigel Farage wants to lift the two child benefit gap which
21:29
Rachel's been against, which Kier's been against, which
21:32
Andy's been in favour of lifting.
21:34
Nigel Farage wants to nationalize British Steel.
21:36
Nigel Farage is cosplaying a soft left Social Democratic
21:40
Party. People obsess about reform being
21:43
he's listening to where working people are, where the red wall
21:46
is and actually a Labour government which was more open
21:50
about, yeah, we're, we are soft left.
21:51
To be honest, we are doing these things which are soft left.
21:54
They're popular. Not only they're popular,
21:56
they're right. And somebody who had more
21:57
swagger about them, more confidence in it would actually,
22:02
I think the compelling thing is you put somebody who believes in
22:04
being soft left in a country that actually quite likes being
22:07
soft left economically. You know how many people in
22:10
Britain, I've been to loads of meetings, public and private and
22:12
business. My view is the Labour government
22:15
should nationalize Thames Water because they're a disgrace.
22:18
This government won't do that because I think nationalization
22:21
is lefty. It's popular and it's popular
22:24
and I think it's this new politics.
22:26
People believe in politicians with values and with records and
22:30
the record. This government is mixed, but
22:33
it's embarrassed about the good things it's done.
22:35
Andy Burnham and other people in the soft left, Angela Rain,
22:38
those candidates would not be embarrassed.
22:40
And the final thing is Andy, like Anna Sarwar, like Sadiq
22:44
Khan was really quick to say ceasefire in Gaza.
22:49
And I think that's got massive residence in a country where 8
22:52
out of 10 people want to ceasefire for such a long time.
22:55
And the Labour government's was seen to be against that for
22:58
whatever it was doing and saying Labour's identified as being
23:01
against. So I think those there are big
23:03
issues out there which can be shaped, but you need a a new
23:07
politics and a new way of doing a new economics.
23:11
I want to identify the problem both of each of you are making,
23:14
John. You're making the problem that
23:16
people respond to shopping list policies and they and they and
23:19
they therefore look at reform and go, oh, reform is a bit like
23:22
Andy Burnham. How come I support Nigel Farage
23:24
when I don't support this or if I support Nigel Farage in
23:27
nationalising this, then I would support Andy Burnham.
23:30
People don't vote on shopping list policies, they vote on
23:33
their vibes. And Nigel Farage is giving off
23:35
hard right racist vibes. And Andy Burnham is giving off
23:38
the guy who has been actually kind of radicalised by the blood
23:43
scandal. Obviously Nigel Farage would
23:45
deny being racist or or even hard right and he's not here to
23:49
defend himself, so we've got to be careful about labels we throw
23:52
around. Fine, fine.
23:56
And Christian, you're acting as though there's these fixed
23:58
points of of soft left. What's soft left?
24:02
What's hard left? What's centrist?
24:04
What's right wing? I just mean to the left of where
24:07
the government was. I know, but did like, you know,
24:10
did the the actual Labour government we're looking at
24:12
doesn't look like even a centrist left, a centre left
24:16
that I would recognise 10, let alone 20 years ago.
24:21
The Tory party does not look anything like a centre right.
24:24
Nigel Farage you say? He would be really upset at
24:26
being called a racist. Reform has deportation policies
24:30
that you would have found on the Flyers of the British National
24:34
Party, the BNP. So we're not talking about an
24:38
we're not when we use these terms like soft left, hard left,
24:42
when we, we just got to be a little bit more forensic.
24:46
I think about what we're talking about because we're we're really
24:49
moving our discussion to the right all.
24:52
The time, but isn't the point that you're both making that
24:54
that actually on on on on economics and on workers rights
24:58
and all the rest of it, Britain and welfare.
25:01
Britain might be movable to the left, but on immigration you're
25:06
all moving to the right. Well, I just think what John was
25:09
saying is absolutely right. However, I did find that you
25:13
it's easy when talking about these things to talk about soft
25:16
left policies that appeal to people.
25:18
Please speak country is quite economically left wing and
25:21
that's been the case for a while.
25:22
And there is certainly mass appeal to things like
25:25
nationalising utilities and, and, and, and although actually
25:30
the pen, the benefit gap doesn't poll the removing it doesn't
25:33
pull that well. But it is difficult to emit the
25:36
issue of immigration. It is now the number one or
25:38
sometimes #2 but it's a dominant concern for voters, including a
25:42
sizeable chunk of Labour voters. And actually, even if, you know,
25:46
Zoe mentioned obviously deportation policies, now it
25:49
could be, you know, it's potentially a bit squeamish to
25:51
talk about, but even a majority of Labour voters back deporting
25:55
people who are in the country illegally.
25:56
Now, none of this is to say that there isn't a leader that could
26:00
be able to try and thread that needle, but it is there to be
26:02
threaded. And I think part of the problem
26:04
is even there was a poll out yesterday actually showed even a
26:07
plurality of Green voters back deporting migrants that are here
26:11
illegally. And so I think the issue is
26:14
going to be that I think you can have a leader that is going to
26:16
appeal to soft left and can be, you know, I think speak much
26:19
more authentically and indeed patriotically about standing up
26:23
to forces they disagree with like things like reform.
26:26
However, I think you actually it's going to be very difficult
26:29
to get the public into a place where they are not still
26:33
demanding reductions in illegal and legal migration and I think
26:37
that is a difficult issue for the next Labour leader, whoever.
26:39
They are, John. I mean, you know, lots of people
26:42
in the Labour Party think it needs to be much tougher on
26:44
immigration. It's likely to get much tougher
26:46
on asylum seekers on Monday. You know, is it ever going to be
26:52
authentically believed by the electorates that a Labour
26:55
government can be, you know, economically progressive and and
27:01
truly tough on immigration? So look the the issue for a
27:05
Labour government on the economy and on migration and on law and
27:09
order is to be considered competent, to be considered in
27:13
control. You will not vote Labour if you
27:17
want the harshest of restrictions on immigration.
27:21
You won't vote Labour if you want the harsh conditions of
27:23
prisons, the longest sentences. But Labour has to acknowledge
27:26
the country wants security, border security, it wants
27:28
security on the streets. And Labour got to realise the
27:32
public are always sceptical about it.
27:34
The thing that we are is in the politics of flux, a politics in
27:37
which there are local and global changes.
27:40
There is migration, there's also climate crisis, there is
27:43
inflation, cost of living, but there's also AI, there's China,
27:49
there's a war in Europe, there's Trump's tariffs.
27:52
There are so many big issues. And it it leaves a space for the
27:54
political entrepreneurs. And where I think that what
27:57
Farage has done is to be able to move in to secure a block of 30%
28:01
of the vote that wouldn't be a dominant block in any other
28:05
time. In politics.
28:07
There's five viable political parties and Labour are one of
28:10
those other four parties, around between fifteen, 2025%.
28:14
Labour's got to find a way to articulate a future vision, one
28:18
that Farage can't do. Labour's more authentic around
28:21
managing the markets around intervening, around being left
28:24
economically. Farage is currently more
28:26
authentic or trusted on. He'll get the job done.
28:29
He's hard headed. Labour is in government, it's
28:31
got to prove it's got the competence plus the humanity
28:35
because people also do want people.
28:37
People believe people who shouldn't be here.
28:40
You, you apply for asylum, you don't get asylum, you need to be
28:43
removed as a working system. They do also believe this
28:46
country, this great country of ours does have a responsibility
28:49
to refugees. We have to share the burden, but
28:50
we have to take some of the burden itself.
28:52
And it's finding the way to tell that story of bringing the
28:55
elements together. And I think my, my, my biggest
28:59
question mark over the way the government's run itself for the
29:01
last 18 months is it's always about process, never about
29:05
purpose. It's always about individual
29:07
technical, technocratic solutions.
29:09
It's never about this is big a big problem requires a big idea.
29:13
It requires a big effort. It requires us all coming
29:16
together. And I think it's you have to
29:18
change the shape, the nature of progressive politics.
29:22
And that is why whoever rises the challenge which has been
29:25
issued by #10 has got to have a new political economy, a new a
29:30
new way of doing politics, a new way of running economy, a new
29:33
way of Britain being in the world.
29:34
Zoe, that's a big demand do. Do you think the left, whether
29:37
it's your party or the Greens, can actually win the argument on
29:41
immigration? Well, OK, I totally do, and I'll
29:44
tell you how we go about winning the argument on immigration.
29:47
First of all, the reason polling numbers are the way they are is
29:50
because it's all anybody talks about.
29:52
The media and the politicians are in some kind of dance of
29:55
death where they won't talk about anything except
29:57
immigration, and they try and kind of game each other to more
30:00
and more extreme positions. All three of you are talking as
30:04
though deportations are only suggested for people who are
30:07
here illegally. That's always been true, that
30:09
people who get refused asylum get deported.
30:12
Nobody's never disagreed with that.
30:13
But we're talking about, you know, reform has ideas about,
30:16
about leave, to remain, about not having.
30:19
People who are here. Legally, yeah, but yeah, if when
30:21
you're here legally the Tories have ideas about not get about
30:25
being deported if you've ever claimed a benefit.
30:27
We're talking about an absolutely febrile environment
30:31
in which obviously then when people are asked what the
30:33
biggest issues are, they always say immigration because that's
30:36
all that the authority ever, ever discussed.
30:39
However, when you ask people what the most important thing to
30:42
them is, is always cost of living, NHS, sometimes a little
30:46
bit of social care if they're in the older brackets, sometimes a
30:50
little bit of crime, especially among women, it's not.
30:53
People aren't saying this issue is salient to them, they're
30:56
responding to the political climate.
30:58
Consequently, every time we say how is the left ever going to
31:02
have a viable policy around immigration when the public
31:05
public's attitudes are really, really hardening, you're just
31:08
this is a self fulfilling fallacy and it and and it's
31:12
really dispiriting to watch. Now, I don't know whether I
31:17
don't know what the greens ultimate landing point on
31:20
immigration is going to be. I don't know how much the late
31:23
Labour is going to surrender to the reform agenda.
31:25
Although I think to borrow Scarlett's Braves, they haven't
31:27
got a floor morally, they'll go anywhere chasing that kind of
31:31
energy. But I do know that it at some
31:36
point there will be there will cut there.
31:38
There is a hardcore of people in Britain who say, look, the
31:41
numbers, migration, migrating, fleeing war are no higher than
31:46
they've ever been throughout history.
31:48
It's about 3%, right? So anything else we can manage.
31:52
And whether or not these, you know, Nigel Farage shows what
31:56
happens when you try and build a project not by amalgamating 25
32:02
views, but by going hard for your core.
32:04
The person who goes hard for the core that will not not talk
32:07
about people as burdens, that will not talk about people as
32:11
illegals, the people who go hard for that core are going to win
32:14
something. Just finally, I mean, Scarlett,
32:18
if you, I mean you've made it clear you think it's, it's
32:20
irrecoverable for Keir Starmer. The question is, is it
32:23
recoverable at all for Labour, you know, before the next
32:28
election, if Labour, how you know what, what are the things
32:31
Labour needs to hit? You know, is it they, they kind
32:34
of assume it's the health service and immigration.
32:36
Are they right in that? Look, it's a very difficult and
32:39
narrow path for Labour, I think, but I think it's a path that
32:43
still plausibly exists. What should they do?
32:46
I think John is right when he says they need to show
32:50
competence on issues whilst potentially not focusing on
32:53
them, right? So like with immigration, I do
32:55
think they're going to need to deliver the sorts of things that
33:00
are looking for. I slightly disagree with Zoe.
33:02
I don't think it's just because people are talking about it.
33:04
Obviously giving things more media oxygen, we'll see an
33:07
impact on how much people think about it.
33:08
But actually, if you look about the concern for immigration, it
33:11
was when it started spiking when immigrants were starting to be
33:16
put up in asylum hotels. And I did notice from focus
33:19
groups at the time that people who said previously they didn't
33:22
think much about that issue felt very differently when they had a
33:24
hotel in their area. So I also do think it is to a
33:27
certain extent what people are seeing or hearing in their local
33:30
communities as well as what what they might be ingesting on the
33:33
news. But putting that to a side, I
33:35
think Labour, I mean look what Labour should have done when
33:37
they got in last time in the 2024 election was to SAT
33:41
straight away, no summer recess, have Parliament working everyday
33:44
to show they were delivering on the nation's priorities and go
33:47
hell for leather on the NHS because that is something that
33:50
they have in their favour. People do not trust the
33:52
Conservatives on the NHS. People do not trust reform on
33:55
the NHS. Lots of voters are worried that
33:57
Nigel Farage might privatize the health service.
33:59
That is something consistently that I hear in my focus groups,
34:02
and you can see this in the data as well.
34:04
It should be a card Labor can play.
34:07
It is one in which they are already making progress, albeit
34:09
slow progress. And that seems to me a very good
34:12
opportunity to keep going and show actual progress.
34:15
Obviously it's a difficult task, but that's what I would do.
34:18
And for what it's worth, you know, I mean been this podcast
34:21
has been fairly critical of Wes Streeting so far.
34:23
But I did think during Labour conference I was listening to
34:26
Wes Streeting on a media round and he was asked to talk about
34:29
the reform indefinite leave to remain policy, much as Kier
34:33
Starmer had. And I thought Wes Streeting's
34:35
reply was naturally one that would carry a lot more weight
34:40
and be more persuasive with the public.
34:41
He straight away framed it as an issue to do with the NHS and to
34:45
do with NHS workers and about treating them fairly and not
34:48
crippling the NHS. And he did it in a way that
34:50
seemed authentic to him, and I just thought that was a much
34:52
better way of taking on reform. Zoe I mean, it's a lost cause
34:57
for you, isn't? It look, this kind of politics
35:01
is a lost cause for me. Yeah.
35:03
I mean, the, the party, the, the party hasn't, the party has kind
35:07
of peeled away from its from its own values without really
35:11
replacing them with anything obvious.
35:12
You know, people like me or even me made a lot when Tony Blair
35:19
came in. But at least they had a project.
35:23
At least they would tell you what it was.
35:25
At least they would fight you about it, right?
35:27
They would air arguments to you and and argue them
35:31
intellectually because they had meaning.
35:34
I just did this this lot. They they they can't bring their
35:37
arguments because they don't have arguments.
35:40
John. Look, I think Labour has a case
35:43
to make. It's got a progressive case to
35:45
make and the the the government stumbles when it doesn't have a
35:48
case. It had no case about cutting to
35:51
simply benefits. It couldn't answer the question,
35:53
had no case to make about cutting winter fuel payments.
35:56
Now we have a situation where #10 have have decided they want
36:03
to provoke a leadership contest. I don't think a leisure contest
36:07
is a great idea or a solution in itself.
36:10
I do think a contest of ideas would be a good thing because
36:13
there's a lot of ferment on the progressive side of politics and
36:15
there's a lot of demands on across all of politics.
36:18
And I don't think that people are settling to be, let's be a
36:21
right wing country. Look at how badly the Tories are
36:24
doing. They do want disruption, they do
36:26
want change. They've voted for change in so
36:29
many ways in the last decade, whether for Brexit, for Corbyn,
36:32
for for Starmer, for Johnson. Labour had to be able to say
36:36
this is the change that we need as a country, this is how we
36:40
will deliver it. We may need new faces and new
36:42
voices to go with new ideas and new policies, but we also need
36:46
to accept we did lose our way the last 18 months.
36:50
I could defend the record because there's many great
36:52
things, but there's something gone wrong and I think
36:56
Scarlett's got it. Scarlett hears it in in our
36:58
focus groups, we lose Scarlett's focus groups, you lose Zoe
37:03
Williams. What is a Labour government
37:04
doing that can't keep working people and can't keep Zoe
37:07
Williams in broad support And what's, what is this government,
37:10
Labour government doing? What's Keir Starmer doing when
37:12
he makes Zoe make the case for Tony Blair?
37:17
On on that note, thank you all very much indeed.
37:20
That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.