Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA First Look | January 15, 2024 | The American Express DraftKings DFS Pricing and Process

Transcript

PGA First Look | January 15, 2024 | The American Express DraftKings DFS Pricing and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
All systems going clear the lift. What's up? Everyone? Tyler Tamberline here
0:38
aka Totagg and Tambau back for our second edition of the First Look Show.
0:43
It is going to literally be the first look anyone can possibly give you.
0:47
I haven't even looked yet because it just came out two seconds ago, two
0:50
minutes ago, whatever it might be. Didn't even get to talk to my
0:53
guy Degenerate before the show to just get into things. But we ran it
0:56
back. We're running it back. We had it on his channel last week.
0:58
We're gonna rotate channel all the way throughout the season, so we'll be
1:02
here talking this every week. This is an annoying week, be honest up
1:06
front because of NFL. So right after this, I'll be live on the
1:07
NFL Show with Who and Title on the Male Media Network with Kenny tonight on
1:11
Fantasy Golf. Just but we're still excited. Got another good tournament cot up.
1:15
We had a great tournament last week, James, my friend. I'll
1:18
bring you in quick little recap of that one. I gotta tell my story.
1:21
But how how was your week? I mean, you know, if
1:23
that cut would have been minus three like we were all hoping, I mean,
1:26
Pat Mayo just willed the power of the gods to make that minus two.
1:29
I had no business being minus two. How guys can't find like guys
1:32
were finding bogies on those easy ass eighteen and nine. It was just so
1:36
lucksack. So that really hurt. But you know, like I don't know,
1:38
you can't always just look at if you won money or lost money on
1:42
a week to week bake basis at pgadfs to determine success. I call that
1:46
being results oriented, which is okay in the long run, but not in
1:49
the short run. So you know, I look at things like how did
1:51
my sleepers perform? Was my six of six rate higher than the field?
1:53
And all those things were yeses, and I was happy. Just another Sunday
1:57
collapse, right, Yeah. Oh did I get the weather right? Yes?
2:00
I did. Yeah, that was annoying. The weather was right,
2:04
for sure. You were on that. I know for a fact. I
2:06
know sleepers. Some of the sleepers you have are really good. Carl.
2:09
Yeah, yeah, that guy. I was just trying to look at my
2:13
PGA results real quick because you just said that. What's funny is even with
2:16
this, I mean even before I was crushing with six of six's in the
2:20
end. So like the pitching Putt, I was in for a thousand,
2:23
I got back eight hundred. For example, for the the eighteen You're your
2:25
favorite tournament, the eighteen entry Max, the one that you created, I
2:30
was in for one eighty, got back four to ten. Like it was
2:31
up down based on those numbers that I had. But if it had been
2:35
a minus three cut, it would have been absolutely insane. I'll tell a
2:38
quick story because some are in the discord with us, some probably aren't whatever,
2:40
but it's crazy how it comes full circle. I posted out today I
2:44
was in King of the Desert, had two seats the PGA version. One
2:46
was dead, that's fine, it was a five or six. The other
2:49
one was one of only I believe it was like ten or twelve lineups total.
2:53
That would have been six to six if the cut was minus three.
2:57
My boy Pat Mayo, our guy is out there willing this thing. I
3:00
know he's gonna say he was just letting the people know it was like him,
3:02
Kenny Kim, all these guys. I'm gonna talk to her the next
3:05
two days, give them shit trying to will this thing in for all their
3:07
two unders, and then everybody's so excited all their six to sixes, but
3:12
it's like the field has it two and that's the problem. So anyway,
3:15
the full circle is this. Joel Damon, obviously everybody knows missed that four
3:19
foot putt, went on Twitter after was like, yeah, you guys all
3:22
owe me like all that stuff. In the end, I needed the great
3:25
The only way I could get in I was in fifty fourth. There was
3:29
four people in front of me that had one of Benny or Keegan, and
3:34
there was one that had both. So I was looked. There was only
3:37
one way to get in. I would have came fifty second, fifty whatever
3:39
it was if one of those other two one Grayson makes the bomb. My
3:43
wife's so excited because she's into this sweat yesterday and I'm like, no,
3:46
no, no. I was like that just guarantees we get the next hole.
3:49
Benny's gonna go up and make this putt from three feet or whatever,
3:52
and I go, you know what, Actually he's gonna miss this putt.
3:53
He's gonna say ah damn and then look away, and next thing you know,
3:57
he just wires it right by and got the job. So it hurt
4:00
others. Sorry for those that lost, but but full circle. One guy
4:02
makes it, the other guy misses it, end up getting through to round
4:05
two. Any anything else you talk about? Oh, I have some thoughts
4:09
on that one. Grayson Murray is not the guy that I want my life
4:12
writing on in a playoff. That's number one and number two. Benny Ann
4:15
had been rolling in every fricking put all day, so it's incredible that's the
4:18
one he missed. But you know what, Tambo runs good. What do
4:20
you want me to say? The guy? The guy, the guy,
4:23
the guy has you know, he runs, He's amazing. That's how it
4:27
goes. Sometimes you have to just now, I can't complain for a long
4:29
time, that's all. And I'll be honest about that and know how it
4:31
all works. I'll get some stuff up here and talk about it. Do
4:34
you want to talk anything quickly? Just about opening up on this tournament?
4:38
Obviously for those who don't know, different stuff that you can bring up,
4:40
the three rounds, all that, those factors. But ending in the beginning
4:43
you want to talk about I mean, yeah, so a lot of people
4:45
because we're really trying. My goal is to try to get more people into
4:47
PGA dfs. I just think it's the best DFS sport out there, right,
4:51
And what I would tell you is, like just the basics is this
4:55
is a three course rotation. We don't see many of these. I think
4:57
there's only one of two tournaments where we see a three course rode and they're
5:00
gonna be playing all three rounds the first three days. So this is one
5:02
of the very rare times we get a fifty four hole cut. That means
5:05
they cut after three rounds as opposed to cutting after two rounds. So the
5:09
cut sweat will actually be Saturday as opposed to Friday this week, and they'll
5:12
only be one post cut round. And these all three of these courses.
5:16
A lot of people are gonna say one course has an edge over the others,
5:19
but what you're really gonna find is that the best players all play the
5:23
stadium course Saturday. Right. They just make it that way every year where
5:27
they play Lakinta, then they played Nicholas Tournament, and then all the good
5:30
players go play the stadium course Saturday and Sunday, which I think is a
5:32
big advantage playing the course that you're gonna play against Saturday on Sunday, that
5:36
you play on Saturday. And you get the quote unquote two easier courses the
5:41
first day to really build your confidence. So you know, it makes Showdown
5:45
really really interesting. But more than that, I think it makes playing your
5:47
lineup construction more interesting because you can get a little more crazy when you really
5:50
only have to sweat your guys missing one round as opposed to two rounds if
5:55
they miss the cut. Yeah. One good question on that too, because
5:57
obviously the show Down hodown your site is up on the screen there DJ seventy
6:00
five dot com. You guys can check that out use promo code ship it
6:03
to get ten percent off. But I'll let you talk more on that in
6:05
a second. But being in the Showdown streets a week like this, I've
6:09
been seeing this forever. I know you talk about it sometimes too. But
6:11
again, just some new people out there watching this so for the first time,
6:13
and thank you, by the way to everybody. Last week, over
6:15
two thousand people tuned in for this first look show Who Wants to Look at
6:18
Golf on a Monday? Remember back in the football in January? Yeah,
6:23
but it was good. We do appreciate that. Lots of likes O there.
6:25
If you guys can do us a favor on this channel, hit that
6:27
like button subscribe to the ship at Nation YouTube station, trying to keep growing
6:30
this thing as fast as we can. But do you notice, like you
6:33
know, everyone says, oh, everybody knows the Edge and Showdown, but
6:36
yet every when there's weather edges, when there's course edges, things like that,
6:40
it's yes, there is people that know it within our bubble, but
6:43
how many people truly know it? I mean, you look at the numbers
6:46
better than I do. Probably behind the scenes too. What's it look like
6:48
from an edge perspective when you see weeks like this? So like everybody thinks,
6:51
oh, of course everybody knows about Showdown. No, like the ten
6:55
percent of the people who are going to be playing Showdown and who listen to
6:58
content. No, let me rephrase that, who listened smart content, Because
7:00
there's a lot of people doing content out there at Showdown. They don't even
7:02
fucking talk about weather, right, which is just crazy. Like the firmness
7:05
of the green wins, the course is going to be able to get nuked
7:08
and when people who have their A plus game are gonna be able to get
7:10
in the best conditions. And so you can just go look at the numbers
7:13
of how many people like it at showdown when there's a clear morning versus afternoon
7:16
edge, and usually only about ten to fifteen percent of people will build their
7:20
lineups in a six to ozh skew, meaning six guys from the morning,
7:24
zero from the afternoon, or vice versa, depending on where the you know
7:28
the edge is, and like that just means there's such a mass, a
7:30
massive edge to be had at that and that that it's not going away.
7:35
And this one is even more unique because all the guys are going to be
7:38
on the course at the same time, and they're going to be playing different
7:41
courses, so you should be playing your strategy different and you should be attacking
7:44
the course that you think is most gettable, although last year all three courses
7:46
were all super gettable. Yeah, that's what I was saying. That can
7:49
happen as well, and we'll talk about when we get the mainsite. Obviously,
7:51
you'll host the best Wednesday night stream that'll be there. I'll be on
7:55
a couple different shows this week. I'll be here with you as I am
7:57
right now. You guys are watching us. I'll be back later this evening
8:00
recording the Fantasy Golf Degenerates with Kenny, where we go a little bit different.
8:03
We'll break it down from actual digging into the tears versus this is really
8:05
just a true first look. I don't even know what the pricing looks like
8:09
yet. And then the other setup is going to be tomorrow. I'm recording
8:11
with Mayo he had he's going a day early again this week, and then
8:15
if things aren't weird enough, next week is actually the Farmers, which starts
8:18
on Wednesday. So we're talking about all these different things and course rotations and
8:22
days back and stuff. Only a few weeks out from the waste management.
8:24
We'll be in Arizona. Talk more on that later, and then i'll be
8:28
back tomorrow afternoon with who on this channel breaking it down with updated ownership everything
8:33
there, but the Wednesday night. Why does Farmers start on Wednesday? This
8:37
is news to me. Why is it pebble or is it? Why would
8:41
they? What's the point football? Yeah, that's why. That's why it's
8:46
the division. The division rounds, so they just don't want to go against
8:50
football on Sunday. What is it? It's the it's the weekend. Oh
8:54
yeah, yeah, sorry, it's the conference championships that weekend. That's why
8:56
Sundays the two best games, which by the way I say this all the
8:58
time, but that is actually I like that. I like those games better
9:03
than the super Bowl. But obviously I like super Bowl weekend because like for
9:07
this, we'll be together people hanging out at parties, having fun, eating
9:09
good, having some drinks, things like that. But I definitely like those
9:11
games, but it's definitely did not compete with the conference championship games on that
9:16
Sunday. That's why. So all right, and that's the Farmers on the
9:18
twenty fourth, which is a Wednesday. Sure shit, look at that.
9:20
Okay, I guess I'll be doing the stream on Tuesday that night that week.
9:24
Fuckdo he's taking I lived life one week at a time, one goalf
9:28
week at a time. Somebody tells me there's other tournaments out there. I
9:31
don't know until this week's over, Bob. Yeah, our guy Nick shout
9:35
out to uncle Nick. Appreciate you man, always talking the good stuff.
9:37
And he says that, And we've been talking about this in chat plenty.
9:41
I'll like you talk about your site in a second. But real quick,
9:43
someone brought it up, like how much was Grayson owned? I saw there.
9:46
This was just another takeaway from last week that you can apply to this
9:48
week where I was trying to bring a few things to the stream, But
9:50
was anyone on Grayson Murray? And if so, do you have any idea
9:54
why it was point zero eight percent? So in the main twenty dollars,
9:58
I calculated out there was about three hundred lineups that did have Grayson Murray.
10:01
None of them were at the top. And so this was a talking piece
10:05
that I brought up again back to what I always say when people are bringing
10:07
it up about oh, I got this diamond in the rough if I just
10:11
play enough of this guy and if he has a great week, I'm gonna
10:13
do well. Three hundred people played Grayson Murray, he won the tournament and
10:18
still wasn't required. The lowest owned guy in the winning lineup was like nine
10:22
percent, Nick Taylor or something like. There was like thirty five thousand people
10:26
in that, right, Yeah, and you said he was point zero eight.
10:30
It's only point one percent, right, I think? So, Okay,
10:33
I'm just is that not thirty? I'm good at math, but I
10:37
feel like I might be doing this wrong. So thirty times point zero eight
10:41
equals Okay, I guess I'm putting this in wrong, or maybe it's point
10:45
zero zero eight, so that'd be I think it's like thirty people had him,
10:48
right, Well, yeah, I'm pretty sure it might have been less.
10:50
It might have been less because one percent of thirty five hundred is three
10:54
fifty and he was one tenth of that, So be one tenth of three
10:58
fifty. Be about thirty to thirty five people, that's right. Yeah,
11:00
sorry, I was thinking there was more people in the tournament for some reason
11:03
too. But it's only thirty five thousand this week, so thirty people and
11:05
the chances that you're gonna hit Grayson Murray and then also have five other pieces
11:09
in there, like, good luck with that, Bob. I mean,
11:11
it was a great play for those guys. I'm not saying it's not.
11:13
But if you're gonna play Grayson Murray, this is why you always want to
11:16
have him. If you're playing twenty lineups and you're gonna play a punt like
11:18
Grayson Murray, have him at least like three or four of those twenty lineups
11:22
so if he does hit, you don't have to have the perfect other five
11:24
guys with him. You give yourself multiple chances to have another good five guys
11:28
with him. This is why you'll never see me play just one guy in
11:31
one of my twenty lineups. I have a rule that if I'm playing twenty,
11:33
I have him in at least four of those twenty. If I'm playing
11:37
one hundred and fifty, I get him in at least eight to ten percent
11:39
of my lineups. Yeah, I had the numbers wrong, but I forgot
11:41
I was in class with the former teacher as well, so he got me
11:43
good. I argue. The point I was actually going with there is not
11:48
just the Grayson Murray one, because whether it was thirty or three fifty in
11:50
any tournament doesn't really matter to me. It's that point of now you have
11:54
to extrapolate that he's the one gem, the one needle in the haystack that
11:58
did find his way to somehow get back and win this tournament. But then
12:01
you go and look at the numbers like sky Hook, Skyhope dfs posts out
12:05
on there on Twitter, and there was like zero point one percent to two
12:11
percent of all kinds of different guys that everybody's just stringing their net out and
12:13
trying to find this one. And then even if you do, it's not
12:16
really gonna be something like that, and that that's the whole point of why
12:20
we're looking at these things and always trying to figure them out. But when
12:22
you start playing the game, like Djen says, or like Nick just brought
12:24
up, and not worry about who would even it like, play the game,
12:28
don't worry about the plays and the numbers and all that stuff. You
12:31
have to actually be able to have something that can get to the top.
12:33
And that's the way in the main winning lineup in the two one thousand,
12:35
it really had all to do with roster construction. I think the lowest owned
12:39
guy was almost ten percent because it was a heavy chalk filled week, So
12:43
just keep that in mind. On top of it. So, I think
12:46
this is the thing. I've got him on numbers multiple times on NFL shows,
12:48
Nick this is and he says he's not the numbers guy. He's like
12:52
a history English teacher or something. He told me and that's why. And
12:54
then he figured out the numbers today. So that's fine. I digress.
12:58
We move on, James, tell them a little bit about your site before
13:01
we move on to this tournament and breaking down the first slip pricing. I
13:03
mean, I just I have the you know, over my site, there's
13:07
just nobody who goes harder. I have my own weather guy. We but
13:09
out weather. I definitely have the best ownership and all of the industry.
13:11
My projections are unique. I'm not copying somebody else's. I make mine,
13:15
and I factor in things more than just like long term form like everybody else's
13:18
projections. But most importantly, I have the Resetta Stone, which is a
13:22
way for you to look at all these numbers that these data sites give you
13:24
and put them into a useful manner to actually see what matters for both week
13:28
long and for showdowns. So if you don't have eighty hours a week to
13:31
be a sweaty loser, try hard like me. But you still want to
13:33
make informed decisions, you do it, and I try to do it and
13:37
make a competitive price. All these toa sites out there gouging people at one
13:39
hundred dollars a month for golf and shit like that makes me want to punch
13:41
a wall. So I try to offer a better product than them. For
13:45
cheaper golf is just thirty four to ninety nine. I'm telling you you're gonna
13:48
want to lock that in if you want all myself, we have fifty four
13:50
ninety nine. And if you want that big guy where we meet every before
13:52
every slate I meet and I have a chat with all of them. That's
13:54
one hundred dollars a month because that's like my most premium thing, Like we
13:58
literally get on there and chat about our strat my process, and that is
14:01
going away. Come the waste management. It's just getting too full and it's
14:03
getting impossible to keep up with asking about your weather guid's qualifications. So far,
14:09
so good from everything that I've seen and pegged it both weeks, I
14:13
believe already. He literally has been doing weather for the Navy for the past
14:18
twenty years. What does he do for a living? He does weather,
14:20
That's what he does. That's right, So real quick, we'll go to
14:22
a ship it Nation just so you guys know we are on the channel here,
14:24
but we have to bring this up because it is the last week that
14:28
you can double down on the golf package. We just posted it out on
14:31
x all the success of the members that we could find, and then there's
14:33
a bunch more in the discord. But with the PGA only packages. When
14:37
you go to shiptnation dot com you click this option right now you can set
14:39
it up here. These introductory prices are going away. It tells you right
14:43
here what they're going up to this year. Last chance to get it get
14:46
in at these prices. You can use the code djen if you want to
14:50
get ten percent off to get set up there as well. So leave that
14:54
as that is. Go back to it here. Let's do our first look
14:58
here. We'll talk about them to move this stuff around and see how much.
15:01
Okay, someone else said this too. Were you surprised with how strong
15:05
this field was for the for the amex man. Honestly, I thought it
15:09
was a signature event. I just assumed this was a signature event with all
15:11
these people here, but it's not. So. I guess it just kind
15:13
of found that sweet spot in the schedule because we know these golfers don't like
15:18
to stack four or five six events in a row. You know, they
15:20
play in their breaks, you know, like I hate when people say,
15:22
like, you don't get tired from golf, mother, you go play competitive
15:26
golf four days in a row, and tell me your ass isn't mentally and
15:28
physically exhausted. So like they need to build these breaks in. I think
15:31
that this just found the goldilocks part of the schedule and we ended up getting
15:35
a lot more stars here than we were anticipating. Yeah, we'll give you
15:37
your wish. But that's it. It's right now putting it on the screen
15:41
and saying we will not be talking about or I will not be talking about
15:43
this guy ever. Don't care. We'll move on. But that's the note
15:46
on Michael Block. The other thing, too, is just back to that.
15:50
I saw Michael Kim, who's been pretty cool on Twitter at least,
15:52
posting these threads out and met chig stuff. He did one for the sony
15:56
and he was talking a little bit about that stuff as well, and then
15:58
he also mentioned that much like regular gyms in all of North America, it's
16:03
very busy in the gym this time of year, he said, but by
16:06
the time we get to John Deere, it will not be very busy.
16:08
And it was just so nonchalant how he threw that out there, but it
16:11
is so true. Right, it's the beginning of the year. Everybody's got
16:14
their stuff going on, getting back into the gym, getting healthy, getting
16:17
fit, getting in shape. So should note that Michael Kim and Bennie Am
16:21
for all of you PGA DFS guys that don't really follow golfers, those are
16:22
probably the two best Twitter follow golfers that like at least will engage a little
16:26
bit with the DFS community and give out relevant information at least in my opinion,
16:32
And he goes and he goes. I thought, or it's something like
16:33
I thought Joel Damon was a good guy. That is now confirmed because I
16:37
believe he was one of the guys also at two under that helped him,
16:40
you know. And the worst one is that guy didn't even do shit over
16:41
the weekends. I think he finished like three away from dead fucking last.
16:45
So thanks, thanks Joel. How long I mean, we've been playing this
16:48
game forever, but that there was two things that were certain. Joel Damon
16:51
would do nothing over the weekend after doing that, and guys like Spenson would
16:55
just go nuclear and go off. And he had like two eagles in the
16:57
last round. Everything that happened, I was playing him like crazy in Showdown
17:02
on Saturday and Sunday the minute it's happened, because if you weren't playing Eric
17:04
Cole and Adams Fenson Saturday for Showdown, you don't know these streets at Connors
17:08
like you just know when those when dickheads like that one donkey Chuck lucks into
17:12
the into the cut. They always go nuke. Just know this is just
17:15
an experience thing. I'll die on that hill. So we do have a
17:19
good field here. I've got the pricing up on my other monitor here,
17:22
just so I can go through it. You get you so surprise you and
17:25
hit you off guard. But Scotty Scheffler most expensive obviously, but we got
17:29
Scotty Xander can't lay Sung Jay and Tom oh I guess so Jay rounds know
17:33
Tompkins in the other what's your what's your thoughts there? Can we put it
17:37
on the screen to see I don't have it on the screen, No,
17:40
I gotcha? Okay, so right up top four. Okay, it's first
17:42
of all, it's very nice to have guys back over ten thousand, five
17:45
hundred, right like last week. Last week with old Iceberg going being at
17:48
ten thousand, five hundred, I thought pricing was too soft. And now
17:52
you know when now when you play can't le Xander's Scheffler, like you're making
17:55
a commitment to those guys when you get to the high tens and the lower
17:57
elevens, like that does impact what you can do with the rest of your
18:00
line up pretty dramatically. So I like to see that. I will tell
18:03
you initially, one of those four is not like the other. Sung J
18:06
being up at five figures seems a bit steep. Yeah, I think a
18:08
lot of people are gonna run off what we saw last time, right,
18:11
So you saw him have the good outing there. The conversation around which did
18:15
come up we brought up on the first look, and then King you know,
18:17
I started going with it from there. This fact that him and him
18:21
and See Wu got the gold medal at the Asian Games. A lot of
18:23
people are talking about that. We're kind of let the sweat out their back.
18:26
They're good to role now they don't have to worry about that anymore,
18:29
and now they're playing more free. There was notes too, like obviously Sung
18:32
J had the record right last tournament out that he played for birdies. So
18:36
I think that's where people are going with it. But it's interesting, how
18:38
do you think his ownership comes in Because he's not best by pricing, you're
18:41
definitely paying a little bit more. There is no sale. It's ten ninety
18:45
nine. Best by pricing almost certainly tells me Tom Kim will be higher on
18:49
than Sung J. Right just because they see ninety nine hundred. Oh,
18:52
I get to start in the four figures because this is such a weird thing
18:55
that people are Like, one's if I just fade all the ting k plus
18:56
guys, And my thought is always, how is that any different than fading
19:00
the ninety seven hundred plus guys? Right? Like why do we always use
19:03
ten thousand of this magic line of delineation? Right? And so to me,
19:07
I think that people literally do think that, like somehow that five figure
19:11
is some weird threshold that you should consider more differently than you should any other
19:14
random number. And I think that you will see people get off of sung
19:17
Ja because he's right above that, and get on Tom Kim because he's right
19:19
below that. Yeah, and history wise too like that. You know,
19:22
obviously people were gonna look back at last year where Tom Kim came sixth,
19:26
So we'll get to that range in the second one. Scotty Scheffler up top
19:30
compared to the bros Xanderschoffle and Patrick cantlay any take on those three first of
19:36
all, like, let's not forget everybody. This is the contest where John
19:38
Ramsy just fucking put in contract I bitch about everything, and then uh,
19:42
yeah, you know, well guess such a whiny bitch. I don't get
19:45
why people like him anyways, I digress. Yeah, like, is Scotty,
19:48
like, can we trust this putter again? Because you know, like
19:51
when he was first coming up, I remember always thinking this guy is like
19:53
Jordan Speith. No one makes more twenty foot miracle putts than this guy.
19:57
Right, But then like every since he's become the tee to green God that
20:00
he is now, it's like he kind of has become kind of an asshole
20:03
putter. But it's like the last few times when we've seen him, it
20:06
seems like he might have got something figured out, and a Scotty Scheffler is
20:08
going to put just even slightly above average. He's just night and day better
20:14
than the rest of these guys. I want him at tough courses, I
20:15
want him at easy courses. I want him at medium courses, and I'll
20:18
pay the premium for it if I just know that his putter will be slightly
20:21
above average. Yeah, And I guess that was kind of the take from
20:23
last time too. I always like Scotty. I don't really care again if
20:26
he find there was what seven tournaments last year that he probably could have won
20:29
where it just came down to that, and we always say that, but
20:32
again it also matters what others do around him. I do still trust him
20:34
more while you've got Xander and can't land some of these results here, like
20:37
I do still trust Scotty Moore. So I would like Scotty and m as
20:41
my early first look, just looking at it the way it is and leave
20:44
those two guys out of it. But I know that people are gonna love
20:47
to play all these guys up here, so I do expect ownership to get
20:48
pretty spread out and then can't like just to or sorry, I'm sung Jay
20:52
to be a little bit lower on because he's gonna get squeezed by can't Lexander,
20:56
Scotty or dropping down to this next range, you know, and gonna
21:00
have two rounds at minus eight though, it's just gonna be what does he
21:02
do with those other two rounds. He'll go nute two of the four rounds,
21:04
I promise. Yeah, that's just what Xander do. That is what
21:07
he does in last year, third year as well, So he's gonna be
21:10
another guy that gets talcked up and ten nine just that slight savings from that.
21:14
I also remember too, I think Scotty had one really bad round with
21:17
the putter last time out too. That's gonna still get brought up by some
21:19
and be thought about of, Okay, well maybe it's not back and you
21:23
could just fade him and drop down to Xander. So I do think you're
21:26
right. Probably Xander has that ownership there. I think you nailed it in
21:29
this next range, or go to the nine k's Chris Kirk at nine K
21:32
up to Tom Kim at ninety nine hundred. Tell us what you see here
21:34
some of the guys that stand out, and then you already mentioned with Tom
21:37
Kim. I think that's gonna be an extremely popular play this week. He's
21:41
twenty eight to one, thirty one, thirty to one in some places,
21:44
so I saw people betting that this morning already as well. Yeah, I
21:45
think I think Tom Kim and it's probably almost certainly going to be the highest
21:51
owned guy in this range. You know, the air in my lung in
21:53
this range, it's just seeing Justin Thomas and Jason Day back up in the
21:56
upper nines. Life is so good. I love fading those Don dicks when
22:00
they're overpriced because people play him and I like, I just I need it
22:03
Like when JT was like seventy eight hundred, it was getting hard to fade
22:06
him, right because I know his long term talent justified a bigger price tag.
22:08
But now these backup to ninety on Hunred, people are still going to
22:11
play him. To me, the big thing here is like guys like Tony
22:14
fenw and Ricky Fowler are just like objectively better golfers than like JT Posting,
22:19
Yet they're all like at the exact same salary range. So are people going
22:22
to ride more of the hot hand with JT Posting or are they going to
22:26
ride the long term Who's a better golfer Ricky or Tony. That's what really
22:29
stands out to me. Are you wanting to go hot hands or you wanting
22:30
to go long term talent here? And I don't know what I'm going with
22:33
yet. Yeah. The other thing too is like few used to be the
22:37
guy that would always just get that last minute ownership bump, and it kind
22:40
of has slowed down on that. From everything that I've seen over the last
22:41
year, year and a half, it's turned into other guys now right now
22:45
we'll see it with certain guys like Thigala or whoever. The other sweetheart or
22:48
darling is if you want to call it. But with feenw you haven't really
22:51
seen it. So what we see his ownership? I know you grind ownership
22:53
harder than anybody out there. When I see that on Wednesday and get us
22:56
sort of final look and we'll have our ownership pump as well wordship in nation.
23:00
But like that's one where I used to give a bit of a bump
23:03
to him. I've stopped doing that because I just don't see it landing on
23:07
him anymore. And it is interesting, But I do think he got to
23:08
think posting hot round on Sunday, everything he had going, you gotta think
23:12
some of that carries over to some ownership here. I really do wonder though,
23:17
if people go to like, how do they go to Minmu. People
23:19
know he's a talent now and they've been watching him and it's been awesome,
23:22
but do they really plan him at ninety five? It looks like ninety five
23:26
to ninety eight hundred, even ninety four because I think people are done with
23:29
Sam Burns. Yeah that's a weird overpricing, isn't it? Like Sam Burns
23:33
at ninety four hundred? But did I miss something? Did he win a
23:34
tournament in another part of the world or something eleventh there last year. I
23:37
guess maybe that's why. But I do think it's certain to me, at
23:41
least as of right now, that Tom Kim dropping down to probably posting,
23:45
but obviously Feno and Fowler maybe Kirk would be those secondary options for ownership in
23:51
there. And it looks like early on at least ninety four to ninety six,
23:56
I can't see a lot of ownership going there, but JT could get
23:59
boosted up because like and people will always talk about him, and I saw
24:02
people betting him already at twenty five to one and different places like that.
24:04
People will be off Kirk too, right, Like he came in, he
24:07
carried over a lot of momentum from the century getting ownership last week at the
24:11
Sony, right, we don't normally see that winners for whatever reason tend to
24:15
get really low ownership. And he was doing everybody well and then Sunday he
24:18
just kind of sucked Donkey Dick. So I think people are probably thinking,
24:21
you know, maybe he's worn down. I don't know, maybe he needs
24:22
a drink. I don't know, But like he I think people are off
24:26
him. Someone just asked that because the sobriety that we've seen this last two
24:30
winners, right, both those winners, Grayson said, eight months now sober.
24:33
And obviously Chris Kirk's been battling a lot and then got through it and
24:37
he's on his journey now. So he's sober and got his win the week
24:38
before. But it's tough to say first and an eighteenth and then comes in
24:42
here off a third last year, So I don't know. Maybe Kirk could
24:45
still pick up some. But what I do notice for sure, at least
24:48
early on, it looks like that ninety three to maybe even with Tony there,
24:52
ninety three to ninety six or ninety eight looks overlooked completely. It'll be
24:56
Tom Kim probably getting the ownership up there. I hope you're to at Cheppie
25:00
barn Rats in here, cause I think that guy's had a couple drinks in
25:03
his day, so maybe he can fit our we need drinkers narrative. No
25:06
he's not. He didn't make it to this one. Interestingly enough, eighty
25:10
nine hundred, the Best Buy version of the eight K's, kicks off with
25:14
the It's been going on for a little while now, but today it looks
25:15
like it's even closer to happening. Is the Wyndham Clark to live rumor.
25:19
It looks like he's gonna join John Ram's team there with a young player up
25:23
and comer, Caleb Surrett, and then the other Surrat. I forget how
25:26
people call it, but he was a really good talent. You can watch
25:29
him out there playing in the USAM stuff like that. You can see him
25:30
in and Wyndham Clark is eighty nine hundred here drops down to Daniel Berger coming
25:37
back at eight K making his debut, coming back to the tour at eight
25:41
thousand dollars down there, but you've got Wyndham Clark down to Burger. You
25:45
can see the eight range. What are you doing in there? I mean,
25:47
first of all, I think this range I don't really No one's really
25:49
jumping off the page of me here, but I do think this area is
25:52
going to be popular just by Rosser construction. I think that people are almost
25:55
certainly going to want to play one of those tink guys. And I think
25:59
that we already said that a lot of those nine K guys are gonna get
26:00
skipped. So this is gonna be a natural landing point for a lot of
26:03
people to get the second, third, or maybe fourth guy into their lineups
26:06
in this range. First of all, Wyndam Clark at eighty nine hundred.
26:08
I like Wyndham Clark at tougher courses, so like that, you know,
26:11
at a Birdie Fest, I agree, he will have won maybe two great
26:15
rounds, but he just he never puts four rounds together at a Bertie Fest.
26:18
For me, when I think of a Bertie Fest, Donkey Dick,
26:21
give me old Eric Cole, you know, like he's just an absolute Birdiefest
26:26
kind of guy. Adam had one batilla. Those are all Berti Fest kind
26:30
of guys. But to me, guys like Shane Lowry, like what like
26:32
have you? Could you? I've never can vigiliz Shane Lowry winning a tournament
26:34
at minus twenty. Maybe he has, but in my perception of a guy
26:37
like Shane Lowry, he just doesn't nuke like that. Right, Well,
26:41
I agree, And also I don't remember a time too often besides maybe the
26:45
year he won the Open Championship where it was like I didn't play Lowry and
26:49
it just burned me. I just don't That's what I can't remember in my
26:52
head where it was like damn he crushed. I mean there was other drums.
26:56
I think it was like Canadian Open one year that he showed up and
26:57
did all right and stuff like that. So I know there is opportunities in
27:00
there, but Eric Cole has to be popular in this range. There was
27:03
even a stat Underdog posted it out today Underdog PGA or whatever Underdog Golf I
27:07
think it is. It was posting out about your guy Iceberg in the in
27:11
the swing season versus Eric Cole, and Eric Cole has just been dusting everybody,
27:15
right. He does it again this past week, so it's a you
27:18
know, fourteenth and a thirteenth are his Hawaii showings, not too bad,
27:22
and it might have been him in Hawaii versus Iceberg. I can't remember the
27:26
exact stat, but it was definitely funny just to see it that way.
27:27
You mean, eric Cole finished fourteenth and miss cut. Just put a little
27:30
aster by that misscut because he was one of those lucky donkeys that got in
27:33
at minus two. You just knew he was going off. Like you said,
27:36
as soon as you see that happens, it does, Sea Wu.
27:38
I don't know, like, let me get your take on this, Sea
27:41
Wu. Cam Davis and ox Shay. Those are three guys that were involved
27:45
and weren't and you know, had their ups and downs that can still work
27:49
in three guaranteed rounds. But we still got to get him to that fourth
27:52
one here, right, So what's your thoughts on those three if you had
27:55
to just sort of talk through them. I was watching Sea Wu closely last
27:57
week. I had a lot of exposure to him, especially in some of
28:00
my better lineups, and I was watching his shots, and there's good Sea
28:03
Woo and there's bad Sea Wou, right, and like more you know him
28:06
and Hud Decky probably more than any two players. There's good and bad.
28:08
And it was good Sea Wou last week. He was playing like well,
28:11
he wasn't doing Captain's slump of shoulders all the time on every shot, and
28:15
he just didn't wasn't making any putts. I mean, the guy was like
28:18
hitting fairways, hitting greens all day, just didn't make putts and it was
28:22
getting a little frustrating. But I will tell you, when Sea Wo's in
28:25
a good mental place, he legit has like ninety five hundred dollars like salary
28:29
upside, so you might be getting a good price discount on him. But
28:32
there's also a chance it's gonna be bad Sea Wou, and he's like a
28:34
sixty five hundred dollars player, So I would just say if it carries over,
28:38
I believe he'll be good Sea Woo again. But it's also Sea Wou.
28:41
He's volatile, ast shit know what you're signing up for, which makes
28:44
it tricky when you're talking about, you know, the high volatilities. Fine,
28:48
we're used to that in golf, but when you're talking about a guy
28:49
with that at eighty six hundred, you do have to start thinking about just
28:52
a little bit more because, like I say, if you do get the
28:55
other side of that, the other thing is you gotta think he at least
28:57
comes in with some hip. Obviously, his history here very strong, winning
29:02
it three years ago, eleventh and a twenty second. And then also he
29:06
is coming in off of a decent showing last week. It's still you know,
29:07
sort of fell apart on the weekend, but he was fine before that
29:11
and people were seeing him as his stats were good. He was locked in
29:14
there, so I would think he could still pick up some So Cole see
29:17
Wu Kim would be guys that stand out here, And then I think the
29:18
you know Puttnham being at eight K, Taylor Montgomery, those are the other
29:22
two. Probably Puttnam that carries over he got. Just to give you an
29:26
idea, I was calling this all week, but he ended up being fifty
29:29
five percent in the King of the Desert. He was there way, he
29:33
was way up there. In other tournaments people played him and Spencing together.
29:37
I know you and I were talking on Sunday about Showdown slates and stuff.
29:40
We were just texting back and forth. It's just funny to see people just
29:42
jam ninety percent, ninety percent, fifty percent, sixty percent is like wow,
29:45
a nice lineup, like really good leverage there. So that was the
29:49
case with Putnham that last week. Could you see that carrying over because it
29:52
was another good Sunday round. I just find it amazing that it was like
29:56
just two weeks ago, like Putnam was like sixty eight hundred dollars, nobody
29:59
wants to play. Now it's eight thousand, and he's gonna be chalk.
30:00
I don't know. I just I just I'm not a buyer. I mean,
30:04
the guy ended up doing well last week almost carried me to a Sunday
30:07
win at Showdown. Because if you didn't see that Donkey did going nuke.
30:11
You don't know a showdown like I just at some point, like Kim Taylor
30:15
Montgomery, these guys are getting overpriced for how good of players they are.
30:18
And then if I also have to pay an ownership premium on them, I'm
30:21
out like a fat kid in Dodgeball. Yeah. And I also remember too,
30:23
you were on I can't remember which round it was for your stream,
30:26
but you were talking about it being an upside down world or whatever. And
30:30
hyl Montgomery, Yeah, the guy was ball striking but not putting. It's
30:33
like, Wow, what's it gonna be here? So I guess that would
30:36
be one thing I would say that's kind of interesting, is he's eighty one
30:38
hundred. You have to think Putnam. I mean maybe people take shots on
30:42
Berger. I don't know, but definitely Steven Yager when we get there in
30:45
a second Zaladorus like this upper seven k range, I can already see it.
30:48
I'm just looking for the first time. But first two guys that pop
30:51
up, Yagger Zalatorus and don't worry your guy Dumpy Bow right behind him.
30:56
So people love playing those guys, They're gonna love playing Puttnam. I think
30:59
you could see Monk Ggomery be okay there, and if it's gonna be a
31:03
putting contest, you should like Taylor Montgomery. I don't even think he put
31:06
it very well last week either, but long term I do think he is
31:08
with Denny would drawing from this, I think he is almost definitively the best
31:11
putter in this field long term, and almost treat it like a showdown slate
31:15
from last week. Hey, we saw he was well, striking well,
31:18
not making putts. We know what his talent is and now here it's a
31:21
fair price. He's less than your average price tag with potential chalk pieces around
31:25
him that you could pivot from. Again, we don't know where ownership is
31:26
gonna end up till later in the week, but just to look at it
31:30
for now, we'll see what course they start on. There's any edges that
31:32
way. We'll talk about all that and more throughout the week on all the
31:34
different shows that we're doing. But first look good to see this range.
31:37
James looks pretty popular. Man Yager Zala Taurus seventy nine hundred. I saw
31:41
you could bet him at one hundred to one today when it first came out
31:45
with the odds. I think it's dropped some from there, Hostler Pendrith,
31:48
there's a lot of guys in here to talk about. So talking about this
31:52
upper range seventy five hundred up to seventy nine. Yeah, So, first
31:55
of all, will Baranasaurus, because he's got that long neck like a baranasaurus
31:59
up. Here's what I can tell you about him. First of all,
32:00
he's going to be fine. He will be back one day. I just
32:02
don't think he's there yet, and I'm not trying to be early to that
32:06
party. Furthermore, if there is a dude that I want a tough course
32:08
and not at a putting contest, it's a Willy z Oh, Willie baronosorso,
32:13
like he's a hard out for me. I know that you will get
32:15
incredible leverage on and he'll probably come in sub five percent again and just on
32:19
sheer talent. That's embarrassing. I just can't get over the fact that I
32:22
think he's still messed up and he's just not confident with his game yet.
32:24
To me, I want guys who can get a little roasty with the putter,
32:29
right, and like, there are some dudes in this range that can
32:30
get Rubu toasty with a putter. First of all, Dumpy Bow, and
32:35
I think he's a little over priced. Seventy eight hundred seems a little high
32:37
for Dumpy Bow in this field, and so I think you're probably gonna get
32:40
him a reasonable ownership. I don't know. I guess we'll have to see
32:43
what the projections look like. But he's the one dude really standing out to
32:45
me. Taylor Pendrith was surprisingly decent last week, but a lot of these
32:49
guys have pretty questionable putters, and I don't know that there's a lot of
32:52
dudes in this range that I want to try. And last I saw no
32:54
weather in the forecast, So I don't know that Aaron Rye wearing two gloves
32:58
is gonna give him a big edge this week. He was a bad letdown
33:00
over the weekend too. I only the thing about him was he he got
33:05
he did his job and got to the three under maybe more, I can't
33:07
remember what he was through. And the guys that were getting left behind were
33:12
Spencing and Putnam or no, Putnam was ahead him. Two Spenson, Yeah,
33:16
Spencing, Cole Conners. There was a ton of them. Yeah,
33:19
Spenson was in the same price Rangels, so if you didn't play the double
33:22
chock that I was trying to leverage that because he was on my King of
33:23
the Desert lineup and he let me down over the weekend. But the interesting
33:28
part is usually when he has two good rounds, the weekend's actually okay out
33:30
of him. Regardless of course, we monitored that quite heavily last year,
33:34
so I hear where you're coming from there. Somebody tagged Mayo and I we
33:37
had a small discussion on the Tuesday show where I just brought up the point.
33:39
I aloud said when we were talking about Nick Taylor versus Taylor Pendrith two
33:45
Canadians, two Taylors, which is gonna be? And I said the comment,
33:49
It's how this usually works is we talk about which one it's gonna be,
33:52
and it ends up being both. He tags the lineup, it ends
33:55
up being both, and he wins twenty five K with it or something.
33:58
So congrats to them. That was to see, but it's just the way
34:00
it goes. I'm wondering if this actually comes true, like you mentioned,
34:04
but if like Xalatorus and Hostler do come and lower owned, that would be
34:07
more interesting. I know what you said about Zalator's I watched an interview last
34:10
week with him and he says he's fine. Obviously he's gonna say what he
34:15
has to say, but as you know, it stands he did not look
34:17
fine. So that's kind of the problem there. I'm always a guy that
34:21
plays bo Hostler. I know you're not, but I usually play him.
34:23
I usually play Yager. I'll have to see where this week's week takes me.
34:28
How did Keith Mitchell end up finishing up last week? Because he was
34:30
one that I went back and forth on last week ended up getting him in
34:34
the five dollars with like thirtieth he got thirtieth, Yeah, one hundred and
34:37
fifty, am and me I liked him because like he's more of a boom
34:39
bust play and he still fits that same mold here gets three rounds, but
34:43
at seventy seven hundred could go overlooked here. I think he would be an
34:45
interesting option. And then Shank Hogi you usually like Hogi too, so Shank
34:51
Hoge guys that can make birdies. And then what about a Matt Kocher bounce
34:54
back after letting everybody down. I liked Matt Coocher so much last week,
34:59
Like I was in on that fifty year old dad bod and man, he
35:02
just like did not. I mean, he was great round one and then
35:06
I don't know what happened round two. Like it was like it was,
35:08
it was bad. It was just really bad golf. But I you know,
35:10
if I've learned anything, Matt Kocher fucked me real good last week,
35:15
and if I fade him this week, he's gonna fuck me again. So
35:16
I'm not gonna let him do it two weeks in a row. Going right
35:19
back to that donkey dick. Yeah, I think that's definitely a possibility here,
35:22
and he's at seventy five hundred. The aforementioned Nick Taylor. Is there
35:25
some of these other guys anybody else in that upper seven k range you want
35:30
to mention? If not, you can take us into the lower seven k
35:31
tier here for the first look. Yeah, I mean that upper seven range
35:35
is not doing it for me. I think, you know, like a
35:37
lot of those guys there are good golfers, but they're guys that I like
35:39
get those more difficult and medium range courses. Like Aaron Ryan is a dude.
35:43
I just don't ever see getting to minus four minus twenty four. Oh,
35:45
he'll get to minus four, but he's not gonna get to minus twenty
35:49
four win this. And if I'm playing a guy in the upper seventh,
35:52
I at least need them to have the upside to win the tournament. And
35:53
I just don't think that's the style of the tournament. I think a guy
35:55
like Nick Taylor has a better chance of winning this tournament than Aaron Raye,
35:59
But I think Aaron Rye probably has a better, like medium projection than him.
36:04
So getting done here to the lower seven k's, I'm I'm just looking
36:07
for guys that can go nuclear hot. Don't sleep on old kh Lee.
36:09
He was getting a little warmed up. And if you don't know, k
36:12
shleep can get a ruberal hot at golf. So he's a dude that jumps
36:15
out. Sam Ryder is a dude that can get roasty roasty hot. You
36:20
know, I don't know that I want to chase Sam Stevens and Pavaan and
36:22
all of that, But Michael Kim was a dude I was tracking all last
36:25
week, was playing sneaky sneaky well and we've already seen I mean, he's
36:30
won the John Deere at like what minus twenty six or something. So a
36:32
guy that can get nuclear hot on these courses. Yeah, Michael Kim is
36:37
trying to follow the footsteps of Max Homer. I believe become like the nice
36:40
guy on Twitter that everybody likes that starts helping people out and having fun with
36:45
things on there, then get good and then start doing more and the chat.
36:49
I gotta talk to them real quick. Like Rian my boy hashtag Shepherd
36:52
is in the disc all time. I'm not joining you like he didn't do
36:54
anything for him fifty second, twenty second, thirty second. We don't just
36:59
play guys to make I think that's a misconception as well. I'd rather take
37:01
the guys around him when he won back ten weeks ago. Now, yeah,
37:05
you had to have him, But I stick to this motto always never.
37:08
You can't spell never without EVR. I'll play him, like Nick says
37:13
in Showdown, that's how you get that's how you make money with EVR.
37:15
You use them in round three, round four, something like that. The
37:19
guy is usually a great spot to play it out. Did you see that
37:22
guy's Chewbacca dog in his little picture? Like a dog with you bucka nice
37:28
that's al Boy's awesome, good dude, good dude, rin Is, and
37:30
he posted the chat last night. He said bad week for me, only
37:36
got ten bucks back. I said, damn, I hope you're only in
37:37
for nine bucks and he goes, no, five hundred. I said,
37:40
oh, that's just the fantasy guys, because he made so much money during
37:44
NFL. They were just taking a little bit back. Win, some lose,
37:47
some always learn something. And that's kind of the way we always have
37:50
it over both of our sites, DJ seventy five and to Ship It.
37:52
It's always about that. Even if you don't win ten weeks in a row,
37:55
it happens. We go on. I know, like you said it
37:58
before, people will message you and say, oh, I lost three weeks
38:00
in a row. I must be doing something wrong. It's like you can
38:02
figure things out. It's three weeks, like come on, So you have
38:06
to keep that in mind at all times. But what people forget is you
38:08
do pick up on these little things these shows. Some people might watch it
38:12
this show with us and say, ah, been entertaining but didn't learn much.
38:15
It's not for me whatever, that's fine, but you're trying to pick
38:17
up on little tidbits like why I'm always post them out and talking about them
38:21
to get information and nuggets that can help you for other decisions. What about
38:25
when it happens a month from now and you kind of say, ah,
38:29
I remember from this to do that these things add up and they do compound
38:32
over time. Can make you money that way as well. It only takes
38:36
one huge week or four or five good weeks to make money in this sport,
38:39
in this game, right you sir? Did it last year? Did
38:43
it last year? Kicking the dick? Kicking the dick, kicking the dick,
38:45
and then just three really big weeks pays it all off and gives me
38:47
a little bit to have to pay some taxes on. That's what we love
38:51
to see, right, taxes paid? You hate that about me, so
38:53
I digress. We'll leave it at that one there, Ben Coles back to
38:58
the well on him, Mayo was so happy to have him in the lineup
39:00
against me. I'm still gonna give him shit for this one though, because
39:02
he put me on the spot, says I have to build a lineup against
39:06
him in a head to head, and then uses the lineup that we built
39:08
together to beat me with it and then talk about it on Twitter. I
39:12
said, come, on. Now, we can't count that one, but
39:14
it's okay, I'll let him have it. He had a really good week,
39:15
by the way, he won the smaller five dollars drive degree. Yeah,
39:20
that's crazy. You know. Pat's actually sneaky good at PGA dfs,
39:23
like he plays the court jester thing. But like anybody who was up lifetime
39:29
at PGADFS, you can't do it on accident unless you've just hit one big
39:32
lineup. Ever, right, Pat, this has got to be like the
39:35
fourth or fifth time I can remember him hitting, either winning a tournament or
39:37
getting a big payday. And he's not a guy that's playing five thousand dollars
39:40
a week. He is good at pgadfs. Don't fall for it, and
39:45
know that that man is magical because he's single handedly made the cut minus two
39:47
when it had no business being minus two. He's a magical man. The
39:52
willing of that was just too much. I could just see it every tweet.
39:55
I've got his tweet notifications on he's my boy, so I'm seeing him
39:58
pop up and I almost I had to turn them off. I was like,
40:00
I can tell what's happening already. Oh if just this happens, but
40:04
if By the way, if this guy misses, we're still good, and
40:07
I'm like, shut the I got to take on this right here, here's
40:09
what so many people don't understand. If the cut would have been minus three,
40:14
the six of six right would have been four percent, right, And
40:16
let's say that that would have made it where you only have four percent of
40:19
your lineups get through. Right, so the six of six rates four percent,
40:22
and you also have four percent, so you're only matching the field,
40:24
But all of a sudden it jumped to twenty percent whenever the cut was minus
40:30
two. Right, But let's say you have twenty five percent six of six.
40:32
You're probably thinking, oh, I would rather have the twenty five percent
40:35
of my lineups be six of six. But what you don't understand is you
40:38
would have been so much better in the other scenario. We have four percent
40:42
of your lineups only make it six and six, but only four percent of
40:44
the field does because now you're competing against so many fewer lineups over the weekend
40:47
that you don't have to run nuclear hot to still go win the contest.
40:52
You always want carnage, even if you think it doesn't benefit you, as
40:55
long as you have one good lineup and it doesn't matter. You just want
40:59
car so that you have a better chance of getting that six of six,
41:01
to be able to not have the sun run on the weekend, but just
41:04
simply do well and you can win or do well in a GPP. Also,
41:07
I want to add to that because I love that call. Two things.
41:08
One is that the fact of, like you said, the smaller pool
41:12
you're up against this one part. But the second part is it's probably because
41:15
the chalk all busted, which means you actually have real leverage in your lineups
41:17
when you have twenty five percent six of six. I know people think this
41:21
is weird talking about it from this perspective, but it's gonna go to my
41:22
second point. It's like you kind of know, yeah, okay, I've
41:25
got more chances, but it's all these little two v two's and one v
41:29
ones and stuff like that down the stretch. That's why in something like King
41:31
of the Desert, I kept saying this, I was so tilted. I
41:34
don't get tilted very oft that I'll be tilted for ten minutes over this one.
41:37
Because it's whatever you're happy to be in it. So many people would
41:39
love to be in the same place I am grateful to be in such a
41:42
small field with an opportunity of a lifetime. But the point is is that
41:45
it's like everyone. I was saying, people played bad because they all built
41:49
these lineups with no leverage in them whatsoever, and so all a right everyone.
41:52
That's why everyone was riding the bubble yesterday the way it played out.
41:55
If it had a state, it wasn't just for my benefit that I would
41:58
have been locked in to get in. But I think I played the contest
42:01
better because for the format, everyone played it like a cash game, and
42:05
it was not a cash game. It was the top forty or so,
42:07
the top fifty of one to fifty thirty three percent get through. So you
42:10
have to keep that in mind. Those little edges do matter. And it's
42:13
the same thing for people that say on a Friday, like, oh,
42:16
you do realize you were heavy on this guy, Like I had an outright
42:19
at sixty to one on Kegan yesterday. I wanted him to bury that thing.
42:22
I hate that rule by the way you hit the grand stand, it's
42:24
a free drop. Just the worst I'll let that get buried. When you
42:28
have a lineup on Friday with that situation, I think you had one,
42:30
it was like two hundred and fifty in the two fifty four mats. You
42:34
will bury twelve hundred dollars on whoever else it is that made through the cut
42:37
because of that, because those lineups don't matter to you as much anymore as
42:42
the scenario and position you're in with the ultimate shot going into the weekend against
42:45
just a few number of teams. I had a ton of spencon and I
42:50
wanted the dude to miss the cut because he wasn't in my netted lineup,
42:52
right, like le no, No, you've got too much money on him.
42:54
Yes, but if he and all those other guys are out, that
42:58
makes this six of six lineup in the four two fifty infinitely more valuable.
43:01
So fox fence and he can miss the cut. Also, for all of
43:04
you that don't know me and Tam, but we do tilt PGA dfs.
43:07
The only difference between us and a lot of people is we've been doing it
43:09
so long. Our tilts just last for a few minutes. Okay, everybody
43:12
tilts, just whenever you tilt for days or weeks at a time. Maybe
43:15
you need to keep some shit in perspective, yeah, and just realize there's
43:17
always another shoutout slate you can fire up, get another stream on, get
43:22
some cold brew in, you get it all. Check it out, Bob,
43:24
you'll love it. So I'm in. I'm all for it. I
43:27
just think it was one of those things that I had to call out because
43:30
it was definitely, you know, a fact that again, not everybody goes
43:32
or thinks like that, and you don't have to. It's just how you
43:36
and I tend to think. And to me, it's always the way that
43:37
you look at how you look at things, not just you know what's actually
43:40
happening out there. Like you said, the two under thing, it wasn't
43:45
just two under lines that were five or six seats sneaking through. It was
43:47
lineups that would have been three or six or four a six that now had
43:52
two or three guys sitting at two under that all got through as well,
43:55
and then they're just competing against each other on two V twos where it's just
43:59
brutal the way it can you up. So definitely good point that you brought
44:01
up. There anybody else in the sevens that you want to talk about.
44:05
If not, you could take us into the sixes and then we'll get out
44:07
of here. After that, we do have, like I said, NFL
44:09
show coming up next and go from there, but lots to still talk about
44:13
here low sevens and then sixes. If say you stay busy, tambo,
44:17
yeah, it never ends. But this is the last Monday for football.
44:21
I'm excited. I was a million dollars up top tonight in that Tampa Bay
44:23
Philly game. But I'm just saying it is the last Monday. Hey.
44:27
The good news is if you're trying to if you're trying to get nice and
44:30
lean for our waste management meet up, to say, just stay busy all
44:31
day and just forget to eat. That's a little little little diet, little
44:35
diet trick from the big guy there. And shout out to Dell Dylan real
44:38
quick. I want to see this, he says, for King of the
44:40
Desert. Yeah, went ended up going to fifty eight percent six of six
44:44
or something, but my five of six made it because of lower owned plays.
44:49
Man, what's your username? Dylan? Just throw it in there.
44:52
I mean I saw a couple other members. I'm not sure if you know,
44:53
but the yeah, the that is the point. Though, Yes,
44:55
the leverage would have helped you get through. I didn't go back and check
44:59
how many five and six is snuck in and made it. But you beat
45:01
some six of six is that played their cash lineup for sure, because that's
45:05
what they get for playing those bad lineups. I saw that ship at I
45:07
saw at least three people in your community, including you, made it right,
45:10
and I saw at least two in my community made it. So we
45:14
got some real live. We've got some people getting real live to make the
45:15
final fifty of winning that thing. Nice, Dylan, I know this name,
45:20
and I know you got Djen's logo. That's why I always wondered who
45:22
that was. I knew he was a member over at your site, but
45:23
King of the North skul Nice. So yeah, that's awesome. Hopefully we
45:27
can get through this week. It's the top fifteen of fifty. Move on.
45:30
It's always a challenge. The field is loaded with people that had multiples
45:34
and everything like that. But it's gonna be an awesome week. It makes
45:37
it fun more of a sweat. We will be down, we can,
45:38
We've got time. We can still preview it now, but dj we will
45:40
be in Phoenix, Arizona at the Ways Management in just a couple short weeks
45:46
now. So on February eighth to the twelfth, we'll be down there.
45:50
The full Itinery will be out. I finalizing that if we don't get it
45:52
locked in for the super Bowl watch party by the middle of this week or
45:55
so, we're gonna move on to the next step. But we will have
45:58
something for that as well. But we'll be at Popstroke on Friday night.
46:01
We're gonna be there from eight to eleven. Anyone who's down there, it's
46:04
gonna be awesome time. You can come in. We got some drink tickets,
46:07
some food, gonna be hanging out, having some fun, hitting some
46:08
balls, doing that sort of stuff. And so it's putting, but that's
46:10
everybody's good at putting. They like it, so that'll be fun. Saturday
46:14
night will be at one of the casinos down there. You can come out
46:15
and hang out if you like. Obviously at the course at least on Friday
46:19
afternoon and on Saturday, I know for a fact, is when I'll be
46:22
there. And then Sunday we've got some stuff with the super Bowl being that
46:24
night all that, but we'll let it be known where we're at there as
46:28
well, and you guys can come on down and hang out with us or
46:29
if you're already down there even more the reason to do so anything else you
46:32
want to add on that? If not, you could take us into the
46:35
six k range. Uh. Look, just looking for some guys that can
46:37
get roasty hot done here right, Like, I'm just gonna go with the
46:40
same thing, my dude, toasty. I kind of like that guy.
46:43
I like the arm sleeve right him and Dylan Fortelly just rocking the arm sleeve
46:46
like they're pick playing a game of pickup basketball. You know, like you
46:51
can get roasty. Is that the new one? Yeah, roast toasty,
46:53
roasty toasty, that's the name. New nick name alert roasty toasty. All
46:58
right. I mean, look, a terrible Saturday, but I think that
47:00
guy bounced back with a really nice Sunday. So don't sleep on a roasty
47:04
toasty. But like going down here, Harry Hall, t Dunks, Robbie
47:07
Shelton, see if there's anybody else, Chad Raimie. Like, these guys
47:13
are gross, but you know what, when they're in they know how to
47:15
go rerual low. Those are guys that all can get to minus twenty.
47:19
I don't mind playing those guys, and I promise you all of them will
47:21
be under three percent owned, So like, these are the kind of guys,
47:23
especially when I know that they're guaranteed three rounds, I'm willing to take
47:28
and mix in with the uh with with the more expensive dudes as my pump
47:31
plays this week. Oh Callen Tarin, don't even let me started. I
47:35
don't Callen tearing out my heart? Yeah, uh your guy Crazy Carl though,
47:39
is down the two Mail. Always like him as well. He's in
47:42
there at sixty nine hundred, so some six K best by pricing on Carl.
47:45
After a big week last week, the Chad asked about Kazaire in the
47:49
seven k's. Did you talk about him at all or did you like him
47:51
him in the spot? Oh yeah, no, I'm gonna look. You
47:52
need to know something, you know, I have some guys like Jordan Speith
47:55
and Aaron Hatton that I always get right. Well, Patton is one of
48:00
those guys, just the exact opposite. I play him all the time,
48:02
never get him right. He's just the I if I wanted to do things
48:07
right, I just never play him again. But I like kind of what
48:08
I saw from Patton Casiro and he is a dude that can go ruulo and
48:13
he just finished thirteenth at the Sony. You know, it doesn't take a
48:15
lot of convincing to get the big guy on Paton Kazaire. Yeah, thirteenth
48:20
and fifteenth and two of his last four eleventh, twenty, don't sleep on.
48:22
Dylan Wu either started to warm up over the weekend, and Dylan Wu
48:25
is one of those guys you look up, it's like, how in the
48:28
hell is that guy? Minus seven through eight holes? That's always Dylan Wu.
48:31
We can go back to Troy Merritt too. I think I remember last
48:35
week I introduced you. You just told me something about you. Remember I
48:37
introduced you to the Troy Merritt flow chart. Yep, it comes true again.
48:40
Man, the guy just always comes to at least the mad cut and
48:43
scores now you needed them. So I won't say that much, but just
48:45
always seems to be the case. He's down here at sixty five hundred,
48:49
who else? Who else? There's some other spots down here, old Panda.
48:52
He was in the mix there for a minute, people were liking him,
48:54
and then he fell off again. So that's typically going to be the
48:58
case. I'm sure Mayo will try talk me into Carson Young see if we
49:01
can go go there, Chez Revie. Can I get Can I get a
49:05
little Chez? Yeah? I missed the cut at Sony. I don't care.
49:08
I don't care they bounce back. Uh, that's just a lot.
49:12
I'm just trying to scroll the whole list just to see if I see other
49:14
ones down here that you know, guys what Kevin you, we're not we're
49:17
not interesting in Kevin you. That guy can get hot. Yeah, I
49:22
like him. Yeah, not anybody else. I mean, I would do
49:25
the piercing cootie, but I can't. I can't do the funny voice,
49:29
so I'm not gonna do it. Save that one for tomorrow's show. I
49:30
don't see much else down here at all that I want to talk about.
49:34
Oh, Michael Block, what about him? No, Block, you get
49:37
the get out of here with that slap dick. If you put him in
49:40
your lineups, you don't talk to me for one year. I ain't doing
49:44
that. That's that's nuts. We're not playing. I don't see much else
49:46
down here, though. Man, I don't have anybody. It gets gross
49:50
real quick. It gets gross real quick. After sixty five hundred, they
49:53
got real gross, real quick. Yeah, Kevin you at sixty three hundred.
49:57
Maybe we could end the show on that. I guess, like a
49:59
quick conversation around just overall roster construction now, just on first thoughts of what
50:04
you've seen. Obviously very ugly, when you get to sixty five hundred and
50:07
below, you can be very convincing and making some cases for guys that you
50:13
just tried to sell us on in the sixty five sixty six to sixty nine
50:15
hundred dollar range. And I'm not against this. I like the guys you
50:17
mentioned there, like a guy like Tyler Duncan or something. But it does
50:22
look like people will be able to play sevens and above again, no problem.
50:25
And I don't know, it's hard for me to assess right now.
50:28
Do you think it's gonna be the eight k's or the nine k's that goes
50:30
overlooked. I'm starting to think it's the nines because if you've got Cole and
50:35
see Wu and some other guys Puttnam and dudes that you can make a case
50:37
for in there, it makes me think that already we weren't sure if people
50:42
were gonna go to Kirk Fowler Fenale. We really don't think they're gonna go
50:45
to burns Lee Day and maybe they don't go to Thomas, but even if
50:50
they do go to Thomas, that's behind the other Tom Tom Kim, and
50:53
that's him going there that you could see. So Tom Kim posting look popular,
50:59
but most the other night look overlooked. Is that how you're seeing it?
51:01
Yeah, definitely, I think I think you're gonna see those Probably the
51:04
top five guys will get ownership, and then I think there's gonna be a
51:07
bit of a dead range down to postin and just looking at the early roster
51:10
composition, here's what I would tell you this tournament more than most, and
51:14
it's probably just because of the birdie fest nature, the hashtag fucking putting contest
51:19
nature of this tournament is it's a bit more volatile. So this, to
51:22
me, this is a week to play some of those you know, random
51:24
guys that I just think those guys are more likely to get there than they
51:29
are at a real golf tournament. So if I'm gonna play Chalk up Top,
51:31
I'm gonna make a point to diversify down low with just some icky punts.
51:36
And I think we already said three or four of them. Yeah,
51:38
I don't hate that, and I think that's gonna be what I'm gonna look
51:40
at too. It's gonna be a roster construction week for sure, you know.
51:44
Just you can see it already where it's gonna get spread out, and
51:45
then we'll wait. There could be more narratives brought into this again, literally
51:49
the very first look, the prices came out seconds before I pressed refresh,
51:52
had said reserve only or whatever, reservation only, Press refresh again. The
51:55
prices were there. But the point is is that what course of starting on?
52:00
Who gets what course on what day? The weather narrative will be brought
52:02
up further as the week goes on, maybe not necessarily because it's crazy weather
52:07
right now. It looks like just looking out earlier there wasn't much, but
52:09
if anything pops up, it will be brought into people starting to try to
52:13
figure out, well, this course on this day, and you want to
52:15
play in the wind on this course and not the wind on that course,
52:19
so on and so forth. So keep in tune for all that stuff will
52:21
have you covered. Give us your final thoughts and where the people can find
52:24
you this week. Everything you got going on, James, Yeah, my
52:27
weather guy, I already put out the first kind of initial look and it
52:29
looks like it's going to be very beautiful all the first three days, right.
52:31
I think it's just gonna be a little cool in the morning, which
52:34
can slow down scoring. Ask for me, guys, just come check out
52:37
the Wednesday night stream seven o'clock that's in the Lord's time zone. Be there
52:40
for that. I'll have all the final information you need to know, from
52:43
weather to ownership to leverage to the model and all the shit in between.
52:47
I'll have everything you need it. If you had never seen it, it's
52:50
a show a little bit different than the others, I encourage you to come
52:52
check it out. I will do all the selling on that show, so
52:54
just be there, be there live. It is the most popular stream mpgadfs,
52:59
so I encourage it to come check it out. Thanks again Tambo for
53:01
having me on. I enjoyed doing these. Yeah, they're always good.
53:04
I like that we bounced them back and forth too, so people can always
53:06
know where to find us. We always post it out. If you follow
53:08
us on X you can get it there. You can see it where we
53:10
posted out that way. If you're a member already at either of our sites,
53:13
you'll see it in the discord. I throw James's shows in the Discord
53:15
throughout the week for the ones we're not doing, like showdown shows for now
53:19
and things like that. So check out both of us out there if you
53:22
guys can. If you want to check out the sites, go to djen
53:23
seventy five dot com. You can use promo code ship it for ten percent
53:27
off. There. You want to check out the introductory pricing over at ship
53:30
at Nation. On PGA options, you can use the code is it DJEN
53:32
or DJN seventy five. I thought it was dj pretty sure. I thought
53:36
it was DJEN seventy five. I don't know. The editor probably said that
53:38
up. We want to look like a guy that has my shit together.
53:42
I don't know what I'm doing. I know I know it work. If
53:44
DJN doesn't work, save yourself the button pressing. If it doesn't work,
53:47
it says code invalid. Just add a seven to five and you're good to
53:51
go. But it's the key is you will get the ten percent off the
53:52
introductory pricing. So when the introductory pricing goes up, you still can get
53:57
temper sent off, but it's gonna be on a higher number, so it's
53:59
not gonna be as good of a deal or as good of a savings.
54:00
That's gonna do it for this one guys. I'll be live coming up next
54:04
with whop and title just five minutes from now. Four minutes from now,
54:07
it's about to click over to Talking nfl Over on the Mail Media Network YouTube
54:10
station, So check that out. That's gonna do it for this one guys,
54:13
for Degenerate seventy five and for myself Toteck and tambo Leed ship it