Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 3918 Iran Just Crossed the RED LINE and THREATENS the US Navy, Then THIS HAPPENED…

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Ep. 3918 Iran Just Crossed the RED LINE and THREATENS the US Navy, Then THIS HAPPENED… · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
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• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Six hours.
• 0:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: For six straight hours, the captain of the Naranian cargo ship got warning after warning after warning, from the most powerful Navy on the planet, turn around.
• 0:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: You're violating the blockade, turn around.
• 0:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: He didn't.
• 0:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: He refused.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: And what happened next?
• 0:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: Literally, changed everything.
• 0:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, your patron professor here to help you make sense of the madness with breaking news and analysis, you're not going to get anywhere else.
• 0:57
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• 1:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now if you've been with us over the past several weeks,
• 1:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: You'll know that we've been covering Operation Epic Fury virtually every day since the very first strike.
• 1:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I want to tell you, what just happened in the Gulf of Oman the other day is a watershed moment, not just tactically or militarily, but strategically in ways that are going to reverberate from Tehran to Beijing for weeks.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: So on April 19th, the Iranian flag cargo vessel Towska,
• 1:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: was streaming through the North Arabian Sea at 17 knots, headed toward the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.
• 1:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a direct violation of the U.S. naval blockade, which went into effect on April 13th after the first round of U.S. Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed without a deal.
• 1:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: The USS Spruence guided its a guided missile destroyer one of the most capable surface combatants of float moved to intercept.
• 2:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sankam says American forces issued multiple warnings over a six hour period.
• 2:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: And when the Tulskas crew continue to ignore those warnings, they got this.
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Motor vessel Tulskas, motor vessel Tulskas,
• 2:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: vacate your engine room.
• 2:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're prepared to subject you to the same line fire.
• 2:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Tosco is hitting their engine room, and their propulsion was destroyed immediately.
• 2:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: The ship was dead in the water, and within hours, marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit departed from USS Tripoli, flew by helicopter and repelled onto the Tosco's deck.
• 2:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: The vessel was seized, and as we speak, it now remains in U.S. custody.
• 2:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the reason why this changed everything is because it was the first deliberate methodical, professionally executed enforcement action, the first of its kind.
• 3:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: since the blockade began.
• 3:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: When the U.S. announced the naval blockade back on April 13, everyone knew that Iran would eventually cross the red line and test it, threaten the effectiveness of the blockade.
• 3:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: And as far as Iranians were concerned, they would demonstrate once again that the United States, when it comes to patrolling homoos or omen or Persian Gulf,
• 3:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: demonstrate.
• 3:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: But all the TOSCA ended up doing was proving that assumption catastrophically wrong.
• 3:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: The US Navy is now operating with actual rules of engagement that authorize disabling fire, taking out a ship's propulsion.
• 3:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're not bluffing, they're not posturing, they will shoot if you run the blockade and then they will board you and then your ship belongs to the United States of America.
• 4:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: And here's why that matters so enormously for Ron strategic calculus.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: eight for million barrels of oil per day.
• 4:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if even we take a conservative say $90 per barrel, that's about five billion dollars a month in oil revenue.
• 4:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: essentially all of it transits through or near the straight or moves.
• 4:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And approximately 97.6% of all Ronnie and oil at see right now is destined for one customer.
• 4:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: And who's that?
• 4:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, who's the one customer financing literally has a monopoly over financing Iran.
• 4:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's China.
• 4:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: The blockade, if and force like it's being done right now, does not just hurt
• 5:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: doesn't just squeeze the regime.
• 5:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's severed the financial lifeline of the Islamic Republic from its chief financier China that's depended on Iranian and Venezuelan cheap oil for its own business model, basically.
• 5:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Analysts estimate losses of up to $435 million per day for Iran in war-related economic damage.
• 5:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran's inflation was already running above 50% before this conflict began, and now Iran knows concretely that the blockade has teeth.
• 5:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is not a paper tiger, and fathically not.
• 5:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I made the argument in yesterday's video that we're at the point now where all Trump
• 5:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: And watch the regime, that doesn't mean, of course, he's not going to attack or order the resumption of destroying the regime's infrastructure and continue to completely decimate their ability to project power.
• 5:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: He'll certainly do that, for sure.
• 6:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: But my point yesterday was that regardless of what Trump does, the regime's collapse is basically baked into the cake of its own internal contradictions.
• 6:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: If they challenge U.S. forces in any direct way, they're immediately rebuffed and rendered inert.
• 6:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: If they don't challenge U.S. forces, they actually agree to Trump's ceasefire terms.
• 6:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: The IRGC, the Islamic Republican Guard, they lose all credibility.
• 6:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: since ideologically, they frame themselves as ordained by God to destroy the great Satan.
• 6:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if the great Satan, in effect, as it were destroys them, then that by definition refutes their ideology.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if they just sit back and do nothing, trying to wait Trump out on this,
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's star to $435 million of oil revenue per day.
• 6:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: So no matter what they do, it all leads to the same end.
• 6:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: It all results ultimately in the fall of the regime.
• 7:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: So given that, what can we expect to happen?
• 7:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now that the two weeks ceasefire is drawing to a close, literally, in mere hours.
• 7:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's exactly what we're about to find out.
• 7:16
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• 9:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure you've all figured out by now that the Iranian delegation that showed up in Islamabad to negotiate with JD Vans was it there to make peace, it was there to stall.
• 9:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the IRGC officers who flew in alongside them were there to negotiate.
• 9:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: They were there to prevent any negotiation from actually succeeding.
• 9:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Every time the regime's diplomats got close to something workable,
• 9:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: The miners in the room, as it were, shut it down.
• 9:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Remember, with the leadership decimated, literally decapitated, this isn't a single regime we're dealing with here.
• 9:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's multiple factions fighting for control.
• 9:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: The IRGC knows that if there is a deal made accepting U.S. terms of surrender, they're shot.
• 9:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're ideological legitimacy implodes.
• 9:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so they're going to have to find some way of getting their oil into Chinese hands.
• 10:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: That smuggled oils the only way they get funds.
• 10:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they're engaged right now in a kind of Palestinian campaign, they're screaming.
• 10:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
• 10:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: A Gaza-like thing.
• 10:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're screaming and crying to the UN that their children are starving as a result of this blockade and that this is a crime against humanity.
• 10:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they're trying to break the blockade by breaking America's will to maintain it.
• 10:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, good luck with that.
• 10:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that's going to be the IRGC sees strategy.
• 10:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're trying to outlast the will of Trump to continue with the bombings in the blockade.
• 10:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: while the blockade hits their bank account, and so the hardliners in the regime because the legitimacy of their ideology requires us, the hardliners are going to do everything they can to try to outlast Trump.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: From the other side of US and Israeli forces, we have to understand the strategic nature of that ceasefire.
• 11:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: While it was buying Iran time,
• 11:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Nevertheless, every key player left standing in the regime has come out of hiding during that ceasefire.
• 11:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: A number of analysts have noted this, but the senior commanders who were buried in bunkers, the mid-level staffers, shuddling messages between IRGC leadership and the cannon fodder still shooting at ships, all of them broke cover.
• 11:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: back up on the grid.
• 11:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: And from the moment they did, they have been under persistent, unblinking 24-hour surveillance, spy satellites, stealth drones, orbiting at altitude, human intelligence networks on the ground, AI assisted targeting systems, war gaming, the sequencing, and real time, the strike plans are already written.
• 11:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: The targets are already locked.
• 12:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: What comes next?
• 12:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: We'll be qualitatively different from the first round.
• 12:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: It'll be faster, it'll be more precise, and it'll be aimed squarely at the people who've been driving Iran's continued resistance, not just the buildings, but the bank as well.
• 12:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Meanwhile, Iran is hemorrhaging allies in real time.
• 12:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: So when IRGC gunboats fired on ships this past weekend,
• 12:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a country Iran spent years cultivating a friendly relationship with India immediately some in the Iranian ambassador, India's furious as they should be.
• 12:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: France and Britain, the two
• 12:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: The factless so-called allies, the United States, who spent five weeks pretending to be neutral, have now quietly announced a multilateral mission to keep poor moves open, which is a very European way of saying that they're joining the American side, better light than never, we don't need you, it doesn't matter.
• 13:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: But regardless, then of course there's China.
• 13:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: The China dimension that very few are talking about right now.
• 13:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump meets President G in a matter of weeks.
• 13:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: China's the single largest buyer of Iran smuggled oil.
• 13:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this blockade is also quietly a message to Beijing.
• 13:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: Work with Washington on Iran and trade negotiations open up.
• 13:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Don't and your energy supply just became a liability.
• 13:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's precisely why G, quietly offered this week to take Iran's leftover enriched uranium off their hands.
• 13:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: He wants leverage before that summit with Trump, because he sees which way the wind is blowing.
• 13:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so the IRGC ideological fanatics driving Iran toward resumption as war,
• 13:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: really have no way out.
• 13:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: If they surrender to U.S. forces, they surrender their ideological legitimacy.
• 14:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: If they don't surrender, they'll continue to be pummeled militarily and starved economically.
• 14:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: They have no way out of this.
• 14:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump cut off their money, isolated their allies, surveilled their leadership during the one window.
• 14:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: They felt safe to surface and has the strike packages ready to go.
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: No matter which way the regime decides to go, they are about to find out.
• 14:32
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• 14:34
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