Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / Week 10 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games!

Transcript

Week 10 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

0:01
Speaker 1: It's week 10, and we're picking the 10 best games
0:04
Speaker 1: of the week against the spread. Welcome in. This is
0:11
Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast. I'm your host,
0:14
Speaker 1: Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the different socials. Most
0:18
Speaker 1: active on X. Today, as I do every week, I'm
0:22
Speaker 1: using my model, analytics, and handicapping experience to preview and
0:25
Speaker 1: predict the outcome of games that you see on your
0:28
Speaker 1: screen here. Now, let's not waste a lot of time.
0:31
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and get to the games. We'll start
0:34
Speaker 1: off with Alabama at LSU. It's a de facto playoff game, right? Saturday, 2.30 p.m.
0:39
Speaker 1: Central Time in Baton Rouge. God's time zone on ABC.
0:44
Speaker 1: LSU laying 4.5. It opened at 5.5. It got to 5.5 earlier.
0:50
Speaker 1: It's now dropped to 4.5 with the total flat at 52.5.
0:54
Speaker 1: Both teams 6-2 coming off a bye. Each side has
0:56
Speaker 1: had two weeks of rest, right? They should be good here.
1:00
Speaker 1: Alabama 4-4 against the spread. They are fourth in my
1:03
Speaker 1: power ratings. LSU 4-3 against the spread. They are first
1:08
Speaker 1: in my power ratings. Kiffin hosting Alabama for the first
1:10
Speaker 1: time in Death Valley. His teams have lost five straight
1:13
Speaker 1: to the tide. None of those DeBoer teams, by the way.
1:16
Speaker 1: My projected score, as you see on the screen here,
1:18
Speaker 1: LSU 28.5, Alabama 26.9. That is a 1.6-point game against
1:19
Speaker 1: a 4.5-point market. Now, LSU, they also host Texas next week.
1:29
Speaker 1: We could say that's a look-ahead spot, but you know
1:32
Speaker 1: Kiffin ain't looking over Alabama. You know that ain't how
1:35
Speaker 1: it's going to go down. So, let's start off with
1:37
Speaker 1: Alabama's offense against LSU's defense. The biggest number here is Havoc.
1:42
Speaker 1: As you can see up at the top of the screen,
1:44
Speaker 1: LSU's defense, 4th at creating it. Alabama's offense, 109th at
1:48
Speaker 1: allowing it. LSU also allows just 2.69 yards per carry.
1:51
Speaker 1: That is 6th nationally. Alabama going to be without one
1:54
Speaker 1: of their top running backs, EJ Crowell.
1:57
Speaker 2: Eh.
1:58
Speaker 1: At least we assume that he will be gone. He
2:00
Speaker 1: was out for the last game. Pay attention to your
2:04
Speaker 1: injury reports this week, okay? Alabama's best path is through
2:07
Speaker 1: the air. Tide averages 9.2 yards per pass attempt. That's
2:10
Speaker 1: 15th in FBS against an LSU defense that ranks 17th
2:14
Speaker 1: in yards per attempt allowed. It's not an easy matchup,
2:17
Speaker 1: but LSU's injury list is pretty brutal. Their safety spears,
2:20
Speaker 1: of course, the edge, Gabrielle Relaford, and their corner, Aiden Anding,
2:24
Speaker 1: they're all out for the season. Linebackers Weeks and Charles
2:26
Speaker 1: Ross are out. Or at least, we'll see. Injury reports
2:30
Speaker 1: are very important, remember. But there's defensive tackle Richard Anderson,
2:34
Speaker 1: also questionable, doubtful, whatever you want to call it. On
2:38
Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, LSU's offense. Kiffin's specialty, right?
2:42
Speaker 1: Charlie Wise Jr. This is where LSU should have the edge.
2:45
Speaker 1: Tigers rank 27th in passing explosiveness against an Alabama defense
2:50
Speaker 1: that ranks 124th in that metric. LSU's 6th in passing success.
2:54
Speaker 1: Alabama's defense is 90th. LSU's 6th on passing downs against
2:59
Speaker 1: a unit ranked 75th. Alabama's secondary was supposed to be
3:03
Speaker 1: the best part of this team, and it has not
3:06
Speaker 1: exactly come to fruition. Their defense is missing corner Zabian Brown,
3:12
Speaker 1: several other guys who are out for the season as well,
3:14
Speaker 1: but Zabian Brown, we'll see if he's back for this
3:18
Speaker 1: game or not. He did not play in the last game.
3:21
Speaker 1: Alabama's strong against the run. They rank 8th in rushing
3:24
Speaker 1: success allowed, 6th in offensive line yards allowed, so LSU...
3:27
Speaker 1: You should not expect an easy ground game. Red zone
3:30
Speaker 1: is the problem for the Tide. They allow scores on
3:32
Speaker 1: 96% of red zone trips. That ranks 134th. Now, they
3:36
Speaker 1: don't always allow touchdowns, so that's certainly good. It's kind
3:39
Speaker 1: of a bend-but-don't-break defense, and you're going to get that
3:42
Speaker 1: with a zone defense, right? As far as hitting yardage
3:44
Speaker 1: and strength of schedule and whatnot, Alabama's got the special
3:48
Speaker 1: team's edge here, 28th against 105th. The Tide are 10th
3:52
Speaker 1: in turnover margin, 3rd in takeaways, but they are 94th.
3:56
Speaker 1: In penalties, 7.13 per game. The trends are kind of
4:00
Speaker 1: mixed here, right? LSU, after an over, they've covered only
4:03
Speaker 1: 2 out of 11 since 2024. And DeBoer, as an underdog,
4:04
Speaker 1: 9-3 against the spread since 2021. LSU at home, they've
4:07
Speaker 1: covered 35 out of 58 games since 2016. My upset
4:08
Speaker 1: radar was a fade when it was built at LSU
4:10
Speaker 1: minus 5.5. My WCE8 factors... has got LSU minus 9.5.
4:27
Speaker 1: The stats model had LSU by only 1.5. So at 4.5,
4:31
Speaker 1: my situation metric, my power ratings numbers, that one's at 5.3.
4:36
Speaker 1: That now sits on the LSU side. So the radar
4:39
Speaker 1: edge is like a 3-3 split, right? I'm going to
4:43
Speaker 1: keep Alabama because of the LSU defensive injuries, because of
4:46
Speaker 1: the trends, etc., right? This feels like a knockdown-dragout fight.
4:52
Speaker 1: For the total... Kiffin off of a spread cover has
4:55
Speaker 1: gone under 23 times in 30 games. But the model
4:58
Speaker 1: total that I've got is 55.4. I'm going to lean
5:02
Speaker 1: under the 52.5, but it's kind of small here. I
5:05
Speaker 1: like this better at 5.5. I'll take Alabama plus 4.5.
5:09
Speaker 1: My prediction on this one is 30-27, 27-24, something like that.
5:14
Speaker 1: I think LSU gets the win, but I don't think
5:18
Speaker 1: they cover that number. So Alabama plus 4.5. Miami at
5:22
Speaker 1: Notre Dame, Saturday, 6.30 p.m. Central Time on NBC. It's
5:27
Speaker 1: God's time zone, of course. Notre Dame, minus five and
5:30
Speaker 1: a half, has not changed since Sunday. For those that
5:34
Speaker 1: are on Buy Me a Coffee, I bet this thing
5:36
Speaker 1: at Notre Dame minus three and a half on Saturday morning,
5:39
Speaker 1: and I didn't give it out. It's the first time
5:41
Speaker 1: all year that I've done that. I apologize. I apologize.
5:45
Speaker 1: But it kind of gives you an idea of which
5:47
Speaker 1: way I might be thinking about going. But five and
5:49
Speaker 1: a half is a lot different from three and a half, so. Anyway,
5:53
Speaker 1: the total has bounced around, right? 55.5 to 58.5. It's
5:56
Speaker 1: now sitting at 57.5. Miami 8-0, number one in the country,
5:59
Speaker 1: but they are 4-3-1 against the spread. This team is
6:03
Speaker 1: sixth in my power ratings. Notre Dame 7-1, 4-4 against
6:07
Speaker 1: the spread. They are seventh in my power ratings. Now,
6:10
Speaker 1: there's obviously some history here. The Irish still pretty sore
6:12
Speaker 1: about the 2025 playoff spot that went to Miami. This
6:15
Speaker 1: is Miami's first November trip to South Bend since 1976.
6:19
Speaker 1: Miami won the last meeting between these two. This was
6:21
Speaker 1: the opener in the 2025 season, 27-24. My projected score
6:27
Speaker 1: here is Notre Dame 29.2, Miami 26.5. But that's just numbers, right?
6:33
Speaker 1: All right, let's look at Miami's offense against Notre Dame's defense.
6:39
Speaker 1: Miami's offense is elite. Hurricanes rank first in passing PPA,
6:42
Speaker 1: second at 10.4 yards per attempt. They score 49 points
6:45
Speaker 1: per game. That's number one nationally. Their third down defense
6:48
Speaker 1: ranks fifth. against the Notre Dame defense. That's 83rd in
6:52
Speaker 1: that metric. Notre Dame's defense is hurt, right? Their top
6:55
Speaker 1: linebacker is out, uh, along with their safety Johnson, the corner,
6:58
Speaker 1: Chad Smith. Uh, but I think they've got most of
7:01
Speaker 1: their guys healthy, you know, in, in this spot, they
7:04
Speaker 1: didn't exactly have to work up too much of a
7:06
Speaker 1: sweat against Navy last week. As far as Notre Dame's offense,
7:10
Speaker 1: their biggest problem is rushing explosiveness. Miami ranks six, Notre
7:14
Speaker 1: Dame ranks 125th. The Irish also without two offensive linemen, um, But,
7:19
Speaker 1: you know, these are guys that they haven't had most
7:20
Speaker 1: of the year. Like, they should be fine on the
7:22
Speaker 1: offensive line. Miami's defense is third in yards per rush.
7:25
Speaker 1: I don't expect much from the ground game here. The
7:28
Speaker 1: Irish can attack through the air. Miami's got some problems there.
7:31
Speaker 1: Notre Dame is eighth in passing PPA against a Miami
7:34
Speaker 1: pass defense that ranks 80th, and they're fifth in a
7:37
Speaker 1: havoc allowed. Notre Dame also ranks first in points per
7:40
Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, which is, for those that don't know scoring opportunity,
7:43
Speaker 1: that is when the opponent gets a first down inside
7:46
Speaker 1: the opponent's 40-yard line. Miami allows touchdowns on only 57%
7:50
Speaker 1: of red zone trips. That's first nationally. Now, granted, a
7:54
Speaker 1: lot of that's probably got to do with strength of schedule.
7:56
Speaker 1: But that's the matchup that you need to watch here.
7:59
Speaker 1: Notre Dame finishes, drives well. Miami is hard to finish against.
8:03
Speaker 1: So whoever wins that battle is probably going to win
8:04
Speaker 1: this ballgame. As far as hood and yardage and strength
8:07
Speaker 1: of schedule and whatnot, Notre Dame is the cleanest team
8:11
Speaker 1: in the country. First in penalties at only three a game.
8:14
Speaker 1: Second in turnover margin. Special teams are at 11th for
8:18
Speaker 1: both teams. The Irish have faced the 123rd ranked slate
8:24
Speaker 1: by opponent PPA margin. So I'm kind of cautious about
8:26
Speaker 1: their numbers. Both teams do play slowly. The trends are
8:31
Speaker 1: kind of a knife fight in this. Miami in non-conference games,
8:34
Speaker 1: they've covered 11 of 12 since 2024. Cristobal after an
8:35
Speaker 1: over 17 and 30 against the spread since 2016. Cristobal
8:37
Speaker 1: with a total from 55 to 59 and a half.
8:45
Speaker 1: He's covered only 3 of 14 games since 2021. Notre
8:49
Speaker 1: Dame is a favorite off of Wynn. They've covered 32
8:51
Speaker 1: of 47 games. So that is a super high mark.
8:55
Speaker 1: Better than 66%. Crazy. As far as my ratings go,
9:01
Speaker 1: this is a lean here. Four of my six models
9:05
Speaker 1: lean to the Irish to cover this number. My WCE8, oh,
9:08
Speaker 1: the median edge on this is 2.3. My WCE8 power
9:13
Speaker 1: ratings and stats all have Notre Dame by about 3,
9:15
Speaker 1: so you're getting 2.5 to 3 points here for Miami.
9:19
Speaker 1: The model total is 55.5. Take that back, 55.7. I'm
9:24
Speaker 1: staying off the total on this. At 5.5, I might
9:29
Speaker 1: would go Miami, but I think this Notre Dame team
9:33
Speaker 1: has been building up to this game all year long.
9:37
Speaker 1: All year long. So anything under a touchdown... I'm kind
9:40
Speaker 1: of thinking Notre Dame is going to put it on them.
9:43
Speaker 1: They are going to be fired up. That stadium is
9:44
Speaker 1: going to be insane. Absolutely insane. And we know that
9:49
Speaker 1: Miami's defense can get got. I would expect Notre Dame
9:54
Speaker 1: to show up in the best possible way here. Give
9:58
Speaker 1: me Notre Dame minus five and a half. I know
10:01
Speaker 1: it's crazy. It's not the three and a half that
10:04
Speaker 1: I bet on Saturday, but yeah, forget the numbers here.
10:11
Speaker 1: This is pure motivation. I think Notre Dame is absolutely
10:14
Speaker 1: fired up for this one. Notre Dame minus five and
10:16
Speaker 1: a half. Real quick, if you're getting something out of this,
10:19
Speaker 1: do me a favor. Hit that like button. It looks
10:21
Speaker 1: like this thing right here. Hit the subscribe button. It
10:24
Speaker 1: costs you nothing. It helps me get the show in
10:26
Speaker 1: front of more college football fans. All right. Back to
10:28
Speaker 1: the board. The Holy War. BYU at Utah Saturday, 11 a.m.
10:33
Speaker 1: Central Time. God's time zone. This one on ABC. Both
10:38
Speaker 1: teams are ranked here. Utah is minus 5.5. The total
10:40
Speaker 1: came down to 47.5 earlier in the week. It's now
10:42
Speaker 1: back up to 48.5. Utah 8-0, 6-1-1 against the spread
10:49
Speaker 1: in Morgan Scali's first year. They are 12th in my
10:52
Speaker 1: power ratings. BYU 7-1, 5-2 against the spread, 24th in
10:57
Speaker 1: my power ratings. Now, BYU has won three straight in
10:59
Speaker 1: this series. That includes 24-21 last October. My projected score
11:03
Speaker 1: here per the model, this is the stats model, Utah 30.9,
11:08
Speaker 1: BYU 20.7. Yikes, right? Yikes. All right, let's start off
11:15
Speaker 1: when BYU is on offense. Utah's defense has the edge.
11:17
Speaker 1: It ranks fifth in passing success. BYU's offense ranks 77th. BYU, again,
11:22
Speaker 1: going to be without top-rated running back LJ Martin and
11:25
Speaker 1: the backup Moa. It hurts because BYU's run game averages 5.38
11:29
Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's 19th in FBS. They kind of
11:32
Speaker 1: kept it going even without Martin. So we'll see what
11:36
Speaker 1: happens here. We'll certainly see what happens. Again, pay attention
11:39
Speaker 1: to the injury reports in the middle of the week.
11:41
Speaker 1: BYU's best path is converting on third down. Cougars rank
11:44
Speaker 1: third in the country. Utah's defense is 37th. Utah, of course,
11:47
Speaker 1: missing their defensive tackle, Wallace, to suspension. The linebackers, Pitts
11:51
Speaker 1: and Reed. BYU's offensive line is also missing Ostler. Trevin
11:56
Speaker 1: Ostler here. On the other side of the ball. Utah's
12:01
Speaker 1: offense ranks third on passing downs. BYU's defense ranks 92nd. Yikes.
12:07
Speaker 1: Utah also third in passing success against the BYU defense,
12:10
Speaker 1: ranked 38th. Although... And BYU's 7th in yards per attempt allowed.
12:15
Speaker 1: Utah runs for 5.65 yards per carry, 10th in FBS.
12:18
Speaker 1: They convert 3rd down at the 9th best rate in
12:20
Speaker 1: the country against BYU's 93rd ranked defense. Something to pay
12:24
Speaker 1: attention to there. This Utah offense is so fun. Having
12:29
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks on the field at the same time is,
12:31
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a cheat code. It's really awesome. BYU's
12:35
Speaker 1: secondary is certainly a concern here. Their corners, Johnson and
12:38
Speaker 1: Cabella and Shig are all out, along with defensive end
12:41
Speaker 1: Wall and the linebacker Watson. As far as hitting yardage
12:44
Speaker 1: and strength of schedule, BYU special teams edge, 11th versus 54th.
12:48
Speaker 1: BYU schedule, Per Sagarin, 41st. Utah is the 60th. Utah's
12:53
Speaker 1: opponents rank 101st in PPA margin. Like that is, I mean,
13:00
Speaker 1: Utah ain't played anybody even close to Notre Dame's level.
13:03
Speaker 1: And if you want to say Cincinnati and Houston, then
13:08
Speaker 1: I can understand where you're coming from. BYU's second best
13:11
Speaker 1: win of the season is Arizona, and that was at home.
13:15
Speaker 1: I mean, all their wins have been at home, really.
13:19
Speaker 1: Good gracious. Utah's first half margin plus 17.5. That's first
13:22
Speaker 1: in FBS. Their second half margin, only 1.3. That's 50-fit.
13:27
Speaker 1: BYU plays slow. They're 128th in plays per minute. That
13:30
Speaker 1: helps keep the score tight a little bit. Utah, as
13:35
Speaker 1: a favorite off of a win, they've covered 42 out
13:36
Speaker 1: of 65 games since 2016. Utah at home, they've covered
13:41
Speaker 1: 35 of 54 games. Now, that hasn't necessarily helped them
13:46
Speaker 1: in big-time spots. Take a look at last year's game
13:50
Speaker 1: against Texas Tech, right? BYU with a total from 45
13:53
Speaker 1: to 49.5. They've covered 12 of 16 since 2024. BYU
13:54
Speaker 1: off of a win is 18-8 against the spread. Satake
13:56
Speaker 1: as a dog off of a win, 18-10. Pretty good
13:57
Speaker 1: trends towards BYU. The radar is just completely split. Three
14:11
Speaker 1: of my models like BYU to cover, three of my
14:14
Speaker 1: models like Utah here, median edge of 0.9, negative 0.9.
14:20
Speaker 1: But this thing carries the upset tag on the rating
14:26
Speaker 1: that most frequently picks upsets, right? My WCE8, which is
14:31
Speaker 1: my eight factors that most heavily correlate with winning college
14:37
Speaker 1: football games, BYU has that by. 2 points. It has
14:42
Speaker 1: BYU winning. The stats model has Utah by 10.2. You
14:45
Speaker 1: saw that already. The model total is 51.6. I'm staying
14:49
Speaker 1: off the total. If you like Utah, the first half
14:52
Speaker 1: is probably the better way to play them. I'm going
14:54
Speaker 1: to go with BYU plus 5.5 here. I think if
14:59
Speaker 1: Utah wins, I'm looking at 24-20, something along those lines. Remember,
15:03
Speaker 1: Utah looked great in the first half against Cincinnati last week.
15:07
Speaker 1: 42-6 in the first half. Just smoked them. However, this
15:11
Speaker 1: is the same Utah team that had trouble with Colorado.
15:16
Speaker 1: Just remember. Just remember, all right? So BYU plus 5.5,
15:19
Speaker 1: that's the direction I'm going. I think we're going to
15:22
Speaker 1: see a tight, tight ballgame. Now, if you know which
15:26
Speaker 1: defensive line runs out of gas in the fourth quarter
15:28
Speaker 1: before you know what's for supper, I got the spot
15:30
Speaker 1: for you, okay? PrizePix lets you put that Saturday research
15:34
Speaker 1: to work. You build player picks lineups by choosing more
15:37
Speaker 1: or less on stat projections. Then you check out college
15:39
Speaker 1: football spreads and totals through team picks. They got all
15:42
Speaker 1: that stuff too, right? More than 20 million fans use
15:45
Speaker 1: prize picks. Almost all the U.S. can take part. Just
15:48
Speaker 1: make sure and check the page, Where Can I Play,
15:51
Speaker 1: over at their website for your state's options and age requirements.
15:54
Speaker 1: And for new customers, here's the deal, right? Use the
15:58
Speaker 1: promo code WCE. You play five bucks. If you win
16:02
Speaker 1: your first qualifying lineup, you get $ 150 in bonus lineups.
16:05
Speaker 1: Head over to prizepicks.com or My suggestion, download the app,
16:09
Speaker 1: enter that promo code WCE when you sign up. Now
16:12
Speaker 1: offer terms apply, make sure to keep it fun, and
16:15
Speaker 1: play responsibly. Want extra Winning Cures Everything content and a
16:20
Speaker 1: way to support the show directly? Head over to buymeacoffee.com
16:24
Speaker 1: slash winningcures and become part of the community today. Another
16:29
Speaker 1: one in the SEC, Georgia goes to Ole Miss Saturday night, 6.30 p.m.
16:33
Speaker 1: Central Time on ABC Georgia Live. a 3.5-point favorite on
16:37
Speaker 1: the road. Total is 56.5. Neither number has moved, right?
16:41
Speaker 1: Georgia 7-1, 5-2 against the spread. They are fifth in
16:44
Speaker 1: my power ratings. Ole Miss 6-2, 4-4 against the spread.
16:48
Speaker 1: They are eighth. Now, Ole Miss knocked Georgia out of
16:50
Speaker 1: the playoff last year in the Sugar Bowl 39-34 on
16:53
Speaker 1: New Year's Day. Kirby Smart has never won in Oxford.
16:57
Speaker 1: Ole Miss won there in 2024, 24-10 over Georgia. My
17:00
Speaker 1: projected score per the model, as you see on your screen, 30.1
17:05
Speaker 1: for Georgia, Ole Miss 26.9. Now, let's start off when
17:09
Speaker 1: Georgia is on offense. Georgia's biggest edge is pass explosiveness,
17:13
Speaker 1: 12th versus 120th. The Bulldogs rank 6th in passing PPA,
17:17
Speaker 1: average 9.7 yards per attempt. That's 7th. They run for 5.99
17:21
Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's 2nd in FBS. It's really, really good.
17:25
Speaker 1: Ole Miss' defense, 108th on passing downs, 103rd on third downs.
17:30
Speaker 1: I mean, the Rebels' secondary has decimated. Their safeties, Joseph
17:34
Speaker 1: and Preston and McCoy are out, along with some of
17:37
Speaker 1: their corners, right? Beavers and McCoy. Georgia's got problems, too, right?
17:41
Speaker 1: Chauncey Bowens is out. Dante Dowdle out for the season.
17:45
Speaker 1: You know, Nate Frazier is back, but he's been dinged
17:47
Speaker 1: up basically all season. As far as when Ole Miss
17:50
Speaker 1: is on offense, Georgia's defense is strong, which you should
17:54
Speaker 1: expect that from a Glenn Schumann and Kirby Smart defense, right?
17:57
Speaker 1: They rank fourth in passing explosiveness allowed offensively. third in
18:00
Speaker 1: rushing PPA, and they allow just 2.84 yards per carry.
18:04
Speaker 1: That's 10th in FBS. Ole Miss, we'll see if they're
18:09
Speaker 1: without their top-rated running back, Kawhi Lacey. He dislocated his shoulder. Again,
18:15
Speaker 1: injury reports Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, very important in the SEC.
18:19
Speaker 1: And they also have their offensive lineman, Emmanuel Faulkner, that's
18:22
Speaker 1: dealing with some dings here. So, Ole Miss' strength surpassing success.
18:27
Speaker 1: It ranks 8th And the red zone, it ranks second
18:30
Speaker 1: in touchdown rate. Georgia's weakness is also the red zone.
18:34
Speaker 1: The Bulldogs allowed touchdowns on 73% of red zone trips.
18:37
Speaker 1: That's 125th in FBS. Ole Miss ranks fifth in points
18:43
Speaker 1: per scoring opportunities, so this is where the Rebels can
18:45
Speaker 1: stay close. As far as hitting yardage, strength of schedule,
18:48
Speaker 1: and whatnot, Ole Miss has the best special teams unit
18:52
Speaker 1: in the country. They're first. But Georgia is pretty good, too.
18:55
Speaker 1: They're 11th. Rebels also commit nearly 8 penalties per game.
18:58
Speaker 1: That's 114th. They rank 110th in giveaways. What? Georgia, 26th
19:05
Speaker 1: in penalties. They don't commit many of those. Ole Miss
19:09
Speaker 1: has played the 4th toughest schedule. Georgia's opponents rank 97th
19:13
Speaker 1: in PBA margin. Pace is definitely a clash here. Ole
19:18
Speaker 1: Miss 6th in plays per minute. Georgia's 122nd, so we've
19:20
Speaker 1: got a pace war. I'm curious to see who is
19:25
Speaker 1: going to be able to control the tempo here. As
19:27
Speaker 1: far as trends, Ole Miss, after and over, they've covered
19:30
Speaker 1: 10 of 13 since 2024. The Rebels are 12-6 against
19:34
Speaker 1: the spread at home. Georgia, as a favorite off a win,
19:37
Speaker 1: they have covered only 8 of 23 since 2024. Ole Miss,
19:42
Speaker 1: on the other hand, off an ATS cover, they've gone
19:44
Speaker 1: under 25 times in 34 games, and the model total
19:47
Speaker 1: is 57, so I'm staying off of that. off that
19:50
Speaker 1: total as far as my ratings radar this is a
19:54
Speaker 1: best bet on there five of six models with a
19:57
Speaker 1: median edge of 4.3 my WCE8 has Georgia by only 0.6
20:01
Speaker 1: my situation ratings and my power ratings have got Ole
20:04
Speaker 1: Miss favored I it feels weird I I'm going with
20:09
Speaker 1: the Rebels. They've got a real legitimate home field advantage here.
20:14
Speaker 1: Give me Ole Miss plus 3.5. I think they can
20:16
Speaker 1: win the game outright, but certainly if I'm getting plus 3.5.
20:20
Speaker 1: But if I've got to go with the score here,
20:22
Speaker 1: Ole Miss 27-24 over Georgia, and then things are going
20:26
Speaker 1: to get real crazy trying to figure out who is
20:30
Speaker 1: going to be in Atlanta for the SEC Championship game
20:32
Speaker 1: for what appears to be the last installment of that.
20:36
Speaker 1: But as far as this game, Ole Miss plus 3.5.
20:40
Speaker 1: More SEC. Saturday, 5.15 p.m. Central Time on ESPN. It's
20:46
Speaker 1: God's Time Zone. Kentucky at Tennessee. Tennessee favored by 6.5.
20:51
Speaker 1: The total is 50.5. Neither of these numbers has moved
20:54
Speaker 1: from the open. Kentucky is 7-1 in Will Stein's first year.
20:58
Speaker 1: They are alone atop the SEC. Yeah, I guess, well,
21:05
Speaker 1: tied with Georgia. Whatever you want to call it. 6-1
21:09
Speaker 1: against the spread. Well, 6-1-1. They were number 15 in
21:12
Speaker 1: my power ratings. Their only loss was to Alabama. They
21:15
Speaker 1: led at halftime. They got demolished in the second half
21:17
Speaker 1: ever since then. Things have been smooth. Very, very smooth.
21:21
Speaker 1: Tennessee 6-2 on the season. 4-3 against the spread. Well,
21:25
Speaker 1: 4-3-1 against the spread. They are 11th in my power ratings.
21:28
Speaker 1: They've gone to the under in five of their seven games.
21:33
Speaker 1: Excuse me. What was that final one? I guess it
21:41
Speaker 1: was six of their eight games. No, no, no. It
21:43
Speaker 1: was five of their eight games. Excuse me. The last
21:46
Speaker 1: one went over. Both teams are off of a bye here.
21:48
Speaker 1: Tennessee's last game was a 27-24 loss at South Carolina.
21:53
Speaker 1: Mark Stoops went 2-11 against Tennessee. Kentucky hasn't won in
21:55
Speaker 1: Knoxville since 2020. Before that, I couldn't even tell you.
22:00
Speaker 1: There's no way I could even begin to try and
22:02
Speaker 1: tell you. My model's projected score on this one Tennessee 30.3,
22:08
Speaker 1: Kentucky 22.8, so it's got a Tennessee cover here. Let's
22:11
Speaker 1: start when Kentucky has the ball. Kentucky can run it, right?
22:16
Speaker 1: Wildcats ranked third in rushing success, 32nd in rushing explosiveness.
22:19
Speaker 1: Against the Tennessee defense, it's ranked 123rd in rushing explosiveness allowed. C.J. Baxter,
22:26
Speaker 1: he's on the injury report. He's questionable. I have got
22:29
Speaker 1: to imagine he's going to play in this game, right?
22:31
Speaker 1: Wouldn't you? Like, you'd have to imagine that, right? Through
22:34
Speaker 1: the air, Tennessee wins this thing. The Vols allow just 5.6
22:37
Speaker 1: yards per attempt. That's fourth in FBS. They are third
22:39
Speaker 1: in havoc rate. Kentucky is 115th on third down against
22:43
Speaker 1: Tennessee's 24th-ranked defense. Tennessee missing three defensive backs for the season, though.
22:48
Speaker 1: Secondary isn't as strong as the ranking maybe suggests, but, boy,
22:51
Speaker 1: they can get after the quarterback. They can absolutely get
22:53
Speaker 1: after the quarterback. As far as when Tennessee's on offense,
22:58
Speaker 1: better on the ground, right? 28th in rushing success. Kentucky's
23:01
Speaker 1: defense is 95th in that metric. and Kentucky's defense is
23:05
Speaker 1: 14th in rushing explosiveness. Neither passing game is very good,
23:08
Speaker 1: but Tennessee ranks 115th in passing success. Kentucky's defense is 107th.
23:13
Speaker 1: Kentucky is last on passing downs, 137th. Tennessee ranks 4th
23:18
Speaker 1: in red zone conversion percentage, 96% against a Kentucky defense
23:22
Speaker 1: that's 112th. So when Tennessee gets down there, they'll probably
23:26
Speaker 1: be able to kick some field goals. If you remember
23:27
Speaker 1: the Alabama game, I mean, that thing should have been
23:29
Speaker 1: put away way before it was. But Tennessee was held
23:33
Speaker 1: two field goals, and to their credit, they made them.
23:36
Speaker 1: Kentucky missing their top-rated outside linebacker, Sam Green, and two
23:40
Speaker 1: defensive backs here. As far as hitting yardage, strength of schedule,
23:43
Speaker 1: et cetera, Tennessee's got the special teams edge. Fourth against 105th. 105th. Lord.
23:51
Speaker 1: Kentucky 11th in penalties, third in turnover margin, plus 1.63.
23:54
Speaker 1: Tennessee is 104th in penalties. Now, Kentucky, off of a win.
23:59
Speaker 1: This is going all the way back. 40 of 63.
24:02
Speaker 1: Since 2016, as a dog off of a win, 27-14.
24:06
Speaker 1: That's a big-time trend. Tennessee is a home favorite. They
24:10
Speaker 1: have covered only 3-12 since 2024. Hypel in November is
24:12
Speaker 1: 11-19 against the spread. Now the counter here, Tennessee with
24:14
Speaker 1: a total from 50-54.5. 8-2 against the spread since 2021.
24:16
Speaker 1: The radar is split here, right? My ratings radar. Three
24:31
Speaker 1: out of six go both ways. You got a median
24:35
Speaker 1: edge of 0.1. My WCE8 factors says Tennessee minus seven.
24:41
Speaker 1: So when the models are awash, I kind of go
24:42
Speaker 1: to the trends, and the trends favor Kentucky here. The
24:45
Speaker 1: model total is 52.5. While Tennessee off a buy has
24:49
Speaker 1: gone under 14 times in 20, I'm staying off the total.
24:55
Speaker 1: I'm staying off the total. I'll take Kentucky to stay
24:58
Speaker 1: within this number. I think they're going to put a
25:00
Speaker 1: lot into this one, I would pay attention to when
25:04
Speaker 1: Kentucky plays Florida coming up soon. That might be one
25:09
Speaker 1: where there's nothing left in the tank. But I'll take
25:12
Speaker 1: Kentucky plus 6.5 here. I mean, even something like 27-21
25:16
Speaker 1: Tennessee gets me there. I think Tennessee is going to
25:19
Speaker 1: be able to run the football quite a bit here.
25:22
Speaker 1: But man, you give me a freshman quarterback with Kentucky's
25:28
Speaker 1: lines of scrimmage and I'm just curious. What all are
25:33
Speaker 1: they going to ask him to do? What are they
25:36
Speaker 1: going to ask that Tennessee quarterback to do? McIntyre is not...
25:42
Speaker 1: He ain't the best. He ain't the best. I'll say that.
25:45
Speaker 1: He might be the best that they've got, but we'll see.
25:48
Speaker 1: I mean, we might see some Faison Brandon in this game.
25:51
Speaker 1: Either way, as far as the pick for the show,
25:53
Speaker 1: Kentucky plus six and a half. That is the direction
25:56
Speaker 1: that I'm going to go. All right, we're halfway home.
25:59
Speaker 1: If you ain't hit it yet, hit that like button.
26:01
Speaker 1: Looks like this. Subscribe to the channel and, of course,
26:04
Speaker 1: jump in the comments. Tell me which of these first
26:06
Speaker 1: five picks you think I got wrong. Like, I read
26:09
Speaker 1: all the comments. I would be glad to hear about
26:11
Speaker 1: it Sunday when you were right. But I don't want
26:13
Speaker 1: to hear it if you weren't in the comments.
26:15
Speaker 2: Hi, this is TJ Reeves of Three Dog Thursday with
26:18
Speaker 2: my partner Jason Powers. We're right here on the Winning
26:20
Speaker 2: Cures Everything YouTube platform as we love talking underdogs each
26:25
Speaker 2: and every week. A 19-9-2 month of October that finished
26:30
Speaker 2: up with outright winners Baylor, Clemson, and also USC at
26:36
Speaker 2: the Coliseum. What's going to happen this week? BYU's an
26:39
Speaker 2: underdog in the Holy War at Utah. How about Alabama's
26:43
Speaker 2: an underdog to LSU? And in the nightcap, the number
26:45
Speaker 2: one team in the country, Miami's an underdog at Notre Dame.
26:48
Speaker 2: We'll be discussing those games and much more where? On
26:51
Speaker 2: Three Dog Thursday, every Thursday, right here on the Winning
26:55
Speaker 2: Cures Everything platform.
26:56
Speaker 1: Texas at Missouri Saturday, 11 a.m. Central Time. God's time
27:01
Speaker 1: zone on ESPN Texas. Minus two and a half. The
27:04
Speaker 1: line moved to three and a half earlier. Dropped back down.
27:07
Speaker 1: The total has dropped from 48.5 all the way to 43.5.
27:11
Speaker 1: Texas 6-2, but they are 3-5 against the spread. I've
27:15
Speaker 1: got them third in my power ratings. Missouri 6-2. They
27:19
Speaker 1: are 4-3 against the spread. 14th, they've gone to the
27:22
Speaker 1: under in five of their seven games. Excuse me, in
27:27
Speaker 1: six of their eight games. Now, these teams have not
27:30
Speaker 1: met since the 2017 Texas Bowl. Texas hasn't been to
27:33
Speaker 1: Columbia since 2011. That's a long time. Missouri's running back
27:38
Speaker 1: Ahmad Hardy returned last week. He missed seven games before that.
27:42
Speaker 1: My projected score here is Texas 26.9, Missouri 23.7. Both
27:46
Speaker 1: teams have got a big game next week. Texas goes
27:49
Speaker 1: to LSU. Missouri goes to Georgia. I would say there's
27:54
Speaker 1: a bit of a look ahead on both sides. Once
27:56
Speaker 1: you get to this point of the season, there is
27:58
Speaker 1: no look ahead. At least not in the SEC. In
28:01
Speaker 1: this kind of a race, you better take care of
28:03
Speaker 1: business right in front of you. All right, let's start
28:06
Speaker 1: when Texas is on offense here. Biggest edge is going
28:09
Speaker 1: to be Havoc here. Missouri's defense ranks 14th. Texas, 125th
28:13
Speaker 1: at allowing Havoc. That's rough. Longhorns can't run it. They're
28:19
Speaker 1: 106th in yards per carry, 119th in offensive line yards,
28:22
Speaker 1: and 104th in stuff rate allowed against a Missouri defense
28:25
Speaker 1: that ranks 21st, 30th, and 33rd in those categories. So
28:30
Speaker 1: this Missouri defense should be able to handle business. The
28:34
Speaker 1: entry list is pretty new here. we already knew about
28:37
Speaker 1: Trevor Goosby, the offensive lineman for Texas. He's out for
28:39
Speaker 1: the season. Running back Hollywood Smothers, questionable. We'll see if
28:42
Speaker 1: he's back this week. And the receivers, Ryan Wingo and
28:45
Speaker 1: Cam Coleman, both questionable here. Now, for when Missouri is
28:49
Speaker 1: on offense, Texas has the edge here, which makes sense.
28:53
Speaker 1: It's a Wilmush Jam defense, right? And going up against
28:57
Speaker 1: Chip Lindsey, like, I get it. But also, Missouri's offense
29:01
Speaker 1: has been okay this year. Like, not bad. Longhorns ranked
29:03
Speaker 1: 10th in rushing success allowed it. Missouri's offense, 124th. But,
29:09
Speaker 1: I mean, you got Ahmad Hardy back. Roberts has been
29:11
Speaker 1: really good. You know, we'll see. Texas, they allow 5.4
29:15
Speaker 1: yards per attempt. That's third in FBS. They rank 13th
29:18
Speaker 1: in passing success allowed. Missouri's offensive line ranks 101st in
29:21
Speaker 1: line yards. Texas, missing both of their starting edge rushers.
29:25
Speaker 1: Colin Simmons, their top-rated player, and Richard Wesley are out.
29:28
Speaker 1: Missouri gets into scoring range quite a bit. They rank
29:32
Speaker 1: 8th in scoring opportunities per game. This one you get
29:34
Speaker 1: a first down inside the opponent 40-yard line. But they
29:37
Speaker 1: are 121st in red zone touchdown rates, so they don't finish.
29:40
Speaker 1: drives at a high clip uh as far as hidden
29:42
Speaker 1: yardage strength of schedule and whatnot texas got the special
29:46
Speaker 1: teams edge 28th against 93rd here um it also gives
29:50
Speaker 1: the ball away a lot right uh texas 110th in
29:54
Speaker 1: giveaways 100th in turnover margin Missouri is 21st in turnover margin.
29:58
Speaker 1: They're only number eight in giveaways per game. So Austin
30:01
Speaker 1: Simmons has been pretty good at not giving the ball away,
30:03
Speaker 1: even if his turnover play rate is not great. Right?
30:11
Speaker 1: There have been times that he wanted to give the
30:13
Speaker 1: other team the ball. Hadn't happened yet, though. Every trend
30:17
Speaker 1: here points to Missouri. Drinkwood's in November. He's covered 19
30:19
Speaker 1: of 26 since 2016. Missouri has a home dog, 13-6-1.
30:20
Speaker 1: Texas on the road. They've covered only 2 of 10
30:28
Speaker 1: since 2024. And Texas, as a conference favorite, is 8
30:32
Speaker 1: and 15 against the number since 2021. The counter is
30:37
Speaker 1: the model here. The radar was lean to Texas. 4
30:39
Speaker 1: out of 6 of my models lean Texas. And with
30:43
Speaker 1: that line back at 2.5, I mean, the edge is
30:45
Speaker 1: back here. My situation model has got it Texas minus 4.6.
30:50
Speaker 1: My WCE8 has got it Texas minus 4.3 power ratings.
30:54
Speaker 1: are minus 5.5, and the stats are minus 3.2. So
30:57
Speaker 1: every listed model clears that 2.5. The model total is 50.6.
31:02
Speaker 1: That's 7.1 over. But the undertrends disagree, so I'm staying
31:06
Speaker 1: off that total as well. I'm taking the model side. Like,
31:10
Speaker 1: this is one of those games where if it goes
31:12
Speaker 1: to 3.5, I'm going to flip to Missouri. If it's 2.5,
31:15
Speaker 1: I'll go with Texas. I don't feel great about it
31:18
Speaker 1: either way, right? So I'll go, you know, Texas minus
31:23
Speaker 1: two and a half, and I think it's probably 27
31:24
Speaker 1: to 24 kind of game. It would not shock me
31:29
Speaker 1: at all to see Missouri win this ball game. But
31:33
Speaker 1: I also know that Missouri, for as long as this
31:37
Speaker 1: team has been around, they do not beat better football teams.
31:42
Speaker 1: And Texas has got way better football players. So I'm
31:46
Speaker 1: going to go with what I know with Missouri. They
31:49
Speaker 1: always get close. You know, we can say that the
31:52
Speaker 1: Florida game, you know, bucked the trend. I don't believe
31:56
Speaker 1: it because I saw this Missouri team go to Ole
31:59
Speaker 1: Miss and just get completely walloped. But I think Texas
32:04
Speaker 1: will be able to do enough here. Give me a
32:06
Speaker 1: 27-24 Texas win. Texas minus two and a half is
32:10
Speaker 1: my pick. Oregon at Ohio State. This one's Saturday, 2.30 p.m.
32:15
Speaker 1: Central Time on CBS. Ohio State minus 7.5. The total
32:21
Speaker 1: went from 45.5 to 48.5. It has come back down
32:23
Speaker 1: to 46.5. Now this is the backup quarterback bowl. Dante
32:28
Speaker 1: Moore out for the year, so Dylan Raul is going
32:30
Speaker 1: to start for Oregon. Ohio State played last week without
32:32
Speaker 1: Julian Sayen. Freshman Luke Fahey was under center. They lost
32:36
Speaker 1: 30-18 at USC for their second loss of the season.
32:39
Speaker 1: Oregon also recently fired their offensive coordinator, Drew Meringer, before
32:44
Speaker 1: last week's game against Kansas. Northwestern, Oregon 5-3 on the season,
32:48
Speaker 1: 2-5-1 against the spread. They are 10th right now in
32:52
Speaker 1: my power ratings, which I'm sure some of you are,
32:54
Speaker 1: how could they possibly be 10th in your power ratings?
32:57
Speaker 1: What is, what are you talking about? They still have
33:02
Speaker 1: a loaded roster, and if they ever get it figured out,
33:06
Speaker 1: they can open a can on anybody, right? My projected
33:09
Speaker 1: score here, this is the stats model, has Ohio State 33.2,
33:13
Speaker 1: Oregon 19.1. But remember, those ratings include both starters. Yeah,
33:21
Speaker 1: that's the way it goes. That's the way it goes.
33:23
Speaker 1: Let's start when Oregon is on offense. This is a
33:28
Speaker 1: problem for Oregon. Now, if Ohio State's defense plays like
33:31
Speaker 1: they did last week, maybe that's not a problem. But
33:34
Speaker 1: Ohio State's defense is 12th in line yards. Oregon's offensive
33:37
Speaker 1: line is 113th in offensive line yards rushing. Not good.
33:43
Speaker 1: Ohio State allows 5.1 yards per attempt. That's first in FBS.
33:48
Speaker 1: That's as far as the passing game is concerned. And
33:51
Speaker 1: Oregon's passing success ranks 68th against the Buckeyes' 4th. Oregon
33:55
Speaker 1: missing their receivers, Jeremiah McClellan, Messiah Hampton. Both running backs
34:00
Speaker 1: are questionable. I'm sure you've been keeping up with what's
34:04
Speaker 1: going on with all of the racing and whatnot. Kids
34:10
Speaker 1: getting arrested. I don't know who's I don't know who's
34:12
Speaker 1: going to play a wide receiver. I don't know if
34:14
Speaker 1: it'll be DeCorean Moore. I don't know if Evan Stewart
34:17
Speaker 1: might play. Who knows? Who knows? Oregon does get into
34:21
Speaker 1: scoring range. They rank 6th in scoring opportunities, but they
34:25
Speaker 1: are 107th on third down, so need a lot of
34:27
Speaker 1: good standard down stuff going on here. Ohio State's offense
34:30
Speaker 1: against Oregon's defense, on that part, their offense ranks 21st
34:34
Speaker 1: in past explosiveness against Oregon's 108th. So what they need
34:38
Speaker 1: Fahey to do is throw the ball to Jeremiah Smith.
34:43
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith is going to have to scheme some stuff
34:46
Speaker 1: to where that kid can just throw it up and
34:48
Speaker 1: let him go get it, right? The Buckeyes averaged 10.7
34:51
Speaker 1: yards per attempt. That's first nationally. Again, all of these
34:54
Speaker 1: numbers are with Sayen, though, and he's out. The Ohio
34:57
Speaker 1: State numbers are the least reliable on this whole card.
35:00
Speaker 1: Dante Moore's at least been out for a little while. Like,
35:04
Speaker 1: we've only got one game, and it didn't look good
35:05
Speaker 1: against USC. There was no sense of urgency whatsoever with
35:09
Speaker 1: that team. Anyway. Neither here nor there. Oregon's defense, they
35:13
Speaker 1: do have one real strength. They're 13th in rushing explosiveness
35:15
Speaker 1: allowed against a Buckeye run game that's ranked 102nd in
35:18
Speaker 1: that metric. Ohio State, they are missing their running back
35:21
Speaker 1: Jacoby Jackson, receiver Brock Boyd, and the tight end LeBlanc.
35:25
Speaker 1: As far as hidden yardage is concerned, Ohio State's first
35:29
Speaker 1: half margin plus 14.9. That's fifth in FBS. Oregon's is
35:33
Speaker 1: minus 3.2. So their first half stuff, Oregon can't get
35:38
Speaker 1: it figured out in the first half. They looked pretty
35:39
Speaker 1: good in the second half last week, though. Oregon is
35:42
Speaker 1: number 120 in giveaways per game. That is against the
35:46
Speaker 1: 10th toughest schedule, and its opponents rank second in the
35:49
Speaker 1: country in PPA margin. Ohio State's opponents rank 86th. It
35:54
Speaker 1: is night and day different in how good the teams
35:58
Speaker 1: are that they've played. Ohio State has played some talented teams.
36:01
Speaker 1: They have not played teams that really have it all together.
36:04
Speaker 1: Day after and under, this is Ryan Day, and we're
36:07
Speaker 1: moving into the trends now, but after and under, He's
36:10
Speaker 1: covered 30-44 since 2016. Ohio State, off of a spread loss,
36:11
Speaker 1: has covered 9-11 since 2024. Ryan Day at home, 31-17-1. Oregon,
36:13
Speaker 1: as a dog, 11-19-3 against the spread. But the counter
36:14
Speaker 1: to that, another trend, Lanning, off of a win, 29-19-1 ATS.
36:36
Speaker 1: The radar has a best bet here. Six of six
36:38
Speaker 1: models with a median edge of 6.6, but the models
36:41
Speaker 1: were built with saying and more, right? I still like
36:44
Speaker 1: Ohio State because, like, Oregon, with the coordinator change and
36:51
Speaker 1: all the receivers and the quarterback, da-da-da-da-da, they got to
36:55
Speaker 1: feeling good at home against Northwestern. There's a massive talent
36:58
Speaker 1: difference here. This is not a play that I feel
37:03
Speaker 1: great about because who... possibly could know what to expect
37:07
Speaker 1: from either one of these teams. For the total, the
37:09
Speaker 1: model says 52.3. But with two backup quarterbacks and days
37:15
Speaker 1: under trends, I kind of lean towards the under 46.5 here.
37:18
Speaker 1: I wouldn't worry too much with this. I think Ohio
37:23
Speaker 1: State is going to play pissed off. Ohio State minus 7.5
37:27
Speaker 1: is my prediction here. And I'm thinking 24-13. I think
37:30
Speaker 1: the defense really shows up here. Oregon traveling east again.
37:37
Speaker 1: I don't feel good about any of this, but this
37:42
Speaker 1: is two really talented teams that are still trying to
37:45
Speaker 1: figure things out because things have been changing around them.
37:49
Speaker 1: So my prediction right now, 24-13, I'll take Ohio State
37:51
Speaker 1: minus 7.5. Are you tired of sore knees or joints
37:57
Speaker 1: slowing you down? Ghost Leaves uses built-in kinesiology tape technology
38:01
Speaker 1: to give you support, reduce pain, and help you recover faster.
38:05
Speaker 1: Use code WCE for 15% off over at ghostleaves.com. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
38:12
Speaker 1: and more. The latest WCE merch is now available. Support
38:17
Speaker 1: and rep your favorite college football show today. Just visit winningcureseverything.com
38:21
Speaker 1: slash store. If you can't watch the show live, no problem.
38:26
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything audio podcast and never
38:29
Speaker 1: miss an episode. Of course, make sure that you leave
38:31
Speaker 1: a five-star review on And don't forget, it's available everywhere
38:35
Speaker 1: you get podcasts. Late Friday game in the Big 12,
38:41
Speaker 1: TCU at Arizona. This one's 9.15 p.m. Central Time, Friday
38:45
Speaker 1: night on ESPN. It's God's time zone, of course. Arizona,
38:49
Speaker 1: minus 8.5, down a point from minus 9.5. The total
38:51
Speaker 1: is 43.5. It's a very low total. Arizona, 6-2, and
38:53
Speaker 1: good gracious, they are 3-5 against the spread of this season.
39:03
Speaker 1: 25th in my ratings. TCU 4-4. They are 2-5-1 against
39:07
Speaker 1: the spread. 42nd in my power ratings. Big difference there.
39:11
Speaker 1: Its defense allows just 13.9 points per game. That is
39:14
Speaker 1: 6th in the country. TCU has gone under in every
39:18
Speaker 1: one of their games this year. It's fairly impressive, really,
39:22
Speaker 1: when you think about it. Arizona's five-game win streak? That
39:26
Speaker 1: thing's gone. Ended at Texas Tech last week, 34-26. Noah
39:28
Speaker 1: Fafita's threw for 417 yards, and they still lost. My
39:33
Speaker 1: projected score, as you can see on the screen per
39:35
Speaker 1: the stats model, Arizona 28.3, TCU 18.9. So this is
39:42
Speaker 1: pretty close to what the original spread was at 9.5.
39:44
Speaker 1: We'll start when TCU is on offense. It's ugly. It's
39:49
Speaker 1: ugly for TCU. Arizona's defense ranks 8th in passing success.
39:52
Speaker 1: TCU's offense ranks 123rd. TCU also 123rd on passing downs.
39:57
Speaker 1: Their run game is even worse, 129th in yards per carry,
40:02
Speaker 1: 125th in rushing PPA. Their top-rated running back, Jeremy Payne,
40:05
Speaker 1: he's out, been out for a little while. That's the
40:08
Speaker 1: way it goes, along with their offensive lineman, Cade Bennett,
40:10
Speaker 1: and receivers Terry Shelton and Cooper Reed. TCU does average 8.6
40:14
Speaker 1: yards per attempt. That's 23rd. Arizona's defense is shorthanded. Their
40:19
Speaker 1: top-rated corner, Cole, and their other corner, Griffin, are both out.
40:23
Speaker 1: TCU's red zone is the problem. 103rd in touchdown rate,
40:27
Speaker 1: 112th in points per scoring opportunity, so they can't finish drives. Now,
40:31
Speaker 1: when Arizona is on offense, I mean, it's strength on strength.
40:34
Speaker 1: Arizona throws for 9.1 yards per attempt. That's 16th in
40:37
Speaker 1: the country against a TCU pass defense that ranks 13th.
40:40
Speaker 1: Arizona's passing success is 7th. TCU's defensive success allowed is 20th. Now,
40:44
Speaker 1: Arizona converts 54.7% on 3rd down. That's third in FBS.
40:50
Speaker 1: TCU is number 15 as far as the third down defense.
40:55
Speaker 1: RJ Mosley, who got hurt last week, he's questionable. Running
40:58
Speaker 1: back Ismail Mahdi, he's out. TCU's defense is going to
41:01
Speaker 1: miss their linebacker Short and Thiessen. They're missing corners McGee
41:05
Speaker 1: and Sims here. Sorry, Sims is safety. Either way, defensive back.
41:10
Speaker 1: As far as hitting yardage and strength of schedule, neither
41:13
Speaker 1: team protects the ball at all. TCU is 120th in giveaways.
41:14
Speaker 1: Arizona ranks 108th in takeaways. Arizona's opponents rank 105th in
41:20
Speaker 1: PPA margin. So, you know, that 6-2 record came against
41:24
Speaker 1: a really, really soft path. Brent Brennan off of an
41:27
Speaker 1: ATS loss. He's only covered 12 of 40 since 2016.
41:31
Speaker 1: That's a trend that certainly points towards TCU. The counter
41:36
Speaker 1: is that TCU is a dog off of a win.
41:37
Speaker 1: 3-8-1 against the spread since 2021. My ratings radar was
41:44
Speaker 1: a lean with the upset tag when it was at 9.5%.
41:47
Speaker 1: My WCE8 has TCU winning this game by. 2. Situationally,
41:52
Speaker 1: it's got Arizona by 7. Power ratings have Arizona by 7.3.
41:56
Speaker 1: Stats has Arizona by 9.4. At 8.5, the stats model
42:00
Speaker 1: no longer clears the number, so that's thinner than it was.
42:04
Speaker 1: I'm still going to take the defense and the points here.
42:07
Speaker 1: The model total is 47.2. TCU's unders and Brennan's home
42:12
Speaker 1: under trends point the other way, so I'm going to
42:13
Speaker 1: stay off of that total. As far as a pick,
42:16
Speaker 1: TCU plus 8.5 is my prediction. I don't think Arizona
42:21
Speaker 1: is going to put up a ton of points here.
42:23
Speaker 1: I'm looking at 20-14 Arizona. I think they get the win,
42:27
Speaker 1: but I think this thing is super close and TCU
42:30
Speaker 1: finds a way to drag them into the mud. But
42:33
Speaker 1: you're coming off of a big-time letdown for Arizona. I'll
42:37
Speaker 1: take TCU to cover, plus 8.5. Oklahoma at Florida. Saturday, 6.45 p.m.
42:43
Speaker 1: Central Time on the SEC Network. Course Guide's time zone.
42:47
Speaker 1: You guys know how this works. Florida, a 6.5 point favorite.
42:52
Speaker 1: The total has come down 48.5 to 46.5. This is
42:58
Speaker 1: the top play on my ratings radar. And I don't
43:03
Speaker 1: get it. Oklahoma started the season in the top 10.
43:04
Speaker 1: They are 4-4. They are 3-5 against the spread. They
43:06
Speaker 1: are 26th in my power ratings. Florida, 5-3. 4-3-1 against
43:07
Speaker 1: the spread. Sorry, 4-4 against the spread. In John Summerall's
43:19
Speaker 1: first year, I've got him power-rated 40th. A lot of
43:24
Speaker 1: people would think I'm crazy for that. But both teams
43:26
Speaker 1: lost last week. Oklahoma got run over by South Carolina, 42-25.
43:29
Speaker 1: Florida lost to Georgia, 27-8. My projected score here has
43:30
Speaker 1: Florida 27.1, Oklahoma 25.4. And I guess on the screen, 25.5
43:32
Speaker 1: is what it is. Let's start when Oklahoma is on offense.
43:46
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's offense is a problem. They rank 137th in rushing PPA,
43:52
Speaker 1: 134th in yards per carry at 3.11, 126th in offensive
43:57
Speaker 1: line yards. Oklahoma scores touchdowns on only 35% of their
44:00
Speaker 1: red zone trips, 136th in that metric. Receiver Terrell Harris
44:04
Speaker 1: is out along with the offensive lineman Jake Mikula. Y'all
44:09
Speaker 1: correct me in the comments. Feel free to bash me.
44:13
Speaker 1: I should know better. And then Eddie Pierre Lewis. I'm
44:18
Speaker 1: so bad at these. God. The one place Oklahoma can't
44:21
Speaker 1: move it is through the air, right? They're center 74th
44:24
Speaker 1: in passing success against a Florida defense that's 101st. Florida's
44:27
Speaker 1: defense is 20th in havoc, but Oklahoma's offense allows the
44:30
Speaker 1: 90th ranked havoc rate. So, like, Florida may be able
44:36
Speaker 1: to get after the quarterback, and if they do, yeah,
44:40
Speaker 1: you could see interceptions. You could see all kind of
44:41
Speaker 1: stuff here. As far as when Florida is on offense here,
44:45
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's defense is elite. It ranks 13th in rushing success allowed,
44:49
Speaker 1: second on third down at 23.6% conversions, and fourth in
44:53
Speaker 1: red zone conversion allowed. Florida's offense is 93rd in rushing success,
44:58
Speaker 1: and if they can't get going with Jaden Baugh, they
45:03
Speaker 1: are left to do crazy stuff with the quarterbacks. I mean,
45:06
Speaker 1: you all saw the interception from Philo last week. I mean,
45:08
Speaker 1: what in the... Anyway, Oklahoma's secondary defense Kind of gutted.
45:13
Speaker 1: Defensive backs Eli Bowen, Dakota Fields, and Jacoby Johnson are out.
45:17
Speaker 1: Peyton Bowen is a game-time call. Pay attention to your
45:21
Speaker 1: injury reports this week. Florida ninth in passing explosiveness, 26th
45:26
Speaker 1: at 8.4 yards per attempt. So that's where the Gators
45:29
Speaker 1: are going to attack. We'll see if Oklahoma can take
45:31
Speaker 1: advantage of that. As far as hidden yardage... Strength of
45:35
Speaker 1: schedule and whatnot, Florida's second-ranked special teams, but it ranks
45:38
Speaker 1: 114th in penalties at 7.88 per game and 127th in
45:42
Speaker 1: the country in penalty yards. Oklahoma's biggest enemy is itself.
45:46
Speaker 1: It ranks 131st in turnover margin, 136th in giveaways at 2.14
45:51
Speaker 1: per game. Oklahoma's played the sixth-toughest schedule, and Florida's ranks
45:56
Speaker 1: 124th at Sagarin. Boy, that's weird. Opponent PBA margin's a
46:04
Speaker 1: lot closer. Like a whole lot closer. Number 33 for Florida,
46:09
Speaker 1: number 23 for Oklahoma. And that makes a little more sense. Anyway,
46:14
Speaker 1: Summerall in conference games, he's covered 27-40 since 2021. He
46:16
Speaker 1: has 37-21-1 overall. The counter is that Florida, as a favorite,
46:18
Speaker 1: has covered only 10-30 since 2021. Venables has gone under
46:20
Speaker 1: 16 times in 22 games. But the model total is 52.5.
46:22
Speaker 1: I'm going to stay off of that. This is... My
46:36
Speaker 1: top best bet per the models. Five out of the
46:39
Speaker 1: six models have a median edge of 7.3. My situation,
46:44
Speaker 1: my power ratings have got Oklahoma favored. My stats model
46:47
Speaker 1: has Florida by only 1.7. Even my WCE8 factors only
46:51
Speaker 1: has Florida at minus 6.2. If Oklahoma can hang on
46:55
Speaker 1: to the football, which is a coin flip, then the
46:58
Speaker 1: game should be a coin flip. And you're getting six
47:01
Speaker 1: and a half, right? So... If they start turning the
47:05
Speaker 1: ball over like they have been, we'll see. You know
47:08
Speaker 1: how we talked some about the fired coach bump? Oklahoma
47:12
Speaker 1: did go ahead and fire Ben Arbuckle. Does that change
47:17
Speaker 1: the way that the offense plays? Maybe? I don't know.
47:23
Speaker 1: I don't know. My projection here, I think Oklahoma upsets them.
47:27
Speaker 1: I think things have gotten weird in Gainesville a little bit.
47:30
Speaker 1: Give me Oklahoma 20-17. I will take Oklahoma plus 6.5.
47:35
Speaker 1: This feels very coin flippy, and 6.5 is a lot
47:37
Speaker 1: of points. All right, last game of the show, and
47:41
Speaker 1: we are going back over to the Big 12 for
47:43
Speaker 1: this one. Cincinnati at Houston. This one, 2.30 p.m. Central Time,
47:46
Speaker 1: Saturday on Fox. Houston, 10.5-point favorite. Total moved up a
47:51
Speaker 1: point to 62.5. Cincy, 5-3 against the spread. They are
47:53
Speaker 1: 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the spread. 48th in my ratings.
48:01
Speaker 1: Just lost to Utah 49-25. Held them to only seven
48:05
Speaker 1: points in the second half. I mean, got to come
48:08
Speaker 1: up with a win somewhere, right? I mean, it was
48:11
Speaker 1: 42-6 at the half. But, hey, still a huge win
48:14
Speaker 1: over Texas Tech a couple weeks ago. You're still laughing
48:16
Speaker 1: at Cody Campbell, I guess. Houston 6-2, 3-5 against the spread.
48:23
Speaker 1: I mean, good gracious. Oh, since he is 4-4 against
48:25
Speaker 1: the spread, excuse me. My apologies, everyone. My apologies. I
48:30
Speaker 1: wrote that down wrong. Anyway, Houston 6-2. They are 3-5
48:35
Speaker 1: against the spread coming off of a bye after a
48:38
Speaker 1: 21-13 loss at Utah. These are two good offenses, two
48:43
Speaker 1: kind of leaky defenses. Willie Fritz's Houston team has the
48:46
Speaker 1: best offensive success rate in FBS. My projected score here
48:50
Speaker 1: is 34.3 to 22.1 in favor of Houston. Let's start
48:54
Speaker 1: when Cincy has the ball. The biggest number is points
48:58
Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. Like, can you finish drives? Cincinnati is 16th.
49:03
Speaker 1: Houston's defense is 132nd. The Bearcats can run the ball. 5.99
49:07
Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's second in FBS. Fourth-ranked rushing PPA.
49:11
Speaker 1: Fourth-ranked rushing explosiveness. Cincinnati also ranks third in line yards.
49:16
Speaker 1: Cincy scores touchdowns on 86% of the red zone trips.
49:19
Speaker 1: That is first in FBS against the Houston defense that
49:23
Speaker 1: ranks 123rd. The catch is that their top rated offensive lineman, Tayo,
49:28
Speaker 1: is out. Correct me in the comments. Anyway, along with
49:32
Speaker 1: their receiver, Contosis, and their tight end, Witherspoon Houston, is
49:37
Speaker 1: of course missing their defensive lineman Demarion Thomas and Carmelo Brooks,
49:41
Speaker 1: who is actually suspended here. Now when Houston is on offense,
49:45
Speaker 1: Houston's offense is better in every area. They rank second
49:48
Speaker 1: on passing downs against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 120th.
49:51
Speaker 1: They are second in passing success against a unit that
49:54
Speaker 1: ranks 118th. Houston converts 60% on third down, that's first
49:58
Speaker 1: in FBS, against Cincinnati's 106th ranked defense. Cincinnati, missing safety
50:03
Speaker 1: Ty Goodwill for the year. I've brought that up every week.
50:06
Speaker 1: I'm going to continue because he was a good player.
50:08
Speaker 1: Along with their defensive lineman, Josh Ho. I think it's Huff.
50:14
Speaker 1: I don't know why I said Ho. Hey, let's have
50:18
Speaker 1: some fun with this, right? And their inside linebacker, Whedon.
50:22
Speaker 1: Houston's offense is probably going to move the ball here,
50:25
Speaker 1: I would imagine. Possessions are the question on this. As
50:28
Speaker 1: far as hitting yards, strength of schedule, and whatnot, this
50:31
Speaker 1: is the part that matters. Houston is 135th in offensive
50:33
Speaker 1: drives per game. They are first in field position, so
50:37
Speaker 1: that's good. That means few possessions, long drives, which is
50:42
Speaker 1: why my stats total is only 56.4 here. Cincy's got
50:45
Speaker 1: a special teams edge here, 28th against 42nd. It's not huge.
50:49
Speaker 1: And they're 14th in turnover margin. Cincinnati off of a loss.
50:54
Speaker 1: This trend blew my friggin' mind. Cincy off a loss
50:57
Speaker 1: has covered only 5 of 24 games since 2021. As
50:58
Speaker 1: a dog... The Bearcats are 8-21-1 against the spread. Satterfield
51:07
Speaker 1: off of a loss, 3-10 against the spread since 2024.
51:11
Speaker 1: And it cuts the other way, too. Houston, as a
51:13
Speaker 1: home favorite, has only covered 4-18 since 2021. Off of
51:16
Speaker 1: a bye, it's only 5-15. So, 5 wins, 15 losses.
51:18
Speaker 1: I mean, that's crazy. Fritz off of an ATS loss.
51:30
Speaker 1: has gone under 20 times in 28 games. The radar
51:36
Speaker 1: says to fade my WCE8 model. Says Houston minus 6.9.
51:42
Speaker 1: Four of six models lean the other way towards Houston.
51:45
Speaker 1: Power ratings have it at 10.9. Stats at 12.2. Situation
51:49
Speaker 1: at 12.6. When the rest of the room disagrees with
51:53
Speaker 1: my own model, I'm probably going to listen to the room.
51:57
Speaker 1: The model total of 56.4 is now 6.1 under the market,
52:00
Speaker 1: so the under at 62.5 is a bigger edge than
52:02
Speaker 1: the side to me. I'll probably take the under 62.5.
52:07
Speaker 1: I don't trust it with these two defenses, but as
52:13
Speaker 1: far as the pick goes, I'll take Houston minus 10.5.
52:18
Speaker 1: Why not? Since he looks like they are running low,
52:20
Speaker 1: and my God, what a schedule. Texas Tech, Utah, and
52:25
Speaker 1: then at Houston. I don't know. I'm looking at something
52:29
Speaker 1: probably 34-20, 34-17, something along those lines. I'll take Houston
52:35
Speaker 1: here to win and to cover. All right, that is
52:41
Speaker 1: all 10 games, everybody. Now, before I get to the
52:43
Speaker 1: record and the results from the season and whatnot, hit
52:47
Speaker 1: that Like button, hit the Subscribe button if you hadn't
52:50
Speaker 1: already done that, and make sure and jump in the
52:51
Speaker 1: comments with your best bet of the week. If you
52:53
Speaker 1: want the deep dive, if you want all of the
52:57
Speaker 1: spreadsheets and whatnot, Head over to buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. Become
53:01
Speaker 1: a member. Not a supporter. Become a member. It's $ 5
53:05
Speaker 1: a month, $ 50 a year. You're going to get the recaps.
53:07
Speaker 1: You're going to get the game notes from every game
53:09
Speaker 1: that we've covered thus far. Plus my best bets. The
53:13
Speaker 1: matchup spreadsheet for every FPS versus FPS game. I put
53:17
Speaker 1: some graphics up and whatnot that go over different ratings.
53:20
Speaker 1: I talk about just a ton of things. Tons of things. So,
53:26
Speaker 1: Go ahead and check it out, buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. All right,
53:30
Speaker 1: let's wrap things up by talking about last week. I'm
53:32
Speaker 1: not going to sugarcoat this. The good news first, right,
53:34
Speaker 1: the 10 best show last week was 6-4 against the number.
53:37
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. Stats model went 5-5 on those games.
53:40
Speaker 1: Dogs went 3-2. The rest of the week was atrocious.
53:44
Speaker 1: Weeknight show went 1-5 against the number. My next 15
53:49
Speaker 1: went 4-11. You add it all up, the official show
53:51
Speaker 1: picks went 11-20 in week 9. The stats model went 15-16.
53:55
Speaker 1: The underdogs went 4-7. So across all four models in
53:59
Speaker 1: Week 9, the power ratings were the best at 18-3.
54:02
Speaker 1: That's 58.1%. My situational model went 16-15. Stats model 15-16.
54:08
Speaker 1: WCE 8 went 14-17. That's part of why you're seeing
54:12
Speaker 1: me lean on the full radar this week instead of
54:14
Speaker 1: my WCE 8 alone or my stats model or whatever.
54:18
Speaker 1: For the season... Through 242 graded picks, the official show
54:21
Speaker 1: picks are 123 and 119. That is 50.8%. Stats model
54:23
Speaker 1: is 129 and 113. That is 53.3%. And that's a
54:24
Speaker 1: winning number, right? Underdog picks, 52 and 48. That's 52%
54:26
Speaker 1: on the dot. Over on Buy Me a Coffee, my
54:28
Speaker 1: season best bets doing significantly better. 49, 36, and 3
54:30
Speaker 1: against the number over there. I'm up over 6 units
54:32
Speaker 1: on the season. Went 2-8. Last week, or two and six,
54:49
Speaker 1: excuse me, last week. But I went nine and two
54:52
Speaker 1: a week before that. It's been hit or miss here
54:54
Speaker 1: lately for the past month. But we're going to see
54:58
Speaker 1: how things go in November, right? If you want to
55:00
Speaker 1: check it out, buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. That's where the official
55:03
Speaker 1: plays live. So if you want them, that's where you
55:06
Speaker 1: can get them. Five bucks a month, 50 bucks for
55:07
Speaker 1: the year. All right, that is going to do it
55:12
Speaker 1: for our 10 best games of the week. For week
55:14
Speaker 1: number 10. Don't forget, become a member of buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures.
55:19
Speaker 1: With that said, take care of yourself, take care of
55:21
Speaker 1: each other, God bless college football, and hopefully all of
55:24
Speaker 1: your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning
55:27
Speaker 1: Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment, follow at
55:32
Speaker 1: GaryWCE on X, and check out the web store.