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Mariners/Astros MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Friday 9/19/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that I have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Bruins hat Man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March eight, is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man. I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man's back
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up? Or but it's towed back with you?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Better off dead. Friday, September nineteenth, we were able to
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: get a win yesterday. Another winning day yesterday, the Reds.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: The only play yesterday got the win on that one.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: It was close, closer than I thought it would be.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: It was one nothing win for the Reds. Hunter Green
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: certainly held up his end of the park with a
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: complete game, one hitter with nine strikeouts I think maybe
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: no walks, one walk whatever. It was dominant performance against
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: a pretty good offense too. What I did not expect
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: was a Colin Ray actually almost matched him and did
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: really well. He went seven indies and had eleven strikeouts,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: which I really would not expect at all. He gave
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: up one run though, and that was it. Red's got
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: there first five I thought was maybe a potential play
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: or a potential way to play that game. And I
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: think the Reds did get there on that one too.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: If you went like you probably had to go run
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: line on that minus a half run. I think they
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: scored the run earlier in the game, so I think
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: they did cover that as well. I'd have to double check.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: But decent day. I mean, we got to work our
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: way back up because we're on a bad stretch again.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So it's looking like this is gonna be second losing
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: year in a row for me on the show, which
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: would be ridiculous because it would be only a third
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: losing year that I've been since I've been doing this
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: for like the last eighteen years. Just things that we
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: can't get right. Man. I'll move on today. We've got
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of stuff going on to I'm going to
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: give about I guess three baseball. It looks like the
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: market's kind of disagreeing with two of them, but I'm
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: gonna do it anyway. WNBA will be up first. We
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: do have WNBA and college football today as well, but
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: I won't give out plays, but I will talk about
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: everything WNBA. This has been a weird series, man, So
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: by the way, congratulations, I guess too. The Indiana Fever
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: actually able to knock out the Atlanta Dream even though
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Atlanta I believe has a man on their team, Britney
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: grind Or don't nupe me YouTube. But crazy that Indiana
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: won that series man a road series without Caitlin clark
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Ansyophe Cunningham. Imagine if they were there. I mean, that's crazy.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: I don't see them getting by Vegas. Obviously, in the
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: next round, Minnesota also was able to win their series.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: No surprise there obviously. This series that we have tonight,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: the only Game three that we've had so far. I
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: think it's the only one that we do have. In
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: the first round, New York and Phoenix and the road
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: team has actually won both games. And if you see
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: what happened in game two, Phoenix won Game two on
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: the road. They wanted an absolute blowout eighty six to
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: sixty in the game was actually more of a blowout
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: than that late in the game, and then I mean,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot you could really take away
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: from that. At the end though, I mean, teams are
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: just putting in their backups and whatever. I mean, the
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: game was over. But when you see a blowout like this,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: the zig zag theory in the playoffs, for especially for
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: NBAWNBA you kind of want to look to go with
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: the team that got blown out in that game. You
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: want to go with them in the next game. So, like,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: I saw this score and I was like, I think
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I want to go with the Liberty in the final game,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if I can quite bring myself
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: to do it. I think it is the correct side.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Liberty this game was an outlier for
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: multiple reasons. Man, the Liberty shot thirty point two percent
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: from the field. Really low. That's not gonna happen again.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Phoenix kind of shot normally. Uh. And the Liberty were
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: also really bad from three point range twenty three point
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: one percent from three, and they lost the turnover battle
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Phoenix and single digits and turnovers. Liberty also lost the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: rebounding battle. But this shooting percentage is such an outlier,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: you gotta think that the Liberty you're gonna bounce back.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: The zigzag theory basically says when a team gets blown out,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: like they have the adjustments to make because if your Phoenix,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: like you don't have anything to change because everything just
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: worked in that game, the Liberty basically have everything to change.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Plus I think the shooting percentages are just such an outlier,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: and usually you don't see the home team losing the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: turnover battle like this, and I know Phoenix is the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: home team this time, which is really what my hesitation
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: is in this one, because I would lean to the Liberty.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I think you're actually getting line value too. So not
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: only are they in the zigzag bounce back spot, there
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: is line value. Phoenix is up from one to two
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: and a half, which does look like the money is
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: coming in on Phoenix though, seventy four percent of tickets
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash on them, so that concerns
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: me a little bit. But Phoenix, they weren't an underdog
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: in the first game. Man. I gave them out in
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: the first game and they blew the game and lost
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: in an overtime. Remember they could have won that game.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I know they were losing for large stretches of that
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: game though, which does mean the Liberty can show up
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: here and win this game for sure. But the line value,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I think it is on the Liberty here as well,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: because Phoenix they were like a two to two and
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: a half point underdog in that first game and now
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: they're two and a half point favorite. I told you
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I didn't think the line was correct in the first game.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I thought Phoenix should have been about a one point favorite,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: But now they're a two and a half point home favorite.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So I do think that. I mean that line being
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: so much different from where it was in Game one
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: in the same arena. The line values on the Liberty.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: The Liberty also had the experience. I mean, they've been
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: here recently, They've done this, they won the championship last year.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: They got some of the same personnel backs, so the
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Liberty also do have an experience edge here. But they
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: are pretty bad on the road. I mean that does
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: give me pause for sure. The Liberty ten and twelve
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: on the road during the Red season, Phoenix was fifteen
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: and seven at home. So Phoenix much better at home.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I mean that was part of my handicapping Game one.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Phoenix way better at home. Liberty not is good on
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: the road. Worries me a little bit. I still think
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the Liberty are probably the right side here. I was
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: thinking I was probably gonna give out a play on it.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Don't think I'm going to. I mean, I'm not going to,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: but it's close. I would lean the Liberty still. I
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: think they do actually have the ability to go in
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: there and get that get it done on the road
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: in that one, but definitely a little bit worrisome in
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: that one. Let's move over to Major League Baseball here,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: we got full slate of baseball. Obviously, everything's in the
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: evening here Friday. A lot of teams are starting a
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: new series. It's one of those days we have to
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: pay attention to who played yesterday, who was rested, which
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: we have that coming up in the first game up
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Atlanta at Detroit. Detroit played yesterday, they got swept by Cleveland,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: and as a Red Sox fan, I'm thinking, what the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: fuck is going on here? Schoolball pitched well and they
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: still didn't win. I mean, it's just crazy. Detroit can't
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: even win with schoobl on them on gets swept by Cleveland. Cleveland,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: They're just not a good team. Man. If they were
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: going to make the playoffs, it would be a joke.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry, but and they might make it
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: over the Red Sox. It's just insane. They're only one
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: and a half back of the Red Sox. Cleveland sold
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: off of the trade deadline. They have a pathetic offense,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: like one of the worst few offenses in baseball. Their
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: pitching hasn't even really exactly been that great this year.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: They lost their closer because he was gambling. I mean,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: it's like, how are they doing this? I think Detroit
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: kind of took their foot off the gas a little bit, though.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I mean it looks like they have recently, losing six
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: of their last seven. I think they just thought they
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: were secure and just kind of were like whatever, but
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: now they're not. I mean, they should have been fighting
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: for a playoff position because they're not gonna have home
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: field throughout the playoffs or anything like that. Now, maybe
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Detroit a little bit overrated based on what they did
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: earlier in the season. I mean, they're still certainly good.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: My reaction to this is that they they're kind of
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: at a bounce back spot. I mean, with Cleveland so
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: close behind them, get embarrassed at home by Cleveland. They
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: are generally a good home team. With a team that's
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: not really that familiar with their venue coming in, you
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: gotta think Detroit is going to be angry at this
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: point and actually show up for once. Atlanta didn't play yesterday, though,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: so Atlanta does have a rest advantage. Detroit played yesterday.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's on a hot streak with five games in a row,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: but four of them are against Washington, so I don't
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: know how much you can really take away from that.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: They are traveling up to Detroit from Washington, but they
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: do have the rest, so a little bit of a
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: rest advantage, although Detroit staying at home, so Detroit with
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a travelerge. Detroit only used two
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, so I'm not sure how much the
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: rest advantage really does help Atlanta here starting pitching. I
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: don't really want either of these starting pitchers, man. I
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: really don't Bryce Elder for Atlanta. I mean, I never
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: really want him. Not good numbers five point five sixty IRA,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: one point four to five Whip. He is better on
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the road though, four point three to five roadyra. He
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: did pitch wellve four starts in a row against good
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: opponents too, the Mats, Philly, the Cubs twice. That's crazy,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer and runs in those five. Then
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: he regressed again at home against Houston, gave up six
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: ND runs and four and a third. Not a good
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: outing for him there. Overall, his numbers are actually good
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: this month in the three starts the nineteen to four
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio three point five seven ERA. He
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: is better on the road, But are we really gonna
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: get a good performance out of Elder here? I don't
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: know if I'd really want to bank on it. Man,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: he looks like he might be coming back out of
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: for him again. Detroit, though, hasn't really seen a whole
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: lot of him. Only four at bats, two hitters have
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: ever faced and they're one for four. He Bonyez is
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: the only hit with a single, and he also does
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: have a walk, and they have no strike cuts off him.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: So Elder, I mean, he's unfamiliar to Detroit. It is
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: possible that he actually does okay in this game, as
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: ridiculous as that sounds. I mean, Detroit does have the
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: better offense, but it's not that significantly, not that significant.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I should say Detroit normally has the better bullpen as well.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: They probably still do, even though Atlanta's is rested. I
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: don't think we can say Detroit as the better starter though.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: With Charlie Morton on the mound, he looks like he's
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: pretty much taxed at the end of the season. Here,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: he's got a five point five six RRA, one point
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: five four whip, a little bit worse at home five
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: point six to seventy are Rail, though that includes his
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: stint with Baltimore and with Detroit. Detroit picked him up
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: at the trade deadline and with Morton. I always point
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: out he started off the season awful. With Baltimore, they
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: put him in the bullpend, they brought him back into
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the starting rotation, and then he was actually good for
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: a while. When Baltimore had him in the starting rotation.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Detroit picked him up in a trade. He actually was
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: pretty good for Detroit for a while. But recently he's
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: been really bad again. Man, it looks like maybe his
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: season is over. And I don't want to say his
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: career is over all though that's what I was saying
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: early in the season. But he's just not really getting
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the job done at this point. Three starts of this month,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: his team has lost all of them. They've lost four
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: starts in a row of fause he's allowed multiple runs
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: in all of them, but he's allowed to five and
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: six and two of the three other he allowed fewer
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: in his last two outings against White Sox in Miami,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: the two easier opponents he faced here, but he has
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: failed to go past the four inning mark in any
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: of the three this month, has a nine to eleven
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, which is just awful this month,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: and a nine point two eighty R. He looks like
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: he's totally falling off man. So I definitely would worry
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: about Morton here going up against the Braves, which are
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: actually his former team, although he actually faced them this
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: year when he was with Baltimore. His numbers are not
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: horrible against the Braves. Eighty five at bats, twenty eight
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: to twelve strike a walk ratio is not great two
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: thirty five, batting average seven sixty ops. And sometimes people
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: ask me about like what I consider to be good
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: when I consider not be good as far as the
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: thresholds there, I would say the strike a walk raceho
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I consider like three and above to be good basically
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: ops kind of the Mendoza line there. I think it's
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: about seven fifty as far as what you allow two opponents, Like,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: if it's on the better side of that, it's kind
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: of good. If it's on the worst side of that,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: it's starting to get bad. And then batting average is
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: actually the one that I have like the least gauge
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: on I mean batting average keeps changing, like it's gone
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: down across the league. Like I used to remember much
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: higher batting averages back in the steroid era and whatever,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: and now it seems like it's which you think would
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: be home runs, which it kind of was, but it
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: was batting average too, So I don't even know, Man,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: maybe like two sixty is kind of the batting average Mendoza,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I don't really know, man, Ramiro Mendoza from the Yankees,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Morton, I'm not really expecting that much out
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: of him either. Man, I'm not really expecting much out
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: of either team, to be honest. Like, my thoughts on
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: this are that it seems like it's an over to me.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Total has gone a little bit up from nine juice
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: to the under to nine. We don't see the percentages
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: on it yet. Obviously it would not shock me. We
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: have both starting pitchers struggle here. Detroit actually up for
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: minus one twelve to minus one sixteen. They actually are
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: very public though, I mean, well, that's not surprising Detroit
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: with the better record, even though they've been playing badly recently.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: They still have all the public money seventy four percent
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: of tickets and ninety one percent of the cash so
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: it looks like Atlanta is a big time public fade.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: If you do like Atlanta, I mean, I have a
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: somewhat difficult time getting there with that one man like
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can listen to my analysis, there are
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: factors going both ways there. I would personally probably be
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: looking too an over instead, but definitely don't want to
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: touch that game. Cubs at the Reds. We got the
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Reds right yesterday Hunter Green, great start from him, outdueled Ray,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: so we got no bullpen usage out of the Reds yesterday.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Cubs only is one reliever. Though the Cubs do still
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: have a bullpen advantage here, they do still have the
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: better offense. But how motivated are the Cubs going to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: because again, part of my handicap yesterday was the Cubs
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: clinched a playoff spot. They're pretty much locked into that
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: playoff spot. The top wildcard is pretty much where they're
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: gonna be. They can't really catch Milwaukee. I mean, Milwaukee
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: is six games up after yesterday, highly unlike I mean,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna happen, and it's very unlikely that any
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: of these other wildcard teams is gonna sneak up and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: get ahead of Chicago the Cubs. The Cubs definitely have
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: less to play for here, which is kind of why
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do this, because if that wasn't
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the case, if both teams are motivated here, I'd probably
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: be maybe even giving out the Cubs as a play here,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: because I do think they have an edge throughout the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: pitching in this entire game, and they have the better
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: offense too, even though it hasn't been that good recently.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: But I worry that they don't have that much to
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: play for in Cincinnati is definitely still fighting for wildcard
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: spot here. They could potentially still sneak in there. But
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the Cubs do have showed to e Monaga pitching, who
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: is having a really good season three point two to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: ninety IRA, zero point nine to five whips era, actually
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: exactly the same home and away this month. It doesn't
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: look quite as good four point seven to sixty hour
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: in three starts, but he's given up exactly three runs
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: in all three, got at least five innings in all three,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: and that's certainly not awful fifteen to one strike a
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Also, his command is still there, so his
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: numbers are still good. He's giving up three or fewer
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: earned runs in every start going all the way back
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: through his last start in July. He's still in pretty
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: good form right now. Man maybe starting to tire out
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit towards the end of the season against
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati's been good thirty eight at bats, ten to one,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio one to eighty four, average allout
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: four to forty two oh ps. So I told him
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the matchup numbers seemed to be in favor of the
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Cubs here, so that's kind of why I was considering
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. So I just worry about the motivational angles here,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: even though the Cubs looked like they did actually kind
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: of show up to play yesterday, at least Colin Ray did,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: but maybe their offense did. And that's the other thing
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: with motivation. It's a little bit harder to gauge as
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: like a team in Major League Baseball, because of course
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: you can kind of do it as a team, and
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: that is a way to gauge the offense, but a
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher could have his own motivation, so it kind
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: of become separated. Nicolodolo is pitching for the Reds in
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: this one. He's having a good season as well. Three
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: point three ERA one point zero four whip. He's a
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home though four point one ERA.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: It is a hitter friendly park here. He's been struggling
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit recently. Last time out against the Cubs,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: he had to leave early. He hadn't allowed any base runners.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: He had into the second inning, but he had a
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: finger blister, came out of the game, came back, didn't
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: pitch well against the Dodgers the next time out, didn't
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: last five innings. His strike out walk numbers are still fine, though,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: which they tend to be. I think he had his
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: next start pushed back a little bit. He did shut
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: out San Diego for five innings at their pitcher friendly park,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: which was not bad. And then last time out he
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: regressed a little bit at the A's stadium, but again
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: that's a hitter friendly ballpark, and he gave up three
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: home runs in the game, so you could maybe consider
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: that to be a bit of an outlier, just a
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: bad park to pitch, and he gave up three home runs,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: five and runs total, didn't walk anybody though five strikeouts.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: His command was still pretty much on there. Probably just
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: had too many pitches that are a bit too hit
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: able A's good offense too. I give up eight hits
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: in five to third innings there. Lodolo against the Cubs
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: doesn't have good numbers though, in ninety five at bats
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: twenty three to eleven strike a walk ratio that's not
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: very good, three twenty six average, nine to fifty four ops.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: The Cubs definitely hit him around, So pretty big pitching
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: disparity as far as what the matchup numbers look like.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: So I was thinking about giving out a play in
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, I just worry about the motivation of it. Man,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Cubs are down for my just one fifteen to minus
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: one O nine seventy three percent tickets seventy six percent
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: of the cash, so they are getting a little bit
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: more of the cash percentage. I would lean that way
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: slightly to the Cubs, And they did get shut out yesterday,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: so it could be a little bit of a motivating
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: factor there. I don't know if they're gonna be that
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: motivated to like spoil Cincinnati season. I think the spoiler
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: role tends to be for like a team that's kind
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: of out of it and they want to try to
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: spoil one of the better teams. See since so I
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: don't think that's really a factor. Just you know, take
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: all that into consideration with that game, the A's at Pittsburgh.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: The A's played yesterday and beat the Boston Red Sox,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: which I'm not happy about. The Red Sox couldn't even
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: win a fucking home series against the A's. Isn't that
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: just great? Brian Bay, Oh, not exactly that great. Not
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: that the A's pitching is that good. Though. The A's
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: are one six of their last seven games. They're traveling
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: and they played yesterday. They're going for Boston and Pittsburgh.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh did not play yesterday, so Pittsburgh has a rest
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: advantage and a travel advantage as they're staying at home.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Though they've lost a lot of recent games. They've lost
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: eleven of their last twelve. I mean, Pittsburgh is obviously
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: out of it, so are the A's. The A's are
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: playing like they still want to win these games. Pittsburgh
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: isn't really, So it looks like maybe there is kind
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: of some motivational thing here where Pittsburgh just isn't motivated anymore.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, because normally I would say
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh doesn't have a bit of an edge here because
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: they didn't play yesterday. Pittsburgh does have the better bullpen
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: as well. The A's bullpen is not good. The A's
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: didn't really use a ton of their's yesterday, but it's
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: still not the better bullpen anyway, and Pittsburgh is more
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: rested now. A's obviously have a way better offense. Though
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is like the bottom offense in all of baseball.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: The A's have like a top seven or so offense.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: A Luis Severino, pitcher for the A's. Not a great
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: season for him four point eight two ERA, one point
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: three two WHIP, but he has some of the most
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: ridiculous home roads. What's ever, He's just been really bad
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: in that home stadium that the A's have there, and
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty good on the road. He's been like
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: a completely different pitcher. Three point one to one road
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: ERA this month. He has a thirteen to four strike
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio in three starts four point eighty RA.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: He missed actually about a month prior to this, he
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: was injured, so his numbers, I mean, they don't look
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: terrific this month, but again, his one bad start was
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the home start his last time. I'll get Cincinnati give
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: a five and runs at home on two home run.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: His starts on the road were a bit better if
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: he went five innings in all of them, so he's
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: not going that deep right now. But the other two
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: starts he had an eleven to two strike up walk ration,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: allowed three earned runs combined, and the road starts he
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: is still definitely better on the road. He's going up
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: against a very weak Pittsburgh offense, so he should be
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: able to pitch well here, especially in a road scenario.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: With those numbers are only mediocre against them. In forty
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: two at bats ten to two strike up walk ration,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: he's basically right at the Mendoza line, though against him,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: allowing a two to sixty two batting average is seven
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: to forty eight ops, which is not that great considering
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: how bad Pittsburgh's offense is, but I'm still kind of
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: leaning towards him pitching well in this game. Mitch Keller
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Pittsburgh here alright. Season for him four
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: point one to three ERA, one point two to five
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: WHIP a little bit worse at home, but pretty similar
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: four point one seven e RA. He's given up two
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: or fewer eun runs in his last three outings three
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: or fewer un runs in his last four. Not terrible
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: considering most of those starts are on the road. He
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: did face the Red Sox in Milwaukee and they're did
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: okay in those games. His team has lost a bunch
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: of his starts hes because of course his team can't hit.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: They've lost five of their last six. He does have
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: an eight to one strike a walk race YO in
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: the two starts this month, though in a three point
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: zero ninety RA, so he's still pitching all right. Right now.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: He's going up against a pretty good A's offense, though
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: they only have twenty eight bats against. Some five of
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: their hitters have seen him before, and they've definitely hit
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: him for power. He's only a lot of two fifty average,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: but four to four strike a walk ratio. It's kind
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: of a lot of walks and a nine to seventy
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: five batting average allowed. He's a lot of home runs
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: to blit day in legal leears so longa years, so
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: the A's do actually hit him fairly well. It's a
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: difficult handicap here, man, because based on what I just said,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: it seems like the A's do have kind of the
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: matchup edges in this game almost pretty much throughout the
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: game except for their bullpen. Seems like they have a
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: somewhat of a starting pitching edge here. The money is
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: coming in in the A's. If I was gonna do it,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: I would only do it first five innings though, I mean,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: I still worry about the lack of rest scenario there,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: but it looks like they're the more motivated team right now.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: They're sitting at minus one oh five minus one oh six.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: The A's basically being a road favorite seems kind of crazy,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: but I mean, the A's are better than the record
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: looks man. People have this like vision of the A's
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: that there's still like a bottom tier team, but they're
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: not really, especially their offense. It's really only their bullpen.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: That is eighty three percent of the cash on the
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: A's sixty per tickets on Pittsburgh. So Pittsburgh shockingly is
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: a public side, it looks like, which makes no sense.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: I would lean to the A's in the first five
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: innings only in this one. I'm worry about their hitting
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: being a little bit tired though after yesterday, But Pittsburgh's
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: hitting can't do anything anyway, so that's kind of the
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: way that I look at that game. Uh, the Yankees Baltimore.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get give out a play on that one,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: So I'll wait on that one. Washington at the Mets.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: The Mets are starting a new series here. They did
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: just come off a series against Sam and Diego that
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: finished yesterday, so the Mets don't have rest. Washington, I believe,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: didn't play yesterday, so Washington is rested. But they do
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: have a terrible bullpen, so the Mets still have the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here. They finally they got a really good
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: start from Tong yesterday. I pointed out how I was
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: really worried about him. I thought it might have been
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: an over type of game yesterday, and I wasn't right,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: And it was just because Tong actually did pitch well yesterday.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: So the Mets got that win. Big win for the Mets.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: They're still trying to get the wildcard here. I mean,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: they certainly can't get the division at this point, but
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: they got to try to get that last wildcard and
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: they're still fighting for it. Though they don't have rest
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: right now because they played yesterday, but at least for them,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: they're staying at home. It's definitely worse when you have
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: no rest and you're having a travel which, by the way,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: we will be fading one of those teams today, so
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: you probably know what it is by now. The Mets
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: didn't use a ton of their bullpen over the last
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: few days. Us their bullpen rest scenario isn't that bad.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: I'm still gonna give him a bullpen edge over Washington.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Washington's bullpen is just terrible. Mets have the way better
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: offense here too. I mean, they're just obviously the way
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: better team. Washington kind of playing out the stretch here.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: They just got swept in that four game series by Atlanta.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: They're not playing well right now. They did beat Pittsburgh
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: in the prior series, but it's Pittsburgh Washington. Maybe they'll
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: show up here because it is a divisional series. The
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Mets one of the better teams of the division, so
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: maybe some motivating factors there for Washington to show up.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Washington has Andrew Alvarez on the mind. We actually have
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: a battle of really young pitchers here. Alvarez has done
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: okay so far one point one, five point eight three whip.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: It's interesting these twenty six and this is his rookie season,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: might have had some injury issues that delayed his Sorry
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: to the majors. I don't know. He's been a little
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road so far. Three point eight
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: six roady ra He's only made three starts so far,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: though he's allowed two or fewer and runs and all
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: of them, uh, the one rough one was against the
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: good offense that he faced, though, the Cubs, and he's
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: facing a good offense here, so he might not do
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: as well here because the he had two shutouts, but
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: they were against Miami and Pittsburgh and they were both
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: at homes. Those are not really talented offenses. Pittsburgh's is terrible,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: and he did struggle a bit in his road starting
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: against the Cobs. Although overall one point one five y right,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you have to admit that is good,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: but eleven to six strikeout walk ratio, it's a little
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: bit concerning. He hasn't allowed a lot of hits at all,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: but that's too many walks, strike out rates fairly low.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: So I don't know exactly what we're gonna get out
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: of Alvarez here. He's facing another good lineup. Yes, I
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: know they haven't seen him, and I say when you
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: have a young pitcher, the advantage tends to go to
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the pitcher the first couple of times they see the hitters,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: because the hitters don't know what to expect yet. Not
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: quite sure Alvarez is gonna be that good, though. I
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: might actually put more of my faith in Brandon Sproute,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: even though I kind of said the opposite in his
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: first couple of starts, because he didn't look that good,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Like I looked at his minor league numbers and they
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: weren't really that good. But he's been pretty decent so far.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: He's only made two starts, so again, we have two
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: really new pitchers here, but he's got a two point
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: twenty five ERA one point oh eight whipman. Of course,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: people might look at this and say, oh, Alvarez has
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: the better ERA, he must be the better pitcher. I
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: don't think he is. I think sprot probably is if
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: you kind of dig into the matchup numbers a little bit,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: or dig into the like just the stats a little
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: bit and see like who they faced and what they
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: actually did. Sprote has a zero home Hera Savars is
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: one start. He shut out Texas. I know it's Texas.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: They're not a good offense, but he didn't walk anybody.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is higher than Alvarez. He's at ten strikeouts.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: He has four walks, but all of them were in
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the first game against the Reds. Pitching at the Red
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Stadium is not that easy to do when you're on
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: major league debut. Man, he did decently. You give up
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: three and runs at six innings, so he's gotten a
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: little bit deeper into his starts. To his last start,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: he was very efficient with his pitches, throwing seventy and
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: getting through six innings. So I think Sprote actually is
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: looking at those numbers, it seems to me like he's
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: the better of the two pitchers. He is also facing
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the way weaker offense here in Washington, certainly not a
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: good offense, and they've never seen him before, so I
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: think that gives Sprout a little bit of an extra
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: edge to these weaker offenses. That unfamiliarity aspect of it
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: can be exacerbated a little bit. The money is coming
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: in on the Mets, and of course they do have
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: something to play for. I mean, they're trying to make
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: sure they win, but is it worth a minus two
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: hundred price up to minus two h three probably not
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on the Mets.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Mets, though. I mean,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I guess if you do like the Mets, probably first
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: five man, not even first five go full game run
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: line maybe makes sense. I guess that might be the
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: way I would look to do that, but I know
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: it's a run line with a home team. Sometimes you
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: don't want to do that. They have to be able
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: to score those runs there. You know, it's a little
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: bit more difficult to do that, But that still might
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: be the way I would look in this game. Just
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: it looks like a mismatch to me, and it's a
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: bit of a motivational mismatch as well. The money's also
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: coming in in the under sixty seven percent of tickets
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: on the over, sixty eight percent of cash on the under,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: totals going down. For me to have to eight and
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: a half juice to the under, I do worry because
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: it's just kind of unpredictable. You're gonna get out of
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: these starters. And the argument for the under would be
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: you have a rested bullpen with Washington, the Mets are
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: at least the better bullpen and not totally unrested and
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: you have two starters that are unfamiliar with the opposing hitters.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: But I worry about that, man. I don't really want
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Washington's bullpen in any capacity, So yeah, I worry about that.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are having to travel down to Tampa Bay.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: But it might be good for them. I mean, they're
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: still trying to hold onto the last wild card. It's
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: getting pretty di or here. I mean, you can't lose
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: a home series to the fucking A's, man, and it's
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: just bad. The A's got a little bit of revenge there.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox won the road series not too long ago.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: Two series prior to that they did. Every game was close.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I mean the Red Sox were in every game. Obviously
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: they could have won every game. They're a favorite in
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: every game at home. But if you lose a series
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: kind of a harassingly. Sometimes it is good to just
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: go out on the road. Tampa Bay did play yesterday,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: but they're staying at home. But they got a pretty
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: big win of Toronto. They're staying at home. Tampa doesn't
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot left to play for it, but
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: they do have a chance to knock the Red Sox
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: out of the playoffs. So I think that is kind
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: of motivation for Tampa when you get to knock a
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: division rival out, although I would hope that they would
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: save that eye or more for the Yankees, but you know,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's what's on their schedule. Tampa, did you's
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: five relief pitchers yesterday? The Red Sox. Both teams have
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: pretty good bullpens, though the Red Sox only use two
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: guys out in relief yesterday, and one of them was
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: totally who's been in their starting rotation for a bit
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: as well, but he's kind of struggling right now. Man,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: I don't love that at all. Connolly early seems to
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: maybe be the better of the two stars and maybe
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: too early to say, oh, but yeah, the Red Socks
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: have a bit of the more rested bullpen here. They
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: are the slightly better bullpen. Although both bullpens are good,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have the better offense of these two teams.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: This is a hit or from the stadium. Though it's
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: basically designed like Yankee Stadium, it's Steinbergerfield spring training stadium
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: that Tampa's played and Red Sox have played there already
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: this year, so they're kind of familiar. With it. I mean,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: they play at Yankee Stadium all the time, so the
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Red Sox aren't gonna be totally thrown off by this stadium.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: And they also have their race on them on and
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: they're gonna need it when they're trying to get this
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: last playoff spot here. Garrett Crochet, hopefully he's the man
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: for the scenario here. He's got a two point six
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: three ERA one point zero five whip. We know he
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: is really good. The one thing I've been worried about recently, though,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: is he's gone way over his highest innings pitch count
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: of his career, getting close to two hundred innings pitched here,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: So we worry about him maybe wearing down because he's
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: a hard thrower, he's a strikeout pitcher. But his recent
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: starts don't make it look like he's wearing down, so
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: hopefully that is the case. He's been good on the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: road two point twenty nine ERA, but this is a
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park this time. But he's been really quite
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: good this month, man. I know he gave up seven
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: runs to Cleveland, just kind of inexplicable four home runs
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: against him, which that is gonna if that winds up
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: being the difference between the Red Sox and making the
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: playoffs and Cleveland making the playoffs. That is such bullshit.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: If it's a game that they lost or no, the
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Red Sox still won that game. On I never mind
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox won that game. I'm looking at Crochet's
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: pitching line. I mean, there's no way the Red Sox
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: won that game, but they did, so my mistake. The
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have won five starts in a row of Crochets,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: including two of them against the Yankees. Yes, he is
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: coming off a start against the Yankees where he did
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: do well. He picked up a win. It was a
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: big game so in that respect, and maybe a little
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown spot, But I don't think you
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: can afford to be in a letdown spot and your
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: man when you're fighting to make the playoffs. So he
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: did well. He had double digit strikeouts in that one
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: and against the A's, and the start before that has
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: a twenty six to one strike out walk ratio this month.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: That doesn't look like he's wearing down to me, although
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit worries in the allowed six home runs
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: before of them were just that weird outlier of a
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: start against Cleveland, so I'm not too worried about that,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: and that skewed as the ra this month up to
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: four point seven to four. But still he looks like
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: he's pretty much dominating right now. Man, as far as
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: his command numbers are concerned, I'm not terribly worried about that.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Stepping a little bit down in class from the Yankees
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: to face a Tampa offense. He has good numbers against Tampa.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: They haven't even seen that much of him. They only
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: have five hitters have ever faced them before them. They're
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: one for seventeen off him, only hit as a single
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: from d As it is usually d As. They have
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts, no walks. Kind of surprised it's not more strikeouts,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: but whatever. I mean, he's pretty much completely kept Tampa
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Bay silent when he's faced them, so he should do
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: well here, you would hope. But Tampa Bay is kind
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: of making it difficult on the Red Sox is they're
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: pretty much putting out their best start at account Or
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: with Drew Rasmussen, which I think is just kind of
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: the way it lined up, which again that kind of
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: pisses me off. Man, if it was Crochet against like
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: any of Tampa's other starters, it would be a better
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: matchup for the Red Sox than this is a two
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: point seven four ERA for Rasmussen one whip. He's been
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: really good this year. He's been better in this stadium
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: to at home for whatever reason, two point six era,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: despite it being a hitter front of the park. Now.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: The one thing about Rasmusen though, is they've been kind
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: of limiting his pitches a bit. Don't exactly know why
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: that's the case. Just maybe keep him fresh later into
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: the season because he's not young. He is a veteran.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean they've been limiting his pitch counts
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit, so you're basically gonna expect him to
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: go about five innings here, I think, which is what
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: he's done in all of his starts this month, either
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: capping him around eighty pitches in every single start. For
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: the most part this month, he's been a little bit worse.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Three point six e IRA is still pretty good. He
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: did allow three on runs and two of the starts
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: though against Seattle and the Cubs. The start where he
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: didn't allow any runs was against Cleveland. Very bad offense.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: I know they did just torch groceet in that game.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Somehow don't know how. The thing that would worry you
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: the most about Rasmusen in this game, though, is he
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: has a nine to six strike a walk racetire this month,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: so not a high strike gout rape. With the walk
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: rates gotten high three a piece in his last two starts,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: that is a little bit questionable. He is having to
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: face a Red Sox lineup that can hit, and he
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: hasn't done that well against them in the past, and
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: thirty two at bats five to two strike up walk ratio,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: nothing to really see there, that's not great. Three to
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: twelve batting average eight to fifty three ozh ps lows
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, even though they have some offensive injuries
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: right now, they still got some talented hitters here and
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: they have hit them pretty well. So I mean, probably
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: still a slight lean to the Red Sox in this one.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: The ninety five percent of the tickets, of course, you
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: know the Red Sox are going to be public, and
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: with Crochet on the mound, doesn't seem like there's a
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: lot of value there. Red Sox now for minus one
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: twenty eight to twenty six on the money line, very public,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: but it looks like the ninety nine percent of the
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: cash right now. I mean I would have a slight
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: lean that way, but I do worry. I definitely worry
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: about this one, man, I do. There's money coming in
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: in the under fifty three percent of tickets and sixty
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under totals going all
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: the way down from seven and a half to seven.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: It looks like it's going towards the under seven and
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: heavily juiced, which is kind of insane. I mean, as
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: far as that's concerned, there might be some reasons to
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: worry about that a little bit. I mean, that's a
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: really low total for a hitter friendly park like this.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: It's all because of the starting pitching match. I mean,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are also fairly good, but you gotta worry
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: about Tampa's Billtpend being not very rested. You do have
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: to worry about Rastusen's matchup numbers against the Red Sox,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: which is actually why I kind of think the Red
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Sox might be the better way to look at this
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: game a Red Sox side. But it does worry me
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: about it, but it is a decent spot for them. Again,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: when you lose a home series, you go out on
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: the road. It tends to help refocus you a little bit,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: and that's what we have going on there. So that's
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that game. San Diego at
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Chicago White Sox. San Diego they're still fighting for playoff
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: positioning here. They're going to make one of the wildcard spots,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: but they did just lose a wildcard battle to the Mets.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Although the Mets are still ahead of them. Maybe I
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: don't think that's really gonna matter. Really, I think San
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Diego is pretty much locked into the five seed at
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: this point. The wildcards spottle though. They actually have a
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: better chance of catching the Dodgers and winning the NL
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: West than they do and catching out the Cubs. At
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: this point, I think I'm pretty sure that's the case.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong, but still both are kind of on
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: the table. But it was a big series against the
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Mets that they lost. They played yesterday. They have to
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: travel from New York to Chicago now, and Chicago was
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: off yesterday the White Sox were, so the White Sox
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge as far as that's concerned,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: being off yesterday and they're not traveling anywhere. They're staying
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: at home, although they've lost six straight games, getting swept
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: by Baltimore at home in their last series, but they
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: are the more rested team here. San Diego obviously has
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. I mean that's not even really close,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: but they used a ton of their relief pitchers yesterday,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: so that almost kind of negates their bullpen. Actual, man,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the White Sox bullpen is gonna be rested at least
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: coming into this in San Diego's use a lot of
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: their relievers, So it is kind of a spot where
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: it's one of those spots. It's not the one that
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna actually play, But you have a team that's traveling,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: they're not rest against the team that's not traveling and rested.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: There are some advantages for the White Sox here. Maybe
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: they'll show up in a game against San Diego. Who knows.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know it's not a divisional series, it's
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: not even an it's not even a series in the
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: American League, so I don't know. I don't know how
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: motivated the White Sox will be for this because they're
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: playing out the stretch. But seems like it's not the
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: greatest spot for San Diego here. Man, don't see suspicion
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: for the Padres. Not as good as he was last
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: year Man four point five ninety RA this year one
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: point three to two whip not great. He's pretty bad
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: on the road five point five four ARRA in the road,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: very much struggles on the road. He's been pretty good
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: this month on three starts, aligned two or four on
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: runs and all three of them eighteen to five strike
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: a walk Raceio two point four ERA, but he didn't
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: even make five innings against Baltimore, and the other two
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: starts were both against the Rockies, who are a terrible offense.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: One of them was at Course Field, which I know
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: it's difficult to pitch there, but I'm not ready to
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: say that Cease is just back and form right now
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: or whatever. I know. Obviously, the White Sox offense is
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: also bad. San Diego's is the better offense here. Although
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: San Diego's offense has struggled a bit, they're actually moving
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: up a little bit here though White Sox definitely have
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: a bottom tier offense. Though seas against the White Sox
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: he has pretty much ceased them. He's done well against him.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: They only have four hitters who have seen him before
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: thirty nine at bats. He's on to a one to
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: seventy nine average, five three ohps, fourteen to five strike
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio that's not that great, but he's done
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: pretty well against him. He does tend to just walk
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: too many guys, so I don't know if I'm ready
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: to say we definitely should fade Dylan Cease here, although
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: I think you're probably paying way too much for San
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Diego in a spot like this. Davis Martin has pitched
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox. I mean, he's not great, but
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been awful four point h one ERA one
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: point two eight whip. He is better at home three
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: point five four ERA, so he is the better on
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: the home road splits here three point eight six the RA.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: This month, he's gone at least five innings and all
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: three of his starts, all of them on the road, too,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: so that's not bad. He allowed three or four runs
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: in all of them, but his walk rate has been
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: too high ten strikeouts to seven walks this month. He's
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: walking too many guys, man, That is the concern here.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Although he is back at home, he faced one good
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: offense or decent offense in that stretch with Detroit. Of course,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: San Diego. I mean, they're not that potent of an offense. Really,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: He's unokay against them in the past. They don't have
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: too much experience against him. Fourteen at bats five to
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: two strike a walk race yo two fourteen average about
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: seven to forty one ops. So yeah, I mean, Martin,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: he's unokay against them. Man. You know, San Diego is
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be a bit of a public side. Although it
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: does look like the money has definitely come in on them.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: They're rough for minus one sixty to minus one eighty
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: two sixty two percent, takes ninety eight percent of the
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I don't know if it's all actual
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: money coming into Sandio because of course, I mean, debatably
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: they're the team with more to play for, but I
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: mean I think they're somewhat almost They're getting close to
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: being locked into their seed though, so I don't know,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: and it is not that great a spot for them,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: So I would kind of consider maybe a first five
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: inning White Sox run line, although you could go full
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: game too actually, because San Diego, they just their bullpen
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: is kind of burned out right now, man, So I
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: could see the arguments for that money's coming in in
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: the under as well. Eighty six percent tickets on the over,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the couch on the under, total
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: drop from eight and a half to eight. Basically the
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: kind of a slight move there, and in kind of
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: no man's lane. With some not very important numbers, they're
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: not the key numbers. The key numbers in baseball totals
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: are the odds, the odd numbers, I mean, not the
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: odds themselves, the odd numbers. The odds are key as well,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: but the odd numbers, because that's how you break the
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: three three tie. I would definitely be concerned with an
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: under there because I don't know how much you could
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: trust either pitcher there. But I think maybe there's some
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: value looking to grab, like the White Sox on a
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: run line there. Toronto. At Kansas City, Toronto, Yeah, I
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: mean they're still fighting to win the Al East obviously.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: Kansas City pretty much, I think knows they're out of
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: it at this point. They're not going anywhere. They're below
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: five hundred though, now, which could be a bit of
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: a motivating factory. They did just get shut out yesterday
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: lost to Seattle. They are staying at home. Toronto's coming
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: in Toronto. I believe. Also, wait, did they play yesterday?
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Do they not? I think they did. Yeah, they're at
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, so Toronto was traveling from Tampa to Kansas City,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: so they're actually shifting time zones here. But both teams
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: played yesterday. Kansas City does have the better of the
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: two bullpens. Obviously, Toronto has a way better offense. So
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Kansas City fairly rested bullpen after not using a ton
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: of guys yesterday at all. Two relief pitchers. Toronto only
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: these three of theirs. Their bullpen's somewhat rested too, but
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Toronto's bullpen has been definitely more questionable. Kansas City's is
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: the better of the two. Toronto definitely has a better offense.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Though you probably don't have to pay too much of
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: a price for Toronto because you are paying for the name.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: Max schurz Er. He's making the start for the Blue
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Jays here. Decent season for him at his old age.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Four point three to one ERA, one point one to
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: six whip is solid. He's actually a little bit better
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: on the road. Four point one to nine Roady Ira
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: this month mediocre. I mean he actually had a couple
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: of rough starts in a row, but they were against
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee and the Yankees, two difficult offenses. He didn't make
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: it past four and a third innings in either of them,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: allowed foeign runs in those. Bounced back a bit last
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: time out with a two run five inning performance against Baltimore,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts, two walks. A little bit iffy though this
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: month five point seven to ninety RA, thirteen to six
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: strike a walk, race shots, A lot of strikeouts and
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of walks for him this month. So I
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: don't know exactly what we're gonna get out of Shuzer
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Hero though. He hasn't thrown that many innings this season,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: and he is used to throwing a lot of innings too,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna say he's gonna he's like wearing
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: down or anything like that. He is going up against
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: some pretty weak Kansas City offense. Here where are they at?
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: It is alphabetized. He's done pretty well against them in
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: the past one hundred and nine at bast twenty three
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: to five strike a walk ratium, two to eleven batting average,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: a lot six thirty one ops sures or has done
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: well against them. He's going up against Michael Renzen, who
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that great for Kansas City here four point
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: nine to one ERA, one point three eight whip. He
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: is considerably better at home, though it's a picture friendly park,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: a four point eighty three homeyra. He's been still kind
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: of all over the place. Man. He was injured for
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: about a month, came back in mid August, did pitch
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than he was before. I mean,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: he's allowed more than three on runs three times since then,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: more than four and runs only one, which is a
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: game at Philly. They have a good offense this month though. Overall,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: his numbers really aren't that great though seven point oh
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: four ERA certainly isn't. Fourteen to three strike out walk
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: ratios okay, though he's allowed too many hard hits and
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: his command is okay, which that's kind of his mo
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: really though. And last time Money went one inning against Seattle,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that was like maybe they used
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: him as an opener, So that's another thing, like is
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: he actually gonna get a starter's workload here? Are they
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: gonna use him as an opener? Or like what's going
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: on here? We don't even know, So that makes this
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: more difficult to handicap this game. He is going up
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: against Toronto here. If Toronto has not done well against him,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: so you gotta kind of think Kansas City's gonna let
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: him go multiple innings in this game. You would think,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know why he left the previous game, if
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: he was scheduled to just be an opener, or if
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: they pulled him for some other reason. I don't know,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: because it was like one scoreless inning. I think against Seattle.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: He's got forty eight at bats against Toronto, five to
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratio, two oh eight batting average
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: allowed to five to seventy three ohps. I don't know, man,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: It's difficult to handicap this one. Toronto's very public, ninety
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: five percent tickets, only eighty five percent of the cash.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: They are the team with a bit more to play
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: for because they're still trying to hang onto the Al
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: East here. But the money's coming in against Toronto and
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: they're very public. Minus one thirty seven on the money
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: line down to minus one twenty six on the money
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: line there. So it looks like the money is coming
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: in towards Kansas City. I mean, I could see the
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: arguments for it, just the Toronto's probably overvalued as a
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: road favorite. Maybe the pressure is on them a little bit.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: They are traveling different time zones. But I just don't
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: really want to put my trust in Lorenz in here, man,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: So it's difficult to actually do that. But that is
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: what the market read says. At least, I'm gonna give
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: out a play on Miami. Texas will wait on that one.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at Minnesota, I mean, come on, man, Cleveland, this
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: is ridiculous. They won seven games in a row. I mean,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: they did do it against the White Sox at first,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: and then they swept Detroit on the road. Detroit pretty
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: good home record, and they won against school Boy yesterday.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Mean come on, man, I'm sick of it. Cleveland is
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: not this good. Now they're traveling in Minnesota, they could
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: be in a letdown spot. Even though I know baseball
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: streaking and they're on a hot streak right now. I
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, coming off that big series against Detroit,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, they are still fighting to make a wildcard spot,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: coming from out of nowhere to do it. But in
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: this case, it still could be a bit of a
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: letdown spot in Minnesota is staying at home in didn't
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: play yesterday. Minnesota just lost to the Yankees at home.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Minnesota really bad bullpen, though Cleveland's bullpen is better. Uh.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Cleveland of course did use some of their bullpen yesterday,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: so the usage is more heavy as Minnesota didn't play yesterday.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much that negates it, though Cleveland's
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: probably still gonna give them a bullpen edge here even
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: despite that. As far as the hitting, I mean, Minnesota's
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: hitting has not really been good either. Traded some guys
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: away though. They're kind of a mid tiereer offense, so
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: they're they're the better offense. So Cleveland's offense is second
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: worst than all of baseball, So, I mean, another reason
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: why it's like, how is Cleveland doing this? Their run
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: differential still sucks, pisses me off, but the money looks
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: like it's coming in on Cleveland in this game. It's like,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: this is just so ridiculous. Man. Cleveland has Parker Messic pitching.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: He's a rookie. He's done alright so far. One point
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: eight four ERA obviously really good. One point three to
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: three whip is a bit too high, though, so his
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: ERA should go up based on how many guys he's
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: put on base. So I'm not saying he's bad though,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: two point seven to six Roady Ray, so he is
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: worse on the road this month really just in his
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: entire season so far, his entire career, I guess he's
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: only made five starts and only one of them was bad,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: and it was on the road against the Red Sox.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox were able to knock him around and
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: beat him. Other than that, he's been good. He's loved
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: one or fewer on runs, and all the other starts
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: got at least six innings and all of them. Yeah,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: overall is a twenty two to four strike a walker show.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Has a lot too many hits though, but most of
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: it was because of that Red Sox game. He did
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: face some other at least decent offenses Arizona Tampa twice
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: in Tampa Stadium and in Arizona Stadium as well, coming
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: off a start against the White Sox, which I mean,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: the White Sox is not impressive to beat them, but overall,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna even put that much into
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: looking at his wid there because he's been good in
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: every start except for the Red Sox one, so again
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: that worries me. He's facing a Minnesota offense. It's not
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: that good and they haven't seen him before. So Messik
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: probably does have the edge against the Minnesota hitters for
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: that reason, they're gonna have to figure him out on
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the fly. Minnesota's going with Pablo Lopez. I mean, he
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: is a good pitcher two point six four ERA, one
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: point one whip on the season. He did get injured
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: and came back not too long ago. He's a little
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: bit worse at home, but pretty similar two point seven ERA.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: He was injured for three months and then he came
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: back and he's been pretty good since coming back. Two
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: starts against Kids A City, I mean, not much you
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: can take away from that, and then Arizona more talented offense.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: He actually didn't allow any earned runs against them, only
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: lasted five innings though through a lot of pitches, did
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: walk three guys. But he still is a one point
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: six four ERA in those two starts. It's coming back
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: ten to four strike a walk ratio is not that
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: great but not horrible. So he's been pitching pretty well
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: as well. The problem is, believe it or not, as
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: bad as Cleveland's offense is, he doesn't do well against them.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: In seventy eight at bats, twelve to six strike a
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: walk ratio three zero eight, average allowed seven to ninety
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: three oh ps. So Lopez has not been good against Cleveland,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: and the money is coming in on Cleveland. I just
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: don't I don't love seeing it, man, I don't disagree
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: with it, but I don't like seeing it. Fifty six
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, fifty three percent of the cash on Minnesota.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: They're a bit of a public. It's just crazy to
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: see Minnesota being public though, Like, how is Minnesota public
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: when they have the worst record and their favorite I
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: don't know. They're down for minus won twenty minus won ten,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of tickets on Minnesota, fifty three percent
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: of the cash and money kind of coming towards the
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: under as well. When I first looked at the starting
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup, I said, oh, this does look like an under.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Even though Minnesota their bullpen sucks. If you want to
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: go first five innings, could think about that. But Lopez's
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers they're just so bad against Cleveland. I worry
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: about it, even though it does seem like it would
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: be an under with Messic against Lopez. I mean, money
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: looks like it's still coming in that way. Down to
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: eight justice the unders. If you wanted to do it,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: you could go under under first five innings. Maybe Cleveland
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: does have a better bullpend So I do lean to Cleveland.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: It's a side, but I don't love that. I really
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: don't love either of them. Men. I worry about Lopez's
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers, which worry about that as far as the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: under is concerned. As far as the Cleveland side, I
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: worry about the fact that Cleveland is unrested and traveling
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: and potentially in a bit of a letdown spot off
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: of such a big series. So I worry about all that,
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: and that they just are overrated. I mean, they're not
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: as good as the record looks. They're still Yeah, just
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: a negative run differential. I don't get it. Man, Seattle
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: at Houston will be a play for me. I'm maybe
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit concerned about that one, but we'll see.
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: It's probably not what you think it's gonna be. Anaheim
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: at Colorado. This is an ugly series. Two teams that
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: are just going nowhere, playing out the stretch. Colorado staying
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: at home. They've lost five games in a row. They
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: just got swept by Miami. They played yesterday, but they're
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: staying at home. What we're talking about here a la
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: I mean Anaheim excusing Anaheim is traveling. I think they
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: didn't play yesterday. They weren't. I know they did. They
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: were at Milwaukee, my mistake. They were at Milwaukee. They
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: lost again, They got swept. They've lost a bunch of
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: games in a row. So it's like which one of
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: these teams is gonna win? They both can't, Like neither
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: of them could possibly win. What's going on? Anim's lost
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: seven games in a row. They're coming off getting swept
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: in back to back series. They're having to travel from
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee into elevation, which is not easy to do either.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: We're looking at two bad bullpends here. We're looking at
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers. I don't know we're gonna get out of
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: the starting pitchers. Anaeim is the better of the two offenses.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Colorado's offense not that good, although it is better at home.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Mitch Farris is pitching for the Angels. He is a rookie.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: He's only made three starts so far. He's been okay.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Four point eighty RA one point two whip isn't terrible.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: Kind of indicates maybe the IRA should be a little
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: bit better. He hasn't been He's been worse on the
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: road so far though, with a six roady Ram. Two
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: of his three starts have been on the road. Really
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: only one of them was bad though, but it was
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: at Seattle, which is a pitcher from the ballpark. He
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: had four walks in that one, so his walks are
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: concerning a fourteen to seven strike a walkers year. He'd
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer and runs in his other two starts.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Seattle was able to get to him a bit, but
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: again too many walks fourteen to seven strike a walk ratio.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: So his command is what kind of worries me about him.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Obviously Colorado has never faced him before, so maybe he
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: has a little bit of an advantage there just because
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: Colorado hasn't seen him before. Bradley Blaylock pitching for Colorado.
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: I believe this is his rookie season. It has not
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: been very good for him. Actually, he was on Milwaukee
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: briefly last year. He pitched. He made six starts last
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: year for Colorado. My mistake. He hasn't been good this year.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Ninety ra one point eight to whip. Just it's been
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: bad for him at cours Field, Mane like a twelve
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: point five to eighty R that is awful. Just hasn't
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: been getting it done. Man. It looks like he was
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: in the minors maybe for about a month, came back
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: up and didn't do well at San Diego pitcher Friendly Park.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: Was bad. Two walks, no strikeouts in three and he's
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: given five and runs bad stuff. Guessing Anaheim probably hasn't
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: faced him before and now they have not. So what
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: do you do here? Man? I mean, you got to
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: kind of give Anaheim a little bit of an edge
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: there as far as the starting pitching is concerned. But
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in, and the offense and the bullpens
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: are both terrible. Money's coming in against Anaheim, though, I
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: mean they do have a terrible run differential. Colorado's is
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: still worse though obviously, I think this is the worst
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: in baseball by far. Eighty five percent of tickets, sixty
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on Anaheim, So their road favorite.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: That's how bad Colorado is. That basically the worst team
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: in the AL is favorite against them in their place
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty down to minus one fifteen. So the
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: money's coming in against Anaheim. That's their money line favorite there.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: They already money line favorite. There nine tickets, ninety percent
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the oder, some money coming in
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: the under which the total is at twelve, and it's
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: gone down to twelve, juice to the under. I mean,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: I guess I could see some arguments fro an Under
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: in the first five. I would not want to deal
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: with the Bullpens at all. First five. You could maybe argue,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: is that unfamiliarity unfamiliarity aspect they would both start as
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: it could maybe hold this under, but I definitely worry
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: about that. I'm still thinking at Anaheim, you know, does
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: have the advantages there. So I just don't really understand
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: why the money's coming in against them, other than maybe
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: the price just being too high, Like why is Anaheimer
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: road favored against anybody? But the way he's pitched so far,
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: I think Farris is more trustworthy than Blaylock. And then
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: the Bullpens are just kind of a washed or disaster
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: on both sides. So I don't know what you want
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: to do with that, or you could maybe go Anaheim
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: first five. I don't know. Man Milwaukee at Saint Louis.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis didn't play yesterday and they're not traveling, they're
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: staying at home. They did just lose at Milwaukee two
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: out of three the series. Prior to that, Saint Louis
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: is just playing out the stretch man. Their office has
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: been really bad recently. Saint Louis has the better of
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens. Milwaukee definitely has the better offense, and
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: their offense is better on the road. But is Milwaukee
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: just kind of coasting right now? I don't know. I mean,
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: Cubs got kind of close to the Milwaukee has kind
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: of some reason to try to make sure they have
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: the best record in baseball so that they have home
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: field throughout. Milwaukee has won five of the last six. Now,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: they did just sweep Anheigh, but they did play yesterday.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: Now they're traveling, starting a road trip. He's usually still
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: a focus spot when you start a road trip. Saint
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: Louis probably will show up for this because it is
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee coming into their place, so with nothing really left
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: to play for, one of the types of games you
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: will get up for is a game where the top
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: team in your division is coming in, Like, you'll show
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: up and try in a game like that. In my opinion, Milwaukee,
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: as far as their bullpen usage, used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: so their bullpen even though well, Saint Louis is the
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: better bullpen anyway though, so Saint Louis does have a
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge. Starting pitching, you probably have to give the
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: edge to Milwaukee. They do have Jacob Mizzierowski pitching, and
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: he's had some struggles though. I mean, of course he's
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: a really young rookie, but he hasn't been as good
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: as Skemes was when Skeens first joined the and the
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: majors there. I mean, Missierowski has been a bit up
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: and down. Four point three to five era not that
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: great is with this pretty good though one point one
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: to three he has been worse than the road though
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: five point six one roady ira been a little bit
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: more difficult for him on the road. His first start
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: ever was actually against Saint Louis and he actually no
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: hit them for five innings, five strikeouts, four walks, so
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: it was too many walks. And then he faced them
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: again in his most recent outing, so Saint Louis just
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: saw him again and they got to him that time
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: for feign runs, four strikeouts, one walk. So Mizierowski I
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: worry about him a little bit. Man because one of
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: the edges he's gonna have is that unfamiliarity edge. Saint
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Louis is the most familiar team with them, so I
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: think you might worry about Misserowski a little bit. His
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: numbers are only okay this month of three starts. Still
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: a high strikeout ray for the most part, sixteen strikeouts,
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: four walks, not bad four point four to one RA
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: though he's allowed some runs. Man failed to make it
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: five innings against Philadelphia. I know they're a good offense,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: but if you're basically supposed to be the next new
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: like elite pitcher, you're gonna have to start pitching better
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: than this, and maybe he will. I mean, he has
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: the talent. He throws one hundred miles an hour more
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: than any other team in the league, so he definitely
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: is able to do it against Saint Louis's numbers are
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: actually kind of weird. I mean, we just showed you
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: those two starts and the numbers. When you look at
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: what those numbers look like as far as the bats
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: are concerned, it makes missy Rowski look like he can
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: handle Saint Louis a little bit better. Thirty one at bats,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: they have six hits against. It's just that it's two doubles,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: two on them runs, so the power numbers have kind
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: of been there. Eight to three strike a walk ratio
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: not that great of a ratio form, but he sell
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: him to a really low one ninety four average. Obviously
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: that's good. Seven to sixteen ops is high considering how
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: low that batting average is. It's still pretty low overall,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: but he's just allowed too much power to them. So
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: we'll see what he's able to do here. He's going
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: up against Sonny Gray, who's the much older pitcher. Gray
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: an appropriate name for him at this point. Probably he's
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: kind of tailed off towards the later part of the season. Man,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: he's a good pitcher. He's been good throughout his career,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: but maybe he's starting to wear down a little bit.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Always says really good command, a good strikeout walk ratio
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: and stuff, but sometimes he gets hit too hard. He's
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: got a four point four to three ERA one point
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: two to whip this season probably indicates his ERA should
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: be a little bit better. He is better at home
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: four point h four e R at home. He's been
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit better his last couple of starts
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: along three or four earned runs against San Francisco and
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: then Milwaukee. He did just face Milwaukee. He did well
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: in that start though, on the road, in five innues,
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: pitch two and runs, a lot of eight strikeouts, one walk,
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: so kind of a bounce back start for him after
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: he'd walked three guys or more than three straight starts.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: So kind of difficult to gauge where you're gonna get
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: out of Gray here. He is a nineteen to eight
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: strike a walk raceuer this month, which is a high
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: strike out rate. It's too many walks and a six
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: point six one ERA is obviously a high ERA. But
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: he hasn't allowed that many hits really, It's just been
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: kind of some timely hitting against him. The A's took
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: him deep three times. So I don't know, man, I'll
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: be against Milwaukee Gray. His numbers are mediocre slash not great,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty eight at bats. He has a
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: pretty solid forty eight to twelve strike a walk ratio
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: against somebody's a lot of two seventy eight average eight
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: ten ops. So I don't know that we can really
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: bank on Gray in this game either. I mean, I
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: see some reasons to maybe start looking towards an over
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: in this game, the total is low seven and a half,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: it is juice to the over seventy five percent tickets,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: only sixty eight percent of the cash in the over.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: So the public seems to kind of like the over.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe just because it's a Brewers game, but
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: they got to be seeing the starting pitching matchup and
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: maybe kind of thinking otherwise. But maybe not. I mean,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: I could see maybe these pitchers both giving up some
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: runs here. Maybe Missy Rowski won't go that deep into
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: this game with the Saint Louis offense is pretty bad,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: but seven and a half, this is not a lot
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: of leeway there with that number. A Milwaukee's up for
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: minus one fifteen to minus one eighteen is a road
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: favorite here eight and nine percent of tickets, nine to
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on them. So they're public
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: looks like the money might be coming in them Milwaukee.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: I'd probably agree with it. I might keep it to
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: first five innings though, because Saint Louis is rested and
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen. So if you want Milwaukee,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: probably you're just banking on lay Miss to out lay
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: versus Gray. I know, miss versus Gray, You're you're out pitching.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: You're banking on miss to outpitch Gray in that starting
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup. So that's the way that I would approach
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: that game. I guess Philadelphia at Arizona. Arizona, I believe
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: didn't play yesterday, but they did lose a wind streak.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: They had four wins in a row. They lost to
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: San Francisco and then had yesterday off and they're staying
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: at home. So Arizona a little bit of an edge
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: there as far as rest staying at home. But you know,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: I talk about when you lose a win streak, sometimes
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: you effectively lose the game twice and it hangs you
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: over a little bit. But I still think they will
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: be focused because it is Philly coming into their place.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: It's a series with Arizona basically playing out the stretch
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, they're actually technically still in
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: the wildcard race, but I think it'll be a little
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: bit more motivating that it's Philly that's coming into their place.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: So they might want to show up for a game
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: like that. But they are coming off losing that win streak.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: But Philly is coming off a big series themselves. They
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: were in LA and they won the series against the Dodgers,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: winning the first two and winning two out of three.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: They got shut out in the last game, but they
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: are coming off a big series. Man, if Philly they've
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: already wrapped up their division, they still could potentially catch
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: the Brewers, so they do have that to play for it.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: But they've already won the division. They're already gonna be
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: one of the top seeds. I don't know if Philly
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: is gonna be someone on cruise control at some point.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, this series means less than that Dodgers series
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: did because it was the Dodgers. This is just the Diamondbacks.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: Philly has a bad bullpen, but so does Arizona. And
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: both bullpens are bad, but Arizonas is worse. But both
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: bullpen's actually rested yesterday a Philly. Oh yeah, Philly didn't
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: play yesterday either. I'm like, wait a minute, what, Yeah,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: Philly didn't play either, and they're traveling and so both
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: teams arrested yesterday. My mistake. So they're too bad bullpens.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: But they're both rested at least. I still wouldn't trust
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: the bullpens, though Philly Taiwan Walker pitching. I don't know
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: if I trust him really either four point one seventy
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: RA not terrible. One point three to nine whip indicates
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: his ERA should be higher. That's too many men on base.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: He is better on the road three point eight six
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: road ERA. Last four starts have been rough, though he's
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: only made it past five in hees once. He's allowed
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: four and runs or more in all of them. Six
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: to five strike at walkerra sure this month, and a
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: seven point eight e RA this month of three starts.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: Two of the starts against Miami and Kansas City. That's
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: not a good sign of those are weak offense. The
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: other one was against Milwaukee, so they're more difficult. But
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: still he's not looking like he's pitching well right now.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not great against Arizona, although it's a
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: very small ten at bat sample size twelve to one
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, Moreno has a home run against him.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: He's a lot of three hundred average to them, one
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: thy sixty four oh ps. That's not very good. Now
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: he's going up against Ryan Nelson, who I still think
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: is cheating at home. He's had a pretty good season
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: from out of nowhere. As I've pointed out many times,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know how it's happened other than yeah, maybe
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: you know the pine tar on the Vizor three point
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: three four ERA one point oh six whip for him.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: He's been way better at home two point five to
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: one home ERA, even though it's a hitter friendly park,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: and so the Arizona pictures have been worse this season
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: where they should have been better than they are. So
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't quite get it. Nelson. He's
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: been good last four starts, three or four in runs
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: allowed in all of them, uh this month to ERA,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: although too many walks fourteen to seven strike a walk.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: Ratio walked three a piece against the Red Sox and
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota the last two times out, but went six
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: innings in all five of those up the last five starts,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: six and a third in the one prior to that
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: at Colorado, by the way, but he gave up four
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: runs in that one, but it was course field, so
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: to me, I do think he is basically informed, even
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: though the walk numbers are a bit too. How he
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: only lewed one on and run in those last two
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: starts despite all the walks against Minnesota and the Red Sox,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: so he's still in pretty good form here. I mean,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: I think you gotta trust him over Taiwan Walker. I
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: mean that's kind of ridiculous. So though Philly can hit,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, both these teams are good offensively. Philly probably
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: has the better offense of the two, although it's slight.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: They're both there. They're both in the top five offensively.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Even though Arizona traded some of their hitters right around
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: the trade deadline, Nelson has been okay against Philadelphia and
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: forty nine to bats seventeen to four strake a walk
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: right shar That is good. Two sixty five batting average
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: allots seven forty three oh ps. Those are solid numbers
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: considering which offense it is. Is a good offense, So
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: I do think you gotta lean towards Arizona in this game.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpens, I mean, I wouldn't blame
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: you if you don't want to have the Arizona's bullpen involved,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: because they do stink. But where are they at now,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: where's Arizona's bullpen? Yeah they are, they're fourth warst So
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: Phillies is a little bit better than that. So yeah,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: I don't blame you if you want to discount the
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: bullpens here Arizona first five innings seems like maybe a
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: decent way to look in this one. I do there's
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: that little bit of a hangover effect with losing a
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: win streak for Arizona there, but that's probably the way
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: I would look That one. Hasn't made my card here,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: but the money seems to agree with it. Fifty four
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Philly, sixty one percent of the
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on Arizona. Yeah, I mean that is
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: I would agree with it. Again, That's the way that
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: I would lean in that one. And then we finished
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: it off with the late night game on Apple TV,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: which Apple TV I guess has Toronto, Kansas City and
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: San Francisco Dodgers. Tonight MLB Network will have Cubs, Reds
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: and Philly Arizona, so at least the televised games are
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: some of the better games. San Francisco at the Dodgers here,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: both teams would be motivated for this. I mean, it's
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: a divisional series. Even though San Francisco is most likely
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: out of it, they're gonna show up for a series
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers. The Dodgers only won two to one
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: last night, so Logan Webb I believe was pitching for
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. He actually did pitch well. I forget who
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: the picture was for the Dodgers last night, but it
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: was a good pitcher performance on both sides. I think
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: it was Yama Mota, right, So both pitchers did pretty well.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: Theres have a three game lead in the NL West.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: They're still trying to hang on to that. Both teams
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: obviously was something to play for here. Well, maybe not
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: as obvious on the San Francisco side, but again they're
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: facing the Dodgers, so that's where easing enough. In my opinion.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: San Francisco only us one relief pitcher yesterday. They're the
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. Todgers used a lot of their relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: so there's a big bullpen edge on the San Francisco
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: side here. Starting pitching, I don't think is an edge
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: for San Francisco though. With Robbie Ray pitching, he's had
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: a good season, but it looks like he's starting to
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: wear down a little bit. Man. I don't know about
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: his innings pitched account here. He hasn't thrown this many
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: innings since twenty twenty two at least, and he's a
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: little bit older now. I is a three point five
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: YRRA in the season, one point two whip. Obviously, that's
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He's done a little bit better on the
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: road to three point two eighty r on the road,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: but he struggled recently. Man, He's a lot four more
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: and runs in three of his last four starts this
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: month is a seven point two four ERA. Eighteen strikeouts
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: is a ton, but seven walks. He's walked a lot
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: of guys here in games at Course Field against Arizona
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: and at the Dodgers. I mean, I know those are
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: not easy offenses to face, but he's facing the Dodgers
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: here and they just pretty much lit them up for
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: five earned runs in four inn he's at San Francisco.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: Four walks as well, five strikeouts, six hits allowed. Wasn't
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: a great performance from him. His numbers are not great
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers. Generally, in one hundred and sixty one
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: at bats, forty five to twenty five strikeout walk ratios,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: way too many walks, two fifty five batting average about
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: eight to fifty eight ops. The average isn't that high,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: but he's a lot of pretty high ops to them, man,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: So they've hit him for power, So I don't know
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: if I could trust Ray, and in the form that
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: he's in, I don't think I could trust him. Clayton
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: Kershaw's pitching for the Dodgers. Decent season for him, three
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: point five to three ERA, one point two two whip.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit injured. He might be a
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: little bit extra pumped up for this game though, because
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: he just announced that he is retiring at the end
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: of the season. I kind of didn't expect it because
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: he's been okay this year and he's thirty seven. A
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: lot of guys will pitch deeper into their careers. You know,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: it looks like he hasn't totally lost yet. But he
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: has announced that he's retiring, and because of that, the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: Dodgers might really come out and show something here and
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: might want to play for him. Man, So I think
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: that's a motivating factor in this game. He might pitch better,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: the team might like kind of rally around him. I
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: know it's not gonna be his last game, but it's
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: getting there. I mean, we don't have too much left
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: of the season here. How many more games is he
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: even gonna pitch? This is gonna be his last home
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: game actually of the regular season, so likely. I mean
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: he will pitch in the playoffs likely, but this is
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be his last home game of his career, so
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: that's pretty big man. So it is a it's gonna
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: be a big outing for him. He's a bit better
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: at home three point three eighty RAM, so that is
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: a motivating factor that matters. I worry about the recent
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: form that he's in though, Man thirteen to nine strike
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: a walk raceire this month. That's pretty ugly, six point
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: five ninety RA. Maybe just he looked at the way
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: he was pitching this month that kind of just decided, yeah,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be it. Just wearing down a little
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: bit here. Hasn't really pitched that much this season either.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's it is pretty impressive what he's been
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: able to do this season, though, But I know there
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: are some guys that are out there who are older
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: than him. We're still out there doing it. Verlanders shures,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: are you know Morton more? Morton probably shouldn't be though.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: Maybe the other guys shouldn't be either. I don't know Kershaw,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: but yeah, he struggled a bit this month. Man, it
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: hasn't been a good good offense is either all the
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: starts are on the road though Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and then
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: this very San Francisco team. He only went three innings
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: in that one. Allowed four walks, five hits, four and runs,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: not a good outing, two strikeouts. Generally he is good
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: against San Francisco. I mean, that is what you expect.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: But obviously a lot of these numbers are from past
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: years and not this year where he's starting to wear
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: down a little bit. One hundred and twenty six at bats,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: thirty seven to nine strike a walk ratio, good numbers here,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: and one ninety eight average allowed five to fourteen ops.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: Good stuff. But even though, yeah, he's gonna be motivated,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: I can definitely see the ring for the Dodgers here.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: You gotta worry about the Dodgers' bullpend Dodgers is sitting
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: in a minus one seventy favorite here seems a bit heavy,
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: probably paying a bit too much for Kershaw and maybe
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: even for the retirement factor. Here eighty seven percent of tickets,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on the Dodgers. The
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: money looks like it is coming in on the Dodgers.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: If you wanted to do it, you'd probably have to
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: go Dodgers run line, and that means you have to
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: deal with San Francisco's bullpen advantage, So that would worry
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: me a bit. I mean, I guess you will. You
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: could go Dodger's first five inning run line if you
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: wanted to. I guess you could do that. You do
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: probably get the benefit of the matchup nubers between Kershaw
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: and Ray at least, but I worry about Kershaw's recent
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: forum man a Dodgers. We do know they score a
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: lot at home, so that is part of this, you know,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: like the ability to cover a run line at home.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: If you do it first five innings, you don't have
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: to worry about them losing an inning of at bats
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: and the ninth inning because they'll get all five at
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: bats and you still get the advantage of the Dodgers
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: having a really good offense at home. I think the
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: way to look at this game is actually the over.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: Though sorry to Kershaw. I know it's gonna be a big,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: you know, motivated game for him, but he hasn't been
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: in good form recently. The totals flip from eight and
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: ap juice to under eight and a half juice to
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: the over. I think both pitchers come with some pretty
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: big question marks here. I believe this is also a
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: battle of lefties, which is interesting. Of tickets, ninety one
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over here money looks
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: to get his coming in on the over, and you
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: got one at least pretty bad bullpen with the Dodgers.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: I know San Francisco's bullpen isn't bad, but most of
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: the components are there actually for an over, and I
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: think the public's gonna actually kind of shy away slightly
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: from the over, even though usually they'd be on an
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: over in a Dodgers game. But I think they're thinking, oh,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: both these pitchers have goodie. Irais Kershaw. He's like a
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: Hall of Fame pitcher, so I think the tendency is
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: going to be more to want to bank on him
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: pitching well here. But I would go over in that
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: game if I was gonna play that. I think that's
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: actually probably the best way to play that game. So
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: that was the breakdown. I forgot to put the graphics up.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: We'll go to best bets. They're all in baseball, and
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: then I am going to talk about college football and
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: then get out of here. So for the best bet,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: segment here. First one up, We're gonna go with the
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles first five innings here, man, I know the
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: Yankees have the better offense. We know the Yankees are
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: the better offense. Yankees, I mean, both bullpens are pretty bad,
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: but probably the Yankees actually have the slightly better of
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: the bullpens. And they didn't use that many pitchers yesterday.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: Baltimore used a lot more. So I don't want anything
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: to do with Baltimore's bullpen here. We're gonna focus just
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: on the starting pitching matchup right. I think Baltimore does
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: have an edge here. You can find a decent price
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: on this first five inning money line here, just to
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: minus one ten and them with the money line. If
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: it's tied at the end of five, the bet will
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: push Yankees shut Baltimore out yesterday. Yes, I know the
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: Yankees are still motivated here. They've won three games in
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: a row. Yes, I get it. You know the Yankees
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: are trying to make a wildcard spot, potentially trying to
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: win the Al East. Still, we get all that motivated here.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: But Baltimore, I mean they lost yesterday and an ugly
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: shut out. It is the Yankees and their place Baltimore.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: I think they do want to play spoiler. There is
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: reason for Baltimore to show up here. They a whole
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: lot left to play for. Normally you'd want to fade
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen, which is weird that I'm going with
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: the first five innings. Say the Yankees bullpen was a
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: train wreck in like they've been a train wreck most
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: of the season, but recently, even though they added some
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: guys at the trade deadline, it seems like it didn't
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: even help. Like they were really bad in that Minnesota series.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: They're really bad against Detroit. Crazy, But I know Baltimore's
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: bullpen sucks. I just don't want any part of it.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: The starting pitching matchup, to me, looks like it is
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: an edge for Baltimore. We got Will Warren pitching for
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. He is not their best pitcher. Four point
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: four to four ERA, one point three to eight whip
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: not great numbers. He is particularly bad on the road.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: His road he I Ray's like over one and a
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: half runs higher than it is at home. Five point
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: eight one ERA on the road. That's pretty bad. So
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: he is worse on the road. He's coming off another
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: ugly road outing at Boston he did last five innings.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: He gave up six Ron runs in the first inning
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: and then he settled down. Jazz Chisholm kind of fucked
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: him by refusing to catch a foul pop fly. Warren
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: probably still would have allowed about five runs if that
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: didn't happen. But Yankees have lost his last three starts.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: All of his starts this month. Didn't do too badly
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: against Houston and Detroit. Of course, the bullpen got absolutely
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: annihilated after he was out of the Detroit game. His
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio is pretty good eleven to two,
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: not many walks at all, not many strike cuts anymore
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: at this point, but five point six three ERA this month.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: That last start was pretty abysmal, So I do worry
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: about Warren here. Baltimore hasn't seen a ton of them,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: but they have been able to hit him. Five of
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: their hitters have face. I'm only fifteen at bats. I
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: know it's a small sample size, but he has three
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: strike cuts and three walks against him. Yes, I know
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: all three walks are Henderson, though, but they have a
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: four hundred average and one hundred oo ps against him.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: So I think Warren could do a bit poorly in
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: this one man, even though I know he's a little
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: bit unfamiliar to Baltimore. Still he's going up against Trevor Rodgers,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: who I know. I didn't have any faith in him
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: at all coming into this season, Like looking at his
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: past numbers with Miami, his numbers at Triple A, I
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: was like, he's not gonna be good, and he is
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: shocked everybody. He's been excellent one point four to three
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: e R, a point eight to nine whip I've had
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: some winners playing on his side or on unders with
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: him as of late. Yeah, I know his numbers are
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: unsustainable for sure, but like if you look at like
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: the advanced analytics guys talk about like expected e R
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: and whatever like based on like how many walks, how
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: many hits he's given up, like whatever, what is what
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: should is the RA be? Like I guess his whip
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: band is the RA should both be higher than they
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: actually are. But still I think it's expected ERA is
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: still like around three, which is still solid. He's been
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: good at home one point one e R A. At
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: home he's given up touring runs or fewer and every
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: single outing except for his second outing of the season,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: which was at that Tampa Bay statium, which is awful,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: and he's given up one urn run or fewer in
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: all but one to start going all the way back
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: into late July, which was also at Tampa. Or you
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: give up to hourn runs so you throw those starts out.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's only a lot more than one run
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: once aside from the starts at that Tampa stadium. I
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: know that's insane. Can't keep doing this. How does he
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: keep getting away with it? I don't know. But the
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: last two outings this month were against good offenses to
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: Dodgers Toronto, didn't even really matter one point seven four era.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: You only allowed tour in runs combined, didn't go as
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: deep into those starts. But for a first five, we
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: only need him to go five here, which he did
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: in each of those last two twelve to five startle walkers. Yea,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: he had too many walks against Toronto four walks, but
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: seems like maybe a little bit of an outlier. It
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like really that much of a trend. And
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: because he started pitching later in the season, he hasn't
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: thrown that many innings yet, so I'm not totally worried
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: about him. Wearing out, yet he threw more innings last
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: season where his numbers were or excuse yeah, last season
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: between Miami and Baltimore, and his numbers were really bad
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: last year, which again that's why I'm thinking, like, how
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: is he this good right now? But I'm not gonna
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: question it right now, and hopefully we just get this
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: one right. His numbers against the Yankees are pretty good.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: In thirty four at bats, they only have six hits
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: off him, eight strike out, six walks. Yeah, I know
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: that's too many walks, but one seventy six average a
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: lot five ninety four. Ohps, we'll roll with it. Will
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: go with the Baltimore Orioles in the first five innings.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: It's it's gonna be a fade of the public. Although
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: it does look like the money's kind of coming in
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: on the Yankees right now. They are down for minus
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: one eighteen of minus one seventeen, So I do think
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get a decent price on this given the
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup here, seventy two percent of tickets ninety
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the Yankees. I worry
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: about that cash percentage a little bit, but it looks
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: like you are fading the public here at least with
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: this one. Uh the total did go up from nine
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: juice to the under to nine, but it looks like
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: some of the money is actually coming in the under.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: Fifty percent of tickets on the under sixty percent of
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under. If you're gonna go under,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: you would have to go first five innings here. There's
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: no way that he'd want an under with these two
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: bullpends in my opinion. So but you know, Will Warren
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: doesn't really seem like that creative an idea for that. Again,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: I think the way to do this is Baltimore in
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: the first five innings. That is what I'm gonna do,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: and at least it's a public made Pete, what's up, man,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: You're gonna go with the Orioles as well, first five
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: innings only though, Man, yeah, there you go. Let's let's
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: get a winner on it, man, Pete, I think you
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: won on the Reds first five inning the other day,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: right when you mentioned you were on the Reds, which
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: was not yesterday. Yesterday, I actually gave out a play
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: on the Reds and they got they got it done.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: But I think it was a day where I didn't
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: give out the Reds as an actual play, I think,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: but they I said that they were my lean. I
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: think they won. I think, actually no, I think maybe
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: it was I don't know, maybe it was a play
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: for me on the full game you had first five minutes.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't remember, but I think they
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: both won. Nate, what's up, man? You had preseason hockey.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: I don't do any of the any preseason handicapping, man.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: Like I'll talk about the NFL a little bit, but
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not a preseason better. I know there are guys
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: that make money doing it, especially in the NFL. You
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: can find value, like more people are paying attention in
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: the NFL, but you gotta be quick to get those
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: numbers and try to get that information, like right when
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: it comes out, before the books move the numbers and whatever. NHL,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: I have no fucking clue, but I do obviously, I
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: do regular season NHL and NBA, and those are both
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: coming up in not too long. My boss and Bruins
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: better get their act together, man. That's all I gotta
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: say about that. Next up, we're gonna go with an under,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: because of course, it wouldn't be a baseball day without
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: me having an under right most days at least, it
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: feels like I haven't done like a full game over
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: for a while. But let's do it in Miami and Texas.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: You know, I talk about Texas Ballpark. It's a pitcher
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: friendly ballpark. Texas, it's still the case that in somewhere
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: around seventy percent of their home games this year, they've
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: allowed three or fewer earned runs to their opponents. Here,
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: They're pitching is good. It's a pitcher friendly park. We
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: got all that going for us. Texas was off yesterday,
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: so they got a rested bullpen and a good bullpen.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: Miami did play yesterday in Colorado, but I think that
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: can kind of affect a hitting, Like when you know
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: the teams have to travel and you're traveling out of elevation,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: I think that can kind of slow down the bats
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit. So hopefully that's what happens here with Miami.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: They are coming in from sweeping Colorado on the road whatever,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: Miami's just playing out the stretch. I don't know that
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: Miami is going to be totally focused on Texas. Texas
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: does have more to play for here, but they're starting
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: to probably realize they're done I mean that might have
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: been the death knell there for Texas. Man, so they
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: might be in a little bit of a sad, unfocused spot,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: which I think might kind of come into effect as
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: far as their hitting is concerned. Their hitting is not
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: good anyway, and we know their offense stinks. Neither of
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: these offenses are that good. Miami's kind of a mediocre offense.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: Texas week offense, Texas having yesterday off and returning home
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. By the way, they did go
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: to the Mets, but then they were just in Houston.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: I know, the last leg of this journey very short,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: but that does still mean they have home life to
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: return to. They're now five games back in the division.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: Highly unlikely they're gonna be able to win the division
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: at this point there. I believe three and a half
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: out of the wild cards, so they could still do it.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: But I think that Houston that might have like pretty
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: much crushed their season. Man, that Houston series, I mean,
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: they had to win one game in that series and
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: they got swept. That is just so brutal. So coming
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: out of that series seems like a difficult spot for
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: Texas to be in. Not arguing for the Miami side, though,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: I'm arguing for an under here, so I think that
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: will affect Texas hitting and of course the hitters, you know,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: like gauging the hitters as like a team, that's it's
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: easier to handicap the team. Like handicgapping the team. As
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: I said earlier today, you're basically handicapping what the hitting
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: is going to do. But then the starting pitcher might
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: do something completely different, and I think that's what you
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: might get in this game here. Now, as far as
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: the bullpen's, yes, Texas has a good bullpen. They're rested
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: here in Miami mediocre bullpen, but they're pretty rested. They
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: haven't used a ton of their bullpen recently, so I
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: think we're okay going full game on this one. We
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: are going to get Jansen Junk for Miami, but he's
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: actually been okay four point four to eighty R one
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: point one to nine whips, so I think he could
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: do well enough to help us out here. And he's
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: been better on the road, actually significantly, so three point
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: seven to two R on the road, So we're getting
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: him on the road here. He's been decent over the
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: last month plus. He's allowed three exactly earned runs in
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: five of the seven outings. I think is what that
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: is so mediocre. I mean, I think he can keep
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: you in the game at the very least here. I
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: know he hasn't been exactly terrific. Yeah, this month seven
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: point eight four ERA seven to three strike at walk right,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: I know that's not good. He got kind of bombed
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: at home by Washington. Both of his starts are actually
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: at home, and again he's better on the road. So
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: keeping all that in mind, he is kind of a
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: converted reliever, though he was a relief pitcher for a while.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: But overall, I mean his whip is pretty solid. He's
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: been decent enough that I think he can keep us
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: in this game. And again he's facing a weak Texas
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: line up here. Texas hasn't seen much of him. They
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: haven't seen much junk Junk. By the way, when junk
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: is a relief pitcher and he's coming in later in
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: the game, we call that junk in the trunk. But
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: we don't have that now because he's a starter. Only
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: four Texas hitters have ever faced him before. They're only
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: one for seven. Often the only hit is a double
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: from Dylan Moore. They have two strikeouts one walk from Garcia.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: It is true that Garcia is back, so he's one
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: of Texas's best hitters. He did come back, but still
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: Texas does have a weak lineup. One forty three batting
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: I was for them against Junk and five thirty six ops,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: so limited sample, I know, but they're not that familiar
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: with him. He's pitched well. And then on the Texas side,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: Tyler Molly is coming back in this game, and I
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: think this is a good thing. I talk about this
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: with veteran pitchers. He's a veteran pitcher. He's thirty years old.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty solid at different points in his career.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's kind of been weird. He's been hard
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: to predict. He's had years in his career where he
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: wasn't good. He's had years where he is good. And
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: he was pitching really well this season before he got
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: hurt two point three four ERA one point one to
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: three whip, which I don't think it was totally sustainable.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: But now he's coming back from a shoulder injury, and
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about this when veteran pitchers come back.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: I talked about this with Cole Reagan's the other day,
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: even though he wasn't that good, but he was good
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: enough to get us the win in that one, and
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: it was against a pretty good offense. Seattle's Molly is
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: facing facing my here. They're not very good offensively so
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: and just playing out the stratch at this point, Molly,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be pumped to get back out there, man,
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: And you know, there is that outside chance that maybe
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: Texas can do something for him. I think he is
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be motivated. I'm not sure that the hitting will
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: be Maybe the team will get up, you know, around him.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: But more so, when a pitcher is like motivating the
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: team around him, it affects the hitting a bit. Or
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: excuse it affects the pitching I think, or excuse me,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: I can't get it right. It affects the fielding behind him.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: Because he's out there, they're behind him, you know what
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: I mean. So the fielding tends to be better. Maybe
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: not the hitting, so we'll see, but I think Molly
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: will be pumped to get back out there. Man. He
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: wasn't good at Triple A. It was a very small
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: sample size and he had some rehab. I think he
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: made like two rehabs starts at Triple A and his
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: ear ray it was like in the sixes, which I
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: was like, oh shit, that's not good. I'm like a
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: one point five whip. So that does worry me a
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: little bit. But they're not gonna put him out there,
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: you know, in a crucial part of the season like this,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: unless they think he's ready to go back out there
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: and potentially help them. So we're gonna get that out
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: of him. And he's been way better at home this
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: year too, with azero point eight two era, which is absurd.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: I know again it's unsustainable, but we'll see what we
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: get here. He was pitching just crazy well this season.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: He allowed he'd allowed two or fewer earned runs going
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: up into late May where he allowed three on runs
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: once pitched another shot out, and then his last two
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: outings he was a little bit worse. He gave up
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: four and runs in each of them on the road,
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: both of them at Tampa and me he'd give him
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: a pass for that, probably because Tampa Stadium very difficult
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: to pitch, and the other one against Minnesota maybe less
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: less excusable, but maybe he was dealing with an injury
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: getting hurt. So I'm still not gonna put that much
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: stock into that. I think what he really is is
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: somewhere between what we see here, Like he's not quite
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: as good as his season numbers look, but he's not
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: as bad as he was in his last two starts.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: Going up against Miami. I don't think they've ever seen
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: him before. Yes, so we have another edge from Molly Miami,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: even though he's thirty years old, they've never faced They
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: don't have any hitters who've ever faced him before. So
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: Molly has another little bit of an edge here. He's
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to the hitters, so I like it. We're gonna
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: go with the under in this game. Hopefully that analysis
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: makes sense. We have fifty seven percent of the cash,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: fifty percent tickets excuse me, nine to nine percent of
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under, and the tolls dropped from
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to eight. Not really a significant
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: move there. It's kind of in no man's land. So
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: we will go with the under here, and we you
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: see the money coming in against Texas, which I was
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: kind of making that argument a little while ago that
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: Texas could be in sort of like kind of a
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: dream crusher scenario. Almost after they had to win one
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: of those games against Houston then now for minus one
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: fifty five to minus one forty five on the money line,
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: ninety one percent of tickets public coming in on Texas,
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: but Texas season might be over man, and only seventy
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash So Texas very public money
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: coming in against them, which gives me hope that Junk
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: might actually pitch a bit better than you think in
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: this game. Does mean maybe Texas offense just won't be
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: totally focused. But then on the other hand, I think
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: Molly will be pumped to just get back on the
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: hill man, So I think we get all that going
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: for us here. We'll go with the under, like I said,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: and the move between eight and a half eight. Like
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: those numbers are kind of dead numbers as far as
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: it's total, I mean, not totally dead, but the odd
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: numbers matter more so if you get the better price
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: than the eight, go under eight instead of eight and
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: a half. Long season for the Bruins. Charlie macavoy kid,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be at the Olympics. Yeah. Connor McDavid not
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: a fan of him, postanak Yeah he's yeah, he's really
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: good man. It's just the team has not been playing well.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: I know, they fired their coach in the middle of
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: the season, and their coach went on and did way
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: better and got the Blues into the playoffs. Montgomery, I mean,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: he just I don't think he was the right fit
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: in Boston. Anymore of them and they're gonna need to
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: do something. But this Boston, I mean, there's still a
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: talented enough team to be a playoff team here. Man,
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the fuck last season was. They
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: got to get back to the playoffs. They got to
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: get back to their winning ways. I like going to
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: the playoff games. I usually go to the playoff games,
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: as though now I don't have a job right now,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: so we'll see. But all the playoff games I use
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: go to, like one every series. Man, it was fun
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: to go to the playoff games for the Bruins, probably
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: the most fun actually going to any of the like
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: going to versus like Celtics versus Red Sox versus Bruins.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: The Bruins crowd is just a bunch of drunk, bearded men, basically,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: like this is my crowd, you know. Even I think
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: it's fun to go to Red Sox and Celtics too,
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: But yeah, a last game people might not like this one,
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: and people probably thought I was gonna go under in
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: this one. But I'm gonna go with the Houston Astros
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: on the money line here. This is against Seattle. This
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: is a huge series for both teams, man, which is
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: why I put it in the title. It's the biggest
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: of these games that I have a play on. Yeah,
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: I am a little bit worried that the money looks
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: like it's disagreeing with me and coming in on Seattle.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: And I know you're looking at this, you're thinking under
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: because it's Wu against Brown. I like both of these pitchers.
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: They're both good. So I'm a little bit worried that
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: I'm fading Wu here. But I think there are some
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: reasons to do it. Seattle flip from plus one of
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: five to minus one o six. I just don't really
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: understand it takes sixty six percent of cash coming down
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: Seattle's Seattle's taking the money. Yeah, I mean, I'm going
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: against that sentiment, but I just I don't see it, man. Houston.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: First of all, Houston didn't play yesterday, and yeah, they
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: just swept text at home, so you might think and there, Well,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: that means they're sitting there kind of basking in this. Well, No,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: I don't really think this is gonna be a letdown
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: spot or anything like that. I know that was a
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: big series, but so is this one. Houston is tied
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: to Seattle for the division. Of course, you'd rather get
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: the division than You'd rather be the divisional winner than
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: be a wildcard. Man. I have home field for more
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs, and I think that matters is speaking
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: of home field, Houston's way better at home forty six
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: and thirty two at home. Seattle's not good on the
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: road thirty six and forty two on the road. So
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: we're getting the home team here with Houston. They have
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: a pretty solid home road dichotomy, and so does Seattle
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: going in the opposite direction there, So we're going to
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: a team that's not so good on the road and
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: their pitchers tend to not do as well on the road. Hint, hint.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: Even though Wu's not exactly bad on the road, but
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: he is worse on the road, and we're getting Houston,
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: who's good at home. At home, Houston's rested. It's a
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: big series here. Both bullpens are fairly solid. I know
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: Houston's kind of struggled a little bit. They've had some
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: injuries there, but Seattle's had more use even though I
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: know they didn't use a ton of relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: but they used some and they had to play yesterday,
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: and they're having to travel down from Kansas City. So
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle has no time off plus travel, and Houston doesn't
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: have either of those. Houston has rested and staying at home.
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: So I think those are advantages to Houston here. Man. Yes,
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: Seattle has the better offense, I get that, but we're
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the situation and the pitching here. Seattle's eleventh,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: Houston's not that much further down. Actually, Houston at thirteenth.
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: We're looking at team ops there, and as far as
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are concerned, Seattle is only very slightly better
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: at three point seventy a round the season, Houston three
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: point seven. Fourth city went's between ninth and eleventh in baseball.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: I know that includes when Houston had like Hater still
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: there and he's he's such a hater man, and he's
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: hurt right now. But whatever, Houston's the more rested bullpen here,
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: so gives him a slight edge. Yes, it does mean
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: we're fading Brian Wu, which is dangerous. He is really
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: good three point zero two ERA point nine to four WHIP,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: but he's not quite as good on the road three
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: point five eight road ERA. He does. You know, he
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: does allow too many home runs, which is a little
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: bit strange because Wu is really really good otherwise. Yeah,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: I know, he's been really good. He's been good recently too.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: I get it. He's allowed three or fewer runs in
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: every start going all the way back through the beginning
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: of August. He's allowed two or fewer in all but
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: two of those starts. I know. Seattle's won six of
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: his last eight. I understand. I get all that against Houston,
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: though his numbers are actually surprisingly not good. In seventy
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: two at bats, Houston has been one of the teams
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: has been able to actually hit him. Most teams are
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: not able to, but Houston has, and they're familiar with him.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: Of course. Seventy two at bats, fourteen to two strike
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio is really good for him. But Houston
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: has a three zero six batting average against him eight
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: thirty eight ops, and the damage is kind of spread
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: throughout their lineup, with four home runs across four different batters,
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: so Wu isn't quite as good on the road, even
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: though he's still pretty good, but he's beatable on the
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: road at least, and Houston does actually hit him well.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: Houston has some of the best offensive numbers against him
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: out of any lineup, so even though they're not one
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: of the absolute top tier offenses, that is the case.
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: And WU has to go up against Hunter brown Man,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: so he's Houston's ace at this point two point two
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: seven e RA one whip, so his numbers are actually
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: better than Wu's, although the WHIP is a little bit higher,
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: but the numbers overall, I think become better than Wo's
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: because he is better at home than WU is on
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: the road. Brown doesn't have significant splits. He has a
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: two point twenty five ERA at home. Speaking of Wu,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: what he's done recently, look at what Brown has done recently.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: He's allowed two or fewer and runs in every start
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: going all the way back through his last start in July.
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: And July. I think he just got thrown off a
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: little bit because he got named to the All Star
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: team for the first time, so he was a little
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: bit shaky around the All Star breaking. He's been dominant
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: pretty much throughout the season other than that, he's allowed
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: two or fewer in runs throughout the entire season other
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: than like two other starts besides the ones around the
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: All Star breaks. So he's been excellent against Seattle. Good
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: numbers against them and one hundred and fifteen at bass
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: so even though they're familiar with them, forty four to
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: eleven strike a walk ratio of that solid two to
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: twenty six batting average allowed and six forty seven ops.
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: So he's been good against against Seattle. So we're gonna
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: roll with it. Man. I think Houston has the travel
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: edge of the rest edge. Both teams do have motivation here.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: The bullpens I think slightly go to Houston here just
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: because of the rest advantage. They'd be kind of a wash. Otherwise,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, the hitting is almost a bit of
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: a wash here. And I actually think we have a
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: starting pitching advantage with Hunter Brown. So I'm going against
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: the market there and we're gonna go with Houston. I
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: wasn't quite gonna do it, like I'm looking at the
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. I was thinking, oh, this is gonna be
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: an undoer. But when I dug into it, I decided
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: Houston was right. Hopefully it is. The total is very low,
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: by the way, it's headed towards six and headed towards seven.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: Excuse mely it's seven and a half. Heavily juice the under.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: It'll probably be at seven, and that's expected. I mean,
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: this is a great pitching matchup. I'm not saying who's
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be bad in this game, by the way, I'm
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: just saying that Houston has enough edges that I think
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: they can pull this game out. And you're getting not
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: a very expensive price on them. Seventy three percent of tickets,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of catch on the unders. The money
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the under, I get it. I
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: mean both bullpens are solid, sorry, pitchers are both very good,
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: so the under just makes a lot of sense. So
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: it's one of those obvious unders. But in this case,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not going that way, and maybe it's too obvious.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: Who knows. We'll go to college football and then we'll
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: get out of here because there's no NFL, right, NFL
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: Friday was just that Brazil game at first, and then
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about NFL once it comes up. Yet we
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: don't have any NFL by the way. Tonight, college football
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: The Saturday Breakdown will be tonight, my big college football show,
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: which usually runs like close to two hours, got a
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: lot to break down. I already have probably at least
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: two plays that I know of that I'm gonna have
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: on Saturday in college football. We're gonna talk about it tonight.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna give on any plays tonight, but I
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: mean these matchups were somewhat interesting. I mean, ESPN has
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: given us an ass game here between Tulsa and Oklahoma State.
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: But at least one good thing about this is that
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State is such ass that maybe Tulsa can actually
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: compete against them. And Tulsa is a little brother, remember
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: in the state of Oklahoma, So Tulsa always gets up
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: to face Oklahoma State. And I think Oklahoma State did
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: blow them out last year and kind of embarrassed them,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: So Tulsa might be looking for a little bit of
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: revenge here too. The money is strongly coming in on Tulsa, though,
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: so if you like Tulsa, Oklahoma State's down for fourteen
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: to nine and a half already, you might still be
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: able to get a ten if you wanted Tulsa. That's
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: probably the lowest that I would go on that. I
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: would at plus ten, like don't. I wouldn't want to
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: do it at any single digit number there. I think
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: it would have to be plus ten or better. Get
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: the double digits at least if you want that. The
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: total is somewhat high ish in the mid fifties, so,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: you know, like when I take underdogs, I like taking
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: underdogs with low totals too, because the points mean morall.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: This isn't exactly a high total necessarily either. It's kind
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: of in the middle. But yeah, fifty two percent of
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: tickets around Oklahoma State, fifty nine percent of the cash
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: coming on Tulsa. Again, I agree with the Tulsa side general.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma STATEUM and everybody thinks about them the big name team,
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: they're a big twelve team. Yeah whatever, but they've been
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: so bad recently. Man, I'm shocked that my Gandhy is
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: still there. I know. Gundhy is like a staple there.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: He's been around like forever. Everybody remembers his press conference
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: where they asked him about like his quarterback or something,
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: and he was like, you know, he was like, don't
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: don't ask him about that. You know, he's a kid.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: Ask me. I'm a man. I'm forty. You know, everybody might.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: Everybody probably remembers that because it went viral and then
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: Gundhy had like a mullet after that everything went viral.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: But I'm a man, I'm forty. Actually was seventeen years
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: ago and now I'm a man and I'm forty. It
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: makes me feel so old, man. But I can't believe
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: my Gundhy is still there. With how bad Oklahoma State's
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: been recently, I thought he was probably gone, but I
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: kept thinking, like I'm not. I said it on my
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: show last week. I'm like, I think he's still there,
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: and he is. It's just crazy, man. I don't know, man,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: if they're recruiting, drying up, or what the fuck's going on.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: But of course they're in the Big Twelve, which the
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: Big Twelve got far inferior because some of their better
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: teams of course left for the SEC and whatever. Big
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: twelve is just sitting here as this kind of lame
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: finesse conference. It's not really as good Oklahoma State. They
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: faced the tougher schedule, man, because they faced Oregon last week,
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: and oh boy, did that not go well. They lost
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: sixty nine to three to an Oregon team that while
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: they're good, I don't think they're that good. I mean,
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State is they're bad, man. And yes, this is
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: gonna be their home FBS opener, so they probably should
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: show up for it for that reason, because their first
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: home game was against an FCS Tennessee Martin and they
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: didn't even look good in that game. Really, they only
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: beat them twenty seven to seven. So I don't know, man,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: things are just not good for Oklahoma State right now.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: Tulsa is not great. And what are we gonna get
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: out of Tulsa. I don't know, man. Their only wins
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: so far is against an FCS team Abilene Christian. They
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: lost at New Mexico State and Navy. Though of course
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: Navy sometimes you can't figure them out because they run
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: that triple option. Navy is still the best of the
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: Service academies right now. And again, this is gonna be
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: a game that Tulsa gets up for him. This is
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: their biggest opponent on the entire season, and it's an
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: in state big brother in Oklahoma State. Obviously, if they can,
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: they want to go in and beat Oklahoma State, beat
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: the big brother who's kind of down this year. So
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: I do agree with Tulsa plus the points in that one.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: It's just you've lost a bit of the value. But
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: it would have been a lot better to get two
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: touchdowns on that than the plus ten. But it's not
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: a game I really want to get involved in. Rutgers.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: I will disagree with you on Rutgers. We'll talk about
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: Iowa Rutgers right now. Rutgers to me looks like one
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: of these dreaded public home underdogs, which you don't get
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of that. So to me, those are
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: teams that I think you absolutely want to fade if
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: you're gonna play the game. I considered giving out Iowa
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: as a play. Actually I was. I was looking into it.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: I was like, I kind of want to do it,
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: but I don't only have enough to really adjustify it.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think enough of the factors that I look for.
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: But the market read is really telling me I was
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: the right side here. Sixty six percent of tickets, only
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash on Rutgers. Again, you
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: get a home underdog like this and the public is
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: on that home underdog. That's that's not what you want.
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: The audience makers are telling you what you need to know.
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: Iowa is the better of these two teams. Uh, They're
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: the way better team defensively. I mean, Rutgers recently has
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: been a team that plays solid defense and has like
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: an okay offense, but this year it's been like their
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: offense has been good with Kalia Kamanas who came back
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: this year, and their defense hasn't been that good. In
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: Iowa is the reverse. I mean, Iowa, they're always a
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: great defense under ference, but their offense usually is just pitiful.
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: But their offense looks like it's actually not that bad
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: right now. Iowa does like to run the ball a
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: lot still, but it looks like maybe they maybe have
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: a capable quarterback. I don't know. Kirk Farrence fired his son,
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: so no nepotism there. I think before last year he did.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: Farrence's son was the offensive coordinator, and I think he
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: either fired himber put him in a different role, and
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: maybe put him in a different role, because I don't
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: think you really fired your son, that would just be
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: kind of ridiculous, but something like that, But I would.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: They've put up some decent offensive numbers against very bad
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: opponents though Albany and you Mass, but I was surprised
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: they put up forty seven points against you, mass Man,
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: that's still an FBS team, And I said, I liked
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: U mass to cover the plus thirty five there. I
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: was just thinking, how is Iowa gonna have enough offense
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: to even do that? But they did, so I mean Iowa, yeah,
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: I mean I think that their offense might actually be
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit better this year that people think that
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: it is. And their quarterback, I forget his name, is
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: actually not terrible it is. I know, they still run
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: the ball out and yes they did still have a
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: punt return touchdown in that game for one of their touchdowns.
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: But it is Mark Granowski and not on Kowski, not
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: Gronk gron Mark Gronowski is there is their quarterback. He
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: seems like he's not totally inept out there for Iowa.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: So Iowa actually has a little bit more balance than
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: what you would think, and they played the more difficult
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: schedules so far, because they did play Iowa State in
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: a big robbery game. I know they lost on the road,
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: but it was a really tough you know, it was
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: a slob or knocker. As they say, that's what every
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: game between Iowa and Iowa State is that it's a
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: low scoring, punch you in the mouth defensive game, and yeah,
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: that's what it was. But Iowa played pretty well. They
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: cover the spread there. Yes, I do know they have
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: Indiana up next, but I don't know that they're gonna
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead to Indiana because this is their first
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: Big ten game of the season, so I don't think
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: they're really gonna overlook Rutgers here. They face the more
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule. So I know Rutgers is three and oh,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: which is part of the reason public Oh my god,
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: three and oh team against a two and one team
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: and they're a home underdog. Oh, it looks like there's
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: so much value there. Yeah, but lukuo, Rutgers is face.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: They faced two mac teams. They almost lost to Ohio.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: I know Ohio is one of the better MAC teams,
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: and they brought back you know, Parker and Navarro their
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: quarterback and whatever, so they're not bad. But still there's
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: no way Rutgers should have almost lost that game. Rutgers
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: did have a big lead in that game. I think
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: they just kind of started packing it into early though,
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: and then almost got caught. And then I gave out
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: Rutgers as a play after that in the second game
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: because they got scared. I was thinking they were gonna
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: have a better game the next time out. They did
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: win and cover. They were a win for US against
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: Miami Ohio. But Miami Ohio sucks this year. They had
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of turnover on that team this year they
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: lost like Gabbert, their quarterback not good. And then Rutgers
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: last time out they beat Norfolk State sixty to to
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: him and I understand their offensive numbers look impressive. They
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: put up a ton of offense in these games. Their
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: offense is pretty good, but this is by far the
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: best defense that they're facing this year. It's not even close.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: Iowa really really good defense, and Rutgers has faced no
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: defense is so far. I would say, so yeah. I mean,
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: I think their offense is gonna be slown down quite
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: a bit in this one. It was a little bit
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: of an unfamiliarity thing here where Iowa doesn't play at
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: Rutgers very often because Rutgers is kind of new to
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: the Big Ten. Iowa did play there back in twenty
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: twenty two. I believe it was the last time they
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: played there, though in Iowa did win that game. I
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: think it was like twenty seven to ten or something,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: so maybe the unfamiliarity won't really matter. This game is
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: on Fox. By the way, I'm almost talking myself into
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: playing Iowa here. I mean, I definitely liked the Iowa
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: side here. I know, I got caught like trying to
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: go with you know, when these isolated games, I just
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: start focused on these isolated games. And I know we
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: had a loss on Kansas State last week and it
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: was deserved. I mean, I just I don't know what's
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: going on with Kansas State, and man, the game was
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: close on the scoreboard, but not really statistically. But this game,
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: I do like Iowa. I am considering it, and I see,
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: I think it's still just like the perception is that
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: this Iowa offense is so bad, like how can they
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: cover as a favorite on the road, But you're not
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: asking them to cover by too much and the money's
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: actually coming in in the over. It's a low total
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: of forty six, but fifty six percent tickets on the
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: under sixty two percent of cash on the over, so
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: the over looks like it looks like it's almost like
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: kind of an anti public play with the professional money
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: coming in on it, which might be the case. I mean,
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: Rutgers defense may not be that good this year in
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: Iowa with a more you know, more I guess, capable offense.
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: Let's say, I'm maybe more of somewhat of a more
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: balanced offense might be able to put up some points
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: this time against Rutgers. I do think Rutgers offense might
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: be slown down, but their offense is still good. So
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I could see some arguments for
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: the over just maybe because it's just maybe a total
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: it's just a little bit too low based on the
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: perception of Iowa. But I wouldn't really want to do that.
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: I like the Iowa side. Yeah, you don't like Iowa
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: because Nate, are you the You're the Nebraska fan that
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: we have, right, I'm sorry, I forget who's who at
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: this point. Are you the you're the Nebraska guy? Game swallows? Yeah?
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: Mark Gronowski. Yeah, maybe that's his nickname. I don't know.
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: I'm tempted to give it out. Uh, I guess I won't.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: I guess I'll layoff on that. But I mean digging
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 1: into that a little bit more. I mean the fact
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: that Rutgers struggling against Ohio and they haven't faced any
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: FBS teams yet. But I guess one reason to stay
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: away from Iowa here is that this is Rutgers Big
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: ten home opener, so there is that, and it's on
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: a Friday night. Rutgers, they don't get a ton of
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: games that they host that are on national TV, isolated
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: like this, where everybody's gonna be watching this game, you know,
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: because more people are gonna watch this game than the
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: ESPN game, I would guess, because who wants to watch
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: Tulsa in Oklahoma state. I think people are gonna watch
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: this Big ten matchup more so on Fox. So it
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: is a big game. So I guess I'll stay off
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: of it just because of that. Rutgers. You could see
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: them come out certainly motivated for that reason. It is
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: a big game, a big, big ten game. Neither team
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: is gonna lack motivation here, though, it's just a matter
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: of I just think Iowa is kind of just being
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: overlooked in this game. So that's the way that I
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: look at it. The players today are all in baseball
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles first five inning money line under in Marlin
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: Rangers and Houston Astros money line definitely going against the
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: market reading in that one, But that's the way that
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: I look at those games. Man. I'll be back tonight
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: for the Big College Football weekly show, the Saturday Show.
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: I have at least two plays and I'm gonna give out.
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: I'm almost positive about that. Usually I wound up with
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: about four, so I'm pretty selective with it. But we'll see,
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: and I talk about all the big games basically, and
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't have any monetization. Where are you
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: guys that want me to talk about a game I
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: am not really about to talk about. I will still
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: do that too, so give my thoughts on it at least,
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: So that'll be around midnight tonight as usual. I should
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: be there tonight for it, and then the NFL show
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 1: will be tomorrow night as well. NFL I have probably
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: two games that I kind of like it. I don't
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: love the NFL card this week though. The college football
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 1: players that I have in mind already, I like them
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. Not so much of the NFL. So
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: we will see. I gotta break down the rest of
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: college football. There are games that I haven't looked at yet.
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: So the games that I have in mind right now
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: are games that I've heard other like professionals already talk button.
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: I said, oh yeah, I like this one of them
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: I already had in mind anyway, though, and they confirmed
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: it with me that some of them agree with me
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: on it. So I was like, yeah, absolutely, but we
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 1: will see, but I'll be back tonight, man. So keep
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: on the look up for that tower or as soon
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: as you learned it od oh my god. Learned it
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 1: towed on Twitter, learned it out on Instagram, better off dad, Like,
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here on YouTube, check it out
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: on an audio, Spotify, Apple. I mean, those are monetized,
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: so all people have to do is listen and I
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: can get some money that way because there are ads.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: Gotta listen to the ads. I don't even know what
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: the ads are, but spreaker just throws them in there.
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: Reviews help as well over there give me good reviews.
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: I have a few reviews, so thank you guys for that.
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: Covering you. Because my yuke project that I have on YouTube,
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: I'm planning on starting to do like some live streams
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: of that hopefully soon, so that is something to keep
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 1: in mind as well. And then patreon dot com, slash
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: learned to toad. Maybe I'll do some Patreon streams or something.
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 1: I gotta do a little bit more for the patreons
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: right now, there's a yuke feed that you gotta spotify
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: from it, and then the highest level you get you requests,
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: which I don't think anybody's taking me up on that.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: And I know I've done some requests for non Patreons,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: but I probably gotta cut that out a little bit
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: just to try to incentivise people to do the patron
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: although I can't guarantee that I'll do every request though. Uh.
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: And then the live ones, You're not gonna get a
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: great like I'll do request live on the live show
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: that I'm planning on doing. It's just you're not gonna
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: get like a great you know, one that I sit
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: down and actually record because sometimes I have to do
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: multiple takes whatever. Uh, that one, you're just gonna see
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: me trying to like do it on the fly, which
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 1: is its own thing. But anyway, thanks guys for hanging
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: out this morning. Pete Nate, was it just YouTube there
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: this morning? I think so. But thanks for hanging out guys.
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: I'll be back later. Let's get some wins in baseball here.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: Enjoy the football. And that's gonna do it for now.
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: Peace