Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall systems going clear, we left up what is going on?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Everybody? UFC Fighting night at the Apex. Fourteen fights, decent
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: amount of big favorites, I would say, a very weak
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: mid tier. I'm already jumping ahead giving a broad slid
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: overview though, no time to waste. Let me bring you
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: my man, Big Marley. I was your week last week,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Charles Oimero. That one felt nice to get through, absolutely domination.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: But yeah, we're back this week ready for some fights,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and fourteen fights is always good for me.
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, fourteen fights is good. I think it's gonna be
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: a tough card. A lot of unknowns on this one,
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: a lot of forgettable faces too. Kind of yeah, I
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: don't even remember how last week was. I feel like
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: it was just a crappy card in general. I don't
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: think it was a profitable card for me. Shit, I'm
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: having a hard enough time remembering some of these fights
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: that I researched on Sunday. So I got to this
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: card right now. But I think it's gonna be a
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: good one to go through. I'm looking forward to talking
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: it out with you. I got a couple couple of
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: fighters I'm excited about playing, but I have one five
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: star fight, and I originally had none and I forced
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: that one in there, so maybe you could talk me
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: into another one. Maybe you could talk me into my
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: first zero five star card. But looking forward to talking
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: this one out.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely a tough card in my opinion. I
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: definitely have some takes the mid tier. Like I said
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: my broad say, mid tiers week, let's go, and I'm
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: gonna check your fight rankings or eighty four to seventy
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: eight hundred two star, eighty five seventy seven restar eighty
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: three seventy nine two star, and those are the only
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: three mid tier fights on the cards. So yeah, two
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: two and three, you and I both see it very similar.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: I think it's the Stars and Scrubs slate. I think
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: there are some good fights in the Stars and Scrubs ranged.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: I think there's underdogs in those fights that are expected
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: to finish that if they win that they definitely have
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: ninety plus point upside. So I will try to be
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: avoid avoiding that mid mid tier as much as I can.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Max one and most of my builds would be ideal.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: And then yeah, I'm gonna pick some some lower tier
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: fighters hope to get the right combination up top. I
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: think it's a good card in terms of dfs because
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: it is difficult that way. A lot of similar upper
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: tier and lower tier fighters. I think that have upside,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: but that'll lead to ownership being pretty spread out. And yeah,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I'm always excited. Mine can always be changed. I'm always
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: always open when I talk fights with you. But yeah,
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: who else we got in chat? We got Little Neck Marquee,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: amazing Asian. Good to see all three of you. A
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: lot of people watch on playback as well. Again, all
• 2:59
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• 3:01
  Speaker 2: a ton. Hope your weekend is going or your week
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: your weekend, whenever you're watching, this is going great. Let
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• 3:09
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  Speaker 2: that fits you, whether you do want Sabersim or not.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Discord a very big piece of our community. We would
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: love to have you. Yeah, what's your broad sleep before
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: we go? Fight by fight?
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: Like, I like a clear underdog, like a cheap underdog
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: this week, and then that's gonna help me afford a
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: lot of the favorites that I want to target. But
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: aside from that one underdog, I think it's gonna be
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: a tough week to find dogs that you feel good about.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: But there's a lot of ceiling dogs if they do
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: end up winning. But uh, just it's gonna be a
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: tough card. Maybe we leave salary on the table, but
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: I don't even think we have to get all that
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: different on this card, especially when I have the main
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: event as a four star. It's not even a must
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: have fight to target in DFS, so that makes things
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: even more interesting on a fourteen fight card.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess I'll just tip my hand because it does.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: The main event plays a lot of the role and
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: what I'm doing with other fights I would have as
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: a three star and arguably a two star. I think
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: it's one of the worst, one of the worst main
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: events in terms of DFS. I don't think Vallejos should
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: be the highest price fighter just naturally being a five
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: round favorite, it gravitates to ownership. A lot of other
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: cheaper fighters have better inside the distance props Balos Vallejos
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: isn't wrestling around one prop then a lot of other stuff.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: I think he will be over owned, but a second
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: round knockout might not be enough. M It is tough
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: to I don't like Emmett as well, so I think
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: he's a fade and I will be under wait Valley Host.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: I can leave money from Vallejos sound to pretty much
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: anyone below him. So that's that's kind of my hot
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: take on this card, or what I'm going to be
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: approaching it right there. So Yeah, when we go through
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: and I'm talking about some of these favorites, I'm gonna
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: like a decent amount of them. In the upper tier
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: because I like a lot of them more than Vallejos
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: had ownership just in a vacuum. Well, I said, great
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: to see AFC droping some knowledge in here as well. Yeah,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: I think Mosquite is a lot better. I think a
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: lot of these fighters are. But we'll go fight by
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: fight and try and put all the pieces together. First
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: fight of the night. Oh, also, always look at the
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: line movement. I put this up on Monday. There's been
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: a couple of fights that have had a good amount
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: of line movement, so I'm saying the current lines on
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: fight odds IO. I put these up on Monday. It's
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: the same book bet online. Following the line movement is
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: something I really really think. And then that mma. So yeah,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: so like right now minus one sixty is Pier Rodriguez
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: plus one forty Sam Hughes plus three twenty five for
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish. Rodriguez plus five hundred inside the
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: distance Sam Hughes plus six hundred by far the most
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: likely fight to go the distance open minus four hundred
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: now minus four fifty take it away.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: What are you doing?
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this is a rematch from a couple
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: of years ago, and I really just don't know that
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: a whole lot has changed. I think that if anything
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: has changed, it is Hughes that has improved more so
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: than Rodriguez. But Rodriguez still has solid enough boxing that
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: she can hang on the feet with Hughes if not
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: win it, and then it's her wrestling. I think that's
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: just going to take over and be enough to win
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: the twenty nine to twenty eight score that we're going
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: to see, and it could end up being a split decision.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: But I think with this being in the mid range,
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: I'm somewhat interested because we do have Rodriguez with the
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: wrestling she scored I want to say, like close to
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: ninety last time, ninety two. I'll take thirty two at
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: eighty four eighty four hundred. I just don't know how
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: much success she'll have. What she landed five takedowns that
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: last time, but she has fifteen takedowns in her last
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: two fights combined. So I mean, she's gonna have to
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: wrestle and she's gonna look like a minus one forty
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: five favorite here. So I'm interested a little bit. I
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: might bump this up to a three star. Hughes is
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: a live dog. I don't know what her ceiling looks like,
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: because I don't expect her to wrestle much. She has
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: more so lately and she has improved that part of
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: her game. But I just think Rodriguez is gonna have
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: the wrestling edge in this one, so Hughes should try
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: to keep it standing. And I'm thinking if she wins,
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: she scores mid eighties or so, which was which it
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: would be fine. But I just think there's a lot
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: of other underdogs that if they win, they could score higher.
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: So she's in that same boat with those other those
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: other underdogs. As me, I'm gonna pick Pierre and Rodriguez
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: my pick, and I think she'll get it done with
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: the wrestling.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gross.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Like I said, I don't want to have much exposure
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: in the mid tier, but Pierre Rodriguez is my favorite
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: mid tier fighter. And again that's not say much, but
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: to average four point five to three takedowns per fifteen
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: to rematch from twenty twenty two she scored ninety two.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: I'm taking ninety two all day long in the midsier
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: this week, even at eighty four hundred. Again, Anders Tavares
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: fight not my favorite Smith. You I don't think that's
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: a good fight, so you just don't have much in
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: terms of what's around it. And her last two fights
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: she scored one hundred and two and one hundred and
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: three DraftKings points, seven and eight takedowns. Like you mentioned,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, just showing that type of upside I'm in,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Like she already showed it. Sam Hughes got right back up.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: She won five for eleven, only two minutes of control time,
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: so still scored ninety two points. It's actually good that
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Hughes can continue to get up because Rodriguez, like we
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: saw ra Ruhl Rosas Junior last week. I mean, rob
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: fine gets up right back down. That's what you want
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: in dfs. So yeah, I think Pier Rodriguez is a
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: strong play. And I was going I was kind of
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: wavering on Sam Hughes. Do you think most of her
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: wins score over eighty.
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: More than fifty percent? Yeah, I would say it's like
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: close to that though maybe fifty sixty percent range.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that has to be more interested than
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: I initially had. You like her or you more? Who
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: are just gonna talk about soon?
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: I think they're they're similar. I'll say I like Hughes more.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, it's either a it's an underway take
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: for Hughes, maybe a fate. If I'm only playing five teams,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: I'm probably not getting the Hughes like, because I do
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: think she'll be fighting off takedown's a lot. She has
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: no power, like it seems like you're just point fighting
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: is the way to win. She has good cardio, but
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: it's hard for me to see the upside much plus
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: six hundred. But if I knew she scored eighty, I'd
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: want to be overweight to the field again, seventy eight
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: hundred in the mid tier, like, I'm I'm rolling with
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: that because I do think a lot of big favorites
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: are a lot of favorites score well, and if a
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: lot of just favorites win period and we don't get
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: many dogs, eighty at seventy eight hundred is definitely live.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: So Rodriguez definitely my preferred play. But maybe I'll get
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: a little more hues after're talking with you. We'll see
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: on that again. All of our content is updated throughout.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: If any changes are made, we let this cordin know
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: on Saturday morning, but yeah, everything will be up tomorrow
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: on Friday. All right, back to back mid tier fights.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: This is the second most likely fight to go the distance.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Let me refresh, and Elijah Smith might have just taken
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: some more money. Yeah, Now minus two sixty five is
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: Smith plus two twenty five? Is you plus one seventy
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish Smith plus two thirty inside
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: the distance, you plus six hundred Elijah Smith are passed
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: for me? Is kind of how I'm seeing it again.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: Minus two to oh five with Smith on Monday. Now
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: he's minus two sixty five this fight plus one eighty
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: to finish now plus one seventy, which isn't great, but
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of the finish equity on the Smith side.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: It feels like striker and Smith versus grappler and you
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: and I just think Smith's a lot more dangerous. However, Smith,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: my decision the most likely outcome, and that's not going
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: to score or be optimal at this uh in this one.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: So I don't love the fight, but if have him
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: to choose the side, I'm gonna go with Smith.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: How do you see it?
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I agree, You is gonna need to wrestle in
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: this one. But even when he does wrestle, he doesn't
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: score very many points. He landed five takedowns In his
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: second GOC fight, pretty easy matchup two, he only scored
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: eighty eight eighty eight DraftKings points. I think that he's
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: got a much tougher time wrestling in this matchup than
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: he does in that one. In my opinion, Smith really
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: has him covered everywhere. The wrestling could maybe go either way,
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: but Smith is going to be more powerful, just more athletic,
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: more talented in general. He's also going to be the
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: better striker, much more dangerous on the feet. Cardio, I
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: guess would be the edge that you would have. Maybe
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: Smith could dominate early. I'll be real front row, front loaded,
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: and then slow down and then you will be pretty
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: much the same pace throughout the whole fifteen minutes. But
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: he's not a high paced fighter. He's a slow pace striker.
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: So if it's on the feet, it's he's not going
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: to score much at all. So I'm not too interested
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: in him. I think if he does wrestle and he
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: knocks out you know, five six takedowns in a win
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: and he scores eighty five, I'm gonna be underweight and
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: I'll probably be pissed off, but there's still gonna be
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: a chance after there's twelve more fights, so you still
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: got a shot with a lot of these other underdogs.
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: So I'm for sure gonna be underweight with you know,
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: ten lineups. I'm probably fading with twenty. I might get
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: to him in one or two, and then m and me.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: I'll kind of let Saber sim do his thing out.
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: I would want to limit him to like under twenty percent, though,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: if it was given me more than that.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean for you again, it's jumping ahead
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but it all ties into the same thing.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Seventy seven hundred give me.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I almost might like Chris Curtis more than Vacum,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: and I don't even love Curtis, But for sure, give
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: me Bruno Silva, give me Asplin, give me Hardwick, gimme
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Cute de Lava, all of them. I definitely prefer gimme Lamos,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: like I'm taking all of them over you. All of
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: them are cheaper as well, so I'm leaving the money easily.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: And I like the fighter more in a vacuum, so I.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Won't have much.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: You Smith, He's got power, sell it inside the distance,
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: prop a great money line for his price, so it
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: feels like a possible cash play maybe, but we still
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: need upside. I prefer Pierre Rodriguez, even though she's like
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: a dollar less of a favorite in terms of upside
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: and being optimal on this card. I think Rodriguez has
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: the higher ceiling due to wrestling, where Smith is a
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: safer play. What's up, Nicholas, Great to see you. I
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: hope you're doing well. Glad you're glad you're catching this
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: live again back to back weeks. All right, next fight
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: on the card. Biggest favorites is Meya Mosquita minus eight
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: hundred taking a monstert Redont plus five seventy five.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: This fight is hold on, come on fight.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Odds minus one ninety to finish, Mosquito minus one eighty
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: five inside the distance when don't plus ten fifty so
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: you can see on Monday, minus five to fifty for
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Mosquito and now she's minus eight hundred.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of money she's taken.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: With that being said, I just wrote up this fight
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: a couple hours ago, like literally two hours ago. She
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: was minus two fifteen to finish. Now she's minus one
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: eighty five. This fight was minus two fifty to finish
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: at open. Now it's minus one ninety, so some money
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over Mosquito still great inside the
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: distance prop round one prop I believe is plus one
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: sixty five also good there she's ninety five hundred, like,
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: get easily Mosquito over the lay host in the vacuum
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: for me there. I think you can fit her on
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: this card. But I also think you can easily drop
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: her down to Patrino, Racky Delgado, stuff like that and
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: leave money there. So I'm definitely gonna play something. It's
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: one of those kind of like Dante Johnson. We talk
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: about it a lot. In the upper tier. We like them,
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: but we think fighters can outscore them below. So I'm
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: fine with the wide range of outcomes. If I had
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: twenty percent, Okay, I'm getting different by dropping down a
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: couple hundred to these others and hope they outscore. If
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: I have sixty five percent, sure, she's minus eight hundred
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: minus one eighty five to finish, wants it on the mat,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: and I'm trusting myself to build good lineups that way.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: So I do think she's probably the best. Eh.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Delgado's a monster too. She's definitely one of the best
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: spents on the slate.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: If you have the money. But yeah, no, no Rendon
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: for me too.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I agree with all that. I'm just
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: gonna fade Rendon. I'm fine with Mosquito. It's just if
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: we have the price to pay and we don't want
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: to get up to Vallejos. But I do think she's
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: just gonna dominate this fight on the ground, and if
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: it's an early finish, it's gonna be an early submission
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: or even ground it down from her.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: She's just gonna be really dominant when the fight is
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: on the ground. She's got solid jiu jitsu, and she's
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: looked good in her ROOMMM fight so far. I would
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: worry if this fight does get extended, how she's gonna
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: be looking with her wrestling at that point. So Rendon,
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: her whole game plan should just be digging underhooks, trying
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: to keep this fight on the feet. And she has
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: a strong woman, so I think if she can keep
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: it on standing, maybe she can end up winning the
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: second and third rounds. But even if she does that,
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: she might score fifty points. So she's a complete X out.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: For me is just how what does she do to
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: slow down Mosquito? Uh, So I'm not sure, but I expect.
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get a finish first or second
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: round from the grappler here. That's probably what the UFC
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: wants to see, and that's kind of what I'm hoping.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: But I agree. It's similar to Dante Johnson last week,
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: where if I had twenty percent, I'm cool with that.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: If I have fifty percent, I'm cool with that.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you and I see it the same.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: More than likely.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking of first or second round finish two, but
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: that can be a big difference, or like an immediate
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: takedown and to finish a minute six seconds in for
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: ninety eight like that probably isn't enough on this card,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: but she definitely has more upside than that's biggest favorite.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: I think a very strong play, no doubt about it.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, Hatch your home so minus
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: two forty taking Lawan Laserta plus two oh five minus
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: won sixty for this fight to finish Sosa plus one
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: oh five inside of this since Laserta plus three eighty five, Yeah,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: I'll let you start this one off.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: This one. I'm it's very interesting.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: I could see a path on both sides, and ownership's
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: gonna be in check, but I think more than likely,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: maybe not optimal.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: You have it a three star. This one's tricky for sure,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: but I don't think ownership's gonna be here.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: With that being said, yeah, this is my threes all
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: around on this one. I don't know what I'm gonna
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: do on this one. Leserta is live and more so
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: live to pull off a submission, and he's gonna score
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: well if that happens. He's a dangerous grappler, but I
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: don't know how confident I would feel about him dictating
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: where the fight takes place. He could strike at a
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: decent pace when the fight is on the feet, but
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: I think Sosa is the better striker, and he's much
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: more dangerous with his punching power. But I think Sosa
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: is the better grappler or sorry, the better wrestler too,
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: and he can dictate where the fight takes place. If
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: he does get takedowns, I kind of think he can
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: hang out and top control over Laserta. So I'm picking
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Sosa to win. I just think he has more ways
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: to get it done. But the main worry would be
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: on so if he's looking to strike at eighty nine hundred,
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: I'm not that interested. Maybe that pushes me more to
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Laserta as my preferred play because he is so cheap.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: But I already have another cheap play on this card
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: and a him, So give me Sosa preferred play. But
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: this is closer to a two star than a four star.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I agree, but I do think, like I said, back
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: to the ownership, at the end of the day, it's
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: plus one oh five for Sosa plus three fifty five.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Let me just make sure it's three fifty five and
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: not plus three eighty five for l Serda three plus
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: three eighty five. Okay, But that being said, like I mean,
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: it's clear that Sosa is gonna be relatively low owned
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: because if you go up to Mesquite for one hundred,
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: you get Mosquito way more popular, up two hundred of
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: a lighthouse way more popular, down one to Delgado way
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: more popular. So he's definitely the pivot in that range.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: Still plus one oh five to finish, can wrestle. Not
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: sure he's gonna choose it in this matchup, and he's
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: got hands, so you can definitely paint a Actually I
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: was looking at the other Sosa for pricing.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I'm tweaking there.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: But with that being said, all of them will be
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: higher on and also who else is that oral by
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: right in that range? Patrino one hundred more will definitely
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: be more popular, and See will definitely be more popular too.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: So when we get to that Sosa, I kind of
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: just talked about that one as well.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: They're back to back fights. I was staring at it.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: They're both pivots, both solid finishing props, both going to
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: be relatively low owned.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Both the fights are expected to finish. You can see.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just like pretty much a carbon copy
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: the same inside the distance, relatively similar finishing prop that way.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: With that being said, I do prefer Laserta if having
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: to choose. He's sixteen hundred cheaper and he wants to
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: fight on the mat against a guy making his UFC debut.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: I don't think Lasara is very good, but if he wins,
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: he's gonna give me a score that I'm least alright
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: with at seventy three hundred, where Sosa he can very
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: well win, and many of his wins probably just gonna
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: score mid eighties or.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Something and not be enough.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: So Sosa and more popular lineups, I'm fine with lasaraam
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: my preferred play. I prefer other fights on this card though,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: but at ownership, I think it's definitely live to be optimal,
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: and it's relatively low owned. Mataoos great to see as well. Again,
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: like button subscribe, but helps us out a ton.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: We appreciate it.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, I kind of already tipped
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: my hand on this one. Another Sosa men old Manuel
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Sosa taken on Balaji Oki minus two seventy. Sosa plus
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: two thirty is Oki minus one sixty for this fight
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: to finish. Sosa plus one oh five inside the distance,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: Oki plus four hundred.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: So like I literally said.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Both Sosas have the same plus one oh five inside
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: the distance. With that being said, this guy, this Sosas
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: five hundred more than the last one. So naturally I'm
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: gonna like this, so Celeste. But like I said, he's
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: gonna be a pivot. There's a Valet host, there's Delgado,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: there's Mosquito, like he might be sub twenty percent and
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: he's plus one oh five to finish in a fight
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: expected to finish.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: So a pivot. But yeah, I'll let you take away.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: This is your It pays to be in the discord
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: on Sun Big Marley's saying that he thinks Bolagi Oki
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: at plus two seventy fives value, he got some buy
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: and I think this is the dog you're talking about.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Okie's gonna be my favorite dog of the week,
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: just because I'm not sold on this Sosa guy most
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: most of the film. I saw he was getting beat
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: the whole time. He was losing most of the minutes,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: I would say, and then he knocks the dude out
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: in the third round after the guy's gassed out from
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: beating on him for ten minutes. I feel like there
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: were two fights like that. But this guy, I mean,
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: he's huge, He's got a ton of power, and Oki
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: is hit able, so I understand that it's a dangerous
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: matchup for Oki. Sosa could knock him out in any
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: round for sure, and he does go for submissions as well.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: But he's just he could be taken down so easily,
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: and people can just hang out and top control for
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: for four or five minutes. On this guy, I think
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: if Okie wanted to do that, he can. But Okie
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: also big time power. He was he damned near beat
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: Mason Jones with a quick win bonus in his last fight,
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: and then he gassed out, So it's similar, like he
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: could gas out by trying to kill this guy and
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: then he gets knocked out late. I could see that happening.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: But I still think at plus two fifteen, OKI's the
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: value side. I feel like he should be closer to
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: plus one fifty, So he's my pick for sure. I'm
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: not gonna be playing any SOSA with ten or less lineups,
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: for sure. I would imagine I'm not playing them with
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: even twenty or less. I would need to be like
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: emmmying fifty or more just to get a little bit
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: of exposure to him. But to me, it's just gonna
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: be adding on to my bet with DFS. I'll just
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: throw Ok in a handful of lineups and just not
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: use SOSA and just completely root against that guy. So
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: go Oki. Hope it's the first roun'll finish.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Oki is my preferred side. Again, I
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: saw your message on Sunday. I had an eye on
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: this fight the whole time. Not only are you getting
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: a pretty solid fighter in Oki, the other guy's making
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: his UFC debut. Oki three inch or three inch each
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: advantage one and chide advantage. But look, I mean two
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: point five nine significant strikes per minute, one point oh
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: one takedowns per fifteen. You're getting a well rounded fighter
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: sub seven k, solid money line for his price, solid
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: inside the distance prop for his price, He's sixty eight
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: hundred bucks. I mean, if every favorite one on this
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: card ok, I think would be one of the most
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: live to be optimal in a loss as well, with
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: a lot of finishes or a lot of fights expected
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: to finish, and with his cheap, cheap price day at
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: sixty eight hundred again, I'm not expecting that. I definitely
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: think some dogs are gonna come through, but I'm on
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: your side. I'm definitely going OK again, Sosa a pivot,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: but I prefer the other Sosa who's also a pivot.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Next fight, Mick beck or By taking on Chris Curtis,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: oral by minus three thirty Curtis plus two seventy plus
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: one oh five for this fight to finish, oral by
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: plus one sixty inside the distance Chris Curtis plus five hundred.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: Looking at this one in terms of line movement, oral
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: by on Monday minus two sixty five. Now he's minus
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: three to thirty or bis. Just a DFS mon. You
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: can see on the stone he likes to wrestle. His
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: fo UFC wins have scored one twenty three, one oh seven,
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: one fifteen and one oh six.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Chris Curtis does have good takedown.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: Defense, though, so do you see or By being able
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: to get that many takedowns or how do you see
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: this fight going?
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, have it as a three star because I think
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: it is gonna be tough for him to get. Uh.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, at least a handful of takedowns, maybe get
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: you know, one to three takedowns and try to keep
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: top control time. But Curtis is gonna be hard to
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: hold down too. So I see Curtis as being the
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: better boxer, way higher volume on the feet. He is
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: the better striker. Oral By has power on the feet.
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: He could knock out Curtis, but minute wise, I think
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: Curtis will win the striking and then it's just if
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: the wrestling is there or not. For oral By. He
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: could submit Curtis as well if he's able to get
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: it to the ground. But I don't know. I'm interested
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: to see how he does with the wrestling because I
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: do feel like he's gonna have to shoot multiple times
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: in this fight, especially if he's gonna need to look
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: like a minus two sixty five favored. Do you think
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: that's a little bit wide out side?
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Say what three minus three thirty?
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: Now? So I mean if people are confident in him,
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: that makes me like him a little bit more. But wow, yeah,
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: I don't understand. I mean, I don't understand that line.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: But it's also Curtis just lost to like Max Griffin
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: didn't did look good. Yeah, I think Orlebi is the side.
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: I just don't think it's gonna be as dominant as
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: some of his other wins. He is the side that
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: has one hundred and twenty point ceiling. But I think
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: we're gonna get closer to eighty than we do one
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: hundred and twenty this week, and uh, I'll probably not
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: avoid him, but it'll be more so orle buy or
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: passed and I'll try to get other guys instead, because
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: I like Patrino more for one hundred lists.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I do think Patrina is more popular. I've
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: gone back and forth on this too, because curtis great
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: takedown defense, like the Brendan Allen fight their first fight,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: sub takedowns him with the body and dropped him like
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: all he does is far was Shawn Strickland. With that
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: being said, I like following them a lot, and that's
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: a big minus two sixty five and minus three thirty.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: That's a lot.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: If he looks like a minus three thirty favorite, that
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: means he's gonna get takedowns, which obviously means a lot
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: of upside in terms of dfs. Dogs are barking, sorry
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: if you can hear that, but yeah, dogs of arkain.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: But Chris Curtis side, I'm gonna play some at seventy
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: one hundred, but I think it's I was gonna say
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: ceilings limited because he'sna be fighting off so many takedowns.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: But if Orby just keeps like relentlessly shooting early.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: Hold on, come on, If Orby just keeps shooting a
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: ton in the first round and Curtis keeps stuffing them
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: and Orby gets discouraged or he starts slowing down, Like
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: we know, Curtis has volume, can mix it up to
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: the body.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Well. Orby is really tough, but.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I mean Curtis mixes it up down low, which I
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: like to see a lot to the like you give
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: me the toughest man and have the brick chin. But
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: if you go to the body over and over that
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: can giveaway as well. So Curtis falls down my list
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: for dogs down below because I do like a lot,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: but I can see a path if we get Vinta.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Chris Curtis Stuff's takedowns makes it a striking match, drags
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: him into the deep water. It's like he could get
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: there at seventy one hundred, so I'll have some. Orbi
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: is my preferred play though, because the line movement plus
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: one sixty inside the distance is solid and when he wins,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: like if anyone on this card would do it to
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: do what Robert Rosaus Junior did, I think you're probably
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: looking at Orbi to be the one, even though the
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: matchup looks tough.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: Play at least one Chris Curtis now though, because your
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: dogs are barking.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: I.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Like it. I like it all right.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, boring snoozer Eric Anders minus
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: one twenty seven bread Tavaris plus one oh seven plus
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: one oh five for this fight to finish. Oh hold
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: on not plus one oh five pulled up the wrong
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: one plus one thirty for this fight to finish Anders
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Anders plus three two twenty five inside the distance Tavars
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: plus two sixty five. So let me get this right quick.
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: On Monday, Tavars minus one thirty five favorite. Now the
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: line almost completely flipped. Anders is the favorite while being
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: four hundred cheaper. This fight on Monday was plus one
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: fifteen to finish. Now it's plus one thirty. Still, the
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: underdog in Tavares has the better inside the distance prop
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: at plus two sixty five versus plus three twenty five.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: You see, like Anders one point seventy five takedowns per fifteen,
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: both guys low volume. Tavars is known for good takedown defense.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: I think we're looking at a boring striking match at
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: distance that's gonna go the distance that is not gonna score.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: With that being said, I don't know, to be honest
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: right now, maybe Tavaris is my preferred play in GPPs
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: because people are gonna see Anders the favorite at seventy
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: nine hundred and just click that button. But we know
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: we need upside. When we're talking mid tier, we're talking
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: the flagship and stuff like that. Tavars, I mean's more
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: likely to finish in this fight. You actually get leverage
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: off of Anders. But with that being said, this I
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: don't want this fight to be optimal more than likely.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: I don't want to play too much of it. How
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: do you see it?
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: No, I mean, really a one star for me, I
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: highly doubt I play this fight. Anders is my preferred play.
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: I'm picking him to win. I just think it's a
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: fifty to fifty fight where it is going to be
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: slow paced back and forth. The volume is gonna be
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: close but slow, and we probably don't get a single
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: takedown from either side, and then we're gonna get a
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: split decision at the end of it. The only reason
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: to play this fight is for the knockout equity on
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: either side. It is right there in the mid range.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: So if there's a first round knockout, there's a good
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: chance they're on the optimal lineup. So that's what you're fading,
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: is the first round knockout. I think even a second
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: round knockout, they're gonna be hard press to at least
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: be a lock on the optimal lineup. So I'm just
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: gonna fade this fight completely with my twenty or less.
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: I would have to be making more than twenty and
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: just emmmying and for me to get to this fight,
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: but I will not be playing both sides of it.
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: So I will x out Tavares and make it Anders
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: are passed, but ideally I'm passing and Anders wins a
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: split decision and scores fifty three points.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would love that.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, these are two guys I don't like clicking
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: much in DFS at all. Now you match them up together,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: the overs taking money Again, With that all being said,
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: the mid tier is weak and now Tavares plus two
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: sixty five isn't bad. And Andrews I think will be
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: over owned due to his money line being the favorite
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: at seventy nine hundred. So earlier in the week I
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: said give me Anders at dog money four hundred savings
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: easy again now that I think ownership could be like
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: twenty seven Anders thirteen Tavars or something. We're talking about
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: a different game with the better inside the distance prop.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: But regardless, I don't want this fight. Yeah, slow and boarding.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: Like Nicholas said, Ray, very nice of you. Appreciate you
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: hanging out. It's great insight. That is very nice of you.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: Just if you're just popping in again the like button
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: side a ton subscribe button as well. Next fight on
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: the card, I'm a this is a solid real life fight.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: Interested for DFS to hear your take. Charles Johnson minus
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: won sixty, Bruno Silva plus one forty plus one ten
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish, Charles Johnson plus two sixty
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: five inside the distance, Bruno Silva plus two seventy. Some
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: money on the Bruno Silva side, and quite a bit
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: of it. Johnson open minus two five now minus won sixty.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: I was on the silver side earlier. I thought the
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: line was disrespectful. Unfortunately the line is going that way
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: because that'll make Silva more popular still, maybe relatively in check,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: but I mean, yeah, twelve hundred savings pretty much the
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: same inside the distance prop gimme Silva as my preferred
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: play in this one.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: It looks like you see it the same.
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I do. I think it's a close fight where
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: it's just closer to a fifty to fifty fight, and
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: I went with the underdog for that reason. Johnson is
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: coming back a little bit early from a TKO loss,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: but both of these guys do score well when they win.
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: I like that about him. Silva has power on the feet.
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: I think he could win minutes as well, especially early
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: because Johnson is a late starter. But I think Silva's
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: biggest edge in this fight would be his wrestling and grappling.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: He doesn't do it as much as I would like
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: him to, but I think this is the matchup where
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: he should at least mix it in a little bit.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: And then Johnson would I think the longer this fight
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: goes and it stays on the feet, then it would
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: help him. So maybe second in the third round he
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: wins the striking strikes at a high pace, he could
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: put up ninety points or so. So I'm interested. But
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: that is my issue. Is I have it as a
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: three star for that reason. If Bruno wins the first
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: half of the fight and then Johnson wins the second
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: half of the fight, do we get a big score
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: from either one of them, I don't really know. So
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: right now it's a three star, but I'm leaning closer
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: to a four star than a two star on this one.
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: I like both sides of it. Preferred play is going
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: to be Silva because he's the underdog, but it looks
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: like the fields to like that as well, so I
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: don't really hate Johnson as a contrarian favorite play.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Johnson's definitely gonna be contrarian. Plus two
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: sixty five inside the distance not terrible, not great for
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: the price, but not terrible. The problem is with him,
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: like his run one prop plus six twenty five, it's
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: really like when he wins, it's usually he has the
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: cardio advantage. Silver will slow down, but then he can
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: put numbers on Silva and get a late finish like
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: that's live and if he does that, it definitely will score.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: But at eighty seven hundred, you're in a pretty strong
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: tier when you go just a couple hundred more to
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: some of these guys that have pretty safe, big big
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: boy upside. I like Jillian Robertson for less. I like
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: plenty of other ones for more, and chalk your lineups.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with Johnson. The more the line closes, the
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: more higher own Silva is, which then the more appeal
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: Johnson is for me because more leverage off of them.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: But I still prefer Silva, even expecting him to be
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: higher owned to give me Silva as the dog. We
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: play a salary base game and we need some dogs
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: down here, and silas definitely one I have interest in.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: We'll keep it rolling next fight on the card.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: This is where, in my opinion, that we start getting
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: into the best fights like I'm gonna I'm gonna be
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: overweight these next couple of fights and hope we see
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: multiple on the winner this one Vitor Patrino minus two
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: thirty seven Stephen Asplin plus two h two minus two
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: fifty for this fight to finish, Patrino minus won fifteen
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: inside the distance Asplain plus three twenty five. Patrino can strike,
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: so I don't want to take it away from him,
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: but I'm looking at this as kind of clash the styles.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: Patrino gonna go out there and try and wrestle, Aspen,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: gonna try and stuff takedowns, keep it on the feet.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: I mean a shout out to Asplin.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Awesome on the mic, his last performance was amazing, volume
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: for days.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Kind of surprised that.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: USC He's throwing them as a guy like Patrino and
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: putting him as a big dog.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I thought they kind of wanted to build him up again.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: He crushed it on the mic.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: Was way overweight back in the day, has lost a
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: ton of weights. A good story that way, and again
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: he's fought in the UFC, but as Dana White Contender Series.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: In UFC fight it says nineteen point nine significant strikes
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: per minute because of his fight last time. That's misleading,
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: so I didn't put it there. But it's not his debut.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: I want to mention take it away Patrino and Asplin.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Patrino for sure in this one, but
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be an important one to target
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: because Asplin had like one hundred and thirty plus draftings
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: points in that last fight because he landed so many
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: strikes throughout just two rounds. It's like one hundred and
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: seventy significant strikes and two rounds, which is I mean,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: which is out of Patrino's league. Patrino can't do that,
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: but Patrino is the more skilled striker. He's got the
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: more power in his hands for sure. I mean, he
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: also couldn't land one hundred and seventy strikes because his
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: opponent would fall down before he landed hundred and seventy strikes.
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: Asplin did not have a whole lot of power behind
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: his strikes. And he also puts his chin up a
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: lot when he's throwing his hands. I like that he
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: throws a lot of elbows when he gets in close.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: I mean I could see him cutting out Patrino or something,
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: maybe getting a stoppage that way, but I think he's
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: gonna get knocked out with one of those, with one
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: of those chin up punches, because Patrino hits a lot
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: harder than this guy. And as you mentioned, Patrino's gonna
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: be the wrestler as well. If either one of these
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: guys is looking to wrestle, I think it would be Patrino.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: I just don't know that he's gonna be that worried
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: about the power coming at him for mask, and I
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: think he's gonna be head hunting in this one. I'm
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: gonna pick him to get the knockout. I like him
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: either way, knockout or wrestling. My issue would be that
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: we don't get a first round or a second round knockout,
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: and he's just not gonna have much volume behind him.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: And then the longer this fight goes and it stays standing,
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: Patrino just won't score that many points. He he had
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: two knockdowns in his last fight, and I want to
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: say he had eighty something DraftKings points, which which isn't
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: my favorite thing to see. I would like to see
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: over one hundred points if you're getting two knockdowns along
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: the way. But this is my favorite fight on the
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: card to target it. Petrino definite overweight play for me,
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: and I'd imagine I'm around the field and ask when
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: just so I don't get completely burned if he does win,
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: because he'll score if he does win.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: They'll definitely score if he does win. So you don't
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: think Petrino's gonna come out with like a wrestling game plan. Obviously,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's shooting a takedown like Jelton. I'll
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: made in the first ten seconds.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: But I kind of say a couple one where it's
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: like you eat three strikes to give your big one.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Okay, I mean if when you say it like that,
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: if I knew that'd be the case, I Patrino would
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: would fall down the list for me in terms of spends,
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: because I do think he's gonna be very popular, and
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: I just I mean, give me the I don't you
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: always say you don't want to rely on guys knocking
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: someone out like Asplin's not good off his back. It
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: seems like he's a big guy. Once he's on his back,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: he'll struggle to get up. It feels so easy just
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: for him to go and shoot a double leg or
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: like mixing high and go low, like.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: Maybe if the knockout's not there, then we start shooting.
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: I think original game plan. Let's try and take this.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: Guy set off dang all right. If that's the case,
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: Aspen's my preferred side. Again, part of that is just
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: because there's a lot of higher there's a lot of
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: great upside fighters in the in the higher tier, whereas
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: the lower tier has some, but it's harder to come by.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: If Aspen wins and scores eighty eight, I would take
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: that over if Patrino scores one hundred in a win. Again,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: one hundred definitely could be enough, but I would eighty
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: eight is more likely in the lower tier to get there.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Let's check Patrino in round one real quick plus two
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: to sixty, which is solid plus two seventy five at open.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: Not the best on the card, definitely not the worst.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: A solid fight to target though. Again, these next couple
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: of fights I definitely have interest in for DFS and
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: hope multiple are optimal. If Anthony Smith can finish Patrino,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: yeah absolutely, Anthony Smith, Aspen.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Your favorite dog, all right, let's keep it rolling.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, Marwin Rocky plus I definitely
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: butchered the name. But Rahiki Rahiki, right, yeah, Reiky Reiki
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: minus two sixty taking Harry Hardwick plus two twenty Rihiki
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: actually minus two sixty, Rihiki plus two twenty Hardwak minus
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: two hundred for this fight to finish, Rihiki minus one
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: oh five inside the distance Hardwick plus three thirty five.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I'll let you take it away because I had it
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: a little higher than the three star at least if
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: I had to do it.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: So what gives you some hesitancy in this one?
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: I guess yeah, maybe i'd say four star. I kind
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: of ran through that quick. I'm moving into a four
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: star now, but it's it's just more so. I don't
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: really believe in either of these guys, but I think
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: it probably will be a wild fight that Rahiki Contender
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: series fight. There were four knockdowns in there. I don't
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: think Hardwick has that same style though. Hardwick is more
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: of a pressure Cardio type of guy, where he's like
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: a Diz brother. He's gonna try and throw volume and
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: not give you a break. And the longer this goes,
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: I think it will play into Hardwick's favor. But Rahiki
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: is there the much more wild much more aggressive fighter,
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: the more dangerous striker as well. I think he's got
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: more tools in his striking toolbox. And I also think
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: Hardwick was probably exposed in his last fight, Like it
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: was a minute into the fight and this guy was
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: already done with lake kicks. Yeah, so I think it
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: would be really smart for Hiki to go out there
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: to start throwing late kicks early. And if that's the case,
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: the longer this fight goes, maybe it won't be Hardwick's favor,
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: But either way, I think we do have a good
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: chance at a score from either side. I just don't
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: expect what we saw from Contender series to happen. I
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: also don't expect Hardwick just get finished in the first
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: two minutes of the fight like he did in his
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: last fight. I think it'll be a lot slower paced
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: than both of those fights. So maybe closer to a
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: three star than a five star, but I think four stars, right.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: The reason I had more than a three like this
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: Rihiki dude twenty three years old, seven and zero making
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: his UFC debut. Again, the sample's kind of small, but
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: this due just looks like a wild man. And again
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: that last fight, like I think he's gonna come out
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: guns blazing and just put it on Hardwicic and make
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: Hardwick fight and at seven k if any favorites in
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: your face like that and making you do something, if
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: you win, you're forced to You're forced to land something,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: You're forced to fight. And that's why his inside the
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: distance prop has been going the right way. It opened
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: plus three eighty five now plus three thirty five. He
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: looked terrible last fight, light kicks all that. But if
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: he wins, I mean, I think it's a good chance
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: it to finish because I think Rahiki is gonna be
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: in his face, and if Hardwick is gun shy and
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: just lost, Rahiki I think has a lot of ways
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: to put it on him as well, by finish or
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: by a ko Rahek plus one thirty five Hardwicke by
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: Ko plus five twenty five Rihiki by saw but plus
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: six fifty, which opened plus eight hundred Hardwick plus eleven hundred.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: I think maybe Rihiki can mix it takedown or something,
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: but I think it's mainly on the feet. I think
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a high paced fight and it's minus
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: two hundred to finish, which is good. So again just
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: like that last fight, just like this next fight. I'm
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: gonna be hoping these fights are optimal later in the car.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: Less exposure early, more exposure late for me. And I
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: don't even know if I have a preferred side. Actually,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: when it's all said and done, I'd love to be
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: overweight on both and feel pretty good about it. Did
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: toe tab we get a refund? Morikawa? No refunds? Yeah,
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: there's no, there's no refunds. He teed off DraftKings is
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: not not going to get refunds, all right, next fight
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: on the car. Very unfortunate situation, though a lot of
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: more cow over here can't do anything.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: When he pulls his back after one hole when he
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: goes out there, there's there's no scene in the future.
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and he was in there.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I figured. I mean, it's it's rough.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: I got a lot of more kaw too, but hey,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: it's part of the game we play. If you followed MMA,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: if you're in the MMA streets, you guys is probably
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: no you've seen some Macy Barber doesn't even walk out.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: This guy has a stroke or like a seizure, like
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: this guy won every fight or so.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Hudo gets kicked in the nuts and it's over. Dumascus
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: kicked in the nuts. Whatever it is. Yeah, more college situation.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Very unfortunate for sure though, especially because Naple last week.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we could go on and on. This is an
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: MMA show, though four fights left an absolute banger. Jose
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Delgatto minus four hundred Andre Pheeley plus three thirty minus
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: two fifty for this fight to finish. Delgatto minus one
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: seventy inside the distance Phelly plus five twenty five. Anytime
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: you see the name Jose Delgado, he's gonna have a
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: green tag next to his name. More than likely all gas,
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: no breaks, as you can see, eight point two to
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: two significant strikes per minute, one point eight one takedowns
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: finish all ten of his fights. I mean, the dude's
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: just good at the end of the day, and he
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: is aggressive. So you have zero starts for Andre phel
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: I'll let you talk about why, but let me just
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: throw to you on this. If Philly wins like that,
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: does he score? How does he win like running around
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: the cage out pointing him or is he just going
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: to catch Delgatto?
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: Well, I just really don't see him winning. I actually
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: bet against del Gatto in his last fight. I picked
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, and I think that would
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: have to be the same type of style Pheely would
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: have to take where he passed to Weather in early
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: storm come back and win the second and the third.
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: But I think that del Gotta learned that lesson already
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: and he's not gonna lose it twice. So I'm on
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: the del Gatto side of this one. I think early
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: it's going to be all del Gatto, especially on the feet,
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: but he could also hurt Peely and then submit him
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: on the ground. The wrestling the longer this fight goes
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: could shift into the Phey side. But I mean, if
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: he wins, I think Phelly could score well. I'm just
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'm willing to go there when I'm
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: going to Oki instead for a hundred cheaper. Maybe if
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: there's a line I don't know, maybe I'll get to
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: some feeling, but I feel like with limited lineups, there's
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: other people I want to get to instead, especially when
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: I'm really confident in del Gatto in this matchup, I'm
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: picking him to get an early finish. I think that
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: even if it does go the distance, he'll do enough
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: to get his hand raised this time. But if it
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: goes the distance, maybe Phely wins a third round and
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: then he takes away a lot of points that del
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: Gatto could have scored. But yeah, I would think for
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: del Gatto to score one hundred and ten points it
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: has to be a first or a second round finish.
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: He's not really a high volume wrestler where he's gonna
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: score great in the decision in my opinion.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think del Gotta is one of
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: the best plays on the slate. I think ownership will
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: reflect that he's taking money minus three forty on Monday
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: now minus four hundred. But why I want feeling it's
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: kind of like I said, he's del Gotto's just so
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: all gassed, no brakes type of guy where he's gonna
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: force Phelly to fight. Kind of like I said, with
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: the Hardwick stuff, you do get a talented fighter. I
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: feel he's been around UFC VET, He's fought everybody, So
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: maybe Delgado gets a little over aggressive and he catches
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: him that way. It mainly comes down to just s
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: Doug got on one of the most popular fighters on
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: the slate. Pheely gonna be very low owned this fight's
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: expected to finish twenty three point three percent. Is the
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: win equity for Philly at plus three thirty. I think
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: he's going to be a lot lower than that, and
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: I think Delgatta will be a lot higher on So
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: kind of like what Checho's saying, MMA is dice. I mean,
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: it's a lot of guests work, it's a lot of
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: variance and volatility.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: But when you win, how much do you win?
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: And that's why I think this sport more than almost
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: any Like the best people in the world might not
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: know anything about MMA, having some I know MMA fights
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: checks out, but roster construction where you find leverage, how
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: much you win when you win the dupe count.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: It's a game theory sport more than anything. So yeah,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of variants and volatility in the fights.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: Not only does your guy have to win, the judges
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: have to get it right, they have to score enough
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: in their reigne blah blah blah. But roster construction, when
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: you win, how much let you win? Putting stuff together,
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: whether some teams are too chalky, summarn't enough this and
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: that is where the big edge comes out in MMA.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I think Philly will be very under own,
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: not very under own. I think he'll be under ownd though,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: mainly for the leverage off of delgado ownership and because
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: Delgado pushes the pace forcing Philly to fight. Is how
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: I see this going down? All right, three fights left,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: Umar Sai taking that Eon Cutalaba minus two seventy five
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: C minus two seventy five is CE plus two thirty
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: five is Qutalaba minus two hundred for this fight to
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: finish see minus one ten inside the distance Qutalaba plus
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: three fifty five. Usually when I see the name eonqut Talaba,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: I want a lot of exposure to.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: The fight in DFS.
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: The dude is he's a wild man too, uh four
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: point two six ineficns strikes per minute, three point seven
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: to seven takedowns per fifteen minutes. I'm not sure he's
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: gonna wrestle in this one or try much though, because
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: I think sees the better wrestler.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Do you agree with that take? And how do you
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: see this fight going?
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I think really sees probably better everywhere, maybe not
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: first round aggression q Laba. He is a wild man,
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: like you said, and he's got a lot of strength,
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: a lot of knockout power, but I also feel like
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: he hasn't fought with that same aggression lately, and it's
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: almost like he's more afraid to get hit than he
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: used to be. Yeah, so I could see either one
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: of these guys getting a first round knockout. The longer
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: the fight goes, though, the slower the volume is going
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: to be on both sides. So I think that wrestling
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: would be important for c to score well, and he
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: is going to have the wrestling edge in every round
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: in this fight. I think it would be smarter him
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: to use it. He's really got nothing to worry about
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: with q Lob off his back, so that's his safest
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: game plan. I'm on the Sea side for sure, but
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: if q Laba wins, he's similar to an Aspalind where
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: I feel good about him scoring well at seventy four
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars, So I want to be at least around
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: the field on q Laba if not overweight. But see
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: is my play. I'm sure I'll be able to wait
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: to him.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: I like see plus two to fifteen round one open
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: plus two seventy five like for instance, and we're gonna
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: talk about this valet Host fight in a sec. But
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: he's plus three seventy five in round one Vallejos with
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: no wrestling upside. So I like, I give me seeover
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: Vallejos in a vacuum for eight hundred in terms of upside.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Give me RICKI give me Delgado, give me Patrino. Like,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: that's kind of why I'm talking. We're gonna get to Valleos.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: I'm tipping my hand. But as the most expensive fighter
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: with five rounds, he's naturally gonna get a good amount
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: of ownership. And I definitely prefer a lot of these
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: other fighters that we're talking about for cheaper.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So that's how I see it right there.
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: But two fights left Comaine event time a rebooking from
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: like December thirteenth. The last card of a yeah, supposed
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: to be the last card of last year out was
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: Amanda laimos On on Saturday on fight day.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: So now we get a rebooking.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: Now, Gillian Robertson my minus or a two hundred taken
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: on the man of Lamos plus one seventy. Let's see
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: this fight is plus one twenty to finish. Robertson plus
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: one eighty inside the distance, Lamos plus five hundred. So
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: looking at this one on again twelve thirteen, Lamos was
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: out for medical reasons. What I found very interesting in
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: this fight was, let's see, it was minus I gotta
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: make sure I get this rights minus one fifty five
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: was this fight to finish on that Saturday? Now it's
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: plus one twenty. All that tells me is I mean
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: people had inside info about the Lamas side and was
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: just hammering the under because there's by no means like,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: why would that fight have been minus won fifty five
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: to finish then and now plus one twenty to finish today?
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Like do you have any take on that stuff?
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, the odds are pretty similar to that fight
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: and all that, but plus one twenty to finish versus
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty five. I mean that's night and day
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: in terms of how much I love the fight. I'm
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: still playing with robertson the grappler, Lamo is the striker.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: But I mean that's almost just telling me there's inside
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: info people have that. Yeah, Lamosis medically not doing well,
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: this fight's more than likely to finish and yeah, so
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: any thoughts on that?
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: And then what about this fight?
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah? No, I mean I didn't even think about that.
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: I didn't know it was that big of a difference,
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: But I mean, really, it makes me like the Lameos
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: side less. How's the Lamos gonna score well? If this
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: fight does go the distance, I think it's if it's
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: if Lameos wins, it's gonna be a knockout because Robertson
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: can't stand with her. I think she would just destroy
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: her and it would be a knockout at some point.
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: But it could also be completely one sided on the ground,
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: where Robertson can get takedowns and that's that's a wrap
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: for the round or for the fight. On the Lameo side,
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: Robertson's live for submission in any round, and she's also
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: live for like a thirty twenty five type of win
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: if she wants to have like thirteen minutes of ground
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: control time in this fight. So I'm to be heavy
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: on the Robertson side. I think that she is almost
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: always the side I'm always heavy on her in DraftKings
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: because of her style. She almost in every single matchup
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: is gonna need to wrestle and grapple, but in this
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: one more so than all the others, because this is
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: real danger on the feet and you don't want to
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: toy around with Lamos, So shoot early and often. If
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: it doesn't work, you keep shooting, and eventually I think
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: she'll get it, and I'm picking her to get a submission.
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: So maybe the the minus one fifty five as the
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: side I prefer.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm on Robertson too.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: In the set for DFS, her wins from twenty seventeen
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: till now one oh seven, one hundred, one O two,
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: one oh five, one oh five, ninety eight, one sixteen,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: ninety four, ninety two, one ten, one oh six, ninety six,
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: ninety seven. I mean, that's that's really really good. And
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Lamo's like you, Saiven, she hits like a man at
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: the end of the day. She's got some real power,
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: which kind of did surprise me seeing her only plus
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: five hundred or inide the distance.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: I think she's a.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: Little more alive, especially early, like Robertson's gonna shoot in
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: that uppercut.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: If she lands, she definitely has power.
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: But the problem is it's almost like round one or bust,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: it feels because once Robertson gets on top, Lamos probably
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: isn't getting up.
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: Then she's more tired, then she's more compromise. And it's
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: just a snowball effect after that. So yeah, like if
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: I had to bet Lamos, I'd probably just bet round one.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: I'll play some in dfs, mainly due to the lack
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: of mid tier ish value that I love plus one
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: seventy to win, but Robertson is my preferred side.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: That is for sure.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: Main event time before again we do go to the
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: main event. Just want to show if you do want
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: to join us at the Nation again. All of our
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: MMA content is blow projections, ownership core reports, for cash
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: for fan duel, Big Marley and I the Stone. What
• 53:49
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• 53:52
  Speaker 2: these tags. Everything is filled in the weigh ins. This
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: is all on Friday when everything is up. Tier rankings
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: breaks down each here Slate plan, my Cell fight rankings
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: with Big Marley. Also an education video More Education MMA.
• 54:06
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• 54:08
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• 54:11
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• 54:16
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• 54:27
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• 54:31
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• 54:33
  Speaker 2: I'll check the annual out because it is the best
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: bang for your buck, best fight of the night's main events,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: biggest favorite or big highest price second biggest favorite. Kevin
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: Valay hosts minus five fifty, Josh Emmett plus four hundred
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: minus two hundred for this fight to finish ballet host
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: minus one sixty five inside the distance Emmett plus five
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: fifty Pallet Host in round one plus three seventy five.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: I already tip my hand multiple times. I will be
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: way underweight this fight. No, Josh Emmett's very little. Kevin
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: Valley host I think he's over owned due to him
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: being the main event favorite and he's just a striker.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Emmittt's tough.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: The fight's supposed to go over two and a half.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: Let's see over two and a half is over three
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: and a half? Is minus one twenty one? Like, I mean,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: Elliott Taporia put a beating and all that on Josh Emmett,
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: But like how much volume is is Bleos really going
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: to land if he's going to get there in like
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: a five round decision or something.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: At ninety six.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: Hundred, I just think there's way better options that are cheaper,
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: that are lower owned.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: For the most part.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's if I had a rate a main event
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: like all year, this would probably be one. Like for
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: interest in dfs, this very well might be my least
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: interest I've had in any main event for a very
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: very long time, because I think emmet gets waxed and
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: ninety six hundred Vallejos, I don't think it's really good,
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I won't have much of this. I hope
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I'm at the top of the leader boards when it
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: comes into the main event, which you can't always say that,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: what do you see?
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I moved it down to a three
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: star at the start of the pod when you said that,
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: I think it makes a lot of sense. I put
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: it as a four star because usually that means more
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: of a main event fade for me, But ninety six
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: hundred usually I think over ninety five hundred is a
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: little bit too expensive and I start thinking about fading
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: just because of the price. But this should be a
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: full on striking match for as long as it takes place.
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: And I do think we are probably needing a first
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: round knockout from Vallejos, so maybe I cap it at
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: his first round finish odd three seventy three seventy five.
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: So it's like.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: Half half as half his ownership probably unless people.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: We've had a lot of good viewership and by no
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: means to we move any markets.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe people are seeing the same thing, but I don't know.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: I guess I wouldn't be shot if the market comes
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: in a little heavy on Vallejos ownership when it's all said.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: And done, maybe he's mid thirties. Even that, I don't
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: love it.
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, just with his high line, him being
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: the main event, I think he will naturally get a
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: bunch of ownership. But I moved it down a little
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: bit already from what I had it at like an
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: hour ago. I'll probably move it down a little bit again,
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: but it's gonna be Vallejos or passed for me. But
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: I do prefer, Yeah, maybe like a twenty twenty five
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: percent ownership in him, and then you're hoping that he's
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: not on it, and then you do get forty five
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: percent of the field on him that's killed off because
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: there's so many people I like below him that could
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: definitely outscore him. I mean, just Gillian Robertson for one
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars less. Yeah, I like more, and I'm definitely
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: gonna have more exposure to Robertson. But yeah, I think
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: it makes a ton of sense. I don't know that
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: I can go all the way down to a two
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: star on a main event, but yeah, if I if
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: I was gonna, I think this is one to do it.
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: The last time I did that would have been like
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: a Holly Olm main event. But there's too much power
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: in this fight for me to go two star. Inmate
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: is even live to get a first round knockout. I
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: have him as a one star because I won't have
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: enough lineups to get to him if I was im,
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm definitely playing some inmate because he's got
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: that power. But I expect this to be a pretty
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: much one sided fight, especially minute wise until that knockout
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: takes place. But give me the layhouse to get a
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: not first round knockout and yeah, not be on the
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: optimal line. If I like that, let's fade that fight.
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's definitely my stance. My stance is way under
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: main events, way under on the mid tier, and then
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: from there, I'm just hoping I'm getting the I mean,
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: you'll be able to see on the sleigh plane and
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: like we said, it's it's kind of clear the fights
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: that I like, the fights I don't like as much,
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: and I'll be hoping the fights I.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Like are on the optimal for the most part.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Any final thoughts from me, Big Marley always fun talking
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: some fights, and that meta Apex way way better than
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: the Apex prior. It seems a little more lively in there.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: There's more people in there. Yeah, I mean, I like
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: real fans and live fans.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: A little more than the APEX.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: But I at least it's a better environment than it
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: was in my opinion, Like instead of fighting in a warehouse,
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: an empty warehouse, now you get you get a little
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: more pizzazz in there.
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it would have been cool to go
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: to like a warehouse, just be one of them. Yeah,
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: in there, I guess, but I never went to it.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think that with it being in the APEX,
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: it is going to be smaller cage that usually leads
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: to more violence or at least more action like a
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: lame most Robertson, They're gonna have to connect at some point.
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: I think that that always helps for DFS at being
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: in the smaller cage, So looking forward to it. I
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: think this is a good card for DFS. I'm not
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: sure how many lineups I'll play if I if it's
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: like one, then I'll be in that five five five.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: But I've also thought about him and being this card,
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: so I'm not sure what I'm gonna end up doing,
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: but looking forward to it. Good luck to you title,
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: good luck to everybody listening.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: Let's ship it awesome stuff. Big Marley always love talking
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: fights with you.
• 59:55
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• 59:57
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  Speaker 2: Big Marley, I'm titled town. Have a great weekend, Be safe,
• 1:00:14
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