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How Much AI Is Too Much for Investors? · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange. It's Mike,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Paul and Tucker with you here on a Tuesday where
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: we've got a Joltz report out this morning at ten
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: am Friday. This coming Friday, we will have a full
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: month of May jobs report out measuring the unemployment rate
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  Speaker 2: and job gains or losses for the month of May.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: Will have a weekly.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Jobless claims report, so heavy jobs week here on the
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  Speaker 2: Financial Exchange. Obviously, all eyes on the Middle East awaiting
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: something in terms of good news when it comes to
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: traffic through the strait of horror moves. Don't have any
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  Speaker 2: for you right now. Although the President indicating that talks
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  Speaker 2: have not completely broken down with Iran, there were statements
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  Speaker 2: from Irani and state media yesterday that talks were called off.
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  Speaker 2: There were strikes obviously between the US and Iran over
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  Speaker 2: the weekend, So more to come there. Oil markets not
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  Speaker 2: responding in any meaningful way today. You've got the price
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  Speaker 2: of a barrel of oil down by fifteen cents on
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  Speaker 2: the West Texas CREUD benchmark to ninety two dollars per barrel.
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  Speaker 3: In terms of.
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  Speaker 2: Gas prices, you have seen them come down as of lay,
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  Speaker 2: we're sitting at four twenty nine per gallon on the
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  Speaker 2: national average, and all of that has meant interest rates
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  Speaker 2: coming in a little bit as well.
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  Speaker 3: The average rate.
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  Speaker 2: On a thirty year fixed rate mortgage now coming in
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  Speaker 2: at six point six percent. That's down from a recent
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  Speaker 2: high of is it's six seven five or six eight five.
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  Speaker 3: I can't remember.
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  Speaker 2: I thought it was six seven it was up there
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  Speaker 2: most recently. Stocks today about flat. We've got all major
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  Speaker 2: indices up about one fifth to one quarter of one percent.
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  Speaker 2: So we will see how things continue here in trading.
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  Speaker 2: But the main I mean the main indicators that I
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  Speaker 2: can see in the short term four markets are this
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  Speaker 2: job's reported and what it could mean for inates anything
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  Speaker 2: out of the Middle East. As we continue to get
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  Speaker 2: warnings from oil executives that we are reaching critically low
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  Speaker 2: levels of reserves here in the United States, there was
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  Speaker 2: that statement from the.
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  Speaker 3: Exxon Mobile executive.
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  Speaker 2: I think it was two weeks ago now, Tucker, if
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  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, but his statement was more or less
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  Speaker 2: that we are weeks away from critically low levels of
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  Speaker 2: oil inventories here in the United States, at which point
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  Speaker 2: he saw a case for the price of a barrel
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  Speaker 2: of oil shooting up to that one hundred and fifty
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  Speaker 2: to one hundred and sixty dollars range. And again he
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  Speaker 2: was not referencing twelve weeks. He was meant referencing two
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  Speaker 2: to three weeks at the current burn rates. So that
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  Speaker 2: would be a definite shock to the system. And yet
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  Speaker 2: you still have oil traders willing to bid this thing
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  Speaker 2: down on the hopes of some good news there. The
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  Speaker 2: job support we got this morning was the jolt support
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  Speaker 2: job openings labor turnover survey. We've been seeing some green
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  Speaker 2: shoots in the labor market. This report continue to confirm those.
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  Speaker 2: We saw job openings increase to seven point six million
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  Speaker 2: in the month of April. Total separations and hires both
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  Speaker 2: decreased five point one and five million, respectively. Quits rate
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  Speaker 2: and layoffs to discharges were both you know, little change
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  Speaker 2: month over month, and the biggest uptick in those job
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  Speaker 2: openings seemingly good news for the recent college grads. You
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  Speaker 2: saw in uptick specifically in professional and business services. You
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  Speaker 2: did see a decrease in job openings for finance and insurance.
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  Speaker 2: But again across the board here, whether it is the
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  Speaker 2: unemployment rate, the pace of job creation. We've seen in
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  Speaker 2: the first four months of the year, a number of
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  Speaker 2: things indicating reversal from what we were seeing in latter
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  Speaker 2: half of twenty twenty five.
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  Speaker 3: When it came to the employment situation.
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  Speaker 2: Anything to add on the state of the labor market
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  Speaker 2: at the moment, Paul, I don't have a whole lot
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  Speaker 2: else other than you sure are walking into a difficult
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  Speaker 2: situation for Kevin worsh to find any excuse to bring
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  Speaker 2: interest rates down at this point.
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  Speaker 4: No question will be interesting to see what we get Friday,
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  Speaker 4: but no real more to add on the labor market
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  Speaker 4: up front.
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  Speaker 2: Bloomberg today asks how much AI is too much for
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  Speaker 2: stock investors, and I personally just wasn't aware that there
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  Speaker 2: was a ceiling to this sort of thing. But it
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  Speaker 2: is speaking to the fact that when you take a
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  Speaker 2: look at the S and P five hundred index, or
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  Speaker 2: pretty much any broad based domestic or foreign index, at
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  Speaker 2: this point, more and more of it is being comprised
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  Speaker 2: of companies that are either directly attached to the AI
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  Speaker 2: industry or are somehow benefiting from it. And no surprise here,
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  Speaker 2: we're dealt with a massive concentration risk, the likes of
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  Speaker 2: which we haven't seen since the dot com bubble.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, this is the thing I like about this piece
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  Speaker 4: is certainly for investors out there are listeners out there.
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  Speaker 4: There's eleven sectors in the S and P five hundred,
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  Speaker 4: and tech has had the highest weighting of those sectors
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  Speaker 4: for quite a bit of time.
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  Speaker 5: It has escalated up to a point now where it.
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  Speaker 4: Sits about thirty five percent of the performance of the
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  Speaker 4: S and P five hundred on a daily basis. Is
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  Speaker 4: a tribute to all those big tech companies that we
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  Speaker 4: talk about a lot. But what is pointing out here
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  Speaker 4: in this Bloomberg piece is that if you expand out
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  Speaker 4: to some of the other sectors out there, in particular
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  Speaker 4: consumer discretionary and communication services, Google and Meta are big
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  Speaker 4: holdings in the communication services sector. Those are really tethered
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  Speaker 4: to the AI trade. And then if you look at
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  Speaker 4: consumer discretionary Amazon, which while it sells my wife and I,
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  Speaker 4: you know, toilet paper and diapers and stuff like that, Yeah,
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  Speaker 4: they're a big part of the AI story too. And
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  Speaker 4: so once you start to lump all those together, you
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  Speaker 4: can make the point that Bloomberg Intelligence does that the
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  Speaker 4: AI theme basket now can make up forty five percent
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  Speaker 4: of the S and P five hundred by waiting. So
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  Speaker 4: to Mike's point, there is some concentration risk if there
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  Speaker 4: is any dent to this story in terms of all
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  Speaker 4: the billions of dollars that have been allocated to build
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  Speaker 4: out data centers and so much.
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  Speaker 5: Of what we talk about in the program.
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  Speaker 4: It can be become much more dramatic when you see
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  Speaker 4: steep cell offs because so much of the market is indexed.
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  Speaker 4: A lot of investors out there are tethered to these
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  Speaker 4: passive indices, and if the text story takes a hit,
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  Speaker 4: then those major industries go down quickly with it.
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  Speaker 2: The interconnectivity of it all is always fascinating to me,
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  Speaker 2: So one I want to acknowledge this market taking off
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  Speaker 2: is not purely a result of people paying more money
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  Speaker 2: for stocks. Right, we talk about stock prices inflating for
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  Speaker 2: one of two reasons. One can be prices increasing, two
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  Speaker 2: can be earnings decreasing, and either way you're getting a
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  Speaker 2: more expensive stock. In those environments, what we are seeing
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  Speaker 2: now is some of the best earnings growth we've ever seen.
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  Speaker 2: The year over year earnings growth for the S and
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  Speaker 2: P five hundred came in at twenty eight percent I'm
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  Speaker 2: rounding there, but just about twenty eight percent, maybe closer
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  Speaker 2: to twenty nine for the first quarter. It's the fastest
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  Speaker 2: pace that we have seen since twenty twenty one. If
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  Speaker 2: you want to be critical, you sure can point to
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  Speaker 2: that most of it is coming from the biggest seven
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  Speaker 2: stocks in the country. Most of that earnings growth is
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  Speaker 2: coming from tech specifically, and it's pretty concentrated, as this
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  Speaker 2: piece points out.
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  Speaker 3: The other piece that again does not.
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  Speaker 2: Negate this story, because even if you took this out
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  Speaker 2: of the equation, you're still seeing very robust earnings growth.
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  Speaker 2: But one piece that I think is worth mentioning. Alphabet, Amazon,
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  Speaker 2: and Meta all saw a bunch of boosts their bottom
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  Speaker 2: line that came from a weird accounting thing called non
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  Speaker 2: operating income. Non operating income in this case, came from
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  Speaker 2: the fact that they have investments in other privately held
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  Speaker 2: companies that appreciated in value. So, as an example, Alphabet
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  Speaker 2: and Amazon booked to combine fifty four and a half
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  Speaker 2: billion dollars in pre tax accounting gains due to the
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  Speaker 2: market values on anthropic Meta booked an eight billion dollar
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  Speaker 2: windfall from a Treasury Department ruling on something else, and so.
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  Speaker 3: Look, even if you withdraw that, we're still seeing double
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  Speaker 3: digit earnings growth. It's pretty incredible.
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  Speaker 2: But I think understanding the interconnectivity of all these companies
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  Speaker 2: is important because if instead you had seen the valuation
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  Speaker 2: on some AI company fall apart, then presumably Alphabet and
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  Speaker 2: Amazon have to mark that down on their earnings calls
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  Speaker 2: as well. And so these companies are all increasingly interconnected
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  Speaker 2: with their bets on artificial intelligence, even companies that traditionally
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  Speaker 2: have had nothing to do with it. Forward saw their
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  Speaker 2: stock price bid up recently because their plans for battery
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  Speaker 2: tech and fueling the data centers. Toto Toilets saw their
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  Speaker 2: price bid up for Porcelain Expertise, Corning the Glass company
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  Speaker 2: saw their stock bid up. There is a lot of
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  Speaker 2: excitement about all of this, and increasingly the overall stock
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  Speaker 2: market is reliant on those gains.
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  Speaker 4: And it is important to note you mentioned the investments
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  Speaker 4: in Anthropic for some of those big hyper scalers, but
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  Speaker 4: there's also a bunch of investments from Nvidia and these
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  Speaker 4: other hyperscalers in every company or in a lot of
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  Speaker 4: companies within the AI infrastructure trade, whether it's it's core
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  Speaker 4: Weave or you know, these deals being made in place
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  Speaker 4: with with Dell and HP on the laptop side of things.
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  Speaker 4: With the media, it's a lot of circular financing where
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  Speaker 4: there is the tentacles spread out wide in our complex.
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  Speaker 4: And that's good when things are going well and there's demand,
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  Speaker 4: but just always important to consider both sides of it.
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  Speaker 5: That they're these companies are very entrenched with one another.
• 10:41
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• 10:44
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• 13:04
  Speaker 3: The entire PC market.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Yes, yesterday I got a nice little bump on some
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: news from in Video. In Videos shares jumped more than
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: six percent, Microsoft bumped up more than two Dell Technologies
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: surged nearly eleven percent, HP up eight and a half,
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: and Armholdings bumped up more than fifteen percent on this
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: bet that they are making. So what in Video's doing
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  Speaker 2: is they are rolling out a bunch of chips that
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: are designed to go into PCs, the idea being plainly
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: right now, if you go run a model on your computer,
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  Speaker 2: what you're actually doing is you are connecting to the
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: cloud and running you know, Anthropics claud or chat GPT
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  Speaker 2: off of their servers which are centrally located, and you
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: are not doing so locally on your computer.
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  Speaker 3: Your computer can't handle it right now. The idea is
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  Speaker 3: to make it so the computer can handle it.
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  Speaker 2: And presumably the assumption here on the surge and share
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: prices that these things are going to sell, companies are
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: going to want to buy them and run these models
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: locally on infrastructure in the office rather than centrally at
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: some data center in Utah that you have no control over.
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  Speaker 2: And I have to say that I'm a bit skeptical.
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  Speaker 5: Tell me where your skepticism lies.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: So for the last two decades or so, what businesses
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: have been told our own inclusion has been that storing
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: all of your data locally is expensive, inefficient, and dangerous.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: If you're building builds burns down, you're going to lose
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: it all. Backing it up via physical servers is expensive.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: It can be done faster, better and more securely by
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: Microsoft with some data center out in the middle of nowhere,
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: and and easier for your employees to easier for your
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: employee data mostly all sorts of benefits to having this
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: done centrally by a big company. And by the way, hey,
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: when improvements need to be made, yeah, you're paying rent permanently.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: But you know, if a security patch needs to get done,
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: it doesn't need to be done by you personally. It
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: gets done by this big company that has a lot
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: of expertise doing it. And that was the selling point.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: And now what we're hearing is, hey, no, these businesses
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: are going to want to run this stuff. I'm locally
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: on premise. Now, AI is different than file storage. So
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: first things first, I'll admit that data you know, AI
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: models are different than data.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: Storage, and you as.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: A business are justified in feeling that, Hey, anything that
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: my employees put into this AI model, I have zero
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: confidence that is going to be kept securely. This solves that, right,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: But you know, it also means that you don't have
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: the latest and greatest model because it's you know, hardware
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: built into your computer rather than pinging the latest data
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: center with the newest hardware somewhere out there. I just
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: wonder who's going to be paying up for this. And
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: even if you do say it, he has to be
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: run locally. Why would you want it run on the
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: PCs rather than in a centralized hubb at your office.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Like that's been the whole again, The whole push for
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: decades now with the big banks, for example, has been
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: you get rid of these locally sourced files that are
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: processing everything and do it centrally.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know that this is going to save the PC.
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree that it seems like it's more of
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: a transitionary solution than ultimately what will be the permit
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: direction of where.
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: This goes with our official talience.
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: Eventually, I think you'll get to a point where a
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: lot of it will be back accessed on the cloud.
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: For now, there are these security concerns, but don't you
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: feel as if those will just sort of assuage over
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: time as it becomes more and more prevalent. And I
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: just find it hard to believe that this is going
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: to be a long term solution. They're doing this a
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: lot because of you know, the buildout in data center,
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: is the accessibility the security piece. These seems like they're
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: bottlenecks today, But are they really something in the future
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: that is going to be of concern And will you
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: just be willing to spend a lot more on a
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: PC for the capabilities of having it at your fingertips
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: versus what we've been used to accessing it kind of
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: on the cloud.
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  Speaker 2: One use case that I came up with yesterday Live,
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: which again I cannot claim to be the foremost expert
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: on why any of this stuff needs to exist. But
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: if you are designing robotics that are powered by AI.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Let's let's say you're designing a new car technology that's
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: going to drive itself. You don't have time to ping
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: a data center in Iowa for can I pass this car?
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  Speaker 3: Right?
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: That needs to be done locally. That if AI is
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: powering that that needs to be done locally. It needs
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: to be done in computer that's small enough to fit
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: inside the car and as fast as and be very
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: fast if you are a surgery robot, or if you
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: are designing a device that's designed to be in the
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: home of a dementia patient and care for them. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: can see all these use cases as scenarios where it
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: is not acceptable for the power to go out or
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: for the internet connection to die and you to lose
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: the AI that's driving that thing. And so those are
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: some use cases that I think are And so if
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  Speaker 2: this is just a proof of concept, if it's hey,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: we're shrinking the chips to be able to be powered
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: in a PC, to be able to eventually do it
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: in a smartphone, which then can eventually be the size
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: that goes into a self driving.
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: Car or airplane.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Or you tell me what the technology is that AI
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: is going to power that I buy. But that then
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: calls into question, like, hey, is HP and Dell really
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: going to benefit from this in the long term or
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: is this going to be a short term boostes and
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: really just a proof of concept for something to come
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: in the future.
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: I have some questions about it.
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: The biggest one just remains.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: The story for the last two decades has been centralized
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: computing through data centers is the way to go, and
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: this is a reversal of that trend. So new technology,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: maybe it has new requirements, but I remain skeptical. Let's
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: take a quick break when we come back.
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: Wall Street Watch coming up.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Radio network.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: Tell you out full whoa.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Street Watch treking the stocks, the data, and the headlines
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: driving markets so far today right here on the Financial
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Exchange Radio Network.
• 20:00
  Speaker 6: Now ticking higher as traders sift through a new batch
• 20:03
  Speaker 6: of news items from the tech world. Wall Street's also
• 20:06
  Speaker 6: keeping a close eye on potential developments from the Middle East,
• 20:11
  Speaker 6: and of course, the price of oil.
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: Right now, the Dow is.
• 20:14
  Speaker 6: Up nearly a third of a percent, or one hundred
• 20:17
  Speaker 6: and fifty points, SMP five hundred up about two tenths
• 20:20
  Speaker 6: of one percent, NASDAC also up two tenths of one percent.
• 20:24
  Speaker 6: Russell two thousand seeing a nice little rally of about
• 20:27
  Speaker 6: one percent. Tenuere treasureeled is down two basis points at
• 20:31
  Speaker 6: four point four to four percent, and oil down modestly
• 20:37
  Speaker 6: just over half a percent lower, trading at ninety one
• 20:40
  Speaker 6: dollars a barrel. Marvel Technology now surging twenty eight percent
• 20:44
  Speaker 6: after in video CEO Jensen Wong said Marvel could become
• 20:48
  Speaker 6: the next trillion dollar company thanks to demand for AI hardware. Meanwhile,
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: Hewlett Packard Enterprises seeing it's stock rally twenty three percent
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: after the information technology company blew a Street expectations with
• 21:01
  Speaker 6: its earnings, citing rampant compute demand from customers transitioning to
• 21:06
  Speaker 6: AI tools. Alphabet announced plans to raise eighty billion dollars
• 21:10
  Speaker 6: to help finance AI infrastructure investments. Alphabet stock is down, however,
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: by two percent.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: Outside of tech.
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: Lingerie retailer Victoria's Secret height it's full year guidance after
• 21:24
  Speaker 6: beating earnings expectations citing lower tariff costs and willingness from
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: customers to spend.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: Full price on X products.
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: That stock is rallying by forty four percent. Now, I'm
• 21:37
  Speaker 6: Tucker Silvan. That is Wall Street Watch, and on the
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: previous segment, we asked you the trivia question. Aside from
• 21:43
  Speaker 6: Grover Cleveland. Name one of the two other US presidents
• 21:47
  Speaker 6: to get married while serving as president. Well, they would
• 21:51
  Speaker 6: be the presidents where John Tyler and Woodrow Wilson and
• 21:56
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• 21:59
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• 22:02
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• 22:06
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• 22:09
  Speaker 2: I feel like I've been a little bit obsessed over
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: stories about the job market for young people on today's program.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: But it is a job week here, so we are
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: going to be job heavy as we talk about this week.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: A new series of studies, one from the Federal Reserve
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Bank of New York another from the London School of
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Economics recently looked at the rise in unemployment among young workers.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: Now this was not a US only study. There has
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: been a rise in unemployment among young workers domestically. It
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: has calmed down in twenty twenty six and actually gone
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: lower in twenty twenty six.
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: But this study looked at two.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: Hundred and forty three million new hires and four hundred
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: and seventy million online job postings between twenty seventeen and
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: In the US, UK, Australia.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: And Canada, and they were trying to just look at
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: a whole bunch of different trends and probably did a
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: little bit of data minding to come up with the
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: answers here. But what they pointed at, and what Alison
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Schraeger concludes from Bloomberg here is if you're struggling to
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: find a job after graduation.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: Over the course of the last couple of years.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: It might have a lot more to do with working
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: from home than it does anything artificial intelligence related. Paul,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: what are some of the theories here as to why
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: work from home? I mean, I can see why work
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: from home would be damaging for a new hire if
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: you're twenty one years old and your manager is in
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: the office only fifty percent of the time. It can
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: I can see how it would be difficult to get
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: training and you'd have a lot of questions and not
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: a lot of mentorship.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: But what is the study actually think this here?
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: I'm not really I'm not buying what they're putting down
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: here now. I just no, it's just because, all right,
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: they're looking at who is getting higher for jobs. The
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: example that you just gave is someone who has been
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: hired for a job and all these is that the
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: study postulates in terms of work from home behavior being
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: more expensive to manage staff, and you know the training
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: is less and not as productive. Well, companies have a
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: pretty easy way to fix this, make them come to
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: the office. They've been doing that to a degree. They're
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: scrutinizing what is twenty percent of the US labor workforce
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: here in terms of those who are remote and permanently remote,
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: I think it's a smaller percentage somewhere in the teens.
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: So I'm just not ready to jump and say that
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: the reason for the slow down in hiring. And again,
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: when you're comparing it to twenty twenty two in the
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: example here in Allison's piece, you're comparing it to basically
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: the peak of the labor market employment.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be willing to buy that the pace of
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: hiring for young people slowed down in twenty twenty two,
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: just like it did for everybody else.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: I'd be willing to buy that AI is not to
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: blame for that.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Yes, that I'm okay with, But I'm not sure it
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: had anything to do other than the pace of hiring
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: slowing down.
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: That's kind of where I come back to is like
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: work from home. It just feels like.
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: Well, Okay, let's play this out.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: If you are a manager who works from home and
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: you are hiring somebody, I can see why you might
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: be hesitant to hire that twenty year old that you
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: need to train. Okay, I guess I can buy the premise.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: I would also buy the premise that if you have
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: the option, oh, because you're not there to physically teuse,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: you're like, what a pain in the budet's going to be?
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: I'm enough to be there and train this kid in person.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: I'd rather just hire somebody with ten years of industry experience. Likewise,
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: I would also buy that if you are a sixty
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: three year old who was given the option to work
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: from home in twenty twenty two and hasn't gone back,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: that you might have hung up the towel already and
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: now you're saying, hey, I'm gonna keep going. So maybe
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: you're holding on to employers longer, employees longer. If you are,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: I think all this is a moot point, because the
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: trend in twenty twenty six has been work from homes
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: over you know, go Thank Jamie Diamond and Abby Johnson
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: both of them just called all their employees fidelity in
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: one case JP Morgan Chase and the other back to
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: the office full time. And that trend seems to be
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: dying from big companies. I think permanently we will have
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: more people working from home. I just don't know that
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: you can blame it on any big trends of hiring.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: But I do see work from home as being a
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: net negative for young employees. I'm just not sure it's
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: impacting hiring. Right there, folks, want to talk to you
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: about a back by popular Demand seminar that we are
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: doing from the Armstrong Advisory Group.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: We put this together.
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: We did one was it last month I believe might
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: have been two months ago now, really because it was
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: designed to address the most common questions that our financial
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: advisors get from people facing retirement. It's about social security
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: and it's about medicare two issues that every retiree faces,
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: two issues that can have a lasting impact on your
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: overall five finances in retirement and frankly, two big topics
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: that people are concerned about because of future government changes
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: and the programs themselves have changed a lot over the
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: last few years. If you have questions about these topics.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: Please join us at our next event. It's going to
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: be down in Quincy. It's on Thursday June twenty fifth
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: at five pm. We're going to have a conference here,
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: a seminar on social security planning, Medicare, what your options
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: look like as you head to that retirement date. It's
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: free to attend. It's in Quincy at the Marriott Hotel
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: on Thursday June twenty fifth. Susan Powers, an advisor with
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: Armstrong Advisory Group, will be presenting on social security FI Vasulis,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: a Medicare and ruled agent, will be discussing Medicare options
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: for you and it is critical information to have as
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: you approach retirement.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: You can sign up for.
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  Speaker 2: Free by going to Armstrong Advisory dot com slash events
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: again Thursday June twenty fifth, five pm and Quincy Armstrong
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Advisory Slash Events or if you have questions eight hundred
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• 28:05
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: any investment Decisions Armstrong make contact you to offer investment
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: Over the weekend, I attended the movies for the first
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: time in.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: Quite some time.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: Haven't been in years, so I sound like I'm in
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: the nineteen forties or something like that. I went to
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: the movie I see a picture, a moving picture that
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: sounded everything.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: In quite some time.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: I saw The bread Winner, the Naper Datsy movie, which, again,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: if I'm forced into watching a PG movie with my kids,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: I'd rather one that has some adult humor for me,
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: and it did. It checked that box. It's not getting
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: great reviews from the experts, but nonetheless I had a
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: great time. But two movies kind of knocked the cover
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: off the ball over the weekend, back Rooms and Obsession,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: which are YouTube generated horror films, so I won't be
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: seeing them. It's not up my alley. But what is
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: notable about these is one they cost almost nothing to make.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: I think one of them was ten million bucks and
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: one of them was like seven hundred and fifty thousand.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: It was nothing to produce these things, and they brought
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: in massive attendees and most importantly, three quarters of the
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: people that bought tickets at least three quarters were young kids.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: This is a demo that the movie theaters have been
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: struggling to attract. And I got to say, while I'm
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: not excited about watching movies that got their you know,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: story origin from a YouTube creator, because that's not my
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: it's not how I consume entertainment. I get it like that.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: That is where kids are spending their time now. They
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: don't care about a repeat of the uh, you know
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: movie from nineteen ninety three that was a big hit
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: for me and oh they're gonna have gone back together.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: Give me the new Happy Gilmour movie.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Like I might find that nostalgic and entertaining, but a
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: twenty year old's not going to and instead they want
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: to see this movie, you know, directed by a twenty
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: year old in one case, And if it actually ends
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: up being a trend, then Hollywood's got to be thrilled
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: because they're gonna buy this content for next to nothing,
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: produce the movies for pretty you know, at least according
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: to that, it's pretty cheap. And they've been desperately trying
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: to figure out how to develop original content and in
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: my mind at least largely failed to do so.
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: Over the course the last dec.
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: Oh, no question.
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: It's always been about betting on existing ip and leveraging
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: you know, age old stories of superheroes or whatever genre
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: you want to It's mostly been superhero hockey, golfers there
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: or anything Adam Sandler related. It seems like he gets
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: bankrolled for any lousy movie that he puts together. But
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: it would be interesting at the lower end of the
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: scale here if this becomes more prevalent, sort of leveraging
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: what you know is already a hit with younger consumers
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: on YouTube or TikTok or wherever the case may be,
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: and expanding out that concept into a movie and doing
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: it low budget rather than shooting for the moon and
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: spending you know, two hundred million dollars to put together
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: Dune or whatever, you know, bigger motion picture. If that
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: becomes the end of things, the new solution. My wife
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: and I were saying just in general that there's so
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: few movie stars now that I feel like kids of
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: you know, these younger generations that focus on from what
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: we were growing up used to in the nineties and
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: the two thousands, Like the tabloid coverage was all these
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: big motion picture movie stars, and now it is the YouTube, Instagram,
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: stars that really take.
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: Out the advanceertainment has changed, no doubt.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: The other thing that I just wonder about, like it
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: is so expensive to go to the movies now, and
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: part of that's because the volume declined, and so they said, hey,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: we're going to make this or really like the movie
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: theater that I went to in Detam over the weekend,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: like I think there were maybe twenty five seats in
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: the theater. They were all the big reclining chairs. They
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: sell alcohol in the theater now, tickets were not cheap.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: If you're trying to attract a bunch of twenty year olds,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure that business model works quite as well.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: You might need to go back to the packed theaters
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: of my own youth, where you got the folding seats
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: and you know, twice as much capacity.
• 32:16
  Speaker 6: I don't know, I know we have to go to
• 32:17
  Speaker 6: break but like we still haven't taken our two young boys.
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: To the movies at all. We just haven't.
• 32:22
  Speaker 6: And we wanted to go see Super Mario Galaxy just
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: didn't work out. We're probably gonna take them to the
• 32:28
  Speaker 6: Toy Story I went. Anyways, we ended up renting Mario
• 32:32
  Speaker 6: this New Mario thing at home again. From the comfort
• 32:35
  Speaker 6: of our home for twenty five dollars. Right, they watched
• 32:38
  Speaker 6: it twice. Yeah, whereas we priced it up to the movies,
• 32:43
  Speaker 6: it was going to be close to one hundred dollars.
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, Yeah, that's where I'm at.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: So you need that ten dollars movie ticket with the
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: folding chair and not the luxury leather couch that I
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: sat in the other night.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: That's still not going to bring him back in though.
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: Like that, I think that's why you have to go
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: pre If you're gonna do it, it has to be twenty.
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: Five dollars to stay home.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: Seems to be sounds good to me. Man, Let's take
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: a quick break.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: When we come back, Tucker is going to complain more
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: about movie theaters and we're gonna do some stack roulette
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: on the Financial Exchange.
• 33:12
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• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Let's kick off some stack real out here, Paul, What
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: do you have for us this morning?
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: McDonald's is innovating their store concepts. They announced here at
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: their Global Growth Strategy Meeting that they will be pursuing
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: a new restaurant design, better tasting food and drinks, and
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: consumer lead innovation and improve customer service. Straight, So there's nothing.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: So your restaurant plan to improve sales is that we
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: got to make our food taste better.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's sure original.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, how are you going to manage that while also
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: making really cheap food in thirty seven seconds.
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: Specifically, what they'd be focusing on the food improvement to
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: answer your question is improvements to its MC Crispy chicken line.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: For the years, the chain has sought to improve and
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: expand its chicken offerings as Chick fil A and other
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: rivals have kind of taken their lunch in that space,
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: and Americans have been in more chicken than beef over
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: the last sixteen years or so, so that is part
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: of the focus, is sort of leveraging that play with
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: M Chrispy Chiston. This feels like a lot of corporate
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: boloney to me. I don't really know how you attribute
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: any real gains from this. This is just like something
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: you put on a PowerPoint, but it doesn't really scream
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: that it's going to drive sales necessarily by rehabbing the
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: stores or anything like that. It seems like value would
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: be kind of in this market is like, you know
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: you're not going.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: To be able to not going to McDonald's because I
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: want a high quality chicken. Ten No that you know
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: you've got going there because my kids are screaming they're volunteers.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: I've got twenty six dollars in my pocket, and I
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: need to be somewhere else in the next seven minutes.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: Right. One thing that so they made a big deal
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: of this like two years ago. Drink the drinks. Yeah, so.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know about everybody else's kids. My kids are
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: super into, like you know. Unfortunately, we go to Starbucks
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: around them or dunking around them fairly often, and so
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: they're always asking for something and they're super into Yeah,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: just shots of espresso.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: Really all about it.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: No, But but like McDonald's is now offering these refresher drinks,
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: these non caffeinated things with little boba in them, and you.
• 36:31
  Speaker 6: Know, no, no one does, you know, like Paul.
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: No, you got to look out for your partner on
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: the show.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: So I just not.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Boba's those a little like little tapioca balls that you're
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: getting a drink. I feel like I first discovered it
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: in China Town. You get a drink and it's got
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: the little tapioca balls. Nobody has any idea what I'm
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: talking about here. I'll just keep talking and pretend that
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: you all understand. Go look it up, you'll figure it out.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: But it's immensely pop and McDonald's is putting that out.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: Starbucks is doing them now too, But I kind of
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: want to try it now from McDonald's because I'm guessing
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: it is one quarter the price that I would pay
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: at Starbucks, so I might go forward with that.
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it seems like the drink thing was always just
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: nobody knows what BA is.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: No man, I feel like a snob. I am a
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: bit of a snob.
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: If you're looking for a good beach toy, If you're
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: looking for a good beach toy, is a ball. All
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: that skips on is a ball that skips on the water.
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: Highly encouraged?
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: Are you Google? Did you mean this?
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: Highly encourage a person that, for July fourth to skip
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: across our pool or ocean water while.
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: Drinking bobas Okay.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: Markets are moving up as we close out the show
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: and close in on the noon hour lunchtime here. The
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Dow Jones Industrial average up one hundred and fifty points,
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: about a third of a percent. S and P five
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: hundred up fifteen points one fifth percent. NASDAK similarly one
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: fifth of one percent to the upside.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: Oil prices still relatively.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Flat for the day, up one third of a percent,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: but obviously negotiations in Iran will drive that and we'll
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: be covering it for the rest of the week here
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: on the Financial Exchange.
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: Have a great rest of your day. Everbody