Latest / Birdland Territory / Jim Callis of MLB.com talks MLB/O's draft

Transcript

Jim Callis of MLB.com talks MLB/O's draft · Birdland Territory

0:07
Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome in the latest edition of Birdland Territory
0:11
Speaker 1: with Steve, Tim and Brad and a special guest today.
0:14
Speaker 1: The MLB Draft is coming fast July eleventh, at one
0:18
Speaker 1: thirty that's when it will be this year, Saturday, ahead
0:21
Speaker 1: of the All Star Game Sunday. They'll wrap it up
0:24
Speaker 1: twenty rounds and our guest today is Jim Kallus. I've
0:27
Speaker 1: known Jim for a long time, back to his Baseball
0:29
Speaker 1: America days and since twenty thirteen senior writer for MLB
0:34
Speaker 1: dot Com and mlbpipeline dot Com. One of the best
0:37
Speaker 1: analysts of young players out there. And you'll see Jim
0:40
Speaker 1: live on draft coverage Saturday and Sunday. Check your local
0:44
Speaker 1: listings if your networks are involved, including NBC, MLB Network,
0:49
Speaker 1: MLB dot Com, Mlbpipeline. Jim, we're gonna find you everywhere,
0:53
Speaker 1: but it's going to be a busy couple of days.
0:55
Speaker 1: And thanks for joining us today in the midst of
0:57
Speaker 1: all your prep for this thing.
0:58
Speaker 2: I know, I'm glad. I'm hoping you guys can tell
1:01
Speaker 2: me who the Orioles are taken at seven, since nobody's.
1:05
Speaker 1: We're gonna throw darts here in about five minutes and
1:07
Speaker 1: see where it lands. Because but it does sound like
1:11
Speaker 1: Jim and oriole fans love to talk about wanting those
1:16
Speaker 1: to drafted picture highly up the board, which they haven't
1:19
Speaker 1: under Elias. We you and I've been through this a lot.
1:21
Speaker 1: Fifty eighth Joseph Jerwhile last year was their highest drafted
1:24
Speaker 1: picture Underlias, it sounds very unlikely this year that that
1:30
Speaker 1: pick will be a picture at seven. Is that a
1:32
Speaker 1: fair statement?
1:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think there's really a picture who fits
1:35
Speaker 2: into the mix. And even if there were, I just
1:37
Speaker 2: don't think. You know this Orioles regime, I would be
1:42
Speaker 2: shocked if they ever take a picture in the first round.
1:44
Speaker 2: I remember, I guess it was two drafts ago. We
1:48
Speaker 2: were in Fort Worth and the draft was at this
1:52
Speaker 2: rodeo venue, so it wasn't near the ballpark, so it
1:54
Speaker 2: was like thirty minutes away. I was right, I know,
1:56
Speaker 2: over there with Mellie Newman, who does all kinds of
1:57
Speaker 2: oriol stuff. And I always in that kind of year,
1:59
Speaker 2: I'm always asking, like if I bumped into you guys
2:02
Speaker 2: on drive, like, hey, who are the Oils taking seven?
2:03
Speaker 2: I always ask people and I and I think that
2:06
Speaker 2: was a year I had maybe I had him taken
2:09
Speaker 2: Birdy Bread. I projected them to take a picture because
2:10
Speaker 2: they need to take they need pitching. So I had
2:12
Speaker 2: him taking a picture like twenty I think it was
2:15
Speaker 2: the Vance honeycut pick. I had him taken a picture
2:18
Speaker 2: as I asked him, Elanie, It's like, oh, so, who
2:19
Speaker 2: the oil's taking a twenty three or whatever it was,
2:21
Speaker 2: And She's like, all I know is it's not going
2:23
Speaker 2: to be a picture. You know, never take a picture
2:26
Speaker 2: in the first round. I was like, damn it, Like
2:29
Speaker 2: I think, you know, unless you had They're looking up
2:32
Speaker 2: and Paul Skeen's is staring them in the face. I
2:35
Speaker 2: would be surprised if they ever took a picture in
2:37
Speaker 2: the first round.
2:39
Speaker 1: The only guy who's projected high up the board pitching
2:41
Speaker 1: wise is Jackson Flora, right the UC Santa Barbara right hander,
2:46
Speaker 1: who most mock drafts have him being taken in the
2:49
Speaker 1: five range.
2:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, like, he probably fits like somewhere in there, four
2:53
Speaker 2: to six. I agreed, and like, but I do. And
2:55
Speaker 2: again I'm not claiming I know this for a fact,
2:57
Speaker 2: but if Jackson Flora was there at seven, I don't
3:00
Speaker 2: know that I project the Orioles take Jackson Fall. I
3:02
Speaker 2: just don't think they're gonna take a picture. I'd be
3:05
Speaker 2: surprised if they took a picture in the first round,
3:07
Speaker 2: and I'd be shocked if they took a picture with
3:09
Speaker 2: the top ten pick, because I just don't think they
3:11
Speaker 2: believe that you should take pictures that early in the draft,
3:14
Speaker 2: and they've obviously not done that the whole time they've
3:17
Speaker 2: been in Baltimore.
3:19
Speaker 1: Last thing for me, and I want to these other
3:20
Speaker 1: guys that jump in with Jim Kalls from MLB dot
3:23
Speaker 1: com mlbpipeline dot com. So Jim's a lot of mock drafts,
3:27
Speaker 1: including yours at MLB dot com. Most recently had them
3:31
Speaker 1: taking Drew Burris, the outfielder from Georgia Tech. I see
3:34
Speaker 1: his name link to the oriols constantly. What can you
3:37
Speaker 1: tell us about Drew Burris?
3:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's funny. So there's there's there's six guys,
3:41
Speaker 2: so I think are the consensus top six. You got
3:44
Speaker 2: rach Alowski Easila shortstop, Braye Emerson is Texas shortstop. Those
3:47
Speaker 2: are the top two guys they're not, and that un
3:50
Speaker 2: lack of Georgia Tech catchers maybe like a half tier
3:52
Speaker 2: behind them. And then you have you mentioned Jackson, Flora.
3:56
Speaker 2: And you've got a couple of high school guys. You
3:57
Speaker 2: have Jacob lombardho high school Shortstop Florida and Eric Boothy's
4:01
Speaker 2: High splot of Florida, Mississippi. Those are kind of the
4:03
Speaker 2: clear top six and after that it's wide open. I
4:06
Speaker 2: do think Drew burse would be the consensus next best
4:09
Speaker 2: guy for most teams, and I like him Alai. I
4:13
Speaker 2: actually think he's slightly underlated than should hire a list
4:16
Speaker 2: because we have number seven on our list as well
4:18
Speaker 2: as projecting to go seven. But the knocks on him
4:21
Speaker 2: are he's like five foot I think he's listed at
4:23
Speaker 2: five foot nine, and he hits right handed, and you
4:26
Speaker 2: wish he was a little bigger, and you wish he
4:27
Speaker 2: was you hit left handed. This guy's produced for three
4:30
Speaker 2: years at Georgia Tech. He's and he's got you know,
4:34
Speaker 2: it's solid tools across the board. I mean the power.
4:36
Speaker 2: He hit a bunch of homers is I can't remember
4:38
Speaker 2: how many it was his first ten games in college.
4:40
Speaker 2: I think it was ten or twelve homers his first
4:42
Speaker 2: in games as a freshman. And the power is this
4:44
Speaker 2: tool that jumps out the most. But this guy hits
4:46
Speaker 2: for average, he controls strike zone, he's a solid runner,
4:48
Speaker 2: he can play center field. He's got arm strength, so
4:50
Speaker 2: he could play all three. And I just think in
4:53
Speaker 2: this class, most of the college hitters have an obvious flaw,
4:57
Speaker 2: and Drew's flaw is he's a little bit short and
5:00
Speaker 2: he hits right handed. It's not any flaw in particular
5:03
Speaker 2: with his game, and so I think he's he would
5:06
Speaker 2: be easy if the top six guys go one, two, three, four, five, six,
5:10
Speaker 2: he would be an easy number seven pick for me
5:13
Speaker 2: because I don't think there's anything wrong with his game,
5:15
Speaker 2: and I think he's he's more polished than some of
5:19
Speaker 2: the high ceiling hitters Oils have taken recently, and I
5:22
Speaker 2: think he would get to the big leagues pretty quick.
5:23
Speaker 2: And you know that's that's a bonus. I'd rather get
5:26
Speaker 2: the most talented player. But I just think he's got
5:28
Speaker 2: solid tools across the board.
5:30
Speaker 1: Very interesting. Jim kallis whether it's today talking draft and
5:33
Speaker 1: some other those topics here with their group on Birdland Territory.
5:38
Speaker 3: Brad Hey, Jim, to me, the draft still fascinates me,
5:42
Speaker 3: even after playing all the years I did and everything,
5:44
Speaker 3: it's just such a craft shirt. So you're talking about
5:47
Speaker 3: college hitters and everything. Do you think they have gotten
5:50
Speaker 3: better over the years, that the reason why they're getting
5:52
Speaker 3: pushed so quick to the big leagues or is it
5:54
Speaker 3: you just think it's the way the game has gone.
5:56
Speaker 4: I know it's kind of a general question, but do.
5:58
Speaker 3: You think these college hitters are more polish than they
6:00
Speaker 3: have been, let's say, ten years ago, fifteen years ago,
6:03
Speaker 3: from what you've seen.
6:05
Speaker 2: I do. I mean the twenty twenty four twenty twenty
6:08
Speaker 2: four draft was an outlier where you guys like traspas On,
6:11
Speaker 2: Nick Kurtz and Jack kagleone and a bunch of other guys,
6:14
Speaker 2: you know, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teal rushed to the big
6:16
Speaker 2: like that was an outlier. Like usually isn't that many
6:19
Speaker 2: Christian more, usually isn't that many guys. But I do
6:21
Speaker 2: think one I do think college baseball is better than
6:25
Speaker 2: it was ten, fifteen, twenty years ago. It's just in
6:27
Speaker 2: terms of quality of depth of teams. I do think
6:31
Speaker 2: you just look at the amount of instruction players get
6:33
Speaker 2: even before they get to college. Now. I mean a
6:35
Speaker 2: lot of it's private lessons, but I do think you
6:38
Speaker 2: have guys who just play a lot more. They've seen
6:41
Speaker 2: them more. You know, the showcase circuit has grown to
6:43
Speaker 2: where like you can spend the whole summer facing you know,
6:45
Speaker 2: quality competition rather than you know, hey, I live in Illinois,
6:49
Speaker 2: for example, and you know, during the high school season,
6:51
Speaker 2: how many guys you can see throw higher than eighty
6:53
Speaker 2: miles an hour? But you can see that all summer.
6:55
Speaker 2: I think with the metrics, I think teams also can
6:58
Speaker 2: kind of hone in on how to help guys get better.
7:00
Speaker 2: I think it's definitely a case where when I started,
7:06
Speaker 2: and I mean I started working in Baseball America back
7:08
Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty nine out of college. Back then, I
7:11
Speaker 2: think there was this thought that players weren't necessarily one
7:15
Speaker 2: hundred percent fully formed, but there's only so much you
7:17
Speaker 2: can do. How much you could get guys better, you know,
7:19
Speaker 2: like natural talent was going to be the driver, and
7:22
Speaker 2: like you couldn't get guys to throw much harder or
7:25
Speaker 2: spin the ball much better, or develop more power and
7:30
Speaker 2: you know, or bat speed or whatever. And now teams
7:32
Speaker 2: know how to do those things, So I think that
7:34
Speaker 2: helps too. But then I also think eliminating a level
7:38
Speaker 2: of the minor leagues just naturally forces guys to move quicker,
7:42
Speaker 2: and so the guys who jump on the fast track
7:43
Speaker 2: and have success just get to the big leagues quicker.
7:45
Speaker 2: So I think it's I think it's true, Brad, for
7:47
Speaker 2: a lot of reasons.
7:48
Speaker 5: Okay, Jim, kind of a two parterre you saying, starting
7:54
Speaker 5: Baseball America in nineteen eighty nine, just how have you
7:57
Speaker 5: seen the popularity of MLB's draft and then the prospect level?
8:03
Speaker 5: I feel like, especially in Baltimore where the Orioles went
8:07
Speaker 5: through a tremendous rebuild, where you're looking ahead to some
8:10
Speaker 5: of these top prospects and fans are more knowledgeable about
8:14
Speaker 5: these guys than they ever were in the top one
8:16
Speaker 5: hundred list and the top thirty list within the organization.
8:20
Speaker 5: And part of that is I think minor league Baseball
8:23
Speaker 5: has done a much better job of marketing these players.
8:26
Speaker 5: Just how have you seen the draft grow and also
8:29
Speaker 5: the minor league grow?
8:31
Speaker 4: Yeah?
8:31
Speaker 2: I mean it's exploited. I mean, I'm old enough. We
8:34
Speaker 2: didn't have the Internet when I started, honestly, and at
8:36
Speaker 2: Baseball America we were pretty much you know, Alan Simpsons
8:39
Speaker 2: started the magazine because Sporting News kind of expanded and
8:43
Speaker 2: still went from being the Bible of Baseball to cover
8:45
Speaker 2: in the big four sports. And Alan loved the draft,
8:47
Speaker 2: and he loved the minor leagues, and he loved college baseball,
8:49
Speaker 2: and so I started Baseball America. It had been around
8:51
Speaker 2: for eight years when I got there. Nobody else was
8:54
Speaker 2: covering that at all. But we were print publication that
8:56
Speaker 2: came out every two weeks, like people love them, even
8:58
Speaker 2: though minor league stats by time you got them were
9:01
Speaker 2: probably two three weeks old. If you wanted how guys
9:04
Speaker 2: were doing the minor leagues, that was the only place
9:06
Speaker 2: you saw the stats, Like there was no other way.
9:08
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess maybe if you went to a
9:09
Speaker 2: minor league game, you might get an insert that have
9:11
Speaker 2: the team stats in there. And the draft, like there
9:15
Speaker 2: was the draft on like not only would it was
9:17
Speaker 2: the draft on TV a foreign concept and will be
9:20
Speaker 2: at that point wouldn't even release the draft list, like
9:24
Speaker 2: like you'd have the fifth round. They would release those
9:27
Speaker 2: picks in order to the AP so you know who
9:29
Speaker 2: was draft in the first round one order, but other
9:31
Speaker 2: than that, it would just be okay. The Orioles drafted
9:35
Speaker 2: seventy two players and they'd list them in alphabetical order
9:37
Speaker 2: and you wouldn't know who the rounder was. And that
9:42
Speaker 2: again Alex Simpson, who loves baseball, priam like all aspects
9:46
Speaker 2: of baseball more anybody I know, and started Baseball America
9:49
Speaker 2: in his garage with no publishing experience, just because he
9:52
Speaker 2: felt like baseball needs an magazine like this. Anyway Alan
9:55
Speaker 2: would get so we would come out every two weeks.
9:57
Speaker 2: We probably would come out, you know, ten days after draft,
10:00
Speaker 2: and like when I started, Allan would call the teams
10:03
Speaker 2: individually and he put the first five rounds together, so
10:05
Speaker 2: we'd print that, and then we had and they still do,
10:08
Speaker 2: I think, a yearly almanac, and we would get the
10:11
Speaker 2: complete draft order in order for the almanac, which was
10:14
Speaker 2: a book that had all these statistics in that would
10:15
Speaker 2: come out in the off season. But that was that.
10:18
Speaker 2: So finally mid nineties Alan was get a point where
10:22
Speaker 2: he could get more and more of the draft quickly.
10:23
Speaker 2: So I think it was I don't know if it
10:25
Speaker 2: was ninety five, ninety six, somewhere around there. Alan felt like,
10:28
Speaker 2: I can get the draft order. I could put the
10:30
Speaker 2: draft order together within two or three days. So again
10:33
Speaker 2: just to show you the technology at the time, we
10:35
Speaker 2: were going to sell it to you via facts, like
10:38
Speaker 2: if Steve wanted to know the Oriols draft order, we
10:40
Speaker 2: would fact, like, I don't know, we'd sell it to him.
10:42
Speaker 2: I don't know, two bucks, we would fact Steve the
10:46
Speaker 2: Orioles draft in order. And so basically at that point,
10:49
Speaker 2: because nlb's attitude always was they didn't want the college
10:52
Speaker 2: coaches to know where gods were getting drafted because they
10:54
Speaker 2: felt like maybe it was different back then. I find
10:56
Speaker 2: it a little hard to believe that teams were recruiting
10:58
Speaker 2: in June, like wait until to recruit, but like, I
11:01
Speaker 2: don't know, if you saw somebody was drafting thirty second
11:03
Speaker 2: round or the twelfth round, you're like, oh, let's go
11:05
Speaker 2: get that guy or whatever. So that's why MLB didn't
11:08
Speaker 2: want the draft rounds out there. And I think it
11:10
Speaker 2: didn't hurt that the players didn't necessarily know where they
11:12
Speaker 2: were drafted when they were trying to sign them. But
11:15
Speaker 2: because Baseball America was good, you know, I don't know what,
11:17
Speaker 2: we would have faxed you the whole draft, but if
11:19
Speaker 2: you want the whole draft, we'd fax that to you too.
11:21
Speaker 2: When we announced plans to do that, MLB is like, Okay,
11:23
Speaker 2: we'll release the draft so we've gone from that where
11:26
Speaker 2: MLB didn't even want people to know what round guys
11:29
Speaker 2: were getting drafted in to now like it's all lot
11:33
Speaker 2: Like I forget how many years even before I know
11:36
Speaker 2: the first broadcast like network broadcast was ESPN in two
11:40
Speaker 2: thousand and seven, and I think maybe a couple of
11:42
Speaker 2: years before that, MLB dot Com did some online commentary,
11:47
Speaker 2: like you could used to be able to listen to
11:48
Speaker 2: the conference call. But I remember again when I started
11:52
Speaker 2: Baseball America, like I thought the coolest thing in the
11:55
Speaker 2: world was so we would do this press conference in
11:56
Speaker 2: omahaber year at the College World Series for our college
11:58
Speaker 2: Player of the Year and we'd have the all If
12:01
Speaker 2: there were All Americans first Team All Americans who are on
12:04
Speaker 2: collegoral Turis teams, they'd come too, but MLB would let
12:07
Speaker 2: us pipe in the first round of the draft the
12:09
Speaker 2: conference call into our press conference, and so like I
12:13
Speaker 2: remember being there when Todd Helton found out the ro
12:16
Speaker 2: he was thrilling the Rockies drafted in. I remember there
12:19
Speaker 2: brooks Keishnick can go in the first round. The Cups
12:21
Speaker 2: took him. But like it seemed like the height of
12:23
Speaker 2: technology in the early nineties, to just to be able
12:25
Speaker 2: to listen to the conference call live as picks were happening.
12:29
Speaker 2: That just seemed like the coolest thing like finding out
12:31
Speaker 2: right when guy like this is pre internet, Like like
12:35
Speaker 2: you wouldn't know, like honestly until you got the paper
12:37
Speaker 2: the next morning and maybe they would list the first
12:39
Speaker 2: round picks on the aget page. So we've come a
12:42
Speaker 2: long way. And I agree to him. I mean, like
12:44
Speaker 2: like there's obviously a lot of outlets and it's instantaneous,
12:47
Speaker 2: like like just even the concept you can watch I
12:49
Speaker 2: think virtually every full season minor league club. Maybe it's
12:53
Speaker 2: all of them, it's not, it's almost all of them.
12:56
Speaker 2: I can watch them on my phone. Like if you
12:58
Speaker 2: took that in the early nineties, I'd be like, like,
13:01
Speaker 2: how big is my phone going to do?
13:02
Speaker 4: What are you talking about?
13:03
Speaker 2: Like it's just crazy the amount of information that's out
13:09
Speaker 2: there in video and yeah, and the people, I mean
13:12
Speaker 2: people don't know the draft players as well as they
13:15
Speaker 2: know the NFL NBA players because those guys are going
13:16
Speaker 2: to step right in. But they still Again when I
13:19
Speaker 2: started covering it, I think ESPN might broadcast one game
13:23
Speaker 2: a week, like on like a Sunday night college game
13:26
Speaker 2: and maybe during the postseason if you were lucky, you
13:29
Speaker 2: maybe get two regional games before you know, they broadcast
13:32
Speaker 2: the college Old Series. Now you can watch it seems
13:36
Speaker 2: like almost I mean it's not every D one game,
13:38
Speaker 2: but it seems like you can watch almost every Division
13:40
Speaker 2: one game somewhere. And then you know, now ESPN's got
13:43
Speaker 2: squeeze play. I mean, all the regional games are live
13:46
Speaker 2: or you can watch them as they do whip around
13:48
Speaker 2: show like again. But I think these guys are you know,
13:51
Speaker 2: and just the high school guys like the showcase. There
13:53
Speaker 2: were maybe a couple of showcases when I start, but
13:55
Speaker 2: it's not like it is now and there's nationally televised
13:57
Speaker 2: games and we're going to do the High School America
14:00
Speaker 2: and MLB does They're going to do from Field of
14:02
Speaker 2: Dreams in August like that, like having a nationally televised
14:05
Speaker 2: high school All Star game, like so you like see,
14:08
Speaker 2: you know, like the guys for next year's draft on TV.
14:12
Speaker 2: There was that was never gonna happen.
14:14
Speaker 1: Before A long Way, Come a long way. The Oose.
14:17
Speaker 1: The Oos have, by the way, three top one hundred picks.
14:20
Speaker 1: We're talking with Jim Kallus about the draft number seven,
14:23
Speaker 1: number forty six, and number eighty two, and we'll continue
14:26
Speaker 1: with Jim in a minute. Here on Birdland Territory.
14:35
Speaker 5: The Orioles are trying to get back in the mix,
14:37
Speaker 5: and you don't want to miss the upcoming action this
14:40
Speaker 5: home stand. I would look to go to Wednesday for
14:42
Speaker 5: a little weekday day game action.
14:45
Speaker 6: Twelve thirty five.
14:46
Speaker 5: First pitch, I would suggest getting tickets in the Burbeth
14:49
Speaker 5: because it is supposed to be insanely hot this week
14:52
Speaker 5: in Baltimore.
14:53
Speaker 6: But make sure your tickets to the game.
14:56
Speaker 5: Geek, with over thirty five million downloads, see geek is
14:59
Speaker 5: the number one rated ticketing app. There are more than
15:02
Speaker 5: seventy thousand events listed on seat geek, including concerts, sports, festivals,
15:07
Speaker 5: and more. We're at the halfway point of MLB season,
15:10
Speaker 5: the World Cup is in the knockout round, and the
15:12
Speaker 5: NFL in college football seasons will be here before you
15:16
Speaker 5: know it. I love using seat geek, have been using
15:18
Speaker 5: it for years heading to different events and of course
15:21
Speaker 5: os games and seat geek.
15:23
Speaker 6: They always have your back.
15:24
Speaker 5: Each ticket is rated on a scale of one to ten,
15:27
Speaker 5: so you know you're getting a good deal.
15:29
Speaker 6: Look for the.
15:29
Speaker 5: Green dots, Green's good, Red is bad, Stay away from
15:32
Speaker 5: Red plus. Every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee.
15:36
Speaker 5: And of course we have a code for you guys
15:39
Speaker 5: to hook you guys up. You can use code Territory
15:42
Speaker 5: ten for ten percent off your next set of MLB
15:45
Speaker 5: tickets at Sea Geek. That's ten percent off any MLB
15:48
Speaker 5: tickets with promo code Territory ten. Make sure you click
15:52
Speaker 5: the link in the description to download the app and
15:55
Speaker 5: have the code automatically added to your accounts so you
15:57
Speaker 5: can use it later.
15:59
Speaker 6: Thank you.
15:59
Speaker 1: Seek Jim Kallus with us today here on Birdland Territory. Jim,
16:04
Speaker 1: one thing it's always fascinating to me over the years,
16:07
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure what the latest numbers say. You
16:09
Speaker 1: might have some thoughts on it is how few players
16:12
Speaker 1: need to make the major leagues to make a team's
16:15
Speaker 1: draft successful. I've learned history talking to guys like you
16:18
Speaker 1: and JJ Cooper and scouts over the years, and this
16:21
Speaker 1: is going back to when a draft was fifty rounds,
16:23
Speaker 1: then it was forty outs twenty. What's a good draft
16:27
Speaker 1: numbers wise?
16:29
Speaker 2: I mean, this will sound kind of funny, but if
16:32
Speaker 2: you get honestly, if you get a solid big leaguer
16:36
Speaker 2: out of the draft. You're doing better than most teams.
16:38
Speaker 2: I mean haven't studied this over the years, and a
16:41
Speaker 2: tiple draft there will be say five to ten star
16:45
Speaker 2: level players if that like true stars in a draft,
16:51
Speaker 2: and then you'll have maybe a couple dozen players who
16:57
Speaker 2: you know, like I don't mean up and down like
16:59
Speaker 2: the back forth major mind I played lot of good year,
17:01
Speaker 2: Like maybe they're not a statey performer, but they'll they'll
17:03
Speaker 2: be decent players over the course of their career. And
17:06
Speaker 2: then after that it's kind of guys who have a
17:07
Speaker 2: good year. Here there a cup of coffee and like
17:09
Speaker 2: it's funny, Like just illustrate this. Every year MLB dot
17:14
Speaker 2: Com has me do it a story where I redraft
17:16
Speaker 2: the first round from ten years previously. So this year's
17:19
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen number thirty four first round picks that year
17:23
Speaker 2: of the top fourteen, well as I have it sorted
17:27
Speaker 2: out now the top fifteen players from that draft based
17:31
Speaker 2: on what they've done, what we project them to going forward.
17:33
Speaker 2: Only one the top fifteen guys who signed was a
17:35
Speaker 2: first round pick, and that was probably the best one
17:37
Speaker 2: of them, Will Smith. But not to disparage these guys
17:41
Speaker 2: because they're big leaguers. But right now, the bottom of
17:43
Speaker 2: my first round is guys like Alex call, Anthony Bender,
17:47
Speaker 2: John Schreiber, Tobias Myers, Recoo Garcia, Jojo Romero, and Brian Baker.
17:53
Speaker 2: Like again, and not to disparait those guys, but if
17:56
Speaker 2: we were redrafting the twenty sixteen draft today, those guys
18:00
Speaker 2: potentially be first round picks. And I don't think anybody
18:02
Speaker 2: when they their teams million first round pick is going, oh,
18:05
Speaker 2: I hope we get a reliever who has a couple
18:07
Speaker 2: of decent seasons in the big leagues. But that's that's
18:10
Speaker 2: the reality of the draft, like it's it's now. The
18:13
Speaker 2: flip side is, because you get these guys and you
18:16
Speaker 2: control they're earning power, essentially for three years, they have
18:20
Speaker 2: to take what you're willing to give them, and for
18:22
Speaker 2: three more years they're limited by arbitration where they'll get
18:25
Speaker 2: more money but not what they get in the free market.
18:27
Speaker 2: Like you, if you get a solid big league regular.
18:30
Speaker 2: Let's say I take a guy in the middle of
18:31
Speaker 2: first round and I give him five million dollar bonus.
18:34
Speaker 2: If that guy's a big league regular for the first
18:36
Speaker 2: six six years, or his career, most of it he
18:38
Speaker 2: might be worth. You know, even if he's only worth
18:43
Speaker 2: let's say he's worth one win above replacement per year,
18:45
Speaker 2: just he's around number, which is like more of a
18:48
Speaker 2: you know, part time type of guy that's like a
18:51
Speaker 2: fifty or sixty million dollar value and talent, and you're
18:54
Speaker 2: probably only paying that guy his bonus plus a salary.
18:57
Speaker 2: He's like maybe ten million dollars. You're coming out way
19:00
Speaker 2: So you've come out way ahead financially because you're you're
19:03
Speaker 2: when you hit on a start, like when you hit
19:05
Speaker 2: on Gunner Henderson. You know, he signed for I don't remember,
19:10
Speaker 2: like what two or three million. He was overslot, but
19:12
Speaker 2: like Gunnar Henderson on the open market would be making
19:16
Speaker 2: much much more than he's been paid so far. So
19:18
Speaker 2: it even though you don't it doesn't seem like a
19:21
Speaker 2: huge return on investment, like, oh, we're getting four big
19:23
Speaker 2: leaguers out of one draft for like big league regulars.
19:26
Speaker 2: If you just hit on one of those guys, you're doing well.
19:30
Speaker 2: I mean, the draft, the draft is hard. The draft
19:33
Speaker 2: is very very hard.
19:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's amazing.
19:35
Speaker 3: I remember, Jimmy, we were talking about seeing it come
19:38
Speaker 3: up on the computer.
19:39
Speaker 4: Screen when I got drafted. That's what happened.
19:41
Speaker 3: I saw my name come up on the computer screen
19:43
Speaker 3: before I got the phone call from the scout. So
19:46
Speaker 3: bring me back to the draft of the mid two
19:48
Speaker 3: thousands there.
19:49
Speaker 4: But Jim, do you think it's more.
19:51
Speaker 3: Satisfying being finding kind of a dark horse in the
19:55
Speaker 3: draft or being kind of hitting on.
19:58
Speaker 4: Someone you predicted to be a superstar? Do you?
20:00
Speaker 3: I know it's kind of apples and oranges, But it
20:02
Speaker 3: is it cooler for you kinda to find somebody and say,
20:05
Speaker 3: the fifth to tenth round that ends up becoming a
20:07
Speaker 3: major league regular that you kind of had predictions that
20:10
Speaker 3: might play better than where he gets drafted.
20:12
Speaker 4: Or is it pretty cool hitting.
20:14
Speaker 3: On a guy that goes top three and he's what
20:16
Speaker 3: everybody kind of expected when he got drafted.
20:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think on the top guys, I
20:20
Speaker 2: think it's it's more you like finding the guys that
20:22
Speaker 2: are kind of hidden gems because the guys go at
20:25
Speaker 2: the top of the draft, Like if Rachlowski and Great
20:28
Speaker 2: Emerson are superstars, everythings, those guys are going to be great.
20:31
Speaker 2: So it's like, I mean, not that it has to
20:33
Speaker 2: be hey look at me, but like I'm not really
20:35
Speaker 2: telling anybody anything that they don't know, like the one
20:39
Speaker 2: I'll go back. And I was lucky on this because
20:43
Speaker 2: I think there are three guys on this guy in
20:45
Speaker 2: high school, and I happen to, like I don't talk
20:47
Speaker 2: to every area scout for every team, like it's impossible
20:50
Speaker 2: because I have half the I have half the country.
20:52
Speaker 2: Jonathan May and I split it up, but I'll try
20:54
Speaker 2: to talk to I don't know, four or five area
20:57
Speaker 2: guys cross checkers for each of my states, so you
21:00
Speaker 2: get a sampling of information. But anyway, so there were
21:03
Speaker 2: three guys on this guy in high school, and I've
21:05
Speaker 2: happened to three teams on him in high school. I
21:07
Speaker 2: happened to talk to two of the teams that were
21:09
Speaker 2: on him. But we had Jacob Mizarowski on our list
21:12
Speaker 2: in high school and he had not played on the
21:14
Speaker 2: Showcase Circus. He had a hamstring injury and he didn't
21:17
Speaker 2: have a senior season because of COVID, So we had
21:19
Speaker 2: him I don't know, like number one eighty, but nobody
21:22
Speaker 2: else knew who this guy was. And so I continued
21:24
Speaker 2: to be very proud of that one. And then we
21:26
Speaker 2: were on the bandwagon, like he was weird. He went
21:30
Speaker 2: to junior college. He he tores meniscus his first start,
21:32
Speaker 2: so he barely pitched a freshman, and then when he
21:35
Speaker 2: came back he was raw. He wasn't thrown nearly as
21:37
Speaker 2: many strikes as today, but like just the metrics and
21:40
Speaker 2: the arm strength, and you're like, man, this guy got better.
21:42
Speaker 2: Like he's he's had so little playing time. He could
21:44
Speaker 2: be really good. So like that one's fun. Like I
21:47
Speaker 2: will continue, but again I will say I was lucky
21:49
Speaker 2: because I happened to talk to two of the three
21:50
Speaker 2: teams that were on him, were like, hey, this guy
21:53
Speaker 2: could be interesting. You have to throw him on the
21:54
Speaker 2: back of your list. And so we did. And and
21:57
Speaker 2: I still, we just got back from the draft combine,
21:58
Speaker 2: and you're two. I told. I remember telling him, you know,
22:01
Speaker 2: you have to get in Mirowski on camera. This guy
22:03
Speaker 2: will throw better than anybody does at the combine. And
22:06
Speaker 2: I remember I was sent with Dan O Dowd and
22:08
Speaker 2: he and he got ready to pitch, and Dana Dud's like, Jimmy,
22:11
Speaker 2: here's your guy. Let's see what he's got. And I
22:13
Speaker 2: don't remember. The first pitch was like one oh one,
22:16
Speaker 2: and I mean it's a bullpen, but like like his
22:18
Speaker 2: extension and the men like it was crazy and and
22:21
Speaker 2: Dan's like pretty good and like he was going like
22:24
Speaker 2: three thousand spins sliders at like eighty nine miles an
22:27
Speaker 2: hour and wound up going second round. So like, yeah,
22:29
Speaker 2: I think it's cool. It is kind of cool when
22:32
Speaker 2: you're like, hey, I somebody told me about that guy
22:35
Speaker 2: before anybody else knew about it. Like that's like those
22:36
Speaker 2: are kind of most fun. Like just like I mean
22:38
Speaker 2: we were saying, I mean, Brad, I mean you were
22:40
Speaker 2: a forty second round pick and you pitched what was it,
22:43
Speaker 2: like five hundred games in the big leagues. I mean, yeah,
22:45
Speaker 2: that's pretty cool. Like like I don't like, give your
22:48
Speaker 2: who's your ear scout, give your ear scout some love.
22:51
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, Jim Brett, sorry you got Yeah, Jim Brett's sorry,
22:54
Speaker 3: Yeah I didn't.
22:56
Speaker 2: But I was just saying, like Jim bred I mean,
22:57
Speaker 2: he obviously wasn't pound the table. We gotta take this
22:59
Speaker 2: guy eighth round, but he saw something and like, I mean,
23:02
Speaker 2: how many I'm gonna guess that the prior many players
23:05
Speaker 2: taken after the forty round. He pitched five hundred games
23:08
Speaker 2: in the big leagues and like, I'm sure I don't
23:09
Speaker 2: know who else Jim Brett sign, but I bet you're
23:12
Speaker 2: one of his favorite signings because of what you achieved
23:15
Speaker 2: relative to where you were picked.
23:18
Speaker 1: Awesome stuff from Jim kallis here on at Birdland Territory.
23:21
Speaker 1: More coming up.
23:22
Speaker 7: This episode is brought to you by Fan Duel Baseball Fans.
23:25
Speaker 7: The MLB season is in full swing and fan Duel
23:28
Speaker 7: is giving you a chance to call your shot with
23:30
Speaker 7: Daily Dingers. Joining the action is easy. Just make your
23:33
Speaker 7: free pick on who's hitting a home run in their game,
23:36
Speaker 7: and if you're right, you'll get a profit boost to
23:38
Speaker 7: use on your next bet for a chance at extra winnings.
23:41
Speaker 7: It's just another reason why fan duel is the home
23:43
Speaker 7: of home runs. So are you ready to play your game?
23:46
Speaker 7: Head over to FanDuel dot com slash podcast to get started.
23:50
Speaker 7: That's FanDuel dot com Slash podcast. To opt in for
23:54
Speaker 7: Daily Dingers and make your free pick on who's hitting
23:57
Speaker 7: a homer. Playball and swing for the fen is on FanDuel,
24:01
Speaker 7: an official partner of Major League Baseball. No purchase necessary
24:05
Speaker 7: often required. Bonus issued as non withdrawal profit boost tokens.
24:09
Speaker 7: Restrictions apply, including any token expiration and max wager amount.
24:14
Speaker 7: See terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling problem
24:18
Speaker 7: call or text one eight hundred gambler.
24:22
Speaker 5: Jim, I definitely want to ask you about I'm sure
24:25
Speaker 5: you've seen and thought about the proposal that MLB put
24:28
Speaker 5: out changing the draft rules, and we're a long way
24:32
Speaker 5: away until the CBA expires December first. But in this proposal,
24:37
Speaker 5: having the rounds go from twenty to twelve eliminate high
24:41
Speaker 5: schoolers eligibility to be drafted, you have to be twenty
24:44
Speaker 5: years old.
24:45
Speaker 6: Just what did you think of that proposal?
24:49
Speaker 2: I have to choose my words carefully here because we're
24:51
Speaker 2: not really I work for MLB. I'm obviously not involved
24:54
Speaker 2: in negotiations, but they don't really want as commenting on
24:57
Speaker 2: sure proposals. Guess I will say from a player development standpoint,
25:02
Speaker 2: I don't think it would be great for player development.
25:04
Speaker 2: Some of the things were proposed, but what winds up
25:07
Speaker 2: happening more long way off though, I'm just not supposed
25:10
Speaker 2: to comment much on specific proposals. They would be great.
25:15
Speaker 2: Anderson wouldn't be eligible in this year's draft, and he
25:17
Speaker 2: might be the number one overall pick.
25:19
Speaker 5: Well, here's a transition then, Jim Jackson Holiday. He of
25:23
Speaker 5: course was a high schooler who was drafted number one overall,
25:26
Speaker 5: still very young in his career and making the transition
25:30
Speaker 5: from shortstop to second base. And this year got off
25:33
Speaker 5: to a little bit of a funky start with a
25:35
Speaker 5: Hama bone surgery. Just what have you thought of Jackson
25:39
Speaker 5: Holliday from the time that he was the number one
25:41
Speaker 5: overall pick to his initial part of his MLB career.
25:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I know Andrews had played someone apart.
25:47
Speaker 2: I'm a little surprised he hasn't been better, because, man,
25:50
Speaker 2: that first full year in the minor leagues, I mean,
25:52
Speaker 2: he rocketed from single A to triple A. I remember
25:56
Speaker 2: we looked back. I mean outside of somebody like a
25:59
Speaker 2: Rod who means the greatest prospect I've ever seen, who
26:01
Speaker 2: went from singlely to the big leagues in his first
26:03
Speaker 2: full season. You just don't see guys do with Jackson Hall.
26:07
Speaker 2: And he's such an advanced to bat. You know, I'm
26:10
Speaker 2: a little surprised, like I said, that he hasn't based
26:14
Speaker 2: on the trajectory he was on, I would have probably thought, Okay,
26:18
Speaker 2: Jackson Holliday he'll be an All Star by now, and
26:21
Speaker 2: he hasn't quite gotten there yet. I still think, I mean, man,
26:23
Speaker 2: he's so young. What is he twenty two this year?
26:25
Speaker 6: Twenty two?
26:27
Speaker 2: I still think he's going to be a star. I
26:29
Speaker 2: just don't think you hit like he did at that
26:31
Speaker 2: younger age and you don't become a big league star.
26:33
Speaker 2: It would shock me, Jim.
26:36
Speaker 1: In our final moments, you want to ask what your
26:38
Speaker 1: take is on O's, the O's farm system overall. Right now,
26:41
Speaker 1: I think if we were to look at organizational rankings
26:44
Speaker 1: by a lot of outlets, the Ools will be somewhere
26:46
Speaker 1: in the middle of the pack. Oriol fans know they
26:48
Speaker 1: were number one there for quite a while. They had
26:51
Speaker 1: three straight number one ranked players three years in a
26:55
Speaker 1: row with Rutchman and Gunner and Jackson. Only one of
26:59
Speaker 1: those three are really selling as we tape this this year.
27:03
Speaker 1: It's hard, man, I guess, to produce players. But what
27:06
Speaker 1: do you like about what the O's are doing right
27:08
Speaker 1: now and what are some things that are challenges for
27:10
Speaker 1: their player development and their minors?
27:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think they have a pretty good
27:15
Speaker 2: core of prospects. You know, at the top of our
27:18
Speaker 2: prospect list, I mean, I know Nate George has been
27:20
Speaker 2: banged up a little bit, but like, I mean, that
27:22
Speaker 2: was a great late round. Fine. I like Irish and
27:25
Speaker 2: beheaval Lay from last year's draft or off the pretty
27:28
Speaker 2: good starts in Hia. Aeron Estrada is having a good
27:30
Speaker 2: year in Double A Lease Da Leone like e ra
27:34
Speaker 2: is high, but he's missing a ton of bats. He's intriguing.
27:37
Speaker 2: Trey Dick Gibson got to the big leagues. We've seen
27:40
Speaker 2: Joseph jurwa is having a really good year, you know,
27:44
Speaker 2: as Obama Hea. I mean, he's got to throw more strikes,
27:47
Speaker 2: but he's got a really live arm. Boston Bateman's interesting.
27:49
Speaker 2: I mean, I do feel like their pitching depth is
27:51
Speaker 2: a little better than it has been recently. Itty Quinn,
27:55
Speaker 2: another guy they drafted fairly early last year's pitching pretty well.
27:59
Speaker 2: You know, I think the biggest challenge for the Orioles,
28:02
Speaker 2: and we've seen this at the big league level, is
28:04
Speaker 2: to come up with pitching. You know, when Michael aast
28:06
Speaker 2: came over from the Astros, and the Astros pretty much
28:10
Speaker 2: never I mean, they took Mark pell which didn't pan out.
28:13
Speaker 2: But if you look at the guys who A lot
28:15
Speaker 2: of the Astros' best pitchers were either like really inexpensive
28:18
Speaker 2: international signings or later round draft picks like say fifth
28:22
Speaker 2: round on or they went out and they made big
28:25
Speaker 2: trades to get Garrett Cole and Justin Berlander and Zach Grinke,
28:29
Speaker 2: who are three Hall of famers. But the Astras didn't
28:31
Speaker 2: invest a lot of early picks in pitching. And you've
28:34
Speaker 2: kind of seen Michael Lies do that in Baltimore, but
28:37
Speaker 2: they haven't had the same success you're finding international pitching
28:41
Speaker 2: or necessarily finding hey, here's a guy like we took
28:44
Speaker 2: Connor Brown in the fifth round and he's you know,
28:46
Speaker 2: like a top three al Cy Young Award finisher or
28:50
Speaker 2: you know, and they have any outside trading for Corbin
28:51
Speaker 2: Burns to haven't made like the big, splashy trades. So
28:54
Speaker 2: I think that's kind of the biggest challenge is coming up,
28:57
Speaker 2: you know, whether it's going to be developing pitching or
28:59
Speaker 2: trading for pitching or however they can to come up
29:00
Speaker 2: with pitching. They hadn't quite had the same success they
29:03
Speaker 2: had in Houston of finding pitching, even if they aren't
29:07
Speaker 2: spending earlier around picks on it.
29:09
Speaker 1: Very interesting the dollars are pretty massive here for some
29:12
Speaker 1: of this stuff, Jim, as you well know, you put
29:14
Speaker 1: this out every year. The number one pick, which will
29:16
Speaker 1: be the White Sox this year, has a bonus slot
29:19
Speaker 1: of eleven point three to five million. The number one
29:22
Speaker 1: pick in the draft, the Oriel seventh pick, has a
29:25
Speaker 1: bonus slot of seven point three to two seven million,
29:28
Speaker 1: which is more than half of the Orioles total pool
29:32
Speaker 1: for ten rounds of picks. And then it's still eleven
29:35
Speaker 1: for eleven and twenty gym, isn't it one hundred and
29:37
Speaker 1: fifty thousand tops? If you go over, it comes out
29:40
Speaker 1: of the pool for those picks.
29:42
Speaker 2: Correct. Correct. So the Oriels have, you know, like you said,
29:45
Speaker 2: thirteen million, little over thirteen million. If they spend five
29:48
Speaker 2: percent over the pool, which is the max you can
29:51
Speaker 2: go without losing first round picks, they can get closer
29:53
Speaker 2: to fourteen. They'll be You know that pick seven is
29:56
Speaker 2: gonna be interesting from a financial standpoint, because, like I said,
29:59
Speaker 2: you have your it doesn't always work out this way,
30:01
Speaker 2: and it probably won't. You have your kind of clear
30:02
Speaker 2: top six guys, and everybody thinks they're going to go
30:04
Speaker 2: one through six. So the Oyls could entertain like, let's
30:08
Speaker 2: say there's four guys they like the same, or similarly,
30:11
Speaker 2: you take the guy who's least likely to go high
30:14
Speaker 2: and maybe you can save some money there without sacrificing
30:17
Speaker 2: talent in your mind compared to who's on the board,
30:20
Speaker 2: and then spend it later. So it'll be really interesting
30:23
Speaker 2: to see what they do with that. They'll be interested
30:24
Speaker 2: see if one of the top six gets to their pick,
30:26
Speaker 2: and then if they just pounce on that guy.
30:29
Speaker 1: I'll end our show with this note. The last time
30:31
Speaker 1: they drafted number seven, it worked out. The Oils would
30:33
Speaker 1: love to duplicate two thousand and three, when they drafted
30:37
Speaker 1: a young kid out of a junior college in Georgia
30:40
Speaker 1: named Nick Markakis. That worked out pretty well. They'd love
30:44
Speaker 1: to hit like that again when they draft number seven
30:47
Speaker 1: on July eleventh. Jim Man, great to spend time with you.
30:51
Speaker 1: Thanks for being with us today on Birdland Territory. The
30:53
Speaker 1: draft is July eleventh and twelfth, the Saturday and Sunday
30:57
Speaker 1: ahead of the All Star Game. And if you watch
30:59
Speaker 1: Jim and Jonathan Mayo and Melanie's with you again, right,
31:03
Speaker 1: Melanie Newman from Yes.
31:05
Speaker 2: I think I think we well I'm not sure, but
31:09
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure we're gonna be solo for like Melanie
31:12
Speaker 2: and the sides. I'll be on the sideset with Melanie.
31:14
Speaker 2: We'll be two through four, I think, all by ourselves
31:16
Speaker 2: on day one, and then Melanie, I almost she'll be
31:20
Speaker 2: with us for day two. She has been in the past.
31:22
Speaker 2: She probably will for rounds five or ten. I'll do
31:25
Speaker 2: whatever they tell me when I get there.
31:29
Speaker 1: Yes, I had an administrative assistant to walk you from
31:31
Speaker 1: room to room. Listen, man, good luck with the coverage, Jim.
31:34
Speaker 1: I'm marvel when they get the rounds fifteen and sixteen
31:36
Speaker 1: watching Jim and Jonathan Mayo know so much about these
31:40
Speaker 1: young men, and it's a credit to you, guys, but
31:42
Speaker 1: it also means a lot to the people watching those kids.
31:45
Speaker 1: That's a big day for them, and you make it
31:47
Speaker 1: better for him with your coverage. Jim, thanks so much,
31:50
Speaker 1: my friend. We'll look forward to watching you on July eleventh.
31:53
Speaker 1: And thanks for being with us today.
31:55
Speaker 2: Oh no, great talking to you guys.
31:56
Speaker 1: I had a good time, Jim Gallas with us on
31:59
Speaker 1: Bird and Territory. Those fans, and we'll see you next time.
32:21
Speaker 2: H