Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Schedule Release Betting Breakdown | NFC Edition

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NFL Schedule Release Betting Breakdown | NFC Edition · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Krabits,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: your host, back at it with the first lady of
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the pod, Miss Kendrim Middleton, and our man who puts
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: the prime and Evan Abrams is here to break it
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: all down. Give us some trends that we can look
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: at with schedules release across the National Football League. I've
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: been waiting hours and hours for smart sensible. We'll see
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: if we get that and entertaining schedule release show. I
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: tried watching the ESPN Sports Center special. Guys, what a
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: slopfest that was. Laura Rutledge great at what she does.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Every individual is good at their job, but way too
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: many panelists, everyone talking over each other. Kyle Brandt thinks
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: he's hilarious. Let's bring the people what they need, which
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: is a good schedule release show. Let's also bring in
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: our guest dejure. Jill Gallant, Action Network analyst, the Touchdown
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: prop Guru, is here with us. Jill, great to catch
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: up with you. You're ready to break down some schedules. We're
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: going NFC first here.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, and you made me think of, because I
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: tried to watch some of that Sports Center ESPN version
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: of the schedule release last night and it just got
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: me got so galaxy brain thinking of how could we
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: reinvigorate this. I think what they need to do the
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: NFL if you just take a little bit of logistics aside,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: what you could do is almost like a money in
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: the bank like WWE style thing where instead basically the
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: last place team of each division comes out and it says,
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: all right, well we get to swap a home game
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: with this team, and it's like, oh my god, they
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: picked this team instead of that team. It would cause
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: so much more entertainment. And I know, obviously logistics society
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: would really probably ruin some of the NFL on that front,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: but I just was thinking to myself, Man, if you
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: could have like Washington come out, who finished last in
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: the division, or the Giants come out and they say,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: all right, well instead of switching the home games with Eagles,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: we're gonna switch with Washington because we think we have
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: a bigger advantage.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: And it's just like whoa they switched. Like.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: I just think that that's where we need to go
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: with that schedule release going forward.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels off the top rope. Evan think, how do
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: you take in schedule release night? Is it a thing
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: for you or do you just kind of wait for
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: it to drop and then and then do your work
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: from there.
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: Jill, it seems like the guys first, Jill, do you
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: seem like the guy who wants like the number one
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: seed to be able to pick their opponent when the
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: playoffs starts.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, I mean in the NBA specifically, I love if
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: that would come to fruition. But in the NFL absolutely,
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, like I mean the NFL, Like, I
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: just think that with the way that they tried to
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: go amalgamate like the NFL Network and ESPN at the
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: same time, it was just too many people stepping on
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: each other's toes. I think they should almost treat it
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: more like the draft, like where the last place team
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: gets to switch a home game like with one of
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: the opponents within the division, and then you think that
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: it's going to be the number one team, but they
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: actually choose like another team. It just causes more bad
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: blood and rivalry.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I'm all for that. Yeah, I'm not trying to turn
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: this into an ESPN slash NFL Network hate Fest.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: But Kendre, the games are leads, like all the primetime games,
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: all the international games, so there's very little surprise, like
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: by the time we get like five minutes into the broadcast, of.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Course, and then it becomes you have a Cowboys hat on,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: so it becomes like, look, this is what the Cowboys
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: schedule looks like, Kendra, we gotta get away from this.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: The seven analysts on a desk, it's just it's awful,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: awful TV.
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: I consumed the schedule release doing red light therapy, and
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: because I think I have a little bit of a
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: different view of this because of like the content creation thing.
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: I feel like this truly, and I said this on Twitter,
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: the NFL schedule release is my mechala because it combines
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: my love of like video content online and the NFL.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: So I think that for me, I just I get
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: my popcorn ready. I'm like ready to go in bed, showered,
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: teeth brushed, and I'm going to sit there and consume
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: everything for hours. I didn't wind up watching what all
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: of the analysts had to say into the rerun started
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: on ESPN later in the night. I legitimately did not
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: see it until after the Anaheim Ducks game ended.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So I'm curious then, because I pose this to Evan,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: and I think for all of us out there, we're
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: taking this in as football fans in different ways. For
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: some people that are watching or listening to us, this
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: is the first bit of content that you have consumed
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: for the NFL schedule release. There's the social media side,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: with each team dropping a video of their own version.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: There's the analyst side and the conglomerate of ESPN and
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the NFL network. So there's a lot of different ways
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: that you can do this. Kendrie, you're looking at this
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: through the team side. So are we going like division
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: by division? Do you go in alphabetical order? How are
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: you taking in? I tried to watch for the Usually
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I just kind of like let it hit me throughout
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the course of the day. But I know that we
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: have this show to do, so I tried to watch
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: all thirty two schedule release videos. I passed out about
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: sixteen teams in. I just don't know how you do it.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: So what's the strategy here for taking in all of
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: the content.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: So I'll do the teams that I care about the
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: most first, So obviously like Jaguars, Patriots one, and two,
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: and then from there, I'll let my timeline and everyone
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: kind of exploding give me the rest of it.
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: I did the AFC South first, and then I had.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: To go look at the Chargers because the Chargers are
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: notorious and iconic for their schedule releases. And then from
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: there I will google the teams in alphabetical order and
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: go through them that way.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Well, this is an NFC episode, so let's sen we
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: have an AFC episode coming up as well, But give
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: us the NFC team that crushed the social media release.
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Atlanta Falcons and their SportsCenter
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: commercial theme. I thought that that was really cute, really funny,
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: and I think that there are teams where you can
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: tell where they try too hard and they overthink it. Specifically,
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: I think the AFC simultaneously won and lost last night
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: as far as the creative direction of a lot of
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: their videos. But I thought the Falcons did a really
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: good job. And I thought that the Seahawks also did
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: a really good job. They did like a spoof on
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: a like the old perfume commercials or like Cologne commercials,
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: and I thought that it was funny. I thought that
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: it was cute. I think on the NFC side, those
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: are the two teams that stood out the most to me,
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: but kind of everybody else was just me. I'm not
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: gonna remember it because I hated it or because I
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: love it. But on the AFC side, I have lots
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: of comments, lots of comments.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: The we had a lot of different lengths. I notice, Yeah,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: some of these videos, Evan are six minutes long. That
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: would be my number one rule if I was running
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: the show for any of these social teams, I go, okay,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: it's two and a half minutes max.
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: We can't keep ninety seconds.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I can't expect people to hang around for this. Are
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: you with me on that? Like there's any to be
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: a rule here?
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: I mean, I haven't seen a single one of these today.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Last night a single one.
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: My goal today? Well, listen, there's an article on the site.
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: It was late night. There's lots of you know, things
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: had to be done, but today is that's what today's for.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: I'm listening to this show on you guys to try
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: to get some understanding of where I should start. I'm
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: gonna make it through all thirty two today. It's gonna
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: be bad, but I gotta do it. I got to
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: see where people want and it's like the most creative
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: time of year for that team, those industries. Like it's
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: kind of awesome how where that's progressed and where that's
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: gotten to. So I'm all about it. I honestly want
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: to hear Kendra who is the worst, because I think
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: that's kind of funnier. Like the Chiefs with the sour
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: dough bread like that stuff where teams just fall on
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: their faces. I think is kind of funnier. Since there's
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: so much effort put into this.
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: Just wait for the AFC's that's my that's my teas
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: for the next episode.
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: I have so many things.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: To say, so I tried to I tried to do
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: my part. I didn't want to put all of the
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: social media review on kenj just shoulders, even though she
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: probably wanted that. But this is my word document where
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I have notes and grades. I did not make it
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: through all thirty two teams because I got bored with
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: this project, but I got a lot of them done.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: The only f that I gave to an NFC team
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: was the Carolina Panthers. They had now I appreciate their schedule.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Release video was only twenty three seconds, so this did
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: not take long to consume. You might want to start there, Evan,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: just to sort of wet your palette with a twenty
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: three second video, but it was this weird things were
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: blowing up in a field. I didn't understand what the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: theme was, and it was almost too fast. I don't
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: want a six minute video, but you gotta give me.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: You have all off season to put a schedule release
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: video together and you come up with twenty three shitty seconds.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: That that's not good enough. The Sad Cats take the
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: gal Country.
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they did like a longer version on their website
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: that was like, I think, way longer. It was like
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: four minutes long. But their theme was like bomb Squad.
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: I don't I didn't understand it.
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: I didn't like it.
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: I thought it was a weird, weird moment, weird decision,
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: weird choice.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: So I think that they'll get it in a few years.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Right exactly. Yeah, they're still They're still on the climb.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: So they're just they're just our little baby sat cats. Uh.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: The Cowboys had a good one, the Tyler Intelligence Committee.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: It was kind of a weird concept, but a plus
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: because they trolled the Maleik Neighbors Division rival for crapping
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: on the Giant's pick in the live stream that he
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: was a part of. So I kind of like I
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: like this idea of trolling your competition. Let's get too
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: the football side of things still to come. Our breakdown
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: of the best games, the best schedules, and our way
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: too early plant the flag bets for week one. But first,
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• 11:30
  Speaker 1: The crown is yours, all right, Let's start with the
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: games that we are looking forward to the most. For me,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: it's like everything in Week one because it's fresh and
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: I can't wait for football season to start. Primetime games.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I'll look in that direction. Revenge games, holiday games, That's
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: what I'm looking for personally, Jill, you are a special
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: guest today. What games stands out to you. On the
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: NFC side, we'll get it going.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: Well, there's a couple, but I mean, obviously a little
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: bit of bias on my friend. As Cowboys fan, I
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: do want to see the Eagles and Cowboys play in
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Week seven. I feel like that game, even though they
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: do play in Thanksgiving, that game I think is going
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: to be a good measuring stick to kind of see
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: where these teams are, especially the Cowboys with how much
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: they've invested in their defense. But if they can't beat
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Philly in Philly like, it's kind of a pretty telltale
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: sign that maybe they're not legit contenders, especially with the
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: way that their schedule unfolded, where I know that we
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: could look at grades and say, oh, it's bottom five
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: from my pov. That looks like the hardest schedule in
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: the NFL.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Evan, what stands out to you as far as the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: games that you want to see the most.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's hard for me to look forward past
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: week one in terms of stuff I actually really want
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: to see. We're talking about like Bill's Chiefs obviously AFC,
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: but like that's to me, you start circling some of those.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: I tend to just focus on Week one. I kind
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: of wish Week one was a little bit different, Like
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't know. Everyone has a different opinion here,
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: Like I don't necessarily know if I love seeing the
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: division games in week one, Like maybe it's a time
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: and I think I heard on social to do like
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: an AFC versus NFC's Challenge or something different where the
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: matchups are kind of unique. But that's not what's on
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: the table right now. We have our game. So my
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: favorites probably Packers Vikings. Maybe I think there's a lot
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: of intrigue in that game. You put Green Bay on
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: the road. Obviously, I think the better team, the more
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: stand up team. At the moment, still don't know who
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's quarterback is but that to me interesting enough for
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: Week one, where I've kind of looked at that a
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: few times, that has me kind of thinking about a
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: few things I want to ask you.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: I wanted to ask Evan about the Week one because
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: the four pm slate right now, and this has been
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: something with the NFL that I've noticed just over the
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: years that the four pm slate just sometimes in Week
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: one it is so like you get one marquee matchup
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: and then the other three are just duds. And right now,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: looking at that four pm slate for Week one, Packers
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Vikings is awesome, but Dolphins Raiders, like Cardinals Chargers like
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: obviously I'm NFL deprived.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch it.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: But Week one, those two matchups, specifically right at the
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: five or four pm slate, I feel like it's kind
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: of a letdown compared to what we might see for
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: you know, Sunday Night Football with Cowboys and Giants, or
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: even Monday Night Football with Broncos and Chiefs.
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: I think the league hopes Mendoza starts, which is probably
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: not gonna happen, to give the hype on that game
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: a little bit. I mean, you have league Willis in
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: his first start, Like, yeah, there's not much intrigue for
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: that one. Cargo's Chargers could get interesting. It'll be the
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: highest spread on the board. It's gonna be like eleven,
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: which is a fun storyline. So we'll see what happens.
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: But Arizona is terrible.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: It does seem like Man's gonna make it to Los
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Angeles though, Yeah, that's fair.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: It seems like the NFL because over the years it's
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: such a common complaint for us in that four o'clock window,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: especially if you're watching Red Zone and Scott Hansen's just
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: you know, putting God's work in at that point in
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: the day that the NFL really wants to push the
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: the whatever the big Fox or CBS game is, and
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: so they kind of it's almost like like a basketball
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: player going ISO, like they just want to clear out
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: the paint and just give you that one big marquee
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: matchup that everybody focuses on. The four o'clock window is
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: a pseudo prime time when in the NFL, and I
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: think that's why they clear it out because it just
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: otherwise doesn't make any sense why you wouldn't slide some
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: of those one o'clock games up so that we have
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: a more well bodied, balanced schedule. One of the things
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: that stands out to me obviously, guys, you know heavy
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: in the camp of the Falcons, Ravens Falcons Sunday Night
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Football Week five, Battle of the Birds. Two weeks later
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: you have Mahomes and the Chiefs perennial championship contenders. Can
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: they get off the mat against the current Super Bowl
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: champions And it's Kenneth Walker going up against his former team,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Chiefs Seahawks Week seven. That's interesting. But if we're going
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: all NFC because some AFC teams sprinkled in there, Monday
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Night Football Week two stands out to me, Kendrick, I
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: know you're gonna be all over this one. The Giants
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: feel like the buzz team going into the year. The
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Rams are the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: That game's got a lot of juice. Week two, Prime
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Time Giants Rams is the one that I am circling.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: Can I say that you guys really buried the lead
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: here because the Thanksgiving.
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: Slate is fucking awesome? Yeah, Thanksgiving, you.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: Guys buried the lead so hard here the Thanksgiving Day slate.
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: I'm sorry Grandma, I'm sorry.
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: Whoever else is gonna be at the party, I'm gonna
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: be on the couch hammered.
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: See ya well, kencha at.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: The one o'clock game too, Like, how often have we
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: showed up and been ready for the one o'clock game
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: and it's just awful, awful quarterback play. At least this
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: time we're gonna be able to see Jared Goff and
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Cable Williams.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Go head to head.
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: Everybody's gonna be on the couch.
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: Mom and dad will be fighting because nobody's doing the dishes.
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: This is going to be a holiday that everyone's gonna
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: talk about in twenty years because the.
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: Girls were pissed off that people were on the couch. Okay,
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: to be.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: Fair, I think this year feels like the storyline is
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: also the NFL kind of aret like went in way
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: hard in the sense that a lot of teams under
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: prime time games. Some teams have a ton of primetime games.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: They just don't care. And the holiday schedule, if you
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: look down, the entire list is ridiculus, Like every game
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: is absurd. They just didn't care this year. Yeah, they
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: just didn't care, do you guys?
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: I was going to ask you that question.
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: Do you guys love or hate the idea of games
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: every single night of the week kind of once we
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: get past October because I love it from the immediate
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: gratification standpoint of, Okay, I know what I'm doing every
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: single night when it's cold outside. I don't have to
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: go anywhere. I don't have to make plans, like my
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: plans are made for me. But I don't love it
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: from the long term aspect of players can't get in
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: routines if your team is good.
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: It's almost like a curse.
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: I was listening to Damian Woody kind of talk about
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: the schedule this morning, and he was like, as a player,
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: the Jets have a perfect schedule because they play at
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: one pm every single Sunday. Players want to get in
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: their routine. That's what they like. I like it from
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: the immediate sweet there's football on all the time right now,
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: But eventually we're going to start seeing the same things
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: that we saw last season with quarterbacks who just are decimated.
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: By the time we get to week eight.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: I think what the schedule for these teams looks like
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: the week after or the week before matters a lot,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: and I haven't done a lot of digging on that,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: but in general, as a fan, I don't mind it.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I think if you talk about the actual logistics of football,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: it's so different. I'll have a good day baseball game
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: or a back to back in the NBA. You can
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: do that in those sports. It's hard to overschedule in
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: the NFL because of how physical the sport is. And
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: do I need you mentioned the Thanksgiving slate? We might
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: not even have the fucking turkey. Did you see Thanksgiving
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: eve is Packers Rams. I mean we might not even
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: be making the side dishes the night before this year.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: It's a little gratuitous. I'm not gonna complain about it,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: because what are we going to be doing when the
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Rams play the Packers on Wednesday night before Thanksgiving?
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: We're going to making your third plate? Duh?
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Well this is the night before the Rams, the night
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: before Wednesday.
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the Wednesday game. I don't know if I love that.
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: I gotta be honest like this, like together, everything is good,
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: but like you, somebody called into our radio station yesterday
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: and said that the NFL is getting so greedy that
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: it's getting to a point where it's going to rip
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: families apart. Because back in the day it was Sunday.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: If you were, you know, a good husband and a
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: good father every other day of the week, your wife
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: would let you have Sundays for football. And because if
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: the NFL's greed, it's like, ah, babe, well the game
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: is on tonight, and the game's on tomorrow, and the
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: games on Thursday.
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: Like what point is enough enough?
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah? Thank you that very well said those A nice
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: PSA for families across America. I don't know what I
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: would do if I didn't work in sports, because I
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: can always couch it by saying, come on, this is
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: what we do, but it is it's a tough spot
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: for tough spot for the family.
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: I'm single and childless. Baby. Let me tell you.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Exactly all right now. The team that you are we
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: are looking at after the schedule release, and we already
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: knew the strength of schedule. So maybe bets were already placed,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: maybe you already had inklings. But I like to take
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a look at how the schedule is going to flow
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: before I make any bold wagers team that you feel
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: like you're gonna smash an over on after the release.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I've got one, though, I've got one that I love,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: but we'll get started with Evan, what are you looking at?
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: So? I think this is a little bit of a
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: tough couch. The Lions are the team that you kind
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: of want to bet based off of their schedule, easiest
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: win total strength to schedule. They face an average team
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: of about ninety to one super Bowl odds every single
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: week throughout the entire season, which is a massive, massive number. Now,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: I didn't like Detroit as a team. You look at
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: the roster, the whole deal they finished last last year,
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: so obviously helps their schedule this year. So it's hard
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: to go. You go a little bit both directions here
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: because I don't know if I love the whole framing
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: of the team, some of the moves they made in
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: the offseason. But their schedule is really really easy, especially
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: compared to last year. They are a full win difference
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: in terms of their average opponent win total last year
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: to this year. It's only the I think it's like, yeah,
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: I think it's the fifth time that's happened since two
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: thousand and two where a team has taken a win
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: total and it's moved an entire full win over a season,
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: which is crazy. Four of those five before went over
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: their win total, which is a decent call for Detroit,
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: so it's hard not to go the Lin's direction.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Well, I'll piggyback off of that because that was the
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: team that I love as well. Sixth of the easiest
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: schedule in the NFL. No, it's all good. I mean
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: all three of us. One that stood out and we
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: got another one. We have got that.
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: Literally put in our notes the Lions to win the North.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: The Lions are cooked. They opened the year with the Saints,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the Jets, the Panthers, the Cardinals in in four of
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the first five weeks of the season. They have the Dolphins,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: the Titans, and the Vikings two times. They're gonna be
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: on the doorstep of eleven wins very quickly. I know
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: ten and a half is high, but it's that high
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: for a reason. Evan detailed it well. Uh in his recap.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: I like the Lions over ten and a half win?
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: Are you what do you? Okay?
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: See, I thought about this too, but I feel like
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: I like the value of them winning the North better
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: because that division is just going to beat up on
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: each other that it. I almost think that that's where
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: the value is.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: To take it that way.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: They could go over ten and a half and not
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: win the division, though that is it very possible.
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: They could also not win ten and a half games
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: and win the division.
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: I just feel like the division is gonna be so
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: good like it was last year that.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know get you got to get ten to
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: win the division. I don't want what's the number on that?
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: You probably get plus money on them to win the division?
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Are they playing.
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: Period?
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: I know? Yeah. I mean the ten and a half
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: is juice too, so you're having to pay up for it.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I think if you want the if you want the
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: nicer payout, I think the division odds. The problem is
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: is that now you have to worry where you're betting
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: into the Lions. You're just worried about what the Lions
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: are doing. When you're betting into the division, you're worried
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: about what the Packers are doing in that.
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but I can talk you into that right now.
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: Are you a Jordan Love truther?
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: I think he's good. Yeah, I would. I don't know.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm like pounding the table for Jordan Love,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: but I would be more on the Jordan Love camp
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: than again.
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: The Vikings are a no.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: And then the other option is the Bears, who have
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: the toughest schedule in the NFL.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, but the Bears are also really good.
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: They are, but how many No, I was gonna say.
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: My whole point was literally I'm gonna take the Bears
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: under because truly, there's I think is are they also
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: ten and a half? How many wins can he pull
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: out from his ass the way that he did last year?
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: That will not happen again, especially with a schedule.
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: It's an absolute gauntlet like this.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: All right, Jill, what are you looking at? What's the
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: overyear smash?
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: And I'm going the other way. The Vikings to make
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: the playoffs is awesome value right now at plus one seventy.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: I love the roster on the offensive side of the ball.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: We think of how bad the Vikings were last year
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: because JJ McCarthy was just an absolute zero. At quarterback,
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: Kyler Murray should be an instant upgrade. And when you
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: look at their skill position group, I'll put it up
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: against the Lions. They might be the best in the NFL.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: With Jefferson Addison, they added Jawon Jennings. The running back
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: system is their offensive line is improving. But the one
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: thing that I like as well, is that they really
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: only have to play true two true outdoor games, like
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: pretty much they have to play the Patriots in Week
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: fourteen and.
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: Then weather handicappers.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Well, and the thing is for me, those two teams,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: I don't think the Patriots are going to be where
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: they need to be by Week fourteen. Jets I have
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: no faith in. So both of those teams could be
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: disasters by week fourteen. And low key like if you
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: look at the second half of the season, like they
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: finished on a five game win streak, like they beat
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: the Lions both times last year with JJ McCarthy and
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys who were both in line to get wildcard
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: spots had they not lost those games. So for me,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: in that division, the Vikings are the ones to me
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: who are showing the most value at to make the playoffs.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: You can get that around plus one seventy at DraftKings.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: You know, I will say this, I think that this
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: case for Minnesota, I'm with you. I think Minnesota could
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: be that surprise team this year. Kyler Murray finally with
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: a good quarterback, whisperer type of coach and the weapons
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: that he's got. Well, just JJ was a disaster, but
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: I think Kyler Murray's a really good quarterback. Whin he's
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: on the field, it's a health issue. And Kevin O'Connell
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: has he has enough of a resume.
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: It's a issue. We brought Sam Darnell.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: Back to life. Come on, we got to give the
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: guy some credit. But I think that to your point this,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: if you love the Lions and you think this, the
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Vikings are sneaky. Not every one of this divisions getting
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: to ten wins, and this points in the direction of
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: a Bears under, especially when you look at how difficult
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: their schedule is. Toughest schedule in the NFL from a
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: opponent win percentage perspective at fifty five percent. Let's go
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the other direction. Let's smash an under. For me, it's
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. This team overachieved last season, especially
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: when you consider the injuries that they dealt with. Their
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: schedule from a difficulty perspective is middle of the road.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: But they still play in the NFC West. It's another
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: division that's just a gauntlet, so that's tough on its own,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: and they could be coasting to and over and then
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: not win a game until Week eighteen. They have a
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: stretch of Seahawks giants who expect to be decent Rams Chargers,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Chiefs Eagles. Under ten and a half wins is a
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: best bet type for me on the San Francisco forty
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: nine Ers, Kendra, what are you looking at?
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna smash the under on the Rams.
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: I want to love them, but I think that their
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: schedules too tough. I think that Matt Stafford is old
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: and injury prone and has been dealing with a back
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: for a very long time, and they wasted a pick
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: in ty Simpson and when they could have had, you know,
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: someone to help make that team better. DeVante Adams is
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: getting old, puk Nakua is distracted and kind of an
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: a hole.
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: So like, I just.
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: Too many, too many problems on this offense, and I
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: don't think that even this defense can bail them out
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: against the schedule that is just their division is insane and.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: The start to their schedule is tough.
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: They get I just don't know if Matt Stafford can
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: play an entire season. Last year was your year, and
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: last year was it I'm.
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: Sorry it was.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: I mean he's an aging quarterback that's had back issues,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: So taking it under, I don't think anybody should stand
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: too far post to that the start of their schedule.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: This is where I like to look. If I'm going
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: to bet an under, I want it to be ugly
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: quickly preferably, or either quick or ugly late where you're
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: just gonna hit a wall, like with San Francisco. But
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: they play the Rams, the Giants at Denver, at Philadelphia,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: and then home against the Buffalo Bills. They could be
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: looking at a record that surprises a lot of people
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: very early on into the season. Jill, what are you
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: looking at? We're slamming unders here in the NFC.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: I'm with Kendrick on the Rams. That was the thing
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: is like four of those five games in prime time,
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: and then the Eagles in Week four, like it's such
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: a brutal opening month, and then then they cut their
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: by and it's just a gauntlet the entire way. Also, Kendra,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much of the broadcast you watched
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: last night. Butt McVeigh was on the schedule release show
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: and they asked him about Ty Simpson. He completely just deferred.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: He's like, well, all the rookies are getting prepped, you know.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: He didn't actually say his name. I just want to
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: know if that's that has to be what I sent
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: my conclusion. But it was just like, wow, you can't
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: even just mention. You don't even say ty Simpson's name.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: As Peter Scheger says it back, He's like Voldemort, Like literally, Evan,
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: what about you?
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: I just don't know. So every year there's a team
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: with a really low win total that wins even fewer
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: games than their win total. I feel like that's always
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: the fun one that everyone forgets. They end up with
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: two or three wins, you end up catching your ticket,
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: noizes it. I just feel like that has to be Arizona.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: I just don't know how with their division, with the
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: fact that the teams that they face throughout the entire season,
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: like some of the numbers are just it's incredible. Like
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: their average win total they face is nine point three.
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: It's the highest in history like ever. Now, obviously we've
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: moved to a higher schedule within the last five years,
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: but the number is still the highest within that distance.
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: I mean again, week one, they're like an eleven point
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: dog to the Chargers, which is going to be very
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: similar to what the lines are going to kind of
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: look like all season. Also, on top of all those
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: things fourth worst net rest. So not only is the
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: schedule ridiculous, but the schedule also did them no luck.
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: So there's like all these things is just ridiculous. They
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: also think about this one. This one's crazy. They face
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: seven different opponents with a double digit win total across
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: ten separate matchups. They face an average team of forty
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: seven to one in Super Bowl futures. If you want
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: a comparison, the Bengals face a ninety three to one
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: on average. So, I mean, it's just incredible. How many
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: teams and how many bad games Arizona ass So I
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: just feel like they're going to start bad and it's
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: going to be a easier ticket than most.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Or how bad they're supposed to be. Worst roster in
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Perhaps them in Miami are duking it out
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: for that. Both have win totals of.
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: Having a great time.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Oh it's so. I mean, honestly, I prefer this as
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: somebody who was.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: On the Dolphins schedule. We'll get that to an AFC episode.
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: We'll get there, we'll get there.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Let's not jump ahead, gnjaven Now that breakdown will be fast.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: The fact that you have the Dolphins and the Cardinals
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: have something in common. They're both going to be terrible
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: this year, and they're both in the bottom three in
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: terms of scheduled difficulty. Last year, I went back and
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: looked at the seven toughest schedules based on the opponent
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: win percentage from the year prior, the seven toughest schedules
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: going into the season. So if you're making preseason bets,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: those teams went five and two to the under on
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: their win totals. So if you're just looking for how
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: can I place a winning wager before the season starts,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: look at the toughest schedules in the and I arbitrarily
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: picked seven just because those just my cut off line.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: But pick the toughest schedules in the NFL and hammer
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: the under. Historically, Evan, does that sort of trend hold up?
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: And if you are looking at betting unders, are you
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: trying to bet unders, like you said, with bad teams
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: that could be even worse than expected, or for teams
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: that maybe over achieved the year prior that also have
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: a tough schedule like Chicago.
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, opponent win percentage in the year prior has just
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: been outweighed. And like people have done studies, I've looked
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: at it like it just doesn't matter. The other stuff
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: that tends to matter when you try to project going
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: forward is like the win total things the futures like
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: those more projection prices than previous looking back prices tend
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: to two better when looking forward. The thing that I
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: thought is interesting and you can see it. I have
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: an article up on the side right now that has
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: way too much information in it. But one of the
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: pieces of information is the like trigger games, which is
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: like negative and positive triggers, like if you have a
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: bad rest situation or a bad time zone change, or
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: like you have to play an altitude in Denver, or
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: there's certain spots that tend to weigh more than others.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: I think that is what impacts his schedule, especially when
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: you're weighed like first eight weeks, second eight weeks, you know,
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: things of that nature. That's what I tend to look
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: at more.
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: The Cardinals are going to be ten times better than
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: the Dolphins. That's all I have to say.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: I really know, many times ten times better that a
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: lot though.
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: I think the Cardinals are a lot better than the Dolphins,
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: and I do think that their schedule sucks and their
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: quarterback is a huge question Mark, but their roster really
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: isn't that bad.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: The only pushback I would say about the Cardinals and
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: this is something that we would do all for the
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: second half of the year, especially with Jacoby Brissett, is
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: you bet the over in the game at halftime. They
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: will get down by like twenty one points and they
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: will storm back. Tray McBride will get spam with targets.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you it work like am I a love?
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: I think it's going to be Carson Beck's team. I'm
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: not even kidding you guys.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Another reason. I'm just gonna he's going to be a
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: pick six specialist.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Jacobe Gardner minshoes right now, back up's fourth string all right,
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: I don't.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: Even know, man. The preseason is going to be lit
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: in there is going to be so good before we
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: get to we're going to plant the flag for a
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: an NFC bet. In a moment, I saw in the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: notes that Kendrick's all excited about the New Orleans Saints
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: and they all was okay, So I was looking at
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: their schedule. I think the Saints are an interesting topic
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: here because they could be a darling to win a
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: really bad or at least a very unpredictable division in
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: the NFC South. They start the year at Detroit and
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore. I'd be hard pressed to find a tougher
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: start to the schedule than that on the road against
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: two playoff teams that have win totals around ten and
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: a half eleven and a half. So I think the Saints,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: it's not not far fetched to believe that they're going
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: to start the season zero and two. And if you
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: want to bet anything Saints, you wait until after the
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: second week of the season.
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: Are you with me on that great point? I put
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: them in our notes because.
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: As we know, my darlings last year were the Rams
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: and the p words my Carolina Panthers at this point
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: in the season. This was around when I got in
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: on the Panthers. I went in and looked at it
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: last night from my bed slips. I got them to
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: win the division plus four to twenty five, and sure
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: they were probably what I would consider a similar situation
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: to the Saints this year.
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: Because the Panthers won the division.
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: I don't think that they're going to get that much better,
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: but I don't think that they're going to be that
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: much worse. It's Tampa Bays to lose. And the Falcons
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: also a huge question mark. Like on paper, I think
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: that the Saints are probably the fourth best team in
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: this division right now, but people have expectations for what
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: they saw Tyler Schuck do last year. The fact that
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: I got the Panthers at four to twenty five at
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: this point last year and this is two sixty five
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: for them to win the division absolutely not.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Kind of like a if you just want to bet
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: money line in one of the first two games, because
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: if they start one and one, it's gonna be that's
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of the most impressive one in one
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: records in the NFL.
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: Also love them.
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: I swear to god, every show, every thing that I
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: consumed in the last twenty four hours. I don't know, Joe,
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: how you feel or what you consume because I saw
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: you that, or I like you've said that you watched
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: everything last night. But it feels like everybody loves them,
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: and it's just I can't at this price get in
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: on it.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: No, And the difference between one and four in that
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: division is very marginal. And again we don't forget like
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: the Bucks were pretty much it was like you said,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: they were pretty much set to win that division and
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: then the Panthers kind of just snuck in there right
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: there at the end. Yeah, I'm not expecting the Panthers
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: to just improve, and in fact, I'm thinking the Bucks
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: are probably going to regress, just because even though Mike
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: Evans obviously is in his thirties, it's just the type
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: of weapon that he provided on offense for Baker Mayfield,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: and you saw it when he was out in games last.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Year of how their offense just had.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Difficulty making big plays and explosive plays. I know that
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: Abuka and Mecca Buka is really good and he'll probably
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: improve as well, but that's such a huge loss for
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: them on offense that I just think that the Bucks
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: are going to progress, the Panthers are kin to kind
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: of stay where they are.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: I'm not a.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: Too a believer at all, So yeah, it's pretty much, Uh,
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Panthers are nothing, or say, a.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Kind of washed.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: Baker's kind of washed. I'm gonna be the first one
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: to say it. You can clip this if you want to.
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: I think Baker's washed. And on top of that, it
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: didn't just go to the final week of the year
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: because the Panthers were crawling back into it if like
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: there were two things that very realistically could have happened,
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: the Atlanta Falcons could have won that division. So I
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: just it's not enough value. No way, no how, I
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: can't get there.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we could see it curlier of that for now.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the plus four to fifty on the Falcons. Okay,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: moving on, let's get to our Draftking segment this week.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Are way too early, way too early pick in the NFC,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: So we can go in any direction that we want
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: for our Plant the Flag in the NFC presented by DraftKings.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: If you want to go season long, if you want
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: to go week one. I have a feeling Evan and
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I because we're just so focused. The microscope is on
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: week one in the NFL season that we're going to
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: look in that direction. I know, I am. Let's start
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: with our guests, Jill Gallantz. What are we looking at
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Plant the Flag in the NFC.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm taking the Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: They finished eight and nine with arguably the worst quarterback
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: situation in the NFL last year, and they've gotten better.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Their skill position group is better. I would put that
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: up against any team in the NFL I think the
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings in the NFC will get a wildcard spot.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: I love it. I think they're going to be mighty
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: feisty and a lot of fun this year. Evan, what
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: are we looking at?
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah? So I'm gonna do the Week one thing. I
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: like the Lions and the Saints to go over forty eight.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: I did it at minus one twenty about forty eight
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: and a half. Right now, I will say this, and
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm even gonna say this, but there
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: is a book out there that has a fifty one
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: and I did take the under for like a tenth
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: of the unit because I wanted a middle six months
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: before we didn't even play games or whatever the heck
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: it is.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: We're in May and he's already arving.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: I did one small, small, small guy because I just
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: couldn't help it. But I like over forty eight.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: All right, Kendra, what are we looking at?
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: Okay?
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: So I'm going right back into the fire and I'm
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: going to say that the Seattle Seahawks are going to
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: beat the absolute crap out of the Patriots Week one.
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: I would say, though, wait for the AJ.
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: Brown signing, because I think he is worth at least
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: a point. It's currently three and a half. When that
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: goes down, you smash Seattle. I think the Patriots are
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: like five and five and Week one over the last
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: ten years. Not a good Week one performer. They lost
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: to the Raiders Week one of last season. If anyone remembers,
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: they have way too much crap going on, so many distractions,
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: I expect them to probably well, we'll get to the Patriots,
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: but I'm gonna go Seattle a week one. Wait for
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: the aj Brown thing. I think it's gonna I think
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: that this is gonna be bad.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Oh, I am having visions of Evan's Week one primer
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl winner at Home to Me seasons.
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: Having Smash No Me, having flashbacks to being at Hooters
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: and Saugust, Massachusetts for the Super Bowl and it being
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: so quiet in the third quarter that I could hear
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: them washing.
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: The dishes in the back. Baby, I might run a
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: back at Hooters.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Oh. That was not not a ringing endorsement for the
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: vibe at Hooters.
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: It was I personally, as a certified hater, I loved it.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Evan. That is a you don't have to pull the
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: exact numbers, but that is a trend isn't it. You
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: get the it's more.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: It's more. I mean it kind of runs together. It's
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: a Super Bowl loser, which now is now the same
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: matchup for like the second time in history. So also
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: Seattle at home early season, they're like thirty seven and eight,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: So there's something like that. It's tough.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I might have to I think I'm with Kendra. I
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: might bet that. Now, screw the aj Brown News. I'm
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the I'm gonna go with the Giants
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. Week one Divisional home underdogs
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: hit at an insane rate. It's like seventy eight percent
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: since two thousand and nine. They're the It's sleeper team
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: going into the year, So why not start with a
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: bang plus two and a half on the Giants against
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: the over rated Dallas Cowboy. Sorry jillsund that right. There
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: is our plant the flag for the NFC, presented by
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Draft Kings. The crown is yours special thanks to our
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: producer Gifford Gold, stats hound Evan Abrams, our guest Joe Gallant.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: In the Great Kendram Middleton AFC episode coming up, you
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: can catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: We'll see you and I'm Almo. The Favorites presents it
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: by Draft Kings, where the Crown.
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: It Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 41:39
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