Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 14

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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 14 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Molement of the Action Network. I'm live
0:18
Speaker 1: from my Tommy John home studio and I'm joined as
0:23
Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, Mi Compadre, and
0:26
Speaker 1: my bff Professional Better Simon and Hunter Etro. Simon, Chad,
0:31
Speaker 1: how are we doing, dude? I got to share with
0:34
Speaker 1: you my past seventeen eighteen twenty hours, uh, because it's
0:42
Speaker 1: truly insane. I got a buddy. His name is Kenny Dictor.
0:47
Speaker 1: Kenny is a serial, brilliant, enthusiastic, force of nature entrepreneur
0:55
Speaker 1: who is hyper connected in sports media business. He started
1:00
Speaker 1: a company called Wheels Up, the private jet company. Right, So,
1:04
Speaker 1: I've gotten to know Kenny a little bit over the
1:07
Speaker 1: past couple of years. He's starting a new business called
1:09
Speaker 1: Real SLX, and it's all about taking his superpower, which
1:13
Speaker 1: is creating experiences and getting people involved in these once
1:20
Speaker 1: in a lifetime experience at really big events. The best
1:23
Speaker 1: experiences are the best experiences, and so you know, he
1:26
Speaker 1: did something at the Super Bowl last year with Reyo's
1:28
Speaker 1: probably one of the best Super Bowl events I've ever
1:32
Speaker 1: been to Simon, You and I are going to be
1:33
Speaker 1: doing stuff there this year at the Super Bowl. So
1:36
Speaker 1: he called me on Monday and he says, I got
1:41
Speaker 1: tickets to the Auburn duke game Wednesday night, Auburn number two,
1:46
Speaker 1: duke number nine, Cooper Flag all that We're going to
1:51
Speaker 1: fly down private Wednesday afternoon. We're going to have dinner,
1:57
Speaker 1: we're going to go to the game. We'll fly back
1:59
Speaker 1: that night. How do you say no to that?
2:02
Speaker 2: Right?
2:02
Speaker 1: Like in a million years, when would I be like, Yeah,
2:06
Speaker 1: I'm going to go down to Durham, North Carolina the
2:09
Speaker 1: day before show and I'm gonna, you know, fly private,
2:15
Speaker 1: go to dinner, and come back that night. But of
2:18
Speaker 1: course I said yes, you can't not say yes to that. Dude,
2:23
Speaker 1: flew down we land, we go to go to dinner,
2:26
Speaker 1: go to this place called Nana's in Durham, which was ridiculous,
2:32
Speaker 1: and then we're at the game. They were about eight
2:33
Speaker 1: of us. Kenny had a bunch of tickets and a
2:35
Speaker 1: bunch of guys that I know and like a lot
2:37
Speaker 1: some guys who I've met through Kenny who worked with Kenny,
2:40
Speaker 1: a buddy of mine, namely Fitting who I used to
2:42
Speaker 1: work with the ESPN. Now everyone's content at WWE. The
2:46
Speaker 1: tickets were no joke. First row, baseline, under the basket,
2:53
Speaker 1: like feet on the floor, talking to the ref during
2:57
Speaker 1: the breaks. My kids sending me pictures of him seeing
3:03
Speaker 1: me on TV because every time a team is scoring,
3:08
Speaker 1: the camera crosses my face. It was truly insane and
3:14
Speaker 1: the game was off the hook. Like I've been to
3:17
Speaker 1: Cameron before, it's an incredible experience. I went to Duke
3:21
Speaker 1: UNC a couple of years ago with my younger son
3:25
Speaker 1: and it was loud and crazy, and the Cameron crazies
3:28
Speaker 1: really are truly insane, and it's a must do experience
3:34
Speaker 1: for sports fans. I was sitting next to this guy
3:37
Speaker 1: who's had these tickets for thirty years. He's a beer
3:40
Speaker 1: distributor who supplies Cameron and the football stadium. He was
3:46
Speaker 1: saying that that game last night was the loudest game
3:48
Speaker 1: he's ever heard. It was ear splitting, how insane it was.
3:54
Speaker 1: Duke Winn's great game. Get back on the plane at midnight, No,
3:58
Speaker 1: get back on the plane at twelve forty five. I've
4:01
Speaker 1: land in Westchester to get home at four am. Now
4:04
Speaker 1: we're doing the show it was. It was once in
4:08
Speaker 1: a lifetime amazing. Chad Millman is proud of himself.
4:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, great game, cool night. I'm going to tell of
4:15
Speaker 2: a story.
4:16
Speaker 1: Still flying a little bit. But you know what, Simon,
4:20
Speaker 1: no work, no perks. We got to get to work
4:23
Speaker 1: because we got a lot to do today. As a reminder,
4:28
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six y
4:31
Speaker 1: five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get
4:34
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets when you
4:36
Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorite, deposit
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Speaker 1: ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
4:47
Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet
4:55
Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older and
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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
5:08
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa, terms,
5:12
Speaker 1: conditions restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during the season.
5:16
Speaker 1: We do like to hear are the wise guys are
5:18
Speaker 1: responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are
5:23
Speaker 1: the Lanser movement. Based in our conversations, the pros feel
5:27
Speaker 1: compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do
5:32
Speaker 1: shark calls.
5:35
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.
5:39
Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe.
5:42
Speaker 3: What you do man?
5:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's start off with a Thursday game shocked to No.
5:48
Speaker 2: One professionals like Green Bay. We've seen now that a
5:51
Speaker 2: couple books have moved into three. Then they get hit
5:53
Speaker 2: by other professionals. You bump it right back up to
5:55
Speaker 2: three and a half. So it's obviously a game that's split,
5:59
Speaker 2: but so far, to me, it seems like it's more
6:01
Speaker 2: so every probably talked to likexus green Bay side for
6:04
Speaker 2: exactly what we've talked about. So so unfortunately, it's another
6:07
Speaker 2: Thursday we love and I feel like we're gonna nail.
6:10
Speaker 2: Can't put in the contest, So just just another good line.
6:13
Speaker 2: Though it's a three and a half, I still think
6:15
Speaker 2: that's the key there. Let's go to a game that
6:18
Speaker 2: you loved. I loved, and now we've seen this number
6:20
Speaker 2: move a ton, right this Minnesota game. Every guy I
6:23
Speaker 2: talked to for good reason likes the Vikings for what
6:26
Speaker 2: we really talked about, right, it's it's a bad match
6:29
Speaker 2: up for Kirk in that offense. We've seen now too.
6:33
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold as bad as he was right for those
6:37
Speaker 2: couple of weeks stretches, he's kind of go into a
6:39
Speaker 2: little bit of a groove. Yeah, I mean he seems
6:41
Speaker 2: like he's comfortable again. So not shocking that that number
6:44
Speaker 2: util I gave it out. I think at five. It's
6:46
Speaker 2: not the six at a lot of books. So, uh,
6:48
Speaker 2: that's a game we'll definitely most likely end up with
6:50
Speaker 2: the contest. Yeah. The the game that really jumped out
6:54
Speaker 2: to me was just because we were at the time
6:56
Speaker 2: on the other side was that Chiefs game. Every probably
6:58
Speaker 2: talked to you right now really likes the chief side. It's
7:01
Speaker 2: looking more and more like the Chargers is kind of
7:03
Speaker 2: the Joe public side, Which isn't that shocking right now?
7:06
Speaker 2: Mean you are on the public side on that Bear side.
7:08
Speaker 2: Most pros I talk to have our view of it
7:10
Speaker 2: where this is a spot to take this forty nine
7:13
Speaker 2: Ers team. So interesting here you're reviewing this game now,
7:16
Speaker 2: there were a couple of days later another one that
7:18
Speaker 2: we knew that pros would beyond the Jets, mean chat,
7:21
Speaker 2: I don't think it changes my opinion. I still like Miami.
7:23
Speaker 2: I think they're just just keep on chasing that same
7:26
Speaker 2: thing with this Jets team every week.
7:28
Speaker 1: Dude, I got so many I can't wait to talk
7:31
Speaker 1: about that game.
7:32
Speaker 2: And then obviously a game I love. The professionals, though,
7:35
Speaker 2: were pretty split on it. That Cleveland Brown Pittsburgh game.
7:38
Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, babe, let's dance. There's still
7:42
Speaker 2: a one book in Jersey or that has a seven,
7:44
Speaker 2: which is pretty shocking. I really thought this would be
7:46
Speaker 2: six by today. But we get why they like Pittsburgh.
7:49
Speaker 2: No one's denying Pittsburgh is a much better team, and
7:52
Speaker 2: they are at home against that Cleveland team with an
7:53
Speaker 2: inconsistent quarterback. But my argument to them is just this
7:56
Speaker 2: number is way too big for this type of divisional matchup.
7:59
Speaker 2: But I don't know, if you watch that AFC Hard Knocks,
8:01
Speaker 2: this is like the perfect division to do the hard
8:03
Speaker 2: knocks on, Like it's just all of it was just
8:05
Speaker 2: it's just so football, like everything about it was so football,
8:09
Speaker 2: just talking about how you kind of throw the records
8:10
Speaker 2: out in these teams and just are so familiar with
8:12
Speaker 2: each other. So yeah, it's been a good year to
8:14
Speaker 2: back the dog in this division. I think the pros
8:17
Speaker 2: are looking at this one are saying, well, it's got
8:19
Speaker 2: to go the other way at some point. The favorites
8:21
Speaker 2: can't all not cover in this division this whole year.
8:23
Speaker 2: So a pretty interesting game there. And the last one aside,
8:28
Speaker 2: I like, I like the Bills that we knew that
8:30
Speaker 2: was gonna be heavy public side. It's interesting to hear
8:32
Speaker 2: how many pros like the Rams here and you know,
8:36
Speaker 2: talk to a couple of guys I really respect. They
8:38
Speaker 2: went pretty heavy on the Rams of four and a half.
8:41
Speaker 2: The books that took that money moved it to three
8:43
Speaker 2: and a half. Now some other you know, Bills money
8:46
Speaker 2: has come back in a couple of those books went
8:47
Speaker 2: back to forth. So uh yeah, really really split weeked
8:50
Speaker 2: with a couple of these games. Chat what some pros
8:53
Speaker 2: just are betting the numbers here and other ones are
8:54
Speaker 2: just taking the value and they can on certain dogs.
8:57
Speaker 1: All right, Well, good, I'm glad because all these games
8:59
Speaker 1: are the ones that we want to touch on, and
9:04
Speaker 1: you know when we get for me, especially when we
9:06
Speaker 1: get into Wednesdays and do a little more research. The
9:09
Speaker 1: Bills Rams game definitely stuck out, Chiefs Chargers definitely stuck
9:15
Speaker 1: out on second thoughts, especially deep into some research yesterday
9:19
Speaker 1: and then early this morning. One final order of business
9:24
Speaker 1: before we get into the games. Reminder, our latest Free
9:29
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast Watch Party is happening. Got to RSVP folks Thursday,
9:37
Speaker 1: December twelfth, one week from today. We're gonna be at
9:40
Speaker 1: the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. We're gonna do
9:45
Speaker 1: free drinks. We're gonna do like a mini show, and
9:49
Speaker 1: so you know, it's not a show that we're gonna
9:50
Speaker 1: be able to post. Simon and I are basically going
9:52
Speaker 1: to do what we do in the Favorites. We're gonna
9:55
Speaker 1: do it live. Matt Mitchell's going to be there. Evan
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Speaker 1: Abrams is going to be there. We have so much
9:59
Speaker 1: frequenc swag to give away, favorite favorite swag, Tommy John swag.
10:04
Speaker 1: You know we love the Tommy John swag. It's going
10:07
Speaker 1: to be leading into the Thursday night football game between
10:09
Speaker 1: the Rams and the Niners. We're gonna sweat together. We're
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Speaker 1: Please RSVP to the event. Check out the link in
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Speaker 1: the podcast or YouTube episode description. RSVPs are pouring in.
10:22
Speaker 2: Don't delay, sharpen our sword for the battle.
10:25
Speaker 1: Let's get Roland Simon. I'm calling it right now, Miami
10:30
Speaker 1: minus six. We're in the foxhole.
10:32
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
10:34
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
10:37
Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
10:38
Speaker 1: Clearly we're in the foxhole. Taking the Dolphins as six
10:42
Speaker 1: point favorites. This is the first time that the Jets
10:46
Speaker 1: have been underdogs since they played the Bills. I think
10:50
Speaker 1: it was Week six in the middle of October that
10:54
Speaker 1: included closing his favorites against Houston, Arizona, Pittsburgh. That game
11:01
Speaker 1: against Buffalo, they the money was pouring in on the Jets.
11:04
Speaker 1: They had closed as only one and a half point
11:07
Speaker 1: dogs against the Bills. I don't get it, like it's
11:13
Speaker 1: a bad team with an old quarterback who's a mobile
11:16
Speaker 1: who now is going on you know McAfee and saying
11:19
Speaker 1: we don't have anything to prove, as if to say
11:22
Speaker 1: I can't be held accountable for the losses. I'm not
11:24
Speaker 1: doing it for you guys, you're a professional better. What
11:30
Speaker 1: is wrong with your brethren?
11:33
Speaker 2: Well, it is also model based, so it's the model
11:36
Speaker 2: is not taken account that, like you just said, everything
11:39
Speaker 2: is just so negative in that building right now, and
11:42
Speaker 2: it shows up in the games, right A lot of
11:44
Speaker 2: those games, you know, even when they have a lead,
11:46
Speaker 2: they've been falling apart. And it's just not the Rogers
11:49
Speaker 2: of old, like we talked about, just he's incredibly inconsistent,
11:53
Speaker 2: and I think their view of it is just that
11:57
Speaker 2: this team every week is undervalued because of that their model,
12:00
Speaker 2: and that you know, I'll be in first to a minute,
12:03
Speaker 2: I got burned by this team coming into the season.
12:05
Speaker 2: I overrated them simply because of the model, Like I
12:09
Speaker 2: had a high grade on them. And you know, it
12:12
Speaker 2: also screwed me with the forty nine ers because the
12:14
Speaker 2: forty niners just rolled them week one. It made me
12:16
Speaker 2: in turn overright the forty nine ers and think, well,
12:20
Speaker 2: this team and the Jets, they'll bounce back against these
12:23
Speaker 2: bad teams, and they kind of did, and it made
12:25
Speaker 2: me think, Okay, this is who I thought they were
12:26
Speaker 2: going to be. And then they fell off a total cliff, right.
12:29
Speaker 2: I mean they literally have three wins at this point,
12:30
Speaker 2: like you just said. So I think that's the issue,
12:33
Speaker 2: chat is that, you know, the professionals have loved them
12:36
Speaker 2: all year, They've lost a ton of money, and they're
12:38
Speaker 2: kind of chasing that money. It seems like to me.
12:40
Speaker 2: That's that's my view of it, because I'm with you.
12:42
Speaker 2: I don't really understand the betting here and the market,
12:45
Speaker 2: but it's unfortunate that the books haven't shifted. Like I said,
12:48
Speaker 2: five and a half would have been amazing if they
12:51
Speaker 2: would just would have gave us that number. But it
12:52
Speaker 2: seems like they're just gonna hold you at this six
12:55
Speaker 2: right now with Miami. So I'm with you. I love
12:58
Speaker 2: this match of Miami to an at home in this
13:00
Speaker 2: matchup against a defense that has struggle against the pass,
13:04
Speaker 2: and they've struggled against the run. That's what Miami wants
13:06
Speaker 2: to do as well. They love to run the ball.
13:07
Speaker 2: That just opens up everything obviously downfield for the pass.
13:10
Speaker 2: And we've talked about we've seen Miami now since two
13:12
Speaker 2: has been back, just beat up on these bad teams
13:14
Speaker 2: and even good teams. Right, They've held into some games
13:17
Speaker 2: like that. I wish I had taken more from that
13:19
Speaker 2: Bills game. When Tua drove down the field, it was
13:21
Speaker 2: like that was a big moment for him on the
13:23
Speaker 2: road against that Bills team that didn't get enough credit
13:25
Speaker 2: for it. And I mean we've seen they're just a
13:28
Speaker 2: different team they were earlier in the year. So I'm
13:31
Speaker 2: loving this as a Fox. So I just like to
13:33
Speaker 2: be on the Jets in the spot, I mean the Miami.
13:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, so since firing Robert Sala, the Jests are thirty
13:38
Speaker 1: first in points allowed per possession their last and EPA
13:43
Speaker 1: per play. Sauce Gardner might not play this weekend, not
13:48
Speaker 1: like he tackles when he does play. That team is
13:52
Speaker 1: in such disarraying. Look, we're talking about it so much
13:54
Speaker 1: we just may get burned. But too in this spot,
13:59
Speaker 1: I mentioned this on Tuesday, Miami and Tua beat up
14:03
Speaker 1: on bad teams as favorites at home seven and one.
14:07
Speaker 1: The Jets are a bad team, folks, There's just no
14:10
Speaker 1: two ways about it. So the big money will pour
14:13
Speaker 1: in on the Jets on Sunday. We've seen it every
14:17
Speaker 1: single Sunday for the reasons. Someone just said, you make
14:20
Speaker 1: a great point. We've talked about this a lot on
14:22
Speaker 1: the show, like rankings are hard to completely change in
14:29
Speaker 1: the middle of a season, right, it's gonna happen. It's
14:33
Speaker 1: like you tightrate off of drugs, right, Like you can't
14:35
Speaker 1: just go from fifty milligrams to zero milligrams. You gotta
14:38
Speaker 1: go from fifty to forty to thirty to twenty to ten.
14:41
Speaker 1: Like that's what happens with these rankings, and no one
14:46
Speaker 1: can go fast enough to catch up with how bad
14:49
Speaker 1: and sort of discombobulated the New York Jets are so.
14:53
Speaker 2: Well, the fear is you overadjust Like obviously we talked
14:56
Speaker 2: about that when we took a beating back in the
15:00
Speaker 2: Panthers early in the year. But you're seeing why because
15:04
Speaker 2: of what this team can be when Bryce Young is
15:06
Speaker 2: what I thought he was going to be coming out
15:08
Speaker 2: of the season, which is an open offense that had
15:10
Speaker 2: been a much better team that The biggest issue I've
15:13
Speaker 2: had definitely personally this season has just been the adjustments
15:17
Speaker 2: to these bad teams are really bad. Right. There's just
15:20
Speaker 2: some really poor coaching right now in the NFL, and
15:23
Speaker 2: not just enough to injuries. Right, This Carolina team we
15:26
Speaker 2: should have justin were in the year when they lost
15:28
Speaker 2: a lot of their defense, Like they had major injuries
15:30
Speaker 2: to their defense and I hadn't adjust to it. So
15:32
Speaker 2: there are things like that. But like I said, you
15:34
Speaker 2: don't want to overadjust because we would have missed these
15:36
Speaker 2: last three weeks on this Panthers team, right, we would
15:38
Speaker 2: have totally been out on them if I had over
15:40
Speaker 2: adjusted their number and underrated the value. So the same
15:43
Speaker 2: thing is going to hear with this Jets team. I
15:44
Speaker 2: just think guys are stubborn dug in on the exact
15:47
Speaker 2: number they have with this team.
15:49
Speaker 1: Well, you mentioned Carolina. Carolina is a twelve and a
15:51
Speaker 1: half point dog at Philly. Like it's an interesting week
15:56
Speaker 1: for us. I feel like there are a couple of
15:57
Speaker 1: games and we're going to talk about the other ones
16:01
Speaker 1: in years past. They are auto plays, big number against
16:06
Speaker 1: a super hype team, a team that we've been loving
16:09
Speaker 1: all year. Caroline is twelve and a half at Philly,
16:12
Speaker 1: And on Tuesday we talked about it, and we liked Philly,
16:15
Speaker 1: we liked Carolina like or at least we're leaning that way,
16:19
Speaker 1: but we didn't go all in. We didn't like immediately
16:22
Speaker 1: bet it. You didn't call it assigmon says the number
16:24
Speaker 1: had come down a little bit. There are some trends
16:27
Speaker 1: that's sort of backfading the hot team here, but I
16:34
Speaker 1: can't get there. Like as much as we love how
16:37
Speaker 1: Bryce Young has improved, like this is not the Saints
16:41
Speaker 1: or the Boxer, even the Chiefs, Like with an underperforming secondary,
16:45
Speaker 1: an undermanned offense, and a terrible right tackle and left tackle,
16:51
Speaker 1: like namely a defense you'd like to face less than
16:55
Speaker 1: the Eagles right now. Jalen Carter and Milton Williams are
16:58
Speaker 1: Pro Football focuses third and fourth rated defensive tackles rushing
17:02
Speaker 1: the passer. Zach Bond the linebacker. He's the fifth highest
17:07
Speaker 1: rated player in coverage, not amongst the linebackers, amongst all players,
17:15
Speaker 1: and he's a freaking linebacker. Like the Eagles are given
17:18
Speaker 1: up six point one eight yards per pass attempt, and
17:24
Speaker 1: then the Panthers defense, while it's getting healthier, it's really
17:27
Speaker 1: just terrible against the run, you know, basically bottom three.
17:32
Speaker 1: And that's being generous. Like if you average every overall number,
17:35
Speaker 1: Saquon could get two thousand yards for the season. By
17:39
Speaker 1: the end of this game, he could have five hundred yards.
17:41
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I think we want to bet
17:44
Speaker 1: the Panthers based on the number, but I feel like
17:48
Speaker 1: we're going to eat it.
17:50
Speaker 2: That's very like just the off the field stuff though,
17:55
Speaker 2: like the human side of it, or where this is
17:57
Speaker 2: a game where they just played the Ravens. Now they're
18:00
Speaker 2: playing against a three and nine Panthers team at home
18:02
Speaker 2: a week before they go and play a Pittsburgh team,
18:06
Speaker 2: Like this is such an in between game where it's
18:08
Speaker 2: like spot it really is. It doesn't get more trapped
18:11
Speaker 2: than this. That's another really glaring spot where I like it.
18:15
Speaker 2: The reason I didn't really bang your head about this one,
18:17
Speaker 2: it's just because I wanted the thirteen and I've been
18:20
Speaker 2: pissed off, where like the professionals have kind of held
18:22
Speaker 2: it under the thirteen, Like the highest we're getting right
18:24
Speaker 2: now and most books is twelve and a half. Where
18:26
Speaker 2: it's like, you know, no one's taking like you just said,
18:29
Speaker 2: no one's taking Carolina. You think everyone in the world
18:32
Speaker 2: doesn't feel the same as you. The only people I
18:33
Speaker 2: know are obviously professionals taking this Carolina spot. It's just
18:37
Speaker 2: it's such a spot to take them because of the
18:39
Speaker 2: in between and the fact that this offense, like you
18:42
Speaker 2: just said, Okay, they're not the best team obviously defensively,
18:48
Speaker 2: but we've seen it change offensively with the passing game.
18:51
Speaker 2: And you know, as much as I say out great,
18:53
Speaker 2: this Seagos defense is they're young. I mean they had
18:56
Speaker 2: you know, they've had a couple injuries as well to
18:58
Speaker 2: this defenses as well, Iklan Ship, Brandon Graham and a
19:03
Speaker 2: young defense that's feeling themselves right now. Where there were
19:06
Speaker 2: guys open. I don't want to say Lamar lost that
19:08
Speaker 2: game last week, but he did miss open receivers and
19:12
Speaker 2: their kicker. If he had made those kicks, it's a
19:14
Speaker 2: much different game right towards end there, Like the Eagles,
19:16
Speaker 2: you know, they're up fourteen to twelve, and then Justin
19:18
Speaker 2: Tucker missed that field goal the when they should ed
19:20
Speaker 2: up fifteen twelve, and then because you missed it, bank
19:23
Speaker 2: Eagles were down the red zone. Saquon ran it in
19:24
Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, totally different game now, right it
19:27
Speaker 2: was twenty one to twelve at that point. So I
19:30
Speaker 2: do think this Eagles team is just a little overrated
19:32
Speaker 2: right now, where it's like, yeah, are they very good?
19:35
Speaker 2: Are they should they be said to be the best
19:37
Speaker 2: team in NFC? Right now. Yeah, because they're healthy, right,
19:39
Speaker 2: Detroit had so many injuries. I get the respect to him.
19:42
Speaker 2: I just think it's gone through far at this point.
19:43
Speaker 2: That's the whole point for me with this one, where
19:45
Speaker 2: it's like the Stummer should be closer to ten. It's
19:47
Speaker 2: a nice in between spot where you expect them not
19:50
Speaker 2: to overlook this Panthers team, but how can they not? Right,
19:53
Speaker 2: It's the human element of it, where it's like you
19:55
Speaker 2: just took down the big bad wolf of the Ravens,
19:58
Speaker 2: like a team that Lamar only in his whole career,
20:01
Speaker 2: only lost one time to an NFC team, and you
20:03
Speaker 2: smacked them. You're feeling good all week, you're home now
20:06
Speaker 2: against the Panthers. You're not gonna look ahead to Pittsburgh
20:09
Speaker 2: when you know that's literally the last tough game when
20:11
Speaker 2: they're s I mean watching it's tough, obviously, but that
20:14
Speaker 2: really is going to decide their one seed because Detroit here,
20:17
Speaker 2: if they dropped us to Green Ben and they got
20:18
Speaker 2: Buffalo next week really quickly, the Eagles could become this
20:21
Speaker 2: one seed. So I feel like it's a lot to
20:24
Speaker 2: weigh on this young team of this Philadelphia. So for
20:27
Speaker 2: all that chat, that's the only reason I'm like, Okay,
20:29
Speaker 2: maybe I'll commitch you comes Sunday they take this Panthers team.
20:32
Speaker 2: But it's really it's about the number. It's like, if
20:35
Speaker 2: I'm not getting a great number here, Okay, we want
20:37
Speaker 2: we don't have to put it in. But if this
20:39
Speaker 2: is up to thirteen and a half contest Sunday, Chad,
20:41
Speaker 2: I'm gonna probably be an asshole and be like, we
20:43
Speaker 2: got to put this in, blah blah blah. Yeah.
20:45
Speaker 1: But by the way, I feel like the thirteen was
20:49
Speaker 1: the line of demarcation for me, and I'm trying to
20:51
Speaker 1: be really disciplined as we head into the end of
20:54
Speaker 1: the year and not not chase feelings and put them
21:01
Speaker 1: into numbers. Right, we missed the best of the number. Thirteen
21:06
Speaker 1: feels better to me.
21:07
Speaker 2: And we talked about so the number has not burned
21:09
Speaker 2: us this year. The only US are three and Two's. Look,
21:13
Speaker 2: it's been a really weird year where these big numbers
21:15
Speaker 2: have not mattered.
21:16
Speaker 1: Old habits die hard and for.
21:19
Speaker 2: Justin for this season, I agree with you. But for
21:21
Speaker 2: this season it's just been twos and threes that have
21:23
Speaker 2: really matter. Everything else not so much.
21:26
Speaker 1: Look, it's it's funny you say that, Like you can
21:29
Speaker 1: look in the Action app and there's a really cool
21:30
Speaker 1: feature that tells you your sort of performance against the
21:33
Speaker 1: closing line value and your ROI against the closing line value,
21:37
Speaker 1: and like it's it comes into play so infrequently, but
21:42
Speaker 1: you still want it, Like, yeah, you don't want to
21:45
Speaker 1: buy high and sell low. You want to get the
21:47
Speaker 1: best of the number. You want to feel better on
21:48
Speaker 1: Sunday morning. I want to see in the app that
21:50
Speaker 1: I've got it at thirteen and a half and now
21:51
Speaker 1: it's at twelve and a half and all those kinds
21:54
Speaker 1: of things I.
21:54
Speaker 2: Told you, stuper gamling of ass. When you lose a
21:56
Speaker 2: Betty go, well, at least I had the best of
21:57
Speaker 2: the number. It's that's that's the main part of it.
22:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way, I've never said that in my life.
22:03
Speaker 1: When I lose a game, I'm like, are you fucking
22:06
Speaker 1: kidding me? Why did I even care about this number?
22:08
Speaker 1: Why did I like race to bet this to beat
22:11
Speaker 1: the move when it didn't even matter. I don't disagree
22:15
Speaker 1: with anything you're saying. I feel skittish about I think
22:20
Speaker 1: this Eagles team, and I felt this way last week.
22:23
Speaker 1: I think it's on an upward trajectory. I think the
22:25
Speaker 1: way they're playing minimizes their weaknesses, which is really Jalen
22:29
Speaker 1: Hurts as a passer. I think their defensive line is
22:32
Speaker 1: so good that that minimizes the emotional up and down
22:37
Speaker 1: because when you're playing physical, you're playing physical, right, That's
22:39
Speaker 1: not about what happens on the edge. And I think
22:42
Speaker 1: I think skilled players, to me are more inclined to
22:46
Speaker 1: be prone to emotional roller coaster mistakes than players are
22:51
Speaker 1: the defensive line, and their defensive line is just so good.
22:53
Speaker 1: So that's my fear. But look, we'll talk about it
22:56
Speaker 1: on Sunday. We'll see where we land. Atlanta at Minnesota.
23:00
Speaker 1: My exec decision. I did it with clarity and confidence.
23:04
Speaker 1: If I recall, and as you know, as you've said,
23:07
Speaker 1: the wise guys are with me. It's moved up since
23:09
Speaker 1: the show, in fact, as the show is happening at
23:12
Speaker 1: moved from five to five and a half. It is
23:14
Speaker 1: a pros Joe split tickets on the Falcons money on Minnesota.
23:18
Speaker 1: I guess, as you've noted, the public is buying into
23:21
Speaker 1: the very lazy, fascile Kirk Cousins revenge narrative. We disagree, Yeah,
23:31
Speaker 1: we know that it would.
23:32
Speaker 2: Though, it's just it's the lowest of hanging fruit and
23:34
Speaker 2: that's the easiest fruit to grab. So yeah, yeah, this
23:38
Speaker 2: one's shocking to me because I really didn't think it
23:40
Speaker 2: would get back to six, especially where you know you're
23:42
Speaker 2: able to get four and a half when you were
23:44
Speaker 2: talking about on Tuesday, like that's that's a great number now,
23:46
Speaker 2: especially now that it is touching six and a lot
23:48
Speaker 2: of books, and you know, for me, this matchup, it's
23:53
Speaker 2: it's really all about, like we just said, the defense
23:56
Speaker 2: here where I do have faith now in this Viking offenses.
24:01
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold's got more comfortable, but this defense I just
24:04
Speaker 2: can't get it out of my head where it's like,
24:05
Speaker 2: isn't this the perfect matchup for them against Kirk, I
24:08
Speaker 2: guy they know in their style is what gives him fits.
24:12
Speaker 2: It just feels like it's that's the fear is it
24:14
Speaker 2: feels too easy chat because it's like five and a
24:17
Speaker 2: half stilled a lot of books. It feels like a
24:19
Speaker 2: gift like we always talk about where it's like it's
24:21
Speaker 2: still blow this key number of six, you know, them
24:25
Speaker 2: rolling them, blowing them out, or this coming down to
24:29
Speaker 2: they're up fourteen and Kirk gets the late touchdown and
24:32
Speaker 2: they get the two pointer and it Land's right on six.
24:35
Speaker 2: That sounds about right. So that's why I think the
24:37
Speaker 2: number should be six. It's like, that's that's where this
24:39
Speaker 2: game's gonna go. So yeah, if you if you took
24:44
Speaker 2: like I threw a little in Atlanto. I mean there
24:46
Speaker 2: was one book that had the six last Sunday when
24:49
Speaker 2: we talked about it. Obviously my bets have dwarfed that
24:52
Speaker 2: for this Minnesota side. If you were stubborn you do,
24:56
Speaker 2: like Atlanta, I would just wait like every product talk
24:59
Speaker 2: was coming in on this Viking side for the most part.
25:02
Speaker 2: So it's like if they're gonna keep taking respected money,
25:04
Speaker 2: they'll keep bumping it up, and you know the public,
25:08
Speaker 2: they'll come in on their teasers. Right, this is like
25:11
Speaker 2: this in Miami. It's gonna be a big tease team.
25:13
Speaker 2: They're both at six. Everyone's gonna take it down to
25:15
Speaker 2: a pick. That's just what people like to do on
25:17
Speaker 2: their teasers. So this could easily keep going up. So
25:20
Speaker 2: if you're like me and chatty, like Minnesota, grab the
25:23
Speaker 2: five and a half while you still can, if you
25:24
Speaker 2: haven't already.
25:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, the things that Kirk cousins struggles against the most
25:30
Speaker 1: pressure in the pocket are what the Vikings excel at.
25:34
Speaker 1: Right He's facing a defense that is fourth in sacks,
25:37
Speaker 1: third in QB pressures, second in blitz rate, also the
25:42
Speaker 1: top ranked defense for rushing efficiency defending rushers inside the tackles,
25:47
Speaker 1: number two outside the tackles. The most effective weapon the
25:52
Speaker 1: Falcons actually have right now isn't Kirk Cousins, isn't Drake London.
25:56
Speaker 1: Definitely isn't Kyle Pitts. It's John Robinson playing like a
26:01
Speaker 1: pro bowler. But that also plays with the Viking strengths.
26:04
Speaker 1: And I think that the wise guy. See what we
26:06
Speaker 1: see about Kirk is how terrible he was against the
26:10
Speaker 1: Chargers when they really weren't getting any pressure, and that
26:15
Speaker 1: unless he's playing the Bucks, he's kind of having a
26:18
Speaker 1: terrible year. And so this is a I am a
26:21
Speaker 1: little bit worried. It's funny, you know, I said, I'm
26:24
Speaker 1: trying to be more disciplined. I'm also trying to be
26:29
Speaker 1: more disciplined with the bank roll. And I got this
26:32
Speaker 1: at five, but I didn't put I know, I got
26:35
Speaker 1: it a five and a half. I didn't put a
26:37
Speaker 1: ton on because I was kind of hoping it would
26:38
Speaker 1: come down to five. And now I got to make
26:41
Speaker 1: a decision. Do I just increase the amount of money
26:44
Speaker 1: I'm putting on at a five and a half, which
26:45
Speaker 1: I'm going to because I wanted to get a little
26:48
Speaker 1: bit better number. I'm not going to get it. I'm
26:51
Speaker 1: going to have to live with the five and a half.
26:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, And with Kirk, I'll just say whatever's gone along.
26:58
Speaker 2: He has been awful the last three weeks, even after
27:01
Speaker 2: coming out of that bio. I mean he you know,
27:04
Speaker 2: no touchdowns, no touchdowns, six picks, six picks, just been
27:10
Speaker 2: a disaster. And you know, you think only it's only
27:14
Speaker 2: the people in media saying Michael Pennox's name, Like there's
27:17
Speaker 2: obviously gonna be whispers in that locker room. That's someone
27:19
Speaker 2: they see every day in practice, that apparently has looked
27:22
Speaker 2: pretty good all year in practice and even coming to
27:24
Speaker 2: the year. Remember they sat him, Yeah, it was the
27:27
Speaker 2: second week of August because there was obviously a fear
27:30
Speaker 2: even then with Kirk coming back from this injury, and
27:33
Speaker 2: it's just different, like he just does not have the step,
27:36
Speaker 2: he doesn't step in the throw the same zip on
27:38
Speaker 2: the ball, with everything that goes into it. So, yeah, Chad,
27:41
Speaker 2: this is one I can guarantee people is gonna be
27:43
Speaker 2: in our contestespecially a five and a half.
27:45
Speaker 1: Well, look, if you're also watching Caleb Williams the last
27:48
Speaker 1: three games really developing, if you've seen Jayden Daniels playing well,
27:53
Speaker 1: if you've seen Drake may ballin, if you've seen bo
27:57
Speaker 1: Nicks playing like a pro like truly developing, You're gonna
28:03
Speaker 1: be like, if the rookie quarterbacks are this developed and
28:05
Speaker 1: Michael Pennix is on that plane, we want to know,
28:09
Speaker 1: we want to see it, we want to take advantage
28:10
Speaker 1: of it. And by the way, the next offensive coordinator,
28:14
Speaker 1: head coach at quarterback who can figure out how to
28:16
Speaker 1: use Kyle Pitts might go into the Hall of Fame
28:18
Speaker 1: because he's now going through multiple levels of coaches, quarterbacks
28:22
Speaker 1: and coordinators who cannot figure out how to get him
28:24
Speaker 1: involved in the offense.
28:26
Speaker 2: So do you think we ever see any teams ever
28:29
Speaker 2: after Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins coming back from their
28:32
Speaker 2: achilles ever give money to a quarterback after the edge
28:34
Speaker 2: of what thirty five thirty six with a coming off
28:37
Speaker 2: an achilles?
28:38
Speaker 1: Of course we will, we one hundred percent will because
28:41
Speaker 1: everyone believes they can be the one to turn it around.
28:46
Speaker 1: Everyone's got a god complex, everyone is hoping, everyone is
28:50
Speaker 1: looking for the handrail on the roller coaster. Of course
28:52
Speaker 1: we're going to do it. There's not a question in
28:54
Speaker 1: my mind. Past glory will always remain Chicago, San Francisco.
29:00
Speaker 1: It's interesting you say the Bears are four point dogs
29:04
Speaker 1: here and better number than we got on Tuesday. So
29:08
Speaker 1: the wise gun money has come in on the Niners.
29:10
Speaker 2: Yeah.
29:10
Speaker 1: We actually asked on Tuesday is the value on the Niners?
29:14
Speaker 1: And you said that it's feeling very public. The Bears
29:18
Speaker 1: and the Seahawks are shaping up to be the biggest
29:20
Speaker 1: public dogs of the week. If you're looking at the splits,
29:23
Speaker 1: seventy three percent of the tickets on the Bears, sixty
29:27
Speaker 1: percent of the money on the Niners. Like, I think
29:33
Speaker 1: the Niners are in real trouble physically, and I still
29:39
Speaker 1: think I like the Bears.
29:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'm letting you kind of drive this boney
29:43
Speaker 2: where I was just happy to sit this on out
29:46
Speaker 2: because it's like, I want to be with you on
29:47
Speaker 2: the Bears. But when I'm talking to every guy who's
29:50
Speaker 2: saying exactly what I said, which is in my lifetime.
29:53
Speaker 2: This is a spot I hammer this forty nine ers
29:56
Speaker 2: team like this is always a spot I take this team,
29:58
Speaker 2: especially at this number. But my pause is what we
30:03
Speaker 2: talked about. The Foyners have so much bullshit going on
30:05
Speaker 2: off the field outside their injuries. You know, this the
30:09
Speaker 2: turmoil of the drama right now. I mean their media
30:12
Speaker 2: falling along and seeing everything going on, the conversations being had,
30:16
Speaker 2: even Kyle Shannon's demeanor. It's like, this is the team
30:19
Speaker 2: that went to the super Bowl last year. They just
30:20
Speaker 2: feel like everything's totally different this year. Confidence is totally
30:24
Speaker 2: gone by Shanahan m Purdy. The biggest one to me
30:28
Speaker 2: is what me and you talked about, which just this
30:30
Speaker 2: Barriers team. It feels like they really fucking hated eber
30:33
Speaker 2: Through like he's gone, like the ding Dong the Witch
30:37
Speaker 2: is dead. It seems like that to me is the
30:39
Speaker 2: biggest thing where it's like, are we reading too much
30:42
Speaker 2: into it, betting too much on a team that we
30:45
Speaker 2: expect will come out here and play hard together as
30:48
Speaker 2: a unit and play for something where I still don't
30:51
Speaker 2: know what the Foyers are playing for. People are like, well,
30:52
Speaker 2: they're playing for a playoff spot. They've been playing for
30:55
Speaker 2: that all season. Like I hate that where it's like
30:59
Speaker 2: I don't think they have it in them, Like they
31:00
Speaker 2: just don't seem like they have a dog in the fight.
31:02
Speaker 2: But yeah, obviously we expect this is their last ditch effort.
31:06
Speaker 2: This is gonna be their everything game. I get why
31:09
Speaker 2: the professionals are coming on the forty niner side, but
31:11
Speaker 2: I just can't get out of what we talked about
31:13
Speaker 2: how much it seemed like that Bears team hated their
31:15
Speaker 2: head coach. He's gone. We've seen it before in these
31:18
Speaker 2: exact spots where teams just play hard for their interim coach.
31:21
Speaker 2: And I just don't think the Bears are that bad,
31:24
Speaker 2: Like I feel like, no, no, like they really aren't.
31:27
Speaker 2: Like they have talent on both sides of the ball,
31:29
Speaker 2: and we've kind of seen that play out this year
31:31
Speaker 2: where you know they have covered in what three four
31:33
Speaker 2: straight weeks and crazy back door you could say, flukey covers.
31:38
Speaker 2: But it's what we talked about. Kayleb Williams, He's a
31:41
Speaker 2: guy that never gives up, could push the ball downfield,
31:43
Speaker 2: and you've seen that now after the Minnesota game where
31:46
Speaker 2: he came back and that game against Green Bay, Ree
31:48
Speaker 2: came back in that game against Detroit. At the end
31:51
Speaker 2: of the day, those games they probably should have won,
31:53
Speaker 2: maybe came down to the coaching. They've just been playing
31:56
Speaker 2: so much better these last couple of weeks since Fort
31:58
Speaker 2: n iras team. So not go bullyis Chad, I'll stick
32:01
Speaker 2: with you. I'll grab the plus four with Chicago.
32:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess at the end of the day, if
32:06
Speaker 1: we're talking about we always like playing teams when they're
32:11
Speaker 1: dogs and they have a new coach, and that we've
32:15
Speaker 1: we've seen that win consistently. We saw it happen again
32:18
Speaker 1: this year with New Orleans, right, and New Orleans has
32:20
Speaker 1: less talent than the Bears. I think there's a lightness
32:27
Speaker 1: in that locker room and relief for that team and joy.
32:33
Speaker 1: They'll just play with, you know, unabandoned joy, knowing that
32:39
Speaker 1: they don't have to worry about earber Fluse fucking it
32:42
Speaker 1: up at the end of the game.
32:44
Speaker 2: More than they probably want to show that he was
32:45
Speaker 2: the problem. Right, Oh for sure. Yeah, also for that
32:50
Speaker 2: hell Mary, and think how long ago that was?
32:52
Speaker 1: Will they hold They've been they've been snatching losses from
32:56
Speaker 1: the jaws of victory. For a month in the most crazy, awkward,
33:03
Speaker 1: inane ways. So the Bills will be on the list.
33:06
Speaker 1: I mean, what's scary right now, Simon, is We've got
33:10
Speaker 1: on our list two you know, mid sized favorites in
33:16
Speaker 1: Minnesota and Miami. So we're playing with fire a little
33:23
Speaker 1: bit here, especially since one of the other games we
33:26
Speaker 1: like the other day, Buffalo is a four point favorite
33:29
Speaker 1: at the RAMS. I gotta tell you what. We talked
33:31
Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday. I felt pretty confident. By the
33:36
Speaker 1: time I closed my computer yesterday, much less confident. The
33:42
Speaker 1: line had moved in the Rams direction all of a sudden.
33:47
Speaker 1: I was just feeling like, are we at the peak
33:50
Speaker 1: of the Bills market. I know we'd like them to
33:52
Speaker 1: win in these spots, and that they do tend to
33:54
Speaker 1: cover in these spots, but they just came off a
33:57
Speaker 1: stretch where they had like statement wins against the teams
34:00
Speaker 1: they have to be in the Niners and the Chiefs
34:04
Speaker 1: and the Rams are in a knife fight to win
34:07
Speaker 1: their division and still think they can do it. The
34:11
Speaker 1: move is on the Rams right now. And you even
34:14
Speaker 1: said it in sort of sharp calls.
34:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was shocked to talk to a lot of
34:18
Speaker 2: guys like even yesterday, I'm in the book and talking
34:22
Speaker 2: a couple of guys who I really respect, and they're
34:24
Speaker 2: both like, this is our favorite bets of the week
34:26
Speaker 2: is Rams, And all I could say was like, I've
34:28
Speaker 2: been there, been there this season where I love the
34:31
Speaker 2: Rams in this exact spot too, and it's just been
34:33
Speaker 2: burning me. So they could be right, like you could
34:36
Speaker 2: be right as well, where it's like, isn't this the
34:38
Speaker 2: spot to sell this Bills team, especially you know, huge
34:41
Speaker 2: win last week and they're heading to Detroit after this
34:44
Speaker 2: game like this, yeah, there, this is the brutal stretcher.
34:48
Speaker 2: But I can't get out of my mind, Chad, just
34:50
Speaker 2: that this is Josh Allen's world and we're living in
34:54
Speaker 2: it right now, and he's kind of broken a lot
34:57
Speaker 2: of the rules this season. And he was someone where,
35:01
Speaker 2: you know, I'll be the first to admit it, I
35:03
Speaker 2: thought we had a pattern growing with him where he
35:04
Speaker 2: was just going to be the team that beats up
35:08
Speaker 2: on bad teams and then struggles against the playoff teams.
35:11
Speaker 2: But that Chiefs game really changed my mind with that
35:14
Speaker 2: where like, you know, no one beats my homes by
35:18
Speaker 2: more than seven points, Like they really beat the hell
35:20
Speaker 2: out of that Chiefs team. And even when I say
35:22
Speaker 2: the Chiefs teams is not that good, this is a
35:24
Speaker 2: Bills team that lost twenty to twenty three to that
35:27
Speaker 2: Houston team. Right, they were down twenty to three at
35:29
Speaker 2: one point in that game, and the week before that
35:31
Speaker 2: they got demolished by that Ravens team thirty five to ten.
35:34
Speaker 2: So it was like we had reasons to question this
35:37
Speaker 2: Bills team since then. I mean, like you just talked about,
35:40
Speaker 2: they've been one of the best best teams all football. Mean,
35:42
Speaker 2: their only close game really was that Miami game, right,
35:44
Speaker 2: they won what was it thirty to twenty seven something
35:48
Speaker 2: like that, where it was like Tool had the Miami
35:50
Speaker 2: in that game. So okay, maybe they still aren't the
35:54
Speaker 2: best team against playoff teams. This Rams team is not
35:57
Speaker 2: a playoff team. I mean we can both agree with that.
35:59
Speaker 2: They're they are just lucky to be at six and
36:01
Speaker 2: six right now. And yeah, okay, you don't want to
36:04
Speaker 2: put this one in because it is it does feel
36:05
Speaker 2: a little trappy. How am I not gonna agree with
36:07
Speaker 2: you my whole life. I'm always on this other side
36:10
Speaker 2: with this Rams team. I do just think it's just
36:13
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's different. I'm confident in them, believe in them,
36:17
Speaker 2: love the matchup for the run game though. That's the
36:19
Speaker 2: biggest thing for me is this Rams team. We've seen
36:21
Speaker 2: it now. You know, if Taysom Hill didn't go buy
36:23
Speaker 2: of that game, I don't know if they're gonna come
36:25
Speaker 2: back against that Saints team. Like it feels like the
36:27
Speaker 2: Saints are kind of finding a groove there moving the ball.
36:30
Speaker 2: Same with this Bills team. It's like, how do the
36:32
Speaker 2: Bills not just run for one point fifty against this
36:34
Speaker 2: Rams defense? I literally cannot stop the run, Like they
36:37
Speaker 2: have no guys up front that can plug gaps and
36:40
Speaker 2: really stop stuff. So all right, Chad, if youn't want
36:44
Speaker 2: to put it in, I totally get it because it
36:45
Speaker 2: is not a spot we usually take. But it's it's
36:48
Speaker 2: all right, give me three and a half what the
36:49
Speaker 2: professionals bet. I'll be the sucker. I'll be like the
36:52
Speaker 2: Joe public here and I'll take the three and watching
36:55
Speaker 2: Land right on three and me losing my three and
36:56
Speaker 2: a half. But I can't help myself here. I'm just
36:58
Speaker 2: I just love this Bills team and how are playing
37:00
Speaker 2: right now?
37:01
Speaker 1: Well, look, we can keep it on the list. It's
37:02
Speaker 1: not like we have fifteen games.
37:05
Speaker 2: You're like, am I really gonna make chap of four
37:07
Speaker 2: favorites in? Look, here's I get it. I get it.
37:11
Speaker 1: And not just that we're the next game we're going
37:15
Speaker 1: to talk about which is our big balls. So we
37:16
Speaker 1: know it's going to go in will be the third
37:20
Speaker 1: game in a row that is going completely against what
37:23
Speaker 1: we normally do. So let's let's talk about these as
37:26
Speaker 1: a package instead of sort of trying to talk about
37:30
Speaker 1: them individually. But it is time to talk about our
37:35
Speaker 1: big balls better than we presented by Tommy Jo. If
37:41
Speaker 1: you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great
37:45
Speaker 1: games start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest
37:51
Speaker 1: okay La Chargers four point dogs at Kansas City. Simon,
37:59
Speaker 1: this is a game that is testing us, testing our faith,
38:04
Speaker 1: it's testing our fidelity, it's testing our biases because at
38:09
Speaker 1: first glance, we should love the Chargers, love them physical team,
38:16
Speaker 1: a good coach, an elite quarterback who doesn't make mistakes.
38:22
Speaker 1: Since Justin Herbert got healthy, they have been running more
38:26
Speaker 1: play action, which is getting him much more many more
38:30
Speaker 1: windows to throw downfield against the Blicks. His QBR has
38:34
Speaker 1: improved from sixty three to eighty six. But then on Tuesday,
38:39
Speaker 1: like during the show again in a conversation you and
38:43
Speaker 1: I had like before the air, before we came on
38:47
Speaker 1: the air, we couldn't get there. And like for me,
38:50
Speaker 1: we talked about it on Tuesday. It's really about the injuries.
38:53
Speaker 1: This team could not move the ball on the ground
38:55
Speaker 1: after JK. Dobbins went out against the Ravens a couple
38:58
Speaker 1: weeks ago, and they weren't any better against the Falcons,
39:02
Speaker 1: like gaining only fifty six yards rushing. Ladd McConkie is
39:06
Speaker 1: the only receiver who's been doing anything. He's been banged up,
39:09
Speaker 1: limited in practice, has had shoulder issues all season. Now
39:13
Speaker 1: he's got a knee injury that's newly diagnosed. We got
39:17
Speaker 1: to go with the Chiefs.
39:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's it really is. The thing we talked
39:22
Speaker 2: about the Chargers team was really me and you having
39:24
Speaker 2: a little bit of like we always backed the Chargers
39:27
Speaker 2: at this number, even earlier this year we took the
39:29
Speaker 2: seven and a half where.
39:29
Speaker 1: And always fade the Chiefs at this number.
39:31
Speaker 2: Right, And it's because it's been good to us, Right,
39:33
Speaker 2: you're going back. I'm in the action app right, now
39:35
Speaker 2: you look back in twenty two, they had two matchups.
39:38
Speaker 2: Both times the Chiefs were favorites greater than three and
39:41
Speaker 2: a half both times. Herbert Backdoor that covered like he
39:45
Speaker 2: covered it both times, and that was obviously really good
39:48
Speaker 2: to us. Now last year you kind of can throw
39:50
Speaker 2: it out, right, the Chargers had a bunch of injuries
39:53
Speaker 2: and then the final game of the year. I think
39:54
Speaker 2: it was the backup playing for the Chiefs and same
39:57
Speaker 2: for the Chargers, so you know, don't have much go
40:01
Speaker 2: off that. But this year we've seen it now where
40:05
Speaker 2: this this Chief's team. Chat to me, they looked burned out.
40:08
Speaker 2: I don't know about you, but I felt like they
40:10
Speaker 2: were burned out. And I read a really interesting article
40:13
Speaker 2: the other day about Andy re giving them a little
40:16
Speaker 2: mini bye week. Right, they had the Friday game and
40:19
Speaker 2: they gave him off the weekend, had a couple of
40:21
Speaker 2: guys come in Monday, obviously, but like overall, it seemed
40:24
Speaker 2: like it was a nice thing to let that team
40:26
Speaker 2: get away from it because they just look, you know,
40:28
Speaker 2: beat like that defense getting rolled. It's just not something
40:31
Speaker 2: we're used to with Spags And like you talked about,
40:35
Speaker 2: the big thing to me, this Chargers team is out
40:37
Speaker 2: loss of JK. Dobbins, they had no run game, and
40:39
Speaker 2: I felt like they had no like I don't know,
40:43
Speaker 2: not that they've been lucky this year, but they've been
40:46
Speaker 2: a team that this year have just been able to
40:47
Speaker 2: run the ball. Like you say, after they can run
40:50
Speaker 2: it justin Herbert gets the open easy reads because of
40:53
Speaker 2: the play action pass, and when you take that away,
40:55
Speaker 2: it just looks so complicated and just awful, and he
41:00
Speaker 2: looked uncomfortable. And again, this is against a Atlanta team
41:02
Speaker 2: that's not that great at anything defensively, where this Chiefs
41:06
Speaker 2: team we've seen as bad as they looked, you know
41:09
Speaker 2: before that before they started playing bad these last couple weeks,
41:11
Speaker 2: this is a defense that is really tough to run
41:14
Speaker 2: on and has a pretty good secondary overall. So yeah,
41:18
Speaker 2: this really is about playing this matchup and trying not
41:20
Speaker 2: to overthinking where it's like, Okay, is this the lowest
41:24
Speaker 2: we can buy right now? In the Chiefs this season,
41:25
Speaker 2: it kind of feels like it would have been great
41:28
Speaker 2: if this number got the three. Thought the professionals were
41:31
Speaker 2: coming on the Chargers, but I told you each other
41:33
Speaker 2: way most pros I've talked to you at this point
41:35
Speaker 2: of coming on this Chiefs team. I get their viewpoint,
41:37
Speaker 2: I get where they're coming from, and it I feel
41:39
Speaker 2: like in agreeance with them that, Okay, the number moved
41:42
Speaker 2: too much. If if it isn't three and a half
41:44
Speaker 2: in contest chat and you don't want to put in
41:45
Speaker 2: it because it's not three and a half, I get it,
41:47
Speaker 2: because it's four and a half, it's obviously not ideal.
41:49
Speaker 2: But I feel like at three and a half, we
41:51
Speaker 2: might have to put this one in another favor. I
41:53
Speaker 2: know it's crazy, but it's really all about buying in
41:56
Speaker 2: these spots on these teams that I feel like the
41:57
Speaker 2: public is underrating a little bit.
42:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you, and I think if you
42:02
Speaker 1: look at the Chief's injury report for the week, which
42:05
Speaker 1: I did this morning, there's three guys on it. All
42:09
Speaker 1: three of them were full participants in practice yesterday. Isaiah
42:14
Speaker 1: Pacheco's not even on it. You know, he came back.
42:16
Speaker 1: And expectation. Andy Reid is teasing that DJ Humphrey is
42:23
Speaker 1: going to be starting at tackle left tackle for the
42:26
Speaker 1: Chiefs and their biggest issue, and we could see it
42:29
Speaker 1: in the game the other day, even on the touchdown
42:32
Speaker 1: pass that Patrick Mahomes threw in the second quarter that
42:35
Speaker 1: sort of awkward pass where he got hit and bent
42:38
Speaker 1: over like he was yelling at the offensive line about
42:43
Speaker 1: protecting him on a touchdown pass and yelling at Andy
42:47
Speaker 1: Reid to get some of these guys to get that
42:50
Speaker 1: right tackle out of the game. So and Juwan Taylor
42:54
Speaker 1: constantly getting the same penalty over and over and over again.
42:59
Speaker 1: So I think they're between the rest between DJ Humphrey
43:03
Speaker 1: playing Andy Reid has been teasing it, the injuries dissipating.
43:08
Speaker 1: I think it's the exact right spot. So I'm excited
43:12
Speaker 1: that we kind of agreed on it. When we were
43:13
Speaker 1: slacking this morning, I'm like, is he telling me he
43:15
Speaker 1: doesn't like the Chiefs? Because now I'm in love with
43:17
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. So I'm glad we could find a mind meld.
43:21
Speaker 2: Offered up the Chiefs and the Panthers, and you were like,
43:24
Speaker 2: do you like the Chiefs? Here he goes, yeah, why
43:25
Speaker 2: would I say them? I didn't know what helly you
43:27
Speaker 2: were even talking about.
43:28
Speaker 1: Well, I just got confused because I'm like, I don't know.
43:32
Speaker 2: Listen, dude, I'm like, I get it, I get it.
43:36
Speaker 1: I'm want three hours asleep. Yeah, I'm trying to do
43:39
Speaker 1: the job. I'm trying to do it well, but I
43:41
Speaker 1: got to live my life. Okay, Listen, I can't be
43:45
Speaker 1: getting up, taking care of kids and doing this job
43:49
Speaker 1: while I'm out jetting around. Simon. We can hear the bells,
43:53
Speaker 1: we can smell the gingerbread. The holiday season is upon us,
43:58
Speaker 1: and with over twenty million pairs sold and thousands of
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44:28
Speaker 1: of Tommy John this season? Oh?
44:30
Speaker 2: We love Tommy John, Chadat, I'm giving it because it's
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Speaker 1: responsible for at least half of those twenty million pairs sold.
44:55
Speaker 1: The last game I want to talk about before we
44:57
Speaker 1: dig into some round robins and get to evan Is,
45:01
Speaker 1: Cleveland and Pittsburgh. So this was Simon says, very much
45:05
Speaker 1: a cell high on Pittsburgh, right. We would do that
45:07
Speaker 1: even if the other divisional and Tomlin factors didn't exist.
45:12
Speaker 2: We're gonna go in a tack mode. We will not
45:14
Speaker 2: go gently. We're gonna unleash he out here in December
45:16
Speaker 2: because we have to, because that's what's required.
45:19
Speaker 1: But teams in the Steelers current position, like the Eagles,
45:23
Speaker 1: who are covering by five points per game, just forty
45:25
Speaker 1: four percent against the spread against teams with winning percentages
45:29
Speaker 1: of sixty percent or less, which is what thet with
45:32
Speaker 1: the Browns have. And then there are Tomlin spots Is
45:36
Speaker 1: a favorite, you know, in a variety of categories, all
45:41
Speaker 1: of which have him covering less than forty five percent.
45:45
Speaker 1: You know, we don't want to back Jamis after he wins.
45:48
Speaker 1: We do want to back Jamis after he loses. Anything
45:51
Speaker 1: change for you here.
45:52
Speaker 2: No, And even if Jamis had won last week and
45:55
Speaker 2: this was still the number, I still think I'd be
45:57
Speaker 2: able to talk abutself, you know, just because how can
45:59
Speaker 2: you make a number this big in this division? It's
46:02
Speaker 2: it's so rare in the AFC North, the blow teams out,
46:05
Speaker 2: like you really have to be a really good team
46:08
Speaker 2: playing against a team that simply gives up midway through
46:10
Speaker 2: the game, Like could that happen here with Cleveland? Check?
46:12
Speaker 2: Can we get caught? Sure? Right, that's always possibility. But
46:16
Speaker 2: it feels like James has brought something to this team
46:18
Speaker 2: that they were lacking. And you've seen in the plane
46:22
Speaker 2: right the offense looks so much more open and fast,
46:24
Speaker 2: and they just need the defense to catch up to them.
46:27
Speaker 2: We know the defense has not been good this year,
46:29
Speaker 2: and we talked coming in the year that defense from
46:31
Speaker 2: you hear does not translating Jim Schwartz. I mean we
46:34
Speaker 2: have history now data back it up. His splits from
46:37
Speaker 2: year to year are incredible, like he either has a
46:39
Speaker 2: top two, top three defense or a bottom ten, bottom
46:42
Speaker 2: five defense. Even last week I was shocking. They talked
46:45
Speaker 2: about they only had two interceptions or two takeaways on
46:47
Speaker 2: defense all year before Bonnicks kind of threw a couple up.
46:51
Speaker 2: So this is a Browns team that I understand why
46:54
Speaker 2: no one's betting them, right, I think in the action
46:56
Speaker 2: app right now, with all the money, all the tickets
46:58
Speaker 2: right now ron Pittsburgh, I expect them to be the
47:01
Speaker 2: biggest public side. No one's gonna believe that Cleveland's gonna
47:03
Speaker 2: beat this team twice. That's how this division is. Though.
47:06
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh could easily win this division and sweep the Ravens
47:09
Speaker 2: Cincinnati and then somehow gets swept by Cleveland, who maybe
47:13
Speaker 2: only has four or five wins come to the season.
47:14
Speaker 2: Like that happens all the time this division. It's just
47:17
Speaker 2: a very weird, wonky way that it plays out. So
47:20
Speaker 2: I'm I can't help it. Like I love this number
47:23
Speaker 2: six and a half. Like I said, there's still a
47:25
Speaker 2: book in Jersey, where as a seven, which is incredible.
47:27
Speaker 2: So this is another number that I think professional money
47:31
Speaker 2: will come in. I think I'll be driven down. I
47:33
Speaker 2: could easily see this being six being one of the
47:35
Speaker 2: bigger sides when of the bigger parlays. And I can't
47:38
Speaker 2: wait to put an arm money line on a Robin.
47:39
Speaker 2: I just love this for an upset for this Cleveland team,
47:41
Speaker 2: especially like we just talked about, like this Pittsburgh team,
47:45
Speaker 2: you know, not that we're trying to sell high on them.
47:49
Speaker 2: But it's just like I talked about it last week,
47:51
Speaker 2: how many of these fifty fifty balls is Russell's gonna
47:53
Speaker 2: keep getting away with It's been incredible. They just keep
47:56
Speaker 2: all connecting. It's gonna catch up to them. It's just
47:58
Speaker 2: a matter of the very So yeah, Chad, I love
48:02
Speaker 2: the Browns as you can tell.
48:03
Speaker 1: Look AFC, north Hatfield, McCoy's, MONTAGUESE and Capulets like it.
48:09
Speaker 1: Just it's going to be close. We're on the Browns.
48:12
Speaker 1: I feel better because at least now we know we're
48:14
Speaker 1: gonna have a couple of a couple of underdogs potentially
48:20
Speaker 1: in five.
48:21
Speaker 2: I had written down before it came on. Obviously I
48:23
Speaker 2: get where you're coming on the Panthers. Was Cleveland and
48:25
Speaker 2: the Panthers, and then the three favorites we like. I
48:27
Speaker 2: like Miami, Vikings and the Chiefs. So if people don't
48:31
Speaker 2: be shocked, if that's our five, if Chad somehow knocks
48:34
Speaker 2: me out and I wake up in Chicago's in there
48:36
Speaker 2: or the Seahawks are in there, also want to be
48:38
Speaker 2: shocked either, because I get what you're saying. Those are
48:40
Speaker 2: the more public sides. But obviously. I like those numbers.
48:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're exactly aligned. I had Minnesota, I
48:50
Speaker 1: had Miami, I had Kansas City, I had Cleveland, and
48:53
Speaker 1: my next in was between actually the Rams, the Panther
49:00
Speaker 1: and the Bears. So we'll, you know, we'll hash it out,
49:03
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens, and we'll do something today and
49:05
Speaker 1: it could change on Sunday as it did last week,
49:07
Speaker 1: and you know, and it might not even matter because
49:10
Speaker 1: we'll end up in the set at the same spot,
49:12
Speaker 1: because that's what karma is. Simon, can you name the
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49:20
Speaker 2: Game Time?
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Speaker 1: That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time. As Simon
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Speaker 2: Game Time?
51:14
Speaker 1: We got to give out our two team money line
51:16
Speaker 1: Underdog Parlay bet three six five is going to boost
51:20
Speaker 1: the odds highlight it on their site all weekend under
51:22
Speaker 1: both game pages. And remember both games are eligible for
51:25
Speaker 1: bet three six five's early payout promo, where your money
51:29
Speaker 1: line pick gets marked as a win if they take
51:31
Speaker 1: a seventeen point lead, even if they lose. So if
51:34
Speaker 1: you want to bet this, bet it at bet three
51:36
Speaker 1: sixty five. The boosted parlay is Bears and Seahawks. Find
51:41
Speaker 1: the boost under either the Bears or Seahawks game pages
51:44
Speaker 1: on bet three sixty five our money line underdog Round Robin.
51:50
Speaker 2: There will come up payday.
51:52
Speaker 3: Hallelu y'all wanna pay day.
51:54
Speaker 2: There will come up payday someday.
51:57
Speaker 3: Someday, there will come up.
52:02
Speaker 1: Day, will come up payday someday.
52:07
Speaker 2: We unfortunately we don't do the Thursdays for our best
52:10
Speaker 2: three sixty five money lamb parlay because we want as
52:12
Speaker 2: many people have to get in on it. If you
52:14
Speaker 2: want to do a parlay with like green Bay and
52:17
Speaker 2: Cleveland or something like that, I also love that moneylam parlay.
52:21
Speaker 2: I know we don't get the boost of dodds, but
52:24
Speaker 2: I just I mean, I think Chadzy agreens me. I
52:26
Speaker 2: do think Green Bay is a Live Dog tonight to
52:28
Speaker 2: pull the off set up on money Line around Robin Chad.
52:31
Speaker 2: We went with Seattle, Chicago, Cleveland. Chad got the l
52:35
Speaker 2: A Rams in there, you sick go and the sickest
52:39
Speaker 2: one of all can't quit it going the Giants at
52:43
Speaker 2: the finish it off.
52:44
Speaker 1: Here's my thing. I think I'm on the right side here.
52:47
Speaker 1: I know you don't agree with me, but the money
52:50
Speaker 1: has come in on the Giants, I.
52:52
Speaker 2: Know, just scare the dexter Lawrence think scares the shit
52:54
Speaker 2: out of me.
52:54
Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm a believer. I think the Saints shouldn't
52:58
Speaker 1: be five and a half five. It's favorites against anybody.
53:01
Speaker 1: Agree Wise, guys agree with me. They've moved the number
53:04
Speaker 1: down from five to four and a half. So I'm
53:06
Speaker 1: putting them in there because you gotta believe in the
53:10
Speaker 1: New York pretending to play football Giants hashtag haptip. Thank you,
53:15
Speaker 1: Chris Raybaum.
53:19
Speaker 2: I just want to say, but people understand what I'm
53:20
Speaker 2: working with the I'm looking at our text, Shane exactly
53:22
Speaker 2: this Chad under saying if I liked the Chiefs, my
53:25
Speaker 2: text was Panthers or Chiefs for big balls. How could
53:30
Speaker 2: I be more clear you're a crazy person, because I
53:36
Speaker 2: was like, maybe I worried weird. Now I'm looking at
53:38
Speaker 2: I'm like, how did he not? How could I?
53:39
Speaker 1: Do you want a question mark? Was there a question
53:41
Speaker 1: mark at all?
53:43
Speaker 2: You're hilarious.
53:44
Speaker 1: I like, you know what, that's so funny? Oh you
53:47
Speaker 1: said you did Panthers or Chiefs for big balls question mark.
53:53
Speaker 1: I don't know why I interpreted that as you thinking
53:56
Speaker 1: you know what it was because you were so on
53:57
Speaker 1: the Chargers on Tuesday and I was too, and now
54:02
Speaker 1: I'm on the Chiefs. I'm like, did we come to
54:05
Speaker 1: a mind meld? So I was just that that's really
54:08
Speaker 1: what it was, and I was so excited, Simon, what
54:10
Speaker 1: are your biggest bets right now?
54:12
Speaker 2: Minnesota, Miami? Right now? Jump off the top? You know,
54:16
Speaker 2: if you could get the plus seven with Cleveland with me,
54:18
Speaker 2: like I've just been hammering that. As soon as we
54:20
Speaker 2: get done this call, I'm literally going to Pa with
54:23
Speaker 2: my aunt from England. We're making a quick stop at
54:25
Speaker 2: a sports book, giving her the whole experience. When I'm
54:27
Speaker 2: carting around a book bag full of cash and I'm
54:29
Speaker 2: hitting that last book that stills a seven over in Pa.
54:32
Speaker 2: So yeah, heavy right now at Cleveland, Minnesota, Miami.
54:37
Speaker 1: Listen, the family the bets together. I want you to
54:42
Speaker 1: give your aunt a very hearty English hello. Hello, Auntie,
54:46
Speaker 1: Scoots Roulette. Who is your Scoot Roulette?
54:49
Speaker 2: Pick?
54:49
Speaker 1: This week?
54:51
Speaker 3: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief,
54:56
Speaker 3: Let's play Scoots Roulette.
55:00
Speaker 2: Did you not win last week?
55:02
Speaker 1: I had Denver and I think you go first, but
55:06
Speaker 1: I think you had Green Bay.
55:07
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, but you're coming off you had won the
55:10
Speaker 2: week before. All right, I'm just trying to keep it fair.
55:12
Speaker 1: I appreciate that I'm going to Cleveland.
55:14
Speaker 2: You show a bitch. Yeah. As soon as I said, sorry,
55:18
Speaker 2: well let's flip it, then I'll go. I'll take your Vikings.
55:20
Speaker 2: I'll go five and a half vikings.
55:23
Speaker 1: I was trying to figure out what exactly is he
55:25
Speaker 1: going to say when I say I'm going with Cleveland.
55:27
Speaker 1: I thought you'd say it like you Listen. Before we
55:30
Speaker 1: get out of here, we got to bring in director
55:32
Speaker 1: of Research, Evan Abrams, for the final word. You better
55:36
Speaker 1: make us feel good, Evan.
55:37
Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
55:43
Speaker 3: We're going to start off talking about mister Enigma. That's
55:46
Speaker 3: where we're going to start off talking about if you
55:48
Speaker 3: know what I'm talking about, then you know if you've
55:49
Speaker 3: seen the Netflix documentary. Of course, I'm talking about Aaron Rodgers.
55:53
Speaker 3: He had said this week that he is reinventing redoing
55:57
Speaker 3: his home in New Jersey. So it sounds like he's
55:59
Speaker 3: very comfortable and and he's not comfortable in the road.
56:02
Speaker 3: And that's actually showed up in his status this year.
56:04
Speaker 3: So at home, his passer rating twenty points higher than
56:07
Speaker 3: the road, his completion percentage seven points higher home versus road.
56:12
Speaker 3: He has ten more twenty plus yard plays at home
56:15
Speaker 3: than he does on the road. On the road this year,
56:17
Speaker 3: rodgers Is completion percentage over expected is the worst of
56:20
Speaker 3: any quarterback in the NFL any quarterback hole. And Rogers's
56:25
Speaker 3: three total covers this year, opponents have only scored thirty
56:28
Speaker 3: three total combined points in those games. So if Miami
56:32
Speaker 3: can put points on the board, I'm not exactly sure
56:35
Speaker 3: how the Jets are going to stay there. Now, I'll
56:37
Speaker 3: give you this as well. So Sunday night Miami was
56:39
Speaker 3: minus seven. Of course, now it's down to five and
56:42
Speaker 3: a half. Here we go again. Every single week the
56:45
Speaker 3: Jets are getting action. Only two games have seen action
56:48
Speaker 3: on the board. As of this morning, the Jets and
56:53
Speaker 3: the Rams Bills are down to three and a half.
56:55
Speaker 3: Jets are getting money again.
56:57
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do, but.
56:58
Speaker 1: This is ridiculous.
57:00
Speaker 3: It seems like we're just going through the same thing.
57:01
Speaker 3: And I got one more for you. And this is
57:04
Speaker 3: this is right up your alley. You're gonna love it
57:06
Speaker 3: because I knew what you guys were gonna take today.
57:08
Speaker 3: We looked back at the Tuesday rundown. I was like,
57:10
Speaker 3: this one's a hammer trivia time. Guess the quarterback with
57:13
Speaker 3: the most turnover worthy throws this season, and he guesses.
57:18
Speaker 3: Cousins nailed it. Cousins with no way two more than
57:23
Speaker 3: any other quarterback. The next closest would be Gina Smith.
57:26
Speaker 3: Now he doesn't just have bad bros. He's also really
57:30
Speaker 3: crappy with pressure too. Cousins has faced four teams with
57:34
Speaker 3: a four plus percent sack percentage. Now that is opponent
57:38
Speaker 3: percentage of plays that ends in a sack, very simple.
57:41
Speaker 3: In those games, zero to four against the spread this
57:44
Speaker 3: year the worst of his entire career. So off the surgery,
57:48
Speaker 3: off the injury, with the offensive line just not dealing
57:52
Speaker 3: well with pressure and he's throwing the ball at the
57:55
Speaker 3: other team. I don't know what to say other than
57:57
Speaker 3: you know he's facing Minnesota, which you know, not only
57:59
Speaker 3: the best Stephens in the league, but also a team
58:02
Speaker 3: with best blitz percentage, Like second most pressures should be
58:05
Speaker 3: a fun day.
58:07
Speaker 1: I don't know how we got to this place that
58:08
Speaker 1: we love too six to five and a half to
58:12
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites, But here we are.
58:15
Speaker 1: We're betting what we see, which is fading Kirk Cousins
58:19
Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers and aged quarterbacks who come off Achilles injuries.
58:24
Speaker 1: Thank you Evan as a reminder of the Favorites. Podcast
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Speaker 1: Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap NFL week fourteen.
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