Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / ⚠️Biggest Stock Buyer JUST Flipped + Stock Market News 18 June 2024

Transcript

⚠️Biggest Stock Buyer JUST Flipped + Stock Market News 18 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We do seem to be live, which is wonderful news.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through here today all the myths and all the noise and nonsense that's out there today around stocks, what the mainstream media is telling you, which is largely gobbledygook.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Instead, this banker and his golden retriever, who's sleeping in the kitchen because it's colder in there, will walk you through what's happening today, what you need to know and how you make more money from it.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: That's the simple premise here Myth-busting it's a little bit we're going to do here today Before we get cracking.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: If you want to figure out how I make money, I run a small portfolio, live for the community.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: We did 126% in 2022, 105% in 2023, that's retirement capital employed, and then this year so far, we are up about $14,000 on a 30K portfolio.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: So just shy of 50% up there, just shy of halfway through the year, which just sounds about right.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we do that very, very simple three steps, automations and rules you want to know all the rules and exactly the full program.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Come and join me today, literally in about 11 hours, at 8pm Eastern time, and we're going to have some fun together and I give you the whole thing waltz and all the whole thing.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: So go to phoenixrenzalogcom the link is down below in the description and you can grab yourself a completely free seat Now.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: And you can grab yourself a completely free seat Now.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: This is the top of the list.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: That's surprising.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Why is that the top of the list?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, okay, here we are.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: This is what I wanted to kick off with.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Exactly Everybody is saying oh no, this rally can't continue.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: It's even more overboard than yesterday.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And it's this indicator down here, which is the RSI.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: It's a momentum indicator and it is breaking out.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: You can see that here.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Highest level since I don't know when 2019 or something like that.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: You know we had these highs before.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: And then somebody will always commit some sort of chart crime and say this is where we peaked, this is roughly where we peaked, and commit some sort of chart crime and say this is where we peaked, this is roughly where we peaked and this is sort of where we peaked, except we didn't.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't matter.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: No, as long as the rally is driven by fundamentals, which means better earnings, this doesn't bloody matter.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't quite outright ignore it, but I would not be basing massive investment decisions on this, unless you want to get a little bit more cautious, which might be a good idea.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Of course, none of this is financial advice.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: And then people are telling you the markets are at extreme levels.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: We're actually fearful as a market.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Fearful is where we are.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: We're nowhere near greed or extreme greed.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So no, we're not.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: We're kind of like not even halfway to greed.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: So therefore, again, market, not extreme levels.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: So let's calm down, right.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: And then you get thisVIDIA is crazily expensive.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Well, if you look at profits of NVIDIA, which is the white line here, that's profits.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And then in blue you've got the NVDA stock price.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Do you see a correlation?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Do you see that they move together?
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: And do you see that NVIDIA today is cheaper than it was at any time in recent history?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you do right, it's cheaper than all along here.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Right, because profits are going up and up and up and up, or certainly cheaper than it was last year.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So again, nvidia, actually surprisingly, very surprisingly, not expensive because their numbers are so magically wonderful.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: And then everyone's saying, well, it can't continue this rally, it must collapse very soon.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Well, who's the biggest buyer?
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to that in a moment.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Who's the biggest buyer of stocks?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And what's going on with that, because that's actually something.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: The one thing that we should probably be concerned about today, which we get to in just a moment, is companies.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Companies buy their own shares, right, buybacks are, if I could spell, buybacks, do you do that?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: My brain always omits letters, I don't know, dyslexic or something.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Who knows there is more cash in companies than pretty much any time in history.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Us companies are sitting on 4.1 trillion trillion in debt, which is about 12% of the US debt.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: But what are they going to do with that?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Well, they're going to take that money and they're going to buy back their own shares and they're going to pay dividends and all those glorious things that make us pesky investors happy, because we're greedy.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Right, we're here for the money.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Are you here for the money?
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: If you're here for the money, hit the like button and Travis there.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: We'll get to some chart analysis here in a moment as well.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: And then you've got people going.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: But the Fed can't cut interest rates now.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: We won't get a rate cut till like December, maybe later, maybe never.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Well, goldman Sachs, the bankers with the soft heart, are saying ultimately, the key driver of labor demand is economic activity, and GDP growth has slowed meaningfully.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: And we look at today's data in just a second as well.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: So the Fed is surprisingly hawkish, but we feel good about our forecast of two cuts, one in September, one in December.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So rate cuts are common.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And why?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Because the economy is slowing and we'll see that again today.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: And listen to the guys who deal with the consumer right, who deals with more consumers pretty much than anybody else out there Walmart, they say.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Many consumers' pocketbooks are still stretched and we see the effect that's having on our business mix as they're spending more of their paychecks on non-discretionaries so groceries, essentially stuff you need to survive and less on general merchandise.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: This was on the earnings call a couple of weeks back from Walmart.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: It's all out there.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: It's not a secret, right?
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: You just need to read it or listen to it or, hey, even subscribe to this channel.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: That was a smooth plug, wasn't it?
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I thought that was quite well done.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I think I should deserve a thumbs up for that at the very least.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: And then people are telling you this there's another myth Index investing is the best way to build wealth, and I know how to go about.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Yesterday Was it yesterday?
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: And yes, it is better to buy the index than not to invest, buy a million miles, but what is better than buying the index?
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Well, owning the Magnificent Seven by discount, because they've outperformed by a certain percent, because they've outperformed by a certain percent factor of 45, something like that 45x outperformance.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I think this is since 2015.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: So if you'd owned the Magnificent Seven, you'd be 45 times better off than if you owned QQQ.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Still think index investing is the way to go, I mean, for the really lazy.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: It's not for the lazy, it's for people who don't care about their money, who don't care about being wealthy, who don't care about money at all.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: So maybe you live in a tin hut and you don't go to work, but if you go to work every day, presumably you go there for money.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: You should really care about making more money from your money, right?
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So come and join us today at 8 pm Eastern time, and I'll show you how we make money from our money.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Now, this is the big boy, this is the big one.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: This is the number that I would write down.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Buybacks are the biggest buyer of stocks out there, have been all year and all of last year, and we go into these blackout periods where they are not allowed to buy, and it's basically, four to six weeks prior to earnings they can't buy stocks.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Then after earnings, the buybacks come back.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So the buybacks we're back with a full vengeance.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: And now we're here.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Roughly that means all of these stocks here are going to enter the blackout period in the coming days and that blackout window.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: So the blackout period lasts until 19th of July.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: So you're going to see a little bit less bullish activity out there from now to 19th of July and then the party is going to keep going.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So again, if you know that well, you're much, much better placed to like, if you want to buy long stocks for the long term, that's probably a good window to buy.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: If you're trading, you might want to be a little bit more cautious to the downside and so on.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So it's very, very important to understand this.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Again, information's out there, right.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So now you know.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So, as I say, come and join us right.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: See how we are up 50 so far this year.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Literally, can you see that performance this year 14 000 on a 30k portfolio.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: And that's using a strategy that's three steps.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: It's automated.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I do it in two to three hours a week.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Two to three hours a week, that's all I do.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: So you can join.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: That.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Could you do with more money?
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Yes, could you with less money?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Yes, just come and learn.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: It really it's fun.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: It really is fun, it's great fun.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Felixrentzorg slash webinars the link down below and we're going to have a blast later today.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Now the Elon isn't just sending us all to Mars and, you know, curing world hunger or whatever he's doing, but he's also building the next Venmo.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Now, interestingly, the next Venmo Venmo, of course is what?
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: A PayPal company?
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Right, it's a PayPal offer.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And Elon was a co-founder of PayPal.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Yes, he was.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: And how do we know this?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Well, he had to file for payment approvals.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: So dozens of documents the company has submitted to state regulators give a new view of the business.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Those and plans include a venmo-like payment feature that let users store money on the x accounts, pay users or businesses and even buy goods and services in physical stores.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: And they have been approved for money transmitter licenses in 28 states.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Now you need 50 to cover the whole bloody country, and that might take years, apparently.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: And so much for the good US of A being quick on regulation.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: And it would also submit applications for international money transfers after securing permission to operate in a majority of US states, which they now have, so they're going to also apply for that.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Is it the end of the world for PayPal?
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: No, probably not, although PayPal probably isn't enjoying the news this morning.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: We'll have a look at that in just a second.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Ethan is asking what's the reason why companies can or can't do buybacks.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: It's just regulation, the idea being you shouldn't be allowed to do buybacks so close before disclosing financial information to the market.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: That's kind of the idea.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: It's just regulation.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: It not necessarily makes a lot of sense, but it's just the way it is.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: We've triggered the Ramsey hoard, have we?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Oh, you mean with the index investing?
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, I know it's easy to trigger.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So to build a payment processor is a bit chicken and egg.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Right, you need a lot of people on that.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Paypal makes their money from merchants, not from transfer fees largely, and therefore this isn't, at this point, a competition.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I think, basically, elon is turning X into what the Chinese call WeChat, which is an app that is starting to look and smell much more like X, and when he was in China a couple of years back, he gave an interview saying he loves WeChat and he loves this app and he wants to build it in the US.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: It's exactly what he's doing.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of ironic really, isn't it?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, wechat is the number one payment device in China, followed by Alipay Maybe they're about head-to-head.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: So, interestingly, he's doing that and I like that he's doing it.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: I think it'll make X a lot better, but at the moment I don't see really that being a headwind for PayPal anytime soon.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Now, palantir here.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I took this screenshot just before the market opened, so let's have a glimpse at where we are live.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Right now.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: We are trading at 217.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: No, on Apple PLTR, let's see we are trading at what 2510.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: We are at 2516.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Again, no loss happened here.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: So what do you see?
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Well, you see a beautiful green candle there.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Let me get a green pen.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Maybe a white pen will do the trick.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: It's a bit fat, isn't it?
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: A beautiful green candle there.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: You saw, we sort of turned green about here.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Right, that's how we turned green.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: See the background.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: The background color gave us that early buy signal.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: And where is the resistance?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: It's here.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: No, you can't.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me zoom out and shift over the green candle here that I'm pointing to here.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: That's your resistance Resistance, if I could spell resistance is at $25.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: So the fact that we are sort of limping around $25 isn't really surprising, and that resistance is there for this week, but also for next week, I think even next month.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: And if you put a line across from 25, there we go.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: And then support is that red line down there, support the chart's from Trade Vision, as it's now called.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: If you go to tradevisionio you can get yourself a free 30-day trial to this.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: So what do you see?
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: We are trading basically exactly in that range, right.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: So we hit our head here a few times.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: There.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Support kicked in here and here and here.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: So the question is are we going to meaningfully close above 25 today?
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: That's what we need, otherwise we're going back to 25.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: So the buy signal here was good, right, it said buy there here.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: The background turned green.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: But right now we are.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: If I had a trade open on that, I'd probably be exiting right now.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Of course, I hope it's going to go higher, but we need to kind of see the proof here in the pudding.