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Platner?! Hardly Knew 'Er! ... ('em) · Politix

0:00
Hey everyone,
0:00
you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:28
Matt and I are going to race through a bunch of news at the top
0:30
of this episode,
0:32
SPEAKER_01: which is a hazard of co-hosting a weekly politics podcast.
0:35
SPEAKER_01: But then we'll go deep on two topics.
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SPEAKER_01: First,
0:38
the main Senate race and the latest contretemps surrounding the
0:42
presumptive
0:42
SPEAKER_01: Democratic nominee Graham Plattner.
0:44
SPEAKER_01: And second, the future of the American state.
0:47
SPEAKER_01: Inflation and interest rates and deficits and debt are all high.
0:51
And Republicans are once again poised to leave Democrats a huge
0:55
economic mess to clean up.
0:57
So we'll talk about how they can address this without playing
1:01
sucker to Republicans
1:02
SPEAKER_01: and also without pissing off voters unnecessarily.
1:06
SPEAKER_01: If you want to hear the whole conversation,
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SPEAKER_01: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
1:15
SPEAKER_01: Hello and welcome to the Politics Podcast.
1:17
SPEAKER_01: I'm Brian Boyler.
1:18
SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Glacius.
1:19
So we're going deep this week on Graham Plattner,
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which is not a euphemism.
1:25
SPEAKER_01: Despite the nature of the most recent oppo dump on him.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: Blue humor.
1:31
SPEAKER_01: And we're going to talk about the country's economic and budget outlook,
1:36
SPEAKER_01: which I think is really bad.
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And I think it's going to confront Democrats very likely to
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confront Democrats with
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SPEAKER_01: real political and policy conundrums in the next couple years.
1:46
SPEAKER_01: But first,
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we've got a lot of things to just tick off a list because a
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lot's happened since
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SPEAKER_01: last episode.
1:51
So my non-exhaustive list includes the California gubernatorial
1:55
primary,
1:56
which is happening.
1:58
SPEAKER_01: It's cooking.
1:59
SPEAKER_01: It's cooking.
2:01
I call this Trump's omni-fails because over the course of the
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past several days,
2:05
SPEAKER_01: he's seen setbacks on his slush fund for insurrectionists.
2:11
SPEAKER_01: He's lost multiple other...
2:13
SPEAKER_01: Court Battles.
2:14
SPEAKER_01: He's losing the Iran war still.
2:18
And his plan to hijack the country's 250th anniversary seems to
2:21
have collapsed.
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SPEAKER_01: So I mean, in a way, that's all great news.
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SPEAKER_01: But it's also kind of alarm, like, things are going so bad for him.
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SPEAKER_01: And there's so much time till the election,
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that it's kind of alarming to think about how he's gonna handle
2:35
all that stress.
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I also have on our list like Ken Paxton winning the Texas GOP
2:40
Senate primary,
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but maybe we need to save that or squeeze it into the Plattner
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conversation or
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SPEAKER_01: something.
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SPEAKER_00: Are you going to donate to him?
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SPEAKER_00: Are you excited about Paxton?
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SPEAKER_00: He's shaking up the establishment.
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I feel like I should have donated to Paxton like a month ago or
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something like that.
3:02
um but I don't know he steals so much money and like pens you
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know fancy pens and
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stuff from random people that I think that he doesn't really
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need my help and
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honestly Donald Trump his one like his great success this past
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week was getting the
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worst possible senate candidate nominated in Texas and like
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that freak out if if
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SPEAKER_01: Tallarico wins that race on the right is going to be epic um and like
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Could cause really unpredictable changes in the conduct of
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Republican politics.
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SPEAKER_01: Like in either direction.
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SPEAKER_01: Either they feel like we haven't gone extreme enough or they feel like,
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SPEAKER_01: okay,
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SPEAKER_01: the MAGA experiment has cost us Texas.
3:40
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
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SPEAKER_01: So we really need to rethink this approach.
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SPEAKER_01: So what order do you want to take those in?
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And I'm going to try to keep us in this segment to like 15
3:53
minutes so that we don't.
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SPEAKER_00: Sure.
3:56
SPEAKER_00: So I think we're agreed.
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SPEAKER_00: Agreed on Texas.
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SPEAKER_00: Bad call by Republicans.
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SPEAKER_00: California, what's your take?
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SPEAKER_01: Well, so what is your question?
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Who do I think is going to end up in the top two or who do I
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think should end up in the top two?
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SPEAKER_01: Both.
4:15
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
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I mean,
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we discussed the race in the abstract a couple episodes ago,
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I think.
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SPEAKER_01: And you seemed very surprised that I was impressed.
4:24
SPEAKER_01: by like the,
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what I saw of Matt Mahan was basically all I've seen of him was
4:30
his discussion with
4:31
SPEAKER_01: Ezra about housing and homelessness.
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SPEAKER_01: And I thought that he showed like,
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he's certainly like the most interesting and individual thinker
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among the leaders
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SPEAKER_01: of the race.
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SPEAKER_01: Like Katie Porter's also very intelligent, but is not winning.
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SPEAKER_01: They're not gonna win.
4:48
SPEAKER_01: No.
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So what do I think should happen is that I think Democrats of
4:57
influence should try
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to encourage people who aren't already committed one way or
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another not to switch
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from Becerra to Tom Steyer but to switch from Porter or Matt
5:08
Mahan to Tom Steyer in
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the hope of getting an all-Democrat gubernatorial tickets which
5:13
would have some
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annoying consequences in national media coverage and probably
5:18
would make California
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Voters very exhausted by politics but I think it would it would
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tend to like it
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could cost one or two swing district Republicans their seats
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because at the margin
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Republican voters be like what's the point of voting like the
5:39
only race that
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SPEAKER_01: matters is the governor's race and we don't even have a candidate
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So that's where I ended up landing But I don't feel super
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strongly about it And
5:48
SPEAKER_01: like,
5:49
SPEAKER_01: I get why Becerra's people Don't want that to happen I'm curious,
5:55
SPEAKER_00: this is like It's not obvious to me Like,
6:00
if you don't really care Whether Tom Steyer or Javier Becerra
6:05
Becomes governor of
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SPEAKER_00: California I mean,
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SPEAKER_00: I see the logic of what you're saying That like,
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SPEAKER_00: if Republicans are locked out
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SPEAKER_00: that maybe will depress their turnout in these House versus down ballot.
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On the other hand,
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there's a view that this is a strong midterm year for
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Democrats.
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SPEAKER_00: The national political climate is good for Democrats.
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SPEAKER_00: Steve Hilton obviously is not going to win a governor's race.
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SPEAKER_00: And Democrats just redrew the map to be more friendly.
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SPEAKER_00: And if you just have everybody firing in one direction...
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SPEAKER_00: I think Democrats are going to win all these House seats.
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Whereas I'm like deeply annoyed by the prospect of like a
6:45
trillion dollars of Tom
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SPEAKER_00: Steyer money being dumped on,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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like ads bashing Becerra whilst Becerra rallies the California
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Democratic Party
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SPEAKER_00: political establishment to go support him.
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SPEAKER_00: And we just have this like
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SPEAKER_00: Massive amount of resources being squandered in like a meaningless...
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SPEAKER_00: Primary.
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SPEAKER_00: And I wonder if that could be worse,
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SPEAKER_00: like actually for different house races,
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like all these people gassing themselves up with this idea that
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like Becerra is
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SPEAKER_00: this like monstrous tool of corporate America,
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SPEAKER_00: as the Steyer people are saying,
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SPEAKER_00: like,
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SPEAKER_00: I just,
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SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
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SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
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Well,
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I mean,
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I agree with you that,
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I mean,
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we're seeing it happen right now.
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SPEAKER_01: The scenario you're concerned about is what's happening as we speak.
7:33
SPEAKER_01: And it would just be extended for six more months.
7:36
SPEAKER_01: But like, I think what that means is that what you have is democratic
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SPEAKER_01: general election voters who are wedded to one faction or another,
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SPEAKER_01: really amped to turn out,
7:45
SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: to try to get either Steyer or the Steyer.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I can see that.
7:49
SPEAKER_00: I'll just say,
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SPEAKER_00: like,
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SPEAKER_00: we'll move on to other things because we'll just,
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SPEAKER_00: we'll know what the outcome is.
7:54
SPEAKER_01: By the time we, yeah.
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SPEAKER_00: I'm like, I'm annoyed.
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SPEAKER_01: Actually, no, we probably won't.
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SPEAKER_00: We probably won't.
7:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, we won't.
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I get,
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like,
8:04
you know,
8:04
people in Democratic Party politics are,
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like,
8:07
profiting personally.
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Both from the amount of money that Tom Steyer is spending on
8:12
his own behalf,
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but they're also profiting indirectly from like business
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interests donating to
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SPEAKER_00: Becerra so that he can beat Steyer.
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Like the fact that this race is happening is just like good for
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business if you're
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SPEAKER_00: a Democratic Party political consultant.
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SPEAKER_00: It's good no matter who you're working for.
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SPEAKER_00: It's like-
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There's been a lot of talk of who and what is and is not
8:36
meeting the moment in this
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SPEAKER_00: particular period of time.
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And I really think that Tom Steyer spending this level of money
8:43
on his personal
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desire to become governor of California is very much not
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meeting the moment
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compared to spending his money on supporting frontline
8:57
candidates who he likes.
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SPEAKER_01: That's interesting.
9:00
SPEAKER_00: Beating Republicans and beating MAGA.
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SPEAKER_00: It's like Steyer, before he ran for governor, he ran for president.
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SPEAKER_00: And before he ran for president, he was like a big donor.
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SPEAKER_00: He put Andrew Gillum over the top in Florida,
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SPEAKER_00: which didn't work out well,
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SPEAKER_00: but was completely sincere.
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SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
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SPEAKER_00: Like,
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SPEAKER_00: Tom Steyer did not have any reason to,
9:26
SPEAKER_00: like,
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SPEAKER_00: heavily back Andrew Gillum in that primary against,
9:30
SPEAKER_00: what was his name?
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SPEAKER_00: Gwen Graham?
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SPEAKER_00: Other than that, like, he liked Andrew Gillum.
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SPEAKER_00: Andrew Gillum had Riz.
9:35
SPEAKER_00: I liked Andrew Gillum.
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Thought he was a cool cat with Riz who would,
9:38
you know,
9:39
this is what I mean.
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SPEAKER_00: Like,
9:40
a lot of people shared Steyer's substantive judgment about that
9:44
primary and about
9:45
SPEAKER_00: that race.
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SPEAKER_00: And he also, like, spent generously on the general election.
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SPEAKER_00: And, like,
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Steyer was trying to find candidates who he liked and give them
9:54
money because lots
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SPEAKER_00: of people broadly share Tom Steyer's politics.
9:59
SPEAKER_00: The relatively few people have Tom Steyer's vast personal fortune.
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SPEAKER_00: And it's morphed into this,
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SPEAKER_00: I think,
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kind of just icky thing where he's just spending money on
10:10
himself and suggesting
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that the only way to be doing honest politics is to be a
10:15
self-funding billionaire.
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SPEAKER_00: And I don't care for it.
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SPEAKER_01: Okay,
10:19
SPEAKER_01: I don't,
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SPEAKER_01: I agree with the,
10:22
SPEAKER_01: like...
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SPEAKER_01: To be clear,
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SPEAKER_00: some of my best friends are personally profiting off of this campaign.
10:26
SPEAKER_00: I know, I know, it's funny.
10:26
SPEAKER_01: I congratulate everyone.
10:28
We go in different directions because you like billionaires in
10:30
general much more than I do.
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SPEAKER_01: But I do agree with you.
10:33
And I do see the,
10:34
like,
10:35
value in,
10:36
like,
10:36
the rare,
10:37
genuinely,
10:39
like,
10:39
ideologically committed
10:41
billionaire like Steyer and I think probably like Pritzker
10:45
being insulated in some
10:47
sense from some of the pressures of politics so that they can
10:50
just go out and be
10:51
SPEAKER_01: bulldogs or whatever.
10:52
SPEAKER_01: But no, I hear what you're saying about that dynamic.
10:57
SPEAKER_01: Two things that I would just offer as caveats.
11:01
SPEAKER_01: One is that he has so much money that if he makes the top two,
11:05
he can spend tons of money trying to beat Becerra and also tons
11:08
of money on other
11:10
Candidates elsewhere and like that's actually icky too in a way
11:13
depending on you
11:14
know because like yeah isn't a way of buying endorsements and
11:17
so on but um uh the
11:20
second thing is that like whatever happens I do think that
11:23
there is some value in
11:27
SPEAKER_01: giving him a um
11:30
Everyone's always trying to find Trump an off-ramp or a
11:33
face-saving exit or whatever.
11:37
Is to try to keep him on side in the event that he has just lit
11:41
half a billion
11:42
SPEAKER_01: dollars on fire in this primary.
11:45
So that he doesn't...
11:46
You know,
11:46
like,
11:46
billionaires are very frickin' sensitive about everything.
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SPEAKER_01: And I don't...
11:54
SPEAKER_01: He did not...
11:56
Go like super right wing or whatever after the 2020 primary but
11:59
like I could see
12:00
him being like fuck this party you know and then not only like
12:05
has he lost like has
12:06
this primary been just a big fuck up but one of the Democratic
12:11
Party's few like
12:14
valuable donors relative to Republicans like super rich donors
12:18
is just like I don't
12:19
know he becomes a non-player character or he eventually like
12:23
makes his way to the
12:23
SPEAKER_01: far right like the rest
12:26
SPEAKER_01: So, anyway, that's it.
12:31
SPEAKER_01: I haven't had super strong feelings about this race in general,
12:36
SPEAKER_01: so all of my thoughts are basically tactical,
12:40
SPEAKER_01: and that's all I got.
12:42
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I will say, Nolan Gray...
12:47
SPEAKER_00: who's like a big California housing guy.
12:49
I normally listen to him on California issues because I don't
12:54
live in California.
12:54
SPEAKER_00: I don't know it that well.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: He agrees with your take on this.
12:58
SPEAKER_00: I'm just, I don't know.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: It's like,
13:00
SPEAKER_00: I don't want anyone to be too mean to Tom Steyer because as you say,
13:03
SPEAKER_00: it's like,
13:04
SPEAKER_00: there's no point in like alienating someone who,
13:08
SPEAKER_00: you know,
13:09
SPEAKER_00: is a generous donor to progressive causes.
13:12
SPEAKER_00: But like, I find this to be a
13:14
Obnoxious Thing That He's Doing Okay What Else What Else We
13:20
Have Okay Trump Trump
13:21
Is Loosing In Court He's Not Getting A Slush Fund It's Yeah
13:24
Okay So One Of These
13:26
That We Haven't Discussed At All Because It It's A In A Way
13:31
It's Old News But B
13:32
SPEAKER_01: It's Sort Of Deep In The Weeds Is The The Trouble That The Trump
13:37
I guess the White House and the Justice Department both
13:39
probably since they're one
13:40
entity now have gotten themselves into in Chicago in this case
13:44
against the
13:44
SPEAKER_01: Broadview Six.
13:45
SPEAKER_01: Have you followed this?
13:46
SPEAKER_01: No.
13:47
This was like the Kat Abu Ghzale thing where she got thrown to
13:51
the ground and then
13:52
SPEAKER_01: they indicted her and five other people for a conspiracy.
13:55
SPEAKER_01: Right, right.
13:55
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
13:56
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
13:56
SPEAKER_01: Abruptly, like they pressed that case hard, right?
14:00
SPEAKER_01: And then abruptly walked away from it.
14:01
SPEAKER_01: And it turns out they walked away from it because they got caught
14:05
manipulating the grand jury and basically breaking the grand
14:12
jury rules in a number
14:13
SPEAKER_01: of ways in order to get the indictment secured.
14:18
SPEAKER_00: Oh, because they were embarrassed after those D.C. grand jury failures.
14:23
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
14:24
SPEAKER_01: I think in general,
14:25
SPEAKER_01: Trump doesn't just want to say,
14:28
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:29
SPEAKER_01: we're investigating somebody.
14:30
He wants them to be indicted and then he wants them to have to
14:32
spend their money
14:33
SPEAKER_01: and,
14:34
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:34
SPEAKER_01: like...
14:36
SPEAKER_01: He can't go beyond double jeopardy if they get acquitted,
14:39
SPEAKER_01: but he wants to really wring them out,
14:42
SPEAKER_01: right?
14:42
And so the prosecutor there was talking with grand jurors
14:47
outside the grand jury
14:48
room and vouching for the case on their own integrity and then
14:52
excusing members of
14:53
SPEAKER_01: the grand jury to leave the room if they were not buying the story.
14:59
And then when they got caught,
15:01
the judge was like,
15:02
let's see those transcripts.
15:04
SPEAKER_01: And somebody tried to redact the transcripts to hide the evidence.
15:08
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
15:09
SPEAKER_01: this is the sort of thing that people ask me,
15:13
SPEAKER_01: what could happen if Trump got caught,
15:17
SPEAKER_01: Trump's DOJ got caught trying to destroy Epstein files?
15:21
SPEAKER_01: And it's like,
15:21
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
15:21
SPEAKER_01: it'd be a huge scandal,
15:22
but it would also be devastating to the idea of federal law
15:26
enforcement in general
15:26
SPEAKER_01: because suddenly every
15:29
SPEAKER_01: Every defense lawyer in the country would have a pleading.
15:34
It's like we can't trust the government to be responsible
15:39
stewards of evidence in this case.
15:40
SPEAKER_01: Look at what they did to the Epstein files.
15:42
SPEAKER_01: And it could cause basically the whole system to stop functioning.
15:45
SPEAKER_01: And I think that we're kind of seeing something like that unfold there.
15:49
SPEAKER_01: But I don't know what else to say about it because we're still kind of,
15:54
SPEAKER_01: that process is still playing out.
15:56
SPEAKER_01: In the more political realm,
15:58
Uh not only did um uh there were two issues with the slush fund
16:05
one is that it came
16:06
about because private citizen trump sued his own government and
16:10
then he went to a
16:10
judge and he presented this as a real controversy um and then
16:16
she was like i'm not
16:17
sure there's real controversy here let's hear about this and so
16:20
he's like oh never
16:21
SPEAKER_01: mind never mind we're going to do a settlement
16:23
gets a $1.776 billion slush fund quote unquote settlement to
16:28
distribute almost
16:29
SPEAKER_01: however he wants,
16:29
SPEAKER_01: right?
16:31
SPEAKER_01: And some litigants find a judge,
16:38
SPEAKER_01: a respected judge who says,
16:41
SPEAKER_01: let's freeze the situation in place,
16:43
SPEAKER_01: right?
16:44
SPEAKER_01: No moving money that hasn't been moved, no payouts, no nada, right?
16:49
SPEAKER_01: Don't appoint anybody to run the settlement fund.
16:53
and um then the the first judge is like I think you may have
16:59
been running a fraud
17:00
on this court I think you may have went and come into my
17:02
courtroom under false
17:02
pretenses pretending there was a real controversy here so we
17:06
need to get to the
17:07
bottom of like what was happening behind the scenes and so she
17:12
says that the other
17:14
SPEAKER_01: judge says how about freeze everything in place and um
17:20
SPEAKER_01: And Trump says, you know what?
17:22
SPEAKER_01: Okay, I am not going to appeal the order to stop the slush fund.
17:27
And it seems like it's both a way of getting out of the
17:31
political problems that the
17:32
slush fund was creating for him and a way to try to avoid an
17:36
inquiry into his
17:38
SPEAKER_01: effort to deceive the first judge.
17:42
SPEAKER_01: So that's bad.
17:44
SPEAKER_00: But then the other issue is that in Congress—
17:48
SPEAKER_00: Because he's knocked off Cassidy and Cornyn,
17:52
SPEAKER_00: but they're both still in the Senate,
17:55
SPEAKER_00: he's like de facto lost his majority.
17:58
Well,
17:58
it just depends how independent those two guys want to be issue
18:01
by issue.
18:02
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, yeah, yeah.
18:03
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
18:03
SPEAKER_01: I look like- I mean,
18:05
SPEAKER_01: on this kind of thing,
18:06
like they are still conservative Republicans by conviction who
18:10
are not going to
18:10
SPEAKER_00: like
18:12
SPEAKER_00: do a wealth tax and universal health care.
18:15
SPEAKER_01: Even before these court developments happened,
18:19
SPEAKER_01: Todd Blanche,
18:20
SPEAKER_01: the acting attorney general,
18:21
went up to Congress to try to appease Republican senators about
18:26
this or calm them
18:26
SPEAKER_01: down about it and apparently went really badly.
18:29
SPEAKER_01: And John Thune,
18:30
SPEAKER_01: the majority leader,
18:31
sent the Senate home because he knows they're doing this
18:34
reconciliation bill.
18:35
SPEAKER_01: They're trying to...
18:36
SPEAKER_01: They're trying to do a reconciliation vote, right?
18:39
SPEAKER_01: And that gives Democrats the opportunity to force votes,
18:42
SPEAKER_01: and Jonathan was like,
18:43
SPEAKER_01: I can't have my members take that vote right now.
18:46
SPEAKER_01: So, like, he said everything.
18:49
SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, like, the basic issue, right?
18:51
SPEAKER_00: So,
18:51
SPEAKER_00: like,
18:52
SPEAKER_00: Susan Collins needs,
18:54
SPEAKER_00: really needs to,
18:55
SPEAKER_00: like,
18:55
SPEAKER_00: not vote with Trump on an unpopular issue,
18:59
SPEAKER_00: like,
19:00
SPEAKER_00: right now.
19:01
I think her issues with this go further because she's the
19:03
appropriations chair.
19:04
SPEAKER_01: Yes, but I mean, like,
19:07
SPEAKER_00: This is like, she can't, right?
19:10
SPEAKER_00: Trump has already knocked out Tom Tillis,
19:13
SPEAKER_00: John Cornyn,
19:15
SPEAKER_00: and Bill Cassidy,
19:16
who are all now like pissed at Trump and don't want to back him
19:21
on like weird
19:22
SPEAKER_00: idiosyncratic personal corruption.
19:25
SPEAKER_00: So that means like Lisa Murkowski,
19:27
SPEAKER_00: who's fairly independent minded,
19:29
or just like anyone else who's in a contested race and feeling
19:33
a little antsy,
19:35
SPEAKER_01: No, that was four already.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: Like, you don't even need to shout.
19:37
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, yeah.
19:37
SPEAKER_00: Right, right.
19:38
SPEAKER_00: So it's like, it's fucked.
19:40
SPEAKER_00: And I mean, it's good.
19:42
SPEAKER_01: It's like helpful, right?
19:43
SPEAKER_01: Like, he'll still be able to confirm judges.
19:45
SPEAKER_01: But like,
19:46
SPEAKER_01: okay,
19:46
SPEAKER_01: like,
19:47
SPEAKER_01: as I was like trying to get my computer situation unfucked this morning,
19:53
SPEAKER_01: I saw that Trump has named this guy Bill Pulte to be acting
19:58
SPEAKER_01: Director of National Intelligence because Tulsi Gabbard resigned.
20:00
SPEAKER_00: Bill Pulte, the FHFA guy?
20:02
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's going to be the spy chief, right?
20:05
SPEAKER_01: And like that guy couldn't get confirmed.
20:08
And there are some judges that Trump might nominate who I think
20:11
could now not get confirmed.
20:14
It seems to me that Trump is having a harder and harder time
20:18
recruiting goonish
20:19
SPEAKER_01: people to do anything.
20:21
And the Senate is becoming less and less willing to confirm
20:25
goonish people.
20:27
SPEAKER_01: And so he's either going to have to,
20:29
SPEAKER_01: like,
20:30
SPEAKER_01: come to Jesus,
20:31
SPEAKER_01: right,
20:32
SPEAKER_01: and just try to run a more normal operation,
20:35
SPEAKER_01: or it's,
20:37
SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
20:37
SPEAKER_01: it's just going to be a disaster.
20:38
SPEAKER_00: Well,
20:38
SPEAKER_00: yes,
20:39
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
20:39
SPEAKER_00: except,
20:39
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
20:40
SPEAKER_00: again,
20:40
SPEAKER_00: like,
20:40
SPEAKER_00: this is why I emphasize,
20:41
SPEAKER_00: like,
20:42
SPEAKER_00: I know,
20:42
SPEAKER_00: I know the Senate is a tough map,
20:45
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
20:46
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
20:46
SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
20:47
But,
20:47
like,
20:49
it is,
20:50
right now,
20:51
Trump is,
20:51
like,
20:52
in a seemingly weak legislative position.
20:55
But if we replace Cassidy with whoever,
20:58
and we replace Cornyn with Paxton...
21:04
SPEAKER_00: and if Susan Collins survives and is now,
21:08
SPEAKER_00: you know,
21:08
because there's a Susan Collins life cycle and the old Harry
21:12
Reid joke about her is
21:14
SPEAKER_00: like,
21:14
SPEAKER_00: she's going to be with us anytime we don't need her.
21:18
SPEAKER_00: You know,
21:18
SPEAKER_00: and so she,
21:19
SPEAKER_00: this has been a good,
21:21
2025 was a good year for Collins because the Republican
21:24
majority was big enough
21:25
SPEAKER_00: that they mostly didn't need her.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, there's a real risk
21:29
SPEAKER_00: You know,
21:30
SPEAKER_00: that Trump,
21:31
that we come back from the midterms with the Republican
21:34
majority shrunk because
21:36
SPEAKER_00: they lose North Carolina or because they lose North Carolina and Maine,
21:41
SPEAKER_00: but with like Trump re-empowered in the Senate,
21:44
SPEAKER_00: you know,
21:44
SPEAKER_00: like- It could happen,
21:45
SPEAKER_00: I guess.
21:48
SPEAKER_00: We gotta,
21:48
SPEAKER_00: you know,
21:49
SPEAKER_00: versus if Tallarica wins in Texas and Peltola wins in Alaska,
21:54
SPEAKER_00: then it's like- Oh yeah,
21:56
SPEAKER_00: Trump is greatly disempowered.
21:57
SPEAKER_00: You know,
21:59
SPEAKER_00: I just mean like it's a real night's edge moment.
22:03
SPEAKER_00: I agree,
22:03
but I just want to be clear that like Trump would be
22:07
re-empowered relative to where
22:08
SPEAKER_01: he is right now,
22:09
SPEAKER_01: but it would be basically like it was for all of last year,
22:11
SPEAKER_01: which was not good.
22:14
But it's not like having Paxton and like Collins with six years
22:21
to go or whatever
22:24
SPEAKER_01: makes the Senate caucus...
22:26
SPEAKER_01: Remarkably more right-wing than it was No,
22:29
SPEAKER_00: but I mean,
22:30
SPEAKER_00: replacing Cassidy,
22:32
SPEAKER_00: replacing Cornyn,
22:35
SPEAKER_00: and replacing Mitch McConnell,
22:37
SPEAKER_00: and taking the electoral pressure off Susan Collins,
22:41
SPEAKER_01: those are all inching,
22:44
SPEAKER_00: and as you say,
22:46
SPEAKER_00: Trump is becoming more actually unreasonable.
22:49
SPEAKER_00: in his appointments.
22:51
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
22:51
SPEAKER_01: Well,
22:52
SPEAKER_01: and,
22:52
SPEAKER_01: you know,
22:53
so the other things that have happened is like he keeps every
22:56
week basically like
22:57
we're about to have a deal with Iran and then it keeps not
23:00
happening and like the
23:01
SPEAKER_01: economic situation keeps deteriorating as a result,
23:04
SPEAKER_01: right?
23:05
SPEAKER_01: There was,
23:06
he's being forced to like stop his takeover of the Kennedy
23:10
Center and pull his name
23:11
SPEAKER_01: off the building,
23:12
SPEAKER_01: which I think is great.
23:13
There's like real effort underway to block him from building
23:17
this dumb triumphal arch.
23:19
um that would like mar Arlington National Cemetery which is
23:22
wild um and uh he like
23:25
was planning this he tried to hijack the 250th anniversary
23:28
celebration for America
23:30
and like all the he like seemingly misled a bunch of musical
23:33
acts into thinking
23:34
that they were being part of this broad bipartisan very like
23:37
similar to like the
23:38
200th anniversary in 1976 and then they realized that no they
23:43
were being recruited
23:43
SPEAKER_01: into this very partisan MAGA thing and they all dropped out
23:47
And so now the 200,
23:48
you know,
23:49
the thing that he had planned is falling apart.
23:52
SPEAKER_01: And that's a very humiliating thing.
23:56
And like there are supporters of his who are mad at him because
24:00
they really saw
24:02
this as an opportunity to pull the country into one audience
24:07
and then present MAGA
24:08
SPEAKER_01: in a good and patriotic light.
24:10
SPEAKER_01: And Trump just is not capable of that.
24:13
um so it like you can see how like we could spiral toward the
24:19
midterms and that's
24:22
good news except like the Pulte thing that we just glossed over
24:28
is a reminder that
24:29
like Trump the ace he thinks he has up his sleeve is that if if
24:33
the election goes
24:34
SPEAKER_01: really really badly he could just try to steal it right like Pulte
24:38
SPEAKER_00: To close the loop on Pulte, right?
24:41
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
24:42
Pulte was appointed to this important but pretty blah financial
24:48
regulatory job at
24:50
SPEAKER_00: the head of the Federal Housing Finance Administration,
24:53
SPEAKER_00: which is the sort of federal custodian for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
24:59
SPEAKER_00: This is a job that-
25:01
You just don't hear that much about unless you're deep in the
25:04
weeds of housing policy.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: But he used his post there to keep rummaging through the file,
25:11
SPEAKER_00: the mortgage application files of various Democrats and,
25:16
SPEAKER_00: you know,
25:16
SPEAKER_01: try to get- And a couple Republicans too.
25:17
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
25:18
SPEAKER_00: And like basically to like blackmail them or,
25:21
SPEAKER_01: you know- Trying to get them prosecuted was the main thing,
25:24
SPEAKER_01: I think.
25:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
25:24
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
25:25
SPEAKER_00: very core abusive power type stuff where,
25:29
SPEAKER_00: you know,
25:29
SPEAKER_00: again,
25:30
SPEAKER_00: the implication is that,
25:33
SPEAKER_00: like,
25:33
SPEAKER_00: he has no relevant experience to be director of national intelligence.
25:37
This would be somebody who you're picking just because he has a
25:41
proven track record
25:42
SPEAKER_00: of unethically leaking documents.
25:44
SPEAKER_00: information to persecute Donald Trump's political enemies.
25:48
So that would be quite dire to have him installed in a
25:53
substantial national security role.
25:56
SPEAKER_01: And I mean, we've been through this a bunch of times.
26:01
The one insurance policy Democrats could use is to just try to
26:06
win the midterms by
26:07
as wide a margin as possible so that it's impossible or much
26:10
more difficult for
26:11
SPEAKER_01: Trump to overturn the
26:13
results en masse but like James Tallarico could win in Texas
26:19
and Texas Republicans
26:20
would still be in charge of that state and Donald Trump would
26:24
still be in the White
26:25
House and Bill Pulte would be doing whatever with the DNI
26:27
office and they could be
26:29
like no Ken Paxton won like I don't know what happens then um
26:34
and uh and so it's
26:36
SPEAKER_01: like it's like both
26:39
I'm like I'm like I got the popcorn going I'm like every time
26:43
more bad news happens
26:46
to Donald Trump I get like excited like schadenfreude
26:49
schadenfreude but I'm like
26:51
he's a he he's a volatile guy who's one North Star in life is
26:54
like never admit that
26:55
you've made a mistake and been bested and have to change course
27:00
and so like he I
27:03
SPEAKER_01: don't know like like
27:04
like very dangerous situation and I think everyone's just got
27:08
to be hyper vigilant
27:09
about literally like just think about everything he can touch
27:14
and have eyeballs on
27:15
it or or else you're gonna like wake up caught by surprise by
27:18
something horrible
27:19
you know like things you things like I'm not criticizing
27:22
Democrats for this but
27:24
like when Tulsi Gabbard uh Bill Peltier's predecessor was like
27:28
spotted at the
27:29
SPEAKER_01: Fulton County uh election office uh
27:32
SPEAKER_01: for an FBI raid to try to seize these ballots or whatever.
27:37
SPEAKER_01: That was not on anybody's radar.
27:40
SPEAKER_01: And it's still a little unclear what they hope to gain from that,
27:43
SPEAKER_01: at least in the immediate term,
27:45
SPEAKER_01: except to maybe on the eve of the election say,
27:51
SPEAKER_01: we can't trust the Fulton County people to count these ballots.
27:56
SPEAKER_01: It is becoming increasingly important for everybody
28:00
Democrats and really everybody in liberal politics to try to
28:04
inhabit Donald Trump's
28:05
mind and the minds of the very mischievous people who work with
28:08
him and anticipate,
28:10
what would you do if you had no moral scruples and were
28:12
desperate to win the
28:13
SPEAKER_01: election by cheating?
28:15
SPEAKER_01: And then go look at those nodes and just be ready.
28:22
SPEAKER_01: You won't necessarily catch everything, but you can't just be like,
28:25
We're going to run up the score real big and not pay attention
28:30
to the hypothetical
28:31
corruption because then you're going to be caught flat-footed
28:35
and you're going to
28:35
be scrambling to respond to something you weren't anticipating
28:37
and it's just much
28:39
SPEAKER_01: harder that way,
28:39
SPEAKER_01: I think.
28:41
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
28:42
SPEAKER_00: I mean, yes.
28:44
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I agree, but also I think it's hard.
28:49
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
28:50
SPEAKER_00: It's like some things you just kind of have to try to plan for.
28:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
28:55
SPEAKER_00: a little bit in parallel to your national political campaign.
28:59
SPEAKER_00: I don't know that it's...
29:03
SPEAKER_00: I get questions about this all the time from my readers.
29:07
The issue that the slow-boring audience is most lived out about
29:11
is Donald Trump
29:12
SPEAKER_00: might steal the election.
29:14
SPEAKER_00: And he might, but I don't...
29:18
SPEAKER_00: I don't totally know.
29:20
SPEAKER_00: It's like you've got to be ready.
29:22
SPEAKER_00: We have a lot of polling in America, which is good.
29:25
SPEAKER_00: We do have a very decentralized election administration apparatus,
29:28
SPEAKER_00: which is challenging to steal.
29:32
SPEAKER_00: And depending on what happens,
29:35
SPEAKER_00: you might need mass protests in the street,
29:37
SPEAKER_00: a la the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.
29:41
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: But it's like, you have to win the election first.
29:45
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
29:46
SPEAKER_00: Until you can protest the theft of the election.
29:49
SPEAKER_00: And,
29:50
SPEAKER_00: you know,
29:50
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
29:51
SPEAKER_00: infamously,
29:52
SPEAKER_00: like the sort of checked out,
29:55
SPEAKER_00: not that engaged with the news news.
29:59
People who voted for Trump despite January 6th because they
30:02
were mad about
30:03
SPEAKER_00: inflation,
30:04
SPEAKER_00: but now they're still mad about inflation and want to vote for Democrats.
30:08
Like they don't want to hear about like hypothetically Trump
30:11
might steal the
30:12
SPEAKER_00: election after the election.
30:14
So it's like,
30:15
I'm talking about like,
30:16
like,
30:17
you know,
30:17
task forcing and like off to the side.
30:20
SPEAKER_01: Like I know that, um, uh, what's his name?
30:23
SPEAKER_01: Democracy.
30:23
SPEAKER_01: Mark Elias does a lot of,
30:25
This kind of work Like trying to anticipate shenanigans But
30:28
it's like ahead of
30:29
courtroom battles And it's not Like it's It's a bigger project
30:33
than just like the
30:34
law It's like Trying to Be ready Anticipate things And then And
30:42
then get ahead of
30:43
them In the same way that like Joe Biden would Leak
30:46
intelligence about what Russia
30:47
was doing In Ukraine So that Russia couldn't get the You know
30:51
Gain a narrative
30:51
SPEAKER_01: advantage You want to try to do that
30:53
SPEAKER_01: and not obviously make that the centerpiece of the campaign,
30:56
SPEAKER_01: but just have a bunch of shrewd people in the party like wargaming it.
31:03
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, I said 15 minutes and I think we did closer to 30.
31:08
One place where I think Trump would have a really hard time
31:12
stealing an election is Maine.
31:15
SPEAKER_01: If Graham Plattner wins the primary and then the general election,
31:18
SPEAKER_01: he will become a senator without muss or fuss.
31:23
SPEAKER_01: But
31:24
It would be pretty funny if Janet Mills stole the election
31:27
because she's bitter.
31:29
SPEAKER_01: She did say something like, I'm still on the ballot.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: I could read.
31:32
SPEAKER_00: Oh, in the primary.
31:33
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, her campaign's suspended.
31:35
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:36
SPEAKER_01: Graham Plattner, we already knew that he was a work in progress as a man.
31:43
SPEAKER_01: Had been indiscreet online in his 20s after going to war.
31:51
said some not nice things about women and various other folks
31:56
he got a tattoo of a
31:57
skull and crossbones which turned out to be a Totenkopf a Nazi
32:03
skull and crossbones
32:05
not a not a Captain Hook or Punisher skull and crossbones and
32:10
he weathered all that
32:12
SPEAKER_01: and he explained it all you know mostly to my satisfaction there are many
32:16
SPEAKER_01: progressives to whom he didn't explain it to their satisfaction
32:20
um and obviously Republicans are still trying to use that stuff
32:24
um but then this
32:26
week um he was like on the receiving end of an oppo dump but it
32:31
came from a former
32:32
staffer of his where when he was doing the self vet so that
32:37
everyone on his
32:38
campaign would know what might come out about him his wife
32:42
confided in the campaign
32:43
that early in their in their marriage she had you know she had
32:47
caught him I guess
32:49
SPEAKER_01: uh
32:50
SPEAKER_01: like on online dating apps and sexting other women.
32:58
SPEAKER_01: They had, she confronted him about it.
33:00
SPEAKER_01: They went to marriage counseling.
33:01
SPEAKER_01: They're apparently fine now, according to her, according to him.
33:05
SPEAKER_01: But like pictures leaked and it's,
33:09
SPEAKER_01: you know,
33:09
SPEAKER_01: it's building a,
33:11
SPEAKER_01: a picture is emerging of a man who's kind of a mess,
33:17
SPEAKER_01: right?
33:19
SPEAKER_01: And
33:20
The betting markets,
33:22
he's still ahead in them,
33:23
but they turned down dramatically.
33:26
SPEAKER_01: He was crushing, and now he's narrowly ahead or something like that.
33:34
SPEAKER_01: In a way,
33:36
you're not supposed to do this if you work for a campaign and
33:40
you keep the
33:40
SPEAKER_01: confidences of the people you work for.
33:44
SPEAKER_01: It's a bad practice,
33:46
SPEAKER_01: but in a way,
33:47
SPEAKER_01: it's good that this information came out now rather than in October.
33:52
and but it's like you know now there's a discussion like can
33:58
Graham Plattner still
33:59
SPEAKER_01: win is he fatally wounded is he blah blah blah does this put the earlier
34:04
revelations in a worse light and I guess like my thoughts on it
34:12
are mostly like
34:16
Nothing that has come out thus far has made me be like,
34:18
that guy should never be a senator.
34:20
SPEAKER_01: It's very important he not become a senator.
34:22
I am concerned about what I don't know that hasn't come out
34:25
because people who live
34:26
SPEAKER_01: volatile lives over the course of at least 25 years or,
34:31
SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry,
34:31
SPEAKER_01: 15 years or so,
34:36
SPEAKER_01: you don't know what they've done.
34:39
SPEAKER_00: I have been a little surprised by how big of an impact
34:44
uh this seems to have had on the race just because we um you
34:49
know once upon a time
34:51
like infidelity yeah just be just to be clear there's the race
34:55
in how it's uh how
34:57
people are perceiving it in media there's the race is how
35:00
people are betting on it
35:00
in betting markets and then there's the race as it appears in
35:04
polling snapshots and
35:05
we only know what the media is saying and what the betters are
35:08
saying at this point
35:09
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
35:10
SPEAKER_00: I think we also know,
35:12
I guess I would say like I know individual human beings who
35:17
were all in on Plattner
35:19
SPEAKER_00: and are now having doubts about him.
35:24
SPEAKER_00: And that just surprised me because,
35:27
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
35:27
SPEAKER_00: we all know that like once upon a time,
35:29
SPEAKER_00: infidelity scandals would derail people's political careers.
35:34
SPEAKER_00: And that seems to be in the past.
35:39
SPEAKER_00: You know,
35:39
SPEAKER_00: like the president of the United States,
35:43
SPEAKER_00: numerous serving senators,
35:45
SPEAKER_00: members of Congress,
35:46
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
35:46
SPEAKER_00: have had this kind of thing.
35:47
SPEAKER_00: So when it first broke,
35:49
SPEAKER_00: I kind of felt like whatever,
35:51
SPEAKER_00: that like I got what the Totenkampff,
35:56
SPEAKER_00: like the substance of the Totenkampff controversy.
35:59
SPEAKER_00: Cough.
36:00
SPEAKER_00: Cough.
36:01
SPEAKER_00: And he seemed to have litigated it successfully.
36:03
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
36:05
SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm revising my view.
36:07
SPEAKER_00: I am learning.
36:08
SPEAKER_00: I am doing the work.
36:10
SPEAKER_00: I'm listening.
36:11
And apparently quite a number of people who had the view that
36:18
this was in the past,
36:20
SPEAKER_00: but they took Plattner,
36:21
SPEAKER_00: you know,
36:22
SPEAKER_00: at his word that he was a changed man and newly woke.
36:27
SPEAKER_00: Now they are, they don't know because this was relatively recent and
36:35
I guess where I stand on this whole thing is that normally
36:40
after you win a divisive
36:41
SPEAKER_00: primary,
36:43
SPEAKER_00: you try to bring people together,
36:47
SPEAKER_00: you know?
36:48
And it is true that the coming together takes two sides and
36:53
like Jake Auchincloss
36:54
SPEAKER_00: going on cable and being like,
36:56
SPEAKER_00: I still find this tattoo thing unacceptable is not helpful.
37:01
SPEAKER_00: But,
37:02
SPEAKER_00: you know,
37:02
SPEAKER_00: I think most people,
37:04
I think the vast majority of Democrats who were not excited
37:08
about Plattner and
37:09
Plattner's message and Plattner's tattoos just like really want
37:12
to get to yes on
37:14
SPEAKER_00: Plattner because they're highly partisan Democrats and he's the nominee.
37:18
SPEAKER_00: And he was like not giving them very much to work with.
37:24
SPEAKER_00: You know, like it's remarkable that he went and did a rally
37:30
SPEAKER_00: With Bernie Sanders, Troy Jackson, and Matt Dunlap.
37:34
Because Troy Jackson and Matt Dunlap are running in contested
37:38
primaries in Maine.
37:39
SPEAKER_00: You know,
37:40
SPEAKER_00: it's unusual for the guy who,
37:42
SPEAKER_00: like,
37:43
SPEAKER_00: won his primary to be doubling down on factionalism.
37:48
SPEAKER_00: Is it?
37:49
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
37:51
SPEAKER_00: Matt Dunlap, to be clear, is the state auditor of Maine, right?
37:55
SPEAKER_00: He's a statewide elected official.
37:56
He took a pass on running against Susan Collins in order to
38:01
mount a primary
38:01
SPEAKER_00: challenge to Jared Golden.
38:04
SPEAKER_00: And like,
38:05
I think that makes him probably like the single worst person in
38:09
Democratic Party
38:10
SPEAKER_00: politics.
38:11
SPEAKER_00: I think this is like an unforgivable course of action.
38:14
I'm not going to say it's unforgivable of Graham Plattner to be
38:17
continuing to
38:18
SPEAKER_00: campaign with Dunlap to help him beat John Baldacci,
38:21
SPEAKER_00: the electability candidate,
38:23
SPEAKER_00: in Maine's second congressional election.
38:26
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't help.
38:27
SPEAKER_00: And I was saying to you,
38:28
SPEAKER_00: I think last week or two weeks ago,
38:30
SPEAKER_00: that I have very mixed feelings about the Plattner campaign,
38:33
SPEAKER_00: not because of tattoos or his kick messages or anything,
38:37
SPEAKER_00: but because his supporters have made it clear that their intention,
38:42
SPEAKER_00: if he wins,
38:43
is to weaponize Plattner's electoral success against the
38:48
abundance movement and
38:49
SPEAKER_00: yimbyism and stuff like that.
38:51
SPEAKER_00: And I'm like,
38:52
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to vote for Susan Collins
39:09
SPEAKER_00: I would like Plattner to show some sympathy with that worldview.
39:12
SPEAKER_00: And Matt Dunlap is the 180 degrees opposite of that.
39:15
Matt Dunlap took out the single highest value,
39:20
vote blue no matter who person,
39:22
in Congress.
39:23
SPEAKER_00: And it's crazy to me that Plattner,
39:25
SPEAKER_00: instead of trying to do unity events with Shelley Pingree,
39:30
SPEAKER_00: is doing...
39:32
Disunity Events with Dunlap because it's like what do you want
39:36
me to say on
39:37
Plattner you know if somebody is like I don't like this guy he
39:41
seems shady liar I'm
39:43
like well for your own inner peace can I suggest something to
39:46
you that like
39:48
assuming Plattner carries out the race through November he'll
39:52
either lose or he'll
39:55
SPEAKER_01: win narrowly or he'll win by a normal margin or he'll win big
40:02
SPEAKER_01: If he wins big, you are going to deal with a lot of annoying bullshit.
40:06
SPEAKER_01: You just are.
40:07
SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm dealing with annoying bullshit no matter what happens.
40:10
SPEAKER_01: I know,
40:10
SPEAKER_01: I understand,
40:10
but I'm talking about specifically as to this question of what
40:13
are the Plattner
40:14
SPEAKER_01: people,
40:14
SPEAKER_01: how are they going to weaponize him?
40:16
SPEAKER_01: And if he overperforms and they,
40:19
SPEAKER_01: you know,
40:19
SPEAKER_01: it is just indisputable that he converted a bunch of Trump people,
40:24
they are going to use that and it's going to be pretty
40:25
persuasive and it's going to
40:26
SPEAKER_01: be annoying for you,
40:28
SPEAKER_01: right?
40:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
40:29
SPEAKER_01: If he underperforms,
40:31
they're gonna try anyway because that's how factional politics
40:33
works but you're
40:34
gonna be able to say look like he won a Democrat won a
40:37
Democratic state it's not
40:38
fucking rocket science to do that and he did it probably by
40:42
losing gettable votes
40:45
and I you know people like me who are not part of that faction
40:48
will be like Matt's
40:49
SPEAKER_01: right about that um and I I think that like you should defer your the
40:56
SPEAKER_01: recriminations you're anticipating for the moment when they arrive um
41:01
SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
41:03
SPEAKER_01: your complaints about this Matt Dunlap thing,
41:04
SPEAKER_01: I'd like literally never thought of.
41:06
SPEAKER_01: To me,
41:07
SPEAKER_01: it's just like the,
41:10
SPEAKER_01: you know,
41:11
most races do not boil down to an obvious factional
41:18
head-to-head between somebody
41:19
SPEAKER_01: from the progressive wing and somebody from the moderate wing.
41:22
SPEAKER_01: Some do, right?
41:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
41:23
SPEAKER_01: It is not a, like, I can't think of a
41:27
analog to this where the progressive guy has won the primary in
41:32
effect so far in
41:34
SPEAKER_01: advance of the actual primary date that he has to choose.
41:39
Do I switch into general election mode now or do I try to get
41:44
the slate that I want
41:46
SPEAKER_01: to run with nominated?
41:48
SPEAKER_01: And it doesn't strike me as crazier and inappropriate that he's like,
41:53
SPEAKER_01: look,
41:53
I'm going to be the top of this ticket along with whoever wins
41:56
the governor's
41:58
nomination and I would like that ticket to look a certain way I
42:04
think that like in
42:04
my strategic view of politics or my ideological view of
42:08
politics this would be the
42:09
best roster and I have a lot of clout so I just don't I don't
42:14
see it as some sort
42:14
of grave offense or like a thumb in the eye of like if it
42:21
continued beyond the
42:23
SPEAKER_00: primary I'm just saying like
42:27
I guess my take on this whole thing is that I what I have seen
42:34
then since the story
42:36
broke is this kind of tripling down on factionalism from the
42:43
most enthusiastic
42:46
Plattner supporters and I get that and you know candidates
42:49
don't completely control
42:51
SPEAKER_00: their supporters but I think I mean it's good faith
42:56
SPEAKER_00: Advice to Plattner and his team.
43:02
SPEAKER_00: You know,
43:02
SPEAKER_00: none of this stuff has a ton of substance to it,
43:07
SPEAKER_00: though it clearly bothers various people on some level.
43:12
SPEAKER_00: And Susan Collins is a Republican,
43:16
and she's running for re-election in a good year for Democrats
43:19
in a blue state that
43:20
SPEAKER_00: is trending blue.
43:22
SPEAKER_00: And he has just a very strong case that
43:27
Everyone who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 in Maine should
43:30
just vote for the
43:31
SPEAKER_00: Democratic nominee in Maine.
43:33
And I hope that he takes this moment of wobbliness around his
43:40
campaign to just
43:42
SPEAKER_00: think about making that case,
43:45
SPEAKER_00: you know?
43:45
SPEAKER_00: Like, what can he do?
43:48
SPEAKER_00: Not to the people who are, like, the most...
43:51
Fanatically pro-Israel of moderate Democrats who are always
43:55
going to want to keep
43:55
him at arm's length but just people who don't particularly
43:59
agree with his factional
44:01
message but who do agree with the we should beat Susan Collins
44:06
message like what
44:08
can he do to reach out to those people to make those people
44:11
feel good about Graham
44:12
SPEAKER_00: Plattner
44:14
SPEAKER_00: because that's the margin.
44:16
SPEAKER_00: Because,
44:16
SPEAKER_00: you know,
44:17
SPEAKER_00: Susan Collins,
44:18
SPEAKER_00: for all the problems she's going to face,
44:21
SPEAKER_00: running in an increasingly blue state in a strong year,
44:23
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
44:23
SPEAKER_00: Collins won in 2020.
44:25
SPEAKER_00: Collins won in 2008.
44:27
So,
44:27
like,
44:27
we know Susan Collins has won in bad cycles for Republicans,
44:31
right?
44:31
SPEAKER_00: The contested vote.
44:33
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
44:33
SPEAKER_00: I'm always making the case in these different races that it's like,
44:36
SPEAKER_00: you know,
44:37
SPEAKER_00: like,
44:37
SPEAKER_00: the swing voters who Tallarico needs...
44:42
are Bush,
44:43
Bush,
44:43
McCain,
44:44
Romney,
44:44
Trump,
44:45
Trump,
44:45
Trump voters who just don't like Ken Paxton.
44:48
And that's tough,
44:49
you know,
44:49
and he's got to like say some conservative shit,
44:51
et cetera.
44:52
SPEAKER_00: That's not the situation in Maine, right?
44:54
SPEAKER_00: Like the swing voters in Maine are moderate Democrats,
44:58
SPEAKER_00: you know,
45:00
SPEAKER_00: like really normie,
45:02
SPEAKER_00: boring establishment Democrats.
45:05
SPEAKER_00: Plattner beat those people in his primary and like he already beat them.
45:10
and now he needs to get them back on his team and get them in
45:15
his bandwagon.
45:17
SPEAKER_00: And it shouldn't be that hard to do, honestly.
45:20
I'm going to vouch for your good faith here because the truth
45:23
is your factional
45:24
SPEAKER_01: interest is in the opposite.
45:28
It's in this scandal or this series of scandals plus Plattner's
45:32
approach to
45:33
SPEAKER_01: politics,
45:35
SPEAKER_01: weakening him such that he wins but barely.
45:40
SPEAKER_01: And then that way you- Well, I think that's right.
45:42
SPEAKER_01: Like,
45:43
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
45:43
SPEAKER_01: since everyone's,
45:45
the Plattner diehards and you both agree that he should be the
45:48
next senator- Yeah,
45:49
SPEAKER_00: yeah,
45:49
SPEAKER_00: yeah,
45:50
SPEAKER_00: yeah,
45:50
SPEAKER_00: yeah,
45:50
SPEAKER_00: sure.
45:50
SPEAKER_01: Like,
45:51
SPEAKER_01: what you want then is a case to make that like,
45:53
SPEAKER_01: yes,
45:54
SPEAKER_01: you won this race,
45:54
SPEAKER_01: but the approach should not be replicated in redder states.
45:58
SPEAKER_01: I think that that's fair enough, right?
45:59
SPEAKER_01: Yes, absolutely.
46:00
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
46:02
SPEAKER_01: And I think that there is actually some chance-
46:06
SPEAKER_01: that the latest revelations are worse than the earlier ones,
46:12
SPEAKER_01: in part because they date to more recently,
46:15
SPEAKER_01: but also in part because they touch on aspects of modern,
46:26
SPEAKER_01: particularly male,
46:26
but modern internet life that I think is going to strike a lot
46:29
of elderly Maine
46:30
SPEAKER_01: voters as a bit.
46:32
SPEAKER_00: Yes, sure.
46:33
SPEAKER_00: Okay, so let me, I want to,
46:36
I'm gonna say like after I thought about it because like my
46:38
first reaction was like
46:39
was like yours it's like nobody should should cheat on anybody
46:44
it's like it's like
46:44
a a bad thing to do but it's also a very common human failing
46:49
and and I think that
46:51
the public has made its peace with that for the most part in
46:54
its politicians um but
46:56
like when Plattner emerged on the scene and the first
47:00
revelations happen like I um
47:04
SPEAKER_01: He reminds me of people I grew up with, right?
47:06
Like many of the people I went to high school with or who were
47:10
a year or two up on
47:11
SPEAKER_01: me or whatever,
47:13
SPEAKER_01: like many of them enlisted after 9-11.
47:20
Many of them are like are or were until very recently,
47:23
like very rough around the edges.
47:26
SPEAKER_01: I think most of them would not make very good senators,
47:29
SPEAKER_01: but some of them have like come out on the other side
47:32
of like that difficult period okay and they like you know they
47:35
have impulses and
47:36
demons that they keep in check and they're not always perfect
47:39
about it but they
47:41
have like real self-knowledge like I think in a way I think
47:44
Ruben Gallego is like a
47:46
senator who's led an imperfect life or whatever but he's like
47:50
conscious of how his
47:51
SPEAKER_01: experiences have affected him and you know what his task is right
47:56
and like I also think that unlike with a governor or a
47:59
president there's nothing
48:00
really unitary about a senator so like a single senator can
48:04
maybe do a lot of
48:05
damage but it's not it's kind of a fake job yeah right and like
48:12
so if Platter had
48:14
like some kind of meltdown on the campaign trail where it was
48:17
became clear that all
48:19
the apologies were insincere and all the explanations were lies
48:21
then I'd be like
48:22
SPEAKER_01: okay this is actually we're like
48:26
SPEAKER_01: Vote blue no matter who, but this is pretty disqualifying.
48:32
SPEAKER_01: The old age main voters thing,
48:35
SPEAKER_01: I think,
48:37
SPEAKER_01: turns less on the like,
48:39
SPEAKER_01: I was a drunk,
48:39
SPEAKER_01: I got a bad tattoo,
48:41
SPEAKER_01: I mouthed off about women on the internet.
48:45
SPEAKER_01: And more about this sexting, dating website stuff.
48:52
SPEAKER_01: Because it struck me as a little weird.
48:54
SPEAKER_01: So Platinum and I are very close to the same age.
48:57
I'm not a veteran I got my bullet wounds the old fashioned way
49:02
but I didn't have my
49:04
shit super well together in my 20s so at first I'm like this is
49:09
all legible to me I
49:10
get how somebody could go from that to strong ideas about
49:14
politics to getting into
49:15
politics officially but then like everything else is different
49:19
like my online life
49:21
SPEAKER_01: throughout adulthood has been public it's been under my own name
49:26
SPEAKER_01: I used mass market social media, right?
49:28
SPEAKER_01: Like Facebook and Twitter.
49:29
SPEAKER_01: I was never on niche message boards.
49:33
SPEAKER_01: I've never been on an internet date in my life, right?
49:36
SPEAKER_01: I had never- Oh, you're missing out.
49:39
SPEAKER_01: I had never heard of Kik.
49:43
SPEAKER_01: But I'm aware that these platforms, they foster toxic subcultures, right?
49:48
SPEAKER_01: They encourage bad behavior, right?
49:50
they get people spun up about a lot of weird ideas and
49:52
obsessions so like I still
49:55
see how all this kind of happened but I'm you know it's
50:00
starting to get weird for
50:01
me and I'm 43 and I think Plattner's 40 or 41 or something like
50:03
that and I'm like
50:05
so what does a typical 50 year old look at this and see like or
50:08
a 60 year old or a
50:09
70 year old right they're like I went to war it fucked me up I
50:14
did some stupid shit
50:15
I got it together like I know a bunch of grizzled old men who'd
50:18
be like yeah I get
50:19
SPEAKER_01: that right
50:21
I went to war I got fucked up I did some stupid shit I got my
50:24
shit back together I
50:26
got married I went on kick I put a bunch of shirtless pictures
50:30
of myself on the
50:31
internet like then I feel like there's like just a generational
50:36
issue here that is
50:38
like maybe going to make a lot of the people who thought they
50:40
were foreplant or
50:41
reconsider and it sounds like to you like from like your
50:45
anecdotal evidence that
50:47
SPEAKER_01: may be happening
50:48
and I like my only hope is that like a he's shown the skill
50:51
that he can like he can
50:53
reel these people back in he's very charismatic he's very
50:56
energetic he goes out and
50:57
he talks to people face to face he explains himself well um I
51:01
think it would be a
51:02
mistake for Democrats to freak out so bad that they fuck up
51:06
this primary or
51:07
something like that because at some point very soon we're maybe
51:11
living in it now
51:12
like this is just what the candidate field is going to be it's
51:16
going to be a bunch
51:16
SPEAKER_01: of people who came up
51:18
Like learning about politics on message boards and meeting
51:22
dates online and
51:23
SPEAKER_01: probably sending a bunch of embarrassing text messages,
51:27
SPEAKER_01: maybe some like nude photos.
51:30
SPEAKER_01: And if you say we're the party,
51:33
SPEAKER_01: that if it turns out you did that,
51:35
SPEAKER_01: we're going to all have a prude freak out and ditch you.
51:38
SPEAKER_01: I think that's bad.
51:42
SPEAKER_00: I guess, I mean, I totally agree with that.
51:44
SPEAKER_00: I just like, I'm...
51:46
SPEAKER_00: I'm seriously,
51:47
SPEAKER_00: though,
51:47
SPEAKER_00: I'm like,
51:48
SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to say that,
51:52
SPEAKER_00: like,
51:54
SPEAKER_00: Plattner people,
51:55
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
51:56
SPEAKER_00: everybody everywhere,
51:57
SPEAKER_00: you know,
51:57
SPEAKER_00: you need to think about,
51:59
SPEAKER_00: like,
51:59
SPEAKER_00: who are your marginal voters?
52:03
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
52:05
SPEAKER_00: And when it seemed like Plattner was going to just,
52:08
SPEAKER_00: like,
52:08
SPEAKER_00: spike the football,
52:10
SPEAKER_00: right,
52:10
SPEAKER_00: when his Kalshi odds were at,
52:12
SPEAKER_00: like,
52:12
SPEAKER_00: 92%,
52:12
SPEAKER_00: I did get
52:16
Why the progressive factionalists who annoy me were like,
52:21
well,
52:21
whatever.
52:22
SPEAKER_00: Like, we're just going to win this thing and we're going to spike it in.
52:25
SPEAKER_00: And I just,
52:26
SPEAKER_00: I sincerely hope that they develop a little bit of self-doubt about,
52:33
SPEAKER_00: you know,
52:33
SPEAKER_00: like,
52:33
SPEAKER_00: they want Plattner to win more than anybody else does.
52:37
SPEAKER_00: And,
52:37
SPEAKER_00: like,
52:38
SPEAKER_00: for Plattner to win,
52:39
SPEAKER_00: he needs to run a campaign that is targeting the people who are not
52:46
SPEAKER_00: jumping for joy at the content of the Graham Plattner primary message.
52:51
SPEAKER_00: You know, like, he should run a Brian Boyler campaign.
52:54
Like,
52:54
he should...
52:55
Like,
52:56
Maine is the place where that actually makes sense.
52:58
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
52:59
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
53:00
SPEAKER_00: We're just amping up the partisanship, right?
53:03
SPEAKER_00: Like, the pure, pure partisanship.
53:06
SPEAKER_00: And, like...
53:08
SPEAKER_00: Saying,
53:09
SPEAKER_00: like,
53:09
SPEAKER_00: you don't care about anything and just,
53:11
SPEAKER_00: like,
53:12
SPEAKER_00: talking about Donald Trump and how he's a criminal and,
53:15
SPEAKER_00: you know,
53:15
SPEAKER_00: how he belongs in jail and blah,
53:17
SPEAKER_00: blah,
53:17
SPEAKER_00: blah,
53:17
SPEAKER_00: blah,
53:17
SPEAKER_00: blah,
53:18
SPEAKER_00: blah.
53:18
SPEAKER_00: It's like, that's a good message.
53:21
SPEAKER_00: It's a good way to go.
53:22
SPEAKER_01: And he's doing that.
53:23
SPEAKER_01: Like, he...
53:24
he found his vibes way to me that way like he's talking about
53:27
how he might get
53:28
arrested if he you know for like he has done some of it but I
53:31
saw they they they
53:33
count they put out like a counter punching video that was like
53:36
another one of these
53:37
SPEAKER_00: like oligarchy things and like I just I think they should reconsider that
53:43
SPEAKER_00: approach.
53:44
There's a little too much believing in their own bullshit about
53:49
him flipping Trump
53:50
SPEAKER_01: voters in Northern Maine.
53:52
I think some of the people that are very resistant to your
53:56
guidance on this stuff
53:57
SPEAKER_01: are going to start seeing the wisdom of some.
53:59
SPEAKER_00: And also,
54:00
SPEAKER_00: just to say,
54:01
SPEAKER_00: again,
54:01
SPEAKER_00: to look at another success story for these guys,
54:04
SPEAKER_00: like,
54:04
SPEAKER_00: the elite interpersonal aspect of politics does matter.
54:09
SPEAKER_00: Mamdani,
54:11
after he won the nomination and then had to run again against
54:14
Andrew Cuomo,
54:15
SPEAKER_00: like,
54:15
SPEAKER_00: tried to get Democrats to endorse him.
54:19
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
54:19
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
54:19
SPEAKER_00: He was like, I'm the Democratic nominee now.
54:22
SPEAKER_00: Like, you guys should get on the team because I'm the Democratic nominee.
54:28
SPEAKER_00: And like,
54:29
SPEAKER_00: You know, whatever.
54:30
SPEAKER_00: It's been a few days.
54:31
SPEAKER_00: They've been dealing with crisis management.
54:34
The difficulty with interpersonal scandals is,
54:37
you know,
54:38
you've got to get your wife on board.
54:40
SPEAKER_00: He did.
54:41
SPEAKER_00: No, I know.
54:42
SPEAKER_00: But I'm just saying like that takes time.
54:43
SPEAKER_00: You know, like that's like the number one principle.
54:46
But like having having gotten his wife on board over the next
54:49
couple of weeks,
54:50
SPEAKER_00: like they need to get Janet Mills.
54:53
SPEAKER_00: on board with this campaign.
54:54
SPEAKER_00: They need to get Shelley Pingury on board with this campaign.
54:58
They're going to struggle to get Jared Golden on board with
55:00
this campaign,
55:01
SPEAKER_00: but they ought to try.
55:03
SPEAKER_00: You know,
55:03
SPEAKER_00: they need to get some Democrats,
55:05
Democratic incumbent senators who are not like in the fight
55:08
club on board with this
55:09
SPEAKER_00: campaign,
55:10
SPEAKER_00: talking about how it's good for,
55:12
SPEAKER_00: you know,
55:13
whatever Maria Carnahan's bullshit is to like get Grant
55:17
Plattner in the Senate.
55:19
SPEAKER_01: And like, but just real quick,
55:22
If Matt Dunlap wins in November,
55:26
how many cycles do you think he'll keep his seat for?
55:30
SPEAKER_00: Matt Dunlap?
55:32
SPEAKER_01: Mm-hmm.
55:33
SPEAKER_01: He'd be representing the Golden District.
55:34
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
55:36
SPEAKER_00: Zero.
55:37
SPEAKER_00: Zero cycles.
55:38
SPEAKER_01: I mean, one cycle.
55:39
SPEAKER_01: He'd lose the next cycle.
55:40
SPEAKER_00: No, I'm not even accepting the premise.
55:42
SPEAKER_01: Oh.
55:44
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
55:44
SPEAKER_00: He's just not going to win.
55:46
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
55:46
SPEAKER_00: All right.
55:47
SPEAKER_00: Now, Maine ought to consider redistricting.
55:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, fair enough.
55:51
Maine is actually the one blue state that hasn't been in the
55:54
redistricting mix
55:55
SPEAKER_00: because they're like,
55:56
SPEAKER_00: oh,
55:56
SPEAKER_00: well,
55:56
SPEAKER_00: we have both House seats.
55:58
SPEAKER_00: But Maine is, in effect, a pro-Republican gerrymander at this point.
56:02
SPEAKER_00: And they should unravel it and just select two lips.
56:05
SPEAKER_01: I just want to cause some trouble for us down the line, but we can defer.
56:11
SPEAKER_01: We can defer.
56:11
SPEAKER_01: We have gone super long.
56:12
SPEAKER_01: Okay,
56:13
SPEAKER_01: we are going to talk about something totally different on the other side,
56:16
the looming economic and budget carnage awaiting the United
56:21
States and the fact
56:22
SPEAKER_01: that Democrats are probably going to have to be the ones to clean it up.
56:26
SPEAKER_01: If you want to hear that part of the conversation,
56:28
SPEAKER_01: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.