Latest / The President's Daily Brief / October 14th, 2026: Iran's Oil Exports Have Collapsed to Zero & Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemen

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October 14th, 2026: Iran's Oil Exports Have Collapsed to Zero & Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemen · The President's Daily Brief

0:12
It's Wednesday,
0:13
the 14th of October.
0:14
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:17
I'm Mike Baker,
0:17
your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:20
Alright,
0:21
let's get briefed.
0:22
First up,
0:23
Iran's oil exports have reportedly collapsed to zero,
0:27
and an increasingly desperate regime is lashing
0:29
out with an aggressive wave of attacks on
0:32
commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
0:35
Later in the show,
0:36
Saudi Arabia launches a new round of air strikes on
0:38
Yemen's capital in its escalating war against the Iran-backed Houthis.
0:43
Plus 5 Russian ballistic missiles strike civilian infrastructure in Kiev,
0:47
as President Zelensky says Ukraine received no
0:51
advance warning from its intelligence partners.
0:54
And in today's back of the brief,
0:55
fancy being a posh diplomat in a terrific Mediterranean country.
0:59
That sounds like a good job,
1:01
doesn't it?
1:01
There is a job opening in Greece.
1:04
Apparently the position does not require prior experience,
1:07
but ideally you do need to be able to refrain from sketchy activity.
1:12
But first,
1:12
today's PDB spotlight.
1:14
Iran's economic situation is becoming increasingly desperate
1:18
after months of pressure from the American blockade.
1:20
New figures indicate that the regime's oil exports have officially fallen to zero,
1:26
and Tehran's response appears to be a simple one.
1:28
If Iran can't sell its oil,
1:30
it's going to make sure nobody else can sell theirs without paying a price.
1:35
According to Reuters,
1:36
new data from the energy intelligence firm Vortexa
1:39
indicates that Iran has not exported a single barrel of crude oil so far in October.
1:45
Now that's based on tanker tracking data,
1:47
and it
1:48
doesn't necessarily capture every shipment,
1:51
but it represents a remarkable deterioration in Iran's position.
1:55
We've been tracking the steady decline in Iranian
1:57
oil exports for months as the American blockade
2:00
has squeezed Tehran's most important source of foreign revenue.
2:03
And remember this is an economy that was already in serious trouble.
2:08
Inflation has been running at extraordinary levels.
2:11
The Iranian currency has lost significant value,
2:13
and ordinary Iranians
2:15
are facing increasingly difficult economic conditions.
2:18
Oil revenue is one of the regime's most important financial lifelines,
2:22
of course.
2:23
It helps fund government operations,
2:25
supports the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and
2:28
its various proxy groups in the region.
2:31
And provides the foreign currency that Tehran needs to purchase goods from abroad.
2:35
Now,
2:36
according to the latest figures,
2:37
that lifeline has effectively been cut off.
2:40
But while Iran's own oil shipments have reportedly ground to a halt,
2:44
Tehran is stepping up its attacks against
2:47
commercial vessels carrying everybody else's oil,
2:50
and the scale of those attacks is
2:51
becoming difficult to ignore.
2:53
According to the Financial Times,
2:55
ships operating in and around the Strait of Hormuz are facing the most
2:59
intense wave of Iranian missile and drone attacks since the war began.
3:04
The newspaper reports 24 attacks against commercial
3:07
vessels over a recent two-week period.
3:10
6 of those attacks occurred on the 11th of October.
3:13
And the violence isn't confined to the strait.
3:16
Additional reporting from the National
3:18
describes attacks against tankers near the Omani coast,
3:21
including a drone strike against a vessel near the port of Sohar.
3:25
The consequences are significant.
3:27
Ship owners are reconsidering whether to send their vessels through the region,
3:31
while energy shipments have fallen sharply.
3:33
According to the Financial Times,
3:35
approximately 15.5 million barrels of oil pass through Hormuz each day
3:40
on average
3:41
in September.
3:43
On the 11th of October
3:44
that figure reportedly dropped to just 2.9 million barrels.
3:49
Now that is a comparison between a monthly average and a single day,
3:53
but it illustrates just how severely the
3:55
latest attacks are disrupting commercial traffic.
3:58
And here's what makes this particularly interesting.
4:01
For months,
4:02
Iran has been threatening to use its position near the Strait of Hormuz
4:05
to impose economic costs on Washington and its regional allies,
4:09
but Tehran's leverage has been weakening as other
4:12
Gulf producers found ways to restore their exports,
4:15
while Iran's own shipments continued declining.
4:18
Now with Iranian oil exports reportedly at a standstill,
4:22
the regime appears to be taking a much more aggressive approach.
4:26
If the US is going to prevent Iran from selling its oil,
4:29
the regime seems determined
4:30
to make the blockade as expensive as possible for everyone else,
4:34
and not just the Americans,
4:35
of course.
4:36
Saudi Arabia,
4:37
Kuwait,
4:37
Iraq,
4:38
the UAE,
4:39
and other Gulf producers all have enormous economic interests
4:43
tied to the movement of energy through the region.
4:45
So do their customers in Asia and elsewhere.
4:49
By attacking commercial shipping,
4:51
Iran can threaten those interests,
4:52
increase the cost of transporting oil,
4:54
and potentially
4:55
encourage other governments to pressure Washington into easing the blockade,
4:59
at least that appears to be the regime's calculation.
5:03
And from Tehran's perspective,
5:05
well,
5:05
there may be few other options.
5:07
The regime cannot realistically defeat the
5:09
US in a conventional military confrontation.
5:12
Its economy is under extraordinary pressure.
5:15
And its ability to generate revenue from
5:17
oil exports has now been severely restricted,
5:21
but it still possesses missiles and drones and the ability to threaten shipping
5:26
across one of the world's most important energy corridors,
5:29
and that gives Iran a way to inflict damage beyond its borders,
5:32
even as its own economic position continues to deteriorate.
5:37
Now every additional attack against a commercial vessel
5:40
does increase the possibility of a wider military confrontation,
5:44
and the more damage that Iran inflicts on its neighbors' energy trade,
5:48
well,
5:48
the more incentive those governments have
5:50
to support tougher action against Tehran,
5:54
and that could prove particularly dangerous as the
5:56
US reinforces its military presence in the region,
5:59
and President Trump weighs another round of strikes after the midterm elections.
6:04
So,
6:04
the American blockade appears to be accomplishing what Washington intended,
6:08
depriving Tehran of oil revenue and placing extraordinary pressure on the regime.
6:13
But
6:14
rather than force them to the negotiating table in a meaningful way,
6:18
that pressure is making Iran more aggressive.
6:22
All right.
6:22
Coming up next,
6:23
Saudi Arabia launches additional airstrikes on Yemen's capital,
6:27
and Ukraine's president
6:29
says Western intelligence failed to warn Kiev
6:31
about an incoming Russian missile attack.
6:34
I'll be right back.
6:37
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6:38
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Welcome back to the PDB.
7:51
The war in Yemen continues to escalate,
7:54
with Saudi Arabia launching another round of air strikes against the Houthis
7:58
this time
7:59
targeting oil facilities near the capital Sana'a.
8:02
According to the Associated Press,
8:03
the Saudi-led coalition carried out the
8:05
strikes on Tuesday against an installation
8:08
belonging to the Yemeni oil company in the western part of the city.
8:12
Before the attack,
8:13
the coalition issued a warning telling civilians to evacuate the area.
8:17
Residents subsequently reported hearing explosions,
8:20
although the extent of the damage remains unclear.
8:23
The Iran-backed Houthi-controlled oil company claims its storage tanks were
8:27
empty and that the strikes won't disrupt fuel supplies,
8:30
but that apparently did little to reassure the local population.
8:34
Residents began lining up at gas stations,
8:37
worried that the attacks could lead to shortages.
8:40
The Houthis meanwhile are threatening retaliation.
8:43
Their military spokesman Yayaari warned that
8:46
the Saudi capital could face additional attacks.
8:49
Now we've been tracking the Saudi-backed offensive against the Houthis,
8:53
including the battle for territory near the Bab al Mandeb Strait.
8:56
Saudi-backed forces have reportedly pushed the rebels
8:59
back from positions immediately overlooking the waterway,
9:03
but the Houthis remain entrenched elsewhere
9:05
around the city of Taiz.
9:07
Yemeni authorities say Houthi attacks have killed another 6 people
9:10
and wounded 18 more.
9:12
So despite the Saudi offensive,
9:14
the Houthis are continuing to fight on multiple fronts
9:17
while demonstrating that they can still
9:19
threaten targets deep inside Saudi's territory.
9:22
Meanwhile,
9:23
we're getting more information about those
9:24
deadly attacks on Riyadh's international airport,
9:27
and according to a new Reuters investigation,
9:30
Saudi Arabia stopped issuing public warnings about incoming
9:33
missiles and drones days before those strikes.
9:37
Over the past week,
9:37
4 attacks on Riyadh killed at least 18 people and wounded more than 30,
9:42
but according to Reuters,
9:43
the Saudi government's public warning system had gone silent.
9:47
Beginning in May,
9:47
Saudi civil defense authorities
9:49
had been sending alerts to residents through mobile phones and social media
9:53
whenever missiles or drones threatened the kingdom.
9:56
The last such warning,
9:57
though,
9:57
went out on the 29th of September.
9:59
Then for nearly two weeks,
10:02
nothing.
10:02
No public alerts ahead of the four attacks on Riyadh,
10:05
including the deadly strike against its international airport.
10:09
The warnings though finally resumed on Monday.
10:12
Now here's where the Reuters investigation gets more interesting.
10:15
According to two officials familiar with the matter,
10:18
representatives of an allied Western government
10:21
had asked Saudi authorities why the public alerts had stopped.
10:25
They were reportedly told that the warnings had become disruptive,
10:28
with residents complaining
10:30
about being awakened in the middle of the night.
10:32
Eh,
10:33
it's just another missile.
10:34
Don't bother waking me up.
10:35
Now,
10:36
to be clear,
10:36
Saudi officials have not confirmed that explanation,
10:39
and Riyadh has offered no public account of why the warnings stopped.
10:44
Even while Saudi residents were not receiving public alerts,
10:47
Western embassies in Riyadh
10:48
were circulating their own warnings to diplomatic personnel,
10:52
drawing on intelligence and information from Saudi authorities.
10:56
But Reuters reports that even those embassies received
10:59
no advance warning before Saturday's deadly airport strike,
11:02
and it's important to distinguish two separate problems here.
11:06
One is whether Saudi authorities adequately
11:08
warned civilians about incoming attacks.
11:11
The other is why the kingdom's sophisticated air defenses
11:15
failed to stop the weapons before reaching their targets,
11:18
and together those failures expose the larger challenge facing Riyadh.
11:22
Saudi Arabia is escalating its military campaign in Yemen,
11:25
hoping to weaken the Iran-backed Houthis and
11:28
push them out from strategically important territory.
11:31
But the Houthis don't necessarily have to defeat the Saudi military
11:34
to inflict serious damage.
11:36
They can target airports,
11:38
oil facilities,
11:39
pipelines,
11:39
and
11:40
other infrastructure,
11:41
forcing Riyadh
11:42
to defend an enormous amount of
11:44
territory against weapons that are relatively cheap
11:47
compared with the systems needed to intercept them.
11:51
And the damage extends beyond the casualties and destruction.
11:54
Every successful attack
11:56
raises questions about Saudi Arabia's
11:57
ability to protect international airlines,
12:00
foreign investors,
12:01
and the economic development projects that are at the center
12:05
of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plans for the kingdom.
12:10
OK.
12:10
Turning to the Ukraine conflict,
12:12
as relations between President Trump and President Zelensky grow more strained,
12:16
Kiev is asking why its partners provided no warning
12:20
before 5 Russian ballistic missiles struck the capital.
12:23
Zelensky says those missiles hit civilian infrastructure overnight.
12:27
In a post on X Tuesday,
12:28
he called the barrage.
12:30
Particularly vile,
12:32
as he explained,
12:33
quote,
12:33
This is precisely what helps prevent people from being killed
12:36
when there is an early warning
12:38
about ballistic missiles,
12:39
end quote.
12:41
Now,
12:41
to be clear,
12:42
Zelensky did not name the partners involved
12:44
or say Washington had stopped sharing intelligence,
12:47
but with Kiev relying so heavily on
12:49
American intelligence to spot incoming Russian missiles,
12:52
that did raise an obvious question for the White House.
12:55
Was the US still providing that support?
12:58
Asked about the situation Tuesday,
13:00
Trump said the US has not stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine
13:03
and continues providing that assistance in the hopes of bringing the war to an end.
13:08
A senior Ukrainian official suggested the missing warning
13:11
could have a different explanation.
13:14
Speaking anonymously because he was not authorized to comment publicly,
13:18
the official said it had been described as a failure,
13:21
potentially resulting from circumstances.
13:23
Such as weather conditions rather than a
13:25
deliberate decision to stop sharing information,
13:28
so intelligence sharing may be continuing,
13:31
but that still leaves the question of why this warning never came.
13:34
American systems can detect Russian
13:36
ballistic missile launches almost immediately.
13:39
Passing that information to Kiev
13:41
gives authorities time to warn civilians and prepare air defenses,
13:44
including the US-made Patriot systems
13:47
that Ukraine relies on to intercept incoming missiles.
13:50
With weapons like Russia's Iskander short-range ballistic missiles,
13:54
that time can amount to just a few minutes between launch and impact.
13:59
Ukraine is already struggling to defend
14:01
against Moscow's intensified aerial campaign,
14:03
which combines fast moving ballistic missiles
14:06
with high flying jet powered drones.
14:09
It also faces a shortage of Patriot interceptors
14:12
partly because the American-led war against Iran
14:15
has increased demand for those weapons.
14:18
The missing warning also comes at a difficult moment between Washington and Kiev.
14:22
We've been following the latest dispute between Trump and Zelensky
14:26
over Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries.
14:29
Trump has repeatedly urged Kiev to stop those strikes,
14:33
blaming them for record American diesel prices,
14:37
well,
14:37
rather than the war in Iran.
14:39
And then on Saturday,
14:40
Trump suggested Ukraine should replace Zelensky with
14:42
a president more willing to negotiate,
14:44
accusing him of not doing enough to end the war.
14:47
Really,
14:47
how about Putin?
14:49
To be fair,
14:49
we've seen Trump and Zelensky go back and forth before,
14:52
finding common ground on occasion and then falling into another public clash.
14:56
But this may be their lowest point
14:58
since that infamous exchange in the Oval Office
15:01
back in February of 2025.
15:05
On Sunday,
15:05
Trump was presenting what he said was progress toward ending the fighting.
15:09
He announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an
15:12
immediate ceasefire on attacks against each other's energy infrastructure,
15:16
but as we've been tracking here on the PDB,
15:18
neither side knew about it.
15:20
Neither side confirmed at the time that a final agreement had been reached,
15:23
and Russia has yet to publicly accept the arrangement,
15:26
and negotiations reportedly remain
15:29
perhaps underway.
15:31
Zelensky says Ukraine has not struck Russian oil
15:33
refineries or other energy facilities in the two days
15:36
since Trump's announcement,
15:37
hoping that restraint
15:39
would bring relief from Russian attacks.
15:41
That has not happened.
15:42
He says Moscow,
15:43
however,
15:44
has continued attacking Ukrainian energy facilities
15:47
and infrastructure.
15:49
According to Zelensky,
15:50
Russia launched more than 100 drones and missiles overnight into Tuesday.
15:54
Some were intercepted,
15:55
but others reached their targets.
15:58
With winter fast approaching,
15:59
the consequences of those attacks
16:02
now
16:03
become more urgent.
16:05
And in today's back of the brief,
16:07
there's a vacancy for the top spot at the US embassy in Greece.
16:10
Oh,
16:11
get your resumes sorted out.
16:13
More on that when we come back.
16:16
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In today's back of the brief,
18:28
President Trump is cutting ties with his ambassador to Greece.
18:32
Uh,
18:32
Kimberly Guilfoyle confirmed that she's leaving after the president asked her
18:36
to resign following weeks of allegations about her finances and conduct.
18:41
New White House press secretary Katie Zakaria.
18:44
Announced the decision during her first briefing on Tuesday,
18:47
describing Gilfoyle as quote a wonderful asset to the team
18:51
and saying the administration wished her well.
18:53
Now,
18:53
in case you don't know that
18:55
this is Washington DC talk for
18:57
don't let the screen door hit you on the way out.
19:00
That polite send-off from the press secretary stood in
19:02
sharp contrast to Trump's assessment just one day earlier.
19:05
Asked about Gilfoyle's conduct by reporters,
19:08
he said,
19:08
quote,
19:09
We're not happy,
19:10
and acknowledged he was considering removing her.
19:13
Now this was someone with years of both
19:15
political and personal ties to the Trump family.
19:18
Gilfoyle's a former California prosecutor who
19:21
became a prominent Trump surrogate and fundraiser.
19:25
She spent several years in a relationship with Donald Trump Jr.
19:28
including four
19:29
during which they were engaged before they publicly
19:32
announced their split in December of 2024.
19:35
That's the same month
19:36
that Trump nominated her to represent the US in Greece.
19:40
Uh,
19:40
sorry about the breakup.
19:42
Here's a consolation prize.
19:44
Now the questions surrounding her tenure as ambassador involve money,
19:47
access,
19:48
and whose interests she was actually representing.
19:52
Let's begin with the $100,000 American Express bill.
19:55
That's a lot of jack.
19:57
Last week,
19:57
the Wall Street Journal reported that shortly before
19:59
her Senate confirmation hearing in July of 2025,
20:03
Gilfoyle asked prominent Trump donor Eric Dietters to pay it off.
20:07
According to messages reviewed by the Journal,
20:09
she urged Dietters to wire the money directly to American Express.
20:13
Suggesting that doing so would not leave a paper trail
20:16
while also offering to help him
20:19
gain access to senior Trump administration officials.
20:22
Oh,
20:22
that sounds kind of like,
20:24
I suppose,
20:25
pay for play.
20:26
Dieter says he never made the payment,
20:28
and Gilfoyle disputes the account entirely.
20:31
Her attorney challenged the authenticity of
20:32
the messages and offered another explanation.
20:35
He said Gilfoyle had been paid to speak at events before her nomination
20:39
and was still
20:40
owed a balance for traveling to and supporting these patriotic events,
20:45
end quote.
20:46
But the questions about access
20:48
did not end with Dietters.
20:50
An earlier journal investigation reported that Guilfoyle
20:52
promoted the interests of Actor Group,
20:55
that's a Greek construction and energy company.
20:57
It also alleged that she allowed the company's registered lobbyist
21:01
to accompany her into private diplomatic meetings with senior officials.
21:05
Now,
21:05
obviously,
21:06
an American ambassador is supposed to advance American interests,
21:09
that's part of the job.
21:10
A company's lobbyist though,
21:12
has a somewhat narrower assignment.
21:15
And then came accounts of what was happening inside the embassy itself.
21:18
The Daily Mail reported that the State Department's Office of Inspector General
21:22
had opened an investigation into allegations
21:25
involving Gilfoyle's treatment of employees,
21:27
private travel,
21:28
acceptance of gifts,
21:29
and relationships with business interests.
21:32
Sources cited by the newspaper
21:34
described a hostile workplace
21:36
in which Gilfoyle allegedly threatened to fire employees.
21:39
They also accused her of
21:41
demoting members of a security detail
21:43
over relatively minor incidents.
21:46
One officer was reportedly disciplined after
21:48
failing to answer a 4 a.m. request for ice while she was vacationing in Mykonos.
21:54
To be fair,
21:55
you know,
21:55
when the mood for ice strikes,
21:57
it really doesn't matter what time it is.
21:59
You can't be drinking tepid beverages at 4 in the morning.
22:02
Come on.
22:03
Gilfoyle's attorney rejected the allegations,
22:05
saying,
22:05
quote,
22:06
Any implication of wrongdoing by the ambassador
22:08
is unsupported,
22:09
end quote.
22:11
Now the reports naturally drew scrutiny from congressional Democrats,
22:14
while Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Gilfoyle
22:18
during a visit to Greece last week.
22:19
He described her as quote,
22:21
a strong ambassador.
22:23
Now again,
22:23
that's Washington DC talk,
22:24
for
22:25
we're about to show her the door.
22:27
By Tuesday,
22:28
Trump was putting some distance between himself and his ambassador to Greece.
22:31
He said that Gilfoyle had been doing a good job,
22:34
quote,
22:35
But we didn't like what we were reading.
22:36
Now,
22:37
to continue my translation assistance for those
22:39
not familiar with Washington DC talk,
22:41
that means
22:42
she gone.
22:44
In a lengthy post on X,
22:45
Gilfoyle called serving as ambassador the honor of a lifetime,
22:48
thanking Trump and Rubio.
22:51
She also issued a sweeping denial,
22:53
quote,
22:53
These allegations are false,
22:55
and I intend to vigorously defend my name,
22:58
my reputation,
22:59
and my integrity,
23:00
end quote.
23:01
So
23:02
feel free to polish up your CVs and send them along to the US Department of State.
23:07
It would be considered a plus if you happen to have geopolitical experience,
23:12
managerial experience,
23:13
area knowledge,
23:14
speak the language,
23:15
and can do without ice in the wee small hours of the morning.
23:20
And that,
23:20
my friends,
23:21
is the president's daily Brief
23:23
for Wednesday,
23:24
the 14th of October.
23:25
If you have any questions or comments,
23:26
please reach out to me
23:27
at PDB@hefirsttv.com.
23:30
And finally,
23:31
if you find yourself with a few minutes on your hands,
23:33
I hope you'll wander on over to YouTube and
23:36
check out our not yet award winning YouTube channel.
23:39
Just search up at President's Daily Brief,
23:41
and if you like what you see,
23:43
maybe hit that subscribe button.
23:45
I'm Mike Baker,
23:46
and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin.
23:49
Until then,
23:50
stay informed,
23:51
stay safe,
23:53
stay cool.