Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 269 - 5/1/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 269 - 5/1/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 269 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:29
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:37
  Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week is rolling on
• 0:41
  coming to an end. We got one more big day until
• 0:44
  Friday and then of course the weekend.
• 0:46
  But today is May 1st say goodbye to April.
• 0:49
  May is here and you know what today got is guys, today is my
• 0:53
  birthday. That's right, I'm getting old.
• 0:56
  I I can't believe I'm 38 years old, but I was born May 1st
• 0:59
  1987. So today is today's my b-day.
• 1:03
  So hopefully we can bring some some birthday juju to our bets
• 1:07
  tonight. Hopefully have the gambling gods
• 1:09
  smile down upon us. But I tell you what I'm having a
• 1:11
  pretty good day. Found out today that the new car
• 1:14
  will be available tomorrow, so very much looking forward to
• 1:18
  that. I was able to switch the
• 1:19
  insurance and go through all the hoops and set up the financing.
• 1:23
  So not none of that is great, but either way, I'm very much
• 1:26
  looking forward to driving in my brand new 2025 Subaru Outback.
• 1:32
  Yeah, you can make fun of me, but I am a, I'm a Subaru person.
• 1:35
  So very much looking forward to that.
• 1:37
  And of course, hopefully we can continue our winning ways today.
• 1:40
  I know it's a smaller than usual slate.
• 1:42
  There's only 11 games overall Major League Baseball, but I do
• 1:45
  have a three pack of plays for you, 3 plays here in Major
• 1:48
  League Baseball, kind of a pick'em type play and then a
• 1:51
  short favorite and then a little bit more of an expensive
• 1:53
  favorite. But as always, we're going to
• 1:55
  try to go 2 in one eek out a winning day.
• 1:58
  And I tell you what guys, I could have squeezed an NBA play
• 2:01
  out. There's one that I was kind of
• 2:03
  leaning on pretty hard. And then I was actually looking
• 2:05
  at the NHL, who which typically I love betting the NHL, but it
• 2:09
  was just kind of a weird year where the systems didn't really
• 2:12
  come through, was pretty much a coin flip.
• 2:14
  And I said, you know what? You know, if we have a good
• 2:16
  night in MLB and go 2 and one and have a winning night, but I
• 2:19
  forced an NHL play and I lose, then we could possibly have a
• 2:22
  losing night. So it's always kind of that
• 2:25
  decision you got to make for yourself, you know, do you want
• 2:28
  to bet plays across multiple sports?
• 2:31
  As long as they're sharp, they fit the model, boom, let them
• 2:33
  go. Or do you want to kind of lean
• 2:35
  on what's working for you, which for us is MLB.
• 2:37
  And my decision was, hey, let's stick with what's working, which
• 2:40
  is Major League Baseball. Also, I'm going out to my
• 2:43
  favorite restaurant tonight. The wife is taking me out to my
• 2:46
  favorite place with the most amazing steak tips and mashed
• 2:50
  potatoes. So these are the simple
• 2:51
  pleasures in life, I guess, when you're 38 years old.
• 2:54
  But anyway, guys 3 pack today, all MLB and hopefully we can
• 2:58
  keep our winning ways going because it was a good night last
• 3:00
  night. 2 and 1 + 0.46 units. Really the play of the night to
• 3:05
  me was the Baltimore Orioles and I was actually joking with my
• 3:09
  what is he, my brother and my cousin in law, My guy Michael,
• 3:13
  Congrats who married my cousin Carly went to his wedding a
• 3:16
  couple months ago in what was it, Annapolis, MD.
• 3:20
  But he's a big Baltimore Orioles fan and he was actually wished
• 3:23
  me happy birthday. And I said, you know what, Your
• 3:26
  O's came up bigly last night because the Orioles were a play
• 3:29
  that you feel is gross. They've been playing terrible.
• 3:32
  They're at home against the Yankees.
• 3:33
  Yankees are the better team. But we trusted the market, that
• 3:36
  dog to fave line move, even though it felt like, hey, I got
• 3:39
  to play it because it's a system match.
• 3:41
  Yet I feel like they're definitely going to lose and I'm
• 3:43
  wasting a unit. But no, they open as a dog flip
• 3:46
  to a favorite. We got some CLV -115 they close
• 3:50
  closer like -120 -, 125 and the Orioles got it done for the
• 3:54
  team, so it was great to see. I also got our Houston Rockets,
• 3:57
  Rockets which were a good sharp line move three and F up to 4.
• 4:02
  Great bet split favorite off a loss.
• 4:04
  They absolutely just came out a blaze in there to start and it
• 4:07
  got a little interesting at the end when they when OK C or not
• 4:10
  OK C, but Golden State put in the scrubs but still didn't
• 4:14
  really make it that close. Great to get a winner there.
• 4:16
  In the NBA, the only loser was the Mets.
• 4:19
  That was kind of frustrating because they had a lead 1.
• 4:21
  Nothing, I think going into the 7th gave him a few runs, but
• 4:25
  they actually had a really good chance to tie or win in the
• 4:28
  bottom of the ninth. They had a couple guys on.
• 4:30
  Tyrone Taylor started the bottom of the ninth with a home run.
• 4:33
  They're down 4 to 1 was 4 to 2 and they got a bunch of guys on.
• 4:36
  I think they had either bases loaded or second and third.
• 4:39
  And unfortunately, McNeil, what did he do?
• 4:41
  He popped out or grounded out to end it so Mets couldn't come
• 4:44
  through. But hey, 2 1/2 unit night.
• 4:46
  We'll take it, we'll reinvest it and we'll hopefully, you know,
• 4:49
  put it to some winners here for today.
• 4:52
  So that being said, smaller than usual slate on the B-day.
• 4:55
  Let's get right to it. I got some Major League Baseball
• 4:58
  to talk about and I'm loving Benton MLB on a daily basis.
• 5:01
  I hope you are too. So first one I want to mention,
• 5:04
  it's a kind of early start, early evening, 6:45 PM Eastern
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  Time. Let's take a trip to
• 5:10
  Philadelphia. Philadelphia Phillies hosting
• 5:12
  the Washington Nationals. Now let's set the stage.
• 5:15
  Talk to starting pitchers, line movement.
• 5:17
  I'll give you my play for this one.
• 5:19
  So Phillies come in 17 and 13 on the year.
• 5:21
  They've taken the first two games of this three-game series.
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  They won the opener 7:00 to 6:00 as a -, 195 home favorite.
• 5:28
  One again yesterday, 7:00 to 2:00 as a -, 255 home favorite.
• 5:32
  So in the series finale tonight, we have the Nats who are 13 and
• 5:35
  18. They're going with the righty
• 5:37
  Brad Lord. He's Owen, three with a 4.67
• 5:40
  ERA. Meanwhile, the Phills are going
• 5:42
  to counter with fellow righty Taiwan Walker, who's one and two
• 5:45
  with a 2.78 ERA. So what do you see across the
• 5:48
  market here? This game opened Philly around a
• 5:51
  -, 165 -, 170 home favorite Washington around a + 150 Rd.
• 5:57
  dog. And we've seen pretty much
• 5:59
  nothing but movement toward Philadelphia in this one, even
• 6:01
  though it's kind of a somewhat relative expensive chalk opener
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  movements all been toward Philly.
• 6:07
  Philly -165 -, 170 They've now been steamed up to around -175
• 6:14
  Some looks closer to -180 They even reached as high as -185
• 6:18
  earlier today. So it's really been nothing but
• 6:20
  one way movement in favor of Philadelphia.
• 6:22
  Now I got the Phillies -178 You might be able to find a -. 174
• 6:27
  right now. And as always, you know, whether
• 6:29
  it's a dog, a favorite, it's always bet to risk, not bet to
• 6:33
  win. So if you're playing the
• 6:34
  Phillies with me, I always want to say this because we have new
• 6:35
  people listening to the pod and they're like, oh, what are you
• 6:37
  doing betting a big favorite -175 you know -180 Philadelphia?
• 6:41
  Well, the important thing there is that every play you're
• 6:45
  risking 1 unit. So we're not risking if you're
• 6:47
  betting to win on Philly tonight and you got a -, 180, you'd have
• 6:51
  to risk 1.8 units to win one unit.
• 6:54
  When you're a flat bet, bet to risk versus bet to win better,
• 6:57
  which I am. And I would suggest you are too
• 6:59
  because it really protects you from bad losing nights and also
• 7:03
  increases your win percentage or out or basically your units one
• 7:07
  when you bet a dog with plus money.
• 7:09
  But if you're betting Philly -180 you're just risking your
• 7:13
  one unit trying to get a little more than 1/2 unit back.
• 7:15
  And you might say, oh, you're risking a lot to get a little in
• 7:17
  return. But the whole point being is if
• 7:20
  we bet Philly -180 to win and we risk 1.8 units and they lose, we
• 7:25
  lose 1.8 versus only losing 1. So the whole point is to
• 7:28
  mitigate your risk on favorites and maximizing your reward on on
• 7:32
  underdogs. But anyway, aside from the line
• 7:34
  move toward the Phills, I really like the bet split on
• 7:36
  Philadelphia, especially out at Circa in Vegas.
• 7:40
  Circa right now, 89% of money line bets, but over 95% of money
• 7:44
  line dollars are on the Phillies.
• 7:46
  So a really good low bets, higher dollar sharp split in
• 7:49
  favor of Philadelphia out in Vegas.
• 7:51
  So the wise guys who go to Circa to put down big amounts, they're
• 7:54
  hitting Philly here quite a bit. Then we have Philly matching a
• 7:57
  lot of betting systems. So the first one we always look
• 8:00
  at home favorites, very simple, obvious chalky, but it's been
• 8:03
  really good. Phillies has a home favorite in
• 8:06
  the spot would match. So home favorites overall are
• 8:09
  two O 1 and one O 366% nine percent ROI this year, home
• 8:14
  favorites off a win with a winning record.
• 8:16
  So you're a home favorite, you're off a win with momentum
• 8:19
  and your winning record. Technically you're a good team.
• 8:21
  That system is 82 and 32 this year, 71% with a 16% ROI.
• 8:27
  Favorites who made the playoffs the previous year, 149 and 8165%
• 8:32
  with a 3% ROI. And lastly, home favorites -150
• 8:37
  or more are 96 and 3673% with a 9% ROI.
• 8:42
  So a lot of systems lighting up here on Philadelphia.
• 8:45
  Philly is 11 and four at home this year.
• 8:47
  Washington, by the way, only four and 11 on the road.
• 8:49
  So let's hope that Philly can keep that home cooking going.
• 8:53
  Phillies are also four and one head to head against the
• 8:55
  Nationals this year and in particular Brad Lord.
• 8:59
  He has a 5.23 ERA on the road this year and four starts.
• 9:03
  So hopefully the Phills bats can get to Lord.
• 9:05
  And the Phillies, by the way, are hitting 276 at home this
• 9:07
  year. That's the 4th best in baseball.
• 9:10
  Nationals are only hitting 214 on the road.
• 9:12
  They ranked 24th in baseball. So it's not a massive $0.20 team
• 9:17
  move, but you've seen movement toward Philly.
• 9:19
  We have a really good bat split. We have a ton of system matches.
• 9:22
  We got some home Rd. splits. I'm going to take Philadelphia
• 9:24
  here, guys. I got Philly Little earlier
• 9:26
  today -178 some shops are -180 or -185 but you should if you
• 9:32
  shop around and you have FanDuel, I'm noticing they're
• 9:35
  still -174 FanDuel. So just try to find anything -1
• 9:40
  sub -180 if you're going to play Philly with me.
• 9:42
  But this one goes out to my guy James Santor, the biggest Philly
• 9:45
  fan I know. Let's go.
• 9:46
  Phill's next one for you. It's my birthday.
• 9:50
  I'm a Red Sox die hard. I get to bet the Red Sox not
• 9:53
  because they're my team, cuz that goes against everything we
• 9:56
  preach on the pod. Betting your favorite team just
• 9:58
  cuz they're your favorite team. No, I'm betting the Red Sox
• 10:01
  tonight not cuz they're my favorite team, even though they
• 10:03
  are, but because they're shop tonight.
• 10:06
  Yeah, I got to pick up some dunks, coffee and sweat the Sox
• 10:08
  tonight. Red Sox Toronto 7 O 7:00 PM
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  Eastern Time first pitch. This is the rubber match of a
• 10:15
  three-game series. We saw the Red Sox 17 and 15.
• 10:18
  They won the opener 10 to 2, cruising as a - 140 Rd.
• 10:21
  favorite. Then the Blue Jays, who are 14
• 10:23
  and 16. They bounced back with A7 to six
• 10:26
  win last night, cashing as a - 110 home pick and play.
• 10:30
  That one really hurt because the Red Sox were up 6, nothing, and
• 10:32
  their bullpen imploded. And I got the Red Sox over 85
• 10:35
  1/2 wins. So we can't be doing that too
• 10:37
  much this year. But anyway, pitching match up
• 10:40
  tonight, we got the Red Sox going with the ready Tanner
• 10:42
  Houck. He was great last year, made the
• 10:43
  All Star team. He struggled this year O 127.58
• 10:47
  ERA. It's mostly because he made a
• 10:49
  start where I think it was against Tampa at Steinbrenner
• 10:51
  Field and gave up like 12 runs. But hopefully he can, you know,
• 10:55
  kind of bounce back, regress in a positive way.
• 10:57
  But it'll be opposed by fellow ready Jose Barrios.
• 11:00
  One and one 4.24 ERA for Toronto.
• 11:04
  So what do we see across the market here?
• 11:06
  This game open with Toronto, a very, very short favorite.
• 11:10
  Toronto was around a -, 110 -, 115 home favorite.
• 11:13
  And we've seen the sign completely flip toward Boston.
• 11:16
  This is why I like Boston. They're kind of like a mini
• 11:18
  Baltimore play from yesterday where Baltimore went from dog to
• 11:21
  fave against the Yankees. You're kind of seeing that here
• 11:24
  with the Red Sox. It's not as pronounced, but you
• 11:27
  did open the Red Sox around a + 100, basically even road dog,
• 11:32
  and now they flip to a -, 110, some shops even hinting toward
• 11:36
  -115 Rd. favorite. So I always love that that dog
• 11:40
  to fave line move. Does every dog to fave line move
• 11:42
  win? Of course not, nothing does.
• 11:45
  But majority of the time that dog to fave sharp move does come
• 11:48
  through and again, came through with the Orioles last night.
• 11:51
  But aside from the dog to fave, Red Sox have a really good bet
• 11:54
  split at Circa. Out at Circa, only 27% of money
• 11:58
  line bets are on the Red Sox, but they're taking into account
• 12:02
  84% of money line dollars. So a massive low bets higher
• 12:06
  dollar split out in Vegas that's about as big as a split as I've
• 12:09
  seen in a while, just tells me that we have an overload of big,
• 12:12
  sharp, respected money hitting the Red Sox out in Vegas.
• 12:16
  Aside from that, we have some system matches on the Red Sox.
• 12:19
  Number one. We have just obviously favorites
• 12:22
  with line movement in their direction like the Sox here.
• 12:25
  Those teams are 198 and one O 765% with a 7% ROI.
• 12:30
  Favorites off a loss, 120 and 67 this year, 64% with an 8% ROI.
• 12:37
  I'm going to bank on the Red Sox bats.
• 12:39
  Hopefully. I mean, Jesus, can we get a good
• 12:41
  start out of 10 or how? That's obviously very important
• 12:43
  tonight, but hopefully the Red Sox bats can come to play.
• 12:46
  They're hitting 251 on the year. They've hit forty home runs,
• 12:49
  160, four runs scored. Blue Jays are only hitting 23719
• 12:54
  homers in 100 and four runs scored.
• 12:56
  So a much better offensive output.
• 12:59
  Hopefully which will come to play in our favor tonight in
• 13:02
  favor of the Red Sox. Also with two righties on the
• 13:04
  bump, Red Sox are much better against righties.
• 13:06
  They're hitting 2:51. That's tenth best in baseball.
• 13:10
  Toronto's only hitting 231 against righties.
• 13:12
  That's 24th in baseball. Little cherry on top here.
• 13:15
  I popped open the Juice Reel app and noticed a 20% sharp mush
• 13:19
  edge in favor of Toronto. In favor of Boston, I should
• 13:23
  say. I should say so I like the fact
• 13:25
  here that the Red Sox are a sharp dog to fave move.
• 13:29
  Fantastic bet split out at Circa.
• 13:32
  Great sharp mush edge from Juice Rail and a lot of system
• 13:35
  matches. Hopefully a better offensive
• 13:37
  game here for the Red Sox. So let's go Boston.
• 13:40
  And again, when you blow 6 nothing lead and lose yesterday
• 13:42
  7 to 6, hopefully you have a little more, little more, little
• 13:46
  more juju, a little more momentum, maybe some motivation
• 13:48
  to to kind of, you know, kind of get it back after blowing it
• 13:52
  yesterday. But let's go Red Sox.
• 13:54
  I got a -, 1 O 5 again now -110 is your best price.
• 13:58
  I believe some books again as high as -115 last bed of the
• 14:02
  night. Let's go out to Los Angeles.
• 14:06
  9:38 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the Detroit Tigers
• 14:10
  visiting the LA Angels. So this is the opening game of a
• 14:14
  four-game series. We have the Tigers 19 and 12 on
• 14:17
  the year. I'm actually kicking myself.
• 14:18
  I like their win total over before the season started.
• 14:21
  I laid off. I should have played it.
• 14:23
  But the Tigers 19 and 12 did just lose two or three against
• 14:26
  the Stroh's but avoided the sweep with A7 to four win
• 14:28
  yesterday. They catch that game as a + 100
• 14:31
  Rd. dog. On the other hand, the Angels
• 14:33
  are 12 and 17 this season. They just got swept in A2 game
• 14:36
  series against the Mariners. They lost nine to three
• 14:39
  yesterday as a + 120 Rd. dog. So pitching matchup here
• 14:43
  tonight, we have the Tigers going with the ready Casey Mize.
• 14:46
  He was a top pick and kind of didn't do much few years, but
• 14:49
  really turned it around and starting to become that first
• 14:52
  round pick four and one 2.12 ERA this year.
• 14:55
  You know the Angels are going to send out the lefty offseason
• 14:58
  acquisition. You say Kikuchi, he's Owen for
• 15:01
  the 4.31 ERA. So what are we seeing across the
• 15:04
  market here? Well, some games open this or
• 15:07
  some shops open this game almost to pick them like -110 both
• 15:10
  sides. But you had other books open.
• 15:12
  Tigers slightly favored like -1 -, 115 -, 120.
• 15:17
  But regardless of the opener, all movement has come on the
• 15:20
  Tigers. Give me the Tigers here, guys.
• 15:22
  I like the Tigers in the spot. We've seen the Tigers now get
• 15:24
  steamed up to around -130 So whether it was -110 -, 115 -,
• 15:29
  120, regardless of the opener, they've all now steamed up
• 15:33
  consensus market wise, painted across the board to Detroit -130
• 15:38
  now looks like a pro. And Joe play here in favor of
• 15:40
  the Tigers at DraftKings. More than 80% of bets and
• 15:43
  dollars are on the Tigers. Tells me maybe the public is
• 15:46
  just saying, yeah, Tigers got the better record, so might as
• 15:48
  well play them. Whereas wise guys really saw the
• 15:50
  value of that price. Maybe they had Tigers around
• 15:53
  -130 to begin with. So when they open as low as -110
• 15:57
  they hammered Detroit 'cause that steam move in their favor.
• 16:00
  Now we have a lot of system matches on the Tigers right now.
• 16:03
  I'm lighting up what is it 6 system matches, but we have
• 16:07
  favorites who made the playoffs the previous year, 149 and 8165
• 16:11
  percent 5% ROI. Favorites with line movement in
• 16:15
  their direction 198 and one O 765 percent 7% ROI.
• 16:20
  Detroit also has that classic non division favorite value.
• 16:23
  So the lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
• 16:26
  better team based on the minus number in front of their odds.
• 16:29
  The team that's expected to win the game.
• 16:31
  Now I'm going to bank on hopefully my is having a good
• 16:33
  start here. He's been really good this
• 16:34
  season, but we do have the Tigers with the better bats.
• 16:37
  They're hitting two 45140 five runs scored.
• 16:40
  Angels only hitting two 14106 runs scored.
• 16:44
  Detroit has 1/4 of Mises 5 starts.
• 16:47
  He's only got loud 1 earned run or less in four of those 5
• 16:50
  starts. So hopefully that continues.
• 16:52
  You know the Angels, they've lost 5 of Kikuchi's 6 starts
• 16:56
  this year. Tigers do have the better
• 16:58
  bullpen, so if my eyes can get us started, hopefully the pen
• 17:01
  can take us home. 2.74 ERA. That's the 4th best in baseball.
• 17:05
  Angels, Did you know that they have the second worst bullpen in
• 17:08
  baseball? 5.49 ERA.
• 17:11
  Angels by the way, only hitting 217 at home this year.
• 17:13
  Second worst in baseball. Tigers are hitting 250 against
• 17:16
  lefties. That's 10th best in baseball.
• 17:19
  So regardless of the pick em opener or slight favorite, all
• 17:23
  steam and line movement has been toward Detroit.
• 17:26
  Detroit's lighten up a bunch of system matches.
• 17:28
  We got a good pro and Joe Bat split as well as a better
• 17:32
  offense, better bullpen and hopefully KC Mize again can can
• 17:35
  pitch well for us tonight. I have a Long story short
• 17:38
  checking off multiple boxes. That means it's a play for me.
• 17:41
  I'm going Detroit Tigers, not Detroit basketball.
• 17:45
  Detroit Tigers got him on the money line at -130 So Philly,
• 17:50
  Boston and Detroit can we get 2 out of those 3 and eke out a
• 17:54
  winning night? That is the goal.
• 17:57
  So that about does it for episode 269 of the All Systems
• 18:01
  Go Sports Betting podcast, powered by Rhythm, of course.
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  Orioles. But the betting market told us
• 19:01
  Orioles were sharp as a tack, low bets, higher dollar, sharp
• 19:04
  reverse line, move dog to fave, lighten up the system matches.
• 19:07
  What did we do? We didn't go with our heart,
• 19:10
  which would probably would say, hey, take the Yankees to the
• 19:12
  better team. No, we don't with our head based
• 19:14
  on what the data in the market and the numbers are telling us.
• 19:17
  So if this style of betting appeals to you, you want to
• 19:19
  learn more about data-driven betting, Maybe you have someone
• 19:21
  in your life who could use a few tips on data-driven betting.
• 19:25
  Or you just want to let me know you appreciate the pod and
• 19:27
  support the team. You know what I'd love for you
• 19:29
  to do on my birthday? You know what I want as a
• 19:32
  birthday present? I want you guys to go buy my
• 19:34
  book. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
• 19:37
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 19:38
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 19:41
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 19:42
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 19:45
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go contrarian
• 19:48
  system matches, how to place a bet in person or online bankroll
• 19:51
  management. It's all included in the
• 19:53
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 19:55
  While you're at it, stay on Amazon and then type in the NFL
• 19:58
  Sharp Betting Playbook. That's my new baby.
• 20:01
  It's coming out August 12th this later this summer.
• 20:04
  Very much looking forward to that because I put everything
• 20:07
  I've learned about NFL betting into that book.
• 20:09
  And I can't wait for you guys to check it out.
• 20:10
  But if you wanted to pre-order a copy, that would be a really,
• 20:13
  really cool move by you. And guess what bring bring both
• 20:16
  books, the everything guide to sports betting and the NFL sharp
• 20:19
  betting playbook to the sports book.
• 20:21
  I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 20:24
  ale or we'll get some nachos together.
• 20:26
  What do you what do you say? And guess what?
• 20:28
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 20:29
  Then we'll post up sweat some games together next.
• 20:33
  Have you downloaded rhythm and juice real yet?
• 20:34
  My two favorite sports betting apps because they're all about
• 20:37
  data. And really that's right up my
• 20:40
  alley cuz I've learned over time I didn't I wasn't born a
• 20:43
  data-driven better. I became one through losing by
• 20:46
  betting with my heart. And I realized, hey, there's a
• 20:49
  model you can follow that treats you pretty good if you stick to
• 20:52
  it long term. But if you haven't done it yet,
• 20:55
  download Rhythm. Fantastic AI backed models and
• 20:58
  predictions for game bets and player props.
• 21:00
  I wanted to mention this the other day, but Rhythm now gives
• 21:03
  you a an opportunity to schedule a demo you can check out on on
• 21:07
  their Twitter page. I tweeted retweeted as well.
• 21:09
  But if you want some one-on-one kind of teaching for using
• 21:13
  rhythm to your advantage, you can definitely schedule that.
• 21:15
  But then also we got Juice reel, another favorite sports sports
• 21:19
  app of mine. Of course, you can support the
• 21:22
  pod. I'm holding out the tip jar,
• 21:24
  passing the hat. If you like the pod, which is
• 21:26
  free, I'd love for you guys to sign up and get the all systems
• 21:30
  go best bet picks on juice real. It cost you $4.99 a week.
• 21:34
  It's basically a cup of coffee. Or if you're like my wife and
• 21:37
  you go to Starbucks, it's like half a Starbucks coffee.
• 21:40
  You'll get some numbers earlier in the day when I put them in.
• 21:43
  And then you'll also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks each
• 21:46
  day. The sharp mush indicators, the
• 21:48
  arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures.
• 21:51
  Sync up your sports books. Get a running report card of
• 21:53
  your action and then every game you click on it'll give you game
• 21:56
  details with actual real, which is really amazing.
• 22:01
  Dollar amounts bets in dollars for spread money line in total
• 22:05
  for every game based on everyone who has a Juice Reel app and has
• 22:08
  synced up their sports books. So it's a pretty
• 22:10
  all-encompassing app, but download rhythm, download Juice
• 22:13
  reel, give them a five star review in the App Store and
• 22:15
  you'll be off and running next. Do you have a live odds page?
• 22:19
  You got to have a live odds page.
• 22:21
  I honestly don't know how anyone can bet on sports without a live
• 22:23
  odds page. You got to know the most basic
• 22:26
  question. What are all the games today
• 22:27
  being played? You know, what are my options?
• 22:30
  Then you want to look at where these lines opened.
• 22:32
  You'll have an opening column that never changes.
• 22:34
  You can immediately, within 2 seconds, look at the open and
• 22:37
  then scan to the right and look at all the current numbers and
• 22:40
  you can see which direction the line is moving.
• 22:42
  You can pull up the complete line history.
• 22:44
  The live odds page. I had someone test it out and
• 22:47
  say what are all these colors that that I see?
• 22:49
  Well the colors are timestamp indicators.
• 22:51
  As soon as any odds change from any book they immediately get
• 22:54
  highlighted in red. Then I believe they go to yellow
• 22:58
  and then orange or yellow and green.
• 23:00
  But if you see that anything lighting U, you're knowing, you
• 23:03
  know that, hey, it's moving and it's moving probably if it's not
• 23:05
  an injury or the weather because of smart money coming in.
• 23:08
  You can also look for market setting global books to move
• 23:11
  like Pinnacle or circa. And then you know that, hey, I
• 23:14
  got about a one minute window before I can go to a slow moving
• 23:18
  book and pick off a good number before they move.
• 23:21
  So really the odds logic live odds page, it's the best around.
• 23:25
  It's also the most cost effective option.
• 23:28
  If you want to give it a shot, go to this link
• 23:31
  www.oddslogic.com/josh 123. That's odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 23:40
  You got to add the Josh 123 at the end because that'll give you
• 23:43
  a 7 day free trial and then 15 or sorry, 50% off your first
• 23:48
  month. So normally the Odds Logic live
• 23:50
  odds page is 99 bucks a month. You'll get it for a little less
• 23:54
  than 50 bucks for your first month and see if you like it.
• 23:56
  And I think once you like it and it becomes a daily part of your
• 23:59
  handicapping routine, you know, whether it's your desktop,
• 24:02
  laptop, it works pretty good on a phone, you're going to have
• 24:05
  this page up all the time staring at the numbers.
• 24:08
  This is what I've been doing for years.
• 24:10
  But give it a shot. Odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 24:14
  So that about does it for episode 269 of the ASG pod on a
• 24:18
  big Thursday, May 1st, my b-day. I can't believe I'm 38 years
• 24:22
  old. I know, it's just insane.
• 24:24
  I feel like I was 17 the other day, you know, playing baseball
• 24:27
  with my boys and in high school, going to parties on the weekend,
• 24:31
  talking about where we're all going to go to college.
• 24:33
  And look at me now, like literally 20 years later.
• 24:36
  It's insane, man. Father Time is undefeated, I
• 24:38
  tell you that. But anyway, guys, wrap it up as
• 24:41
  we always do with a couple things.
• 24:42
  One whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 24:46
  River in Rhode Island, the Nash in Nashville, New Hampshire
• 24:51
  Encore in Boston Plain Rich Park Casino or of course, Bet MGM in
• 24:54
  my neck of the woods or out in the desert where the true
• 24:57
  grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his number runners
• 25:00
  with lowest juice possible is found at the South Point or
• 25:03
  sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming
• 25:05
  pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 25:07
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
• 25:09
  You're going to show me a beautiful chef's kiss.
• 25:13
  Baltimore Orioles, a gross hazmat team that looked like
• 25:17
  they would get rolled, but we trusted the market and they
• 25:19
  rewarded us. And then also a nice Rockets
• 25:22
  staving off elimination play. Guess what?
• 25:24
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 25:26
  Then I'll post about the book. Sweat Sharp and train plays all
• 25:29
  night long. So wish the best luck everyone.
• 25:32
  As always, two and one, one and two, three and OO and three.
• 25:37
  Hey, the previous day we always want to win.
• 25:39
  Whether we're hot, whether we're cold, whenever as good as we
• 25:42
  think when we're hot, whenever as bad as we think when we're
• 25:44
  cold, we're always grinding, never letting the previous day
• 25:48
  talk us into or out of a good or bad bet the next day.
• 25:52
  But here's the thing, we just got to stick to the model, stick
• 25:54
  to the blueprint. I know it's cliche, you hear me
• 25:56
  say it all the time, but I think you just got to get in that
• 25:58
  mindset of just grinding and playing the matches when we see
• 26:01
  them. And you guys know by now the
• 26:03
  matches are games that fit our model with our head and on our
• 26:06
  heart, against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
• 26:09
  bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
• 26:11
  If we can do that, we can stick to it long term and stay true to
• 26:15
  our bankroll management. You know what, if we can do that
• 26:18
  all we're going to be successful sports betters.
• 26:20
  So have a great Thursday everybody.
• 26:22
  Again, thanks for all the the b-day shout outs on Twitter.
• 26:25
  I very much appreciate it And hey, let's see if we can get
• 26:28
  some winners on the 38th b-day. As always, guys, good luck and I
• 26:33
  will see you tomorrow for a big Friday edition episode 270 of
• 26:37
  the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
• 26:40
  rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
• 26:42
  your Thursday night.