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Episode 180 - 12/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 180 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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  week. One day closer to Thursday Night
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  Football as well as another big weekend here with NFL.
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  And of course we got all the different sports going on right
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  now. So a lot to get to on today's
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  podcast. I have a 5 pack of sweats for
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  you. It's going to be all hoops,
• 0:52
  baby. If you like hoops, today's pod
• 0:54
  is for you. I got 2 plays in the NBA.
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  I'm looking at a total as well as the side and then three plays
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  in college hoops looking at, believe it or not, three dogs
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  that hope. We're hoping we can bark here,
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  including two huge rhythm edges and one Ken Palm Sound the
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  alarm. Woo woo.
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  You guys know what that means. Ken Palm has this team winning
• 1:13
  the damn game yet in the betting market, you're getting some
• 1:15
  points, so stay tuned as we will break down all the hoops, pro
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  and college plays for tonight. Now once we finish up all of our
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  plays for today, I want to mention a little bit of NFL Week
• 1:26
  15 because I wrote the sharp report today for visen.com where
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  I am a betting analyst and contributor here.
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  You can always check it out for my Twitter at Josh under Score
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  Insights. But I did get a look at the
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  board for this weekend. And remember last last week I
• 1:40
  told you I didn't really like the board.
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  I ended up putting in some bets late that I probably shouldn't
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  have. My first instinct was probably
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  right that the board wasn't great.
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  I kind of feel the opposite about this weeks NFL slate week
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  15 because there are a few bets that I already have my eye on.
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  One huge dog to fave line move. Numbers are moving and I think
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  you can make a case for quite a few games this upcoming weekend.
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  So I'm going to give you a few, including one that I already
• 2:03
  have in pocket and see if we can have a good week in the NFL
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  Upcoming here and looking toward tomorrow guys.
• 2:09
  Rams, San Francisco, You're sitting at San Francisco -3 and
• 2:13
  I was actually talking DM ING with my buddy Willie and he was
• 2:16
  saying are the Rams a bit of a trendy dog?
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  And I said yes, they are Rams plus 3, getting like 65% of
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  that. So let's see where we move off
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  that 3 and we'll see between now and tomorrow.
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  I'm sure we'll have at least one bet.
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  But I just wanted to mention that because it seems like Rams,
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  divisional dog, primetime dog, but they're a little bit trendy,
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  a little bit popular. So we'll see how it develops
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  between now and tomorrow. Now looking back to our last
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  night, guys, sadly we're still in the darkness.
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  We can't seem to breakthrough. Recently, 2 and 3 -, 1.2 units.
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  We did have a couple good hits with the OKC Dallas buy low
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  under. Remember we saw that total go up
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  to 28 1/2 to 231 1/2 bought low on the under came through as
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  that that total went under Arkansas plus 4, the sweat of a
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  lifetime because Arkansas got down big.
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  I was like, oh, here we go again.
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  And then Arkansas roared back to take a huge lead.
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  Then they coughed it up and they almost blew it, but they hung on
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  there at the very bitter end. A lot of books closed at 3 1/2.
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  So it's good to see the Arkansas Razorbacks bark for us, the one
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  that was super frustrating, and I feel like this is the world
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  we're living in. The last four or five days,
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  losing bets in the most heartbreaking fashion.
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  But man, Penn State, Penn State, we got plus 3 1/2.
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  They closed at 2 1/2. We beat the closing line.
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  What happens? They lose by 4.
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  So sometimes you can't make these things up.
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  There was a miss free throw at the end, which would have
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  covered it. There's an opportunity to hit a
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  three and you know, really, you know, actually tie the game at
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  one point. Couldn't do it.
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  Penn State loses by 4 when you get a 3 1/2 and you beat the
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  closing line. So that one was rough with the
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  Nittany Lions. And then the other one, which is
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  just again, laughing in our face, was that Torian Prince
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  over 3 1/2 rebounds and assists. Of course, he lands at 3.
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  So we're we're one rebound or or assist short.
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  So you get a 3 1/2, you lose by 4, you get over 3 1/2, it lands
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  on three. It's just the bad beats keep
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  keep tracking us down here. So hopefully we can
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  breakthrough. And then the other one that was
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  disappointing was Portland. Portland money line -2 1/2 ended
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  up closing some shops as high as three.
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  Another CLV play. Portland loses out right home
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  against the Kansas City Kangaroos.
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  So either way, guys 2 and 3 -, 1.2 units, I'm not going to
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  laugh, I'm not going to cry. I'm just going to grinders with
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  blinders. Keep our head focused, our eyes
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  focused on on the on the present, try to make some sharp
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  bets, try to eke out a winning night for tonight.
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  Now, let's start with some NBA because if you haven't been
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  following, we have the NBA Cup, which I'll be honest, when they
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  first announced it, I was like, sounds kind of like, I don't
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  know, a little, you know, a little weird.
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  I'd kind of like forcing this thing that isn't a thing, but I
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  got to admit, you know, it's it's garnering a lot of action
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  and maybe this is a good thing to get good games here
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  motivating players in the doldrums of the, you know,
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  December times. But anyway, 22 games tonight.
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  Let's hit on them both first one 7:00 Eastern Time, Atlanta Hawks
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  and the New York Knicks. Now this one jumped out to me
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  for a couple reasons. One, Knicks are relatively large
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  favorite, 8 point favorite. We did see the Knicks creep up
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  -7 F up to -8 but I'm going to focus on the total.
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  And this total reminds me almost Deja Vu of the total we played
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  last night with that inflated buy low or sell high
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  opportunity. Because remember yesterday, one
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  of the winners was that Mavericks Thunder underwear open
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  228 1/2. It got up to 231 1/2.
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  It closed 2:30. So CLV there as well.
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  But I'm seeing the same thing here.
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  I'm going to buy low and take this under.
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  Now the Hawks and the Knicks total open very high 235.
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  But it got better all the way up to 237 1/2.
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  And shop around. I got under 237 1/2.
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  There are some books are getting down to 237.
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  So definitely try to shop around and find that hook.
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  If it lands 237 you want to cash this under.
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  But anyway, couple reasons to like this.
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  Inflated line by low under #1 pretty good bet split at circa.
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  At Circa only around 55% of bets but 67% of dollars are on the
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  under set. Tells me that the sharper
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  betters in Vegas, who you go to Circa and they're not going to
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  deny your action or limit you. They're going to take your bets.
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  Which is why Circo is considered one of the best sports books.
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  Not just one of the best, best places to sweat a game, but also
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  good rhythm edge here. I have two rhythm models here
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  where the total should be 235.8 and 2:36.
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  So it's not a huge edge, but again, 236 basically that would
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  cash in under 237 1/2. I did notice the next pace is
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  pretty slow. They ranked 25th in pace in the
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  NBA. So hopefully as an 8 point
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  favorite, I'm not going to, I don't know if it's going to be a
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  blowout, but you get a big take your foot off the gas, you slow
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  down a bit. Both these teams are top 20
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  defensive efficiency, so nothing crazy, but at least we're not
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  dead last. And Atlanta offensive
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  efficiency, they're 19th. So they're not really in that
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  that top half either. But when I saw this total tick
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  up and then I started to see maybe some buyback, I said, hey,
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  237 1/2 is probably your high watermark.
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  I'm going to do the same thing we did last night with that
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  inflated total, waiting till it gets to the very highest point
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  and then bought selling high and going under.
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  So I'm on Atlanta and the New York Knicks under 237 1/2.
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  Next one for you at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, Golden State
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  Warriors and the Houston Rockets should be a great game.
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  NBA Cup quarter quarterfinals, just like that Hawks, Knicks
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  quarterfinals. But if you look at this match
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  up, the Warriors come in 14 and 9, Houston Rockets 16 and 8.
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  E-mail Udoka, who I loved as a Celtics coach, but he was doing
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  some bad things off the court. If you know, you know.
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  But he's really turned this Rockets team around, gotten much
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  tougher and really good defensive team as well.
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  But what I noticed about this one is a bit of a fade.
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  The trendy dog opportunity public is liking the Warriors
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  and the points. Now you open a lot of books at
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  rockets -1 1/2 - 2. And the public is saying take
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  the points here with the Warriors right now, you're
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  getting around 55% of bets. It's not hugely lopsided, put a
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  little more than half the tickets going Warriors in the
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  points, yet this line has continued to either stay the
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  same or move toward the Rockets. So rockets -1 1/2 up to -2 some
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  twos creeping up to 2 1/2, some are back down to two.
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  But the important thing to me is that you're still rockets -2
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  even though slight majority of bets are on Warriors.
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  So from the outset we have a bit of a fade, the trendy dog
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  reverse line move or a line freeze when you have betting on
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  one side, yet the line doesn't really move.
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  What that tells me is that even though the public is going
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  Warriors and again, how do you not take Steph Curry in some
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  points? I get it, especially 930 TNT
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  game here tonight. But the important thing to me is
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  that this line isn't down to one or a pick em or hopping the
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  fence. The Warriors, it's still staying
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  pretty steady in favor of the Rockets.
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  Now if you look at circa again caters to sharper betters, 62%
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  of bets but 91% of dollars are on the Rockets.
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  At DraftKings around 45% bets but 73% of dollars are on the
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  Rockets. And then of course this is a -,
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  2 -, 2 1/2. I don't want to win by one or
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  two and lose my bet or push my bet.
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  So this is a money line short. Favorite play to me.
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  I got Houston on the money line at -130 and both Circa and
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  DraftKings have really good bet splits on the money line.
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  I would always implore you guys to especially when it's a short
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  ish number like you know basically like 3 or less, 4 or
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  less. Compare the spread to the money
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  line because you may see them if they're very similar, you know,
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  maybe it's just, you know, there's value both ways.
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  But if you see a a bigger lopsided discrepancy on the
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  money line versus the spread, that may tell you something.
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  That may tell you that, again, sharps like it more as a
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  straight up play than an ATS play.
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  That's what you're looking at here.
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  At circa 63% bets, 96% money is on the money line for the
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  Rockets. And at DraftKings, only 32% of
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  bets, but 52% of dollars are on the money line.
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  So the spread is looking good for the Rockets, but the money
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  on looks even better at a square book like DraftKings and a sharp
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  book like Circa. Now we get to Rhythm.
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  Rhythm has Houston -2.1. So you're kind of right where it
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  should be. But also, I'm going to look at
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  motivation. I was looking at the recent
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  performance between these teams as their third matchup, and
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  Golden State's won the 1st 2. So if you're Houston, if you
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  need to add it added motivation. This is a team that beat you
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  twice. Now you're at home, you can
• 10:31
  punch your ticket to the semi finals and get one step closer
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  to Vegas. I think maybe the quarterfinals
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  or the semi finals are in Vegas. I got to check that.
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  But Houston has been great at home nine and three.
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  They're number 2IN defensive efficiency.
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  Again, Eme Udoka's got this team playing tough.
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  And then one last angle to like the money line would be home
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  favorites. Very simple, but home favorites,
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  straight up, how often the home favorites win the game.
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  They're 154 and 5972% this year. So nearly three out of four home
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  favorites are winning. Rockets are a home favorite
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  tonight. Good bet split, decent rhythm
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  edge, bit of a feed, the trendy dog or line freeze play as well
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  as a revenge angle with a good defensive team who plays well at
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  home. So I'm going Rockets, let's win
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  this damn game. Houston got the Rockets at -130
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  so shop around. Atlanta, NY under 237 1/2 as
• 11:21
  well as Houston on the money line -130 can we get at least
• 11:25
  one of those? Now over to some college hoops.
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  I'll tell you what guys, there aren't a ton of super heavily
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  backed games and the basically the obscure line move plays.
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  Not a ton jumped out to me. So I was looking at kind of
• 11:38
  other angles here and I wanted to mention anyone who who joined
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  the TikTok live stream. I can't believe I'm saying this
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  because I've never been a TikTok guy, but I downloaded TikTok.
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  I did the live stream for Rhythm and there was one bet yesterday
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  that caught my eye. It was Incarnate Word.
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  They are plus 34 1/2 and Rhythm predicted them plus 27 they end
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  up covering and then Troy they are plus 26 1/2 and then up
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  covering because Rhythm had a + 21 they covered as well.
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  So I'm like, maybe I should put more stock in like these huge
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  dogs where again, they're probably going to lose, but can
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  they cover the number because, you know, Rhythm is predicting a
• 12:15
  a tighter or closer result. So I'll get to some of those
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  games in a second because there's there's two big dogs
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  here I'm focusing on. But I do want to start off with
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  let's see here which one I'll give you a big one.
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  All right, UTEP in Louisville or Louisville as as as the native
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  Louisville ends like to call them.
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  But UTEP Louisville coming in this one.
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  UTEP is 6 and two. Louisville is five and four.
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  This is 7:00 game on ESPN plus. Now, what are we seeing across
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  the market? Well, just movement toward UTEP.
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  You had Louisville open as a very big 16 point favorite.
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  Now they're down to 15 1/2, some books even down to 15.
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  And the first thing I notice is good sharp classic RLM because
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  at DraftKings, only 40% of bets are taking UTEP in the points,
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  yet the lines moving toward UTEP.
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  So why is this line dropping away from Louisville if the
• 13:08
  public is laying the points of Louisville?
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  This is one of those public plays where you know somebody
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  types on Twitter, yeah, they're going to crush them lay the
• 13:15
  points with Louisville, they're going to crush UTEP.
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  That's the mindset of the public.
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  Yet this this number is falling away from Louisville toward
• 13:23
  UTEP. So even before we get to Ken
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  Palm and rhythm, this is just a classic RLM play public
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  Louisville, the lines falling away from them.
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  Now if you'll get Circa caters to sharp money, 77% of spread
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  bets, 97% of spread dollars are on UTEP.
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  So the bigger sharper guys and gals at at Circa in Vegas, they
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  like the points with UTEP. Here's where it gets good.
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  Ken Palm, he has UTEP losing by 13.
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  So if we are getting a 1515 1/2 shop round, I got plus 15 1/2 at
• 13:55
  Caesar's. But if you're getting 15 1/2 and
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  Ken Palm's gone losing by 13, that's an actionable edge gets
• 14:02
  even better. Rhythm is predict predicting
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  UTEP plus 11 1/2. So basically rhythm has 11 or 12
• 14:10
  point game. Ken Palms got a 13 point game
• 14:13
  and we're with the sharp move in the market and we can still, if
• 14:15
  you can have access to Caesar's and there's one other book right
• 14:18
  now, 15 1/2 that's telling us that we got a pretty good edge
• 14:22
  over over the market. Now free throw shooting could be
• 14:25
  big. You got to make your free
• 14:27
  throws. You know, I, I, I almost I, I
• 14:30
  hope this doesn't happen. But you know what?
• 14:31
  If they're down by 16 points with two minutes left and they
• 14:34
  get fouled, like we got to make these free throws and cover the
• 14:36
  number, but they're shooting 76%.
• 14:39
  The UTEP miners from the free throw line versus 71% for
• 14:42
  Louisville. They also shoot the three
• 14:44
  better, 38% versus only 28%. They're a bit of a dog who can
• 14:49
  score system match averaging 76 points a game.
• 14:52
  And then also field goal percentage, 47% versus 43% for
• 14:56
  Louisville. So pretty clear, Louisville's
• 14:59
  probably going to win this game, but can UTEP lose by 14 or less
• 15:03
  or 15 or less if you get the hook there?
• 15:05
  But I'm going to, I'm going to follow this Ken Palm edge again,
• 15:08
  UTEP losing by 13, Rhythm losing by 11 1/2.
• 15:11
  We can get a 15 1/2 in the market again.
• 15:14
  Jump on it before it moves at Caesars.
• 15:15
  I'm on UTEP plus 15 1/2. Next one for you.
• 15:20
  It's an 8:00 game between southeast Louisiana and
• 15:23
  Louisiana Raging Cajuns. That's not the Popo.
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  It's not, it's not that's not the sirens coming up behind you.
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  It's a Ken Palm. Sound the alarm.
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  Sound the alarm, baby. Southeast Louisiana, Louisiana,
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  Raging Cajuns, southeast Louisiana.
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  Or actually, let me set it up this way.
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  Louisiana is not a great team. I was surprised by this because
• 15:46
  again, raging Cajuns, typically they dominate the Sunbelt, but
• 15:51
  if you look at them this year, they're one and eight.
• 15:54
  They're one and four at home. They've lost, I believe, seven
• 15:56
  or eight straight. SE E Louisiana's four and five.
• 15:59
  They're two and four on the road.
• 16:01
  This line did move toward Louisiana.
• 16:03
  Raging Cajuns. They open up -3 1/2.
• 16:06
  You're now up to -4 1/2. Some books were as low as 2 1/2
• 16:09
  up to -4 1/2. So we got to admit there was
• 16:12
  some money that hit Louisiana, the Raging Cajuns that is.
• 16:16
  However, let's look at this inflated line opportunity to go
• 16:19
  with southeast Louisiana. Now, this didn't work last night
• 16:22
  with Penn State in heartbreaking fashion.
• 16:25
  Plus 3 1/2 to lose by 4. But it's very similar because
• 16:28
  Ken Palm has Southeast Louisiana winning the game by one point
• 16:34
  and we're getting 4 1/2 in the betting market.
• 16:36
  Ken Palms got him ranked higher, 217 in the country versus 283 at
• 16:41
  circa 75% of bets. 96% of dollars on the spread are on
• 16:46
  Southeast Louisiana. Southeast Louisiana's little bit
• 16:49
  rested. They last played on December 5th
• 16:51
  versus Louisiana. Raging Cajuns playing on the
• 16:53
  8th. Southeast Louisiana much better.
• 16:56
  Defensively, they rank 124 in the country versus 340th for
• 17:01
  Louisiana. They have the better offensive
• 17:03
  rebound percentage, 28% versus 25%.
• 17:06
  Better free throw shooting, 74% versus 68%.
• 17:10
  Defensively they're only giving up 68 points a game.
• 17:12
  Louisiana's giving up eighty a game.
• 17:14
  They also have the better rebound margin, 36 boards a game
• 17:17
  versus 29. I mentioned they're two and four
• 17:20
  on the road. Not great, but this is an in
• 17:22
  state game. Travel isn't terrible here.
• 17:25
  Maybe you get a friendly crowd because your people can, your
• 17:27
  fans can travel to the raging Cajuns Arena.
• 17:30
  And Louisiana just one and four at home.
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  Now, the coup de Woo, woo and buy low and take
• 17:59
  Southeast Louisiana plus 4 1/2. That's what I got.
• 18:02
  Southeast Louisiana. Can you win the game or lose by
• 18:05
  4 or less? Let's go Lions plus 4 1/2.
• 18:09
  Now the last game of the night, 9:00.
• 18:12
  It's going to be a gross one, but there's a pretty good edge
• 18:14
  here. Fresno State and BYU.
• 18:17
  So this game is, I believe it's on ESPN plus.
• 18:21
  Yup. So you should be able to watch
• 18:22
  it if you have the ESPN Plus account.
• 18:25
  But anyway, Fresno State three and six.
• 18:28
  They've lost four in a row. BYU 6:00 and 2:00.
• 18:31
  They have lost two of their last three, though.
• 18:33
  Now, this is a huge number. This game opened most shops at
• 18:39
  -25 1/2 -, 26 for BYU. So they're expected to win big
• 18:44
  here. Now, we've seen BYU get bet up
• 18:47
  all the way to -27 1/2. So my first thought here is,
• 18:52
  hey, you do have respected money.
• 18:53
  Laid it with BYU early. This is also a popular play here
• 18:58
  with the betting public. They think BYU is just going to
• 19:00
  absolutely destroy Fresno State, which they may, but I'm hoping
• 19:03
  not as you're getting upwards of 60% of bets laying the huge
• 19:07
  number. But then I pop open Ken Palm and
• 19:10
  Rhythm and This is why I'm going to, I'm taking Fresno State plus
• 19:13
  27 F again. It reminds me last night of
• 19:16
  Incarnate Word plus 34 1/2. Rhythm said they should be plus
• 19:19
  27. Troy plus 26 1/2 for them, said
• 19:22
  they should be plus 21. Both those numbers covered.
• 19:26
  But Fresno, we can get plus 27 1/2 with the Bulldogs, not the
• 19:30
  Cougars, the Bulldogs. But Rhythm is saying Fresno
• 19:35
  should be plus 22. So if we're getting 27 1/2 and
• 19:38
  Rhythm says it should be 22, again, that's a 5 1/2 point edge
• 19:43
  there. Ken Palm also says Fresno should
• 19:47
  lose by 22. He has BYU winning 88 to 66.
• 19:52
  So Rhythm and Ken Pom both say it should be a 22 point game and
• 19:56
  we're getting 27 1/2. There's there's an edge there to
• 19:59
  take advantage of. I'm hoping that Fresno State
• 20:02
  keeps this a little bit tighter because BYU's got the much
• 20:07
  better offense, but Fresno State?
• 20:09
  Is ranked 137 in defensive efficiency.
• 20:12
  It's really not bad. BYU is 91 so they're obviously
• 20:15
  better, but Fresno decent in terms of defense and obviously
• 20:19
  they have to score a little bit to keep pace.
• 20:22
  But when I noticed a 27 1/2 available and inflated line
• 20:26
  value off an opener of 25 ish and rhythm and Ken Palm of a 22
• 20:30
  point game again, it reminded me of Incarnate word and Troy from
• 20:33
  yesterday. So this is an angle that I
• 20:35
  haven't played a ton. You know, just huge dog with the
• 20:39
  points inflated with a rhythm edge or Ken palm edge.
• 20:42
  But after last night, I'm saying to myself, I did the TikTok live
• 20:45
  stream and these were some of your biggest discrepancies.
• 20:48
  And I said, why? Why aren't I starting to play
• 20:49
  these? Maybe I should.
• 20:51
  So I decided, hey, let's take a shot with Fresno.
• 20:54
  Can you lose by 27 or less? And I don't know if that's
• 20:57
  asking too much, but maybe maybe BYU gets up 30 and they take
• 21:01
  their foot off the gas and you know, give a couple pity points
• 21:04
  to Fresno State. But I am going to play that
• 21:06
  number plus 27 1/2 with Fresno again.
• 21:09
  Ken Palm and Rhythm have been losing by 22.
• 21:12
  So Fresno plus 27 1/2, UTEP plus 15 1/2 and Ken Palm sound the
• 21:17
  alarm. Southeast Louisiana plus 4 1/2.
• 21:20
  Can we find a way to get two out of those three?
• 21:23
  Now to finish up the pod, I wanted to mention a couple of
• 21:26
  NFL games that caught my eye early.
• 21:29
  And the first one, I already bet the Carolina Panthers, believe
• 21:32
  it or not, Carolina Panthers at home against the Dallas Cowboys,
• 21:36
  who I still can't get over the fact that we lost.
• 21:39
  We lost that game on Monday night because that idiot touched
• 21:42
  the ball and turned it over again.
• 21:44
  I feel bad for the guy, but I actually kind of don't because
• 21:47
  you screwed me, man. But anyway, Dallas Cowboys going
• 21:50
  on the road to Carolina. There's some stat out there.
• 21:52
  This is the first game Carolina's favored.
• 21:54
  And I don't even know like two or three years, but good sharp
• 21:58
  move toward Carolina. Dallas open this game actually
• 22:00
  around a 1 1/2 point favorite on the road.
• 22:03
  Now it's flipped to Carolina -2 1/2 some books, even getting to
• 22:06
  three. Carolina's got a really good bet
• 22:08
  split only 53% of bets but 92% of dollars.
• 22:12
  At DraftKings at Circus, 73% bets, 99% of money on Carolina.
• 22:19
  This is a rest first. Tired.
• 22:20
  Dallas is on a short week. Non division favorites are 70%
• 22:24
  straight up this year. So there's a money line play for
• 22:27
  me. I'm going to go Carolina.
• 22:28
  They've they've covered the last three numbers, maybe even more
• 22:31
  than that, but hopefully it's a short week.
• 22:33
  Tough spot for Dallas. Carolina's playing pretty
• 22:35
  decent. Let's go Carolina like that dog
• 22:38
  to fave move. I got Carolina money line.
• 22:40
  I got the mat. I want to say -140 ish.
• 22:44
  A couple other games. That's the only one that I've
• 22:45
  officially bet, but a couple other games that are catching my
• 22:48
  eye a little bit with, believe it or not, Mac Jones.
• 22:54
  He's covered the last couple games here.
• 22:56
  And The Jets are on the road at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
• 22:59
  And 70% of bets are on The Jets. But jets -3 1/2 is kind of
• 23:03
  falling down to three. So Jags are super contrary and
• 23:07
  they're at home. And you're maybe getting some
• 23:09
  reverse line movement here on Jacksonville.
• 23:12
  So I'm, I'm keeping an eye on Jacksonville plus 3 1/2.
• 23:15
  I'm also keeping an eye on possibly a money line for the
• 23:19
  Houston Texans. They're at home against Miami.
• 23:21
  They open this game as low as like -2 they're up to 2 1/2 or
• 23:25
  3. They're coming off a by.
• 23:26
  And the public's taking the points of Miami, yet this line
• 23:29
  is going toward Houston. We do have favorites off a by
• 23:31
  doing very well. They're around 55% against the
• 23:34
  spread last decade or so. So keep an eye on Houston.
• 23:38
  The other ones that caught my eye, I'd be a little wary of
• 23:41
  Pittsburgh. Philly public is playing
• 23:44
  Pittsburgh as it. So my first thought is, oh, I
• 23:46
  can get Mike Tomlin as a dog. Mike Tomlin as a dog has been
• 23:49
  unbelievable. 67% ATS 5 and O ATS this year.
• 23:53
  But Publix on Pittsburgh 70%. Yet you're seeing this line move
• 23:57
  a little bit toward Philly. They're -4 1/2 -, 5.
• 24:00
  Now they're up to 5 1/2. So I'm not going to ever argue
• 24:03
  Tomlin has a dog. But if that was like your
• 24:05
  favorite play, I'd just be a little bit wary of trendy dog
• 24:09
  and lines actually going away from them, if anything.
• 24:12
  Wait it out. Maybe you can get a six.
• 24:14
  Buffalo. Detroit is really, really
• 24:16
  interesting because who knows, maybe it's a Super Bowl matchup.
• 24:19
  This game is kind of hanging right where it's at.
• 24:22
  It's probably a perfect number -2 - 2 1/2 for Detroit.
• 24:26
  Right now, about 56% of bets are leaning Detroit.
• 24:30
  Although I did like the bet split on Detroit at circa 54%
• 24:33
  bets, 84% dollars. You could definitely tease up
• 24:37
  Buffalo. That's another thought of mine,
• 24:39
  2 1/2 up to 8 1/2. But I'm also thinking, is that a
• 24:41
  very low number to play Detroit at home on the money line, like
• 24:45
  -140 So keep an eye on that. Let's see how that develops over
• 24:48
  time. Indy and Denver, I like the
• 24:51
  Colts in this one. Denver open this game around A5
• 24:54
  point. Favorite at home and the public
• 24:56
  is on Denver. Currently Denver is getting 77%
• 25:00
  of bets. Very lopsided, but all those
• 25:03
  minus fives are down to four. 3 1/2 in favor of Indy.
• 25:06
  Both teams are coming off a bye, but you have a good Rd. dog
• 25:09
  system match with the Colts. Anthony Richardson four and one
• 25:14
  ATS is a dog. Shane Steiken 6 and three ATS as
• 25:17
  a dog. I did notice some movement
• 25:19
  toward the Colts. Tampa Bay.
• 25:21
  I'm intrigued by Tampa Bay +3 at the Chargers.
• 25:25
  They were getting 3 1/2 and it's down to three.
• 25:27
  I don't know if you're going to get the the three anymore.
• 25:30
  If anything it looks like it may get down to 2 1/2, but they're
• 25:32
  only getting 45% of bets and the lines moving in their direction.
• 25:35
  And Baker Mayfield has been good ATS as a dog in his career.
• 25:39
  He's at least with the Bucks. He's like 65% covering numbers.
• 25:44
  Patriots thinking about the Pats and the points, although of
• 25:47
  course, I'm in Boston. The Red Sox finally made a move.
• 25:50
  I don't know if you missed it. They picked up Garrett Crochet,
• 25:53
  gave up a lot of prospects for him.
• 25:55
  But anyway, Patriots are coming off a bye and the line moved in
• 25:59
  their direction at Arizona, +7 down to plus 6 1/2 or +6.
• 26:03
  It got down to 5 1/2 and I'm like, oh, Patriots are really
• 26:06
  sharp. And then I saw I was listening
• 26:07
  to sports talk radio. I'm one of those crazy people
• 26:10
  who loves Boston sports talk radio.
• 26:13
  But anyway, they were mentioning that there's an illness possibly
• 26:16
  going through the Patriots locker room and everyone's
• 26:18
  wearing a mask. And then I just saw the line
• 26:20
  after I heard that report shoot up five and a half to six or 6
• 26:23
  1/2. So keep an eye on that.
• 26:25
  If there's some some an illness going around.
• 26:28
  Green Bay, Seattle, I'm digging Seattle plus the points at
• 26:31
  Sunday Night Football. 65% of bets are on Green Bay.
• 26:35
  Heavily bet primetime game, but Green Bay was -3 and a lot of
• 26:38
  books are getting down to 2 1/2, so maybe it Tees up Seattle.
• 26:41
  Maybe just grab that three if you're available.
• 26:44
  Gino has been good as a dog with Seattle 57% against the spread.
• 26:48
  It's a contrarian primetime dog as well, so keep an eye on the
• 26:52
  Seattle Seahawks. You can get the key number of
• 26:54
  three in that one, but those are just a bunch of games that
• 26:57
  caught my eye early. Anyone want to take Danny
• 27:00
  DeVito? Tommy DeVito?
• 27:02
  Mr. Cutlets Plus 16 1/2 at home against Baltimore?
• 27:05
  That'll be a gross one, but I think there are some good
• 27:08
  opportunities hopefully to make some money this week in the
• 27:10
  NFLI. Wanted to mention this because I
• 27:12
  had a bunch of people say like, why aren't you playing Army Navy
• 27:16
  under? If you guys know me, I've been
• 27:18
  playing this for years and years and years.
• 27:20
  It I want to say it's lost maybe the last two years or last two
• 27:23
  out of three. At one point it was like 15 and
• 27:25
  O army Navy it's this Saturday at 3.
• 27:28
  The whole point is you just take the under because there are two
• 27:31
  military schools that run the ball a lot, chew up the clock.
• 27:35
  It opened up 40 1/2. It got down at one point to like
• 27:38
  38. And I'm like, man, I just missed
• 27:41
  the number. It just ticked back up to 3939
• 27:44
  1/2. Rhythm says it should be around
• 27:47
  40. So there wasn't a huge edge
• 27:49
  there. And Navy and Army have thrown
• 27:51
  the ball a little bit more this year.
• 27:53
  So I'm still thinking about the under, but I'm going to wait it
• 27:57
  out and see if maybe we can get, you know, if it creeps back up
• 27:59
  as high as like 4040 1/2. If we get that number, I'll,
• 28:03
  I'll take that under. But again, I, I hear you asking
• 28:06
  about Army Navy under because that's one of the death taxes in
• 28:09
  Army Navy unders, Military Academy unders.
• 28:12
  That's been a play for for many years at this point.
• 28:14
  So let's wait it out. Let's maybe try to just get the
• 28:17
  best price we can. But that about does it.
• 28:20
  Another pod here in the books, episode 180.
• 28:23
  Of course, this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
• 28:25
  And I start first by saying thank you.
• 28:27
  I, I always you, you don't want to dish out winner.
• 28:30
  So it's killing me that we've been struggling here since
• 28:33
  Friday. But again, sometimes that
• 28:34
  happens in sports betting. But I just want to say thank you
• 28:37
  for tuning in, for listening, for grinding with me through the
• 28:40
  UPS and the downs. You know, I, if this pot is
• 28:43
  dishing out winners left and right, it's easy to listen to.
• 28:46
  Maybe when it's not doing as well, people jump ship and, you
• 28:50
  know, kind of abandon it. But the true grinders who stick
• 28:53
  with it through the UPS and the downs.
• 28:55
  I appreciate you guys. It means a lot to me that we are
• 28:58
  we're like minded, data-driven and sometimes you have a tough
• 29:01
  stretch here, which we're in right now.
• 29:03
  But I was actually watching this new documentary.
• 29:06
  It's on Netflix. It's Churchill at war.
• 29:09
  But Winston Churchill. I've, I've learned a lot about
• 29:11
  him. I, I didn't know that he was a
• 29:13
  soldier in the Boer War. He was captured like he was this
• 29:17
  military like incredible soldier.
• 29:19
  And obviously, you know, he stayed strong and stayed
• 29:22
  optimistic. And when the Nazis are on the on
• 29:25
  the March, he says, you know, we're going to fight him in the
• 29:27
  air, fight him in the seas. Like you, just one of my
• 29:29
  favorite figures of all time. But he's got a great, he's got a
• 29:32
  great phrase. I I think it's when you come to
• 29:37
  AI forgot man. What's the phrase?
• 29:39
  Basically like if, if you're, if you're, if you're going, if
• 29:42
  you're going through hell, keep going.
• 29:44
  I think that's it. But that's something I'd always
• 29:47
  think of when I'm struggling. Like if you're going through
• 29:48
  hell, keep going, but I highly recommend the Netflix doc.
• 29:52
  It's really, really good. They like remastered all these
• 29:54
  speeches and like old like old like videos almost from like
• 29:59
  1940. It's incredible.
• 30:02
  So I think a Churchill when I'm struggling.
• 30:03
  But anyway, guys, if you enjoy the pod, go to our bad.
• 30:06
  You value the insights and the expertise and the
• 30:10
  recommendations, then please do me a favor.
• 30:12
  Give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 30:16
  It'll mean a lot to me. Help us to grow the pod.
• 30:18
  If you want to leave a nice note review or recommend it to a
• 30:21
  friend or click the follow button, that'll be fantastic as
• 30:24
  well. Secondly, holidays are creeping
• 30:27
  up here man. Before you know it, it'll be
• 30:29
  Christmas, Hanukkah, New Year's. If you're still struggling, have
• 30:32
  no clue what to get that person in your life for a Christmas
• 30:35
  gift or Hanukkah gift or whatever, I highly recommend
• 30:39
  making it very easy on yourself. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
• 30:42
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 30:44
  Buy a copy for you or a buddy or a stocking stuffer or a Secret
• 30:48
  Santa or, or what do they call it, the white whale or the
• 30:52
  something white elephant? But it's doesn't cost too much.
• 30:56
  It's the book that I wrote a few years back.
• 30:58
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 30:59
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 31:02
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place bet in
• 31:04
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 31:07
  a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
• 31:09
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 31:11
  So pick one up, bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you, I'll
• 31:14
  buy a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together
• 31:17
  next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
• 31:19
  day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
• 31:21
  My two favorite sports betting apps.
• 31:24
  Rhythm does a great job of powering this pod.
• 31:26
  They're recommended best bets or system matches, predictions for
• 31:30
  both player props and game bets. I value a ton.
• 31:34
  And then also Juice Reel where all the ASG podcast best bets
• 31:37
  are posted if you want to follow and support the team or consider
• 31:41
  it a tip jar. If you if you want to let me
• 31:43
  know you appreciate the pod. You can follow them for 499 a
• 31:45
  week. It's a cup of coffee, but I
• 31:48
  would hope that basically think of it this way.
• 31:50
  I give you 5 pods a week. Is each pod worth a dollar to
• 31:53
  you? I hope that it is.
• 31:54
  But you can support the team by following on juice reel.
• 31:57
  I'll you can always just click the link that I tweet out each
• 32:00
  day. But also you can go to social,
• 32:02
  the click the social tab bottom right on juice reel.
• 32:05
  Go to I think it's search juicers, type in ASG under score
• 32:10
  podcast. Boom, you can find me right
• 32:12
  there. But also you can get Robo
• 32:13
  Jackson best bet picks, arbitrage opportunity, sharp
• 32:16
  mush indicators. Shop for the best line makes it
• 32:19
  very easy to do that as well. You can do it all from juice
• 32:22
  reel. So download juice reel, download
• 32:24
  rhythm. Give it a shot with a 7 day free
• 32:26
  trial. I think you're going to like it.
• 32:28
  Of course, leave you with a couple things here.
• 32:30
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 32:34
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 32:35
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 32:39
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, or MGM Springfield in my
• 32:42
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
• 32:44
  They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down,
• 32:46
  where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
• 32:48
  shoes possible is found at the South Point.
• 32:51
  Or sweating, sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 32:53
  swimming pool when you catch a big ticket at Circa, Show me an
• 32:56
  OKC Dallas under. Show me an Arkansas plus 4, Penn
• 33:01
  State 3 1/2. Torian Prince over 3 1/2, man,
• 33:06
  just the bad beats. Just we, we can't escape them.
• 33:09
  But hopefully we'll escape them tonight, guys.
• 33:11
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 33:13
  Hopefully we'll catch some tickets together.
• 33:14
  As always, up, down, hot, cold, treading water, fighting for a
• 33:19
  win. Whatever the case may be, always
• 33:21
  remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
• 33:24
  public. Place yourself on the side of
• 33:25
  the house. Always be with the smart money.
• 33:27
  Never against it. Will smart money when?
• 33:29
  Every time. No.
• 33:31
  I'd venture to stay in this cold stretch.
• 33:32
  We're pretty consistently beating closing lines.
• 33:34
  We're just not getting the brakes, getting a little bit
• 33:37
  unlucky. We got to keep grinding though.
• 33:38
  We got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint, making
• 33:41
  bets, data-driven bets with our head and not our heart.
• 33:44
  And if we can do that against the public, with the house, with
• 33:47
  the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV, if we
• 33:50
  can do that long term, I'm pretty confident we're going to
• 33:53
  be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the night everybody.
• 33:56
  Have a great Wednesday. I'll be back at it tomorrow for
• 33:59
  episode 181 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 34:03
  powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
• 34:06
  great night.