Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Stephen Davis | Davis Commodities

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Stephen Davis | Davis Commodities · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: When we have USGA reports, the veracity or maybe correctness of the numbers is always kind of a topic of conversation.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Cooler heads, more pragmatic heads, tend to focus on the idea, well, these are the numbers that we're dealing with now.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now, in today's show, I don't I don't want to dwell on the election results, but I can't help but wonder if today's markets weren't dealing with those election results in some way.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue bodacious microphone of Agbull, your pal Davis Michelson here with you.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's November 4.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Ah, election day is finally over.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: The uh campaign ads are over.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: The news is still pumping out all kinds of election sort of content and whatnot.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: We'll we'll do some of that in as much as it pertains to our conversation.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: The conversation today was Stephen Davis from Davis Commodities LLC.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: My first time speaking with Mr.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Davis, just on his name alone.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: He gets a free pass coming through the door.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: So Stephen Davis, Davis Commodities will be coming up in just a moment.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: I got a couple of news items I want to highlight right quick.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: And I know you're probably wondering, yes, yes, I did get a haircut just this morning.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: I went out, I started show prepping a little bit and then headed over to the old barber shop.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's like Mayberry down there.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Had a great time.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Got it's more my winter dew.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: I usually go high and tight.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: This time I went just more medium, like a mid-fade, they called it.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, I stand by my decision.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: I'm happy with it.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: I hope you like it too, because you got to sit here and look at me, you know.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's the name of the game now.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: I've got a haircut for podcasting, I guess, as they say.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: It's Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: I am glad to have you along today.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: We're the financial channel obsessed with agriculture today.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: The two will collide in our conversation, hopefully with delightful results.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'd love to direct you first of all to agbull.com where you can check out our premium side.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: Set yourself up for success with Agbol Intel.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Go to Agbol.com or call 8557-37 Farm.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbol.com today.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you caught Tommy's election coverage last night, and then he and Weismeyer chatted it up.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: And I know that Tommy's gonna have a bit of a panel discussion later on, just as soon as I'm done here, he's gonna hop in to the studio and record some stuff.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: I believe he said he's got Wiesmeyer and Haney and and one other it's a Star Spangled cast to discuss the election results there.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: If you're if you're still thirsty for more, Ag Bull can provide, and we're more than happy to do that.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: And speaking of provide, come on, I've got a shout out today.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Mr.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Peterson, Indiana.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: Mr.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: Peters has got an Ag Bull Bluetooth speaker mounted right on.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: I saw a picture.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like a moisture reader, I'm pretty sure.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: So we're we're glad to have you aboard.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out to Indiana.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: All right, with all of that behind us now.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Let's move on to a few items here.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Private exporters reported a daily sale, 167,000 metric tons of soybeans to Spain for the 26-27 marketing year.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: We don't see Spain a whole lot on these daily sales here.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, bienvenidos, y'all.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's uh welcome.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: We're glad to have you.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: Come get some more.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Come get some more beans.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: Grab a little corn next time while you're here.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Spain.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: Ethanol production gained ground on the previous week and came in just above the high end of the range of expectations at 1.143 million barrels.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's a seasonal record and the second highest weekly production figure in the books, if I'm not mistaken.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: Ethanol stocks moved in the right direction as well, down nearly a half a percentage point from week ago at 24.434 million barrels in other energy news.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: crude oil inventories improved week on week.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Gasoline supplies fell, and distillates careened lower week on week.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Diesel inventories, in fact, fell to the lowest level since 2003.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: However, to the good, refinery utilization increased 1.7% on the week.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Another steep fall-off in uh in the crude oil markets today.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: We'll uh we'll see if there's anything to be to be known there when I talk to uh Steven a little bit later.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do get to the tail of the ticker.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock futures all dipped lower at the start of the day session, but quickly came off early session lows.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: Rounding into the lunch hour, strength was building in corn and winter wheat futures, with each up around three cents on the day.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans were around a nickel lower, off-session highs, but off-session lows as well, kind of trading mid-range about lunchtime.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle futures were moderately lower to the tune of nearly four bucks down.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Fat cattle also lower, but only slightly so.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: And lean hogs were down a dollar around lunchtime.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Looking over at my settlements here, I've got uh March corn up two cents on the day, 458 and a quarter.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: The deep up one and three quarters, 444 and a quarter was your December corn.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: On your uh soybean side, the November contract did dip below 11, but uh we're looking out to the jan these days.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: 11 and three-quarters lower was the January soybean futures contract, 1202 and one quarter at settlement.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like us to hold 12 bucks here in the jan.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: I've got uh soybean meal higher on the day.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil was moderately lower.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the wheats.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: I've got let's go to uh March Chicago wheat down a cent and a quarter.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Actually, the dece was a cent and a quarter lower as well for the Chicago.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: The March settled out at 609 and a half.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the KC, down four and three quarters was the March Kansas City wheat, six thirty-nine and three-quarters.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: The dece down three and a half in the KC, six thirty-two and three quarters at settlement.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the livestocks tab.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: It got it got kind of kind of gnarly there for a little while, but uh off session lows were the feeder cattle, the January down 265, settled at 325.72 and a half.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: February fat cattle 220.82 and a half at settlement, down 60 cents on the day.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: And over to the lean hogs.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now really got ugly in the lean hogs today.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: The February contract, a buck 22 and a half lower at 62.30.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: If you're still looking at the deceas that's down a buck and a nickel 5755.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: Looking a little further out.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: Let's look all the way out to the June.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: June lean hogs down a buck 35 at 83.92 and one half.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: With that, let me uh just quickly thank plus 500.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500, I've said it before.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: We here at Ag Bull and at AgSquawk use plus 500 T4 software every single day.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: Real-time quotes, futures, and options, a host of dandy features, plus 500, trust plus 500, thanks plus 500, trust plus 500.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: And with that Stephen Davis, Davis Commodities, Daviscomlc.com, Davis Commodities, Steven Davis.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm pleased as Punch to get to know you.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for taking some time for us this afternoon and for uh hopping on the show here with us.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: How are you, brother?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_03: I'm doing great, Davis.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_03: Thanks for having me.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_03: Absolutely.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_03: I'm I'm very happy that we have such similar names.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, or they reverse a little bit.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's a lot less for each of us to remember, you know?
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Steven, why don't you tell us a little bit about yourself, about daviscomlc.com.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: That's Davis Commodities.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Give us a give us a springboard for the conversation here.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: Help me orient myself with with who you are, where where'd you come from, and what are you doing these days?
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_03: Well, I'm originally from Memphis, Tennessee.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_03: Uh, grew up there and uh went to school at University of Tennessee, got my uh bachelor's in finance and worked at the Chicago Board of Trade briefly, and then came back to Memphis and started working in commodities starting in 1994.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_03: I now run a commodity trading advisor.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_03: I started trading in 2006 for client money, started up Davis Commodities in 2016, and yeah, been doing it ever since.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: So I would imagine that that you watch the uh the markets fairly closely, obviously, there.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: Let me just just tick off a few that will help set up some of my questions later on.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'd I'd like to talk a little bit about the fall off in crude, I'd like to talk a little bit about strength in the stock market, but also, of course, I guess corn and soybeans would be a huge focus for me.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: I I've got an awful lot of questions.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: Can we can we run that track or are there items there that you just assume I check off the list?
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_03: No, for sure.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_03: I've got uh for my trading programs, one of my programs is a macro program, and the other one is uh agricultural base.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_03: So I tend to deal with all of the above.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's a lot to hold together.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: How do you keep it all in?
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_03: It's kind of funny.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, back when uh I really started trading, everybody would talk about what was going on in the outside markets, the macro markets, and how it was moving what we were doing in ag.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_03: So I started learning about the macro markets, and sure enough, you started trading them as well.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_03: So you you learned enough, and all of a sudden you got a bias, and with a bias, you can formulate some kind of a trade plan.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, as I said in my intro here, the election, I mean, it's it's going to be hard to avoid in this conversation.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'd I'd like to avoid too much partisanship if we can.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a bit of a political atheist myself.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, an agnostic, I guess.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: Having said that, let me ask you, let's let's just go straight to the stock market and then dial in more toward the aggs as we go on.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: But the overall stock market action today, I've been watching that that magic number 52K in the Dow.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I know you're not a big Dow guy.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now we're above 53K in the Dow, or at least we were last time I checked.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: Let me let me check my plus 500.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, yes.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: I just made an extra nickel by saying plus 500 one more time.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we're up over 53 today.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to me about the the equities at large, those that macro environment.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I wonder if there's anything that that you can tell us about sentiments about the election.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Is are we seeing a response to the election in the stock market?
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: I guess is where I would start us.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_03: So I think that there are two main drivers behind the rally today.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_03: One is seasonal.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_03: Almost uh every uh midterm election, you rally afterward.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_03: It's varying degrees of rally depending on whether you're basically unchanged or down a little bit on the year, then you tend to have a big rally.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_03: And if you're already up on the year like we are, you tend to have a smaller rally, but you tend to rally post-midters.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_03: The second thing is I think the market likes gridlock with the Senate and House not having a two-thirds majority.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_03: Uh they can pass whatever legislation they want, but Trump is going to veto anything that he doesn't like, and they don't have the ability, as a general rule, unless they go with a bipartisan kind of a bill, for anything to get through.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_03: So I I think that we're gonna see a lot of vetoes.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_03: I think we're gonna see a lot of gridlock in Washington, and as a general rule, the market tends to like that.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: The market likes gridlock.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's a that's a really interesting take there because it it almost feels counterintuitive.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: I would think that the market would want to see an environment where where something can happen.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: Give us something to trade.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: But the uh I think you're saying that's not necessarily the case.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_03: And I don't care whether you're Democratic Party or Republican, uh if you have too much partisanship, uh it tends to move the scales a little bit too much.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_03: And with the way things sit right now, you know, the the market is pretty much free to do whatever it uh wants to do without fear that you're gonna get a bill that is going to change the underlying fundamentals too much.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: Is there a particular uh uh sector uh that you you find uh especially interesting uh at present?
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_03: Well, I mean the big tech is obviously where the driver has been.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_03: They're driving the GDP growth in and of themselves, you know, these hyperscalers.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_03: So that that is a massive deal.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_03: And there's been a lot of rhetoric about clamping down on the build-out of these big data centers.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_03: And with gridlock in Washington, if Congress passes something to uh ban the expansion of the data centers, then Trump is going to veto that.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_03: I think the biggest risk on the stock market side from rallying significantly further is what happened in the states.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_03: So a lot of these candidates who were elected uh ran on a platform of no new data centers.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_03: Well, uh you've got something like uh a third of the new data centers are slated to be built in Texas.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_03: And the platform for the new governor of Texas was no new data centers.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_03: Now, these aren't places that have already broken ground, they're still in the planning stages, and those can be shut down.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_03: So that may change the geography of where these data centers are built, but I don't really think it stops the expansion.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_03: The price of compute continues to go up, and as long as that continues to move in that direction, more data centers will be built.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: You used a word there that that uh spurred a memory in my head.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: Did I hear somebody say we're we're not supposed to call them data centers anymore?
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: They're supposed to be compute campuses.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: Did I hear that somewhere?
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: Have you heard this?
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: I have not heard that, but we're already playing games with the name of it.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's compute campuses now.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_03: But of course, it's not artificial intelligence anymore, it's super intelligence.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: Super intelligence.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, how super is it?
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's super duper, super and duper, everybody.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's like country and western music, is what it is.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's just twice as good.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: A tremendous amount of money, though.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: And it, I don't know how much of that money from the uh the data centers, the uh compute campuses is is actually getting back into the the pockets of of those who made the initial outlays there.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: At some point, doesn't there have to be some kind of return, some kind of bang for the for the buck for the guys building these things?
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: Have we hit that point yet?
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_03: Well, no.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, they're still in a a cash flow negative kind of a regime right now.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_03: You know, Google is probably the case in point.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, they've been cash flow positive for so many years, I don't even know how many, considering they're only what a 28-year-old company.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_03: But yeah, they've stopped their their stock buybacks, their cash flow negative.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_03: You know, basically all of the the major hyperscalers are cash flow negative at this point in time.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_03: However, as I said, their revenues are going up.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_03: So you know, I think it's just a matter of time.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_03: SpaceX's uh earnings were very interesting from that standpoint as they are moving into the forefront of uh compute, period.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_03: And their outlook was was very positive for the next three to five years.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll be interesting to contrast the impact that the opinions of the average voter in the U.S.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: have about data centers and how much impact that has on the construction, how much headway these legislators who have promised no no data centers, how much headway they can make compared to the potential if the shareholders begin to say, you know what, I just can't, I can't wait any longer.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: No more.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: No, you're not, we're not building anymore until we start, you know, we get these dividends back.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: We get the we start making a little little profit on these deals here.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: I feel like it it the deck has got to be stacked in favor of the shareholder rather than the legislator, there, doesn't it?
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_03: Well, for sure.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, the shareholders will, and not just shareholders, but the bondholders as well.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, these companies are issuing a lot of bonds in order to finance construction.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_03: So you could get pushback from shareholders and bondholders alike that the profit doesn't look good enough for continued investment.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_03: That's not where we are today.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_03: Is that a possibility?
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_03: Sure, absolutely.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_03: But right now we're seeing, like like I said earlier, the price of compute is still going up, which means we don't have enough data centers at this point in time.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: All right, interesting.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and I suppose really the impact could be all right, well, it's uh it's not a friendly legislative environment, regulatory environment, whatever you know these these legislators want to do to discourage them from being built in their states.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we'll just go to Idaho instead.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: We'll go to what Montana, we'll go, we'll go someplace else and just just build more data centers there.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's gotta be the way it goes, yeah.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_03: 100%.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and going from memory, Texas and Virginia are the top two for data center construction at this point in time.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_03: Now, Virginia has had democratic governor prior to this, and they're allowing the construction.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_03: So it's not really pervasive, it just depends on kind of state by state, locality by locality, and they will go to wherever they're treated best.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: That makes a lot of sense.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, so you noticed or you you mentioned the historical tendency that after a midterm election, the stock market tends to rally for for a couple of really good reasons that you mentioned historically.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: Has it been a flash in the pan?
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: And then we just sort of retrace once the election hangover or the uh the election buzz wears off, or are these gains that we can expect the the markets will generally maintain, in your opinion?
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_03: That that's a great question because uh you you think that you get past the fear, I guess it would be the right word, of what's going to happen during an election, and then all of a sudden you get a relief rally.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_03: But that's not the case.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_03: Uh as a general rule, you are still higher 12 months out.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_03: Uh there are some select cases like 1929, 1930, just going from memory where that did not work.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_03: But I think we can all agree that we're not in the Great Depression right now.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: We got outliers there with those years in particular.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: There's always an outlier.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: Very good.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: So potentially, historically, the tendency is for basically kind of kind of a leg higher.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's uh that's really interesting.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna I'm gonna keep an eye on that.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's talk a little bit about crude oil.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: I don't have the chart up in front of me.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: I probably should have pulled it up before I started talking about it, but it looks like we had another we had some more pressure on crude oil today.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: Is I don't know.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: Do you have you got any idea what's behind the the negative sentiments on on crude currently, or is there peace in Iran?
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_03: Well, I I guess you could bet that way.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_03: He I'm not betting that way at this point in time.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_03: You are getting a little bit better rhetoric out of the Iranian regime where they the they are actually now not treating the nuclear question as quite as much of a third rail as they were previously.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_03: They're open to a little bit more discussion.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_03: I'm not really sure how far that's gonna go, but uh I'm not on the inside either.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_03: All I know is that we have seen this happen to crude oil multiple times since the war started, and we always regain the highs.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it just it's uh it it's a feel-good story.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_03: Maybe the markets got loaded up a little bit too long on crude oil.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_03: We are seeing better flow of crude out of the Strait of Hormuz, which obviously helps.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_03: Uh it's still running, what about 20%, I believe, under where it was prior to the war, but we are seeing better oil flow.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_03: So, you know, that that obviously helps as well.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_03: I I think the the big thing that uh is still a concern for me is between the Russia-Ukraine war and Ukraine hitting refineries inside Russia.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_03: Uh early in the war, we saw damage done to refineries north of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian attacks.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_03: And we're just not quite up to snuff uh on uh product uh refineries.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_03: Capacity at this point in time.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_03: So I'm still a little concerned.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_03: Maybe see a glimmer of hope, but I'm kind of once bitten twice shy at this point in time where we've seen Iran and and US come to an agreement to stop hostilities.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_03: And I think that lasted a grand uh 48 hours before they started up again, and it was completely ditched in what seven to ten days.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_03: So I'm skeptical, but obviously hopeful.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: I just wonder because uh if I look over at the I got the WTI up in front of me, that just is what came up first.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: You know, at the at the front end of the market, we're calling it 750, 730 lower, out to the feb 685 lower.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: You know, look clear out to June, we're still 590 lower there.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I guess I looked at that, and given this point in time, and maybe there's a there's a somewhat seasonal, you might call tendency right around election times, too.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: But I don't is is there a sense?
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, the Dems have have have captured the House, they've captured the Senate.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: Trump isn't going to be able to attack Iran anymore.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: The war is over.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: But it my my problem with that is okay, but not yet.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_00: There's still some time, you know, in in the current Congress.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: And number two, slinking away from Iran and just saying, you know, we're we're moving on to other things now.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's the end of that.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: That doesn't fix anything either, does it?
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_03: No, no, not at all.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_03: You know, I think that with the lame duck congress, one of the things that should that will probably be a priority is passing some kind of military expenditures ahead of the Democratic Party gaining control.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_03: So I think there will be some at least a push to get some stuff done in the lame duck congress just to uh just so Trump doesn't have to deal with the funding issue, because that would be an easy way for uh the for Congress to basically force the end of the war.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_03: If we don't have the funding for the war, then it's kind of gotta be over, right?
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_03: Or they have to start pulling funds from other places.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_00: Let me kind of use this as a segue because yesterday I reported it was a professor from Texas AM who still holds out hope.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if if you watch this at all or not.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: So we can just move on quickly.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: I want to go to Corn next, but I want to get there talking about Farm Bill 2.0.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_00: There was a Texas AM professor who put out a paper that that says he thinks we can still get the farm bill signed by Christmas time and gave the example of 2018 in which the Trump administration lost the uh the control of Congress to the Dems, but still before Christmas had a farm bill put in place.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: I wonder, I'm coming out of left field for you on this one.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's unfair of me, but have you been watching the farm bill at all?
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: And along these lines of what you're saying, do you believe that that there's enough juice in uh what's left of this Congress to get it to get a farm bill across the finish line?
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: Do you keep an eye on that?
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_03: It's not really high on my priority list, but I am paying attention to that process to some extent.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_03: I and I agree with the AM professor that it will probably be a priority for the Republicans to go ahead and push through the farm bill as it sits.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_03: And at the same time, I'm not sure that it makes a whole lot of sense for the Democratic Party to push back at all either.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_03: Do they really want to go through the process of putting together a brand new farm bill that may or may not be what people truly want?
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_03: Then they have to own that.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_03: So I don't know that there's going to be a whole lot of pushback from the Democratic Party.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_03: And I do think there is an incentive for the Republicans to go ahead and push it through.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we and I I listed out some names that I had found who are going to be leaving the House and the Senate AG Committee just because they're retiring, they've run in other races, or something like that.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_00: The the phrase brain drain kind of comes to mind.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_00: Not that they won't be replaced with smart people, but just because these folks have put this thing together and have almost gotten it to the finish line so quickly.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: Do you think that the for these folks, because there are so many leaving these committees, that maybe that adds a little bit of extra impetus that, hey man, we got to get this done and then we'll sign it and we're out?
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_03: I believe so.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_03: I I think it it is something that would be beneficial to both parties at this point in time to just go ahead and let that one go through.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_03: Whether that happens or not, you know, I don't have the crystal ball for sure.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_03: Right.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_03: But I do think that there is a benefit for both parties to go ahead and get this over the finish line.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: You know, past performance is no indication of future uh results in politics either, is it?
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_03: As the NFA makes me state so many times that it's correct.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, what a world it would be if we could just see the future.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_00: But alas, alas.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and this is why I need to talk to smart folks like you, Steven, for uh for just tips, insights, and and some some damn fine thoughts.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's get to corn.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_00: Corn looks like it's kind of looking for a bottom here.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: We were just a scoche higher today.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_00: Start me here because I think this this might hit you hit you right where you live.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: Are we beholden to the funds or is there more that can spur the the the corn market higher from this point here?
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: How do you like it?
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_03: Well, uh regarding the funds, you know, they were a big long coming into the October report.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_03: It kind of took the wind out of their sails.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_03: They've done a really good job of liquidating their position, I believe, at this point in time, even though last week CFTC did not show them completely flat, they're they're pretty cleaned up at this point in time.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_03: So I don't think that uh the funds themselves liquidating is any kind of a push right now.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_03: The question is, do they want to go short?
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_03: So that comes down to really, you know, we we kind of know vaguely what supply is going to look like.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_03: You know, we did get building forma SP Global yesterday, as well as uh Stone X put out their estimate, and both of them were up just a little bit from their previous numbers.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_03: Okay, so maybe the USDA raises the the yield just a little bit, maybe they lower it just a little bit, but I kind of think the corn number was was kind of honed in.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_03: So it's not a supply deal that we're that we're trying to confront here.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_03: I think the problem right now for corn is demand.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_03: And you know, basically, if you look at through last week's export sales report, total export commitments in corn are down a third from a year ago.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_03: We're only 66 percent.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_03: And USDA has a very minor decrease in corn exports for the year.
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_03: We have to really, really pick up and pick up fast in order to get anywhere close to what USDA is estimating at 3.3 billion bushels of exports.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_03: So we we have a demand problem right now, and as we know, low prices cure low prices.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_03: So could we see a short-term rally uh for post-harvest?
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_03: Absolutely.
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_03: I believe that is probably forthcoming.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_03: Most of the the uh early sales during harvest are pretty much done, and farmer is tucking away the rest of the crop, and no incentive really to move it at this point in time.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_03: So do I think we could get a short-term pop?
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_03: Yes.
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_03: Do I think prices have seen their bottom long term?
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_03: No, I don't.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and if there is risk, maybe a cut to uh to the corn export forecast, that could create some real problems here, couldn't it?
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_03: Yes, absolutely.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, my ending stocks, just based on current pace of demand, what I'm looking at going forward, and obviously with the big caveat assumption that Brazil and Argentina are going to have normal production this year.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_03: You know, they're just now planting the crop.
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_03: I can't assume anything other than normal at this point in time, but you know there are risks, obviously, to growing any crop, but the the pace of sales needs to pick up and it needs to pick up in a big way in order for us to to not end up with significantly higher ending stocks than the USDA is currently projecting.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_03: And obviously coinciding with that would be lower price.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Mexico's been doing its part in the they've been they've been importing a pretty decent amount of corn, at least it seems like they show up in the export export sales numbers there.
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_00: Let's uh let's move on over to the uh to the soybeaners.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_00: I was thinking about soy oil.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: And it seems like soy oil might be priced pretty favorably if you're a biofuel producer, if you're an end user of some kind.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_00: But uh an old, old, wise old man once told me that you should never trust a soybean oil-led bean rally.
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that still applies in today's market conditions or not, but I do like that the Jan held 12 today.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we've got that to hang our hats on, Steven.
• 31:49
  unknown: There's that.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_04: Absolutely.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_03: And and believe me, uh, you know, growing up in in the industry from my early 20s, that was always the adage never trust an oil-led rally, never.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_03: And that really hasn't held true for the last several years with the the advent of the renewable diesel and biodiesel programs.
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_03: You know, meal languished at you know,$300 or cheaper for shoot over a year.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_03: And means we're led higher by oil.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_03: So you know, maybe we're maybe we're changing the old adage.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_03: Maybe.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_00: I wonder what it would what would the new adage be then?
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: Never trust a meal led rally?
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_00: Was that what will we go that far?
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_03: At this point in time, yes.
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_03: As a matter of fact, I think you could actually say that, even though it's 80% of the of the crush volume, yeah, it's uh it's only what 50% of the value right now.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, which is pretty astounding when you talk about 80% of the volume is only 50% of the value uh of the value.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so uh it's very interesting.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_03: And we've seen a great uh increase in meal demand.
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_03: And once again, as I said earlier, low prices cure low prices.
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_03: You know, we we were overproducing meal, so we had to throw it into the export market because it was cheap.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_03: A lot of the uh poorer countries around the world increased their meal consumption into their you know, poultry, especially, and boom, new damn new demand.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_03: The problem is when we rallied from you know 280, 300 up to 360, 370, well, meals no longer cheap.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_03: And we saw them kind of back away.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know, if you and I could get together on that, on uh never trust a meal led rally rather than oil, we could call it the Davis theorem, if you like.
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the Davis Principle.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_04: Oh, I like that even better.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_04: Yes, Davis Principle.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_04: I love it.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_04: I love it.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_04: Let's run with that one.
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_00: I don't I don't think there's anything at all wrong with that, and uh, we get both of our names out there at the same time.
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_00: It has except a little squared.
• 33:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Principle Squared.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: Boy, we're getting we're getting somewhere now, buddy.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: So uh so I I guess let let me just wrap up this part of the conversation with corn and soybeans.
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_00: Moving forward, it feels like there's a better story for recovery in corn than there is for soybeans, at least right now.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_00: However, with this oil demand, it does feel like there might be a pretty decent floor under soybeans, at least for the present time.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_00: Would you sign off on most of what I just said?
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_03: So I was thinking about that actually last night and today after Stone X came out with their huge 55 bushel yield for the US.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_03: And you usually go down until we've had the biggest crop number.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_03: Was that it?
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_03: Did we just uh I mean, going back to happy days, did we just jump the shark?
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_03: And I I kind of feel like we're we're very close right now.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_03: 55 is a big number.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_03: It's a huge number.
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_03: And honestly, you know, I'm not gonna say that it can't happen.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_03: It's not my base case by any stretch of the imagination.
• 35:12
  SPEAKER_03: Uh but I think that with the USDA report next Tuesday, I do think they are gonna raise the yield again.
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_03: I don't think they're gonna hit Stone's number, but I do think it could be 54 plus.
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_03: I think it's a high likelihood of it starting with 54.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_03: I think that we could get one more sell-off based off of that and the simple fact that the funds still have a big long position in beans and meal, both.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_03: So a little bit more liquidation could happen because of that.
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_03: Once we get through that, I kind of feel like we're gonna get to our post-harvest rally in beans as well.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_03: And also, we have to keep some risk premium in the market for South American growing weather.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_03: And everybody wants to talk about the El Nino this year, so that may actually keep a little bit more premium in the market for South American growing weather.
• 36:01
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, hang in there, everybody.
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_00: I like I like the sound of that, Stephen.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_00: I think you're I think you're spot on.
• 36:07
  SPEAKER_00: Do you want to talk about wheat at all?
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_00: Have you got any thoughts on on the wheat market presently?
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_03: Wheat is a very interesting market at this point in time.
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, we've just seen it fall two dollars.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_03: And the reason why we've fallen two dollars is very simply we're not doing any business.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, export sales are just abysmal, especially in hard red winter wheat.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_03: So the thing that I find interesting is that peace does not seem to be breaking out between Russia and Ukraine.
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_03: They've made a couple of better overtures, but nothing is coming through as being solid.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_03: So I do think we still have Black Sea risk out there.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_03: But uh looking forward, I think one of the interesting things is that we had relatively high prices of wheat during planting time, and especially when we're setting insurance prices, and that I do believe is going to lead to an expansion in both hard winter and softbred winter and even winter white acres.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_03: So looking forward to July, once again heading back to El Nino, we typically have a wet winter in the plains, which should allow for a good start to the growing season.
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_03: We all know wheat is made in the spring, but it does look like the tendencies during El Nino years, which I you know, El Nino gives you tendencies, it doesn't give you facts, right?
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_03: But the tendency is for the the yields to come in above trend.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_03: So we could be looking at uh more acres and uh a better yield as we move into the spring.
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds like we might see in a in several months' time, we might see today's wheat prices and think, oh gosh, remember when?
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_00: Remember when wheat was 850?
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 38:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, very good.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_00: I would I guess I I want to give you a moment before we move on to some to some nonsense here.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: I've loved our conversation.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: I've got a lot to digest, and I know our viewers do as well.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: But Stephen Davis, I just I wonder if you might have some some broad, overarching thoughts.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: Is there a bullet point that you wanted to bring up that we didn't get to?
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to open up the floor to you generically and just ask you to to just go just for a few moments.
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_00: Would you do that for us, please?
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_00: The give us some highlights, give us something you're interested in.
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_00: Anything at all, buddy.
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_03: Well, I mean, uh, I want to talk about El Nino for a second.
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_03: Most people, when they report on El Nino, it's always El Nino is bad.
• 38:50
  SPEAKER_03: And that's not the case.
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_03: And it causes weather anomalies or weather an uh tendencies for weather anomalies in many different areas across the globe.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_03: You know, a wetter plains during the winter in the US, really good moisture in Argentina and southern Brazil during their growing season, a little bit drier than normal up in northern Brazil during their growing season.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_03: But once again, these are just tendencies, and they're not necessarily all bad, nor do they always come to fruition.
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_03: Australia is a very good case in point this year.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_03: Here we have the strongest El Nino in 50 years.
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_03: Just going for memory here.
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_03: And Australia is supposed to be super dry and have a poor wheat crop.
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_03: Well, they weren't super dry and they don't have a poor wheat crop.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_03: So they're tendencies only.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_03: And I wouldn't just don't get sucked in that you know a a weather phenomenon is necessarily good or bad.
• 39:47
  SPEAKER_03: It just kind of is.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_03: And some places it's good and some places it's bad.
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_03: And you just kind of have to figure out how does that average out across the entire spectrum.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_03: So I mean, there have been so many stories that we've had over the past say six months.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_03: You know, China's gonna buy 17 billion dollars of other ag on top of the 25 million tons of soybeans.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_03: That hasn't really come to fruition, has it?
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, the fertilizer, nobody was gonna have fertilizer, and corn acres were gonna be sharply lower.
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_03: Well, we had the biggest corn bean pie, I think, in history last year, that this growing season.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_03: So, I mean, there you just have to be careful of the stories and actually dig in a little bit deeper.
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, that is that is some horse sense right there.
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_00: Stephen Davis, Davis Commodities.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, if you'd if you'd like to to check out some more from Steven, go to Daviscomlc.com.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's Daviscomlc.com.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you're uh are you usually in Memphis?
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_00: Is that where your your home base is?
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_00: Usually you're you're in Nashville today at Grasafi Studios, I understand.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_03: Yes, uh I'm based out of Memphis, but I spend about a week out of every month in Nashville as well.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_03: It's good uh good com uh camaraderie up here.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let me put you on the spot.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: You can have one or the other.
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_00: Memphis Barbecue, Nashville Hot Chicken.
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_00: What's it gonna be?
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_03: That's a no-brainer for me.
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_03: I like Nashville Hot Chicken more than Memphis Barbecue, and that's it's only because barbecue gives me a food hangover.
• 41:28
  SPEAKER_03: I did not expect that response at all.
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_03: I love Memphis barbecue.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_03: I just don't like how I feel after I ate it, after I've consumed it.
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_00: No, we're very proud of our barbecue up here in Kansas City, but looking into the history, the recipe came from Memphis originally.
• 41:42
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, did not know that.
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_00: We put some tweaks on it.
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_00: We somebody put some tweaks on it to make it uh KC its own distinct flavors, but uh yeah, it's uh the bedrock came from Memphis.
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_00: So you're there in Nashville up on the ninth floor.
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: If you look out the window there, talk to me about the weather.
• 42:00
  SPEAKER_00: What's the weather look like today?
• 42:01
  SPEAKER_00: Is it hot?
• 42:01
  SPEAKER_00: Is it sunny?
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_00: What are you dealing with?
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_03: It's raining.
• 42:05
  SPEAKER_03: It's it's got a it's been raining all morning.
• 42:07
  SPEAKER_03: It started raining about uh 10 o'clock last night, and uh it's been pretty much almost solid rain.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're dry and sunny here in Kansas City today.
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go to the National Weather Service.
• 42:20
  SPEAKER_00: A trailing cold front, they say, continues to track toward the Ohio Valley and southeast this morning.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_00: Showers and thunderstorms expected to focus along the front for the next few days, while steady rainfall wraps around an associated surface low over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_00: Impacts with that should be limited, although isolated heavy rainfall and severe weather is possible today over portions of the lower Ohio Valley and the Southeast.
• 42:47
  SPEAKER_00: Um, Stephen, I want you in on this.
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_00: Let's jib jab just a little bit if you got anything to throw in here.
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_00: I've got some items of mild interest, according to popculture madness.com on this day, November 4 in history.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_00: First of all, in 1879, it's the birthday of Will Rogers, American actor and screenwriter.
• 43:07
  SPEAKER_00: There's a shot of uh Mr.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_00: Rogers right there in 1922.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you're an archaeology nerd or not, the entrance to King Tutankhamun's tomb, King Tut, was discovered in Egypt in the Valley of the Kings by English archaeologist Howard Carter.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_00: Ooh, this one will get political.
• 43:28
  SPEAKER_00: Have you seen the news from uh from France and from all around Europe with the uh the student protests, the quote unquote student protests?
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_00: Are you have you seen this?
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, yes, I have.
• 43:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we'll get this on this day in 1979.
• 43:41
  SPEAKER_00: The American Embassy in Tehran, Iran was seized.
• 43:45
  SPEAKER_00: 500 Iranian students seized the U.S.
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_00: Embassy, took 90 hostages for 444 days in the Iran hostage crisis.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_00: What do you know?
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_00: All started by by students, and uh, we're still uh still goofing around with Iran to this very day.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_00: And just one more, 1961.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's the birthday of Ralph Macchio, American actor.
• 44:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you you may have seen him in the uh the Karate Kid movies back in the day.
• 44:14
  SPEAKER_00: I definitely saw the Karate Kid.
• 44:16
  SPEAKER_00: Um interesting.
• 44:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um, if you watch the new series out, Cobra Kai, which is like they're grown-ups now, Cobra Kai actually presents Danielson kind of as the villain of Karate Kid and Johnny Lawrence the victim.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_00: They kind of this, you know, almost a this victim of uh of a uh a coach and an overbearing coach and the school that demands you know the no mercy and all this sort of stuff.
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_00: Danielson kind of comes out looking like uh looking like the creep in that one.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_00: It made me really think.
• 44:51
  SPEAKER_00: It made me really think.
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_03: If you want to run along that uh that line, if there's been a lot of memes come out here lately about how the Empire in Star Wars was actually the good guys.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_00: We could go down that rabbit trail too.
• 45:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we could.
• 45:05
  SPEAKER_00: We absolutely they're supposed to bring balance to the force, not destroy the Sith.
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_04: Well, and I mean if you think about it, the Empire had peace for the most part.
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_04: I mean, come on, it's not a bad gig.
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 45:20
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna have to talk again, Stephen.
• 45:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, Steven Davis from Davis Commodities, thanks so much for being here on the uh the program with me this afternoon.
• 45:27
  SPEAKER_00: I appreciate you, brother.
• 45:28
  SPEAKER_00: Would you come back sometime?
• 45:29
  SPEAKER_00: Should we talk again?
• 45:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like that.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_03: I'd love to, Davis.
• 45:32
  SPEAKER_03: Thank you so much for having me on.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_03: I appreciate it.
• 45:34
  SPEAKER_00: Stephen Davis, Davis Comlc.com.
• 45:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, let me uh just say once more if you haven't had a chance, please visit eggbull.com.
• 45:43
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• 45:50
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• 45:52
  SPEAKER_00: There's a drop down at the top there.
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_00: There's Wiesmeyer's smiling face.
• 45:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's what he looks like in real life, too, by the way.
• 46:00
  SPEAKER_00: All right, eggbull.com or uh call 855-737 Farm Eggbull in the morning.
• 46:06
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get you set up for the day's trade, and then we'll talk just you and me tomorrow afternoon.
• 46:11
  SPEAKER_00: Come on back, y'all, for more Egg Squawk.