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How has portfolio protection changed? · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Number two here on the Financial Exchange, and markets are
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  Speaker 2: kind of just weird today quite honestly.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it is weird. I was gonna say this during
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  Speaker 3: the first hour, but you never see the Nasdaq and
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  Speaker 3: Dow in negative territory with the S ANDP in positive territory.
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  Speaker 3: It has to be such a specific list of companies
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  Speaker 3: that are negative for the day for that to happen.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, it's got.
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  Speaker 2: Basically, what you need to have are a couple of
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  Speaker 2: Dow components down big, which you do have today. Like
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  Speaker 2: if you look through what's going on in the Dow,
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  Speaker 2: your big losers on the day are really United Health,
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  Speaker 2: but also Intel, also down a couple percentage points. But
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  Speaker 2: United Health now down twenty three percent in a single day,
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  Speaker 2: so ouch. In order to get the NASDAK down, you
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  Speaker 2: need in Vidia and maybe Apple down right, But then
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  Speaker 2: to get the S and P up, you need most
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  Speaker 2: other stocks up.
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  Speaker 4: And that's what you have.
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  Speaker 2: If you take a look right now in the S
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  Speaker 2: and P five hundred, they are three hundred and twenty
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  Speaker 2: nine more stocks up than down today, So it's it's
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  Speaker 2: pretty much the vast majority of the market is rallying,
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  Speaker 2: but a few big stocks are dragging the Nasdaq and
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  Speaker 2: the Dow, so at the moment, the Dow is off
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  Speaker 2: one and a quarter percent five hundred points, the SMP
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  Speaker 2: is up a third of a percent seventeen points, and
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  Speaker 2: the Nasdaq is down six tenths of a percent, or
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  Speaker 2: about seven points. I'm sorry, six hundreds of a percent,
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  Speaker 2: not six tenths. So that's what you got going on
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  Speaker 2: in your major US in disease bonds, the tenure Treasury
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  Speaker 2: up two basis points to four point three percent. Not
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  Speaker 2: too much movement there. Mortgage rates continuing to drop just
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  Speaker 2: a touch yesterday, down to six point eight six percent,
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  Speaker 2: So back off of the uh, you know, seven plus
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  Speaker 2: percent range that we tapped into for a couple of
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  Speaker 2: days last week. Still not back down to the six
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  Speaker 2: point six percent area that we were hanging out in
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  Speaker 2: before last week, but still better than being over seven.
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  Speaker 2: On the side of oil and gas prices, West Texas
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  Speaker 2: Intermediate moving up again today, up a dollar and one
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  Speaker 2: cent a barrel to sixty three forty eight, the triple
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  Speaker 2: A national average for gas prices, though continuing to slide
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  Speaker 2: very modestly, down two tenths of ascent to three sixteen
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  Speaker 2: and seven tenths, and then we've got Gold taken a
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  Speaker 2: bit of a breather today after a monster day yesterday
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  Speaker 2: and just a.
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  Speaker 4: Ridiculous start to the year.
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  Speaker 2: But Gold off forty two dollars and seventy cents an
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  Speaker 2: ounce to thirty three hundred and three dollars and seventy cents.
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  Speaker 3: I do always love my Wednesdays when I go up
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  Speaker 3: to New Hampshire for the day. If you've ever noticed
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  Speaker 3: I'm not on the program on Wednesdays, it's because I'm
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  Speaker 3: in New Hampshire. But I also talked to Ed Lambert
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  Speaker 3: down the Cape on Wednesday mornings, and so I'm always
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  Speaker 3: filling up my car at like a BJ's in New Hampshire,
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  Speaker 3: and yesterday paid two dollars and sixty cents a gallon.
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  Speaker 3: And then I tell Ed that down the Cape and
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  Speaker 3: he's like, you know, forty cents higher on the on
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  Speaker 3: the you know, every pump that he goes to see.
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  Speaker 3: So it's you're starting to see it at the at
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  Speaker 3: the gas stations with you know certain places. Yeah, I
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  Speaker 3: would imagine should this continue, you could see two point
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  Speaker 3: fifty gas sometime soon.
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  Speaker 4: You can tell I just drive up to New Hampshire
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  Speaker 4: to get your gas.
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  Speaker 3: That's what I did tell I said, you know, either
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  Speaker 3: New Hampshire or just that Root One Stretch in what's
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  Speaker 3: what's just north of Boston there? What towns at Lynd No,
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  Speaker 3: it's not so Sagas. Yeah, that Root One in Saga
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  Speaker 3: Stretch has some really cheap gas too.
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  Speaker 4: It does. It does.
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  Speaker 2: The Wall Street Journal every quarter asks a bunch of
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  Speaker 2: economists lots of questions, things like, what's the best color
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  Speaker 2: for a rose? How many tomatoes does the average family
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  Speaker 2: eat in a year? And hey, do you think there's
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  Speaker 2: going to be a recession in the next twelve months? Importantly,
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  Speaker 2: and here's what they saw is that the percentage of
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  Speaker 2: not the percentage, but the likelihood of recession in the
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  Speaker 2: next twelve months jumped to forty five percent from previously
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  Speaker 2: being down in twenties. So economists much more confident that
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  Speaker 2: there's gonna be a recession in the next twelve months
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  Speaker 2: than they thought at the start of the year.
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  Speaker 4: It still is lower.
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  Speaker 2: Than in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, when
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  Speaker 2: economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal were responding with
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  Speaker 2: a sixty plus percent chance of a recession.
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  Speaker 4: So this is a good teaching moment.
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  Speaker 2: Just because economists are predicting or not predicting recession does
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  Speaker 2: not mean that one will actually either occur or not.
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  Speaker 3: Agreed. You know, I don't even have any sort of
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  Speaker 3: correlation here to say are they right even a majority
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  Speaker 3: of the time when these surveys take place. So look,
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  Speaker 3: everybody's more worried about recession, right, Sure, every CEO out
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  Speaker 3: there has mentioned it as, if not a certainty, a
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  Speaker 3: high likelihood, And to see a jump this rapid is
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  Speaker 3: I think concerning to me. But yeah, definitely understand that
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  Speaker 3: they're economists all throughout twenty twenty two and the early
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  Speaker 3: part of twenty twenty three, where sixty plus percent of
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  Speaker 3: them were saying we would see a recession in the
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  Speaker 3: next twelve months, and guess what we didn't get over
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  Speaker 3: the last couple of years was a recession.
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  Speaker 2: Other things that this group of economists are predicting. When
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  Speaker 2: it comes to inflation, they think that core PCE so
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  Speaker 2: not including you know, gas prices and food prices, just
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  Speaker 2: because you can't really predict those, I mean, really like
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  Speaker 2: any kind of price you can't predict like too well.
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  Speaker 4: But obviously gas prices.
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  Speaker 2: You know, there's a huge range of outcomes depending on
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  Speaker 2: you know, geopolitics and this and that. But core PCE
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  Speaker 2: this survey says that they now think that that measure
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  Speaker 2: is going to run at three and a half percent
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  Speaker 2: for the year. The high end estimate is from a
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  Speaker 2: firm called the Economic I'm sorry, ac Cuts and Associates.
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  Speaker 4: They think that.
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  Speaker 2: You're actually gonna see core PCEE somewhere in the four
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  Speaker 2: and a half range this year, rising to almost six
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  Speaker 2: percent by next year. On the low end, you have
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  Speaker 2: some economists that are saying, hey, core inflation is still
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  Speaker 2: going to be two percent this year and maybe even
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  Speaker 2: lower next year. So I think the there's no one
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  Speaker 2: like consistent message there. But on average economists saying, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: we think there's gonna be a little bit hotter inflation
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  Speaker 2: this year and then it cools back down next year.
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  Speaker 2: So they're very much on the transitory side of things
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  Speaker 2: when it comes to any inflation that we do see
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  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five.
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  Speaker 3: How do you think this? I know you guys got
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  Speaker 3: the retail sales report yesterday at eight thirty, and I'm
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  Speaker 3: sure discussed on the show. In that report, we saw
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  Speaker 3: the massive bump up in auto sales that we had
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  Speaker 3: been forecasting given tariff threats. We saw that in other
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  Speaker 3: areas too, But how do you think that ties into
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  Speaker 3: that narrative of recession because one other item that and
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  Speaker 3: I know I shouldn't cherry pick data points here, but
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  Speaker 3: you did see pretty robust bounce back and spending in
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  Speaker 3: restaurants and bars in the month of March compared to
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  Speaker 3: the last two And that's not an that's not exactly
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  Speaker 3: a front run the tariff story when you talk about
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  Speaker 3: people go into the bar.
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  Speaker 4: No.
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  Speaker 2: I think we talked about how the February of retail
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  Speaker 2: sales numbers were probably skewed down by weather, and so
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  Speaker 2: you expected a little bit of a bump anyways, Sure,
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  Speaker 2: not just weather, but everyone being sick in February. I
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  Speaker 2: mean it was like brutal. I think I had three
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  Speaker 2: days out of the month that I wasn't sick with something.
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  Speaker 2: I think the view that I had and still continue
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  Speaker 2: to have, it was a fine month.
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  Speaker 4: It was all before the tariff announcement.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so the first the first announcement of tariffs was
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  Speaker 3: April second, And I think that's really important to keep
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  Speaker 3: in mind because we'll lose sight of that date here
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  Speaker 3: as time goes on. But April two was the announcement
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  Speaker 3: of the reciprocal tariffs that surprised everyone. It surprised everyone,
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  Speaker 3: don't you know. Don't let anybody tell you they knew
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  Speaker 3: that Vietnam was going to be facing fifty percent teriffs. No,
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  Speaker 3: nobody had any idea that they were going to be
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  Speaker 3: as significant as they were. And so did the behavior
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  Speaker 3: change post April second is the multi trillion dollar question.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think even there it still is something
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  Speaker 2: where like you talk to anyone who works at a
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  Speaker 2: car dealer right now and they're telling you, man, we're cranking.
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  Speaker 3: Sure.
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  Speaker 2: You know there's because I was telling Tucker yesterday, I
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  Speaker 2: was driving in and I heard three different advertisements mentioning
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  Speaker 2: that they had tear free cars on their lot. So
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  Speaker 2: you're seeing activity on that side of things.
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  Speaker 3: I front ran tariffs on some stone that I had
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  Speaker 3: to purchase for a home project that we're doing. Oh yes,
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  Speaker 3: it was Chinese imported stuff. And I said, call around
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  Speaker 3: and get that stuff onto my property as soon as possible,
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  Speaker 3: because I don't want to. I probably wouldn't face a tariff.
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  Speaker 3: I'd probably face a shortage is what I was concerned about.
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  Speaker 2: Bed Yeah, yeah, yet yeah, rock beds are very popular
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  Speaker 2: these days.
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  Speaker 4: Uh so yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I think in order to figure out kind of what
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  Speaker 2: the new trend looks like, it's gonna take a few months.
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  Speaker 2: It's it's gonna take a few months, and it's gonna
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  Speaker 2: be all kinds of distorted in terms of what we're seeing.
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  Speaker 4: I think it's it's not going to be uniform.
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  Speaker 2: It's gonna be stuff all over the place where it's
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  Speaker 2: you know, auto sales are through the roof, but home
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  Speaker 2: and garden stuff is in the toilet, and electronic sales
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  Speaker 2: are moving up, but uh, you know, restaurant sales are down.
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  Speaker 2: Like you're gonna see all kinds of weird stuff. I
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  Speaker 2: don't know what the story is gonna be, but I
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  Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna be consistent across all areas.
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  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 2: What I can tell you is, like you're in terms
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  Speaker 2: of what we're seeing from banks, they're not indicating a
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  Speaker 2: huge shift in consumer spend in most areas right now.
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  Speaker 2: The one place that they are picking it up is
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  Speaker 2: travel right consistently, the one thing that we're seeing, whether
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  Speaker 2: you're talking big banks, American Express reported their earnings this morning,
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  Speaker 2: you are consistently hearing travel spend is is not keeping
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  Speaker 2: up with everything else, and so that's something to watch.
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  Speaker 2: But it's it's notable just because you know the travel
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  Speaker 2: and lesion hospitality area. It is a you know, meaningful
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  Speaker 2: part of a number of economies in the United States.
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  Speaker 2: In the New England area where our show is based, obviously,
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  Speaker 2: you talk about, you know, any of the coast, whether
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  Speaker 2: it's Maine, the Cape, you talk about any of the
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  Speaker 2: lakes areas, New Hampshire also up into Maine. Like these
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  Speaker 2: are areas that rely heavily on tourism. A lot of
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  Speaker 2: it is you know, driving from people within the region.
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  Speaker 2: But talk to anyone who runs a you know, hotel
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  Speaker 2: on the main coast and they'll tell you, look, we
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  Speaker 2: get a lot of people that fly in from Canada
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  Speaker 2: that you know end up being you know, a major
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  Speaker 2: part of our summer. You know expectations, and so you've
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  Speaker 2: you've got some things that you have to you know,
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  Speaker 2: watch and see how.
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  Speaker 4: They have the economy. But I don't think we're gonna
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  Speaker 4: know much for.
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  Speaker 2: A couple months unless look some of the high frequency
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  Speaker 2: indicators that you start that you get if you start seeing,
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  Speaker 2: you know, a meaningful trend developing and unemployment claims.
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  Speaker 4: Okay, maybe you can start say.
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  Speaker 2: Some things in May, but honestly, it's gonna be like
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  Speaker 2: I've said this for you know, I've been consistent on this,
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  Speaker 2: fourth of July is when we're gonna start really getting
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  Speaker 2: a sense of what the post tariff economy looks like.
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  Speaker 2: I know that's disappointing to people who like want it now,
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  Speaker 2: but takes a little bit of time to sort through
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  Speaker 2: all this stuff.
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  Speaker 1: Tara Fleeby's in high gear. We've got the latest on
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: what might be next and how long it might last.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Only here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial
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  Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: Mike, we got a piece in Baron's Today. It's titled
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: The Trade Wars. Here, retirees, it's time to protect your portfolio.
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  Speaker 2: What does it out line and does it make sense?
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  Speaker 3: It outlines a bunch of really specific items to consider,
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  Speaker 3: which I found quite surprising. For instance, they interview an
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  Speaker 3: investment officer in Northville, Michigan, who you know, speaks specifically
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  Speaker 3: to diversifying with alternatives and using that as a key
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  Speaker 3: part of the plan. Speaks to abandoning the sixty forty
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  Speaker 3: portfolio as part of all of this. I'm surprised. Usually
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: when you have pieces like this one from any financial
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  Speaker 3: media outlet, it is more general in nature and you
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  Speaker 3: know more about controlling the emotions. This one speaks specifically
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  Speaker 3: to making big changes to long held investment allocations. And
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  Speaker 3: I have a tough time saying that anybody should go
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  Speaker 3: there based on what we know today.
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  Speaker 4: How come?
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  Speaker 3: Because I think ninety percent of people don't have enough
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: information to make that decision on their own.
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  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 3: It preassumes that you are in the wrong portfolio to
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: begin with. It pre assumes that you know what might
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: be happening next, and that can be a really dangerous game.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Just the idea of, oh, yeah, I'm going to abandon
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  Speaker 3: stocks for alternatives because an investment manager out of Northfield,
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  Speaker 3: Michigan said that he does it for his clients. Wow,
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: that can mean a lot of different things to every
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: person listening. And so I'm not saying people should just
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  Speaker 3: completely ignore the threat of tariffs on the economy, but
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  Speaker 3: it more has to do with look, the threat of
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  Speaker 3: a recession is almost always out there as a possibility,
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  Speaker 3: albeit sometimes it's a lot lower than others. But if
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: you just go about your portfolio assuming that there can
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: never be one, you can get in some really tough times,
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: especially if you're approaching the need to use that money.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: But that's where I go back to is if you
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  Speaker 3: are planning to use these funds in some meaningful way
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: in the not so distant future and you haven't thought
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: about I mean, look at O eight as an example here, right,
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: how long did it take for stocks to regain their value?
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  Speaker 3: About five years? Yeah, so put yourself in those shoes, right,
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  Speaker 3: I'm about to retire. Could I be faced with a
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  Speaker 3: recession where the stock market takes five years to recover?
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  Speaker 4: Yes? You could?
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  Speaker 3: Am I prepared for that? That's the question that I
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: asked myself.
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  Speaker 2: The other one that I think is, you know, think
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  Speaker 2: about this from a concentration risk perspective, and again like
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  Speaker 2: who knows where any of this sends up? But you
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: mentioned the SP five hundred and how long it took
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: to come back from the financial crisis.
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  Speaker 4: Yep. What about the Nasdaq in the dot com bubble? Right?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, if you talk about yours. You talk about
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  Speaker 2: where a lot of people have piled into. Yeah, the
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  Speaker 2: Nasdaq was a fifteen year period before you got back
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: above water, from mid two thousand to mid twenty fifteen.
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  Speaker 2: And it's not to say that that's what you're gonna
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: see the NASDAC go through right now, but there are
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: a lot of people that have, you know, maybe piled
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: into some of those stocks because of the hope and
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: optimism around them, and they've basically been dead money for
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  Speaker 2: the last year and you never know where they're going
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: to go in the future. So it's another you know,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: potential lesson of Hey, diversification, Yes, like being not diversified.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: Feels great on the way up. Haha, I'm making money,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: This is great. It doesn't feel so good on the
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: way down. And you never know when that way down
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: is going to come, when something unexpected happens.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: If you are sitting in this position, you're worried about
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: concentration rescure, you're just not having those conversations. Don't stick
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: your head in the sand. Oftentimes the lesson can be
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: do nothing, but do nothing can also mean educate yourself
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: so that you have enough information to do nothing. If
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: you would like that consultation. If you would like that
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: second opinion on your portfolio, call Armstrong Advisory Group at
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one. That
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: number again, eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Taking a as stocks as we head towards the bottom
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: of the hour, Dow is still off about four hundred
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: and eighty four points about one and a quarter percent.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: The SMP is down thirteen point I'm sorry, up thirteen
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: points about a quarter percent, and the NASDAC down thirty
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: eight points about a quarter percent. So again, very strange
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: mixed markets that are happening today. The tenure Treasury not
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: too much movement. There's still up two point five basis
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: points to four point three zero four percent, so pretty
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: stable when it comes to yields at this point. The
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: interesting thing about the tenure right now, for all of
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: the hype in hullabaloo from the last week or so.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: It's pretty much back in the range that was trading
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: in for most of March, you know, right in that
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: four point three percent range. Despite moving you know, down
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: to about four percent and up to four five it's
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: kind of back to where it was before. So just
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: kind of waiting for what that next move maybe in
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: the economy quick break here when we come back, we're
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: joined by Corey Adams from Robert Half right after.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: This, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
• 18:32
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• 18:37
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• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: Joining us now is Corey Adams from staffing firm Robert
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: haf to talk to us about artificial intelligence and Corey,
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: I feel as though many of your previous surveys we've
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: alluded to it or asked questions about how I might
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: be affecting the workforce. This seems to be the first
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: one I've seen from you guys directly asking employees and
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: managers questions about their use of artificial intelligence. So thanks
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: for coming on, thanks for doing.
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: This, thanks for having me.
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: It's good to be with you.
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: So talk to me about how employees seem to be
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: using AI in their day today. Are they confident in
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: doing so, and what are they running into so far?
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: Sure, I mean, listen, this is still relatively new, but
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: in recent years many organizations and companies have introduced AI
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: technology into their teams, into the businesses.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: And the reality is.
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: We're at a point where workers are just a little
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: bit more comfortable than they have been. They've warmed up
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: to the idea that using it within their day to
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: day responsibilities makes a lot of sense. And you know,
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: I think there's a bit of a shift to people
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: get scared at first if you don't understand or know something.
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: But it feels like workers right now are a little
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: bit more open minded about the opportunities that AI itself presents,
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: the understand it's capabilities, and they're also starting to figure
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: out how it fits within their daily lives and also
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: within their job So we all know there's a great
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: deal of optimism around the potential for artificial intelligence, but
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: you know, it's still early, right, so there's a lot
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: of room for error, and as we've been told, you know,
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: AI can't necessarily replace the overall trustworthiness of the human expertise.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to dive in there a little bit,
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: because we spent a lot of time on this program
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: calling out just nonsense stuff that we find when utilizing
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: artificial intelligence in different areas, and you know, the hallucinations
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: that can make it seems very very hesitant to provide
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: an answer of I don't know, which is a huge downside.
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: How are managers kind of navigating that in terms of
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: how they use it and where they use it? It
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: seems like it could be a real potential problem depending
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: on the industry in the space.
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: Sure, well, there's a few ways to look at it.
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: I just think first in terms of how man can
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: probably first and foremost maintain a healthy and productive workplace
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: while still adoptings. A few things that managers need to consider,
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: so they probably need to be strategic in their approach.
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: So they need to determine, you know, what areas organization
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: can actually benefit from the use of AI. You know,
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: there's no need to rush in to implement a technology
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: that might not fit their business or their team needs.
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: The second one I would say, and we've talked about
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: this a ton over the years and all facets of business,
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: but managers should be transparent. So workers are currently feeling
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: pressure to adopt technologies, then they worry about their job security.
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: So guidelines need to be clear, and dialogue needs to
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: be open between the manager and the employee itself. And
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: then sort of the third thing that we're finding is
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: that managers need to be proactive, which means that training
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: and upskilling needs to happen from the very beginning and
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: from the start so for AI to help automate routine tasks.
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: And you know, workers just in general need to be
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: more comfortable and confident. And let's just go a little
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: bit further with that. You know, there's a reality where
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: in order to be comfortable and proficient in something, it
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: probably needs to exist in two worlds, within the workforce
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: but also within your day to day life. And so
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: I think the first step is people getting comfortable and
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: many have and using it within their own personal life.
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: And you know, in really speaking, I have friends that
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: use it from making workouts. I have a colleague who's
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: leaving literally going on a trip tomorrow, and the entire
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: agenda for her vacation is built from AI. So there's
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: a number of ways it can be used, but you
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: need to learn it at the most core fundamental levels
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: and that needs to sort of carry over into your workforce.
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: But it really starts with managers and making sure they
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: understand the power of it and how it should be
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: utilized and implemented appropriately.
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: I see how this has changed in just the course
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: of the last twelve months for somebody that maybe has
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: been laid off and out of the workforce for a year,
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: maybe they've been on leave or just as graduating college.
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: What sort of expectation and pressure is there on the
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: workforce today to adapt the technology and be prepared to
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: use it in that new white collar job today.
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: Sure, so there's pressure and then there's also fear, and
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: they sort of coexist, but they're also somewhat separate. So
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: our research goes on to show us and tell us
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: that workers have told us that despite a high pressure
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: of feeling confident in their AI skills and capability, nearly
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: a third of all respondents actually went on to say
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: that they have felt pressure when it comes to actually
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: adopting AI in their current role. Another two thirds are
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: actually feeling pressure from the industry and the need to
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: be competitive and technically relevant, and then almost half of
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: respondents are feeling more and more pressure from their leaders,
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: from their management. So you're basically getting hit, the average
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: of workers getting hit in terms of pressure between their industry,
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: their job, their co workers, their leaders. So there's tons
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: of pressure. But here's the other side of this, And
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: I'm sure you guys have talked about this, in fact,
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: I know you have. You know their idea is as
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: much as people fear AI, a little bit future of it,
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: and we know the few research came out and I
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: think almost a third of all workers truly do believe
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: that AI is going to basically lead to fewer opportunities
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: down the road. But at the end of the day,
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: AI is literally transforming in the workplace in a number
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: of different ways. But as we've seen, you know, while
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: this is all happening in this whole reshaping, worker disbursement
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: has historically been offset by new roles in no industries
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: and by the way probably creating new positions that we
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: have yet to even think about. So as technology is
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: new and we embrace it, there's that natural reaction of fear.
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: But you know, It's understood why it's there, but I
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: don't think it's necessary.
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: Corey Adams from Robert Half join us to talk about
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: their most recent survey on AI in the workforce. Corey,
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it and look
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: forward to chatting again soon.
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: Sounds good.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: Thanks Mike.
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: Mike, you want to talk about salt.
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go salt. I'm feeling little bit salty today.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: You're more of a salt guy or a pepper guy personally.
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: That's a preposterous question, Chuck, Well, which is it? You
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: can't have like certain foods without salt. It's a it's
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: a baseline for it's true.
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: It's true.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: They're they're not They're not equal.
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: You don't have always got salt.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: I got all sorts of salt. I got truffle, salt,
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: flake salt.
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: You don't have wonder.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: I gotta be honest, Himalayan Like in the context of
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: this conversation, see totally get why salt is on every
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: table in America? Why pepper and not other spices?
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, pepper, I don't know, just doesn't you know
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: what they belong there? The same size shaker as the salt, Like.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Why why are oregano in chili flakes relegated just to
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: pizza places.
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: It's a fantastic question, Chuck.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: You know, how come no, how can we don't walk
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: into a restaurant and it's like, oh good, the times
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: on the table?
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: I do.
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: Let me think about that for a moment. Like, certainly,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: when you go into a restaurant in India, you don't
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: have a salt and pepper shaker on the table. But
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: that's why I said, in America, Yeah, yeah.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: You know you're at a good restaurant where there's no
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: salt and pepper on the table.
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they've they've seizoned everything the way it's supposed to
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: be correct.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just saying it's you know, I think about
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: these things.
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: You know, why why pepper?
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Why not paprika which also comes from a different kind
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: of pepper that anyways, pepper.
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: Lobby has been very successful.
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you gotta watch out for big pepper. A thing.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about the state and local
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: tax deduction, which is why we've talked about salt is
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: the acronym is salt and back during twenty seventeen, when
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: during President Trump's first term, when they passed the Tax
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: Cuts and Jobs Act. One of the things that did
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: was it limited the state and local tax deduction to
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: ten thousand dollars. Previously it had been unlimited, I believe,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: is that correct?
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: So the question is what happens to these date and
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: local tax deduction as the as Congress and the President
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: try to pass a new tax bill this year. And
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: the key thing is that I'll quote here from Bloomberg,
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: six House Republicans Mike Lawler, Nickeloda, Nicole Maliatakis, and Andrew
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: Gabarino of New York, as well as New Jersey's Tom
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Keen Junior in California as Young Kim have vowed to
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: oppose any bill that doesn't sufficiently raise the salt cap,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: and that a proposal to raise it to twenty five
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars falls short. Lawler himself has introduced a bill
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: to raise it to one hundred thousand. So, obviously, with
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Republican majority, the Republican majority in the House being a
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: handful of seats, you can't lose all six of these votes.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: So it raises an interesting question as to what are
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: you going to get here. But beyond that, the other
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: one that's fascinating, is Okay? When you talk about the
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: percentage of taxpayers that itemize and have enough state and
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: local taxes in order to you know, deduct above and beyond,
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: it's a really small fraction of taxpayers. Only about ten
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: percent of taxpayers who itemize are even eligible to claim salt,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: and obviously not all of them necessarily make incomes that high.
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: So it's kind of.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Like you're you're talking about a really small percentage of
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: taxpayers that are gonna end up benefiting h if the
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: salt cap is raised.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: But the butt they fund all the campaigns in the
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: highest tax states in the country.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Correct, And so I'm again that's why this potentially makes
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: it in some kind of you know, raise to the
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: salt cap, but we don't know what framework it's gonna
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: take yet, and it would benefit a rather small subset
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: of people, the vast majority of them California, New England,
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: and New York YEP.
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: So there's that. Let's take a quick break here. When
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: we come back, we'll do a little bit of stack root.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Let the global trade warriors in full swing. Long will
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: it last? Is anyone's gas? Keep it here for the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: most up to date information plus breaking news every day
• 29:06
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• 29:11
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• 29:13
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• 29:17
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• 29:20
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• 29:28
  Speaker 4: Mike, what do you got for me for stack roulettes?
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: American wine makers, who I would have thought might benefit
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: from tariff, especially on imported European wine, making their products
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: look more comparable and more competitive, are actually not so optimistic.
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: And a few things about this when it comes to
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: the global supply chain that matter. One sixty percent of
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: the world's cork comes from Portugal, followed by Spain, which
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: makes twenty so eighty percent of the world's cork come
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: from Portugal and Spain. Other products the winemaking supply chain
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: come from China, and generally speaking, you know, whether you're
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: aging your wine in a French oak barrel. There's just
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: a big global supply chain for everything involved in making wine.
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: And so in spite of potentially higher prices on French
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: wine and champagne at the grocery store, American winemakers don't
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: actually seem all that excited about the opportunity from the
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: interviews that we're done in Bloomberg, NPR, oh NPR and PR.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: So American winemaker is not all that enthused about it.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: I think, quite honestly, winemakers across the globe face a
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: bigger threat than terras, which is a shifting consumer that
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: seems far less interested in wine today than they did
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: a few decades ago. And we see that repeated over
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: and over that, Yeah, global demand for wine and for
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: alcohol generally, but for wine especially has been on the
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: down trend for quite some time now and is not.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: It did not bump back up once them Niels hit
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: a certain age as many expected it to.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Red Robin is giving a They've announced that they are
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: launching their Bottomless Burger Pass.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: That seems like a bad idea.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, not so fast. For twenty dollars,
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: customers who purchase the pass will receive a black and
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: gold card in the mail that earns them to write
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: to a burger and bottomless side of fries every day
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: for the month of May, which is National Burger Month.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: The passes go on sale today at nine am, and
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: a limited quantity are available.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: Did they learn nothing from Red Lobster.
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: Well, here's the thing.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: I clicked the link in the piece, I got an
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: internal server error, which means that, wow, it looks like
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: let me see if.
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: The whole line off the shelves. Let's see yep, gateway
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: time out. They it's either that particular website is crashed
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: or they're trying to take on that page because they
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: already sold them all.
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, okayt wait, time out.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: I'm on it too.
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: Are there any Red Robins around these parts?
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Foxborough, this one, there's one down by me, and
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: this time here there's plenty plum a good one. Yeah, thanks,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: don't worry about it. So, yeah, apparently that is two
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: and a half hours after going on sale, they're all gone.
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: Well honestly, that's a good maybe because uh, you know,
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: Red Lobster attempted all this with their endless shrimp deal
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: out of business. So if there's one thing I know
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: about Americans, we like burgers more than shrimp, and this
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: this might be the end of Red Robin if they
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: give too many of these away. Costco is finally making
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: signature beer. During a recent Costco run, a number of
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: people realize that, yeah, the the Kirkland signature style lagger,
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: which was obviously not brewed by Costco themselves has been
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: on sale. Now, I don't maybe I'm wrong about the
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: Osco you know, uh fanatics out there, because I hear
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: of the wine that people get obsessed with. I have
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: a my wife's uncle who just you know, that's the
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: only brand of tequila. He drinks his Kirkland signature tequila.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: So I know there are plenty of people that have
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: a following here. But I just feel as though there's
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: so much variety in the beer market today that I
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: don't know that Kirkland style logger ends up making a
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: huge dent there.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: What do you mean?
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: He just what's the price point for it? Is like
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: that there's two things fourteen bucks for a twelve pack.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: There's two things that matter. Number one, it's there. Number two,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: it's cheap, and it's beer.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: I think they're gonna sell plenty of this. Yeah, so,
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: oh yeah, it's gonna be popular with college I.
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: Just I guess I just misunderstand the the Costco customer.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: It is cheap, though, fourteen bucks for a twelve pack.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: It's it's funny that we say that's cheap. I still remember,
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: oh yeah, thirty pack exactly. Well, I know it's back
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: in my day. I'm going there. I mean, look, it
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: was twenty years ago now, like it's I get it.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but that was Jenny's cream Ale.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: Come on, no, it was a Keystone Light red Dog
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Bush only the only the finest. So uh yeah, that's
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: what's going on with Costco and beer. Uh let's see
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: what else do I want to talk about? Netflix? They
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: report earnings after the bell.
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: Today and.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Again just like kind of wild that Netflix is sitting
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: there today.
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Market cap is four hundred and fifteen billion dollars, which
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: is by far and away the most valuable media company. Yep,
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: Like I'm trying to think of anything else that What
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: do you think is probably like second on.
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: The list comcat at Disney, which only kind of counts.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, because like they're not even like a pure play
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: media company.
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: They're they're only one hundred and fifty three billion dollar company.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Right, you know you look at you know, Comcast and
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: the they are just as a man in comparison you
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: twenty eight billion yeah Apple, No.
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: No, why they have their own content.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: Doesn't matter count them. But they're not a media company
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: like you think of you think of Disney.
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: Are they losing like a billion dollars a year's details.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: But Disney, other than their parks, is a media company.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Probably the closest. But in any case, so Netflix. The
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: thing that's just wild here is, you know, back when
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Netflix was expanding like crazy, it was okay, like we're
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: we're gonna struggle to be profitable, like who knows if
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: we will be blah blah blah, and everyone else saw that.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: The share price that Netflix was trading at was like, oh,
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: we got to get into that space streaming, like that's
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: where it's gonna be. And now no one else can
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: figure out how to make money streaming, and Netflix is
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: sitting there going, yeah, we got twenty six percent profit margins. Yeah,
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: we're you know, putting out a million different things a year.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: At this point, we're all good. We're just we're just cranking. Oh,
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: cost a going up, fine, raise the prices people will
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: pay them. It's kind of remarkable what they've done printing money.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take a quick break for the next twenty
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: four hours, but we are gonna be back on tomorrow.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: I know it's good Friday, We'll still be doing our show,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: So make sure you tune in. Have a great rest
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: of the day, and we'll see you tomorrow