Latest / UK Column Radio / Western Moral Collapse: Epstein Files, Jimmy Lai, & Japan’s Trap | Dr. Warwick Powell | Silk & Steel

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Western Moral Collapse: Epstein Files, Jimmy Lai, & Japan’s Trap | Dr. Warwick Powell | Silk & Steel · UK Column Radio

0:02
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and Steel
0:05
podcast. I'm your host, Carl Zah.
0:07
Today I have back on our show Doctor Warwick Powell from
0:12
Australia. First, first of all, welcome
0:17
back Warwick, and it's always a pleasure to have you on the
0:21
show. You always have very interesting
0:24
insight to offer. What do you have for us today?
0:30
Well, last time we caught up, I said that I felt like I'd aged a
0:35
year in the space of what, a month, right?
0:39
This last fortnight has probably been in some ways a little bit
0:42
quieter, but there've been some very interesting things which
0:45
probably speak a little bit to look, I think actually the
0:50
fragile state of Western self esteem.
0:54
So we've had in Hong Kong the sentencing of Jimmy Lai and that
1:01
has provoked this tidal wave in the last, you know, last day or
1:07
so since his sentencing of Western social media from all of
1:12
the usual suspects, mainly Western politicians and, you
1:18
know, assorted think tanks and NGOs talking about how, you
1:25
know, this is a freedom fighter, an advocate for democracy being
1:31
being gaoled for for, for exercising freedom of speech to
1:36
a point where I think some have even said that, that that a
1:42
British subject, a British citizen is being, you know,
1:45
gaoled for life and is being sentenced to death.
1:48
And of course, amongst the tidal wave of propaganda responses,
1:57
the actual issues have probably become a little bit lost the
2:01
whole point of propaganda. But it's probably worth
2:05
revisiting the issues a little bit because I think it actually
2:08
says something about the state of Western self esteem.
2:13
So Jimmy Lai was, and we know this because there's plenty of
2:17
public evidence and you know, 1000 days in court or, you know,
2:22
600 days or whatever it was, right?
2:23
Mountains of evidence that actually shows that he was
2:27
extremely close to people who were paid by the three letter
2:32
agencies and was an actual advocate for American military
2:37
intervention. So and his second.
2:40
In command, his second in command, Mark Simon literally
2:44
come from ACIA family. I mean, this is well
2:47
established, yeah. So, so I don't think that
2:51
there's actually any secret that Jimmy Lai was part of an
2:56
American destabilisation slash regime change frontline
3:02
operation and he was charged ultimately with sedition and for
3:07
collusion with foreign powers. Now, I don't know whether it was
3:12
collusion or not, because collusion kind of implies that
3:15
it was done in secret. But when you're actually on a
3:17
global stage calling for America to launch nuclear weapons on
3:22
China, it I'm not sure that that's collusion, right?
3:26
It's certainly not the secret type of type of collusion.
3:30
But he was charged on the national security laws.
3:33
Now, those national security laws were, of course, the
3:35
subject of much controversy. And, you know, the Western press
3:39
will talk about them as being pernicious and this and that.
3:42
But of course, they're by and large mirrored on national
3:45
security laws that you find in just about every other country
3:48
in the world. And the other point to remember
3:52
is that the national security laws passed by Hong Kong was
3:57
actually part and parcel of the original agreement, right with
4:01
the British that they would be national security laws.
4:05
And so the implication these days is that somehow what
4:10
mainland China is doing runs contrary to the the agreements
4:15
in the original handover. It's actually nonsense.
4:19
There was always a requirement for national security laws to be
4:22
passed. There was an attempt to do so in
4:25
the early 2000s, and it failed in the face of orchestrated
4:30
public protest. Eventually they've succeeded.
4:34
So Jimmy Lai gets charged. He's found guilty.
4:36
Pretty hard to not find him guilty, frankly, given all of
4:40
the publicly available evidence on top of the evidence that was
4:43
presented in the court. And he was sentenced to 20
4:47
years. The West has gone absolutely
4:49
apoplectic about this. Right?
4:51
But it's got nothing to do with free speech.
4:53
And, and, and, but I think it's very interesting because it's
4:57
happened at a time where there's two other things that really
5:00
brings into question the status of the West, broadly speaking,
5:06
in terms of all of these sorts of, you know, moral questions.
5:10
The first one is, is the, the, the actions of the of, of ice in
5:17
the United States and what's been going on there.
5:20
There's probably three things actually.
5:22
The second one is, is the responses, particularly in the
5:25
last few days in Australia as a result of the visit to
5:29
Australia, of the Israeli president, and how there has
5:33
been a significant police action to clamp down on protesters and
5:39
to seek to silence those who oppose the visit by the Israeli
5:44
president to Australia. And the third one, the big one
5:49
is the release of the Epstein files, right?
5:52
So all of these things are going on in the backdrop and we have
5:57
this concerted social media propaganda effort to try to
6:03
distract everybody and make people think that the big issue
6:06
of the day is Jimmy Lai. I I don't think.
6:11
I I don't, yeah, I don't think that's successful, by the way.
6:14
I mean, most of the people in the West, outside of the bubble
6:17
of politicians and media found it.
6:20
Nobody know who's Jimmy Lai is and nobody cares.
6:23
And, and this is not a issue that simply average Americans or
6:28
average British people care about.
6:31
They're like, who the heck is Jimmy Lai?
6:33
And exactly. And the Jimmy Lai, the way they
6:37
describe Jimmy Light in Wall Street Journal, Wall Street
6:39
Journal called Jimmy Light the the Rupert Murdoch of Asia,
6:44
right? Why would average Joe Pack 6
6:48
pack from Michigan care about the Rupert Murdoch of Asia?
6:53
And and and and and Jimmy Light, The interesting thing, another
6:56
thing interesting thing about Jimmy Light is, you know, he's a
6:58
media tycoon. He also, he owns a Apple Daily,
7:02
a media empire, but for the last several years leading up to the
7:09
Hong Kong protest, the Apple, his his group, the Apple Media
7:13
Group has been bleeding money. Yet somehow Jimmy Lai was able
7:18
to funnel a lot of money. I mean, everybody know he was
7:22
the financial backer of the Hong Kong Pro AKA Hong Kong protest
7:26
or AKA I would call Hong Kong Riot.
7:29
He is the main money money backer.
7:31
So the question would be where did he get that money?
7:34
You know, because because we know his media empire has been
7:37
bleeding money because advertiser has been avoiding
7:40
wording it after he, you know, went down really publicly anti
7:45
China rent and and, and, and, and, you know, there's a lot of
7:49
questions to be asked. Also his relationship with Mark
7:51
Simon, who again is very publicly his is #2 right hand
7:56
man who come from a very pedigreed CIA family background.
8:02
And, and, and, and, and, and the whole 2019.
8:05
I think looking back now from 2026, it's very obvious whatever
8:11
the 2019 Hong Kong for so called Hong Kong protest was a
8:15
orchestrated colour revolution that that failed, that failed.
8:19
I mean, but I think the reason why all these Western
8:24
intelligence agency decide to blow their Watt, so to speak,
8:29
because Hong Kong was the forefront of the Cold War.
8:32
You know, you was like the, the, the, the, the, the cloak and
8:36
dagger place during the Cold War.
8:38
There's a lot of, you know, Western intelligence agency have
8:42
their, their hands in there. You know, whether it's MI 6 or
8:45
CIA and and the the the reason they decide to blow their Watt
8:50
in 2019, I think also was to impact then the Taiwan election,
8:57
you know, that actually got Taiwan re elected, you know, by
9:01
by so Taiwan was able to play the the the the scaremongering
9:06
tactic during her re election. See, see what happened in Hong
9:09
Kong. This is what happens if you go
9:11
along with China's one country 2 system.
9:14
That that that that ploy worked. That got tying it when the
9:18
second term. Well, and, and you've seen go
9:20
ahead and you've seen, of course, in the last couple of
9:22
days or the last day or so that Lai Tinga Tai, England's
9:26
successor, has jumped onto the bandwagon as well, right?
9:29
I mean, he's in a desperate position.
9:32
He's his, his public standing is, you know, nothing short of
9:39
week. He actually became the leader of
9:43
the Taiwan province on the back of a minority vote, right?
9:48
So he gained 40% or so of the vote.
9:52
Opposition split. He came through the middle.
9:55
But he's never established a particularly strong mandate of
9:59
any sort at all. And I don't think it's helped
10:01
him when he spent, you know, some months essentially carrying
10:05
favour with both Israel directly, but also trying to
10:11
through cultivating and currying favour with the Israeli lobby,
10:16
AIPAC, visiting Taipei, amongst other things.
10:19
I'm trying to use that as a way of currying favour in Washington
10:22
as well. And all that tells you, I think
10:24
is there's a political desperation and a narrowing of
10:27
the base. Even the latest issues on the
10:31
island, you know, with the American approvals to sell those
10:35
additional arms, they're not getting it through the budget in
10:39
Taipei itself, right? So, so they're facing all sorts
10:43
of problems with even being able to mobilise the island
10:47
population through its political arm to go down this pathway.
10:51
And, and it's looking like an increasingly desperate and
10:55
humiliating outcome, frankly. And, and you know,
10:59
unsurprisingly, he's also jumped onto the the Takahichi bandwagon
11:04
after her resounding win in the Japan elections.
11:07
But I just want to touch on the Epstein stuff, right?
11:10
Because the Epstein backdrop actually exposes the absolute
11:17
moral bankruptcy of the collective West.
11:21
So whenever the collective W at the moment points its finger at
11:26
anyone about, you know, free speech, democracy, all things,
11:32
you know, good and nice that supposedly someone else is
11:36
violating, you know, some human right here or there, it's
11:42
another day that the United States and its transatlantic
11:47
allies and subordinate partners is ignoring the elephant in the
11:51
room. And the elephant in the room
11:54
isn't just the protection of a, a, a whole cast of pederist, but
12:03
it's the, the, the, the proof positive that not only do we
12:07
have a cast of people who behave like absolute heinous,
12:15
debaucherous animals, but they come from the political class
12:19
itself. You know, the highest echelons
12:23
of the political and commercial elite are wrapped up in this
12:29
absolute scandal. And every day that the elite and
12:35
then media handlers and others try to spin a story about
12:39
something else in the world is another day that they are
12:41
avoiding responsibility for what frankly is the greatest moral
12:47
test that America and the collective West are likely to
12:51
face this side of the 2020 first century.
12:54
And. And until they confront that and
12:57
come clean on it and recognise the environment that actually
13:01
made it possible for this sort of stuff to happen day in, day
13:06
out, under their very nose, in fact on their very watch, with a
13:10
bunch of their own deeply involved and implicated in it.
13:15
Until they come to terms with that and come clean on it and
13:19
recognise what it is, they've got no standing to point their
13:23
fingers at anyone, anywhere in the world about anything.
13:28
So now that I've got that off my chest, we might move on.
13:35
Well, I like to point out nobody has been charged, you know,
13:38
other than Epstein, other than next Epstein and and Maxwell
13:43
Maxwell, nobody else has been charged you even though we have
13:48
the the Epstein file, we have all the data dump.
13:51
We know, you know, a lot of people who is in it, who's in on
13:56
it? And and yet nobody, nobody's
13:58
getting charged, you know, and this is this is just a it's
14:02
almost like the political elite of the West expect us to accept
14:08
it. You know, like that's kind of
14:10
the political. It's like a imposed political
14:14
helplessness. Like you, you know what we're
14:17
we're about. And and we also know you,
14:20
there's nothing you can do to change it.
14:22
And look but but even it given, go ahead, go.
14:26
Ahead, I was just going to say, you know how desperate it gets
14:29
when they resort to the it's Russia's fault, right?
14:34
So Epstein is actually a Russian spy now, right?
14:38
A Russian spy who incidentally couldn't get himself a visa to
14:42
Russia to a point where Mandelson actually offered the
14:46
help. So, but this is how desperate it
14:49
gets. And this is what I mean by the
14:51
sort of moral bankruptcy and the self esteem crisis that the West
14:57
is actually exposed itself to. Now, many people from outside
15:01
the West and even people, critics from inside the West
15:05
understood this, but that you could never get it out there in
15:10
the way that that has become out there.
15:13
You know, I remember and, and I mean interestingly in your view
15:16
on this, because you've spent a lot more time in the US than I,
15:18
but you know, MAGA, the MAGA base, one of the issues that
15:24
they actually mobilised around in 2024 was the release of these
15:29
files. And then for reasons that I
15:31
still find difficult to fathom, Trump then spent the best part
15:35
of 2025 either refusing to release them not an issue or
15:40
pretending that they were a fake Democrat Party fake or that
15:43
there was nothing to hide. And don't you worry about it.
15:46
But for whatever reasons, there was an attempt to sweep it all
15:50
under the carpet. And, and at some point, all of
15:53
these issues must start to peel away at the mega base.
15:58
Not in whole because there's obviously rusted on true
16:01
believers. They'll, they'll go with the
16:03
flow and believe anything and everything.
16:05
But there must be a, a, a, a solid cohort of people who must
16:11
feel incredibly let down by this entire episode.
16:16
It confirms for them, of course, all of their worst imagine
16:22
possibilities, right? But the fact that it's out there
16:27
now with all the redactions and we're still millions of pages
16:31
unreleased, so people know that it's even worse.
16:34
It's deeper and wider than we even know it is today.
16:38
And and it must be it. It must become a real problem
16:43
for that political base coming into midterm elections.
16:49
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yes,
16:51
indeed. I, I think there is a
16:54
splintering of the MAGA base right now over, you know, many,
16:59
many, many things that, that Trump has done, but particularly
17:03
the Epstein file as well, because you know, like for, you
17:08
know, that's for, for, for, for a while.
17:10
This was supposedly this Q&N conspiracy about Pizzagate,
17:15
right? And it turns out the Pizzagate
17:17
is real because it's really about Epstein.
17:21
The real Pizzagate is actually Jeffrey Epstein and everyone is
17:26
implicated. The, all of the elite, no matter
17:29
what they're, they're Democrats, Republican, Trump, Clinton,
17:34
everybody's in on it. And I think there's a lot of
17:38
disillusionment right now in US politics.
17:41
You know, I mean, I think that it was already baked in.
17:45
I mean, but now there's even more disillusionment, you know,
17:48
like recently, you know, there's a there's a trend called on on
17:53
social media, like people say, Oh, I'm, I'm in my very Chinese
17:58
face of my life. You know, all the young and
18:00
zoomers posting with Chinese aesthetics.
18:03
And then you that got New York Post to, to post.
18:05
Oh, why are all these young UNS, you know, chasing after like the
18:09
aesthetics of a communist country, right?
18:12
But what you know, you would you.
18:15
It's almost like the young people have totally giving up
18:20
on, you know, their, their society being controlled by
18:23
paedophiles, confirmed paedophiles.
18:25
They're disgusted. I think people are just deeply
18:29
disgusted. They already had political
18:33
reasons to be alienated from the elite, but they are now just
18:37
deeply, genuinely disgusted as human beings.
18:41
And, you know, this turn to the China Maxing, I think they call
18:44
it, isn't it? This turn to China in a sense is
18:48
a turn to a more wholesome lifestyle aesthetic, drinking
18:53
hot water, you know, these sorts of things.
18:56
They're sort of symbolic. But at the same time, I think
18:58
they speak to a contrast to, to what is a, you know, a Sodom and
19:04
Gomorrah kind of situation clearly amongst a, a, a, a, not
19:10
just a sliver of people, an incredibly large cohort of
19:15
political and commercial elite clearly tightly intertwined with
19:20
each other. And the problem is, is that it
19:24
does reinforce or even affirm, you know, many conspiracy
19:29
theories. I must say I've never been prone
19:32
to conspiracy theory because I think that if it's a choice
19:35
between conspiracies or or essentially coincidental
19:38
incompetence, I've usually gone for coincidental incompetence.
19:42
But when you've got something like this and you know that
19:47
people congregate in a specific location, the island, you start
19:52
to wonder whether in fact, they do spend a lot more time
19:55
orchestrating things than than than you might otherwise
19:59
believe. Look, I think people are just,
20:02
it's a firm, their worst sense of what the elite are like.
20:06
They're totally disgusted and, and, and they really just want a
20:12
big broom to go through the whole thing.
20:15
And you have that European lady in interview says, oh, because
20:20
Jeffrey Epstein is at the centre of all these powerful networks.
20:25
You will be a loser if you don't find yourself on in the Epstein
20:29
file I mean. Yeah, why?
20:32
Didn't you even say? That Now that's a win.
20:36
That's a win. And you know, what's your claim
20:39
to fame? Well, I was on the island and I
20:42
got named. That's my, you know, I mean,
20:44
seriously, I mean, oh, it's, it's just, it's an episode in
20:51
American history which really just peels away the, the sort of
20:56
moral veneer. And, and, and I think, you know,
20:59
for me, apart from being totally disgusted by it, I think it just
21:04
peels away that moral veneer. And it reminds the world that
21:08
the collective West and the United States at its pinnacle
21:11
have no grounds of any sort to point fingers at anyone else.
21:16
And if there were doubts before now, there should be no doubts
21:18
now. And, and, and countries around
21:22
the world can find both solace and confidence in their own
21:26
morality, in their own modes of good conduct.
21:29
And to actually pursue them, not as subordinate, uncivilised, you
21:35
know, lesser modes of being versus liberalism and, and, and
21:41
Western civilization, but actually as entirely legitimate,
21:45
decent ways of going about running a society and for people
21:49
to relate to each other and in particular to relate to young
21:53
people and children, right. The idea that these people were
21:57
sexual predators around young people and children is, is a
22:04
disgusting indictment really on it's just not a cult.
22:10
It's not only this culture, right, but it's this sense of
22:13
impunity that they were above it all that they could get away
22:16
with it and do to whoever, whatever it is that they wished.
22:22
Just filth and disgusting. And I mean, frankly, if, if you
22:27
hadn't, if you had a scintilla of belief that maybe the West
22:32
stood for anything that resembled some level of, of, of
22:38
being a moral beacon, forget about it.
22:40
It's all over. They've got to apologise to the
22:43
children, they've got to apologise to themselves and then
22:46
they've got to apologise to the rest of the world.
22:51
I I don't think that apology is coming forward right Right now
22:55
they're pointing fingers. They're right now this is what
22:57
they're doing. They're they're, they're
22:58
pointing fingers every which direction, you know, besides
23:02
pointing, but besides saying that Epstein is a Russian agent,
23:07
which is obviously nobody, nobody believes that, you know,
23:12
when it's so like the elephant in the room is obviously the
23:16
most sad connection, but they're trying to say, oh, it's Chinese,
23:19
it's Russian. I mean, like even Steve Bannon,
23:22
you know, who have been outed as like, you know, this cohort of
23:25
Epstein and even in their email exchange, Steven Bannon says
23:32
we're going to destroy China. And now they're saying, oh,
23:36
actually Steve Bannon is working with ACCP linked billionaire, by
23:42
which they mean Miles Quad. You know this famously anti anti
23:47
China anti CPC fugitive billionaire there that that that
23:52
lives in the United States and this.
23:54
Is the FLJ yes? Yes.
23:57
It's part. Of the same way.
23:58
Story but but but but but now they're saying Steve Bannon is
24:03
actually working for the Chinese intelligence, which is crazy
24:07
because Steve Bannon hates China and and he works with this like
24:11
Chinese dissident billionaire guy who made a career of
24:16
sponsoring all these like anti China social media networks and
24:22
just because Miles Guac is Chinese so in their logic well
24:26
he must be a Chinese Communist spy.
24:29
I mean like that's, that's their their their kind of circular
24:32
reasoning now, which also should deserve.
24:34
Chang thing, right? But this is the Gordon Chang
24:36
thing too, right? You know China's going to
24:40
collapse. It is imminently collapsing.
24:42
And he's clearly a, a, a, an asset of the People's Republic
24:47
of China. But this is, this is the thing,
24:51
right? And This is why I think
24:53
increasingly it's hard to take any of this stuff coming out of
24:58
the West, it's propaganda arm seriously anymore.
25:01
I know that the Congress commissioned a whole bunch of
25:06
this propaganda through the budget appropriations that have
25:09
passed over the last few years. There's billions of dollars
25:12
available, right? So you get why people jump on
25:15
the bandwagon and do all of this because they're on an earth.
25:18
But this isn't a credible earn. And like that European woman
25:25
that you mentioned, if you think associating yourself with all of
25:29
this is a winning strategy for your own personal reputation,
25:34
then you've you've got rocks in your head and there will be no
25:40
apology as you say. But all of these propagandists
25:43
would be well advised to sort of pack up and go on holidays for a
25:46
couple of weeks and come back because they do themselves no
25:50
favours whilst they, you know, they are digging a hole for
25:53
themselves. And, and this is the point.
25:57
I mean, I guess, look, I know that there will be no public
26:00
apology, of course, but in a sense it is a case of saying go
26:05
and do some serious self reflection folks and, and, and
26:11
rejoin humanity after you've done that.
26:14
And, you know, if there's one thing, of course, that the
26:18
American elite are not very good at, it's it's a good dose of
26:21
self reflection. But this is precisely, at a
26:25
minimum, what this moment calls for now.
26:29
But this isn't a winning strategy to try to distract
26:32
people either by accusing Jeffrey Epstein of being a
26:35
Russian spy or by trying to to to run, you know, an aggressive
26:41
propaganda piece about a guy in Hong Kong that no one knows
26:45
about or cares about. This is a moment.
26:48
And I think this is the misread, isn't it?
26:49
The American elite have misread how deep, how deep the sense of
26:56
disgust there is from their own people, ordinary, decent
27:00
Americans, not to mention everyone else across the rest of
27:04
the world. Well, I, I, I don't even think
27:08
they even themselves believe they're pointing fingers and,
27:12
and, and, and, and, and, and, and shifting blame is really
27:16
going to shift the public opinion.
27:18
I think what's really happening is all these pundits, all these
27:21
news media channels that's coming out with the story.
27:25
It's not that they they they think they can convince the
27:28
public, but I think this is more demonstration of their loyalty
27:33
establishment. Like, hey, we play ball, right?
27:36
We will, we will. We'll spit out the most
27:39
ridiculous story that no one even believe then, you know,
27:43
like tarnish our reputation, drag our reputation through the
27:46
mud. But we, you know, we will do
27:50
whatever you guys want us to do. I think that's really what it
27:54
is. You know, they're they're it's a
27:55
it's a public humiliation ritual that demonstrates their loyalty
28:00
to the cause, which is to to the pedophilic establishment.
28:04
And yeah, and and and I think. It's just look, it look.
28:09
It's hard to fathom how people are willing to do that right.
28:15
You know, you people usually have some limits somewhere and
28:20
and I would have thought, you know, committing your personal
28:24
reputation to backing the the great paedophilia protectorate
28:30
is should really be, you know, at least the bottom line.
28:34
But for these people it even it, it isn't even a bottom line.
28:38
And you know, the and and the total silence on all of this.
28:42
It, it look, it is quite remarkable.
28:44
And but anyway, look for me, you know, the, the, these questions.
28:49
It wasn't so much about American Imperium this past fortnight,
28:52
Karl. It was really about the collapse
28:55
of the, the moral fabric or the moral facade of the collective W
28:59
that caught my attention. The other thing, by the way,
29:04
which I think is probably worth having a chat about is the, the
29:07
election in Japan. Again, the the propaganda has
29:15
been working quite hard to try to spin this as as a rebuke of
29:22
of China's position last year in response to Takaichi's remarks
29:30
concerning Taiwan Island. But again, I think it speaks to
29:35
a certain amount of desperation from from the from the
29:39
propagandists because, you know, China would have said what it
29:44
was going to say regardless of whether or not she was going to
29:46
call a snap election. And it does it for its own
29:49
reasons. How that plays out, of course,
29:51
will take its own time. But but, you know, the
29:55
propagandists, I think are again, proving that they are
29:58
willing to clutch at straws and and avoid what I think are
30:01
actually some pretty serious issues, but also some
30:05
possibilities and opportunities coming out of this election.
30:09
You know where she gain the resounding majority in the in
30:13
the diet so. I think people are desperate
30:19
because there are, they feel like, OK, finally, at least we
30:22
have Japan on our side. Because I see a lot of these
30:25
western right wing people, you know, posting edits of like, you
30:30
know, the, the, the, the Japanese World War 2 aesthetics
30:34
with together with Taka Ichi's election because they know what
30:38
she's about. They know she's like outro right
30:42
wing, even in Japan and and they, they, they like that
30:46
because they thought, OK, at least Japan is on our side will
30:49
help us to contain China because they knew United States alone
30:54
can no longer contain China by itself.
30:56
So they're hoping, oh, OK, at least we have Japan on our side.
31:01
But, you know, they, they As for like the media pundits, you
31:05
know, talking about all how this is a loose for, for Xi Jinping.
31:09
Again, this is like a total misreading.
31:12
This is why I think a lot of the, you know, people, a lot of
31:17
talking points from the West about China.
31:19
It's 100% projection because China's response to Japan is not
31:25
attempt to alter Japanese domestic politics.
31:28
It was never about, OK, we're going to put pressure on Japan.
31:31
So, so Takaichi will lose the election.
31:35
You know that this is kind of the tactics that United States
31:37
is famous for is to interfere in in other countries domestic
31:42
politics, to do regime change, to do colour revolution.
31:46
China doesn't care about that. Only China think cares about is
31:50
issue of Taiwan which is the issue for Chinese sovereignty
31:53
that like like you said China will will react regardless.
31:58
You know, if someone like Taka Ichi impinge on the Chinese
32:02
sovereignty the way that she did, well, you know, whether she
32:05
wins election in Japan or not. That's immaterial.
32:09
Let's not forget firstly, let's not forget firstly that the snap
32:14
election was called at the end of January.
32:18
China's response to her comments in relation to Taiwan was in
32:23
2025. There was no hint that there was
32:27
going to be a snap election then.
32:29
In other words, the chronology doesn't even back up this
32:32
particular line of argument. As you say, China, Beijing would
32:38
have said what it had said regardless of whether Takaichi
32:44
was Prime Minister or whether it was still her predecessor, had
32:48
he said the same things. And the position won't change
32:52
going forward. It's a bit like recently there's
32:55
been a bit of chatter about how, you know, Taiwan might become
32:59
part of the bargaining chip, right, with President Trump's
33:03
visit to Beijing, will likely visit the Beijing in in April.
33:08
And, and I've often said to people, I said Beijing is not
33:12
going to have Taiwan Island as a bargaining chip because you
33:16
don't bargain sovereignty. Sovereignty is just sovereignty.
33:21
I mean, you don't trade that. It's not a chip at all.
33:24
So I, so I don't think that the question of Taiwan was ever a,
33:29
a, a, a political bargaining question.
33:33
And I mean, so that's the first misread.
33:36
The second misread I think is that by and large her election
33:42
success and you know, in some ways in terms of the 2/3
33:46
majority of the Diet is a resounding success, is
33:50
nonetheless built on a relatively narrow and arguably
33:54
potentially fragile public mandate.
33:57
Because let's not forget that Japan, it has voluntary voting.
34:00
Firstly, about 55% of eligible Japanese voted in the group
34:07
tickets in the election. So there's single constituency
34:12
members and then there are a multi member constituency
34:17
groups. Her party received about 36% of
34:20
the vote. 36% of 55 is about 19. So what we're talking about is
34:33
19% of eligible Japanese electors actually voting for her
34:41
party, but which, because of the nature of the system, translates
34:45
into a massive winner's bonus. So 19% of popular support out of
34:53
a total population, 45% of which didn't bother voting, leads to
34:58
67% in the Diet. That's called a gerrymander,
35:02
right? But this is how the system
35:04
works. And so I think it delivers to
35:07
her big numbers in the Diet, which she should use, right?
35:12
Because if you don't, don't use it, it'll create a problem for
35:14
you anyway. But the, the, the, the challenge
35:18
always is the is, is the narrowness of the actual popular
35:23
base. And if you looked at both the
35:28
the the election results in the UK and also President Trump's
35:32
election in 2024, you'll actually find that what appears
35:39
as a massive victory in terms of either the Electoral College or
35:44
seats in Parliament in the case of the UK, is actually based on
35:49
about 1/3 of the population supporting you.
35:53
And again, it's because a whole bunch of people don't bother
35:57
turning out to participate. They've given up on the system.
36:02
And the system is designed to give a big winner's bonus to
36:07
those who, you know, come in first.
36:10
And, I mean, that's what what we see.
36:12
And they've squandered their mandates.
36:15
Now you can see that President Trump's mandate, his weight is
36:18
actually really narrow. Again, people losing faith.
36:22
You know, there is a base that rusted on hardcore.
36:25
But that's all he seems to have left now.
36:27
You know, anybody who gave him and the administration, the new
36:32
administration, some benefit of the doubt, they've lost faith
36:36
already. And it's only a year in Uki mean
36:40
the Prime Minister stammer, I think, from memory, is now the
36:44
most unpopular Prime Minister in what post war history?
36:49
I mean, this, this is astounding staff.
36:52
And he's been Prime Minister for less than two years.
36:56
And again, it's partly because the big numbers in the
36:59
Parliament mask a very fragile popular mandate.
37:03
And I think the same challenge arises for Takaichi.
37:08
I saw, you know, people doing Starmer's visit in China.
37:12
There are a lot of Chinese citizens, you know, rushing to
37:16
have group photo with Starmer. I, I, I made the remark like
37:20
he's more popular in China than he is in the, in his home
37:23
country. Because I just cannot imagine
37:26
the same thing happened in Britain, you know, or the
37:29
average British people will try to rush their picture.
37:33
The same happened with Macron, right?
37:34
Because Macron's popular popularity in France is, you
37:39
know, at the bottom of the barrel too.
37:42
But when he visited China, you know, he had a rock star
37:44
welcome, you know, go for a walk around the lake and things.
37:47
And which is probably why they go to China.
37:49
It's a little self esteem boost. Well, I, I think, I think the
37:53
reason is because for, for the Chinese people, they see whether
37:57
Starmer or Macron as representative of their country,
38:01
right? They they see Macron as
38:02
representative France and Starmer as representative UK.
38:05
You know, not you know, they rushing to have photo with with
38:10
Starmer or Prakrang is not a judgement unnecessarily on
38:14
Starmer and, and and Macron themselves personally.
38:18
It's, it's, it's really like, you know, the like they, they
38:21
have expressed their friendly, you know, cordial feelings to to
38:25
the country that represents. When, But when friends come from
38:29
afar, you're punks, you're gonna find like, so, you know, it is
38:34
a, you know, polite and good practise to welcome friends from
38:39
afar and treat them well. They're visitors, they're guests
38:42
and, you know, and that's what you get, right.
38:46
But then they go back home. And I mean, and of course
38:52
Starmer's now caught up in the, in the Epstein staff via Peter
38:57
Mandelson, you know, and, and he's not the only one.
39:01
You've also got Gordon Brown, who was in the Guardian or, or,
39:08
or the Times opining about how he feels terribly let down by
39:14
Mandelson. He didn't think he was a man of
39:16
such bad character really. You know, I mean, most people
39:20
who followed British politics actually know that Mandelson was
39:24
a very much a behind the scenes Svengali puppeteer puppet mask,
39:31
the kind of character he knew where the bodies were buried.
39:34
In fact, he probably buried a bunch of them.
39:36
And he was certainly well known to being borderline ethical,
39:42
right. So, you know, the idea that, you
39:47
know, you're you're shocked by by Mandelson being intimately
39:52
involved in the Epstein affair that should we call it Epstein
39:58
Gate? You know, and, but, and then of
40:02
course, you know, there's Tony Blair, you know, total silence
40:06
so far, won't say a word. So British politics is a mess.
40:12
The country is largely dysfunctional socially and
40:18
economically. And you know, and, and, and
40:24
again, I look at all of this, Carl, and, and you think, how is
40:28
it that you've got a political elite who have literally become
40:35
so detached from the affairs of their own country, right.
40:39
So, you know, the, the Epstein stuff actually tells you in a
40:44
certain sense how not only detached they've become, but how
40:51
arrogantly detached they've become.
40:53
And but you see it everywhere. You know, even for those who
40:56
aren't directly implicated in the Epstein stuff, it's quite
41:00
obvious that they are a political elite who have become
41:04
clueless about the things that are affecting their own country.
41:10
Just as well they get a nice welcome in Beijing.
41:12
Otherwise, you know, could you imagine if they didn't?
41:14
It'd be it'd be a massive blow to the ego that that even a
41:19
visit to another country doesn't get you a Rockstar welcome.
41:23
That's a local state of affairs. Back to Japan though, I think
41:28
Takaichi had planned this. I mean, she knew what she was
41:32
getting into. She knew that by provoking China
41:34
over her Taiwan statement, she will get a response from China
41:39
and then that will lead to a backlash of rise of nationalism
41:44
inside Japan, which would help her, you know, when the next
41:48
election. I think she planned the whole
41:49
thing. I mean, it's just that she plays
41:52
her own political career about the actual interest of Japan,
41:58
you know, cuz I, I think she clearly like, she's leading
42:02
Japan on a very self destructive path.
42:05
You know, during giving a very bad economy, declining
42:12
demographics, ageing population and, and given all the, and with
42:18
the, with all the additional tariffs slapped on on by United
42:22
States, she is now committed to devote more spending into
42:27
military into, into rearming Japan.
42:31
And, and this might prove popular in immediate term among
42:37
his right wing support circles, but it's not good for Japan.
42:41
It's not. It's not.
42:42
It does not bode well for Japan. But then, just like politicians
42:46
everywhere, you know, who cares about who cares about what
42:50
happens a few years down the road?
42:53
Only cares. Well, look, Japan does have some
42:58
very big, big challenges, right? But one of the interesting, and
43:02
I'll touch on those in the tick, but one of the interesting
43:04
dynamics about such a monster majority is that they're often a
43:10
blessing in disguise. Because what you also have is a
43:15
much larger number of mouths to feed and a much larger number of
43:21
politicians in the Diet who believe that they should be
43:24
promoted and that they've got their own personal agendas and
43:27
things that they want to pursue. And large majorities often lead
43:32
to a collapse in party discipline.
43:34
Small majorities parties often hold together a lot tighter.
43:39
So one of the challenges that I think she could face is actually
43:42
a a fairly rapid disintegration of party discipline as factions
43:47
and sub factions and various personal interests begin to air
43:52
their own pet projects. That's the first thing that I
43:55
think she's going to need to deal with.
43:56
How does she hold the show together?
43:58
And it is not an irony because but but it's a problem that
44:03
comes when you actually have big wins, right?
44:05
You've got a bunch of goodwill behind you inside the party for
44:08
a while, but you've also got the seeds of jealousy, ambition and
44:14
all of that mixed in. She's also got some, you know,
44:16
serious rivals. And of course, at the moment
44:19
she's untouchable. But you know, politics is
44:22
politics. And the rivals will be bidding
44:24
their time and any small stumble is going to be pounced upon.
44:29
Now, small stumbles happen, of course, more typically in
44:32
environments where parties have big majorities.
44:34
People are careless. They they aren't as focused on
44:37
behaving well. And it could be a very small
44:40
thing. It could be someone in cabinet
44:41
who overspends on a meal somewhere that suddenly becomes
44:45
big news and and creates a political crisis.
44:49
So I think that that's a sort of a short term problem that she
44:52
needs to confront. But I think you touched on in a
44:55
sense the big issues or the real issues.
44:58
You can win an election big, but you know what?
45:01
The issues don't go away, do they?
45:03
The issues don't sit there and say, oh, she's now got a big
45:06
majority, so I'll just pack away my demographic.
45:13
Problems will disappear because the government's got a big
45:16
majority. The fact that Japan is heavily
45:19
dependent on expensive imported energy, well, that's going to
45:22
disappear too, because she's got a big majority.
45:25
The fact that Japan has a food, food problem, right?
45:28
And inflation, well, that'll just disappear too, because, you
45:32
know, the food market takes a look at the diet and says, oh,
45:35
you know, two 2/3 majority. That certainly trumps the real
45:39
issues of the day. But of course, none of that
45:41
happens. So we've got inflation as a
45:43
problem. We've got what are essentially
45:47
very, very flat wages growth for the majority of the Japanese.
45:51
And she's promised wage increases but not paid for by
45:55
the government. But she somehow wants the
45:56
private sector to pick up on wage increases.
45:59
But she's not doing that by backing trade union organisation
46:03
because she's from the right of the political spectrum.
46:06
So she's not going to do that. So how is she going to deliver
46:09
on real wage increases? Big problem.
46:13
One possible way is to somehow catalyse A monstrous run of
46:18
productivity growth. In theory, you might say that
46:23
that could happen because Japan is going to embark on an
46:27
expansive programme of energy system transformation that's
46:31
going to drop energy costs. It's going to robotize and
46:34
automate and AI. It's it's economy, but to do
46:39
those things, Karl, let's say that that's doable.
46:41
Let's say it's doable. It's only doable if they have
46:46
tight supply chain, cut collaborations with China.
46:51
It's not doable otherwise. You can't actually solve Japan's
46:55
structural economic problems without having good
46:59
relationships with China. The next issue that I think
47:02
she's going to confront is the regional security challenge.
47:07
It's one thing to talk about boosting military spending.
47:11
The other issue is the DPRK boosting military spending
47:15
doesn't resolve the security risks that Japan itself feels by
47:20
having a nuclear armed DPRK just over there.
47:24
And you can only deal with the DPRK by having good working
47:29
relationships with China and with Russia.
47:32
So there's a lot of work ahead of her that can't just be sort
47:38
of brushed away on the back of, you know, a few slogans during
47:42
an election, a little bit of nationalistic feeling and a
47:45
little bit of rah rah that got behind her.
47:48
She's clearly a formidable and incredibly capable political
47:53
operator. You know, there's no two ways
47:54
about that. You don't become Prime Minister,
47:58
especially in a society where men have traditionally run the
48:02
show by being a shrinking Violet and not being streetwise and
48:07
cunning. Right?
48:09
So she does bring capability to the table, but the circumstances
48:15
that she now finds herself in with a stonking majority sitting
48:18
in behind her are incredibly challenging and in fact will
48:23
test the extent to which her rhetoric can be squared with the
48:28
realities that she faces. Right.
48:31
You don't solve your economic problems or your security
48:34
problems in the region by not having good relationships with
48:37
China. She's likely to have to confront
48:40
the question of Russia as well, which they've quietly done with
48:44
the Sakalin projects. Right, But Russia is a part of
48:50
the northern Asian, Asian Arctic furniture unavoidable.
48:56
Russia and China have had naval exercises off the coast of
49:01
Japan. You don't solve N Asia without
49:08
the Russians at the table. Is that going to be possible or
49:12
not? Some might say that given that
49:15
Russia and the United States may be having some more sensible
49:20
talks, and I think maybe is probably about as good as you'd
49:23
say. And in fact, I would suggest
49:25
that it's actually going nowhere.
49:29
But, you know, does that create a window where she can pursue A
49:34
detente with Russia? Can that help her find the
49:40
pathway back to having a sensible, balanced relationship
49:45
with China that she needs for energy security?
49:48
Because they've got their green transition stuff going, right?
49:52
So Japan's committed to this sort of overarching clean energy
49:57
stuff and, and that means actually importing a bunch of
50:00
things from China. Japan talks about wanting to
50:05
become a food superpower. She wants to be 100% self
50:09
reliant in food pipe dream, to be honest with you.
50:14
But but she wants that and in fact wants Japan to be an
50:17
exporter, that exporter of foods.
50:19
Well, if you're going to do that, you're probably going to
50:22
need to have some reasonably good relationships with a big
50:26
food market. Just trying to guess what that
50:29
might be anyway, though, you know, just just just over the,
50:33
the sea, you know, there's a pretty big food market that has
50:36
historically bought quite a lot of food from Japan.
50:40
And of course you need technology for agricultural
50:44
productivity. You also need fertilisers.
50:48
And of course fertilisers are energy intensive.
50:50
And lo and behold, the Russians are actually pretty good at
50:52
manufacturing fertiliser. So I think she's got actually a
50:57
lot of real world problems and challenges that can actually
51:02
only be confronted constructively if she uses her
51:07
majority in a sense to repudiate her campaign rhetoric, right?
51:12
And now that's a difficult political problem because in a
51:16
sense, she's got a window to recalibrate a relationship with
51:21
China so that it actually comes back onto a level keel for
51:25
economic reasons first and foremost.
51:27
And then progressively, you know, around those security
51:31
issues, especially the DPRK and the potential nuclear, you know,
51:36
further nuclearization of the region.
51:38
Because of course, on the other hand, Carl, she's also wanting
51:41
not only to boost military expenditure, but there are
51:45
pressures in Japan for Japan to nuclearize itself.
51:51
Certainly there are pressures in, in Korea to, to do the same.
51:55
And they, and they are there for the same reason.
51:57
By the way, both the Japanese security strategic elite as well
52:05
as those in, in, in South Korea have both come to an
52:08
understanding in their own ways that the Americans are not
52:12
reliable. So, you know, she's sitting
52:16
there in a position where she knows that the Americans aren't
52:19
reliable. The Americans occupy Japan with
52:22
90,000 troops. They're pushing her to spend
52:26
more money, mainly on American stuff.
52:28
She needs good relationships with China.
52:32
And she's got Russia, which is a source of energy that Japan also
52:37
desperately needs. You know, if she can navigate
52:40
through this, you know she will prove to be a formidable
52:45
politician and one for the ages. But if you can't navigate
52:50
through this, this stalking majority that she's achieved off
52:54
the back of a bit of nationalism will end up proving to be
52:58
nothing more than a blip and and Japan will continue to bumble
53:04
along with economic and security problems.
53:08
I, I have serious doubt whether he was she will be able to do
53:13
180 on her policy toward China. I mean, I, I just, I just don't
53:18
see that happening. Well, it look, the only
53:21
conditions that actually make it possible is a stalking majority,
53:26
ironically, because she can get away with a bit more.
53:29
Whether she will or or not, it's a totally different story.
53:32
And of course, there are plenty of her own backers who will be
53:38
totally opposed to to the 180 right.
53:41
So this is very difficult. But funnily enough, you know, in
53:45
politics, I've often found over the years that the party or the
53:49
grouping that is most able to do the the the the thing that needs
53:56
to be done knowing that it's going to ruffle a lot of
53:58
feathers are those on the side of the issue itself.
54:02
So for instance, if trade unions need to be, you know, brought
54:09
under control, then the best party to do that is actually the
54:14
Labour parties. So because they can handle their
54:19
own constituency. So the best placed people to
54:23
sort of deal with this China issue are actually the hardline
54:26
nationalists. They, they are the only ones
54:29
who've got that sliver of political room to get away with
54:33
it. Because you, you know, if there
54:34
was anyone else who tried to do it, that'd be, that'd be strung
54:37
up right. Politically.
54:40
She has the chance of getting away with it.
54:45
Whether she will or not, as you say, I think that there's a
54:48
massive question mark over it because to do so will mean that
54:53
she will take political hits. So she'll use up political
54:57
capital very quickly, but she but it would require an
55:00
incredible amount of political courage to do this.
55:03
And you know, it's hard to see where that courage is going to
55:07
come from. Yeah, I mean that that's, that's
55:10
basically only Nixon can visit China, right.
55:14
But correct, Nixon visit China under a very specific
55:18
circumstances, which is United States try to play China card
55:23
against the Soviet Union right now.
55:26
I mean, it's pretty consistent pattern.
55:29
The Japanese elite have pitched their bandwagon to the US
55:34
imperium because they benefited for the last 40-50 years and and
55:42
I just don't see any kind of compelling reason to do like a
55:48
Nixon in China moment. No, that's right.
55:52
Yeah, exactly. So I, I don't think that there's
55:55
enough circumstantial pressure to force this, force her hand on
56:00
this. And, you know, certainly not in
56:03
the next 6 months, but of course, it's actually this next
56:05
six months that gives her the best window as well.
56:09
But if there's no pressing need, circumstantial need, then she'll
56:13
try to get away with not doing anything.
56:16
There will be other problems as a result, you know, inflation,
56:19
the challenges around the energy transition that they're trying
56:22
to engineer without which you're not going to get your sort of
56:26
efficient implementation of automation, AI, etcetera,
56:30
etcetera, which impacts productivity growth, which then
56:33
impacts wages growth. And and so I think we're going
56:37
to see the likelihood of a continuation of a pretty flaccid
56:41
economy, limited demand growth domestically.
56:47
The military staff, yeah, you can pour some money into it, but
56:50
it's still quite narrow, right? You know, And it doesn't have a
56:52
lot of spillover effects onto the rest of rest of the economy.
56:57
And, you know, and in some respects, it'll be a majority
57:02
squandered. So do you have any?
57:09
I'm asking you again to look into your crystal ball.
57:13
Do you foresee a period of relative peace up to before the
57:21
Trump's visit to China, Between, I'm talking about between United
57:24
States and China in particular. Look, well, no, I don't foresee
57:29
that at all because one of the things about President Trump is
57:34
that he has a track record, firstly, of acting in short
57:40
term, capricious ways, you know, just out of the blue, he'll do
57:43
things. That's the first thing.
57:45
The second thing though is that he does have a, a pattern, a
57:49
sort of a style of preparing for these sorts of things.
57:54
And that is that he seeks to create points of leverage,
58:00
create an issue that you can take off the table in
58:02
negotiations, for example. And I think that there is
58:07
actually a pretty good chance over the next month and 1/2 or
58:11
so that we'll see a few more things that will be flashpoints
58:17
that whilst won't destroy the prospects of a trip, nonetheless
58:23
will create issues that will enable the trip to deliver wins.
58:29
So in a sense, you got to remember what President Trump is
58:31
actually quite good at is creating a, creating the problem
58:35
that he then solves by announcing the removal of it and
58:38
then declaring victory. So, you know, announce another
58:43
tariff, announce an export restriction, announce something
58:47
in response to the Jimmy Ly staff that he can then take off
58:50
the table later as part of a win.
58:54
And you know, so I think we, you know, there's actually a good
58:57
likelihood of this sort of behaviour unfolding for the next
59:01
little while. There are some face to face
59:03
meetings coming up at an official level, following up on
59:06
the trade discussions and, and things and, and, and so, you
59:11
know, let's see how that all goes.
59:13
But there are some thorny issues, right?
59:14
So we've had the pressure put on Panama in relation to to the
59:19
ports there. We've had finally an arrangement
59:23
come to bear on on TikTok America.
59:27
So in some respects that issue's a bit off the table.
59:30
There have been some successes, successful things I think around
59:34
fentanyl in one shape or another.
59:38
The certainly the number of overdose deaths in North America
59:42
or in the United States from Fenton N have dropped.
59:44
You know, that's a good thing. We've got, you know, that
59:50
there's an attempt to open up the China market by allowing
59:54
NVIDIA to sell its H200 kit. It doesn't look like the Chinese
1:00:00
side is really that keen on on it.
1:00:03
But nonetheless, you know, you know, so I think President
1:00:06
Trump's trying to create few elements of ostensible goodwill.
1:00:12
You know, we signed off on the H200.
1:00:15
We've done this, we've done that.
1:00:16
But at the same time, I think he will want to create some issues
1:00:19
that give him some points of leverage that he can can use.
1:00:24
But look, there's one thing that's very, very clear.
1:00:28
And that is that the United States has very little leverage
1:00:32
over Beijing. And but if it actually just
1:00:37
treated Beijing with respect and treated people normally, it
1:00:44
probably would have a better chance of getting an outcome
1:00:46
than trying to play this, you know, leverage game.
1:00:50
You know, the leverage stuff just doesn't seem to work very
1:00:52
well when it comes to the folk who who who occupied Jung Nan
1:00:56
Hai. In fact, it causes them to dig
1:00:59
their heels in. Yeah, it's hard.
1:01:05
To think, what do you think? Do you think we're going to have
1:01:08
peace for six weeks? I I thought there might be a
1:01:12
semi detente, but you are right. You are right, Trump.
1:01:16
So that's Trump's negotiation style.
1:01:18
I mean, he will create the problem so he can claim that he
1:01:22
solved them later when he takes those problems off the table.
1:01:26
So you're quite right, there could be.
1:01:27
It'll be the 10th war. It'll be the 10th war that he
1:01:30
stopped. Give that man a Nobel Peace
1:01:35
Prize already, Jesus, OK. In fact, it's probably stopped
1:01:41
the Japan China war already already.
1:01:47
Well, on that happy note, thank you again, Doctor Powell, for,
1:01:54
for coming to talk to us. You know, we, I, I always gain
1:01:58
something, a new insight every time I talk to you.
1:02:02
And thanks for people who want to follow you on social media or
1:02:06
otherwise. Where would they go?
1:02:09
Yeah, Warrick Carl dot sub stack dot com or written things and on
1:02:28
YouTube and. OK, thanks everyone for
1:02:39
listening. Until next time, bye bye.