Latest / Simply Bitcoin / You May NEVER See $60K Bitcoin Again!! | EP 1438

Transcript

You May NEVER See $60K Bitcoin Again!! | EP 1438 · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Bitcoin may be in a bear market and many people are convinced
0:05
that we are going lower, but not everyone.
0:08
Whales are aggressively buying the dip and Bill Miller the 4th
0:12
thinks we are closer to a bottom than most people think.
0:17
Before I get into some interesting data points for you,
0:20
let's hear Bill Miller on I believe this was CNBC.
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That's how I teased it. You have a number in mind.
0:27
What is it? I actually think there's a
0:29
reasonable chance. We saw the bottom last week at
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60,000, and there's a couple of reasons for that.
0:35
First and foremost, $60,000 is the cash production cost for a
0:39
new Bitcoin. OK, So what happens is when you
0:42
get below that, the weak miners start going out of business,
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they shut down, and they're the main source of marginal selling
0:48
pressures. So when the weak hands are out,
0:50
OK, you have a less selling pressure and it's likely to put
0:52
in the bottom. The second reason is Bitcoin
0:55
trades on global liquidity. And if you look at when it
0:58
peaked in the fall, it just so happened to be the exact same
1:01
time that the Fed noticed huge stresses in short term funding
1:04
markets that effectively created an entire 180 on monetary
1:08
policy. So if you look at what the Fed
1:10
was doing in the fall, they were allowing 50 billion a month to
1:14
go off of their balance sheet, just drain away.
1:16
Now, what happened in December, they did a complete 180 on that.
1:19
What they're doing is buying $40 billion in that a month.
1:23
So you've seen a net swing in liquidity from the world's
1:25
largest liquidity provider to the tune of 90 billion a month.
1:29
So you have this huge floor of liquidity, right, that just came
1:32
in. You've got the cash production
1:33
cost there. And there's another technical
1:35
element here, which is if you look at historical bottoms in
1:38
Bitcoin, they've often happened when the percent of the supply
1:42
in loss exceeds the percent of the supply in profit.
1:46
And 60,000 is right around where that happens.
1:48
So you have a whole bunch of factors converging at around 60.
1:50
OK. It's funny you mentioned.
1:52
Well, if you're not familiar with Bill Miller, he is well, he
1:57
was a billionaire. He hit the billionaire status, I
1:59
think his net worth to roughly around 500 million.
2:02
He's a long time bitcoiner. He even got his dad to is a a
2:05
legendary Wall Street hedge fund asset manager into Bitcoin.
2:09
He is a billionaire. So Bill Miller I think has been
2:12
in the space for a while and you could consider him a bitcoiner
2:16
and he's got a a much bigger platform than just an average
2:19
bitcoiner. Yes, you could say he's a suit
2:21
coiner, but but when he says things you, you tend to listen
2:25
to them. This is signal here.
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Now one point that I do want to say before I, I break down what
2:32
cost production is and, and what those numbers are, because I, I
2:35
don't think many people have really heard that idea much is
2:40
the second point he made, which is the liquidity.
2:43
Currently, we are in this not QEQE environment, but it is a
2:48
fundamental difference from where we were a few years ago
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where it was a quantitative tightening where the liquidity
2:54
wasn't expanding. Now we are starting to see
2:56
liquidity expand and I think that's only going to increase
3:00
going into the midterms. If you aren't political, if you
3:04
understand just one basic thing about where we are politically
3:07
speaking right now is the Trump administration is, is not doing
3:12
very well. The polls aren't doing well.
3:14
They don't have much favorability right now.
3:17
And, and for most people, the thing that they're kind of
3:21
leaning their hat on is this idea that the midterms are this
3:24
year. So at a certain point this year,
3:26
we don't know when, but obviously heading into the
3:30
midterms, you will start to see the liquidity running hot.
3:33
They are going to have to run the economy extremely hot for
3:39
the average person, you know, for Main Street to really forget
3:43
all of their problems. If people are feeling richer,
3:48
then they'll probably continue voting for the Republican in the
3:51
Trump the Trump camp right now. I think that is the Trump card,
3:56
pun intended. If they turn the economy hot, if
3:59
they run the economy hot and people start feeling less broke
4:02
than we've been feeling, then probably all of the sins of this
4:06
administration will go by the wayside.
4:09
I don't think people will essentially switch to the
4:12
Democrats. If the economy is doing well,
4:14
people feel like they're making more money, they don't feel as
4:16
broke, then they're like, hey, all right, you know all the
4:19
other problems, Yes, there's been a lot of problems.
4:21
You've talked about them. We've all talked about them with
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our friends and family. But if they do run the economy
4:28
extremely high, if they do turn on the money printer, I think
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people will forget all of those sins.
4:33
Now, the other point here is, of course, the production costs.
4:37
Now, I don't think a lot of people have talked about this
4:40
much. I personally didn't even really
4:43
think about this too much, but Bill Miller's not the only one
4:47
talking about this. As you guys know, I do like
4:49
Charles Edwards. He also is an asset manager.
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He he runs his own hedge fund. He's a huge bitcoiner, though
4:55
recently he has been jumping on the quantum computing FUD stuff
5:00
saying that Bitcoin needs an update right now.
5:02
This is why a lot of the institutions are backing away
5:06
from Bitcoin, though we are seeing some other clips from
5:11
CNBC, from national news essentially saying that the
5:14
institutions are not pulling back because of quantum
5:17
computing FUD. This is actually not something
5:20
that they really think about because if you really understand
5:23
the quantum computing FUD, you realize, look, if that is a
5:27
concern, if quantum computing does get to a point where they
5:30
are going to crack all of this technology, the whole world is
5:35
in peril. So I, I think we still have time
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for the quantum computing fund. I think the push for, you know,
5:42
Bitcoin being updated to be quantum resistant, I think
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they're a little early. I think that hype is overblown.
5:48
I don't think that that's really the biggest concern right now.
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I think it's just the price sentiment.
5:54
And I do have a great clip from Pierre Rochard that I'm going to
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play in the numbers, which right here is like, you know, left
6:00
side of the bell curve, right side of the bell curve combined
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here. Anyways, anyways, the cost of
6:05
production, here we go. We got a tweet here.
6:07
Obviously Charles Edwards, he does have this bearish sentiment
6:13
right now because he has been doubling down on the quantum FUD
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and he goes, this is not good. As the Bitcoin miner exodus
6:19
continues, production cost has collapsed to 69 K and this was
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about a you know, two weeks ago. So I had the updated charge for
6:26
you guys. Electrical cost is 55 K.
6:29
This has expanded the potential range for near term downside.
6:32
And let me let me zoom in. What was the price?
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The price at that current time was 84 K.
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So he actually kind of called it I, I, I think he called the
6:40
crash. Anyways, I'm over here on
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caprio.com and he's got some really good charts.
6:48
If you want to, if you want to chart boy away from just TA tea
6:52
leaf reading, I highly recommend you go to
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caprioleibelieveitscapriole.iobutanywayscapriole.com. He's got a lot of charts, a lot
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of good insights. Here is the current production
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costs. You can see here.
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Let me see if I can zoom in. It's kind of small.
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Bitcoin current price 65K Bitcoin miner price 88,000
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production cost $72,000. So it went up a little bit and
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the electrical cost is currently $57,000.
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So we're currently in that deep value range right now, which
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makes me think that a lot of the calls and and of course, my Co
7:29
host who isn't here today, he has been calling for like the
7:32
40K range because of the historical patterns of Bitcoin
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where once it hits an all time high, it goes 70, you know,
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maybe 80% correction. And that does tend to make you
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think that it would go into the 40K range.
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You know, I think the reason I was so bullish when we hit 126
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is because I do fundamentally thing think things have changed.
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I know it's wrong on this time is different.
8:00
You know, I'll, I'll take the pie on the face.
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I, you know, I was wrong. All right, I admit it.
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For everyone that thinks they're dunking on me saying like, oh,
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these guys are wrong on their prediction, I get it.
8:11
Hey, we were all wrong. I think this year I, I think
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very few people called what? Or rather last year, sorry, I
8:17
think very few people were actually able to predict what
8:20
was going on. Yes, as the saying goes, you
8:23
know, a broken clock is twice or right twice a day.
8:27
I fundamentally like to stay bullish.
8:29
I I think there is more ROI, more upside to always being
8:33
bullish. Yes, I'm wrong when the price
8:35
crashes. But anyways, we're currently in
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that deep value range. Now.
8:39
My thesis was since the institutions got into Bitcoin,
8:43
since there is this seemingly quiet bid from institutions,
8:47
nation states, sovereign wealth funds, that things have
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fundamentally changed. And as we covered the other day,
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you know, Jack Muller's made a very good point that Bitcoin is
8:58
following the BlackRock Software ETF almost to a tee for the last
9:03
five years. What does that make me think is
9:06
going on? Well, it further strengthens my
9:10
thesis on what's going on with Bitcoin is that it's no longer
9:14
being run by just retail, that the institutions are completely
9:18
in control of the Bitcoin price. Hence why I think, and I've been
9:22
saying and I and I was taking a premature victory lap by saying,
9:27
oh look, bitcoins going sideways, we're not going to
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crash. I'm right.
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This makes me think that this is the bear market currently, that
9:34
60K was the bottom that from here on out, yes, the bottom
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hasn't fully formed. We're not going to see a quick V
9:42
correction on a bottom. It's not going to just go down
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to 60 K and then we're going to start ripping again.
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We're going to form a bottom over the next few months
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probably, but I don't think and again, I am probably going to be
9:54
wrong on this and I'll come back on the show and tell you, hey, I
9:57
was wrong. OK, I'm updating my thesis.
10:00
But it feels like we are consolidating around this 60K
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range for the next couple of months most likely to actually
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form a bottom. And you can see that the
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production costs, literally how much it costs to create a
10:14
Bitcoin is roughly around these points.
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So even if it goes lower, that just means Bitcoin is at an
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extreme discount. Like I said a minute ago, this
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is deep value area right now, deep value range.
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If you're buying Bitcoin right now, you're going to look back
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on this and be like, I'm so glad I was continuing to buy Bitcoin.
10:35
I'm so glad I was bullish on Bitcoin when everyone was scared
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and and trying to leave the market.
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I think what we're seeing right now is 2 things.
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Obviously the institutions are in control.
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I, I may be a conspiracy theorist, I may have a tinfoil
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hat on, but I fundamentally believe that the powers that be,
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the banks, the sovereign wealth funds, the nation states, they
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wanted a discount on Bitcoin. And really to go deeper on my
11:03
conspiracy here, did you guys see CZ doing the rounds now?
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He's on the All In podcast. If that doesn't click for you,
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that maybe CZ made a deal with Trump or the Trump
11:16
administration as a market maker to essentially dump the price
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before we start to see a generational run.
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Well, there's two. There's a a lot of data points
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to really say that that is what's happening.
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One, of course, CZ was pardoned by Trump administration.
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Who knows what they did on the back end.
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CZ not only runs Binance, which we've seen has been dumping on
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us, he also runs or Binance owns 2 huge market makers.
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So he's got the capability of dumping the price.
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And three, now he's making the YouTube rounds, particularly at
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the All In podcast, which one of the hosts is David Sachs, who is
11:55
the crypto czar. So all of this and, and I again,
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I know I said this last week and I, and I still said it, I don't
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like to necessarily say that there is market manipulation or
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or rather price manipulation on Bitcoin when it's dumping.
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Because at that very same, you know, flip side of the coin is
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there's market manipulation when it's on the upside, but it does
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feel like there was a coordinated dump on Bitcoin.
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So you know, some entities can get into Bitcoin, do a position
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in Bitcoin and it all aligned very I in my mind again, maybe
12:29
maybe I'm not right now, but I am I think I am right here.
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The Wall Street institutions, the banks, the nation states,
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they're all making their announcements.
12:42
They're all trying to get regulatory clarity through.
12:44
They're all trying to position themselves.
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And it just so happens that when all of when all these huge
12:49
announcements came out like the Bitcoin price dump.
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My favorite example is the Bitcoin price dumps after JP
12:56
Morgan fudge strategy. It hits I, I, I forget what
13:00
price it was, but you know, it was higher than it was today.
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And then JP Morgan launches their Bitcoin back loans.
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It's like I it's hard for me to not see that this is all
13:11
coordinated. It's basically what I want, what
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I'm saying. So right now is the time to be
13:15
buying. Is this the time to blow your
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whole stack? I don't know.
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I I wouldn't do that. As I've been telling you before,
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we dropped the last leg down to 60 K.
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It's like I, I'm not going to tell you to catch knives right
13:26
now. I think now is a good time to
13:29
deploy capital. You know, maybe budget a little
13:32
more for this month of February and then see what your expenses
13:36
are at the end of the month and then deploy capital and just
13:39
continue to do this. And still we, until we start to
13:41
see either the market bottom out or we see some kind of reversal.
13:46
I think that's probably the best way to do this.
13:48
So when you do deploy some Fiat, some capital, you are getting a
13:52
big chunk or if you're, you know, you don't really care
13:55
about the price, you just DCA every day, every week, etcetera,
13:58
etcetera, etcetera. Now going further, again, this
14:02
isn't just, you know, a few hedge fund investors making
14:07
Bitcoin predictions and saying, hey, maybe we've seen a bottom.
14:11
We are starting to see on chain that whales are accumulating
14:15
AT60K prices, which is again further saying, hey, people are
14:21
starting to enter the market now.
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Are they going in in full? Are they buying mass amounts of
14:27
Bitcoin currently? I wouldn't say mass amounts, but
14:30
it does seem like there there is people waiting on the sidelines
14:34
but they are starting to deploy capital which does make me think
14:37
that hey, maybe that 60K was was one of the bottoms or rather is
14:42
the bottom. Here we go.
14:43
This is on Yahoo, but it is a Bloomberg article and this also
14:48
was posted by Walter Bloomberg. I don't know if you know that
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Twitter account, but he's a Bloomberg analyst.
14:52
Anyways, the headline is Bitcoin whales are buying again as other
14:56
investors are retreating. So don't retreat right now.
15:00
Anyways, again, this was originally posted on Bloomberg.
15:03
But we see Bitcoin has just drawn fresh support from some of
15:07
its largest holders, though the return of demand remains narrow
15:11
enough to raise doubts about whether it marks a recovery or
15:13
mere damage control. That, I think is the broader
15:18
perspective right now, the broader consensus.
15:21
A lot of people are seeing the 60K price and we're like, are we
15:24
going lower? It feels like we're going lower.
15:27
It feels like this is depth of the bear market.
15:30
I don't know if you guys are feeling that I'm I'm over here.
15:33
Like, look, on the one hand, I would love cheaper sets.
15:37
On the other hand, I'm like this feels like this feels like a
15:41
bottom to me and and I'm getting the same thoughts that I've
15:44
gotten before in the past. I'm like this feels like peak
15:50
disillusionment. This is peak just like utter
15:54
devastation, even though it could get worse.
15:56
But you're just like, man, last year was such a disappointment.
16:00
Here we are at the start of 2026.
16:02
We're at 60 K. You know, I don't want to say
16:05
what, how much worse can it get? Cuz it could obviously get
16:09
worse, but it feels like a a peak of a bear market to me.
16:13
But hey, I'll only know if I'm right in hindsight.
16:16
Anyways, so-called whale wallets accumulated about 53,000 coins
16:21
in the past week. I repeat, 53,000 coins in the
16:25
past week and their biggest buying spree since November.
16:28
After weeks of heavy selling. Those kinds of purchases helped
16:31
steady price after a steep drawdown even as most other
16:35
investors stayed on the sideline.
16:37
Now that is probably the interesting kind of take away
16:40
way here is like, yes, people are still watching the chaos
16:44
unfold and and they're they're a little tentative.
16:47
They're they're a little timid. They don't know if this is as
16:50
I've been saying, we don't know if this is the bottom.
16:52
They don't know if they should deploy their capital or are they
16:54
going to get a better price. But we are starting to see the
16:58
whales accumulate Bitcoin currently, which is starting to
17:01
make a pretty good case that maybe we are starting to find a
17:04
bottom. Maybe we're going to go sideways
17:06
anyways. Glass notes showed that while
17:09
it's holding more than 1000 Bitcoin added more than $4
17:11
billion worth worth of Bitcoin in the last week, interrupting
17:15
months of divestment that have left Bitcoin roughly 40% below
17:19
its October peaks. Quote it goes.
17:21
It does slow down any downfall, but we still need to see more
17:26
money coming into the market, which is kind of what Bill
17:30
Miller said in the beginning as well.
17:31
Yes, we're seeing more liquidity.
17:33
Yes, we're at that 60K production, but we're not seeing
17:36
anything really to say, oh, bottom confirm the volumes
17:40
coming back. You're just kind of seeing like
17:43
that might be the bottom 60K might have been the bottom dip
17:46
that could have been the last final dip.
17:49
Now I know those are my final words here before I get pie on
17:52
my face, but it could be in hindsight, we'll see.
17:55
Maybe it does drop more. Maybe we still have we still
17:58
have a deeper discount to get here, but going further and he
18:02
goes, the caveat matters. While large holders have stepped
18:05
back in and the broader trend still points to caution, which
18:09
is literally what I'm saying right now.
18:10
It's like, hey, 60K could have been in the bottom, but at this
18:14
point, we really don't know. And you might be able to get a
18:16
better discount right now. So everyone, I think right now
18:19
is being a little cautious. We don't really know if that was
18:21
the bottom. We're all waiting and wondering.
18:24
Letting the dust settle is like, OK, can I start to deploy
18:27
capital right now at least in force?
18:30
Because if you're just DCA ING, you obviously don't care.
18:32
But if you're sitting on, if you sold at 1:26 and you're trying
18:36
to get a good entry point, be like maybe, maybe I can get a
18:40
little more coin if it dumps a little more.
18:42
Excluding exchange traded funds and exchanges, large Bitcoin
18:47
holding players have been net sellers over the past year with
18:50
more than 170,000 coins sold leaving these wallets since
18:54
mid-december. Again, we've seen an enormous
18:57
amount of selling, but the price action reflects that uneven
19:01
support since reaching a record high in October.
19:03
Bitcoin slid to around 60 K and it was trading above a 69,100 at
19:10
9:00 AM in Singapore on Wednesday.
19:12
So the stop and start behavior we're seeing from large holders,
19:17
it it, you know, it, it brings up a question like who exactly
19:22
is left to power the next sustained rally?
19:24
Or as the audience has the chat's been saying, it's like,
19:28
who is actually selling right now?
19:30
What are the reasons that they're selling that Bitcoin?
19:33
It really doesn't make sense. It's like there's literally
19:36
nothing to pinpoint. There is no story.
19:39
There's no fun headline to really pinpoint to be like,
19:43
yeah, I see why they're selling. I see why they're scared.
19:46
Remember the last drop we got the 60 K?
19:49
It wasn't because of an FTX collapse.
19:52
It wasn't because of A2020 crash.
19:55
You know, a cultural event, a global event, a Black Swan event
19:59
that made everyone panic and sell Bitcoin.
20:03
It literally just happened on a random weekday and we saw one of
20:05
the biggest liquidations literally in history on a random
20:09
day. And Bitcoin is still holding on
20:11
pretty strong. It really starts to beg the
20:16
question, you're like what exactly is going on, Who is
20:19
selling and for what reasons? And when you start to think in
20:22
those ways, the only reason I can really think of is that the
20:26
institutions at Wall Street is trying to get a good price.
20:29
They want some cheap sets. As I was saying, the end of last
20:32
year, basically 2025 was the the first year that the institutions
20:37
could get in and their starting price was 100K.
20:43
You don't think they would like a 40% discount as they're
20:46
deploying all of their products and then be ready to send it and
20:50
deploy in force. Remember, they have only dipped
20:53
their toes in the market. I think the numbers are
20:55
essentially like 1 to 3% of capital from these institutions
21:01
has entered Bitcoin. It's literally nothing that has
21:05
came into Bitcoin. So I think there's the the idea
21:08
of there just being a lot of caution right now in the markets
21:11
essentially waiting and picking their spot to get back into
21:14
Bitcoin. It seems to be again, the kind
21:18
of Dang, I'm I'm blanking on what the what that one quote is
21:25
of, you know, don't don't attribute to malice what you can
21:29
attribute to like kind of stupidity.
21:32
But anyways, I think currently, and I know, and this could be
21:37
just me using myself as a heuristic.
21:41
I am personally thinking right now at the moment of like, OK,
21:45
you know, the price got the 60 K.
21:48
It's looking like a good value to get back into Bitcoin.
21:52
I haven't really been able to buy too much Bitcoin recently
21:55
'cause I'm out of Fiat. So now I'm like, OK, let me
21:57
budget a little bit, let me save a little bit.
21:59
Let me see what my expenses are at the end of the month and
22:02
maybe I can start to deploy some capital back into Bitcoin.
22:06
Maybe I can start to get real chunks of Bitcoin instead of,
22:09
you know, my $100 buying me what, like 100, you know, less
22:12
than 100,000 sets. And I remember buying a million
22:17
sets for $100. Now I'm like, all right, hey,
22:19
look, if we drop lower, maybe I can actually pick up a
22:24
significant chunk. Maybe now is the best time to be
22:27
buying. Of course, bear markets are when
22:30
the legends are made. Everyone that you've known in
22:33
Bitcoin, anyone, if you're newer, that you kind of respect
22:36
in the space, we've all earned our stripes in the bear markets.
22:40
Bull markets are fun because your net worth goes up, you feel
22:43
richer. You know, you can point to your
22:45
friends and family and be like I told you, I was right.
22:48
The bear market is the opposite. It's where the world calls you
22:51
an idiot. It's where your friends and
22:53
family start laughing at you. But that's when you can pick up
22:58
Bitcoin on discount. Bitcoin isn't going to zero.
23:02
I think at this point we could all agree it's not going to 0.
23:07
Do we know where it's going to go from here?
23:08
No idea. No one has any idea where the
23:11
bottom will be. It really reminds me of the
23:13
Willy Wonka in reverse. You know when he's in the
23:15
elevator and it's like who knows how high this will go?
23:19
You know that that seemed it's the, it's the opposite.
23:21
It's the elevator dropping. It's like we don't know how low
23:24
this is going to go, but we know eventually it's going to return
23:27
back to all time highs. It might take longer than we
23:30
than we thought it would, but it's not going away.
23:33
If and if last year taught us anything, it's that Bitcoin is
23:39
starting to seep into every facet of the world.
23:42
And I do have a, a good kind of, I have a meme for you guys on on
23:47
the culture for today from Lynn Alden kind of explaining maybe
23:51
the the cultural dichotomy we're seeing right now.
23:55
Yes, Wall Street's are here or yes, Wall Street is here.
23:58
Yes, the institutions are here. And there is a concern over is
24:03
Bitcoin losing its soul? Is Bitcoin being Co opted by
24:07
Wall Street? Is Bitcoin not what the
24:09
cypherpunk OG thought it was? And I I venture to say the
24:15
opposite. I think Bitcoin is doing exactly
24:18
what it was designed to do. Yes, there's new suit corners in
24:22
the space. Yes, there's a lot of interest
24:24
coming from people that for better or worse, or rather to
24:28
describe it in a certain way, we may have labeled as our enemy,
24:33
but we've seen them capitulate on Bitcoin now.
24:39
So I don't think they're here to try to tank the price of
24:43
Bitcoin. I think the institutions in the
24:45
Wall Street are here to try to centralized as much Bitcoin as
24:48
possible because that's where they think they can get their
24:51
power, Try to recentralize this, try to hoard as much of this new
24:56
technology, this new money as possible.
24:59
And then this is how we can maintain our power structures.
25:02
But the majority of Bitcoin is being held by people like you in
25:05
self custody. The majority of Bitcoin isn't on
25:09
the exchanges. People forget that only a small
25:12
percentage of the bit total Bitcoin supplies on these
25:15
exchanges. And they're the ones on the
25:17
fringe that are setting the Bitcoin price.
25:20
It's the traders that are really, you want to get mad at
25:22
anyone who's the traders right now?
25:24
They always blame the traders. You know, we're out here just
25:27
trying to buy Bitcoin, store Bitcoin.
25:29
The traders are the one that's nuking everything for us.
25:31
But anyways, I'd like to see what you guys think and, and
25:34
maybe I'll cover it a little later in the show.
25:36
If, if you guys think it's bottom, wait, we'll do one in
25:39
the chat if it's bottom, two in the chat, if there's still some
25:43
more to go. Anyways, going further, like I
25:46
said earlier, I have a great Pierre Rochard clip, which it
25:52
this is, you know, some days you just got to play clips to be
25:55
like, look, I am vindicated here on what really drives Bitcoin
25:59
adoption. I've I've said a very similar
26:01
thing on the show in the news. I have an update about the
26:04
crypto market structure. It, it is what it is.
26:10
And then to wrap up the the show and the culture, I have an
26:14
interesting kind of back and forth from George Seljan and
26:18
Lynn Alden, which I I think sums up a lot of the things I've been
26:22
saying on the show. So that's the breakdown for
26:24
today's show. I'll be right back after this
26:26
commercial break. Today's episode is brought to
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se-ed.com store. All right, well guys, I'm seeing
28:40
a lot of twos in the chat. So it looks like everyone thinks
28:44
maybe everyone's just hoping for cheaper sets, but lot of twos in
28:48
the chat saying we are going lower.
28:50
Anyways, the current Bitcoin price is 67 or 66,710.
28:57
The decline from all time high or rather the discount from all
29:00
time high is 47.1%. The market cap at 1.33 trillion.
29:05
Damn dude that looks so bad. 1.33 trillion anyway as block
29:09
hype the only real universal time on planet earth that that's
29:15
a stretch. That's a stretch anyways block
29:17
hype TikTok and Xbox 936,000 and 77.
29:20
I repeat 936077. So as I was saying shout out to
29:28
Pierre Rashard. He was on a podcast.
29:29
I believe it came out yesterday night and he's making the case
29:36
of what actually drives Bitcoin, Bitcoin adoption.
29:40
And I know a lot of you in the chat you're you're probably not
29:43
going to like this, but I wholeheartedly agree with this
29:47
clip here. I think this is one of those
29:50
moments where, you know, someone like myself with a 42 IQ is
29:53
vindicated by someone with a higher IQ and it's the bell
29:56
curve, you know, left side, right side.
29:59
Agree on what really is driving Bitcoin's price.
30:02
I'll play the clip and then I will expand a little bit on it.
30:06
I'm still a believer in Bitcoin for payment, so I'm a huge
30:08
proponent of Lightning Network. I think it would be great for
30:11
humanity if we all moved off of proprietary networks and went on
30:15
to open source Sick 1 back network.
30:17
But I understand and understood a decade ago when I wrote
30:23
speculative tag, that would not be the primary adoption
30:27
mechanism, right? What the adoption mechanism that
30:30
would actually effectuate hyper bitcoinization would really be
30:34
financial, right? That the value of Bitcoin
30:37
increasing is what really attracts adoption.
30:41
That number go up. I think that on one hand, this
30:44
is repulsive to ideologues, right?
30:46
To them, it's like, no, this is, this has to be about self
30:48
sovereignty. We cannot talk about the Bitcoin
30:52
price as a, as a good bitcoiner, you should in fact not look at
30:55
price charts and never discuss the Bitcoin price.
30:57
There's kind of that, that, that view, but that runs contrary to
31:02
Austrian economics because from Austrian economics, I think
31:06
there's 2 insights. 1 is that while respecting people's
31:10
property rights, people's self-interest is not bad, I
31:15
actually still adhere to that view that people's long term
31:19
self-interest, you know, is actually something good when
31:23
they are, you know, respectful of others.
31:25
The other piece is that in Austrian economics, it's like,
31:29
hey, whatever is most profitable is it's actually a market
31:33
signal, right? That is information to society
31:38
that that thing needs to be invested in.
31:41
And so the profitability of holding Bitcoin is a massive
31:46
signal to everyone to adopt Bitcoin.
31:50
And it has nothing to do with like the self sovereignty ethos
31:54
of holding your own keys. That's irrelevant to because
31:58
like from an economic analysis, the reason to hold your own keys
32:02
is because the expected value of holding your own keys is greater
32:06
than the expected value of not holding your own keys, right?
32:08
So if you think you're going to lose all your money from a Mount
32:11
Cox, like you multiply the probability of that happening
32:14
and that's why you hold your own keys versus the probability of
32:17
you shooting yourself in the foot and locking yourself out of
32:20
your Bitcoin. Purely subjective decision
32:22
making, not ideological at all, right?
32:25
It's purely an economic calculation.
32:27
And that's that's kind of the lens through which I try to
32:31
approach Bitcoin and analyze it. And I think that's why
32:34
speculative attack has been timeless is that it's based on
32:38
1st principles economic analysis.
32:41
It's not based on like what I want Bitcoin to be, even though
32:45
it turns out that's what I want Bitcoin to be.
32:50
I love Pierre. Shout out to Pierre, he's one of
32:53
the goats. I, I will again.
32:55
There's a few people I can attribute to even being here
32:57
today, and Pierre is one of them.
33:00
Anyways, going back to the conversation, I know you guys
33:04
don't like this. I know, I know.
33:07
The Bitcoin cult, if if I can use that, loves to think of
33:12
memes and I know we all had the you know, one Bitcoin equals one
33:16
Bitcoin from Andres Antonopoulos years ago.
33:20
But in reality, like even guys, the one Bitcoin equals one
33:23
Bitcoin it like it makes sense to me because I'm a bitcoiner,
33:27
but it doesn't make sense to an average person.
33:29
It's it's self referential. It like what?
33:31
What's that even mean? Like it doesn't mean anything.
33:34
Of course one Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin.
33:35
That's like saying you know, 1 water or you know, a liter of
33:39
water equals a liter of water. It's like, OK, I get it, but
33:41
like what's it actually mean? Anyways, Again, you may not like
33:47
this, this may be heretic. What's it heretical?
33:54
This may be blasphemous. I know, I know, I know.
33:59
You want me to pander to the crowd and be like, no, like the
34:02
Bitcoin mean one Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin.
34:04
Look, I get it. I'm a bitcoiner.
34:06
I've been around the block for a while.
34:07
I I say that stuff every once in a while.
34:10
But what you do realize, especially what we're seeing
34:14
currently, I think it, it's literally a no brainer.
34:17
You guys yell at me all the time.
34:19
It's like, oh, you guys say, you know, you don't care about the
34:22
Bitcoin price, but you reference the Bitcoin price in dollars
34:26
every single day like you're a fake Bitcoin.
34:27
It's like bro, number go up is what drives people to Bitcoin.
34:32
Full stop. You want the adoption of Bitcoin
34:35
to happen. You want a circular Bitcoin
34:37
economy to happen. People need to save in that
34:41
thing. People need to hold that thing.
34:43
What is the one thing that's going to get everyone into
34:45
Bitcoin? It's hey, if I throw money at
34:47
this, my money is going to be worth more.
34:50
Number go up. The the price of Bitcoin going
34:54
up is what drives adoption. We all do the same thing.
34:59
You don't come to Bitcoin. I rather most people don't come
35:02
to Bitcoin on the idea of self sovereignty or property rights
35:07
or whatever other ideological view you have the Bitcoin.
35:10
Most people come to Bitcoin because they realize, hey look,
35:13
this thing went up X amount, maybe it'll go up to X amount
35:19
and I want to get in on it. Greed is what's driving the
35:23
adoption of Bitcoin. And as we've seen in the last
35:26
few years, there hasn't really been too many new people.
35:30
I think the only people that have been in Bitcoin for the
35:32
last 3-4 years are probably people that have been in Bitcoin
35:36
for three years before that. All the tourists have gone home.
35:39
The only people that are here are the real hardcore
35:42
ideological people. Until we get the price to go
35:45
start going back up aggressively, we might, we might
35:50
be subjugated to just being a niche thing like we need the
35:54
price to go up. Full stop.
35:56
I'm I'm completely on board with Pierre here and I'll give you
36:00
another data point. What I've noticed here at Simply
36:03
Bitcoin on the social media side, on the broadcasting side,
36:08
is essentially volatility, whether it's up or down, is good
36:12
for people coming into the space.
36:15
If the price goes up, people want to watch Bitcoin on YouTube
36:18
or Bitcoin content. People, if the price goes up,
36:22
the Twitter account goes crazy. People want to be updated on
36:25
Bitcoin. And then once they're in, the
36:28
price goes down and they come back and they're like, what the
36:30
hell is happening to the price? Like whether you like it or not,
36:33
I think basing your perspective in reality, it's very simple
36:38
psychology. People care about the price of
36:40
Bitcoin. You might not care, you might
36:42
like all the other things around Bitcoin, but people are really
36:47
focused on the price of Bitcoin. I, I've been saying for a long
36:49
time, the price of Bitcoin going up proves that we are winning.
36:54
If we go sideways and or down that, that's not making our case
37:00
for us. Price of Bitcoin drives
37:04
adoption. I want to see all of the other
37:07
things as well. I want to see people using
37:08
Bitcoin as payment. I want to see lightning payments
37:12
implemented on everything. You know, I want to see things
37:14
priced in Bitcoin. But if people aren't holding it,
37:19
if, if people don't have that psychological drive to hold
37:23
Bitcoin, whether it's greed, whether it's preserving their
37:26
purchasing power or increasing their purchasing power, then
37:30
what are we, what are we doing here?
37:31
We want more people holding Bitcoin.
37:33
And I know a lot of people like to talk the party line.
37:38
They like to speak in memes to their normally friends and
37:40
family. But the majority of people only
37:44
start paying attention to Bitcoin when the price goes up.
37:48
That's just what it is. I think it's better to be a a
37:52
pragmatist to be based in reality and understand what
37:56
actually drives the adoption of Bitcoin.
37:59
Yes, you know, people using bitcoins, cool.
38:02
But let's be honest, do the small circular economies in El
38:07
Salvador really drive this Bitcoin thing?
38:09
Globally? No one really cares.
38:12
The only thing people cared about was Bitcoin going up past
38:14
126 K. People are selfish, people are
38:18
greedy. I think now since we're in the
38:21
bear market, maybe we can be a little more realistic about what
38:24
drives the adoption of Bitcoin and and be OK with being excited
38:28
when the Bitcoin price goes up. I know we're all in it for the
38:31
tech, bro. I know we're all in it for the
38:33
tech. We're the meme.
38:34
We're in it for the tech with our with our gold chains and
38:36
stuff. We're in it for the tech with
38:38
our Lambos. No, I don't think anyone has a
38:40
Lambo. I think we're all driving old,
38:44
you know, cars older than Bitcoin.
38:46
But I'm, I, I think this is, I think this is put to rest now.
38:51
Price of Bitcoin is what drive drives adoption of Bitcoin.
38:54
I think it's a full stop. I don't think it's that
38:56
complicated. I know you like the one Bitcoin
38:58
equals one Bitcoin meme. It makes us feel good.
39:01
It makes us feel smart. Yes, I understand Fiat is
39:05
melting ice cubes and it's hard to value something when they're
39:09
devaluating and debasing the the, you know, the the meter
39:15
stick dude. No one thinks that deeply about
39:19
this. Only us monetary nerds think
39:21
about that. People just want to see their
39:25
money expand. That's what's going to drive all
39:27
of this. That's what gets everyone
39:29
excited. That's what's going to drive the
39:31
adoption of Bitcoin. It's number going up and people
39:34
seeing, hey, if I put my wealth into this thing, I am not going
39:39
to get poorer. Right now it's not making a good
39:42
argument because we're in a bear market.
39:44
But I think soon enough we will be able to say luck, man.
39:49
It's it's simple. It's simple.
39:54
You guys are funny. OK, anyways, let's keep it
39:57
moving. I will chat about the crypto
40:01
market meeting that happened yesterday.
40:05
You know, Full disclosure, nothing really happened, but we,
40:10
we could start to see where the conversation is going.
40:12
And I don't know maybe if anything at all will come out of
40:17
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43:19
As I told you yesterday, there was an update coming from the
43:28
Clarity Market Bill or Clarity Act.
43:32
There was a meeting about it. Again, it was stalled over the
43:36
stable coin yield and now they are, I guess at the very least,
43:40
being honest about it. So here's Ellen O'terrett again.
43:43
She's doing great work. I highly recommend you follow
43:46
her on Twitter if you're on Twitter.
43:47
And they had the meeting yesterday at 2:30.
43:52
This came out later in the day and it kind of explains where we
43:56
currently are, whether we are actually even going to see a
43:59
clarity act passed or not. Anyways, the tweet goes new
44:03
details from the White House stablecoin yield meeting.
44:06
Per banking crypto sources in the room, people on both sides
44:10
called the meeting productive. But again, no compromise was
44:14
reached by the end of the meeting.
44:15
However, deal specifics were discussed in more detail today.
44:19
Now, before I read the rest of the tweet, this, you know,
44:23
meeting was productive. I don't know, guys.
44:27
It sounds, it sounds like corporate doublespeak here.
44:30
To me, it sounds very similar to the negotiations we're hearing
44:35
currently coming from the Trump administration over the Iran,
44:41
Israel resolution. They always say the same thing.
44:44
Ah, meetings were productive. And then, you know, a week or so
44:47
later, a couple days later, everything just crumbles.
44:51
So I feel this is very political.
44:54
Just just putting it out there. I, I think this response here is
44:58
super political. It's trying to make everyone
45:00
feel good about where we currently are.
45:03
I personally wouldn't hold that much weight in in it actually
45:07
being productive. I think it's fitting that it's
45:10
in scare tactics or or sorry scare quotes, you know, meaning
45:14
was productive anyways. For example, banks and the
45:18
banking trades came prepared with a written set of quote
45:20
prohibition principles. There's a picture, I'll read
45:24
those for you guys, which detailed what they are willing
45:26
and not willing to compromise on when it comes to stable coin
45:29
rewards. One source pointed out a key
45:31
concession from the banks being the quote any proposed exemption
45:34
language in paragraph 2 because they were previously unwilling
45:38
to discuss any exemptions with respect to offering rewards on a
45:42
transaction based basis at all. Chief legal officer at Ripple
45:47
said quote compromises is or compromise is in the air.
45:52
There was heavy focus on so-called quote permissible
45:54
activities AKA what kind of accounts activities could be
45:57
allowed in order for crypto firms to offer rewards.
46:00
Crypto wants definitions on this to be broad.
46:03
Banks want it to be narrowed for next steps.
46:06
Further discussions between the present parties are expected to
46:09
happen in the coming days, but it is unclear whether another
46:12
meeting of this scale will take place before the end of the
46:14
month. The White House has urged both
46:16
parties to reach a deal on the matter by March 1st.
46:20
This gathering was also notably smaller, notably smaller than
46:24
the first one led by Executive Director of the President's
46:28
Crypto Council Patrick J Witt. Senate Banking Committee staff
46:32
were also present. On the crypto side, again, we
46:35
got some people from Coinbase, from Ripple, from Paxos, from
46:38
Blockchain Association and the Crypto Council, which I'm not
46:45
very optimistic about the quote UN quote crypto representation,
46:51
but this is really based around stablecoins.
46:54
So like whatever. Anyways, the banks in the room
46:57
again were Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells
47:00
Fargo City, PNC Bank, U.S. bank, along with trade groups Bank
47:03
policy, ABA bankers and ICBA. Bottom line, it was a smaller,
47:08
more productive meeting than the first and both sides are talking
47:11
about ways to solve the issues at hand, but no final resolution
47:15
has been reached yet. I mean, I love Eleanor.
47:20
I think she's doing great work. Well, I guess I don't love her.
47:23
I don't really know her, but I appreciate the work she's been
47:27
doing. I, I'm not as optimistic as, as
47:32
this take away is I, I think I, I think this whole thing's cope,
47:38
to be honest. Anyways, here is the kind of
47:42
points that the banks were using to really make their stand here,
47:47
or rather rather to make their points.
47:49
And it's titled yield and interest prohibition Principles
47:52
and the genius Act Congress specifically designed payment
47:55
stable coins to be payment instruments.
47:57
Consistent with this design, market structure legislation
48:00
should incorporate the following yield and interest prohibition
48:03
principles to limit deposit outflows that reduce the
48:06
availability of credit for communities.
48:09
Prohibition on stablecoin yield. No person may provide any form
48:12
of financial or non financial consideration to a payment
48:16
stablecoin holder in connection with the payment stablecoin
48:18
holders purchase, use, ownership, position, possession,
48:21
custody, holding or attention retention of a payment
48:24
stablecoin. Any proposed exemptions from the
48:27
prohibition must be extremely limited in scope.
48:30
So it's not to undermine the prohibition and must not drive
48:32
deposit flight that would undercut Main Street lending.
48:36
That last part, I think it's the main point and I don't think
48:40
it's a coincidence that this is the first point because as this
48:45
whole debate was sparked, you know, Bryan Armstrong from
48:49
Coinbase came out. It's like, look, I'd rather have
48:51
no bill than a shitty bill. Oh, sorry, I I said I wasn't
48:55
going to cuss. I shout out to you listening to
48:57
it right now with your parents. Apologies.
48:59
This is a family friendly show. But when the data came out, it
49:04
became very clear why they, the big banks are afraid of Bitcoin
49:10
is because stablecoins do offer a better return than a
49:13
traditional savings account. And now that stablecoins are
49:18
seemingly being LED through the door, the banks are having
49:21
competition and they're afraid of the competition.
49:24
And So what are they doing? They're trying to stop the yield
49:26
on stablecoins because then it makes their account, their
49:29
savings account irrelevant. If you can make 3% by just using
49:33
stablecoins and getting quote, UN quote stablecoin yield, like
49:36
why are you going to take the .01% from your savings account?
49:40
It just makes no sense. It makes no economic sense.
49:42
And the big banks know this. And further, if this does get
49:46
pushed through and stablecoins are allowed to offer yield,
49:51
well, that's literally trillions of dollars that the big banks
49:54
can potentially lose to private entities to their competition.
49:59
This is why this has been the biggest sticking point of this
50:03
whole conversation. Yes, they're saying it was, you
50:05
know, promising and we might see another one and we're moving
50:10
forward and everyone's here to compromise.
50:12
That is the big sticking point and I don't think that's going
50:15
to change anyways. Enforcement.
50:17
Regulators shall enforce provisions of this prohibition
50:20
and have authority to apply civil monetary penalties and to
50:23
evasion. No person shall circumvent or
50:25
evade the prohibition and regulators may issue related
50:29
regulations, representations and disclosures.
50:32
A person may not market, promote, or describe any
50:34
financial or non financial consideration provided in
50:36
connection with a payment stable coin that represents or implies
50:39
that the payment stablecoin is earned in connection with the
50:42
purchase, use, ownership, possession, custody, holding, or
50:44
retention of a payment stablecoin.
50:47
It is a deposit. It is insured by the FDIC or
50:49
NCUA. It's paid by the payment
50:51
stablecoin issuer. It's comparable to interest paid
50:54
on an insured deposit, is risk free or is paid by a person
50:58
other than the person actually paying.
51:01
And regulators shall issue regulations for accurate
51:04
disclosure of the representations above.
51:06
And then, you know, two years after enactment, the regulators
51:09
shall submit to the Senate Committee on Banking.
51:13
And you know, they'll look, they'll see if this is working
51:16
for them or not. Anyways, nothing happened
51:21
yesterday's meeting, nothing happened.
51:24
Here we are again. Nothing ever happens.
51:28
I'm, I'm really don't think at this point the clarity Act will
51:32
even get pushed through. I, I also really don't even
51:35
think at this point it's probably a good thing it gets
51:37
pushed through. Yes, we're hearing conversations
51:40
like Scott Besant saying, oh, the Bitcoin price is down
51:44
because we need regulatory clarity and we, and pushing
51:47
through the Clarity Act is of the utmost importance.
51:51
I, I really don't think that that's what's going on right
51:54
now. I, I don't think this is
51:56
probably going to go through. I think it was DOA after the
52:00
whole Brian Armstrong debacle. Now they're all coming back to
52:03
the table. It's all going to be hung up on
52:07
stablecoin yield, which to us bitcoiners were like, we don't
52:09
even care what are, what are we even doing with stablecoins?
52:15
We'll see what happens. I guess the next meeting, March
52:18
1st, we'll see if that even happened.
52:20
We'll see if they put another meeting on the books before
52:23
that. I'm I, I don't at this point,
52:26
you guys know how I view this side.
52:28
I don't think that's going to happen.
52:30
I think it's being held up because the big banks don't want
52:33
to see this happen. They're afraid of competition.
52:37
There hasn't been much free market competition against the
52:40
big banks for a long time. And now that they are being
52:43
faced with this new competition, they're going to use their
52:47
regulatory mode as best as they can to protect themselves and
52:51
their business models, which from a business perspective, you
52:53
can't even blame them. But from a freedom maxi, from a
52:58
will this actually help Bitcoin perspective?
53:00
You're like, of course, of course, this is where we are.
53:04
So that's the update. It's a really a nothing burger.
53:08
Nothing, nothing ever happened, guys, nothing ever happens.
53:12
Here we are at 60 K Bitcoin. We were promised regulatory
53:17
clarity. We were promised 150K Bitcoin.
53:21
We were promised the US government will buy Bitcoin and
53:25
nothing ever happened, boys. Nothing ever happened.
53:30
I guess. I guess later on in the day,
53:33
maybe later on in the week, we will we will give out fell for
53:36
it again awards Bitcoiners fell for it again with politics.
53:41
We'll see if anything comes out of DC that is actually
53:43
beneficial to us Bitcoiners. At this point I'm taking the
53:47
under. I don't think anything coming
53:50
out of DC in regards to Bitcoin will be beneficial to anyone but
53:57
the incumbents already in power. Anyone but the big banks.
54:02
We know how this works. They will try to neuter Bitcoin
54:07
or it's stable coins, I guess crypto as much as possible.
54:10
This I think is another attempt of them trying to control
54:14
Bitcoin via, you know, legalese. There's two attacks going on in
54:20
my opinion. You know, just thinking through
54:22
this, there's two attacks going on.
54:23
Wall Street dumps the price of Bitcoin so that they can acquire
54:26
as much Bitcoin as possible, try to centralized a lot of the
54:29
holdings. And on the other hand, we have
54:32
those very same institutions using the law to try to maintain
54:39
the regulatory amount. Like crony capitalism at at its
54:43
finest here, ladies and gents. It is what it is.
54:50
I guess they're just giving us a discount here.
54:52
Just continue to stack Bitcoin, continue to accumulate that
54:56
Bitcoin, continue to take Bitcoin into self custody.
54:59
This is how we win. All right, guys, let's get into
55:03
the last portion of today's show.
55:06
I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
55:09
Technologies. Fueled by clean energy, Hive has
55:12
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55:16
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55:24
performance. At Hive, you've got dual
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engines, Bitcoin and AI humming, roaring, accelerating and
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unison. They're lean and mean, they're
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green and clean, and they're rewriting the playbook on
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sustainable digital infrastructure.
55:38
You can catch the latest buzz at Hive Digital Tech or at Hive
55:42
digitaltech.com. Yeah, Jack, you guys are funny.
55:52
Anyways, anyways, I I forgot to forgot the plug.
55:56
Our boys over at Bitcoin Magazine.
55:58
Guys, we are going to a Las Vegas to the Venetian April 27th
56:03
and 29th to participate in the biggest Bitcoin conference in
56:09
the world. Go get your tickets today
56:12
because the prices will will rise and you guys will complain
56:15
and be like I wanted to go now the prices are too expensive.
56:18
If you use the promo code simply you will get 10% off.
56:21
Hey, maybe you just buy one and then you flip it for more money.
56:25
Maybe that's how we get money. Maybe that's how we start making
56:28
money again. Anyways, go to the website is
56:31
2026 dot B dot TC. Get yourself a ticket.
56:38
Come hang out with us in Vegas at the Venetian.
56:42
Anyways, here is this exchange George Seljin, who I'm sure you
56:50
guys are familiar with. I feel like most big corners are
56:53
familiar with him, but if you're not George Seljin, he is, you
56:58
know, I would say he's very, he's very good with economics.
57:05
He doesn't really, he doesn't really like Bitcoin.
57:09
It's like one of those Venn diagrams where like he overlaps
57:12
with a lot of our perspectives, but he's not the biggest fan of
57:17
Bitcoin. He actually really just doesn't
57:23
like Bitcoin, but he is a respected, I guess, quote UN
57:26
quote respected economist and and people listen to what he's
57:29
saying. Anyways, I think this is a good
57:32
summary of what a lot of people are saying.
57:34
Here's George Salgin. He goes.
57:36
I know that there are still some honest to goodness quote.
57:39
Let's have a stateless money bitcoiners out there and bless
57:42
all their hearts. But damn, I hate the creepolas
57:46
who have turned Bitcoin into a crass get rich quick scheme no
57:50
less infested by shysters and than any other.
57:56
I do 10 I I I kind of agree with the Jake.
57:58
I'm not going to lie. The suit coiners came in I I was
58:04
even saying on the show. It makes me feel weird that
58:07
Larry Fink is on our side, or at the very least publicly saying
58:11
nice things about Bitcoin. It makes me feel weird that JP
58:14
Morgan, or rather Jamie Dimon is out here saying somewhat nice
58:18
things about Bitcoin, And at the time you guys saw me having an
58:22
existential crisis on the show. It's like on the one thing,
58:25
like, are they going to pump our bags?
58:28
I'm OK with them pumping our bags.
58:30
On the other side. On the other hand, I just kept
58:34
thinking, I'm like, weren't these the people that we were
58:38
trying to kind of disintermediate?
58:41
Of course, Bitcoin is for enemies.
58:43
Bitcoin is for anyone and I was like, I don't know this.
58:49
This does make me feel weird. And I think now that we haven't
58:53
seen them pump our bags, we can re evaluate be like, man, maybe
58:58
it wasn't a good thing to have the institutions come in.
59:01
Maybe they're not going to pump our bags, but maybe this is just
59:04
bear market things. Anyways, Lynn Alden's response
59:07
is perfect. And here's a meme for you guys.
59:10
Lynn Alden goes The good news is they didn't quote, turn Bitcoin
59:15
into anything because Bitcoin itself is unchanged during that
59:19
time. These are simply shifting
59:22
narratives around a rather fixed protocol.
59:25
In other words, the Fiat system has shaped itself around
59:28
Bitcoin. And I forget what this cartoon's
59:32
called. Is it invincible?
59:34
Invincible and it's a kid. It's like how do we change
59:37
Bitcoin and the dad. That's a neat part.
59:39
You don't. Now I've said this a few times
59:42
on the show, but when I read this tweet, you know this last
59:47
part, there's are simply shifting narratives around a
59:50
fixed protocol. It didn't make me think of the
59:55
idea. Not necessarily a Bitcoin being
59:58
a Trojan horse. But just that idea of a fixed
1:00:02
protocol, you know, it's unchanging.
1:00:04
Yes, there's been a lot of conversations about, oh,
1:00:07
bitcoins, you know, losing its ethos.
1:00:09
Is hold on, is core compromised? Are they changing the code?
1:00:16
Is there ambitious devs that are trying to change the core to fit
1:00:20
some kind of narrative? I really don't necessarily think
1:00:27
that that's the case. It does look to me like Bitcoin
1:00:29
is a fixed protocol. Bitcoin is just Bitcoin is
1:00:33
Bitcoin is what it is. And yes, we are starting to see
1:00:37
the institutions come in and yes, we are seeing those very
1:00:41
same institutions. If the Clarity Act kind of
1:00:45
compromise is any vantage into what they're trying to do, Yes,
1:00:51
they are trying to use the law to maybe form their own view
1:00:56
onto what Bitcoin is. Bitcoin just keeps chugging
1:00:59
along new block, you know, the price does what it does.
1:01:03
Miners are hashing, people are running nodes.
1:01:06
And yes, we are in this weird time where we have the
1:01:13
institutions embracing us. They may not fully understand
1:01:17
what Bitcoin is like we do I I think they do understand
1:01:21
Bitcoin, but obviously they're not as far down the rabbit hole
1:01:24
as us. But I don't think Bitcoin has
1:01:27
necessarily lost its ethos because they can't really do
1:01:30
anything besides just hoarding a bunch of coin.
1:01:32
And then they can build whatever they want on top of the coin
1:01:35
that they own. And maybe that is the fork in
1:01:38
the road. Maybe that does mean there will
1:01:40
be fully surveilled Bitcoin and then Bitcoin in self custody
1:01:45
that we use peer-to-peer. Maybe there is a 2 tiered
1:01:49
Bitcoin system being created as we speak, but it does seem as
1:01:54
Lynn Holden was saying, it's a Fiat system wrapping around
1:01:59
Bitcoin and Bitcoin is the heartbeat.
1:02:01
Bitcoin is the core of that. And in time, I think we will
1:02:06
see, well, I hope we will see that the, the check and balance
1:02:14
mechanisms that is Bitcoin will affect the traditional financial
1:02:19
system. Now obviously Bitcoin is tiny.
1:02:23
Bitcoin is small in terms of capital compared to all of the
1:02:27
world's capital or financial markets like Bitcoin is tiny or
1:02:31
currently 1.33 trillion like it, it's not even in the top thirty
1:02:36
of all assets anymore. Maybe it's like 28th or 29th
1:02:40
right now, like Bitcoin is tiny, but you're still seeing the the
1:02:44
gravity of Bitcoin. It is not only capturing the
1:02:48
imagination of Wall Street or anyone in finance, but it is
1:02:53
also like it's gravity is forcing traditional finance to
1:03:00
adopt certain Bitcoin narratives or adopt the Bitcoin idea.
1:03:05
And maybe it's like 2 magnets right now and they're fighting
1:03:07
each other. But at a certain point, you
1:03:09
know, Bitcoin will engulf the traditional financial system.
1:03:12
That's probably decades down the line.
1:03:15
I think there's a lot of resistance to Bitcoin currently.
1:03:20
But I do agree with the sentiment.
1:03:22
I don't think Bitcoin has failed.
1:03:24
I don't think Bitcoin's dead. I don't think it's been Co
1:03:26
opted. There is an attempt to Co opt
1:03:28
it, but I think we will see very shortly that the traditional
1:03:33
financial system is going to have to morph themselves around
1:03:36
Bitcoin. They're going to have to rebuild
1:03:38
themselves on top of Bitcoin. And is that not what Bitcoiners
1:03:42
have been saying for the longest time?
1:03:45
It reminded me of the how Finney quote, you know, literally days
1:03:49
after Bitcoin was created, Bitcoin will be $10 million and
1:03:52
it Bitcoin transactions will be as rare today or rare will be as
1:03:57
rare in the future as they are today.
1:03:59
It's only going to be high-powered settlement and then
1:04:02
everyone else will be interacting on top of it.
1:04:05
Maybe most people won't even know they're interacting with
1:04:07
Bitcoin. And when that comes, that's when
1:04:09
we really do win when people are just using it just to use it
1:04:12
because you know, their friend want to get paid in it because
1:04:16
their dollar is pegged to it through Zelle or something like
1:04:21
that. Whatever, whatever, whatever the
1:04:22
mechanism is. So I don't think Bitcoin has
1:04:25
been Co opted. I think there is an attempt to
1:04:27
Co opt it as there has always been attempts to Co opt Bitcoin.
1:04:31
It is interesting though, that the whole, you know, Roger VIR
1:04:34
hijacked Bitcoin be cash kind of conversation is starting to pop
1:04:39
back up again now that Wall Street is here.
1:04:44
I, I just am like, dude, maybe it's because I'm a boomer now.
1:04:49
Maybe it's because I'm unk here. You know, I'm an old man now,
1:04:55
but it's, it's like time is a flat circle.
1:05:00
You know, the older we get, the longer we're in Bitcoin, the
1:05:04
more of the same storylines kind of pop up and Bitcoin just chugs
1:05:08
along and does its thing. We've seen this before.
1:05:13
We will see it again and we're currently seeing it in a moment.
1:05:18
How do we fix this? You guys acquire more Bitcoin.
1:05:23
This is the only game. Just keep acquiring Bitcoin.
1:05:25
All the other stuff is noise. Just keep saving, buying
1:05:28
Bitcoin. This is how we win.
1:05:31
It's by us getting a bigger portion of the pie.
1:05:33
So these prices right now, these discounts are a blessing.
1:05:37
Honestly. I know someone in the chat said,
1:05:40
damn, the bear mark is completely broken off the now
1:05:43
dude, I'm just I'm I'm burnt out.
1:05:45
More like it's the beginning of the year.
1:05:49
I really want some like banger news stories because that's what
1:05:52
it's like fun to talk about on the show.
1:05:54
It's like, yo, all right, check this out.
1:05:58
But the optimistic view of all of this is like, hey, we get
1:06:01
cheaper Bitcoin. I was going to say Bitcoin and
1:06:05
discount. We get Bitcoin on discount.
1:06:10
I at this point I'm kind of like, I kind of hope Nico's
1:06:14
right. I kind of hope we get 25 K
1:06:17
Bitcoin because then we could stack chunks of Bitcoin.
1:06:21
That sounds so much more fun right now.
1:06:22
Like if we are in bear market territory, if we are are in not
1:06:27
even fully seeing the entire bear market, not even fully
1:06:31
experiencing this dip. Mike, let's just get it over
1:06:36
with. Let's get let's hit the bottom,
1:06:40
let's go lower. Let's get some coin again.
1:06:43
Let's, let's get some good chunks of coin.
1:06:45
Let's make our dollar go further while everyone's freaking out of
1:06:49
Bitcoin going down. I'm like, damn, my dollar is
1:06:52
going that much further. I'm like, damn, you know, $100
1:06:56
is actually buying. I wouldn't say significant
1:07:00
anymore, but like buys me a lot more Bitcoin than it did four
1:07:03
months ago. I'm like, all right, man, you
1:07:06
guys want to play this game, Give me the cheap Bitcoin.
1:07:12
I'm just like, let's just get it over with.
1:07:14
You guys know me, I'm an extremist.
1:07:17
I'm an accelerationist, for better or worse.
1:07:20
I, I can't help myself. I'm an extremist in everything I
1:07:22
do. I'm like, let's just, let's just
1:07:24
get there. If the dump's not done yet,
1:07:28
let's get to the bottom, let's get some cheap sats and let's
1:07:33
start the party over. Like, come on, like, you know,
1:07:38
CZ, you want to dump Bitcoin? Give me cheap sets, Jimmy
1:07:43
Diamond. You want cheap Bitcoin?
1:07:44
I want cheap Bitcoin too. Larry Fink.
1:07:48
You want to dump it on my head? Thank you very much.
1:07:51
You're giving me cheap Bitcoin. That's just where I'm at, guys.
1:07:54
I'm like, at this point I'm like, yeah, just send it.
1:07:57
Just freaking send it. Call in today.
1:08:01
Forget Vindy K, dude, I I on it. Look, Ron, you know, I'm, I'm
1:08:05
speaking to just Ron here today. I really don't think it's going
1:08:09
to go lower than 50K, but I'm just saying like, if it's going
1:08:13
to can we just like freaking, you know, press the sell button,
1:08:18
Let's get us down there. Let's get this over with, let's
1:08:21
get some cheap sets and we could start again.
1:08:24
You know, we could start a run up to whatever the next all time
1:08:28
high is man top deal. It's the normal pleb minimum
1:08:32
Bitcoin goal she'll be while things are cheaper.
1:08:35
The goal is always the same goal.
1:08:41
Get to a coin. If you can't get to a coin, you
1:08:45
know, break it down. Get the 10 million sets, get to
1:08:50
a 25,000,000 sets, get to half a coin like break it down to
1:08:56
whatever makes sense to you. But also what, what people told
1:09:03
me when I got into Bitcoin, specifically my friend American
1:09:07
Huddle is he would always say something on the lines of, look,
1:09:14
pick a goal, make it ambitious, but make it realistic.
1:09:20
Emphasis on the ambitious part, but realistic, obviously
1:09:24
realistic. Like, you know, I could say I
1:09:25
want 1000 coins. I don't even know what 1000
1:09:28
coins is. Like I could say I want to buy
1:09:29
1000 coins in three months. It's like I'm, I dude, I, I
1:09:34
don't even know what 1000 coins is right now.
1:09:35
What's 1000 coins? Someone do the math for me.
1:09:38
What's 1000 coins currently? It's like I'm, I'm, what's that
1:09:40
70 million? It's like I'm not going to get
1:09:42
70 million in the next three months.
1:09:44
I don't, I don't know how to do that.
1:09:46
That's probably a personal issue here, but make it ambitious.
1:09:51
I don't know what your stack is, but it should be like you should
1:09:55
want to be better. It should be high enough where
1:09:57
you want to make yourself better, where it makes you want
1:09:59
to make more money, where it makes you, you know, eat ramen
1:10:03
and not buy new clothes or whatever.
1:10:06
Whatever it is for you, man, I, I really, I can't tell you where
1:10:10
you are in life. Only you know that, But I, I
1:10:14
think it's the same thing we've always said like their, their
1:10:17
goals and you should have short term goals and you should have
1:10:20
long term goals, but the goals are always the same.
1:10:25
I think if you've been around long enough, it's like try to
1:10:28
get a coin and hold on to that one and continue stacking.
1:10:32
That's kind of becoming a millionaire cost you 660.
1:10:39
OK, I guarantee if you're in Saint Demiro, you know, I love I
1:10:47
love the optimism, but you guys stopped watching in the meme
1:10:53
review like you don't blame me. Don't blame me here.
1:10:56
I know you guys. I know the vocal minority in the
1:10:59
chat, the loud minority in the chat.
1:11:02
Love the meme review. The majority of people didn't.
1:11:05
OK, hey, all right, maybe I'll bring.
1:11:09
Maybe I'll bring maybe I'll do one this week.
1:11:12
OK, how about that? Actually, how about this Friday
1:11:15
we'll do a meme review. OK, so tag me on Twitter.
1:11:23
Wait, let me let me double check.
1:11:25
Let me let me not put my foot in my mouth because if I if I if I
1:11:28
say we're going to do it and then I happen to have a guest or
1:11:32
something, you guys are going to yell at me and be like, oh, up
1:11:35
to you. Rug pulled us on the meme
1:11:36
review. Let me see.
1:11:40
OK, All right, Friday confirmed Friday, I will do a meme review.
1:11:46
Tag me on Twitter at Optimus Fields.
1:11:50
They better be some banger memes because if I don't get banger
1:11:54
memes and I'm going to rug pool the meme review.
1:11:56
OK, I'm telling you up front. All right, are we chuds?
1:12:01
Yes, you are. Memes in one minute.
1:12:04
You know I like this. Memes in one minute chat, one
1:12:08
minute, 1 minute chart. OK, all right guys, I'm done.
1:12:13
I'm done. I will see you tomorrow.
1:12:19
Have a good rest of your day. On that note, it's been good.
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Peace out guys. Today's episode was brought to
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you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
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mission to enable financial independence.