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AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | WASDE Whiplash · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Hey ho report day.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Today, an abbreviated conversation just between you and me, beloved viewer.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: I've actually got some traveling to do.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna hustle on home to my baby.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: But before I take flight, I'll give you the highlights from today's WASDI report.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: From behind the intrepid trapezoidal microphone of Ag Bull South, your pal Davis Michelson for the final day here in Nesvik Towers, Nashville, Tennessee, Music City, USA.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely love it down here.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: When I get home, I'm gonna need I'm gonna need to put my fat pants on.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm afraid though.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's the food is just too darn good down here.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Kansas City food is awesome, but I've learned to control myself there.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Here in Nashville, it's a it's a whole different story.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's a scene, man.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: It's a scene.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: I tried the hot chicken, all sorts of stuff.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Delicious, delicious.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't find anything that I'd send back.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Hope you're having a great day today.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's uh we're coming to you at uh 12:30 p.m.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Central Time.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: So the markets are not closed yet, but it's been a rodeo in some of the markets today.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna detail, I'll take you through the tail of the ticker up to this point.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about what the WASD delivered for us.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about the market's response, and then we'll talk about once we get to that point, where we are.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: And once again, 12:30 p.m.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: So we are nowhere near settled out just yet.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: There's, you know, a half an hour left for the livestock, and just short of an hour left for the grains to trade.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Who knows what might happen.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's a Friday, and you know, we'll uh we'll check back on on Monday.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get back to a full-on market conversation.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: I've got Chris Winward from Swift Trading on Monday.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to be a good one.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be able to digest some of the details, give him the weekend to think it through and let the markets kind of think it through as well, and we'll see where we are on Monday.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Let me begin by urging you to take your marketing by the horns.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Maximize your chance for success with AgBull Intel.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: Visit AgBull.com on your www or call eight five five-seven three seven farm.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's eight fifty-five-seventy three seven, followed by the word farm, or simply visit agbol.com.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: We've got some daily sales to report once again today.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Private exporters report a flash sale.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: 264,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico for the 26-27 marketing year.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: And thanks to the Labor Day holiday on Monday, we've got delayed export sales out today.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans both blew through the top end of their respective ranges of expectations in today's delayed export sales report.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Corn came in just above 2 million metric tons.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Beans, nearly 2.5 million metric tons.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat export sales for the report week below the bottom end of expectations, below year ago and below week ago.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans, outstanding export sales report this week.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat, not so much.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'm convinced it's got a whole lot to do with price.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: And uh there was some information in the WASD on wheat as well that uh it's it's not gonna help us.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go to the tale of the ticker today.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans and wheat were in duck and cover mode in the first hour of trade, with soybeans giving back all of what was gained in yesterday's upside swing.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: As the grain side explored short-term lows, cattle futures ventured into near-term highs with feeders leading gains.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were under pressure in early trade today.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: And just ahead of USDA's data dump, corn, beans, and wheat were all under pressure.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now we got the data out at 11 p.m.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Central or 11 a.m.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: excuse me, central time.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: And it goes a little something like this in today's WASDI, USDA cut the national corn yield estimate to 178.5 bushels per acre, pressing production down to 1.567 million bushels.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: The agency raised the average on-farm corn price 30 cents to$4.80 per bushel.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: This being the second consecutive month of yield cuts to corn and tighter stocks, those numbers on the corn side get a bullish read.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: USDA left the national soybean yield estimate nearly flat, actually raising it by one-tenth of a bushel, now at 52.8 bushels per acre.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: That supported a mild rise in overall soybean production.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: That now at 4.535 million bushels, although a rise in the export estimate pulled ending stocks down to 310 million bushels.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: The average on-farm soybean price raised 60 cents to 12 bucks even.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: The soybean numbers also get a generally bullish read.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: World production and ending stocks captured the headline for wheat in today's report.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: production exports and ending stocks were unchanged.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Although the average on-farm price did pop 20 cents higher to$6.40 per bushel.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Bigger crops in Australia, Canada, and Ukraine gave the wheat data a mildly bearish read.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Too much wheat in the world.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: It's a story that we've heard before.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now, as I said, we're uh we're five minutes in.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: So now 12.35 p.m.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Central Time.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: These are not settlements, but uh I just want to show you where we're at because at one point corn was six, seven cents higher right after the report here.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: And as I said, it was the the numbers gave us a generally bullish read, but the market said, yeah, uh not so much today.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: December corn presently at 1235 Central Time, down six and one half cents at 527.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: This according to plus 500 T4 software, my crew and I, as you may know, all use plus 500 T4 software for up to the minute quotes, futures and options, and a host of dandy features.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: My T4 software says D scorn.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, languishing now seven cents lower, 526 and three quarters.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: November beans, ooh, down 38 cents, 1294.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: We're on the south side of 13 all of a sudden here with USDA's data dump.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean meal lower, soybean oil lower.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Let's see, one, two, three, four, fifth verse.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: Same as the first.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: Under pressure.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: The uh December Chicago wheat down 22 cents, 7.19 and a quarter.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: And your December KC wheat down 27 and a quarter thus far on the day.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: These are not settlements, gang.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: 7.91 and one half.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And now we're on the south side of 13 in the November beans and in the December KC wheat, the south side of eight bucks there.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the livestock, a little bit better news there for you cattle producers.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: October feeder cattle up$5.55,$333.12.5 presently.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: October fat cattle,$2.20 higher at$2.202.5.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Looking out to the D's fat cattle.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: We're three bucks higher,$222.60 on that.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: And over to the Lean Hogs, some pressure to the tune of about 2% on the day.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: October Lean Hog features down a buck 42 and a half at 81.72 and a half.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: The December contract here moving ahead of one o'clock is let's see, down a buck 65, 72, 72 or so, and some change.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: So there was actually a fair amount of movement because corn popped higher.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: It looked like it was it was going to hang right in there after this report from USDA, and then decided to head southward presently below below unchanged in negative territory.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: We're negative territory across the board.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's a good day to have a short show and uh just kind of let things reset a little bit and uh give it the weekend to sort of sort itself out a little bit.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: We'll we'll come back on Monday and and see see where we're at.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: Uh a couple other thoughts.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: This from Weesmeyer.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: The reports today produced contrasting signals across agriculture.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: Sorghum supplies contracted further, rice inventories increased despite a slightly smaller crop, and larger world wheat stocks tempered an unchanged U.S.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: wheat balance sheet.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: For livestock, USDA lowered beef and pork production forecasts while also reducing cattle and hog prices, showing that a smaller output alone is insufficient to offset weaker demand.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now, in addition to all of this, just a little weather news for Wheat Country.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat Country looking at good chances for rain in the next two weeks, basically, with several different weather models in agreement that beneficial rain is on the way.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's in key wheat growing areas of the nation.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: More immediately here, the National Weather Service calls for dry and breezy conditions to bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern and central high plains through Saturday, where fuels remain largely receptive.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: Severe thunderstorms possible across portions of central Nebraska to the upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like the uh showers and thunderstorms have moved off from the Kansas City area.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: I hope it's cooler back home because it has been hot in Nashville this week, around 90 degrees and uh just a little sticky.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's been hot down here.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: There's there should be relief on the way.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: And as you can see here on the map, I'm looking over here to my left.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: We've got some red back into Texas, over into New Mexico, and yeah, a little cooler temperatures up north, though.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: So everybody enjoy that.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: You it's it's gonna be great.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: A couple thoughts.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's Friday, September 11th.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, I just want to preach at you just a little bit before I before I let you go.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: September 11 today.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I I bet you've already thought of this, but I think it's important to remember where you were when you heard that day, what was going on.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: Talk about it with somebody, and the and the reason that I think that's important, we got to keep the memory alive for those first responders who sacrificed themselves for those who lost their lives.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, just for showing up to work that day.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: And for a nation that unified in collective concern and dare I say, even a bit of outrage, we were unified that day and in the weeks that followed.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: That unity has long since taken the backseat to political theater and a pervasive us versus those people who don't agree with us mindset.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: And that that helps no one.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: That helps none of us.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Tell the story of 9-11 to your kids.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: They they probably don't understand what a significant moment that was.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: Talk about it with friends and neighbors this weekend.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: Remember the fallen and remember how that day made you feel.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: My own my own story, briefly, I was out shooing horses that morning.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: I had had an early morning, got a got a good start on it, and was back by mid-morning.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: And at some point there was a message on the answering machine.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, back in the 1900s, kids, they they used to have these little machines with tapes in them, and your mother-in-law could call you and leave a message, and then you could just answer it later, or or not at all.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: My mother-in-law had called, left a message, said, Oh, are you guys seeing this?
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: This is crazy.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: You you gotta turn on your TV.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: So I flipped on the TV just in time to see the second plane hit.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the world was was forever changed, things are completely different now.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy stuff.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's important to tell people the story of September 11th of 9-11, because like I said, the world hasn't been the same since.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's been a good week.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: If you if you've got some extra time this weekend and and want to kind of flip through uh just a quick review of of what we learned this week, Tuesday, I had Eric Snodgrass, atmospheric scientist from Nutrion, and from him we learned that the Earth, in fact, is a spinning ball, and you may have to go further north this winter than Minnesota if you're hoping to find decent snowmobiling snow.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: He suggested Canada.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: And speaking of snowmobiling in Canada, my old buddy Greg Mulhern from Newell Machinery, great conversation with Greg about upstream manufacturing, trends that he's noticing in agriculture from his perspective in the in the industrial manufacturing sector.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: He's he's been snowmobiling in Canada, and uh he also wanted us to know data centers may keep Cedar Rapids hotels full for the next five, possibly seven years, maybe more.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: There's that.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: And yesterday, of course, we had that ever so important conversation with Kathy Egan-Spicer.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: Farm safety precautions.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: They're okay, they're not just to save life and limb for the individual, for the farmer.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: We also talked about the ripples that an injury can send through the family, the community, everyone around an injured person who's suddenly had a horrible, horrible accident, as many of these often are.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody's affected.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: And Kathy has been, well, it's been 44 years, and Kathy is still thinking about her father's accident, and she's out there pounding the pavement to get the message out.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: And uh we're we're glad that she was with us.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: We had some great shows, a lot of info, a lot of fun in the programs that we that we brought to you this week.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to, I think I'm about ready to sign off here.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say thanks to Trade the News, first of all, for keeping my entire squad on top of the news.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: Trade the news is news you can use.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: Use Trade the News for useful news.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: And we can catch you up on the markets and everything you need to know today and every day at Agbol.com.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: Take your marketing by the hoons with Agbol Intel.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbol.com or give us a call at 855-737 Farm.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell back first thing Monday morning to get you ready for the day.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll talk markets.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna we're gonna chop through some of this and see where the markets want to be on Monday.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: Chris Winwood from Swift Trading Monday Afternoon on AgSquawk, and now I'm going to Kansas City.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: Kansas City, here I come.