Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 5/24/26: Neocons FREAK As Trump Says Iran Deal INCHES Away

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5/24/26: Neocons FREAK As Trump Says Iran Deal INCHES Away · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Sunday morning. We have a special
0:03
Speaker 1: edition here at breaking point. To know there's a lot
0:05
Speaker 1: going on for our prem subscribers about our shift over
0:07
Speaker 1: to supercast, but we did have to jump on with
0:09
Speaker 1: our great friend doctor Streita Parsi to break down this
0:13
Speaker 1: potential new deal between Donald Trump and the Iranians. After
0:17
Speaker 1: significant regional effort, it does appear at this moment. I
0:20
Speaker 1: guess is nine a m. On Sunday that a deal
0:23
Speaker 1: may be imminent with all of the caveats that that entails.
0:26
Speaker 1: So doctor Parsi, thank you so much for joining us.
0:28
Speaker 2: We APPRESI, thank you.
0:30
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and start off. Crystal. Can we see
0:32
Speaker 1: the truth? I can read it for everybody. I will
0:36
Speaker 1: skip the long introduction names of all of the foreign
0:40
Speaker 1: leaders that were name checked here by Donald Trump. But
0:43
Speaker 1: what we see here is I am in the Oval Office.
0:45
Speaker 1: We had just had a very good call all of
0:47
Speaker 1: these different leaders. Here's what he says is that concerning
0:50
Speaker 1: these Omic Republicans wrong, All things related to a memorandum
0:53
Speaker 1: of understanding pertaining to peace and agreement has largely been negotiated.
0:58
Speaker 1: Subject to the final finals between the USA the Islamic
1:02
Speaker 1: Republic of Iran and other countries. Separately, I had a
1:05
Speaker 1: call with Prime Minister Bibing at Yahoo of Israel, which
1:07
Speaker 1: likewise went very well. Final aspects and details of the
1:10
Speaker 1: deal are being discussed, in addition to many other elements
1:13
Speaker 1: of the agreement. The Straight of Hormuz will be opened.
1:17
Speaker 1: Thank you for your attention to this matter. So doctor Parci,
1:20
Speaker 1: just give us a breakdown here of what you note
1:22
Speaker 1: from the Trump truth and some of the emerging details
1:25
Speaker 1: around this so called memory of a memorandum of understanding,
1:28
Speaker 1: which we believe will last some sixty days.
1:32
Speaker 2: So first of all, there's no misspellings, there is no
1:36
Speaker 2: grammatical errors, there's no attempt at humiliating any side. He's
1:42
Speaker 2: got the title and the names of each of these
1:45
Speaker 2: different world leaders. Correct. And I'm mentioning this because before
1:50
Speaker 2: we have seen on numerous occasions true social posts by
1:55
Speaker 2: the President and which he says, hey, we're really close
1:57
Speaker 2: and it's not a serious post. It's time to work
2:02
Speaker 2: well with the markets, to manipulate the markets. It doesn't
2:06
Speaker 2: have any indication that anyone else has reviewed to the
2:09
Speaker 2: post in any way, shape or form. This clearly was
2:12
Speaker 2: not written by him alone, although he doesn't have his
2:14
Speaker 2: flavor to it as well. Towards the end. More importantly, though,
2:19
Speaker 2: when you take a look at all the different world
2:22
Speaker 2: leaders that he consulted with before coming to this conclusion,
2:26
Speaker 2: it's very important because it shows, I mean, what he's
2:30
Speaker 2: trying to do over here is to say, look, we're
2:32
Speaker 2: doing this in tandem with a lot of these different
2:35
Speaker 2: world leaders. And it is true many of them have
2:38
Speaker 2: been pushing very hard for this. Some of them have
2:41
Speaker 2: played a crucial role in the background to mediate this
2:45
Speaker 2: compromise that is being reached Pakistan and cut Out in
2:49
Speaker 2: particular in the later phases of this. But it also
2:52
Speaker 2: gives them a certain degree of protection. Here in Washington,
2:55
Speaker 2: we saw the massive meltdown of warmongers last night when
3:00
Speaker 2: this was first announced, and even before it was announced,
3:02
Speaker 2: when they were getting noticed that this was coming, they were,
3:06
Speaker 2: you know, they were just in a public panic. And
3:09
Speaker 2: this is despite the fact that they got two wars,
3:11
Speaker 2: they got every conceivable sanction in place, they got the
3:14
Speaker 2: worst rhetoric from Trump, they got efforts to you know,
3:18
Speaker 2: assassinate leaders inside the countries, and the weapons entry. There's
3:22
Speaker 2: nothing on the wish list of these warmongers that have
3:25
Speaker 2: not been tried and it has failed miserably. Yet they're
3:29
Speaker 2: in a panic over the fact that their miserable failure
3:32
Speaker 2: is now going to be abandoned and going to go
3:34
Speaker 2: in a different direction. But in that context for him
3:38
Speaker 2: to be able to say, look, I'm doing it because
3:40
Speaker 2: all of these regional leaders are asking me to do this,
3:43
Speaker 2: it's very important not just to be able to show
3:45
Speaker 2: the regional anchoring of this, but also to be able
3:48
Speaker 2: to deflect of the criticism that invariabill become, which is
3:52
Speaker 2: you abandon Israel. Well, perhaps Israel had abandoned the United
3:57
Speaker 2: States by you know, manipulating the United States into this
4:00
Speaker 2: were in the first place. But nevertheless, Israel is not
4:02
Speaker 2: the only country in the region that the United States
4:05
Speaker 2: has some form of a partnership with, and it cannot
4:07
Speaker 2: be the only country that counts. And he's there listing
4:10
Speaker 2: all of these different countries that are going or telling
4:13
Speaker 2: him to go in this direction, seek a piece put
4:16
Speaker 2: an end to this conflict, because it's devastating for the
4:19
Speaker 2: entire region and for the global economy. So all of this,
4:22
Speaker 2: I think, in and of itself, was showing this is
4:24
Speaker 2: much more serious than the previous instances, and then we
4:28
Speaker 2: do have confirmation both from some of these leaders in
4:32
Speaker 2: the region as well as from the Iranians that something
4:34
Speaker 2: is very innate.
4:35
Speaker 3: So let's talk about what we know the contours of
4:39
Speaker 3: the deal. You have a great piece up at your
4:42
Speaker 3: substack which is called Tree to PARSI.
4:44
Speaker 4: Eponymously name and is that the word? Is that the
4:46
Speaker 4: way you use it?
4:47
Speaker 3: In any case, thanks, everybody should go and subscribe to
4:50
Speaker 3: see your analysis there, which elaborates on your important posts
4:53
Speaker 3: that you also put on Twitter that we all follow
4:55
Speaker 3: very closely. So in any case, you've got a great
4:57
Speaker 3: headline here we'remongers in meltdown a Trump Harald's Iran deal.
5:02
Speaker 3: And you talk about some of the reported details. You
5:06
Speaker 3: say the full details remain somewhat unclear, but according to
5:08
Speaker 3: reporting by Onlage media, much of which I've independently corroborated,
5:12
Speaker 3: the agreement entails a comprehensive cessation of hostilities, including in Lebanon,
5:16
Speaker 3: the gradual release of Iran's frozen assets, and an end
5:19
Speaker 3: to America's blockade of the blockade in the Straight of Hormuz.
5:23
Speaker 3: Maritime traffic through the strait would resume under joint Iranian
5:26
Speaker 3: and Omani oversight. Once these measures take effect, the parties
5:30
Speaker 3: would have an additional thirty days to negotiate a final agreement.
5:33
Speaker 3: That second stage accord is expected to address both the
5:36
Speaker 3: nuclear issue and the long term status of the Street.
5:39
Speaker 3: Significant progress, however, already appears to have been made on
5:42
Speaker 3: the nuclear file, and as I understand it, broad principles
5:45
Speaker 3: for its resolution have largely been agreed upon. So both
5:49
Speaker 3: the Iranians and Trump saying that they are close to
5:52
Speaker 3: an agreement, we do not have official word yet. What
5:56
Speaker 3: are some of the sticky or thorny issues laid out
5:59
Speaker 3: in your piece here that could still derail progress?
6:02
Speaker 2: Well, I think the main problems are going to come
6:05
Speaker 2: in the second phase because if we take a look
6:07
Speaker 2: at what this memorandum understanding ultimately does, it really brings
6:11
Speaker 2: us back to where we were supposed to be when
6:14
Speaker 2: the first ceasefire was struck. It was supposed to be regional.
6:17
Speaker 2: Lebanon was supposed to be included. There was not supposed
6:21
Speaker 2: to be a blockade of the blockade. The Strait was
6:23
Speaker 2: going to be opened, but it will be under Iran
6:25
Speaker 2: and control for that moment. So we're going back to
6:27
Speaker 2: where we were supposed to be before FDD sold Trump
6:31
Speaker 2: on this idea of a blockade of the blockade, which
6:33
Speaker 2: then created all of these additional problems, and for the
6:36
Speaker 2: weekend the US's position and then we have now. But
6:40
Speaker 2: on top of that, there's two other things. A commitment
6:43
Speaker 2: for a final deal within thirty days it could be
6:46
Speaker 2: extended to sixty as well as some sanctions relief, release
6:50
Speaker 2: of Iranian assets in the interim, which seems to be
6:54
Speaker 2: some sort of a good will measure that Trump had
6:57
Speaker 2: to give to the Iranian side. But the real test
6:59
Speaker 2: is to come in this second phase, because that's when
7:02
Speaker 2: they're going to have to resolve the nuclear issue. The
7:04
Speaker 2: question of the stock pile is still one that is
7:07
Speaker 2: not resolved. Although there's been movement in the right direction,
7:11
Speaker 2: that's going to be tied to a final resolution to
7:14
Speaker 2: the status of the strait of hormones, which also is
7:18
Speaker 2: not fully resolved in this interim stage. So there's still
7:22
Speaker 2: a lot And on top of that, I know, thirty
7:25
Speaker 2: days is not a lot of time, but my god,
7:28
Speaker 2: it gives the Hawks plenty of opportunities to try to
7:32
Speaker 2: do everything they can to sabotage this steal. The one
7:37
Speaker 2: thing I point out though in my piece, is that
7:39
Speaker 2: we may not see that high of a decibel coming
7:43
Speaker 2: from the Israeli side. From Israeli officials. You will have
7:47
Speaker 2: massive decibel, of course from their propsies in Washington, DC,
7:51
Speaker 2: But from these radio officials standpoint themselves, they may have
7:55
Speaker 2: to choose to be a bit more careful. And the
7:57
Speaker 2: reason for that is that they are now entering into
7:59
Speaker 2: their election season and Trump remains very popular in Israel
8:04
Speaker 2: and as a result can damage any politician in Israel
8:08
Speaker 2: that chooses to publicly confront Trump over this issue. Right,
8:12
Speaker 2: And I think this is what Trump was hinting at,
8:14
Speaker 2: was it two or three days ago, and which he
8:17
Speaker 2: kind of out of the blue started saying that he's
8:19
Speaker 2: seen the polls and he's at ninety nine percent in
8:22
Speaker 2: Israel and that he actually could run for prime minister,
8:25
Speaker 2: that he may actually run for prime minister in Israel
8:27
Speaker 2: later on. I think that was a warning sign.
8:30
Speaker 1: To these radis.
8:31
Speaker 2: That's telling Israeli officials that I'm so popular, I can
8:34
Speaker 2: be the kingmaker in Israel and you would be unwise
8:37
Speaker 2: to go after me over this issue.
8:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, thinking about that and the Israeli faction here there's
8:42
Speaker 1: two things, right. So there's their lobby here in Washington,
8:45
Speaker 1: and we have a taste of that Christ I know
8:46
Speaker 1: you have it in the rundown about the Neo Khon
8:49
Speaker 1: freak out here we have that former Secretary of State
8:52
Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo. The deal being floated seems straight out of
8:55
Speaker 1: the Wendy Sherman, Robert Mally, Ben Rhodes playbook. Pay the
8:58
Speaker 1: IRGC to build a w naprogram and terrorize the world,
9:02
Speaker 1: not remotely America. First, it's straightforward, open the damned straight,
9:06
Speaker 1: deny Iran access to the money, take out enough Iranian
9:10
Speaker 1: capabilities so it cannot threaten our allies to the region. Damn,
9:13
Speaker 1: I really wish we thought of that, that we maybe
9:16
Speaker 1: we'd even tried it. There was another one here from
9:19
Speaker 1: Robert Malley, who was actually one of the negotiators. He's
9:22
Speaker 1: not not quite the path. But if this deal brings
9:24
Speaker 1: an end to the unjustifiable, unlawful war, to the sense
9:26
Speaker 1: of sauce of life, and to the cascading follow I'm
9:29
Speaker 1: sure we'd be willingly accepted over the alternative. I think
9:32
Speaker 1: what's interesting beyond Mike Pompeo, and you know, Mark Levin Mark.
9:37
Speaker 4: DENNICATD We have a good Lindsay Graham one here too.
9:40
Speaker 1: This is my personal favorite. Yeah, I've been thinking about
9:42
Speaker 1: this all weekend, the amount of times I've read this
9:45
Speaker 1: particular paragraph, which is this, It makes one wonder why
9:49
Speaker 1: the war started to begin with. If these perceptions are accurate.
9:54
Speaker 1: I personally am skeptical of the idea that Iran cannot
9:56
Speaker 1: be denied the ability to terrorize the Straight and the
9:59
Speaker 1: region can be protected against itself against Iranian military capability.
10:03
Speaker 1: This is prefaced by a if the deal is struck
10:06
Speaker 1: to end the Iran conflict, because these believe the Straight
10:08
Speaker 1: of Horn moves cannot be opened with terrorism and Iran
10:10
Speaker 1: still possesses the capability, then Iran will be perceived as
10:13
Speaker 1: being a dominant force requiring a diplomatic solution. Yes, Senator,
10:17
Speaker 1: that's true, and I think fundamentally get it. Yeah, he's
10:22
Speaker 1: it's like the worst person you know, just made a
10:24
Speaker 1: good point like that means. But I do think it's
10:27
Speaker 1: important that that many of these neocons are grappling with
10:31
Speaker 1: the geopolitical reality that they rocked upon us on February
10:36
Speaker 1: twenty seventh. There was no there was no nuclear weapon,
10:39
Speaker 1: in Iran, they were not close to getting a nuclear weapon.
10:41
Speaker 1: The strait of horror moves was open and there was
10:44
Speaker 1: I mean, I can only speak for myself. I would
10:47
Speaker 1: never have dreamed of the strategic humiliation of the United
10:50
Speaker 1: States that I'd be sitting here on May twenty fourth.
10:52
Speaker 1: But they are the people who chose that. As you
10:54
Speaker 1: said in your opening comments, we tried everything they wanted.
10:57
Speaker 1: We killed their leader, we flooded the country with weapons,
11:00
Speaker 1: We bombed the hell out of them absent, you know,
11:03
Speaker 1: a full blown bombing of their nuclear power plant infrastructure,
11:06
Speaker 1: and a ground invasion. We did everything, even a naval blockade.
11:10
Speaker 1: And we're basically at a point where you're going to
11:12
Speaker 1: get a deal which easily could have also been obtained
11:15
Speaker 1: on February twenty seventh minus the strait of horror moves.
11:18
Speaker 1: So I just think that watching this, you know, watching
11:22
Speaker 1: this rhetoric escalate, and the domestic ISRAELI will be side.
11:26
Speaker 1: What they're going to hammer home is what we just
11:29
Speaker 1: laid out here about the humiliation of the United States.
11:32
Speaker 1: I mean, what is your expectation that this rhetoric will
11:35
Speaker 1: not move Trump away from this sort of deal, even
11:39
Speaker 1: though he has all these regional allies who are whispering
11:41
Speaker 1: in his ear in a different direction.
11:43
Speaker 2: It's going to be very tough for him because he's
11:45
Speaker 2: very sensitive to that type of rhetoric. So it really
11:49
Speaker 2: is crucial for him to recognize that he has to
11:53
Speaker 2: show that discipline of sticking to He can't have it
11:56
Speaker 2: both ways. He's either going to have a deal or
11:57
Speaker 2: he's going to have total war. And part of the
12:00
Speaker 2: reason why he's going in this direction, and this is
12:02
Speaker 2: really important to understand. I was on this panel with
12:04
Speaker 2: Joken two days ago and he made this point. I
12:06
Speaker 2: want to repeat it. If there was a military option
12:11
Speaker 2: for the United States that could turn the tables, that
12:13
Speaker 2: could reverse the situation in favor of the United States,
12:17
Speaker 2: Trump would have used it long time ago. The reason
12:21
Speaker 2: why he hasn't is because it does not exist. And
12:24
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter how courageous Lindsey Graham or Mike Pompeo
12:29
Speaker 2: Mark Levin sound in their tweets. They're not the ones
12:32
Speaker 2: that are going to be fighting this war. They're not
12:33
Speaker 2: the ones that are going to be dying if they
12:36
Speaker 2: managed to commitity. Trump to go on the suicide mission,
12:41
Speaker 2: but he has had enough of a survival instinct here
12:44
Speaker 2: to recognize that despite the fact that he's issued threats
12:47
Speaker 2: of this kind, he's not actualized them because he knows
12:50
Speaker 2: it won't work. It will make the situation one hundred
12:53
Speaker 2: times worse than it already is. So when we're seeing
12:56
Speaker 2: these things coming from Levin, etc. I hope this is
13:00
Speaker 2: the moment when Trump goes back to what he promised
13:03
Speaker 2: the American people, which was that he was going to
13:05
Speaker 2: kick these people out of government and that he was
13:07
Speaker 2: not going to listen to them. He was not going
13:09
Speaker 2: to go for the endless wars that they constantly are
13:12
Speaker 2: presenting and pushing on American politicians. There's one other elemental, however,
13:17
Speaker 2: that I think is really really crucial. The Iranians also
13:21
Speaker 2: have to be very careful here. They cannot repeat what
13:25
Speaker 2: Trump otherwise constantly does, which is constantly tries to humiliate
13:30
Speaker 2: the other side. He had very little sensitivity to the
13:33
Speaker 2: fact that all of these memes and pictures and things
13:36
Speaker 2: that he said during the negotiations made it more difficult
13:40
Speaker 2: for the Iranians to come to an agreement. Now, the
13:42
Speaker 2: Iranians have to be very careful not to colote or
13:45
Speaker 2: do anything that would actually fuel the attacks by the
13:52
Speaker 2: neo cars on Trump and potentially undermine Trump's ability to
13:56
Speaker 2: deliver on his end of the bargain. And there was
13:58
Speaker 2: a tweet yesterday by the spokesperson of the Foreign Minister
14:03
Speaker 2: and which he compared this to the ill fated Roman
14:06
Speaker 2: attempt to conquer Persia back in I think it was
14:09
Speaker 2: two hundred and eighty something in which they were defeated
14:11
Speaker 2: by the Sasin Indian king Shaput a second and essentially
14:15
Speaker 2: said that ultimately the Romans had to sue for peace
14:18
Speaker 2: on Evan's terms at the time. Maybe there is a parallel,
14:22
Speaker 2: but bottom line is, don't issue those tweets in this
14:25
Speaker 2: very very sens them Later, Yeah, I do not want
14:31
Speaker 2: to give further fodder to the Lindsey Grahams and others
14:35
Speaker 2: who only want to make sure that this war resumes.
14:38
Speaker 4: Good.
14:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, treated looking from the outside, it seems to me
14:42
Speaker 3: that there have been a number of sort of key
14:44
Speaker 3: turning points or revelations during this war from the Trump perspective.
14:48
Speaker 3: So number one, he was clearly convinced himself for Solda
14:52
Speaker 3: BILLI goods from the Israelis that oh, you can just
14:54
Speaker 3: take out Viatolin, some top leadership the whole thing is,
14:57
Speaker 3: you know, house of cards, it's going to collapse. Trump
15:00
Speaker 3: was telling allies, and I relied on you for this
15:02
Speaker 3: reporting that this is going to be over in a
15:04
Speaker 3: few days, don't worry about it. Obviously that had to
15:07
Speaker 3: be a little eye opening for him at the beginning.
15:09
Speaker 3: This did not go the way that I was told
15:11
Speaker 3: that it would go. The second one for me appears
15:15
Speaker 3: to have been that pilot rescue or whatever happened there
15:19
Speaker 3: near Isfahan, where yes, they were allegedly able to get
15:22
Speaker 3: their pilot out, even though we've never known who he is,
15:25
Speaker 3: we've never seen him, we've never heard about him since.
15:26
Speaker 3: But in any case, we know for sure that it
15:29
Speaker 3: was a bit of debacle. You had US aircraft that
15:32
Speaker 3: got stuck there, had to be destroyed, and I think.
15:35
Speaker 4: That may have been an eye opening moment in.
15:37
Speaker 3: Terms of, oh, if we do something on the ground,
15:40
Speaker 3: this is going to be very difficult.
15:42
Speaker 4: This is going to be a problem for us.
15:44
Speaker 3: Because it was right after that that he began to
15:48
Speaker 3: pursue or how do we step back? And the most
15:52
Speaker 3: intensive bombing campaigns ended, and then this is the piece
15:56
Speaker 3: I really want to get your thoughts on, potentially the
15:59
Speaker 3: most recent turning point was the trip to China. It
16:02
Speaker 3: seemed like Trump held out of you that he could
16:04
Speaker 3: go to the Chinese and they would basically save his ass.
16:07
Speaker 3: And when he went there and they were like, listen, body,
16:10
Speaker 3: you know, nice to see you, but good luck, that's
16:13
Speaker 3: when he had to get serious about, you know, taking
16:17
Speaker 3: some concessions here and striking a deal that, yeah, the
16:21
Speaker 3: warmongers are going to hate, the neo guns are going
16:23
Speaker 3: to hate, and that does expose the weakness of the
16:26
Speaker 3: United States ultimately, you know, as we evaluate what the
16:31
Speaker 3: you know, what this war quote unquote achieved on our behalf.
16:34
Speaker 3: And so I wonder, if you see it that way,
16:36
Speaker 3: how influential do you think that that trip to China
16:39
Speaker 3: was in ultimately forcing Trump's hand to come to some
16:41
Speaker 3: sort of a negotiated agreement.
16:44
Speaker 2: No, I do agree with you. Let me say something
16:46
Speaker 2: on the previous point as well, because you're absolutely right,
16:49
Speaker 2: we know very little what happened. We don't even know
16:52
Speaker 2: the names of the pilots. But apparently Hollywood is already
16:55
Speaker 2: making a movie about it. I don't know if you
16:56
Speaker 2: guys saw the story. I know, yeah, I'm the rights
16:58
Speaker 2: have been sold. They're doing movie about something that nothing
17:01
Speaker 2: we know nothing about. I don't know, are they just
17:03
Speaker 2: going to make up the facts here or what's going
17:05
Speaker 2: on here? So I thought that was quite fascinating that
17:08
Speaker 2: Hollywood is already on top of it. But also on
17:11
Speaker 2: that point.
17:12
Speaker 4: Hollywood may have been on top of it from the beginning.
17:14
Speaker 2: Truth it may have been exactly exactly perhaps this was
17:17
Speaker 2: their production to begin with. And you know, I've spoken
17:20
Speaker 2: to folks this is speculative. I don't know the facts here,
17:24
Speaker 2: but I've spoken to folks on the military side on
17:27
Speaker 2: the US and many of them are pointed to the
17:31
Speaker 2: fact that this appeared to have been a real effort
17:35
Speaker 2: to go inside of the country and do something to
17:38
Speaker 2: the nuclear facilities, That there was an attempt to either
17:41
Speaker 2: take or build quickly a runway, and then managed to
17:46
Speaker 2: fly in a lot of soldiers so you don't have
17:48
Speaker 2: to do the actual invasion from the south, which would
17:50
Speaker 2: have been impossible. Instead you're lead frogging it. You're going
17:53
Speaker 2: into the middle of the country. And it was a disaster.
17:57
Speaker 2: The United States loss more air carrier aircraft that weekend
18:02
Speaker 2: since the Vietnam War. And if you remember, it is
18:05
Speaker 2: about two days after that that Trump first issues that
18:10
Speaker 2: civilizational threats and seems to have had a meltdown on
18:14
Speaker 2: par with Mark Levin right now on truth social and
18:18
Speaker 2: then that evening the ceasefire is announced. So it seems
18:22
Speaker 2: to have been a scenario in which he tried something
18:24
Speaker 2: very big. It was an absolute disaster. They managed to
18:27
Speaker 2: make sure that much of it is not known to
18:29
Speaker 2: the public. Instead, there's this story about the saving of
18:33
Speaker 2: two pilots, which may have been true, but even if
18:35
Speaker 2: it was true, it seems to have been a success
18:38
Speaker 2: within a larger failure. And then after that you had
18:41
Speaker 2: the ceasefire. So we've seen this pattern going for broke,
18:46
Speaker 2: not working, and then having to back off. And I
18:48
Speaker 2: think the China trip was absolutely crucial. Right before he
18:52
Speaker 2: goes to China and was hoping and remember the FDD
18:56
Speaker 2: crowd sold this to Trump by saying, not only will
18:59
Speaker 2: they be a massive problem inside of Iran, but also
19:02
Speaker 2: this is going to create problems for the Chinese, and
19:04
Speaker 2: the Chinese will then turn and put pressure on Iran
19:08
Speaker 2: to back down. Okay, so first Iran has to crumble,
19:12
Speaker 2: and secondly the Chinese were supposedly going to put pressure
19:16
Speaker 2: on Iran. The first part completely false Ivan should have
19:20
Speaker 2: crumble four weeks ago, according to the calculations of FTD,
19:24
Speaker 2: but also right before Trump arrives in Beijing, the Iranians
19:28
Speaker 2: and the Chinese strike a deal and Chinese ships are
19:31
Speaker 2: allowed to go through the Strait of Hormoes. The details
19:34
Speaker 2: of it we don't know. Did the Ivanians just allowed
19:36
Speaker 2: that entirely or did the Chinese agree to some sort
19:39
Speaker 2: of a payment system unclear, but it essentially meant that
19:42
Speaker 2: by the time Trump arrived in Beijing, the strait was
19:46
Speaker 2: already open for the Chinese ship. If they were to
19:50
Speaker 2: be blocked, it would not be by the Iranians, it
19:53
Speaker 2: would be by the United States. And if so, Trump
19:56
Speaker 2: would be picking a fight with the Chinese, and the
19:58
Speaker 2: Chinese will not be putting pressure on the U because
20:00
Speaker 2: Yvan was not their problem. They would be putting pressure
20:02
Speaker 2: on the United States. And I think he walked away
20:05
Speaker 2: from that and realizing, Okay, the FDD card was wrong
20:09
Speaker 2: on every point. The Chinese were not going to come
20:12
Speaker 2: on to the US side, And anyone who knew anything
20:14
Speaker 2: about China, and I don't pretend to be a China expert,
20:16
Speaker 2: would have known that that's simply not the way the
20:18
Speaker 2: Chinese would have operated, and once that card also fell,
20:22
Speaker 2: then I think we got more serious about trying to
20:25
Speaker 2: get to some sort of a deal and the structure
20:27
Speaker 2: of this erangement, which I have to say I'm not
20:29
Speaker 2: a fan of. I'm not crazy about this next thirty days,
20:33
Speaker 2: but nevertheless, that was something that the Yvanians were pushing.
20:36
Speaker 1: What is this?
20:37
Speaker 4: Why are you not a fan of that treaty?
20:40
Speaker 2: Because of this very very intense window that it provides
20:45
Speaker 2: the Hawks to sabotage this and particularly mindful of the
20:50
Speaker 2: fact that a lot of what we're seeing is supposedly
20:53
Speaker 2: agreed upon, would have been agreed upon quietly, without revealing
20:58
Speaker 2: the thirty days or anything like that, and then go
21:01
Speaker 2: for more intense negotiations without offering this type of opportunity,
21:07
Speaker 2: the silver platter for the Hawks to go after this,
21:10
Speaker 2: and the significant vulnerability that Trump would have you in
21:12
Speaker 2: this period.
21:13
Speaker 1: Right, I think it's so important. That's what I was
21:15
Speaker 1: about to emphasize is Israel. I don't know if you
21:18
Speaker 1: guys saw what they did in Gaza yesterday. I mean,
21:21
Speaker 1: they lit Gaza up harder than they have in months,
21:24
Speaker 1: and they actually pushed beyond the so called Yellow line area,
21:28
Speaker 1: which they previously hadn't and I don't think that that's
21:31
Speaker 1: an accident. It's to ignite tensions, to ignite and inflame things,
21:35
Speaker 1: potentially to get Hesbola to start firing back at them,
21:38
Speaker 1: you know, because they're angry about what's happening, and then
21:41
Speaker 1: they can say, see, we have a right of legitimate
21:44
Speaker 1: self defense in Lebanon, and oh that just so happens
21:47
Speaker 1: to blow up the entire deal. I mean, we have
21:49
Speaker 1: thirty days basically of potential Israeli sabotage all across the board.
21:54
Speaker 1: And you also highlight an important thing here is we
21:57
Speaker 1: still don't know the details. When they say this strait
22:00
Speaker 1: will be opened, that's Trump. Now Iran, you can correct
22:04
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong, has come out and said the
22:06
Speaker 1: Strait will be open under Iranian management. I have no
22:10
Speaker 1: idea what that means. Maybe it's no toll, or they
22:13
Speaker 1: have the ability to close it if they want to.
22:16
Speaker 1: Obviously I hope it's the latter. But in terms of
22:19
Speaker 1: how we will we see oil, oil and natural gas
22:24
Speaker 1: resume normal flow through the strait over the next thirty days,
22:28
Speaker 1: I don't think so. And so the the economic kind
22:31
Speaker 1: of cliff over all of that seems very very precarious.
22:35
Speaker 1: That's actually my last question to you is the Iranians
22:39
Speaker 1: seem absolutely hell bent on there will be control over
22:44
Speaker 1: the strait. Now, control can mean a lot of different things.
22:47
Speaker 1: In your expectation, does it look like a toll management
22:50
Speaker 1: with Oman? Does it look like a latent deterrent, basically
22:55
Speaker 1: like a nuclear weapon would be in terms of we
22:57
Speaker 1: can do this anytime that we want. How furious are
23:00
Speaker 1: they about exerting their control over the strait?
23:03
Speaker 2: No, I think this has become a new red line
23:05
Speaker 2: for the Iranians. However, I don't think it will be
23:07
Speaker 2: a toll. There's an Omani proposal that has gotten in
23:10
Speaker 2: some traction which is essentially a toll, but it is
23:14
Speaker 2: framed because a toll would be really illegal internationally in
23:18
Speaker 2: the absence of a war. Instead, it will be an
23:21
Speaker 2: environmental management fee in which countries are paying because there's
23:26
Speaker 2: such a high traffic in that strait, and this would
23:31
Speaker 2: then be collected by Iran and Oman. However, the US
23:36
Speaker 2: position is one in which they're not crazy about this idea.
23:40
Speaker 2: They prefer it to be regionalized, so it's not just
23:43
Speaker 2: Iran and Oman, but also the other states in the GCC.
23:48
Speaker 2: That would give the Trump administration ability to say it's
23:50
Speaker 2: not the Ivarnians controlling it. This is the region, it's
23:52
Speaker 2: their region, and they've decided to do this, and you know,
23:55
Speaker 2: it's just a management fee and we can one way
23:58
Speaker 2: another live with that. So I think so this issue
24:00
Speaker 2: is not entirely resolved. It will be resolved as part
24:03
Speaker 2: of the thirty Days. I don't suspect that Yvonneys will
24:06
Speaker 2: give up a degree of control at all, and they
24:10
Speaker 2: can reassert that if there's war again. But there's also
24:13
Speaker 2: another element here, which is part of what Vanni has
24:16
Speaker 2: wanted to do with the control of this trade, was
24:20
Speaker 2: that they wanted to force other countries who had left
24:23
Speaker 2: Yvon in market because of US sanctions to now have
24:27
Speaker 2: no option but to trade with Yvon again because they
24:31
Speaker 2: would have to pay these fees to get the oil.
24:32
Speaker 2: Perhaps they're not buying anything from Yvon, but they're still
24:35
Speaker 2: buying the oil and the gas and whatnot, and as
24:37
Speaker 2: a result, they would need to have that transactional relationship
24:41
Speaker 2: with Yvon financially well, if Trump, as part of the
24:45
Speaker 2: final deal, lifts all primary sanctions and the banking sanctions,
24:50
Speaker 2: well then perhaps that control of the strade for that
24:52
Speaker 2: specific purpose of forcing these countries back into trading Yiran
24:56
Speaker 2: is no longer necessary. So I think there's ways to
24:59
Speaker 2: actually resolve this, but it is a point of leverage
25:01
Speaker 2: that Divans are not going to give up in the
25:03
Speaker 2: intermediate stage. At the last stage, we'll see exactly how
25:07
Speaker 2: it ends up, but I can see this is going
25:09
Speaker 2: in several different directions.
25:10
Speaker 4: Yeah.
25:11
Speaker 3: Well, that leads to my last question, which is, let's
25:14
Speaker 3: assume that this immediate term deal comes together. Let's assume
25:17
Speaker 3: they're able to work out the differences on the nuclear file,
25:20
Speaker 3: that there is some sort of settlement we figure out
25:22
Speaker 3: in the strata Hormuz.
25:23
Speaker 4: Lots of big question marks there, as we all know.
25:25
Speaker 3: Let's say, though, that this war concludes along the lines
25:29
Speaker 3: that are being laid out right now. You know what
25:32
Speaker 3: will this mean in terms of the US position in
25:34
Speaker 3: the world and changes to the both global and regional
25:38
Speaker 3: balance of power.
25:40
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, the first thing we have to
25:42
Speaker 2: note is that this will be an utter strategic defeat
25:46
Speaker 2: for Israel. It has started two wars with Yvon, and
25:50
Speaker 2: the end result has been that Yvon has restored its
25:52
Speaker 2: deterrence it has been revealed that Israel is completely incapable
25:56
Speaker 2: of fighting any war with Yvon without massive action Americans
26:01
Speaker 2: support and involvement, and even then it didn't end up
26:04
Speaker 2: well because Yvon had escalation dominance. Because of the use
26:08
Speaker 2: of geography. On top of that, the Israelis have destroyed
26:12
Speaker 2: what little standing they had left amongst the American public.
26:16
Speaker 2: The only demographic that now seems to support them still
26:19
Speaker 2: or be sympathetic to them is Boomer Republicans, and in
26:23
Speaker 2: ten fifteen years there will not be any such thing
26:25
Speaker 2: as Boomer Republicans as a major constituency or demographic. All
26:29
Speaker 2: of this is happening, and the Israelis, again during the
26:33
Speaker 2: next couple of weeks and months, are going to be
26:35
Speaker 2: very limited in what they can do to Sabotar directly indirectly.
26:39
Speaker 2: They will still do a tremendous amount of things, but
26:42
Speaker 2: their ability to publicly challenge or pick a fight with Trump,
26:45
Speaker 2: I think, is going to be limited. For the United States,
26:49
Speaker 2: this is also going to ultimately be a turning point,
26:52
Speaker 2: I believe. I think we had a brief conversation about
26:55
Speaker 2: this before as well, but I think this is really
26:57
Speaker 2: the inflection point that really puts an end to america
27:00
Speaker 2: global primacy. The ability to sustain that when you cannot
27:03
Speaker 2: even control or have escalation dominance in the Persian Gulf
27:07
Speaker 2: is very, very limited. And beyond that, even if it
27:11
Speaker 2: isn't even if there's explanations as to why this war
27:14
Speaker 2: went the way it did, the question marks about America's ability, capacity,
27:20
Speaker 2: and competence in being able to run global primacy is
27:24
Speaker 2: now being spread all over the world, including amongst some
27:27
Speaker 2: of the allies who have for a long time pushed
27:30
Speaker 2: the United States to extend and deepen that primacy. This
27:33
Speaker 2: is not at all the consequences that we had after
27:36
Speaker 2: the Iraq War. It was a disaster, but no one
27:38
Speaker 2: questioned the America's ability to sustain global primacy. That question
27:42
Speaker 2: will be front and center after this war. In my view, however,
27:46
Speaker 2: I have to be very clear. I think it's a
27:48
Speaker 2: good thing to the United States not to pursue global primacy.
27:51
Speaker 2: It should have stopped pursuing that a long time ago.
27:54
Speaker 2: It's just not that it should have happened this way.
27:56
Speaker 3: Yeah right, Yeah, that's how I view it as well.
27:59
Speaker 3: Doctor Parci, thank you as always for your analysis. Everybody,
28:02
Speaker 3: go and check out the substack treat to Parsy. Will
28:05
Speaker 3: make sure to link in the description as well for
28:07
Speaker 3: more of treat this analysis.
28:09
Speaker 4: Great to see you, sir, thank you, thank you so
28:11
Speaker 4: much for having me appreciate it.
28:12
Speaker 1: It's our pleasure.