Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 350 - 9/10/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 350 - 9/10/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 350 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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week. That's right, it's hump day
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halfway through the second week in the month of September is
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September. Can you believe it or not
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already a third of the way through almost halfway through
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and we are in the full swing of football season, college
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football, NFL and we're getting down to our routine.
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So you can kind of expect this. You know, we're going through
0:55
the dog days of summer when it was only baseball is just say
0:57
we're going to grind baseball every day.
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Now that we have football back in our lives, we're going to
1:02
have this new routine of basically Monday nights or
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Monday podcast, I should say, talking the Monday Night
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Football game. Tuesday pods will be the early
1:10
college football plays early sharp reports.
1:12
Hope you guys jumped on Vandy plus 5 1/2.
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They're down to 5 even 4 1/2. And then Wednesdays, which are
1:19
today we're going to talk an early NFL sharp report.
1:22
So I do have for you guys four NFL bets, official bets.
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I've already placed these bets, going to talk, you talk through
1:29
them with you guys, including a play on tomorrow's game because
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I wanted to jump on this number before it moved because I'm
1:34
thinking it may come back the other way.
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So we'll have a play for you guys on the Commanders and Green
1:39
Bay game for tomorrow as well as three other plays and then we
1:43
will have one baseball play. You know, I must admit guys,
1:46
baseball, if you are still grinding baseball and you're
1:48
winning and turning a profit, I salute you because it is just
1:52
brutal out there with bullpen collapses and unpredictable
1:55
things happening. Yesterday we had three plays,
1:57
went 1 and 2 -, 1.3 units. We had a nice it with the
2:01
Orioles. I was pretty annoying because
2:03
they're up two to one. In the ninth, Tommy Fam of all
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people hit a Homer to tie it up, went into extras and luckily the
2:09
the Orioles got out of it. I forgot the name of the pitcher
2:12
who got the win, but he was really, really good.
2:13
I think he pitched 2 innings, no runs the the 10th and the 11th.
2:16
But there was a a hit by Besayo, the, you know, star-studded
2:21
rookie catcher for the Orioles. And it barely like at the
2:24
beginning, they thought that the the ball went foul, but it it
2:27
was after video review, it landed on the line.
2:29
It was a fair ball. And there's a weird thing where
2:32
some sports books graded as a loss and then had to flip it to
2:35
a win. Something about maybe just the,
2:37
you know, going to video review and extras.
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But hopefully your book graded as a win as they should have.
2:42
So the Orioles were a nice winner, but the Yankees and the
2:44
Padres just pathetic. Yankees are up to nothing, end
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up losing 12 to 2. And that didn't tell the whole
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story because I believe going into the 7th inning it was a two
2:53
to two game. They end up giving up like 810
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runs in the the 7th, 8th inning. So their bullpen completely blew
2:59
it. And then the dads Dad, Dad,
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where you at? Dad, you let us let us down last
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night because the Padres, it was a 22 game going into the 9th
3:08
inning. They bring on their closer,
3:09
Robert Suarez, who's usually awesome, gives up a two out, two
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run Homer to Tyler Stevenson, the catcher for the Reds.
3:16
And of course they lose 4 to 2. So out of the Yankees in the
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pods, both decent sized favorites, both lose out, right?
3:22
That was annoying. So that's baseball for you.
3:24
So as a result, I could have had a lot of baseball plays today,
3:27
guys. But I think the smart thing to
3:29
do right now is dial back our MLB and just really focus on
3:32
football where we're making our money and just pick and choose
3:35
MLB. So I will have one play for you
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in Major League Baseball tonight, which we'll talk about.
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But again, normally I'd have basically 3, but let's dial it
3:43
back. You don't want to keep forcing
3:44
something if the market is telling us it's just hard.
3:47
It's it's hard to hit the broadside of a barn right now
3:50
and MLB. So one play in baseball and then
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four early NFL plays for you for this weekend.
3:56
So I want to start off with some NFL betting.
3:59
Now, one thing I'm trying to do and really take advantage of is
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bet basically hooks and key numbers early in the week and
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really pounce on system matches in which we can read the juice
4:09
movement in which direction the line is going and hopefully get
4:11
a good number. So at the time or by the time I
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should say Saturday, Sunday rolls around, you know, we got a
4:17
team 3 1/2 and they're closing at 3:00 or we got a team at 7,
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they're down to 6 1/2. The whole point of betting these
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games early is trying to get good numbers, hooks and key
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numbers that will then hopefully give us some CLV down the road.
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So first bit on the board that I wanted to mention and we'll have
4:32
a full, full breakdown of this because it's still a day away,
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but I have a play here on the Thursday Night Football game,
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Washington Commanders at, of course, the Green Bay Packers.
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Now the reason why I wanted to get this play out today, the day
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before, usually, I typically like to wait, just kind of make
4:48
sure let all the data come in, you know, let the bet splits
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kind of level out as well as, you know, let the public have
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their say. This is a play that I said, hey,
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I got to get the hook before it falls.
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And this is a play here on the Commanders plus 3 1/2.
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Now couple couple things to know about this spot here going into
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this play for this weekend. The commanders, of course, both
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teams are one and O, but the commanders they won their first
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game. Don't remind me I had the giants
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in the points, but they're able to dismiss the giants.
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That was a 21 to six win at home against the Giants covered the
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what was it 6 1/2 six Packers, meanwhile, destroyed the Detroit
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Lions 27 to 13. So both teams want to know both
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teams looking pretty good now what are we seeing across the
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market for this one? Well, the Green Bay Packers
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opened some shops as low as a 2 1/2 point favorite.
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Some two and a halfs immediately got up to three, and a lot of
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these three and a halfs have gotten up or sorry, the threes,
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I should say, have gotten up to 3 1/2.
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So on the one hand, it's pretty clear that this line is moving
5:46
toward Green Bay. However, one thing we always
5:48
want to look at is when you have line movement, when do you see
5:52
the point of resistance? When do you see like a wall get
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get put up and then you start to see it kind of go back the other
5:57
way? That's always critical to me
5:59
because it tells me especially, you know, 9 times out of 10, I
6:02
want to be with the line move tells me smart money.
6:04
You know, it's taking a position but around hooks and key numbers
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and looking for buy back. The idea is then to take
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advantage of the best price before it comes back the other
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way, before it kind of, you know, water seeks its level and
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it kind of goes back. So to me, the +3 and half of
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Washington is the play and that's what I did.
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I took plus 3 1/2. I got it at -115 with the
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commanders. And here's my thought process.
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One, if you look at the juice all across the betting market,
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it's not juiced up toward Green Bay -3 1/2 -, 115 like it's
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going to four. No, it's juiced toward
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Washington plus 3 1/2 -, 115 -, 120.
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And that tells us it might be getting back down to three.
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So the reason why I wanted to talk about this game today is
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what if we don't mention this game and don't really even pay
6:49
attention to it? And then we wake up tomorrow and
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overnight or early morning, a lot of that big juiced up plus 3
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1/2 toward Washington, they're all gone and it's down to
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Washington plus three. That's where the juice is kind
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of telling us which direction it's moving.
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So hopefully getting the best of the number reading the juice
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movement, saying, hey, this is the best price.
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But then some other factors here.
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Washington is a contrarian dog. In a heavily bet primetime game
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at DraftKings, only 40% of the spread bets are on Washington.
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So we can be on the contrarian side, 60% on Green Bay, we can
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bet against the public. We're getting the sharp buyback
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3 1/2, hopefully back down to three.
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Then when I look at circa 46% of spread bets on the Commanders,
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93% of spread dollars on Washington.
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So that is a huge low bets, higher dollar split in favor of
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the commanders. Now the commanders are matching
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quite a few systems for me. Rd. dogs getting 3 1/2 or more.
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Again, if it falls to three it would no longer match, but as of
7:45
right now it does match. Those teams are two in one ATS
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this year. They're 54% against the spread,
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a 4% ROI. Nothing crazy but profitable
7:54
system overcoming the 52.38% that's since 2020.
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Primetime dogs guys. Primetime dogs are four and O
8:02
ATS. Primetime dogs are 54% ATS since
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2020. I have another system match
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short. Rd. dogs +6 or less.
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Those teams are 55% ATS since 2020.
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So a lot of system matches are lighting up here on the
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commanders. Last thing I'll look at is let's
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see. There's one more factor here
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that I wanted to mention real quick.
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Oh, here it is. So as always, I want to look
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lastly at Rhythm. What are our friends at Rhythm
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creating these really sharp AI backed models and predictions?
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What do they say for the game? And I have a system match here
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in green, a recommended green star play from Rhythm that has
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Washington plus 2.9. So if I'm getting a 3 1/2 and
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basically Rhythm is saying it's a 3 point game.
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Again, hopefully you guys are, you know, your brain's starting
8:49
to really focus on these key numbers of 36710.
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All these angles here that are always should be in the back of
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your mind or in the front of your mind when you're making a
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bet. A lot of games laying on three.
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Basically Rhythm is saying 2.93 point game, we're getting a
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hook, we're against the public, we're getting sharp buyback.
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We got really good splits, especially at Circa.
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I think we built a case, a strong enough case to take the
9:11
points with Jayden Daniels. So again, Daniel's popular guy,
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but he's unpopular this week and usually he's laying points, he's
9:18
getting points. So I did jump on the Commanders
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for tomorrow plus 3 1/2 -. 115. Next one for you.
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These are three games that I wrote about in the V sin Sharp
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report that I write every. I have an early Sharp report for
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vsin.com. You can find it on Twitter at
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Josh under score Insights. They'll give you the full
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breakdowns for these ones because these are the three
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games that I bet and I wrote about for today.
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So bills at The Jets, we talked about this one a little bit
9:44
yesterday, but just to rehash Bills one and O had that insane
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come from behind 41 to 40 win over the Ravens in week 1,
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winning outright as a 1 1/2 point home dog Jets O and 1:00.
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But they did their job for us. They covered the plus three
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against the Steelers lost 3432 but covered the number.
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Now what have we seen across the market?
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Will this game open Bills as high as an 8 1/2 point Rd.
10:06
favorite? And believe it or not, the
10:08
public doesn't care about that big number.
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They say Josh Allen's going to roll The Jets.
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Well, maybe he will, but I hope not.
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Because even though the Bills are getting 66% of spread bets,
10:19
they haven't gotten up to -9 -, 10.
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This line has fallen down to -7 -, 6 1/2.
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So sharp reverse line movement in favor of New York lines
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moving toward Justin Fields, even though he's only getting a
10:31
third of tickets at DraftKings. 34% bet, 65% dollars on The Jets
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at circa 64% bets, 98% dollars on The Jets.
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So a couple really good low bets, higher dollar splits there
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on New York. Bunch of system matches on The
10:47
Jets. Dogs with a severe line move,
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and I quantify a severe move as two points or more off the
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opener. It's going from 8 1/2 down to 6
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1/2. Those teams are 87 and 65 ATS 57
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percent, 11% ROI since 2018. Week 2 dog coming off a loss,
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Jets would qualify here. They're one O 1 and 75 ATS 57
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percent, 11% ROI since 2005. That's a big long sample size.
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You also look at divisional dogs, 261 and 220 ATS, 54
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percent, 4% ROI since 2020. And the big dogs, the big
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Bernese mountain dogs, the German shepherds, the big boys,
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they're 6 1/2 point dogs or more.
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They're 135 and one O 8 against the spread, 56 percent, 6% ROI
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since 2022. Key here, guys, you got to get
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the seven. A lot of books are at 6 1/2.
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But I did notice that at, at DraftKings, you can still get
11:46
jets plus 7 -, 120. So again, lose by 7:00.
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You want to push that bet instead of lose that bet.
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And then a little little confidence builder with The
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Jets, Jets, jets jets pop open rhythm.
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I have two models on The Jets plus 5.3 and plus 5.5.
12:02
So you're getting some good value there.
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You know, basically a full point and a half two points with with
12:08
The Jets here based on the rhythm recommendation.
12:11
So I I do have in pocket officially jets I'm going for
12:14
The Jets 2 two weeks in a row +7 Next one for you Jaguars.
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Yeah, the Jaguars against the Cincinnati Bengals.
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Let's set the stage here. Both teams are one and O the
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Jags though they just beat the Panthers 26 to 10, covering as a
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4 1/2 point home favorite. Bengals, meanwhile, they beat
12:33
the Browns 17 to 16 but failed to cover as a 4 1/2 point Rd.
12:38
dog. So what have we seen across the
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market for this one? Well, this game opened with the
12:43
Jaguars listed as high as a 5 1/2 point home favorite and the
12:47
public glutton for punishment. Here they're laying the points
12:50
of Cincinnati, even though the Bengals were a huge public
12:53
favorite, number one most lopsided play Week 1, getting
12:56
80% of bets against the Browns, but not covering well, you're
12:59
getting 65% of spread bets on the Bengals this weekend.
13:02
The public, they just love, they love themselves some Joe Burrow.
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I mean that that's undeniable at this point.
13:07
But anyway, even though you're getting 2/3 of bets here, laying
13:11
the points with the Bengals at home, this line hasn't gone up
13:13
to Bengals -6 - 6 1/2 - 7. No, it is tumbled down toward
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the Jags. Jags have gone from plus 5 1/2.
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It's now plus 3 1/2. A lot of shops are even juicing
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up the Jag side plus 3 1/2 -, 115 looking like it may get down
13:28
to three. I actually see a couple books
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that are down to three. So here's another book that
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here's another game that I wanted to bet today.
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Right now getting the plus 3 1/2, guaranteeing that we get
13:37
that hook because if we wait a few days or wait till Sunday,
13:40
maybe it is down to three. I can't stress enough the
13:43
importance of reading the juice. That's going to tell you a lot
13:45
of whether to play this game or not.
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Like let's say it was Bengals -3 1/2 -, 115 - 120.
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Well, then I would monitor the Jags, but I wouldn't bet them
13:55
right now because that's telling me, hey, this may get back up to
13:57
4. But no, the fact that it's
13:59
falling to the Jags and it's getting juiced up like it may
14:02
fall to three, that means I want to fire on it right now because
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again, I'm hopefully going to beat the closing line.
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So pay attention to the juice movement.
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It's not just the price you got to pay.
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It'll let you know which way the wind is blowing, help you
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predict the next move. So we got some reverse line
14:15
movement on the Jags public Cincy yet lines going to
14:18
Jacksonville. Good bet splits on the Jags
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DraftKings, 35% of spread bets, 49% of spread dollars.
14:25
Circa 57% of spread bets, 97% of spread dollars.
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So really good splits there. On Jacksonville, you would match
14:34
a dog with a severe move. 57% ATS, 11% ROI since 2018.
14:39
Short Rd. Dog 6 or less, 55 percent, 5%
14:43
ROI since 2019. Now if you look at the Jags from
14:46
Rhythm, it's not a big rhythm edge.
14:48
Rhythm actually has the Bengals -4.7.
14:51
So that scares me a bit. But I will say our friends at
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Juice Reel, there is an 11% sharp mush edge in favor of the
14:58
Jags. So 11% more of the sharper
15:00
winning players who have downloaded Juice Reel synced up
15:03
their books. They're going with the Jags as
15:05
well. So look, in the way this this
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juice is moving, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets down to
15:09
three before you know it. I jumped on the Jags.
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Sharp contrarian sharp mush edge system matches Jags plus 3 1/2.
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I got them at -110 So again, shop around.
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I think that was going to be Caesar's.
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A lot of other books are 3 1/2 -, 115 now.
15:25
Last early bed of the week for me.
15:26
Cannot wait to sweat this one. Philadelphia Eagles.
15:30
Kansas City Chiefs. Now this is the most heavily bet
15:34
game thus far. The prime time games will
15:37
overtake it, but man, everyone wants to get down on this one.
15:39
Philly and Kansas City and I got to play for you.
15:42
So let's set the stage kind of talk we've seen across the
15:45
market. This is going to be not a prime
15:47
time game, but it is a Fox game at 4:25 on on Sunday.
15:52
Now the Eagles are one and O remember they just beat the
15:55
Cowboys 24 to 20 in the opener, but we cover with the boys plus
15:58
8 1/2 and the Chiefs O and one lost to the Chargers in Brazil
16:03
2721. Fine by us.
16:05
We had the points there with Herbert, which was great.
16:07
Now, what have we seen across the market?
16:09
Well, this one's kind of interesting.
16:11
This game opened, but the Chiefs listed as a 1 1/2 point home
16:16
favorite. So Chiefs are favored.
16:18
Now. That's notable to me because
16:19
again, you're typically getting it used to always be get 3
16:22
points for home field. There's a lot of research
16:24
nowadays says it's like 1 1/2 for two points, maybe the best.
16:28
You know, only a few best stadiums are still worth the
16:30
three. But anyway, opens -1 1/2 Kansas
16:33
City tells you a neutral site. Philly's probably the better
16:36
team and should be favored. However, what you see across the
16:39
market is a very clear dog to fave line move in favor of the
16:42
Eagles. We went from Philly getting plus
16:45
1 1/2 to now Philly -1 -, 1 1/2. So the first thing jumped out to
16:50
me, dog to fave in favor of Philadelphia.
16:54
Now I looked at at DraftKings. You're getting about 70% of bets
16:58
and dollars on Philly. I don't like that I'm a
17:00
contrarian better. That does scare me.
17:01
But I'm going to give you a nugget here to still like
17:03
Philly. But I did notice that circa 78%
17:07
of spread bets, 89% of spread dollars on Philly.
17:11
So we got a dog to fave move toward Philly.
17:13
We have a low bets, higher dollar split out in Vegas.
17:16
Jalen Hurts when he is a favorite of three points or
17:18
less. He's nine and three against the
17:20
spread 75% in his career. Now the key for me is a money
17:24
line play here. I was able to get Philly -110
17:28
basically a pickup number at FanDuel.
17:30
They're getting 80% of money line bets but 94% of money line
17:34
dollars at Circa. So it tells me at Circa you're
17:36
getting a lot of money line bets for just winning out right here
17:39
with Philly. Here's 1 angle, though, that I
17:42
like non conference favorites. Non conference.
17:45
So basically team from the AFC, team from the NFC here from two
17:48
different conferences. Whoever's the favorite, those
17:51
teams end up winning 113 and 6970% of the time.
17:56
Straight up 4% ROI over the last couple years.
17:59
This is since 2023. So this would match with Philly.
18:03
Philly does enjoy a one day rest advantage.
18:05
They played on Thursday, Chiefs played on Friday, then have to
18:08
travel Brazil back to America. So a little bit of maybe even
18:12
rest for his tired edge there on Philly.
18:14
The other angle for me though, Jalen Carter, remember he spit
18:17
in the face of Dak Prescott and missed the game.
18:20
Didn't even play a single snap. Well, he's going to play.
18:23
He got fine. I would assume he's going to
18:25
play very well because he's probably embarrassed by what he
18:27
did on the side of Kansas City. Xavier Worthy may miss this
18:30
game. Xavier Worthy, who ran right
18:32
into Travis Kelce and like hurt his shoulder or something
18:35
happened to him. There's no confirmation as of
18:37
yet. Worthy's out, but it looks like
18:39
he might be out. But a last little angle here is
18:43
our friends at Rhythm. I have two recommended plays
18:46
from Rhythm on Philly and get a load of this.
18:49
I have Rhythm telling me Philly should be -3.1 and -3.3.
18:55
So I fully admit I don't love the fact that Philly's getting
18:58
70% of tickets at DraftKings. Maybe there's a lot of that
19:01
Mahomes money that comes in late.
19:02
I would love to see maybe Philly close with like 60% of bets but
19:06
dog to fave toward Philly. We have a non conference
19:10
favorite straight up system match.
19:12
Again, there's a money line play for me -110 FanDuel Carter
19:15
should be motivated, maybe no Xavier worthy, and of course,
19:18
Rhythm. The big thing to me is rhythm
19:20
has this as a three-point game in favor of Philly.
19:22
So if we're money lining them and again round -110 and they're
19:26
favored by three, from rhythm's perspective, that's an
19:29
actionable edge. Lastly, our friends at Juice
19:31
Reel, a 12% sharp mush edge in favor of Philly.
19:36
So I'm going Philly here. Guys.
19:38
I played Mahomes in the Super Bowl.
19:39
Let me down. Remember, Philly dominated 140
19:42
to 22 as a 1 1/2 point neutral sight dog.
19:46
But I'm playing Philly in this one.
19:47
So I did money line them -110 at FanDuel.
19:50
So let's go Eagles fly, Eagles fly.
19:53
So Commanders 3 1/2 jet 7 Jags 3 1/2 Philly money line.
19:57
Those are my early 4 bets, official bets already made in
20:01
pocket for NFL Week 2. We might have more actually look
20:04
in the the Monday night games. I I might have a couple plays
20:06
there as well as some other games that caught my eye.
20:09
So we'll stay tuned with that. Now let's finish up the pod.
20:13
Talking a little baseball again, we got to be careful in
20:15
baseball. It's it's scary out there right
20:16
now. I did land on one game that
20:18
caught my eye. Big match up here tonight in
20:21
Philly, aforementioned Philadelphia, 6:45 PM Eastern
20:25
Time. The Mets at the Phillies.
20:27
Now coming into this one, we have the Phillies 85 and 60.
20:31
Mets are 76 and 69. And this I believe is the final
20:35
game of the OR no, it's actually a four-game set.
20:37
It's the third game, A4 game set, but Philly has won the 1st
20:41
2. They won the opener, won
20:42
nothing. They rolled last night 9 to 3.
20:46
And of course, Philly's playing better.
20:47
They've won four of their last five.
20:49
Mets have lost four in a row. Pitching match up tonight.
20:52
Clay Holmes, remember he was with the Yankees.
20:54
Reliever, converted starter, signed a deal in the offseason
20:57
to join the Mets. 11 and seven. 3.61 Eras had a pretty good
21:01
year. He'll be facing off against
21:03
Christopher Sanchez. 12 and five. 2.6 OERA, what do we see
21:08
across the market here? Well, not a huge steam move, but
21:11
this line has moved up in favor of Philadelphia.
21:15
Philly's went from around a -, 160 favorite up to around -165
21:21
Some shops even touched as high as -170 So line moving a little
21:24
bit toward Philly. I found Philly -160 at Caesar,
21:28
so that's my play here. But I really like at Circa bet
21:32
splits on the money line, circa 29% of money line bets, but 64%
21:39
of money line dollars on the Phillies.
21:41
So really good split there out in Vegas.
21:43
A bunch of matches here on Philadelphia.
21:46
So one will be a favorite. Low total total.
21:48
This one is very low. It's a 7 1/2 at open at 8:00.
21:51
So you didn't see a line fall even further toward the under.
21:54
So good sign. A fair amount of expected run
21:56
score more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
21:59
If you look at home favorites who made the postseason versus
22:03
an opponent who also made the postseason, that's a 59% system
22:07
this year. You also look at home favorites
22:10
made the postseason line move in their favor coming off a win.
22:13
That's a 64% system this year. Philly, by the way, when they
22:17
are favorite with a line move in their direction, they're 46 and
22:20
2070 percent, 8% ROI. That's the second best fave with
22:25
a line move team in baseball. Also Philly as a home favorite
22:28
just at home expected to win. They're 43 and 1969%, 9% ROI.
22:34
That's also second best in baseball.
22:36
Now digging into Sanchez, I want to back him.
22:39
He's 5 and O 2.28 ERA at home this year at night nine and
22:43
four, 2.65 ERA. The Mets 31 and 42 on the road,
22:48
not great. Philly 47 and 23 at home, very
22:52
good. Also some batting average
22:54
advantages for Philly. When Philly's at home, they're
22:57
hitting 276. That's number one in baseball.
23:00
When they're facing a righty, they're hitting 263.
23:02
That's number two in baseball. Mets hitting 242 on the road,
23:06
that's 16th. Mets against lefties hitting
23:08
239, that's 18th. So we've got the Phills who have
23:12
won the first two of these of this four-game set.
23:15
I want to back them tonight, hopefully make it three in a
23:17
row. And I did lay it here with
23:19
Christopher Sanchez and the phills -160 at Caesars.
23:24
So that about does it for episode 350 of the All systems
23:28
Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
23:31
As always, we're going to wrap up first by saying thank you.
23:34
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
23:36
busy lives. And we got a lot going on for
23:39
the fact you guys TuneIn, listen to the sharp breakdowns and
23:42
grind these games with me. It it really does mean a lot.
23:44
I'm really proud of the community that we've created
23:46
because you know what you know, we aren't click bait hot takes,
23:50
you know, multi team parlays. No, we're betting game is based
23:53
on what the date of the market the numbers are telling us, not
23:56
what our gut bias instinct and the media narrative is telling
23:59
us to do. So if you do enjoy this pod,
24:02
which I hope you do and you find value in it, would you please
24:05
help me grow this podcast by doing a very easy thing?
24:08
Just give it a five star review. Spotify iTunes click the five
24:11
stars if you want to leave a nice comment and under the
24:14
review section, click the follow button.
24:16
Recommend the pod to a friend. I'd also very much appreciate
24:19
that. Next, if you enjoy this style of
24:22
betting breakdown data-driven sharp contrarian betting,
24:25
focusing on the the numbers, the line movement, the splits, the
24:29
system matches rhythm juice reel predictions.
24:32
If this style of betting has appealed to you, you want to
24:34
learn more about data-driven betting.
24:36
Well, guess what I've written now two books in my life.
24:39
First one is called the Everything guide to sports
24:40
betting. My next one that just came out
24:42
about a month ago, it's actually came out a month ago 2 days from
24:46
now if that makes sense, August 12th, but anyway, it's called
24:49
the NFL Sharp Betting playbook. If you would be so kind as to
24:53
purchase one or both of those books, it would mean a lot to
24:55
me, especially the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
24:57
Please continue to tweet me photos of the book wherever
25:01
you're at in the country. I love retweeting them.
25:04
If you want to give it a five star review and a nice comment
25:06
under the Amazon review, that would very much mean a lot to me
25:09
as well. But buy one or both and I'll buy
25:12
you beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games here tonight or
25:16
I guess the one game go fills next.
25:19
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
25:21
My two favorite sports betting apps.
25:23
They're all data-driven. They help me win.
25:24
They're going to help you win. So rhythm fantastic for their AI
25:27
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
25:30
Remember we have a rhythm rundown live stream show myself
25:33
and Kate Harper tomorrow at 6:00 PM Eastern Time on Twitter.
25:37
So TuneIn, we'll be breaking down all of our favorite plays
25:40
for the upcoming weekend and then juice rail.
25:42
Juice rail has so many great features.
25:44
One of the coolest things about juice rail is you can get the
25:46
all systems go official best bet picks as soon as I make them,
25:50
they're synced right up to my account.
25:52
They get posted on juice rail. So this pot is free.
25:55
It costs you nothing to listen. If you want to sign up and get
25:58
those official best bet picks again, you'll get them as soon
26:00
as I bet them. It'll cost you $4.99 a week, not
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too much cup of coffee, probably less if you're my wife and like
26:07
to go to Starbucks and get the venti mocha double da da da da
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da da with skim ma da da da da anyway.
26:13
But yeah, 5 bucks a week. You get all the plays Monday to
26:15
Friday for less than a dollar a day.
26:18
And you're tipping your podcast host, you're supporting your pod
26:21
host. So I appreciate that.
26:22
You're also going to get the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
26:25
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
26:27
the best line futures all available when you download
26:30
juice reel. So download rhythm download
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juice reel. You'll be off and running making
26:34
sharp bets with two of the best data-driven apps on the market.
26:38
Next you have a live odds page. If you don't, you need one.
26:42
You got to be able to know you know what games are available to
26:44
bet start times, live scoring, live in game wagre outs, but
26:47
most importantly, tracking the market open column that never
26:51
changes next to all the current odds.
26:53
You can immediately see which direction the line is moved.
26:55
You can pull up the line history.
26:56
You can pay attention to the juice movement.
26:58
You can shop for the best price. You can identify steam as soon
27:01
as anything's getting lit up in red, you know that the market is
27:04
moving. You can search for a slow moving
27:06
book that hasn't adjusted yet. But the best live odds page to
27:09
give you all of this is odds logic.
27:12
You got to give a shot to odds logic. 7 day free trial, 50% off
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your first month. Just go to oddslogic.com slash
27:20
Josh 123. Lastly, do you bet through a
27:24
sports woke? You probably do because that's
27:25
basically how you got how you have to bet on sports.
27:28
But there are new things called betting exchanges.
27:30
Instead of betting against the house, you're betting against
27:33
your fellow sports bettors. I don't know about you, but I'd
27:35
rather win or lose money from another better than I would from
27:37
a house who just, you know, Rakes in the money and you know,
27:41
builds castles in the desert, although I like visiting those
27:43
castles in the desert. But anyway, I'd love for you
27:46
guys to give a shot to Novig. No vig, no vigorish, no juice.
27:51
Again, that they're pretty much telling you you're getting
27:52
better numbers because you're betting against other fellow
27:55
betters and peers, not the house.
27:56
But if you want to go to my Twitter page at Josh under score
28:00
Insights, I have a pinned tweet. You can use promo code Josh 123.
28:04
When you sign up with Novig, you deposit your money just like you
28:06
would any other sports book. Then you can make bets with
28:09
better numbers. And the great thing is if you
28:11
win, they're not going to limit you.
28:13
They're not going to kick you out.
28:15
So you can just click that link, that pin tweet on my profile on
28:19
Twitter or you can click the link.
28:20
It's located right in the bio description of the podcast on
28:23
Spotify or iTunes. So that about does it for
28:26
episode 350 of the ASG Pot on a hump day Wednesday.
28:30
As always, guys, two final thoughts, whether I see you at
28:33
the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
28:36
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
28:39
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park,
28:41
Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the woods in
28:45
New England. You're out in the desert where
28:47
the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
28:49
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
28:52
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
28:55
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
28:57
Circa, you're going to walk up to me.
28:58
You're going to show me an Orioles ticket.
29:01
That was nice. But man, Yankees, Padres both
29:04
getting blown up late. Tell me you couldn't get one of
29:06
those. That's baseball for you right
29:08
now. I go take me back to like the
29:10
June, July months when we are, you know, rattling off 3 and OS
29:13
and two and ones. Those are the those are the
29:16
glory days. But either way, guys, we're
29:18
going to keep grinding and hopefully cash some tickets
29:20
tonight. So as always, 1 and 2, two and
29:23
one, O and three, three and O hot, cold, coming off a great
29:26
day, bad day. Again, the key here guys is to
29:29
never get too high. When we're doing well, never get
29:31
too low and we're struggling. Stick to the model, stick to the
29:33
blueprint. We don't have to bet every game.
29:36
We only have to look for the games that fit our model against
29:38
the house or sorry, against the public with the house, with the
29:41
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
29:44
If we can do that, we're going to be successful long term.
29:47
So have a great Wednesday everybody.
29:49
Go Phils and get ready. Starting tomorrow.
29:51
We got more football in our life, which is which is great.
29:54
Have a good luck everybody. I'll see you tomorrow for a
29:56
Thirsty Thursday edition of the ASG Pod, probably episode 351.
30:01
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday night.