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Transcript

Felix Prehn - THE BIGGEST TRADE WE HAVE EVER SEEN… IS IT A TRAP? + Stock Market News 30 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: And the tariff war is back with a vengeance.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: This time, winston's terribly upset about it, as you can tell, and I'm going to explain to you the two reasons why.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: And I will also want to explain to you why the US tax bill has something in it that actually has Wall Street worried and why everything is going to be all right, just like Bob Marley said.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: And I also want to walk you through the biggest opportunity right in front of your noses right now that nobody seems to be talking about.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: If you want to know about that, then let me know in the chat down below by putting a one in there, so I know that you're alive and kicking and not some sort of AI agent or something like that.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to share my screen with you here.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Where is it?
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: There?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: It is as Winston continues to snooze.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: This was the news earlier this morning.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Besson says US-China talks stalled.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Pushes for Trump, she call.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Trump has since put out a tweet which makes it very, very clear Thanks for the ones there, guys Makes it very, very clear that not much love is lost between the US and the Chinese side in terms of negotiating.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Trump calls it something like they, I don't know broke all the promises or something which isn't brilliant the promises or something which isn't brilliant.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: So we're kind of back to where we started on that front, go back to sort of Liberation Day type stuff.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: And then, secondly, the Germans have put a 10% tax on online platforms like Google.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I think I can do that.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: It's a bit offensive, but I am actually German.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, why is that a problem?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Because this whole trade war has a slight flaw from a sort of well righteous standpoint, and that is we're focusing on product trade, products.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: But if you were to look at digital sales as an software and that is where the us has a massive, massive dominance, because everybody in europe is using microsoft and google and all the other us services that's actually where the US has a massive surplus in terms of exports, but on products, they have a massive deficit.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So if the Europeans come out and put taxes on the digital sales, well, it's kind of sneaky and it's kind of smart.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: It's sort of hitting the US where it hurts right between the legs.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And that was going to make the negotiations harder, because Trump isn't going to like this one little bit.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Is he?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Mark says I'm inappropriate and offensive.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Brilliant.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: That was the intention.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So apparently a lot of you guys were offended yesterday because I called some of you degenerate gamblers.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I thought that was a compliment, but apparently it isn't.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: When you call people who invest in GameStop degenerates, they see it as a great compliment, which is sort of funny.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: But apparently gamers not all of them Some of you had a sense of humor, some of you did not, and that's all right.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So what are we going to buy?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: What stocks are you going to buy?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: What stocks are you going to buy?
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Well, before you run out and buy stuff, you might want to learn exactly how to select the winners in this market than in any other market.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: How do we know that?
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Well, wall Street has shown us what the winners are for, like the last 50 years, and they actually have rules.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: They don't just wake up in the morning and they go, oh, I want to buy this stock, quadruple you or whatever the morning and they go, oh, I want to buy this stock trip, quadruple u or whatever.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: And we've been teaching these very rules that I learned from from investment bankers and hedge fund guys the the nice ones.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: We've got about a dozen of them or so in in my mentoring group and it's and those rules that we've been teaching us helping people.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: And this is a student of mine, sharon, who has just bought a house and she was able to pay for it in cash because she's investing the right way.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: And what does she say here?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: She actually wrote me a very long email.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to share all of her private stuff.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I did ask her whether I could share it before I did here, but she just says thank you again.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So much of what you teach is actually learning to overcome fear.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: And then she includes a link to the actual house that she bought, which looks very nice.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: And look at that garden.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: It's not a thing of beauty.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: That's what you can do if you put your money to work.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: And she wasn't some sort of trading wizard before she came to us, by the way.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: She's just a lovely, kind woman who put effort into actually learning and then applied it and then was disciplined.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So it's all down to her.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: All the credit goes to her.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: But it's not possible when you actually know what you're doing.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn that, come and join me this weekend.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: It's the first time ever that we've done one on a Sunday, I believe, uh, felix friends, at org slash webinar, and it literally is for you wage slaves, and if that's offensive to you, then maybe don't bother showing up.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: But if you want to get some real freedom and retire sooner or just better if you already are then come and join us on sunday and I'll also walk you through my actual top buys for the week, which might be useful for you too.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Um, yay, sharon, you, sharon, you're a star.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: She really is.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Honestly, she wrote me the kindest email, very, very long email, the whole story and how it's all done.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: And I don't want to share everything that's personal here sometimes, but, yeah, very, very cool, and you know, we actually get messages like that every single day.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I'm just really, really terrible at sharing those, uh, but, um, I will try to share a few more of those because I think it's inspiring.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I think it's inspiring, right?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So Felix is German.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Yes, there we go right.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Lost all the English audience.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Now They've all turned off, because all they're thinking in their head now is Hitler, hitler, right, that's what happens to English people.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: You have a great education system that does that to people.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: But Winston is a forgiving soul, so he's all right with me, aren't you Winston?
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Yes, winston's all right.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Now there is something in the tax bill which is spooking markets.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Not just what?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Not just what?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Um just happened out there and markets are moderately down, not terribly down, but moderately down just to give you a bit of a heads up there.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Um, and there is a provision in this big beautiful bill, as it's it's called 8 pm.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: 8 pm is, um is always new york time all the time.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: It's always put out as a new york, but when you go to felix friends or webinar, you can select your own time zone.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: If you can't figure that out, but yeah, 8 pm new york time, which should give at least all of you yanks the opportunity to show up.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: And apparently that's an offensive term too.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I didn't really know much about your whole civil war thing, but somebody told me about that.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: He was an American friend.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: He said I think that's very offensive and I said oh, is it Apparently so there we go, offended, some more Americans.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: This is what is offending Wall Street.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: There is a section called 899 in the big beautiful bill, and here is what it does.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: It authorizes the US to put a higher tax rate on dividend and interest income, real property gains, business profits for investors from countries that are discriminatory, from countries that are discriminatory.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So this takes potentially the trade war to a whole other level.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Say you thought Canada was ripping off the US.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: You could then go and say, well, the Canadian Pension Fund, which presumably owns a lot of American stocks, we're going to put a special tax on your capital gains and on your dividends and your interest payments, and that is kind of a weird thing to do, but it's a possibility now.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So it basically means we could get new withholding taxes, holding taxes for countries even that own US assets that could be applied if the US government deems that country discriminatory, and that could be a big deal and that could potentially really freaking backfire, because if you are a foreign country or a foreign investor from one of those countries, you might think, well, maybe I shouldn't invest in the US, and that could potentially lead for a lot of money to leave the US stock market, the US bond market, the US real estate market and so on.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: So it's a very unusual section that people just found, because that bill is 1000 thousand pages long and somebody nobody got to section 899.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Everybody else fell asleep before they got there.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: But somebody got there and was like oh my god does, do people know this is in there?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: And everyone's like I didn't know this was in there.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: And then they asked all the congressmen they said I didn't read it.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: And most of them said I can't read.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: And then now the senators are looking at it and going I don't know about.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: That.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Seems a bit tedious to talk about it.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So it's probably getting passed as law.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So it's an odd one.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: It gives the US government some strange powers to do potentially something very damaging to the market.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: So that's something that we might want to bear in mind.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Now, winston doesn't seem too bothered, does he?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Winston Bothered?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Not too bothered.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: He thinks we can make money in all markets and I think he's right.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Now here is why everything is going to be all right and we're channeling a good old Bob here Marley, not doll.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: And the black line is what happens in election years normally to the stock market, and usually it sort of has a bit of a wobble and then it kind of recovers from sort of May onwards.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And this Trump presidency so far had a bit of a wobble and so far it's doing all right.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: It's doing just slightly worse than usual.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So why does that happen?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Why does the market usually underperform in the first couple of months for presidency?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: It's very simple it's uncertainty.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Fear would be another way to put that.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Can I spell uncertainty?
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Fear is a short four letters I can just about handle.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So because the market is fearful of what.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So because the market is fearful of what Change.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: The market doesn't like change, and the best way to understand that is to just watch the VIX, which today is at 2.4%, which is moderate, but we're at 20, which is better to be below 20.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So a little bit more concern coming in there from Mr Market.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: So watch that, because that's really what matters here.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: And, as I said, we're back to the trade war time that we were at when the market collapsed.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: But today everyone seems to be yeah, we've been there before, we've done that before.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It's not as scary as the last time.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: And that's what happens to people, right?
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: The first time something scary happens to you, it's really scary.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: The second time it's a little bit less scary.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: So there's a lesson in that, I think.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Is there a lesson in that Fear and loathing?
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: 20 is still kind of maybe, okay-ish, well, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe not.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Here is something, though, that I think is a big, shiny radiating opportunity.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: The us nuclear regulatory commission has approved new scale powers, new reactor design.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: The ticker for new scale is smr.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Now has smr gone ballistic pre-market?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: No, actually it's down, which is an odd thing.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Uh, let's see if that happens.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: So I'm not actually investing in particular kind of power companies for design because I think it's a lot of risk whether they work and there's competition and so on.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I'm more looking towards like the uranium behind it.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So like UUU, for example, is on my potential buy list.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Again.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Dropping this morning Doesn't make a lot of sense, but that's okay.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: The market doesn't always make sense on the day, but I think the uranium space is something to look at.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I think we did a video on that sometime last year, but I'd be happy to maybe do another one.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: If you're interested, if you'd be interested in uranium stocks, put a U in the chat there or something that's glowing.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Eurora yeah, that's another one.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: That's an ETF, right, that's one way to tackle it.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: And yeah, that had a nice little breakout here, didn't it?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: It's coming down again here, a bit like the rest of the market.