Crosswire — October 05, 2026
DAILY BRIEFING
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GEOPOLITICS
Canada Is War-Gaming a US Invasion — and Saying So Out Loud
What changed: The Canadian PM confirmed his government has modeled a hypothetical US invasion, framing it as "risk management" after tariffs and repeated "51st state" talk from Washington. A January poll found over 30% of Canadians thought an invasion was likely. The model reportedly has strategic positions falling within a week, followed by guerrilla resistance and appeals to Britain and France.
Why it matters: The scenario itself is near-zero probability — NATO and NORAD integration make it militarily…
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