Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Transcript

Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: 728 on a Tuesday. It's that time of week. Alliterative,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: it is. The Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retired Lieutenant Colonel
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis podcast. You can find him wherever you get
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: your podcasts. Every Tuesday here at 830 on the 55
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: KRC Morning Show, we get the benefit of his thoughtful
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: analysis on things warfare, like what's going on with Iran
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: and the United States. Welcome back, Daniel Davis, my friend.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: It's good to see you and good to have you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: back on the program.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Always good to be here, Brian. Thanks for having me back.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Did I say wash, rinse, repeat ever when we started out?
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We're tit for tat. We blew up a few Iranian
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: oil tankers. I guess the blockade's still in effect. Iran
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: responds by launching attacks on Saudi's Aramco facilities, which I think,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: and correct me if I'm wrong, that seems to be
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the message that's being projected by the Iranians now. We
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: are going to go after all of the oil infrastructure
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: of all the various countries that are surrounding us, including
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: the Saudis, if you pick on us, if you hit us.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe I missed something on that, but obviously it's driving.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that was actually Ansar Allah, the Houthis that attacked
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: the Saudi Aramco targets, and that was in direct response
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: to 121 Saudi attacks into the Houthis areas throughout Yemen, etc.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: And so those are kind of.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Separate issues, but they're obviously core— associated, but they're not
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: directly coordinated. Ansar Allah has their own issue going on
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: with Saudi Arabia, has since 2015. So that's been kind
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: of simmering in the background. But you are correct that
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Iran has said that any further attacks against their, especially
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: against the oil tankers, which the U.S.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Hit after the.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Last round when Saudi, I'm sorry, Iran attacked some U.S.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: warships with a couple of missiles. The U.S. response was
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: to hit Iranian oil tankers, and Iran has now said
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: that any further action like that will respond in hitting
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: the energy structure everywhere else. So far that hasn't been tested,
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: but I wouldn't put my money on them not doing it.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Well, what is the current situation with the Iranian oil?
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: I just saw this article in the Wall Street Journal,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Georgi Kanchev and Somerset, Iran's oil dollars drying up. It
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: seems to me that the Iranian oil is stuck. And
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: they've run out of places to put the stuff that's
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: out of the ground, so they're winding down the output
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: from their wells. Some have previously suggested doing that may
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: render those wells useless in the future. But inflation's run away.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: The people are dealing with tremendous economic struggles. The rial
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: is down significantly. I have listened to you and your
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: comments about the Iranians really being tough and having thick
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: skin and callous. They've dealt with this before, and I
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: believe it. They're certainly going to outlast the November elections
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: in this economic warfare. But where do you see it
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: going from here? One report showed that, and this is
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: something I've kind of been expecting, it takes time to
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: come up with alternative routes. But United Arab Emirates apparently
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: is getting its oil out without having to use the straits.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: So there are alternative paths that are developing. Ultimately, I
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: guess with the hope they're going to leave the Iranians
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: an isolated state. Daniel? Yeah, it's not zero.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: There is Iranian oil getting out through various forces. I mean,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: they have 3,000 kilometers of land border and then rail junctions,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: et cetera.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: There's the Caspian Sea.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: And there are still some ships getting through one way
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: or the other, leakers or whatever. It's not a huge amount.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: But the problem is that the overall Persian Gulf is
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: still about 40% of what it was pre-war. And some
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: days it's not even that much. So It's better than
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: it was for our side, but it is definitely not
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: what it needs to be. And now you see with
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: Saudi Aramco getting hit because a lot of theirs has
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: been going out through the Red Sea. With the Houthis
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: having some action over there, that also is starting to
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: go down. And everything matters about the global amount going on.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: So we may brag about knocking down a lot of
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: the Iranian oil, but that still keeps it off the
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: global market. And that's a problem for everybody. So this
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: is not solving any problem and drifting along at 40%, 30%.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: That's not going to help the global economy because we
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: still are using down our strategic petroleum reserves. So we've
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: got to stop that or this is not going to
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: help us out long term. whether the midterms happen or not.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, whether this happens before or after the midterms.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Well, and I saw Iran has just released this new
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: restricted zone, I guess, in their mind, defining where the
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: oil can ferry through or not. Do they really have
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: any control on declaring this? It seems like it just
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: came out of nowhere, and this is the way it is,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: but we're still blocking their ports, and we're still trying
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: to use American military ships and U.S. forces to ferry
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: boats out along the southern route. I Does this mean anything,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: their most recent declaration?
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: It does, precisely because of what you just pointed out,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: that UAE and some others are succeeding at getting oil
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: out without having to go through the strait. So they're
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: out through Fujairah and some of the other ports that
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: are further south of that. And so the Iranians are saying, okay,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: we're going to extend the zone. Instead of just in
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: the strait itself, we're going to extend it further to
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: the Gulf of Oman side. so that it covers that
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: area there. They have, of course, all kinds of long-range drones,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: long-range missiles, medium-range, short-range, etc. They've got plenty of ordnance
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: to bring that under attack, so we'll see if they
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: actually do it. But they definitely have the capacity if
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: they want to extend that zone to those areas as well.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Does it seem to you that the number of attacks
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: from the Iranian side has waned a little? I just...
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I know we were talking about tit-for-tat warfare, and, you know,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: if you hit one of our boats, we're going to
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: launch a strike at something. But it seems the Iranians,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: they talk a loud game about their ability to launch
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: a larger-scale attack, and they, of course, have threatened it,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: that they haven't done that, though. Does that suggest anything
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: to you, Daniel? Well, they haven't.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, they have obviously done it before, and we
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: were unable to stop it. So the missiles are still
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: the same issue as before, is that they're not intercepting
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: that much, and the Iranian stuff is getting through. What
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: they have done still is hit periodic oil tankers, but
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: they have not yet gone back again after hard targets
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: like the Kuwait or Saudi Arabia or U.S. stations or Jordan, etc.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Those are still in the crosshairs. And we can only
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: surmise as to why they haven't done that yet. But
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: here in the last 48 hours, they've been a lot
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: more verbose in claiming that they're going to hit all
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: those things again the next time something gets hit. And
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, they can do it. We don't know why
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: they have withheld so far, but we'll see what happens
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: because it's inevitable. There's definitely going to be another one
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: because understand we need to keep in mind. There is
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: no ceasefire. There's no memorandum of understanding.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: That's all expired.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: There is a state of war, but it's just kind
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: of like, well, now what? Because there's no end, but
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: there's also, it's just kind of a lull period. We
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: don't know if this is a lull while they're building
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: up stockpile and they're getting ready to hit. Does it
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: mean that they're losing capacity? I mean, we can guess
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: to that. I would think it's probably the former than
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: the latter.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I think we can all assume that there's some significant
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: economic problems going on within the Iranians. The global sanctions
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: have brought that about. Their inflation is obvious. But is
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: there an exit strategy? Considering this, if we could call
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: this current, what was going on right now, a stalemate.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's an accurate thing, but it
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like any side is giving anything and we're
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: not going anywhere. We're just sort of sitting in the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: same cycle right now with ports being blockaded and occasional
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: bomb blowing off and the obviously instability and insecurity that
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: the shipping companies are having so nothing's really going through
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: by comparison what's an exit strategy daniel have you come
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: up with one anybody consult you on that yeah.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Well there is one and it was called the memorandum
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: of understanding that was going to work for literally everyone
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: but there are too many people that don't want anything
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: to work for the iranian side they only want it
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: to work for our side And that's going to be
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: kind of a big stick in the mud because the
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: Iranians aren't going to are going to participate in something
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: that only they lose from and that the U.S. side
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: wins slash Israelis. And so we're going to have to
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: find some kind of mutual beneficial or acceptable way out.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: And right now. President Trump just tweeted out yesterday, or
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: true social doubt, that no, Iran is going to lose.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: And once they lose, then all the oil will come out.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: So he kind of ran the rhetoric back up and said,
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: you know, we're not even looking for a negotiated settlement.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: We're just going to win. And militarily, that's... There's no
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: path to win, so I don't know what he means
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: by that, but that is not moving us in the
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: direction of getting this over.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Well, clearly they have leverage. That they have leverage suggests
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: if you want to negotiate some sort of resolution, you're
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: going to have to make some kind of concession to
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: acknowledge the leverage that they've got. Well, you would think.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the way that rational people would think.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you, the frustrating part for me, Brian, is
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: that we have that in our hand with the MOU.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: That was going to work for us. That was going
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: to work for everybody. Iran still would never have had
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: a chance to go to a nuclear weapon. All of
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: our weapons are still there. We can still go back
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: and hit Pickaxe Mountain if we needed to and all
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. None of that would have changed,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: but the oil would have been flowing again. We had
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: a deal on the table, and I don't understand why
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: we got rid of it by going back to it
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: attacking again.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So now here we are.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: There is right now that is, I mean, I guess
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: a stalemate is really the only thing you can accurately
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: call this because it's not resolved. There's no action diplomatically
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: to get it resolved. There's no military action going on.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: There's no military solution.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Even if we tried.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: So that leaves us in this weird place where there's
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: about 40% or so getting out, and you've got to
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: buy hook and buy crook, but you can't base your
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: global economy off of that. And look, we're already in
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: a diesel crisis. We're in a jet fuel crisis. Now
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: that it has started to bite... European carriers are starting
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: to trim their long-range routes, and the prices are starting
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: to go up too. There's just not enough of that
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: coming out. Forty percent won't cut it, Brian. And, you know,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: now you have the issue in Russia with the Russia-Ukraine
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: war that because of their Ukrainian strikes on the Russian infrastructure,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: they're not exporting any diesel, which is compounding the problem.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: So that means your diesel goes up. right there, you know,
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: in the good old U.S. of A. So it affects everybody.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: This is not sustainable is the bottom line.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: No question about it. If only we would build more
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: refineries to maybe deal with some of the ups and
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: downs in diesel. Moving away from that, though, and I'm
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: glad you pivoted over to Russia and Ukraine. The AFD
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: won that very large province in Germany. It is described
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: widely as a pro-Russian movement, the AFD. I know they're conservative.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I know they crack down on borders. They believe in
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: border security and they appreciate what's going on in the
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: European Union. But What does it mean that if that
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: party were to take over Germany, get a ruling coalition perhaps,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: since they are leaning pro-Russia in this conflict, is that
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: significant or is it symbolic?
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: It's huge. It's hugely significant. And it's not that they're
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: pro-Russia per se. They're saying, let's just have normalized relations
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: with Russia so we're not antagonistic against them, so we're
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: not basically setting ourselves up for potential future war against Russia.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: That sentiment is starting to spread everywhere. among the people
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: throughout Europe. And that's a major shot across the bow
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: because the current ruling government in Germany better start paying
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: attention instead of just saying, oh, we're trying to outlaw them.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: That's never going to work. That has already, because of
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: the warnings that that the government has given right now
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: against the AFD. It's just making more people go to them. And,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: you know, you have similar issues going on in France.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Marie Le Pen may finally break through and win the
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: next presidential election. They're trending in that direction because the
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: people are sick and tired of these stupid wars and
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: supporting war that can't be won against the largest nuclear
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: superpower on the planet. And they're tired of spending all
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: their money on something that can't succeed and doesn't need
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: to be fought. And I think if the governments that
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: are currently in place right now They'll start paying a
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: lot more attention a lot faster. This is going to
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: go south for them.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: It's true. And when your population has already a diminished
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: perception of your government, and then your government says you
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: can't be a member of a particular party or we're
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: going to outlaw it, obviously that's marketing for AFD without question.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: I get that point. You're telling me what? Something must
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: be good over there that they're offering if this government
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is telling me I can't have it. Daniel Davis, Deep Dive,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: find his podcast wherever you find your podcasts. Find him
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: here on the 55KRC Morning Show on Tuesdays beginning at 830.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Always a fascinating conversation, my friend. I'll look forward to
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: next week doing it again.