Latest / HEATED / Who’s telling you climate change is no big deal?
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: Last year,
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump's Energy Secretary,
- 0:02SPEAKER_01: Chris Wright, delivered a message to Americans about climate change.
- 0:06SPEAKER_02: Climate change for impacting the quality of your life is not incredibly important.
- 0:10SPEAKER_02: In fact, if it wasn't in the news and the media, you wouldn't know it.
- 0:14SPEAKER_01: It's an interesting statement to revisit now after a summer
- 0:17SPEAKER_01: of record-breaking floods and droughts and wildfires and scientists predicting
- 0:22SPEAKER_01: that 2026 will be the hottest year on record.
- 0:26SPEAKER_01: But hey, what does that matter?
- 0:27SPEAKER_01: Wright, who was a fracking executive prior to becoming energy secretary,
- 0:31SPEAKER_01: is dedicated to spreading this idea.
- 0:34SPEAKER_01: Here's him speaking about climate this past May.
- 0:37SPEAKER_02: It's like a real thing, but it's no big deal.
- 0:39SPEAKER_02: It's nowhere close to the world's top five or ten problems.
- 0:43SPEAKER_01: Now, look, I expect to hear stuff like this from Chris Wright.
- 0:47SPEAKER_01: People in the fossil fuel business,
- 0:49SPEAKER_01: their wealth and their power depend on climate change not being a big deal.
- 0:53SPEAKER_01: So I don't normally give statements like these a lot of credit or even attention.
- 0:57SPEAKER_01: But lately,
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: I've been hearing this argument a lot more from just regular people
- 1:02SPEAKER_01: who also increasingly seem to believe that the climate problem has been exaggerated.
- 1:08SPEAKER_01: And I think I know why.
- 1:10SPEAKER_02: The United Nations Climate Committee now says its worst case scenario is implausible.
- 1:16SPEAKER_01: The United Nations is widely backed away from its most extreme climate doomsday scenarios.
- 1:21SPEAKER_02: We just found out the other day that the U.N.
- 1:24SPEAKER_02: rescinded all dire predictions regarding climate predictions.
- 1:28SPEAKER_01: All these quotes from Fox News were part of a conservative media blitz
- 1:32SPEAKER_01: that happened earlier this summer.
- 1:34SPEAKER_01: And they all stemmed from a very real, very nerdy piece of news.
- 1:38SPEAKER_01: Back in May,
- 1:39SPEAKER_01: an international group of scientists whose job is to create climate models announced
- 1:45SPEAKER_01: that they would be updating the climate scenarios used
- 1:48SPEAKER_01: for future United Nations climate reports.
- 1:51SPEAKER_01: And in that update,
- 1:52SPEAKER_01: they said they'd no longer be using the worst-case scenario they'd previously relied
- 1:57SPEAKER_01: on.
- 1:58SPEAKER_01: A scenario commonly referred to as RCP 8.5.
- 2:02SPEAKER_01: To right-wing media, this update was a bombshell.
- 2:05SPEAKER_01: It was a confession.
- 2:07SPEAKER_01: It meant that scientists admitted they'd been exaggerating the danger
- 2:10SPEAKER_01: of climate change all along.
- 2:13SPEAKER_01: And now they're saying, actually, there was never anything to worry about.
- 2:16SPEAKER_02: There needs to be a reckoning for that.
- 2:18SPEAKER_02: What would be a reckoning?
- 2:19SPEAKER_02: They should be forced to go around to schools and tell young people,
- 2:22SPEAKER_02: you don't have to be worried about climate change.
- 2:24SPEAKER_02: You know that's not going to happen.
- 2:25SPEAKER_01: Except what Fox News is describing is not what happened at all.
- 2:30SPEAKER_01: So today we're going to tell you the actual story of what happened with RCP 8.5.
- 2:35SPEAKER_01: The real version, the nerdy version that Fox News would never tell you.
- 2:39SPEAKER_01: And we're going to show you how a genuinely good piece of climate news got twisted.
- 2:45SPEAKER_01: Into yet another argument for doing nothing.
- 2:47SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Heated, a show about climate change and the forces standing in the way of action.
- 2:52SPEAKER_01: I'm Emily Atkin.
- 2:53SPEAKER_01: This season, we're debunking some of the worst climate myths plaguing society today.
- 2:58SPEAKER_01: Today's myth, that climate change might be real, but scientists have exaggerated the danger.
- 3:03[music]
- 3:09SPEAKER_01: To understand what actually happened with RCP 8.5 and the state of our climate
- 3:15SPEAKER_01: in general,
- 3:16SPEAKER_01: I wanted to talk to an actual climate scientist,
- 3:19SPEAKER_01: someone who day in and day out works with climate models like RCP 8.5
- 3:24SPEAKER_01: to figure out how greenhouse gases might affect our world.
- 3:28SPEAKER_01: So I called up Kate Marvel,
- 3:30SPEAKER_01: a senior climate scientist at Project Drawdown and veteran climate modeler who spent
- 3:34SPEAKER_01: over a decade tracking planet warming trends at NASA.
- 3:38SPEAKER_01: First thing I wanted to know, is climate change still a big deal anymore?
- 3:44SPEAKER_01: Or like, is it chill now?
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't want to be rude, but like, have you gone outside ever this year?
- 3:55SPEAKER_00: Yes, it is still a big thing.
- 3:57SPEAKER_00: Emissions are still rising.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: Europe has been absolutely slammed by heat waves.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: We have had fires.
- 4:05SPEAKER_00: We have had poor air quality.
- 4:07SPEAKER_00: So in my opinion...
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: I feel like that's kind of a big deal.
- 4:11SPEAKER_01: Okay, okay.
- 4:11SPEAKER_01: Climate change is obviously affecting us right now.
- 4:15SPEAKER_01: Literally look out the window.
- 4:16SPEAKER_01: But what about the future?
- 4:18SPEAKER_01: According to Fox News, scientists retracted their prediction of future climate catastrophe.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: Except, Kate says, RCPA 0.5?
- 4:28SPEAKER_01: That was never a prediction.
- 4:30SPEAKER_00: When you talk about the future,
- 4:32SPEAKER_00: you need to be so careful to say this is a projection, not a prediction.
- 4:38SPEAKER_00: Nobody can predict human choices, human societies.
- 4:42SPEAKER_00: Nobody can predict what are politics,
- 4:44SPEAKER_00: what are economics,
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: Our technologies are going to look like all the way into the future.
- 4:48SPEAKER_00: And we as physicists don't even try to do that.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: We don't make predictions.
- 4:53SPEAKER_00: We make projections.
- 4:55SPEAKER_00: And the reason that that distinction is so important is that
- 5:00SPEAKER_00: a projection is conditional on something happening.
- 5:04SPEAKER_00: So we say, if you do this, then this is what the climate will look like.
- 5:10SPEAKER_01: RCP 8.5 stands for Representative Concentration Pathway.
- 5:15SPEAKER_01: And the 8.5 is not a temperature measurement.
- 5:19SPEAKER_01: It refers to a measure of radiative forcing.
- 5:22SPEAKER_01: It's extremely nerdy.
- 5:24SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to get into all of it.
- 5:25SPEAKER_01: But what it was, was a scenario.
- 5:28SPEAKER_01: So RCP 8.5 is a story, is a speculative story in which...
- 5:43SPEAKER_00: People burn coal like crazy.
- 5:46SPEAKER_00: People dig up coal right now that is not economically feasible to extract and set it on fire.
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: There is massive development in oil and gas.
- 5:56SPEAKER_00: There is massive increase in demand for energy.
- 6:00SPEAKER_01: And if the world did that,
- 6:02SPEAKER_01: the RCP 8.5 scenario projected roughly 4 to 5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end
- 6:08SPEAKER_01: of the century.
- 6:10SPEAKER_01: A truly catastrophic amount of warming.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: What are the upper bounds of what humans could do?
- 6:16SPEAKER_00: And let's investigate how the climate system responds to really,
- 6:21SPEAKER_00: really, really big outside influences.
- 6:25SPEAKER_00: You know, how does the Earth change when it gets backed with a hammer?
- 6:29SPEAKER_01: In journalism and in science communication,
- 6:31SPEAKER_01: the RCPA 8.5 scenario was often used to talk about the worst-case scenario
- 6:36SPEAKER_01: of climate change.
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: But the intention was not to predict that those things would happen.
- 6:42SPEAKER_01: It was to warn that it could happen if humanity keeps expanding fossil fuels
- 6:47SPEAKER_01: at this extreme rate.
- 6:49SPEAKER_01: Then, this is how much the planet would warm.
- 6:52SPEAKER_01: But listen to how Fox News and others have twisted that distinction.
- 6:56SPEAKER_02: The original forecast predicted a drastic rise in sea levels,
- 7:00SPEAKER_02: rapidly melting glaciers, global crop failures, and even the extinction of mankind.
- 7:06SPEAKER_02: Now,
- 7:06SPEAKER_02: they have been thinking that temperatures would go up by eight degrees Fahrenheit by
- 7:10SPEAKER_02: the end of this century.
- 7:12SPEAKER_02: All of these predictions made by the United Nations and many others,
- 7:17SPEAKER_02: often for bad reasons,
- 7:19SPEAKER_01: But again, RCP 8.5 was not a prediction.
- 7:24SPEAKER_01: And further than that, Kate argues it wasn't even retracted.
- 7:28SPEAKER_00: I don't think this scenario got retracted.
- 7:31SPEAKER_00: I think that is kind of a...
- 7:35SPEAKER_00: A misnomer, almost.
- 7:36SPEAKER_00: I think what happened is there was a reassessment by the people who make these scenarios.
- 7:43SPEAKER_00: And they said, hey, this scenario no longer seems like it's very likely.
- 7:50SPEAKER_00: And so let's not use it anymore as we go forward and tell the next generation
- 7:57SPEAKER_00: of climate models different stories.
- 8:00SPEAKER_01: This is something scientists do every time they prepare a new generation of climate models.
- 8:05SPEAKER_01: They update their what-if stories to reflect what has changed in the real world.
- 8:11SPEAKER_01: The last major update was about a decade ago,
- 8:13SPEAKER_01: and it still included a future as extreme as RCP 8.5.
- 8:18SPEAKER_01: Now this one doesn't because the world has changed.
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: And that is actually really good news.
- 8:26SPEAKER_01: Because at one point it absolutely was feasible that the world could go all in
- 8:31SPEAKER_01: on fossil fuels and not do anything about climate change whatsoever.
- 8:34SPEAKER_01: So journalists and climate communicators talked about these worst case scenarios
- 8:38SPEAKER_01: and what they would mean.
- 8:40SPEAKER_01: And in response, the world changed.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: If you had told me at the beginning of my career,
- 9:01SPEAKER_00: But here's the thing,
- 9:02SPEAKER_00: just because those solutions now exist and scientists aren't using RCP 8.5 anymore,
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: that doesn't mean climate change is no longer a problem.
- 9:24SPEAKER_00: It actually means the opposite, right?
- 9:26SPEAKER_00: It means that those solutions exist.
- 9:28SPEAKER_00: They are cheap, they are good, they are better, they are cleaner.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: And we can and should deploy them much, much, much quicker than we are doing now.
- 9:38SPEAKER_01: Because even though scientists aren't using RCP 8.5 anymore,
- 9:43SPEAKER_01: they're still examining other potentially dangerous and feasible futures.
- 9:48SPEAKER_01: They've just replaced the old scenario with a new set
- 9:52SPEAKER_01: of scenarios spanning everything from very low emissions to very high emissions.
- 9:57SPEAKER_01: The new high emissions scenario imagines a world
- 10:00SPEAKER_01: where countries roll back their climate policies,
- 10:03SPEAKER_01: energy demand keeps rising because of things like, I don't know, AI.
- 10:08SPEAKER_01: And renewables can't keep up with that demand.
- 10:11SPEAKER_00: Something like the high scenario right now has renewable energy being deployed,
- 10:16SPEAKER_00: but it's being rapidly outpaced by growing demand.
- 10:21SPEAKER_01: Now,
- 10:21SPEAKER_01: scientists haven't finished running these new scenarios through the new generation
- 10:25SPEAKER_01: of climate models, so the final warming projections don't exist yet.
- 10:30SPEAKER_01: But preliminary estimates suggest that the new high-end scenario,
- 10:34SPEAKER_01: the new worst case,
- 10:36SPEAKER_01: could produce close to 3.5 degrees of warming by the end of the century.
- 10:40SPEAKER_01: And because of uncertainty about how the planet will respond,
- 10:43SPEAKER_01: warming above 4 degrees is still possible.
- 10:47SPEAKER_01: That is still absolutely catastrophic.
- 10:50SPEAKER_00: I think worrying slightly less than before because we have replaced coal with solar,
- 10:57SPEAKER_00: that is defensible.
- 10:59SPEAKER_00: But I don't think we should worry zero.
- 11:02SPEAKER_00: In fact, I think we should worry a lot.
- 11:04SPEAKER_01: And here's something else I think is important,
- 11:05SPEAKER_01: but not talked about by obviously anyone in Fox News or anyone agreeing with them.
- 11:11SPEAKER_01: The range of scenarios didn't only change at the terrifying end of things.
- 11:16SPEAKER_01: Scientists also moved away from the old best-case scenario future,
- 11:21SPEAKER_01: the one where humanity avoids exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming altogether.
- 11:26SPEAKER_00: I think it's fair to say the world turned out to be better than we feared,
- 11:30SPEAKER_00: but worse than we hoped.
- 11:32SPEAKER_01: Now, I'm not saying there aren't legitimate criticisms of RCP 8.5.
- 11:37SPEAKER_01: There certainly are.
- 11:39SPEAKER_01: For one thing,
- 11:40SPEAKER_01: journalists and climate communicators should have never presented RCP 8.5
- 11:45SPEAKER_01: as business as usual or the future that humanity was definitely heading towards.
- 11:51SPEAKER_00: Nobody should call it business as usual.
- 11:53SPEAKER_00: Nobody should call it the most likely outcome because we honestly have no idea.
- 11:59SPEAKER_01: But some scientists and journalists did call RCP 8.5 business as usual.
- 12:04SPEAKER_01: And I know that because I searched through all of my reporting from
- 12:07SPEAKER_01: the last 13 years for the words RCP 8.5.
- 12:10SPEAKER_01: And I found an example from 2015 where I did that.
- 12:14SPEAKER_01: I think it's fair to ask journalists and climate communications.
- 12:29SPEAKER_00: There are also fair questions about why RCP 8.5 continued to appear so frequently
- 12:33SPEAKER_00: in scientific research and news coverage,
- 12:34SPEAKER_00: especially in the last five years or
- 12:37SPEAKER_00: when its assumptions looked increasingly not likely to occur.
- 12:40SPEAKER_00: But that's
- 12:56SPEAKER_01: An entirely different, nuanced conversation than the one happening across media right now.
- 13:03SPEAKER_01: After the break,
- 13:04SPEAKER_01: how the story of RCP 8.5 became evidence of a supposed climate conspiracy and
- 13:11SPEAKER_01: who benefits from telling that story.
- 13:17SPEAKER_02: This episode of Heated is brought to you by the American Petroleum Institute.
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- 14:00SPEAKER_02: So let's get back to the program.
- 14:03SPEAKER_01: Before the break,
- 14:03SPEAKER_01: Kate Marvel described a real debate about RCP 8.5,
- 14:08SPEAKER_01: whether scientists and journalists sometimes gave
- 14:10SPEAKER_01: an extreme scenario too much weight.
- 14:13SPEAKER_01: And that conversation matters.
- 14:15SPEAKER_01: But it is not what the Fox News clips you heard earlier have been doing.
- 14:19SPEAKER_01: And it's certainly not what Trump was doing on May 16th when he posted
- 14:22SPEAKER_01: on Truth Social, good riddance.
- 14:24SPEAKER_01: After 15 years of Democrats promising that climate change is going to destroy
- 14:29SPEAKER_01: the planet,
- 14:30SPEAKER_01: the United Nations top climate committee just admitted that its own projections,
- 14:35SPEAKER_01: RCP 8.5, were wrong, wrong, wrong.
- 14:39SPEAKER_01: So how did an update to an extremely technical climate modeling scenario
- 14:50SPEAKER_01: That's what Philip Newell has been investigating.
- 14:53SPEAKER_01: Philip is the communications co-chair of Climate Action Against Disinformation.
- 14:57SPEAKER_01: In a new report shared with Heated before publication,
- 15:00SPEAKER_01: he traced how the RCP 8.5 story moved through a network
- 15:05SPEAKER_01: of fossil fuel-connected pundits, think tanks, and media outlets.
- 15:09SPEAKER_03: We found that a network
- 15:10SPEAKER_03: of ultimately fossil fuel funded disinfluencers were spinning what was
- 15:16SPEAKER_03: a success story of renewables saving us from the worst into the further conspiracy
- 15:21SPEAKER_03: of scientists exaggerating.
- 15:23SPEAKER_03: But there's no problem at all.
- 15:25SPEAKER_01: Phillips' report doesn't describe one secret meeting where all
- 15:29SPEAKER_01: the fossil fuel cronies came together and received the same talking points
- 15:33SPEAKER_01: and agreed that they'd go disseminate them.
- 15:35SPEAKER_01: What it describes is more like a fossil fuel connected ecosystem
- 15:39SPEAKER_01: where misinformation grows and spreads.
- 15:43SPEAKER_03: It's really a constellation of people that the idea is to make a viewer think
- 15:47SPEAKER_03: that it's a lot of different people, different experts from different places.
- 15:51SPEAKER_03: What you look at it is a lot of these different experts have ties one way or another
- 15:54SPEAKER_03: to the fossil fuel industry.
- 15:56SPEAKER_01: One person Philip's report focuses on is Roger Peelke Jr.,
- 16:00SPEAKER_01: a political scientist who has pushed the argument
- 16:02SPEAKER_01: that RCP 8.5 demonstrates systemic exaggeration by climate scientists.
- 16:08SPEAKER_03: I think he does deserve credit in pushing this for quite a while, yeah.
- 16:10SPEAKER_01: Heelke works for the American Enterprise Institute.
- 16:14SPEAKER_03: They have a long history of taking funding from the tobacco and fossil fuel industries.
- 16:19SPEAKER_01: Versions of the same message appeared across fossil fuel-funded
- 16:23SPEAKER_01: and fossil fuel-connected think tanks and digital media outlets,
- 16:26SPEAKER_01: including The Daily Caller, The Daily Wire, The Daily Signal, and Breitbart.
- 16:31SPEAKER_01: It reached the far-right AFD party in Germany, then Trump's Truth Social Feed, then Fox News.
- 16:38SPEAKER_03: They build an ecosystem that rewards those messages and those narratives,
- 16:42SPEAKER_03: and then they can sort of choose from whoever says, ooh, I'm willing to say that.
- 16:47SPEAKER_01: Philip calls this a disinformation subsidy.
- 16:50SPEAKER_01: Sometimes the subsidy is money.
- 16:52SPEAKER_01: Sometimes it's free legal or advertising support.
- 16:54SPEAKER_01: Sometimes it's just attention or access to powerful people or an invitation
- 16:59SPEAKER_01: to appear on television.
- 17:00SPEAKER_01: And social media allows those claims to spread unchecked.
- 17:04SPEAKER_01: So they look like common popular opinion.
- 17:07SPEAKER_03: That's very much been social and digital media that allows those kind of claims
- 17:11SPEAKER_03: that would get fact checked out of mainstream media or out of
- 17:14SPEAKER_03: a peer reviewed journal.
- 17:15SPEAKER_03: It allows them to circulate and bubble up.
- 17:17SPEAKER_01: Phillips report contains a striking example of what happened after Trump's post about RCP 8.5.
- 17:24SPEAKER_01: One climate organization in the United Kingdom analyzed the comments on its Facebook pages.
- 17:30SPEAKER_01: On a regular week before Trump posted about RCP 8.5,
- 17:34SPEAKER_01: only 6.5% of the comments contained climate denial.
- 17:38SPEAKER_01: But after Trump's post, that rose to 48.6% of the comments, nearly eight times as high.
- 17:46SPEAKER_01: Now,
- 17:46SPEAKER_01: that's certainly not evidence that half the public suddenly became climate deniers,
- 17:51SPEAKER_01: but it is evidence that a relatively small number of activated accounts can make
- 17:55SPEAKER_01: a marginal position feel enormous.
- 17:59SPEAKER_03: And Philip says they don't actually need that many people to join that chorus.
- 18:09SPEAKER_03: They don't need a whole ton of people to believe it.
- 18:12SPEAKER_03: They need just enough people to justify the political inaction to continue.
- 18:16SPEAKER_03: So around the world,
- 18:17SPEAKER_03: we've seen polling published in Nature,
- 18:20SPEAKER_03: 89% of the global public wants more climate action from our governments, right?
- 18:25SPEAKER_03: So 89% versus 11%, that's pretty lopsided.
- 18:28SPEAKER_03: But the industry makes that 11% feel like it's so much more.
- 18:32SPEAKER_01: Because the point of all this isn't necessarily to convince you that climate change is fake.
- 18:38SPEAKER_01: It's just to make you uncertain about whether it's serious enough to require action right now.
- 18:45SPEAKER_03: Let's wait and see and just see how things shake out.
- 18:49SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah, because that continues to buy them more time with the status quo.
- 18:52SPEAKER_03: And that is what it's all about,
- 18:54SPEAKER_03: is keeping that status quo of a fossil-fueled sort of world,
- 18:58SPEAKER_03: venting the new incomers, right?
- 19:00SPEAKER_03: It's preserving their monopoly on energy in any way they possibly can.
- 19:05SPEAKER_01: Regardless of what the scientists and people at Fox News say,
- 19:09SPEAKER_01: we don't actually need climate models to know what is happening right in front
- 19:13SPEAKER_01: of our faces.
- 19:14SPEAKER_01: The first eight months of 2026 have been the hottest period ever recorded for
- 19:20SPEAKER_01: the contiguous United States.
- 19:22SPEAKER_01: Scientists have called it extremely and concerningly hot.
- 19:27SPEAKER_01: On August 26th,
- 19:29SPEAKER_01: Nepal experienced a flash flood caused by a melting glacier that collapsed,
- 19:34SPEAKER_01: killing more than 1,300 people while 5,000 more remain missing.
- 19:40SPEAKER_01: This was a climate disaster.
- 19:44SPEAKER_01: And this is why the myth matters.
- 19:46SPEAKER_01: People like Chris Wright and other pundits on Fox News,
- 19:50SPEAKER_01: they're not trying to convince you that climate change is fake.
- 19:53SPEAKER_01: Their goal is just to convince you that this can wait.
- 19:57SPEAKER_01: We don't need to do anything about this right now.
- 20:00SPEAKER_01: These individuals have built their wealth and power around the lie
- 20:04SPEAKER_01: that climate change isn't a big deal when all the evidence points to the contrary.
- 20:10SPEAKER_01: The real story of RCP 8.5 is one of success.
- 20:15SPEAKER_01: The world recognized the danger it was heading towards, and it changed course.
- 20:21SPEAKER_01: The solutions?
- 20:22SPEAKER_01: They're better and they're cheaper than they've ever been.
- 20:25SPEAKER_01: But the problem is that now the best case scenario has been taken off the table too.
- 20:30SPEAKER_01: So the strength of our solution continues to be diminished by the power of our opposition.
- 20:37SPEAKER_01: So if we want to fight it,
- 20:38SPEAKER_01: we have to start by pushing back on this lie and flooding the zone with the facts.
- 20:45SPEAKER_01: I'm Emily Atkin and this is Heated.
- 20:47SPEAKER_01: Thanks for listening.
- 20:49SPEAKER_01: We'll be back with another myth debunking episode soon.
- 20:52SPEAKER_01: Thanks for your support.
- 20:54SPEAKER_01: Please like, follow,
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- 21:00SPEAKER_01: a paid subscriber.
- 21:02SPEAKER_01: Thanks so much and I'll see you next time.