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What Happens When ALL 21 Million Bitcoin are Mined? | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  What happens after the last Bitcoin is mined?
• 0:02
  It's not 2140 that you actually have to worry about, it might be
• 0:05
  much earlier than that, 2032. If miners walk away and adoption
• 0:09
  stalls, Bitcoin can crash to 000 dollars.
• 0:15
  But if nation states pile in, it could hit $1 million, and some
• 0:20
  people think that'll be as early as next week.
• 0:22
  This isn't a future fantasy. This is a fork in the road that
• 0:25
  we're speeding towards Now. Let's imagine tonight the faucet
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  shuts off. No new Bitcoin, no minor
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  paycheck. If block space is auction only,
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  what's the opening bid, $30 or 30,000?
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  And if no one is willing to pay, does Bitcoin flatline before
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  breakfast? Strap in.
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  We're rewinding 130 years of monetary engineering to find out
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  exactly what you and whole nations will cough up for a
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  single on chain transaction when the last satoshi is mine.
• 0:57
  I said strap in, but also buckle up.
• 0:59
  Don't. Forget to buckle up out there in
• 1:01
  Radioland. My motions.
• 1:02
  This is beyond Bitcoin. Let's dive in. 1st we should
• 1:12
  start with what is Bitcoin mining?
• 1:13
  And to explain, here's the CEO of SAS Mining, Kent Halliburton.
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  Bitcoin mining is the only way that new Bitcoin are generated.
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  They're generated through the consumption of electricity.
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  Now why do they do that is a separate question.
• 1:27
  But in essence, Bitcoin is a decentralized Ledger.
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  There's 10s of thousands of nodes that keep a copy of this
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  digital Ledger. And that digital Ledger is a
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  blockchain. It's made-up of blocks of
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  transactions every 10 minutes. The protocol regulates it so
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  that a new block is found by the miners.
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  And how that specifically works is that a random number has to
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  be guessed by crunching all the data in that block of
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  transactions and I guess has to be perfect and is very difficult
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  to be perfect. And so we have trillions and
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  trillions of guesses that occur, and those guesses take
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  computational power and that consumes electricity.
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  So that process is what mining actually is.
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  How many sets are left on the clock?
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  Bitcoin miners are paid what's called a block reward.
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  That block reward consists of two things.
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  It consists of the block subsidy, which is 6.25 Bitcoin.
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  As I'm recording this, this block subsidy started at 50
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  Bitcoin and then whenever you have a halving, it was halved.
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  So the first halving it was halved to 25.
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  The next halving it was halved to 12 1/2 and now as we said,
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  it's at 6.25. So this is what's intended to be
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  a temporary subsidy. That's why Satoshi used the word
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  subsidy, even though the subsidy will of course last for over 100
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  years. 99% of all Bitcoin will be in circulation by 2032.
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  You know, between 2009 and, you know, and 2035, we will have
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  mined 99% of the Bitcoin. So the subsidy Cliff isn't a
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  2140 problem at all, it's actually in the next decade.
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  Yeah, the one you're in. Fingers crossed.
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  Block space is scarce, about 30,000 transactions per hour.
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  In April of 2024. Ordinals and rooms spanned the
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  memple, right? I mean, I don't know, I'm just
• 3:23
  reading off of a script, so maybe you can let me know in the
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  comments. Fees briefly outran the
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  subsidies. 12 to 1. Proof that the auction works and
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  stings. How high can fees climb?
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  Sailor builds the staircase in this clip, so.
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  They'll be commissions and fees to trade.
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  There's a very limited amount of transaction space.
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  The the fee will go from a few dollars a transaction to $30 a
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  transaction to $300 a transaction to 3000 to 30,000 to
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  300,000. Security budget migrates from
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  block reward to fees if enough people keep bidding.
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  What if they don't? When the price of Bitcoin
• 4:00
  sometimes falls, they will they will turn off their machines.
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  This causes the Bitcoin network hash rate to fall because you
• 4:07
  have fewer computers on the network.
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  As a result, blocks get produced more slowly.
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  Maybe you'll get a a new Bitcoin block every 11 minutes instead
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  of every 10 minutes. And so you might have to wait 11
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  minutes to get that 6.26.25 new Bitcoin put into the system.
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  But what happens is there's this difficulty adjustment that we've
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  spoken about or alluded to a few times after about two weeks.
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  In other words, 2016 blocks, the difficulty required, the
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  processing difficulty or the calculation difficulty or the
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  hash difficulty required to mine a new block will fall and and
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  make it easier to mine a new block.
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  So that way, even though there are fewer computers, the
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  difficulty will fall and so blocks will will continue to be
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  produced every 10 minutes on average.
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  The difficulty dial turns down, costs fall, yet the hardware
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  keeps hashing because it has nowhere else to earn.
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  Everybody that gets into Bitcoin mining does a one way trade.
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  You take a billion dollars you invested in Bitcoin mining, you
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  can't get your money out, you can go bankrupt.
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  The equity holder can go bankrupt.
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  Then the creditor gets the Bitcoin mining the credit.
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  The debt holder can go bankrupt. Then the electricity company,
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  the power company gets the mind, the power company can go
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  bankrupt. The nation state, the sovereign
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  that owns the power company will own it.
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  If you notice, electricity companies never go bankrupt.
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  Maybe they're owned by the state or they're owned by the country,
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  but people decide they want electricity and they'll keep
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  running them. There's no way to turn them off.
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  And that's why even in a crypto winner or bear market, the hash
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  rate just keeps going up. It's a it's a one way silicon
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  ratchet. Bottom line, state actors can
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  and will subsidized security if it keeps their reserves
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  spendable. This is Sailor again.
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  In a world right now, I guess you have a trillion dollar asset
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  class and the Bitcoin miners get paid 10 billion a year.
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  So the cost for the security right, Ten billion a year is is
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  like 1%, right. The fees will trend to be less
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  than that, and so that that 1% security cost will probably
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  become half a percent, 1/3 of a percent, 1/4 of a percent, 1/10
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  of a percent. But there's no reason why the
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  revenues can't go up while the value that's that's protected
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  goes up. And the incentive is always
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  going to be to run the equipment, even if the
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  transaction fees aren't high. Once you've invested $100
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  million in Bitcoin mining equipment, it's a sunk cost.
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  You can't repurpose it to anything else.
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  If your electricity is free and if you have $100 million of
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  equipment, then it doesn't matter whether you make a
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  million a year, 10 million a year, or 100 million a year.
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  You would run it for a million a year.
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  You would run it in 99% lower price because a million a year
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  is still better than nothing a year.
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  The electricity is worth nothing to you.
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  A third of all the electricity in the world is valueless.
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  It's it's wasted stranded. We got too much.
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  In the best case global adoption, the fees stay small
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  relative to trillion dollar transfers.
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  In the worst case, adoption stalls and energy spikes and on
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  chain transactions become a kind of luxury railcar.
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  The script tells me that three forces stopped the hash rate
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  from hitting zero. But before we go to that, do you
• 7:30
  want a mining partner that's aligned with you?
• 7:32
  I know I do SAS mining only earns when you do as in mining
• 7:37
  as much Bitcoin as possible. SAS Mining handles the hosting
• 7:41
  hardware and power so you can mine Bitcoin straight to your
• 7:45
  own wallet with 0 maintenance. Start stacking sats quietly and
• 7:48
  live your life. It's non custodial, easy to set
• 7:51
  up, and honestly, there's nothing more satisfying than
• 7:54
  stacking sats straight from the source.
• 7:56
  Book a call with one of their expert team members and start
• 7:59
  mining today at says mining.com. All right, so those three
• 8:02
  forces, one layer 2 siphon lightning moves the coffee money
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  off chain to free power Miners flare gas, stranded hydro
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  negative cost wind #3 hardware life cycle obsolete rigs migrate
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  until electricity is free enough.
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  Mining on expensive electricity goes out of business.
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  So when they go out of business, where does their equipment go?
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  It migrates to the next buyer. Who's the buyer of last resort?
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  Someone that has free power, there are actually places where
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  there's negative, where the power is negative cost, where
• 8:40
  people will pay you to take the electricity.
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  You know that that happens on solar and wind grids where the
• 8:49
  sun is shining, the wind is blowing, and we're going to burn
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  out the grid unless you take the power.
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  Unfortunately or fortunately, fees are the price of honesty
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  Seems pretty obvious, but the bigger the value secured, the
• 9:01
  more we will pay to keep thieves out.
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  So here's a question for future you will you shell out a fat fee
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  for an immutable transfer or will you ride lightning and
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  leave the base layer to the whales and the nation states?
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  Let me know in the comments below what fee tier you'd
• 9:17
  stomach. Don't forget to smash that like
• 9:18
  button. Use a hammer if you'd like and
• 9:20
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• 9:23
  this. We're coming out with it every
• 9:24
  single day and hit that little notification bell because it'll
• 9:28
  tell you when new videos come out just like this one later,
• 9:31
  everybody.