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NCAAF + WNBA FInals Best Bets Friday 10/3/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
0:08
Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
0:11
Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
0:14
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that I just
0:17
Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
0:20
Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
0:25
Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
0:29
Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wickends the slump
0:34
Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached into pink. Actually,
0:40
Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my Broins hat. Man, I don't
0:42
Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. Arch hate?
0:45
Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
0:47
Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
0:51
Speaker 1: don't know what data is anymore. But I don't even
0:53
Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
0:57
Speaker 1: the worst day that I can possibly have, Back with
0:59
Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die at least
1:03
Speaker 1: oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go well
1:07
Speaker 1: for me. Own five the worst month that I've ever
1:11
Speaker 1: had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't know
1:13
Speaker 1: what to even tell you about this anymore. To the
1:15
Speaker 1: Slump series, the slump discontinuous, The slump continues. Somebody fucking
1:21
Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
1:24
Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all. Yeah,
1:32
Speaker 1: that's how I feel right now. Obviously, I don't even
1:34
Speaker 1: want to talk about any of this fucking shit. Fuck
1:38
Speaker 1: all of this Red Sox. You know, they have to
1:40
Speaker 1: get your fucking hopesop even though they just lost the
1:43
Speaker 1: first game. No, we wouldn't get our hopes up. Be like, yeah,
1:46
Speaker 1: we knew they were gonna lose this series. Whatever, fuck
1:49
Speaker 1: at all. The Trader cam cam shittler uh destroyed the
1:55
Speaker 1: Red Sox yesterday. The Red Sox can do anything offensively.
1:59
Speaker 1: My play that I gave out push so we had
2:01
Speaker 1: an O O one day. It was looking good. It
2:04
Speaker 1: was zero to zero into the bottom of the fourth inning,
2:06
Speaker 1: and then it unraveled as Early just lost his way
2:10
Speaker 1: and there was a bad fielding mistake by the Red
2:13
Speaker 1: Sox as well an unearned run, and it just totally unraveled.
2:17
Speaker 1: Every single run in the game was scored to the
2:18
Speaker 1: bottom of the fourth No other runs were scored. If
2:21
Speaker 1: you had gone into that game telling me the Yankees
2:22
Speaker 1: were only gonna score in one inning in the entire game,
2:25
Speaker 1: I would have said, Hey, that means the Red Sox
2:27
Speaker 1: are probably gonna win this game, and it means that
2:30
Speaker 1: we're probably gonna get both the first five inning under
2:32
Speaker 1: and the full game under. But no, the first five
2:35
Speaker 1: inning under push the full game under would have been
2:37
Speaker 1: a winner if you took it. This is fucking bullshit.
2:40
Speaker 1: Fuck the Yankees. They better fucking lose, man. That's all
2:44
Speaker 1: I gotta say about that. And then to compile everything,
2:49
Speaker 1: my affiliate on Twitter, uh, basically got nuked by the
2:53
Speaker 1: new censorship regime, and I lost by Blue check as well,
2:57
Speaker 1: even though I'm still paying for my own blue check
2:59
Speaker 1: as well until into January. So whatever Twitter is doing,
3:04
Speaker 1: it's fucking illegal, dude. It's such fucking bullshit just because
3:08
Speaker 1: you can't I mean, you know exactly what it is
3:10
Speaker 1: that you can't say on Twitter. You cannot question certain things.
3:16
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna get this channel nuke for saying it.
3:18
Speaker 1: Let's talk about today. I'm not gonna have any plays today.
3:22
Speaker 1: It is almost all college football today. WNBA finals are
3:27
Speaker 1: starting as well. Game one Phoenix at Vegas here. Vegas
3:31
Speaker 1: is a bit public and they're down from three and
3:33
Speaker 1: a half to three here, which kind of surprises me.
3:35
Speaker 1: I thought Vegas would be somewhere more on the ballpark
3:38
Speaker 1: of like a four and a half point favorite here
3:39
Speaker 1: because they are they're the better team. I don't know
3:42
Speaker 1: how much you really get for home court in WNBA
3:45
Speaker 1: in the finals. It's probably still not a lot. It's
3:47
Speaker 1: probably like maybe two points at most. So the osmangers
3:50
Speaker 1: still saying Vegas is the better team. I agree, They're
3:54
Speaker 1: my pick to win the championship. If you saw my
3:57
Speaker 1: bracket special, sixty two percent take it's and cash on
4:01
Speaker 1: Vegas here, money also potentially coming in on the under
4:06
Speaker 1: a little bit for what it's worth, seventy three percent
4:08
Speaker 1: of tickets on the over and only fifty nine percent
4:11
Speaker 1: of cash on the over. In a finals game one
4:13
Speaker 1: like this, where the teams are a little bit rested,
4:15
Speaker 1: I think you do kind of expect a bit of
4:17
Speaker 1: a feeling out process. I think you kind of expect
4:21
Speaker 1: some low scoring at least maybe early in the game, uh,
4:24
Speaker 1: and more intense defense, and maybe the offense, you know,
4:28
Speaker 1: kind of a little bit shaky, not shaky, but the
4:31
Speaker 1: offense has to like get going again after like some
4:34
Speaker 1: days off and whatever. So I would not really disagree
4:38
Speaker 1: with an under in the game, either first five inning
4:40
Speaker 1: or full game. And I somewhat lead to the Vegas
4:43
Speaker 1: side in this game as well, because I think that
4:46
Speaker 1: the even though it looks like the public is on Vegas,
4:49
Speaker 1: I would think that the public would kind of be
4:51
Speaker 1: giving Phoenix more credit because they just beat Minnesota. Man,
4:55
Speaker 1: so they beat the best team in the league. They
4:58
Speaker 1: knock them out. But if you remember what happened, Minnesota
5:01
Speaker 1: was up twenty at home in Game two and about
5:04
Speaker 1: to go up two to oh in that series, which
5:06
Speaker 1: pretty much would have been the end of that series.
5:08
Speaker 1: Minnesota would have won most likely if they're up two
5:11
Speaker 1: to oh, but instead Phoenix had a historic comeback won
5:15
Speaker 1: that game in overtime. I thought Minnesota would bounce back
5:18
Speaker 1: in the next game, but it was on the road.
5:20
Speaker 1: They didn't, and then Minnesota lost their best player, Collier
5:26
Speaker 1: or not MVP because Wilson was MVP on Vegas. Hey,
5:28
Speaker 1: there you go, they have the MVP here. But Collier
5:31
Speaker 1: was the favorite to win the MVP for quite a while.
5:35
Speaker 1: She got hurt, so Minnesota had to finish the series
5:39
Speaker 1: without her, so some things happened to make that series
5:43
Speaker 1: win for Phoenix look a little bit less credible. Even though, yes,
5:46
Speaker 1: Phoenix is good, I still think Vegas is the better team.
5:49
Speaker 1: People will give Vegas less credit for having to go
5:52
Speaker 1: five games against the Indiana Fever, who are without Caitlin
5:57
Speaker 1: Clark and Sophie Conningham, and they were the sixth seed
5:59
Speaker 1: in the play Phoenix is the four, Vegas is the two,
6:03
Speaker 1: so I think people will give Phoenix more credit. I
6:05
Speaker 1: would imagine from beating the one seed, Vegas uh struggling
6:10
Speaker 1: against the sixth seed with like a really thin roster.
6:14
Speaker 1: So Vegas is the team that looked worse in the
6:17
Speaker 1: series coming into this. So that kind of makes me
6:19
Speaker 1: think that Vegas is going to come in with some
6:21
Speaker 1: focus and stepping up. Vegas is also more used to
6:24
Speaker 1: being here. They've been They've made some deep runs in
6:27
Speaker 1: the playoffs. I think they've won the championship a couple
6:29
Speaker 1: of years ago too, so they're used to it. So
6:31
Speaker 1: I would lean to Vegas in that game. College football,
6:35
Speaker 1: we actually have five FBS games tonight, so we're getting
6:38
Speaker 1: more of the non Saturday college football going on next week.
6:43
Speaker 1: I believe we're gonna have Wednesday college football starting, and
6:46
Speaker 1: then the following week I think we start getting the
6:48
Speaker 1: Tuesday maction, so things are gonna get a little bit crazy.
6:52
Speaker 1: And then we're gonna get NBA and NHL into the mix.
6:55
Speaker 1: So that is one of the crazier times of the year.
6:59
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to not talk about like every game
7:01
Speaker 1: on the slate anymore. I got too autistic about baseball,
7:04
Speaker 1: so in baseball playoffs are still happening too. I was
7:08
Speaker 1: wrong about Sam Houston State last night. I haven't dug
7:11
Speaker 1: into the box square yet on that one, but yeah,
7:14
Speaker 1: I mean whatever, I didn't give it out as a
7:17
Speaker 1: play at least all right tonight seven pm, we have
7:19
Speaker 1: two games at seven pm, and then we have three
7:21
Speaker 1: games at ten and ten thirty pm Eastern, so we
7:24
Speaker 1: get the early slate on the East Coast, and then
7:26
Speaker 1: we get the late night degenerate hours with three more games.
7:32
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky at Delaware in this Conference USA matchup. As
7:36
Speaker 1: Delawarre has moved up to FBS this year and there
7:38
Speaker 1: now in Conference USA. This is on CBS Sports. It
7:44
Speaker 1: may be a weird spot for Western Kentucky just because
7:46
Speaker 1: they usually don't play in Delaware, like this is probably
7:50
Speaker 1: gonna be the first time maybe they've ever had to
7:52
Speaker 1: play there. I mean, I don't know, because Delaware has
7:54
Speaker 1: been in the FCS up until this year, so it's
7:57
Speaker 1: not a familiar venue for Western Kentuckucky to have to
8:01
Speaker 1: go to. Looking at the records here, I mean Western
8:04
Speaker 1: Kentucky's form one Delaware is three and one, so both
8:06
Speaker 1: teams have played pretty well so far. Western Kentucky is
8:10
Speaker 1: still the better team, but the Osbakers are telling you
8:13
Speaker 1: not by much. And I think Western Kentucky is gonna
8:16
Speaker 1: get some of the public play in this game because
8:19
Speaker 1: it's a you know, it's a Friday. There's not a
8:21
Speaker 1: whole lot going on, so you know, the public is
8:23
Speaker 1: gonna want to bet something on a Friday night, So
8:26
Speaker 1: they're gonna bet some of these college football games. And
8:29
Speaker 1: none of them really have like huge name teams in them.
8:33
Speaker 1: But the public they know Western Kentucky. They see Western
8:35
Speaker 1: Kentucky with high flying, you know, passing attacks for the
8:40
Speaker 1: most part over the recent years. They see them getting
8:42
Speaker 1: into bowls, like every year they're gonna want to play
8:45
Speaker 1: the Western Kentucky side here, especially getting them as an underdog.
8:48
Speaker 1: Sixty three percent of tickets are on them, but sixty
8:50
Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on Delaware, and Delaware has
8:53
Speaker 1: moved up from one to two and a half headed
8:55
Speaker 1: towards the three. So if you do like Delaware, I
8:57
Speaker 1: think you got to get it at two and a half.
8:59
Speaker 1: Don't live the full three of you if you can
9:01
Speaker 1: help it, because three is a key number in football.
9:03
Speaker 1: Obviously it is the exact field goal. Or you could
9:08
Speaker 1: start looking maybe to Delaware money line. I wouldn't disagree
9:11
Speaker 1: with the Delaware side. Delaware is coming out of a buy,
9:16
Speaker 1: so they did have a buy, so they have extra
9:18
Speaker 1: rest for this, and because this is an isolated CBS
9:22
Speaker 1: Sports game, I think they will show up for it,
9:24
Speaker 1: whereas normally when a team goes into a buy like
9:26
Speaker 1: Delaware did, and they had that big overtime upset win
9:29
Speaker 1: over Yukon and then they followed it up with a
9:31
Speaker 1: road I believe upset win at Florida International. Yeah, five
9:35
Speaker 1: and a half point upset there, so they pulled off
9:37
Speaker 1: two straight upsets going into the buy. Normally I would
9:40
Speaker 1: say that buy tends to be a little bit of
9:42
Speaker 1: a disrupt or. You don't want to go into the
9:44
Speaker 1: buy on a good note like that usually because what
9:47
Speaker 1: do you have to fix? You don't have anything to fix,
9:50
Speaker 1: So I don't think the buy isn't necessarily as helpful
9:53
Speaker 1: as it could be for Delaware here, although they do
9:55
Speaker 1: have extra time to prepare for this. But I do
9:57
Speaker 1: think they will show up again because this is gonna
9:59
Speaker 1: be their first game like this man since they move
10:01
Speaker 1: up to FBS. They get this isolated basically like Friday
10:05
Speaker 1: night game that's nationally televised. It's a huge deal for Delaware,
10:09
Speaker 1: so I think they will show up for it for
10:11
Speaker 1: that reason. Western Kentucky did play last week I think
10:14
Speaker 1: played a very lackluster game I would say against Missouri State,
10:19
Speaker 1: so Western Kentucky may actually have more reason to show
10:24
Speaker 1: up here as well. But they are playing a third
10:26
Speaker 1: road game in four weeks, I believe, which is pretty
10:28
Speaker 1: difficult as well. Actually in five weeks, excuse me. They
10:31
Speaker 1: did have a bye after the Toledo game. Other one
10:35
Speaker 1: loss did come on the road though, against Toledo in
10:37
Speaker 1: that one, and their only other road game was the
10:39
Speaker 1: one last week, so they have back to back road games.
10:42
Speaker 1: That was at Missouri State and Missouri State also an
10:44
Speaker 1: unfamiliar venue to go to because they actually moved up
10:47
Speaker 1: to FBS this year too, So very strange. Western Kentucky
10:50
Speaker 1: is actually playing both FBS newcomers here. I think it's
10:54
Speaker 1: only these two. They're playing them both on the road
10:56
Speaker 1: and back to back weeks. Pretty strange, man a Kentucky.
11:00
Speaker 1: You know, because it's a Friday, so it's a little
11:02
Speaker 1: bit of a shorter week. So I think that makes
11:03
Speaker 1: the weird travel spot a little bit worse for the
11:06
Speaker 1: road team actually, because they're not used to having to
11:09
Speaker 1: go to that venue. So I do think there are
11:10
Speaker 1: more advantages for Delaware here than for Western Kentucky. We
11:14
Speaker 1: will see what happens. Western Kentucky does still have a
11:16
Speaker 1: prolific passing attack, of course, with Maverick mcguy for one
11:22
Speaker 1: of the better names out there, man is their quarterback.
11:25
Speaker 1: I don't know much about Delaware's offense, to be honest.
11:29
Speaker 1: Delaware looks like they have minnicouci Oh my god, these
11:35
Speaker 1: names are certain. Nick Minicucci, man, the Minicoucie. That's a
11:40
Speaker 1: that's a type pussy. Oh man. It looks like they
11:45
Speaker 1: have a decent passing attack as well, led by Minicucci there,
11:49
Speaker 1: So this might be if you like passing, that's probably
11:52
Speaker 1: what you're gonna get in this game. The teams throw
11:55
Speaker 1: the ball quite a bit, it looks like so, but
11:58
Speaker 1: I would lean to Delaware just I think the buyer
12:01
Speaker 1: might not be totally unhelpful to them, and the money's
12:03
Speaker 1: coming in on them for a reason, and it's a
12:06
Speaker 1: weird spot for western Kentucky. So those are my thoughts
12:09
Speaker 1: on that game. The other seven pm game is Charlotte
12:13
Speaker 1: at South Florida on ESPN two. A lot less interesting
12:17
Speaker 1: of a game here. Charlotte seemed like they were getting
12:20
Speaker 1: a lot of the public a lot of the excuse me,
12:22
Speaker 1: professional money the first few weeks, but it doesn't look
12:25
Speaker 1: like the case here. South Florida is up from twenty
12:27
Speaker 1: seven to twenty eight here, and of course my ad
12:30
Speaker 1: block has to freak me out. I'm like, what the
12:33
Speaker 1: fuck is this tab coming up? Ad block? When it updates,
12:37
Speaker 1: it brings up a new tab. I got to see
12:39
Speaker 1: if the settings can be changed for that, because it
12:41
Speaker 1: fucking startles me every time it startles me. But yeah,
12:45
Speaker 1: in this game, South Florida is up to a twenty
12:48
Speaker 1: eight point favorite fifty eight percent of tickets, eighty five
12:50
Speaker 1: percent of the cash. Almost the money looks like it
12:53
Speaker 1: is actually laying the huge price with South Florida here, Charlotte,
12:58
Speaker 1: I mean, they really have not done anything. So they
13:00
Speaker 1: have not been impressive at all. Their only win is
13:03
Speaker 1: against FCS Mod Myth, and I know Mond Myth has
13:05
Speaker 1: been somewhat competitive recently in some of these games against
13:08
Speaker 1: FBS teams. I think they're not a terrible FCS team.
13:12
Speaker 1: But Charlotte, I mean their FBS games are all losses
13:15
Speaker 1: and they're to app State, North Carolina and Rice. So
13:19
Speaker 1: the best team they've played is North Carolina. That's not impressive, man.
13:23
Speaker 1: And they did already play this game against Rice at
13:26
Speaker 1: home on one of those isolated games on a Thursday,
13:29
Speaker 1: and that still didn't even help them. But they are
13:31
Speaker 1: coming out of a bye, so the fact they went
13:33
Speaker 1: into a buy and a bad note, maybe that'll help
13:36
Speaker 1: them fix some things. They've had a lot of time
13:37
Speaker 1: off to prepare for this, and they're probably gonna try
13:40
Speaker 1: to show wop at least, because you know, South Florida
13:43
Speaker 1: has made a name for themselves this year with a
13:45
Speaker 1: couple of big wins. They beat Boise State in the
13:48
Speaker 1: opening game. Then they beat Florida, pulled off a huge
13:52
Speaker 1: opset there, lost to Miami, no shame in that. And
13:55
Speaker 1: then they beat South Carolina State but absolutely destroyed them
14:00
Speaker 1: team and at South Carolina State. South Carolina State, by
14:02
Speaker 1: the way, the same team that outgained South Carolina in
14:06
Speaker 1: a game this year at South Florida actually completely destroyed them.
14:10
Speaker 1: So very interesting that South Florida might actually be better
14:14
Speaker 1: than South Carolina. Although you don't want to do that
14:16
Speaker 1: transitive thing, but it's still fairly ridiculous that the disparity
14:22
Speaker 1: between those two games. South Florida did outgain them by
14:25
Speaker 1: two hundred yards. South Florida also went into a buye
14:28
Speaker 1: after that, but they went into a buy and a
14:30
Speaker 1: positive note, So I talk about that going into a
14:33
Speaker 1: buy and a positive note tends to be worse because
14:37
Speaker 1: you don't really have anything to fix you've been playing well.
14:40
Speaker 1: South Florida has already played some of these isolated games
14:43
Speaker 1: as well, like they had that huge game to open
14:44
Speaker 1: the season on a Thursday night against Boise, So they're
14:48
Speaker 1: the team that's they're kind of more used to this,
14:50
Speaker 1: so I think that also means it matters less to
14:52
Speaker 1: them and They do have North Texas up next, which
14:54
Speaker 1: is a pretty big game because North Texas is a
14:59
Speaker 1: better team in this I think these are all conference
15:01
Speaker 1: matchups here, but North Texas has been playing really well,
15:04
Speaker 1: so that is a big matchup for South Florida coming
15:07
Speaker 1: up next. So if I was gonna play this game,
15:10
Speaker 1: I would actually probably lean to taking the points, with
15:13
Speaker 1: Charlotte getting the four touchdowns in this game the twenty
15:16
Speaker 1: eight points. I think the buye came in a better
15:18
Speaker 1: time for them than it came to South Florida. They
15:21
Speaker 1: have two additional days off from what South Florida has,
15:23
Speaker 1: not that that really matters when it's on top of
15:26
Speaker 1: a bye, but it is still something. At least South
15:28
Speaker 1: Florida has played the way more difficult schedule though obviously
15:31
Speaker 1: they played Boise, Florida, and Miami, so all three of
15:34
Speaker 1: those teams are better than any team Charlotte has played
15:37
Speaker 1: so far. So Charlotte looking very bad against weak competition,
15:41
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't want to do it. But those are
15:44
Speaker 1: my thoughts on that game. New Mexico at San Jose State.
15:47
Speaker 1: We started getting into some interesting handicapping situations here with
15:51
Speaker 1: this game. This is actually probably the most interesting game
15:54
Speaker 1: on the board. Fox Sports won at ten pm. Here.
15:58
Speaker 1: This is a both these teams even in the same conference,
16:01
Speaker 1: and no because New Mexico. Oh yeah, they are the
16:03
Speaker 1: Mountain West. What am I saying? For some reason, I
16:05
Speaker 1: was thinking San Jose State wasn't in the Mountain West,
16:07
Speaker 1: but they are San Jose State. They're coming off a
16:10
Speaker 1: pretty big game last week against Stanford. That was one
16:13
Speaker 1: that I talked about on the show. I said, I
16:15
Speaker 1: leaned it to San Jose State plus the points in
16:18
Speaker 1: that game. They put up a decent game, but they
16:20
Speaker 1: wound up losing the game by one. Could be a
16:22
Speaker 1: little bit tough for San Jose State to bounce back
16:25
Speaker 1: from that, man, because that's a big in state, big
16:27
Speaker 1: Brothers situation. You know, they step up their game to
16:30
Speaker 1: play a big name team like Stanford. Even if Stanford
16:33
Speaker 1: is down this year, Stanford's still an acc team. They're
16:39
Speaker 1: still like the big name in the kind of the
16:42
Speaker 1: Bay area up there. So it's a big game for
16:44
Speaker 1: San Jose State because they're in that same part of
16:47
Speaker 1: California and they almost got the win man, and now
16:50
Speaker 1: they're having to come off of that. They are hosting
16:52
Speaker 1: this game on Friday, night though, so that is still
16:54
Speaker 1: somewhat of a big deal. And they already did that
16:57
Speaker 1: once this year though, and they lost outright to Central Michigan,
17:00
Speaker 1: and so in a way, that might mean they want
17:02
Speaker 1: to redeem themselves from that, because that was a really
17:04
Speaker 1: embarrassing performance as a double digit favorite, losing a Central
17:08
Speaker 1: Michigan in that game. I think San Jose stayed had
17:10
Speaker 1: a bunch of turnovers in that game, So they may
17:12
Speaker 1: want to try to clean things up and redeem themselves,
17:16
Speaker 1: but it's gonna be tough to bounce back from the
17:18
Speaker 1: Stanford loss. One good thing you'd say about that game
17:21
Speaker 1: is even though that was one of the tougher opponents
17:23
Speaker 1: they faced so far, because I mean, Central Michigan and
17:27
Speaker 1: Idaho are not tough, and Idaho is the only game
17:29
Speaker 1: that San Jose State won so far. They barely won
17:33
Speaker 1: that game at home. But San Jose State at least
17:36
Speaker 1: you could say that against Stanford they actually put up
17:39
Speaker 1: a huge amount of passing. Egot had four hundred and
17:41
Speaker 1: seventy three passing yards for San Jose State in that one,
17:44
Speaker 1: so that was pretty good as far as their passing attack.
17:48
Speaker 1: They're definitely a pass heavy offensive attack. Here, so something
17:52
Speaker 1: to keep in mind there, but it looks like they
17:53
Speaker 1: are at least improving on that front. But I don't
17:57
Speaker 1: think I really want to do anything with New Mexico
17:59
Speaker 1: here either, because I think New Mexico's in a bad
18:01
Speaker 1: spot too. And we'll talk about the line versus what
18:05
Speaker 1: these records are in a second as well, But New
18:07
Speaker 1: Mexico they're coming off a couple of pretty big games
18:10
Speaker 1: in Roman and they both teams played last week as well,
18:15
Speaker 1: so there's no buy coming into play here a New Mexico.
18:19
Speaker 1: They beat UCLA on the road as a big underdog,
18:22
Speaker 1: like sixteen seventeen point underdogs, which is still a big deal.
18:25
Speaker 1: And the UCLA has been so bad that they fired
18:28
Speaker 1: their coach after that, but that was a big win
18:30
Speaker 1: for this New Mexico program. Man. That's kind of rebuilding
18:33
Speaker 1: right now. I think they lost Bronco Mendenhall, their coach,
18:36
Speaker 1: over to Utah State going into this season, so they
18:39
Speaker 1: did that and then they had a bye and they
18:41
Speaker 1: went into the buy in a good note, so that
18:43
Speaker 1: you would think that they would come out of that
18:45
Speaker 1: by kind of having their momentum disrupted, but instead they
18:49
Speaker 1: took it to New Mexico State or they're in state
18:52
Speaker 1: rival that's a rivalry game there. And they're able to
18:54
Speaker 1: beat New Mexico State too, and that's what they did
18:56
Speaker 1: last week. Now they have to go on the road
18:58
Speaker 1: to San Jose stayed and up next. They got Boise
19:00
Speaker 1: State next week. Man, So Boise, I mean they're the
19:04
Speaker 1: king of the conference. They're still the team in the
19:06
Speaker 1: Mountain West. That's a big game too. So this is
19:09
Speaker 1: actually kind of a sandwich spot for New Mexico here, man,
19:12
Speaker 1: So I would not want out my money on New
19:13
Speaker 1: Mexico either. San Jose State's coming off the big in state,
19:17
Speaker 1: big brother game against big brother, little brother against Stanford.
19:21
Speaker 1: But New Mexico's in a sandwich, man, after beating UCLA
19:25
Speaker 1: in New Mexico State and with Boise up next. So
19:28
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a particularly good spot for either team.
19:30
Speaker 1: I think it's probably actually worse for New Mexico. And
19:33
Speaker 1: then looking at the records here versus what the line is,
19:37
Speaker 1: this is what kind of tells me what you want
19:40
Speaker 1: to think in this game. And New Mexico's three and
19:42
Speaker 1: one to start the season, San Jose State's one and three,
19:46
Speaker 1: But that's not really telling you the whole story. If
19:49
Speaker 1: you look at the odds here, San Jose State's the favorite,
19:52
Speaker 1: although they're down from minus three to minus two here.
19:55
Speaker 1: So some initial money looks like maybe it came in
19:57
Speaker 1: on New Mexico, but it could have been a false
19:59
Speaker 1: move to try to just get the number to below three,
20:02
Speaker 1: just to actually come back with a real move on
20:05
Speaker 1: San Jose State at a better price. Because we see
20:08
Speaker 1: New Mexico's public because they have the better record, So
20:11
Speaker 1: that's what the public really is gonna see. They're not
20:13
Speaker 1: gonna be impressed by what San Jose State has done
20:15
Speaker 1: so far. Their only win is a win where they
20:18
Speaker 1: barely scrape by against Idaho UH seventy per tickets only
20:22
Speaker 1: fifty five percent in the cash on New Mexico. So
20:24
Speaker 1: New Mexico they have the better looking record, but they're
20:28
Speaker 1: an underdog. It almost looks too easy to take New
20:30
Speaker 1: Mexico right, the team with a significantly better record as
20:33
Speaker 1: an underdog. UH, San Jose State. I think they're still
20:37
Speaker 1: the better team then. I mean, they're definitely power rated
20:40
Speaker 1: as the better team coming into this season, and just
20:42
Speaker 1: based on how these teams have played so far, I
20:45
Speaker 1: think you're actually getting a little bit of value on
20:47
Speaker 1: San Jose State here, and I do think the spot
20:49
Speaker 1: is still worse for New Mexico, so I would lean
20:52
Speaker 1: to San Jose State slightly in this game. But yeah,
20:55
Speaker 1: seventy seven percent tickets only fifty six percent of the
20:57
Speaker 1: cash on New Mexico. So you have one of those
21:00
Speaker 1: dreaded public road underdog situations there in New Mexico looks
21:04
Speaker 1: like so I think San Jose State would be the
21:06
Speaker 1: way to look in that game. Both teams as far
21:10
Speaker 1: as like their schedules, I mean, San Jose State did
21:13
Speaker 1: play Texas. They covered in that game, I'm pretty sure,
21:16
Speaker 1: but Texas probably just didn't really give a shit. And
21:19
Speaker 1: arch Manning is not looking very good for Texas. So
21:22
Speaker 1: Texas offense has had their struggles New Mexico. As far
21:25
Speaker 1: as their schedule, I mean, they have not played a
21:28
Speaker 1: difficult schedule. They played Michigan that was their one big
21:31
Speaker 1: game and it was against a new quarterback there from Michigan.
21:35
Speaker 1: Michigan didn't do particularly well in that game, so I
21:38
Speaker 1: don't think we could really be impressed by either of
21:40
Speaker 1: these teams. Man and then New Mexico barely beat FCS
21:44
Speaker 1: Idaho State in their other home game there against an
21:47
Speaker 1: FCS team, so neither team has an impressive resume so far.
21:50
Speaker 1: I think San Jose State has played the more difficult
21:53
Speaker 1: schedule because they did face Stanford and Texas in there,
21:57
Speaker 1: so I think that's actually probably a little bit more difficult.
22:00
Speaker 1: Those two teams I think are better than the combination
22:02
Speaker 1: of Michigan and UCLA. So interesting interesting matchup there, for sure.
22:09
Speaker 1: Man a lot going on in that game. You got to,
22:11
Speaker 1: you know, kind of read into the situation there too.
22:13
Speaker 1: Both teams kind of in a bad situation. I would
22:16
Speaker 1: not disagree with an over in this game, but the
22:19
Speaker 1: total has gone up through what I think is a
22:21
Speaker 1: semi key number of like fifty seven there, so it's
22:24
Speaker 1: all all the way from fifty four to fifty eight.
22:26
Speaker 1: So I think if you do like the over, I
22:28
Speaker 1: think you've kind of lost the value on that now.
22:30
Speaker 1: Eighty percent of tickets, only seventy five percent of the
22:32
Speaker 1: cash on the over, so the money's kind of coming
22:35
Speaker 1: in towards the under now. But I do think you
22:37
Speaker 1: could see a decent amount of scoring in that game.
22:39
Speaker 1: Both offenses are pretty capable and the defenses are not
22:43
Speaker 1: particularly good, so those are my thoughts there. West Virginia
22:48
Speaker 1: at number twenty three BYU, we have a big twelve matchup.
22:52
Speaker 1: This is the only big conference game tonight, so should
22:56
Speaker 1: be the more interesting game, but it isn't because it's
22:58
Speaker 1: West Virginia. This is the ESPN game at ten thirty
23:02
Speaker 1: pm Eastern. BYU is coming off of a game against Colorado.
23:06
Speaker 1: Or they were able to win in a game that
23:09
Speaker 1: should have been a big game for Colorado, and Colorado
23:11
Speaker 1: did step it up, although they lost the game. Colorado
23:14
Speaker 1: trying to get some of that Alamo Bowl revenge there
23:19
Speaker 1: coach prime there Dean Sanders to Colorado kind of pissed
23:23
Speaker 1: at some of his players. I think he actually, I
23:27
Speaker 1: think he actually benched his quarterback in the game before
23:30
Speaker 1: that one, just because he was just pissed at the quarterback.
23:34
Speaker 1: I think so he benched. I don't know, man, it's
23:37
Speaker 1: getting a little bit crazy. The quarterback situation in that
23:39
Speaker 1: game last week was actually kind of crazy because BYU
23:42
Speaker 1: the quarterback they had last year, Jake what the hell
23:45
Speaker 1: is his name? I can't remember his name, but he
23:48
Speaker 1: he got banned from BYU because he had sex with
23:53
Speaker 1: a girl, which is you can't do that. When you're
23:56
Speaker 1: in a Mormon school, man, no fucking no sex in
24:01
Speaker 1: the BYU room or whatever. So BYU actually kicked him
24:04
Speaker 1: out of the program because he fucked a chick. And
24:08
Speaker 1: now he's the quarterback with Tulane now, so that's where
24:12
Speaker 1: he went. BYU's quarterback from last year. This is a
24:14
Speaker 1: hilarious tidbit there, man. But BYU there four to zero
24:18
Speaker 1: coming into this game. This is gonna be their Big
24:22
Speaker 1: twelve home opener and it's on ESPN, so I think
24:24
Speaker 1: they will show up for it. They had kind of
24:26
Speaker 1: a lackluster game last week against Colorado. They've had to
24:29
Speaker 1: do some travel though. They had to go to the
24:31
Speaker 1: East coast to base East Carolina, a game that I
24:34
Speaker 1: thought East Carolina was gonna show a decent I thought
24:38
Speaker 1: they were gonna have a decent showing in that game,
24:40
Speaker 1: I should say, but it was not what happened. East Carolina.
24:44
Speaker 1: I think had a lot of turnovers in that game
24:46
Speaker 1: though too. Then by you had to go into Colorado
24:48
Speaker 1: hostile environment, high elevational The BYU is used to that
24:52
Speaker 1: because they play at high elevation too. But now they're
24:55
Speaker 1: coming out of that game coming back home. No, no,
24:58
Speaker 1: weeks off between any of the those three games, maybe
25:02
Speaker 1: a spot where BYU is not at their best potentially here,
25:06
Speaker 1: I'm BYU. They're definitely not as good as last year.
25:09
Speaker 1: I mean, their schedule has been really weak so far.
25:11
Speaker 1: Like the best opponent they've faced so far is actually Colorado,
25:15
Speaker 1: so BYU has not really been tested yet, although West
25:18
Speaker 1: Virginia is not exactly a test either. But BYU kicking
25:23
Speaker 1: that quarterback out of their program Man maybe not a
25:25
Speaker 1: good idea because Bachmeyer, their new quarterback, doesn't look that good.
25:28
Speaker 1: Although their rushing attack has been fairly good for BYUS.
25:32
Speaker 1: They've had a balanced offense, but haven't really faced anybody
25:35
Speaker 1: good yet. It's possible they're even looking ahead a little
25:37
Speaker 1: bit to Arizona because Arizona's been pretty good recently. They
25:41
Speaker 1: might not take this West Virginia team totally seriously. West
25:45
Speaker 1: Virginia has put up some really awful showings the last
25:48
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. They did get a huge win against
25:50
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl after losing at home to
25:54
Speaker 1: a MAC team in Ohio, although Ohio is one of
25:57
Speaker 1: the better MAC teams, but that was on the road
26:00
Speaker 1: me at Ohio. But that was still bad. But then
26:02
Speaker 1: they got that huge win in overtime in the backyard
26:04
Speaker 1: Brawl against Pittsburgh, big rivalry win there, and then after
26:08
Speaker 1: that they've been pitiful. They had basically let down. Having
26:11
Speaker 1: to go to Kansas, they got absolutely destroyed. Then they
26:14
Speaker 1: came home and they got absolutely wrecked by Utah, who
26:16
Speaker 1: I still think is really good. Utah. I think they're
26:19
Speaker 1: flying under the radar right now. Man, there's still a
26:21
Speaker 1: solid team, one of the top teams in the Big
26:23
Speaker 1: Twelve still, I would say, so. No real shame in
26:27
Speaker 1: losing to Utah, but losing forty eight to fourteen at
26:30
Speaker 1: home pretty bad. And something happened in West Virginia's quarterback
26:34
Speaker 1: to Marshy All because he didn't play in that game,
26:37
Speaker 1: I don't think, and they had basically no offense in
26:40
Speaker 1: that game without him. So this West Virginia team is
26:42
Speaker 1: definitely in disarray. They're having to go out to BYU,
26:46
Speaker 1: which is a bit of a weird travel spot, you know,
26:49
Speaker 1: since West Virginia joined the Big Twelve, I know they've
26:51
Speaker 1: been there for a while, so they've played him at
26:53
Speaker 1: BYU before, but they have to travel from the Appalachians.
26:57
Speaker 1: The Applachians all the way out into Rocky Mountain Territory.
27:01
Speaker 1: It's kind of crazy, man, that travel spot there, It's
27:04
Speaker 1: one of the worst travel spots in this conference. I think,
27:07
Speaker 1: having to go from West Virginia Morgantown all the way
27:10
Speaker 1: out to wherever BYU is. Provo. Maybe is that where
27:15
Speaker 1: they are? Whatever it is, I mean, it's kind of weird. Yeah, Provo,
27:19
Speaker 1: kind of a weird spot for the man. So I
27:20
Speaker 1: don't I don't really love how this sets up for
27:23
Speaker 1: either team. The money is coming in on BYU. They're
27:25
Speaker 1: up from eighteen and a half to nineteen. Very strong
27:29
Speaker 1: favorite here, fifty eight percent of tickets, sixty three percent
27:31
Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on them. I don't even
27:34
Speaker 1: know if I have much of an opinion on this game.
27:36
Speaker 1: The total is low down for forty seven after forty
27:39
Speaker 1: six and a half, So when you have a low total,
27:42
Speaker 1: that does mean it's difficult to cover a number like that.
27:44
Speaker 1: But you could see from what I just showed you
27:46
Speaker 1: both offenses have struggled this year, and you could maybe
27:50
Speaker 1: see West Virginia's offense really struggle in this game. Oddsmakers
27:53
Speaker 1: are kind of telling you what you need to know.
27:55
Speaker 1: There they think West Virginia is not going to score
27:57
Speaker 1: a lot in this game. Fifty nine percent of tickets
27:59
Speaker 1: on the over, fifty nine percent of the cash. However,
28:01
Speaker 1: on the under, if you do like the under, I
28:04
Speaker 1: think you got to at least try to get the
28:05
Speaker 1: under forty seven because forty seven is a key number
28:08
Speaker 1: in football. So I mean that that may be the
28:11
Speaker 1: way to even look in this game, actually, because it
28:14
Speaker 1: seems just like it's kind of a spot that might
28:16
Speaker 1: throw off both offenses, which aren't really that good anyway.
28:19
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that either defense is necessarily that good either,
28:22
Speaker 1: but these teams, I mean, they really haven't impressed this year.
28:26
Speaker 1: I think BYU is overrated though, so if you're looking
28:29
Speaker 1: at the side, I mean the fact that BYU is
28:31
Speaker 1: up there in the rankings, I don't think they're really
28:33
Speaker 1: as good as last year. I mean, they haven't really
28:34
Speaker 1: done anything to really prove that they're worthy of that
28:37
Speaker 1: ranking yet. They've played a really light schedule so far,
28:40
Speaker 1: so I don't think I would lay the points with BYU,
28:44
Speaker 1: especially not with a low total like that. You know,
28:46
Speaker 1: I preach against that for the most part. When you
28:48
Speaker 1: have a really low total like that. My default is
28:51
Speaker 1: kind of to just look towards the underdog if it's
28:53
Speaker 1: a huge spread. Curtis, what's up, man, Thanks for hanging out.
28:58
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, forty nine. They had the big lead yesterday,
29:02
Speaker 1: blew the lead and still wound up winning an overtime
29:05
Speaker 1: mac Jones not playing too poorly, man. I told you
29:10
Speaker 1: guys that the line was just way too high on
29:12
Speaker 1: the Rams. I pointed that out on the show yesterday.
29:14
Speaker 1: I'm kind of pissed. I didn't give it out as
29:16
Speaker 1: a play on the forty nine ers plus the nine
29:18
Speaker 1: points or whatever. I think it was down to eight
29:21
Speaker 1: when the game kicked off, but anything over a touchdown
29:23
Speaker 1: was just that was just way too big of a number.
29:26
Speaker 1: I did not take the Rams and survivor, by the way,
29:29
Speaker 1: so I'm still alive. I was considering doing it, but
29:32
Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, these Thursday night games are weird.
29:34
Speaker 1: It's a divisional matchup. I don't I didn't really want
29:37
Speaker 1: to do it San Francisco. I mean, they're actually still
29:40
Speaker 1: they're a fairly decent team, man, even with all the
29:43
Speaker 1: injuries that they have going on there, I mean, they
29:45
Speaker 1: could still compete. I didn't expect them to actually win
29:48
Speaker 1: the game outright, but they did so yeah. Interesting. So
29:54
Speaker 1: I'm still undefeated in my spread Leans and Thursday and
29:57
Speaker 1: it's crazy, dude, Thursday night and I almost never give
30:00
Speaker 1: out a play on the Thursday night NFL games and
30:02
Speaker 1: I'm like always right on the spread. It's insane. I'm
30:05
Speaker 1: five and oh Now I think on the Thursday night spreads, right,
30:09
Speaker 1: I did give out a play on the first one,
30:11
Speaker 1: the first one of the entire season with Dallas, so
30:14
Speaker 1: that was a winner that I gave it on the show.
30:15
Speaker 1: But since then I had, like Green Bay against Washington,
30:18
Speaker 1: I didn't give it out as a play though. I
30:20
Speaker 1: just that was my lean then I had. I did
30:23
Speaker 1: have Seattle last week is my lean. I leaned to
30:26
Speaker 1: San Francisco this week plus the points. And then what
30:29
Speaker 1: was the one game that I'm missing. I forget there
30:31
Speaker 1: was another Thursday night game in there, but I'm pretty
30:33
Speaker 1: sure I'm five and oh with those liens. Man, So
30:36
Speaker 1: those Thursday night games, it's like you isolate the game.
30:39
Speaker 1: You could just kind of focus on that one game
30:41
Speaker 1: and like, I don't know, it just makes me think
30:43
Speaker 1: correctly about the game when it's an isolated game, which
30:46
Speaker 1: you saw last week too. I gave out two college
30:48
Speaker 1: football plays on Friday in the three games, and they
30:51
Speaker 1: were both easy winners on two underdogs. Virginia outright win.
30:55
Speaker 1: Oregon State could have been an outright win as well.
30:58
Speaker 1: And I was also not really wrong about Arizona State
31:01
Speaker 1: last week either. Even though you laid the three, you push,
31:04
Speaker 1: but you picked against the Niners. No, I told I
31:07
Speaker 1: told you not to unless it was straight up I
31:09
Speaker 1: told you to take the Niners plus the points at
31:12
Speaker 1: least although in pick them, like on ESPN, they locked
31:15
Speaker 1: they had they forced you to lock it in at
31:16
Speaker 1: like a five and a half point spread. So I mean,
31:21
Speaker 1: in that case, it's a little bit more questionable if
31:23
Speaker 1: you want to pick San Francisco against that number, because
31:26
Speaker 1: they're giving you the way worse number, like once it
31:29
Speaker 1: crossed through the touchdown threshold. I was like, that is
31:33
Speaker 1: like it is way too high of a number. Oh
31:35
Speaker 1: on ESPN, like against the spread. I mean, I don't
31:38
Speaker 1: blame you if you laid five and a half in
31:41
Speaker 1: that game with the Rams, because the value was there, well,
31:44
Speaker 1: the value was sort of there based on the where
31:47
Speaker 1: the closing number was right, Like the closing number is
31:49
Speaker 1: usually the most accurate. So in that respect, yeah, I
31:52
Speaker 1: mean it crossed through that touchdown threshold, so not being
31:56
Speaker 1: able to get that full touchdown with San Francisco it
31:58
Speaker 1: does make a difference. So yeah, I mean I can
32:01
Speaker 1: understand that, And in fact I actually did the same
32:06
Speaker 1: thing on ESPN. I'm pretty sure in my I'm just
32:09
Speaker 1: in these overall pick thems, so you just have to
32:11
Speaker 1: pick every single game. I can't like not take the value. Like.
32:14
Speaker 1: So as far as like the line was concerned, I
32:17
Speaker 1: think I probably did lay the five and a half.
32:19
Speaker 1: I did that with Philadelphia in Week one too, because
32:22
Speaker 1: the line is up to like seven and a half
32:24
Speaker 1: or eight or whatever, but on ESPN it was like
32:27
Speaker 1: five and a half or six and a half. So
32:28
Speaker 1: I was like, I can't do it, man, it's on
32:30
Speaker 1: the wrong side of the touchdown. But maybe I should
32:33
Speaker 1: just stick with my handicapping as far as the side,
32:38
Speaker 1: because that seems to be a little bit stronger still
32:41
Speaker 1: than the value. So I probably should have just picked
32:44
Speaker 1: San Francisco even at the worst number at five and
32:47
Speaker 1: a half. But I certainly said that they were the
32:49
Speaker 1: right side at nine or eight or whatever. That line
32:52
Speaker 1: was just way too crazy. Colorado State. San Diego State
32:56
Speaker 1: is the last game here CBS Sports at ten thirty
32:59
Speaker 1: pm Mountain West matchup. This is not the days of
33:03
Speaker 1: old Man, where both of these programs were pretty good programs,
33:07
Speaker 1: especially San Diego State, really good program for a while,
33:11
Speaker 1: known for like good defense, running the football, decent quarterback play.
33:15
Speaker 1: That is not really the case anymore. On the total
33:18
Speaker 1: in this game, oh man, it opened it thirty eight
33:20
Speaker 1: and a half, ridiculously low total for a college football game.
33:24
Speaker 1: That's low for an NFL total, but for a college
33:26
Speaker 1: football game that's insane. That's like NFL from like the nineties,
33:32
Speaker 1: A thirty eight and a half total maybe two yeah, nineties.
33:35
Speaker 1: Probably it's up to forty one though, so some money
33:37
Speaker 1: did come in on the over here fifty eight percent
33:40
Speaker 1: of tickets, eighty percent of the couch on the over,
33:43
Speaker 1: So for what it's worth, some of the money has
33:45
Speaker 1: come in on the over in this game. Forty one
33:47
Speaker 1: is a key number though, so if you want the over,
33:50
Speaker 1: I think you got to play it at worst going
33:53
Speaker 1: over forty one. I would not want to go over
33:55
Speaker 1: forty one and a half. Eighty five percent of tickets,
33:58
Speaker 1: only seventy six percent of the cash on San Diego State.
34:01
Speaker 1: So they're a public favorite here the sitting at six
34:03
Speaker 1: and a half. Usually that's a bit of an indicator, man.
34:06
Speaker 1: When the favorite sitting at six and a half and
34:07
Speaker 1: the number has not actually moved to seven, it looks
34:10
Speaker 1: like it is teetering on maybe doing so. But when
34:13
Speaker 1: you have a really public side that's just laying the
34:15
Speaker 1: six and a half and the books still haven't moved
34:18
Speaker 1: into the key number seven, that kind of tells you
34:21
Speaker 1: something that they're just okay with taking all that action
34:24
Speaker 1: on the six and a half. So they're kind of
34:26
Speaker 1: taking a stand there. And with a low total like this,
34:28
Speaker 1: you know, I keep saying that again, I'm gonna say it,
34:31
Speaker 1: really low total, the points are worth more. So it
34:35
Speaker 1: makes more sense to take the points in a game
34:37
Speaker 1: of the low total like that unless there's some reason
34:39
Speaker 1: not to San Diego State. They've been in some just
34:44
Speaker 1: really really ugly games, man. I mean, look no further
34:48
Speaker 1: than last week when they won against Northern Illinois six
34:51
Speaker 1: to three. And San Diego State's quarterback Denegal, not Senegal, Denegal,
34:57
Speaker 1: he's the other African nation. He only put up a
34:59
Speaker 1: hundred ten passing yards. I mean it looks like San
35:02
Speaker 1: Diego State is getting something done a little bit on
35:04
Speaker 1: the ground, but this passing attack has been atrocious. Their
35:08
Speaker 1: defense has actually been good so far though. In three
35:12
Speaker 1: other four games they've allowed to combine three points against
35:15
Speaker 1: Stony Brook, I know, a bad FCS team, Cal who's
35:19
Speaker 1: kind of in a rebuild it, but Cal's not that bad.
35:22
Speaker 1: They shut them out, and then Northern Illinois. I mean,
35:24
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois is not a good offense, but they are
35:26
Speaker 1: a good defense in the MAC, so San Diego State
35:30
Speaker 1: held all three of those offenses completely down. They did
35:33
Speaker 1: give up a lot of offense to Washington State though,
35:35
Speaker 1: but it does look like the San Diego State defense
35:38
Speaker 1: might at least be coming around a little bit. The
35:41
Speaker 1: total being low. I mean, it could be another ugly
35:43
Speaker 1: game here Man and San Diego State. They're gonna be
35:46
Speaker 1: the public side because they're three to one, and people
35:48
Speaker 1: remember the days where San Diego State was good, so
35:51
Speaker 1: they kind of associate the name with that. Colorado State,
35:54
Speaker 1: there's no doubt Colorado State's pretty bad this year. They
35:59
Speaker 1: also lost to Washington State twenty to three, so their
36:02
Speaker 1: defense actually played better in that one. They lost to
36:05
Speaker 1: Washington Washington's not that bad of a team this year.
36:07
Speaker 1: They're actually fairly solid. Their only win was against Northern Colorado,
36:12
Speaker 1: an FCS team, and they barely beat them at home.
36:15
Speaker 1: Little brother situation though, so Northern Colorado, you know they're
36:18
Speaker 1: gonna get up for a game like that against an
36:20
Speaker 1: in state big brother. And then Colorado State lost to
36:22
Speaker 1: UTSA UTSA. Not that bad of a team though their
36:26
Speaker 1: program's been pretty good recently. In the wherever they're at,
36:30
Speaker 1: I think they're in the are they in the American
36:32
Speaker 1: I forget whatever conference they're in. So Colorado State they
36:35
Speaker 1: faced the more difficult schedule than San Diego State has
36:38
Speaker 1: so far, So somebody keep in mind their Colorado State
36:42
Speaker 1: is a little bit more battle tested. Although they don't
36:44
Speaker 1: look very good, they at least look decent defensively. So
36:48
Speaker 1: I can understand why this total is really low. I
36:50
Speaker 1: don't think I would really want to go with an
36:52
Speaker 1: over on this, to be honest. Like generally, when you
36:55
Speaker 1: see a total that looks really low, you kind of
36:58
Speaker 1: want a default to saying, well, well, the oddsmakers are
37:01
Speaker 1: doing that for a reason. So low totals you tend
37:04
Speaker 1: to want to actually look towards going under and really
37:06
Speaker 1: high totals, you tend to want to actually look towards
37:09
Speaker 1: going over because it looks like the value isn't there,
37:13
Speaker 1: Like it's your perception gets fucked up, right when it's like, oh,
37:15
Speaker 1: this is such a low total, how could it possibly
37:18
Speaker 1: go below this total? Or it's such a high total,
37:20
Speaker 1: how could it possibly go over this total? But the
37:22
Speaker 1: perception is usually not correct, like the odds makers are
37:27
Speaker 1: kind of fucking with your perception with something like that.
37:30
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure that I really do agree with
37:32
Speaker 1: the over in this one. These are again ugly offenses
37:36
Speaker 1: and deepfenses that have been pretty decent so far. If
37:41
Speaker 1: I was gonna play this game, I would probably take
37:42
Speaker 1: the points of Colorado State, though I don't really see
37:46
Speaker 1: much else other than the fact that if it's a
37:48
Speaker 1: low scoring game, there's gonna be value there. Colorado State,
37:51
Speaker 1: the reason why the record is worse than San Diego
37:53
Speaker 1: Sity' is partially because they've had a more difficult schedule.
37:58
Speaker 1: Both teams played last week, so there's nothing don't really
38:00
Speaker 1: see as far as that's concerned. Colorado State. One thing
38:05
Speaker 1: to keep in mind those it looks like they switch
38:06
Speaker 1: quarterbacks from Fowler Nicolosi to Brusseau, which doesn't look like
38:11
Speaker 1: it was any sort of downgrade really though, like their
38:14
Speaker 1: office just really hasn't gotten going, so I think maybe
38:16
Speaker 1: they're just trying to shake some things up there, so
38:20
Speaker 1: we will see. I do think it'll be a lower scoring,
38:22
Speaker 1: ugly type of game, though. Yeah. I mean, I don't
38:26
Speaker 1: even know what my favorite would be out of any
38:28
Speaker 1: of these games tonight, man. I mean, it's it's difficult
38:31
Speaker 1: to say. I mean maybe actually probably San Jose State,
38:36
Speaker 1: maybe because it's that anti public home favorite there. But
38:40
Speaker 1: I mean they're in a spot where I wouldn't really
38:42
Speaker 1: want to play them. I just think New Mexico is
38:44
Speaker 1: in an even worse spot. So no play is for
38:48
Speaker 1: me today, man. But those are the those are the
38:50
Speaker 1: thoughts there, Curtis. Thanks for hanging out, man, Learn to
38:53
Speaker 1: toad on Twitter, where I'm completely nuked. Now. Twitter should
38:58
Speaker 1: be sued. Although you can't go up and they're owned
39:00
Speaker 1: by the government, you can't. You're not gonna be able
39:02
Speaker 1: to assume them, man, even though they're uh, it's essentially
39:06
Speaker 1: a violation of the constitution, not allowing your speech to
39:10
Speaker 1: get out there. It's completely ridiculous, total bullshit. Learn a
39:15
Speaker 1: Tonde on Instagram where I do betting content, so I
39:18
Speaker 1: won't have any content there today because I don't have
39:20
Speaker 1: any plays. I'm not happy about anything right now, Like
39:25
Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here, man, better off dead. It
39:28
Speaker 1: helps me out. Let's try to blow this thing up, man,
39:30
Speaker 1: because this is really all I got at this point
39:32
Speaker 1: is my betting analysis here. Hopefully it's entertaining for people.
39:36
Speaker 1: I mean, I want to switch up the forum at
39:39
Speaker 1: a bit here. I'm on audio as well, so you
39:42
Speaker 1: can listen there. That helps me as well. Spotify Apple. Yeah,
39:47
Speaker 1: reviews helped me out there as well, covering you because
39:50
Speaker 1: my ukulele project on YouTube, and then Patreon dot com
39:54
Speaker 1: sash and Learn the toad. If you want to help
39:56
Speaker 1: me out there, you get some bonus ut content anymore
39:59
Speaker 1: bonus content more like listener streams. Maybe what I should
40:02
Speaker 1: do is have some bedding content to it. Maybe what
40:04
Speaker 1: I should do is have like a I know, like
40:07
Speaker 1: we're already in the middle of football season. I kind
40:09
Speaker 1: of do it on my normal show, but what if
40:10
Speaker 1: I had like an additional live stream that's literally the
40:13
Speaker 1: format is just you ask me about games and then
40:17
Speaker 1: you could do that there, and then you know, then
40:20
Speaker 1: I could just kind of do the normal show that
40:22
Speaker 1: I do as well. You know, I talk about so
40:24
Speaker 1: many games on that show. Maybe it'll reduce the amount
40:26
Speaker 1: of games I talk about on that show, though I
40:28
Speaker 1: talk about all the big games. So I don't know.
40:31
Speaker 1: Maybe or it's just you know, like a listener question
40:35
Speaker 1: session basically, I don't know. Let me know. If that
40:39
Speaker 1: is something that people would want, maybe I could do
40:40
Speaker 1: that as like a Patreon thing. All right, man, that's
40:43
Speaker 1: gonna do it for now. Happy Friday. Let's have a
40:45
Speaker 1: good week, and I'll be back tonight. We're gonna have
40:47
Speaker 1: some college football plays this week. There are a couple
40:50
Speaker 1: that I actually really like digging into it more. So
40:53
Speaker 1: come back tonight late tonight, midnight we'll have I'm gonna
40:57
Speaker 1: guess I'm gonna be somewhere in the neighborhood of three
40:59
Speaker 1: to four college football players this week. I know it
41:01
Speaker 1: won't be six like last week we at five and one,
41:04
Speaker 1: but I mean usually I'm around four. Just all kind
41:08
Speaker 1: of depends on how many situations set up where I
41:11
Speaker 1: think they're strong enough to actually want to do it.
41:14
Speaker 1: So we'll see. But yeah, be ready for that tonight man,
41:18
Speaker 1: I'll be back with you then. Peace.