Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - It’s Not A Blue Wave… Voters Just REALLY Don’t Like Republicans

Transcript

Super Tuesdays - It’s Not A Blue Wave… Voters Just REALLY Don’t Like Republicans · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: One month away. 28 days. This is crazy. That's Chuck
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Todd on Christmas. This is Super Tuesdays. Chuck, think about
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: what you can do in 28 days. You go to rehab.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: They made a movie called 28 Days. 28 Days. So
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: a lot can happen in 28 Days. You can get
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: sober in 28 Days. That's the thing. Is that the
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: wrong way to think about this? We're all going to
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: get drunk on political commentary for the next 28 Days.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Well, I was going to start here, but it's worth
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: at least going down this road for a minute. And
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: by the way, Super Tuesdays, like, comment, subscribe, Apple, wherever
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: you get your podcast, iHeart, go do it.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Hit the like button, subscribe. You know, I've been.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Trying, Chuck, and I'm sure you're doing the same process.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: And by the way, for anyone doing this process, I
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: recommend reading Patrick Ruffini at the intersection on Substack. But
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: I've been trying to think to myself, OK. It looks
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: like everything is pointing in this one direction, right? Whether
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: you're looking for the counterfactual, right?
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: 100%.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: And the two obvious counter, three obvious counterfactuals. One, Republican
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: spending advantage will matter in some material way. Two, the
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: polling is consistently just been bad and missing Republicans. And
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: maybe that's what's happening. Or three, and this is to
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: your 28 days point, It's October 6th, not November 2nd. And,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: you know, you're always trying to, I just, I don't
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: want to have the course correct post-election. I'm trying to
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: be like, you know, trying to take in all data
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: points and not kind of be like, well, that's not important.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Like, oh, the New Hampshire Senate race? Well, that's not important.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean? Like counterfactuals.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Where do you, do any of those three convince you
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: to be like, Maybe this will change.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Or one more than the other. Yeah, two weeks ago
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I would have said the money thing. I think I
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: would have too. Doesn't look like the money's done much
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: in these two weeks, right? Certainly not in Texas where
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the most money has been spent. They've arguably had this financial,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the Republicans have basically been, had the advantage in the
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: airways for six weeks now. At least a month. Right.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Enough time to your point. Enough time that we would
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: see movement if it was working. There's no discernible movement
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: in the Republican direction. And the only place you sort
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: of kind of see it is in Minnesota and New Hampshire.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: And that feels more like voters tuning in type of movement.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: And that is, look, If there is one missing piece
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: to this puzzle for me, because look, midterm polling's more
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: accurate than presidential polling over the last 15 years. So
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: this concern about the polls being a little bit over
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: their skis for one team or the other, presidential is
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: more volatile, right, of an electorate. And so, but that does,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: you know, The two counterfactuals that sit there are, one,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: people that could tune in that haven't tuned in yet,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and that's more likely to be a Republican voter than
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: a Democratic voter. And the second counterfactual for me is–
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I just lost my train of thought on that one.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: But it's sort of– basically, it's a form of turnout. Well, oh,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the second counterfactual is the most unpopular political party in
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: America is the Democratic Party. So you are staring, you know,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: which is why red undertow is a better description than
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: blue way. Yeah. Shout out to Charlie Cook. I totally
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I've been I've been screaming from the rooftops on this
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: and I've totally borrowed his language. I credit him every time.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: I'd like another level of more than undertow. Like I
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: want to- Yeah, like a riptide or something. Yeah, is
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: it a riptide? Red riptide? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: This is going to be- And explain why you think
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: that's more accurate. I know, but I want you to
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: explain why you think it's more accurate.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Well, when you look at this map, it's a map
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: that elenes Republican, right? This is a rip- Yes. This
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: election is not taking place in the purple battleground states.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: Nope.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: This election, for the most part, is taking place in
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: light light red, former battleground states, okay, in the case
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: of Iowa and Ohio, maybe in the lesser extent in Alaska,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: or states that have been moving from dark red to
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: light red, but not very quickly. Like Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, right.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So because we're sitting, this election is being held in
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: red America more than it's being held in purple America
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: or even blue America. it explains why Chris Pappas appears
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: weaker than James Tallarico, right? Because if you're unhappy with
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: the status quo, well, in a state like New Hampshire,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Democrats have been in the status quo. But in a
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: state like Texas, there's no Democrats to blame anymore, right?
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: It's like all been Republican governance, you know, up and
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: down the ballot. So it is interesting to me that
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: you see, which to me is actually fairly, again, Voters
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: behaving rationally. They're not happy. They're aware of who's been
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: in charge of everything in their state. And they've decided
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: they don't like the Donald Trump way. And, oh, our
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: guys are following Donald Trump over here. So maybe we're
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: going to try something different in our states. And it's
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the logical explanation for why Democrats in general appear sturdier
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: at the moment in some of these red states and
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: slightly vulnerable. I say slightly vulnerable. Look, I think Peggy
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Flanagan's a weak nominee, and in a better Republican year,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I think she loses. I don't think she loses in
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: this environment.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Well, there's a reason that the National Democrats wanted Angie
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Craig in that primary, because she was the more electable,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: but they.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Didn't win it. And they also didn't really- They didn't
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: play hard in it. Because of the Klobuchar effect, right?
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: They knew she'd be at the top of the ticket
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: and could drag everybody over. Had Tim Walz been the
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: nominee running for governor, I promise you there'd have been
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: a lot more effort to get Angie Craig that nomination.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: But you're right though, Chuck. I was just thinking through it.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: So I think that's the situation we're in.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: Well, I think you're totally right because the red– like
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: what you've seen– I was just going through in my
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: head while we were talking. Ohio, which did used to
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: have like some Republican statewide elected officials, some Democratic state officials.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. It was a straight up purple state in
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the first decade. All Republican elected officials, right? But the
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: first decade of this basically 2000 to 2012, it's purple
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: as purple as it gets. And then Iowa, similar story,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: was once purple.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Now the only statewide elected official is Rob Sand, who
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: is probably going to win for governor.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Texas, same thing. Kansas, all Republicans. You got a Democrat
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: at the top of the ticket, federal race. By the way,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: my favorite little nugget about how much voters are paying
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: attention and how bad the Republican brand is to voters
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: right now is– the time Santa poll asked voters about the,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: whether they were happy, you know, basically, uh, approve a happier,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: you know, right track, wrong track for their States. The
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: only state they measured that had a right track, a
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: net positive right track was the only state that they
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: measured that had a democratic governor, Kansas. That's fascinating. I
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: was for me, uh, reinforce my belief that I'd rather
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: be Hamilton than Marshall at this point in time. I'm not,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Do I, am I, I think Hamilton is the favorite now.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: That's interesting. He won't be, he shouldn't be. The history
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: says he's not, but if you're asking me, I'm just
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: watching this game on the field. You're like, Oh, that
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: team's that team should test without a turnover, right? Could
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Hamilton mess up? Could he say the wrong thing and
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: suddenly hand the race to Marshall? He could, but that's
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the point where we're, I think he's in the driver's
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: seat as long as he doesn't mess up.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: It's funny you mentioned the non-big-name races in the New
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: York Times-Santa Paula. By the way, they released five polls
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: over the weekend, all of which were good for Democrats
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: in varying quality. It showed the Senate race, 45-45 in Kansas.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: The one I was struck by, and it's the old
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: what's the matter with Kansas thing, because we've been talking
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: about this for a while, about the farm bill, is
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: The Democratic candidate for governor was like ahead by a
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: point or two over the Republican candidate.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: It was close. No, she was down five in that poll. Oh,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: she was. OK, I'm thinking of a different poll. OK,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I must be thinking of something.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Different because I was like, man, if that governor's race
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: is close, like that shows you something's going on.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: No, and the problem with that governor's race is that
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the person who won ran against the Democratic governor.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Her pick, right. Laura Kelly's pick lost in the primary.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And it was over the chief's deal. It was over
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: that deal. The bond thing in Kansas City, right? Yeah.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: By the way, I was in Kansas City, and I
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: happened to– my event was an event with Pointer, and
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: it was at a country club that has a golf course–
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: that Mr. and Mrs. Swift live on.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: And Mr.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Swift, Mr. Swift had come to hit nine holes while
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: we were getting there. Yeah, he digs golf. Travis likes golf.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I know that. This was before, obviously, they had a
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: road trip to Vegas, but he told me he got
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: in nine holes on Friday night. Hilarious. Popped in and
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: then jumped on the plane. I'm not going to say
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: the name of the club out of respect, but it was–
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Everybody was all at Twitter when they were like, oh, Mr.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Swift is in the house. I'm sure he loves being
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: called that. And then I come to find out, oh,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: it's the fifth hole. I'm like, oh, you live on
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: the fifth hole. Let's just say that that level of
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: detail played really well with my oldest child. Oh, that's
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: going to make you super cool.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Well, I want to stay on the Senate front because
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: our friend Jeffrey Skelly at Decision Desk HQ wrote something
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: good like, A good thought experiment that I thought was
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: worth our time. And he, of course, had a chart
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: because he's Skelly. OK, so this this is the question
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: he asked. And I'll put it to you first. If
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: you could know. OK, and we're going to do Senate.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Let's just stick with Senate. If you could know one thing.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: race result before election day in terms of your capacity
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: to predict what was happening what race would it be
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: which i think is like a very because we've talked
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: about we talked about iowa yeah three months ago.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Right i i have a very literally i answered that
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: question the second you asked it so i'll just tell
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: you right now i'll blurt it out go i was
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: that i was senate yeah that's the one so it's
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the one i'm most skeptical the democrats can win I
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: think it's close, but I most and I want to
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: know that result, because if the Democrats win that one,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I think they're winning everything. All right, so Skelly made
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: this chart. Can you see this, Chuck, or is it
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: too small? No, it's a good chart.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Okay, so all this is is right now the dotted
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: line in the middle is the current chance in the
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: DDHQ forecast of Democrats winning the Senate majority.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So it's 56%.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: So all this means is if we go to Chuck's Iowa,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: if Democrats win Iowa, they have an 80% chance.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Of winning the Senate majority, like just in a vacuum.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: He's saying, okay, if the environment is such that Democrats
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: win Iowa, they have a 80% chance of winning the majority.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: And if Republicans win Iowa, it doesn't, if Republicans lose Iowa,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: that's what it is, 32%.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: But here's why I pick Iowa, okay? Which I think,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: and unfortunately these charts, and I say this with lots
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: of love and respect, is that the charts are, he's
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: got a, you're factoring in more of the electorate itself.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: A hundred percent. And I think Ashley Hinson is a
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: great candidate. I think Roger Marshall is a bad candidate. Yep.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: The reason I think It's like if a good candidate
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: can't win in this environment as a Republican, then how
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: do bad candidates win in this environment as a Republican? Right.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: So I look at that. This is why. And I
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: sort of disagree with the percentage.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's possible Democrats win Kansas and lose Iowa.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: I think it's more than likely. That's how much confidence
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I have in Hamilton as a candidate, one. B, how much–
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: the lack of confidence I have in Marshall versus the
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: high confidence I have in Hinson as a candidate. And
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: I think candidates– when you're the party defending this, you're
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: in the bad side of the storm and you've got
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to figure out how to survive. The good candidates get–
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Sometimes they lose too. But the ones that win are
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: always the good candidates. Bad candidates don't win. Bad campaigns
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: don't win on that side when you're on the defensive
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: end of things. And that's why I come back to Iowa.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Here's the best scenario they could do. They don't have
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: their best Senate candidate in Ohio. They don't have the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: best candidate they could have found in Michigan. ditto in
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: texas we know this georgia north carolina one state all
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: right where i believe the republicans actually improved their chances
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: of holding a seat is iowa the trade of joni
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: ernst for ashley hinson was an improvement i say this
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: i i this is not meant as a dig at
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: joni ernst i just think Being an incumbent in this
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: environment was going to be a lot tougher. And in
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: some ways, Hinson has slightly cleaner hands. Yes, her first
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: name's Congresswoman and all of that. But, you know, she's
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: already shown me she's got decent instincts for what she
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: what it's going to take to try to win in
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: these in these headwinds. So it's you know, there's the
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: intangible factor as to why that race to me more
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: than any other will tell me because of a good
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: candidate can't win in this environment. For Republicans, Katie, bar
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the door, man. I'll tell you this. If I know that,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: I start to think that Donald's isn't going to win
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: in Florida. And Hinojosa might win in Texas. In fact,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: I was thinking about this earlier. I think we're in
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: a scenario where I'm going to give you three states.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, Mississippi, and Alabama. I think we're in a scenario,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: and I'll put it in football terms. I like it.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: which is the three incumbent parties in those places and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: the incumbent candidates, even if they're not incumbents, Darlene Graham,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Sidney Hyde-Smith. And Tuberville. Tommy Tuberville.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: All right. Yep. And it's like watching Texas football right now.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: They somehow keep winning, but you don't have a lot
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: of confidence that they can- I like this metaphor a lot. Okay.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: And it's like they're each a turnover away. Sure. From
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: losing this race. One mistake away. Absolutely. Darlene, one mistake
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: in the wrong moment at the wrong time by Darlene Graham,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: and she could blow the race. Ditto with Sidney Hyde-Smith.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: And it's possible Tommy Tupperville's furry speech might have already
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: be the material to have done him in. But it's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: all about airline pilots, Chuck.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if I were Doug Jones.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: You're like, OK, we've got to use this. What do
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: we do with this? Right. What do you do with it?
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: But the point is, is that I think that the
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: environment is bad enough where it doesn't take much at
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: this point for a Republican to blow it. And that's
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: the that's the scary scenario Republicans are in right now
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: in a variety of states. which at some point I
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: know we're going to bring in Texas and I want to,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: I want to get to Texas as a special case
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: here in a minute. But, you know, I think we're
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: days away from Republicans pulling the plug on, on Paxton.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: And I, and, and I think that. So that would
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: be huge. Well, I'm going to put on my tinfoil
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: hat a minute. Okay. Okay. You know, I love conspiracy Chuck. Yeah,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I feel like I'm ripping off- Two of my favorites.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: We're going to do JFK assassination later. I'm not ripping
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: off Bill Simmons here. He's like conspiracy pill. I don't
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: want to get out that road. But I'm going to
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: put on my tinfoil hat here because in politics, everybody
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: thinks there's a conspiracy. And I will tell you, I'm
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: not saying there's a conspiracy, but if I were say
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: running a Senate Republican super PAC and my job was
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to defend the majority and I saw this big sort
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: of money pit that was called the state of Texas.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: And I see this clown nominee who just doesn't know
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: how to, you know, doesn't accept the premise that he's
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: the problem. And he's not really doing what it takes
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: to fix his problems. And we're spending all this money.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: I might leak out. I might be. leaking audio to Politico.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: To make him look ungrateful to the president, to make
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: him look like it's out of his hands. Correct, so
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: that when I pulled the plug, donors and activists don't
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: get angry at me, said Super PAC leader. but they
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: get angry at Paxton because you know what? Hey, if
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: I were them, I'd pull the plug too. And you
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: know what? That money's better spent to save Roger Marshall,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: better spent to save Ashley Hinson. Maybe you can save
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: John Huston and maybe you can go steal the New
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Hampshire Senate seat with Chris Pappas or something like that.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: I promise you all that money is better spent somewhere
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: else than the money pit at State of Texas. I
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: find the Angela Paxton ad was I think- Doesn't mention
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: his name.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: Some people have done some things that some find offensive.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Right, I mean, this is a classic, this worked in
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: a focus group, so they thought, okay, we'll go ahead
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: and air the ad.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Or it's such a big problem, we have to find
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: a way to address it, but we're gonna kind of
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: half-ass it, because she can't, she's not gonna say exactly
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: what we need her to say, so we'll do our, like,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: I think it's more like they were like, we have
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: to do something.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: This is what they did. The ad basically says we
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: are we have no we do not care about character,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: morals or ethics anymore as the report. She might as
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: well have said we're the we're the Donald Trump's Republican
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Party and all of the critics of the party are correct.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: We no longer care about character. We no longer care
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: about morality. We no longer care about ethics. It's just
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: about owning the libs. So please own the libs, even
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: if you have to vote for my piece of you-know-what ex-husband.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: And it's like, I don't think that's a good message.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: And I'm sorry. I think a lot of people that
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: hear that, like they just, whatever vote they think they're
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: gaining from a Republican woman, I'm sure this is the
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: target group. Of course, SMU voters. The SMU moms, if
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: they think they're getting the SMU moms or the Texas
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: A & M moms by saying- The critics of us
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: are right. We have no character, no morals, and no ethics.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Please vote for us anyway. I don't think those moms
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: are going to, I don't think they're going to bite
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: on this message. I really don't. Okay. is assuming your
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: voters are morons. And I'm sorry, I don't think their
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: voters are morons. And I don't think this is going
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: to work. I have two thoughts.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: One, I want to circle back to a point we
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: made last week in the pod about the amount of
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: money being spent down there. A friend of ours, Republican,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: reached out to us and made a point that I
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: think is worth noting, which is that some of the money,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: which is now over like one hundred and fifty million
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: dollars at the Senate leadership fund, the main super PAC
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: that's spending is some of that there are a ton
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: of big donors in texas some of that money may
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: well have been earmarked to be spent in texas right
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: so i just because we were going back and forth
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: like why would you why would you spend that amount
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: of money it's possible it's like i'll give you 10
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: million dollars but i want to see it spent there
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: okay that's point one point two.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: After that amount of money chuck The New York Times-Siena
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: poll came out, and.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Tallarico was not just ahead by six, which we could
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: debate that, but he was at 51.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Over the weekend. Now, this assumed quite the electorate. By
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the way, this assumed quite the– I mean, the only
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: thing that makes me a little nervous about the Times-Siena
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: poll is that, boy, this was a pretty Democratic electorate
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: for Texas. Now, they could be right. It's a Democratic year,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: but you're right.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: I looked at that and I said, man, there is–
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: and you broached this last week. I think we now
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: may well be– and I think you probably agree with this.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: We now may well be in a place where you
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: could spend $ 750 million on Ken Paxton or against Talarico
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: and Paxton still wouldn't win.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean?
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: There reaches a point where it's like– He's just not
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: going to win. And I don't know if we're there,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: but if they, obviously if they pull out, they've reached
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: that conclusion.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: I'd go the other way. I don't think any amount
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: of money is going to win or lose this race anymore.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Like we've just reached kind of critical. It's a lot
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: of diminishing returns. Correct. And that's why it's like, boy,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: there's a lot. You have more runway to tell a story,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: manufacture a story in a place like Kansas. Frankly, you
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: better check South Dakota. Just trust me on this. You
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: better check Nebraska. And those are all places where you
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: still have a little bit of perceived credibility to make
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: a case. I wonder if Texas, if it's just, it's
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: kind of like where we got to in 16. Did
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: any amount of money matter anymore with Trump?
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: No.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Or Hillary. You had made up your mind. Right. And-
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: you knew what you were getting in Trump. And the
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: only question was, could you stomach him? And really, I
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: think this month becomes, can Republicans, and I think this
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: is the question now, is it about stomaching Paxton or
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: is it about stomaching Tallarico?
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: I think it's about stomaching Tallarico. I think the decision
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: has been made by enough Republicans that they can't stomach Paxton. Now,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: the question is, does Tallarico need them to vote actively
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: for him or simply not vote? That's what I don't know.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, that depends on what the electorate looks like.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: If Democratic enthusiasm is through.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: The roof and Republican enthusiasm is super low, then no,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: he probably doesn't.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: But if it's Just a hard state. I believe the
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: other part of this Texas poll is Tallarico was doing
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: better with Latinos than, you know, Osa, which means he's
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: got more room to grow. Like, I think there's, you know,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: it's funny. This happened to Obama early on where you
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: had hesitance among some African-Americans and it was less, it
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: was really hesitance of he can't win, can he? A
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: hundred percent.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: He had to get over a threshold of winning white
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: voters and then.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Right. And I think, you know, Osa, maybe in that,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: in that situation. That's a good comparison. And I expect
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: her to do better than any number of shows among
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Latino voters. I think the idea that she can win
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: is only going to, you're gonna see a boomlet there.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Here's the other thing. What could Paxton do? And I've
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: been thinking about this. Well, I know what he could do.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: The question is, is he capable of it, right? What
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: he could do is accept the premise of a debate
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: and see how that goes and see if Tallarico, frankly,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: talks too much. Right. See if he just sort of does,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: you know.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Smartest kid in the room. Yes. Annoying nerd asking about homework.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: You know, or something like that, that he overdoes it. Like,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: I know I'm surprised Paxton has said no to this
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: because I kind of think. Well, I mean, we.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: Know why he said no, because he probably loses. But
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: if you are running out of options- I think he's losing.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Right. And I think there's- That's right. He's got to change.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: You've got to change the weather. So you need a
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: new event. Well, you got to take a risk. You
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: got to take a chance. You got to take a risk.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Because that's the whole thing. So he's either got to
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: do the ultimate mea culpa- Which you will not do.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: But I agree. That's what I was going to say.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: I was going to say he does a two-camera ad
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: that is convincing about I've made a lot of mistakes
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: in my life, blah, blah, blah.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: But he's not going to do that. His problem is
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have a track record where he was ever
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: a good public servant. He's kind of been a a
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: grifter his whole time in office. And he's not, he's, he's.
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Not a sympathetic figure and it's very hard. He does
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: not have a sympathetic manner, but you're right. That's the
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: debate thing, which I hadn't thought of as interesting because.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: That's, you need to change the.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Prevailing narrative because right now the two lines are running
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: parallel and you're behind and you've been behind for a while.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: And that's okay.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: I want to, people know who tuned in last week,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: that Kelshi, is sponsoring super tuesdays and i want to
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: while we're here first of all thank you cal she
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: for sponsoring us uh second of all i want to
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: i was looking this morning through the markets and i
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: wanted because i knew we talked be talking senate so
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: this one intrigues me chuck let me share it okay
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: this is how many seats will republicans hold.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: After there's an over under on over under on a
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: good old-fashioned over under yeah But you can– look, so
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: you can go below 45, 45, 46.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: So I think the most common– yeah, the most common
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: right now is 48, which is interesting.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, 48.
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: 48.
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Well, that fits what I've always said, which is it's–
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: you know, they're not going to win exactly four.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: It's likely to be, you know, we've talked about many
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: times 50, 50 is actually while statistically likely given history,
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: not all that likely.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Right. Yeah. I think when you look at the, when
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: you start to go through the math, right. And you've
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: got North Carolina, Maine, let's go, let's, let's assume that the, the,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: the straightest shot is North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska. I
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: think that's right. Those four.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Um, Then you've got the next three are Texas, Iowa, Kansas. Yep. Right.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: So that gets you to seven. That's seven. I'm just
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: assuming the perfect. Yeah, of course. They win everything. Yeah.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: And then you've got the next layer is Nebraska, Mississippi,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. Yep. It's hard, you know, so that there's.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: That'd be 11. Or 10. 10.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: Seven.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: 10. Yeah. So there's. So that's, you know, I'm not.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: not throwing idaho on there and i'm not throwing montana
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: on there all right.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: That's uh less than one percent 57 less than one
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: percent chance right so but like in here chuck 54
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: so that would put the republicans down here right yeah
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: so that's 45 right so that would be right at
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: 45 um if.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Democrats what if they if they netted No, if they
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: net 10, what are they at now? They're at 47.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: So you're saying below 45.
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: 57-43.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, I sort of agree with this idea, which
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: is if you think it's 45, it's probably going to
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: be less than 45. Now, I don't have to think that.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I'm in the... I think it ends up being 53-47
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: if it's a big night. So that's six. Or we're
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: at 51. It is... I would be in that bullish case.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: I'd be sitting at 47, 48, 49 is the range
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I would do. And if I were investing in this
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: and you wanted to hedge like that, you split up
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: your money between 47, 48, and 49. Yes. You put
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: a third, a third, and a third. You could have third,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: a third, a third it. Maybe I wouldn't do that.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: You might decide to invest and put a little... buy
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: a few more shares of 48, essentially Republican stock, few
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: less shares of 49 i think i would.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: Buy 47 and 48 right now yeah yeah this one
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: i wanted to i just one other one i thought
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: this was interesting because we've been talking about okay if
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: this if this race goes then this race goes so
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: this is maine and texas so you can do Tallarico,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: the two Democrats, Tallarico and Troy Jackson, the two Republicans,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Pax and Susan Collins, or Tallarico and Susan Collins, which
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: is actually starting to tick upward a little bit.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, it's funny. If you're looking at what's the
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: best value on the board. Yeah, I think it's that.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Tallarico Collins is the best value here. That's the best
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: value on that board because I have more confidence in
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Collins winning than Paxton. And I have more confidence in
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Tallarico winning than Jackson. And so in that sense, look,
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Tallarico Jackson is still the most likely result. And it's
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: correctly priced here. But if you're looking for upside value
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: and you're looking at Tallarico Collins, and here's what you
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: would do there. So let's say The only thing that
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: keeps you from thinking that Democrats are going to pick
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: up six Senate seats is Susan Collins.
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: So what you do is you go ahead and bet–
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: not bet. I wouldn't make this as a bet. This
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: is an investment. So I don't– Yes. You put– you say–
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: So what I would do is I would buy a
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: share of stock and you would hedge– let's say you're
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: assuming that Republicans are going to be at 47 Senate seats.
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: But you're a little nervous about the Collins seat. Rightly so,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: rightly so. You buy Tallarico Collins. Yep. you participate in
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: that market.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: And then you also participate in the Democrats win the Senate.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: If you're right about the six, you get that. Win-win.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: If you're not, no, if you're not, but you're right
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: about Tallarico Collins, you essentially get your money back there.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: So it's one of those things where I would make
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: the investment. I treat the Tallarico Collins as a hedge. Yes.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: And I'd make the bigger investment in 47 Senate seats.
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: Yep. Yes.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: I just think that's, I am intrigued by, I want
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: to ask, first of all, thank you to Kalshi.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: We appreciate you.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: We look at these markets very regularly, right? Because it's just,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: it's an interesting, one of many interesting- It's an interesting check.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I will say this. I think some of the, I've
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: noticed that some of the gubernatorial markets are super bullish
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: for Democrats. Let me look. Hold on. You talk, you talk.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: I'm going to scroll. I think they're, go look at Acton. Well,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: this is interesting. So look at this one. Even. They've
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: gotten very bullish.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Nevada governor has Aaron Ford, 52, the Democrat. I mean,
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: I would assume Lombardo there.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: I would tell you this. Look at this, Chuck. 87%
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Rob Sand. Yes.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: I think he's probably going to win.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Oh, I think that's correctly priced. Okay, interesting. I will
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: tell you where I don't, where I think. It's possible
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: this all goes to the Democrats anyway. Acton, Aaron Ford,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: all this stuff. I think right now, I think all
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: of the gubernatorial, the collective gubernatorial advantages that Democrats have
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: in share price right now on Kalshi is all overpriced.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: for what the actual, what the actual probability is of
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: them pulling this off. I think it's collectively overpriced. I
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: think acting is too high. Like I'm not look. And
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: what I would say is I, I think acting is
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: going to win. Okay. I really do. I'd rather be
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: acting than Ramaswamy. I think polls in about two weeks
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: are really going to show a much big, much tighter
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: race in that. And I, My point is, is you
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: probably could make a little bit of interest on your
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: investment and get out of it. Now, that's one of
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: the great things about these markets. I guess this is
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: one of those- One of the way till November 3rd.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: This is one of those where I would look at
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: these gubernatorial, I was thinking about this today when we
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: were talking about our Calci segment.
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: I would look at a lot of those gubernatorial markets and-
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, I would invest in Joe Lombardo right now.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean he's going to win. I just think
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: right now he's underpriced. I think Ramaswamy is underpriced. I
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: think Tiffany is underpriced. I think it is– Because they're
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: swing states. They're swing states, exactly. I mean, it's just– anything.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: That's 80% likely is probably overpriced.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: I think they're safe investments in that you can get
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: out before they– before they all go sideways on you,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: if you think they're gonna go sideways. But you have
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: to stay on top of it. These are not ones,
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: these are not investments. I wouldn't make any of these
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: gubernatorial investments. I would be, put a reminder on your calendar.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Be committed. For October 27th and get out.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: And that is calchu.com and we are thankful to them. Chuck,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I wanna mention, because I don't wanna leave this whole
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: thing without, I think that Susan Collins might win. Now,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's a 50-50. I think she's an underdog.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: But this is a state that Donald Trump lost by
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: seven points in a far better national political environment for
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: Republicans than we are in today.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: If she wins, I mean, that has to go up
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: into one of the best victories of all time, given
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: the circumstances. So I'm trying to think of a- I mean,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: that's incredible.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: Overperforming the sort of brand by like 12 to 15 points.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: The biggest upset in 1994, when the biggest shock of
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: a hold in 94 for Democrats during- was probably chuck
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: robin virginia.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah now it was because he had been battered by
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: controversy and yes.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: And he and you know did he win or did
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: oliver north lose right you know.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: Literally anyway too wasn't it like it was a three.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Four way for a while and then doug wilder got
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: out doug wilder got out it was complicated but you're
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: right you would have you would have said chuck rob's
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: not gonna win it was hard to envision chuck rob
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: yeah right and he pulled it off so If you
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: think this is looking more like 94– and I do.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: This midterm to me looks less like 06 and more
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: like 94, that it's a little bit bigger of a
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: repudiation than 06. But we'll see. Yeah, we'll see. I
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: want to ask you one other– I just don't see–
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: I will say this. I think Troy Jackson has to
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: make another mistake or two for her to win. I
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: don't think she wins without him. I just can't see
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: how she can win in an... I don't see how
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: she wins in an environment like this. I don't either.
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: It's just.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Yes. I just can't make it add up. Yes, she is.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: People always say, well, she won in 2020. I'm like,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: it was a presidential year. Like, it's not the same.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Everybody voted in 2020. It's not a one for one.
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Turnout was through the roof. Everybody voted in 2020 because
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: everybody got a ballot at home. OK, we had the
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: perfect storm of electorate. Every single person over the age
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: of 60 cast a ballot in Maine. And that was
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: huge for.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: And by the way, Maine is the oldest state in
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: the country.
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: So it's not going to happen this time. I just
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: can't see it.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: But it's like she still hangs around. It's remarkable. Down three,
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: down two, up one, down three.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: But she's always going to have a high floor. Incumbents
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: have a high floor. The last incumbent to collapse was
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: on the- Democratic side, it was a Blanche Lincoln that
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: I can think of where it was just- Well, because
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: the state just totally changed underneath her, right? And the
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: other one was Rick Santorum when he lost by- And
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: the same kind of thing.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: The state was like, wait, this guy- I mean, even
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: Carol Mosley Braun way back when had a million problems
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: and almost won.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Now, Peter Fitzgerald won, but there is a very high
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: floor typically, even though people say they don't like incumbents.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: There's a pretty high floor. Well, she's been a good
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: at constituency service. And she's been there forever. You know,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is what I- This is what I'm
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: expecting to bail out Darlene Graham is the tentacles of
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: just being really good, running a really good Senate office
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: and that the super voter remembers that. And I think
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: that that's likely, but she really is not good at
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: this yet. And maybe she'll get better, but she's not
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: good at this yet. I want to pick up on
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: your one mistake away because I was, so I'm watching
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: my older son's travel soccer team play this weekend and
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: we go up 2-0.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: And at the beginning of the second half, they have
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: a free kick and the other team hits the goalpost,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: hits the crossbar and it goes out. And I'm thinking
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: to myself, as you were talking, I was thinking about it.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: It's like at 2-0, you're like, we're probably going to win.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: At 2-1, you're like, we're literally one mistake by a
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: defender or the goalkeeper from being tied. And I think
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: that it's 2-1 for Darlene Graham, for Pete Ricketts, for
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Cindy Highsmith. They're probably going to win the game 2-1.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: But man, there is more pressure on everything you do now.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Because if you make a mistake... Now it's much closer
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: to like a 50-50 proposition. You do not have the luxury.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: Darlene Graham no longer has the luxury of making a
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: high-profile miscue at any point in the next 28 days.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: Because at that point, she would either lose or come
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: very close to losing. I think that's a really important
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: thing to keep in mind because we're not saying.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: They're going to lose.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: They are just in a position because of either who
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: they are the year or a little bit of both
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: that you're one mistake away from being in a very,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: very real race.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: That's right. You know, right. It's interesting. Like Kansas graduated
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: from that, that ring to the next ring of, Oh no,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: it's a straight up competitive. Right. Where, um, because the incumbent,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: has made the mistake. They've turned the ball over two
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: or three times. And now, um, now the, now the
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: opportunity is there and, Oh, they had a really good recruit.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: They ended up with a four-star recruit, not a two-star recruit.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: Let's sneak in a little 2028.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: We often talk 2028 because I always say, look, 2020
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: has basically started already, but it'll definitely start on November 4th.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Somebody's going to announce that week. It's happened in the past.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Tom Vilsack. That's right. Tom Vilsack. Like two days after, right?
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Two days after.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was the Friday or three days after.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: We talk about Democrats a lot. Field's going to be bigger, right?
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: But a couple of interesting things have happened in the
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: last couple of days on the Republican side. And you
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: and I are both, I know, fascinated by like, what
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: does post-Trump look like?
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: First, J.D.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: Vance has been saying this for a while, but he
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: said over the weekend, you know, look, Ted Cruz is
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: already running for president. To which Cruz, who had ignored
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: this in the past, said, sounds like J.D. 's a
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: little bit insecure. Ted Cruz's words, not mine.
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: That makes me assume Cruz is running. And to your
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: point that you've made before, believes J.D.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: To be maybe paper tiger is overstating it. But someone
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: who is not going to walk to this nomination.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, it's interesting about what's being set up here, right?
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Which is Vance has decided he wants Cruz as his foil.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: It is totally purposeful because he's done it multiple times
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: until Cruz noticed it.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Vance is going, I can– if the– this is the great–
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: one of the great Biden– there's a few good Bidenisms.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: One of them is don't judge me by the almighty.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Judge me by the alternative. Just one of the terrific lines.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: It's a good line. He's used it for a long time.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he took it from somebody. I don't know.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Of course. A lot of political lines. I'm not making it–
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: it's not a– Isn't that me disparaging Biden on this one?
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: I've certainly, you know, and I think if I'm J.D. Vance, yeah.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: You know, I suddenly look like a more appealing candidate
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: standing next to Ted Cruz, he thinks, right? Yep. And
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: so I certainly would rather Ted Cruz be my chief
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: rival than Rand Paul. I'd rather- Well, that's interesting. You would.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: I thought you were going to say Marco Rubio, which
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: I 100% agree with. Sure, but I don't think Marco-
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Explain the Rand Paul thing.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Well, Rand Paul is going to be the most credible
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: anti-Vance candidate that exists for a variety of reasons, because
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: he has been against the couple of, let's just take
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: the two most unpopular things Trump has done inside the
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: conservative movement, in the larger umbrella of it. It's tariffs
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: and the war with Iran. And Rand Paul is credibly
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: against both. Ted Cruz is kind of a neocon and
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: was all for the Iran stuff. He's also been all
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: over the map with Trump. He's kind of a wuss
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: on tariffs. He doesn't have the guts to be pro-free
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: trade because he sees where his party is at the
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: moment and he knows Iowa. Yes, Paul can make the principled.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: He's the most more principled. opponent that's interesting that vance
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: has to face so if i'm vance i'd rather have
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: this be against cruz so that a paul doesn't get
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: traction so that uh you know i i sort of
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: i don't see the john kennedy thing it feels like
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: a vanity project to me i know he floated maybe
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: it's to sell books president feels like a book sale
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: thing and look i get it saying you ran for
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: president is a resume builder, right? You can't take that
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: away from Alan Keyes or Gary Bauer, right? Those guys
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: can always say they ran for president.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: Can I just read his quote to you, Chuck? Because
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: I agree with you, but John Kennedy's quote is so good.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: I haven't made a decision. If a bunch of, on
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: my side of the aisle, if a bunch of goobers run,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: and I think they're goobers, and one of the goobers
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: might win, and I think I could do a better job,
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: I would consider running. Terrific use of goobers three times
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: in that quote. But yeah, I agree with you.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to do another book. There was
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: a missing follow-up question. So is Donald Trump a goober?
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Is J.D. Vance a goober? Well, he also had that.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: If you're thinking about, right, you know.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: He had that quote about Trump over the weekend, too,
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: when Trump posted Tom Cotton's. He said he can go
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: from zero to a-hole in three seconds. John Kennedy, from
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: a journalistic perspective, would be great because he's so quotable.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: It'd be interesting in the race. But I agree with you.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: I think it's kind of. It's going nowhere.
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: And, you know, these guys, they get older. He's in
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: his 70s. It's like, OK, it's going to be. It's
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: like Chris. Right. Like he's just going to run. What
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: people don't realize about John Kennedy is that he's basically
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: he is a professional politician and he's been a politician
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: his whole life. And he has dreamed of being, you know,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: when he was a Democrat, he ran for governor and
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Senate a bunch of times and lost. Got elected to
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: state treasurer, I think, as a Democrat. State treasurer. Switch parties.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Switch parties. And that's how he finally won a Senate seat,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: doing that. But the point being is that if being
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: a Democrat were the path to the presidency in Louisiana,
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: he'd still be a Democrat.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: 100%.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: If being a Green Party member were the path to
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: the presidency, he'd be a Green Party member. Like, I
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: believe that about Ted Cruz. By the way, I believe
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: that about a Josh Shapiro. I believe that, like, I
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: think some people just– They, they want to be in
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: the mix and whatever.
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: It's a, it's a fine line between, you know, viability and, comfort,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: all of those things, there's some people who they're going
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: to run for president at some point in their life,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: and they're just going to find a rationalization.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: It's Lindsey Graham. I mean, that's the way to explain.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: We talked about this, but that's the way to explain.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Lindsey has said that.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: He said it.
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: And he was a 1% candidate. That's John Kennedy.
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: He wants to be in the room where it happens,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: with apologies to Wesleyan grad Lin-Manuel Miranda.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: He wants to be in the mix. And so I
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: think it's that. But so. But basically, John Kennedy has
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: as much John Kennedy has as much viability to run
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: for president as I do. And I probably get more
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: people asking me to run for president than anybody is
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: going up to him. It's bizarre these days how often
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: this is happening. You can run as a reformed third
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: party candidate.
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Exactly. It's sort of. But my point is, is that
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: if if I had an ego that could be satisfied, sure,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: I could find a rationalization to run. Speaking of an
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: ego who can't be satisfied. My head is not that hungry.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: I went through Trump's Ohio speech from this weekend. He
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: literally says, I know more about everything than anyone, which.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: Is just an amazing quote. If you're John Husted, what
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: do you do? He's coming back. I know. Don't you
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: see this? He's coming back to the state again, like
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: a week late, a week from now. I can't blow
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: my source on this, but there is a Republican incumbent.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: that Trump's going to go campaign for, that the campaign
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: is like, no, but he doesn't know how to say no.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: And they- How do you say no? They've told people
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: around him, try to convince him otherwise, and it doesn't matter.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: He has it in his head, right? Everything Trump is
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: doing right now is based on what worked for him
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: in the past, right? Why is he going to football games? Well,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: in the past it worked. The Alabama trip is where
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: it all started. Why am I going on these rallies? Well,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: the rallies worked before. Maybe they'll work again. Hey, why
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: am I promising people cash, you know, a chicken in
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: every pot? Well, it seemed to work before. Now we're
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: giving old people money.
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: He's like, here's $ 90. He said, $ 90. You think your vote,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: thank God. They wouldn't, the vote wasn't for sale for $ 5, 000. Right.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: You really think $ 90 is going to work? It's so transparent.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: It's literally like buying people off. It's just remarkable. You know, it,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: Just because this works in getting people to get you
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: a Diet Coke while you're on the golf course. Totally.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I'll give you 20 bucks for a Diet Coke. Speaking
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: of golf course, the rationale he made on daylight savings
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: was so he could get an extra nine holes in
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: of sunlight. Are you at all self-aware about this economy?
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: It's unbelievable. You want to be on the side of
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: the person who could afford to do night golf?
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Tom Cotton is like Tom Cotton is like people are,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: you know, we're having to get up.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Kids are getting up in the morning and in the dark.
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: And Trump's like, yeah, but but I mean, I can
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: play golf at seven thirty at night.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: It's like so unbelievable. You know who Tom Cotton we
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: should we should describe. There's there's a certain Republican that
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: I'm going to start referring to as a meatloaf Republican.
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: Hmm.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: And what I mean by this, I'll do anything for Trump,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: but I won't do that. Oh, yes. You know, and
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: like Cotton has been one of these guys.
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: He basically will do I'll do anything for Trump. Totally.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: But I won't do that. Fascinating. That's the thing. Well,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: they all have a that.
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: And right. They all have a that. They don't know
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: how to always articulate it until Trump forces the moment.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: And like this issue, like Arkansas is just geographically in
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: a place that this is just devastating to them and
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: to the state, which is the whole reason why we
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: created time zones. The whole reason why we created this
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: sort of, you know, first of all, if you were
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: going to go to permanent, you would do permanent standard,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: not permanent daylight. That's right. But regardless, it is, you know,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: there is this meatloaf caucus of Republicans. I like that.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: I'll do anything for Trump, but I won't do that.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: And we found what the that was for Tom Cotton.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: And the other thing, too, is like, and I know
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: we know this, but like the lack of loyalty. Tom
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: Cotton has been with Trump on everything. And it's like,
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: you're not with me on time zones. Let me publish
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: your cell phone number.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Do you know how... Look, I've known Tom Cotton professionally
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: a long time. We've known him for a really long time.
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to sit here and say we're... No,
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: but we know him. I saw him. He lives somewhat
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: close to me. I see him. I say hello. He's a...
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: for a politician, a normal dude. Okay. I say that.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Totally decent human.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Like good dad around his kids. Correct.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Just sort of a normal dude who happens to be
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: a fairly normal dude who's a politician. And again, people
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: may not think I'm normal or you're normal. So, you know,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: take that for what it's worth. Well, for a politician,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: he's quite normal. There's a lot of Trump's policies Cotton
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: doesn't like. And they almost all begin and end with trade.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: In particular, but, you know, I could go through it,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: but he certainly doesn't like the deficit, the way he
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: blows up.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: He's like a traditional hawkish conservative Republican.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: But the point is, is that Cotton has bit his
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: tongue on it. All of this nonsense that Trump has done.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: And then on the one thing he stands up to
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: Trump on, which is not really a left-right issue.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: Not at all.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: It really is an elitist. This is the ultimate elitist issue.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Only the elites care about this. He cited golf and
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: tennis in the true social post, Chuck. Why didn't he
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: put croquet in there and squash? Don't forget to follow.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: It's like the most elitist.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: It's just now.
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: Anyway.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: All right. I have to run soon. So but I
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: don't want to end without talking. I wanted to talk
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: baseball playoffs. You know, can I can I throw out
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: one thing that I feel like I'll forget if I
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: don't do it? Of course. That's what this is for.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump Jr. 's potential to run for president. Bolsonaro jumped.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: 20 points. Let's do that before we do sports. I
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: think Trump's obsession with Bolsonaro tells you, I think the
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: likelihood that somebody with the last name of Trump is
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: running in 28 has only gone up. And I think
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: you see Trump's obsession with it. The fact that Bolsonaro
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: son is able to have success, I think could very much,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: you know, if I were JD Vance, I'd be a
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: little nervous that suddenly daddy Trump is going to decide, huh?
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Maybe we shouldn't run Vance. Maybe we ought to run
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: somebody with the last name of Trump. It's working in Brazil,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: so why don't I try it?
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Well, it's working in Brazil with a far-right populist, and
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: the dad is scandal plate.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: Jair Bolsonaro, driven from office, tried to... Is there anything there?
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: Is there any similarity there? I totally agree. Running as
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: a far-right populist against elitists. However, I personally believe what
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: we're witnessing in Brazil this cycle is... America 2024. Lula
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: is Biden.
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: And Bolsonaro is- An old-time establishment ruling party. Yes.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: I would urge people, though, Flavio Bolsonaro is Jair Bolsonaro's son,
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: and he finished first- You just.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Like saying the word Flavio.
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: Flavio.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Flavio. And he finished first.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: He and Lula will be in a runoff on October 25th,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: but the expectation now is that Bolsonaro- the son will
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: be the next president of Brazil. Thank you for mentioning that.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Cause you said, I think that is Don jr. Once
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: we both know this Don jr. Wants to run for something.
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: He has the bug now, whether that's president or they
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: find it's hard to run in Florida, unless Byron Donald's loses,
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: but like he wants to, he will run for something.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: The question really is what and when, right. And we
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: know Laura Trump's kind of into running for something. Yeah, 100%.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: She will run for something. She already said no to
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: two Senate races. Anyway, I just think the Bolsonaro. I
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: think that's fascinating. Wait a minute. Did Laura Trump say
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: no or did Rhonda Santos say no? It's a great question. Okay.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: It's a great question. Okay.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: I have watched a lot of baseball playoffs and I
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: will admit, even though I'm a giant baseball fan of
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: the Nationals.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: I do not watch a ton of playoff baseball. I
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: don't know why.
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: I'm really into the Nationals and not that it, but
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: I will say this. I watched Cam Schlittler pitch for
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. I was unaware how good he is.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: He was out. He was really good last year, too.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, when he he was the he was the
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: revelation in the playoffs. Holy cow. And they had been
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: holding him really for the playoffs. And he's as advertised. Look, man,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: the Yankees have the starting pitching to get to the
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: World Series. Yes, they do. The question is, do they
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: have enough bats without Judge in the lineup? I mean,
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Ben Rice is certainly– He's great, but he's one person.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: No Stanton. You throw in a Judge with Rice, and
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: if they can get through– boy, if they can get
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: to the ALCS, because you're playing the winner of this Sox-Guardian. Look,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: I'm all on the White Sox bandwagon. I've got family
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: that's been White Sox fans their whole life. The White Sox,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: you want to talk about the real chip-on-their-shoulder fan base? Yes.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: Try being the White Sox, right? Like forget always a
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: little brother to the Cubs. Forget the Clippers, right? Like
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: you look at these second teams in the big markets, right?
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Your Clippers, your White Sox, your Mets. I think the
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: White Sox are both the most successful of those. Actually,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: they've got multiple championships on one hand. On the other hand,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: It's always, they're very much the working people. And of course,
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: the White Sox.
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: The gap between who roots for the White Sox and
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: who roots for the Cubs is, oh yeah.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Except the Pope has really equalized things. So I will
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: say the White Sox and the World Series with the
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Pope involved. That'd be awesome. would be amazing. I just
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: don't see anyone beating the Dodgers. I know that it's boring. Well,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you how you beat the Dodgers. It's how
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: the Braves did it on Sunday night. Nine pitchers. Well,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: they stole a game. Look, they stole a game. They
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: should not have won the game. And they didn't have to.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: And they have Chris Sale on full rest on Tuesday.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: Now they got to, again, we know the recipe for
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: beating the Dodgers is to get them in the five game.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: You're not going to beat them in a seven. No,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: too much pitching. Too much pitching in a seven-game series.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: But a five-game, you know?
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: It's a five-game series, and you've split with Scooble and
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: Snell in the first two.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: That's pretty damn good. I mean, you've got to be
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: thrilled if you're the Braves in that situation. Oh, and
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: they didn't have to– yeah, they had– yes, Sale pitched,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: and I think he pitched Joe Tani. Yeah, but he can–
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: I agree. It's, so it's, it's gettable. I just, I just,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: it's like, I just always kind of assume that. Can
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: I just tell you, we're, we're, we're, we're sort of
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: the Jack Centurio moment. Forget, I mean, I mean, this
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: is what, this is what kids dream of. It's incredible.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: This is, we've all had that moment, bottom of the ninth.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Of course. You know, the only thing missing was that
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: this ended the series, right? It didn't end the series,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: but it might've. Yeah. That's a tough to come back from.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: I actually, I wanted to raise this with you. They
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: were going to be 1-1 and this is now 2-0.
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: What do you make of the controversy of the Thai-France
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: thing hitting the roof? I got a huge problem with it.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: We got to change that, don't we? And I think
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: that was a home run. I do too. That was
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: going to be a home run. But that's what I'm saying.
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: How do we have to change? There has to be-
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Does the math lie? We all know how to do angles.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Of course. We can measure this. Especially now when everything's measurable.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: We know how far that would have traveled. And, you know,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: we've got the, what's the golf, what's the tech golf
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: thing that Tiger Woods does? TGL, whatever, right? Yeah, TGL. Yeah,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: where they hit it into the, they hit it into
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: the thing and it shows where it goes. And they
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: estimate what it is. Like the point is that we have-
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: They use the track man thing. Yeah, correct. We have
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: all this technology. We know the answer. Okay. We know
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: the answer, which is that I, I have to say,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: if I'm a Padres fan, I'd be so pissed. I would,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: this will, this, I would have complained to the commissioner.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: I would have asked for, and there certainly needs to
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: be a better ground rule because again, Math don't lie. Nope.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: And we know that would have been a home run.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: There are track mans in every MLB stadium.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: So they know.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: The angle and how long it would have gone.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not going to tell us. Okay. And
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: here's my other issue with this. So they said, well,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: if it hits that and you catch it, it's an out?
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Okay. But if it hits the net, and bounce it
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: in foul territory, you know the net that protects the fans.
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: But it hits the net and it bounces off the
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: net and you catch it, it's not an out. Yeah.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: So why, to me, it's just a consistency thing. The
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: minute it hits something artificial. It should be either in
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: play or out of play. Right. It is either a
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: dead ball.
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: Foul. I think it has to be foul. Or you
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: could call the roof, you could say ground rule double. Yeah,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: that's actually a good point. Here's what it can't be,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: an out. No, you can't just catch it. It can't
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: be an out. It either should be a foul, a
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: estimated home run, and if you don't want to do that,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: then it should be a ground rule double. I think
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: I would land on ground rule double.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: The only thing that's an issue there is if you
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: hit a sky-high pop-up in the infield that hits the roof.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Well, no, what you can do is designate where on
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: the roof it has to hit. Like where it hits, yeah. Right,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: like there's just... There's certain trajectories. Of course. And we
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: know that now more than ever.
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: It was sort of once it hits there or farther,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: it's a ground rule double. If it's up there, it's
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: a foul.
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, we used to do that all the time
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: playing wiffle ball. It's like if it hit above the fence,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: it was a double. If it hit below- it was
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: a triple.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: We've all had our sort of like house rules 100%
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: for wherever we've played you know whether it's wiffle ball
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: I mean we had a We had a bush monster,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: we called it, the green bush monster that we would
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: create for our little wiffle ball game. I love those days, man.
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: Shout out to Brett Rosillo, the greatest wiffle ball pitcher
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: I ever saw in my childhood. I could never hit
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: that kid. He would throw it by me on his
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: driveway 500 times a summer.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: No kidding. Cousin of Ryan Russillo. I heard it. I
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: heard the Russillo, I assume. That's how we, we're all
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Connecticut people. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Totally.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: I got to run. He's Chuck Todd. I'm Chris Eliza.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Shout to Calshi for sponsoring us. Go like, support, subscribe. Listen,
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: you know why we have sponsors? So we're not charging you.
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: So it's free. That's why we do it.
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: Enjoy this free hour of content from Chuck and I,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: courtesy of Kalshi. Go check out the Chuck Todd cast
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: three times a week. Go check out Beyond the Pod
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: with Chuck Todd on Substack and go check out Dynastic,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: which is Chuck's long form pod with J.A.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Adande on Substack.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: I was going to say dynasties, but you guys are
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: doing like other cool stuff too.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: I don't totally. We had a, we had an interview
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: with Kevin Harlan, who is the best voice. Yeah. He's
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: what people don't know about Kevin is his father. Basically.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: He was the president of the Packers. I didn't know that. Yeah. And,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: and I, and became an executive at the Packers and,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: you know, young, young Kevin Harlan grew up basically from
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: the age of 10 on in green Bay and, And now,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: of course, he calls the preseason games for the Packers.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: But his father, I would argue his father built the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: modern Packer dynasty, meaning the one that began in 1990
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: that got us Reggie White, that got us Brett Favre,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: that got Aaron Rodgers and what we have. And hopefully
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: where Jordan Love is a part of this. Two and
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: two team currently. Boy, the single worst two and two
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: team in the NFL. So uninspiring.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: 17-14 over the Buccaneers without Baker Mayfield.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: The two wins for the Packers are the New York,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: New Jersey Jets. Yeah. In overtime, mind you. And then
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: the three-point win over the Bucs without Baker. And a
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: three-point win. We haven't scored more than 20 points in
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: either of our wins. The only time we've scored more
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: than 20 was against the Vikings, who apparently kicked dirt.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: I thought Matt LeFleur was an offensive genius. Did I
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: miss that? You know what it's tough to do? It's
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: tough to run your offense when you have no offensive line.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: They literally signed three guys off the street, and it
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: was an improvement. Like Jordan Love didn't get killed.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: So for other Green Bay Packers related facts, go to
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: Dynastic and check out what Chuck and Jay are doing
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: over there.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: All right, everybody. Take care. Chuck, we are four weeks out.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: See you.