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Mac & Bone Show - Tyler Fulgham Interview · Mac & Bone Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: He is ESPN's Tyler Fulgham, and he joins us here
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: on the Mac and Bone Show. Tyler, thank you for
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: coming on, man.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: How you doing? I'm doing great.
• 0:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just got a text from Willie P, too.
• 0:10
  Speaker 3: He said, hey, I heard you're about to be on
• 0:14
  Speaker 3: my station. So, yeah, dude, I got to run. So
• 0:17
  Speaker 3: shout out Willie P, my guy.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I love it. There we go. He wanted me to
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: tell you, quote, that he's the real sauce boss.
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: Oh, come on, Willie P. You know better than that.
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: You know better than that.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Because you've been on Food Network before, right?
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been a contestant on Guy's Grocery Games a
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: couple years ago. I competed in a mini-series within the
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: series where it was multiple episodes. like a small tournament
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: within Guy's Grocery Games.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Nice.
• 0:45
  Speaker 4: You're basically living Willie's dream life. You're hosting SportsCenter, and
• 0:48
  Speaker 4: you're on with Guy Fieri.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Oh, that's big. That's big. Mizzou putting out some food guys.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Mizzou puts out food guys and sports media members, Tyler.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: It's what we do there in the Midwest. Not much
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: else to do.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: I love it, baby. I love it. All right.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: So you had the thoughts on some of the NFC
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: South teams that really caught our eye this past weekend.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Let's start with the main one in regards to the Panthers.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: How do you feel about that Panther over-under number going
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: into the season?
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's lined at 6.5, 7.5, depends on where you're shopping.
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: We at ESPN are graphing. So I went down to
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: 6.5 for a little more juice at minus 166. But
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: I do think this team, based on what they did
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: last year, is ready to kind of go. kind of
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: grow a little bit i went over six and a
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: half wins if you want to go over seven and
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: a half i think it's plus money um but you
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: know i bought a little extra security there um for
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: seven instead of eight i do think they can get
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: over two and a half division wins i think they
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: know at least 500 in the division as well that's
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: minus 165 at drafting and if you're going to win
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: seven or eight games they probably need to win at
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: least half of their nfc south game we know that
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: division is you know One that's been mired in mediocrity.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: It doesn't take a lot to win that division. So
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: that's why I think they are a legit contender in
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: the division. I think almost everyone except for Atlanta because
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: of their QB issues, and we'll see if Michael Pinnock
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: is able to be healthy enough, can compete for that division.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: But I do think this is a seven, eight-win team.
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: If they absolutely hit their ceiling, nine or ten wins.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: Bryce Young, though, I do think Dave Canales is still
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: going to want to hide him, especially because The receiving
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: core took some hits with injury here this season. They
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: still have Ted McMillan and Jalen Coker, but I do
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: think they're going to try and lean on Chuba Hubbard
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: and Jonathan Brooks, especially now that he appears to be
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: somewhat healthy. I don't know. He was off to the side,
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: in fact, this week. So I went under 20.5 passing
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: TDs for Bryce Young. Just concerned about injury. and think
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: this will be a run-first team that relies on the
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: run game and defense to try and win games.
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: How much of the offensive line concerns you right now
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: when it comes to Bryce? Because it was not a
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: good showing here in the preseason.
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's another reason, another factor into my under 20.5
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: passing touchdowns for the season. Bryce is obviously not the
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: biggest guy, and it doesn't appear that he's going to
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: have the best offensive line they're from. It's not going
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: to be Buffalo's offensive line or Denver's offensive line. It
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: could be a bottom half of the league offensive line.
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: And if he takes a bad hit, he misses some
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: games because of the slight stature. And again, the fact
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: that I don't think they're going to be a pass-first
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: team at all, that's why I'm under 20.5 passing TDs
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: for the season.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: We're talking to betting analyst from ESPN, Tyler Fulgham, here
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: on the Mac and Bone Show. Yeah, it seemed like
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: you went under on two bets in the NFC South.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: And Atlanta, as you said, was one of those. You
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: went over on two and the Panthers were one of them,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: but you also went over on the Saints number.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: Talk about that a little bit.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Like, I clearly am trying not to trash talk the Saints, Tyler,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: because they beat the dang Panthers twice last year.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: So I'm trying not to say anything.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: And it did look like Tyler Shuck has a little
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: something the way he played down the stretch.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on the Saints? And like, are
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: they your pick in the division?
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: They are.
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: I have them as the best bet at plus 270.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: It doesn't mean necessarily, and that's what happens oftentimes with
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: betting analysts, like making a smart bet doesn't necessarily mean
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: it's the thing that you think is going to happen.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: What you're trying to do is buy probability on a value.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: And I think the probability of the Saints winning the
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: division at plus 270 is a good value. That's, you know,
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: like a 30% to 35% chance, and I think they're
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: closer to like a 40% or 50% chance. I'm going
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: over 7.5 wins. I think Kellen Moore is a really
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: good head coach. I think Tyler Shuck in that offense
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: can be really good, adding Travis Etienne. I think they
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: have a decent offensive line. The Jordan Tyson injury hurts,
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: but I do think the Saints at plus 270 are
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: the best value amongst the four teams in that division.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: to win it. So I like them over seven and
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: a half wins again, eight or nine, maybe all it
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: takes to win the NFC South. If these teams beat
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: up on each other, I think Travis ATM because of
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: the Alvin Camara injury is I rarely like to bet
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: season long overs because normally in the game of football,
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: you're going to be injured. Things are going to happen.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: Unders are far more likely to happen for season long props,
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: but one of the rare season long over props I'm
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: taking is Travis ATM over eight or 24 and a
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: half rushing yards. They paid the man, they're going to
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: want to use the man, and they're going to have
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: to lean on the man in the first few weeks
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: of the season because it looks like Kamara and that
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: running back room is thin behind him.
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: Tyler, you mentioned McMillan earlier in one of your breakdowns.
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: What's your numbers and betting perspective on the year that
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: TMAC could have?
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I really liked the proposition of TMAC having another
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: big year. I think he's a really good receiver. I
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: think the Chris Brazel injury can kind of sneaky, potentially
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: be bad for TMAC because Brazel was going to be
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: one of those guys who was on the field to
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: be a tactical weapon. Use his long speed to threaten
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: the defense over the top and create more space for
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: TMAC to work in the short and intermediate areas. Now
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: with that speed gone and that threat gone from the
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: receiving core, defense is potentially... could tighten things up in
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: the short intermediate area. But T-Mac is a beast. He's big,
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: he's strong. He can win even if he's not creating separation,
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: but he's still able to do that at his size.
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: So his, his line was just one I wanted to
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: stay away from. I think it was right at a
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: thousand yards for his over under, which I think is
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: a good line. I don't, I don't see an edge
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: one way or the other. So that's why I stayed
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: away from it. Wouldn't be shocked at all. Again, if
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: he goes over a thousand yards, but again, my thesis
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: is this is going to be a run first team.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet on him going over for
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: a team that I think theoretically is going to lean
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: more into the run. So if I was more likely
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: to bet on a season long over, if I knew
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Brooks was going to be healthy for 17 games,
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: I'd hammer his over prop because it's going to be very,
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: very low since he hasn't played a game in the
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: NFL so far.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a tempting one because you know he has
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: the ability, but it's just a matter of does he
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: stay healthy. Tyler, I'll ask you about the Bucs, another
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: team you were talking about, hey, playing the under. They're
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the favorite, though, to win the division. What do you
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: feel about this Bucs team this year?
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: I know this.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: We're hoping to see one that resembles the second half
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: of the year last year here in Carolina more than
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the first half of the year.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I have them under 8.5 wins. That's minus 136.
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: under three and a half division wins, that's minus 125.
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: It really is a division where you kind of look
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: at it and it's like outside of Atlanta, again, unless
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: Pennix makes a big step, because I think Tua is toast,
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: everyone's going to kind of beat up on each other
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: and be right around 500. So Tampa Bay is priced...
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: as the most expensive, the most likely, the favorite team
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: in the division, I'm going to bet against that. That
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: doesn't mean I think they are going to finish last
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: in the division. They're the favorite for a reason. But
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: it's a division that is likely going to be chaotic
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: because all these teams are separated by the thinnest of margins.
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: So I think the value is only under those 8.5 wins,
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: the 3.5 division wins. And then Reuben Bain, season-long prop,
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: under six and a quarter sacks at even money. Bain's
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: obviously a really talented pass rusher, really productive in college.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: Just a different beast coming to the NFL. I mean,
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: Jared Hurst, I'm a Rams fan. Jared verse one defensive
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: rookie of the year after a dominant rookie season coming
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: out of Florida state for the Rams. He had like
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: four or five sacks that season. It's just really hard
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: to come into the NFL and rack up a lot
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: of sacks. So again, if he misses games, that's going
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: to help me in that regard. I like to take unders.
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: I just thought that line was a bit too high
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: because of Bain's college profile. So I like the under there.
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: Tyler, a college football question before I let you go.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: Of the two big ACC matchups.
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: That they're involved in this weekend, Louisville Ole Miss on
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: Sunday night, Clemson LSU tomorrow, which team of Clemson LSU
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: do you think has more of a chance of pulling
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: off an upset?
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: It's a really good question. I think it's Louisville has
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: the better chance of pulling off the upset. Clemson has
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: to go to that valley. Louisville's playing a– a neutral
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: site game. Louisville, I think, is maybe the better team.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: They're at least ranked better to start the season. They
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: have Isaac Brown and All-American running back. So I would
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: say Louisville is, I would give them the 5% better
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: chance to pull off the upset. I gave out two
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: plays this morning on SportsCenter for each of those games.
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: I like the over in the Louisville-Ole Miss game. I
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: think both offenses are going to light up the scoreboard.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: I like the under in the Clemson-LSU game. I think
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: Dabo's defense will go into Death Valley and make things
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: a little trickier for Lane Kiffin and his squad than
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: they want it to be. I think it's going to
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: be a bit lower scoring game than the total of
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: 50 and a half. Meanwhile, I think in Nash Vegas,
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: I think we're going to have a track meet, a
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: shootout between Louisville and Ole Miss.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: Miss.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: All right, Tyler, great to talk to you, man. We
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: appreciate the perspective. Keep up the good work. And it's
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: good to know that the folks in Mizzou do not
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: acknowledge Willie as the sauce boss because he is telling
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: everyone in Charlotte he's the sauce boss.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, rest assured, Carolinas, we produce much better than Willie P.
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: Sorry that you guys had to do that. That was
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: a production.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Oh, that's beautiful. All right, brother, keep up the good work.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Thanks for coming on. All right, man.