Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Thomas Coughlan: Herald Deputy Political Editor on the latest polls on the eve of the US Election

Transcript

Thomas Coughlan: Herald Deputy Political Editor on the latest polls on the eve of the US Election · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Right, It's election day tomorrow. Everyone is excited? Well is
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: everyone excited? I suppose people are highly anticipating the result
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: of the election. That's a fair way to put it.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Thomas Cogan is the New Zealand Herald deputy political editor.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: He is in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the king of the swings.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: So what's his pick for what is going to happen?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: We'll go to I'm Live now. Hey, Thomas, Hey, Marten R.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Good to have you on the show. What are you feeling?
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: What's the vibe?
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: The vibe changes wherever I go. I've been asking myself
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: this question since I got here. I was in North
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Carolina a couple of days ago and it was feeling
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: very kind of trumpy. I'm in downtown Philadelphia at the moment.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: That's that's always going to be pretty harris so and
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: it does feel like that. And then I was in
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: the suburbs of Philadelphia a couple of days before that,
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: and that was feeling a bit of a mix. And
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: all the poles are saying it's incredibly pous, and it
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: honestly feels that way. It feels like there is no
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: convincing lead right aside?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: What about this idea of polster herding. Is there any
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: truth in this I idea where the polsters are all
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: waiting their outcomes to be roughly the same, because it
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: does seem odd that every poll pretty much I mean,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: you have that Iowa one the outline the other day,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: but every pole pretty much has the neck and neck.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Shouldn't we have more?
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Right? So you mentioned it, I away, Yeah, you mentioned that,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: I think the Trump by three points, and it's a
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: view like it's a very there's not just any polls,
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: it's one that's been very young. The money for presidents
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: there is got it wrong. The last three elections, two
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: presidential elections and then the last minimum elections are quite wrong.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: They have been looking at the methodologies to improve them,
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: and in doing so there is a convicting to be
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: made that they might be updating Donald Trump argument on
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: the chances and we won't know the answers of that
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: until the results are counters. But that actually does seem
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: like a very kind of potential potential outcome to what's
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: going on. It just because it is really quite weird
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: that all these poles are clustering, and they had hundreds
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: of poles over here, Ryan not like us every day we.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Have the well we pretty much have till bought Mills
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: and the Taxpayers Union doing us proud exactly. Hey, what
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: about the Houses of Congress? Who's going to get the Senate?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Who's going to get the because there was talk that
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Republicans will definitely keep the Senate. Do you think that'll happen?
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: It looks like a toss up at the moment. So
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: there are half a dozen races. I mean, in Pennsylvania
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: at the moment, they've got quite a contenitive Senate race.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: So it honestly, they could be they could be split.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: They could all go one way, they could all the
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: other way. Again, I'm not sure. Again is too close
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: to all?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: How much of this do you think will come down
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: to the you know, the Democrats and the Republicans getting
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: their base out versus those independents breaking one way all
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the other?
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Well, sorry that I see.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: How much of this will come down to the Democrats
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: and the Republicans getting their base out versus the independence
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: breaking for Harris or Trump one way or the other.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: It actually it's I mean, does seem like a bit
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: of both. I think the Democrats are focusing on on
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: on trying to do a bit of both, definitely doing
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: the turnout game and but also trying to trying to
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: break independence that way, it seems like the Republicans are
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: just simply focusing. The Republicans have always been quite skeptical
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: of early voting, but this election they are very, very
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: keen to get early voting, to get early voting across,
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: to encourage the voters to early vote, because they don't want,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: you know, if there's a mass of blood tomorrow or
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: a rain storm or something that keeps people away from
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: the polls. They want to make sure that there as
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: many of their voters of voter as possible so that
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: a free giving like that doesn't doesn't then me chances.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Thomas, thank you very much. We'll let you get back
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: to the campaign. Thomas Cognan, Herald's deputy political editor with
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: us in Pennsylvania. For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks it Be from five am weekdays,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.