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Market Manipulation?📈Trust The Tariff Pause?📉 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Do you trust the tariff pause around the markets? Are
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: we seeing some manipulation take place?
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: Right now?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: We'll break it down for you. My name is small Bearer.
• 0:13
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• 1:17
  Speaker 1: about this one right now. Anyway, let's get started today.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I do want to go into the lead on this
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: in terms of where this market is pivoting and how,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: because remember.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: We had this quick move. All of this is.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Built around these tensions with China.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Take a look, hey there, David.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: As the dust settles here after the President's reversal on
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: tariffs yesterday, the focus here is now on what comes next.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro told me that the
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: administration is going to come up with a schedule for
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: negotiations given that they just can't physically conduct seventy five
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: simultaneous trade negotiations with the countries that are interested in that,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: which leaves the big open question of what's going to
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: happen with China where President Trump is increasing tariff's National
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: Economic Council Chair Kevin Hassett on CNBC this morning predicted
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: there will be negotiations, but Chinese embassy spokesman Lou Peng
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: Yu striking a defiant tone in a statement today saying,
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: if the US wants to talk, our doors remain open,
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: but dialogue must be conducted on the basis of mutual
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: respect and equality. If the US is bent on waging
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: a trade war China, we'll fight to the end. And guys,
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: if we're tracking, which factions have the upper hand here
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: at the White House now, I'm told that there were
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: only three people in the Oval Office yesterday making the
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: decision to reverse course. They were Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, Trade advisor Peter Navarro, a staunch
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: advocate of tariffs, I'm told was not there. One other
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: thing I'm told guys this morning is that there's going
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: to be a series of meetings here at the White
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: House throughout the morning as they work on how to
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: tier these negotiations, Which countries go first, which come in
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: the second tier, which come in the third tier, etc.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: All that being worked out behind the scenes right now.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: God now, granted, what is happening right now as it
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: appears that the Trump administration has started to flow down
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: negotiations with almost everyone with exception of China. China, of course,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: holding right now at a total of one hundred and
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: forty five percent in terms of tariffs. The US imported
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: right now four hundred and thirty nine billion from China
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, so it's pretty significant overall in
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: terms of the economic impact on the United States and
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: also on China in general. China also is starting to
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: look at maybe some other alternatives here.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: I'll zoom in on that right there.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: China and the European Union agreed to start negotiation to
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: abolish EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, so they are
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: trying to get bid and others that we'll be able
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: to sell into the European Union. Though that is a
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: good market, it's not the market they really want, which
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: is the United States.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: That's the question I have is whether or not they're going.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: To see much move on negotiation deal of any kind
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: of vehicles into the United States. US import dependence by state.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: This just gives you an idea. All the red is
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: meaning greater dependence up to twenty five percent right there
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: in terms of total share of US imports from China,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: and these are on based on state levels, so you
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: can kind of see some of the biggest ones out
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: there in Nevada, California, Washington, a lot of these states,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: even Oklahoma had fifteen percent, that was surprising, Florida, where
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: we are based, eleven percent, Texas holding nine, which is
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: a big one because Texas is a large state. Let's
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: take a look further into the data, because Nike is
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: another one that's facing supply chain crisis now with US tariffs.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: This is all coming out of their Vietnamese imports. Some
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: key points within this article forty six percent tariffs on
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Vietnamese goods by the United States. This of course places
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the Nike supply under considerable strain. I'm curious as to
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: whether or not the Trump administration has Vietnam set up
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: for and a on this, or if they're going to
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: go down to what everybody's been trying to propose, which
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: is zero for zero, which I think is the big
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: one that everybody's pushing for. You look at that, and
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: then you also compare this to some other things that
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: right now are going on within the market, because remember,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: as soon as Trump put the pause on the market's
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: absolutely ripped. And of course today we've seen a retrace
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: on most of this, but Trump ignited and possibly an
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: insider trading situation where accusations are coming after these u
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: turns that he's caused market manipulation after posting on social
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: media that it was a great time to buy.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised the SEC is not calling this out right now.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: But S and P five hundred blue chip index closed
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: up by more than nine percent.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: That's insane.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: This is, of course, the constant gyrations that are coming
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: out of this policy. Many people look at this as
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: opportunities for insider trading. So is it possible that this
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: could be the case?
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Still up in the air.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: But what I will say is this is that this
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: is a very unstable ecosystem. When you look at the
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: markets in general, and when you have unstable ecosystems like this,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: market manipulation is usually the key. It's one of the
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: tools that are used to be able to benefit from them.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Here's Senator Warren talking about this right now.
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: And right before Donald Trump declared that some of his
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: tariffs were off again, he sent out a message to
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: his billionaire buddies. He posted, this is a great time
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: to buy in all caps. Was that market manipulation? Was
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: it corruption? In plain sight? We need an independent investigation
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: into market manipulation because Americans need to know whether President
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: Trump or anyone in his administration manipulated the market to
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: benefit their donors, all while they are working for the
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: American people. Congress could end this dangerous trade war right
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: now by passing my bipartisan resolution with Senator Ron Wyden
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: to turn off the fake emergency authority that Donald Trump
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: is using to impose his worldwide and chaotic tariffs. So
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: I have a simple question for the Senate. Why aren't
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: we passing this resolution this instant?
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So you can see Senator Warren definitely position against this
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: situation with tarras and trying to get into an architected
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: move here to pause all of this through Congress.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: Now, all of this a gorse goes.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Into the way these terriffs have been constructed. This is
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: the guy Jamis's greer is his name? This is one
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: of the guys that pretty much put this package together
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: for the administration. This is where Congress goes a little
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: bit deep on asking how and why?
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: Take a look is this market manipulation?
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: Then what is it? Because it sure is not a strategy.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: We're trying to reset the global trade system.
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: What has that done?
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: How have you done? How have you achieved any of that,
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: but to enact enormous harm on the American people, which
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: was our concern from the very beginning. Tariffs are a tool.
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: It can be used in the appropriate way to protect
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: US jobs and small businesses, but that's not what this does.
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: Who's benefiting what billionaire just got richer? And all the while,
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: there are not even any Republicans left in this hearing.
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: They all left because they don't even want to defend this.
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: But meanwhile, the Speaker is rushing to the floor to
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: pass a budget reconciliation to screw America by passing the
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: biggest tax cut in history on the backs of the
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: American people.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: WTF, man, these guys are definitely getting heated up there. This,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: of course leans into the very topic he's talking about,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: in that is the passage of a bill that sets
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: the stage for one of the greatest moment and most
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: important signings in the history of our country. And what
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: they're talking about is the largest tax and regulation cuts
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: ever even contemplated. So this is the scenario that is
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: playing out right now in DC. Now I can say this,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: unless you were in on on insider trading, you were
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: losing money in the markets. If you were a billionaire
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: in fact, maybe losing billions in the market. All of
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: this playing into where the market was getting very nervous.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Here's Tom Lee talking about is he still nervous or not?
• 9:37
  Speaker 6: Take a look, Tom, were you getting nervous?
• 9:43
  Speaker 7: Yeah, John, I was getting very nervous. I think the
• 9:46
  Speaker 7: biggest sign was I was going to bed every night,
• 9:50
  Speaker 7: checking futures, reading everything, and wondering if the market would
• 9:55
  Speaker 7: open limit down.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: So I was getting very nervous.
• 9:58
  Speaker 7: But of course, now this is a really big positive
• 10:02
  Speaker 7: fundamental development.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: I think one of the.
• 10:04
  Speaker 7: Positives is that I think the White House exercised the
• 10:07
  Speaker 7: Navarro put, meaning they are now inserting best and more
• 10:11
  Speaker 7: into the negotiating process, which I think is less.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: Of a hard line view.
• 10:17
  Speaker 7: When I look at what this means for the next
• 10:19
  Speaker 7: few months, I do think it because of the tariffs
• 10:23
  Speaker 7: and they've been dialed down. Companies now have what's effectively probation,
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: So if they cut guidance or they don't show guidance,
• 10:32
  Speaker 7: markets can look through it because they know it's an
• 10:34
  Speaker 7: adjustment process. So I think it's taking the pressure valve
• 10:38
  Speaker 7: of investors panicking on earnings.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I agree with Lee on the sense that it is
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: taking some pressure off. Now when you look at the markets,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin of course ran up, it has retraced under eighty.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: Again. We've seen all of these.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Kind of you know, very volatile moves in the past.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: The thing though, that is in I think interesting, is
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: how Lee is looking past this in the sense that
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: all right.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: We've got to reprieve here.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: But the likelihood or let's hope, because of Scott Besson
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: being injected into the negotiations, we could actually have some
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: deals starting to flow through. So if those deals actually
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: come to reality, then this could be a perfect time
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: to be looking at the markets. And of course a
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: lot of people right now very very unsure, and I
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: think that's probably the better position to hold. You also
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: look at the Chinese stocks which are moving in because
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: they joined the rally.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: Take a look this clip.
• 11:34
  Speaker 8: I think there was really fascinating more than any other
• 11:37
  Speaker 8: market is what we saw in terms of reaction from China.
• 11:41
  Speaker 8: When chump announced at the same time the higher tariffs
• 11:46
  Speaker 8: on China and at the same time the relaxation in
• 11:50
  Speaker 8: the more global tariffs. The market rally, the Chinese shaded
• 11:53
  Speaker 8: stocks in the US took off at that moment in time,
• 11:56
  Speaker 8: so the market saw it as a positive. Why would
• 11:58
  Speaker 8: that be, I think two weeks one higher tariffs on
• 12:01
  Speaker 8: China directly at this point, it's going to only cause
• 12:05
  Speaker 8: incremental pain that may hasten the idea of more support
• 12:09
  Speaker 8: and simulars from China. We're seeing that already in the
• 12:12
  Speaker 8: weakening yen un. We're seeing that in the Pollet Bureau
• 12:15
  Speaker 8: talking as well. Secondly, I think that the market was
• 12:19
  Speaker 8: also more happy about this idea that there is flexibility
• 12:22
  Speaker 8: within the Trump regime and how that could result in
• 12:26
  Speaker 8: some relenting at some point in the future for China.
• 12:28
  Speaker 8: Then it was worried about these additional tariffs that are
• 12:30
  Speaker 8: coming in right away. So I think that that combination
• 12:33
  Speaker 8: has given Chinese equity traders a little bit more encouragement
• 12:36
  Speaker 8: and hope. Now, you know, as always, the policies seem
• 12:40
  Speaker 8: to have disappointed us, So we'll wait and see what
• 12:41
  Speaker 8: Pollet Bureau can say to do sentiment further from here, all.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Right, So, as you can see, this is a global
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: effect on the global trade system that is being implemented
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: right now as we cross kind of the threshold of
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: at least stage one, which is shock and awe that
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: has happened now everybody's taking him serious to a certain extent. Here,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: of course, is the EU now putting its countermeasures against
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: the US tariffs on hold for ninety days, so tit
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: for tat, they're kind of backing down off of defcon
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: What is a defcon one? If you go further into this,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Canada also agreed to negotiate a new trade deal with
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: the US as well, So EU Canada big trading partners.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: The potential is real.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Further into this, you have to imagine did people just
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: not really think when I say people global leaders not
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: really think that Trump would pull the trigger on this.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: This is where Anthony Scaramuchi talks about that.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 13:41
  Speaker 9: There's a lot of lack of clarity on where things
• 13:44
  Speaker 9: are and where things want to go. President's a declarative guy,
• 13:48
  Speaker 9: tell us where you want things to go.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: He's the president. I'd like him to succeed.
• 13:52
  Speaker 9: Those are the things that I would be recommending.
• 13:54
  Speaker 6: His unpredictability that I think he sees as a strength
• 13:58
  Speaker 6: in negotiations is part of what unsettles the market. The
• 14:01
  Speaker 6: lack of visibility. And I guess what's the friction point
• 14:05
  Speaker 6: between those two. Did we actually see a Trump puok
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: come in yesterday, or how do these things?
• 14:10
  Speaker 9: Well, I'm going to I'm going to take the president
• 14:12
  Speaker 9: and his staff at his word. Maybe he was trying
• 14:14
  Speaker 9: to scare everybody, and maybe he was trying to make
• 14:17
  Speaker 9: a statement to the world, and maybe maybe this was
• 14:20
  Speaker 9: some systematic things that are all.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: Right, so you can kind of see.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, these are people that remember that Anthony Scaramuchi
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: worked with the President in his last administration. Even though
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: it didn't end well, the point was is he understood
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: I think, to a certain extent where the Trump administration
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: is coming from. And I would agree that. You know,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: when you look at Shakanah, yes, that has occurred. It
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: has brought a lot of turmoil to the markets, but
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: it has also brought in a lot of renegotiations. Now
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: we'll see if this plays out on the positive side
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: of this. What you can look to is where the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: market is right now. Inflation now is down. We have
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: talked about this slightly, is that there has been a
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: concern as to whether or not the inflation would continue
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: to hold.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: And you look at inflation, you also look.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: At the CPI, which fell to two point four below
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: expectations of two point five so this is core CPI. Again,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: this would be in a position that would be beneficial
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to the FED if they start to see enough pressure
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: coming in to lower inflation. Let's just remember one of
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the key inflation measures is energy. And when you look
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: at energy right now, crude oil holding right now at
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: its highest, which was back in May of twenty twenty two,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: now a barrel of oil down around sixty bucks. And
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: remember OPEC also just release out that they were going
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: to release more productions, so that's most likely going to
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: continue to drive energy cost down, which of course will
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: have an impact on inflation overall. Here, of course, is
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: true inflation index right now one point three four And
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: if you look at this, this is the one year.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the month just to show you the
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: drop we had right here from kind of a sideways
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: from one point seventy nine this step down to one
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: point three. So again trueflation showing on a downward trim.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Problem is it does have a lot of hits on
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the market. One of the biggest things that has to
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: occur for these markets to correct is going to be printing,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: and the way that's going to happen is with rate cuts. Well,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: right now, the rate cut percentage just dropped from sixty
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: percent yesterday to nineteen percent today, meaning the likelihood of
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: rate cut in May is off. Very interesting stuff guys
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: right now. Good news is that Paul Atkins, who is
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: now the new head of the SEC, is the first
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: pro crypto SEC chairman era, So this may be a
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: big opportunity for crypto in general. I think it's only
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: going to open up the pipeline in terms of innovation
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: here in the United States where the SEC is not,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: you know, quashing so much innovation when you look at
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: blockchain as a whole. That's the good news for today
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: right now. Let me know how you guys are trading this.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Do you think there was market manipulation? If you do,
• 17:05
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• 17:07
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• 17:10
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• 17:14
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• 17:15
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