Latest / Yaron Brook Show / Energy Crisis & the War; Gold; Cuba; Save America Act; Apple News| Yaron Brook Show

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Energy Crisis & the War; Gold; Cuba; Save America Act; Apple News| Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Thing and you can edit the beginning. A lot of
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: fundamental principles.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: I love freedom, national self interest, and individual wise.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: This is the Ran Brooks Show. Oh, everybody walk up
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: here on the book show, on this take two of
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the show.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: With a little bit of technical problems, I apologize that
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: here we are. Everything's working today. We're going to talk
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: about Primelli. You know, the thing that dominates the news,
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: and that is the Ywon War. We'll talk in particular
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: about its effects on energy and.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Gas prices.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Uh, you know l G natural gas prices as well,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about So that'll be, as has been the
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: case for the last few weeks, that will be the
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: dominant part of the show.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: That is from a geopolitical and from a domestic perspective,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: that is the number one topic on everybody's minds. So,
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: as I talked about yesterday, Israel struck the Iranian UH
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: natural gas facility in uh in in in the natural
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: gas field that Iran, the field that shares with Kato
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: on the other side of the of the Persian Gulf.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Uh. You know, So a few things to understand first.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: The natural gas and this facility in Iran are basically
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: all for domestic consumption.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So the Ranians use that.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Natural gas for powering electricity in Iran. So by taking
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: out the natural gas in this plant, Uh, basically, it's
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: not hooding export markets, it's not affecting income to u ON,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: but it is affecting their ability to power electricity in Ion.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: It is getting us closer to turning you on dark.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: Let me not something I think that's important. If the
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: United States and Israel we're fighting this war properly, no
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: holds bods, no game playing, no qualms, I don't know,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: just war theory or whatever, then they would have already
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: have basically darkened youon. I mean, there's absolutely nothing constraining
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Israel in the United States from taking out the entire
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: power infrastructure of the Uranians to light up their world.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, imagine UoN functioning with all electricity.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: This would be crippling of their military, be crippling of
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: their civilian lives.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: It would encourage Iranians.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: That have risen up and and and done something maybe
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: about it. It would have made it would have distracted
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: the military from dealing with internal strife.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: But we don't do that. We don't do anything that
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: might hoot the civilian population.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: We just you know, we used to use I mean
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: this is interesting, right used to used to use big
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: bombs that had huge impact and as a consequence, had
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: significant collateral damage. Today we use small bombs that are
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: unbelievably precise, so that no collateral damage happens.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Well, the consequences to that.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: The consequences to that in terms of how many, how
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: you know the kind of damage you're doing to.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: The infrastructure involved.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Anyway, the Israelis to take out or at least damage
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: the facility that provides natural gas too in Iran itself.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Will see if this has consequences for locrisity production eat
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Iran over time. I don't I don't expect anything to
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: happen instantaneously, but over time.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: And this is.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: So. This happened yesterday immediately Iwon launched an attack on
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: the Katari oil fields. I sawry natural gas facility and
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: by estimates today reduce the capacity of that facility when
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: it's turned on. It's turned off right now because the
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Qataris can't ship any LNG liquefied natural gas out, so
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: they turned off the facility.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: But it will.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Reduce the ability of the facility to produce LNG by
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: seventeen percent, and by some estimate it might take them.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Up to three years to fix it.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Now, I think that generally there's a lot of exaggeration
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: out there.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know that it really take them three years
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: to fix this. Thequtaries have a.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: Lot of incentive right now to play the victim and
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: miserable and things are bad and we're being attacked and
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: poor us and it's all Israel's fault.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: By the way.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: But anyway, now that all of that natural gas, all
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: of the natural gas Kutta produces, about twenty percent of
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: all the liquefied natural gas in the world comes from Kuta.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: So they are exporters. Then the.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: Dominant use is not internal, it's for export. So no,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: there are two ways in which we get natural gas.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: We can get natural gas through pipelines, where it just
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: stays natural gas. Most of the natural gas in the
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: United States is delivered to us by pipeline. But if
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: we want to transfer natural gas across the ocean, if
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: we want to export it long distances, there is a
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: process by which the natural gas is turned into a liquid,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: loaded up on ships transported where it needs to go.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Then there's a facility on the other side that converts
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: the liquid.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Back to gas and pipelines take it to whits needed.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I think about Japan.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Japan uses liqual fight natural gas for much of its power.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: It is now turning back on many of its.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Nuclear pop plants.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: But if not nuclear, natural gas has become the dominant
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: way in which we power.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: We produce electricity in the world.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Why it's cheap, it's clean, and we have now which
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: we didn't have decades ago, but we have now a
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: way to move it around the world.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Liqui fight natural gas.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: The United States, because of the facking revolution, has become
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: a massive natural gas exporter, and we export natural gas
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: by this methodology of liquified natural gas. Think about Russia
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: transporting natural gas to Europe.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: That was all by pipe. When Ukraine War happened, and when.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: Some of the pipelines got destroyed, Europe immediately built liquified
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: natural gas depots to get American liquified natural gas and
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: Katari liquified natural gas.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: So as the power Europe.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: Europe uses natural gas again to produce much of its electricity.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: The alternative, of course, it's coal.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: You could also burn oil, but coal has dominated electricity production,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: and then over the last couple of decades it's been
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: natural gas because again natural gas is cheaper, it's a
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: much less pollution as a consequence of natural gas. So
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: natural gas has been involved in really a revolution over
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: the last few decades in reducing the cost of producing
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: electricity and making a dramatically cleaner to.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: The extent that you consider CO two emissions.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: You know, bad in some way if you do, then
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: liquefied again, natural gas a lot less emissions than coal.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: So the world has been moving to natural gas. Even China,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: which is still building coal pop plants, a lot of
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: it is natural gas. Now. One of the reasons China
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: still builds coal because China wants sophistfication. It doesn't want
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: everything to be natural gas because then it is one
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: hundred percent dependent on the streets of homoes to get
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: its natural gas and the kataris and and you know,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: so they can't shut down all electricity in the country.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: If something happens. So they have coal, they have a
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: lot of nuclear, They.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: Have some you know sunshine thing and you know, solar
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: and and some wind. Predominantly they have nuclear, coal and
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: natural gas. And then coal dominates natural gas second in
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: nuclear third. So that's kind of the story of this
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: attack of Israel destroying what is domestic natural gas, the
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Ranians fiving at Kata, destroying liquor natural gas that is
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: meant for export, but that is not being exported right
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: now anyway because of the straits.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Of Homones Homones being closed. Okay.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: In addition, the Uranians fired at the saudiast at the UOE,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: they hit a number of other petro chemical facilities in
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: the Gulf.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: The Gulf States are pretty ticked off.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: Initially, the expression of being ticked off was primarily targeted
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: at the at the Uranians. But what you're seeing is,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: at least from the Katari's perspective, they have shifted together
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: with the Turks to blaming Israel.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Which is I guess to be expected, right, so.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: You know we so and then today today the Iranians
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: even try to hit the Israeli refinery which is in Haifa.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: What they did hit was they did hit the refinery.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: One of their missiles got through and they hit the refined.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: They didn't hit anything with oil in it that burns
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: or the actual processing facility which all those pipes are empty.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Israel empties that out.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Completely before launching a war, because they know to be
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: a major target, so there's nothing there to really blow
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: up and burn and all of that.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: What they did hit is an.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: Electric facility associated with the refinery, so the area around
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the refinery has lost electricity.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And if you see pictures online with smoke.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Coming out of it, that is probably what it is.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: It's it's the electric facility. It'll be fixed. There's no
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: significant damage associated with with what they have donegniv me
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: damage with the attack on the facility in Haifa.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Let's see what else do I want to say about this?
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: He has.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Trump yesterday said after the Katari natural gas facility was hit,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: Trump basically said to the Ranians, if you continue to
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: hit petro chemical plants around the Gulf, we will destroy
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: your natural gas fields.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: We will eliminate them. He also said that.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: The Israeli Israeli attack on the natural gas facility was
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: not coordinated with the United States. The United States knew
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: nothing about it, which is a blatant lie. Both US
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: sources and Israeli sources are confirmed that the US was
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: in on it from the beginning and gave a four thumbs.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Up about it.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: So toom said, we will flatten your natural gas facilities
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: if you do this. Unlikely the Trump will actually follow
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: through on that threat. It's just typical Trump bumbast without
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: really any.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Any really intent.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: You know, somebody will sit him down and say you
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: really want to do that, and and and come to
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: the conclusion of no, so unlikely unlikely to actually happen.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: So you know, all of this and.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: The continued blockage of the Straits of Homoes. I remember
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: Iranian oil is still coming out of the Straits of
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: Homos oil and uh and and maybe even natural gas
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: of some places maybe that are already been loaded onto ships
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: going to China, Turkey, and I think India is still
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: coming out of the Homost Straits. Everything else to stop.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: So about twenty five percent of the regular stream of
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: oil out of the Gulf is actually going out.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: In addition, you have.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Yeh again remember the Saudiast diverting all to the west.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: So some of those some of those some of the
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: oil will be compensated through through that. My guess is
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: that in the days and weeks to come, US production
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: is being ramped up.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Given higher prices, there's a huge incentive to do that.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: Takes time to ramp it up, but it is I'm sure,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: being ramped up one or another. We only have so
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: much LNG capacity, that is, we cannot we can only
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: convert so much gas into liquefied foam, so you can't
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: ramp up that very quick. You have to build new terminals,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: build facilities. So it's hard to say what is going
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: to happen there, but oil mo oil will be pumped
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: out of the ground without any question at these prices,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: and at least in the place is not affected by
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: what's happening in the Mid East. So that is kind
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: of where we stand in terms of well, not completely
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: so the homost streets.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Let's finish a discussion of Homo Straits.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: So, as we know, the United States has asked for
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: coalition to form to escort ships out of the Homo Straits.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Initially the Europeans said no, no, no, this is your war.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: We're not coming, and a lot of other countries said
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: the same. This morning there was a joint communication issued
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: by the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: Remember the Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi is right now meeting
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: with Trump as we speak. So UK, France Germany, Italy,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: and the Netherlands, as well as Japan, have all expressed
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure say passage
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: through the Straits of Homos. So I expect that ultimately
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: all of these countries will have ships, you know, particularly
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: the UK, France and in Japan that have you know,
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: substantive davies. I don't know about Germany and Italy and
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: the Netherlands, but they will. Maybe the others will have
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: symbolic something. I do expect the chips we escorted out
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: of the Persian Gulf in the weeks to come. It's
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: going to take a while. In the meantime, the United
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: States continues to bomb the shore.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: As I've told you in the past, it was essential.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: They continue to bomb the locations in which they could
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: be holding short to see missiles. They're also using helicopters
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: for the first time and using what's that the name
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: of that ship, that one airplane, the Warhog. Let me
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: just find this, it's the Yeah, they're using eight ten Warhogs.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: They're using Apache helicopters along the Straits of Homos to
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: taking out anything that looks like a Iranian boats, looks
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: like somebody who could lay a mine looks like a
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: ship that might be involved in attempting to block the
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Homost straits. So they are so confident in the control
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: of the sky, so confident they've taken out their defense systems. Now,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: a ten warhog. I don't know if you've ever seen
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: this plane. It's it's a plane that flies relatively low
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: and has these believably powerful guns on the side and
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: ad distant to missiles that uh it to land missiles, and.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: It is just this this.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: Overwhelming you know, firepower that that is you know, usually
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: in support of ground troops as they're advancing, and it
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: just eviscerates the enemy, the ground troops of the enemy.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: You can only deploy warhogs and helicopters.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Where you're not too afraid of.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Defense systems because they fly very low, so the defense
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: systems are easy, they're easy to see them.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Radars detect them relatively easily.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: And then they're easy to shoot down because their defense
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: systems because they're so.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Low, right, uh and and and and and these are
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: not stealth.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: So the fact that they're flying apaches and the fact
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: that they're flying warhogs suggests that yes, there's a complete
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: dominance in the air, and then I'll worried. Now I'm
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: not saying a helicopter won't be shut down. I mean
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: they might hear they happen. Right, we are at war,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: after all. We've gotten kind of used to a war
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: with no casualties, which is kind of bizarre, but it
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: is a war. And you know, what we're seeing is
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: these helicopters, warthogs going after drone systems, They're going after
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: the boats, They're going after anything that looks like it
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: is a threat to the straits themselves, so that if
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: they start escorting ships out, they will feel relatively confident
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: that they've taken out all the threats to the navy
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: ships escorting the tankers out of the streets. So, you know,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: it's just amazing to me if you've seen how helicopters fight,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: and the footprint of a helicopter, how big they are
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: in the sky, and how easy it is to shoot down.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: It's an expression of the confidence that they have in
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: controlling the skies that they're using these systems. You know,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: this is a way to take out trucks, take out
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: a small boats, take out anything, you know, without using
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: big you know, missiles, expensive missiles that come from f
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: thirty fives or sixteen's or things like that. So we've
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: got a coalition that's assembling. The will assemble hasn't quite
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: the details have not been worked out. Japan is espressing
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: full support for Trump, full support for you on. I mean,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: the Prime Minister of Japan. Of course, she knows how
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: to deal with Trump. Everybody in the world.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Now knows how to deal with Trump.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Effusive complements to Trump. But generally Japan is ready to
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: ready to support the United States in the Gulf of Formos.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: That is I think great news. Japan have probably the
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: third best navy in the world after the United States
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: and China, and the Europeans are pretty weak.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: These days navy wise.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Both the UK and France, who used to have good
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: big navies, fairly small and weak. But there so there
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: will be a coalition, I think to bring oil out
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: of the Gulf of the Straits of Homos, out of
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: the Persian Gulf.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: In the meantime, as we say, the Iranians are just we're.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: Going to destroy everybody. We're gonna you know, we're going
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: to take revenge. We're gonna I mean, it's all, you know,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: yapping without any ability to actually execute on it, actual
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: execute it. You know, this is some general Kine said
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: that they're using a tens the warhog to actively hunt
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: and kill the Islamic Revolutionary God cause fast attack boats
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: and Strait of Homos. So this is not just patrolling,
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: This is not posturing for the tourreents. This is using
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: the massive firepower these planes have to basically, you know,
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: take it out. Now, the United States also has the
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: option of taking taking the islands. We've talked about Cobog Island,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: which as we said, handles n eighty percent of all
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: Iran's oil exports, which the United States could seize and
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: hold it hostage and basically basically force the Iranian's hand
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: into opening the straits. But there are the two other
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: islands that are in the Straits themselves that are incredibly strategic.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: Kesshum Island, I think it's called sits at the mouth
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: of the Homo Straits. It has tunnels packed with fast
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: attack boats and missiles. My guess is the helicopters and
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: the warhogs are going after those tunnels right now, and
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: you can control that island and prevent them launching attacks
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: from there, then there's an island called Homore's Island, which
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: hosts a small naval craft again that could harass shipping. Again,
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: I'm sure they're trying to destroy as much as they
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: can from the air, but they could basically take the island,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: give them strategic positioning over covering you know, the strait,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: and and and facilitating the opening up of the straits.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: So again there was a marine expedition unit twenty five
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: hundred soldiers with s supports and and UH support from
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: the from the from the sea is steaming, streaming, steaming
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: whatever not steaming, there would be steamboats. They are sailing
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: that sailboats sailing towards the Persian Gulf as we speak,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: probably be there sometime in the middle of next week.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: So if you control the islands, you control the probably
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: you control the Homo Straits, and you can control the
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: supply of oil out all right, I want to talk
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: for a minute about oil prices and about everything you're
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: hearing about oil prices, which I think can be fairly
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: confusing the discussions about oil prices, because they are at
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: least two widely used oil prices, and there's a difference
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: between them and different people are citing different oil prices,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: and I've been citing one and maybe the users been
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: citing another, and maybe that's confusing. So let's zoom in
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: into what these oil prices represent, where they are and
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: where they're expected to head.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: So the kind of global oil.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Benchmark which you hear a lot of the news is
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: called Brent crude. It's kind of the global benchmark that
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: all other oil because oil is price differently based on
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: its sweetens, how heavy it is, how light it is.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: But this is the benchmark. This is bent crude.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: It's basically oil from the North Sea, UK and Norway.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Production particularly on the UK side of the North Sea,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: is being down over the last decade, but it's still
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: used as a benchmark. It is used to price right.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: Oil is used to price about seventy percent of global
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: oil trade, particularly in Europe Asia, and oil that's seaborne
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: that is traveled by sea.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: So for example, the.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: The Brent Brent oil right now was earlier today was
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: at five thirty am. This was at one hundred and
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: eleven US dollars a barrow. I guess one hundred and
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: eleven US dollars a barrow, And people were freaking out
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: because it was going like this. This is because of
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: the disruptions, because what they views as escalation in the war.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: So it's it's it peaked right at five thirty am
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: today at one hundred and eleven, at one hundred and
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: eleven dollars a bett since then, since five thirty am
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: right now it's two thirty pm. I think this is
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: all Eastern time, yes, Eastern data time, you know. Right
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: now it is at one hundred and three though, so
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: it's already dropped eight dollars. So traders were really really
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: worried at five thirty am this morning, and since then
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: they were a lot less worried. And my guess is
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: that the announcement from the UK, Fans, Netherlands, Italy, Germany
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: and Japan has given confidence though market that the Straits
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: of almost could be opened, and not to panic. By
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: the way, this price went up to way over one
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: twenty when the war in Russia broke out, So we're
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: still not even gotten to that level, right if I look,
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: if I look at prices over the last over the
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: last month, over the last few weeks, and still war
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: broke out, Yeah, it's it's just over one hundred and
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: once in a while. It hits these peaks like one
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: hundred and eleven, but it doesn't stay there for very long, right,
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: because you know, they panic as they as they worried,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: and prices go way up.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Right, So right now prices one hundred and three.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Earlier, like yesterday, and and you know earlier in the
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: last few days it's even been under one hundred, which
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: is not bad at.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: All, Right, but generally, you know, it.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Is priced higher than the second benchmark, which I've used
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: a lot because I get that on my Yahoo Finance screen.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: It's the old price that it gives me for whatever reason,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: I have that on my screen. But anyway, that is
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: at ninety.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Five dollars ninety six dollars ninety.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: Five point something, and that is called West Texas Intermediate.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: That is the West Texas Intermediate price. It's the US
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: domestic crude price. It's priced in Cushing, Oklahoma, and it's
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: the benchmark for US oil, and it's the benchmark.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: For the use by US refineries of US oil.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: Now, this isn't how much every battle of oil gets
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: priced at. Right, Remember, it depends on the type of
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: all These are the benchmarks you might you might price
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: it at above West Texas Intermediate below West Texas Intermediate
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: above Brent, below Brent, you know, depending on the quantity,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: depending on the quality, depending.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: On all of those things. Right, these are the benchmarks.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: And again West Texas oil is typically cheaper than Brent oil.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Uh, it's it's easier to get at, it's easier to
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: deliver and transport. And right now it is.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Less susceptible to geopolitical risk because it's right here. But
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: it's gone up a lot because old market is global
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: people people are buying and selling oil in the market,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: I mean the US. A lot of the US refineries,
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: for example, use oil that is not from the United States.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: They use heavy oil.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: We've talked about this in the previous show, and West
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: Texas Intermediate is not so. The America exports oil and
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: imports oil at the same time. It exports one type
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: of oil, imports another type of oil we import from Canada.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: The heavier oil we import now from Venezuela. A big
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: chunk is coming from Venezuela. So all all prices, unless
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: we put walls and stop inputting and exporting, all prices
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: are global prices.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: Again, typically West Texas all trades at about ten to
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: fifteen dollars below Brent, and right now the spread is
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: if Brent is at ninety six and West and if
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: no West Texas ninety six, Brent is a one o three,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: it's it's a it's trading at a seven.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Dollars discount, right, seven dollars discount.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: And then finally there's an opic basket the AVERD price
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: from OPIQ Country Study, Arabia, Ronie, Rock and so on.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: Middle East.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: This is primarily Middle East and oil oil production, and
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: it's right now roughly about one hundred one hundred and two,
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: so it sits somewhere in between the two prices, somewhere
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: between West Texas. The patterns the way they behave the
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: graphs all.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Look very similar.
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: So if we look at West Texas oil, it also
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: you know, peaked at five something this morning and ninety
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: eight point three went down.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: It did peak again at.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: Over ninety nine at ten am and then has gone
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: tumbling down since then. I think that post ten Am
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: decline is a consequence against that of that announcement that
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Europeans are going to join and Japan are going to
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: join the coalition to try to get oil out of
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: the ground.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: It's also the case that Iran.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: You know, Iran has only done limited damage so far
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: to the oil production.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: LNG is a different thing.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: It's done real damage to Katari LNG, but it's seventeen percent.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Qatar has twenty percent of the world market. Seventeen percent
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: of twenty percent. That could probably be made up by other.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Players out there, right. I mean, think about it.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: Natural gas is something that a lot of countries have,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: and a lot of countries produced right now. And I
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: mean Israel producers produces a natural gas right from the Mediterranean.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: There are a lot of countries now right now that
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: are producing it, so it'll be made up somewhere else
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: that that gap. I do believe that if the war ended,
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: we were pretty quickly within weeks return to normal levels
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: of trade in prices and in gas and in oil,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: and prices would really tumble. They'd go back to the
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: sixties for oil. Let's see, what did I want to
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: add to that? Yeah, I mean gas prices in the
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: United States have gone up. Gasoline because it's priced off
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: of oil, right, they were fine to be paid full
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: of oil higher price. It then passes on the cost
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: in selling that gasoline out the other side, gas prices
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: in the United States, what up four four bucks of
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: you know a gallon in some places five California. California
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: is always insane, whereas Trump was trying to get it
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: down to two. Gas prices in Europe have gone up
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: thirty five percent just in the last twenty four hours.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: So big spike in gasoline prices. I don't think that
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: will hold, given what I'm seeing in oil prices.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: The spike world hold, that'll come back down, right, so.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: You know, we'll see electricity prices will go up because
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: the natural gas prices are going up. So you're definitely
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: going to get significant shocks to.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: The global economy. Asia in particular is going to be hit.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: Asia relies to a log extent on liquefied natural gas
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: inputs from Kata. They rely on oil from Saudi Arabia
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: and Iran and Iraq and Kuwait and UOE. And while
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: that is not shut down completely, as I said, about
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: twenty five percent.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Is flowing out, and maybe another twenty.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Five percent or something close to that will come once
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: the saudist fully operational. In terms of moving the oil west,
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: it's still fifty percent less than what usually comes out,
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: and everything's at higher prices.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: So the.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: All shocks are clearly being felt around around Asia, in Europe.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: And in the United States. I mean, we have to
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: pay more for gasoline.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: You pay more for everything that is ultimately produced by
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: with gas.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Which is pretty much everything.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: All right, let's see what else do I want to
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: say about gasoline prices? Any questions about gasoline prices?
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Uh No, that's not it. Uh, that's it. Uh all right, Yeah,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: I mean H. D.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Willow says the Ranian drone threat needs to be dealt with.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Last night at Tech demonstrated allies are not able to
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: stop it with this is a major issue. Yeah, I mean,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: they need to buy the laser technology for Israel. There's
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: really laser technology probably could probably solve this problem. Also,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: they could buy the Ukrainian solution. The Ukrainians are very
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: good at stopping drones. They have a technology. Supposedly they're
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: working with the UE and Saudi Ahibia to bring it
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: in there. Katsav is never gonna buy anything from Israel,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: and I'm not sure they're involved in the talks with
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: the Ukrainians. But technology does exist to get to down drones,
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: and the technology will get better over time. Again, Israel
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: is using a laser technology. It also uses the iron dome,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: and it is very good downing the drones. Again, not
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: one hundred percent rate. You're never going to get one
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: hundred percent.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: It's a wha.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: You're going to take damage. You're going to take damage.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: And I think that the United States and Israel disrupting
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: the ability of the Uranians to launch drones, but not
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: fast enough.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: And there's reason to believe that Russia.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: You know, Russia is getting drones from Yuan, but there's
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: reason to believe that Russia is now supplying drones to
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: Ian And there are truckloads of stuff coming in for Tajikistan,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: which has a border.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: With Iran in the east of Yuan.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: There are trucks coming in supposed the humanitarian aid, but
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: everybody knows that it's most likely weapons systems, including drones.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: It's possible that the Iranians are built a drone manufacturing
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: plant into Zakistan and they're bringing drones in from there.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Israel yesterday it took a step pretty amazing to stop
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: the Ranians from getting drones from Russia. And they did
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: that by basically attacking Iran's ports on the Caspian Sea.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: If you think about. You know, I don't know how
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: how much geography you guys know. But in the north
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: of Iran there is a sea called the Caspian Sea,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: which Iran is at the southern border of it, and
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: at the northern border of it, you have Russia on
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: the on the western border you have Azerbaijan, and you
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: have Azerbaijan and Russia, and then on the eastern border
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: you have Kazakhstan. But Iwan was using boats to go
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: back and forth to Russia, both to deliver goods to
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: Russia to help them out in their war effort, and
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Russia was sending materials to Iran by boat through the
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: Caspian Sea.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: Well Israel yesterday. Remember this is very very very very
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: far away. So this is.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: Pretty amazing, right, pretty amazing. Is basically destroyed the Iranian
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Navy's northern fleet, that is on.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: The Caspian Sea.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Aircraft carried out airstrikes both per side, that is, boats
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: that were docked and naval vessels that are under way
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: in the Caspian Sea. They also destroyed up building and
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: repair facilities and commanding control centers in what's called Banda
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: and Zali, which is in northern Yuan on the sea.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: And uh, you know when they said they were going
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: to take out the Iranian navy, it wasn't just in
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: the golf and in the uh.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: In the Indian Ocean. This was everyway. And uh you
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: know this included a uh an Iranian figate.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: It was taken out videos being published of the attacks
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: against against them.
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: All right, Okay, we've covered that. We have covered that,
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: we have covered that. I'm just going through this.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, one of the things you brought up, drones
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: one of the things that everybody I think realizes now
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: and maybe finally the Trump administration.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Will realize this, and and and and much of the
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: rest of the world right now.
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Ukraine is the world champion in designing, launching, and intercepting drones.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: They make probably the best in terms of most practical
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: drones in the world. They know how to launch them
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: in all kinds of circumstances, and they're brilliant and intercepting them.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: Remember that attack where the drones were in a truck
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: deep inside Russia and they came out and they had.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: The attacked Russian facilities.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: But every single day they are facing swarms of drones
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: from Russia and they're handling it, and they are basically
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: holding back a significantly larger, better equipped or used to
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: be better equipped, but a significant larger Russian army with
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Ukrainian built drones. And originally when Ukraine started building drones,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: most of the components in the drones were Chinese. Well,
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: they have got to the point where they now are
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: building their own drones with no Chinese tech.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could do I should do a whole
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: show just on Ukraine.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: I actually met the former the former Minister of the
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Economy and the current president of the School of Economics
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: in Ukraine in Kiev. I met him recently. Fascinating guy. Uh. Anyway,
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: they have the most innovative, most creative. They have competing companies.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: The drones make it to the battlefield immediately. They're constantly
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: you know, reprogramming, innovating, changing the software, changing the hardware
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: depending on battlefield conditions. There's no country in the world
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: today that is as good at drones as you know,
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: again battlefield type drones once that can actually work. Not
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: they don't have the most sophisticated tech that Americans in
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Israelis have, but in terms of in terms of just
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: that work. Uh, and.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Maybe maybe maybe.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a wish, my wish this American
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: administration could be friendlier to the Ukrainians. And you know
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: the consequence of that could be that they share some
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: of that technology with the United States. Right, Yeah, I
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: mean I'm looking at a Financial Times article today.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: That is just again just pretty.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: Uh panicky about oil, panicky about oline.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: As we said Brent oil. We talked about the prices.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: So they're giving here Oman if you want to buy
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: all from Aman, you have to pay over one hundred
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: and fifty dollars a bottle. If you want to buy
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: all from Dubai, you have to pay over one hundred
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: and forty dollars a bowl, Which makes sense give given
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: the difficulty of getting oil out of there, right, And
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: so again, all prices, lots of different prices out there,
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: depending on the specifics of where it comes from. And
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: we are going to see the global market having to adapt,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: and you know markets are very good at adaptation.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: You will see demand shifting.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Local prices of oil will go up, gasoline prices go up.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: What happens people drive less. This will happen all over
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: the world. People will figure out alternative sources. Maybe in
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: some places around the world, like China, they'll shift to.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: More coal and less natural gas.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: In other places, you know, they might shift, they might
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: shift the mixture in other directions. So look, there is
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: going to be disruption, but nobody seems to think that
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: the current changes get maybe the financial times, that the
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: current issues are such that that you know you're going
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: to get a global recession. Yet if it continues long enough,
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: they'll probably be a recession.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: But it doesn't seem that bad yet.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: Oh a few other things, or continues to kill senior
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: leaders within the within the Islamic Revolutionary God, you don't
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: hear about the one level down as much. They just
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: do not. They don't make a big deal out of it.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: But you know, the channels I follow keep repporting new
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: people that are being killed, like the deputy head of
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: intelligence was killed overnight. Yan keeps appointing replacements like Love
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: and Johnny Is.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: The publishment was just being appointed.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: This guy, Hussein de Gan the guns being around for
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: a long time. I mean he is a he goes
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: back to the revel. He was involved in taking of
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: the U this season of the US Embassy in nineteen
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: seventy nine, he was involved with Isabela in Lebanon and
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Syria nineteen eighty three, when the you know, the US
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: barracks were killed, killing two.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Hundred and forty one US service personnel. He's being in.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Command of the igc's Air Force, deputy cheap of the
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: IFC Joint Staff, head of the IRGC's carpetive Foundation. He
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: was fired though at some point by how many and
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: demoted significantly, and now he's being brought back to basically
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: run the country. So low and Johnny, Johnny was basically
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: running the country because the supreme leader Hamoni's son. Nobody's
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: seen him, Nobody knows he might be in a coma,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: he's injured, nobody knows what's going on with him. He's
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: certainly not on the day to day running of what's
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: going on. This guy's basically stepped in to take love
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: and Johnny was running things Lomon. Johnny was killed by
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: these rael these two days ago. This guy stepping into
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: a placed on Johnny. Uh and uh, you know, you
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: can you know, maybe if he turns out to be significant,
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: if he survives long enough, then I'll give you more
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: of a profile on him and we'll look more deeply
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: into him. Uh.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Let's see. Uh yeah, I mean more and more reports
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: are coming out that.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: There is real, real issues, and real conflicts and and
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: and real challenges at the leadership level. Then you want,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I mean again, the entire leadership, basically, the entire leadership
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: has been decapitated. They're gone, and these are substitutes. These
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: are people who weren't expecting to be in these positions
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: affilling in command and control facilities have been destroyed. I mean,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: obviously he's still functioning, they're still finding me rockets. But
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: at some point, there's a good chance that all of this,
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: you know, falls down. Now, Israeli news channel Cohn is
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: reporting that the US and the Saudist and maybe the
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: Eye talking about boots on the ground.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: As part of the security of the Straits.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: And Foremos, where Arab forces will provide troops as well
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: as the US side by side with the US, with
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: Israel providing intelligence and maybe help with air cover. That
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: would be amazing if that happened, If you actually got
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: some of these Arab countries participating on the American side,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: that would be a game changer. All right, Let's see, yeah,
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, all Ilon can do at this point in
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: terms of defend itself. Is shoot down, is shoot at
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: petro chemical plants, create all disruptions in the oil markets,
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: and hope for the best. Right, there's nothing else that
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: it can do. It can't attack, It can't down US
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: planes in any significant way. It can't down these any
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: planesn't hasn't even hood an Israeli plane yet. It can
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: down some drones. It can't take out any of the
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: American ships. It can't do anything. It can't really do anything.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: So all it can do is fire at the you know,
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: the petrochemical facilities. Oh and a few other things relating
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: relating to oil. Remember when Trump the Trump eliminated the sanctions.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Or temporarily eliminated the sanction on.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: Russian oil in order to add it to the supply
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: of oil available on a global scale, hoping that that
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: would lower all prices of oil. Well, second day, bestn't
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: is a floating the idea of eliminating the sanctions an
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Iranian oil that is ready is in the sea, in
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: the ocean, so that they can sell it anywhere, so
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: it gets added as well and reduces prices.
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: That doesn't strike me as really working, But but you know, I.
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: Don't know, maybe maybe maybe maybe there's something amissing, but
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: it doesn't strike me as woking. I mean that all
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: has to be taken into account already. So the idea
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: is to in order to hold back all prices, you know,
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: the the Trump administration would again lift sanctions on the
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: oil that's already.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Being in play. What else do I want to say?
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, uh, cut Out this morning definitely blamed
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Israel for its problems, which is pretty amazing.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, Cutter is.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: Host the largest American military base, air force in in
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: in the Middle East.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: It's uh, it's uh.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: It hosts sentcom forward head pos it's the Nuva operation
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: of the entire operation against iran Is in Kota, and
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: they're getting hit as a consequence. But it's easier for
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: them to blame Israel for getting hit. They certainly don't
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: want to blame the Americans. And you know, they have
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: been very, very friendly to the Iranians for a very
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: long time. They supposedly said they were going to kick
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: out Kramas from Kotta.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen them actually do that.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: They kicked out some Uranian diplomats, but I don't know
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: how significant that is. They are in this Middle They
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: don't know why position themselves. One thing they do know
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: is that they don't like the Israelis. Right, Let's see. Yeah,
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: as I said, Prime Minister Takayachi is with President Trump,
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: and you know, I think she's going to axcpress support
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: for what she has, express support for it, use is
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: doing and and again will help.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: With holmost streets. Okay, finally we got to this issue.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: The Pentagon has asked Congress to approve a budget of
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: two hundred billion dollars to fund this wolf. Now, two
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars. Two hundred billion dollars is much more
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: than the war so far has cost, but a lot
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: of this is money that will be spent during the
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: one after the war to plenty supplies of the things
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: that we are discovering. In the United States, we don't
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: have enough of missiles, defensive missiles fads, patriots, but also
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: offensive missiles, the kind of missiles that the airplanes used
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: to bomb, kind of the bombs that the airplanes use
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: to attack facilities. Now we have an endless amount of
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: what's called guide bombs, dumb bombs, the bombs that are
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: not you know, guided guided. I guess the most advanced
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: guided bombs. The guide bombs are what Israel and the
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: United States are using right now because they have almost
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: an endless supply of them. It's really really smart bombs
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: that are inter supply and they're going to have to
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: They're going to have to replenish. But mainly the plenishing
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: has to do with the defensive weapons, the air defense systems.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: And it's really quite shocking if you look at kind
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: of how low supplies were going into this wall, how
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: low supplies will become over the last couple of decades,
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: how slow the defense industry is in producing these bombs,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: how little money the Defense Department has spent in actually.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Keeping an inventory. It really is given the size of.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: The defense budget at a trillion dollars, you'd think that
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: a lot of that budget would be to make sure
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: we had the supplies to be able to engage in
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: a wall. I mean, if China really did want to
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: invade Taiwan, I don't think they do, but if they did,
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: now's the time to do it. The United States has
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: very little supplies of certain crucial weapons systems and that
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: being depleted on the battlefield, and it's defence industry is
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: not being funded in a way that can increase production.
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: This is what the two hundred billion is supposed to do.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: It's stunning to me. Where's the rest of the trillion
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: dollars going.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: If not for this? So I don't know why you
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: need an extra two hundred billion.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: But this is really a kind of a wake up
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: call to the United States.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: The US runs a.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: Runs a massive budget deficie it it just hit thirty
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: nine trillion of debt. That is not taking into account
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: the unfunded liability.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: This is just the funded debt.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: Thirty nine trillion, which is which is just stunning right now,
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: they want two hundred billion more, which I can understand
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: and I would vote for. But the money, where's not
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: only going to come from? Where is the money going
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: to come from?
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: You know?
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: Is is hard to you know, how to figure out.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, the United States today spends about, you know,
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: under four percent of GDP on defense. It spent in
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: twenty ten, it spent four point five in twenty twenty five.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: It's a three percent.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: Actually during the career war it was at eleven point
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: four percent. Now, partially the government was much smaller, did
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: a lot fewer things, and the defense spending was a
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: much bigger chunk of that today welface of security, Medicare,
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: all these other things take up a big chunk of
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: the budget. Vietnam it was eight point six percent peak
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: of the in the eighties. It was five point nine
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: percent during the Reagan build up, and then it bought
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: them down in nineteen ninety nine to two point eight percent,
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: and then went up because of nine to eleven to
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: four point five in twenty ten, and since then has
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: come down to three percent. I mean, the US should
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: probably spend five percent of GDP or or four percent
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: of GDP on defense.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: And then pretty much nothing else.
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: We should probably not be spending much more than right,
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, we spend the federal govern.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Spends twenty two percent of GDP, so you know, everything.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Else is more than what is it, that's three So
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: that's more than it's more than seven times more that
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: we spend on defense.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: But defense.
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: Is what we have a federal government fall, it's the
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: main role of the federal government. Is this.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: Our government has going so.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Much, it spends so much money on entitlements, primarily by
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: the way middle class entitlements, Medicare and social security, that
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: we don't have now enough money to build patriot missiles
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: to defend ourselves from ballistic missiles being shot at us.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: All right, let's see, all right, that's what I have
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: to say mostly about the war energy crisis.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: Again, I'll say I think bait.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: Mostly things are going well in spite of what you're reading.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: I know there's a huge.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: Amount of doom and gloom out there, but things are
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: going well. The energy issue is the main problem. Straights,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: it's almost are the main problem. I still think it's
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: a massive travesty, unbelievable that the Trump administration and anticipate
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: this and didn't put into place a solution in the
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: first few days. But they seem to take a week
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: to ten days just to realize it's going to be
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: an issue and then start planning for it.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: But better late than ever, And it seems like solutions
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: will be happening in the next week to ten days.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: But it should.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: This should have started on day one and we should
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: be with the solution now already in place. So again,
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: this is the cost of having Trump be the command.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Of in chief.
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: But it's also possible that nobody else but Trump would
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: have gone done this. You know, I think Nikki Hayley
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: would have done it and done it better, and done
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: it with allies and done it.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: With the plan is wrong you that Yuan would put
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: punch back.
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know where they came up with this idea
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: that you won wouldn't punch back.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: I mean again, they.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Underestimate the fanaticism, the religiosity and fanaticism of this regime.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: The fact that this regime is willing to die. Uh.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: The leaders are willing to die. This is hot for them,
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: This is seventy chief versions for them, this is in
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: the Great Cause of Allah. These are not thugs like Venezuela.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: So either way, it's a massive, massive, massive fail on
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: the part of the the part of the Trumpet administration
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: not to anticipate this.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: One of the phenomenas that are happening right now is
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: that gold prices are going down.
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: We talked about this a little bit yesterday.
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: Or the other day that yeah, I mean West Texas
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: oil prices are continue to go down there now at
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: ninety four they were ninety six earlier when we talked.
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: Within the last few minutes, they've gone in ninety six
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: to eighty four, and that's lower than they were twenty
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: four hours ago. So in spite of the whole Katari
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: thing and everything. All markets once they settle, you.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Know, they're not panicking. They're coming down now.
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: They bottomed at around eighty two when it was that
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: about a day.
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: And a half ago.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens the rest of the day,
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: but so far they look like they're going to be
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: in the low nineties.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: This is this is not Brett. This is US US
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: or prices.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: We talked about gold and the fact that gold was
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: not behaving like you would expect. Gold is now at
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: forty six to thirty five. It was not just a
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: few days ago it was over five thousand. Here's a
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: headline from seeing NBC. This is CNBC, So this is
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: the financial network, and this is the kind of.
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: Headlines that.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: You don't make you go the financial reporters know anything
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: about what they're talking about.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Here's here's the here's the headline. Gold and silver sell
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: off accelerates. The cell off accelerates as inflation fears grip
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: global markets.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: And they say this without thinking about, Wait a minute,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: isn't gold and silver aren't the inflation hedges. Isn't the
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: whole point about gold and silver? And isn't the reason
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: they went up so much, we were told because of inflation.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: Now fears of inflation causing gold and so they go
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: down now they don't say cause, they're just saying a relationship.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: They're just showing a correlation. But it's suggestive.
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: Right, gold is down just today five percent, Silver's down
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: seven percent. Silver is at seventy two. Both incredibly volatile
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: over the last few days and certainly over the month.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: Remember that not that long ago silver was over one hundred, right,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: I mean there was a point when was this in January?
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: Late at the end of January, silver was on one hundred
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: and fourteen. As late as as end of February it
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: was eighty eighty seven. It's now seventy two. Gold is
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: at now. Silver you could say, if you expect the
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: global economy to slow down, industrial demand for silver will decline,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: sur prices should go down. But why gold Gold is
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: not primarily driven by demand by industry. It's primarily driven
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: by hedges against inflation and against the end of the world.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: I'd expect the possibility of the end of the world
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: to be higher right now than it was before for
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: the war started, and it gold is way lower and
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: and and my point is this, I really do believe
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: that gold and to some extent silver, but certainly gold,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: that the that the price is basically speculation. Now everything
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: is speculation, but it's speculation decoupled from real concerns about
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: inflation and about the end of the world, and about
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: the dollar and about all of these things. I don't
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: think gold actually reflects all that. I think this is this,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: there's a certain aspect of gold that is similar with
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: the meme stocks where people just get all excited and
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: they Russian they buy a bunch of it. Uh And
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: uh so I think that. Uh and I've said this before,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: so uh yeah, I mean gold, silver way down? Uh,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: I mean interesting. It's as Reutter's headline as gold extends
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: losing streak on expectations of tighter policy from the central bags.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: Central banks are tightening. Why are they tightening because they
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: feel inflation? I mean they but it's not really inflation, right,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: because remember that all prices going up is not inflationary.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: It raises some prices, but since the quantity of money
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: chasing those goods is the same, other prices have to
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: come down. So it's it's it might raise prices, but
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: it's not what you'd consider classical inflation.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Uh, And it's not even clear.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: Some measures of prices go up but not you know,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: it's not it's it's not universal, right. Central banks are not.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: I don't think central maka is buying as much gold
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: as people are claiming the value of the gold that
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: central banks has has gone on up. The percentage of
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: reserves has gone up, but that's just because they're run
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: up in gold prices. So if I hold x amount
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: of gold and I don't even buy any and it
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: goes from two thousand to five thousand, suddenly a bigger
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: chunk of my reserves in gold as a percentage. So
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much central bikes are really buying gold.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of stories floating out there about these things.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: I'm I mean, they have been buying some, but I
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: don't think that's a drive of the price.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: Central banks, you know, are not.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: Are not price movers, speculators, individuals.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: Price movers. They're the marginal investors. I think maybe one
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: day we'll look back at this episode and gold prices.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: And have a better.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: Explanation for what exactly happened. All right, Cuba.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: Yesterday we talked about Cuba and the the fact that
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: the regime there seems to be teetering and there's a
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: lot of American pressure and maybe even of Venezuela like
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: assault and all this stuff, and Cuban regimes seem to
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: be really compromising. Interestingly enough, today all the headlines are
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: suggesting the opposite, that is, the suggest thing that the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: Cuban leaders are actually standing up to Trump and that
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: they're holding a hardline, and they're not.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: They're not actually, you know, on the verge of giving up.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: And so you know, Cuba is supposedly there's Russian oil
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: heading its way. Remember one of the consequences of Trump
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: eliminating the sanctions on Russian oil is that Russia can
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: now provide Cuba with oil.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: So it looks like they are and there's.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: Oil heading Cuba's way, and Cuba is basically saying.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: We're not going to give into Trump.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: Nobody's going to take us over, the claiming that they
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: will resist to the end, that they're going to fight
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: the Americans.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: They will not give in.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: They're not looking for an exit route and I'm just
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: going to hand over Cuba to the Americans.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: So we will see, we will see who is right.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: But it does seem like over the last twenty four hours,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: the Quban government's kind of woken up and said, no, no, no.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: No, no, we're not going away. We're going to fight this.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: We're going to stand up to Trump, We're going to
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: stand up to the Americans. This is not just going
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: to be us folding, which is unfortunate. I was hoping
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: this would just go away. All right, Let's talk about
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: this bill that is at the Senate right now. Is
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: past the House, it's in front of the Senate. It's
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: called the Save America Act. Trump has basically said he
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: will not sign any bills until this has passed.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: And yet it needs sixty votes.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: In the Senate to pass, and Democrats are violently opposed
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: to it. The Senate yesterday voted fifty eight to get
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: a debate about this. This act, it's called the Safeguard
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: American Voter Eligibility Act.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: And this is all about.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: Voter idea and voter registration and about the federal government
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: having you know, being having access to voter lists at
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: the federal at the state level and basically but including
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: maybe potentially banning mail in ballots and and the federal
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: Govermany intervening significantly.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: In what has always been the responsibility.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: Of the states, and that is election all with the
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: idea that you know, there's massive amounts of elections are
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: being stolen left and right.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: Trump won.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: In twenty twenty more than that. In you know, Trump
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: claimed that in twenty twenty four he won California. I mean,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: the vote rigging is so bad that even one California,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: he probably won every state in the Union. There's probably
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: no state that voted against him if you count the
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: votes the way Trump would like you to count the votes.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: So anyway, this bill has a.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: Number of different provisions, So let's just go over this
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: quickly because this is now is going to be discussed
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: in a Senate for who knows. This is the biggest
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: political domestic.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: Issue right now.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: So undercount law, people registering to vote have to present
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: their driver's license.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: I'm meaning this from.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: A retangled dot com Retangled dot com, which is an
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: US source which gives pretty reliable.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: Descriptions of these things.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: So people registering to vote must present their driver's license
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: or at least four digits of this SOID security number
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: to verify their eligibility.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: So that's how you register the vote.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: If neither form is available, states can verify citizenships through.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: A federal database.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: For those registering to vote by mail in ballots, states
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: verify identity by comparing the signature on the ballot to
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: one on file.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Now you can see that this is pretty leaky, right.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: A lot of states issue driver's licenses to people who
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: are illegal. Theoretically they could register the vote based on
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: their driver's license, although once they compared to the.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: Federal database, it would find that they don't do it.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: Now, a number of states have audited their voter roles,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: including many red states but also some blue states have
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: audited their voter roles and have found very, very very
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: few illegal immigrants voting or registered to votes. I mean
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: illegal immigrants want a low profile. They don't want to
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: get on some database. They don't want to be discovered,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: they want to stay low. Generally, study after study after
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: study after study after study finds very little voter fraud happening,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: particularly at the level of nationwide elections like presidential elections
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: or congressional elections, and at the level that would sway
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: an election. Voter thought exists all the time, it's small
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: and insignificant, and as far as we know it's not
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: swayed an election, at least in modern times, so over
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: then you will do. The Save America Act would limit
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: mail or online voter registration, require documentary proof of citizenship,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: so you'd have to show a birth certificate or a
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: passport to register. So we'd all when we registered to vote,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: we'd have to being a birth certificate or a passport.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: The bill would also mandate government issued photo ID at
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: the polling places.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: To vote by mail, voters.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: Would need to attach a copy of their identification when
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: requesting a ballot and sending it back. Alternatively, people voting
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: by mail could submit the last four digits of this
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: security number along with an afford David stating that they
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: could not obtain a copy of a valid photo ID. Furthermore,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: the law would require states to submit their voter rolls
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: to the Department of Homeland Security for cross referencing with
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: citizen data. So what this bill does is it makes
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: it much harder to register to vote. There are a
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: lot of people in the US who do not have
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: a passport, many of them by the way Donald Trump voters.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: The people who vote consistently democratic.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: The college graduates typically have a passport, it's as it's
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: true that many people don't have an updated birth certificate. Now,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: why would you have to meet have an updated birth certificate? Well,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: for example, if you're a woman, you would need to
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: update the ber certificate with your new name if you changed.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: It when you got married.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: Some many married women do not have a birth certificate
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: with a current name on it and therefore would not qualified.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: So you know, this is this is it just makes
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: it harder.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: Now to me, it makes complete sense that you need
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: to show an ID at the polling place. This seems
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: like low hanging food and easy. But Republicans want more.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: They want these biger restrictions. Republicans say the bill is
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: necessary to maintain the integrity of the US elections, particularly
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: by preventing non citizens from voting. In recent weeks, some
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: GOP lawmakers have called on Center majority leader to force
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: a talking filibuster. Talking filibuster is that you can't vote
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: as long as the Democrats or those in our position
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: are talking. It's not an automatic sixty votes. They have
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: to keep talking now, But I have to keep talking.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: Is you know, is work and it's complicated and it's
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: hard to put together, and it's not clearly that Republicans
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: have the votes to force a talking philibuster. I think,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: by the way, all philibusters should be talking filibusters. If
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: you're going to demand sixty votes, you should have to
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: work at it. You should have to work at it.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: Democrats against this bill and pretty united. Doesn't look like
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: Republicans are going to get the seven votes that they
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: would need to get sixty.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: And it's not clearly all the Republicans will vote for this.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: You know, they might have a few defections as well,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: so they'll probably need at least nine Democrats to vote
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: for this. And there are no nine Democrats that are
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: going that are going, you know, to vote for this. Now,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: why is this such a big deal? I think this
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: is a way for Trump to argue that elections are
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: stolen in demand that they be fixed, and when when
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: they're not fixed, if this bill doesn't pass, it'll give
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: him an excuse to argue that the midterm elections are
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: illegal and to try to do something to overturn them.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think it'd be successful, but he could try
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: do something. Look, this is Trump's pet peeve, this is
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: his issue.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: I won the election in twenty twenty and.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: This is all about Trump.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: I don't think there's anybody who's a Republican who really
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: really cares about this that much. I mean, even Mike Lee,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: who is a big support of Trump, at some point says, again,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: we must ask why this bill?
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: Why now?
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: And the solution and the reason for that is Democrats
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: are schedule to win the House and maybe even win
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: the Senate, which would be a catastrophe for the Republicans
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: and for Trump. And maybe changing the rules of the game,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: maybe trying to ban mail in ballots, maybe doing something
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: like that would prevent a loss. Unlikely because I think
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of Republican voters would not do not have
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: the birth certificate and the passport. But who knows what
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: would happen, Who knows how it all shakes out in
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: the end. There is a compromise bill. There's a compromise
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: bill proposed by Fetamen.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: Come on.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: Compromise bill proposed by Fetament, which would basically just you
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: just be vote ID when you come and vote. So
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: you have to show an idea when you come to vot,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: have to show an idea when you come to vote.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's a I think it's a that's a
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: rational solution, It improves voting, it makes it more reliable.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: We don't have to go through the booth, certificate and
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: passport and all this stuff.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: Maybe they'll ultimately compromise around that, but Trump is.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: Going to be very angry and very very very committed
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: to this.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: It's going to be interesting how all this plays out.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: Remember we've already got a.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: Partial government shutdown.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: If you've been too an airport, you've probably noticed there's
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: not enough TSA agents out there. And the reason is
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: they're not getting paid because the Department of Homeland Security
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: budget is being held up as they negotiate a solution
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: to ICE. This is something that's also holding up the
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: Senate in terms of any other legislation.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's a good thing. I don't know. Legislation is
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: usually bad.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: And.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be interesting to see if they're puberigans are
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: willing to compromise. They might, but Trump might threaten to
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: veto it if they do. I think Republican senators would
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: love to get rid of this, would love to take
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: the fetamente compromise on themselves. You don't just have a
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: photo ID a photo ID when you vote, you know,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: look generally me, I'm awful.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: Having fewer people vote.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't think voting, you know, it's not
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: it's not the biggest issue the voters. You know, it's
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: a mess anyway, And there's no it's not clear from
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: these bills how it would affect the actual voting.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: So I don't think this is an important one way
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: or the other. But you know, it does make sense
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: to me.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: Instead of coming up to a voting booth and just saying, yeah,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: I'm here, my name is show an ID, show that
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: this is really who you are. I don't think this
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: is in order to create a photo idea, but I
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: think Vetamin's bill also makes it easier for people to
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: get a.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Photo ID you don't have a driver's license, let's say.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: But the whole thing is is just a trumped up
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: Trump thing, a trumped up Trump thing.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: But big in the news.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: You're going to talk about this for the next few days,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: maybe weeks, depending on how it goes. All Right, Finally,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: the FCC has put Apple on notice because Apple News.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: Apple News is an app that you can get to
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: a website. You can go to Apple News like Google News.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: It's a curator of news stories they claim Apple uses bias.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: What a shock, and supposedly being biased is illegal because
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: being biased is actually a deceptive practice. You didn't know that,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: did you. It's a deceptive practice. I don't think it's
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: the deceptive at all. I assume all of them are
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: biased in a I guess in a In a report
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: that was published by the Media Research Center, who were
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: probably pretty biased themselves, they found that of the six
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: hundred and twenty two six hundred and twenty top stories
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: on Apple News displayed in January, four hundred and forty
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: were from left leaning outlets, and precisely zero were from
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: right leaning outlets, includingly widely read sources like Fox News
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: the New York Post. I guess this was updated and
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: they found more recently the two percent of the stories
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: came from right leaning publication. So now the government is
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: going to get involved. So the government is going to
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: tell us Apple News is biased. Therefore we need to
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: find them, we need to shut them down, we need
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: to silence them. I mean, everybody knows that Apple News,
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: given given them, most of the news is biased. I mean,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: imagine how many stories they have to run from Fox
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: of the New York Post to match all the left
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: doing publications that are typically on there. So we now
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: have the FCC trying to regulate what news is presented
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: to us on apps that we voluntarily choose to use.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: Bye by first Amendment is right? So yeah, all right
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: on that shoe. You know, that is the news for
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: this Thursday, March nineteenth, and we will go to your questions.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: We are kind of dragging today. What's going on, guys?
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: Kind of slow? Oh, Catherine's trying to trying to make
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: a dent in that. Thank you Catherine for the sticker.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean we're way off, like eighty bucks
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: short of our first hour goal and we're already halfway
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: through our second hour.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: So I don't know where some of my whales up.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: But you know, some of you need to show up,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: and we need we need some fifties and hundreds and
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: to get to get ourselves on track again.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: Not a lot of questions. Remember, questions are great because.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: It's you get to ask me, I get I'll talk
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: about what you want me to talk about. You get
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: to shape the show. A sticker is a great because
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: you don't have to ask a question, and yet you
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: can trade with me and and value for value. You
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: get value from the show you're listening. One hundred and
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: fifty people are listening, and sixty people trade with me
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: and by providing some value in return. So please think
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: about doing a sticker or asking a super chat question. Katherine,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: thank you for the sticker. Let's see who's done a
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: sticker as well. We've got William thank you, and the
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: Thumb and Nature Observer and Silvanos and Jonathan Honing, Seep
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: Milk and thank you and now John, thank you guys
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: for the stickers. I appreciate it.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: And we're gonna jump into the questions in a minute.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: Let me just mention that Alex Epstein is.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: You know, if you read a substack, you will learn
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: so much about what is going on in the right now,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: right now in the world of energy, of power, what's
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: going on in Washington, d C. The power struggles and uh,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: you know the cost that we're all paying. By the way,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: I didn't mention this, I meant to mention it. You
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: know that the UK Great Britain's sitting on massive fracking
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: of natural gas, the reserves that they could access if
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: they used tracking, and then a decade or two ago,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: there's a massive debate in the UK about fracking, and
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: all companies were willing to invest in fracking, and the
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: United Kate Kingdom could have provided all the natural gas
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: and as a consequence, all day literricity really really cheaply
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: from their own gas and not be reliant on world markets.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: And of course the consequence of that debate was oh no,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: no fracking here, not in my backyard. So the United
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: Kingdom could have been energy in dependent. It could have
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: had some of the cheapest electricity prices anywhere.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: And it shows not to.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: And what they have now is some of the highest
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: energy prices in the world. They could have built nuclear
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: pop plants like fans.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: Did you know.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: Much of Europe sits on frackable natural gas reserves and
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: they refused the frack.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: So the fact that the price of energy is skyrocketing.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: And that they are going to struggle with it, you know,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: it doesn't make me too sad, given that it's their
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: choices that have led to this.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Their choices have led to this.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: Sadly, that is what we are. So Brits start tracking,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: what's the matter with you?
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: Frack?
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: Frack, frack, all right? So check out Alex Epstein. You'll
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: you'll learn so much. Alex Epstein that substect dot com.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: Alex Epstein does substect dot com Porto. We talked about Europe.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: European objectivists, objectivists of the world join us.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: In Porto in April.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: If Eli teenth I think that weekend a confidence, I'll
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: be there, Uncle will be there, uh TETs Fani will
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: be there, and uh I think it'd be an exciting program.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: We'd love to have you there. You can find it
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: information at inran dot oak slash start here inran dot
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: oak slash start here.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: And join us.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: You can need a discount ten percent discount on whatever
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: the cost is. Twenty six ybs ten is a discount
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: code twenty six ybs ten. All right, guys, we have
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: fifty dollars short of that one hour goal, and we're
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: on the second hour, and we're gonna we might finish
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: the second hour and need more questions, need many more questions.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: Particularly at the twenty dollars level.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: Fifty dollars level, but twenty at least many more questions
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: and stickers would be good. Thank you Rowland, Thank you
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: for the sticker. Really appreciate it. And by the way,
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: we would love it if you like the show, would
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: love it if you subscribed. If you're not a subscriber,
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: please subscribe. We've added quite a few subscribers to the
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: one book Show over the last month or so. All right,
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: let's start with a Let's start with Michael. Do we
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: overestimate how anti capitalist the left is. They use altruistic
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: egalitarian rhetoric, but every major city where what's left of
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: capitalism takes place all run by lefties. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: but that would suggest that they don't want to completely
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: destroy the golden egg, the golden goose that lay the
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: goose that lays the golden egg, which is a little
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: bit of capitalism that we have.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: So they walk around the edges.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: Some of them are suicidal, like some of these wealth
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: taxes or the new income tax in Washington. But they
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: in spite of the fact that they run these cities,
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: the cities are still producing a lot of wealth, and
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: there's still a lot of finance. There's still a lot
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: going on in these places in spite their leftist leadership.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: And that's because at the very least they realize that
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: they can't hurt it too much. I mean, it's pretty
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: amazing though, how in spite of all the regulations and
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: controls from from in California, Silicon Valley is still there.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: And that is in spite of the regulations and controls,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: They're still there because of the network effect of being
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: established there and such a such large numbers of people
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: and companies in rich capitalists all in one place. But
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think we overestimate that they're anti capitalist, because
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: they really are anti capitalists, but we underestimate how pragmatic
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: they are in the sense of, yeah, we don't want
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: to completely destroyed. But look at the taxes they just
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: raised in Washington State, which is going to drive a
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: lot of businessmen out of that state. The fact that
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: they might vote in this well tax in California, which
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: will drive out a lot of the billionaires in California,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: And ultimately we could see a lot of we could
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: see Silicon Valley slowly dissipating. I think, I think to
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: I think, one can only imagine how much better Silicon
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: Valley would be if California had more reasonable regulations or
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: not at all.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: How about that? That's almost reasonable answer.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: No regulations at all, particularly on the tech industry. All right,
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: forty dollars to make our first our goal. Let's see
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: Harrison val Kilma is going to be starving in a
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: movie despite his death. I wish Hollywood had the guts
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: to really push that AI trick in more interesting ways.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: Why can't we have modern movies starving Boris Calloff and
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: Marilyn Monroe? And theoretically we can, And I don't know
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: if the technology is that good yet. It might be
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: good on a small screen, but isn't good on a
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: big screen?
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: Is the acting? How real is the acting?
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: So we will see ultimately, yes, but again, how well
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: can you program it to act?
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: Can it ever manchine an actor? Actor a human being?
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it would be good if we got if
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: they became more creative, but they have to deal with
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: the unions, the Actors Union, the various unions in Hollywood
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: that are restricting the use of AI quite a bit.
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: So they have to deal with that, all right, Michael?
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: Part one, Why do you assume the Second Amendment is
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: completely ineffective against tanks and F thirty fives? Those planes
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: have to land somewhere. A few million armed Americans with
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: the fifteens can do a lot of disruption. Maybe maybe,
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: but you know, right now they have to land. Those
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: air bases could protect it, protected by tanks and marines.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: And do you think that these Americans can really you know,
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: the average guy who has a bunch of guns because
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: of the Second Amendment can is challenged by marines.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: I just don't.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: I just I think you guys underestimate how good a
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: professional army is and how difficult it would be. Not Look,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: there would be an insurrection, and there would be commando units,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: and there would be there would be people out there
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: fighting against the tyranny.
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: Hopefully I hope that all happens, but it would be rough.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: It would be rough as.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: Long as the used military went along with whoever the
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: authoritarian is. It's going to be very, very difficult now
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: matter how many internal revolution have they been the modern
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: world against the well functioning government. Second Amendment or no
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: Second Amendment, Michael Alsa says, And you're assuming that people
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: running the tanks in f thirty fives would even be
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: willing to use those.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: Weapons and their own citizens in the first place.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: Well, yes, I'm assuming that because we've now reached a
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: point where.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: We've embraced outhorbitarianism so significant.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: Hoever, Americans have embraced this, the military has not risen
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: up against it. I mean, again, you can draw all
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: kinds of scenarios.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: In my view, almost.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: Every scenario, the Second Amendment doesn't play a big role
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: in what happens, right, I mean, if the people running
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: the military are anti the authoritarian government, then they're the
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: ones who would turn on the government.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: They're the ones who have the beguns. They're the ones.
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: I can imagine a civil war between different military units
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: fighting each other for control of the country rights.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: And again, you could imagine a gorilla warfare.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: Campaign by Americans who have guns because of the Second Amendment,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: and they fight on against the authoritarian American government, but
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: it's not going to be particularly effective, you know, again
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: giving them on it, I mean, the American government will
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: have satellites again, will have airplanes. Don't even need F
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: thirty five's because the Second Amendment doesn't give you the
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: right to have a defense systems. The Second Amendment doesn't
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: give you the right to have satellites or to have
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: what do you call it a radar, So you don't
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: even need a stealth bomber. All you need is a
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: general simple plane. I mean imagine, I don't know if
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: you've ever seen what one of those what do we
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: call them before those seat hens or whatever they're called.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: The I mean they have these massive guns. I mean
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: they can mow down thousands of people fighting. Now here's
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: the thing. If you're gonna do a revolution, the first
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: thing you would do is break into military bases and
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: steal equipment.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: And for that you don't I don't think you need
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: a Second Amendment.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: For that, you knock out some people who do have guns,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: you take their guns, and you break into. You break
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: in and you steal handheld anti aircraft stuff.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe you steal some tanks, you steal it.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 2: But for that, you don't need a lot of map
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: weapons because you just steal the weapons. So if we're
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: gonna launch your revolution, we're gonna have to steal most
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: of the weapons.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: Anyway.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna be your handgun that you have next
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: to your bed or in the safe that's gonna save you.
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, if the Ranians are going to have any success,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: they're gonna have.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: To break into some of these.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: Military bases that the Israelis have weakened and steal their guns. Anyway,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: it's not that interesting of an argument about the Second
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: Amendment because it's irrelevant. We have a second Amendment, it
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: is protected. The Supreme Court is pretty adamant about that.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: And when we have an authoritarian government, we'll see what happens.
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: Hopefully we never do, but if we have it, we'll
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: see what happens. Harrison who else here started being regular
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: viewers again, especially for the military analysis. Well, obviously viewership
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: has gone up significantly since the war started. It went
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: up significantly during the first days of the Gods of
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: the war, and then it settles back down to to
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: who it was. But yeah, I mean, I get a
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: lot of viewership that is war related. People value my
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: military analysis.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: And and they show up.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: And on days where there's a lot of news about
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: the military, more people come to the show. On days
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: when like today, where there's a little less news about
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: the military and what's going on over there, there's a
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: few little you know, fewer people. But generally the military
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: stuff is what gets people to come on the show,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: which is great. Jesh, thank you, thank you, He says
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: thank you and icually thank you to him for the rupees.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: Indian rupees, kiki were Soviets too altruistic to nuke Afghanistan.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: They were not altruistic no, I think they were afraid
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: of nuking Afghanistan, that that would create real hostility from
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: the United States. That that Remember, this is the eighties,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: this is Reagan. They were afraid of the West response.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: They did not want to antike antagonize the West by
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: using a nuke. Also, a lot of Afghanis supported the
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: Soviet Union. They didn't want to hurt their allies. I
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: don't think they really wanted to create a zone in
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: that area where there was fully radioactive. Lots of reasons
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: why nukes are not particularly efficient weapons systems in warfare. Jonathan,
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: I support the operation in principle, but I have little
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: confidence in Trump's commitment and competence to do it. Worried
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: head milk things worse, Yeah, I mean, I don't think
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: he can make things worse even if they stopped. Today,
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: IWON is significantly weaker, So I don't think I'll make
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: it worse than before the war.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: But certainly I am too. I'm worried about Trump's commitment.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: I'm worried about his incompetence, his lack of planning and
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: and and the fact that he won't finish the job.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: So I'm worried about the ultimate outcome, spend a lot
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: of money on something that won't actually achieve the ultimate
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: outcome when we're so close, that would be uh, that
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: would be a challenge. So yeah, I'm worried like you
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: about Trump, Paul. Do you foresee that i GC going
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: underground and becoming a guerrilla terrorist organization within Iran after
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: regime change?
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: I think they become a terrorist organization. They try to
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: become a terrorist organization. But again, it's very It's it's.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: Much more difficult to.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: Motivate people to fight on your side if the cause
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: seems lost, and that's why defeating them is so crucial,
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: not just negotiating with them, but defeating them so that
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: the cause is lost and then it's just they'll be
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: less powerful.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: But yeah, they'll.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: Probably be a terrorist threat with any roun from the
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: remnants of the IRGC for years to come.
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: Harrison says, Thursday.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: Is rapidly becoming my favorite day of the week because
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: tomorrow you will be able to hear a linguistic industrial
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: rock song about the manufacturing of pacemakers called Machina Pulses.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: Anyway music is.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: Available cool, so you guys should check out Machina pulses. James,
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: did you hear about the F thirty five or was
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: shot down today?
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: Do you think it is real?
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: It is amazing that ten thousand strikes have been done
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: in only one plane hit.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is amazing.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: Again, some American planes have been shot down by friendly fire,
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: but by I think a Kuwaiti pilot.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: But this is the first time.
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: It seems like an American Israeli plane has been shut
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: down from air defense systems. It doesn't look like it's
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: suffered a lot of damage. The plane managed to land
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: in an IF air base on the other side of
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: the Gulf, not in Iran, right, and the pilot seems
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: to be injured.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: But okay, so we couldn't have suffered a lot of damage.
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: So it's not clear what exactly hit the plane and
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: what caused it come down, So we don't know yet
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: the details. It'll be interesting to see once they investigated
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: what actually caused the plane. It is interesting that Israel
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: flew twelve days in a twelve day war.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: Has flown this war.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: Thousands of missions and not a single plane, not a
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: single plane has been down.
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: All right, Harrison, come on, people, show you're not jobless bums.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: I didn't say that Harrison did, right, you know, twenty
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: more bucks would get us to at least.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: The one hour ago woman.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: How should the Cuban change How should the Cuba change
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: the liberal democracy? Well, they would need some kind of
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: interim government that over that basically instituted a democratic process
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: and allowed political parties to form. It would be good
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: if they kind of, you know, put together some kind
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: of constitutional convention and wrote a constitution. But you probably
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: want to have first some kind of voting to get
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: people elected who are not with the current regimes.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: You don't want this regime writing the constitution.
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: So in the interim government that establishes elections and then
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: run an election process, and then have some kind of
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: constitutional convention that writs a constitution, and then you run
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: the elections again based.
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: On the new constitution. I think.
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: And the most important thing to be done is private property.
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: Is the recognition of private property as quickly as quickly,
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: as quickly as quickly as possible, which would mean a
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: completely new legal code and getting rid of the existing judges.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: And it's a lot of work. Wesley, What has Trump
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: done wrong in Ukraine?
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: From an objective's point of view, No more taxpayer funded aid,
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: continued weapons sales to Europe intelligence sharing. So from my
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: point of view, I don't know about objective's point of view.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: From my point of view, I think it was worthwhile
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: providing taxpayer funded aid.
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: You could find my talk on the one.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: In Ukraine where I give a full explanation of why
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: I think it's directly in America's self interest for the
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: Russians to lose in Ukraine, and it prevents the risk
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: of Americans ever having to fight directly against Ukraine, which
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: I think should be against the Russia, which should be avoided.
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: So it's money went well spent.
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: To prevent an attack on NATO which would directly involve
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: the United States. What else has he done wrong in Ukraine? God,
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: he has argued that Ukraine started the war, so he's
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: lied about it. He's provided molest support for the Russians.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 2: He has taken Russia's position on almost every issue related
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: to Ukraine. So he has you know, one of the
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: most powerful things an American president has is the bully pulpit.
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: Is this molest sanctioned, is this males support?
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: This is what Reagan really did to bring down the
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: Berlin Wall, much more than military spending. It was his
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: unequivocal support for the people against the communist regime. The
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 2: biggest thing, the biggest bad thing Trump has done is.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: He's refused to condemn Russia.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: He's refused to place blame weight belongs. He's refused to
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: provide moral support to Ukraine. He's refused to support I mean,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: think about the fact that if we supported Ukraine directly,
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: it would be much easier right now to get the
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: kind of drone technology we need in order to stop
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: you know, to help you know, the Gulf States deal
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: with the drone attacks from Iran, but we've passed off
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: the Ukrainians, so you know, it's a problem. But yeah,
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: I believe in direct aid from the United States to Ukraine.
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: Stop all the aid everywhere else in the world. This
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: one is an American self interest.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: Stop being giving aid to Americans who do nothing to
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: support American interests.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: Welfare, security, medicaid.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: You form all those programs, but you know, keep funding
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: stuff that actually supports American interests, like Ukraine. But the
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: biggest thing he's done is the moral issue, the bully
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: pulpit issue, the fact that he is so.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: Being so pro Russia, so pro Russia.
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: In his speech and his behavior, the way he greeted
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 2: Putin in Alaska, the way he treated as Zelenski novele office,
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: that is.
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: Being unbelievably destructive to the Ukrainian cause.
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: Roland, my high school math teacher, told me, told us
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: he had held a machine.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: Gun during the nineteen fifty six revolution. This is revolution.
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: This isn't Hungary. I take it.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: Not sure where he got it, but I'm pretty sure
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: the communist regime didn't have a second Yeah.
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, revolutionaries don't wait.
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: For the government they were voting against to defend their
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: right to have weapons.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: They steal them.
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: Hungarians and Czechs and others fought against the Nazis.
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: Inside.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: That the police resistance vote against the Nazis inside, not
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: because they had a second Amendment, but because they stole
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: the weapons from the Nazis. So ultimately, any resistance is
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: going to have to find ways to steal weapons from
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: their dominant force. Now, in Hungary, they lost because that
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: machine gun was not good enough to withstand the Russian
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: tanks that rolled into Budapest and into Prague. But yep,
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: Harrison with great inventors, entrepreneur was in businessmen throughout history,
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: in your opinion, deserves to be immortalized in song. Which
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: great inventors.
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: Oh god, so many?
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, where would you even start, Where would you
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: even start?
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 2: Francis Bacon as the thinker who makes who makes human progress,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: the first one to really think about human progress and
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: give it mal sanction if you will. In fun day,
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: you know all the scientists, all the great scientists from
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: Galileo and Coponicus and Newton of course, but Maxwell and
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: all the others in the nineteenth cent.
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: She and then you know inventors.
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: God, the guy invented the you know, I don't know
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 2: that my name, the guy invented the the the steam engine,
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: and the first make a nize sewing machine and sewing
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: not sewing loom and the sewing machine singer.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: And yeah, there's no it's a long, long, long, long,
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: long long list. It's great. A. B. Schmidt.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: Joe Kent is under investigation for leaking classical information.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah I know I saw that. But here's the challenge.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: We don't know if he really is under investigation because
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 2: he really leaked the stuff, or whether this is Trump
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: getting back at him. I mean, Joe Kent is a scumbag,
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: is a racist, anti Semitic scumbag. He should have never
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 2: been nominated and the Senate should never approved him for
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: his position. So I have no problem, you know, I
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: have nothing but hostility towards him.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: But I don't know.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 2: If what Trump is going after him about the leaked
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: information is true or not, because I don't trust Trump
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: not to, you know, not to What do you call
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: it a lash out at somebody who's criticized him with
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: some bogus accusation. Yes, all right, thank you guys, thanks
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: to all the super shadows, thanks to everybody who's here.
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: A few two dollars.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: Stickers one dollar stickers would get us over the threshold.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: That would be great. Don't forget to like the show
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: before you leave.
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: Don't forget a subscribe if you're not a subscriber, don't
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 2: forget to rewind the show and listen to the beginning
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: of it if you came in late. Yeah, thanks for
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: everybody being here. But yeah, if somebody wants to do
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: eight dollars so we can make it at least the
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 2: first hour goal, that would be amazing.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, I will see.
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 2: You guys tomorrow, Yes, tomorrow, and over the weekend, and yeah,
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: have a great rest of the week and see you
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 2: all tomorrow.
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: Bye, everybody,