Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / The Markets, Ukraine, And Biden’s SCOTUS Pick

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The Markets, Ukraine, And Biden’s SCOTUS Pick · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. The question for a
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: lot of investors yesterday and today and going forward over
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: the next Saturdays certainly is how will the uncertainty, the
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: geopolitical uncertainty in Europe effect the global economic recovery. We're
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: talking inflation, economic growth, and what does that mean for
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: financial assets? With David Coodla joins us. He's a founder,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: CEO and c i O of Mainstay Capital Management. David,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: as your outlooked changed it all over the last twenty
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: four hours, It hasn't really changed from you know, where
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: we've been for the past several months. And what I
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: mean by that is, you know we were we've been
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: focused more. We're overweight value and cyclical stocks UH for
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: equity exposure, we are overweight commodities as a hedge UH,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: and we're mostly void interestrate sensitive bonds. Now with the
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: geopolitical events. You know, we geopolitical events don't have a
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: perpetual impact on markets. That's what history has shown. I
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: think that this event is a little bit different because
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: of the environment in with inflation and what commodities could
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: be impacted. That's even whether they're impacted by sanctions or not. Uh,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: they'll be. They're just impacted by the event itself, whether
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: we're talking about oil, gas, whether we're talking about agricultural commodities, fertilizer.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia together supplied of the world's wheat and corn. Um,
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  Speaker 1: they're going to be in the Ukraine recovery period um.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: But we'll see what's yet to come. On sanctions, they've
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: been more symbolic. They've hit the financial ins toos, but
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: they really haven't gone after rushes jugular yet and and
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: may not at all. On where they make their money,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: which is hydrocarbon's fossil fuel and and and seems like
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: they're making more than ever we've seen. Um that Russian
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: sales of gas were up I think today and thirty
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: eight percent yesterday, So everyone's rushing to buy their products,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: even at much higher prices. UM. It doesn't seem that
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: just doesn't seem right, but I guess that's the way
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: it goes sometimes. What do you expect the knock on
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: effects to be for the FED? Anything at all? Well,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the you know, the Feds, the FEDS fight coming into
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: this is inflation is bringing inflation down. We got a
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: PC this morning at six point one percent, another you know,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: another increase year over year. Um we have you know,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I think the FED hope that still that inflation comes
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: down on its own a supply chains heel. Uh. You know,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: prices were high coming into this, they stand only to
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: be higher. Uh as we come out because of uh
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: we're aluminum is skyrocketed to where uh wheat up six
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: percent yesterday. You know that the impact of this geopolitical
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: event will have some lasting impacts. That stands to only
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: increase inflation. And you know, for the FED, really what
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: they're staring in the face of his stagflation, Yeah exactly.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: I mean Paul has been asking or making the point
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: for for weeks or months now that the FED can't
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: stop inflation caused by supply constraints. They can only slow
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: demand with increased rates, right, So that means kind of
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: the only choice is to slow down the economy um
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: to to get inflation under control. Yeah, and we have
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: you know when we talk about these knock on effects
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: or what's going on with uh, you know, with prices
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: going higher, especially when we talk about oil that you know,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: at one point Brent crude was a roaching hundred five
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: dollars per arrow per barrel. But you know, uh, even
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: before the geopolitical event, we were looking for oil gas
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: prices to go even higher. Oil is a tax on
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: the economy, and but it's also inflationary. So they're really
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: between a rock and a hard place because there are
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: forces there they're gonna be slowing the economy and forces
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: it seemed to be continuing to ramp inflation higher, much
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: higher than where the fat expected and probably a lot
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: of others as well. So we're seeing these forecasts for
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: how many rate hikes we get this year. You know,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: they've been all over the map this week. Each day
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: is to what was happening in the conflict in Ukraine. So, David,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: what are your clients asking you most, you know, over
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: the last few days, what's the big question they have?
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: What this geopolitical event means to the market. It I
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: think it's typical Uh, as much as you educate your
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: clients talk about these things. We sent out a communication
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday mornings specifically about you know, what you create,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: you create going on in Ukraine and what it means
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: to the markets, what it means to the portfolios. But
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: you know, there's still at twenty four hour news cycle. Um,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: they're hearing the concerns about, uh, what could happen. And
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: you know, we've seen you know, leaders around the world,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: specifically in the EU and US, who have been trying
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: to get gas and oil anywhere they can and they
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: are not in i think in terms of sanctions not
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: to put those supplies at risk because they're concerned about
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: domestic policy. So you know that the concern is they
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: see higher inflation, they hear the the discussions about slower growth,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: and you know that's that's that's obviously a good discussion
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: to have to put them at ease about what we're doing.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: All Right, David, thank you so much for joining us
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: once again. We always appreciate getting your perspective on these markets.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: David Coudlif, founder, CEO and c IO of main Stake
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Capital Management. Okay, we're let's call it thirty six hours
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: into this news cycle with Russia invading Ukraine. It seems
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: like something out of the twentieth century at Jason Bourne.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: But here we are nevertheless, markets very violatile. Yesterday took
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: a big sol off as one would expect, but then
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: in the afternoon really came back with a vengeance and
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: closed on the upside. And we've got some more green
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: on the screen today. But how do you factor in
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: geopolitical risk uh into your investing, particularly if you're a
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: tech investors, And for that we check in with Lauren Hine,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: head of advisor relations at robo Global. Lauren, thanks so
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: much for taking the time here, um, as the last
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours changed the way you guys think about
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: these markets. Hi, thanks for having me. Absolutely not. We
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: don't make decisions um about kind of the long term
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: outlook for innovation based on market swings. I mean, frankly,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: if anything, the lasts in the last I guess month
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: or two have given our investors a good opportunity to
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: kind of buy in at lower prices. So there's long
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: term opportunity for us whenever we have these kind of
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: geopolitical hits. Um. Do you is that the first thought
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: after obviously the human issues that we're all concerned about. UM.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: When you look at the markets, do you think this
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: UM is going to cause volatility that is going to
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: give us a chance to get in UM. That's very
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: much I think where our our mindset is and our
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: investors mindset is. I mean, robot Global specializes in investing
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: in things like robotics and automation, and you know, despite
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: what's happening in the geopolitical landscape, there will be more automation,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: there will be more innovation, more robotics application cross sector
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: over the next twelve months, over the next three or
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: five ten years. So a twenty four hour kind of
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: geopolitical news cycle isn't going to really affect the trajectory
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: of technology. And this this leads me to another question.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Paul and I were talking to UM a guy who
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: runs a tech cup any recently and he specialized in logistics,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: and we asked him, you know, does this present a
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: problem Russia invading Ukraine for the global supply chain? And
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: he said, actually, the economies are pretty insular and not
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: really do you see it the same way, UM, I mean, honestly,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: it's not something that we've raised a lot of red
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: flags about here in the last day. We're obviously when
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: we're watching logistics, we're watching supply chain and factory automation regardless,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: is something we're very optimistic and excited about for the future,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: something that frankly, technology can really solve some serious problems.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: But it's not nothing being affected by Russia that we're
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: talking about right now, Lauren. Five G that's something that
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: we've heard a lot about last eighteen months or so.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: How do you guys think about five G and maybe
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: how are you guys trying to get some exposure to that? Sure, Honestly,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: we're not trying to get a pure play exposure to
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: five G through any of our indexes or any of
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: our underlying technology funds that we're creating UM. As far
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: as the five network itself, we know that we need it.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: We need a faster network with more capacity UM for
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: any of our technologies to run. So what will be
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: crucial in kind of the next the new economy, But
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: it's not something that we're actively trying to get exposure to.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I think we're specialists on kind of the ecosystem of
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: automation more than on the the infrastructure technology space. All right, Lauren,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us, really appreciate getting
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: We didn't get to ask her at all about softball.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I know there's there's a lot of serious stuff going on,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: and we come to you, Lauren for real market knowledge,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: and you're great at that. But you also played varsity
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: um softball at WESI UM. I spent my time in
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: left field, and you guys are making me think I
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: need to get someone on my Google and really start
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: scrubbing that. I'm just thinking. It just sounds like so
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: much fun, and it's Friday, and there's no reason that
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: we shouldn't mention. Mean, how great is intercollegiate softball? Actually,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: college sports are wonderful. Softball is a fast game. It's
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: fun to watch, it's fun to play, and frankly, the
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: discipline and the team atmosphere is a great skill set
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: for kind of the rest of your life, especially in
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: a fast faced environment like working with the markets. So
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: that it can't endorse it enough, we're gonna bring it up.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: We're going to talk some softball. Larenheyde, head of advisor
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: relations at Robot Global. This is the big take, the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: best of Bloomberg's in depth original reporting from around the globe.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: We're running on a financial system that's running on old
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: technology prices. Fish recordized. What unfolds in mid terms, we
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: will no doubt see again in the next presidential election.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: The Big Take on Bloomberg Radio, all right, the Big
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Takes story today really focuses on economics, macro economics on
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: a global scale, and the question is how the unfolding
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: war in Europe could threaten the global economic recovery from
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the pandemic. Let's check in with Tom or Like, chief
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: economists for Bloomberg Economics. He joins us here on the
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: phone time, So give us a sense of kind of
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: what you and your colleagues are thinking about this continued
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: global economic recovery post pandemic, and how it may be
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: impacted by the events we're seeing in Russia and Ukraine.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: So there's three channels which we see for impact from
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Ukraine to the rest of the world. The first is
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: spillovers from Russian sanctions Russian recession to Europe. That's a
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: drag on exports for Europe, especially for the Eastern European
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: countries which are most closely had the closest trade links
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: with Russia. The second is what happens to energy prices Now,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the big concern here is that Russian supplies of gas
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: to Europe get affected. We see spiking European gas prices,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: global oil prices that hit consumer spending power at the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: same time as pushing inflation higher. And the third channel, well,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that's the financial market channel. We've not seen it so far.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Energy prices have stabilized, equity markets have stabilized, but clearly
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: in a geopolitical conflict, in a war, there's the chance
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: of a sustained risk off move for markets. If that happens,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: we see another drag on growth. Potentially we see a
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: more dovish trajectory for the fair heading into the second
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: half of the year. Tom, how bad would it be
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: for the European continental economy to start buying gas, oil,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: and aluminum from Russia. I mean, surely the prices would
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: go higher, a lot of shortages would be would pop up,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: making life more difficult. But would it be a huge
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: problem for growth. It would be a very significant problem
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: for growth. And this is the kind of the dilemma
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: for Europe's leaders. On the one hand, they want to
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: signal to put in that this behavior is completely unacceptable. Well,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: start funding. The other hand, start funding the right exactly.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: On the other hand, turning off gas imports from Russia,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: which would really be the sort of the maximum pain
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: point for Putin, would also impose very high costs on Europe.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: We'd see inflation going higher, we'd see consumer spending power
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: going down. Likely, we'd see Europe going into at least
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a mild down term, if not an outright recession. So far,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: European leaders have been very, very reluctant to pay that price,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: and that's why we're seeing sanctions that hit banks, that
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: hit corporates, that stop but stop short of hitting Russia's
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: energy sector. I guess the question there in is what
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: needs to occur for for the United States and his
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Western allies to take that step, Tom, to really go
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: after the energy complex, which is point out we'll have,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: you know, repercussions for certainly Europeans, and you know, probably
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: even more than that. Well, they've got to decide it's
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: worth it, right the exament, they don't think it's worth it.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: It's not worth the injury to our own economy too,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: to stop funding Vladimir Putin's invasion of other countries. So, Tom,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: is there any scenario where you see that happening. So
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I think one crucial point here, um is that Ukraine
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: is not a member of NATO, right um. And so
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: the obligation to put boots on the ground, um, and
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: to get really serious about defense of the democracy there
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: is not nearly as strong as it would be a
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: favorite NATO member. So I'm an economist, I'm not an
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: international relations expert, but I think it's the NATO membership
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: question which is crucial there. Um. And if you saw
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Putin's ambition stretching two countries that are members of NATO,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: that's when things get really seri us in terms of sanctions,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: in terms of military support, that's when you'd start to
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: really be concerned about the gas being turned off for
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Europe if they went to the Baltics for example. Um.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: We have seen, you know, during the Reagan administration, as
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: the Cold War was at its you know peak, um,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: military spending was massive and so was economic growth. Is
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: that is that a possibility of this if this escalates.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: So the end of the Cold War hasn't played out
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: quite as hoped write Um. If you go back to
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the ES, there was this kind of triumphalist view that
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: democracy and free market and the West or in the ascendancy,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and Russia was going to move on to that path,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: and maybe even China was going to move onto that path.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: And that's why you had this very optimistic period in
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: the early two thousands where China was coming into the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: global economy and Russia scene to be on a reforming
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: path and globalization was driving great for everybody. Well, covid
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Us China trade wars, neither war in the Ukraine. Seems
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: we've moved decisively off that trajectory deglobalization, maybe not, but
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: certainly slower globalization going forward. Yep, all right, Tom, thanks
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Tom orl chief economists for
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics. Well, today President Biden selected a nominee for
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, Judge Katangi Brown and Jackson, the first
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: black woman nominee to the Supreme Court. Um, what does
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: it mean and how is this going to go? How's
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the whole process gonna work? And this person get approved?
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: June Grasso, host of Bloomberg and Bloomberg Opinionsso it's Grosso.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: What did I say? So this is important to people?
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: How you pronounced their name? June Grasso? What did I say?
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: By the way, you said Grasso, like like Dick Grass. Remember,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: so it's grosso with June. Are you going with the
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: soft a Yes, soft day. I wouldn't have stopped you though,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: but but Matt did. Mat he has no Yeah, he
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: doesn't work. Listen June. I used to drive home at
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the same time as June had her show every day.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: She had a great legal show on Bloomberg Radio with
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Michael Beast. I listened to it every day. I loved it. Um.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: She went to Wellesley, which I think is amazing. Uh
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: and uh law degree from Harvard. She's an Emmy Award winner,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: So she's kind of a big deal. And yet I
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: wasn't nominated to the Supreme Court. What happened to tell
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: us about the nominee? All Right, she is a star
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Katangi Brown Jackson. She's been on the bench for nearly
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: a decade. She has the Ivy League credentials, Harvard College,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Harvard Law School, she clerked for Brier, who she's going
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: to replace. And she's got a different kind of background
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: in that she served as a federal public defender. The
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: last Supreme Court justice with significant public defender uh or
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: significant experience representing criminal defendants was Thorgrid Marshall, the legendary
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: civil rights lawyer, and she has been considered a contender
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: for quite a while. President Obama not actually did an
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: interview with her when a sea came open that he
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: gave to Merrick Garland. We know how that turned out.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: But she she's just a star June. Do you think
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: she'll get approved? Oh, I definitely think she'll get approved.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: When she went when the question is how nasty will
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the nomination process be? I mean the nomination process has
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: been for the last few nominees contentious since Garland. Yeah,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: well yeah, Garland never got never even got a care Yes, yeah,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: but it was getting it was a little bit before that,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: but it's gotten so contangents and awful. But she just
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: not a year ago, less than a year ago, went
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: through the confirmation process for the d C Circuit, which
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: is sort of the feeder court to the Supreme Court,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: and she sailed. She sailed through that. Basically there were
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: three Republicans that voted with her, uh for her that
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: was out of the committee. That was Lindsay Graham's uh,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. But you know, the Supreme
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Court is a different The Supreme Court nominations and hearings
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: are different, so we don't know if she'll get those
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: particular votes. But the Republicans really don't have a coherent
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: strategy or reason to attack her. So, you know, the
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: the questioning we heard from Republicans during that hearing was
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: about you know, wonky sort of sentencing guidelines and the
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: fact that she had represented as a public defender or
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: guantanam obey inmate. That was probably the most they had
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: on her and her you know. Also, she's ruled in
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of high profile cases, but none cases involving
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: those hot button issues like abortion or guns or religious rights.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: The highest profile you have to think about is the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Don McGann case where she famously said presidents are not
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: kings about Donald Trump. So, so assuming she gets confirmed June,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: what does the Supreme Court look like then? So the
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: ideological makeup of the court won't change. It will still
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: be six Conservatives and three liberals, but those three liberals
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: will be women. It's going to be an all women block,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: and also with diversity of their own Hispanic, Jewish, and Black.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: It's going to be I think, really something to see
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: because those three women are going to be able to
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: talk about some of the issues, and particularly with her
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: background Katangi Brown Jackson, in some of the cases that
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: come forward. For example, they're going to be an attack
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: on affirmative action coming up next term, and the only
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: other black on the court, Clarence Thomas, is not a
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: fan of affirmative action, So we'll see how she relates
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: in that case and and what happens. I just expect
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: that they're really going to be speck tacular. They're all
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: three are so well spoken and really um sort of there.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: You know, you can there you have sound bites from
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: them if you ever listen, if you're wonk enough to
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: listen to Supreme Court arguments, you'll you can you know,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: you sort of see that the justices that have like
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: what i'd call a sound bite that say things that
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: just resonate. And Elena Kagan and so do Mayor certainly
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: have that, and I expect that Katangi Brown Jackson will
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: as well. By the way, how do you do judges
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: ideological leanings stay the same because their careers are so long, right,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and I know Reagan, for example, appointed a few Federal
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Court judges who turned extremely liberal in there, right, and
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: so that's definitely true. You have certain justices who turn
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: with David Sutor is a great example of a justice
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: that they thought was going to be moderate to conservative
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: and turned out to be moderate to liberal liberal. So
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: but the thing is that in order to prevent that
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: from happening in the future, what's being done now is
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: they're vetting these candidates more closely, and they're looking for
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: a background, a history of conservatism so that it will
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: be unusual, or liberalism or liberalism so that it will
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: be unusual for them to all of a sudden make
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: a turn. But gradually it could happen. And also there
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: are some cases where you don't expect, you know, a
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: ruling and all of a sudden, for example, in the
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: in the ruling about um uh transgender you know, being
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: able to get a job and the violation we had
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Gorset's writing that majority option, which was a surprise. Okay, June,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for breaking it down for us.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Drewn Grosso, host of Bloomberg Law and Bloomberk Opinion for
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 22:51
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• 22:54
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• 23:01
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• 23:04
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• 23:07
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