Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Slide Sends Valuation to Pre-AI Boom Levels
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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- 0:21Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Let's talk a little technology.
- 0:25Speaker 3: Why not Man Deep Seeing, global tech research head from
- 0:27Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 0:28Speaker 2: He joins us here, so I'm seen as Bloomberg News story.
- 0:31Speaker 3: NVIDIAs stock is at its cheapest it's been since before
- 0:34Speaker 3: the AI boom. After news after losing roughly one trillion
- 0:37Speaker 3: dollars in market value over the less than two months.
- 0:41Speaker 2: What's going on there? Taking some profits?
- 0:43Speaker 4: Yeah, taking profits? And look, I think when it comes
- 0:47Speaker 4: to the chip space, we've heard quite a few announcements
- 0:52Speaker 4: in the last few months, both from the hyperscalers ramping
- 0:56Speaker 4: up their efforts, whether it's Amazon or Microsoft. So it's
- 1:00Speaker 4: not just Google TPUs anymore, BUTTA All these hyperscalers are
- 1:04Speaker 4: focused more on the inference side of things, which is
- 1:07Speaker 4: where you know you're generating most of your revenue if
- 1:11Speaker 4: you're focused on AI. And they've left the training market
- 1:15Speaker 4: to Nvidia. But when it comes to inferencing specifically, you've
- 1:19Speaker 4: got more competition. Even open Ai and Tropic are looking
- 1:23Speaker 4: to make their own chips. Now, the timeline for this
- 1:26Speaker 4: is all you know, two three years out. There will
- 1:29Speaker 4: be nothing imminent in terms of, you know, something that
- 1:32Speaker 4: can compete with Nvidia, but the market is anticipatory in
- 1:37Speaker 4: that sense, and the fact that everyone is looking to
- 1:40Speaker 4: build their own chips is a sign that there will
- 1:43Speaker 4: be more competition for Nvidia down the line.
- 1:46Speaker 5: That makes it sound like it's easy for them to
- 1:47Speaker 5: make their own ships. They partner up with someone and
- 1:49Speaker 5: they just make it.
- 1:50Speaker 2: It can't be that easy, is It.
- 1:52Speaker 4: Can't be that easy, which is why the timelines are
- 1:55Speaker 4: already two years out. There's nothing that I could say
- 1:58Speaker 4: over the next six months, you know there will be
- 2:01Speaker 4: a competitor to Nvideo or Google TPUs. Google TPU is
- 2:04Speaker 4: what is inspiring all these companies to build their own
- 2:08Speaker 4: chips because they've seen Google has released eight versions of
- 2:12Speaker 4: their own chip, and the Entropic models, which are the
- 2:15Speaker 4: best in class models, were trained on Google TPUs and
- 2:20Speaker 4: also they use Google TPUs for inferencing for the most part,
- 2:24Speaker 4: So now they have started to use Nvidia. But your
- 2:27Speaker 4: best model out there wasn't using Nvidia, and so from
- 2:31Speaker 4: that perspective, there's a case to be made that there
- 2:34Speaker 4: could be potentially more competition given what Google has accomplished
- 2:38Speaker 4: over the years.
- 2:40Speaker 3: The AI rotation trade is gathering pace in Asia as
- 2:43Speaker 3: investors pull money from chip makers and hunt for cheaper
- 2:45Speaker 3: ways to play the technology boom.
- 2:47Speaker 2: What are the cheaper ways to play the technology boom?
- 2:50Speaker 3: Might just go buy a utility company.
- 2:53Speaker 2: I don't think so.
- 2:54Speaker 4: Look, I think right now we are in that risk
- 2:57Speaker 4: of sentiment when it comes to the AI infrastructure trade.
- 3:02Speaker 4: People seem to be panicking, and they are, and whenever
- 3:05Speaker 4: something like this happens, there's indiscriminate selling of all AI
- 3:09Speaker 4: infrastructure names. People don't try to sort things out of
- 3:13Speaker 4: this company like Memory, for example, I mean all their earnings,
- 3:17Speaker 4: whether it's Samsung or Micron. These are companies that have
- 3:22Speaker 4: the highest margins they've ever had, shown incredible pricing power,
- 3:29Speaker 4: and you know their customers are looking to lock in
- 3:32Speaker 4: the pricing at this point because they don't want to
- 3:35Speaker 4: pay higher prices three months from now. So in terms
- 3:38Speaker 4: of pricing power, if there's any sector that has the
- 3:41Speaker 4: best pricing power right now, it's memory. And so from
- 3:44Speaker 4: that perspective, I don't see a reason why you would
- 3:47Speaker 4: want to, you know, sell these companies, especially companies with
- 3:52Speaker 4: pricing power, with margin expansion, with probably the best margins
- 3:56Speaker 4: they ever had, just because you feel, you know, they
- 3:59Speaker 4: they're hitting Peaker. I don't see that as a reason.
- 4:02Speaker 5: We were talking about in Nvidia earlier, and Vidia shares
- 4:04Speaker 5: have shot up. They're now up about nine tens of
- 4:07Speaker 5: one percent from being in the red. And this is
- 4:10Speaker 5: on a headline from the Information, which is a tech publication,
- 4:13Speaker 5: saying that China will let its top AI companies buy
- 4:16Speaker 5: some in Nvidia H two hundred chips.
- 4:19Speaker 2: This is the.
- 4:20Speaker 5: Lower grade in Nvidia AI chips, right Mande, Yes, Okay.
- 4:24Speaker 4: This is the Hopper, the not the Nerve version, but
- 4:28Speaker 4: the version that probably they were allowed to sell in China.
- 4:31Speaker 4: And yeah, the US companies have the better versions available.
- 4:35Speaker 5: Okay, so it's a downgraded version from what Nvidia offers
- 4:39Speaker 5: to the US customer. But the US government has allowed
- 4:43Speaker 5: in Nvidia to sell to China. China just didn't allow
- 4:46Speaker 5: its own companies to buy these chips up until now. Correct,
- 4:49Speaker 5: easy come, easygo, China can turn on permission and turn
- 4:52Speaker 5: off permission like a switch, right. I mean, that's the risk.
- 4:55Speaker 2: Here, that's the risk.
- 4:57Speaker 4: And look, when it comes to the Chinese open source
- 5:00Speaker 4: models so far, what we have seen from them is
- 5:03Speaker 4: they are probably six to nine months behind when it
- 5:06Speaker 4: comes to the capabilities of the models. And even though
- 5:10Speaker 4: they didn't have access to the latest in video chips,
- 5:13Speaker 4: at the end of the day, these chips are deployed
- 5:16Speaker 4: on a cloud somewhere and that cloud may not be
- 5:19Speaker 4: in China, but the customers could be these Chinese model companies.
- 5:24Speaker 4: So from that perspective, there is that aspect around accessing
- 5:28Speaker 4: the compute wherever it's available on the cloud, and that
- 5:33Speaker 4: may go beyond the geographic boundaries.
- 5:35Speaker 2: Thirty seconds s khinex.
- 5:36Speaker 3: They want to do a twenty billion dollar equity offering
- 5:38Speaker 3: here in the US to trade Friday.
- 5:40Speaker 2: Is that going to happen?
- 5:41Speaker 4: I think so yes.
- 5:42Speaker 2: I mean you've taped so that it. Yeah.
- 5:44Speaker 4: But look, I think investors who believe in this memory
- 5:48Speaker 4: cycle that it's going to be durable and long, they
- 5:52Speaker 4: will want a piece of it.
- 5:54Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 6:01Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US Live
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- 6:16Speaker 3: One of the big stories obviously in capital markets over
- 6:18Speaker 3: the last really a couple of months, it's just been
- 6:20Speaker 3: the issuance of investment grade debt by technology companies associated
- 6:24Speaker 3: with their AI capital spending plans. The most recent deal
- 6:27Speaker 3: is Amazon coming with a big deal at twenty five
- 6:31Speaker 3: billion dollars. That's issuing more than sixty billion across currencies.
- 6:34Speaker 3: You know, just recently, Rob Shifman, he's been on fire
- 6:37Speaker 3: on this stuff, way ahead of it. Senior tech credit
- 6:40Speaker 3: analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 6:42Speaker 2: Amazon, just talk to us. That's the most recent deal. Rob,
- 6:45Speaker 2: Just give us a sense of how that was received.
- 6:47Speaker 3: In the marketplace and how the market's thinking about some
- 6:50Speaker 3: of these tech players that have really become big issuers.
- 6:52Speaker 6: Sure, you know, if you read Bloomberg News, it reads
- 6:56Speaker 6: like it was received terribly and quite frankly, I don't
- 6:58Speaker 6: think that was the case. You know, when they've actually
- 7:01Speaker 6: issued almost one hundred billion dollars a debt this year
- 7:04Speaker 6: across currencies, when you issue that much paper, every time
- 7:08Speaker 6: you do a deal, you need to pay a little
- 7:09Speaker 6: bit more. So new issue concessions on this were higher
- 7:13Speaker 6: than traditionally. That being said, they were probably about ten
- 7:17Speaker 6: or fifteen beeps higher. And when you're talking about a
- 7:19Speaker 6: company that's raising thirty year money at spreads over treasuries
- 7:25Speaker 6: at one hundred and ten basis points, quite frankly, it's
- 7:28Speaker 6: just a rounding error. The ability to raise twenty five
- 7:31Speaker 6: billion dollars in a couple of hours. I don't care
- 7:34Speaker 6: if it's oversubscribed by two times or five times. Amazon
- 7:38Speaker 6: could raise as much money as they want whenever they want.
- 7:41Speaker 6: They just might have to pay a little bit more.
- 7:43Speaker 5: So that paying a little bit more, you're attributing it
- 7:45Speaker 5: to the fact that they've already raised quite a bit
- 7:47Speaker 5: of money. And I think you're referring to the big
- 7:49Speaker 5: bond sale they did in Canada, the Luney offering last month.
- 7:53Speaker 5: Or is it that maybe sentiment has turned a little bit.
- 7:56Speaker 5: I think that's what we're trying to get at.
- 7:57Speaker 6: Yet, No, I don't think sentiment is turned. Doing alternative currencies,
- 8:02Speaker 6: non dollar currencies is actually good from a US dollar
- 8:05Speaker 6: trading perspective. Because for every dollar that they issue that
- 8:08Speaker 6: is in alternative currencies, they don't have to do in
- 8:11Speaker 6: US dollars. What starts to happen is large money managers
- 8:14Speaker 6: just get full on the name. You know their Amazon
- 8:16Speaker 6: has about two hundred million dollars of debt outstanding now,
- 8:19Speaker 6: and these are large positions, so incentive to incentivize people
- 8:23Speaker 6: to take on more, you just have to pay a
- 8:25Speaker 6: little bit more. But what I'm saying is the overall
- 8:28Speaker 6: cost of borrowing for them from a spread perspective, is
- 8:31Speaker 6: still somewhat tiny. So yes, sentiment is getting a little
- 8:36Speaker 6: bit weaker. That happens when you have record issuance, and
- 8:39Speaker 6: it's likely to continue. Also, Amazon's not ruling out they're
- 8:42Speaker 6: going to be back in the markets later this year.
- 8:44Speaker 6: That said, you know, if they did an alphabet style
- 8:47Speaker 6: equity deal and raised seventy five eighty five billion dollars
- 8:50Speaker 6: of equity next month, I think you're going to see
- 8:53Speaker 6: spreads tighter. And in fact, you know, with all this
- 8:56Speaker 6: Middle East news, it's actually somewhat mildly positive or credit spreads.
- 9:00Speaker 6: What happens is yields end up going higher, so the
- 9:04Speaker 6: bid from the byside, particularly out the curve goes up.
- 9:08Speaker 6: You can basically buy the same names at the same
- 9:11Speaker 6: or tighter spreads, but higher yields. So you're seeing some
- 9:15Speaker 6: of that today. So Amazon is tighter today, and even
- 9:18Speaker 6: names like SpaceX are trading tighter today. So this concept
- 9:21Speaker 6: that the large hyperscalers are not going to be able
- 9:25Speaker 6: to raise as much money as we say that they're
- 9:27Speaker 6: going to need, I think that's just sort of a
- 9:30Speaker 6: misnomer because it cost them a little bit more this
- 9:32Speaker 6: time than it did last time.
- 9:33Speaker 3: You mentioned SpaceX and Tom follows those bonds. Tom King
- 9:36Speaker 3: follows those bonds, and he's been noting that they've been
- 9:39Speaker 3: trading lower relative talk to us about how they've been trading.
- 9:43Speaker 6: Why, Well, it's the nomenclatures is important. So lowers, are
- 9:48Speaker 6: you talking about spreads or are you talking about price right,
- 9:50Speaker 6: because it's the opposite. So, you know, spreads on the
- 9:53Speaker 6: break widen twenty to twenty five basis points, and now
- 9:57Speaker 6: they've settled in, you know, a nickel or so tighter,
- 10:00Speaker 6: so they're in a much more narrow trading range. Again,
- 10:03Speaker 6: I think that these these these basis point moves are
- 10:06Speaker 6: reasonably small, and they're not telling a story that I
- 10:10Speaker 6: think we see across news, which is a news knows
- 10:13Speaker 6: bad news sells, and they put out the sky is falling,
- 10:16Speaker 6: and quite frankly, it just isn't. There's a deep bid
- 10:19Speaker 6: for SpaceX bonds, there's a bid for Oracle bonds, and
- 10:22Speaker 6: there's a bid for these double A hyperscaler bonds. It's
- 10:25Speaker 6: just at a little bit of an incremental cost over
- 10:27Speaker 6: what historically they had paid. And it makes sense. Part
- 10:30Speaker 6: of the SpaceX issue is that they're going to come back,
- 10:33Speaker 6: and they're going to come back again and again and again,
- 10:36Speaker 6: and people just need to position that. You know, if
- 10:38Speaker 6: you're a triple bing aame, you know, where should you
- 10:41Speaker 6: be traded? Well, they're trading inside of where Oracle is.
- 10:43Speaker 6: So all of a sudden, I think Oracle levels, which
- 10:45Speaker 6: are you know, thirty forty wider create a backstop where
- 10:48Speaker 6: I think SpaceX might be going.
- 10:50Speaker 5: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 10:52Speaker 2: Coming up after this.
- 10:56Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catchup live weekdays
- 11:01Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto
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- 11:07Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 11:11Speaker 2: Let's move over to the tech space here.
- 11:13Speaker 3: Apple chip deal with Broadcom expected to exceed thirty billion dollars.
- 11:18Speaker 2: Big move for Broadcam, big mood for Apples.
- 11:20Speaker 3: Check in with Ana rog Rana, senior tech analys for
- 11:22Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence, An Rock talk to us about this Apple deal.
- 11:27Speaker 7: Soon you look at it.
- 11:28Speaker 8: You know, at first, when we heard about this to
- 11:30Speaker 8: you a couple of days ago, you know, we thought
- 11:33Speaker 8: this would be something new. But it seems a little
- 11:35Speaker 8: bit like you know, similar smaller chips that they have
- 11:39Speaker 8: been buying from Broadcom for a while.
- 11:41Speaker 7: But I think the big portion is they are.
- 11:42Speaker 8: Being built in the US, are being manufactured in the US,
- 11:45Speaker 8: And I think that's really the big difference here because
- 11:48Speaker 8: you know, as we.
- 11:48Speaker 7: Know, most of these parts do come from Asia.
- 11:51Speaker 8: So this is the first part of the commitment Tim
- 11:54Speaker 8: Cook has made to President Trump that is going to.
- 11:56Speaker 7: Be buying more products in the US.
- 11:58Speaker 8: So I think that's the angle that's more important.
- 12:01Speaker 2: Now.
- 12:01Speaker 8: It is important from Broadcom's point of view because Broadcom
- 12:05Speaker 8: didn't make the modem for the iPhone and Apple's beIN
- 12:09Speaker 8: it's in housing that particular piece now that was not
- 12:12Speaker 8: good for it was a big overhand for Broadcom for
- 12:14Speaker 8: a while, but this deal for them says Apples still
- 12:17Speaker 8: going to them for other chips and other paths. So
- 12:20Speaker 8: it's a good deal more so for Broadcom and for Apple.
- 12:22Speaker 8: It's basically telling the President Trump that we are buying
- 12:26Speaker 8: more products in the US.
- 12:27Speaker 3: And broadcomstock is up three and a half percent today,
- 12:30Speaker 3: up about eleven percent year to date, you know, of
- 12:32Speaker 3: the trailing twelve months, up about forty one percent. So
- 12:34Speaker 3: it's been well received by the marketplace here. So how
- 12:38Speaker 3: does Apple think about it's supply chain these days? You know,
- 12:42Speaker 3: they've been working so hard since the pandemic and then
- 12:44Speaker 3: with President Trump's pressures to kind of rejiggerate supply chain.
- 12:49Speaker 2: Where are we in that process now on?
- 12:51Speaker 4: Right?
- 12:52Speaker 7: So people do?
- 12:53Speaker 8: I think they are doing the right thing in terms
- 12:54Speaker 8: of if you look at bill of materials of any
- 12:57Speaker 8: product of any big phone, the chip is a very
- 13:00Speaker 8: expensive part of it.
- 13:01Speaker 7: You really, I don't.
- 13:02Speaker 8: Think you can logically think about them trying to assemble
- 13:07Speaker 8: the phone.
- 13:08Speaker 7: You know, that's a very very low.
- 13:10Speaker 8: Cost product somewhere in the US, because it's not mathematically
- 13:14Speaker 8: economical for them, you know, let them do that portion
- 13:16Speaker 8: somewhere in Asia where they have the scale, low cost labor,
- 13:19Speaker 8: and the factories are already set up, but the expensive
- 13:22Speaker 8: parts can be made in the US if we have
- 13:25Speaker 8: funding from the government, if they are bigger factories that
- 13:27Speaker 8: do that kind of stuff, so that I think they're
- 13:29Speaker 8: going about it the right way. We've also heard from
- 13:32Speaker 8: our Kerman. Then there is a possibility that Apple may
- 13:35Speaker 8: work with Broadcom to do some.
- 13:36Speaker 7: AI server chips.
- 13:38Speaker 8: That's going to be actually a very expensive chip if
- 13:40Speaker 8: they gig if they actually go out and do that,
- 13:43Speaker 8: and that can be done in the US also, So
- 13:46Speaker 8: looking at the right part of the supply chain, the
- 13:48Speaker 8: more expensive parts being built, I think that's the right
- 13:51Speaker 8: way to look at it.
- 13:53Speaker 3: What do we know of the role of Tim Cook
- 13:56Speaker 3: these days? What is he doing and what's the folk
- 14:00Speaker 3: spream going forward?
- 14:00Speaker 1: Do you think?
- 14:02Speaker 8: I think going forward it's I think very clear in
- 14:04Speaker 8: the announcement that is going to make that he's going
- 14:06Speaker 8: to be, you know, making shore, taking care of some
- 14:09Speaker 8: of the government affairs, which to me means attending dinners
- 14:11Speaker 8: both in China and in the US with the respective
- 14:14Speaker 8: presidents or basically wherever the president wants him to go.
- 14:17Speaker 7: He will tag.
- 14:18Speaker 8: Along I mean, I think that's really something that.
- 14:20Speaker 7: Even in the first three months of President Drum's you.
- 14:23Speaker 8: Know, inauguration, he was not happy that Kim Cook was
- 14:26Speaker 8: not in one of the particular functions. But since then
- 14:29Speaker 8: he's been seen everywhere. So I think that's going to
- 14:31Speaker 8: be his legacy and work going forward.
- 14:34Speaker 2: And it's hugely valuable, no question about it.
- 14:37Speaker 3: That's the way a lot of CEOs have come to
- 14:40Speaker 3: the They've come to the conclusion that's the best way
- 14:41Speaker 3: to deal with this administration.
- 14:43Speaker 2: Any latest thoughts here on.
- 14:45Speaker 3: Microsoft, you know, it's you know, it goes to that
- 14:49Speaker 3: whole AI as a competitive threat to software broadly defined,
- 14:53Speaker 3: and I can get it for some companies, but boy,
- 14:56Speaker 3: it doesn't ring true for Microsoft.
- 14:58Speaker 2: They just seem to actually big of a mote. But
- 14:59Speaker 2: that's not what the market saying.
- 15:01Speaker 7: I think the market's a little bit worried about Capex.
- 15:03Speaker 8: We published a note yesterday saying that maybe they need
- 15:06Speaker 8: to lighten up a little bit on that narrative because
- 15:09Speaker 8: if you look at the valuation gap, now it's trading
- 15:12Speaker 8: at what less than twenty times earnings and that was
- 15:14Speaker 8: not the case. I think the valuation's down almost thirty
- 15:17Speaker 8: nine to forty percent over the last twelve months. And
- 15:20Speaker 8: I think a lot of art has to do with
- 15:22Speaker 8: the money they're going to spend. By our calculation, they're
- 15:25Speaker 8: going to hit closer two hundred and ninety billion by
- 15:27Speaker 8: calendar twenty twenty six. That's about fifty four percent on revenue,
- 15:30Speaker 8: and that number is going to go up next to year.
- 15:33Speaker 8: So you have to really think that you really need
- 15:35Speaker 8: to spend that much money down the road, especially when
- 15:38Speaker 8: you have a very profitable software business. It's okay to
- 15:41Speaker 8: give back on a little bit of revenue growth, but boy,
- 15:44Speaker 8: you do want to keep that free cash flow going
- 15:46Speaker 8: because that's what some of the investors are looking for.
- 15:49Speaker 3: Yet, you know, we had your credit colleague on earlier today,
- 15:53Speaker 3: Rob Shiftman from Bloomberg Intelligence, and he's basically saying, Hey,
- 15:56Speaker 3: my market's wide open. These guys can keep issuing debt
- 15:58Speaker 3: and build as much as they.
- 16:00Speaker 8: Well, the thing is, it's okay for Google to do
- 16:03Speaker 8: it because they have their own chips. Amazon it has
- 16:05Speaker 8: its own chip. I like that Microsoft is still behind
- 16:09Speaker 8: in that chip war. If Microsoft is able to come
- 16:11Speaker 8: up its own chip and create a data center where
- 16:14Speaker 8: they don't need to go out and.
- 16:15Speaker 7: Pay the in media tacks.
- 16:16Speaker 8: It's okay, but right now Microsoft chip is not at
- 16:19Speaker 8: that level that customers are running to them and say, well,
- 16:22Speaker 8: give me your AI workload, but on your chip.
- 16:24Speaker 7: So if you have to go.
- 16:25Speaker 8: Buy Invidio chips, which is sometimes half of the CAPEX
- 16:28Speaker 8: goes to in media, then you have to really think
- 16:30Speaker 8: about whether why why are you doing that?
- 16:32Speaker 2: Thirty seconds left? Do they have the ability? Do you
- 16:34Speaker 2: think they'll get their own chip at any time soon?
- 16:36Speaker 8: They have their own chip and it's working, but it's
- 16:39Speaker 8: not doesn't have the same customer preference as that what
- 16:42Speaker 8: we saw with Google TPUs or with Amazon.
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