Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / NVIDIA CRUSHES Expectations🔥Tech Boom Incoming🚀

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NVIDIA CRUSHES Expectations🔥Tech Boom Incoming🚀 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Nvidia earnings came in last night pretty hot. We'll break
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: it down for you guys today and give you some
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: insights as to how and if this will have an
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: impact on the crypto markets.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: You guys love it.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barre. Welcome back in a tech path.
• 0:19
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• 1:07
  Speaker 1: All right, I want to hit on a few points
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: here today and some of the things that were happening,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: you know, last night, of course, with Nvidia coming out
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: very strong, even though I think you know now, Wall
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Street is kind of in a position where their expectations
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: are just so high. It's kind of like a football team,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: you know, one of the that's doing really well and
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason, they're just not playing well. That's kind
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: of what Nvidia look like. So if you look at
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: it any other company, this would have the stock would
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: have been flying off the I think, off the shelves.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: But with this particular performance right now, which they just
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: posted their record Q two revenue of thirty billion and
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: exactly ten years ago, this is mind boggling to me.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Ten years ago they had a one point one billion
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: in quarterly revenue. They're thirty x ten years the quarter
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: over quarter there, which I think is pretty impressive. Compared
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: to one year ago, quarterly is up a whopping one
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty two percent. Can you imagine any business
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: out there same quarter last year being up over one
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty two percent. That would be a absolute
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: bar burning report for almost any corporation out there, this
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: of course a little bit different. Meanwhile, in Video announced
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: another fifty billion in a stock buyback program and expected
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: to be thirty two point five billion of revenue in
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the current quarter. That'll continue to climb, but it will
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: be on track for producing well over one hundred billion
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: in annual revenue.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: So all of this is good, it.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Is an absolute beast when it comes to the S
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: and P. How does this play out for the rest
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: of the markets. If you look at just the price
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: positions that many of the analysts are in Wall Street
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: are betting on. Morgan Stanley raised its target one fifty.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Bernstein raised the target to one fifty five from one thirty.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Wells Fargo raised Goldman Sack raise target to one thirty five.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: The one that I thought was kind of interesting, which
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: was fairly bullish on in Video as Bank of America Securities,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: who raise their talking to one sixty five. And if
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: you look at where this is trading right now, just quickly,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: we're trading at about one twenty a dip. Of course yesterday,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: I'm on the daily. Right now, if you go to
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the four hour on this, you can kind of see
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit of moment here, but also dipping down
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: into this order block right here around one hundred bucks.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know that we'll ever see that order block again,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: but maybe we will. The key here is is that
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: in Nvidia continues to perform. It's continuing to give upward
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: guidance to a lot of the Wall Street analysts, and
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: I think it's also starting to carry a lot of
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: companies on Now there's many people out there that argue
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: that it in Vidia could be at the end of
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: its rope. Now we've got a few clips here that
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I want to get into. This first clip is the
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: stock dropping even though the expectations were somewhat met.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Is there anything in the results or the guidance that
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: makes you rethink the pace of demand or the overall story.
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: It really doesn't. And you know, as you said, expectations
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: are high into the work. The magnitude of the beat
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: is a little bit less than what we've seen in
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: some quarters up it's about two and a half percent
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: over consensus for the guidance. But you know what was
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: clear is that that demand is still well ahead of supply.
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: Supply is still coming, and that's what's allowing revenue to grow.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: Then you know, from there it's a question of you know,
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: when when does this kind of get to maturity. And
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: the way that we're approaching it is, listen, we look
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: at the data points, we keep taking a look, you know,
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: one year at of time product cycles and at least
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: for this product cycle coming up, you know, demand is
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: is not being fully fulfilled by supply, and supply is
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: coming on, so that's giving a room for numbers to
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: go higher, and then content's coming up. And it's one
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: of the things that is now changed in the world
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: to semiconductors is that pricing goes up every year now
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: because it's more expensive to make these chips and you
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: need more transistors to drive that performance. And as long
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: as that's happening, the stock is going to continue to work.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So, as you can see, there's announced that are very
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: pro in VideA, and this is important because of its
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: impact on the rest of the markets, not only the
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: S and P but also just liquidity. And then of
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: course you have all of the AI related crypto projects,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: including cloud compute that we've talked about here before that
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: could have you know, kind of a spillover effect even
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: though we've seen a little bit of fall off on
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: some of those key assets. The key here is is
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: what is that long term play going out if Nvidia
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: is going to continue. This clip goes into the challenge
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: ahead for in Vidia.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: Take a look the company is it deserves to be
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: in whatever hall of fame we have for the technology industry,
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: because you know, you talked about a company that's businesses
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: primarily hardware. They have a ton of software now, but
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: it's primarily hardware, and they've gotten themselves to seventy five
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: percent gross markets on the back of generative AI and
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: a whole bunch of other really important trends. Because right now,
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: the issue that in Vidia faces, which I think is
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: going to be the issue faced by everyone in generative AI,
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: is that the promise of AI has gotten way out
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: in front of the results. Somebody somewhere along the way
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: needs to ask the question of how long do we
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: wait for enterprise applications to show productivity and value to customers,
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: because at the moment, copilot seems to have some difficulties
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: in that regard. I think it's there's a big promise
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: at companies like Salesforce that they still have to deliver,
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: and there are a lot of questions, and from an
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: investor point of view, I think caution is increasingly going
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: to be the watchword here because it doesn't matter how
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: good the chips are at in video. If you're talking
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: about replacing a trillion dollars worth of cloud services compute
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: over the next few years, I mean the SP five hundred.
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: The companies are mostly run by finance people. I mean
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: the chances they're going to write off a trillion dollars
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: worth of capital investment just so they can buy in
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: Vidia's new chips, I think that's that may be wishful thinking, all.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Right, So there's a lot to unpack there. I'm kind
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: of in the middle of the two positions, and the
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: reason is pretty clear. Remember that any cycle of new technology,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: there is the early learning curves. You know, he mentioned
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Copilot and some of the things in the efforts the
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: salesforce is doing.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: I don't necessarily even believe that.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Even the biggest companies out there are going to be
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: the ones that benefit the most out of this. I
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: think we're going to see a lot of these startups
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: that have already been growing in droves. Whether you see
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: that in open AI, perplexity claude. Any of the AI
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: tools that are basic consumer usable now today, the likelihoods
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: we'll see a ramp up in those services and most
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: likely we're going to see a huge move forward. Now
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: if you look at this article right here, same kind
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: of topic in video facing a looming test on the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: use of the chips. One of the things that he
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: states in the articles key issue is when the main
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: focus in AI moves from training and a large foundation
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: models that under modern AI systems to putting those models
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: into widespread use and applications used by large numbers. I
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: don't know about you, but almost every platform, I mean
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: any platform that I use online today has started to
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: implement AI.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: The likelihood is all of.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: These companies, and there are thousands, if not tens of
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: thousands of these companies globally that are all implementing the
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: same kind of strategies of just improving their tech stack
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: just a little bit to increase ease of use. And
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: it's going to happen in every industry out there. So
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: my argument is that maybe this is just the beginning
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: for Nvidia. Sure, the big monsters in the Big five,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: and you look at even the top one hundred tech
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: companies in the world. Maybe they aren't going to see
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: an immediate return, but I think that we're going to
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: see a much faster growth on AI because this is
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: only going to accelerate in terms of technology deployment. Now
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: you look at this statement right here, AI tokens have
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: started to dip. This of course is things like render
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: and near as in Vidia shatters earnings, but the expectations,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: this was kind of a sell the news reaction. If
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: you're trading these tokens in a way that you're just
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: flipping in and out of them, that's a different angle.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: But if you're looking at AI as a category to win,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: then it's much like if you believe in web three,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: or you look at deepen, or you look at meme coins,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: whatever it might be. In the crypto side of things,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: you do have to look at what is that long
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: term performance opportunity. Much like ethereum and Salana, you're looking
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: at a much more longer term opportunity. So I think
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: people were talking about Analysts noted that in Vidia's earnings,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: while strong, did not meet investors' lofty expectations, which is
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: kind of ridiculous in my opinion, But it was leading
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: to a sell the news event, and of course that
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: gets into the scenario around some of the crypto projects.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: But my opinion is that if we start to see
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: more of these dips, because we're not probably going to
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: see too many of these, it's very possible in video
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: could get a breakout quarter coming up very soon. Other
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: things I want to hit on right here is, of
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: course Bitcoin, how low could the price go? Many people
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: saying we could see a retest around fifty four k.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I'm still on the question mark of whether or not
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: we'll go that low. Recent correction from sixty five to
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: fifty eight further open the possibility of potential swipe of
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the recent lows. I think we saw that happen when
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: it went down fifty eight early this week and people
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: were kind of thinking, maybe this is the win. But
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: of course it restructured, and of course we saw around
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: sixty thousand kind of recover itself. And a couple other
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: things right here. If bitcoorn regains positive around sixty one one,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: this will be interesting because this will be a potentially
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: model for it could continue to establish a higher range
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: above sixty five. All of this is still sideways action.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: All of this is also still action in the summer
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: September and October, our months where we start, we could
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: start to see some movements, especially leading into the election,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: and I do believe we're going to see a little
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: bit of volatility going into the election, so be on
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: the lookout right now. Fear and greed setting at twenty nine,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: so people definitely in the camp of more fear, even
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: though I feel like this is one of those scenarios
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: where we've seen this over time. If you look at
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: last month, we were at a sixty seven same time
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: last week, still fear yesterday and then now holding, so
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: it has been declining. I think people are maybe in
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: that position right now just because some of the things
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: that are happening from a macro standpoint. But I have
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: some good news for you there. Bitcoin unlikely to rally
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: before the US elections. This is data that is kind
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: of pushing in on a couple of points right here.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I want to focus on seasonality effects in all markets,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: including bitcoin. Yes, twenty sixteen to twenty twenty, Bitcoin experienced
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: similar dips before the election, followed by a substantial post
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: election rally. There's a little bit of difference here, and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: when I think from a political landscape, from a legislative landscape,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: what's happening with the SEC right now, which we all know,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: as well as the global pressure. That's the big one
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: to me is the global pressure both from the EU
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: and also from bricks. But a lot of people are
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: looking at an uncertain outcome of election. Elections typically create
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: a risk averse environment. Many experts caution that correlation does
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: not necessarily imply causation. So you look at two things
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: that could be going in here, and I want you
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to We're going to have a video on this this
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: week where we're going to be talking with the Blockchain
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Association about one of these big topics, and that is
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the potential for possibly the GOP to win the Senate.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: If they get over that fifty one mark in the Senate,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: there is a good possibility where we could see a
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: lot of very regardless of who wins the presidency, but
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: we could see some very good advancement on blockchain projects,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: including the fit bill, stable coin, as well as other things,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: as long as we don't get into, you know, kind
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: of a fight with the president. If Kamala is to win,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: we'll see and that would just be into a scenario
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: that we could be dealing with some veto scenarios.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Donald J.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Trump, of course, is putting out a very interesting video
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: called World Liberty FI. It's just a short on it,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and they're talking about kind of the democratization of finance
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: and what we've been able to find on this. We
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: reported on this a couple of weeks ago. But if
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: you look at some of the moves that and this
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: is not his project, but I guess it's his family's project,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: more so his son's project. But Eric Trump is the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: organization's executive vice president and the former president's son. He's
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: already revealed the plans for this World Liberty Financial project,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: which we think is going to be a digital real
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: estate It's not totally sure, but possibly a real world
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: asset tokenization model which could allow users to lend and
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: borrow on the platform. That would be pretty significant. And
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: this could be one of those scenarios worlworal world assets
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: could get. Maybe this is the one that makes it
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: somewhat outside of the traditionals in terms of token is securities,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: but getting into true assets like real estate. So I
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: don't know. We're going to watch this one really closely
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: see how it plays out. I mean, this also could
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: be interesting timing for Trump to kind of continue to
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: double down. Remember, with RFK joining the campaign, he's bringing
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: in another pro crypto candidate, which is only going to
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: help bolster his position.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: There.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: While all of that is happening, you've got Gary Gensler
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: is helping Donald Trump, or some people believe that it's
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: almost as if Gensler is actively trying to secure the
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: presidency for Donald Trump. Obviously, the point being is that
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: if you piss enough voters off, especially that in a
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: camp and in an administration who has been anti crypto
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: as much as the Biden Harris administration has, then yeah,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: you're going to lose votes. And right now I think
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: we are in a position where any vote could sway
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: the election. So it is a big factor for the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: SEC to be putting this kind of pressure on Opense,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: which is thousands of projects, millions and millions of asset holders.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Here's Eleanor Tarrett. So Gary Gesler's regulation by informant crusade
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: against the crypto industry remains alive and well. In the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: debt of summer, it looks like he's trying to get
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: them all in before November. So maybe he senses something
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Here, of course, was a statement that
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: I thought was interesting by Hester Pearce, one of the commissioners.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: She says her partly and blame for how commission has
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: interpreted the HOWI tests when it comes to crypto. I
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: blame myself in part for that something I could have
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: done differently as helping with more legal clarity, and it's
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: a cautionary tarill for other regulars.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, I get this at the time.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I mean I'm a little bit sideways with Hester Paris
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: right now, only in the sense that I mean, you're
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a commissioner. Yeah, I know you're not a decision maker,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: but you definitely are a contributor.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: And then the ability to.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Be able to just come, you know, have that kind
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: of conversation with the rest of the commissioners on an
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: ongoing basis, I think you have to really drill down
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: on that. If you believe in digital assets, then you
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: have to kind of stand up for your position. Polymarket
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: is holding Trump still at about a fifty to forty eight.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Kamala has dropped slightly. I think this again is getting
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: back into some of her policies, everything from unrealized capital
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: gains tax, which is now going to be in the
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: policy for people I know, for I know everybody's going
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: to say we'll PAU. That's for people over one hundred million.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: I want you to think about that for a second.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Over one hundred million is one thing. But if people
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: over one hundred million have means, and the means is
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: probably either exit, exit the companies, exit the assets. And
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: at once those are done, who do you think they're
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: coming for next? You know, because that's not just going
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: to stop there once they soak that group, They're coming
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: for the next groups down, which will be everybody probably
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: over a million, so that may and that includes a
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: home you might be living in right now.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Unrealized assets so just be thinking about that.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Now are on the way. But what does this mean
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: for stocks? We will see a quarter point in September.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Over the last seventy years, large cap and small cap
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: stocks were returned about a fifteen percent to twenty six
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: percent on the average. With a twelve month within the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: first rate cut, we could see these small caps and
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the large caps really start to see a number that
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: is going to be interesting. And there's two reasons why.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: One is our GDP growth and if we can somehow
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: snake out of this situation with jobs, and I've got
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: a couple of things here that play into it. I
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: want to show you something though, with the recession occurred
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: in two thousand and seven, that was the last real
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: one performance was significantly worse S and P and the
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Russell we're falling like twenty four and sixteen after the twelve's.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: That was a different scenario, I think than what we're
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: in now. It's not near as bad, but in one
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: the recession with small camps substantially outperformed and gain two.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I think that recession is actually much more similar. And
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: of course that was the top bomb recession. So if
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: the FED can avoid it, then history is probably going
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: to be pointing to the upside. If you look back
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: at the two thousand and one recession, so that may
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: be a factor playing into this. And then if you
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: look at the GDP, GDP beat estimates, so we're up
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: three percent in Q two versus a two point eight expected,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: So that's a good thing because that means consumer spending
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: is stronger. But right now, yes, people are putting it
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: on credit cards. That's the big factor here. And there
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: are a couple things that kind of separate this, and
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: it's I think it's kind of a bad I'll explain
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: it in a second. It's kind of a bad situation
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: that it's putting Americans into. But if you're an investor
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: right now and you're watching our show, you're probably going
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: to be on the upside to this. But there are
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: some bad things that are happening. One is this right here.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Credit card debt is continuing to rise, and you know,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the big thing here is that it's starting to hit
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: the part of the economy that is much poorer. And
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: if you look at right now total credit card balances,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: I wanted to focus in on that right here. Let
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: me zoom in on that rose almost six percent from
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: a year ago to one point one four trilling. Remember
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: not barely a month ago it had just clipped a trillion.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: So we're already up another fourteen percent on the overall
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: death that's out there. And if you look at two
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: things on the GDP growth in the second quarter, stronger
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: domestic economy could be on track for a soft landing.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: If that happens, we get a soft landing, and then
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: you have this going on right here, lower income American
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: households now are basically running out of money. So you've
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: got a lot of people who are going to be
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: pushed very hard. And I want you to think about
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: this from a political landscape, because if the Harris campaign
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: continues to press hard on taxes from the riche, it's
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: possible they may win that poor poorer vote and it's
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: very possible that they could push people into more crypto.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: And I think where the real challenge is how many
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: crypto investors are there that are struggling with their household
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: because of FIAT and maybe are considering a crypto position
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: as a better strategy. And then you would be looking
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: at the Trump side of things. So this is going
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: to get very interesting because there's going to be a
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: lot of psychobabble.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: I think that starts to play out here. As I said, if.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: You guys are not part of the diamond circle, make
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: sure and jump in on that. Also, make sure to
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: follow me out there on X at Paul Baron. We'll
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: catch you next time right here on tech Path