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Actually, it is about me: Trump’s wild midterm gamble · The Front

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: From The Australian, here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Monday, September 7, 2026. Just eight weeks until the
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: midterm elections and Donald Trump is switching strategy, asking his
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  Speaker 1: base to vote Republican as if his own name were
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: on the ballot. As the Iran war sends cost of
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  Speaker 1: living spiralling, Will voters buy his claim that America is winning?
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  Speaker 1: That's today's story.
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  Speaker 2: Now that we have it under USA control, should we
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  Speaker 2: change the name Hormuz Strait to Trump Strait?
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: This is Guess Who on Truth Social. We've used AI
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: to bring Donald Trump's words to life.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Like America itself, it would be hotter than ever before.
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  Speaker 3: The Donald certainly likes changing waterways.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.
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  Speaker 3: I think we've got Lake America instead of Lake Ontario,
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  Speaker 3: the Gulf of America, so why not Trump Strait?
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is claiming victory in the Strait of Hormuz
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  Speaker 1: for now the countless time. He's done this a few
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  Speaker 1: times before and declared that he has achieved his war
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  Speaker 1: goals in Iran, although the war just seems to keep
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  Speaker 1: going and going.
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  Speaker 2: I can say tonight that we are on track to
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  Speaker 2: complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We're
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  Speaker 2: going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where
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  Speaker 2: they belonged.
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  Speaker 1: What is the pressure on Trump now to bring some
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  Speaker 1: sort of conclusion to this conflict?
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  Speaker 3: Well, Claire, strangely enough, the pressure on Trump to do
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  Speaker 3: that is a little less than it was. It was
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  Speaker 3: certainly much stronger a month or two ago. And the
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  Speaker 3: reason why is because, of course, Trump is very concerned
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  Speaker 3: that he'll be damaged. The Republican Party will be damaged
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  Speaker 3: politically by this war in the November 3rd midterm congressional
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  Speaker 3: elections coming up in the United States. The polls show
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  Speaker 3: that the Republicans might lose the two houses they now hold,
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  Speaker 3: the House of Representatives and the Senate. American voters are
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  Speaker 3: very upset by a 35% rise in gas prices. This
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  Speaker 3: is an unpopular war. 63% of Americans don't support the war.
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  Speaker 3: The U.S.
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  Speaker 1: And Israeli war with Iran has caused a rare rift
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  Speaker 1: among conservatives, with several influential figures on the right condemning
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  Speaker 1: the war in its early days.
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  Speaker 3: So look, Trump has been very concerned about that backlash.
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  Speaker 3: But the truth of it is now, with only two
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  Speaker 3: months to go, That is pretty much baked in. There's
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  Speaker 3: not much that Donald Trump can do about this because
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  Speaker 3: there's nothing he can do in the conflict that is
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  Speaker 3: going to suddenly cause global oil prices to collapse. He
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  Speaker 3: can't find an easy victory. He can't get out of
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  Speaker 3: the war. We know that. He is trapped in this
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  Speaker 3: conflict for the time being. So in a strange way,
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  Speaker 3: the worst that could happen to Donald Trump is going
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  Speaker 3: to happen. And I think the White House knows this.
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  Speaker 3: And so they're changing tack.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, Trump's approval rating is low, very low for his presidency.
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  Speaker 1: It's kind of at the lowest point that it has been,
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  Speaker 1: around 34 or 35% approval for how he's doing the
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  Speaker 1: job as president. But he's still the biggest advantage that
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  Speaker 1: the Republicans have gotten. In fact, he's urging voters to
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  Speaker 1: cast their ballots as if they were voting for Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump in these midterms. That's an interesting strategy. Is that
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  Speaker 1: just about Trump's own perception of himself, or is it
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  Speaker 1: really an advantage for the Republicans?
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  Speaker 3: It's a good question because Donald Trump initially said, I'm
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  Speaker 3: not involved in this. When things were going really bad
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  Speaker 3: in Iran, he was saying, I'm not involved in this.
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  Speaker 3: It's not to do with me. It's not a vote
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  Speaker 3: about me. Now he's changing tack. So he obviously believes
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  Speaker 3: that his personality is going to be on the ballot
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  Speaker 3: and it's a beneficial one, which is interesting because, as
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  Speaker 3: you say, the polls don't support that. But, you know, this,
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  Speaker 3: of course, midterms are always a referendum to do with
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  Speaker 3: the president. of the day, and almost always, because they're
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  Speaker 3: two years into a four-year term, Claire, it's a good
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  Speaker 3: excuse for voters to protest. And we almost always see
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  Speaker 3: a backlash against a sitting president, regardless of who that
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  Speaker 3: president is, and we're going to see it against Trump.
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  Speaker 1: Trump's tendency to suggest naming things after himself tells us
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  Speaker 1: that he's very interested in legacy. He can't run for
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  Speaker 1: president again, I mean, unless he surprises us all and
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  Speaker 1: tries something that would be against the Constitution. But it's intriguing,
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  Speaker 1: isn't it, that he wants to leave the Republicans in power.
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  Speaker 1: Does that suggest he's become more about the party than
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  Speaker 1: about just himself?
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  Speaker 3: I don't think so. I think Donald Trump sees a
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  Speaker 3: lot of this stuff through the lens of vindication of
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  Speaker 3: his own performance. I think he would see the Republicans
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  Speaker 3: getting walloped in November. He would see as a black
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  Speaker 3: eye on his own performance. I think he would be
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  Speaker 3: embarrassed by it. At the same time, any good outcome,
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  Speaker 3: any good result by the Republicans, he'd see as a victory.
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  Speaker 3: It's interesting, I mean, because, of course, if the Republicans
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  Speaker 3: lose both houses of Congress, Claire, he becomes technically a
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  Speaker 3: lame duck. But I think he would be one of
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  Speaker 3: the least lame duck presidents we've ever seen. The reason
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  Speaker 3: why is because Donald Trump loves executive power. He does
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  Speaker 3: a lot more than any other president without the approval
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  Speaker 3: of Congress, including going to war with Iran.
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  Speaker 2: This is a significant move here from President Trump. Yesterday,
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  Speaker 2: he notified lawmakers that he actually doesn't need congressional approval
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  Speaker 2: for the war in Iran.
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  Speaker 3: So I think we'd still see a fairly much unleashed
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  Speaker 3: Donald Trump, even if the Republicans lost the Congress.
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  Speaker 1: What is there left for him to do now? And
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  Speaker 1: what do you think in the final two years of
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  Speaker 1: his presidency he would be focusing on?
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  Speaker 3: Look, I think Iran... is the biggest thing he is
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  Speaker 3: focused on, because I think that is the conflict that
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  Speaker 3: he may see as being the ball and chain of
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  Speaker 3: his legacy, in the same way that Iran was Jimmy
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  Speaker 3: Carter's ball and chain. I think that that's what Trump
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  Speaker 3: is worried about. I think he wants to see a
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  Speaker 3: way to get a long-term, if not a victory, then
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  Speaker 3: certainly an honourable exit from this conflict. And that is
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  Speaker 3: going to take many months at this point in time.
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  Speaker 1: The regime has proved to be a much harder nut
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  Speaker 1: to crack than Trump anticipated. I mean, the beginning of
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  Speaker 1: this year, he was urging Iranians to come out in
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  Speaker 1: the street to kind of take names and warning the
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  Speaker 1: regime that if they punished their citizens for protesting, there
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  Speaker 1: would be consequences for them. Of course, that didn't happen.
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  Speaker 1: And thousands of people have been executed by the regime
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  Speaker 1: or just killed on the streets as a result of
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  Speaker 1: trying to exercise some sort of protest. Iranian people are
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  Speaker 1: more oppressed probably than they ever were. Do you think
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  Speaker 1: Trump sees some kind of chinks in the regime's armour though?
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  Speaker 3: I think Trump sees the potential to really economically isolate
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  Speaker 3: the regime in a way that it hasn't done that before.
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  Speaker 3: There's two factors that's clear. One is that oil is
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  Speaker 3: now starting to go through the Strait of Hormuz to
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  Speaker 3: some degree with all these tankers going through without their
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  Speaker 3: transponders on. The Bloomberg reported this week that oil flows
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  Speaker 3: through the Strait are now two-thirds of what they were
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  Speaker 3: before the war. So it's not cataclysmic economically for Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 3: for the global economy, in the way that many people
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  Speaker 3: thought it would be. But at the same time, the
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  Speaker 3: US has a very effective blockade on Iranian ports. And
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  Speaker 3: so Iran cannot export its own oil. We're seeing 70%
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  Speaker 3: inflation rate, massive unemployment rate in Iran. The currency is
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  Speaker 3: worth almost zero. I mean, the Iranian economy is in tatters.
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  Speaker 3: And Trump's idea is to just keep putting that long-term
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  Speaker 3: pressure on in the hope that eventually it implodes.
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  Speaker 1: We've seen some vision of Iran's new supreme leader, whose
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  Speaker 1: father was killed in the initial round of strikes, seeming
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  Speaker 1: to hide parts of his body from the camera. He's
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  Speaker 1: certainly not seeming to be a particularly robust kind of person.
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  Speaker 1: What do we know about who the regime is now
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  Speaker 1: and how undiminished they actually are?
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  Speaker 3: It's a great question because so many outside observers, including
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  Speaker 3: US intelligence agencies, Western intelligence agencies, frequently get this wrong.
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  Speaker 3: We don't know. But what we are seeing visibly are
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  Speaker 3: some cracks here, Claire. We're seeing a band of moderates
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  Speaker 3: led by the president and the foreign minister, the speaker
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  Speaker 3: of their parliament, and the non-moderates, which is the Islamic
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  Speaker 3: Revolutionary Guard Corps. And we are seeing those moderates pushing
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  Speaker 3: for a diplomatic resolution. I think they see that the
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  Speaker 3: long-term problem with the Iranian economy is such that it
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  Speaker 3: could eventually trigger the thing they most fear, which is
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  Speaker 3: not America, but internal dissent and being overthrown internally. The
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  Speaker 3: Guard Corps is much more intent on challenging America, challenging
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  Speaker 3: the West, and having their revolutionary aims achieved through force.
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  Speaker 3: So we are seeing a split, and that is something
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  Speaker 3: which the Americans are clearly trying to do their best
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  Speaker 3: to increase that divide.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, what about the nations caught in the middle?
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  Speaker 1: At the beginning of this conflict, when Iran started firing
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  Speaker 1: on the Gulf states, on US military assets in those
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  Speaker 1: Persian Gulf monarchies that are much more Western-oriented than, say, Iran,
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  Speaker 1: it seemed like we might be seeing the start of
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  Speaker 1: some new allegiances. Where is that now? Can we still
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  Speaker 1: say that the Persian Gulf states are inching closer towards
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  Speaker 1: the American position than they were before?
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  Speaker 3: I think the Gulf states are just trying to keep
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  Speaker 3: very quiet and very neutral at the moment. The thing
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  Speaker 3: they most fear is another escalation in the conflict, which
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  Speaker 3: of course brings Iran to attack their infrastructure or US
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  Speaker 3: forces on their soil. And that's what they don't want.
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  Speaker 3: Every single time, in fact, this week with those big
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  Speaker 3: flare-ups we saw, tit-for-tat strikes again for the first time
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  Speaker 3: in a month or so, the Gulf states were very vocal,
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  Speaker 3: very early, saying, let's stop this, let's calm down, because
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  Speaker 3: they're the ones who get hit in the crossfire, if
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  Speaker 3: you like. They are clearly very upset with Iran for
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  Speaker 3: Iran's provocative attacks on them. But, you know, whether we
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  Speaker 3: see the long-term down the track, them renegotiating US troop
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  Speaker 3: presence in their own countries to try and protect them
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  Speaker 3: from any future conflict would be an interesting question.
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  Speaker 1: And where is all this left Israel camp? I mean,
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  Speaker 1: this is nearly a full year of war in a
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  Speaker 1: new theater, Iran versus the United States and versus Israel.
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  Speaker 1: Has Israel benefited from the strikes on Iran by the
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  Speaker 1: weakening of the regime, as you mentioned?
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely. I mean, the Iranian regime, no matter what anyone says,
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  Speaker 3: is very weakened from what it once was. Its military
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  Speaker 3: is decimated. Its economy is much weaker. The nuclear program
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  Speaker 3: it had has completely stopped at the moment because it's
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: been bombed into, not oblivion like Trump said, but it
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  Speaker 3: has been bombed into a point where it's not progressing
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  Speaker 3: in any way. So look, the Iranian regime is weak,
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  Speaker 3: and as you say, they've lost leaders as well, but
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  Speaker 3: it is still standing. It can still fire missiles. It's
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  Speaker 3: still a threat to Israel, but it's less of a threat,
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  Speaker 3: and Israel would like that, even though the government of
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  Speaker 3: Israel clearly wants to go further with Iran, and that's
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  Speaker 3: something they're not going to do unilaterally without the Americans
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  Speaker 3: at this point.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart, thank you very much.
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  Speaker 2: Pleasure.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's Chief International Correspondent.