Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - What If 9/11 Never Happened? + College Football Playoff Reaction
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- 1:46Speaker 1: to my I guess you could call it the third
- 1:50Speaker 1: what If episode, although it was I gave you a
- 1:52Speaker 1: two parter in the first what if of this holiday season,
- 1:56Speaker 1: which was the twenty twenty what ifs. I knew, we
- 1:59Speaker 1: knew there'd be a lot of them. Everybody wanted to
- 2:01Speaker 1: go through them, and it was necessary, but it was
- 2:04Speaker 1: a really healthy exercise. I hope you got I got
- 2:07Speaker 1: a lot out of it, and you know, the big conclusion,
- 2:11Speaker 1: as I said, before for me and I still am
- 2:13Speaker 1: carrying this is just how much Biden's presidency essentially got
- 2:18Speaker 1: completely changed in the post election environment, right and more so,
- 2:25Speaker 1: you know, I think the initial motivation for doing the
- 2:28Speaker 1: what if on twenty twenty was, you know, how different
- 2:31Speaker 1: was would Trump two point zero b as a continuation
- 2:34Speaker 1: of his first term versus with the And there's no
- 2:37Speaker 1: doubt it is. There are a lot of large differences,
- 2:41Speaker 1: and there certainly I think would be there would be
- 2:44Speaker 1: less upheaval. I think that was the But I really think,
- 2:49Speaker 1: I really think what turned out to be an underrated
- 2:51Speaker 1: part of the what if it was doing the other
- 2:54Speaker 1: what if, which is what if Trump had conceded gracefully?
- 2:58Speaker 1: How much that would have ended the era of Trump
- 3:01Speaker 1: right then? Because we know how those worlds plays in
- 3:05Speaker 1: some ways. Trump's own personal instinct of his fear of
- 3:10Speaker 1: being sort of eradicated from history or filed into the
- 3:14Speaker 1: dustbin of history, you know, his need to not be
- 3:18Speaker 1: erased is so great that he sort of almost singularly
- 3:22Speaker 1: created a new timeline for himself. And it was very
- 3:26Speaker 1: impactful both on the Biden presidency itself and of course
- 3:29Speaker 1: Trump two point zero. So there's no doubt, you know,
- 3:32Speaker 1: when you it's an interesting I think you look. There's
- 3:39Speaker 1: no overrating Trump's initial victory in twenty sixteen. But in
- 3:43Speaker 1: some ways the changes Trump is making to the presidency
- 3:49Speaker 1: to our politics are more impactful, not because of his
- 3:53Speaker 1: twenty sixteen election but because of his twenty twenty loss
- 3:56Speaker 1: and his behavior around it. Anyway, it is apascitating. So
- 4:00Speaker 1: in that spirit, the other big what if that got
- 4:03Speaker 1: a ton of requests sort of like even you know
- 4:07Speaker 1: people would submit it, which was a what if nine
- 4:09Speaker 1: to eleven hadn't happened? Meaning and really the more realistic
- 4:12Speaker 1: version of this is what if we had stopped it?
- 4:14Speaker 1: Which we were very close, right, we could have easily seen.
- 4:18Speaker 1: You know, we learned a lot lesson about stove piping
- 4:21Speaker 1: of intelligence, but you know, the bread crumbs were there
- 4:24Speaker 1: if we were looking, if we knew to look for
- 4:25Speaker 1: those bread crumbs, about the Saudi citizens going to fight
- 4:31Speaker 1: schools and all of that. So and sure it looks
- 4:35Speaker 1: easy to see. Oh that needle in that haystack was
- 4:38Speaker 1: so easy to see. How did they miss it? Or
- 4:42Speaker 1: it's possible maybe Bill Clinton gets bin laden when he
- 4:45Speaker 1: takes the shot at him back in ninety eight during
- 4:48Speaker 1: the middle of the Lewinski thing. So we're going to
- 4:51Speaker 1: dive into that, because I do think what's interesting about
- 4:55Speaker 1: nine to eleven was it's is that it you know,
- 5:01Speaker 1: there was a phrase that got said all the time.
- 5:03Speaker 1: Nine to eleven changed everything, and it did change a
- 5:06Speaker 1: lot of things, And so I think it is hard
- 5:09Speaker 1: to try to figure out the counterfactual of what would
- 5:13Speaker 1: have happened without nine to eleven. What does Bush presidency
- 5:16Speaker 1: look like with No. Nine to eleven? What does the
- 5:18Speaker 1: Democratic Party look like with No. Nine to eleven? You know,
- 5:23Speaker 1: and what does the media world look like with No.
- 5:26Speaker 1: Nine to eleven? And I'm going to get to that
- 5:29Speaker 1: in a few minutes. So look, to start out, I
- 5:39Speaker 1: think it's a way to say this, nine to eleven
- 5:41Speaker 1: didn't just change what we covered. It also changed how
- 5:44Speaker 1: we consumed information, and in some ways, I think we're
- 5:49Speaker 1: going to discover it accelerated sort of the attention, the
- 5:54Speaker 1: the the importance of the intention economy, because you know
- 6:03Speaker 1: what nine to eleven did to our psyche as a country, right,
- 6:06Speaker 1: we always felt, you know, look, the only time we
- 6:09Speaker 1: were attacked before then really was Pearl Harbor Hawhy wouldn't
- 6:13Speaker 1: even a state when that happened. We've never been truly
- 6:17Speaker 1: hit on the homeland, right on the continental United States. Yes,
- 6:22Speaker 1: there had been a bomb, a bombing of the World
- 6:25Speaker 1: Trade Center in eighteen ninety three, and we've certainly had
- 6:27Speaker 1: our sheriff terrorist attacks and hijackings. We had the Oklahoma
- 6:31Speaker 1: City bombing, which was domestic terrorism. So it's not as
- 6:34Speaker 1: if we didn't have these things. But this was a
- 6:38Speaker 1: what a form sort of a non state foreign power
- 6:42Speaker 1: right in Al Qaeda, and it really rattled our psyche
- 6:47Speaker 1: because it we were suddenly our vulnerabilities just showed up everywhere,
- 6:54Speaker 1: and we realized how vulnerable we were to essentially asymmetric warfare,
- 6:59Speaker 1: how vulnerable we could be to terrorism. I mean, I
- 7:02Speaker 1: know my feeling on October one, two thousand and one,
- 7:06Speaker 1: was that Washington, DC was going to feel like Tel
- 7:08Speaker 1: Aviv in the eighties and nineties, where you just or
- 7:11Speaker 1: even Berlin back then, you just sort of had to
- 7:13Speaker 1: accept the premise that there were going to be more attacks.
- 7:17Speaker 1: The most remarkable thing that happened post nine to eleven
- 7:21Speaker 1: is what didn't happen post nine eleven, right, And the
- 7:25Speaker 1: point was is that I think it was our own
- 7:27Speaker 1: Why did we feel why did I feel that way?
- 7:29Speaker 1: Why did we all feel like we were so vulnerable?
- 7:32Speaker 1: Because that initial sense of oh my god, they turned
- 7:35Speaker 1: our own systems against us, right the airline are you know,
- 7:39Speaker 1: domestic airplanes something any of us could have been on.
- 7:43Speaker 1: And so it really had a psychological impact on us
- 7:47Speaker 1: as a society. So what happened we sort of we
- 7:50Speaker 1: sort of clung to information. Right, It's what really turned
- 7:53Speaker 1: the three news channels into twenty four hour Like, if
- 7:58Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, not all the channels programmed twenty four
- 8:01Speaker 1: hours a day. After nine to eleven, there was an
- 8:03Speaker 1: intensity to program twenty four hours a day. I was
- 8:06Speaker 1: at the hotline at the time. We added publications. We
- 8:10Speaker 1: called something we added something called Hotline World Extra because
- 8:14Speaker 1: we were just all so consumed with this network of
- 8:17Speaker 1: terrorists that we're just going to hobble societies all over
- 8:22Speaker 1: the world. And we certainly, you know, all of us
- 8:25Speaker 1: got a lesson in in extremism, in general religious extremism.
- 8:31Speaker 1: So it was the point being is that we we
- 8:35Speaker 1: really it changed, it changed our own psyche and I
- 8:40Speaker 1: and that's so in doing this, what I've exercised, I'm
- 8:43Speaker 1: going to do my best here. It is really hard.
- 8:48Speaker 1: This turned out to be a much harder attempt at
- 8:50Speaker 1: what I'm going to What I was trying to do
- 8:52Speaker 1: is is it's my way of saying, like I said before,
- 8:55Speaker 1: I'm there's gonna be a lot more questions asked than
- 8:57Speaker 1: definitive takes. I'm gonna have some theories of directionally where
- 9:02Speaker 1: we could have come. But I want that initial underscoring
- 9:08Speaker 1: of just the real impact of nine to eleven was
- 9:11Speaker 1: psychological on us, and in some ways a question that
- 9:17Speaker 1: I want that I'm pursued throughout this what if exercise
- 9:21Speaker 1: that I put together was how much of our information
- 9:25Speaker 1: ecosystem problems of today began with both our desire for
- 9:35Speaker 1: more information constantly frankly to make us feel better because
- 9:38Speaker 1: we felt so unsafe and insecure. And when you do,
- 9:41Speaker 1: you're just constantly seeking more information. Right if you've ever
- 9:44Speaker 1: been prepared for a snowstorm or a hurricane, and you
- 9:48Speaker 1: know a big storm is coming but you hadn't hit yet,
- 9:51Speaker 1: and you're waiting, what do you do? You keep looking
- 9:53Speaker 1: for more information. You want a more detailed forecast, more
- 9:56Speaker 1: detailed what if scenario is basically because it's really your
- 10:00Speaker 1: own survival instinct. It's human nature where the more information
- 10:03Speaker 1: we have, the more we think in our own heads,
- 10:05Speaker 1: we can plan for our survival in these things. So
- 10:08Speaker 1: I cannot underscore how that is the through line for
- 10:13Speaker 1: me that I think that this is, this is what
- 10:18Speaker 1: what sort of really changes changes things because and there
- 10:23Speaker 1: are some things that I don't think change at all,
- 10:26Speaker 1: the dot com bubble, things like that. So let's start
- 10:29Speaker 1: with the America of two thousand. That keeps breathing is
- 10:32Speaker 1: probably the best way to put it. We're still so
- 10:36Speaker 1: we're living in this post Cold War home. There is
- 10:40Speaker 1: concern at this point it's early odts. There is there's
- 10:44Speaker 1: been a transition in Russian leadership. Is this guy Putin
- 10:48Speaker 1: going to be you know, a small D democrat or not?
- 10:54Speaker 1: And the keeping Russia in the West was a priority
- 11:02Speaker 1: before nine to eleven I think would have stayed a
- 11:05Speaker 1: priority with Bush two under that scenario, I don't know
- 11:10Speaker 1: whether it succeeds or not. Right, if Putin is who
- 11:13Speaker 1: he is, which we now, if you know, you know,
- 11:17Speaker 1: I don't know if anything in the relationship changes Putin. Right.
- 11:21Speaker 1: The question I have is when does you know, by
- 11:26Speaker 1: two thousand and eight Putin's invading Georgia, which in some
- 11:31Speaker 1: ways was the precursor to Ukraine First Crime in twenty fourteen.
- 11:34Speaker 1: In that, does that accelerate, does that get delayed? Does
- 11:41Speaker 1: the you know, our focus on all things nine to
- 11:44Speaker 1: eleven and Islamic terrorism and domestic security, which then took
- 11:49Speaker 1: our eye off the ball a little bit of European security,
- 11:52Speaker 1: of keeping Russia in the west, of sort of these
- 11:56Speaker 1: fledgling Eastern European democracies. I think it's fair to say
- 12:01Speaker 1: that that probably is the biggest you know that and
- 12:07Speaker 1: bringing China along, right, because at this point everybody's very
- 12:11Speaker 1: bullish on China. In early two thousand, late nineties, there
- 12:14Speaker 1: wasn't a huge difference between Gore and Bush and that
- 12:18Speaker 1: two thousand campaign on China. It was a little bit
- 12:21Speaker 1: of rhetoric, but not too much. Essentially, both were were institutionalists.
- 12:26Speaker 1: Both were believers that, hey, bringing economic opening, the opening
- 12:33Speaker 1: the China economy will ultimately be good for democracy, good
- 12:37Speaker 1: for freedom, et cetera. So there was a bipartisan consensus
- 12:43Speaker 1: in China, which we now know we all got wrong. Right,
- 12:46Speaker 1: There was this bipartisan consensus that China, that essentially we
- 12:49Speaker 1: were going to be able to bring China along and
- 12:52Speaker 1: eventually the communism Communist Party would break there because of
- 13:00Speaker 1: middle class demands for the state, et cetera, et cetera.
- 13:03Speaker 1: None of that has turned out to be true. China
- 13:06Speaker 1: was able to somehow bring the country into a controlled
- 13:12Speaker 1: market economy. It's not a free market, but it's a
- 13:15Speaker 1: it is sort of they got into it right, and
- 13:20Speaker 1: we let them in because of the desire to get
- 13:24Speaker 1: American businesses into China. So I do think that we're
- 13:30Speaker 1: sort of pursuing and it's much more front and center
- 13:33Speaker 1: this bringing China along, you know, and maybe there's maybe
- 13:37Speaker 1: there's more of that. I do think, by the way,
- 13:40Speaker 1: George W. Bush's presidency was going to be much more
- 13:43Speaker 1: focused on the Western hemisphere pre nine to eleven. Here
- 13:46Speaker 1: was a guy, and we probably try to attempt some
- 13:49Speaker 1: massive immigration reform sooner in the Bush presidency, easily that happens,
- 13:55Speaker 1: I think in Bush one. In the first term. I
- 13:59Speaker 1: don't know if there's a second, right, we don't know
- 14:01Speaker 1: what the second term is over. It's probably over the
- 14:03Speaker 1: economy in some form or another, because most elections are
- 14:10Speaker 1: unless there is something essentially overwhelming the economic issue in America,
- 14:16Speaker 1: which sometimes it's war in the war in Iraq nine eleven.
- 14:19Speaker 1: Those are types of stories that do that. But I
- 14:25Speaker 1: do think I go back to the information ecosystem. You know,
- 14:30Speaker 1: nine to eleven happened nine months after the delayed two
- 14:34Speaker 1: thousand election, and I do think that without nine to eleven,
- 14:42Speaker 1: we're probably in a much more polarized political environment in Washington.
- 14:46Speaker 1: We cannot forget that there's still a lot of Democrats
- 14:50Speaker 1: who don't accept that Bush one Farnce Square. After nine
- 14:54Speaker 1: to eleven, those you know that none of that became mainstream, right.
- 15:00Speaker 1: Al Gore is a bigger figure inside the Democratic Party
- 15:04Speaker 1: pre nine eleven than he is post nine to eleven.
- 15:08Speaker 1: Probably means al Gore is more likely to be the nominee,
- 15:12Speaker 1: you know, four, it's more likely without a nine to
- 15:15Speaker 1: eleven he is a bit more front and center Democrats
- 15:17Speaker 1: are a bit more, a bit less willing to work
- 15:22Speaker 1: with Bush. There is and Bush has to make more
- 15:25Speaker 1: effort to sort of get legitimacy. You know that that
- 15:32Speaker 1: was you know his you know after look we we
- 15:35Speaker 1: you know. The Bush presidency basically began on September eleventh,
- 15:40Speaker 1: as far as history is concerned, but we forget this
- 15:44Speaker 1: was this was a this was a presidency that was
- 15:47Speaker 1: having to immediately make the case that it was legitimate.
- 15:52Speaker 1: It was the first presidency we'd had in the modern
- 15:54Speaker 1: era that won via the electoral college, not the popular vote.
- 15:58Speaker 1: The recounts of Florida that the media was doing would
- 16:02Speaker 1: have been extraordinarily more covered and consequential without nine to eleven.
- 16:06Speaker 1: It took all about anywhere from nine to months to
- 16:08Speaker 1: twelve months. Those things still happened, but there was almost
- 16:12Speaker 1: like they looked more like political science experiments than they
- 16:15Speaker 1: did mainstream news stories. Because I think again, so much,
- 16:19Speaker 1: so much of the resources of the national news media
- 16:22Speaker 1: was devoted more to covering nine to eleven. And then
- 16:25Speaker 1: of course with the two wars with Iraq and Afghanistan
- 16:28Speaker 1: and the focus on all that, So I think you
- 16:31Speaker 1: have to you know, when you think about the political environment,
- 16:34Speaker 1: we shouldn't lose side of that. But I keep coming
- 16:37Speaker 1: back to the acceleration of the information ecosystem almost becoming
- 16:43Speaker 1: wired into our brains. Right, we'd never had anything like
- 16:46Speaker 1: the two thousand election, And you know, my old friend
- 16:50Speaker 1: Lester Holt became sort of he got a nickname Old
- 16:52Speaker 1: iron Pants, right because he was constantly able to go
- 16:59Speaker 1: hours and hours without leaving the leaving the anchor table,
- 17:05Speaker 1: no matter whatever. Nature was calling for him, and it was,
- 17:12Speaker 1: you know, I believe we started the ticker, and then
- 17:14Speaker 1: the tickers on cable news weren't ubiquitous. Then nine to
- 17:17Speaker 1: eleven happens and they become ubiquitous, and it really, I
- 17:20Speaker 1: think also accelerated. Not everybody had moved fully to the
- 17:26Speaker 1: Internet to get their information and get news and information.
- 17:30Speaker 1: Nine to eleven was a bit more of a trigger
- 17:31Speaker 1: because you suddenly needed real time information. You didn't want
- 17:34Speaker 1: to wait for the newspaper, you didn't want to wait
- 17:36Speaker 1: for the evening news, so you did anything that was
- 17:39Speaker 1: in the immediate. Cable news was immediate, and the Internet
- 17:42Speaker 1: was immediate. So it I do think that one of
- 17:46Speaker 1: the cultural impacts in nine to eleven that probably is
- 17:50Speaker 1: delayed without nine to eleven happening is sort of is
- 17:57Speaker 1: our full embrace the digitized information ecosystem. Was this eventually
- 18:02Speaker 1: going to happen? Of course it was, but all of
- 18:05Speaker 1: this suddenly there was more demand for immediate information. So
- 18:10Speaker 1: what happened? Companies responded by creating more products to feed
- 18:15Speaker 1: this demand for more information, and so we end up,
- 18:19Speaker 1: you know, with social media beginning in twenty oh seven,
- 18:22Speaker 1: in twenty oh eight, Does all that happen on the
- 18:25Speaker 1: same timeline? Is it adopted as mainstream on the same timeline?
- 18:32Speaker 1: My theory is that it is not. And I think
- 18:37Speaker 1: this is one of the underrated parts of the impact
- 18:41Speaker 1: of nine to eleven on us is that. So I
- 18:46Speaker 1: think when you throw that in there, I think that's
- 18:49Speaker 1: a pretty important differentiator and how our timeline changes. So
- 18:56Speaker 1: then there are the things that you know, sort of
- 19:00Speaker 1: we've all lived with, still live with, that wouldn't have happened, right,
- 19:03Speaker 1: the emergency that never ends. So there's no Patriot Act,
- 19:06Speaker 1: there's no Iraq war, there's no permanent sort of non state, right,
- 19:14Speaker 1: we don't have this sort of congressionally authorized war against
- 19:21Speaker 1: terrorists that are still being the sort of ambibiguously worded
- 19:30Speaker 1: pieces of legislation are being used now to justify attacks
- 19:34Speaker 1: in Iran, attacks in Venezuela. And so we don't have anything.
- 19:40Speaker 1: We don't have the USA Patriot Act, we don't have
- 19:45Speaker 1: the Department of Homeland Security. So let's immediately realize this, right,
- 19:51Speaker 1: Homeland Security. The idea of the Homeland Security Department had
- 19:54Speaker 1: been partolating for a while among the sort of the
- 19:58Speaker 1: there's a group of sort of good government infrastructure folks.
- 20:02Speaker 1: And because you know, this was sort of a plan
- 20:05Speaker 1: that had been sitting on the shelf, right, there was
- 20:07Speaker 1: always some question why are there? You know, why is
- 20:09Speaker 1: the Secret Service with Treasury? You know, yes, it started
- 20:13Speaker 1: as sort of looking at counterfeit money, but it's bigger
- 20:15Speaker 1: than that. Now, where's the Coast Guard? Should that be
- 20:18Speaker 1: with the Pentagon? Should that be here? And so there
- 20:21Speaker 1: was this idea of like, okay, should there be a
- 20:25Speaker 1: some domestic security agencies, arguably including the FBI. But for
- 20:31Speaker 1: whatever reason, we didn't put the FBI in here that
- 20:34Speaker 1: you know, should be in this cabinet department. I will
- 20:41Speaker 1: at some point do a time machine about you know,
- 20:43Speaker 1: I I the entire creation of the Homeland Security Department
- 20:47Speaker 1: was just a reminder of why, as much as I
- 20:50Speaker 1: would love to see more government efficiency, it is sometimes
- 20:54Speaker 1: impossible to make happen because of members of Congress refusing
- 20:58Speaker 1: to give up a subcommittee a subcommittee influence on some
- 21:07Speaker 1: dying agency that should go away, But because this person
- 21:10Speaker 1: wants to gavel. They think it's an important government entity
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- 23:43Speaker 1: into singularly a border enforcement department. When it drops the
- 23:49Speaker 1: ball on a natural disaster with FEMA or drops the
- 23:52Speaker 1: ball on some other issues with the Coastguard, is that
- 23:56Speaker 1: going to cause? Is that going to cause Christy Nomes
- 23:58Speaker 1: some problems perception problems if something bad happens on her watch,
- 24:04Speaker 1: regardless of whether she was following orders or not. So
- 24:08Speaker 1: I do think that was, you know, one of the
- 24:12Speaker 1: and this and this is another sort of what if
- 24:16Speaker 1: scenario here did Trump Trump's did Bush's endorsement? And the
- 24:22Speaker 1: Republican member who was in charge of the House and
- 24:25Speaker 1: the Senate. The Senate was divided. Democrats had a narrow
- 24:30Speaker 1: majority thanks to a party switch for about until the
- 24:35Speaker 1: twenty oh two mid terms, but Republicans had controlled the House,
- 24:39Speaker 1: and obviously the White House is there. They became George W.
- 24:51Speaker 1: Bush became synonymous with expanding government right. So it really
- 24:56Speaker 1: was this beginning of redefining what is conservatives. And one
- 25:00Speaker 1: could argue that the splintering of the Republican Party into
- 25:05Speaker 1: this magafaction versus this business wing right. George W. Bush
- 25:09Speaker 1: was very much right the avatar of the business wing
- 25:12Speaker 1: of the Republican Party, and so the embrace of China,
- 25:18Speaker 1: the embrace of expansion of government power, I do think
- 25:24Speaker 1: planted the seeds for what is now known as the
- 25:27Speaker 1: Maga wing of the party. Right, these are the true
- 25:30Speaker 1: you know. I think Marjorie Taylor Green really in some
- 25:33Speaker 1: ways articulates this version of conservative better than anybody out there.
- 25:40Speaker 1: She talks about being America first. Hey, no get out
- 25:42Speaker 1: of other people's foreign wars, no foreign excursions. Right, that
- 25:47Speaker 1: mindset the real sort of more Pat Buchanan isolationists view
- 25:51Speaker 1: and sertain where Trump's instincts go. Right, I say, is
- 25:56Speaker 1: instincts right. He's instinctively an isolationist but can't help himself
- 26:01Speaker 1: and always wants to be in the middle of a
- 26:03Speaker 1: deal here, a middle of a deal there. But we
- 26:06Speaker 1: shouldn't underestimate that the birth of the Trump wing of
- 26:10Speaker 1: the Republican Party, or the rebirth of it, right, it
- 26:14Speaker 1: was a sort of a dormant wing of the party
- 26:17Speaker 1: that the Republican support for these expansive government powers that
- 26:22Speaker 1: came in in two thousand and two, two thousand and three,
- 26:25Speaker 1: two thousand and four, the expansion of Department Onland Security TSA.
- 26:29Speaker 1: I thought, imagine a Democrat advocating all of this, right,
- 26:33Speaker 1: there'd be these protests allah from the right that we're
- 26:36Speaker 1: seeing already with Zoon Mormondani. Right. And it was a
- 26:40Speaker 1: Republican presidency that increased the surveillance state, a republican presidency
- 26:46Speaker 1: that sort of concentrated more power in the executive branch. Right,
- 26:49Speaker 1: So it is. I do think some of the seeds
- 26:54Speaker 1: of the rise of MAGA are due to some of
- 27:00Speaker 1: the responses to nine to eleven. And then of course
- 27:03Speaker 1: there's the Iraq War itself, you know, and you know,
- 27:09Speaker 1: this is not my first sort of version of doing
- 27:11Speaker 1: various what ifs on that are nine to eleven related.
- 27:15Speaker 1: I did a what if on if Gored become president
- 27:18Speaker 1: in two thousand, how how do we politically respond to
- 27:23Speaker 1: nine to eleven if if it were the ninth year
- 27:25Speaker 1: of a democratic presidency when nine to eleven happens, rather
- 27:29Speaker 1: than the first year of a republican presidency after eight
- 27:31Speaker 1: years of a democratic presidency. I do think things would
- 27:35Speaker 1: have been a bit more polarized and the response to
- 27:37Speaker 1: nine to eleven had goreb been president than with Bush's president.
- 27:43Speaker 1: But you know, all of it sort of we became.
- 27:47Speaker 1: You know, when you think about the impact of nine
- 27:49Speaker 1: to eleven on on our politics, I do think, like
- 27:52Speaker 1: I said, Bush's support of a stronger, more robust, larger government,
- 27:59Speaker 1: I do think inadvertently planted the seeds for the rise
- 28:02Speaker 1: of Trump a little bit. And then I think when
- 28:06Speaker 1: it comes to our obsession and consuming of news, it
- 28:10Speaker 1: then inevitably led the cable news channels to one to
- 28:15Speaker 1: have to Instead of being informational, they suddenly became affirmational, right,
- 28:19Speaker 1: And that was the beginning of the flag pin fights
- 28:22Speaker 1: who was the most patriotic news channel and that was
- 28:25Speaker 1: being used as a wedge right folks at Fox in particular,
- 28:29Speaker 1: we're trying to use patriotism as a way to disqualify journalism.
- 28:33Speaker 1: And it was the beginning of this sort of part
- 28:36Speaker 1: one of what became a very polarized news information consumption market.
- 28:42Speaker 1: But in some ways, because we were constantly clinging to
- 28:47Speaker 1: these cable news channels for information, then it quickly morphed
- 28:51Speaker 1: us into and morphed the cable news channels into being
- 28:56Speaker 1: captured by their audience, so to you know, think of
- 29:01Speaker 1: it this way. Right before nine to eleven, we thought
- 29:04Speaker 1: of the news as sort of more informational things we
- 29:07Speaker 1: needed to know, but it wasn't a priority. After nine
- 29:10Speaker 1: to eleven, news became something you had to follow for
- 29:14Speaker 1: your own survival, for vigilance, and in many ways, nine
- 29:21Speaker 1: to eleven created an entire generation of news junkies, reinforced
- 29:25Speaker 1: news junkiedom and where you constantly felt like you needed
- 29:30Speaker 1: to have more and more information, so right, the breaking
- 29:35Speaker 1: news alerts, the constant notifications on our phones, the tickers,
- 29:42Speaker 1: and in some ways it also created impatience, right since
- 29:45Speaker 1: information we were expecting information on our fingertips all the time,
- 29:48Speaker 1: it sort of accelerated that aspect. Now, I again, I
- 29:54Speaker 1: think all of these technologies don't It's not like the
- 29:58Speaker 1: technologies don't happen. Our adoption of these new technologies or
- 30:02Speaker 1: is what accelerates. And I think that that's where I
- 30:06Speaker 1: would go, right, And now, you know, I think the
- 30:14Speaker 1: question is where we always was this an inevitable result
- 30:17Speaker 1: of once we sort of put all we put algorithms
- 30:22Speaker 1: in deciding what news we saw on all this stuff
- 30:24Speaker 1: that once these filters and this was going to happen anyway,
- 30:28Speaker 1: or would gatekeeping still be strong, would be at least
- 30:33Speaker 1: stronger today than it is. If we never have this
- 30:38Speaker 1: desire or concern or need to constantly feel as informed
- 30:44Speaker 1: as we absolutely felt like we had to have in
- 30:49Speaker 1: post nine to eleven. Without nine to eleven, would there
- 30:55Speaker 1: been a Would constant breaking news alerts have turned us off? Right?
- 30:59Speaker 1: Would unverified speculation have sort of been like, oh, that
- 31:02Speaker 1: belongs in the high end of AM radio? Would we
- 31:06Speaker 1: be less tolerant of emotional framing of news? Right? Maybe?
- 31:17Speaker 1: But I think there's a strong case to be made
- 31:19Speaker 1: that while we, I think now look at social media
- 31:23Speaker 1: as a result of smartphones, did nine to eleven actually
- 31:27Speaker 1: train us to never look away and therefore accelerate the
- 31:33Speaker 1: the creation of these social media platforms because we knew
- 31:37Speaker 1: there was a demand. Right? In many ways, you don't
- 31:39Speaker 1: create something unless you think there's a demand for it. So,
- 31:47Speaker 1: if this means we don't have politics without a hyperintendent
- 31:52Speaker 1: attentive culture, what does that look like? Right? Does this
- 31:56Speaker 1: mean we'd never have a Donald Trump or a Barack Obama?
- 31:59Speaker 1: That we saw to stick to the very I don't
- 32:06Speaker 1: want to say convent. Yeah, I guess it's conventional. You
- 32:09Speaker 1: know at the time, right, is a Barack Obama sort
- 32:14Speaker 1: of convinced that he should be running for governor before
- 32:17Speaker 1: he runs for president type of thing. Don't forget what
- 32:22Speaker 1: powered Obama to the White House arguably was the fact
- 32:26Speaker 1: that he came out early against the Iraq War before
- 32:28Speaker 1: other mainstream Democrats did it, and there was a recording
- 32:31Speaker 1: to prove it. Right, without it, does he ever win
- 32:34Speaker 1: that nomination against Hillary Clinton? Anyway? And think about how
- 32:38Speaker 1: much that how much that issue absolutely divided the Democratic
- 32:45Speaker 1: Party and what happens without it. By the way, I
- 32:50Speaker 1: don't think John Kerry's the nominee in two thousand and
- 32:51Speaker 1: four without nine to eleven. Right, Democrats needed to have
- 32:54Speaker 1: thought they needed to have a military veteran after what
- 32:57Speaker 1: happened in O two. There was this whole after the
- 32:59Speaker 1: who Max Cleland thing in two thousand and two, with
- 33:04Speaker 1: the weaponization of the Department of Homeland Security as a
- 33:07Speaker 1: wedge issue in those two thousand and two midterms, right,
- 33:09Speaker 1: it really sort of made the idea of what Democrats
- 33:12Speaker 1: need to find somebody with military service. That's what got Carrie,
- 33:15Speaker 1: you know, sort of jump started his candidacy. You know,
- 33:20Speaker 1: I think it's more likely we have Al Gore as
- 33:22Speaker 1: nominee in two thousand and four because you're more likely
- 33:25Speaker 1: to run again. Perhaps, you know, perhaps Hillary Clinton is
- 33:29Speaker 1: not seen as this hawkish because there's nothing to be
- 33:31Speaker 1: hawkish about, and then she's a more conventional potential candidate
- 33:38Speaker 1: in twenty oh eight. Now do I think eventually in
- 33:42Speaker 1: the same mindset, we the public would have been like,
- 33:46Speaker 1: wait a minute, what's with the dynasties? We're not just
- 33:48Speaker 1: trading Clinton for Bush for Clinton. You know, I still
- 33:51Speaker 1: think that demand would have been there, but maybe it's
- 33:54Speaker 1: not as powerful yet. Maybe it takes a one more
- 33:58Speaker 1: term of Hillary of Clinton actually serving as president before
- 34:01Speaker 1: it becomes a powerful political force on that front. So
- 34:08Speaker 1: what things still happened that probably impact our politics back then?
- 34:12Speaker 1: So essentially what replaces nine and eleven if it never happens,
- 34:17Speaker 1: I think we still have a financial crisis because that
- 34:19Speaker 1: was you know, the seeds of those were planted in
- 34:22Speaker 1: the nineties, and you know, maybe it accelerates nine to
- 34:28Speaker 1: eleven with all the extra spending that came may have
- 34:30Speaker 1: propped up the economy for an extra couple of years.
- 34:34Speaker 1: And therefore, remember there was sort of it was your
- 34:36Speaker 1: patriotic duty to go shop it do you does that?
- 34:41Speaker 1: Does all of this accelerate and maybe the financial collapse
- 34:44Speaker 1: happens in four oh five rather than oh, seven oh eight, Right,
- 34:48Speaker 1: that's possible. We still have tech discoveries, tech disruptions. The
- 34:53Speaker 1: question is is the if there's not demand for information
- 34:57Speaker 1: every second of the day, do some of these social
- 34:59Speaker 1: media platforms take off as fast as they did and
- 35:04Speaker 1: we're still going to have inequality? We were still going
- 35:06Speaker 1: to have this. And I think the question is whether
- 35:13Speaker 1: is just when it happens on how intense I look
- 35:17Speaker 1: at nine to eleven, and I assume it delayed our
- 35:21Speaker 1: inevitable sort of reckoning that was about. That was taking
- 35:25Speaker 1: the unit party reckoning right, the whether it's the center
- 35:29Speaker 1: left of the Democratic Party center right. But if you
- 35:31Speaker 1: think about it, Bush, Clinton, the Bushes and the Clintons
- 35:35Speaker 1: were really seen as between the forty yard line presidents.
- 35:39Speaker 1: And they were also on foreign policy very much in
- 35:43Speaker 1: uniparty and that and and in trade it was uniparty.
- 35:49Speaker 1: You know, both Bush and Clinton were pro NAFTA Both
- 35:52Speaker 1: Bush and Gore were pro NAFTA both, you know, so
- 35:55Speaker 1: they were both bullish on China in some ways, both
- 35:58Speaker 1: bullish un keep trying to bring Russia into the West.
- 36:01Speaker 1: So the point is is that I do think that
- 36:05Speaker 1: reckoning still takes place inside both parties. You still have
- 36:08Speaker 1: a there's still likely I have to be a financial
- 36:13Speaker 1: crisis that ends, that has a bailout. It all just depends.
- 36:17Speaker 1: I've always and I've done this. What if, right, what
- 36:19Speaker 1: if McCain had won the two thousand and eight presidency
- 36:21Speaker 1: instead of Obama. Well, instead of the Tea Party being
- 36:24Speaker 1: the driving force of the twenty ten midterms, I think
- 36:26Speaker 1: it's Occupy Wall Street that's the driving force of the
- 36:28Speaker 1: twenty ten midterms. Sort of that there's still that it's
- 36:32Speaker 1: more of a because it would have been all Republicans
- 36:35Speaker 1: making the decision. It would have been a Republican president
- 36:38Speaker 1: spending tax dollars to bail out banks and all that.
- 36:41Speaker 1: So it would have I think, just galvanized that. And
- 36:44Speaker 1: you may have had Bernie's dream of his sort of
- 36:47Speaker 1: urban rural coalition coming coming together much quicker and much
- 36:52Speaker 1: faster than even now when we haven't seen it. So
- 36:59Speaker 1: it's not as if any of these things don't happen.
- 37:03Speaker 1: If the question is on what timeline, and the more
- 37:08Speaker 1: I've gone through the what ifs on the things that
- 37:10Speaker 1: happen that we're nine to eleven derivatives, and then the
- 37:13Speaker 1: things that probably happen regardless of whether nine to eleven happens,
- 37:16Speaker 1: like the financial crisis and the continuation of tech disruptions,
- 37:22Speaker 1: I think it really is just about timing. And I
- 37:24Speaker 1: think the biggest conclusion I come to is that our
- 37:29Speaker 1: brief unity post nine to eleven essentially delayed everything that
- 37:33Speaker 1: we've been dealing with now, So probably bring everything four
- 37:39Speaker 1: years earlier. Right, But there's some open questions, right, is
- 37:44Speaker 1: there ever? You know, does a Barack Obama still rise up? Is?
- 37:49Speaker 1: You know? But if you don't have an Iraq war
- 37:51Speaker 1: as a defining distinction between sort of the Obama wing
- 37:56Speaker 1: and the Clinton wing, which in some ways now is
- 38:00Speaker 1: kind of the Clinton wing and the Sanders wing, with
- 38:03Speaker 1: Obama folks two thirds on the Clinton side of that argument,
- 38:07Speaker 1: one third on the Sander side of that argument. You know,
- 38:12Speaker 1: where where is that in its sort of formation? And
- 38:15Speaker 1: all of that. I think those are small details, but
- 38:18Speaker 1: the larger trend lines I'm assuming do continue. They just
- 38:24Speaker 1: go in different Look, that doesn't mean that Saddam Mussein
- 38:28Speaker 1: wasn't going to fall, and I think you still would
- 38:30Speaker 1: have had his fall. There's probably still you know, my
- 38:33Speaker 1: guess is Cheney's still kind of interested in finishing the
- 38:37Speaker 1: job with with a rock, so that there we deal
- 38:40Speaker 1: with the rock sort of the way we've been dealing
- 38:42Speaker 1: with Iran. So you know, it's not as if there
- 38:45Speaker 1: aren't the potential for some for some foreign policy uh
- 38:51Speaker 1: involvement and maybe even involvement that becomes politically less popular
- 38:56Speaker 1: in the Middle East. But it's it all obviously looks
- 38:59Speaker 1: different and it's all consumed different. So ultimately the conclusion
- 39:05Speaker 1: I've come to is at nine to eleven in some
- 39:08Speaker 1: ways intensified and accelerated our information consuming culture, and at
- 39:18Speaker 1: the same time it delayed are political reckonings that we're
- 39:24Speaker 1: going to I think now it's there is that they
- 39:28Speaker 1: were going to come do, and in some ways nine
- 39:30Speaker 1: to eleven may have delayed them. All about a cycle, right,
- 39:35Speaker 1: due to either you know, trying to pump money into
- 39:38Speaker 1: the economy or into building up our defenses, which sort
- 39:41Speaker 1: of artificially sort of you know, expanded when you're when
- 39:44Speaker 1: you're expanding government as fast as they were, you're creating
- 39:46Speaker 1: more jobs, you're throwing money into the system. It is
- 39:50Speaker 1: sort of it is sort of propping up the you know,
- 39:52Speaker 1: having some impact on the economy, so likely delayed the
- 39:58Speaker 1: financial crisis a bit, so, you know, sort of it's
- 40:02Speaker 1: sort of two things can be true at the same time.
- 40:05Speaker 1: Right nine to eleven sort of conditioned us to become
- 40:08Speaker 1: these information junkies that now in some ways we've allowed
- 40:12Speaker 1: it to both consume us and destroy our information ecosystem.
- 40:15Speaker 1: But at the same time it delayed the political reckonings
- 40:18Speaker 1: that we're still in the middle of now, this political realignment,
- 40:22Speaker 1: which arguably, you know, as I said, you can actually
- 40:25Speaker 1: see the very first beginnings of this realignment with the
- 40:28Speaker 1: Pap Buchanan challenge of George H. W. Bush in ninety two.
- 40:34Speaker 1: It is it's still I still think you see what
- 40:39Speaker 1: we're dealing with now, all of it. We may be
- 40:42Speaker 1: on the other we have made me have already on
- 40:44Speaker 1: the other side of it by then, and who knows,
- 40:47Speaker 1: we may not have been as interested in celebrity candidates either,
- 40:52Speaker 1: which sort of we came so ultimately without nine to eleven,
- 40:59Speaker 1: you know, we'd still be the imperfect country that is America,
- 41:01Speaker 1: but we might be a bit less frantic, right we
- 41:04Speaker 1: might trust our institutions slightly more, or or we may
- 41:13Speaker 1: feel the same way, you know, or we may just
- 41:15Speaker 1: you know, we may have gotten through this era quicker,
- 41:21Speaker 1: and right now we're still not done. I think we're
- 41:24Speaker 1: still not through this current realignment that it's clear we're
- 41:28Speaker 1: going through. That to me is as much a transition,
- 41:31Speaker 1: because we're transitioning from an industrial based economy to a
- 41:33Speaker 1: service globally a global service economy and its globalization, which
- 41:40Speaker 1: was an inevitable force that began in the nineties and
- 41:44Speaker 1: wasn't going to go away. And in some ways nine
- 41:47Speaker 1: to eleven I think just had a huge impact on
- 41:50Speaker 1: our psyche, had a huge impact on sort of the
- 41:55Speaker 1: perception and role of government and the size of government.
- 42:00Speaker 1: But some of these longer trends, it disrupted them for
- 42:04Speaker 1: a few years, but it didn't erase them, and it
- 42:07Speaker 1: didn't make them go away. So would love your reaction
- 42:13Speaker 1: to this one, Like I said, just like I did
- 42:17Speaker 1: promise with the other what if I would like to
- 42:21Speaker 1: I'm happy to discuss other scenarios that are missing here
- 42:26Speaker 1: that I didn't fully get through. I could have gone
- 42:28Speaker 1: down a Donald RUMs rabbit rumsfeld rabbit hole. Rumsfeld was
- 42:31Speaker 1: going to do some massive Pentagon restructuring before nine to eleven.
- 42:36Speaker 1: I think we were going to shrink forces. I think
- 42:37Speaker 1: the modernization to become a more nimble military was actually
- 42:41Speaker 1: going to take place under a Rumsfeld. I remember a
- 42:47Speaker 1: lot of legacy military folks didn't like what Rumsfeld was planning.
- 42:51Speaker 1: But there were a lot of reformers, including people like
- 42:53Speaker 1: Bill Clinton, who were very got in the hole about
- 42:56Speaker 1: Rumsfeld wanted to do at the Pentagon before nine to eleven.
- 43:00Speaker 1: But then nine to eleven happens and all of those
- 43:01Speaker 1: plans go away. So there's there's there. That's just one
- 43:05Speaker 1: extra thing that that but between, you know, immigration, My
- 43:11Speaker 1: guess is Bush in his first term tries to do immigration.
- 43:15Speaker 1: Uh you know, that's the big lift he attempts without
- 43:19Speaker 1: a nine to eleven that both his tax cut and
- 43:23Speaker 1: his immigration reform. I don't know if he's any more successful,
- 43:27Speaker 1: by the way, I don't though without the specter of
- 43:32Speaker 1: nine to eleven, maybe there's a little less anger on
- 43:35Speaker 1: the right that allows it to pass but I don't.
- 43:40Speaker 1: But it probably does nothing to stop the current sort
- 43:46Speaker 1: of current structure of where we are in the two
- 43:48Speaker 1: parties when it comes to immigration right now in current skepticism.
- 43:53Speaker 1: It just means we might have had at least a
- 43:56Speaker 1: better set of asylum laws than we do at the moment.
- 44:00Speaker 1: All right, look, this is the last What if I'm
- 44:05Speaker 1: going to read you a few that I didn't do,
- 44:07Speaker 1: and if you've got stronger feelings about them, make the
- 44:10Speaker 1: case of why you think I should spend thirty to
- 44:13Speaker 1: forty five minutes. Maybe I can turn a couple of
- 44:15Speaker 1: them into podcast time machines. My favorite one, But I
- 44:19Speaker 1: was so I didn't have enough. I wasn't as well
- 44:25Speaker 1: educated about the issue that I. It was going to
- 44:29Speaker 1: be a heavier lift for me. But this one was
- 44:31Speaker 1: what if the Greco Turkish War had ended favorably for
- 44:34Speaker 1: the Greeks, assuming it's survive World War two? What would
- 44:36Speaker 1: the long term ramifications of a modern Greek state spanning
- 44:39Speaker 1: southeastern Europe and much of western Anatolia be for regional
- 44:43Speaker 1: and world affairs? Would religious tensions be better or worse
- 44:46Speaker 1: than they are today? You know, this gets at to
- 44:48Speaker 1: you know, what if we had You know, what if
- 44:50Speaker 1: they're essentially the French and the Brits hadn't tried to
- 44:53Speaker 1: create countries out of thin air after the fall of
- 44:56Speaker 1: the Ottoman Empire. So I think it's an interesting one.
- 45:01Speaker 1: But like I said, I felt like I wasn't ready
- 45:03Speaker 1: for this another idea that we looked at, but I couldn't.
- 45:10Speaker 1: I didn't. I didn't really have forty five minutes. What
- 45:12Speaker 1: happened to pro boxing? As a kid? I remember watching
- 45:14Speaker 1: boxing on Sundays with Dad. That tradition has gone. I
- 45:16Speaker 1: feel the same as slowly happening in the NFL, and
- 45:18Speaker 1: don't know what what if? To shape around that? Right?
- 45:22Speaker 1: Maybe it's what if? What if? What if mister t
- 45:30Speaker 1: never does the WWE and we start mixing boxing with
- 45:33Speaker 1: entertainment and then mixed martial arts happens. I don't know,
- 45:38Speaker 1: it's a it's interesting things. Here's another one. What if
- 45:41Speaker 1: Princess Diana had lived, which you have continued reshaping the monarchy? Interesting?
- 45:46Speaker 1: What if Nelson Mandela had never been imprisoned? Would the
- 45:49Speaker 1: would apartheid have ended sooner? Oruld the anti apartype movement
- 45:53Speaker 1: have actually lost a unifying symbol. That was an interesting one,
- 45:57Speaker 1: and again I want to find a good historian to
- 46:01Speaker 1: help me out on this one. Here was another fun
- 46:03Speaker 1: one that we decided not to do. What if Steve
- 46:06Speaker 1: Jobs hadn't been ousted from Apple in nineteen eighty five?
- 46:09Speaker 1: Would the personal computing revolution have come sooner? Or would
- 46:12Speaker 1: Apple have burned out before the iPhone era? But that's
- 46:14Speaker 1: a fun what if that. I think the folks over
- 46:17Speaker 1: at the Acquired podcast who have done this might be
- 46:20Speaker 1: better suited for if that one. And here's another one
- 46:23Speaker 1: that I actually do want to figure out how to
- 46:26Speaker 1: do next year. What Malcolm X had lived? Would his
- 46:31Speaker 1: partnership or rivalry with Martin Luther King Junior have redefined
- 46:36Speaker 1: the Civil Rights movement second phase and the rise of
- 46:39Speaker 1: black political power in the seventies. Essentially, if both MLK
- 46:43Speaker 1: and Malcolm X had lived, would there have been a
- 46:48Speaker 1: sort of faster rise in the seventies of black political power.
- 46:53Speaker 1: It's an interesting thesis and one that I think is
- 46:55Speaker 1: worth worth diving into. And then here's another one. What
- 47:01Speaker 1: if Netflix had never pivoted to streaming? Do we still
- 47:03Speaker 1: live in the era of binge culture? Or just cable
- 47:05Speaker 1: survive longer? Boy? Those things that one I'm not one
- 47:08Speaker 1: hundred percent sure of, and I don't think it would
- 47:10Speaker 1: have carried a whole thing. But here's another one that
- 47:13Speaker 1: I do want to dig into at some point, What
- 47:15Speaker 1: if China had democratized in the nineties, how would the
- 47:17Speaker 1: global balance of power look today? The only reason I
- 47:21Speaker 1: didn't do this one, and it might be worth doing
- 47:23Speaker 1: down the road, is I think the conclusion I would
- 47:27Speaker 1: have come to if China had democratized in the nineties
- 47:29Speaker 1: would have been like, yeah, China would have been Russia,
- 47:32Speaker 1: and there'd have been an elected strong man that just
- 47:35Speaker 1: sort of stayed strong man of that country that we
- 47:39Speaker 1: probably see some combination of Modi in India meets Putin
- 47:44Speaker 1: in Russia. That that's what the leadership of China would be.
- 47:48Speaker 1: I think what we're I think the thing that I've
- 47:51Speaker 1: come to the conclusion under the fall of the Soviet
- 47:53Speaker 1: Union and why democracy has been sort of in fits
- 47:55Speaker 1: and starts with in former Soviet republics, is just look
- 47:59Speaker 1: at the story of democracies in any country. There are
- 48:02Speaker 1: always a fits and starts, and they don't It's not
- 48:04Speaker 1: a straight line. It does eventually get there, right, you know,
- 48:07Speaker 1: but it you know, it took France a while, it
- 48:09Speaker 1: took Germany a while. You know, they had a false start.
- 48:11Speaker 1: The women are republican to fall once before they got it,
- 48:14Speaker 1: and it took us. But from our you know, it
- 48:18Speaker 1: took us from eighteen seventeen seventy six to nineteen sixty
- 48:22Speaker 1: five until we gave everybody the right to vote, right,
- 48:24Speaker 1: So you know it took us a while as well.
- 48:26Speaker 1: So I do think some of these it's hard to
- 48:28Speaker 1: do some of these what if I'm democracies around the world,
- 48:31Speaker 1: because the history of democracy in all of these countries
- 48:35Speaker 1: is never a straight line, right, There's sort of this circles,
- 48:38Speaker 1: Like if China is a democracy by twenty fifty, tanam
- 48:41Speaker 1: And Square is going to be seen as one of
- 48:43Speaker 1: the early indicators that China wanted democracy. But if China
- 48:47Speaker 1: doesn't get democracy by twenty fifty, Tienaman Square becomes less
- 48:50Speaker 1: and less of irrelevant moment right in the history of China.
- 48:54Speaker 1: Just something to be thinking about as you pitch your
- 48:57Speaker 1: ideas to me. Well, given that I'm recording all of
- 49:08Speaker 1: this on January tewod, it means I've now had two
- 49:11Speaker 1: days to marinate in Miami's victory over the Ohio State University.
- 49:20Speaker 1: It is. I think I told you at the start
- 49:22Speaker 1: of this college football playoff that my fan expectations were
- 49:28Speaker 1: we better win one. That would be embarrassing not to
- 49:31Speaker 1: win one. I think we you know, I won't. I
- 49:35Speaker 1: won't feel like the season successful if we're not in
- 49:37Speaker 1: the semifinals. So we're in the semifinals. So I think
- 49:42Speaker 1: that Miami's where we always should be, where we belong.
- 49:46Speaker 1: And of course, now in this day and age, can
- 49:48Speaker 1: you win two more? And let's just say that once
- 49:56Speaker 1: you get this far, you get greedy and you say
- 49:59Speaker 1: to yourself, well, you're only two games away, and let's
- 50:04Speaker 1: get this done. I go back to Miami. It's so
- 50:10Speaker 1: funny in this Miami of Miami Ohigo State game because
- 50:13Speaker 1: Miami literally was Ohio State twenty o two in this game, right,
- 50:18Speaker 1: It was sort of a you know, the announcers noted
- 50:22Speaker 1: that the last time Miami was in a relevant game
- 50:24Speaker 1: was that two thousand and three Fiesta Pole, which was
- 50:26Speaker 1: for the two thousand and two season where the upstart
- 50:30Speaker 1: was Ohio State. They were the former power trying desperately
- 50:35Speaker 1: to get into the elite. Beating Miami was the way
- 50:39Speaker 1: that they could get taken. Seriously, Miami was sort of
- 50:42Speaker 1: part of the elite of the last you know, nearly
- 50:45Speaker 1: twenty years. At that point, they had been on won
- 50:48Speaker 1: five titles in eighteen years at the time, the best
- 50:51Speaker 1: run really since the old Notre Dame Army Navy, you
- 50:55Speaker 1: know era of the forties and fifties and the Bear
- 50:59Speaker 1: Bryant era in Alabama, and it seemed like an era
- 51:02Speaker 1: that nobody was ever going to top until a guy
- 51:05Speaker 1: named Nick Saban showed up at Alabama a few years later.
- 51:08Speaker 1: But that's how this game felt that Miami was the
- 51:14Speaker 1: sort of the old, an old power that was looking
- 51:18Speaker 1: to prove it was back, and it had to beat
- 51:21Speaker 1: one of the current blue bloods, which happened to be
- 51:22Speaker 1: Ohio State. So that's why symbolically I found that the
- 51:26Speaker 1: Ohio State game was so much. This was extraordinarily important
- 51:30Speaker 1: for Miami to win, to prove that it is back.
- 51:34Speaker 1: Important for recruiting. Ohio State success over the last twenty
- 51:39Speaker 1: years has been largely due to its success at recruiting
- 51:43Speaker 1: in South Florida wide receivers more than anything else, and
- 51:47Speaker 1: it's been a huge blow to Miami, Florida and Florida State,
- 51:51Speaker 1: Ohio State's success in recruiting South Florida, specifically that one
- 51:57Speaker 1: position group. It was important to win a game like
- 52:03Speaker 1: that in order to win some recruiting wars that we'd
- 52:06Speaker 1: been losing. Miami over the last twenty five years had
- 52:10Speaker 1: lost recruiting wars to northern schools. We had dominated the
- 52:13Speaker 1: recruiting wars against those northern powers back in the eighties
- 52:16Speaker 1: and nineties, but in the odds we were not winning those.
- 52:20Speaker 1: We won them at first and then started to lose
- 52:22Speaker 1: them after Miami's run started to fade. So that's why
- 52:27Speaker 1: I think symbolically it was an important victory. But now
- 52:31Speaker 1: it's a very winnable right the road is there, and
- 52:35Speaker 1: Miami has built essentially not to lose games badly, so
- 52:42Speaker 1: it means they're going to be in every game. The
- 52:45Speaker 1: defense is good enough to keep them in any game
- 52:47Speaker 1: against any team. The question is whether the offense can
- 52:50Speaker 1: score enough points to win said game. Now they just
- 52:54Speaker 1: you know it is. They scored more points against US
- 52:59Speaker 1: State than any team has done all season, including the
- 53:03Speaker 1: number one team in the country, Indiana. So look, I
- 53:07Speaker 1: think that there's certainly Miami has the talent to win
- 53:12Speaker 1: two more games. If I think Miami's defense can slow
- 53:18Speaker 1: down Old Missus offense, the question is is Miami's offense
- 53:22Speaker 1: good enough to exploit some of the weaknesses on Old
- 53:25Speaker 1: Missus defense. And that's a fair question to ask. I
- 53:29Speaker 1: don't know the answer to it, but I'm feeling pretty bullish.
- 53:34Speaker 1: I think I will fully admit I misread the psyche
- 53:39Speaker 1: of the Ole miss players. I did think with the
- 53:41Speaker 1: portal opening now and that that game against Georgia was
- 53:46Speaker 1: going to be problematic. Now I think they're still going
- 53:50Speaker 1: to have a distracted coaching staff, but the players seem
- 53:52Speaker 1: to be in some ways using this as fuel, using
- 53:56Speaker 1: this as energy. So there's a part of me worried
- 53:58Speaker 1: that Miami is goodded is just simply another episode in
- 54:02Speaker 1: this sports movie that is known as the team that
- 54:04Speaker 1: loses its coach and wins the championship anyway, right, kind
- 54:09Speaker 1: of like the Michigan basketball team Steve Fisher. Back in
- 54:14Speaker 1: nineteen eighty nine, I think it was when the head
- 54:20Speaker 1: coach of Michigan's basketball team leaves before the start of
- 54:23Speaker 1: the NCAA tournament. I becau his name was Bill Freeder.
- 54:25Speaker 1: He went to Arizona State and Michigan was like, nope,
- 54:29Speaker 1: you get out of here. They appoint the interim coach,
- 54:32Speaker 1: Steve Fisher, and all he does is win the whole thing.
- 54:40Speaker 1: On that one, I think that was the Glen Rice
- 54:41Speaker 1: team if I'm not mistaken, but it was. That was
- 54:46Speaker 1: at the time a pretty impressive run, one of the
- 54:50Speaker 1: all timers at that one, And this feels very similar
- 54:54Speaker 1: to that. So there's a part of me worried are
- 54:56Speaker 1: we just a speed bump on the way to Old
- 54:58Speaker 1: Miss documentary history here? Then again, if you're a documentarian,
- 55:02Speaker 1: which story is better the rise of Indiana football or
- 55:06Speaker 1: the resilience of Old Miss after Lane Kiffen leaves them
- 55:09Speaker 1: at the altar? Right? Like, this a pretty good sports
- 55:12Speaker 1: movie in either direction that you choose to go. Miami
- 55:15Speaker 1: and Oregon in comparison, are just very conventional narratives. Although
- 55:19Speaker 1: Miami versus Oregon is a fun little Mario Crysto bo Bowl,
- 55:23Speaker 1: which would be fun. But that gets me to a
- 55:25Speaker 1: few perception things that I want to get off the bat.
- 55:28Speaker 1: First of all, I give Shannon Dawson, that Miami play caller,
- 55:31Speaker 1: a lot of grief. This was the best game plan
- 55:35Speaker 1: I have ever seen him put together. He answered, everything
- 55:40Speaker 1: that I was upset about in the last game. You
- 55:42Speaker 1: don't seem like a game plan for the defense you're facing.
- 55:45Speaker 1: Look like we game plan for the defense we were facing.
- 55:49Speaker 1: It feels like you didn't trust Carson Beck to make decisions.
- 55:52Speaker 1: He trusted Carson Beck to make decisions. By the way,
- 55:55Speaker 1: Carson Beck, he wears number eleven for Miami fans. It's
- 55:59Speaker 1: the last guy to wear number eleven and do some
- 56:03Speaker 1: incredible things with that jersey number. Was Ken Dorsey, the
- 56:09Speaker 1: quarterback for the greatest college football team of all time,
- 56:11Speaker 1: the two thousand and one Miami Hurricanes, and the quarterback
- 56:14Speaker 1: who should not have been in the last in the
- 56:17Speaker 1: last play of the game in that Ohio State game,
- 56:19Speaker 1: he had been knocked out. Today's concussion protocol never would
- 56:25Speaker 1: have let him back in, and Miami's backup quarterback probably
- 56:29Speaker 1: should have been allowed to finish that game. And I
- 56:33Speaker 1: still wonder to this day. I think Dorsey was still rattled.
- 56:36Speaker 1: He shouldn't have been brought back in. But I'm still nitpicking, right,
- 56:39Speaker 1: never mind the bad call. We tie that game. We
- 56:42Speaker 1: should We were right there at the one yard line,
- 56:44Speaker 1: we had two shots at it, But he was still
- 56:46Speaker 1: he wasn't fully in that game on that front. But
- 56:51Speaker 1: my point I'm back is Beck reminds me of all
- 56:54Speaker 1: the good traits of cars of Ken Dorsey. Look, you're
- 56:58Speaker 1: not ever saying I never said nobody, no Miami fan
- 57:02Speaker 1: thought Ken Dorsey was going to be an NFL starting quarterback.
- 57:05Speaker 1: You knew that. And yet he was the best quarterback
- 57:10Speaker 1: Miami could have had guiding that team. He was a
- 57:12Speaker 1: point guard quarterback. He knew how to get the ball
- 57:14Speaker 1: in the hands of the people that needed to have
- 57:16Speaker 1: it and what to do in the moment. And that's
- 57:19Speaker 1: what it feels like Carson Beck has done. You know,
- 57:21Speaker 1: There's all this and this gets into sort of a
- 57:24Speaker 1: larger New Year's resolution that I think we all need
- 57:27Speaker 1: to have, which is be careful of Internet perception. Painting
- 57:33Speaker 1: a picture of somebody that you don't know anything about.
- 57:37Speaker 1: There's this internet perception, right. I'll tell you a classic
- 57:41Speaker 1: case of where this came in over the weekend. It's
- 57:43Speaker 1: a great story in The Athletic about the new managing
- 57:46Speaker 1: one of the late Jim Mercy's three daughters are collectively
- 57:50Speaker 1: running the team, but one daughter is the managing partner.
- 57:54Speaker 1: She's sort of the one that sits at the owner's meetings,
- 57:57Speaker 1: and the Athletic did a whole profile of her. You know,
- 58:00Speaker 1: I had first sort of noticed her when the Internet
- 58:04Speaker 1: exploded with why is the owner on the sideline with
- 58:07Speaker 1: a clipboard and a headset? And then I learned reading
- 58:10Speaker 1: that article that she's been doing this for years. Just
- 58:13Speaker 1: now people are noticing because now she's the general managing
- 58:16Speaker 1: general partner of the team, not just her dad's just
- 58:19Speaker 1: the daughter the owner. And after reading the piece, I thought, well,
- 58:24Speaker 1: she's a terrific owner. She's exactly what an owner should
- 58:27Speaker 1: be doing, which is to understand everything that goes in
- 58:31Speaker 1: putting a team together so that you can help make
- 58:33Speaker 1: good decisions. Anyway, the Internet perception of her was, you know,
- 58:39Speaker 1: somehow right, the painting the picture of what she think?
- 58:42Speaker 1: Who does she think she is being on the sideline
- 58:44Speaker 1: type of thing. After reading the article, You're like, this
- 58:48Speaker 1: is totally opposite of the perception being painted. This is
- 58:51Speaker 1: happening a lot. You know, I look at how quickly
- 58:55Speaker 1: the perception of Maroow Crystobaul is indebted. You know, he's
- 58:59Speaker 1: had a couple of high profile questionable calls on when
- 59:05Speaker 1: it comes to sort of clock management right. That Georgia
- 59:08Speaker 1: Tech game for Miami fans is infamous. There's a couple
- 59:11Speaker 1: of games that Oregon fans will remind you of when
- 59:13Speaker 1: he was coach of Oregon. But you know what we
- 59:16Speaker 1: forget why is in he Why is there's a reason
- 59:21Speaker 1: he's at these major programs. He does know what he's doing. Okay,
- 59:25Speaker 1: he made a couple of mistakes in moments where everybody's watching,
- 59:28Speaker 1: and it can sort of create a perception. But guess
- 59:32Speaker 1: what he also is doing is building a program. He
- 59:35Speaker 1: does lean into his strength, which is identifying offensive line talent,
- 59:39Speaker 1: and he's built the program and the image that he
- 59:42Speaker 1: said he was going to do. Is he a little
- 59:45Speaker 1: small c conservative when it comes to on the offensive
- 59:48Speaker 1: side of the ball, for my tasted times, it is.
- 59:53Speaker 1: But is it working well? Results, scoreboard, record, point out,
- 59:59Speaker 1: all all of them. And if he ends up, you
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: know he's already this idea that he can't win a
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: big game. Well, does winning in the College Football Playoff
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: at Kyle Field qualifies a big game? Does winning in
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: the Cotton Bowl against the number two ranked team in
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: the country considered a big game? And now if he
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: loses to Ole Miss as a favorite. Are we going
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: to say, Wow, Miami's terrible as a favorite, They're only
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: good as an underdog. Well, that might be a you know,
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: they're a small part of me nervous that Miami's the favorite. Now,
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: when I liked being in this underdog role where we
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: were the ace. The the sort of anti acc bias
- 1:00:36Speaker 1: of every of betters and of the punditry on ESPN
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: was we had all kicked in, you know now that
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: we kicked the you know, because the win over Ohio
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: State wasn't a fluke, right. We beat them up, We
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: out physicaled them, and they thought they were going to
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: out physical everybody else and they couldn't. Let's see what
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: happens when we're matched up against you know, another SEC team.
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: We'll see and we'll see if we can get past
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: that and we and we end up against either Oregon
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: or Indiana. But by the way, I uh, here's a
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: question about the Indiana Alabama game. Indiana looked like Alabama,
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: and Alabama looked like you know, Alabama reminded me of
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: Miami two thousand and five. So Miami was still considered
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: you know, it only been a couple of years removed
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: from the National Title Game. They'd sort of only had
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: one loss away from being in the three title game,
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: and so there was just you know, they were still
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: one of the powers, and we ended up facing off
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: and in one of these disappointment matchups with LSU and
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: the Peach Bowl and LSU boat raced US forty two
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: to three. Players started in fighting amongst themselves. It was
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: just a disaster. I think at that point Coker fired
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: all of his assistants. Because Coker wasn't gonna get fired
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: right away. He was being given, you know, some grace
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: since he led the team to back to back championship games.
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: But it was the beginning of the end. I fear
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: this for Calin de bore with what happened. It wasn't
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: that they lost to Indiana, it's how they lost. They
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: just didn't look like they physically belonged on the field,
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: and how did just like that's what happened when Miami.
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: It wasn't that Miami lost, ale issue was how they lost.
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: And let's just say that in two years of Kurt
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: Signetti as the next head coach of the University of Alabama,
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: I won't be surprised and I do not accept the
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: premise that Signetti wouldn't take the job. But what I
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: saw the Knicks. If you're looking for a Nick Saban
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: like frankly, I gotta give crystaball credit. He looks. I mean,
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: Miami didn't have a single accepted penalty. That's how that's
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: Nick Saban esque. That was never Miami's reputation over the years.
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: Now I got handed to those SEC officials. They were
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: SEC officials doing the Miami Ohio state game. Boy did
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: they let everybody play. There were a couple of hits
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: that I swear Miami would have been flagged down if
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: they were a CC officials. It just had been a given,
- 1:03:15Speaker 1: and Miami doesn't get flagged. They sort of quote let
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: him play. And if there was a baton passing moment,
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: there's this video if you haven't seen it, that's going
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: around Carnel Tait. It basically short arms a throw from
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: saying because he was about to get hit, and it
- 1:03:31Speaker 1: looked like he was afraid to get hit. And that
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: was I remember when they showed the replay. I saw
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: it and I even remarked in the room, huh, boy,
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: look at how afraid they are of getting Hiti. Miami
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: is certainly making them uncomfortable looking back. Boy, that's the
- 1:03:50Speaker 1: that feels like the symbolic moment that the baton was
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: passed back to Miami and here they come. Because I
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: promise you this, this physicality that Miami's bringing back isn't
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: a one year phenomenon. It's it's I think, going to
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: be the DNA. It's certainly Mario Cristobal's DNA. So the
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: question I have is will we will ask will the
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: big time athletes still want to play in a small
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: c conservative offense. That's the only concern I might have.
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: But this day and age, winning Trump's everything, and if
- 1:04:24Speaker 1: we're winning, people want to be a part of a
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: winning culture. But anyway, just be careful of perceptions. Right,
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: we sit here and we allow the Internet to fuel
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: perceptions of certain individuals, certain people, certain resumes when and
- 1:04:43Speaker 1: then when the when it doesn't, when when they don't
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: play to the internet type, we think, oh, well, there
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: must be something wrong with the other team. When you
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: know it is we probably were over zealous in the
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: characters in the caricature that was being created. Uh. I've
- 1:04:59Speaker 1: participated in that over zealousness at times, and I've gotten
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: because we as a fanatic fan short for fanatic. I've
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: certainly had my strong opinions about how certain things went
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: with Miami, but let's just say this is this is
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: always what I expected, and this is what the Miami
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: fan base is about, which is we expect to be
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: contenders for national titles hard stop. Nothing else matters, and
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: you can say, well, go win an ACC title. We've
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: never cared about conference titles because we're still in I
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: still view us as an independent who's been a mercenary
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: for these conferences. We joined a conference because of the
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: other sports. We never wanted to join conferences, but we
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: did it out of scheduling purposes. It isn't a matter.
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: It's what conference gives Miami the best shot at competing
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: for a national title and or what system works, and
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: so ultimately, if Miami is operating on the level that
- 1:05:54Speaker 1: they're operating on this year for the foreseeable future, you know,
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: as long as we're contending and win one out of
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: every three or four, you're going to have a satisfied
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: fan base. I'd like to think we won't lose it
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: the way we're already seeing our friends at Ohio State
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: lose it over Ryan Day I mean, what more does
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: he have to do to keep his seat from warming
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: up too much in the next year if he somehow
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: loses another game or two before getting back to a
- 1:06:26Speaker 1: title game. But look, we'll see, I am it is tough.
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: It is interesting to me that I heard Rees Davis
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: say this playoff rematches that take place in the playoffs
- 1:06:42Speaker 1: from the regular season. The only time where the same
- 1:06:46Speaker 1: team won twice was a miss over tu Lane this year,
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: so every other rematch has gone the other way. Not
- 1:06:54Speaker 1: the best omen And I do worry Indiana is getting
- 1:06:57Speaker 1: so many flowers, excuse me, roses thrown their way right now?
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: Is this just like Miami's getting a bunch of stuff
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: thrown their way. I'm nervous about Miami being a favorite.
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: If I were an Indiana fan, I'd be nervous about
- 1:07:11Speaker 1: suddenly Indiana being such a heavy favorite. So we'll see.
- 1:07:18Speaker 1: It's going to be. It's a fun final four. And
- 1:07:20Speaker 1: how about the fact that all four cultural centers of
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: America are represented. Miami is very much an East coast
- 1:07:26Speaker 1: Northeast five school, oh Miss as deep south as you
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: get Indiana, as midwest as you can get in Oregon,
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: the west coast This is what makes the college foo
- 1:07:37Speaker 1: ball so great, right, and the fact that the final
- 1:07:40Speaker 1: four worked out this way despite the attempts of the
- 1:07:43Speaker 1: conference conference commissioners to screw this up. Don't screw this up, guys.
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: If we can produce a system, ultimately the conferences should
- 1:07:55Speaker 1: be secondary. If this is going to be what our
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: system is, and we should go from there, and we
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: can improve scheduling and all of these things, but this
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: result should ultimately be what we get every time, which
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: is some geographic diversity and sort of spreading the wealth
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: a little bit. And that's the dirty little secret about Nil. Right,
- 1:08:18Speaker 1: Pre Nil, we only had a lot of Alabama, a
- 1:08:21Speaker 1: lot of Clemson, a little bit of Georgia, and not
- 1:08:24Speaker 1: much else. Right, what has Nil done? Look, there's still
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: the haves and the have nots, but there's now more
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: halves than we've ever had before. And isn't that. People
- 1:08:36Speaker 1: in Bloomington, Indiana are pretty excited about this. People in Eugene,
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: Oregon are pretty excited about this. People in Oxford, Mississippi
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: are pretty excited about this. And yes, those of us
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: in Miami and Coral Gables are extraordinary excited about this.
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: So anyway, enjoy the next two games