Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 5/12/26: Trump Says Ceasefire On Life Support, Trump Desperate Gambit On Gas Prices, UFO Files Breakdown

Transcript

5/12/26: Trump Says Ceasefire On Life Support, Trump Desperate Gambit On Gas Prices, UFO Files Breakdown · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
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  Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We have an
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: amazing show for everybody today. Emily, Wait, what do we do?
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: What we do?
• 0:40
  Speaker 4: Wait?
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: The arm wants to every time with you. You gotta keep
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: it pinned. My heart goes okay, right, right right, We're
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: going to keep it there. It's Fascist Points, Emily and Sager.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: All right, so we have no hand. Think we've got
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: to keep our hands down.
• 0:53
  Speaker 5: To the desk.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Otherwise you might do Ricky Bob, Yeah, we might might
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: just get a little bit out of control. Spas might
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: blame it here on the caffeine. I can't believe Crystal
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: does this every morning and every dime. I have forced
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: to do it. I'm an offer. So here is what
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: we have today. We're going to cover the latest developments
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: with Iran. So some interesting things. Trump saying that the
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: ceasefire is quote on life support, and the Iranians are responding.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Emily and I are going to break down the gas
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: tax Trump wants to suspend it some eighteen cents, as
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: well as some other big movements in the petroleum markets
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: that are all showing up in our grocery stores and
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: at the tank. Right now, I'm going to give you
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: my take on the UFO release, the long hyped UFO release,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: the TLDR. It wasn't that great, but we will go
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: through it nonetheless, and in fact, we will at least
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: discuss what has not yet been released. According to some
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: of the whistleblowers and other authorities out there, bbe giving
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: an interview.
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: I know you guys covered that a little bit yesterday,
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: but there's a.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Very important comment where he blames social media on rising
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: anti Semitism, and it is linked to a discussion we're
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: going to have about a very long new York Times
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: story released by Nicholas Christoff just set a full bone
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: freak out in Israel as well as with many of
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: its proponents here in Washington, alleging a large, basically systematized
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: rape against Palestinian prisoners. We're gonna break down some of
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the facts within there, the controversy, you.
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: Know, their rebuttals, etc.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: We are also going to be joined by Derek Thompson
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: on AI who says, actually doesn't look like we are
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in a bubble, which might be scarier in and of itself,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: because if we're not in a bubble, that means that
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: the data center build out and the amount of change
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: that they have promised very likely is coming, at least
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: in some form that they said. And then finally, we're
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: going to be looking at the economy, a fascinating story
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: about how men are faring in our economy not particularly.
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: Well, and as well as why.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And what social trends we can actually see as a
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: result of that. Before we get to any of that,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: please subscribe to our channel, Breakingpoints dot com. If you
• 2:50
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• 2:52
  Speaker 1: and if you're listening to the podcast, we share an
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: episode with a friend, but Emily, it's great to see you.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Thank you for thank you for doing this with me.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I know there's been a lot of schedule change up.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: It's actually Crystal. I'm gonna be on tomorrow the Coveted
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Sager and Crystal Wednesday Show. You never see it, you
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: never see it, you never see it. But that's what
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: we're gonna make happen here, all right, should we start
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: with iron, Let's do it. Let's do it. Here's Donald
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Trump saying the ceasefire is on life support.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: Let's take a lesson.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: Being the seafire remains it like, it's unbelievably weak.
• 3:22
  Speaker 6: I would say I would call it the weakest right
• 3:25
  Speaker 6: now after reading a piece of garbage. They said I
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: didn't even finish reading it. They said, I'm going to
• 3:32
  Speaker 6: waste my time reading it. I would say it's one
• 3:34
  Speaker 6: of the weakest right now. It's on life support. They
• 3:37
  Speaker 6: you understand, these are all medical people, doctor os. Life
• 3:41
  Speaker 6: support is not a good thing.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Great back pognotics.
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: I would say the seaspire is on massive life support.
• 3:48
  Speaker 6: Where the doctor walks in and says, sir, you loved one.
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: That's approximately a one percent chance of living.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: A one percent chance of survival not great in terms
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: of where we are now. You know what's kind of
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: crazy is I didn't even realize this because it didn't
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: feel that long ago. But the ceasefire, remember, which was
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: originally what a fifteen day ceasefire, has now been going
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: on as long as the actual fighting was and so look,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: I mean it never really ceased fire. There's been multiple
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: exchanges back and forth, ships that were been hit by Iran,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: the United States striking many Iranian tankers. But I still think,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: you know, pretty noteworthy comments what ultimately obviously you guys
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: covered this yesterday, but this is about a total breakdown
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: in the diplomatic process.
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: We had the Islamabad talks.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: The Islamabod talks failed to deliver anything materially. We have
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: now had multiple exchanges Barackravid leaks going back and oh
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: where we're this close to a ceasefire plan, and then
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the Iranians actually released their plan, like, oh well, we
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: can't have that. Trump saying it was a piece of
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: garbage and shooting it down yesterday now saying the ceasefire
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: is on life support. This is just a deep frustration,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: you know, within his mind, and we're actually gonn connect
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: it to Cuba and Venezuela later in this story, because
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: it does demonstrate the mindset of how easy they thought
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: this would be from the get go. And now we're
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: more than two months almost into this thing, and it's
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: very very clear that this is not only not ending
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: anytime soon, but his mind is defaulting to the same
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: same place that every American president in Vietnam and in
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Iraq and Afghanistan always went to, which is just a
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: few more troops, is a little bit more military action,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: and we can change this thing from the status quo
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: more in our favorite and it never works out well.
• 5:29
  Speaker 7: And I mean NET and Yahoo.
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: On his sixty minutes interview, which we'll cover again today
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: because it was so long and track full of predictable
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: but worthwhile moments, he actually talked about miscalculating on the
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: strait of horror moves. And that's where again you have
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: this impass for Trump that is just there's nowhere for
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: him to go. There's absolutely nowhere for him to go
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: other than capitulation or escalation. And that's exactly why he
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: is frozen.
• 5:55
  Speaker 7: In amber right now. He can't move, so.
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: He's been messing with these tiki taki ceasefires because he
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: can't go anywhere in the Strait of Warmos. They're not
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: going to give them the straight of war moose. They're
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: not going to relinquish their control their leverage there, and they,
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: I mean apparently have come to the table in nuclear enrichment.
• 6:12
  Speaker 7: But that's not good enough.
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: It's not good enough if he unfreezes sanctions or if
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: he lifts sanctions and unfreezes assets from Mark Levin, Lindsey
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: Graham and the like. So he's stuck until something gives
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: or he escalates. And that's why it's so so dangerous
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: right now with the escalation.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, actually, let's put this on the street, just broke.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: You can go and take a look in our chat Emily.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: We'll put this up here on the screen. Guys, is
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: you can actually see this morning. Iran has now actually
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: claimed an even wider geographical footprint for the Straits of
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Hermus than before.
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: This is from their new state media.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Tehran says the Straits of Hormuz area now goes from
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman to
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the island of Siri in the Persian Gulf, which are
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: both circled and red on the map. In front of you.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: This is from Javier bloss Over at Bloomberg. He says, effectively,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: it means Iran's the Straits over moves as an area
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: now two hundred kilometers to each side of the Strait's apex,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: significantly larger than in the past. Just a side kind
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: of of where things are. It's also no surprise where
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Trump was actually speaking there at a medical event where
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: he teases that he's about to go and meet with
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: his generals about Iran. In the middle of that discussion
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: with reporters, let's take a lesson.
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: I am being waited on by a large group of generals.
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: And that's also important, you know, having to do it,
• 7:31
  Speaker 6: having having to do with the absolutely lovely country of Iran.
• 7:36
  Speaker 6: That's the way they pronounced.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: We will, we will get started, the very lovely country
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: of Iran. Let's put this up here on the screen.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Barakravid again. I mean, you know, you can't deny. It's
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: definitely being talked to by people on the inside. Here's
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: what they said, what he says. President Trump is meeting
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: with the National Security Team Monday to discuss the way
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: forward in the Iran War, including possibly resuming military action
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: after negotiations deadlocked on Officials say Trump wants a deal
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: nuclear program puts the military option back on the table.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Trump publicly threatened several times in recent days to bomb
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: infrastructure if diplomacy failed. The US waited ten days for
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Iran's response to its draft proposal for ending the war.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: The White House was initially optimistic, but the Iranian response
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: that arrived on Sunday was not positive. State TV reported
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: that Tehran rejected the US proposal, which it said meant
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Iran's surrender to Trump's excessive demands. Trump then rejected that, saying, quote,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I don't like it. It's inappropriate. So the people who
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: are at the meeting is the Vice President, Steve Wikoff,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: the CIA Director, and a few other senior officials. The
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Sea ceasefire, he said, is on massive life support. I mean,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I do think when you put all of these things
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: together with Trump, I mean I almost feel like I've
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: said this a million times. Is well, he's got only
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: got two options, is you know, surrender or escalation.
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: You even said it earlier.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, he keeps trying to delay the inevitable,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: and like there's a very Vietnam esque aspect of this is,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: oh you said five thousand, advisor, Oh sir, it's not working.
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: That's why you need ten ten thousand this time. It's
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: going to get the job done.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Now, initially it should have said zero because obviously it
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: was going to fail. But every single time you climb up,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: because it's easier actually to expend American lives or capital
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: or you know, just to keep this thing going, even
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: with oil markets, than it is to stand before the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: world and to say I'm done, I resign, you know,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: if we want to use the checkmate analogy that you
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: guys discussed earlier. And I feel like what this really
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: shows is trying to delay the inevitable is actually just
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: continuing to wound us and the entire world. Because the world,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: it's very obvious what has happened. They are all, no,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: we're cooked, it's over, right, But in the interim, by
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: refusing to accept that we're all paying four dollars and
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: fifty cents a gallon in gasoline. This is just national average,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: well over six dollars in California.
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: Oh my god.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I was reading in Japan's stocks yesterday. They have until
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: October and then it's over. I mean, the show is
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: it stops completely. And they have the large, one of
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the largest strategic petroleum reserves in the world. We released
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: more in the last week from the strategic patroleum reserve
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: here in the US than we did under Joe Biden.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: And then there's no and it was already low as
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: a result of that Biden used, which means also that
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: you refilling it is going to cost the taxpayer. I mean,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: my god, you know, billions and billions of dollars. So
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: when you put that the ticking clock of all of
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: this together, Kuwait exported zero barrels of oil. Actually there's
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: a story, guys. We're gonna have this in post as well.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I just want to give it a mention because the
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: UAE and Kuwait are giving a dust up over it.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Kuwait is claiming as of this morning that four IRGC
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: connected specs were arrested in Kuwait today, allegedly plotting an attack.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: The UAE is supporting them, condemning the infiltration of IRGC
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: elements into Kuwait's bobby on island to carry out a
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: terrorist plot and affirms the complete solidarity of the UAE
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: with Kuwait. I mean, I don't know how much how
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: serious it is, you know, who knows, a lot of
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: liars I think in the region. But nonetheless you can
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: see that this what this is doing to the golf
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: is it's rewriting things forever. I mean, the UA is
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: like a client state now for Israel, they've got iron
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: dome system and IDF soldiers. You've got the UA exiting Opek.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Now you've got Kuwait with no dollars coming in. It
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: was zero oil exported for the first time in over
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I think since the Persian Gulf War, you know, since
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the what was in nineteen ninety one something like that.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: It's just been decades before I think either of us
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: were born that something like that has happened. And then
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and the rest of the golf countries they
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: have already experienced all the catastrophic shut ins where their
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: amount of production I think as of a month ago
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: is down twenty five percent. So I don't even know
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: what it is today. So all of this happening I
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: think on top of the slow moving it's like a
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: taking time bomb basically to where we're going where we're
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: just not going to have We're going to have a
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: catastrophic either shortage or price spike in oil. It's just
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: inevitable basically at this point.
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: Well yeah, I mean, even if the war were to
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: end right now, it's like turning the Titanic around to
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: get things back in shape, especially before the midterms. We're
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: going to talk more about the economic pressures in just
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: a moment. But that's obviously where Trump finds himself is
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: squeezed between two bad options. These are two bad options
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: of his own making, of course, but what should concern
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: everybody everybody, is that he now seems to be listening
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: more and more and more to the Mark Levins of
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: the world. Then he is listening to skeptics, critics within
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: his own administration, certainly on the outside, and that leaves
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: you know, when you're looking at a rock and a
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: hard place, it looks like one option is much more
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: likely because that's who he's chosen to listen to, no surprise,
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: that's who he's chosen to listen to, to be honest,
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: But at this point, because there's a sycophancy about all
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: of it.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Well, even less teas that out. They have a compelling argument,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: which is, you.
• 13:16
  Speaker 5: Can get out of this certain All you gotta do.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Is this, this, and this. People like me who are like,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, sir, you're coming, you know, people ego maniacs,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: anybody who's got the Constitution, no matter whether it's Trump
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: or anybody to even make it to the Oval totally,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: they don't want to hear it, all right, they don't
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: want to hear that what they've done is one of
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: the greatest mistakes in modern strategic history period. And so
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: it's a lot easier to listen to Levine or anybody else,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: but like, well, we just got to keep going harder, Like,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: don't you be a coward if you were to do
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: that again? You know, to look at the Constitution of
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: every person who is sad in the Oval and has
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: made very similar mistakes. They might have trusted up a
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: little better, like Barack Obama or George W.
• 13:56
  Speaker 7: Bush.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: You know, yeah, we might like their delivery, but fundamentally
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: we're all in the same.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: Did you hear Trump yesterday saying that the Kurds let
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: us down?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: I did see that.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean literally came out right. That's where we are, right.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, oh, they let us down because they don't
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: fight on. Oh, we've got the Majahadeen. You know, let's
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: just do the nineteen eight. It worked out real well. Meanwhile,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: the Iranians, let's put a four up there on the screen.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Golibav the Speaker of the Parliament. He says, our armed
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: forces are ready to deliver a well deserved response to
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: any aggression. Mistaken strategy and mistaken decisions will always lead
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: to mistaken results. The whole world has already figured this out.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: We are prepared for all options. They will be surprised.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: He actually followed it up a little bit yesterday. He said,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: there is no alternative but to accept the rights of
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: the Iranian people is laid out in the fourteen point proposal.
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: Any other approach will.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Be completely inconclusive, nothing but one failure after another. The
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: longer they dragged their feet, the more the American taxpayer
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: will pay for it. So I was mentioning the UAE
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: the thing a little bit earlier while another piece of news.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's not shocking exactly, but it's definitely confirmation.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Let's put a eight up there on the screen. This
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: is from the Wall Street Journal story broke late last night.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: The UAE has been secretly carrying out attacks in Iran.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: One strike in April actually hit an oil refinery on
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Iran's Lavon Island. The UAE carried out strikes on Iran
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: military well equipped by Washington. The attack suggested the country
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: is now more willing to use them to protect its
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: economic power and growing influence across the Middle East. The strikes,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: which they have not publicly acknowledged, have included an attack
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: on the refinery on Lavon Island. The attack took place
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: in early April, around the time that Trump was announcing
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a ceasefire.
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: The reason why this is.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Important is that osin to analysts and others had all
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: knew that this happened. They were like, wow, it looks
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: like the UAE just did an air strike. Of course,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the UAE never confirmed it. However, it makes things a
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: little bit different, doesn't it. Now.
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: To be fair, Iron did hit them first, but after that.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: You know they have been claiming, oh, well, it's all
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: self defense, we haven't done anything to them, when in
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: reality it looks like they actually have been hitting them
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: quite a bit from their own territory, and again it
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: fits with their desire to drag Trump into a big
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: let's not even put it that way, their desire to
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: finish the war because for them it is existential. They
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: hit the Fujeira oil facility, which lets the bypass the
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Straits of Horn, moves their economy, and the hotel occupancy
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: rate is like ten percent in Dubai. There's all like,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: you know, I think very few passengers going through Dubai airport.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: This has been a humiliation on the world stage. And
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: remember Project Freedom, which you know was on and then off.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: One of the reasons why it seems now, originally we
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: thought that the UA in the Saudis were like, we
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: can't let you do this because then we're going to
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: suffer the consequences. Irl. What seems to have happened is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: that they were upset that Trump would not continue the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: war as in like the full scale war against Iran
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: because they want them to finish the job. Seems to
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: have given them some assurances, oh no, no, don't worry,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: we will continued, you know, to go down this more
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: escalatory path. Then they did open up their airspace because
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: for them, they feel like they can't walk away from this.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: They're like, this has to be done. We can't live
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: under the shadow of Iranian control of the Strait. That's
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: where things are, you know, as of right now. It's
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: just I really do feel like on the Gulf front
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: that that pincer that they feel around them makes it
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: so existential that they are really willing to do anything
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: to try and push the United States into a more
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: and a broader conflict. UAE, especially, which remember has a
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: lot of influence here in our domestic polity.
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I was literally just going to say,
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: I wanted to look it up to be precise, but
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: they're building a Trump hotel in UAE.
• 17:44
  Speaker 7: There's crypto investment from the UAE.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: It's always worth emphasizing that when you're trying to understand
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: and kind of break into what might be happening in
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: Donald Trump's brain. There are a lot of business deals
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: on the line.
• 17:57
  Speaker 7: With the UAE.
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: So we're the remember that in this context sart of
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: the only thing that I've heard that may be persuasive
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: or maybe from Trump's vantage points, what's persuasive for him
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: about continuing to twist in the wind a little bit
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: and say ceasefires on life support. It's possible. They believe
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: they can wait out and overthrowing, not necessarily an overthrowing,
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: but a usurpation of the IRGC from moderates in Iran.
• 18:29
  Speaker 7: Good luck, it's possible. That's what they think.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Well, okay, let's look at their strategy. It just didn't work.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: So what they and I think this consistently keeps happening.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: You know, you talk to who you talk to, as
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: in let's say, you talk to the people who are
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: willing to talk to you in Iran. So you're like, oh,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: things are actually moving well. So then you deliver this
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: formal proposal and then what happens. The Iranians have to
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: get internal buy in from across their government. That's why
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: it takes them a few days. They got to go
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: talk to Supreme Leader. They can't call him on the phone.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: The president has to weigh in, he's got to medium,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: you got a goal, you know, all these everybody's got
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: away in. Oh, and then the response comes back and
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: it's a lot different than maybe what you initially expected.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Why because it has to reflect a proposal which is
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: internally acceptable to all elements of the government inside of
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Iran not necessarily just the word of a negotiator kind
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: of like you know jd Vance or Steve Wicoff. They
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: don't speak for the United States, right. You have to
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: get Trumps buying, you have to get the whole government
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: to buy in. So we have the same factional system
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: in the same way that they that they do. We
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: just have to think about it a little bit that way.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: And to your point, can we weight them out? I
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: mean it seems to be I would say obviously not
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: only the answers no, because if it was true that
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: we could weight them out, then we wouldn't be continuing.
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: To escalate in the way that we are.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Here is the Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, speaking on
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: this front.
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: Let's take a listen.
• 19:51
  Speaker 8: The economic pressure on Iran right now is increasing dramatically.
• 19:55
  Speaker 8: Not only is their government in the country losing their
• 19:58
  Speaker 8: main export revenues because of our blockade, but also our
• 20:04
  Speaker 8: economic Fury operation that we launched at starting just a
• 20:07
  Speaker 8: few weeks ago, is collecting the monies of the corrupt
• 20:11
  Speaker 8: IRGC leaders that they've scrolled away abroad. We are turning
• 20:15
  Speaker 8: the economic pressure up on the leaders of Iran to
• 20:18
  Speaker 8: drive their motivation to come to the table drive.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: So everything is about a similar maximum pressure combined with
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the blockade. And then just to link it a little
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: bit to Trump's mindset is you know what I've heard
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: this said so many times in DC, and it really
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: does seem to have borne out here, is presidents get
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: frustrated by the fact that they can't just wave a
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: wand and do whatever they want. On the domestic front,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: they have Congress, you know, they lodge, Supreme Court. So
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: what they always end up doing is they love foreign
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: policy because it's the only area that they actually have
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: basically one hundred percent control over. And even I mean
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: in this case, you shouldn't be allowed to launch a war,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: but apparently you can under this current commresce. So what
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: do they do. They become obsessed with leaving their footprint
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: on the world, especially you're an old guy who want
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: a legacy, So that give.
• 21:09
  Speaker 7: Up on the domestic stuff, which is harder.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: You give up on the domestic stuff because you actually
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: have to, I don't know, do something, you know, build
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: consensus and all that, and you end up focusing abroad.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: So Trump, Obama, Jason Poy This happens every time Obama,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: you know, Bush with Iraq. I mean Bush literally ran
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: in two thousand saying I want to not withdraw from
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the world, but he's like, we should not, should go
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: be abroad and do nation building, and then becomes a
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: nation building president. Obama Jason pol Biden, I mean elected
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: basically to calm things down and to have some sort
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: of rational response to COVID. He basically becomes the Gaza
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and the Ukraine president. That's what we're mostly going to
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: remember him for. On top of crippling inflation. Trump's second
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: term is already defined by Iran. I mean, those seems
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: like ancient history at this point, right It's it's.
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: Gonna be Iran.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: That's the number one thing the history books will probably
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: remember Trump for the second term in at least so
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: far from what we know. And that's why he's obs
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: asked with like remaking the world in his own image.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: So let's put this next one up here on the screen.
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: From A six.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Trump is growing impatient as the Cuban regime clings to power,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: they say. US officials believe that the regime could fall
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: by the end of the year, but that timeline is
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: not fast enough for the president. The White House says,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Cuba has rejected humanitarian and economic assistance to stabilize almost
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: certainly because it's with the talks attached or some sort
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: of conditions. Trump is actually out with the truth literally
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: just this morning on Cuba, and what he says is
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: that Cuba said he's claiming that they want to talk.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: He says, no Republican has ever spoken to me about Cuba,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: which is a failed country and only heading in one direction.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: Cuba's asking for help. We are going to talk. In
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the meantime, I'm off to China, President DJ two.
• 22:46
  Speaker 7: In the meantime, I'm off to China. It's like he
• 22:48
  Speaker 7: must a note from Malania on the first.
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: Exactly, and in the meantime, I'm going off.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: Look, it's very odd like he was promised that Cuba.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: He was promised Iran would be just like Venezuela. That's
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: why he cannot shut up about Venezuela. As evidence in
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: his most recent combo with a Fox News anchor, A seven,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: let's take a listen.
• 23:06
  Speaker 9: When I was talking to the President this morning, it
• 23:08
  Speaker 9: was just before the Oval Office event, he kind of
• 23:10
  Speaker 9: surprised me a little bit because he said, John, I
• 23:12
  Speaker 9: just want to tell you, I'm very serious about this,
• 23:15
  Speaker 9: so you can talk about this. I'm serious about beginning
• 23:19
  Speaker 9: a process to make Venezuela the fifty first state. Now,
• 23:23
  Speaker 9: there's a rich history in this nation of taking territories
• 23:27
  Speaker 9: and absorbing them into the United States. Puerto Rico is
• 23:30
  Speaker 9: one that people talk about. But this would be the
• 23:33
  Speaker 9: first time in my knowledge that a sovereign country was
• 23:37
  Speaker 9: ever invited to join the United States of America.
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: How would that work?
• 23:41
  Speaker 10: Well, John, I won't get ahead of what the President
• 23:44
  Speaker 10: was comfortable sharing with you as far as those plans go.
• 23:46
  Speaker 10: But look, this is a president who is famous for
• 23:48
  Speaker 10: never accepting the status quo. He is always considering a
• 23:51
  Speaker 10: host of options to improve our country, and of course, Venezuela,
• 23:54
  Speaker 10: now led by President Delsea Rodriguez, is working incredibly cooperatively
• 23:58
  Speaker 10: with the United States. I won't get ahead of any
• 24:01
  Speaker 10: plans that the President may have to that effect, but look,
• 24:03
  Speaker 10: this has been a tremendous success the United States, revitalizing
• 24:07
  Speaker 10: our relationship with Venezuela and in turn improving the economic
• 24:11
  Speaker 10: situation of both countries and our people.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: So, okay, we're going to have Venezuela as our fifty
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: for eight.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: While we support Venezuelans. We are going to create while
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: we fight the scourge of Mamdani socialism. We are going
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: to add a country with millions of ideologically committed socialists.
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: No, no, that's not what he says.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: No though those are those are only the bad ones.
• 24:34
  Speaker 7: This is we're supporting ridiculous.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: It's funny, you know, if you go down trip down
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: memory Lane, is there was actually at the height of
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: like the American imperialist kind of sentiments in the eighteen eighties,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: kind of culminating with the Spanish American War and all that,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: there was actually a serious effort I think it was
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: under Grant's presidency to turn the Dominican Republic into a state.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: For the same reason they want fifty first state. They're like, yes,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: we the America needs the island. You know this white
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Puerto Rico. Why do you think all these things are
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: American territories and others. At the time, it was like coaling.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: But really what it was is about empire and expansion.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: We will have access to their vast resources. And you know,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: there were actually there was a huge debate that happened.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: They said, we can either be a republic or we
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: can be an empire, and an empire people understood would
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: be more tyrannical, and that what it would mean is
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: that you would become beholden to the capitalist interests and others.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: You would be less representative actually of the average citizen.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think obviously that's entirely born out accurately.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: As the American Empire has expanded, there's been some plus
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: it is, we all get cheap televisions and cheap laptops.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: But the Venezuela example, I think is the clearest cut
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: of this. You know, this mindset of the ease of
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: how these things can go, and again to the instinct
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: to want to leave the mark. I mean, if you
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: look at the things that Trump is the most obsessed with,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: from the ballroom to now the reflecting, which we had
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: a big argument about yesterday. She's pro reflecting pool which
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: just like I don't even.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: Understand, I'm pro I'm pro waiting and seeing, no rendering.
• 26:08
  Speaker 7: My judgment.
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: This man is terrible to discussed.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, it's disgusting, but I prefer it filled
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: with duck shit to whatever they're going to put some
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: guilded which it was. Let's be honest, for anybody who's
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: lived here for a long time. It's been gross for
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: a decent period of time. The question is do you
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: trust Trump to not turn it into a gaudy monstrosity.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: You know, look, the Forest Gump scene. That's what we
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: all strive for in our reflecting pool. Okay, that's that's
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: my that's my reflecting pool is the Forest Gump Jenny scene. Now, anyways,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: taking it back from all that, the whole point is
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: he's obsessed with you know, this morning, he's posting himself
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: on one hundred dollars bill, like, that's what it's about
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: for Trump, right, It's about the ballroom, It's about the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: reflecting pool. And Okay, most people want to live with
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: that because they thought that, oh, okay, we're not gonna
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna close the border. Oh and what else,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: We're not going to have crippling inflation and high go
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: oh what was that? Right?
• 26:59
  Speaker 6: Yeah?
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: So oops, now you do have crippling inflation and you
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: have all this bullshit which is currently happening on top
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: of wanting to make Venezuela the fifty first state.
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: Well, just to close the loop on the point that
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: you're making it's he has been so frustrated with domestic
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: politics that now he's going to the foreign policy sphere
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: because it feels like easier fixes to make these really
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: grand achievements or even gestures on the foreign policy level
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: that are legacy building, which he is clearly obsessed with doing.
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: You can see it physically here in DC. He's obsessed
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: with legacy building. And then on top of that, he
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: clearly wants his presidency to be defined by this grand
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: restructuring on the world stage. So that's where he's turned,
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: and we're going to see soccer. I mean, we have
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: a lot to talk about here when it comes to
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: gas prices. We're going to see how this goes from
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: the next several months, little in the next several years.
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: Let's get to it.
• 27:53
  Speaker 7: As the warriner run rages.
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: President Trump announced yesterday he was in favor of suspending
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: the federal gas tax. This is according to the Wall
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: Street Journal, which is basically writing up comments. He told
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: reporters in the Oval office, we can put the first
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: element up on the screen. Trump said, quote, I'm going
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: to He said, gas prices will quote drop like a
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: rock after the war.
• 28:15
  Speaker 7: And when he was asked how long he would consider.
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: Suspending the gas tax for he said, quote until it's
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: appropriate worth noting where TRIPAA has gas prices the national
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: average here we can toss up on the screen four
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: dollars and fifty cents a gallon. Four dollars and fifty
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: cents a gallon as of today, when you scroll around
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: the map, you see prices in California at six dollars
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: and fifteen cents, Michigan four dollars and seventy one cents,
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: Illinois almost five dollars gallon, four dollars ninety seven cents.
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: There are still some states where it's a bit lower,
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: basically nowhere lower than four dollars a gallon. In most
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: places much much higher than four dollars a gallon.
• 29:00
  Speaker 7: So you can.
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: Understand why President Trump would be feeling the pressure to
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: take that federal gas tax and suspend it. Let's toss
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: this Wall Street Journal element up on the screen as well.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: B three looking down the barrel at what might happen,
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: what might be happening in California, Just as we discussed
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: them already having sky high gas prices, the Journal has
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: this piece, think six dollar gas is it's about to
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: get even worse in California.
• 29:26
  Speaker 7: Why is that.
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: Well, the state just got its last shipment of Middle
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: Eastern oil, Sager.
• 29:33
  Speaker 7: So the pain is about to be felt.
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: Even this is the tip of the iceberg, I think
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: is actually probably the best way to put it. It's
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: about to get much, much, much worse around the country
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: heading into the midterm elections, summer travel season. It's then
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: going to give way to fall election pressures. And you're
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: at this point asking to turn the Titanic around when
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: it comes to getting some of these refineries back up
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: to capacity. Even if you were to wave a magic
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: wand and the war today, it's going to be a huge,
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: huge problem for the administration last Naland says Senator Josh
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: Holly introduced a bill yesterday that would actually allow President
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: Trump to sign this into law. He's pretty clear he
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: can't do this by executive actions. So Republicans now getting
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: on the bandwagon in Congress as well.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but at the end of the day, we're talking
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: here about eighteen cents a gallon, Like that's just what
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: we already have in Iran war tax. The Iran war
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: tax is what a buck fifty something like that.
• 30:31
  Speaker 11: You know.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: The California example is a very good one. And something
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: we've been trying to hammer home here because we always say, oh,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: America is a net energy exporter. Yeah, that's true, But
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: what do we learn is that each individual region of
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: the United States is uniquely vulnerable to the conditions for gas.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: That's why gas is a very different price in California
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: than here. A lot of people like to talk about
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: how California has a high gas tax. Definitely true, don't
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: get me wrong. However, one third of California as comes
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: from the Middle East. Why well, they have to importal
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: it's far away from a lot of the refineries. They
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: don't want refineries in California that you sign your own destiny.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: They don't want refineries. When it built a new refinery
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: in this country since the nineteen seventies, most of them
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: are being you know, constantly tinkered with and or updated,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: but brand new ones not happening. If you compare the
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Chinese refineries to hours, it's.
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: Not even a question. Granted, they have no environmental REGs.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: They can do whatever they want, so you know, it's
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: definitely kind of complicated. But the point is is that
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the oil in California comes from
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: somewhere else, only twenty five percent of it is domestic.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: A third of it comes from the Middle East. California
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: is actually more reliant on crude oil shipments from Saudi
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Iraq and the UA than any other state in the nation. Quote,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: it'll take a month or two for flows tours resume,
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: then you still have all of the catching up to do.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: And so Iraqi oil actually just came for the first
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: time I think in a while to the shores of California.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, look at a map and think
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: about how how long it's going to take to get there.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: So gas prices as of Friday in California are six
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: sixteen A gallon diesel costs about seven fifty that's a
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: buck eighty two more. The state's stockpile of refined products
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: such as jet fuel and diesel are quote increasingly strained
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: as big Asian fuel suppliers, including South Korea slow exports
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: to California are all being slowed down from everywhere else.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Because remember California, because of all this importation of oil,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: means is not only going to have the higher diesel price,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: but all of these other refined products, the things that
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: we use. Only about thirty five thousand barrels a day
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: refined products are due to arrive from South Korea in May.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: That is down from one hundred thousand barrels a day
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: in April. And it doesn't help that two of the
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: state's major refineries just closed in the last six months,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: cutting off a fifth of its fuel making capacity. Even
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: if the straight reopens, its closure has already withheld at
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: least a billion barrels from the global market, and California
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: is getting as little relief as large tankers from the
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Gulf Coast come in the Trump administration, Remember they did
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: the Jones Act. We already spent enough time on the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Jones Act here on the show. But the reason why
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: I'm going deep into this is it California is a
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: very very extreme example. Like put B two up there
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: on the screen just to show California at six fifteen
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: a gallon. But let's take some other states with high gas. Illinois,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: for example, right, Illinois is four ninety a gallon, And
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: in fact, you know, Michigan and Indiana and Ohio all
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: actually have very very high gas. Now people would say, why, well,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: what was I reading about up a refinery that happens
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: to produce the oil for those three states had a.
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: Problem at accident or something like that.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: And so that means that you have to take the
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: oil offline, which means it's had to come from elsewhere
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: via rail, by truck, whatever. And then same in the
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: northeast corridor, well Pennsylvania, so four sixty six a gallon,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: and in fact, you know you have pretty high gas,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: which is color there in red, pretty much all along
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: the Aescella corridor. Even in the states you have all
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: these refineries, and you know it doesn't have to travel
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: that far. Let's say Oklahoma, you've got three nine to
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: three dollars and ninety four cents. And even Texas, you know,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: the petroleum state is at four bucks a gallon. This
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: is what this highlights is two things, the global commodity
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: of oil, and two is just the sheer complexity of
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: moving oil all and gas all across the United States.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: And why you know, one of the things is very
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: interesting story is one of the biggest trading firms in
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the oil markets is now betting that Trump will do
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: an export ban. What he's betting on is just to explain,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: you know, the exact mechanism he is betting on the
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: spread between West Texas oil futures and Brent crude futures.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: The only way that would happen, you know, even more
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: so is if we had an oil export ban. And
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: this seems again like a clean talking point, well, just
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: no more oil, but that doesn't account for California getting
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: a third of its oil from the Middle East.
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: So where's the rest of it going to come from?
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Are there refineries even set up to refine oil, let's say,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: from Venezuela or from Texas or from anywhere else in
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: the United States? And if they are, how can we
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: even get the oil over? These are huge logistical problems
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: to keep everybody on the road, and in the long run,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: would create more It would actually create individual shortages, probably
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: like in California or elsewhere. It might immediately actually lower
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the price here, but in a month, maybe three, you
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: would begin to see problems. In six months, you're just
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: gonna straight up, you know, a shortage. And also it
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: would actually dry up one of Trump's biggest talking points,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: which is We're making so much money off of this,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: which is technically true if you are in Texas or
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: if you are an oil company, who are making money
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: hands over fist. So yeah, if you're in Midland, or
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: if you're a Houston strip club owner you're doing great,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: or a Ford f one fifty dealer in Midland, you
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: know this is it's money. Bob Thorntoniverse actually met a
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: fan of ours who's a literal Landman.
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: She was a woman, though.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: It was interesting she was telling me about her Landman.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: I was like, wow, okay, so apparently it's a real thing.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: I had no idea. But what you can actually see
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: inside of the store, inside of this is just the
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: intricate nature in which all of this is just falling apart,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: like the gas tax. The fact that we already haven't
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: done it is nuts in my opinion, because eighteen cents
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: a gallon.
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: Can I say, yeah, go ahead, yes.
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: So I just looked up the federal revenue from the
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: federal gas patch every year about twenty three billion dollars
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: a year according to Fox.
• 36:30
  Speaker 7: How much have we spent on the Iron War so far?
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: Oh more than that.
• 36:33
  Speaker 7: The Pentagon's estimate righthch is low balling is twenty five
• 36:36
  Speaker 7: billion dollars.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: So it's just like one on one right now. It's
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: just the gas taxes paper.
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: But it's such a good example of what we prioritize
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: and what we do not prioritize. And yes, we do
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: need money to maintain federal highways and such, but we
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: also don't need to start a war with hern Yes,
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: give me a fucking break.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, all right, And yeah it drives me nuts.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Let's put B four up there on the screen. Like
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: for example, this was what I was talking about in
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: our earlier block, is how the Iron War is draining
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: the world's oil buffer at an unprecedented pace. And they
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: say global oil stockpiles have dropped by about four point
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: eight billion barrels million barrels a day between March first
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: and April twenty fifth, far exceeding the previous peak for
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: a quarterly draw down. Crude accounts for almost sixty percent
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: of the decline and refined fuels of the rest. Crucially,
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: the system actually does require a minimal amount of oil.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: And I think we've explained this before, where it's not
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: that it's like going to zero is so catastrophic, you know,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: for a refinery and others, that you need a minimal
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: amount of oil, Like it's actually apparently better for a
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: refinery to go from one hundred to ten percent than
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: from ten to zero, because when you go to zero,
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: I don't Again I don't fully understand all of it,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: but it's just bad things happen. You're not really supposed
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: to turn it off, and if you do, it takes
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: forever to turn it back on. So the minimal amount
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: of oil that you need to maintain, like the current system,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: we're approaching that within the next like six months to
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: a year. Now I realize it's like, oh, well, that's
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: far away. Keep in mind, it's May twelfth. War began
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: on February twenty eighth. The war began when it was cold.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Now it's not cold. Think about it that way, almost
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: full season, like we're going into summer. So it's like, well,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: it's been a while actually since the war started. So
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: is it that inconceivable that you were to see it
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: in three months up from now? Not really actually considering
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: the way that everything has gone on. So three more
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: months of this, which again I don't think really is
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: out of the question, considering the on again, off again,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: on again that the administration has walked us into. I
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: I don't see a way out of six dollars gown.
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: I know, I don't think you're I don't think you're wrong,
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: and I mean, obviously I support like more domestic production
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: on this front, and if it forces that, I think,
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: you know, maybe there's a six silver lining to all
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: of this, but I don't think that's actually what's happening
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: at all. Let's put this Fortune headline on the screen.
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: This says BE five another huge part of this. The
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: headline here is Iron Wars draining words world's oil buffer
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: at an unprecedented pace.
• 39:07
  Speaker 7: And then we can move on also to the Financial.
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: Times headline, this is BE five fuel munitions and food
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: trumps around war rips across US economy. This is not
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: just about gas, not just about gas. It is about
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: prices that are going to increase across the board because
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: of how fully integrated into every product plastics for example,
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: that gas is and you're gonna have obviously with the
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: Biden administration dubbed greedflation, no question about it. Already seen
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: it across the economy as well. So it is just
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: a geopolitical mess. You don't need us to tell you that.
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: But when you look at some of these you just
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: pull out some of these threads, the extent of it
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: becomes obvious. I mean the world oil reserves here, soccer
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: that is, that's like you said, there's just his path
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: to climbing out of this before the midterms.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: But at all l it doesn't even really matter what
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: you pointed to the financial time story, it really is
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: worth like going through some of it. The direct putt
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: price from the government is twenty five billion, so what's
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: the real number fifty probably maybe sixty something like that.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: And then if you start to go into all of
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: the actual costs of the munitions, which you know, if
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: anybody watching the show, we've gone through that ad nauseum.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Mark Kelly recently just said the quiet part out loud,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: and the Pentagon was to prosecute him because he was like, hey,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: it turns out that we're like critically low. I mean,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: you don't need to classified briefing to learn that. You
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: could just learn look at spreadsheet. It's very obvious. But
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: really what we're all seeing inside of it is from
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: the fuel export problems already, keeping interest rates and all
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: of that high. Then the crazy part about it too
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: is I think it's consumer sentiment at all time low.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: We're going to talk about that a little bit with Derek.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: You've got Ai kind of holding up the stock market.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: You've basically got healthcare holding up the rest of the
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: jobs market. But the actual consumer experience of the average
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: American is just miserable, miserable on a day to day basis.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: And gas. I think it was already bad, you know,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: going into this, not just because of tariffs, but largely
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: as a result is tariffs plus really of like the
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: continuation of a lot of these economic forces, and I
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: think this just really put you know, it put it
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: like lit that feeling on fire.
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: Yes, it's much like Biden.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: You know, things were already problem for Biden, and the
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Ukraine War happened, it was just eliminated it.
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: No, that's a really good point about the tariffs too,
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: because the question of whether or not it's there's certainty
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: over investing in the United States for the future manufacturing
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: business and the like exports that was already precarious and
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: there were a lot of countries. I mean, the Bricks
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: Meeting is when September. So the realignment of some of
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: these really big geopolitical relationships is happening right now in
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: a sense that the Iran war thrust some of this
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: over the edge, right like it was already in motions
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: starting to gel and then the Iran War just puts
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: that in a hyperdrive.
• 42:01
  Speaker 7: So it's it's.
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: Really I mean for Trump to leave office with a
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: genuine sense of having redrawn the world for the America,
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: the interests of America first, whatever that was like before
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: the Iran War has become you know, the odds have
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: become infinitesimally small after.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Can I give you a prediction for China? Let's do it,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: uh Trump. There's already report out there. Trump is considering
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: a one trillion dollar investment package from China.
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: Here's what I predict.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Do you see that we will have Chinese evs in
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: this country in the next five years.
• 42:35
  Speaker 7: That's a great prediction of prediction, did you see?
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: So? Laura Ingram reacted to that right away and said,
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: like catastrophic mist it's.
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: Going, It's going to happen.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: It's it's over.
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: He loves it, he loves it.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: It's not that he loves it, he needs it's the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: stars aligned for China already love it.
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Of course you don't. But what I'm saying is they
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: have been they're waiting. They know he loves investment. They're
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: going to take the Toyota deal, which is you can
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: build here, but you have to build in America. They're
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: going to waive as all the IP things and there
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: will be within five years there will be b wide
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: cars on the road in the US. That's my prediction
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: from and they will be built. They will almost certainly
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: be built here. But that is the deal that they're
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: going to strike with with Trump because he loves the
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: he loves the you know, the investment, and they're going
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: to pledge all of this stuff. What they're good for
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: the money with the largest consumer market in the world.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: That's that's my prediction.
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: He's gonna then have to bomb carg Island to keep
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: the neo cons happy because.
• 43:28
  Speaker 7: They're going to be so pissed.
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: They'll say, quiet. All they care about is real.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: They don't actually care about China, which is kind of
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: how it's always been. All right, UFOs, let's get to it.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Turning down to UFOs, my favorite subject. A lot of
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: people have thought about this with consternation. Is this a
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: distraction from the government, So let's get this out of
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: the way. Almost certainly, almost certainly is now, does that
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: mean that some of the information released by the administration
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: isn't interesting. No, it doesn't. Now is anything earth shattering?
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: Let me just say at the top, absolutely not. It's
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: not like we've got an absolutely confirmation of nothing. However,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: as usual with government files, Emily, the way that I
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: like to look at it is what they choose to
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: show you is probably less important than what they chose
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: not to show you. And what they have chosen to
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: show us is a few new things. And you know,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: with this aura of transparency, a lot of it is
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: recycled video and or things that anybody's been in the
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: UFO the interest for quite some time. Very little in
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: this will shock you. But nonetheless, what we have learned
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: from it so far is that, in terms of the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: transparency that's promised, it basically confirms.
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: What a lot of us had already thought about the subject.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Which is, yeah, are there some videos and others in
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: US possession which you're shocking? Absolutely certainly will show you
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: some of those.
• 44:45
  Speaker 5: However, they're not like.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: The best videos, but the real stuff, if it exists,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: which I know, support your right to believe. If it doesn't,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: none of that is really in government possession. And if
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: it is in government possession, it's either hypercompartmentalized or spread
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: out of monks defense contractors. It's set up in such
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: a way where it can't even make its way to
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: the type of people who are trying to do disclosure.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: And so to give your general reaction and your read
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: of these files, I'll turn to Dave Grush, one of
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: the whistle blowers here, who gave an interview to Fox News,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: and he's basically saying that the administration is being blocked
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: and this is according to his own information, by these
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: elements within the government which may have some insight into
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: these files from any sort of release.
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: Let's take a listen.
• 45:30
  Speaker 12: What you're saying is we are on the cusp of
• 45:32
  Speaker 12: getting a lot more details that deal with actual alien beings.
• 45:37
  Speaker 12: However you're going to describe them.
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: That's certainly up to the president's team, and I certainly
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: support them, But it has come to my attention actually recently,
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: as of today, there are some actors within certain intelligence
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: agencies to include DA and CIA specifically, that are actually
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: blocking some of the president's presidentially appointed team and getting
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: access and getting control some of these historical records. So
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: I really expect the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: Security Bradley Hansel to take care of that as some
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: of that's under his cognizance, especially on the National Program side,
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: which is directly under his organization to reveal some of
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: the historical National Security Council records on this right.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: So what Gresha's saying there is that the DIA and
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: the CI are blocking some of the team from getting
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: access and getting control. And this is why this stuff
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: really matters, because you can only declassify what you.
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: Have access to.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: And remember this has already happened with Epstein. Oh we
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: found eighty nine million files. That's just a case. It's
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: been going on since twenty nineteen. Now, imagine a subject
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: from nineteen forty seven, possibly even earlier that you continue
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: to look at. And I tend to look not just
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: at Dave, but at many of the Congressmen who have
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: much more of visibility into this subject than you or I.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: From Tim Burchett and or even some of these Democrats
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: or Eric Burleson or you know whom I think of,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: Jared Moskowitz, like all of them continue to just make
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: comments where they're like, yeah, it's not really everything that's
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: been shown. Let's put C two and let's take a
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: listen to that of a Democratic Congressman Subermanian talking about
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: the UFO files is take a listen.
• 47:11
  Speaker 11: No, I don't think so. I'm underwhelmed by the release. Honestly,
• 47:15
  Speaker 11: given things that I've heard and things that I've seen,
• 47:17
  Speaker 11: I'd like more to be released. The American people deserve
• 47:20
  Speaker 11: to know what we do have and any sort of
• 47:24
  Speaker 11: evidence of anything we've seen.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: So he's on the Oversight Committee, and really what they're
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: saying is either the things that they've heard or the
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: things that they've seen, either in a classified setting or
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: been testified to from witnesses. We just know that this
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: is not the full breadth of it. Now, there's some
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: interesting stuff in there. We'll get to it.
• 47:39
  Speaker 8: You know.
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: A lot of this is always a problem with this subject, is.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: That the stuff that's really flashy attracts all the attention,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: which I understand.
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: I get it, you know, as somebody who's interested.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: But it's really about the nitty gritty. Whenever it comes
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: to the US military videos, their own internal assessments, their
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: knowledge and or lack of knowledge, let's say, on certain things.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: And then the most important thing is when they have
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: a video of something, they go we have no idea
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: what it is, and then what usually happens in that
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: no idea what it is is it just gets buried.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: They're like, oh, we're on deployment, we don't want to
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: deal with it. But that's the interesting thing, right, And
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: that's what a lot of these subject you know, these
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: internal like Arrow and all these other departments were set
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: up to find and every time they inevitably come out
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: and be like, Oh, there's basically nothing to see here.
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: Don't worry about it.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: There's never been any real effort. Trump allegedly is trying
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: to get here to the bottom of it. But the
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: unfortunate thing is I think they see it as like
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: a fun thing as opposed to a very serious endeavor.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Now that doesn't mean necessarily that nothing serious won't come out,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: but I'm personally a little bit skeptical into the terms
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: that it's gone down so far, and especially because the
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: way it was received initially, as people were like, wow,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: like the Apollo astronauts saw aliens. It's like, guys, that's
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: not what happened, right, Like what happened is they saw
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: some shapes. And by the way, all of us has
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: been reported now for years, like we literally know all
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: of this from the photos, from the testimony of the
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: astronia and others. I'm glad it's reigniting discussion, but that
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean there's any sort of smoking gun.
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: So go ahead, Well, I would say the feeding frenzy
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: around this is becoming, so it's made it so much
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: less serious and accessible because this is obviously now a
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: tool of theatrical transparency, because we're in an era where
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: institutional trust is really low, and so politicians have decided
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: that it will make them look really good to kind
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: of flex their muscles of disclosure. But nobody that's the
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: thing with disclosure, Nobody knows if you're actually fully disclosing anything.
• 49:33
  Speaker 7: And so when you see some.
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: Of these establishment type politicians starting to enter the discussion,
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: when you start seeing you know, really establishment friendly scientists
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: enter the discussion, when you see whistleblowers enter the discussion,
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: and then you have to compare and contrast all of
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: these different perspectives. One person trashing the other person, this
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: person trashing. It just becomes impossible to disentangle what is
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: limited hangout type information, what is real? Are things real
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: but also limited hangouts like this is the most the
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: last several days I think have been some of the
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: most frustrating because it's a feeding frenzy. There are a
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: lot of new people trying to pick at things who
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: haven't been deep in the space like you have for
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: many years, and it's just all so impossible.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 50:22
  Speaker 7: It's always been hard, but now it's gotten.
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: To the point where it's actually, like probably the government's plan,
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: it's almost impossible to really sort the week from the chaff.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Very well said. So we picked some of these videos
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: which are actually interesting. Nonetheless, let's put them up here
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: on the screen. We have some of they're all clearly labeled. Actually,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: this one's the most interesting one. Indo Paycom submitted a
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: report of a UAP consisting of one minute and thirty
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: nine seconds of video from an infrared sensor aboard a
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: US military platform in twenty twenty four. You can actually
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: see it right there in front of your screen, just
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: flying there among windmills. I haven't seen somebody be able
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: to geolocate it just yet, but this is consistent with
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: some of the videos that we've seen, things that are
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: flying just over the water at a rate of speed
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: which we don't exactly know how I was moving. No
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: visible forms of propulsion. Now, I'm going to give the
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: caveat that in many of these cases, what ends up
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: happening is it's a camera flare or it's you know,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: some sort of you know, tech tech, like some sort
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: of technical glitch, let's say, within the system. That's why
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: you need rigorous review of all of these things, and
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: you don't just put it to this side. But this
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: was an interesting video, definitely for sure. Let's go to
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: the next one, shall we. So what we have here
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: is the report of a UAP consisting of nine seconds
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: of video from an infrared sensor, again a border US
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: military platform in twenty twenty four. What is it? I mean,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: it's a bit hard to say, right, we can't exactly see.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: It's kind of blurry from everything that we're able to know.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, at first glance, it might look like almost
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: like the Space Shuttle something like that. It could be
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: a blend, right, but I don't think so, just because
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: of some of the things that have been ruled out
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: now in the past, and especially that's usually you're very
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: able to identify. However, I should again I always give
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: the caveat with these things. Sometimes it's a weather balloon,
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: now that's also been used as an excuse like at Roswell.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the next one, shall we. Okay, here
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: we have Northcom submitted a report here of a UAP
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: consisting of twenty one seconds of video from an infrared
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: sensor aboard a US military platform, again in twenty twenty four.
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: You know why these are interesting.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: To me is the windmill video and others is we
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: have had so many reports over the years now about
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: UAPs with no visible means of pulsion that can move
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: in all of these different ways.
• 52:39
  Speaker 5: And it's usually over bodies of water.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: And it's also they again this is not I know
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: this sounds crazy, but what the testimony that comes from
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: are the ability to move both underwater and over it, right,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: and so you actually have some reports right of things
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: going into the ocean or out of the ocean. And
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: so the fact is that you actually were able to
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: see some of these things very high, you know, over
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: the water and in a small type of oral least
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: small movement.
• 53:05
  Speaker 7: This is from twenty twenty four.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: This is twenty All of these were from twenty twenty four.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: That's actually what kind of made it interesting. I will say,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: there's several videos which are coming out in a new
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: documentary by Jeremy Corbel. He's got eight out of twenty
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: four videos which members of Congress want to be released,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: so those videos will all be able to see in
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: a documentary. And again, many of these are leaked or
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: provided to them, which they heavily scrutinize, and they do
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: so to get it out because of things like this
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: where they don't want it to be covered up. Many
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: others continue to say that there are better videos inside
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: of the Department of Defense which haven't been released or
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: the CIA, and some heard I've heard about these for years.
• 53:42
  Speaker 5: At a certain point, I'm not gonna lie.
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: You know, you're frustrated that they're not being released, but
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: so far, I mean, I wouldn't compare this to the
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: Epstein release. I wouldn't compare it to actually, you know,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: let's take the Epstein one as a good example. Why
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: did we ultimately get what we got with epsee, which
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: is not everything a huge movement behind Rocanna and Thomas
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: Massey to have a bill that was signed by Congress.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: Massey made a good point in his interview with Tucker
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Carlson is that in the long run, this bill survives
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: all administrations. It's not just a resolution. So even if
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: this current administration isn't doing what it's supposed to do
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: in the future, the future administrations still have to comply
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: with the bill.
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: Well, it's also and he told Ryan and me here
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: that it's prosecutable, right, So they added that in the bill,
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: which I think went really under the media's radar. That
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: was part of I mean, people were upset about the
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: bill because it had national security exemptions and the like,
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: and so we were talking to Massey about it, and
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: he said, well, if there's another administration that comes in
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: and as doggedly anti Trump, and they find evidence that
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: some of what Pambondi did not release was not national security,
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: was not relevant to national security, then guess what, you're
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: on the hook.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Still, Yeah, I think it is. Look, I just think
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: that that's good evidence. And there's a reason that almost
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: every bill like that hasn't moved through Congress. Yeah, So
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: to my UFO friends, what I would say is, we
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: don't really we don't rely on executive orders, we don't
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: rely on any of that. If you really want to
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: see something happen, then you're going to need a bill.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: And by the way, don't forget the JFK Records Act
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: was signed in what nineteen ninety I was going to say,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: a bill, even a bill, isn't necessarily going to get
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: you everything that you need. It's going to be a
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: long slog, all right, And so look, we got something
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: that's interesting, But did it prove you know, any, did
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: it prove really anything?
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: Not?
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Really got a few interesting videos out of it, and
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: you know that's good, but I'm not I'm going to
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: treat it with some of the skepticisms think it deserves.
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: I just want to say that video is from twenty
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: twenty four. As we're just talking about those videos, twenty
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: twenty four, JFK nineteen sixty three, we heard up until
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: what the Biden administration, actually early Trump and Trump two
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: point zero if I'm remembering correctly, that people alive could
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: be harmed by the release of the JFK files. And
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: so any bill that you get is going to have
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: national security exemptions, and you are going to hear the
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: same damn thing for the next one hundred years about
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: people who were alive or eighty years people who are
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: alive in twenty twenty four who could theoretically be armed
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: by real leases of things from twenty twenty four, let
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: alone nineteen forty seven. I'm sure they still have some
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: excuse why things from nineteen forty seven can't be released
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: because of people who are impacted affected potentially, so yeah,
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's just you'll always be putting together the
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: pieces of a puzzle without knowing what the picture in
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: the puzzle looks like, right, Like, you don't know the box,
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: and so you don't know when the puzzle is complete.
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: You don't know what the picture is. You're just assembling
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: all of the different pieces or.
• 56:25
  Speaker 7: Trying to, and some of them are to a different puzzle.
• 56:28
  Speaker 7: Some of them are fake pieces.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, some of them are decoy pieces. Very well said