Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / Every Bowl Pick Dec 31 - Jan 2 | Full College Football Predictions

Transcript

Every Bowl Pick Dec 31 - Jan 2 | Full College Football Predictions · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today, we're going through all eight bowl games from December
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: thirty first through January second, excluding the CFP quarterfinals. Welcome
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: in Winning Cures Everything. It's College Football Podcast. I'm your host,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on all the different socials,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: most active on X. I am back, I am alive.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: We got through with Christmas. I immediately got sick. I
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: don't know if it was exhaustion or what, but I'm
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: back and I'm ready to talk about some football games.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: So we are going over all eight college football bowl
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: games from December thirty first through Friday, January the second.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I already did a video for the college football playoff
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: quarterfinal games. That would be the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: the Cotton Bowl, and I'm missing one Sugar Bowl, No.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl. There you go.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Eventually I would get it, but regardless, there's another video
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: for those if you'd like to go and check those out.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Another podcast as well. Make sure you are subscribed to
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: the audio only podcast. I'm going to be putting up
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: audio only shows as well.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: The YouTube channel.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I'll be doing at least one video per week once
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: all of this gets done. Obviously, we have more ballgames
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: to discuss playoffs and whatnot, but much more. As far
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: as the record goes, I've made a lot of picks
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: on the show throughout this football season two thirty two,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: twenty four and three as of December twenty seventh, as
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: far as the bowl games and the college football playoff games,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: fifteen eleven and one on those, so we're staying above
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: five hundred. We want to keep adding to that record.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Let's see what we can do. Course, subscribe, buy Maycoffee
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: dot com, slash Winning Cures if you like the spreadsheets,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: and make sure you're subscribed to the channel, that you
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: like the video, and that you jump in the comments.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Let me know you're picked on these games. If there
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: are any if there's any information that I don't have
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: on these make sure and toss him in there.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: Help your fellow viewers out. But that said, let's get
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: to the games.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Wednesday, December thirty, first New Year's Eve at eleven am
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Central time, God's time Zone on ESBM. We've got Vanderbilt
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: and Iowa in the Rely Request Bowl, and let's start
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: off by talking about potential opt outs, injuries, et cetera.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Kurk ference, of course, came out said that he expects
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the roster to be intact for this Bowl game. The
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: cornerback TJ. Hall missed the last two games of the year.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Running back Xavier Williams he missed the finale Vanderbilt potential
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: opt outs tight end to Eli Stowers. The reports are
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: saying that he's going to opt out for the game.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: The quarterback Diego Pavia. I would imagine that he plays,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: but there's no real injuries. As far as that goes,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Iowa has potential opt outs. Defensive end excuse me, Max Llewellen,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: tackle Aaron Graves, center, Logan Jones, right guard at Cade Piper,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: right tackle Jennings Dunker, the safety savior in Wakpa, and
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: of course the cornerback TJ Hall, who missed the last
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: two games of the year with an injury.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Totally possible. There the projected spirit. I guess the.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I need the actual line, don't I. Vanderbilt was a
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: four point favorite on this and let's see. I'll find
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: the line here in a minute. I've got Vanderbilt by
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: three and a half on this an interesting number, to
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: say the least. My power rating has Vandy by half
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: a point the last four weeks. Though I always started playing
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: a lot better. Iowa minus five and a half. But
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Vandy did, of course, put on a show against Let's see,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: all right, so Vandy four to four and a half,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: that's what our number looks like. Forty six and a
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: half is our total on this and that has come
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: down drastically. But Iowa by five and a half. Eh, okay,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: all right, Vandy PPA number ten. That's their predicted points
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: added margin.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Not too shabby. They're pretty good.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: They're number one in the country in predicted points added
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: per drive, but they're number ninety nine on defense. Iowa
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: is the complete opposite, number eighty two PPA per drive
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: on offense, number fourteen PPA per drive on defense. So
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: the defense is really good against the pass, pretty good
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: against the run. Their number fifty seven and rushing success
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: rate allowed, but number thirty four in PPA allowed per rush.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Vandy is number two in PPA per rush, number twenty
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: four in rushing success rate ken Vanderbilt finish drives. They
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: are number one in points for scoring opportunity. Iowa's defense
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: is number thirty three. I think whenever Vandy gets into
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: scoring position they will be able to score here excuse me,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: special teams efficiency. Both of these teams inside the top
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: twenty five. Both of these teams are outside the top
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: forty as far as overall talent rank, so this is
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: a pretty good Bowl matchup. Iowa's offense not very good
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: throwing the football, which is a shame because that is
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt's weakness. The secondary has not been good for them.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: If you look at the there.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: We go all right.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: So if you look at the roster, if you look
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: at position groups, Vandy is number fifty two in defensive
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: back seven. Iowa is number eighty six. In skill talent
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Iowa number one nineteen and running backs Vandy number sixty one.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Linebackers IOWA number one. Offensive line. Vandy's defensive line number
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: thirty eight. So Vandy does have some talent that will
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: be able to slow down the run. Iowa number thirty
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: seven PPA per rush, number twenty one rushing success rate,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Vandy number twenty two PPA allowed per rush and number
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: forty five in rushing success allowed. Offensive lineyards Iowa number twelve,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Fandy number thirty. As far as Vandy's defense, Iowa is
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven in points per scoring opportunity. Vandy is
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: number seventy eight in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Now,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: how that flips is. Iowa is only number seventy five
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: and scoring opportunities per game, so they don't get a
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: lot of first downs inside the opponent forty yard line.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Vandy is number forty one at allowing scoring opportunities. So
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I don't expect for Iowa to get a ton of opportunities,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: but I think that they can cash in whenever they do.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: A lot of that will come down to turnovers, etc.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are number fifty five and turnover margin.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: They are both number twenty two and giveaways per game.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: They are both number seventy nine and takeaways per game.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Iowa is number one in the country in penalties per game,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Vandy number ninety three. A lot of this and this
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: is basically what all Vanderbilt games are. Can Diego Pavia
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: make place against Iowa. I think that's going to be
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit more difficult than it would be against
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: say another Big ten team. Right, Iowa plays very disciplined.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Diego has a way of getting you out of your discipline,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: but Iowa tends to stay in it. I do think
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Vandy is going to come out. I think they'll be
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: able to put up some points. But I also think
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: that Iowa was going to be able to run the
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: ball on them, and I think that, you know, when
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: it comes to special teams, et cetera, nobody really outduels
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Iowa as far as that goes, and I know they
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: lost their special teams coach. I don't know if he's
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: staying with them through the bowl game. Is he's going
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: to Michigan State with Pat Fitzgerald as an associate head coach.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: So I do think that Iowa hangs around in this thing,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: and this feels like a field goal game.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna trust the numbers here.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: It's got Vandy by three and a half in the
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: power rating has Vandy by half a point. Last four
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: has Iowa by five and well almost six points. I'm
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Iowa. I don't think they're gonna have
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: a ton of opt outs. I think they're going to
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: show up here and this will be a tight ballgame.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Phil goal either way gets us a cover. Give me
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Iowa plus four and a half. The Tony the Tiger
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Sun Bowl has Arizona State and Duke down in Opasso.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: This one at one pm Central Time, God's time Zone
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: on CBS, of course, and our number here, Duke minus
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: three is the current odds total of forty nine and
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: a half on that, and that's across the board. Basically,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I've got Duke favored by two. My power rating has
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Arizona State minus one and a half, and my last
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: four weeks actually has Arizona State minus eight. Now this
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: does include Duke's championship game, et cetera. A lot of
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: things had to go right for Duke to actually win
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: that championship game. Duke is number seventy two in PPA margin,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Arizona State number fifty eight. Let's take a look at
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: the transfer portal. Sam Levitt of course not play, he
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: hadn't played in forever. Josh Atkins, the left tackle, he's
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: in the portal. The cornerback Javon Robinson, he's in the portal.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Linebacker Tate Romney also in the portal. He was a backup,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: didn't play much. Jeff Simms is going to start at quarterback,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: but the freshman Cam Dyer is gonna get some reps
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: in the game.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: There are a.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Bunch of opt outs for Arizona State. The wide receiver
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson, defensive back Xavian Alford, Keith Abney, the cornerback
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: running back Leige Brown, right tackle Max iron Acker. Probably
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: didn't say that, right, Arizona State fans, you jump in
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: the comments. Let me know the linebacker Keishawn Elliott, tight
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: end Kmon Mattayer. Uh. There are also potential opt outs
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: defensive tackle CJ Fight, defensive end Prince Dorba, right guard
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Kyle Scott, safety Miles Rouser, defensive line Justin Wattley, and
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the linebacker Jordan Crook. And then, of course there are
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: injuries as well. The cornerback Rodney Bemage Junior, he hadn't
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: played since Week twelve, the offensive lineman Ben Coleman, he
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: was lost for the year in Week seven, and then
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: the defensive end Clayton Smith, he had knee surgery recently. Duke,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: they're starting right tackle Brian Parker. The second is out,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: the cornerback Chandler Rivers is out, and defensive end Vincent
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Anthony Junior is out. Darien Mensa is going to be back,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: so he is going to play. Manny Diaz said that
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: defensive end Wesley Williams, who declared for the NFL Draft,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: he is expected to play. And let's see the cornerback
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Camori Robinson. Missed the a SEC Title game, Defensive end
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Bryce Davis missed the a SEC title game, and the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: safety Terry Moore.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Has been out all year. He's going to be drafted.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: So okay, that was a lot to get over to
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: what we're looking at. The numbers would certainly tell you
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: to go Arizona State. But with that many opt outs
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: and whatnot for Arizona State, so many injuries, et cetera.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Who's got the better quarterback and it's obviously Darien Mensa.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: You've got multiple cornerbacks out for Arizona State, let's see,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: or multiple defensive backs.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: How's that.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: We won't say cornerbacks, but they weren't great stopping the
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: pass anyway. Like they were good, they weren't great, and duke.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: That's all they do.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: They throw the ball almost fifty four percent of the time.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: They were number twenty one in QBR, number thirty one
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: in yours per attempt, number twenty five, in passing success
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: number twenty nine, and passing explosiveness, and Arizona State is
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: around forty in all of those metrics. Passing explosiveness their
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven. But when you've got that many defensive
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: backs out, it's going to be interesting havoc. That's a
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: big part of this. But when you're looking at, you know,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: losing some potential defensive ends, defensive actly like defensive lineman
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: for Arizona State. How much havoc are they going to
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: be able to create? They're number fourteen and have it created.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Duke is number sixty seven and have it allowed? Do
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: you can't run the ball? That's what Arizona State defends best.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to see a running it
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: a whole lot.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: I'll say that.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: As far as points for scoring opportunity, who can finish drives?
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Duke is number twenty nine in points for scoring opportunity.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Arizona State is number thirty five in points allowed per
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Arizona State also outside the top one to
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: twenty five and special teams efficiency. Duke is a top
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: fifty special teams efficiency team. Both of these teams around
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: fiftieth in overall talent rank. Duke the slightly more talented team.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: As far as the defense is concerned, for Duke, they
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: are better against the run than they are against the pass,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: and Arizona State can't pass it. So is Arizona State
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: going to be able to run the football, probably not.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Arizona State number one eighteen in points per scoring opportunity.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Duke is number one twenty nine and points allowed per
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. So who can finish drives better? It's probably
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: going to be Duke in this spot five factors rank,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Duke is significantly better as far as raw five factors,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: but when you do five factors plus talent, you got
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: number forty seven and number fifty one. This Arizona State team.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: The numbers have not liked them all season long. I
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: mean just not even close. Arizona State is number ninety
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: eight and turnover margin Duke number twenty one. Duke does
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: not turn the ball over. There are number twenty two
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: and giveaways per game Arizona State number ninety seven, which
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: makes sense because Jeff Simms has played most of the
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: year and this is not a knock on the kid
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: per se. This is not me trying to bash him,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: but he tends to give the ball away, mostly through
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: fumbles like number one seventeen and fumbles lost per rush
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Duke is number forty three and fumbles gained per rush defendant.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: So you look at this and you're looking at you
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: know Arizona State with the with the better talent group
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: as far as position groups are concerned. But what does
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: that mean as far as the guys that are actually out?
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: This was Duke minus one and a half to start.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: It's out to three. Now, I can't believe it's not
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: over a field goal. I think Darien Mins is going
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: to have a field day here, and I.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Think that I think they're going to cover the spread.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Give me the Duke Blue Devils minus three the cheese
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: at Citrus Bowl two pm Central Time on ABC. You
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: got Michigan and Texas. Texas a seven and a half
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: point favorite, total forty eight and a half on this
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: and I Am not going to go through all of
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the opt outs and potential opt outs and everything else. Michigan,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: of course, their coach fired, Sharon Moore. They have Kyle
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Whittingham now he is not going to coach in the
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: bowl game. He is, well, Biff Pogi is going to
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: coach in the bowl game. I'll say that that'll be
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: the easiest thing to do. Michigan's got a bunch of
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: different injuries. The linebacker Houseman, the safety Curtis, the left tackle,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Evan Link, safety Rod Moore, the running back Justice Haynes.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Running back Jordan Marshall only played sixteen snaps against Ohio State.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Wide receiver Somage Morgan missed the final two games. The
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback mikey Keane won't be available for the bowl game,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: but we would expect the Bryce Underwood is going to play.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Then there's opt outs right edge Derek Moore, linebacker Barham,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the left guard El Hadie, and then of course with
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the Texas transfer portal quin trebon Weisner, the running back,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the running back CJ. Baxter, running back Jered Gibson, the
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: offensive lineman Connor Strow, and the left or the linebacker
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Lay However, you say that Texas fans correct me. Uh,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Then there's a bunch of opt outs as well. The
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: safety Michael taff the cornerback Mohammed, the cornerback Gilbo, the
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: linebacker Anthony Hill. Uh. He missed the final two games
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: due to injury, but he's he's not gonna play in
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: this both edges Trey Moore and Ethan Burke, the wide
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: receiver Dow and Dre Moore. Texas probably gonna be without
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: six or seven defensive starters here. And then you've got
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: some potential opt outs to defensive tackle Cole Brevard, right
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: guard DJ Campbell, left tackle Trevor Gooseby, tight end Jack Injuries,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: who says that he's.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Going to play. But we'll see.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: They fired their defensive coordinator, Pete Kwakowski. They hired Will
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Muschamp to be the new DC. I don't think Mushhamp's
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: going to coach in the bowl game. We'll see what happens.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: So these numbers that I have on your screen here
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: really mean nothing. I've got Texas favored by five. You
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: know the number is up to Texas minus seven and
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: a half. I've got Texas by five. My power rating
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: has Texas by two. The last four weeks actually has
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Michigan by eleven. Somehow, even though Texas played significantly better
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: against Texas A and M and whatnot. Arch Manning is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: going to play. I think Bryce Underwood is going to play.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: This is going to be interesting. Michigan special teams has
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: been awful. Number one twenty four. Texas is number thirty
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: three in that Texas more overall talent number three against
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: number nineteen, who is better at finishing drives Texas number
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: ninety eight in points per scoring opportunity. Michigan's defense is
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: number seventy two in points allowed per scoring opportunity, and
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: when you look at offensive red zone conversion percentage, Texas
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: number seventy one. They are number sixty four in red
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate. Michigan's defense sixty seventh, but they are
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: number seventeen in defensive red.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Zone touchdown rate allowed.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Michigan is not great at converting in the red zone
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: on offense, and Texas is number eighty seven and defensive
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate allowed.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: I'm curious. I think.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: This is just a guess because neither team has running
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: backs available. I think this thing could end up being
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: relatively tight. I think Biff is going to be able
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: to get these guys to show up and have a
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: little bit of pride about them. There's no sense in
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: going through what the numbers actually are because that's not
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: the teams that are playing. Texas did get better throwing
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: the football throughout the year, number fifty four in passing success.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Michigan's defense number one oh two against the pass, So
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Texas better at throwing the football and Michigan is actually
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: better at defending the run. On the other side. Texas
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: really good against the run. Now, obviously without your edge rushers,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: without your defensive tackle, potentially without you know, there's there's
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: things there, and you don't have your defense coordinator. Michigan
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: better as far as penalties per game, Texas better as
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: far as turnover margin. I think it's going to be
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: a tight ball game. So the fact that this thing
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: is up at seven and a half is pretty wild
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to me. I'm going Michigan. I think they show up.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: I think they got some pride about them. I think
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a lower scoring game. This
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: was a forty six for a total, and it is
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: all the way out to four eight and a half
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: at this point. I still think it's gonna be a
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: low scoring game. Like, yeah, these teams are probably gonna
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: have to throw more, but I'm not expecting a lot
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: of points. I just I don't think that's what we're
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: gonna get. So give me a Michigan plus seven and
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: a half to cover this number against Texas. I think
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: it ends up being a one possession game. I've got
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: a hook here, uh So I will go with the Wolverines.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Are you tired of sore knees or joints slowing you down?
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Ghost Leaves uses built in kinesiology tape technology to give
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: you support, reduce pain, and help you recover faster. Use
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: code WCEE for fifteen percent off over at ghost leaves
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: dot com. If you haven't already subscribed to the channel,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: like the video, and of course jump in the comments,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: tell me what I'm missing, tell me what your picks
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: would be, et cetera, And of course check out buy
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: me a coffee dot com.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: Slash Winning cures New.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Year's Eve, two thirty pm Central Time, God's time zone.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: On Then we got the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: and that is Nebraska against Utah. A lot of red
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be in Las Vegas for this one. Utah a
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: fourteen and a half point favorite with a total of
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: fifty and a half on this And yes, lots and
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: lots of opt outs and injuries and et cetera. Dylan
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Reyola not gonna play, he's out for the year. Defensive
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: back Malcolm Hertzog is in the transfer portal. The quarterback
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Marcus Devilla or Davila, he's in the transfer portal. That
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean he won't play, but even still Nebraska
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: opt outs. Running back Emmitt Johnson declared for the NFL Draft.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: The right guard Rouco Spindler NFL Draft, and he's got
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: a finger injury. There are potential opt outs for Nebraska.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Singleton, he's the safety. The left guard Henry loved Latowsky,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the edge Deson McCullough. He declared for the draft. He's
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: not on the depth chart as far as injuries. The
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: quarterback TJ. Ltti hamstring injury. The offensive tackle Gunner Gatula
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: last played in Week eight. Offensive tackle Teddy Perchotska last
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: played in Week seven. Rule doesn't know if Latif's gonna
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: be ready. If he can't go, they might be down
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: to Jalen Grahamstad not good. Nebraska did fight their defense coordinator,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: John Butler earlier this month. They hired the San Diego
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: State defense coordinator to replace him. Phil Snow is going
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: to serve as the interim and of course, Rule fired
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the offensive line and defensive line coaches, as well as
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: far as Utah is concerned. Left tackle kayleb Blomo he's
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: opted out. Right tackle Spencer Fano he has opted out.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Defensive end Logan Fano has opted out. And then there
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: are potential opt outs. Right the quarterback Devin dan Pierre,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: linebacker Lander Barton, the safety Tyl Johnson, quarnerback Smith Snowden.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: And you've got injuries as well. Defensive end John Henry
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Daily is out for the year. The wide receiver Ryan Davis,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: he missed the finale, so he is probably going to
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: miss here. The offensive lineman salatoa Moay, he missed the finale.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: He played three hundred snaps. There are two hundred nine
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: and nine snaps this year. Morgan Scalley is going to
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: coach in the bowl game. It was going to be
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Kyle Whittingham until he took the Michigan job. So now
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Morgan Scalley going to go on and hop right in there.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: This number opened at Utah minus fourteen and a half.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: It got all the way up to seventeen and a half,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: and then the Whittingham news broke and it's back down
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: to fourteen and a half total of forty nine and
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: a half. There, it's all the way up to fifty
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: and a half. So it went up a point. I
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: would expect that total to be lower. I am not
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: expecting Nebraska to be able to score very much. My
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread has Utah by seventeen point eight three
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: the last four weeks, I would have Utah by thirty
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: and a half power rating. I've only got Utah by ten.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: But that's based on overall talent et cetera. Utah number
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: thirty five and overall team talent at on three Nebraska
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: number twenty two. But when you start looking at the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: opt outs, at the injuries, et cetera, offensive tackles, guards,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: et cetera, there's not a lot of defensive linemen that
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: are going to be out for Nebraska. They are number
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: nineteen in rushing success rate on offense. They are number
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: one twenty or sorry, one ten in rushing success rate
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: allowed Utah. So long as the quarterback plays Devin dan Pier,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: they should be fine running the football. They they run
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: it over fifty eight percent of the time, almost fifty
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the time. They're number one in the country.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: And yards per rush. They are number six in rushing explosiveness.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: Nebraska cannot stop it. I don't know if Nebraska is
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: going to be able to get the ball back or not.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are outside the top seventy as
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: far as special team's efficiency, Utah number five and points
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. Nebraska's defense number one fifteen, Nebraska number
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: fifty five points per scoring opportunity that has declined significantly
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: without Riola, and Utah's defense is number thirteen. Let's make
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: this as easy as possible. I don't think Nebraska is
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: going to be able to score, and I don't think
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: they're going to be able to stop Utah from scoring.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: So and I don't think that Kyle Whittingham being gone
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: is going to be that big of a deal because
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: they all already knew that he was stepping down and
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: that Morgan Scalley was going to be their new head coach.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: They all know this staff, they all know what's going on. Now,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: there is a part of me that wonders, like Jason Beck,
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator, is going to Michigan from per reports, He's.
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: Going to Michigan with Whittingham. What does that mean?
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: And even if you do have a backup quarterback at Utah,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I still think they're going to be able to put
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: up points because they did it against Colorado. I mean,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: the backup quarterback was outstanding. But I think Devin Dampier
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: is going to play here. We'll see, We'll see what happens. There,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: but I this number is fourteen and a half. I
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: expected to go back up once people realize, oh wait,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Nebraska cannot stop the run at all, and that's all
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Utah does. So give me the utes minus fourteen and
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: a half. I think this could get really ugly, but
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: I will take Utah to.
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: Cover the number.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Here on to Friday, January the second, and we've got
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl RICE against Texas State.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: This one at noon Central time, God's time zone on
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: ESPN and Texas State a twelve and a half to
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half point favorite, depending on the book.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: And we've got a total of fifty eight and a
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: half on this Rice was five and seven on the year.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: There were five and six against the number five, six
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: and one against the number Texas State six and six,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: and then went four and eight against the spread.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: This year.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Rice zero to two in bowl games minus fourteen twenty twenty,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: and Texas State won and one against the spread in
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: bowl game since twenty twenty plus three point three, So
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Texas State shows up a little more in bowl games
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: than Rice has. Rice number one thirty in PPA margin.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Texas State is number thirty one. Texas State's numbers showed
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: that they probably should have been a little bit better
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: this year than they ended up being. This was better
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: than a six and six football team. Special teams efficiency
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: number sixty six for Texas State, number forty four for Rice.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Rice not great at really anything. They run the ball
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: almost seventy two percent of the time. Texas State is
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: not good at defending the run. The Texas State defense
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: is pretty bad, pretty bad. But the problem is that
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Rice runs it a lot, and they're still not very
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: good right they They're not going to be able to
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: hold the ball for a long time. They they're number
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: one twenty in pace of play. Texas State is number
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: twenty one. Now, if they can hold on to the football,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: if they can run it even a little bit, they
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: can keep it away from Texas State. The problem is
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Rice is number one twenty in PBA allowed per pass,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Texas State is.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Number twenty two.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: I'm I don't see how Rice stops Texas State from scoring.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: This line opened at ten and a half. It's out
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: to twelve and a half thirteen and a half, so
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: it's almost in no man's land. But offensives like Rice
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: is okay as far as success rate goes on defense,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: there are number fifty four and passing success allowed, but
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: they are number one twenty five in the yards allowed
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: per pass attempt, number one twenty four in QBR allowed.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Texas State is number nine and number eleven in those
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: and as far as passing explosiveness, Texas State number seventeen,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: RICE number one twenty three. I think that's the biggest
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: thing you need to know. Texas State number eighteen in
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. RICE is number seventy nine in
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: points allowed per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Rice
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: number one oh seven in points per scoring opportunity, Texas
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: State number one oh six and points allowed. So the
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: fact that this line is under two touchdowns, like my
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread has Texas State minus thirteen and a
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: half ish almost fourteen last four weeks, has got Texas
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: State by almost thirty. My power rating only has Texas
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: State minus ten. Let's see Texas State. As far as
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: the portal, running back Jalen Jingkins he's in the portal,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean he's not gonna play. And for Rice,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: the cornerback carried Crump, he got kicked off the team
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: in Week seven. The running back Dalen Alexander had seventy
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: four carries three hundred and ninety two yards. He's in
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: the portal, and their wide receiver Draden Dickman, he's in
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: the portal as well, So there's not a ton of
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: opt outs. Nothing too crazy here. I think Texas State's
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: gonna put up a ton of points. So I know
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: it's a big number, but the best number I can
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: get is twelve and a half. Me the Bobcats minus
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half. The AutoZone Liberty Bowl three thirty
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ESPN, and we've
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: got Navy and Cincinnati coming to Memphis for this ballgame.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Navy right now is a six and a half to
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: seven point favorite depending on the book, and a total
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: is a fifty three and a half to fifty four
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: and a half. On this it was a fifty five
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: and a half that has dropped a bit. Cincinnati opened
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: as the one and a half point favorite, now Navy
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: all the way out to a six and a half
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: to seven point favorite. As I mentioned, my projected stat
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: spread has Sincy minus three. My power rating has Sincey
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half last four weeks. I've got
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Navy minus seven. As far as Navy is concerned, you
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: got the linebacker job or sorry job Grant he missed
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: the final two games. The cornerback Oneha he missed the
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: final two games. And the tight end Cody Howard last
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: played in Week nine.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: And potential opt outs.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Although you know you rarely see this from service academies,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: defensive tackle Landon Robinson is a potential opt out. As
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: far as the Cincinnati transfer portal, it is bananas. All
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: the guys that are transferring. They took him off the
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: bowl depth chart. The secondary is gonna be Thinn So
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: Navy is gonna be able to throw the ball a
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: little bit here. But the starting quarterback Brendon Swersby is
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: not gonna play. The starting safety Harrison, He's not gonna play.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Starting safety, Gola Callard not gonna play starting safety. Sank's
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: not gonna play. Starting cornerback, Logan Wilson is not gonna play.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: The cornerback Arnold, the safety Barnes, depth, cornerback, Kay Stokes,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: depth safety, Willie Godwin, defensive tackle Kamari Burns, defensive lineman
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Michah Coleman. They are all in the portal. As far
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: as potential opt outs. The defensive tackle Dante Corleone, he's
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: not on the bowl depth chart.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: He declared for the NFL draft.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: And the linebacker Jake Golday, he declared for the NFL
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Draft and he's not on the depth chart, or sorry, he.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Is on the depth chart.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: So there's no real big injuries for Cincinnati, but they
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: got a bunch of guys that are just not going
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: to play here. And with Navy, I mean we saw
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: this with Army. They care, they want to be there.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Navy is let's see nine and two overall this season. Sorry,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: that was before the Army game. Three and seven against
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: the spread this year, so not good. Cincinnati seven and
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: five straight up this year and looked a lot better
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: until late in the season. Bowl games Navy one and
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: zero against the spread since twenty twenty, although I feel
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: like they've been in a lot more games than that.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati one and two against the spread in bowl games
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty minus five point eight. This is where
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the motivation stuff comes in, because Cincinnati should be favored,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: the offense has been better all year, all that kind
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: of stuff. But if you don't have your dudes, like
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: you don't have your starting quarterback and the majority of
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: your defense is not going to be there. And the
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: defense was bad anyway, but imagine a bunch of backups
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: that don't really care about playing having to go against
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: this option offense. Navy runs the ball over seventy six
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: percent of the time. They are number two in yards
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: per rush, number three in ppa per rush, number three
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: in offensive line yards, and since he was already number
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: one fifteen in offensive line yards allowed, this this has
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: all the makings of the Army Yukon game that ended
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: up what forty one to sixteen something along those lines, Like,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: I think Navy's gonna be able to put up some
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: crazy points. And Navy isn't terrible throwing the football, they
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: just don't do it a bunch. They're number two in
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: passing explosiveness. I mean, can you imagine you got everybody
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: up on the line of scrimmage and then you run
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: one guy out wide, Like, yeah, that's gonna be interesting,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: gonna be interesting. I'm surprised that this is not out
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: past a touchdown at this point. I don't think Cincinnati
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: cares about being there. And if they don't care, then
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: I'm expecting Navy to put up a bunch of points.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Navy minus six and a half. That's
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: the best number we can get right now, give me
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the Midshipman minus six and a half. Why struggle doing
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: everything yourself? On fiver you can hire professionals for just
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: about anything, marketing, editing, design and more.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: Save time, get it done right.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Click the link in the description to get started, stop
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: guessing and start winning. Stochastic provides advanced data and strategies
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: for DFS players and betters. Build my pros who know
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: how to find edges. Click the link in the description
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: and sign up today.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: Do me a favor.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: If you haven't, of course, subscribe to the podcast, leave
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: a nice five star written review at Apple Podcast, or
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: leave a comment on Spotify, etc. Whatever your podcast app
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: of choice is. Subscribe over there. I would love to
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: have you on the audio side because we do audio
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: only stuff as well, and you can only get it
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: over there, not here on YouTube, but you can get
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: it on the podcast. All the YouTube stuff ends up
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: going on the podcast anyway, so make sure you're subscribed
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: over there if you would so kindly. The Trust and
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Will Holiday Bowl. This one is seven pm Central Time
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: on Fox on Friday, January The second, This is Arizona
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: and SMU. Arizona is currently a two and a half
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: to three point favorite total of fifty one and a
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: half on this and my projected stat spread has SMU
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: minus one point eighty three. My power rating has Arizona
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: minus one point two the last four weeks, I actually
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: have SMU minus two and a half on this SMU
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: number fourteen and PPA margin Arizona number thirty three. Arizona's
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: defense is number twenty one, But would you believe that
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: the defense for SMU is better on a predicted points
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: average basis Number thirteen in PPA allowed per drive for SMU,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: number twenty one in PPA allowed per drive for Arizona.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Kind of surprising.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Straight the schedule for both these teams number sixty six
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: and number sixty three, so it's pretty even. Power rating
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: number twenty five against number twenty nine makes all the
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: sense in the world to me. Both of these teams
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: are outside the top one hundred as far as special
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: teams efficiency. SMU slightly more talented number thirty against number
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: sixty one for Arizona. Arizona potential opt outs the cornerback stukes,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: the safety Genesis Smith, and their right tackle Bounds didn't
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: play in the final two games, the nose tackle Saveyah
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: he last played in week eleven. And then, of course
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: they've got their guard Michael Wooton, who only played two
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: hundred thirty snaps this year. He is in the transfer
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: portal as far as SMU is concerned. They're outside linebacker
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: DJ Warner, He's only played two hundred seven snaps this year.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: He's in the portal.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: And then you've got potential opt outs the wide receiver Brinson,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: tight end RJ. Maryland, tight end Hibner, offensive guard Logan
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: par defensive lineman Jeff Mba, and safety Isaiah in Wacobia.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: Hope. Is that that right? Again?
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: SMU fans correct me in the comments. I would love
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: to hear exactly how you're supposed to say some of
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: these names. The quarterback Kevin Jennings is going to play
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: in this game. So that is why this number has
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: not gone past three. It's still sitting right there where
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: people are expecting it to be very, very close. Both
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: of these teams great as far as turnovers go, turnover
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: margin number eight for SMU, number one for Arizona, Arizona's
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: number twenty two, and giveaways per game but number two
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: in takeaways. SMU number eighty in giveaways per game, number
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: three in takeaways per game, Arizona better as far as penalties,
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: number forty six to number one oh seven. There, let's
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: start off with SMU. On offense, they're pretty good throwing
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: the football. That's what Arizona defends best. As far as finishing,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: SMU number fifty three in points for scoring opportunity, Arizona's
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: defense number forty three. There. On the other side of
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: the ball, Arizona pretty mediocre on offense. They throw the
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: ball more than they run it, which makes sense with
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Noah Fafida, and you're gonna be able to have some
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: success against this SMU defense, I would believe, because they
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: are not great at defending the pass. Number seventy eight
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed for SMU, Arizona number eighty two
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: in passing success rate. This is where you will have
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: success because SMU is number three in PPA allowed per
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: rush and they are number sixteen and rushing success allowed
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Arizona's number eighty nine in rushing success As far as
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: finishing drives, Arizona number eighty four in points per scoring opportunity.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: SMU is number nine in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: So this SMU defense is really good against the run
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: and they are okay against the pass.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: Five factors rank. Arizona is No.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Seventeen SMU's number forty. But when you take a look
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: at this, and yes there are some potential opt outs
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: for SMU, I get it. But with Kevin Jennings and
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: the talent that they've assembled on that roster, I think
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: they're excited about this opportunity. I think they want to
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: get this. And this was Arizona minus three and a half.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: It's at two and a half to three. Now I
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: think SMU shows up.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: I will take SMU.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be able to score some points
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: here and I don't know that Arizona will be able
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: to score on SMU. So with that, if I'm getting
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: a field goal, I'll go with the dog. Give me
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: SMU plus three. The Duke's Mayo Bowl seven pm Central Time,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: God's Time Zone on ESPN. We got five and seven
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State going up against nine win Wake Forest or
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: wanting to be nine win Wake Forest.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: Sorry they're eight and four. I thought they got that
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: last win of the year. I forgot about that.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: The number here is Mississippi State minus three to minus
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: three and a half depending on the book. Total is
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: fifty three and a half to fifty four and a
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: half depending on the book. I've got State favored by
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: two points. Here power rating has State favored by almost
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: two points, but the last four weeks I've actually got
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: wake Forest favored by seventeen. This wake Forest defense is legit.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: The difference is State is number thirteen in current strength
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: to schedule, wake Forest number seventy five, So there's a
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: huge difference there between the talent that these two teams
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: have played against. State is number twenty six and special
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: team sufficiency wake Forest number seventy. State is at number
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: twenty four and overall talent rank per on three Wake
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Forest number seventy one.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: But the wake Forest.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Defense is still a legit unit. The issue that you
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: might have here is wake Forest transfer portal. The defensive
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: tackle Ibarragba, he's in the portal. He might still play,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. And the wide receivers Barnes and Mays,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: they are both in the portal. The running back Demon Claiborne,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: he declared for the NFL Draft, so he may not
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: play for wake Forest. You've still got the right tackle Famo,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: and then the safety's Patterson Anderson that are potential opt
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: outs for this game. And then of course wake Forest injuries,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: the edge got Kuoth correct me in the comments, the
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: offensive guard George at Ste the wide receiver Michael Mays
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: that I just mentioned there. Of course Mississippi State potential
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: opt outs, the safety Isaac Smith and then the safety
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: Tony Mitchell is in the transfer portal. As far as injuries.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Linebacker Gullet last played in week twelve and the Mississippi
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: State fired the defensive coordinator Coleman Hustler. Zach Barnett is
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: going to return to Starkville. But we don't know exactly
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: who's gonna call the defense in this game. We don't
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: know who's going to start at quarterback for Mississippi State.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: This might be Blake Shapan's last game, so he could
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: be the starter, or Camaro Taylor who started against Ole
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Miss he could start at quarterback. So either way, they've
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: got experience there one way or the other. This is
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: interesting to see an eight win team that is an
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: underdog to a five and seven team that shouldn't have
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: even made a bowl game. But when you look at
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: the overall talent and whatnot. I mean, it does make sense,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: especially when you look at the strength of schedules. I'm
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: partially surprised at this, and yet at the same time,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: I feel like Mississippi State wants to be there. State
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: I think is gonna be able to throw the ball
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit here, and I think they're gonna be
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: able to run the ball a little bit as well.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: When you look at points per scoring opportunity, Mississippi State
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: number twenty three and wake Forest is number twenty eight.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: When you look at you know, special teams, et cetera,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: turnover margin that's better in State's favor, wake Forest number
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: one twelve and giveaways per game this year just gave
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: it away at the worst possible opportunity, and their offense
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: is not very good. They do run the ball, but
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: their number one sixteen and rushing success rate Mississippi State
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: is number one fifteen five factors rank, wake Forest is
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: significantly better. But when you do five factors plus talent,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: State number twenty nine, wake Forest number sixty seven. So
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: there's a huge difference there. Wake Forest number one twenty.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: In points for scoring opportunity, Mississippi State is number seventy
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: ten points allowed for scoring opportunity. I think that State finishes,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: drives better. I think Wake Forest will probably turn the
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: football over at some point. And I think that State
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: both teams I do think want to be there. I
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: just think State is significantly more talented. So I'm gonna
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: go with the favorite here. I mean, it's a Duke
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: Mayo Bowl, it's a big time spot. I'll take Mississippi State.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Best number I can get us three, give me the
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Bulldogs minus three. All right, let's recap this bad boy
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Iowa plus four and a half, Duke minus three, Michigan
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: plus seven and a half, Utah minus fourteen and a half,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Texas State minus twelve and a half, Navy minus six
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: and a half, SMU plus three, and Mississippi State minus three.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to the podcast, of course, make sure and subscribe
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: for the bonus content and to support the show. Help
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: you boy out go to buy me a coffee dot com,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: slash winning cures, the easyurl of course, BETTINGCFB dot com,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: and if you have not already, make sure you are
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: subscribed to the channel, that you like the video, and
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: that you jump in the comments and give me your picks.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Tell me where I'm wrong, tell me what information I've
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: got incorrect.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: I would love to hear from you.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: In any way that you want to. If you want
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: to reach out to me through email. Gary at Winning
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Cures Everything dot Com is the email. I am feeling
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit better, Thank goodness. I'm ready for some
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: playoff games or ready for more bowl games. It's gonna
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: be a fun week, but the clock is winding down
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: on the twenty twenty five college football season. So with
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: that said, let's get out of here for this one.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Take care of yourself, take care of each other. God
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: bless college football, and hopefully all of your tickets cash
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, subscribe,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: leave a review or comment, follow at Gary WCEE on X,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: and check out the web store.