Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / BREAKING: Market JUST Flipped 💥 Gamma Squeeze Crash? + Stock Market News 21 June 2024

Transcript

BREAKING: Market JUST Flipped 💥 Gamma Squeeze Crash? + Stock Market News 21 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I'm Felix here and good morning to you.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Everyone is starting to wonder is this the top of the market in videos Falling pre-market, it's down again.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: So is this the time to sell or to sell, or to panic, or to really, really panic, or is it actually something else and it's actually a glorious opportunity to make some money here?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through what's really going on here.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I've got some inside emails from some of the biggest investment banks out there that I went through today.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I'll show you all of that and my goal is for you to come out of this 10, 15, 20 minutes or so here to be the best and form the best out there in a position to make more money.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: That's really the goal.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Of course, none of this is financial advice, just an old banker sharing his thoughts and insights, and if you want to join me and learn how to actually make some real money potentially, then come and join me, either tomorrow UK time, or it's coming Tuesday the evening, 8pm Eastern time, and I'll show you how we did these returns in 2022, 2023.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: And this is June so far, and June so far is up $6,198.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I'm trading with about $30,000 here and sometimes actually with a lot less than that.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: And how many trades have we done this week?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Two Didn't do anything.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Am I going to trade today?
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: No, actually, I might take profits.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I'll show you a trade in a moment and a lot of the time people think, oh, you got to trade all the time.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: You got to be really busy as a trader.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Actually, no, like not trading is usually the most important thing to do.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: So if you want to see how I do that in like two hours a week or so, then come and join me.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Links down seminar and one for the one in New York Times.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So link is down below and you might not believe me on these trades.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: All right, there is always a.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I don't believe him.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Take a screenshot, hang on, take a screenshot.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: There you go, you got all the June trades.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I'll scroll up a little bit.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: There's some more June trades.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Take another screenshot and then you go into May, take some screenshots and calculate the bloody thing yourself.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: So my whole thing.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: We're always transparent.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I'll always show you everything you want to see.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Just ask.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: But let's go into a little bit of news, a little bit of trades, a little bit of real insight directly from Wall Street.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I'll show you where the source is from and everything else.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: But make sure you smash the you-know-what before we go any further.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: A triple witching day today and you'll see some headlines today.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Oh my God, it's the end of the world.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: It's not.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: It's got something to do with options, which is what I trade, and it basically means we have stock options, index options and futures options expiring all today, loads of them like $5.5 trillion worth.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: It's a staggering amount, isn't it?
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Sort of what Biden spent on an afternoon thinking about the Ukraine?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: There's got to be some hate for that comment, isn't there?
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: People get really strong feelings about wars for some reason.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: It's all about money, folks, that's all it's all about.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Nobody cares about the outcome, they just care about the money.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Money, folks, that's all it's all about.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Nobody cares about the outcome, they just care about the money, and that's significant.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Well, it basically means one thing, and this chart the idea was to make that clearer.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Looking at it now, I kind of get that.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really tell you that it's what it does Essentially.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: The market after today can move a lot more freely, so the market's been sort of locked in this fairly tight pattern.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: So for Monday, it can do this.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: If it wants to, it can go absolutely nuts.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So expect a bit more movement and up and down, which is one of the reasons I'm not doing any trades today, because it seems a bit silly.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: European economy is falling apart, apparently.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: The manufacturing and services PMI readings came in pretty soft, so UK sector also showing slower than expected growth, and President Emmanuel Macron is feeling very, very glum because he might lose that election that he called in a moment of sort of weird, like I don't know Napoleonic bravery.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Jean Moreau de Seychelles, that's a lovely name.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you tuning in again.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: You're becoming a regular.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for your time here.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Now, what does it mean, though?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Slowing economies in Europe and in the US, and we got some data out today as well.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Well, look at this Chicago Fed President, ostan Gulsby, which is an amazing name.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, have you ever met anybody called Ostan Gulsby?
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: That's brilliant, I love it.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: He said if inflation continues to cool as it listed last month, I'm ready to cut.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Barkin needs a bit more clarity, as in somebody needs to explain to him what's going on, but it's moving in the right direction.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Right Rate interest rate cuts are coming.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Something else moving in the right direction.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Trend alerts I sometimes show you.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: We send out emails every day with trend alerts like what's happening.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: We're about to put that inside trade vision in the screener and if you want to get access to that, this will continue updating during the day, twice a day.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Then you can see literally like is it on an uptrend, is it on a downtrend, how strong is the trend?
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: You'll be able to see that for everything in like one little thing there.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: So if you sign up for that now, you get it for free for 30 months and it'll be 30 days Slip of the tongue, 30 days.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: That would be very generous, wouldn't it?
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: And then it becomes part of your very small subscription amount.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: If you don't subscribe to it and you want to join it later, we'll charge you more for it.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: That's how we roll.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: So check that out.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: That's coming up.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Just go to trendvisionio.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Links also in the description.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Third links Amy, I've got a whole team in the Ukraine.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: It does matter to them, of course it matters to them.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: The human thing is the disaster.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: But to think that wars ever helped the people who it's being fought over is, unfortunately, not true.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Wars are fought for profit and it's not the people on the ground.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Who are going to profit?
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: The Ukrainians would benefit if this war were to stop.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: But yeah, anyway, strong feelings on that, I totally get that.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Now, are you feeling anxious?
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Are you feeling a little bit on the edge of your seat?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Because pre-market is looking a little bit, a little bit, you know.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Nvidia down about 2.6%.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, even the fat drugs are falling because everyone's staring at NVIDIA.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: They're too lazy to inject themselves, or however you get those out.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: And if you thought this channel was politically correct, you're on the wrong channel.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: We're not.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: We aim to offend everybody equally.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: That's sort of the plan, really, and you know you need a sense of humor if you want to enjoy this and enjoy life and enjoy the market.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So what's going on here?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: The VIX, which is the fear index, is the purple thing here that is going up, and the VIX index, the fear index, has a fear index.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So the fear index of the fear index, which is called the VVIX, is going up even more.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: The fear index of the fear index, which is called the VVIX, is going up even more.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Bankers are making money out of it and they're calling this something to do with gamma, and I'm not going to bore you to death with that, but here is a six-page email from Nomura today.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: The chap's called what's he called?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Managing Director, literally, of Cross-Ass asset strategy at Nomura very smart guy in New York.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: But there is one bit here that I thought was kind of interesting and he says the demand for call options remains beaucoup a lot.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Bankers have a strange sense of humor, and he lists a couple of them here.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: And how are they making money out of that?
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm making money out of it.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: And the question is really Bankers have a strange sense of humor.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: He lists a couple of them here.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: How are they making money out of that?
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm making money out of it.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: The question is really, are you making money out of it?
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Let me see if we can look up those trades.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Actually, can we see dark pool trades on VIX?
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I must say I've never looked that up before, but yeah, we can.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of core selling here.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: But what about the big ones?
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Some big big call option buyers coming in here, 2 million, 3 million.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: And that's exactly what I did, except I did it a week ago.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: And here is the actual trade.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Again, happy to show you the live screen, but I took a screenshot of it.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: So what did I do?
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I literally bought a call option on the VIX, on the fear index, because I thought it was going to go up as you guys go into that weird thing.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: You call an election and right now the trade is up 23% or $940, and it's a $4,000 trade.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So it's pretty sweet, right, nothing really to complain about.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I did no work for this except to set it up, which took me like two minutes.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So what am I going to do with that?
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I'll probably take some profits on it and then wait for it to calm down and then do it again.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: So are the trend alerts in Trade Vision right now?
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: No, no, no.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Launch is rumored to be somewhere between today and tomorrow, but this is the world of developers.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: It could be the day after.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So I would say Monday is probably a safe day to announce that.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Rune and Logan okay, you like it?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, manfred, you're one of the people who watched that little movie review we did yesterday.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we had some fun with that.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you gotta do fun stuff if you want to watch that.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: It's it's on the channel.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So how do you set this up?
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: How do you know to set this up.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Well, you really just gotta look at, like, what does what happens to the market again and again and again and again.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: The market is is actually very, very predictable.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Once you know what to look for, it becomes the same pattern over and over again and it's ultimately a skill.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And it's a skill you can learn, anybody can learn.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: And if you zoom out a little bit here on VIX, even just for the last what's that?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Two years, you see that most of the time we are higher than we are right now.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So right now we're let me just turn the background off there you can see it more clearly we're down here.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: So I set the trade up down here.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Because we were just down there.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: That's simple as that.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: And generally, elections are something that cause a bit of a ruckus and the market doesn't like a ruckus.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So the fear index goes up.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So the fear index goes up.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Very, very, very, very simple.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Alka, there's somebody with a sense of humor here as well, and these people think Germans, no sense of humor?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Right, we have no sense of humor.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Actually, we're terribly serious people.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Do you just sell the option whenever you are ready?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Yes, literally, whenever I could.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Literally I can show you the trade here.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: There it is.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I could literally just just I have a profit target on this one that might be a little bit greedy, that one.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I can literally just close the button and I can hit the hit review and it'll.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: It'll just close itself.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So literally anytime, anytime you want you can, you can close the thing.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: You don't need to hold on to stuff ever, and that's again one of the things people don't need to hold on to stuff ever, and that's again one of the things people don't understand about options.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn more about that and actually get a system like literally a three-step system, I apply every week or most weeks.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Sometimes I skip a week.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I don't do anything in like two or three hours a week.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Come and join me.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Links are down below.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: We're running literally two seminars this week which are going to be fun, so that's one way to make money out of it.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I think the trade is probably still valid.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Again, I'm not saying you should do it Now.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Some of you are always asking what should I buy?
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: So I thought I'd share with you what Goldman Sachs came up with today TMT, of course, technology, media, and I don't know what the last T stands for?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I was going to say something very rude there.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the last T stands for.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: I was going to say something very rude there.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So they say, while much of the focus at the top of the index has been on NVIDIA and AIBus, it feels like the pre-X action that's, price action unless it's a type of sherry was a reminder to not lose sight of the rest of the magnificent seven, as Google has quietly been flat for a month.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Of the Magnificent Seven as Google has quietly been flat for a month, meta flat since early February and Amazon flat since early March.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: They haven't participated in this rally, so I'm kind of with them on that.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I think if I had to buy something right now, I'd probably buy Google, meta and Amazon.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I think they're three brilliant businesses.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Google and Meta will benefit significantly from all the advertising that'll be wasted to get some chimp elected to the high office you call the White House, and Amazon is just generally an insanely amazing business and if you watched my robotics video the other day, they've got 750,000 robots working there right now.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Imagine what that's going to look like in five years or 10 years.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Do you think there'll be any people left in there.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: There'll be some, but not many.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Um, that's what we dutch people say a nerd.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I I know germans, but you know the truth is actually germans generally have no sense of humor.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: I was.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: I was lucky I.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I was evicted at the age of about 15 and moved to the uk.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: So I learned through lots of beatings that I had to acquire a sense of humor.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: This is my June so far $6,198 up on 30K and we only traded.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: We traded a little bit the first week here.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Well, it's week two, it's really week one, and then a little bit week two, and then I've done two.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: It's really week one and then a little bit week two, and then I've done bugger all this week.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I've done two trades on Tuesday.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: That was about it actually.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: That probably is double counting.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I think that's just one spread.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I did one trade, so it's probably actually less trades than what you're seeing hereic ads too.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Yes, logan, absolutely, absolutely.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: There will be an olympic in paris which will be, I'm sure, the most magnificent olympic the world has ever seen.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I hope that's true.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Um, I don't know if that is true.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think the japanese did it quite well without an audience.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I read the email says not.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Uh, no, seriously, you don't want me to do that.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: It's a.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: It's an interesting piece, but it's uh, it's a little bit more in depth than I think most people can stomach.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: It's full of lots of charts and lots of talking about things like gamma and vol correlation and and this is honestly the kind of stuff we talk about in our real advanced options program for people who've traded a couple of years, and we've got a bunch of market makers who will walk you through this.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: But no, if you start off with this, you're just gonna you're just gonna jump out of a window and never, never, trade again, and I don't want you to do that.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I want you to actually be motivated to make some money.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: So come and join me tomorrow.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: We'll talk through some stuff that's actually comprehensible.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Um phoenix friends at org slash webinar link is down below uh.