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Friday MLB + WNBA Best Bets 7/11/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own seven
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Bruins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March eight? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Man's back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: could possibly have with you, as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: The worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: tod This is better off dead. Friday, June eleventh. July eleventh,
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Holy shit, I don't know what day is ever anymore?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Man, The intro does not lie.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: July eleventh, Holy shit. Yesterday we skipped the plays yesterday
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: on the show. Didn't have any plays yesterday. It was
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: a board that I really didn't like. But I will
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: give out plays today, which I am continuing to clarify.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: I'm not actually betting these right now, as I'm trying
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: to free up some money and decide what I'm gonna do,
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: although because of the big beautiful bill, it might mean
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: that betting is just not gonna be an option anymore.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Once twenty twenty six starts, We're gonna have to see
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: what happens here. But I am gonna give out a
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: few plays here on the show today. I will give
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: out a w NBA side and two mlbat totals. How
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: about that and over and an under, And of course
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: the over is gonna be going over a high total
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: and the under is gonna be going under.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: A lots total. Because that's that's the way that it
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: works out. Man.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: The oddsmakers, they know what they know what they're doing.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: They're not giving away free money. Uh let's uh, let's
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: jump right into it.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Whatever. Let's look at the w NBA.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: We have two games here, and I'm gonna give out
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: a play on the first game here, which is Atlanta
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: and Indiana.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say take Indiana. Either lay the minus one
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and a half maybe you.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Can find a better number than that out there, or
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: money line minus one twenty five. Of course, if they
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: win by one, you're gonna want the money line. I
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: think minus won twenty five is the best I saw
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: out there. Maybe we should switch this to a money
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: line play.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: I got to decide, but Indiana is what I'm gonna
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: recommend here.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: They're hosting Atlanta and on the surface kind of looks like, well,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, why would you want to play Indiana
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: as a favorite when they're below five hundred.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has a good record they're playing.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I get all that, Indiana, the record is
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: not really indicative of what they actually are because Caitlyn
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: Clark has missed a lot of time. And now Caitlyn
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Clark came back claim back. She's gonna be claiming it
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: back tonight, man, claiming her supremacy back tonight. She came
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: back in the last game. And I told you on
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: this show that is a reverse injured player spot. I
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: should have given it out as a play, man, because
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: it seems like every best lean that I have in
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: the WNBA, I don't give it out as a play
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: and it still wins.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm in tune with the WNBA, man.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: Right now, I'm in sync with the women, man, like
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: our periods are syncing up. It's like I live with
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: these women right now. Golden State blew out Indiana in
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: that game, man. That was Clark's first game back. And
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: I always mentioned in many sports, every sport this basically
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: applies to some extent or another, but especially in the
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: sports that are more heavily focused on the individual, when
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: you have your star player coming back, the line is
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: gonna have to adjust to accommodate for that player coming back. Oh,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: Clark is coming back, when that means Indiana is gonna
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: have to be a bigger favorite right against Golden State.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: But that first came back a lot of times. She's
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: trying to like ramp up again. Sometimes the chemistry is
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: not there and the value is to go against that team.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: And I said that, I didn't expect it.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: To be almost a twenty point home loss for Indiana,
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: But I think what that's gonna do is give us
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: some value here.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: The Valkyries actually have not really been that bad this year,
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: but man, Indiana had a bad game. They had nine
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: points in the second quarter, ten in the fourth, only
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: twenty nine in the entire second half.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Ridiculous, But I think this is an outlier man, Indiana.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: They were off to a decent start in the game
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: and they completely imploded. They just had a really terrible
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: shooting game for the most part, man, which I think
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: these are some outlier numbers here. Thirty point nine percent
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: from the field, to me, it's unlikely they're gonna shoot
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: that poorly again, twenty two point two percent from three
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: is pretty low as well. So Indiana just had a
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: really bad game that I think was an outlier game.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: I think they are gonna bounce back. They're staying at home.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: That was just an embarrassing loss. Yes, Atlanta's gonna be
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: focused on them because they are. They know they're gonna
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: come in and face Caitlyn Clark. But Indiana just beat
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: that same Golden State team, So I think the public's
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: gonna kind of look at this, see, oh, Atlanta has
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: the better record. They just beat Golden State, who just
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: destroyed Indiana. And those games are at Atlanta and Indiana,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: so those games are both road games for Golden State.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: So the public's gonna do that like ABC.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Thing, the transitive thing, and be like, well, that means
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is easily gonna win this game, right, and you're
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: giving me like an underdog price here.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: It looks so easy.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: To take Atlanta in this game, and I'm saying that
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: is not the way to go here, Atlanta. Yeah, they
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: blew out Golden State. I mean, Atlanta was the home
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: favorite in that game. They won and covered. Not really
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: anything exciting there, not really anything any sort of like
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: outlier there as far as that game basically went as
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: it was expected to go. Now, yes, Atlanta's starting a
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: road trip. A lot of times you are focused to
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: start a road trip. But again, I think Indiana is
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: being undervalued right here. I think this is a big
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: bounce back spot for them off the embarrassing loss thing.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: There is a little bit a bit of value in
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: the number.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: And Atlanta did beat Indiana the last time they played them,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: I believe, right. I think there were they played twice.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: They played three times. Actually they've zigzagged. So Atlanta won
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: at Indiana really early in the season, and then I
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: recommended to play on Indiana in the next game, and
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: Indiana did win at Atlanta. So it was a quick
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: road revenge spot there, nice zigzag spot, and then the
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: series zigzagged again. Last time they played each other at Atlanta,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Atlanta destroyed Indiana, and I believe that was a game
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: without Caitlin Clark. Let me see, let me just make
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: sure of that. Yes, so Caitlin Clark did not play
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: in that game. Atlanta I believe was somewhere around a
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: five point favorite in this game. Let me just make sure,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: Uh yeah, five and a half. So Caitlin Clark did
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: not play in that game. But it's still Indiana's probably
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: gonna remember that game. Oh, Atlanta destroyed us the last
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: time so I think that's a little bit of an
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: extra motivator for Indiana here as well. Indiana will have
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: the adjustments to make Atlanta did not have faced Caitlyn
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: Clark in that game, and it was Atlanta minus five
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: and a half. There should basically indicate that Atlanta should
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: be You probably only get about two.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Points for home court in the WNBA.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: To be honest, so that line would kind of indicate
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: maybe this line is well, I don't know, maybe you
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: get two and a half.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe, so maybe this line should be.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: Right around where it is Indiana being well, it being
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: close to a pick them.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: So I don't know.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: I thought there was more line value in Indiana than
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: there was when I was like thinking about it in
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: my head. But I still think the spot is right
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: for Indiana. I would play the short line on this play,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: either than the money line or the spread.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: In this one. Maybe the line's a little bit skewed towards.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Indiana just because Kaitlin Clark is back, But after they
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: got blown out in the last game, you gotta they're
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: gonna come with way more effort in this game, and
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Clark will give you a better game than she did
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: in that previous game. She's putting up crazy numbers for
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: the most part this year, man, but she's got to
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: be healthy, and I think with that game under her belt,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I think she's gonna put up a better performance than
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: whatever she did in the last game.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I think she had like twelve points.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: She averages more than that, So I think we're gonna
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: get a better game out of her this time. If
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: you want to go clark over a point total or something,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: I think that might be worth the look as well.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna recommend playing Indiana in that game, either
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: on the money line or the minus one and a half.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: Let's run down the Major League Baseball card here, all right,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: we're going in sequential order here, man, it's a big
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: MLB slate for Friday. Well, actually, I'll go slightly not
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: a sequential order. I'll talk about this doubleheader first between
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: Cleveland and the White Sox. The game got rained out yesterday,
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: so we do have rested bullpends at least, But I
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: don't love either of these bullpens, so I'm gonna keep
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: in mind here, mediocre Cleveland bullpens in a pretty bad
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: White Sox bullpen. Now, I handicapped the game yesterday it
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: was gonna be Logan Allen against Jonathan Cannon. But now
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: the two of them have been separated, keeping them separated.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Now we split up the fight, so they're gonna be Uh.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's any history between the two.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: I'm just I'm just bullshitting here, but I think they Yeah,
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: they their games are gonna They're not gonna oppose each other.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Now they're playing in different games now of the doubleheader here,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: so the first game is gonna be Logan Allen still
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: for Cleveland.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: Four point seven e R for him on the season,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: one point four to three whip, not amazing numbers. I
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: mean that whip is certainly too high. He's been a
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: little bit worse on the road four point two to
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: three road era. Hasn't been giving up a ton of
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: runs though I think I pointed this out yesterday, giving
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: up three or fewer earned runs in his last five starts,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: so he's at least keeping his team in the game,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: although again he's still putting too many guys on base
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: walking to apiece in the last four starts.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Not exactly great. Up against the White Sox's.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Numbers aren't good either, even though they're not a good offense.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: Forty six at bats, three twenty six average allowed, eight
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: twenty four oh ps. Those are not good numbers either
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: in the matchups. So I don't really love Allen here.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Normally I'd be like, well, yeah, the White Sox have
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: the pitching advantage here because I like Shane Smith.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: He's a talented young pitcher. A couple of problems with
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: that Smith.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: After he had a really nice start to the season,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: he's dropped way off, man. I think he's just not
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: used to the grind of like starting this many games
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: in a row.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: His ERA is up to four point two one point
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: three to three whip.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: He is a little bit better at home, but his
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: home road splits are like pretty much insignificant.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: But he's been way.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: Worse over his last four starts. He's allowed five or
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: more earned runs in each of the four. The White
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Sox have lost all four of the games. His strikeout
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: walk ratio has gotten way worse as well.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Things just are not looking good for him, man, he' said,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: what is that?
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: Twelve strikeouts and ten walks over those last four starts
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: a very bad ratio. He's allowed of home run and
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: each of the last three starts as well. Hasn't gone
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: past four and two thirds innings in any of those
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: starts either, So he has basically fallen off a cliff man.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: He's completely fallen off, doesn't show signs of coming back.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: I mean you could maybe argue, well, he faced Arizona Dodgers.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I mean those are good offenses. Saint Louis decent offense
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Cors Field was his last downing, even it's a bad
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Rocky offense.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: But pitching a course field isn't exactly the easiest thing
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: to do, so maybe you could say, well, maybe he's
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: gonna have an easier time of it against a pretty
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: weak Cleveland lineup. Maybe, And he has pitched against Cleveland
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: already this year, which is good and bad. The good
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: is that he did well in that game. In seventeen
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: at bats five to one strike a walk ratio, Cleveland
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: only had two hits, no extra base hits or at
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: least Cleveland's come to one to eighteen batting average two
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: eighty four oh ps. So Smith basically completely shut down
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Cleveland in that game. But it does mean that Cleveland
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: has now seen him before, so part of the advantage
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: that Smith had in that first game is that Cleveland
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: and I had seen him before, but now that advantage
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: is gone because they did see him already this year,
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: so they're gonna know a little bit more.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: What to expect.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Although all that being said, I still actually kind of
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: prefer Smith over Williams. But Williams has been in the
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: slightly better recent form or ex seriously not Williams.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Allen has been in the slightly better form.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: But the market Reid is saying to fade Cleveland here
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: Man Cleveland seventy nine percent of tickets, only fifty two
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash. They're a public road favored in
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: this first game. In both games actually they are up
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: for minus one to sixteen to minus one eighteen.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: So the market Reid is saying to take the White Sox.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: Actually, I think in both games as the home underdog here,
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: and at least the one thing that you do get
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I do think Smith has a higher ceiling
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: than Alan, so at least there's that.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: I still worry about it.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: He has the better matchup numbers, but he's not in
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: the better recent form. The other thing that you do
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: get the benefit of if you're fading Cleveland, those they're
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: coming off.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: A really crazy sweep.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: Of the Houston Astros, which I pointed out yesterday, So
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: they could be in a little bit of a letdown spot.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe not really totally taking Chicago seriously here because they're
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: such a bad team, So that might come into effect
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: in this afternoon game as well. Then they are playing
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: the second game as well. Gavin Williams, who I just
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: mentioned by accident, is going to be pitching in the
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: second game. I could fuse him with Logan Allen Man
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: because their numbers are so similar similar they both have.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Ok e ras and terrible whips.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Williams has a three point six one ERA one point
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: four to one WHIP. He's been slightly worse on the
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: road four point two road ERA. Had a good start
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: last time out against Detroit, which is pretty impressive, shutting
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: them out and only along one hit and six innings
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: eight strikeouts three walks is too high though. That's where
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: the problem comes in with Williams Man again. In the
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: prior to starts, he had allowed seven ear in runs
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: across eleven innings, which is not good. Over the last
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: four starts five starts, excuseually, he's walked three or more
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: in the last five starts so it's not all good
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: for Williams. Here Man again, you can't put that many
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: guys on base and continue to get away with it.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Even though Williams was inducing.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: A lot of ground balls for a while there, especially
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: in the month of June. So that kind of helps
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: guys that walk too many guys if they're getting a
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: lot of guys to ground into.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Double plays and stuff. But I really just.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Don't think it's that sustainable of a thing to do,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: so I usually try to go against guys with whips
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: like this, and just like Logan Allen, Allen Williams has
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: bad numbers against the White Size du It's like these
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: guys are in the same pitcher only fourteen at bats
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: a two to two strike out walk rasue is not good.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Three point fifty seven average against in nine thirty eight ops,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: so Williams doesn't have good numbers there. And Jonathan Cannon,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: who was gonna pitch yesterday, is pitching the second game
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: for the White Sox. His numbers aren't good this year though,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: four point five ERA, one point four to six whip
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: very bad. He's been better at home though, three point
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: three eighty R I mean over his last few starts
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: and he's just not going that deep into most of
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: these outings. I mean, I don't know what to say
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: about that man. Prior to his last start, where he
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: did okay at course Field, but he only had one
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: strike on two walks, which is kind of damning. The
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: previous two starts, he only went three innings in each
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: of them and walked three guys in each of them,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: which is not a good sign. So I'm not ready
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: to trust Cannon really at all here against Cleveland.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have good numbers.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Thirty six at bats, three thirty three average, one thousand
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: and thirty nine oh ps, three different hitters of homered
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: off him Jones, Kwan, and Manzardo, a nine to four
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio. So in the second game, the
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: market is also saying to take the White Sox. Cleveland
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: has seventy three percent of the tickets eighty nine percent
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the White Sox, though Cleveland down
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: for minus one thirty five to minus one twenty nine,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: So similar starting pitchers for Cleveland in both games, similar
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: market read in both games. In the second game, though,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm almost tempted to say over in the
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: second game, even though we don't know what's gonna happen
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: with the bullpens in the first game.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: They're not good bullpens.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: You're probably gonna see some bullpen usage in the first game,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: so you're gonna have bullpens used coming into Game two.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: The starting pitchers both look pretty untrustworthy in Game two
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: total sitting in eight, although we see eighty three percent
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: of tickets and eighty three percent tickets on the over,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of the cash on the under, so
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: the market read is almost looking like it's an under game,
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: and the total in the first game is actually higher.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: It's up to nine, and the money's actually coming in
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: on the over in the first game. I don't know, man,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: I kind of would be leaning towards an over in
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Game two, though, though certainly I'm not recommending a play
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: on this.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Zach, what's up, man? There is money to be won today,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: that is true.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: I will give you on what I think my best
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: baseball looks are here.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: The Cubs are playing the Yankees. Here.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: The Yankees played yesterday and to extra innings. Cubs also
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: played yesterday, but they had a much easier game. They
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: blew out Minnesota, and they played earlier, so the Yankees
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: are at a rest disadvantage, although Chicago was traveling in
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: from Minnesota, so Chicago does have a travel spot here,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: but they didn't have to use that much of their
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday. Yankees had to use a little bit more
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: of theirs because they had a close game and actually
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Seattle blew I believe, a five to nothing lead in
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: the eighth inning. I'm pissed about that because obviously I
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: said Seattle was my lead in that game yesterday, but
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: it was mostly based on the starting pitching. So first
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: five innings Seattle would have been a winner, I believe yesterday.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: But I kind of liked a full game because I
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: didn't love the Yankees bullpen set up in that game.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: I liked wu Seattle completely imployed and blew the game.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: Gave up five runs I think in the eighth and ninth,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: and then another run in the tenth to lose the game.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: Just absolute bullshit there from a Red Sox fans perspective there.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: But the Yankees played late later into the night last night,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: so that is a factor, whereas the Cubs played a
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: little bit earlier, I believe in the day yesterday. I
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: think they might have had an afternoon game, which allowed
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: them to travel out here. So even though the Cubs
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: had travel the Yankees, I think we're in the worst,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: the worst of the two bullpen spots here. The problem
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: is Chicago's going with a bullpen game here.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: So that's the big problem with the What are you
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of these guys? I don't know.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: Chris Flexen is gonna be the starter here. I think
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: he may have made the All Star team too, because
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: he's actually been really really good out of the bullpen
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: this year. Point eight three ERA and point eight to
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: six WHIP on the season, really nice numbers there for Flexen.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: But he's actually making a start here. He's gone a
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: few innings in a couple of his outings this year.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is low though.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: He's not really a strikeout guy, which is kind of
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: questioning because usually when you have a guy who's a
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: reliever that has really good numbers like that, you usually
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: see that they have a high strikeout rate. He is
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: not a strikeout pitcher, so that's a little bit odd
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: of Flexin's been around for a while, so he kind
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: of know what he is.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: He's not really a strikeout guy.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: So this season has been kind of an outlier for him, really,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: but he's not allowing a lot of hits, not alonging
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: a lot of hard contact, not alowing a lot of runs.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: So that's good.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: But you're only gonna get probably a few innings out
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: of him at most. I would expect probably maybe he'll
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: get you about three innings and then the Cubs are
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: gonna turn it over to the bullpen. So I don't
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: really know what we're gonna expect from him we're gonna
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: get out of him. Up against the Yankees, he's done
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: pretty poorly in his career. Forty four at bats, seven
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: to seven, strike out walk ratio. Judge is hammered him
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: three for six with two home runs. Christiam Is two
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: for four on the home run Cole Schmid four for twelve.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: None of this is good. They have a three sixty
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: four average against him, seven to seven, strike out walk ratio,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: one thy sixty five ohps, so flexen while he's in there,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, he might be seeing his era and whip
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: rise there man.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: So I just don't like how the sets up for
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: the Cubs.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: Man, even though the Yankees, I would say that if
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: the Cubs had a legitimate starter pitching in this game.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: We might be looking at the Cubs having an advantage here,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: but I think that advantage is just a race by
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: the fact that they're going with a bullpen game, which
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: is very unfortunate because the Yankees. I mean, this is
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: a tough matchup here normally right for the Yankees. This
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: looks like it might be a World series preview. This
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: is gonna be a really hyped series over the weekend
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: going into the All Star break here, because I think
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: the All Star Break happens right after these weekends. This
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: weekend series is over, but very unfortunately and again unfortunately
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: for me as a Red Sox fan wanting the Yankees
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: to lose, I don't think it's really gonna happen in
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: this game with the Cubs starting out the series of.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: The bullpen game, I mean, come on, man.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: Yankees have one of their better starters on the mound
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: as well, with Radon three point three ERA, one point
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: zero three whip.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: He's having a good season.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: He's been good both home and away, doesn't really matter,
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: although he did have a bad start last time out
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: against the Mets. Gave up six runs in five innings,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: three walks, two home runs, four strikeouts, only give up
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: five hits, but his walk rate has been a little
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: bit of a concern recently, walking six guys over the
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: last ten innings across the last two starts. The Yankees
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: have actually lost five of his last six starts, some
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: of it because he wasn't getting that much run support.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: He wasn't that bad in all those starts, but he
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: is pitching a little bit worse than he was early.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: In the season.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: He's still good, but he's been a little bit mediocre
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: as of late.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Up against the Cubs.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: In his career, he's been pretty good though, in seventy
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: three at bats twenty eight to seven, strike a walk
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: ratio two thirty three average, six to ozho one ops.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: So overall, I do think the Yankees have the edge
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: in this game. Man, you got redone going up against
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game, which I think kind of eliminates any
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage the Cubs might have in this game.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I think it would be Yankees in some form more
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: past the game.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: They're down for my just one eighty in one to
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: seventy three, though fifty four percent take us fifty seven
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: percent of cash coming in on the Yankees money looks
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: like it's coming in on the over and on the Yankees.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Even though the money line dropped a little bit, it's
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a price to pay on the Yankees.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Laying a run line at home with the Yankees, I mean,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: you could do that, and you need to win by margin.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: But they if they're ahead, of course, they won't bat
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: in the ninth in it, which is a little bit
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: of a concern if you do that. Maybe the better
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: way to look at this, because it looks like it's
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: a high total, is maybe to go with the side
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: that you prefer, which is the Yankees, although I don't
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: want to prefer them, that's just where the numbers lead here.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe you take the Yankees to go over their team
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: total and then you don't have to worry about what
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: we're doing own might do in this game. Just take
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: the Yankees to get hits off of this Cubs bullpend
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: game here and get some runs off of them. Might
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: be the way to look at it. Although you need
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: them to score a lot of runs. But the Yankees
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: offense has been scoring again recently, so something like that
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: might be the way to look.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Baltimore and Miami, this almost.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Reached the level of a play for me, I was
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: gonna recommend a play on Miami as the money line
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: underdog Miami. They played yesterday they got shut out by Cincinnati.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Miami had been on fire recently, winning a lot of
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: road games as an underdog, which was definitely unsustainable. But
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: the Marlins did have their worst pitcher on the manyas
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: or one of their worst pitchers, Quantroll.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: He didn't do well.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: They lost the game six nothing, which does mean the
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: Marlins didn't really have to use their better relievers in
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: the game. So I think this game sets up better
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: for the Marlins because Baltimore even though yeah, they're not
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: traveling Miami's having to travel in from Cincinnati. But Baltimore
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: played two games yesterday, man, so Baltimore played the doubleheader
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: and they actually swept the doubleheader against the mat That's
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: big wins for Baltimore. So I think Baltimore is in
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a letdown spot man, after doing that.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: They might not totally pay attention to Miami here. And
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: they played two games as opposed to Miami playing one.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: So I think the rest advantage is on the side
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: of Miami as well, even though they have to travel
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: and on the surface, I like Miami's starting pitcher better too,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: and I don't like either bullpen at all. I think Baltimore,
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: even though they use a ton of their relief pitchers yesterday,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: their bullpen is already bad, and I think it's at
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: a disadvantage just because they had to play two games
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: and Miami only played one. So I think Miami has
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge shockingly in this game. And I to me,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: I think they have the starting pitching ats too, because
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: you know me, if you watch my show, Edward Cabrera
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: is the much more preferable pitcher over Dean Kreamer. Cabrera
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: is starting to pitch quite well here. He might he
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: might be a trade target at the trade deadline, man,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: if Miami is gonna be selling, but we'll see him.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: He's starting to do well. Three point three three ERA
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: one point two to three whip. I've always mentioned him
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: as a guy that has a high ceiling because he's
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: strikes out a lot of guys. He's done a little
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: bit worse on the road, but still three point six
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: to seventy IRA is still pretty good. He hasn't allowed
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: more than two earned runs in any start going all
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: the way back to mid May. And he hasn't allowed
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: more than three earned runs and any start going back
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: to the start of May, so he's actually been really
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: getting the job done. Miami has won a lot of
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: his starts over that span. They've won seven of his
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: eleven starts, so this bad Miami team has been winning
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: behind him. He went seven innings a piece in each
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: of his last two outings with an eleven to one
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio, only long two runs combined seven
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: hits combined over that stretch in those two starts in July.
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: He is definitely in good form right now, man. So
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: I do like Cabrera up against Baltimore decent. Well, I
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: don't know about decent, but his numbers are, I mean,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: they're okay against Baltimore. In fifteen at bats he saw
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: him to have two sixty seven average, which is pretty good.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Somewhat high eight eighty eight ops though, because he has
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: a four to four strike a walk ratio which isn't
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: that great, and Stallings does have a home run often.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: But overall, I think Cabrera should be in line for
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: a good start here, man. I mean, that's a small
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: sample size, so you can't draw that many conclusions from that.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: And he's been even though I am going to be
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: drawing some conclusions on one of these sample size as soon. Cabrera,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: though I expect him to do pretty well here. On
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: the other side, Dan Creamer is pitching. You know, I
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: don't like him. I mean, his numbers aren't good, four
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: point five to three ERA, one point three two whip
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: hasn't been very good. But my hesitation on Miami here
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: is that Creamer has actually been way better at home
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: this year two point three seven home ERA, so he
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: has actually been way better at home. His last home
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: start was good, it was a seven in he shoutout
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay. His last owning was terrible, but it
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: was at Atlanta. Gave up two him runs five and
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: runs eight hits in four and a third. That was
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: not a good start for him. So he's not a
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: good form and I don't think he's a good pitcher,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: But he's facing a weak Miami lineup, and he is
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: at home where he does pitch a lot better. And
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Miami only has two hitters who have ever seen him before.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: They're only one for five off him with two strikeouts
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: so and no walks. So Miami is pretty unfamiliar with
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Kreamer and the guys who have seen him haven't done
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: a lot against him.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: So that's my hesitation there. So I like Miami in
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: the game.
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: That's the way that I lean, but I just can't
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: do it, man, I can't quite get there. It was
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: on the short list today though I almost gave it out.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: The public is on Baltimore a little bit, fifty nine
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, but sixty eight percent of the cash
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: coming in on them. They're out for minus one twenty
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: five to minus one thirty five, so the money looks
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: like it is coming in on Baltimore a little bit.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: I don't really agree with that. Again, I think Baltimore
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: has the rest disadvantage. I think they have the starting
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: pitching disadvantage still, but maybe it's not as significant as
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: I thought, just looking at who the starters are on
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: the surface there. So that's those are my thoughts on
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: that game. Colorado at Cincinnati. Colorado was off yesterday, I believe,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: so Colorado does have a rest advantage at least they're traveling,
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: I believe from Boston to Cincinnati here they had to
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: yesterday off.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Don't know how much that's gonna help because.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Colorado is a so bad overall, bad offense, bad bullpen.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's bullpen's not that great. But they did have an
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: easy time of it yesterday. They played yesterday, so they
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: have a rest disadvantage, but they won easily six to nothing.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: And I think you got to give the starting pitching
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: edge to Cincinnati and this one, even though it's a
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: little bit of a roll of the dice. Herman Marquez
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Rockies. He has not been good.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Five point eight four ERA, one point six to two
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: whip not good. He's worse on the road six point
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: four eighty r round the road. And he's at a
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly park here, and I know his home stadium
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: is a hitter friendly park, corus Field, but Cincinnati is
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: one of the most hitter friendly as well. He's coming
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: off a really bad start, which was even worse because
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: it was against a bad White Sox lineup. He gave
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: up six runs and eleven hits in six innings. That's
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: not a good sign at all. Up against the Cincinnati
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Reds in his career, bad numbers, twenty five at bats,
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: not a huge sample size, but some of the guys
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: haven't seen him either. But to three strikeout walk race
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: here three twenty average, one.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Fifty three oh pps.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: So I don't expect much out of Marquez in this game,
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: and he's going up against the young, hard throwing at
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Chase Burns. But Burns, he's been racking up a lot
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: of strikeouts so far in the majors, but his numbers
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: have not really panned out so far.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: I do think he's gonna be good though.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: He has really good stuff, so I am expecting him
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: to be good eventually. And his one really bad start,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: he got absolutely rocked by the Red Sox, gave up
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: five earned runs and a third of an inning and
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: just couldn't get out of the inning at all.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: They rocked him.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: But in his other starts against the Yankees and the Phillies,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: in nine to two thirds innings, he had what is
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: that fifteen strikeouts, so he had a lot of strikeouts.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Eight hits allowed, wasn't that bad.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: He only had four earned runs over that span, which
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: wasn't that bad. So he was better in those two starts.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: And again he has not had an easy go of
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: it to start, Like I mean, look at what he's
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: had to do to start his major league career. He
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: had to face the Yankees and the Red Sox of
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: Philly on the road. Like here you go, man, go
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: face like three of the best, like ten offenses in
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: baseball right now or something.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: That's not easy to do.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Man, So Burns, I mean, I do think he is
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: a good young pitcher, and at least for him, he's
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: stepping way down in class here to face one of
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: the worst offenses in baseball now Colorado. So maybe we
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: will get something good out of Burns here this time
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: in Colorado. Of course has never seen him before, so
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: that's another edge for Burns.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: These young starting pitchers.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: Here, Man, when they're up against these mineups that haven't
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: seen him before, the lineups have to kind of figure
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: him out and adjust, and usually the pitcher has the
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: edge early on. But you're having to pay a big
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: price for Cincinnati. Man, the money has come in on Cincinnati.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, I would not try to play the Rockies here,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: though they did have yesterday off Cincinnati is up for
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: minus one ninety to minus two thirty seven, seventy seven
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Money looks like it is coming in on Cincinnati.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: I mean the way that I would probably want to
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: look at this game is I don't even know how
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: I would want to play it, man, I mean, it
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: almost is still tempting to say, maybe you play the
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati run line here.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: You could go over on Cincinnati's a team total because
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: it's expected to be probably a high scoring game.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Burns a little bit harder to predict, So maybe you
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: don't want to go under with Colorado's team total as much.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Maybe over Red's team totals is a little bit of
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: the better way to look because I think you're not
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: gonna get a lot of good stuff out of Colorado's
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: pitching in this game, and it's a hit or friendly ballpark.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: The totals at nine and a half, so it is
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: a pretty high total, So maybe that's the way you
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: look there.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Detroit.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Detroit did not play yesterday, so Detroit has a rest edge.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: Seattle had to go into extra innings and imploded against
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: the Yankees and blew the game. Could be a little
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: bit of a hangover effect after that game for Seattle.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: But you gotta think Seattle is gonna still be focused
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: here because they're playing one of the other best teams
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: in the league, the Detroit Tigers, and they're facing the
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: best pitcher in the league. This is gonna be a
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: really nice pitching matchup, man, between cass Dio and school Ball.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: So I think both starting pitchers probably should do well
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: in this game. It's just the bullpens are gonna kind
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: of be an issue. Well, Seattle's bullpen maybe an issue
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: because they had to kind of tax their bullpen a
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: little bit in that Yankee series, so I worry about
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Seattle's bullpen. Detroit's has rested, so I don't worry as
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: much about Detroit. So this looks like Detroit has a
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: fairly big edge in this game because of the rest
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: edge as well. But I think you're paying too much
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: of a price on Detroit. The line is just really
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: high because it's scooball on the mound, and with a
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: low total like this, I don't think you can really
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: lay a Detroit money line, even though I know Detroit's
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: really good at home, Laying the money line seems a
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: little bit iffy because he's asking them to win by
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: two runs in a game or the total is very low,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: makes it a little bit diceier.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: It's a little bit harder to win by margin when
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: it's potentially gonna be a lower scoring game.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Luis Castillo is pitching for Seattle here.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good three point three to one ERA
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: or yeah, one point two to WHIP. He has been
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: worse on the road though, four point sixty seven, so
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: he's a lot more comfortable at home, which is a
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: much more pitcher friendly park. Came off a really nice
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: start last time out against Pittsburgh. Eight strikeouts, no runs
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: allowed in seven innings, two hits. It's a very weak
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh offense there, but overall Castillo has been good.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: He's allowed four or more and runs only twice going
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: all the way back to early May, so he has
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: been getting it done. He's been pretty effective overall against
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: Detroit's lineup. What do we have for the numbers here?
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: He's been good against Detroit as well. On one hundred
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: two at bats. He has a really nice twenty seven
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: to four strikeout walker ratio, two thirty five average, five
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: eighty five ops allowed, So his numbers are good against Detroit.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: And of course he's going up against Scooball. I mean,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: what is there to say? Really, he's the best pitcher.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: In the league.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Two point two ERA, point eight one WHIP excuse me.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: He's really good both home and away. It doesn't even matter.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: He's coming off back to back double digit strike up performances. Again,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: didn't allow any over that span and allowed four hits
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: in fourteen innings over those two starts and one walk.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Crazy against bad offenses the Minnesota and Cleveland. But still
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: we know Schooble is absolutely dominant. I mean, there's nothing
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: else to really say about that. And against Seattle his
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: numbers are also well. His numbers actually are not as
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: good as I thought. Remember I looked at this earlier
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: seventy six at bat. Seattle actually does have four home
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: runs off from from four different hitters, a two sixty
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: three average, and eight twelve ops, So schools numbers against
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Seattle are actually a little bit worse than they are
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: against most other teams. Though I'm not expecting schoobl to
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: be bad by any means in this game. I do
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: think Detroit does have the edge in this game, although
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: maybe the matchup numbers kind of tell you Castillo might
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: be able to duel him early in this game. I
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: would not want Seattle later in this game, though, because
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: they're totally unrested and had to play that late like
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: dramatic game last night against the Yankees, So I do
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: not trust Seattle. Later in this game, Detroit's offer minus
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: two hundred to minus two thirty nine. It's just way
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: too high a price to lay with Detroit, or especially
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: given that school Ball actually has mediocre numbers kind of
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland. Detroit's very public ninety three per tickets, ninety
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: eight percent of cash.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: On the total.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: It's flipped from seven juice to the under, to seven
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: juice to the over, with sixty percent tickets on the under.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: It seems like the public, well both pictures, you know,
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: have good numbers. School Balls on the mountain, let's go under,
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: but the public and the cash is actually coming in
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: the over fifty three percent tickets on the over. I
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: could see the argument for that being that, well, maybe
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: schoolbull just doesn't have the best match up here for
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: him against Seattle, and maybe Seattle's bullpen will kind of
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: falter again later in this game. I could see the
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: argument for it. It's a low total. I could also
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: see an argument this is gonna be a pitching duel
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: early in the game, though, because Schoolble is just so
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: good all the time and Castillo's pretty good as well.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: I could be looking under in the first five innings
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: in this game. I would not want to deal with
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Seattle's bullpen, though, but you're gonna have to go under
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: about three and a half probably if you want to
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: do that, So that seems a little bit risky as
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: well to me.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: So I don't love that either, But we'll see what happens. David.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: What's up man?
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Happy Friday to you as well. We have my Boston
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: Red Sox hosting Tampa again. The Red Sox won last night.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Red Sox on a nice hot streak here, man, they
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: won seven games in a row, although, as I pointed
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: out yesterday, the sweeping Washington in Colorado is not exactly
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: that impressive.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Man, those are bad teams.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Still, I think the Red Sox are a little bit
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: better than what the record makes them seem like they are.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: I think actually got an.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: Okay start from Buehler yesterday, which it's about as good
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: as you're gonna be able to ask for from Buehler.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: They won the game, and Bueller only gave up two
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: runs and went six innings, but he did walk three
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: guys and only struck out two, So it's not like
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: Bueller is all of a sudden dealing again or anything
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: like that. He's not. I don't think Bueller is all
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: of a sudden good or anything like that. He's not.
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: But the Red Sox got the win by one yesterday,
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: four to three. They were actually losing the game and
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: had a big seventh inning.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: They only scored four.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: They only had four hits yesterday, man so Timpa Bay
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: actually out hit the Red Sox seven of four, and
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox had that big seventh inning to erase
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: the deafison and win the game. Red Sox did have
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: to use some of their best relievers. They had to
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: use Chapman, who is an All Star.
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: He's been one of.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: He's been really really good, even though he's dude. It's
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: crazy what Chapman is doing. Man, I mean, he's unbelievably
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: old right now at this point, he's still throwing one
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: hundred miles an hour, even though you think, I believe
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: he had Dusty Baker as his manager for a while
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: right who's known for ruining pitchers arms for the most part,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: in overworking them.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: It's crazy that Chapman's doing what he's done.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: But Red Sox probably had a little bit of a
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: bullpend disadvantage after that, although both teams kind of had
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: to use a couple of their better relievers yesterday starting pitching.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: This is hard to gauge, man, I don't want to
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: touch this game. Rasmus in his pitching for Tampa, and
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: he has been probably their best starter or two point
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: eight two ERA one point oh one whip. He's been
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse on the road, but a three
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: point two one is still quite good. But his last
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: two outings, he only went three innings against the A's
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: and he kind of got.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Bombed in that game and gave up four earned runs.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: That was basically his worst start of the season, so
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that was. And then he turned
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: around and only pitched two winnings against Minnesota, which I
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: assume there had to have been a rain delay or
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: something in this game because he wasn't pitching bad. He
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: gave him one run and thirty two pitches and he
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: was out of the game after that. So I don't
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: know what happened in that game because that was not
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: a situation where you'd pull your starter, So I don't
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: know exactly what happened in that game, although now that
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking about didn't I have?
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I thought I had an under in a in a
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Rasmus in game. Was it was it this game?
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Let me see, maybe maybe it was a game that
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: wound up not counting, because I'm not actually betting these
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: games right now, and I think it was this game
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: was Rasmussen against Rye, And yes that was a loss unfortunately,
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I remember, like I remember having an under
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: an Rasmussen game that I wound up being a loser.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: But if the starting I usually recommend when you play
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: a baseball game, you want to say that these listed
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: starters must start because there's such a big part of
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: the handicap.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: You almost always want to do that.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: And then if one of the starters happens to get
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: scratched or whatever, you can reassess it because that bet
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: will wind up just not counting.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: It'll push.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: So I thought that maybe one of my bets pushed
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: and maybe Rastleisen didn't pitch, but that wasn't the case.
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: But in that game, yeah, he only went two innings,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: so I don't know exactly what happened in that game. Yeah,
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: very very strange actually, but rats and has been good
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: overall though against the Red Sox actually has his numbers
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: against the Red Sox are good as well. In nineteen
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: at bats six zero strike a walk ratio two sixty
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: three average a very low five to seventy nine oh ps.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox have not hit Rasmus and hard.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Hunter Dobbins, who has been on
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: the DL. His numbers are okay this year. I mean,
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: he's a young pitcher, four point one ERA, one point
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: two to six whip. He's been pretty good overall. His
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: last start was bad against San Francisco, who San Francisco
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: is a bad offense, so this wasn't a very good start.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: He went four innings to give a four and runs,
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: had five walks and one strike up.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: But I'm wondering if maybe we give.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: Him a pass for that, because he didn't have a
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: start like that at all this year prior to that
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: really except well, I guess maybe this Milwaukee one was
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: kind of bad. Milwaukee's a good off and San Francisco isn't.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: But I'm wondering if maybe that start was so bad
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: because he was coming off such a really good start
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees. He pitched twice in a row against
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, and you know, Dobbins says that.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Thing where he really hates the Yankees and wants to.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: Do well against the Yankees, and the Red Sox had
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: just beaten the Yankees twice. He had gotten wins in
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: both of those games, so maybe it was a bit
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: of a letdown spot for Dobbins here, So maybe you
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: can kind of explain what happened there. But he also
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: went on the disabled list or the injured list. Sorry,
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: we have to be.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: What's the word I'm looking for here? Able at?
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: We want we don't want to be ablest out. I
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: don't even know what the term is whatever. The Red
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: Sox still actually won that game against San Francisco, but
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna say that was maybe more of a blip.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think Dobbins might do okay in this game.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: What are numbers against Tampa though, let me see against
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: Tampa only uh Fayas has faced him before and he's
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: zero for two with a strikeout.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know how to pronounce his name.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: I apologize, I don't really follow individual hitters that much
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: in baseball, but yeah, I mean, overall, it would say
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Rasmussen is probably the better of the two pitchers, and
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: the more consistent and trustworthy of the two pitchers. Probably
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a bullpen edge to Tampa as well.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on the Red Sox though.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: The front is one to two to minus one eleven,
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: fifty six percent tickets, sixty two percent of the cash
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: coming in on them.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: Both offenses are okay.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, I find it hard to really say which
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: offense I think is better. I might give the slight
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: edge to the Red Sox with the offense, like I
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: said yesterday, but it's close. This is a tough matchup
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: to figure out, man, so I don't want to have
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: anything to do with that game. Total is pretty high though,
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: from eight and a half to nine both juice to
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: the over, so some actual money looks like it has
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: come in on the over eighty one percent tickets, nine
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: to nine percent of the cash. I mean that's not accurate,
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: but it looks like the public and probably the professional
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: money are all coming in on the over in that game,
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: which I don't know if I would.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Really want to deal with that.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, no, the Red six has just played a
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: lot of low scoring games against Tampa at home this year,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: but Fenway is a pretty hitter friendly park. For the
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: most part, I think with Dobbins coming back from the DL.
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: I mean a lot of times when a guy comes
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: back from the DL, especially a young guy like Dobbins,
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: they might not be like right back in form right
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: away and they might actually.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Struggle a little bit.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: So that could happen with him with Raspusen and maybe
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: his schedules thrown off a little bit just because he
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: hasn't pitched like a full starter's workload for a while.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Though then again, it might mean he's rested and ready
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: to go in this game. So I do think Tampa
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: would actually be my slight lean in the game for
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: those reasons. I don't know about the over at all,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: though I don't really want to. I wouldn't really want
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: to deal with that mets Kansas City. This is gonna
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: be the over that I have here, and this looks
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: like a very This is a counter intuitive over here, man,
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: because you have a Kansas City offense that is really
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: really bad, although they have actually shown signs of life recently,
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: so I like that Kansas City has started to hit
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit better. But you might be thinking I'm
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: crazy here because you have two pictures here who have
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: really good numbers for the most part, especially saying gun
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Walk hasn't been that bad either. So what am I
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: doing recommending an over in this game? Well, there are
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: reasons for it, man, I'm about to explain it. First
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: of all the books throughout it's total eight and a
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: half juice to the over, and it's already nine juice
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: to the over. I would say, you want to get
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: that over nine, man, before it gets to nine and
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: a half, because nine is a key number in baseball, man,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: It's what breaks the four to four tie. So going
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: over nine is a lot better than going over nine
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: and a half. So you could find nine out there
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: at minus one twenty from what I saw, but it
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: is headed towards nine and a half. The money looks
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: like it is coming in on the over.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: That's a significant move up from eight and a half
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: juice to the over to nine juice to the.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Over through a key number of nine. That means something.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: It doesn't mean the money is actually coming in on
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: the over fifty nine percent of tickets on the over
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: sixty percent cash on over.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: And I'm actually gonna agree with this.
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: So not only do it I think the market read
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: is actually correct, but I think there are reasons for this, man.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: So Mets played two games yesterday, so their bullpend which
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: has been a little bit worse than it was earlier
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: in the season. Mets bullpend not in the greatest form
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: right now, and they had to use some of their
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday in two games, so the bullpen is not rested.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: So that's one disadvantage that they have. Yes, I know Kansas
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: City had yesterday off and they have a good bullpend,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: So yes, Kansas City does have a little bit of
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge in this game because they do have
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: a pretty good bullpend. But I think that the starting
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: pitching is also gonna get us to this over here man,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: even though it seems totally counterintuitive. Senga is pitching for
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: the Mets.
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: He has really good numbers this year one point four
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: to seventy one point one one whipple. Though, even though
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: he's been really, really excellent this year, I think there
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: are a couple of reasons why we maybe aren't gonna
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: love it as much. I mean, first of all, he's
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: coming back from the DL and with a guy like him,
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: he really has not had to deal with this much.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: I mean he's only been in the Major since twenty
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: twenty three. Even though he's a veteran pitcher, like he
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: pitched in Japan for a long time, I don't know
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: that he's quite used to coming off the DL man.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: So the guy like him who hasn't been in the
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: majors for that long, he might struggle a little bit,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: and maybe he'll be on a little bit of.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: A pitch count in this game. We don't really know.
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: Even though he's been really, really great pretty much all
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: season for the most part, he did have his struggles
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: though in May, with the walk numbers being really high,
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: he was just kind of getting away with it. He
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: had thirty four strikeouts in nineteen walks in May and
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: still somehow only let seven runs and thirty three in
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: a third innings. I don't know how that could even
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: be the case when you walk that many guys. So
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: when you walk guys like that, I mean, you're kind
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: of just teetering on the edge, man, and.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: At some point that you're gonna fall off a little bit.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: And his last three starts before he got hurt were
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: against the Rockies twice and then Washington.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: He was good in all three starts, didn't.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: Walk as many guys, but those are all really bad offenses.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: I know Kansas City is also a really bad offense,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: but still there are some reasons why maybe sengas not
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: totally trustworthy in this game. He's been better at home
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: than on the road, and he is on the road
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: here where he's at least been a little bit more attackable.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: On the road.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: He has a two ERA on the road, which I
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: know is still really good. But again, him coming off
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: the DL, he might be a little bit shaky in
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: that first game and up against Kansas City. This is
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: what put me over the edge here. I'm like, I'm
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: gonna go over in this game. His numbers against Kansas City,
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: it's a small sixteen at bat sample size.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: They have ten.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: Hits off of them though they have a six to
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: twenty five batting average against him in one thousand and
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: three seventy five ohps despite not having a home run
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: off and so they have been able to make contact.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: These hitters have been good against.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: Sengu even though it was a limited sample size. They
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: did that when they had never even seen Senga before. Basically,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: so I think that doesn't really exactly bode well for Senguy.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: I think Kansas City might actually be able to score
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: in this game in Kansas City again, after they were
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: really bad offensively for a while, they've actually won four
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: games in a row and scored at least four runs
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: in all four games, so that's not too bad. And
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: five of their last six games have scored nine runs
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: twice and four in the other three, so that's not
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: too bad either. So Kansas City's offense is a little
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: bit better then. On the other side, we're looking at
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: Michael walk I mean, his numbers are getting a little
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: bit worse throughout the season here as we get into
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: the All Star break, it becomes kind of a grind
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: three point eight three ERA one point two to nine whip.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: I know he's better at home two point eight one
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: home Thera, which is good, but he is not in
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: good form right now.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Man. Over his last two starts, nine runs.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Allowed in nine innings, twelve hits allowed, six walks to
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: only five strikeouts. He is not in good form right now.
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: And one was at a pitcher friendly Seattle Ballpark. And
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: then yeah, he got kind of lit up a little
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: bit at Arizona. Or well, he walked way too many
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: guys at Arizona. That's a hitter friendly ballpark, but it
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: wasn't the ballpark that did it.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: I know Arizona is a good offense, but he struggled
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: in that game. And Kansas City has lost five of
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: his last six starts, which isn't that great a sign either.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Walk him, I think he might not do well here man,
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: and the Mets do have a good offense, So the
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: Mets offense is obviously gonna be the offense. It has
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: to do the heavy lifting to get us over here,
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: and I think they can do it. Walka's numbers in
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: a pretty big forty eight at bat sample size, decent size,
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: bad numbers against the Mets man four to seventeen, average
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: a lot in nine.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: To eighty two oh ps, despite.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Only allowing one home run to Pete Alonzo, So this
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: offense is hit him pretty well. So both starting pitchers
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: have really really bad matchup numbers here. Sangam might be
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit shaky coming into this because it is
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: gonna be his first game back from the DL, and
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: we did see his first game in the season wasn't
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: really that great, so you know, kind of shaky to
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: start the season. Only went five innings, give him a
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: couple of runs, some unnerned runs as well against Miami,
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: which is not a good offense. So yeah, I mean,
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: I think Sanga might be a little bit hittable in
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: this game, man, enough that we're gonna we can get
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: this total to go over. Obviously, we're gonna need the
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: Mets to put up a lot of runs in this
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: game to get this thing over. But the totals high
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: for reason, man, looks very counterintuitive. I'm gonna say the
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: over is the right way to go in that game.
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: That is going to be a play that I recommend.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: Let's go Royals from Zach. As far as the Royals
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: are concerned, I don't know if I would want to
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: look to the Royal side, man, even though the Mets
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: are probably too heavy a favorite on the road here.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: Down for mightus one thirty five to minus one twenty.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: But the Mets certainly have a way better offense than
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Kansas City does. But again, their bullpen is at a
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: big disadvantage, and I think Senga versus Walka might be
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a wash here, just because Senga
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: has bad matchup numbers and is coming back from the
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: DL though I expect them to probably outpitch walka though,
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: But for me, I just need the thing to go over.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: The total seventy two percent take is ninety one percent
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: of cash on the Mets, so it does look like
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in on the Mets, and maybe
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: the Mets offense being such a major edge for the
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: Mets might wind up being the thing that determines.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: The outcome of the game.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: So I wouldn't really want to fade the Mets there,
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: even though I know they're in a bad spot.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: When you see a team that play two games yesterday
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: against the team that didn't play at all, yeah, I
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: mean you should be probably looking at the team that
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: didn't play at all the rest of team Kansas City.
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: It's just this is such an offensive mismatchman that I
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: worry about him. I don't know that I necessarily want
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: to say that I would lean to the Mets side, though, honestly,
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: just because I almost never do that. When you have
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: a team that played twice against the team that didn't
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: play at all, I'm always kind of like, play on
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: the team that didn't play at all. I don't know, man,
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: And what's up man, last of the Mohicans, what's up?
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Brother? A six' four, win you think it's gonna be
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: for The.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: ROYALS i would take that just because it would go
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: over it's, total SO i. Don't to, ME i don't
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: really care who wins the game With i'm not really
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: a fan of The, mets SO i wouldn't mind it.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Really next game is the other player THAT i, have
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: and this is the Under Pittsburgh. MINNESOTA i, mean, yeah
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: it almost looks too. OBVIOUS i, mean it's two really
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: good pitchers, here but this, ONE i, MEAN i just
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: think the obvious is the correct in this. One pittsburgh
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: was off, yesterday so even Though pittsburgh does have a bad,
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: bullpen they're gonna have at least their best relievers available
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: in this, one SO i think we can go with.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: THAT i KNOW i don't Like minnesota's bullpen at, all
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: but they got blown out, yesterday so they didn't have
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: to use any of their best relief pitchers. Yesterday SO
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: i think the bullpen, situation at least the best relievers
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: are available for both, teams AND i think we can
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: get our starters to get us deep enough into this,
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: game then we can get this thing under the. Total Paul,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: SKEINS i, mean obviously having a really good season one
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: point nine to FOUR era point nine to two. Whip
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: he's Any he actually has been better on the road
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: one point six y FIVE r on the. Road the
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: one drawback With skins though he's only gone five or
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: fewer innings in three of his last four or, yeah
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: three of his last four outings four of his last
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: five actually excuse, me so.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: That's not as.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: Good so they're kind of limiting his pitch count right
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: now because they don't want to overwork. Him so maybe
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: we're only going to get about five innings out of.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: Schemes although he's still been, excellent giving up no runs
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: over the last ten, innings one walk at fifteen, strikeouts
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: so he's still been pretty dominant in those two, starts
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: so hopefully that is going to continue to be the.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Case and the other good thing that we have going
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: on here is both offenses are pretty.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Bad minnesota And.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh these are teams that don't hit the cover off
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: the ball. SKEENS i, MEAN i think he has an
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: added edge Against minnesota because only two of their hitters
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: have ever even seen him. Before france is the only
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: one who even has a hitoff. Him they're one for
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: five with four strikeouts off, him and the rest Of
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: minnesota has never even faced him, before SO i Think
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: skeens has an added edge there where when you have
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: a young fiend on Like skiens and an offense that
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: hasn't even seen him, before the pitcher does have the edge, there,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Man and he's going up Against Joe, ryan AND i
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: know there are some distractions, here Like Oh, minnesota if
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: they think they're out of, it they might start.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Selling at the trade.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: Deadline it seems like they might try to Trade Joe,
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: ryan but hopefully that's not going to distract him in this.
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: Game Because Joe, ryan we need him to pitch, well
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: and he has been doing that all pretty much all.
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: Season two point seven to SIXTY ra point eight nine.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: Whip he's been really. Good he's been really good both
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: home and, away it doesn't even. Matter he's allowed more
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: more than enough three on runs only three times all,
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: season and since the basically Late, april he's only done
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: it once, more which was at The A's, stadium which
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: is a very difficult stadium to pitch. In so if
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: you take that one, out then he hasn't done it
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: at all since Late. MAN i Know minnesota has not
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: done well behind him because their offense is, sucked their
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: bullpen has. Sucked they've lost four of his last five.
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: Games there wasn't His it wasn't his. Problem has he
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of the
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: four and in the other or four of the five
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: and in the other he allowed three on. RUNS i
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: can't see. Anymore but it's because of my.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Stroke my brain is such that everything is like one
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: off for. Me. Man it's.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: Weird LIKE i see like IF i see like a double,
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: Letter i'll think that it's like a triple letter instead
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: of a Double it's.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: Very very, weird.
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: Man because the stroke did that to my vision to
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: the right occipital in my.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Brain it's very.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Weird SO i see these lines here And i'm Thinking
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: i'm looking at like four rows When i'm.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Actually looking at. FIVE i don't know how to explain.
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: It it's very. Weird that's.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: YEAH i just have to live with. It my vision
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: mostly was restored, though BECAUSE i retrained my. Brain but,
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: YEAH i mean that's a side note. There But Joe ryan,
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: overall he's been really. Good he should do well Against.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh thirty six at. Bats he has a ten to
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: one strike a walk ratio against. HIM i know he's
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: allowed three home, runs but two of them are Kinder,
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: filaifa WHO i don't even know who the hell that,
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: is so he could probably at least pitch around, him
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: or maybe that's just kind of a fluke stat. There,
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: overall he's allowed a one ninety four average and six
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: eighty eight, ops which is a little bit high just
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: because of those home. Runs But ryan overall has done
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: well against this. Offense it's not a good. Offense we'll
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: deal with the bullpens in this. One we'll go under the.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: TOTAL i know the money looks like it's coming in
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: on the, over, though WHICH i don't. Love total has
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: gone up from six and a half to, seven a
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: slight tick. Upward seventy percent tickets on the under seventy
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on the.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: OVER i don't see.
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: It.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: Man the the odspeakers put its total dis low for a.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: Reason, MAN i, mean they're expecting this to be a pitching,
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: duel WHICH i also expected. TO i, mean these are bad.
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: Offenses this has a lot of the makings for an under.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: Man the only concern is That minnesota did play, yesterday
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: but and, well And pittsburgh's bullpen's not really that.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Good neither bullpen is that. Good that's kind of the.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: Concern if you want to go under in the first
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: five innings and go just with the starting, pitchers you
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: could do, that but you're gonna have to go under
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: like a low total THAT i don't really love, doing
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: like the three and a half or. WHATEVER i prefer
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: to just do it seven full. Game hopefully the pitchers
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers get us deep en up into this. Game
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: AND i know WHEN i said that the other day
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: one of those, games it didn't work, out BUT i
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: think it will in this.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: One hopefully it.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Does Action network's, numbers by the, way have things a
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: little bit, differently so it's a little bit. Weird Action
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: network sometimes their market numbers are a bit different than
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: the numbers that you see on pregame there where their numbers.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Seem to be indicating that this is more of an.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: Underplay so that's the way THAT i saw this, one
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: and seem to be indicating an overplay in The mets
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: game as, Well so it's kind of the way THAT
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: i look at. That and then it seemed like they
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: were kind of indicating on The marlins, too but it
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: seems like the numbers have shifted on that one a little,
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: bit so that one was LIKE i was considering it
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: that one was close to being a, play but it
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: will not.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Be texas is At.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: Houston houston had yesterday off and they just have to
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: kind of sit and think about getting swept By, Cleveland
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: So houston might be in a little.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: Bit of a pissed off mood.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: Here texas had to play yesterday and they're having to
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: come Into houston from The pacific, coast so the travel
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: spot is deathly worse For. Texas texas didn't have to
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: use a whole lot of their bullpend yesterday because they
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: won easily Against, anaheims so their bullpend is still. Intact
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: so we do have two pretty good bullpends in this.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Game Jack lighter is pitching For. Texas four point three
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: TWO era one point three to three. WHIP i, mean
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: those numbers are not that, great a little bit worse
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: on the.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Road four point.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: Five EIGHT era not. Good in his last start At San,
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: diego which was a pretty pitcher friendly, park he only
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: went three and two. Thirds he was very inefficient with his,
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: pitches gave up five, hits two, walks way too many
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: guys on, base even though the five strikeouts was. Good
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: so his strikeout rate is getting a little bit, higher
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: but his walk numbers have been a little bit of a.
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: Concern his team has lost six straight starts of his
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: which is not a good sign, either and ten of
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: his last twelve, STARTS i guess is what that, is
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: or eleven of his last. Thirteen SO i know The
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: rangers' offense is really really, struggling like basically all, seasons
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: so that's part of. It But lighter has been a
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: little bit QUESTIONABLEMENT i, MEAN i think he's a pretty
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: talented young, pitcher but it hasn't totally materialized, yet so
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: it's kind of difficult to figure out what you think
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get out of. Him his numbers are good Against,
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: houston though in nineteen of bass he's on to a
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: one fifty eight average five sixteen oh ps one to
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: one strikeout walk ratio is not very. Good that's not
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: a lot of, strikeouts but Overall houston hasn't really hit him.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: Well he's going up Against lance, mccullors who was also
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: really difficult to. Predict he's trying to bounce back from
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: like a multi season injury issue. Basically, Man so he's
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: had some really good starts this year and he got
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: injured again and he's struggling again, unfortunately BECAUSE i want
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: to see him do, well that would be my, opinion
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: especially just based on the fact that his own crowd
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: is basically like threatening his and his family's, life which
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: is just ridiculous given what he's, given you, know to
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: that team over his career and what he's trying to do.
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: Here but his season stats are bad five point eight TWO,
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: era one point five EIGHT. Whip he's been really bad
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: at home within eleven point three seven E, ra so
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: he's not really a guy you want to back at
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: home right. Now he just did decently against The dodgers
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: on the, road a good offense and that he went six,
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: innings only allowed one or in, run but.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: He did walk four, guys so the walks are. Concerned.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: Man he's walked four a piece in the last three,
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: starts SO i don't think he's actually in great form right,
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: Now and did it at home against The cubs in
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: The White sox and didn't do well in either of those.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: Starts so even against a Bad White sox, team he
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: had issues at, home AND i don't know if the
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: home crowd is just getting in his head or what
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: the deal, is but he has not been good at.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Home he's facing who are he facing? HERE i already
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Forgot texas right. As numbers are actually bad in his
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: career Against texas as.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: Well fifty three at, bats seven to seven strike a,
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: walkerceio three to zero two batting average in seven to
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: sixty one oh, Ps so he matches up pretty poorly Against.
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: Texas he's not in good form right. Now at least
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: a lighter has given you some decent starts. Recently the
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: money seems like it's all coming in On.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: Texas.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: Man so even THOUGH i usually don't like to play
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: against a team Like, houston who rested, yesterday And houston
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: is in like a pretty big bounce back, spot the
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: money seems to be disagreeing within him coming in On.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Texas SO i would have to agree with the market
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: read on this one IF i was gonna do anything
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: with this.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Game houston's down for minds one thirty five to, one.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: Eighteen seventy six percent, tickets sixty four percent of the.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Cash So houston's public money's coming in against. Him even
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: THOUGH i Know houston is really good at, Home texas
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: offense is definitely a. Concern texas is gonna have to
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: Need they're gonna need to put up runs in this
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: game if you're gonna Want texas to, Win BUT i
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: think they might be able to do it just based
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: on the starting pitching, matchup, Man and maybe you could
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: Go texas first five innings as well if.
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: You don't want to have to Beat houston's bullpend.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: Here But texas's bullpen is pretty good as, well and
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: in a decent rest situation in this. One LIKE i, said,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: So texas money line either full game or first five
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: innings is probably the right way to look in that. Game,
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: nate what's up? Man thanks for hanging out. Everybody, andrew
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: thanks for hanging out. Man all, Right Washington milwaukee. HERE
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: i believe both teams did not play. Yesterday milwaukee, though
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: they could be in a pretty big let down spot, here,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: man because they just swept THE La.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Dodgers that was a huge series From.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee you're coming off That dodger series and now you
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: get to face the Lowly Washington. Nationals looks like it
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: could be a pretty big let down. Spot For milwaukee here. Man,
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: However washington did play yesterday and they used some of their.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: Bullpend their bullpen is terrible and they got lit. Up
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: so this is one of the.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: Rare situations WHERE i would Say milwaukee has a bullpen
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: edge here Because milwaukee has rested and their b is
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: actually better Than, washington so their bullpen at least has
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: been better recently as.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: Well SO i Think milwaukee does have a bullpen. Edge
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: they have a rest edge. Here they obviously have the better.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: Offense the problem, Is i'm not sure.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: That we want to deal With milwaukee's starting pitching scenario.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Here Mitchell, parker, though is not very.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Good he's pitching For washington four point seven to TWO,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: era one point three to EIGHT. Whip he's been quite
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: bad on the, road five point sixty six ROAD era not.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: Good he gave up ten hits last time out against
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: The Red, sox nine, runs although only.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Four of them were.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: Earned but he got lit up in that. Game and
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: he's not in great form right. Now his walk numbers
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: have been. Bad six walks over the last three starts
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: compared to eight. STRIKEOUTS i, mean that's not a good.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: Ratio hasn't really been doing. That, WELL i don't expect
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: a whole lot on Of. PARKER i, mean he does
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: walk too many guys against The. Brewers his numbers aren't.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: Great in fourteen at bats two to four strike a,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: walker he show three fifty seven average one thousand and
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: two eighty six oh.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: Ps none of that is. GOOD i don't really love
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: how it sets up For.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: Parker so again you're, saying, well why WOULDN'T i Want milwaukee?
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: Here?
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: Right everything looks like it's in favor Of milwaukee in this,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: game EXCEPT i just don't know if we could Trust
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: quinn Priester. MAN i, MEAN i know he started pitching
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: like really unexpectedly well recently three point five NINE era
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: overall this season one point two to SEVEN. Whip those
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: are pretty good. Numbers he's been better at home as,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: well three point zero THREE. Era so everything still seems
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: like it's.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: Lining up For.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee milwaukee did also win seven starts in a, row
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: behind priest they've. Won problem, is after he had a
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: really great start Against, colorado he had a really bad
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: start last time out against a Bad miami. Offense he
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: allowed to them runs four and runs and four to
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: two thirds. Seven it's two, walks four. STRIKEOUTS i Think
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: priest might be falling out a form.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: MAN i don't know if that was a blip, really
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: because his start prior to the rocky start was also pretty.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: Bad it was a rocky start Against. Minnesota so his
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: last three starts have been. Bad he only went three
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: and a third, innings gave up three on runs two
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: home runs in.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: That game Against.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: Minnesota so in those two, starts to give up four
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: home runs in whatever that was eight innings, PITCHED i
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: mean that's pretty. Bad SO i Think priester is kind
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: of falling out of form a little bit. HERE i
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: don't know IF i trust. Him his numbers are kind
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: of all over the place Against. Washington it's a very
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: small seventeen at bat sample, size.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Only two, strikeouts one.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: Walk millis And rosario both have home runs off him
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: two thirty five, average but a pretty high eight sixty.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: Six. Ops don't quite know if we could Trust priester
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: in this game, either.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: MAN i, mean it could be a game where we
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: want to look over it looks like the money's coming
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: in the under, though under the eight and a half
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent or, wait what AM i looking? At?
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah fifty three percent tickets on the, under sixty two
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: percent of cash on the. Under i'm not SURE i
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: agree with. That money is still coming out Of milwaukee
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: up for a minus one seventy and minus two hundred
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent tickets ninety one percent of the, cash
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: so they are really. PUBLIC i don't know if you
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: want to deal with laying a Price, milwaukee you.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Know like a home run.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: Line if you want to do something with, this maybe
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: you Go milwaukee over their team total again, here BECAUSE
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: i don't Trust Mitchell. Parker his numbers aren't good Against milwaukee,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Either so maybe you just go To milwaukee's offense to
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: get it done you and then you get the advantage
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: of Facing. Washington it's awful bulpend as, Well so maybe
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: that's the way you want to look at that.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Game atlanta At Saint. Louis Saint louis played, yesterday but
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: they had an easy win. Yesterday AS i, said they
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: blew Out washington, yesterday didn't use any of their high
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: leverage relief men, yesterday Whereas atlanta also played. Yesterday But
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: atlanta played at an eleven inning game late into the night
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: yesterday against The a's and lost the. Game SO i
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: think this is a lot worse For. Atlanta.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: Man they're having to travel from The pacific coast into
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: The central time zone Into Saint.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Louis So atlanta played.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: Later in the DAY i, believe last, night and used
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: more of their relievers last, night and they're having to.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: Travel so it looks like a lot of disadvantages For
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: atlanta in this. Game and SO i really don't Like atlanta.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: Here Grant holmes is pitching For. Atlanta he's been decent,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: overall three point four to FOUR era one point two four.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: Whip he's been worse on the road, though four point
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: four to six road herrang not a good, road he.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: Irrang he's looked okay over his last several, starts, REALLY i,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: mean going all the way back to actually going all
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: the way back to Early. May basically he has not
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: allowed more than three and runs at any. Start but
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: if you kind of dig into these numbers a little bit,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: more his walk number has been way too, high. DUDE i,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: mean he's walked three apiece in his last three, starts
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: walked five in the start before. That that's not looking that.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: Great even those strikeout rate has been fairly. High this
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: is a really high walk, rate, man And atlanta has
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: not backed.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Him he's.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: Lost atlanta has lost seven of his last eight, starts
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: which some of it was because the bullpen was, bad
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: some of it was Because atlanta was not putting up.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: Offense but even, so And holmes is just walking way
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: too many guys, man and he is worse on the.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: Road SO i don't Love holmes in this particular. Matchup
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: his numbers are not good Against Saint. Louis there in
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: seventeen at, bats three point fifty three batting, average eight
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: thirty three. Ohps so it is looking like a spot
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: where you probably want to lean To Saint. Louis libra.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: Torre especially For Saint, louis he's been pretty good three
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: point seventy, ra one point one to eight. Whip he's
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: pretty good both home and, away very similar, numbers doesn't really.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: MATTER i just don't know if we could trust him, either,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: man because even though he hasn't allowed many runs as
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Of lady, either he's only allowed two or fewer in
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: runs in his last four, starts got at least five
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: innings in all of, them And Saint louis won all
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: four starts and two of them are against The, cobs
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: so all.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: Of that is a good.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: Sign but in his last two starts he had a
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: nine to nine strike up walk rang. SHOW i mean
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: that is a bad, sign even though one of them
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: was a shoutout against a Weak cleveland. Lineup you can't
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: walk that many guys and still get a done, man
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: although normally he doesn't really walk that many, guys so
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: maybe it will turn around a little. Bit his numbers
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: are really good against The braves and twenty eight at
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: bats one oh, seven batting average, allowed three thirty. Sixs
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: so almost everything pretty much lines up in favor Of
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: Saint louis here. MAN i, MEAN i think the offenses
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: are pretty. Comparable Saint louis has a much better rest,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: scenario probably has a slightly better, bulpen AND i think
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching edge goes to them as, well matchup,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: wise and you, know even probably recent form wise and
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: also matchup W i already said matchup, wise what other
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: season statistics? WISE i don't know what ELSE i was gonna,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: say but matchup wise for. Sure but the money looks
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: like it's all coming in On, atlanta and it looks
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: Like Saint louis is a very dreaded public home, underdog
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: which you almost never want to be on a home
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: underdog that's getting the public. ACTION i think that's Because
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: Saint louis has the better record Over, atlanta so the
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers threw up a plus one oh five On atlanta
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: and it had already moved.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: To minus win eighteen On.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: Atlanta when you see a team with the worst record
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: being favored on the, road you gotta kind of take
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: notice of, that, man because it almost looks way too.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Easy it Takes Saint louis as the home, underdog even
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: though me, personally based on EVERYTHING i just analyzed, THERE
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: i actually Think Saint louis is the right side. There
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: but market wise is telling you to do the complete,
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: opposite AND i don't want to fade a market read like,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: this SO i will just stay off the. Game seventy
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets fit the eight percent of cash
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: On Saint. Louis so we see reverse live movement going
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: against a public home. Underdog oh, boy usually not a great,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: sign but, again the matchup still kind of leads me
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: to believe That Saint louis is the is the lean
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: in that. Game arizona is At Anaheim anaheim played. Yesterday
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: both teams played. Yesterday anaheim got blasted yesterday Against, texas
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: But anaheim had to use a bunch of their, bullpen
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: and their bullpen is, terrible so that's not a good.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Sign arizona's bullpen is also. Terrible, however In arizona's coming
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: up a big series Against San diego OR i think
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: they split the.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: Series so what do we want to do with this?
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: Game arizona's now having A, well they're staying on The
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: pacific coast because they were just At San, diego so
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: they're just going up the. Coast Two Anaheim anahim staying at,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: home so not a lot of travel for either team.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: HERE i don't know if we could trust either starting
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. Though, Man Ryan, NELSON i know he's putting
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: up good stats three point three NINETY ra a really
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: good point nine to eight, whip which shocking to, Me,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: man that MAYBE i have to Reassess Ryan nelson Because
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: i've always seen him as not a very good.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Pitcher but.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: If we're gonna be starting to look the way That
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: i'm kind of looking in this, Game Ryan nelson has
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: a really Bad ROADIE r five point three, four which
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: is kind of surprising as, well Because arizona plays in
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: a very hitter friendly, park but he's been worse on the.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: Road his team has been really good behind him in
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: his last five.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: Starts they won every one of his last five, starts
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: but he did Face Kansas, City San, francisco The White.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: Sox those are bad. Offenses toronto's, Okay San diego's, decent
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: but that, does you, KNOW i, mean it maybe indicates
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: that maybe he'll not do quite as well.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: Here although it's not Like anaheim's that good of an
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: offense either, Though but he has a bit pretty well Overraw.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: MAN i, mean he has twelve, strikeouts no walks in
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: his last two, starts three or runs allowed in thirteen
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: to two thirds, innings only nine hits.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: Lout so, yes he is in good recent.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: Form but again the one caveat is those two starts
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: specifically were against really weak. Offenses going up Against, anaheim
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: they're not a great offense. Either his numbers are not
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: that great though against him in twenty two at bats
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: two seventy three average seven to forty two, ohps so
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: not great numbers.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: There and then of course their bullpen is. Terrible both
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: bullpends are.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: Terrible he's going up Against Eyler, anderson WHO i keep
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: SAYING i think is worse than his numbers. Suggest four
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: point one to NINETY r one point three to eight.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: Whip now that is a bad. Whip he's been better
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: at home, though two point six six e ra at.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Home so do you want to Fade anderson at? Home,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: WELL i kind of. DO i, mean he just hasn't
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: been good.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Recently. Man he's walking way too many.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: Guys he's walked two apiece in every start since the
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: beginning Of, june except for one where he walked one
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: and it was still a bad start Against seattle where
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: he didn't even make it five.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Innings he's been a, lot a lot of.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: Runs he's allowed three or more runs in all but
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: one of those, starts which was a start he didn't go.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: Deep and again against The Red. Sox he's definitely struggling right.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: Now he's putting too many guys on, base he's allowing.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: RUNS i, mean he's again he's not a very good.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: Pitcher anaheim's lost four of his last five. STARTS i
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: think he's not. Trustworthy he's facing a really Good arizona
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: offense and they have hit him decently in the, past
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: and one hundred at bats twenty one to six strike
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: out Walker issuel looks pretty, good but two seventy average
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: eight to twenty one ohps, allowed that's not. Good marte
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: specifically has done a lot of damage against him thirteen
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: to thirty with two home runs three. Walks SO i
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: don't like either starring. PITCHER i don't like either. Bullpen
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: so where AM i going with? That, WELL i would
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: say over is the way to go in this. Game
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: the total is sitting at nine and a, half so,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: again the books are kind of telling you something with that,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: total thinking you should probably go over, here and it's
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: a little bit counterintuitive based on both starters having decent
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: looking eras at the very least seventy six percent of
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: the tickets on the over the cash on the. Over
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: you definitely want to go full game on this if
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: you go, over because, THESE i mean these bullpens are
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: both bad Bullpens man And anime's bullpen got used to.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: Yesterday i'm almost considering elevating this to a. Play, actually hold,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: on let me, see do we want to go with
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: three totals? TODAY i, mean this looks like it's one
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: of the best total looks that we.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: Have on when we're looking At Action.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: Network, here this and The Mets royals one THAT i
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: already gave. Out let me see what can we get
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: on this number? Here you got to go over nine
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: and a half on. This, unfortunately you can get it
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: at plus money though the over nine and a, HALF i,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: mean if you can find an over nine at a better,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: PRICE i would, say maybe you want to do. IT
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: i guess as of, NOW i won't give it out
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: as a play just BECAUSE i don't see a good
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: number on. It. Man, unfortunately you have to go over
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: nine and a half on, these WHICH i would prefer
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: to go over nine and pay a little bit of
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: money for, it AND i think that that line might not.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: Exist let me just make. Sure let me see if
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: there is any number out there that can that we.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: Can use for.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: That, uh looks like, No i'm looking right, now, man
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: because you could see like all the books here at.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Once, YEAH i don't see it.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: Unfortunately so, again, YEAH i would go over in that
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: game for sure though IF i was gonna play that,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: game BUT i would try to find an over nine
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: even if you pay upwards with like minus one twenty on.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: It maybe you can't find, it maybe you have to
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: go over the nine and a.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: Half but UNFORTUNATELY i don't love to do that with
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: that extra. Half it does matter in, Baseball philadelphia At San.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: DIEGO i Think philadelphia has a lot of advantages in
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: this particular. Game, Man philadelphia was off. Yesterday they're having
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: to travel to The pacific. Coast, no they're already on
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: The pacific. Coast what AM i? Saying they're staying on
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: The pacific. Coast they're At San. Francisco So philadelphia actually
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: has a decent. Edge they're already adjusted to the time.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: Zone they're coming off easy thirteen to nothing blowout though
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: Over San. Francisco but Still philly had yesterday off Where
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: San diego was in this, battle big divisional battle Against arizona,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: here and they use a lot of their best relief. Pitchers,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: again so even Though San diego is a good, bullpen
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: normally their bullpen is a big advantage Over. PHILADELPHIA i
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: think that that advantage is completely erased by the fact
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: That philadelphia is completely. Rested philadelphia can use any of
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: their relievers coming into this game In San, diego use.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: All their best relievers, yesterday so that's not a good.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: SIGN i Think philadelphia does have the better offense of the,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: two And philadelphia has the better starter of the two as,
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: well With ron Your suarez pitching with a pretty ridiculous
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: one point nine to NINETY, ra even THOUGH i was
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: expecting some regression out of, him but he is continuing
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: to pitch well one point THREE. Era he's actually been
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: better on the road one point SIX era on the,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: road and he's in pretty good for him recently as.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: Well he's allowed exactly one run and four straight starts
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: going all the way back to, actually, yeah if you
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: go all the way back to Mid, may he's allowed
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in every start and only
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: allowed more than one once in a two run performance At.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: PITTSBURGH a lot of his reasons starts have been on the,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: road and he's still. Dominating he's been, really really. Good
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: so he's a guy THAT i would certainly not be
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: looking to.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: Fade BUT.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: I had to dial it back a little bit because
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: his numbers Against we're Playing San diego here. Right his
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: numbers Against San diego are pretty awful and eighty two
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: at bats a three zero five, average seven to fifty
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: two ops.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: Eighteen to one starting a walk racer is really.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: Good BUT i have a little bit of hesitation here
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: With suarez just because his numbers matchup wise are not
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: very good Against San. Diego San diego has Burge are Starting.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: Bergert his numbers are good on the season two point
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: six to SEVENTY, ra one point one to FIVE. WHIP
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: i don't think he's trustworthy, though. MAN i, mean he's
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: been starting recently after he WAS i believe coming out
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: of the bullpend for a, while or maybe he was
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: making some opener. STARTS i don't, remember but his last
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: two starts he did not go more than four and two.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: THIRDS i know he didn't allow any runs against The dodgers.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: Are just pretty.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: Impressive but his last, start he walked three, guys allowed
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: three runs and three innings Against.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: Washington that's not a good. Sign he's walked six.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: Guys, actually if you go back to his last four,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: starts but, actually let's go his last, five he has
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: a twenty one to twelve strike a walker, issues so
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: that's not good. Either so he's walking way too many guys,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: recently very high walk. RATES i don't think we could
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: trust him at All. Man Probably philadelphia has never seen him. Before, Though,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: yeah So philadelphia hasn't seen him, before so at least
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: maybe burge are because he's, young he does have that
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: one advantage where he can get strike, guys and he's
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: facing an offense that hasn't seen him. Before but, YEAH i,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: mean to, ME i Think philadelphia is probably still the
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: right side. HERE i, mean they have a big time
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: rest advantage in this, game AND i still think they
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: have the starting pitching. EDGE i, mean you have a
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: very unproven starter On San diego side who might not
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: even get you deep into the game up against the
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: guy who's likely to get you much deeper into the
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: game and who has been pitching pretty much lights. Out
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: so it would Be philadelphia or past this. Game but
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: you do have to lay a price for them on the.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: Road they're down for just one sixty one fifty four
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: seventy two percent ticket seventy eight percent of cash On,
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: philly so they are, public but the money looks like
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: it is kind of coming into The philadelphia side as. Well,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: again my only hesitation really is That suarez has bad
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers Against San, diego and that is the only
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: HESITATION i really, Have and THEN i also do.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: Like toronto at The a's.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: HERE i, mean The a's are staying at home though
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: they won last night, though so The A'S i think
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: are at a disadvantage even though they're not. Traveling The
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: a's had a big win over The. BRAVES i mean
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: it's it's always big when you beat The, braves even
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: though they're not playing well right. Now they're a big
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: name team that was a big win that went eleven.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: Innings so you have An a's team that had to
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: use some of their bullpen last. Night they got a big,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: win played late to the night While toronto wasn't even
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: playing at. All So toronto does have a big time
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: rest edge, here and The a's bullpen is.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: Terrible The a's.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: Have a big time bulp and disadvantage in this, game
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: even more exacerbated by the fact that they had to
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: use some of their bullpend last. Night so Already i'm, thinking,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: Well toronto has to be the right side in this.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: Game toronto is coming off a loss to The White
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: sox as. Well, yeah they're having to travel out to
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: The pacific coast and adjust to the, times but they
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: at least have a day off to kind of do.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: That the one THING i don't like About toronto, though
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: which is well one of the reasons Why i'm gonna
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: stay off of, this is That toronto had a really
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: long win streak the one to not what is this
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: like eleven games in a, row ten or eleven.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: Games in a, row and then they finally.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Lost even though it's an ugly loss to The White,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: sox you want to bounce back from. That when a
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: team is, winning just, winning, winning winning like, that they
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: have a huge win streak snapped a lot of, times
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: that does hang them over into the next.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: Game so that's one.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: Slight drawback With, toronto as they might be in a
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: little bit of a hangover.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: SPOT i do think they.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: Have not only Does toronto have a big time bullpen,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: EDGE i think the offenses are fairly. COMPARABLE i Think
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: toronto does have a starting pitching edge as, well though
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: With max Schurz are on the, mound although he's a
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: little bit questionable. MAN i, mean he's trying to come
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: back from being. Injured we'll see what he can do
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: four point seven to sixty. Area he's he's got kind
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: Of pepio elbow thing going on here. Too, man but it's,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: like when these guys have this elbow, surgery their elbow
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: winds up looking like a fucking year is growing off of.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: It it's.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: Crazy schurzer has a four point seven to SIXTY. Ra
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: he looks like even more of a, freak by the,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: way with his. Heterochromia if you didn't know that about Shurz,
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: er he has one blue eye one brown, eye which
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: is a very rare phenomenon as.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: Well it's more you find it more.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: In like dogs and like huskies and, stuff which my
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: family did have a husky with it actually back in the.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: Day but Shures are it's rare in human Sures are
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: actually does have. That but he is a freak of
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: nature and That he's been an excellent pitcher over his,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: career but this season he's been struggling a little. Bit
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: four point seven to SIXTY, ira one point three to five,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: whip not that, great worse on the, road five point
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: four E ra on the.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: Road so how is he gonna adjust to this really
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: crazy TRIPLE a stadium that THE a is. Playing i'm
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: not so.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: Sure although he hasn't exactly been bad this, year he
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: hasn't allowed more than three or runs in any of his.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: Starts he just hasn't gone deep into those. Starts his
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: team has won his last two. Starts at least he's
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: starting to, throw you, know more. Pitches at least they're
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: kind of ramping him up a little. Bit so some
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: good signs For shurres are but not all. Good The
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: a's haven't even really seen him that much though in
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: fifteen at bats have two hits off, him five, strikeouts two,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: walks one thirty three average four to thirty five. Ops
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: shurzer does have pretty good numbers against the A So
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: i'm still i gotta Prefer shures on this one. Though
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: over seveny you know who has just been, Fade, fade
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: fade at. Home man Seven reno has been horrendous in
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: the stadium this. Year, overall his numbers are really bad.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: Too five point three r, race five point THREE, era
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: one point three to nine. Whip those are bad, enough
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: but in this stadium at, home seven point zero FOUR,
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: era and he's allowed eight of the twelve home runs
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: he's allowed at home, Here he's been really bad at,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: home And i've taken the opportunity to fade him a
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: couple of times at, home and it's worked out, well
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: and he is an awful for him recently, too going
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: five or fewer in in three straight games and allowing
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: at least five runs in all three of. Those his
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: team has lost many of his starts. Recently what is.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: That ten of his last eleven, STARTS i think is
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: what that is have all been losses for The. A'S
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: i mean it has been really really bad for Seven
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: reno and even worse at. Home that last start that
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: he had wasn't even against a good. Offense it was
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: Against San, francisco very bad sign and over those three,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: STARTS i, MEAN i, know one was at The, yankees
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: one was At. Detroit those are not easy offenses to,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: face but even, so just bad numbers. Overall he had
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: six walks over those three starts and only had seven.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: Strikeouts that is a terrible ratio as. Well he's just
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: in terrible. Form but he has pretty good numbers Against.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: Toronto in fifty nine at, bats a TWO zho three,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: average six ninety nine oh ps twenty two strikeouts is
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: quite a bit as. Well he's Dominated springer for the most,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: part three.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: For thirty one with twelve. Strikeouts Although springer.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: Does have two home runs three of the two of
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: the three hits are home runs twenty two to. Nine
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: Straggle walker is your, raw But kirk does have five,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: walks so he seems to just kind of pitch Around
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: kirk a. Bit, overall, though, YES i think it is
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: a matchup edge and a situational edge For. TORONTO i
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: would lean To toronto IF i was gonna play this.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: Game toronto does have the number of the money coming
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: in on them from minus one sixty three eighty five.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: Percent takes ninety three percent of the cash coming in On,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: toronto so the money is coming in on.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: THEM i don't know IF i want.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: To lay a price like that With toronto sures there
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: is kind of the more difficult pitcher to. Predict so
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: this is also a game Where i'd probably go Over
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: toronto's team, total but you're probably gonna need them to
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: score six runs or something around that in this game
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: to get over that team. Total it might, happen, though
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: BECAUSE i, mean Seven reno's been that bad at. Home
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: oakland's bullpen or The a's bullpen is horrible as, well
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: so maybe that's still a fine way to look in that.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: Game and then to finish this, off we have a
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: pretty big series starting between The dodgers In San, francisco
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: and of course the league gave both teams the day
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: off off, yesterday so both teams are rested coming into,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: this so it doesn't mean we should get decent bullpen
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: performance this year a.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: Though of, course Saraan cisco they have a great.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: Bullpend The dodgers' bullpen has been really bad, recently So Sar,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: francisco you gotta give them a bullpen. Edge looking at
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching, matchup on the, surface it looks like
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: you got to Give San francisco a big starting pitching
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: edge as.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: Well when It's may Against.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: Web web is certainly the way better pitcher Over, may
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: but when you look at the specific matchup, numbers if
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: it comes a bit more. Questionable may overall not good this.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: Season four point five to TWO, era one point three
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: to TWO. Whip that's not. Good he's been really bad
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: on the road six point two seven ROAD era way
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: worse on the, Road Although Sar francisco is a weaker
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: offense and this is a more picture friendly, park so
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: Maybe may will do a little bit better in this.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: One he did have a good start last time on
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: against The White sox had nine strikeouts in one. WALK
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: i know it's a Weak White sox, lineup but maybe
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: he's kind of returning formal though his last four starts
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: prior to that we're all, bad including a starting Against
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: San francisco where it didn't look that. Bad they won the,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: game he got the. Win he only gave up three
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: or on runs in six. Innings that's pretty, good but
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: he walked four guys in the game and only struck out,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: Three so his strikeout walk ratio across those five starts
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: in the month Of june was actually bad seventeen to.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: Fifteen so even though he did have a really good
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: performance against The White, SOX i don't know if we're
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: ready to say he's back and for him.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: Yet San francisco did just see.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: Him Although San francisco actually has not done well against him.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: In multiple starts that they've seen him.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: Before in thirty six at, bats he's held into a
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: one ninety four average five oh six ops six to
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: three strike at walk. Ratios, overall may actually has been
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: good Against San, francisco and he at least was good
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: enough to get the job done in that last game
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: Against San, francisco going on Means Logan, webb who Was
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: and excuse me, again AS i Say web is obviously
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher two point six TWO, era one point
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: one to SIX.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: WHIP i, mean great. Season he's been better at. Home
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: so the home road splits are way in favor Of
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: web as.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: Well so WHEN i first saw, THAT i was, thinking,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: oh maybe we get a decent price On San francisco
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: here because they're playing against The. Dodgers but looking at
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: the matchup, NUMBERS i do not want to have anything
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: to do with. That even though the splits look Good
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: web one point five to two HOME, era that is.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: Good he's still in pretty good form. Overall man had
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: a forty three to seven strike a Walk racier In
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: june two point two to THREE era last time out
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: at this difficult a stadium to pitch.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: In he held him to two runs in six and two.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: Thirds he did walk three, guys but he's not really
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: walking a lot of guys.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: Overall SO i don't think he's in bad form or
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: anything like. THAT i think he is in good. Form
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: the problem is This dodgers heavy hitting offense has done
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: well Against web in the. Past they have a lot
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: of experience against them one hundred and eighty. Five at,
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: best they have a ridiculous thirty one to twenty two
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: streke a walk ratio against, Him so they have eight
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: ton of walks Against Logan. Web that's not a good
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: sign For. WEB a three to zero three average a
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: lot on eight to twenty oh. Ps those numbers are
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: not good at. All.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: Man Freddy freeman is fourteen for.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: Forty with a home run five RBIs two walks off,
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: Him bets fifteen to.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: Thirty eight with two doubles to them.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: Runs freeman has three, Doubles so those two guys specifically
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: do a lot of damage against. Them the matchup just
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: doesn't really look that Great, man even though on the,
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: Surface i'm, like oh, Yeah web is way better Than,
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: may especially when he's at home In may is on the.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: Road but the matchup numbers specifically just don't look that.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: Great San francisco's up for minus one twenty to minus
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: one twenty. Five so it almost looks too tempting to
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: take The dodgers as an, underdog, RIGHT i, mean you
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: get The dodgers at an underdog, price it looks. Tempting
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: sixty one percent tickets are on The, dodgers but sixty
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash also coming in on The,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: Dodgers so it looks like the actual money may be
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: coming in on The dodgers as well and taking them
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: maybe just because of the, Price, like, hey you get
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: The dodgers as an. Underdog the one thing The dodgers
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: have going for them is, that, well other other than
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup, numbers the matchup numbers actually look good
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: in the starting pitching matchup before The, dodgers which is
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: kind of crazy to, say but The, dodgers obviously they're
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: one major advantage here that is. Predictable that they're hitting
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: is way. Better The dodgers have the way better, offense
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: and they're the better team in. General but, again their
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: bullpen is certainly not the better, bullpen so.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: You do have to worry about.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: That so if you do like The, DODGERS i might
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: actually maybe limit it to the first five. Innings maybe
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: getting them still at an underdog price in the first
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: five might be the way THAT i would look.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: There and that's gonna do. It, Man we're.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: Through it's been a long video and we have a
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: lot of baseball three PLAYS i gave it on the
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: Show indiana fever in THE wnba either moneyline or minus
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: one and a half over nine in The Mets Kansas city.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: Game if you can still find that number out, there
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: hopefully you can at that decent. Price, Pittsburgh minnesota in
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: baseball under the total of, seven WHICH i saw at
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: a decent price out there minus won. Twelve and THEN
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: i do still kind of want to go over In
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: Arizona anaheim and that looks like such an over game to?
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: Me should we do?
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: It should we just go over the eight and the
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: nine and a half even though it is a big number?
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: There let me, Look i'm tempted to do. It. Man
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: SHOULD i just add it like right at the end?
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: Here last? Minute should we risk? It should we go
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: risky on? This let me see?
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: HERE i, MEAN i really wanted to find an over
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: and over nine though you can find over nine and
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: a half at reduced.
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: Juice but why can't, dude why can't you find The
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: let me?
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: See let me look At DraftKings specific AS i look
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: at An action network because it just has all the books,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: listed but maybe it's not quite up to.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: Date let me just see on the Uh, diamondbacks what
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: do we got? Here the.
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: Total, YEAH i mean they're listening at nine and a.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: Half i'm gonna see if there are just alternate lines
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: here me look at game.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: Lines alternate.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: Total, yeah you can go over over the Nine is
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: it minus one twenty?
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: Seven? Though, MAN i mean that's that's a tough. One.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: MAN i wanted to find it at minus one? Twenty
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: do we do? That do we want to go over
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: the nine and a half at a reduced juice? Price?
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: THERE i, mean it depends on what you. Think, LIKE
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: i usually will only go up to minus one twenty on.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: It you know, WHAT i like? It so fuck, It we're.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: Gonna go over and over in that.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: Game do and take it a reduced Juice this is
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: What Arizona diamondbacks Over arizona And ANAIM i mean over
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: the nine and a half at plus one oh. Five, yeah,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: whatever that's gonna be the additional play, there and that's
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: gonna do. It.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: Man so those three plays? Today how about the are
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: four plays? Three in?
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: Baseball learn to tone On twitter for me better off
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: dead or at off dead? Better you can find me
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: On instagram as. Well i'm posting short videos WHERE i
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: post for each play THAT i give on the.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: SHOW i post a short video for on The.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: Instagram you can find me on the audio, platforms WHICH
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: i really want to ramp that, up, man so, please you, know,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: listen find me over, There Better Off dead on all
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: the audio stuff On, iTunes, spotify, whatever, subscribe give me a, review,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: Man let's try to have this thing take. Off we're
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: over three hundred subscribers at least on the. YouTube i
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: don't know how many people like my autistic. Rambling it's
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: maybe not entertaining, enough BUT i do it every. Day
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: it's a, grind so hopefully we get some more, subscribers more,
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: viewers comments on the. YouTube And i'm also at covered
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: In yuke on, YouTube Which i'm posting all My yuke
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: videos THAT i post To, Twitter i'm posting them all
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: on that YouTube as. Well and, probably AS i keep pointing,
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: OUT i am going to have A patreon at some.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: Point Learned toad probably is gonna be the, patreon AND
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: i may Have Yuke patreon content where you get access
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: to A SPOTIFY yuk. Feed Maybe i'll do an ad
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: Free Better Off dead audio feed on it as, well
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: Which i'm depends how difficult that is to get set.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: UP i have to figure everything out. There SO i
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: still have to figured it all.
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: Out AND i think the highest level Of patreon will
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: get to request yuke covers from. Me that's gonna do it.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: Again learn to. Toad, everybody have a good, One Happy.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: Friday let's have a good start to the. Weekend everyone
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: and peace, out y