Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Michael Saylor Predicts $13M Bitcoin on National TV | EP 1071

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Michael Saylor Predicts $13M Bitcoin on National TV | EP 1071 · Simply Bitcoin

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Music. Yeah, I'm going to see the
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Bitcoin live your number one source of the peaceful Bitcoin
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be your guide through the separation of money and stay
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wow. So first rebrand intro and drop
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the ball a little bit, but it's OK, we we keep the show rolling.
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Ladies and gentlemen, also crazy, crazy news.
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Michael Saylor going on on CNBC this morning and dropping the
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hot fire. He's literally predicting $13
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million Bitcoin on legacy financial media.
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Here's the clip. Check it out.
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Of the capital in the world right now, I think it's going to
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go to 7% of the capital. 7%. My long term forecast is it's
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going to go to 13,000,000 / 21 years. 13 million. 13 But what?
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What is it five years from now in your four year calculus?
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You know, it's been growing 44% of years with about a 40 to 50
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Vol. I would think it'll it'll move
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on it 40 percent, then click down to 35, then 30, then 25.
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And at some point, it'll be the S&P return plus 8% and will be
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the S&P Vol plus 8% because it's always going to be a more global
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open free capital market. How is there stuff that's above
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your pay grade? You're worth billions.
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I mean, we can say that is above our pay grade, but who gets to
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decide if it's above your pay grade?
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He might have been. It's below his pay grade.
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Right. Exactly.
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Exactly. Bitcoins an expression in this
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view that you want to invest in an asset without counterparty
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risk, which means you don't want to be counterparty to a country,
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a currency, a city, a company, a commodity or a culture, right?
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So it's people think it's a risky thing.
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It's all about people wanting to not take risk.
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They don't want to guess whether Picasso's or real estate in New
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York or NVIDIA stock will be higher in 10 years.
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They want to buy money. They want to buy 121 millionth
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of all the money in the world forever.
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And it there, Michael, thank you.
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Great. Michael, thank you.
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All right, ladies and gentlemen here joined with my legendary Co
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host Optimus Fields and our guest for today, Paul from
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Compass Mining. And starting with the cold
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opening, I mean Michael Saylor dropping those $13 million
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prediction. This is on legacy financial
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media. They didn't laugh him out of the
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room. They took him seriously.
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They're like, wow, like this guy is smart.
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This guy is for real. And of course, he has the
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numbers to back it up. MicroStrategy is the best
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performing stock in the S&P 500 the last four years.
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Outperforming. I got, I know you guys are going
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to make fun of me of how I pronounce the video.
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I don't care, I'm from Miami, that's how I'm going to say it.
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But outperforming NVIDIA, which is OK, NVIDIA, whatever, you
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guys get the point. Outperforming, outperforming
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the, you know, one of the most valuable companies in the world
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makes it's like one of the best GPU manufacturers.
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Of course, you know, after AI took off, a lot of their, you
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know, products are in need by companies that are developing AI
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and it still MicroStrategy still outperformed them.
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Imagine if, if NVIDIA held a portion of their treasury in
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Bitcoin, like they, you know, they, they would have literally,
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you know, they, they would have, they would have literally put a
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rocket ship behind their stock. Like, and the same applies to
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all the big tech stocks like Google, Tesla, Apple, all of
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them. You know, Bitcoin is, is a
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superpower. Bitcoin is, is a cheat code
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literally not only to public companies, I would say also to
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nation states, but most importantly to individuals as
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well. So I'm going to pass it on to
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Paul. Paul, I mean, does that surprise
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you? Look, look how look at how far
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we've come, right? Because five years ago, if you
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would have said that on traditional legacy financial
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media, they would have laughed you out of the room, they
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wouldn't have aired you. And now it's taken seriously.
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And I think it's a combination of, of course, micro strategies,
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proof of work, the performance, also Larry Fink entering the
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field. We had a video coming out last
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week of of Howard Lepnick from Counter Fitzgerald also speaking
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very positive things about Bitcoin as well.
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So it looks like we're heading into a new era of Bitcoins
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history, Bitcoins growing up, it's being taken seriously by
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the legacy financial players. And Michael Saylor is leading
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the charge. It's, it's, it's crazy.
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In 21 years, $13 million Bitcoin.
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So for $56,000 today, that could be worth 13 million in 21 years
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if Michael Saylor's strategy plays out.
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By the way, that's not that's not his bull case.
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His bulk case is $49 million per Bitcoin in 21 years, which is
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absolutely crazy. So Paul, what's your take on
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that? Does it surprise you at all?
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I mean it, it doesn't surprise me.
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I think it's hard to, I, I don't think you can laugh a guy like
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Michael Saylor out of the room. You know, he, he knows what he's
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doing. He, he's clearly successful and
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like you said, the performance of his stocks over the last few
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years. If, if he speaks, people should
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probably listen. Maybe, maybe they'll be a bit
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skeptical about it. But if you've been in this space
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for any kind of length of time, like I, I remember back in 2016
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thinking, you know, oh, I missed the boat.
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Bitcoin is like 1 1/2 thousand dollars.
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I'm so late to the party and kind of, you know, look at it
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now. So now I I think it's definitely
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worth taking note of. Would I bet my entire family's
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financial future on us? No, but I wouldn't do that with
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anything. Would I take it very seriously
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though, and and get myself exposure if I didn't already
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have it? Yeah, I totally would.
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Absolutely. I, I, I think it's, I think it's
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irresponsible at this point. If you're in the legacy
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financial world, if you're not offering, you know it.
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If you don't have exposure to Bitcoin, even if it's a very,
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very small percentile, 1% exposure, 2% exposure, I think
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it's irresponsible at this point not to be, not to have some type
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of exposure to Bitcoin. And I, I think you're starting
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to see that, right. There's some news broke that
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Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, the Wisconsin pension fund all have
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exposure to Bitcoin via the Bitcoin ETF.
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Not to mention, of course, all the massive ETFs.
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And it looks like the the majority of hedge funds also
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have some type of exposure either through micro strategy or
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through the ETFs as well. Of course, ideally in the, you
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know, in an ideal world, in a utopian world, everyone would
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have spot Bitcoin and self custody.
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Looks like they're outsourcing custody to Coinbase.
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Of course, we don't see that as a good thing, but I think it's a
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step in the right direction. Opti, how you doing Optimus
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Fields, bro first day with the rebrands on the live show.
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I'm feeling really, really good. This this worked really, really
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hard this morning to get all the assets ready for you guys and
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still didn't come out perfect, but we we, we get.
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Better. Yeah, you guys couldn't see me,
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but I was definitely laughing at Nico behind the scenes because
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he just. Butchered it.
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It was great. It was great.
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Love to see the growing pains. But yeah, on the Sailor clip, I,
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I thought you were going to play.
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There was another clip like the full clip here.
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And I saw American Hotto posted this morning of Sailor on Squawk
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box and just just the, the, the pure Glee that you see from
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Sailor. There's like, hey man, were you
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panicking for a while? And he's basically like, no, I
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was right. Bitcoin's going to the moon.
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Bitcoin is the only play in the room.
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And it just really goes to show the, the progression as a
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bitcoiner. Even Michael Saylor and everyone
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else that gets into Bitcoin, you know, Larry Fink is probably
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going through this. We're seeing the, the, the Trump
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family go through this. You still have to learn and go
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through your, your cost of tuition to understand what's
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going on in the Bitcoin space. And even if Michael Saylor, you
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know, billionaire out there buying 1% of the total Bitcoin
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supply, I'm sure there was moments there where he was even
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having to rethink his strategy. And now, as we've been saying
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for a long time, completely vindicated in the strategy.
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It's becoming completely obvious to all of us Bitcoiners, and
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soon enough it'll become obvious to everyone else that you need
8:59
to have some Bitcoin in your own personal treasure.
9:02
You need to hold some Bitcoin. This is the only way to actually
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survive and thrive through the next 1020 years.
9:09
And so love to see that Sailor is going on corporate press
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saying the same things he's saying on the Bitcoin conference
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and it's being received well. So as much as we are all feeling
9:21
the pain, excuse me, a 50K Bitcoin and we are kind of
9:26
looked at as crazy people because we're making $1,000,000
9:28
like the the prediction just keep getting higher and higher.
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So bull tarted AF. Let's see what happens when the
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price starts running. You love to see it.
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Absolutely, absolutely. All right, everybody, we will
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play you the clip from American Hoddle.
9:40
We'll have that saved up for you guys during the numbers segment
9:43
so we can react to it. And I love Hoddle's post to it,
9:46
Hoddle's take to it, which is golden as well.
9:48
So stay tuned. But before we do that, I do want
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All right everybody, let's get to numbers.
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At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is 56,120 sats per
12:04
dollar coming out of the depths of hell.
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Sats per dollar 1782 block height 860,641 blocks to having
12:12
189,359 having estimate March 22nd, 2028 Total Lightning
12:19
Network capacity 4930 85 BTC capacity value 277 million U.S.
12:26
dollars Realized monetary inflation 1.39% Market
12:31
capitalization 1.11 trillion Bitcoin verse gold market cap
12:37
6.41%. In the grand scheme of things we
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are just getting started. Anyways, I'm so glad that Opti
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brought this up so we can react to it because it was a legendary
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post from a legendary bitcoiner. Of course, the American huddle
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and of course what he says is what cool moment.
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It feels weird to be proud of a billionaire, but in Bitcoin
12:58
terms, I'm a big bro to Michael. His huddle journey has been very
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public and just as emotional, full of turmoil as the rest of
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us. I completely agree.
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I I never forget this. I'm class of 2016 by the way, so
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and so is Opti. Class 26, 2016, 2017, around the
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same era, same epoch, and Michael Saylor's class of 2020.
13:21
So you have to pay your dues. Like, of course, Michael Saylor
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has much more purchasing power and he has a giant public
13:28
company that he could leverage to buy more Bitcoin.
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He could borrow against it, but you still have to pay your price
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of tuition. Remember, Bitcoin doesn't give
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special privileges. So Michael had to buy spot
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Bitcoin over a long period of time, just like the rest of us.
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And what tends to happen is the first epoch that is the most
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painful because most people get into Bitcoin in the bowl, right?
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You get in when the price is flying and you get absolutely
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wrecked. And that's why we call it paying
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the price of tuition. And I remember Pacific Bitcoin
14:02
2021, Michael Saylor sitting in the front row, the price of
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Bitcoin is at 16,000. His average buy price is 30,000.
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So he's down 50%. But remember, he bought billions
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of dollars worth of Bitcoin and he just had a stone cold face,
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right? And then of course, the price
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climbed out of the depths of hell.
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And it, you know, it, it, it peaked at 60 something thousand
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and or, or, you know, 70, it went up to 72,000.
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And now we're kind of, you know, going sideways until the next
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leg up. And he's been vindicated.
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But this is a journey that we've all been through, especially if
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you've been here a couple cycles.
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The only difference is that for Saylor, he is a public figure.
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So it's a very, he went through what we've all been through.
14:53
You know, those texts that you get from friends and family,
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like I got a text from my, my mom's been in Bitcoin for eight
14:59
years now. Hey, mom.
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And I swear to God, like I still get texts from my mom saying why
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is Bitcoin going down? She's been asking me that for
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eight years now. I just reply, it's going to 0.
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That's all. Now I used to like explain and
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like whatever. Now I just say it's going to 0.
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But you know, imagine the text that he must have been getting.
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Imagine the pressure that he must have been feeling from his
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from his shareholders. So anyways, Hado goes on to say
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his Hado journey has been very public and just as emotional and
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full of turmoil as the rest of us.
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Michael was peers was Bezos. He was one of the longest
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reigning tech CEOs from the.com bubble onwards.
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Except unlike Bezos, he was overlooked.
15:40
His company left to chug along for decades, neither taking over
15:43
the world nor exploding in infamy.
15:46
Just a solid company that existed in in relative obscurity
15:50
to most of the population. It must have bothered Michael
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somewhat because you could tell that he is just as smart and
15:56
calculating as his famous peers who've gotten all the headlines
15:59
over the last 25 years. To them, he's like the rest of
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us Bitcoiners, a bit of a misfit.
16:04
Someone who fell through the cracks.
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After years of patience, he can now confidently sit in the CNNBC
16:10
studio and declare to the talking heads and the world
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direct to their face. Yes, I was right.
16:16
Yes, I am beating metaphorically, metaphorically
16:19
all of you. And that's the re emptive power
16:21
of Bitcoin. Whether you're a billionaire or
16:23
a pleb, you have the ability to hit a hard reset and take your
16:27
rightful place at the table. In many ways, large and small,
16:31
Bitcoin is about renegotiating your place in the world.
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Man, freaking Hoddle coming in hot.
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Anyways, here's the clip. You have a lot of courage
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because there's been a lot of major swings in the past and
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there were times when when I was worried.
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Can you tell me, were you ever close to to margin calls?
16:52
Anything ever happening to MicroStrategy?
16:55
Well, when Silvergate Bank failed, we had to redeem that,
16:58
but it turned out to be a benefit for us.
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We made a lot of money on that redemption.
17:01
We repaid our Silvergate loan. But it's been a great journey.
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Since August 10th of 2020, MicroStrategy has bought about
17:10
$8.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and bitcoins, up 44% a year.
17:18
On average. Since then the S&P is up 12%,
17:21
and since we levered it, we're up 825%.
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The number one performing stock in the S&P is NVIDIA, up 821% as
17:30
of Friday. So we beat every single company
17:33
in the S&P index using Bitcoin strategy.
17:38
So I mean a lot of courage, like, yeah, I mean, talk like
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taking the taking the victory lap.
17:45
Paul, what's your take on all this?
17:47
So like, I mean, my thoughts on it are I think he's had a
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similar journey to all of us. Like he, like he said, we kind
17:57
of, we've all been through that thing with the parents texting
18:00
you were friends thinking you're notes, all that kind of stuff.
18:04
My kind of early journey in it, doing a bit of trading, what
18:07
kind of amounts of money I could afford to lose.
18:12
It was easy in the sense of it was easy to, you know, not get
18:17
overly emotionally involved in a trade.
18:20
But once I started making a bit of money doing it and making
18:23
bigger trades, it got a lot more difficult because it was a lot
18:27
harder to keep my emotions in check.
18:29
So I can only imagine what he went through given the the, the
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amount of money we're talking about when it when it comes to
18:36
him, how difficult that was for him.
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But I think it pretty much echoes, just on a much larger
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scale, the same journey that a lot of us have actually gone
18:45
through. 100% it, it, it, it's just, it's just magnified.
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It's multiplied just because he had a, he had a lot more
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purchasing power when he got in, right.
18:54
Anyways, Opti, what's your take on all this brother?
18:56
Yeah, just kind of echoing what Paul was saying, I think in
19:00
relative terms, most Bitcoiners all feel kind of very similar
19:04
emotions in regards to the Bitcoin price roller coaster,
19:09
especially if you're just an average person of average means,
19:12
whatever you put into Bitcoin is probably a decent investment for
19:15
yourself. And if you are on the Michael
19:18
Saylor's level of the world, they're also doing the same
19:22
thing. What Saylor always say, we
19:23
always say the same thing. All 8 billion people on planet
19:26
Earth have the same problem and there's nothing to save in.
19:28
We can't save in dollars. And so everyone is looking at
19:32
the same playing field. And once you understand Bitcoin,
19:34
once it clicks in your mind, you realize the game it's you are
19:38
trying to protect whatever wealth you do have in Bitcoin.
19:41
And until you fully understand the cycles, the the full
19:46
technicals of the network, what's actually going on in the
19:48
macro landscape, you still probably get a little nervous
19:52
when you get these price fluctuations.
19:54
And then you get to the point where all of us get to the
19:56
point, at least here on simply Bitcoin and all of our friends
19:58
on Twitter, where you find that Bitcoin Zen and price drops are
20:02
just Bitcoin on sale. If you like Bitcoin at all time
20:05
highs, you're gonna love them at all time lows because you just
20:07
get more sets for the the purchasing power that you are
20:10
putting into Bitcoin. So I think we all have the same.
20:14
Game that plays out in our head until you fully understand
20:17
what's going on, until you fully understand what is actually
20:20
happening with Bitcoin and you realize that Bitcoin is the
20:22
stable coin, that Bitcoin is the one thing that you want to save
20:25
in. Where again, we're all playing
20:27
the same game and it's trying to protect whatever wealth you do
20:30
have. And yes, until you understand
20:33
that game price fluctuations do scare you.
20:36
And then after a certain point it's just like, yeah, whatever I
20:39
get, I get stats for cheap bitcoins on sale.
20:42
This is great. As I've said in the past, yes,
20:45
once the price drops and you get to this point, it's like it's
20:49
beautiful. You're like, yes, I get more
20:51
sets and then once the price starts ripping, it's a little
20:53
bittersweet and you're like, man, this is awesome.
20:55
My wealth is going up in relative terms and purchasing
20:58
power, but I'm also now buying less SAT.
21:02
So you're like, man, this sucks. So once you get to that point,
21:05
then I think the the real game starts playing out that I always
21:08
say it's you're playing hungry Hippo with Bitcoin, you're
21:10
playing Pac-Man. You want to acquire and
21:12
accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible.
21:13
And even the billionaires of the world are starting to learn
21:16
this. And I think we're seeing this
21:17
play out right now with the like Michael Dell, not, not Mike
21:22
Odell, Mike Odell of Dell. I think he's kind of playing
21:26
that game right now. You see him kind of teasing
21:28
Bitcoin and and tweeting some Bitcoin Twitter stuff.
21:31
But he's playing a smart game instead of doing what Saylor
21:33
does where he was basically our billionaire cheerleader.
21:36
He's not he's, you know, he's keeping his cards close to his
21:39
chest because he's still probably trying to accumulate
21:41
and get some wealth out of the traditional financial world.
21:44
So everyone goes through the same learning curve in Bitcoin
21:47
and it doesn't matter like Hoddle was saying, American
21:50
Hoddle was saying it whether you're billion, your plan,
21:52
whether you're, you're, you know, have the most money in the
21:55
world or just trying to save whatever you're saving, we have
21:58
an equal playing field. And it's trying to acquire as
22:00
much Bitcoin as possible. And the emotions that play out
22:03
inside of you, they're all the same.
22:05
And This is why we always tell everyone the best move on the
22:09
chess board is just do nothing to just acquire Bitcoin.
22:12
Take it into custody, make sure your cash flow is coming in so
22:15
you can acquire more Bitcoin. This is the game being played
22:18
out right now in the world is slowly but surely catching on a.
22:21
100 percent, 100% Anyways, before we move on to the news
22:24
segment, I do want us to react to this post.
22:28
By the way, guys, I went down the Noster rabbit hole this this
22:33
weekend and it reminds me of the early days of when I got into
22:37
Bitcoin and going down the initial Bitcoin rabbit hole.
22:40
Like what this protocol is going to enable is mind blowing
22:46
because you have to understand you can build on top of that.
22:48
So you know, primal and Damus their Damus, they you know, they
22:54
have very kind of Twitter esque type of interfaces, but you can
23:00
essentially build whatever you want on top of it.
23:04
And it's just full of possibilities.
23:06
And the reason I'm going down this rabbit hole is because I'm
23:08
trying to figure out an effective way of uploading the
23:11
simply Bitcoin show on to Noster.
23:14
But it's it's different because it's a protocol.
23:16
It's not a centralized platform where there's a server.
23:18
So still trying to figure that out.
23:19
Anyways, I do us. I do want us to react to this
23:23
post by Jeff Booth. He said what would be the
23:26
primary rule of a, quote, rules based international order
23:30
sitting on top of the money that steals from people.
23:33
That is a very, very deep, very, very deep like message.
23:40
And one of the things that blew my mind every single time that
23:45
Jeff Booth came on the show was he talks about it.
23:47
He's like Nico, if there's a system that's based on theft,
23:52
coercion is necessary. And if coercion is necessary,
23:56
censorship is necessary. So it all kind of stems like it
24:00
all starts to explain all these things because think about it,
24:05
if people willing, if people truly knew how money worked, if
24:09
people actually knew that money could exist that didn't that
24:15
that doesn't have inflation is in is in fact deflationary.
24:20
You know, I, I, I think people would start to ask some very
24:22
difficult question of their governments, right.
24:25
So, you know, that's a very, very, you know, mind opening
24:28
post from Jeff Booth. Like what is an international
24:32
base order? If, if the base layer that the
24:35
society is using is, is, is corrupted and it's based on
24:38
theft. So I think that's, you know, it
24:40
makes you ask some very important questions.
24:42
Anyways, don't pass it on to Paul and then Opti.
24:45
Yeah, it it does raise a lot of very serious questions.
24:50
I think part of the problem is that we as well, maybe not,
24:54
maybe not so much else in the audience here, but people in
24:57
general are so conditions to accepting the current state of
25:02
things that they don't ask these questions.
25:04
And when when someone does, or when they hear the answers to
25:08
them, they find themselves nearly in disbelief that this
25:13
kind of thing could be going on at such a large level.
25:18
Absolutely 100% Opti. Real quick, your take before we
25:21
get on to the news. Yeah, well, just answering Jeff
25:24
Booth's question, it, it would fundamentally overturn the the
25:26
status quo of the world right now and everything would change.
25:29
And This is why we say all the time as Bitcoiners fix the
25:32
money, fix the world, the the status quo that we live right
25:35
now is extracting, or rather the elites on the top, the the
25:39
powers that be, whatever you want to call them, are
25:40
extracting as much wealth out of the at the citizenry as
25:44
possible. And there's a lot of, I would
25:47
argue, waste in in that system. And once people are able to
25:50
retain their purchasing power and store as much as their
25:54
capital as possible, I argue that the world would be better.
25:57
And this is what we're seeing play out, hence why we're seeing
26:00
so many attacks on Bitcoin because they don't want people
26:03
saving in something that doesn't steal from them because it does
26:05
fundamentally change the way the world works right now.
26:09
So this is the game being played out.
26:11
We're seeing capital leave the traditional financial sector and
26:14
move into Bitcoin. And this game's probably going
26:17
to play out for the next decade or two and we'll see what
26:20
happens. Obviously, once Bitcoin gets a
26:22
big price movement, people are going to start waking up at
26:26
everyone has the same kind of learning curve in Bitcoin where
26:30
you start chasing the Bitcoin price as it goes up because
26:33
you're like, oh, the FOMO of, you know, the fear of missing
26:36
out. And I think this is what we're
26:38
going to see happen in real time.
26:40
And with that is kind of what I've been saying for the last
26:42
couple of weeks, that with that will come different attack
26:45
vectors of trying to Co opt this Bitcoin network, trying to Co
26:48
opt the movement. And it's important for us to
26:50
stay vigilant because things will fundamentally change again,
26:54
fix the money, fix the world. Everything is downstream from
26:57
the money. And if we're moving on to a
26:59
different money standard, things are going to change for the
27:01
better, I would argue. 100% guys if you're enjoying the show on
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takes 2 seconds and of course, let's move on to new segment
27:19
guys. We have so much content for you
27:21
guys left, so stay tuned. Let's check it out here we go
27:26
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your piece of Bitcoin. All right everybody, I do want
29:15
to take advantage of the fact that Paul is here and let's talk
29:19
a little about a little bit about what is going on in the
29:22
mining world. So the difficulty the hash rate
29:26
continues to go up continues to make just all time highs.
29:30
Hash rate is a representation of the amount of computational
29:34
power that is actively mining the Bitcoin network.
29:37
You want the hash rate to go up. Theoretically, the higher the
29:40
hash rate, the, you know, higher Bitcoin security, the higher
29:43
because the harder it becomes to computationally attack and it
29:47
continues to go up despite the having despite it being one of
29:52
the toughest moments to mine in in in bitcoins history and also
29:56
despite the difficulty reaching all time highs as well.
30:00
Right. And you're not only seeing this,
30:03
you know, the the hash rate isn't just indicating this, but
30:06
if you put together some news articles, we'll go through them
30:09
right now, specifically this one from Bloomberg Bhutan to upgrade
30:13
Bitcoin mining in Himalayas as having looms.
30:16
So that's that's super crazy. And specifically the numbers is
30:20
I believe they upgraded from the, they upgraded from the
30:26
plant upgrades will increase the Himalayan Kingdom's mining
30:29
capacity by 500 megawatts. They started with 100 megawatts,
30:34
I might add. And they upgraded it right
30:36
before the having. So they knew that the rewards
30:40
were literally going to get cut in half, but they upgraded their
30:44
mining capacity regardless. And that just tells me that the
30:49
Kingdom of Bhutan and all these public miners and miners in
30:52
general are very optimistic and bullish about Bitcoins future
30:57
because they're putting their money where their mouth is,
30:59
literally. So the headline here in
31:02
Bloomberg is Bhutan to upgrade Bitcoin mining and Himalayas as
31:05
having looms. Here is an article by Bitcoin
31:08
Magazine. Japan's largest power company
31:11
TEPCO is mining Bitcoin using renewables like that's crazy.
31:16
Can you imagine the largest the largest power company of a
31:19
nation, Japan. So it's a very, very developed
31:21
nation, very wealthy nation is using excess energy keyword
31:26
there excess energy to mine Bitcoin themselves like that is
31:31
bonkers. And of course, El Salvador.
31:33
El Salvador came out that El Salvador mined nearly 474
31:37
Bitcoiner bitcoins, adding to state crypto holdings in the
31:41
last three years alone. So this is a worldwide
31:44
phenomenon. Despite the rewards going down,
31:47
despite the difficulty continuing to go up, despite the
31:50
hash rate continuing to go up, it seems like people all over
31:54
the world continue to want to mine.
31:57
And I'm going to pass it on to Paul.
31:59
Paul, what? What do you see here?
32:01
Like why is this happening? It it, it, it almost sounds like
32:04
counter intuitive, right? Like mining less Bitcoin, it's
32:07
harder to mine Bitcoin, but people see still keep doubling
32:11
down mining Bitcoin. Why is that?
32:13
Yeah. Well, I, I suppose a lot of that
32:16
probably comes back to, I mean, we're looking at, you know,
32:19
Michael Saylor talking earlier, a lot of it comes down to
32:22
people's belief and where Bitcoin is going to end up.
32:25
Like they're, they're willing to accept the, the short term risk
32:29
and in some cases loss if you're, if they're mining at a
32:33
loss for that kind of medium to long term gain.
32:37
So, you know, there's, there's going to be financial kind of
32:40
incentives for that. And then there's also going to
32:42
be an element of tribalism because people believe in in
32:46
Bitcoin and what that kind of looks like to the world in a
32:50
sense of equality. So the kind of behaviour that
32:54
you're seeing now is the kind of behaviour we saw back in 2020 as
32:59
well. We set up Compass just kind of
33:02
after the last having in 2020. And for a while things were kind
33:08
of slow, but then, you know, it really started kicking off.
33:12
And as soon as the next kind of bull market took off, I mean
33:17
that that was it. Everyone who had bought their
33:20
miners in that repressed kind of bear market, then you know,
33:25
they, they mined for a year, 2 years, sold their miners for
33:29
four or five times what they bought them with and kept all
33:31
the Bitcoin that they mined. So there there is, there is some
33:34
smart thinking in it. If you look at the purchase of
33:37
that kind of mining equipment somewhat like like a trade that
33:41
you would make. Absolutely.
33:43
And do you think and and like and, and you're, you're what
33:48
you're suggesting is that these miners, these nation states,
33:52
these companies like that's essentially what they're betting
33:54
on. They're betting on essentially
33:56
is the future price appreciation of Bitcoin and they're
34:00
positioning themselves to take advantage of that upcoming wave.
34:06
And and just to kind of give you guys an idea like the 500, like
34:10
how much just just to just to explain it because I think the
34:14
number doesn't give it justice. How much is 500 megawatts?
34:20
Paul of my. I mean some, some kind of off
34:24
the napkin kind of mats here you're talking to 250,000
34:34
machines. You know, each one of those
34:36
could cost depending on the kind of model anywhere from, you
34:40
know, 500 bucks, 1000 bucks for all genes all the way up to 5000
34:45
for a new Gen. So it is.
34:46
It's a significant investment whatever way you look at it.
34:49
Yeah, absolutely. And what's your take on the the
34:53
nation states like mining Bitcoin?
34:55
So of course we know Salvador, El Salvador's Bitcoin country.
34:59
But this news came out about seven hours ago.
35:02
Japan's largest power company, TEPCO is mining Bitcoin using
35:06
renewables. Do you see that trend continuing
35:09
moving forward? Do you see more nation states
35:11
actively mining Bitcoin using renewal using excess energy?
35:16
Absolutely. I mean, you see the financial
35:18
institutions like Cantor and that get getting, you know, into
35:22
Bitcoin. Obviously sailors pretty double
35:25
down into it. There's no reason to think that
35:27
those kind of nation states beyond what we currently know
35:31
would not follow that trend. I think they can all see the
35:34
writing on the wall. It's way past the point of, oh,
35:38
we can ignore this stupid Bitcoin geek thing like it's
35:42
that's just not a thing anymore. It's a serious thing and I think
35:46
they're all starting to wake up to it and realize, oh, we, we
35:49
don't want to miss the boat. So I I think it's FOMO, but on a
35:52
national, an international level.
35:54
Yeah. And, and at what point does this
35:56
like snowball like, like, at what point is like every, you
36:01
know, nation state in the world and, you know, these these large
36:05
energy companies, because I see like energy companies and
36:08
Bitcoin mining, like I feel like that's a match made in heaven.
36:11
Like what, what, what? What do you anticipate over the
36:14
next 5 to 10 years? It is and I think there will be
36:17
much more of an openness from energy companies to realize, oh,
36:21
all this excess energy that we're producing and we can't do
36:25
anything with, we can actually let these guys use it.
36:28
You know, it's good for us, it's good for the grid, it's good for
36:32
it's pretty much a win win situation for everybody.
36:35
So the more of them that open themselves up to that
36:38
possibility, then the better it's just going to be.
36:41
Why do you think, why do you think that there has been some
36:45
type of negative press regarding Bitcoin mining's energy usage?
36:50
And do you think that, like, I mean it to me, I'm looking at
36:54
this and I'm seeing that like people are putting their money
36:58
where their mouth is, like the hash rate continues to grow.
37:01
So clearly that negative press is not doing anything, but what
37:04
do you, what do you think the the motivations behind that
37:07
press is? Is it, is it perhaps a
37:10
misunderstanding of what Bitcoin mining is?
37:12
Is it a little bit more malicious to reference Jeff
37:17
Booth's post? What's your take on that, Paul?
37:22
I my my personal take on it is it is probably old money fearing
37:28
what Bitcoin represents and trying to figure out a way to
37:33
undermine it at its at its very core and try to turn kind of
37:38
people against it, to be perfectly honest.
37:41
Because once once you look into the arguments that are kind of
37:44
made about, you know, Bitcoin mining, but boiling the ocean
37:47
and its energy use, you realize, oh, well, it's energy that was
37:50
going to be wasted anyway in very large amount of the cases.
37:55
So that's kind of my take on it. I may be wrong but.
38:00
Absolutely. Opti you have any?
38:02
Do you have any thoughts or questions?
38:03
Yeah, Well, I have one question, but I think I'm going to save
38:05
that one for the for the culture.
38:07
So just kind of adding to this, we've seen very recently and,
38:11
and just kind of, you know, doubling down on that meme that
38:14
the global hash war is is playing out in real time.
38:18
So what's your thoughts on that meme of, of global hash war?
38:20
And are we actually seeing this or is this us Bitcoiners with
38:24
confirmation bias and, and you know, being really bullish on on
38:28
that meme? I mean, like it's happening
38:30
guys, we we like to get really bull tarted in, in regards to
38:33
Bitcoin. So do you, do you see personally
38:35
a global hash war playing out or maybe the software thesis
38:39
playing out? Like what's your thoughts on
38:40
that idea? I don't know if it's if, if, if
38:45
a war is is is the correct word for it.
38:47
That sounds a little, a little aggressive.
38:50
But I do think that you're going to see, yeah, you're going to
38:53
see people scrambling to position themselves as best as
38:58
they can. And like, like with Japan and
39:02
some of the other places that you that you've named, anyone
39:06
who's not doing it over the next few years, they're probably
39:10
going to want to get on board, even if for no other reason that
39:14
everyone else is doing it. We better do this.
39:16
We may not see the point in it, but like, yeah, we're going to
39:20
be missing out. Well, actually I have one more
39:23
question and I love this this idea.
39:26
It's the idea that Bitcoin miners will soon become the
39:31
energy producers of the world and the energy producers will
39:35
obviously become Bitcoin miners. So what's your thoughts on that
39:38
synthesis is are Bitcoin miners going to become the energy
39:41
producers of the world or do you think it'll be more of a
39:44
symbiotic relationship where energy producers will need a
39:47
Bitcoin mining strategy? I think it would be much more
39:51
symbiotic. I think there's there's room for
39:53
boats to coexist and that's actually where it works best.
39:56
It works best for the for the environment.
39:58
It works best for miners. It works best for for people who
40:03
just live in places and need electricity.
40:06
Like what a lot of people don't realize is the grid stability
40:09
that Bitcoin mining adds to to any grid is good for those
40:14
people who aren't involved in Bitcoin who just live on that
40:17
grid. So that symbiosis is the key.
40:22
Absolutely, absolutely. The synergy.
40:24
Synergy anyways. All right, everybody, before we
40:26
move on to the culture. I don't know.
40:30
I, I, I didn't think you were trying to punt it, but it was,
40:32
it was it, it turned out to be a good punt synergy.
40:36
I it was does it make sense anyway guys, if you guys are
40:39
enjoying the show, make sure to help us smash that like button
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YouTube rumble NX all right everybody let's get on to the
40:52
culture talk about compass mining also talk about Paul.
40:54
Let's check it out here we go all right everybody before we
41:10
talk to Paul, I do want to give a shout out to our sponsor, the
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Scan the QR code or check the link in the video description.
41:54
So anyways, Paul, so happy to have you on the show today.
41:58
And yes, ladies and gentlemen, we did pick up a new sponsor.
42:02
We picked up Compass mining. So Paul, I do want to give you
42:04
the floor. What is Compass mining?
42:07
Thanks. So yeah, Compass mining, we we
42:10
sell the hardware that's needed for mining Bitcoin.
42:14
We also sell space in data Centers for hosting that
42:18
hardware. So there's no real MO Q on it.
42:21
You can you can order one unit, you can order 100 units.
42:25
We cater to retail and the the small miners.
42:30
We also cater to much larger industrial level kind of, you
42:35
know, mining and that's kind of the basic offering of where it
42:39
started. We also have a marketplace where
42:41
you can sell your miner and your hosting contract on to someone
42:44
else. And we now in the last, I
42:50
suppose recent year or so, we have kind of expanded more into
42:54
the managed services aspect of it as well.
42:57
So anyone who was looking to maybe have their own facility,
43:02
maybe improve their facility or build that or you know, thinking
43:06
about getting into Bitcoin mining on a larger scale, we
43:08
have some kind of bespoke offerings for them as well.
43:12
And that's kind of pretty much what what we do.
43:15
Gotcha, gotcha. And what's your role in the
43:17
company? So currently I'm the CEO.
43:21
I started life as the one of the Co founders and the CTO and kind
43:27
of back then my my job was building out our marketplace and
43:32
any of the technical stuff we needed.
43:34
And now it's kind of the day-to-day running of the
43:36
company. Amazing.
43:39
And Paul, I can't, I have to ask this question because you know,
43:43
the, the, the, let's talk about Compass's past, right?
43:46
And I think a lot of people already in the chat are, are
43:49
wondering this, right? There is some controversies, you
43:53
know, a couple years ago, the company was under different
43:56
leadership. And I guess my question to you
43:59
is, you know, what has changed today, what makes it different,
44:04
Paul? Yeah, fair question.
44:06
So I suppose, you know, back going back to 2020-2021, we were
44:13
very much an early stage startup in growth mode.
44:17
And when the kind of bull market kicked off, then we grew and we
44:22
grew pretty fast and we made a lot of mistakes along the way.
44:27
Some of them were avoidable, some of them weren't avoidable.
44:31
They happened. And like I suppose companies,
44:37
especially new startups, they need different styles of
44:41
leadership at different points in their growth.
44:45
And the old leadership was very much necessary back then.
44:50
I would never kind of take away from them the contributions that
44:54
they did, But you know, it came to a point where a new style of
44:59
kind of running the company was needed.
45:02
And it was more focused less on growth and more on kind of
45:08
customer care and identifying all the pain points that we had
45:13
seen from our customers and really kind of looking at where
45:19
things went wrong previously so that we don't repeat those
45:23
mistakes again. Gotcha, gotcha.
45:26
And what is the road map? Let let's talk about the future
45:29
what what do you guys see not only in the Bitcoin mining
45:33
industry, but also just the future of company future of
45:37
Compass the next 5 to 10 years so the.
45:42
Future of Compass is pretty much directly linked to the lessons
45:46
we have learned from the past. And you know, when we started
45:51
out we were very asset light. We worked with a lot of partner
45:55
facilities and what ended up happening was our customers,
46:00
some of them had good experiences, some of them had
46:02
bad experiences. And while some of that was on
46:06
us, it was difficult for us when we passed off things to our
46:10
partners. Nowadays we have some great
46:12
partners, but as we as we kind of grow and evolve the problems
46:18
that were inherent in that kind of partnership model, we seek to
46:23
minimize now. So our whole growth plan for the
46:26
future is aligned with vertical integration and trying to
46:31
control all levels of that stack.
46:33
And that is all kind of it, it, it all feeds into the customer,
46:39
our end customer having the kind of experience that I want them
46:43
to have and not just an OK experience or, or, or a bad
46:48
experience. So everything we're doing
46:51
growing into the future, it's all around vertical integration
46:56
and you know, being able to control the entire, the entire
47:03
kind of stack from everything from repairs to actual, you
47:07
know, being the boots on the ground in facilities so that if
47:10
customers have problems, we can address their stuff, you know,
47:14
within a few hours we can get things repaired really fast.
47:17
We have all these kind of capabilities in house now,
47:20
whereas previously we relied on external parties to do a lot of
47:24
that gotcha and and one of the things that.
47:26
I I really liked about too and and I had to do I had to do the
47:30
the, the, the ad read. But one of the things that
47:33
popped up, popped out to me, Paul, which was, and one of the
47:37
things that, you know, I, I initially got into the industry
47:41
through mining, right? I set up, you know, you guys,
47:43
all, everyone goes through this, right?
47:44
You set up the mining thing in your home and then one of the
47:48
rooms in your home gets really hot and really loud.
47:50
And then it's, it's on, hopefully it's on the other
47:52
side. But you know, eventually you,
47:55
you come to the realization of like, OK, probably it's not a
47:58
good idea to do this at my house.
48:00
I should probably do this somewhere else.
48:02
But you kind of go down this rabbit hole and one of the
48:04
things that popped up to me mining myself is the importance
48:09
of being able to sell your miners, right?
48:12
Because it's not only just about mining them.
48:14
Eventually you want to sell the miners and perhaps upgrade to
48:18
new machines. And one of the things that you
48:20
guys offer Opti, you can scroll to it, which is the go to the
48:27
you guys offer marketplace. Yeah, so the the.
48:32
The marketplace was one of the things that we really wanted to,
48:36
to to have out there. We we launched that I that was
48:39
around kind of mid to late 2021. We got the marketplace online
48:44
and we really wanted the ability because a lot of people are
48:48
thinking they're going to buy this thing, they're going to get
48:51
stuck in the three-year hosting contract.
48:52
I don't know if I like it. You know what if it doesn't work
48:56
out? So we wanted them to have the
48:59
ability if they wanted to get out.
49:02
But also, like I said, those kind of people who buy miners in
49:07
a kind of repressed bear market, what we see happen is they can
49:12
mine with those and then in a bull market they can flip those
49:15
miners on the marketplace and it's kind of win, win for them.
49:19
They get to mine and they get to sell something for significantly
49:23
more than they bought it for. Absolutely, absolutely.
49:26
I never. I never.
49:27
Forget 2017, which was the era of the S 9.
49:31
And Paul, I'm sure you, you're, you remember this era and I
49:35
never forget, I think I bought 11S9 for like $1500.
49:41
It was a lot cheaper back then. And then at the peak of the bull
49:44
market in December of 2017, I think I was able to sell it for
49:48
like $2500. Even though it was selling, it
49:51
was it was mining less Bitcoin. So yeah, that at the the
49:55
marketplace is, is is really cool.
49:57
And the other thing I want to ask you about is the the turnkey
50:02
stuff. So, you know, you get a miner up
50:05
within 48 hours. So could you walk people through
50:08
the process? Let's say they go to Compass
50:10
mining dot IO right now and they want to start mining.
50:14
What are they going to what what do?
50:16
What should they expect? Is it also tailored for someone
50:19
who's an an amateur, someone who's new to the industry or do
50:24
they need some type of expertise?
50:26
So there's no. Need for any sort of expertise,
50:28
they could go onto the website, they could create an account,
50:32
they could buy one of these turnkey miners and they give us
50:36
their pool information and within 48 hours that miner will
50:40
be mining to their pool. So there's no need for any more
50:44
expertise beyond that. The only thing I will say is a
50:48
lot of people, and I mean this may sound weird for me to say,
50:52
but a lot of people get into mining without understanding
50:56
that they are really mining. This is a real machine.
50:59
It can break facilities, sometimes have to curtail, which
51:03
means we have to turn the miners off.
51:05
There's a lot that goes into mining that people I want them
51:08
to be aware of before they do this and not feel hard done by
51:13
after the fact. Because a lot of people
51:15
sometimes they can think, oh, it's like some cloud contractor.
51:18
I bought a machine and it's, you know, 100 Tera hash is meant to
51:22
be it's, it's, you know, it's power rating.
51:26
And this, this is only a 97 Tera hash.
51:31
That's the way they come from the factory.
51:32
There is inbuilt variances. Sometimes they're higher,
51:35
sometimes they're lower. Sometimes facilities have to
51:38
curtail, sometimes a hash board or a power supply goes down.
51:42
Your miner is going to be offline for a little while while
51:44
that gets fixed. Those are kind of the realities
51:46
of of really mining. And that's why we put such an
51:50
emphasis on all of our educational contents, because we
51:54
want people to know that before they get involved in this.
51:58
And then, you know, they, they don't understand.
52:00
Well, you know, this was only online for a week and it's, and
52:03
it's, and it's, it's down what what's going on?
52:06
And it could be just that the facility has to curtail for a
52:08
few hours every day at certain peak periods in time.
52:12
But I think all of it comes down to just education and
52:15
understanding what it is that you're doing and not jumping in
52:19
too fast. Yeah.
52:21
And and it. It's I, I, I what I the
52:26
maintenance stuff is interesting and that's something that you
52:29
guys provide, is that correct? Yeah.
52:32
So we, we, we can do. Repairs in house, depending on
52:35
the type of repair can depend you know how long it takes.
52:38
If it's a fan that needs to be replaced, it can be done very
52:41
quickly. If it's a hash board that needs
52:43
to be replaced, that could take longer.
52:45
Gotcha. And how's?
52:47
The monitoring of it, right? So I'm assuming you'll be able
52:51
to see the stats, stats coming in.
52:53
That's one of my favorite things about mining, right?
52:55
You see the SAT flow coming in and you see how much you're
52:59
making, you know, on a daily basis.
53:01
That's all stuff that you'll be able to monitor as a customer,
53:04
as a user. Absolutely.
53:05
So when? When?
53:07
Your miner's configured, it's mining to your pool.
53:10
We're never taking custody of your SAT's.
53:12
They're going directly to your pool account that you signed up
53:16
for and you know that's all, all on you.
53:19
So you'll get to see them coming in as, as the pool pays out,
53:22
you'll get to see them coming into your wallet.
53:24
And at the very least you can log into your pool account and
53:27
see them accumulating there. I love that Opti do.
53:30
You have any questions for Paul? I got one question.
53:33
We've had a. Lot of minors on the last week
53:36
or so and I've been asking them the same question because I had
53:39
a lot of friends that had, you know, they, they went really
53:43
deep in the Bitcoin mining space and it was like the peak of the
53:47
bear market. And so my question for all the
53:49
miners right now is we're seeing hash price go up.
53:52
We're seeing the competitiveness in the Bitcoin space continue to
53:55
proliferate. So the question is very simple,
53:58
Paul, do you see the Bitcoin mining bull run coming soon?
54:02
Will it return? What's your thought on the bull?
54:05
The Bitcoin bull? Mining.
54:06
Run coming, so I mean. Going going off previous kind of
54:12
cycles, I would say yeah, it's it's going to return.
54:17
And you know, if you want me to make a prediction just for the
54:20
hell of it, I would say within the next what what are we now
54:24
September? I'd say late this year, early
54:27
next year, things are going to start coming back.
54:30
I completely agree I think. That's like everyone's feeling
54:33
it. Everyone got I think.
54:35
I think we we shot a little bit early just because of the ETF
54:39
news coming and you know, we've just kind of been in this
54:43
consolidation period. But yeah, if, if Bitcoin
54:46
continues to follow its prior cycles, you know, I think we
54:49
should definitely see fireworks end of, you know, Q4 this year
54:54
heading into 2025. I think 2025 is going to be an
54:56
amazing year. And I never forget.
54:58
I have a have a good friend of mine who recently was just made
55:02
CEO of bit farms of Ben Ganion. And the way that he described it
55:05
to me was mining is a leverage long.
55:08
So in the to the year of 2025, you know, that is, that's a very
55:13
good position to be if if you're a miner.
55:16
So you're, you're, you're dealing with the pain right now
55:19
for, for the fireworks down the road.
55:23
That's it. Miners.
55:24
Miners. Are they're, they're the guys
55:26
who really believe in, in, in Bitcoin and, and its future
55:29
because you know, a lot of the time they're, they can be mining
55:32
at a loss or just breaking even, but they still keep going.
55:36
And yeah, I, I, I wish I stay. I say say this to Optia all the
55:42
time because I, I pivoted, I got into the industry via mining and
55:46
then 2018 just like wrecked me and I just, you know, closed up
55:50
shop And then, you know, 2019 I got into media and then looking
55:55
back, I'm like, why didn't I just like, you know, like, why
55:58
didn't I just stay in it 2018-2019 And it would have been
56:01
such a great payoff, but it's like the boring slow.
56:06
And steady way, but like it just kind of, you know, gets there in
56:10
the end. Absolutely 100% agree.
56:14
Anyways, Paul, we are getting to the top of the show.
56:17
I want to give you an opportunity for any final
56:20
thoughts to the 1538 people that are currently lot watching live
56:25
between YouTube Rumble and X. You have any final thoughts for
56:28
our audience? Final thoughts as far as Compass
56:32
Mining goes, please go to the website.
56:34
Check us out. Please educate yourself with our
56:37
content and everyone else's on what mining is.
56:40
But aside from that, keep huddling and yeah, it's going to
56:45
be an interesting year next year, I think.
56:47
And yeah, we're all going to be able to turn around to everyone
56:50
and say, see, we were, we were right.
56:52
Like what? Like what?
56:54
Sailor, like what Sailor did on CNNBC.
56:57
Guys, you could find a link to Compass Mining in our show
57:01
notes. And we're super, super happy to
57:04
be partnering up with them. And I do want to thank the CEO,
57:07
Paul, for coming on the show today.
57:09
Opti, do you have any final words?
57:11
Do you have any final words? Opti No man good Monday.
57:14
I actually, I do have final words, Nico, but it's completely
57:17
off topic. The new transitions are lit.
57:19
I I'm like, yo, this looks great.
57:21
And then again, guys, give me a little time.
57:23
I'm working on the back end. I, I think we're going to have
57:26
some new facelifts for the stream that you're going to
57:28
really enjoy. But I I got to figure out some
57:31
logistics here. But the new transitions are
57:33
great. Yeah, and and shout outs, of
57:35
course to. The entire simply Bitcoin crew
57:37
for making this possible. You guys know who you are
57:39
anyways guys if you guys enjoyed the show, you know to do smash
57:42
the like button consider subscribing if you feel like we
57:44
provided you value share this content get the orange signal
57:48
forward want to give a shout out to our guest Paul from compass
57:51
mining. Of course, my legendary Co host
57:53
Optimus fields for joining us today.
57:55
We are simply Bitcoin live tomorrow.
57:57
We'll see you guys on the next one tomorrow.
57:59
Peace out everybody. You buy bitcoinwell.com, a
58:04
Bitcoin only platform, on a mission to enable financial
58:07
independence.