Latest / Strictly Business / The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw
Transcript
- 0:00You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
- 0:05JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.
- 0:09And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to Skalk Low, Portfolio Manager, PSG
- 0:13Wealth, Old Oak in Cape Town.
- 0:16Now, Skalk, we haven't spoken since the war.
- 0:18Yeah.
- 0:19I've lost track of time.
- 0:20It seems as though it's been going on for weeks, but we haven't spoken since then.
- 0:24Sort of a muted market reaction in many ways.
- 0:27It could have been spectacularly good.
- 0:29and bad in various asset classes.
- 0:32But it wasn't.
- 0:32It was fairly orderly.
- 0:34And I use that phrase reservedly.
- 0:38But yesterday got horrible on the JSC.
- 0:40Have you survived?
- 0:43Yeah, it's been surviving.
- 0:44I mean, you had to.
- 0:47Let's get the orange elephant out of the room.
- 0:53This was most probably one of the most anticipated wars ever.
- 0:57Yes.
- 0:58And, you know.
- 0:59reading, I'm sort of glued to my television screens for the past three
- 1:05days, like
- 1:06I think most people have been doing.
- 1:08And I see there's been a report an hour or three ago coming from the New York Times,
- 1:14which indicates that the Iranian government has already reached out to
- 1:21sources within the CIA or
- 1:23something like that, if that's true.
- 1:25Then they want to talk on a proposal to end the war.
- 1:28So.
- 1:29You're talking about we haven't spoken since the war started,
- 1:32and it seems like we're lucky that we're speaking now because a war that I, on
- 1:39Monday,
- 1:39thought was most probably not going to be one that's going to be able to end really
- 1:44soon,
- 1:45seemed like it's progressing very, very fast.
- 1:49Interesting factoid.
- 1:50Sorry, I'm going to...
- 1:52No, I hadn't heard that story that you just...
- 1:54I'm just turning my head as far as I can where I am from.
- 1:57Have a look at...
- 1:59CNN just stay there you you just you just carry on talking Scott there's my CNN
- 2:04screen
- 2:07Turkey NATO air defense intercepted Iranian missile is there so if I mean
- 2:13CNN like all the other stations are American based American centric so it
- 2:20would have got that I think so your
- 2:22source is better than CNN or doesn't exist one of the two what else did you have to
- 2:26say you mentioned the word factoid.
- 2:28No, the New York Times, one that we could just get the,
- 2:33I'm not going to read the whole article.
- 2:35It's Iran made secret outreach of the strikes, highlighting Trump's challenge.
- 2:40And apparently, if you look at the article itself,
- 2:46it seems like they want to talk, you know, how to end the war.
- 2:51What I thought, why this is progressing this quick?
- 2:55because I think to a certain extent, you know, this morning,
- 2:59I thought that President Trump's commitment to now ensure,
- 3:07and literally at a price,
- 3:09that all ships can now actually go through the strait at a cost was an interesting
- 3:16one.
- 3:16But I think he could do that because if you look at, there's a very interesting
- 3:22article that I wrote, that I listened to,
- 3:24I read this morning.
- 3:26Did you write it, read it, or listen to it?
- 3:27Let's go for the latter.
- 3:28Okay.
- 3:29Let's go for the latter.
- 3:30And this individual, I don't know if the author now, but he actually made a very,
- 3:36very interesting point.
- 3:38He said suddenly the war broke out.
- 3:39And that war broke out by the B-1 bombers,
- 3:45the US B-1 bombers.
- 3:47Those planes are something like $2.
- 3:48something billion per plane.
- 3:52And I think they mentioned that they've got 20 of those,
- 3:55and five or six of them went in there and literally with a thousand missiles.
- 4:02So we all knew the after effect.
- 4:05And then on the 1st of March, which was on Sunday, then the B-1 bomber,
- 4:11that's a very, very, like I said, very sophisticated plane.
- 4:15It goes supersonic, but it's also undetectable by radar.
- 4:19So that goes in.
- 4:21in.
- 4:22On Sunday, the B-2 bombers started to go in.
- 4:27Now, those are supersonic as well, but they are detectable by radar.
- 4:32But they're so quick, they're so extreme.
- 4:34It's the fastest plane in the world.
- 4:36They're so extremely quick that it's still difficult for these air defenses
- 4:43to be deployed quick enough.
- 4:45Interesting enough, yesterday...
- 4:48what was it yeah the the third sorry the third of of march they actually started uh
- 4:55deploying the b-52
- 4:57bombers now the b-52s were from the war from the second world war for good or post
- 5:02second world war weren't they they um they
- 5:04were around when the first nuclear uh bomb
- 5:05tests and uh deployments were around weren't they yeah you know called the sky
- 5:12fortress i don't know why i remember this but this thing is is massive it's It's a
- 5:18beautiful looking thing, I must say.
- 5:20It's so wide.
- 5:22I think it's got three engines on each wing.
- 5:24Yes, it's massive.
- 5:25You can put a basketball court inside the plane.
- 5:28It has thousands and thousands of ammunitions.
- 5:32But they fly something like 650 miles per hour.
- 5:36So you're not even, you know, let's call it a thousand.
- 5:39And it goes up to 50,000.
- 5:41But they are slow and they are 100% detectable by…
- 5:46by air defenses.
- 5:49Now, the fact that they've moved,
- 5:51the 3rd of March already moved the B-52s into Iran shows you that they've pretty
- 5:57much knocked out
- 5:59all of Iran's air defenses.
- 6:00Is this your surmise or is this what is stated in the article that you've read?
- 6:06It's stated in the article.
- 6:07It's stated in the article.
- 6:09And it makes sense.
- 6:12And also, if you look at the specific...
- 6:15I think it was the New York Times article where they actually mentioned one of the
- 6:22reasons why they wanted to reach us because they've lost
- 6:24so many Navy ships already.
- 6:27Their air defenses are really, really crippled.
- 6:31I think just somewhere along the line, they're going to realize, well, that's it.
- 6:37We cannot continue.
- 6:38But this is like taking a knife to a gunfight.
- 6:41I mean, so.
- 6:44So yesterday was a biggie.
- 6:48Let's go back to yesterday now.
- 6:50What happened?
- 6:50I think the JSC was down something like 6%, nearly 6%.
- 6:55That's the all shit index.
- 6:56I don't remember seeing a 6% for quite a while.
- 6:59I don't remember seeing a 6% actually, apart from if you go back to no, never.
- 7:04Tell us more.
- 7:05Tell us more.
- 7:06That was just massive.
- 7:08If you look at the movement in some of these BGM gold counters.
- 7:13Well, let's look at most of our resource counters.
- 7:16That was horrific.
- 7:19And I sort of had a feeling that this is going to happen.
- 7:21Because on Saturday, when the war broke out, every second,
- 7:26let's call it professional or financial guru sort of stated
- 7:34on Monday, when the market opens, we're going to see the gold price up.
- 7:39$500 per ounce.
- 7:42We're going to see the silver price surpass $100 and counting.
- 7:48They obviously weren't of the school of thought of Scout Glow that this was the
- 7:54most well-flagged war in history.
- 7:56Maybe it's just the contrarian in me, but yes, you're right.
- 8:01It was the most anticipated war in history.
- 8:05And I think a lot of, not all, but...
- 8:08most of the, I would say, precious metals move that we've seen was in anticipation
- 8:13of this.
- 8:15I mean, but because you can't say it's only the weakening of the dollar because
- 8:20Trump is
- 8:22pressing that they should cut rates,
- 8:22and that's why the gold price suddenly went from $3,000 to $5,000.
- 8:27It just can't be.
- 8:30So I don't know if we've had this conversation on the AI bubble.
- 8:38Well, we've had several conversations.
- 8:40We may have mentioned it in passing, but haven't gone in-depth on it.
- 8:44Why do you mention this?
- 8:45So people always say, and every second article I also read is, AI is a bubble.
- 8:50So I went like, what is a bubble?
- 8:52And what constitutes a bubble?
- 8:56Now, the National Bureau of Economic Research,
- 9:01they've got a very nice report on this matter, a research report.
- 9:06where they actually worked out how to quantify something as a specific asset in
- 9:13a
- 9:14bubble.
- 9:14And I'm going to save you the 76-page report.
- 9:18Please.
- 9:19And just give you the executive summary.
- 9:20It comes down to three points.
- 9:22First one is that specific investment or asset class should have
- 9:29grown by 100% over the past two years.
- 9:33Yes.
- 9:34Second point.
- 9:36It should have outperformed the broader market.
- 9:39In this case, I'm just using the MSCI All-Country World Index.
- 9:42That's as broad as you get.
- 9:43That's two yeses so far.
- 9:46Yeah, it's going to be interesting.
- 9:48And then the third one is over the previous five years, it should have grown
- 9:55by at least 50%.
- 9:57That just sort of sorts out where a specific asset class or investment has
- 10:02seen a
- 10:04correction.
- 10:06According to these people, but I think that's three yeses, isn't it?
- 10:08No, that was the interesting one.
- 10:09So I went in and I looked at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
- 10:14That's the...
- 10:15I would say the one that represent, it's called the USAI.
- 10:20Where do you find the time when there's a war on?
- 10:22But anyway, that's another story.
- 10:23I've got lots of times while the CNNs and the Bloombergs are talking at the
- 10:29background.
- 10:29But for interest sake, over the past five years, that index has grown in dollar
- 10:34terms by 66%.
- 10:36So then, no, there's the first tick, not 100%.
- 10:39It's outperformed.
- 10:40Over the same time, the All-Country World Index did 44. So.
- 10:45or actually 46%.
- 10:47So it's actually outperformed the broader market by only 18%.
- 10:52Now, yes, it's done 100 and something percent over the past five years.
- 10:57So you've got one out of three.
- 10:59But it's all been condensed into the last two years, I would imagine.
- 11:02Yes, yes.
- 11:04And then it suddenly hit me and went like, hey, I always need to go and look at my
- 11:09favorite,
- 11:11favorite asset class or investment type, namely gold.
- 11:14Let's go look at...
- 11:17You really do take a long way around, don't you?
- 11:20In English they say you really went round the houses there.
- 11:25I tell you what, next time I say to you, I said to, by the way, I said to Skulk
- 11:29before we started this,
- 11:31let's make this relatively brief, Skulk,
- 11:32because it's a lovely sunny day here and I want to go out for a walk in the late
- 11:38afternoon.
- 11:40And he said, yeah, we must do.
- 11:40And you deliberately did that, didn't you?
- 11:42So I can't go for a walk.
- 11:44Next time, just say, on to gold, Lindsay.
- 11:47So to all the listeners out there, that's exactly what Lindsay told me.
- 11:51He sort of prepped me.
- 11:52He groomed me.
- 11:53He said, please, it's a sunny day.
- 11:55And yeah, in the Netherlands, they don't really come that often in spring.
- 12:01But so the gold price, here we go.
- 12:04Over the past two years, it has grown by 192% in dollars.
- 12:09terms.
- 12:10That's just a gold.
- 12:10That's not gold miners.
- 12:12So there's the first tick.
- 12:14Over the past two years, it's outperformed the MSCI All Country World Index by 144%.
- 12:20Second tick.
- 12:22And over the past five years, it has grown by 177%.
- 12:30So, yeah, to all the listeners out there,
- 12:33if you're still asking if gold is in bubble territory,
- 12:38According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, and that, let's call it
- 12:4576-page report,
- 12:47it is formally in a bubble.
- 12:49I don't want to know about bubbles, not from you.
- 12:52I don't want to know about whatever research institute you've just quoted.
- 12:56I want to know how, I want an article next Wednesday,
- 13:00for how long do bubbles inflate?
- 13:04And you can have a bubble and you can have it.
- 13:07sitting there in your hand or whatever, and it's a bubble.
- 13:10So what?
- 13:11But how can it inflate more and become a bigger bubble?
- 13:14That's the key point.
- 13:15That is where the clever person, that's what the clever person is asking.
- 13:20No, no, no, for sure.
- 13:21So we'll have a look at it.
- 13:22But I think that the movement that we've seen yesterday was exactly that.
- 13:29It was sort of an anticipated war.
- 13:32We've seen the...
- 13:35The gold price, the silver price,
- 13:36a lot of these precious metals really reacted really upward in anticipation of
- 13:44this war.
- 13:45I was actually quite surprised looking back now that oil didn't also be sort
- 13:52of priced in this most anticipated war.
- 13:54But be that as it may, and I think yesterday's movement was sort of a case in
- 13:59point.
- 13:59Suddenly, Mr.
- 14:00Marker just realized, wait a minute.
- 14:02But, okay, this is it now.
- 14:03This is the war.
- 14:06It seems like the US and its allies, Israel and all those countries there,
- 14:13it's got a handle on this.
- 14:15What if it's done?
- 14:17What if the war is done in a week or two?
- 14:21Like the invasion of Kuwait, in other words, when Saddam Hussein was around.
- 14:25Everyone thought, well, this is a big war.
- 14:27It lasted 24 hours.
- 14:29Gold price was at much lower levels, but it had been bought up in anticipation of
- 14:34the war.
- 14:35When the war stopped, that was it.
- 14:36It's gone.
- 14:37The difference with gold this time, of course, is there are different reasons for
- 14:41gold going up.
- 14:43People didn't know about a war two years ago.
- 14:45Two months ago, yes.
- 14:46Two years ago, no, they didn't.
- 14:48So all the recent volatility, war volatility, that's just part of the game.
- 14:52It went to 5,400, I think it is, came back to very close to 5,000 yesterday.
- 14:57Now what are we doing?
- 14:58Fiddling around in between those two levels.
- 15:01But there are a lot more things than skirmishes in the Middle East,
- 15:07and I don't want to be disrespectful to the people that are suffering because of
- 15:12this war,
- 15:14but it's just a skirmish when it comes to...
- 15:16you The global financial system, if you see what I mean.
- 15:20Exactly.
- 15:21So let's say for a moment,
- 15:24I'm hopeful to all those people because there's no winners in any war ever.
- 15:30So let's say this war can be done in a shorter period of time.
- 15:37Where are we left?
- 15:38So firstly, we've seen a very interesting thing yesterday and the day before.
- 15:43What happened?
- 15:44For the first time… in many, many months.
- 15:47When things got heated in the kitchen, people didn't run to gold.
- 15:54They didn't run silver.
- 15:55If you look at the movement in Bitcoin last week, they clearly didn't run to
- 15:59Bitcoin.
- 16:00They ran back to the dollar.
- 16:02And that was, I think, one of the most interesting points that still in this,
- 16:08let's call it uncertainty.
- 16:09Dollar index went above 99, didn't it?
- 16:11And it's only this afternoon and it suddenly dipped back again.
- 16:15Correct.
- 16:16Correct.
- 16:18So let's say this war is done, and I'm hoping and I do feel that it will be done.
- 16:24Yes.
- 16:24Then where are we left?
- 16:26Well, we're still left with Trump that's made it blatantly clear.
- 16:32Because that's the one thing, one of the reasons why the dollar also attracted,
- 16:38because people suddenly realized, ha ha ha,
- 16:40there's absolutely no way Trump will put some pressure now.
- 16:43And it added.
- 16:43pressure on the Fed as well to, you need to go and cut rates,
- 16:48not while we're sitting with an oil price of $85 per barrel.
- 16:53He's not going to put pressure on the Fed to go and cut rates aggressively as it is.
- 16:59So yeah, I agree with that.
- 17:02It's not going to happen.
- 17:04But now, let's say the war is done.
- 17:06He's then going to go and say, wait a minute.
- 17:08My playbook has always been we're going to cut rates and we're going to cut rates.
- 17:12aggressive.
- 17:14And then suddenly the dollar is just going to realize, oh, wait a minute, we're going
- 17:19to have lower rates.
- 17:21If we're going to have lower rates, then the dollar should continue its weakening
- 17:26path, which naturally, again,
- 17:28will be good for the world.
- 17:30We are assuming, or you're assuming that the war is over.
- 17:31There's two schools of thought here.
- 17:33There's many, many schools of thought, but there's two schools that I'm going to
- 17:36focus on now.
- 17:38The ones that say it's all over, they're using B-52s.
- 17:41Those old heaps that should have been taken out of service 20 years ago that are
- 17:48still flying because they're workhorses
- 17:50and they do their job.
- 17:52So the war is over now.
- 17:52There's another school of thought that says the
- 17:55Iranians are just reconvening, if you like.
- 18:01They are going to announce a new supreme leader.
- 18:04That new supreme leader will sit down.
- 18:06if he can...
- 18:07He's got to keep his eye on the window at all times, though,
- 18:13because with Israeli and U.S.
- 18:15intelligence, the likelihood of him getting taken out is quite high.
- 18:19But let's say that they do have a new supreme leader with a council that
- 18:25replaced all the others,
- 18:27all the other people that were killed.
- 18:29And then he says, OK, now I'm in charge.
- 18:29We're going to do this.
- 18:30He's still got the Revolutionary Guard there.
- 18:33He may still have some missiles hidden away somewhere.
- 18:36He may still have a navy.
- 18:38And then say, right, what we've got left, let's attack.
- 18:40Let's keep on attacking Israel with the missiles.
- 18:43Let's attack American ships with missiles.
- 18:46And let's have a go at blockading the Strait of Hormuz so that the West suffers
- 18:52and oil prices go to $90 to
- 18:54$100 a barrel.
- 18:55And then that's when the Donald Trump factor comes in, Scott, because Donald
- 19:01Trump will get bored then.
- 19:03He likes to make big splashes you know he loves to say things like he said recently
- 19:07he said we're
- 19:09going to cut all ties with spain no trade with spain because the spanish wouldn't
- 19:13wouldn't let his his planes his
- 19:15b-52s refuel or take off
- 19:16uh and attack iran he there's the spanish the left-wing spanish government says no
- 19:23you can't do that you're not going
- 19:25to use us as a platform for your murderous activities so
- 19:27trump immediately blurted it out in three weeks time he won't even remember that
- 19:33There'll be trade going on between
- 19:35Spain and the United States.
- 19:37It's the same with Iran.
- 19:39If it doesn't happen quickly, and let's face it, it happened quickly.
- 19:41They killed the leader on day one.
- 19:43The first bomb killed him.
- 19:45So then he'll have to move on to something else.
- 19:47It's in his interest to get this thing over with, or in everyone's interest,
- 19:50because otherwise he'll just leave the mess behind him and then move on to
- 19:56goodness knows who knows next, North Korea.
- 19:58That's my big bet.
- 20:00He goes on about, we've got to...
- 20:01No, no, listen.
- 20:02No, listen.
- 20:03No, listen.
- 20:05This is me and I promise I'll get back in my box after this.
- 20:08Donald Trump said that the reason that the war is...
- 20:12is occurring now, their rationale behind it was because they wanted to stop
- 20:17Iran developing missiles that could hit America and hurt American citizens.
- 20:21North Korea's already got that, or is very close to getting that.
- 20:25Quietly behind the scenes and with the help of money from China and Russia
- 20:31sometimes,
- 20:33has got the money to have its nasty ambitions fulfilled.
- 20:39So Trump must surely say to himself, Okay, Greenland, I'm bored with that.
- 20:45Panama Canal, I did say that once, but I don't really care.
- 20:49Venezuela, that's already done.
- 20:50That was too quick.
- 20:51That was nice and quick.
- 20:53Colombia, I forgot about because I met with the Prime Minister, the President
- 20:59rather,
- 21:01and we got on quite well.
- 21:03So I'm not going to hit Colombia like I said I would.
- 21:05So let's have a look.
- 21:07Iran done.
- 21:09What can I have a go at next?
- 21:11No one in Europe I can go for.
- 21:13uh russia ukraine gosh that's been a bore so north korea that's how his mind works
- 21:15it's like a child
- 21:17he wants a toy one day he wants a batmobile one day oh please can i have a
- 21:21batmobile and then a day later it's in the back of the cupboard
- 21:23he wants spider-man you
- 21:24you use the word you use the word bored i i'm gonna use a different word but i'm
- 21:31gonna use his own word so i think my
- 21:33tweet of the week was by far by a country mile.
- 21:35This tweet although It was retweeted this week.
- 21:39Actually dates back to the 9th of October 2012 by a real Donald Trump.
- 21:45So this is POTUS himself.
- 21:48I'm going to read this.
- 21:50Now that Obama's poll numbers are in a tailspin,
- 21:54watch him launch a strike in Libya or Iran.
- 21:58He's desperate.
- 22:01That's his tweet of, let's call it 14 years ago, close to 14 years ago.
- 22:05So you say.
- 22:06You say, yeah, he's bored.
- 22:09I say there might be a case of a bit of desperation in it.
- 22:14I think it's a difficult one.
- 22:16I don't want to speculate on what Trump is going to do.
- 22:20I think for now, when I look at the actual facts, and the actual facts are showing us
- 22:25that,
- 22:27let's say the war is done.
- 22:28The actual facts say the Fed, remember the Fed tool, the Fed watch tool,
- 22:34the one that we usually look at.
- 22:36the probability.
- 22:37Now, you remember the last time we spoke, I told you that there was pretty much now
- 22:43no more probability.
- 22:45I think on that side, it got down to about 20% probability for a rate cut in March.
- 22:48And then I told you there's pretty much no chance of a rate cut anymore, but we're
- 22:53looking at more than 60%
- 22:55probability of a rate cut in April.
- 22:56Now, still no chance now anymore for the 18th of March, but for the 29th of April,
- 23:03it's now only a 10% probability.
- 23:05for a rate cut in April.
- 23:08And when you push it out to June, there's only about a third.
- 23:11There's about 34 odd percent probability for a rate cut in June.
- 23:18If this war ends today, I promise you those probabilities...
- 23:24Exactly, exactly.
- 23:26And that will put some pressure again on the dollar, which again,
- 23:30I think will sort of support wherever the gold and silver stabilize.
- 23:35I think it will support those precious metals again.
- 23:38But I think more importantly, there's a massive correlation with a weaker dollar
- 23:44and emerging markets.
- 23:46That's why we've seen such a nice flight to emerging markets.
- 23:48Good for South Africa, yes, but also other.
- 23:50I mean, look at the likes of South Korea.
- 23:54I mean,
- 23:55that market has been the number one market in the world in 2025.
- 24:02And this year, I think year to date, it was up.
- 24:04already something like 50%.
- 24:05I had a massive retracement yesterday, but these emerging markets are attracting a
- 24:11lot of money.
- 24:13Eight out of the top 10 countries year-to-date up to Saturday, all emerging
- 24:19markets,
- 24:21purely because on the back of a weaker dollar, that's what you should expect.
- 24:23You should expect a flight towards emerging markets.
- 24:26I still think that theme is very much intact.
- 24:33I spoke to a fund manager yesterday just to end the war talk and I said what have
- 24:40you been doing he said well we went into the war in a
- 24:42slightly defensive with a slightly defensive stance and we felt that certain
- 24:47asset classes
- 24:49were priced to perfection so
- 24:49we took a bit of profit and we are now looking at opportunities because if you
- 24:55look at a geopolitical
- 24:57chart And look at how the markets behaved, overlay the charts on the geopolitical
- 25:03events on whatever date they were.
- 25:05You know that some dips lasted longer than others, but no matter how long they
- 25:10lasted, the markets go to new high after that.
- 25:12I'm talking specifically equity markets.
- 25:13So just, I'm not going to say buy, but
- 25:19I'm saying that a pattern has formed, not over the years, but over the decades.
- 25:23Correct.
- 25:24Skulk.
- 25:25so we've sorted that out now we've sorted out the war we need to take this home if
- 25:32you still
- 25:33want to catch some race so I'm going to lead now And you are going to tell me,
- 25:39because this is the 5 o'clock shadow and it's a predominantly South African-based
- 25:46podcast, tell me about Woolies, please.
- 25:48And I don't want to know how many frozen lasagnas they sold.
- 25:49I want to know the general feeling about these numbers, please.
- 25:54I thought it was, you know, I've been tough on the company for many, many, many,
- 26:00many years.
- 26:02And mostly to do with the Australian businesses.
- 26:06and then we know David Jones is no more.
- 26:08So the only one that's still there is Country Road Group.
- 26:13And last time, that still seemed to struggle.
- 26:17This time around, with this, let's call it the unordered interim results for this
- 26:2426-week period, it did seem like Country Road's, not massive growth, but 2.3%
- 26:31growth at least showed an uptick.
- 26:36In general, it looked good.
- 26:37When I look at the total performances, turnover up
- 26:425.4%, which is good for a 26-week period.
- 26:48That's quite a few inflations plus.
- 26:53When you look at the headline earnings per share, that we always knew was going to
- 26:59the earnings per share is always going to be down.
- 27:01When you look at the headline earnings per share, that's going to be positive, 10%
- 27:03up.
- 27:05In general, just when I went through this, it looked good.
- 27:09The show still remained Woody's Food Sales.
- 27:11That site was up 7% compared to the previous 26 weeks.
- 27:16It was good year on year back in the days, 5.2% growth.
- 27:20So that's really, really good.
- 27:23The online site is still growing.
- 27:25I mean, you know, we often refer to 60-60 as the online delivery.
- 27:30But, I mean, the Woody's Dash, I mean, that has grown by 23% over this.
- 27:3526 week period so that's really good.
- 27:38And the market likes it Skull?
- 27:40Oh yes, I mean up 1.4% at one stage, it was quite a bit high,
- 27:46I looked at it I thought it was sort of 4.5% rally at one stage.
- 27:53It was, it was it was but it did retrace a little bit to the latter part of the day
- 28:00and it
- 28:00up 1.4%.
- 28:01Okay, not bad you Right, let me give you some numbers now.
- 28:04The dollar round is 16.33, got into the 16.60s yesterday.
- 28:08The euro round is 19 on the button.
- 28:11And the British pound against the round is, what is it?
- 28:14There it is.
- 28:1521.84 euro dollar, just around about the 116 to 10 level.
- 28:21I've got the gold price at 51.51, which is 64 dollars higher, one and a quarter
- 28:27percent platinum price.
- 28:29is nearly $100 higher at 2163, up 4.8%, whereas palladium has gone down by nearly
- 28:349%,
- 28:35so a complete diversion between the two major platinum group metals.
- 28:39And 1703 is the current prevailing price of palladium.
- 28:44Now let's look at the oil prices, which has been fascinating today.
- 28:47As soon as Trump said he would help vessels going through the straightforward
- 28:53moves with its own navy...
- 28:55after the threats from Iran to firebomb all these poor sailors.
- 29:01Crude oil in the United States, West Texas crude, $73.74, which is down 1.1% on its
- 29:07lows of the day.
- 29:09Brent crude oil, $80.65, down nearly 1%.
- 29:13The copper price is $5.86, was above six yesterday.
- 29:17That's per pound in New York.
- 29:19And what else have we got here?
- 29:21The Bitcoin price has been very interesting.
- 29:23It was in the 60s all of last week, went down to 62,500, 63,000, is now 72,500,
- 29:2873,000 at the moment, up 7.6% on the day.
- 29:33It likes no war, it didn't like the war.
- 29:35It's not a safe haven.
- 29:37It's just a speculative tool.
- 29:398.22 is the South African 10-year bond yield, which is 10 basis points higher
- 29:46than the US 10-year,
- 29:48having gone below for a couple of days, below 4%.
- 29:50Now 4.085%. S&P 500 futures close to their highs up 0.7% now,
- 29:556,873.
- 29:59And Skulk, what about the JSC today?
- 30:02Horrible day yesterday.
- 30:03All the diggers were the losers.
- 30:05What were the winners today?
- 30:07We'll start with the winners.
- 30:10It sort of started off way better when you look at this morning.
- 30:14But I mean, the likes of Afrimat, I think that was done.
- 30:18Wow, massive.
- 30:19And one stage, AfroMAT, I think today, recovered most of its losses, yes,
- 30:24and it gained something like 16 or 17%, but still down from the previous day, up
- 30:3110% for today.
- 30:33Northern Platinum up 8%.
- 30:34Aspen, interesting one, 5.6%, up.
- 30:36Valterra, 5.3%.
- 30:39African Rainbow Minerals, 4.8%.
- 30:42I'm just going to mention the sixth one because that's also a company that
- 30:46brought a trading statement today that's cash flow not going to go into that
- 30:52because then you definitely can have a walk but
- 30:54brought out some some positive numbers on the trading statement that helped the cash
- 30:57flow company now
- 30:59to increase by 4.5%.
- 31:01When you look at the losers, Tungela, a massive day yesterday, so maybe just a bit
- 31:07of a breather today,
- 31:09down 6%.
- 31:11Also a company that had on one stage,
- 31:12I think on one stage it was up over 150 Rand per share.
- 31:17It was, and I thought about you and I thought, has this thing tripled over the
- 31:23last two years or even less?
- 31:25Less, no, less.
- 31:27It was trading 50.
- 31:2950 Rand last year, I've never groven from it, I'm going to go into that, but I know
- 31:33one stage it was trading at 50 Rand last year,
- 31:35so yes, on one stage, way over 150 Rand, today down again 5%.
- 31:38After, initially, opening a little bit higher, but 138 Rand, 81,
- 31:44very much back to its levels prior to the war started.
- 31:49Spore, I mean, just, it had a better day, so to speak.
- 31:55But I mean, at 65.85, it's still down 3.5% again today.
- 31:59Quilter also brought out a trading statement talking about preliminary
- 32:05results.
- 32:07Not going to go into that as well.
- 32:09Market did not like it, down 3.4%.
- 32:11And yeah, and now it's a bush.
- 32:13I mean, one that you would have thought is a serious defensive stock today.
- 32:20Also some news on that side, they're down 2.6%.
- 32:24Very good.
- 32:25So, Carl, I want to talk about one thing just before we go.
- 32:27And we spoke about this stock on a couple of occasions, and I asked you to look at
- 32:34it on one occasion, and I think you did do.
- 32:36And we said to ourselves, why isn't it going up when volumes on the JSC itself
- 32:38are going up?
- 32:40I looked at the graph of JSC Limited.
- 32:41It's up 66% in the 52-week period, 66% from its low of 106.
- 32:47This is when I looked at it yesterday, not yesterday, the day before, I think.
- 32:51it.
- 32:52It had made a low of around 106, 107 in the 52-week period.
- 32:56And on the day I looked at it Monday, 176 rand per share.
- 33:04Just has taken off skunk.
- 33:06Yeah, you called that one.
- 33:08We did have a look.
- 33:09We looked at the volumes back in the day and how the volumes, and I'll read the
- 33:14volumes.
- 33:15But usually, you and I, we read the daily volumes as well.
- 33:18And we had this conversation, I think a year, year and a half ago, where we said,
- 33:24oh, that the volumes on the J's is just shocking.
- 33:26We're still trading at similar trading days that we've seen in 2016, 17 and 18.
- 33:31And then suddenly it just picked up.
- 33:32And you called it.
- 33:33You said we had to look at it.
- 33:35That definitely will have a positive effect on the share price, which it did.
- 33:39Always a nice dividend payer.
- 33:40And yeah, maybe the easy money has been made now.
- 33:43But yeah, good call on that one.
- 33:45Good call.
- 33:45Okay, let's talk about volumes now and the closing indices, if you would, Skulk.
- 33:50So let's start with the closing.
- 33:51JSC today closed at 121,114 points, just shy of 1% positive for the day.
- 33:58The top 40, however, up 1.1%. And today was driven by the resources.
- 34:04Originally up close to 3% earlier today,
- 34:08but at the end of the day up only 1.4%.
- 34:12Industrials up 1.2%, while the financials...
- 34:15were up 0.7%.
- 34:17The SA property index didn't get itself in positive territory.
- 34:20That was down 0.8%.
- 34:22When we look at the volumes for today, solid, solid trailing days.
- 34:26And just, I don't know if you've looked at this the previous few days, but what we've
- 34:32seen,
- 34:34we've had Thursday, there was over 33 billion that went through the market.
- 34:40Previous day was 29, so it's also a 30 billion day.
- 34:4551 on Friday just before the war started.
- 34:49And it just didn't stop.
- 34:50We had 37, then 46,
- 34:51and again today over 32 billion value traded over the course of the day.
- 34:57So yeah, you're 100% right.
- 34:58The JSC definitely is looking way better with these type of volumes.
- 35:02Excellent, Skull.
- 35:02Thanks so much for your time.
- 35:04Skullclaw is from PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town, and that was the 5 o'clock
- 35:08shadow.
- 35:09The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and
- 35:14various contributors.
- 35:16and do not reflect the policy, position, or opinion of any other agency,
- 35:20organization, employer,
- 35:22or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.
- 35:25Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other
- 35:32entity other than the speaker or the author.
- 35:34And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to
- 35:38change, revision,
- 35:40and rethinking at any time.
- 35:40Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.