Latest / What the Flux / Treasury Wine hits new decade-low | Labubu-craze expands into Australia | Paramount Skydance eyes Warner Bros Discovery

Transcript

Treasury Wine hits new decade-low | Labubu-craze expands into Australia | Paramount Skydance eyes Warner Bros Discovery · What the Flux

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: This is what the Flux.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: I'm Brett and I'm Justin and it's Wednesday, the fifteenth
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: of box Obar Donzey Boyt.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Virgin Australia's share prices jump more than fifteen percent since
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: it listed, but it hasn't stopped them chasing new avenues
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: for profit. Virgin is quietly announced cuts to its carry
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: on luggage weight from two bags at seven heroes combined
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: to just one bag. Supposedly, this will speed up the
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: turnaround time between the flight legs, and faster turnaround times
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: means the ability for more flights and more revenue.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Virgin really taking it up to corny, aren't they am?
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: As we roll over into the middle of the month,
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: often the time when many people get their pay slip
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: and start to think where did my money go last month? Well,
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: in the Flux app, we had the perfect solution for
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: you with the Flux Budgeting tool that tracks all of
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: your expenses and tracks your savings balance as well as
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: categorizes where your money went for the last month, so
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: you'll never have to go chasing for it again. So
• 0:51
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• 0:53
  Speaker 2: you're staying on top of your spending, download the flux
• 0:55
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• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Three thirsty stories today, juzzy boy, let's do for our
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: first Treasury Wine Estates. Gee do they get a good
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: run on this podcast? The shares have hit a decade
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: low after struggling with weak sales and even more challenges
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: in the US.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: The wine world's having a bit of a hangover, b man,
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: so tell me more so.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Treasury Winer States is one of the world's biggest wine makers,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: behind iconic labels like Penfolds, wolf Blasts and.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Wins and don't you dare forget nineteen Crimes too, the
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: wine that Snoop du double g backsyep?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: But does boy? Treasury Wine Estates has just worn that
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: they have suffered weak at China sales due to changing
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: alcohol consumption habits.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Apparently there have been fewer large scale banquets in China. Yes,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: they literally said this is part of their guidance.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: On top of that, it's US operations have been disrupted
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: by the exit of its main distributor in California, and
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: as a.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Result, TWE withdrew its profit guidance for the twenty twenty
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  Speaker 2: six financial year. Next minute, TWE shares plummeted fourteen percent,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: taking them to their lowest levels for the last ten years.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: So what is the key learning year?
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Investors dislike uncertainty more than bad news.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: You see, b Man Earning's guidance is like a company's
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: public GPS.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: A company guidance tells investors where the business expects to
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: head over the next year or two.
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  Speaker 2: And that means investors can start to value the business
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: based on its expected future performance.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: But when guidance disappears, analysts can't model future profits accurately.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: So when a company like TWE provides guidance and then
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: suddenly withdraws its guidance, it sends a pretty alarming signal.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: It says that management is not confident in its ability
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: to forecast near term performance, and.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: It almost always hurts the share price of the company
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: in the short term.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: As an example, Juzzi Boy Estate Lauder they pulled their
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: fiscal twenty twenty five guidance and after doing so, share
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: price dropped about twenty one percent.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: But the man well, with drawing guidance really is an ideal.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: It also hasn't been that uncommon this year due to Trump's.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Tariffs YEP for General motors, Mercedes, Volvo They all removed
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: their guidance earlier this year due to uncertainty about tariff.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: So Crocs, Krispy Kreme, Beyond Me, Diagio as well.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So Juzy Boy, it seems like TWA is taking the
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: share price hit now so it doesn't need to disappoint
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: investors with underwhelming results later.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: For our second story, pop Mart, the retailer responsible for
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: the Lea Boo Boo craze, has promised stor expansions in
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Australia because le Boo Boo love has boomed locally.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Pop Mark well and truly popping off in Australia. Juzzy Boy,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: what is going on here? So?
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Pop Mart is the Hong Kong listed toy company that's
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: known for selling the viral La Booboo blind boxes.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Now all around the world people have been lining up
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: to get their paws on these furry, jagged tooth gremlin toys.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they've been trending with celebs as well. We're talking
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Lisa from Black Pink, Rihanna dou A Lipa.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: So Juzi boy, I know you love these items. What
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: is a blind box?
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  Speaker 2: It's essentially an adult luck you did where you don't
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  Speaker 2: know which toy you've got until you open the.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Package, and apparently it keeps customers coming back for more
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: and more until they get the toy they want.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: And man, it's clearly work because pop March share price
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: has got up three hundred and fifty percent in the
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: past of your alone, and.
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  Speaker 1: Now reports show that Australia is becoming one of pop
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  Speaker 1: Mart's most important markets.
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  Speaker 2: It makes up ten percent of pop Mart's revenue in
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific region outside of China.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: And the team behind Labuobuo credits this rapid growth to
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Australia's higher purchasing power.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: So what is the key learning here?
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  Speaker 1: Purchasing power is the amount of goods or services a
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  Speaker 1: unit of currency can buy.
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  Speaker 2: It's the reason why one Ossie dollar is valued differently
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  Speaker 2: to one dollar in the US or one yuan in China.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: And although China is Popmart's largest market, the yuan has
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: lower purchasing power, which means pop Mart's blind boxes are
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: considered a premium product.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: That be man. In the Australian toy industry, the average
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: product costs around twenty two dollars and.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Pop Mart's blind boxes are priced in a similar range.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Between twenty and thirty dollars if you're able to get
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: them from a.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Store and Jazzi Boy. This has opened up the demographic
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: of Popmark customers.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: In China, labuoboos are largely purchased by people who have
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: disposable income to buy a random toy.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: But in Australia, PopMart also appeals to younger kids whose
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: parents might have spent that much on other toy brands anyway.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: So be man. It seems that PopMart is using the
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: OUSSI purchasing power to power up their revenue.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: For our third and final story, the newly merged Paramount
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Skydance has made a forty two billion US dollar offer
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: to acquire media behemoth Warner Brothers Discovery.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: With the little help of a friend and the oscar.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: For most dramatic corporate plot twists goes to Paramount skuidehats
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: tell me what so?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Warner Brothers Discovery is the entertainment joont behind HBO and CNN.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Warner Brothers Studios, that's.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: The studio behind you, Harry Potters. You a lot of
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: the rings, and don't forget Barbie two. Now.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: The company was formed technically in twenty twenty two after
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: the Warner Media and Discovery merger which was forty three
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: billion US dollars.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: And who's Paramount Skuidance again.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Also a recently merged company between Paramount Global and Skydance Media.
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: Now that we've got that complicated web merger sort of
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: b man, what has actually happened here?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Well, Paramount Skuydance has reportedly offered twenty US dollars per
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: share to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: And this value is Warner Brothers Discovery at around forty
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: two billion US dollars.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: With the help of private equity firm Apollo Global Management,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: who would finance the deal?
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: The man before you're too excited, Warner Brothers Discovery has
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: called the offer too lou.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Don't worry about that, jazzy boy. Paramount Skuydance says they
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: may come back with a new offer because they're desperate
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: for even more content. Scale.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: So what is the key learning here?
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: In the streaming industry, scale means basically everything.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: It's the ability to spread massive content costs across a
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: large subscriber base.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Think spreading billion dollar shows like Houses the Dragon across
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: millions and millions of users.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: The more subscribers you have, the lower your average cost
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: per viewer.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: SO mergers like the one proposed by Paramount Skydance aims
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: to combine libraries of content with audiences.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: But BMN scale doesn't always mean profit.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: In fact, Josi Woitt Warner Brothers Discovery might have a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: forty two billion US dollar offer, but it also carries
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: thirty five billion US dollars in debt.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: So b Man Well Paramount Skuydance might be dreaming of
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: a new Hollywood power couple, Warner Brothers Discovery clearly isn't
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: quite ready to tie the not yet. Yep, Fox am ever,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: get caught at the end of the month, I realize
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: you still paying for a subscription that you thought you
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: canceled months ago. So if you want to learn how
• 6:44
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• 6:46
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• 6:48
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• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening and we'll see you on Friday.