Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 180: Winter Forecast, Ice Storms, Drought and the LRC with Gary Lezak

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180: Winter Forecast, Ice Storms, Drought and the LRC with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down
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  everything that is happening in the weather right now.
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  It is an exciting time around here.
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  The weather pattern with the LRC or the Lezak recurring cycle is
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  setting up right now. And so Gary is breaking that
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  down for us. We're 10 days into that cycle
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  setting up and so he's got some thoughts on what we are seeing
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  so far. We are touching on drought
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  patterns. We're touching on some light
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  predictions that Gary has as we go into winter and just
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  everything else that kind of is starting to shape up right now
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  and how that is going to affect our weather pattern that we are
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  going to be seeing over the next entire year and how right now is
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  such a critical time for the pattern that we're going to be
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  getting for the rest of the year.
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  So without further ado, let's hop into this episode with Gary.
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  But before we do, if you could take a second to like subscribe,
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  rate and review, we would really appreciate it here at the team.
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  And without further ado, let's hear from Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Gary, good morning. How, how are you doing?
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  How's life in Colorado treating you this week?
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  I'm doing fantastic and good morning or good afternoon,
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  everybody. We do have an interesting
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  weather pattern that is developing.
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  We'll talk about that. But I'm doing fine.
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  The dog's doing fine. Sunny, the weather dog.
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  She has a a limp, limp on her left leg.
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  And I have no idea what it is. She doesn't.
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  When we go for a walk, she tends to stop limping and she walks
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  fine, so it can't be that bad. But you never know what.
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  She doesn't seem to be in any pain, but there's a limp.
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  She's 10 1/2 years old, so yeah. That stinks.
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  I know my older dog sometimes if she's like laying down for a
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  long period of time, she'll get up and she has a little bit of a
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  limp in one of her legs. And I think she just like
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  pinches a nerve or like she just has a leg that's kind of like
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  asleep or something like that. Because yeah, she's the same
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  way. Like whenever she's out on on
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  the walk, she's fine. This is probably she just sat
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  down behind me, but she's she's she's probably fine.
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  She's just getting older. Yeah, I hate that.
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  Yeah, my gosh, I hate it too. My dog turned 7 this year and
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  I'm like no I know. I know it's like I know Father
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  Time is clicking, ticking. Yes exactly.
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  I had a dinner conversation with someone once and I was like we
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  were talking about our dogs and I was like how much would you
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  pay for your dog to live as long as you lived?
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  And I was like I would pay an infinite amount of money.
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  Like there there is no price. There literally is no price
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  self. You know, like.
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  Not yeah. Old old 14 year old dog.
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  So exactly. Exactly.
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  At their prime, it's going to be hard.
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  I think about it. It's just good that Sunny is
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  going to be one of the hardest ones.
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  But I think they're all hard so. Yes, they absolutely.
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  Four more years away at least, so just hang in.
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  There Exactly, exactly. We got so much time.
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  We got so much time you. Teach us how to enjoy every day.
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  Absolutely. Well, what's going on with the
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  weather, Gary? Well, it is October.
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  Well, we're recording. This is October the 15th.
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  All right. Well, by the time you're
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  watching this or listening to it, it might be a few days
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  later. So here's what's going on.
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  I always call it October 15th magic because the LRC, the
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  weather pattern that's cycling above us sets up in October and
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  November. And by about October 5th or 6th,
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  when we might consider that a day one of the pattern that
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  we're now in, by October 15th, it's about day 10.
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  And right around October 15th, it really is now showing us what
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  the pattern is. So I call it October 15th magic
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  because a lot of people make assumptions about what the
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  pattern has been doing over the last few weeks and it's going to
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  be a drought. It's going to be this.
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  I'm like, you're jumping to conclusions based on what the
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  old pattern was, not what the new pattern is.
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  And so here it is, October 15th. We have this huge through in the
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  western part of the nation. It's going to swing out into the
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  plains and then there's going to be a chance of thunderstorms on
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  the 17th and 18th. A band of rain goes by, some
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  severe weather, and it's going to hit some areas that really
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  need the rain over parts of eastern Kansas, western
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  Missouri, and then produce a severe weather risk.
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  But the point is, the pattern is is evolving.
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  Out West in San Francisco, we have this thing called the LRC
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  Index, and that's when there's a big upper level storm storm near
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  California, like they just got hit the say, hey, there's a big
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  cold upper level low and then upper level low causes the LRC
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  Index to go real low. And the LRC Index went to -4.7
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  in San Francisco. I went to look at last year, it
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  never went that low all of last year.
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  So something very different and strong has happened near the
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  California coast that didn't happen all of last year.
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  So if these troughs and storms do develop in the Washington,
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  United States, it's going to set up the Central United States and
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  the Plains and the Corn Belt into potential ice storm setups
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  this winter, etcetera. So just something has my eye
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  that we're going to monitor that we're going to learn a lot more.
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  Our winter forecast doesn't come out till the 1st week of
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  December. So all those other winter
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  forecasts that you've seen, it's amazing how our winter forecast
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  will be about 30 pages long. These other winter forecasts are
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  one page, one page. Here's what's going to happen
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  this winter. Above average and drier, above
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  our below average temperatures and wetter.
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  What kind of winter forecast is that?
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  What does that do for you? Does that tell you anything?
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  Number one, it's probably wrong and #2 it doesn't give you the
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  day by day or week by week forecast that we have in our
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  analysis. Yes.
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  And how are they even predicting all of that?
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  It's not going to be nearly as accurate as your 30 pager, not
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  nearly as detailed, all of the things.
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  It's a very exciting time around here as the weather pattern is
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  setting up as everything is kind of getting gathered.
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  What are your initial thoughts as we've were like officially
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  kind of like a week in to the new pattern?
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  What are your just initial thoughts as you're kind of
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  building out this pattern for the next year?
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  Well, let's see where the pattern begins.
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  The pattern begins as we looked at the drought Monitor.
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  And the Drought Monitor has almost all of North Dakota, in
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  fact, all of North Dakota and all of South Dakota is not in
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  drought. Minnesota, there's one little
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  spot near northern Minnesota that's got AD one drought, a
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  weak drought and one little spot.
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  So really it's eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming, the Dakotas,
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  Minnesota, Iowa and most of Nebraska and most of Kansas that
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  is not in drought to start the season.
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  There is AD 1D to D2 drought from southwest Missouri across
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  Illinois to Ohio. So that's those areas are in
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  slight drought conditions and is growing As I always say, we'll
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  talk about this as we move into January, February and March.
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  As the growing season approaches, droughts are either
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  growing was shrinking. Last year we identified the
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  shrinking drought and it happened and our prediction for
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  the fourth year in a row for the agriculture belt was accurate.
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  So just know those are the conditions to start the season.
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  We'll track if it's growing or not right now in the 1st 10 days
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  of this year's pattern. Remember, day one is considered
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  around October 5th, from October 5th to October 14th, Texas, much
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  of Texas has had no rain or 10% of average rainfall.
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  So very, very dry over Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, stretching
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  into that drought area from Missouri into Illinois and
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  Indiana. There's one pocket where it's
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  been wet across southern Iowa and in northern sections of
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  Kansas and then it's been very wet over the desert southwest to
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  Montana and North Dakota. And that's in direct result to
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  some tropical systems got pulled up by that San Francisco storm I
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  told you about. So anyway, those are the
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  conditions we're looking at right now, Lauren.
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  It's a developing pattern. We're 10 days into it and don't
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  make assumptions yet. I'm not, I'm, I just told you
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  what's going on right now. But let's say it's a 50 day
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  cycle this year we've been through the 1st 10 days.
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  There's 40 more days for us to get through before I want to
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  make any significant conclusions.
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  And This is why the winter forecast is not going to come
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  out to the first week of December, but in November we'll
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  start looking at what those hints are.
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  Yes, absolutely. And I think it's important to
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  acknowledge the fact that like you're not putting out a winter
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  forecast until early December because you want it to be
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  accurate as well. You want it to be accurate and
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  actually is correct or as close to correct as humanly possible
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  with this, which I think is commendable as well because
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  there's so many other people that are.
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  You're already seeing all of these winter forecasts and
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  winter, what's going to happen this winter and everything like
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  that. And it's.
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  Yeah, yeah, that could happen. But how accurate do we really
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  know if that's going to be? Those other winter forecasts are
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  based entirely on sea surface temperatures, especially La Nina
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  and El Nino, the tropical ocean waters off the coast of Ecuador,
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  near the equator of South America, between South America
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  and Asia, OK, and, and the Philippines, all across that
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  zone. It's slightly cooler than
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  average right now. It's not even La Nina, but it's
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  slightly cooler than average. And so they think La Nina.
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  So they immediately just throw up a map that says, here's the
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  forecast for the next year ahead next 90 days.
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  One map of the nation with blue or red.
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  You're blue, you're colder than average.
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  You're red, you're warmer than average.
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  Boy, does that provide anything for you?
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  Let me tell you #1 it's likely wrong and #2 and it's based on
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  decent information. I mean, La Nina and El Nina are
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  important. The Arctic isolation, the North
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  Atlantic isolation, the PNA Pacific North America
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  oscillation, and others, MJO, they're all important.
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  But as we've said so many times, the biggest piece of the puzzle
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  is missing. That's the LRC, all right?
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  The LRC is the biggest piece of the puzzle.
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  All those fringe things, pieces you can put on your outline into
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  the corners of your forecast, but you're missing the biggest
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  ingredient that is revealing itself in the next few weeks.
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  And that's why we wait. It's not because I don't want to
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  be. I want to wait.
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  I want to wait until I'm right. I do want to wait until we have
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  enough information to make an accurate forecast.
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  I have an idea already. I mean, I already have an idea.
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  As I talked to, there may be the set up for ice storms, but
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  overall what does it mean for the winter?
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  What does it mean for growing season?
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  What does it mean for your planting?
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  What does it mean for the dairy farms out there and cattle
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  ranchers? And that's something I will have
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  for you here. Just a few more weeks.
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  I'm going to wait. As soon as I have an idea, I'll
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  start providing information. So what makes it a prediction
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  that we're going to have some ice storms rather than some
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  snowstorms for you, when you're looking at what's currently
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  going on and your prediction of maybe seeing some ice storms
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  this winter, why are you saying specifically ice storms rather
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  than just other types of moisture like a snowstorm?
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  Kansas and Missouri in the southern Iowa and and Nebraska
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  are more susceptible to ice storms anyway, just where
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  they're located geographically. But when I say ice storm, that
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  means it's probably a major winter storm, which means
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  there's going to be a huge snow element that Dakotas, Nebraska
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  may have a huge snowstorm while there's an ice storm also going
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  on. Just where this through is
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  setting out in the western part of the country right now.
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  It's going to repeat. The question will be, is an
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  Arctic air mass going to come down ahead of one of these?
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  Because if it does, we're going to have an ice storm.
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  So I'm anticipating there's going to be a couple times where
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  that's going to that's going to happen.
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  I just don't know when yet. Yeah, I'm not ready for it, if
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  I'm being completely honest, Gary, I I'm tired of the heat.
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  I'm enjoying the weather we're having right now, but I'm not
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  ready for an ice storm quite yet.
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  So if you can work any magic to make that prediction push off as
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  far as you possibly can into winter, that that'd be great for
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  me. I know you don't have that
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  power, but if, if you can just like nudge anyone and say a few
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  prayers or something like that, that'd be great to push it off
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  because I'm not ready for a nice storm.
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  Yeah, I'll see what I can do for you, but right now I'm not.
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  I'm not, I said. I see hints of it, but I might
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  have a different opinion here soon, so I'll see if I can take
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  it out for you. My fingers are crossed over here
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  that the opinion changes because don't get me wrong, we need
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  winter moisture, but in ice form I'm OK with skipping that.
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  Some light dustings of snow, just like we talked about a few
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  weeks ago. Like if it's going to be cold
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  and dead outside, there might as well be some pretty snow on the
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  ground. That doesn't mean there needs to
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  be ice under the snow. Exactly, I'm going to be
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  speaking at Farm Con coming up in January, so I encourage
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  everyone to come to that. That's in Kansas City first week
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  of January and last year there was a Blizzard while I was
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  there. So I'm hoping for another one of
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  those, but but I'll be there and by by then we really know the
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  pattern. So the planting growing in
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  harvest seasons will already be readied for a prediction which
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  I'm going to provide there and I'll obviously provide some of
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  that right here. So exciting, so exciting.
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  Well, anything else that we need to head on in the weather?
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  Any other highs, lows, just general things that we need to
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  touch on for the weather this week or the rest of this month?
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  Just one thing that I think is rather obvious is October 15th
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  when we're recording this, as I said, and where are the freezes?
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  You know, there hasn't been a freeze in many areas.
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  So no sign of really cold air. Here in Colorado, where I live
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  in Golden, there hasn't been a freeze yet.
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  So it's pretty pretty. It's it's not late, but it's
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  getting, it's going to be late here within two or three weeks.
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  But the jet stream's getting stronger.
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  The cold fronts are getting stronger.
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  So, but still no sign of any really cold air yet.
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  Yeah, I am ready for it to cool down a little bit because like
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  last week, it's still being in the 80s and me wearing shorts
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  outside, I was like, this is criminal, guys.
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  Like we're almost to the middle of October.
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  I would like to at least have a nice little like sweatshirt on
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  right now. I know.
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  Which I'm saying that now. It was in the 40s this morning,
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  but just not 30s. And the dogs don't care.
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  The dogs love it. Even if Sonny's limping, she
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  loves it. Amazing, amazing.
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  Well, something to definitely be keeping our eye on as we go
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  through the next few weeks, watching these freeze patterns,
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  everything else like that. Do you have any predictions or
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  just thoughts on that as we run out the podcast?
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  Just no sign of it yet. That's, you know, looking at the
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  pattern and the latest data still has another through
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  ticking into the West. But there's going to be a pretty
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  strong storm that swings across the next 10 to 15 days.
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  So next week we may be talking about that freeze spreading.
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  Wonderful, wonderful. Well, Gary, thank you for your
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  time today. As always to all of our
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  listeners out there, if you are intrigued by anything Gary was
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  talking about today, make sure you check out the show notes
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  down below. I have all of Gary's links down
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  there where he breaks down on his sub stack.
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  You've got the breakdown of the weather pattern in there in way
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  detail. You've got the Weather 2020
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  dashboard. You've got the global predictor,
• 16:29
  which is just an app that you can have on your cell phone, all
• 16:32
  of the different options that Gary has down there.
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  And hey, if you just love his personality, I've got all of the
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  social medias town there as well, so you can give him a
• 16:38
  follow there. Thank you so much for listening
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  to another podcast. We will see you all next time on
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  another episode. Have a good one y'all.