Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Uncertainty & Chaos 🚀 with Crypto Banter Group Ran Neuner

Transcript

Crypto Uncertainty & Chaos 🚀 with Crypto Banter Group Ran Neuner · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: A certainty seems to be the theme in the market today.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I'm going to face off with ran Nuoner is going
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: to be breaking down where we think the market could
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: go in twenty six. It is going to be a
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: good one, you guys, let's get started. I don't want
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: to miss one thing, and of course that is thinking
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  Speaker 1: with a little bit of juice there and start to
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: play the markets a little differently. Let's bring in rannonor
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: who comes in from Crypto Banter. You've seen him here before.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: How are you rin FORLD? How are you my friend?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Happy newear, Thank you, thank you, nice to see you.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: We're going to get into a lot of topics today.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: We're going to do a little bit of an alignment presentation.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: That is around questions today, so we can show case
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: some of these key points that are hitting in the industry.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: So we'll get into all that good stuff and take
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: off soon. I just want it in general. I've watched
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: a handful of interviews you've done here recently. Your tone
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: on the market seems to have shifted dramatically, So we'll
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: get into a lot of that. But the first area
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: that I want to touch on is the four year cycle,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: and this is one I think that crypto in general
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: has always been coveted. Where do you stand on this
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: right now? Do you think we're still in one or
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: is that pretty much dead for twenty twenty six.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: So my take here is that the four year cycle
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: was always dead, and that we followed a liquidity cycle.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: And if you look at it and you overlay the
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: liquidity charts over the harving charts, we had two cycles
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: where it just so happened that it was coincidental that
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: the business liquidity cycle as measured by the ISM or
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: the PMI, yeah, always corresponded with the harving cycle, and
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: in the cycle it didn't. And so if you look
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: at this cycle, it feels like, you know, the four
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: year cycle was was well to me, the four year
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: cycle pretty much never existed. Look there is I did tweet,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: and you did say that my tone changed about the markets.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: And there is one thing that you have to say.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: If you look at bitcoin, and I'll try and get
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: us a chart over here, but if you look at
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: bitcoin up until the tenth of up until the tenth
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: of feb when we should have been on the four
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: year cycle, I'm going to show to you there. I
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: don't know if you guys can see my screen, so
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: you can kind of see that's commodities and commodities and
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: the S and P pretty much have the same chart structure,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: but you can see them on the tenth of October
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: when the four year cycle was supposed to end, if
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: you count five hundred and thirty two days from the harving,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: that's when bitcoin disconnected. And that's why I said, look,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: there's a thirty percent chance that this four year cycle
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: thing is real, and that's why there's a thirty percent
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: chance that we should prepare for a bear market. But naturally,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: I'm a fundamentalist, and as a fundamentalist, when I look
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: at something like this, basically say, look, you know, we
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: have every single market in the world running we have
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: commodity running, we have stocks running, we have liquidity running.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: The rising tide basically lifts all ship where inflation coming
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: down as we saw earlier today we see oil coming
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: down with the President's recent actions. And I just don't
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: see a world where all others can right, all other
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: assets can run, and this one asset, which is the
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: one that's supposed to respond to liquidity the most, doesn't
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: run with the tide. And so my theory is that
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: the four Yer cycles dead. Of course, I'm not an idiot,
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: and I'm open to all probabilities, and that's why I'm
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: playing it a little bit safer than I usually play, because, Hey,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: there is a thirty percent chance in my mind that
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: the four Yer cycles intact. And if that's the case,
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: then October ten was the top, and if that's the case,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: we could go into a one year bear market like
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: we do every time.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: All right. Of course, this kind of lines up with
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Rawul Palace talked about, and that is that it's actually
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: a five year cycle, and he's still going off of
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: these business cycles that he's talked about several times. He
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: thinks that bitcoin could happen again, possibly as early as
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Q two I'm in agreement with you in terms of
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the cycle. It's itself, But do you think that Raoul
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: is right around that or what's your position?
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Look in principal roles right. And the reason why I'm
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: saying principal rules rights is because he's zoomed out to
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: the most zoomed out that you can be, basically looking
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: at macro and saying, I'm just looking at he's looking
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: at one metric. Metric is liquidity. Liquidity equals when the
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: business cycle would expand, and Bitcoin performs best when the
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: business cycle would expand. I don't know that chart, yeah,
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: but if you overlay the ISM or the PMI chart
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: against the previous Bitcoin break us, it's to the day.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: And so to me that makes much more sense, specifically
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: in an environment where the harving has become so small
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: nine in terms of the number of coins relative to
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: the market cap that I I just I can't get
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: the maths to make logical sense that that is the
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: reason why the market's going to crash or not crash.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: And I think at some point bitcoin was always going
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: to move out the harving cycle if there was one,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: and I just think we've got that point now. Then
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: the next question is going to become, well, hold on
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: a second, isn't it very coincidental that we peaked exactly
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: the same as where the harving cycle was and we're
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: one hundred days later now and we're still below one
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five thousand top And my view there
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: is that if you take bitcoin, ye're on you from
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: October twelfth to October twelfth. Now, I think that's quite
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: an important chart to look at, and quickly it's just
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: going to call it up so that your viewers can
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: get this perspective. So generally, when you ask a crypto investor,
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: how was twenty twenty five? But it was a terrible year, right, However,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: I think you're just looking at it in the wrong mindset.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: And the reason why I say that is the following.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: If you take October twenty twenty four, which is this
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: point over here, and you can see that the price
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: of bitcoin was about sixty five thousand dollars or sixty
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: four thousand dollars, and then you go all the way
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: to October twenty twenty five, that is a one hundred
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: percent bull market on bitcoin. Literally, it's one hundred percent
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: bull market on bitcoin. And remember that Markets don't respect
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: calendar days. Markets don't say, oh, well it's January, then
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I should be doing this, and it's fairbu that I
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: should be doing this. Markets run on emotions, and had
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five been a year that ran from the
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: twelfth of October twenty twenty four to twelfth of October
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, we'd go back and say that twenty
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: twenty five was a bumper year and we had one
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: hundred percent returns. Problem is that we had a brutal correction,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: and October tenth, as you and I both know, was
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: a very brutal correction. It wasn't it wasn't a soft correction.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: It was brutal. Something broken crypto, Crypto was exposed. And
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: so to me, it's a case of just unfortunately at
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the end of the calendar year of twenty twenty five,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: landing up at the wrong place on the chart. My
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: suspicion and my most probable case scenario says that if
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: we zoom out in ninety days, we'll be at high well,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: we'll be above where we were, and then we would
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: have continued the bull market. And then when you start
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: measuring it, twenty twenty six will be a bumper year
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: for crypto because we would have started at ninety thousand,
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: will be at one hundred and fifty thousand by the
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: middle of the year, and then we've got ourselves like
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: a sixty or seventy percent return, and then, oh, this
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: asset class actually isn't a bull market. But we had
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: a terrible correction which was kind of similar to the
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: correction that we had in twenty twenty one in the
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: middle of the cycle. I don't know if you remember,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: but in twenty twenty one, in the middle of the cycle,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: we had this deep correction over here and everyone thought
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: the cycle was completely over, and then we had a
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: recovery which took us to a new level, a new
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: level on the high.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very similar if you do compare back to
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty one comparison, but if you look at
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: bitcoin versus ethereum though, because I think that's one of
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the things that most of our channels, I think your
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: channel especially is looking at in terms of what indicates
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: a potential all cooin season. ETH typically has been the
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: leader in that. If the four year cycle is gone,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: as you and I both believe, how does ETH truly
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: outperform Bitcoin and can it. Do you think Eth or
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin in twenty twenty six is the top performer.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: I think if Bitcoin has a good year, eth out performs,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: and I think if Bitcoin has a bad year, Bitcoin overperforms.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: So I think it's about how quickly we can get
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: confidence back into the market. I think eth will outperform
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: if we break the all time high. Then I said
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: that eth oct performs if we if we hover around
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: this ninety thousand, or if we have a correction that
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: I think Bitcoin art performs generally. If you think, if
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: you ask me the question, if you reframe the question
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: and you say, in a bull case scenario, which one
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: oct performs from here? Eath outperformed from here.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: In my mind, Okay, I'm kind of on both sides
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: in the sense of I think Ether outperforms regardless. I
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: think in general, just what we're going to see in
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: terms of RWA in tokenization, what we're seeing in stable
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: coin adoption, eth is typically going to be the winner
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: on that. And if Cathy Wood is right that stable
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: coins are actually pulling from Bitcoin, and she recently kind
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: of waffled on that position, then of course Eth is.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: You know, I think the natural winner there going forward.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: What about let's get into the FED, because the Fed
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: is an issue right now. We're dealing with soft inflation
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: here in the US, or at least coming in flat
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: if we continue on this track, and we're also seeing
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: a slowing in job lost scenarios as well. Do you
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: think Jerome Powell being ejected out of the FED under
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: these new potential indictment issues is a good thing or
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: a bad thing for the Fed?
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Well, ultimately, I think it's a very bad thing for
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: the FED, and I think it's supposed to be a
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: very very very good thing for crypto. I mean, yeah,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: isn't crypto. Wasn't crypto exactly created for this kind of
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: situation where the government tries to control the manetary policy? Right?
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: So I think it's a very very very bad thing
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: for the FED and supposed to be a very very
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: good thing for crypto. But right, we saw that the
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: market never moved on the news yesterday, And what does
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: that mean. It means that the market's completely indifferent to
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: the new I don't care. The market's priced. They don't
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: care because they've priced the fact that Jerome Pile is
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: out as FED chair in May and then what it
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: felt like. What it feels like is in the works
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: is the one to remove him as governor before his
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: term as one of the FED governors ends in January
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight. That's what it feels like. And so
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: and so, I mean, I don't think that this car
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: If this card was played as a as a move
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: by the Trump administration to get Jerome Pile out, they
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: wouldn't have done it with I mean, pass got four
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: months left. Just leave the man in peace. He's been
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: here for four for three or four, he's been here
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: for four administrations. Just leave him in peace and let
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: him right out the last four months. There's something big
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: at play here if that's the card that it's played
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: at play. And the only thing I can think of
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: is they want him out as governor as well, right,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: And the reason for that is because he holds significant
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: influence in the FED, because he's been the four period
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: FED chair, he holds significant influence. And as a political character,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: he has the highest political rating of any political character
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: in the United States. So, you know, I think that
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: that is why they want him out. And I think
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: also you know what we know that Trump's Trump's about winning,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: and I think he wants to win against Jerome Pall
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: and I think that this is what it's come to.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. I mean you look at the shift
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: right now that we're pretty much facing if we do
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: get into this whole idea of basically law fair with
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the Fed, and of course this being in a position
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: to you what you're stating, which is him completely out.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I kind of thought he might step away anyway, you know,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: and look at a retirement option versus setting on as
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: an exibit. So there must have been some news coming
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: out I said that he was planning a state.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Think if I think if he was left alone in peace,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: there was probably a chance that he would have just left.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: But now the problem is if he leaves, then he's surrendered,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: you know. When it comes to trump. The stock markets
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: at all time highs, and I think the one risk
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: that we have for the stock market, for the for
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: bitcoin is if for stock markets crash. Nowt I want
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: to remind you of a very, very very I want
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: to remind you of a scenario because I think the
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: scenario is pretty important for your viewers to actually have
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: a look at. When we crashed from the all time
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: high of sixty nine twenty one, we crashed and about
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: and we immediately found support at the level of forty
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: to forty five thousand, which is if you look at
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: this chart, it's actually this level over here, and we
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: chopped in this area for about one hundred days. So
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: we dropped thirty five percent. We chopped in fo one
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: hundred days, and then we got the real correction, which
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: took us down to the bottom, and that took us
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: down to the sixteen k level. Right, that's not very
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: dissimilar to where we're at now. We dropped thirty five
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: percent from one to twenty five to the eighties and nineties,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: and we've been hovering here for about one hundred days.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: And now Bitcoin has to make a decision. Get into
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: this channel and resume the bull market, or finish the
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: bear market and take us back down to the two
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: hundred week moving average, which is at about it in
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: this case, at about fifty seven thousand dollars. That's where
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: we're at in bitcoin. Either we get back into this
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: channel convincingly, we put in a higher high, and we
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: break it. Now. There are two Trump related risks which
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: rarely worry me. The two Trump related risks which really
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: worry me are are number one, that the attack on
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: the FED becomes much more aggressive and vicious, because I
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: think the market brushed it off yesterday because the market
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: still doesn't believe that it's very serious. But if those
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: subpoenas manifest into criminal charges, because right now it's just subpoenas,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: right And if those subpoenas manifest into criminal charges, then
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I think the markets are going to really take this seriously.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: And if they do that, of course the stock markets
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: to collapse. And I don't see a world where the
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: stock markets collapse and bitcoin doesn't collapse because you know how,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: you know, you know what it is. We're sound money
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: until we're not, and it's risk off mode. The second thing,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: and I was very, very very shocked that Trump actually
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: posted this, but Trump posted this tweet yesterday about the tariffs,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: and what he said about the tariffs is he said
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: that if they have to if the Supreme Court rules
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: against the tariffs, he basically says that this is a
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: huge mess and the amount that they have to pay
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: back is in the trillions of dollars, and that weekends America,
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. Now, why does this worry me?
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Because if you look at the chances that the tariffs
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: are legal in the Supreme Court votes in favor of
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: Trump on partly market, it's twenty seven percent, right, So
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: there's a twenty seven percent of this thing going correctly,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: and if not, the President's basically told you that America's
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: in big trouble. What worries me there is that that's
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: the recipe for really upset in the markets. Now, we
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: could hear about the tariffs as soon as tomorrow, and
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: if the being Wednesday, we shooting this on Tuesday, we
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: could hear about the tariffs on Wednesday, and if the
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: ruling is negative, Trump has basically forewarned the market to
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: say that if the Supreme Court doesn't agree, America is
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: in trouble through and they don't know how they're going
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: to pay back this money and where they're going to
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: get the money from. It's not true that to me,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: the problem with both those risks is that both those
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: risks could shift the chart pattern from baking into the
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: channel which we broke into today to breaking down like
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: we did in twenty twenty one. And so I think
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: that this is a very very very important point for bitcoin,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: very important.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, and it gets into the next question, which
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: is what certainly matters both for crypto investors, and this
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: gets into both the clarity act of what just got
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: dropped on us yesterday or this morning, and to your point,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: the macro environment, which of course gets into tariffs. The
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: whole position here. I kind of take a little bit
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: of a different position in the sense of Trump, because
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I feel like he's still playing a character role. I
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: feel like, you know, you just can't get him out
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: of it. And so my theory is is that a
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: lot of this is narrative and rhetoric both. I think
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: with Jerome Powell, I think he'll back off of that,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: and I'm still kind of curious as to he may
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: have a backup plan that is maybe in play for tariffs.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: How they're going to pull it off, I don't know,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: but I imagine this is of course what Trump has been,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: you know, a very good uh steward of in the past.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: But as far as the most uncertain issue right now
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: in terms of demand, do you think it's going to
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: be the macro side of things. Yeah, I'm with you. Macro.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: I think the clarity act is to the largest lodge,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: to a lodge, to a big extent priced in prest In.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: What worries me about the Clarity Act is if they
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: if they don't get it passed very soon, and we're
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: going too the midterms and the Democrats, you know, the
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: Democrats take you know, the House of the Senate, and
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: you know, I think they'll take one of them. Then
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: the problem is that the problem is that then it
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: becomes really hard to get approval of this kind of act.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: So I think we need to get it through pretty quickly.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not that hopeful that the Clarity Act is going
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: to get past. Like, I'm not that hopeful that it's
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: actually gonna get past. I actually think that I think
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: that right now, there's a lot of disagreements about it.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that they can't fix it very quickly,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: but there are a lot of disagreements in the disagreements
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: are quite fundamental. I mean, one of the disagreements is
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: that are the rewards and stable coins, which is which
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: is quite fundamental. I mean, that's that's the banks defending
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: their territory, sure and so and so. Yeah, I'm wondering
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: how much but I'm wondering how much the market cares
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: about the Clarity Act. Versus the fact that it's there's
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: a favorable administration, there's a favorable sec even without Yes,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: we don't have the perfect clarity, but we we have
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: we don't have an attacking administration like we had in
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: the previous administration. We need to get this pass quickly, though,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: if we're going to get it past, because if after
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: the midterms it could get a little bit stickier if
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: the polls are correct.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about dats real quick. They make a comeback
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. Yes, no, what do you think?
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: No?
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: No, no, all right, so we're on the same page here.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: Bubble is done and broken business model? Bad and broken
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: business model. Why again, if you don't mind me just
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: calling up charts, because it just makes my explanations a
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: lot easier when you can actually see them on charts.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: But let's look at the micro Strategy share price, and
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: let's look at the when micro Strategy share price diverged
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: from the net asset value of bitcoin. And the answer
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: to that is that it did that somewhere around here
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: in April. So somewhere in April or May, this is
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: when the micro Strategy share price broke away from the
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: bitcoin share price. In other words, the micro Strategy sareprice
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: started going down and the Bitcoin share price can continue
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: to go. What actually happened there, well, in February, micro
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: Strategy stopped issuing debt. And the reason why they stopped
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: issuing debt is because debt inevitably at some point has
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: some kind of liquidation price, and they stopped issuing debt,
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: and Sailor moved to the preferred stock option versus the
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: raising of debt option. And I know why he did it,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: because debt in a long bear market with a big
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: draw down can cause you some issues. The problem is
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: the problem is that that the whole business model was
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: that you could borrow from debt holders who had an
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: expectation of a very small rate of return, and you
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: could get the upside of bitcoin and give them the
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: upside of bitcoin. And he's trying to emulate the same
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: thing in the prefs, right. The only thing is with
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: the prefs is because it's a pref's paying a coupon.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: And so in the old days when he raised money,
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: he was never paying a coupon. In fact, it was
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: a zero interest rate convertible debt instrument. And in the
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: new thing, he's literally raising money to pay from me
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: to pay you eleven percent monthly. And I mean that's
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: it's not a punzie, because a punzie is a negative thing,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: but it's like it's just it relies on the fact
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: that he can keep raising money, and if you can't,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: then he's going to have to start setting but fetther
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: dividends and that's it. And I think that that fundamentally
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: to change the that model. And so look, I'm invested
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: unfortunately in that's. They're all trading at forty fifty, sixty,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: seventy eighty percent of the net asset value in the
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: dat and so the logical trade for me is just
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: to hold them because logically, if the that model doesn't work,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: they'll have to liquidate the debts and sell their assets
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: and then I'll probably get two times, so that that
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: trade is actually a very smart trade.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Do you think I'm kind of curious what we've done
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: a couple of analysis on whether or not Tom Lee
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: could go out and do some mergers or acquisitions trying
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: to bolster up his position. Do you think that would
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: make him or Michael said, well, if you look at
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the two as far as best investor for this year,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: not maybe neither would fall into this category. But who
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: do you think wins the Michael Saylor Tom Lee debate
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: on playing this market the right way.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: In terms of returns, I think Tom Lee is going
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: to win, yeah, because I think Michael Saider is much
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: further down the line and it's very hard for him
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: to to you know, he's running out of instruments. Tom
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Lee has still got a whole deck of cards that
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: he can play. Yeah. In terms of the performance, I
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: think eth will outperform bitcoins. I think that that's that
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: that's what it is. Yeah, So I think that I
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: think that Tom Lee art performs, but not because he's
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: a smarter financial engineer. I think that Michael said is
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: a much smarter financial engineer. He's in the right time.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Retail coming back to crypto ran, you think it's
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: going to happen this year? Yes.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: No, When you say Retala came back to crypto to
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: the to the to the extent that they were in
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: here last year January, definitely, to the extent that they
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: were here in twenty twenty one, I think it will
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: take a long time. So there's two different levels. Last
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: year January was a bit of a bull market. We
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: had a little bit of retail. I'll remind you Solana
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: was trading at three hundred bucks. AI agents were running
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: it was. It was the peak of the bull market
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: last year. I think to that extent we could see
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: retail back here. I think we shouldn't discount the damage
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: that ten tended to the retail crypto market. Yeah, the
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: retail crypto market came here, come here because they want
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: high leverage and they want high returns. They were highly leveraged,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: and twenty billion dollars of retail money got destroyed. And
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know the number of traders,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: but it was in the millions of traders got destroyed.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: It's going to be very hard to get those people
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: back into crypto. So, yes, retail will come back, but
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's getting to the same levels that
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: we were in twenty twenty one.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Well, and it's very small. What's on our channel, I
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: think no. I think to the point of the type
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: of retail that we'll come back to the point that
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: you're getting at, which is is the retail traders that
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: were much more percentage wise into crypto of their bags,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: their investible liquid assets. But now what I'm finding, and
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: this happens a lot with our own channel, is that
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: we're finding traditional investors who are coming in, but their
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: positions are much smaller in terms of their precision position
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: of their overall back. They're still heavy in the stocks,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: heavy in the commodities, heavy in the gold, silver, you
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: name it. It's a completely different makeup for sure.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: So, Paul, I've been following your channel, and your channel's exploded,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: and you know, we were obviously tracking what you guys
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: are doing because we think you guys doing such a
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: fantastic job. And I think one of the things that
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: you need to understand is that you appeal to slightly
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: more mature investor that's a United States based and much
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: wealthier than the traditional crypto investors. So the traditional twenty
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: three crypto investor was a retail investor, a global retail
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: investor trying to make their millions in crypto discovering this
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: asset class we're now getting, as you say, real investors
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: moving in here. They hold a gold portfolio, they hold
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: a crypto portfolio, they hold a real estate portfolio, and
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: they're just dipping their toes into crypto. But rest assured
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: that these are the guys with the most money. And
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: these are the investors that you want watching your channel
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: or that you want in here, because they're bringing in
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: real money and they're not coming here to plan the
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: casino right now. Up until now, the guys that have
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: come here have come here to plan the casino. At
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: some point we have to break away from being the
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: casino to becoming an investable asset class. And that's I
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: think the fundamental mergent, the fundamental change that's going on,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: and I think it was started or spearheaded by the
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: United States, and it happens. It just happens that people
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: like you, who are very credible, produce amazing content and
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: appeal to a largely US centric market. I think you
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: guys are in the perfect center of that ven diagram.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Well here's the thing, though, and this is something that
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: we do. I hold a seminar here in South Florida,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: and this is the question I'm asking. It's all mostly
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: high networth individuals, a lot of business owners, and it's
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: all about the allocation percentage. Right now, it's very low.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: You know, of these people that you're talking about, people
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: who are wealth, you know, so that can only mean
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: up from here. I would assume if we can get
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: this market off high center, I think for sure. Do
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: you think we lose this investor to trad FI, to
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the site because their expectation isn't the same. You know,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: they're not expecting a three X, a five X, or
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: a ten X. They're looking at if they won X,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: they have won the lottery. What do you think?
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Well, I would agree with you up until last year.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: So let me just break down a few things that
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: The first thing is you keep referring to it as
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: the institutional investor, the trade FI Investorp, Paul. What's driving
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the cycle is the ETFs. And the ETFs are being
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: bought by the They're not being bought by the big funds. Yes,
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: of course the ETFs are being bought by the big funds,
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: but they're being bought by sophisticated investors that are reaching
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: out to their broker or going into their four h
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: one case or whatever else and buying the ETFs because
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: they're available. And when I earn buy the ETFs, they
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: buy a micro strategy because that's a levied bet on bitcoin.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: So have no doubt that those are the people actually
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: drive in the cycle. I want to just I want
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: to break down a thesis for you, and I wonder
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: if you'll agree with me on this thesis. When I
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: look at the markets, for I look at the markets
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: that are running, and the markets that are running are
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: technology and commodities. Commodities are having the time of their lives,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: and technology is having the time of his life. Technology
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: is having the time of his life because of this
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: thing called the AI and AI effectively, so AI is
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: driving the returns on Wall Street. You'll agree with me there.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: And AI is also powering the commodity supercycle because all
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, people are realizing that all these chips
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: need need copper, gold, silver, whatever, whatever the chip need.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: What is crypto? Crypto is a technology. Crypto is a
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: commodity because the eth asset is the commodity that powers
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: the Eth network. The Solana asset is the Solana is
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: the power. The Bitcoin asset is the store of value.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: It's the ultimate commodity, and it's also the commodity that
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: powers the Bitcoin network. So crypto is technology and it
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: is a commodity. And both technology and commodity markets at
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: all time. And I say, on the back of that,
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: how can we not be in a bull market and
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: That's why my conclusion is that we have to get
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: a bull market this year.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: The real question is that a super cycle. Do we
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: see both of these asset classes winning. Do you think
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: gold continues its run and its dominance over bitcoin this year?
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: By my prediction which I met on January, bitcoin will
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: I perform gold and silver on a two year period
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: from one one, twenty four to twelve thirty one, twenty
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: twenty six. I think that there's going to be the
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: biggest up trade of all time, and I think that
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: that catchup trade puts puts Bitcoin way above gold and
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: silver by the end of this year.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you and I are both in the right
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: camp on that, because I'm in I feel like gold
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: is going to roll over at any time. We're gonna
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: see liquidity start to move into these other assets. Now, granted,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: could something happen on the tech side that could spur
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: you know, crazy innovation or the other thing is you
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: get into these commodity pushes, and if we see something
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: on a global macro level where you know, a lot
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: of these rare earth metals become a big deal, maybe
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: we get some push on that. What chart are you
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: showing to me there, Silver.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: So this is the chart of previous breakhouts of a gold, silver, copper, bitcoin.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at sixteen and twenty twenty to two bitcoin
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: blue markets, and ultimately what you can see is that
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin only started running when gold topped, silver tupped, then
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: bitcoin and copper started running. And if you look at
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: the same chart of twenty twenty one gold tops, silver
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: tops and then copper and bitcoin actually start the real run, right,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: that's what the charts are showing us. I mean, it's
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: like it's pretty uncanny out what's happening now. If you've
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: been following the markets right now, Silver's pretty much in
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: the midst of a blow off top, Gold is running,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: same thing, and the one that just started running is copper.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: So the youngest, which is copper, that one's just started running.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: Ye again, I can't tell you what will happened, But
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: if history repeats, and there's a small chance that it does,
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: and we get to a situation where we look like that,
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: then it tells me that the bitcoin bull market could
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: be quite quite here quite soon. I think the days
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: of fifty x and thirty x are gone. But I
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: think that as you mentioned earlier and probably correctly so,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: a two X on bitcoin is not that's two hundred
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: and fifty thousand dollars. That's if you get a three x,
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: it's a it's tur hundred seventy thousand dollars. It's not impossible.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: In fact, it's probably probable. Right.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: I want to hit you with a couple of fast
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: hits here just for fun. At the end, better buy
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. XRP or Pango pengu Okay, you're
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: gonna go Pengo. You know I've got to go x RP.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: I gotta just go right now, Trump or or Liberty
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: Finance in terms, what's worse right now for the market
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: in general?
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: What's the worst of the market, trump Coin? I mean,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: both are bad, but trump coin is all right.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: So you and I are in the same place there, Okay.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Last last up is uh, which sex wins? Centralized exchange wins?
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Robin Hood or coin based next year or this year.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: I'm heavily invested into both. Yep. You know. The difference
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: is Robinhood is much more retail focused and Coinbase is
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: much more strong and institutionals. I'm gonna put my money
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: behind Coinbase because I think that this is going to
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: be an institutional driven cycle. Yeah, that's it. I'm heavily
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: invested in both.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Hey, Ran, it's always fun chopping it up with you.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Thanks so much for coming in today.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Thank you so much,