Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 153 : September Arrivals

Transcript

Ep. 153 : September Arrivals · Cards & Categories

• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Hello and welcome everybody to episode 153 of Cards and Categories.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I am Mike Coulard from Baseball Prospectus, joined per usual
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: by my very good friend Jeremy Brewer from Razzball. How
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: are you doing tonight, bud? It is quite the heat
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: wave we're going through in Illinois right now.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we just hit summer of September or
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: something like that because it has been a fantastic summer
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: for the weather perspective. And it is like 95 and
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: humidity all over us here in the Midwest. But that's okay,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: which means it's September baseball. I'm going to call it
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: rosters not really expanded anymore, but still some of the
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: fun times with random call-ups, playoff races, things are still exciting.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: So I'll take the heat because I still got baseball.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. We are going to talk a little bit
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: about some September roster expansion call-ups, and we're just going
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: to do kind of a news and notes catch-up pod
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: because we've been off for two weeks. We, you know,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: had plenty that happened in between. Obviously, we crossed that
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: September 1st threshold as well, where rosters went all the
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: way up to 28, so it's not quite as crazy
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: as back when it was 40-man rosters, which admittedly was
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: kind of fun because it it created just an entirely
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: different game where like you could have bullpens that went
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: forever and stayed fresh. You could work in some really
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: funky lineups to stream against or really strange call-ups in
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: terms of starting pitchers to be able to stack against.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So it has even things out, I think both in
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: real baseball, but also the fantasy side too, because it,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: it would get a little bananas during September and trying
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to also my, my least favorite part was when you
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: would have like a guy who is good, but on
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a crummy team, like James would, would be kind of
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: in this sort of realm where they just don't play
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: them more than three at bats per game down the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: stretch because they had the expanded roster. At least now
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: you should be getting full playing time out of anybody
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: that 28 men is not a huge expansion. And honestly,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: most of the teams used it to call up or, or,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: reactivate injured dudes that had been out for a few,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: few weeks. So the list of call-ups that we have
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: is pretty limited, but I mean, is there anything you're
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: thinking about during September call-ups that might be impacting any
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: of your fantasy strategy?
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the, the, it's more of the warning.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Like you said, it used to be like really weird strategy.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: I feel like now the only thing is you have
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: to just be a little bit more focused on the
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: injury side of things because I think Dalton rushing is
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: a good example. He just got activated, but he's not
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: going to play much. He's got activated to be a
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: pinch hitter because he's got the UCL issue. And so
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: they're not planning for him to catch, do all these
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: other things. And so you might see him active on
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: your roster and go, hey, I can plug him in. No,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: you cannot. He's just in pinch hitting duties. And so
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: I think you're going to have guys that are hurt,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: but they're useful for a playoff type team. And from
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: a pinch hitting role or, or something like that, you
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: just have to be a little bit more aware of
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: what that looks like. And on the flip side, teams
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: that are out of it, they're going to be sending
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: their guys the IL, like for just to get them
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: off and not risk anything further. And so I think
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: you just have to know where the team's at in
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: the race and assess like, is this injury real or not?
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: And should I be adjusting my roster as a result?
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: So I don't think there's a whole lot else there
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: until you get into the later September. And at that point,
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: you just have to start being really careful with the
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: pitching selections and making sure people are actually getting their starts.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: They're not getting shuffled around. Like I think you have
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: to check your, your lineup like three times a day
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: at the end of the month, just because everybody's trying
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: to make, make their adjustments at that point. So that said,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: if you're, At the end of the month, try to
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: make all those, probably a roto league, because most of
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: the head-to-heads are going to be done by then. If
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: you're at the end of the month making those roto
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: moves and you're still in it, trying to squeeze every
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: last ounce out of your pitchers and your lineup, kudos
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: to you, because that means you're still going for the title.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly. The other thing I was thinking about is,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: especially if maybe you're in weekly leagues, keep that in
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: mind with some of the injuries and stuff where you
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: might not need a utility man or a catcher or
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: extra piece to put on your bench, but it might
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: behoove you, especially, you know, if you're not sure about
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: a guy going into like the wraparound, you know, coming
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: off of a weekend series, going into a Monday series,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: you do see a lot of like really sudden IL
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: placements because of some of the stuff you're talking about.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: You know, if a guy is on a team that
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: is not going anywhere and has a nagging knee and
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: they just want to get him to a cleanup surgery quicker,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: they might shut them down and send them to the IL.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind that you're going to
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: go through a few more bumps, I think, throughout September.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: But if you're using your roster in reserve spots, just smartly,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: like in making sure that you've got coverage across all
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: of your different spots, especially in a weekly league, like, yeah,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I think you'll be able to survive that. It's certainly
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: nothing like we used to see. So you should be
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: able to keep it relatively steady because the other component
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: too is like, you used to just see giant swings
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: in the roto points sometimes from the, this factor that
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: we're talking about, about the 40 mans, but then also,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: you know, you have people's attention fading out from baseball
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: and going well into football is, I mean, we had
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: a fancy.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: Football drafting as we kicked off.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly. So there's going to be lots of opportunities,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I think, to be able to find extra points, but
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: also like keep aware of that, that like you've, you're
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: going to be able to, find spots where you could
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: also fall down yourself if you're not paying attention to
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: your own roster okay well with that let's dive into
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: some of these news and notes we've got uh you
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: know some transactions we've got some injuries and then we'll
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: get into those bigger september call-ups but let's focus on
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: i guess this is technically a transaction i mean a
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: small transaction yes i asked you about these a lot
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: in terms of changes of ownership changes of gms changes
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: of coaches that might impact us, especially on the fantasy side.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: And I usually really struggle to find one that really
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: piques your interest and changes in your outlooks for any players.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: But I think I found one that's definitely going to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: do that. As we had news over the past couple
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: of days that Artie Moreno is selling the Angels for
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: $ 4 billion to Stan Kroenke. Yes, that's Stan Kroenke that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: owns Arsenal and the Nuggets and the Rams and is
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: quite the... I mean... he's got one of the funnier
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: stories of the way that he made his money. I
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: don't know if you're aware, but his background is that
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: he married into the Walton family that owns Walmart. And
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: then he started buying up the lots that Walmarts are
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: built upon and leasing it to Walmart. So pretty, not
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: a full Nepo baby, but pretty, pretty Nepo baby E
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: from Stan Cranky. But if anything shows from his track record,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: The Nuggets have been turned around. The Rams have been
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: turned around. Arsenal just won a Premier League title. That
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Stan Kroenke does care a lot about sports and cares
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: about making sure that his teams win, which is not
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: what we could say about Artie Marino. Artie Marino, I think,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: really ran this franchise into the ground. Didn't take care
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: of the building. Didn't take care of his stars. Lucked
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: into many years of Mike Trout and Otani. And we've
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: even gotten weird Angel stories that have broken all week
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: in terms of... Otani went back to the angels apparently
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: with the offer the Dodgers gave him. And Artie Marino said, no,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: that's just like a monumental fumble right there. Cause, uh,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Otani for that contract is an absolute steal. And yeah.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: So I think you can see where cranky is probably
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: going to invest much better into the angels than we've
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: seen out of Artie Marino, not to mention because of
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Artie Marino's meddling and direct meddling. Like he certainly made
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: some roster moves and, put his thumb on the scale
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: where he forced GMs to do moves that he wanted
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: to sell tickets. And it didn't always pan out as
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: well as like the compounded on top of it, because
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: then when former GM Perry Manasian needed to try to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: chase wins and get Mike Trout into the playoffs late
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: in his tenure, they started just promoting everybody immediately through
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: that system. So we're going to see a lot of
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: changes from the angels. I think we're going to see
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: a much more normalized organization there out of that. colorado
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: rockies danger zone uh and we've seen other teams that
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: have gotten out that the white socks i think have
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: recently done that where certainly they have the same owner
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: but chris gets has turned around the inside of that
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: organization better uh you have mosaic right now in at
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: the angels but we'll see where stan cranky goes in
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: terms of who he wants to instill in the gm
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: president of baseball operations job but yeah is this finally
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: one where you're like you know what I think this
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: might change the outlook of Angels in the future.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it actually is. I mean, as much
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: as I might have a personal bias against it, being
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: a former St. Louis Rams fan, that he took the
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Rams away from St. Louis out to LA, you can't
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: deny that there's a track record and you can't deny
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: that he has driven some success with his other ventures.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: And the thing I actually really like here is he
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: does have all those other ventures. And so whereas Moreno
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: was in the weeds in everything, that can't be where
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Cranky's going to be. He can't do that. He has
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: to put the right people in, the right framework, and say, go.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Is this going to be immediate? Absolutely not. There is
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: work to do, but I think it does give me
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: more of a positive outlook, especially for the young players
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: coming up to the Angel. the minor league kind of
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: players like a Tyler Bremner or somebody like that, where
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: I have much more, especially in a dynasty type format,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: willingness to kind of buck the trend with the Angels. Historically,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: I've almost just written off almost all Angels players just
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: because that development system was so poor, the They continued
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: to fill that team with just random veterans. They didn't
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: have a clear strategy. I think we're going to see
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: over the next few years kind of a clearinghouse of leadership,
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: of coaches, of investment, probably international market. A number of
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: things are going to change, and then it's going to
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: start producing. And so those younger... Guys are just getting
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: the system that have the talent. I think you're going
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: to have a much different development trajectory than the players
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: that have been there before them. So I do think
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: it's interesting. I do think it makes an impact. The
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: money's there. It's not about money. It's not about the
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: fact that they can bring in different players. I think
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: it's just truly about the environment that he's going to
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: bring in and create for the team. So I think
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: I've seen a lot of Angels fans out there just
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: rejoicing over this move. I'm not sure if they're rejoicing
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: for what's incoming or what's outgoing. Maybe it's a combination
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: of both. But I do think brighter days are ahead
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: for the Angels, which will make my analysis much, much
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: harder in the future than just taking them and just
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: writing them off for everything.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that is very, very true, where you do actually
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: have to consider them and re-update your priors, but I
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: think it is also easier to move that bar from
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: terrible to just maybe closer to the rest of the
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: pack than it is any other where. It's true, it's true.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: If anything, you just kind of take the extra dings
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: off of Angel's players possibly going forward. I'm really excited,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: I think, for the pitching side, because we've already seen
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: this season where I mean, Mike Maddox is, I'm not
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: exactly like the biggest fan of his in terms of
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: like the way that he approaches pitching, but certainly has
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: been able to find paths forward with different players. And
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: this year, you know, helped Jose Soriano unlock something extra
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: with the forcing fastball that he was featuring for a
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: long time. I think the same thing with Walbert Urena.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: And it doesn't take much to be able to move
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: that needle forward. I think the angels have had a
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: lot of arm talent in that system. And I think
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: it's really encouraging to see the change at the ownership
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: level to be able to, and still maybe some people
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: that can bring the angels up to speed on the
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: pitching development side, where I think there's just a lot
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: of basics where the angels have probably fallen behind where
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: you've already even seen that in reports where like Troy
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Percival was like trying to get their pitchers to use
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: less tech and stuff like that. And it's like, That's
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: the total wrong direction of this. So I think you're
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: going to see a market improvement in the pitching quickly. Especially,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I think Cranky could turn this around pretty quick. The
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: AL West is garbage.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: It's a great team in a great location. It's not
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: going to be hard to draw players to Orange County
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: to play. And especially it already sounds like he's lining
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: up to get a new stadium that I think this
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: is going to be a hot place for players to sign.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: And that also gives me faith in like some of
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: the bullpen moves that we've talked about over the years
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: that have really fallen apart that even just bolsters the
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: possibility of Angel starting pitchers more. So I think that's
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: probably my biggest takeaway is Angels pitching big up for
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Dynasty Keeper Leagues going forward.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Yep, I can buy that.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's get on to, we did have one
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: other transaction that has broken recently, and this one, it's
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: a nifty little fun, almost challenge wave from the New
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: York Mets. They put Luis Robert Jr. on waivers, which
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: the Reds also did this with Eugenio Suarez, and I'm
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: sure there's been other teams that have been doing this,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: but Luis Robert was claimed by the Orioles, so He
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: is going to be eligible for their postseason roster, which
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're right back in the thick of the
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: wildcard right on 500. And they certainly needed a center fielder,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: even though Colton Couser had a great grab against the
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Rockies to walk them off this week. Luis Robert Jr.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: is a big upgrade for Colton Couser. So keep that
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: in mind for Orioles pitchers going forward. But I think
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: this is intriguing because Luis Robert Jr. certainly has been
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: another rough year marred by injury again. a herniated disc
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: in his back that kept him out for about three months.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: It's been good, though, since the beginning of August, where
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: it looks like pretty normal Luis Robert Jr., I would say,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: where he has been slashing 267, 321, 520 since August 1st.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: And the big one there is the 520, because it
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: has come with six homers in his 84 plate appearances.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Has not stolen any bases, but I'm not actually counting
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: on that, given the... back injury that he had and
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: everything else that he's got going on. But the power
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: is legit. The play skills are still rough from Luis
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Robert Jr., but the bat speed's good and the power
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: has stuck. So what do you think about Luis Robert Jr.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: joining the Orioles, going from somebody that was off your
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: radar onto maybe somebody you might be adding to some rosters?
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not terribly intrigued, but I think he's one
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: of those, if you're in a spot where you need
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: somebody some extra power like I do think there's going
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: to be a healthy get back into a playoff race
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: kind of pick me up here I think they're going
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: to give plug them straight into the lineup I don't
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: see any reason why they wouldn't if if they weren't
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: they weren't going to do that they wouldn't invest the
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: money and take in taking the fact they're going to
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: have to pay a buyout on this one as well.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: So I'm pretty sure that they're going to be playing him.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: And there's not going to be many guys out there
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: that have the opportunity that could go off and pull
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: 10 homers across September. And that would not be a
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: shock for a guy like Luis Robert. So I think
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: you're going to look at this from a batting average
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: perspective and go, yeah, let's hope for 230, 240. I
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: know he's been hitting better than that the last month.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: But that's not, you're plugging and playing here for power
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: and counting stats. That's what you're doing. And I think
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: that he has a legitimate shot to make an impact there.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: And so I would be kind of watching if I
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: have like a fourth, fifth outfielder where I need to
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: make a move from a category perspective, this is going
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: to be a pretty clear target.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Yep. I think I'm there with you. So I think
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: certainly in shallow leagues, he might've been hanging around on
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: some waiver wires. So can be added there and, obviously
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: you're past the trade deadline, but I think it is
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: also something where it's like, yeah, if there's any hint
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: of any sort of soft tissue injury, you can cut
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: bait immediately and not worry about it.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Okay.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Well, let's get into some of those injuries because we've
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: got some soft tissue and hard tissues to get through.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Let's start with the soft stuff first. Wilson Contreras going
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: down with a hamstring strain and it's been a crazy
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: good year. I think an underrated year for Wilson Contreras,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: especially given where he was drafted during the draft season,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: that like he was mostly a corner infield CI pick
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: for most people and now has become, I mean, one
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: of the really best and most dependable first baseman out
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: there that we've been able to have for fantasy. It
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: has been 26 homers, 79 RBI in 125 games with
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: a 274, 384, 516 slug, which is his highest slug
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: since 2019 as a 27-year-old with the Cubs. A little
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: bit of a resurgence, certainly a little bit of a
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: boost from the Green Monster and Fenway there. It doesn't
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: seem like it's going to be super serious. So it
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: does seem like it's going to be more like that
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: grade one slug. kind of realm where he should be
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: back in the roughly 10 days. Cause especially when he
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: suffered the injury, it didn't sound like there was a
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: lot of like concern that like, maybe they even thought
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: he could get his way through it, but the Red
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Sox want to get Contreras rested up for the playoffs.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: So what have you seen here in Contreras? Has this
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: profile brought him back up to where he's going to
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: be turning 35 next May and Somebody that you think
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: this is something you can set for a couple more years?
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Or is this the, hey, like, cool that he did this,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: but I'm out. The age is just too big for me.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I do actually think this is something
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: really intriguing because what's different for Contreras is the fact
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: that he is playing first base full time and he's
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: not catching. Um, and that's the big difference is that
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: he's got a different position that over the last few years,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: he's had to kind of learn and get used to,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: and now he doesn't have the wear and tear on
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: his body. Throughout the whole season, he's able to really
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: focus on the hitting. Don't get me wrong. Fielding in
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: first base is important, but it's just not the same
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: physical drain. And for basically two straight years now, he's
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: continued to produce. There's not like big luck metrics under
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: the covers here that are questioning things. It's just that
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: he's getting the volume, the opportunities, and he's staying healthy
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: on the field at all times. And that's a big
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: thing for him. This is a guy that's never played
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: more than 140 games in a season. And now, you know,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: with this injury, he's probably he might not make it
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: this year as well. But he's legitimately got 30 home
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: or 100 RBI upside hitting for like a 272 to
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: 80 average. Now, that might be a little generous on
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: the average side of things, but I think that's what
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: it is. And first base is not what it used
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: to be. And so there's a lot of value here.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: And I think people are going to underestimate him from
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: like the veteran tax side of things. And he's going
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: to be a lot cheaper and available than people think.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Fantastic corner infield. but like I feel him as a
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: definite first base starter going forward like yeah it's not
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: going to blow you away it's not going to be
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: something that you're overly excited about, but he is going
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: to just give you the numbers and he's not going
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: to hurt you anywhere across the board. He's even pitching
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: like five steals a year. So I really like Contreras here.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: I think the best thing could be this happened to
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: him is that people have gave up on him being
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: really that, that full-time catcher. And now, you know, he's,
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: he's going to be, has that first base eligibility, but
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: that means he's just staying healthy and not getting the
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: wear and tear. So I think this adds a few
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: years to really his window here and, with really a
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: good Red Sox team that he's on.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm right there with you. There's a
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: lot of factors that are pointing positively for Wilson Contreras.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: It'll also be a contract year if you're into that
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: at all, although it is a club option for 2028,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: so I'm guessing that gets picked up. Because, yeah, everything,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: when you're looking at the batted ball and everything, he
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: hasn't really aged terribly. I think part of this is
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: it's like, He probably has from his peak powers, but
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: his peak powers were muted by the catching and the
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: physical wear and tear of it. So his 27-year-old almost
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: looks like his 35-year-old with the position change. So yeah,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: I think you're looking at a guy who's probably low
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: 20s homers and 80-80 on the counting stats with a
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: 270-ish average. But that's the floor. It's all floor with
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit of upside down.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: And there's not a better ballpark for him to be in.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: He is an absolute green monster utilization tool. That is
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: the profile. Green monster monster. Green monster monster just doesn't
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: ring off the tongue as well as utilization tool, which
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: doesn't either. But that's who he is. He just knows just...
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: pull the ball, put it up there and either bank
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: it off the right, the green monster or send it over.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: And I think he's just realized that that's, that's going
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: to be successful. And as long as he's in Boston,
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I think there's a huge up error here. And I
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: think for the next, probably to your point, two years,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: I think feel pretty good about his 35 and 36
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: year old season. Beyond that, I think you can start questioning,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: but I got a good two years here on Wilson
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Contreras I'm comfortable with.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: I think I'm there with you.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Next injury we have is JJ Weatherholt from the Cardinals here,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: and he is dealing with right wrist tendonitis. So we
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: just recently went through a little bit of this with
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Colton Emerson, but it did seem like Colton Emerson. was
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: battling something more serious for longer, and this was maybe just.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: Like, bad performance.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that too. I mean, you're also looking at, like,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: this is easily the most J.J. Weatherholt has ever played
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: baseball in his life. You know, you're looking at a
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: total of 586 plate appearances over 130 games. So, you know,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: missed a small handful of games here and there, but
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: pretty much played the entire season and put himself right
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: in the running for the Rookie of the Year in
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: the National League with 17 homers. 14 stolen bases and
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: a 242, 343, 370 slash line. So that was a
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: 104 WRC plus, but four and a half fangrass war.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: You can't really ask much more from the 23 year
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: old JJ Weatherholt, who also signed a massive extension during
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: the season too. So going to be cemented as the
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Cardinals second baseman for quite some time, probably through the
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: end of that contract in 2034. We actually haven't talked
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: too much about him, partly because he's like, he's kind
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: of a steady Eddie second baseman where like, I think
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: this is who he is, but like, this is great.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Like if you're going to get like 15 ish dollars
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: of value for JJ Weatherholt, that's fantastic. It's a little
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: bit like contrarious where the floor is pretty high. I
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: don't know if the ceiling goes a ton higher, but
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: you know, like I said, he's only 23. So do
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: you think there is more in the tank for Weatherholt
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: in terms of maybe more batting average or more power
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: in the future?
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: I actually do. I think, you know, this is a
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: guy that is just, you know, 23 years old. He'll
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: be 20. Well, he'd be 24 in like a week.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: But to your point, he's learning major league pitching for
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: the first time. He didn't run as much as we expect.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: But I think that's going to be kind of learned
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: and just getting used to the game. And he's not
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: looked really overmatched, but he's still adjusting to the full
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: grind of Major League Baseball. And he did not play
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: much Minor League Baseball. I mean, we're talking a little
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: over 100 games Minor League Baseball. He's basically played more
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: Major League Baseball than he has Minor League Baseball now
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: in his career. And so I think that there's still
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: quite a learning curve for the next few years for him.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: And so I'm not going to be surprised if we
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: have a season here where he knocks 30 out of
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: the park and he hits 290, steals 15 or 20 bases. Like,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: I think that's upside. Do I think he's like a
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: perennial number or first rounder? No, but I think he's
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: a perennial, like two to four rounder type of guy
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: because he has such an amazing floor. And if he
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: just gets a little luck somewhere in this profile, I mean,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: this year his baby of his 266, like that's not
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: what he's done in the minor leagues. It was, three 35, uh,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: in last year. And, you know, he, he's, he's not
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: a blazing guy, but he, he can definitely move. He
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: has not barreled the ball up as well as what
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: he did in the minor leagues. And so again, there's
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: an adjustment period that's going to, going to happen. His
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: home run for fly ball rate is about half what
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: it was in the minor leagues. Like there was an
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: adjustment period here, but if he was just doing some
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: of the things that he did in his, in like
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: the first year of the minors, just figuring things out, uh,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: I don't think there's any reason to say he can't
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: do some of those same things in the majors. And
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you're looking at those home runs
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: being in the mid to upper 20s. You're looking at
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: the steals being 20. You're looking at that batting average
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: being 280. Like, you know, the RBIs might be an
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: issue for him just because of the lineup placement. But, hey,
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: I really like this profile long term.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Okay. Yeah, yeah. I think that's all very fair. So
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: I think, yeah, I think maybe we're a little bit.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: separated on future value. Cause I think if I had
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: to compare it, I think you're maybe saying he actually
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit of like an Ian Kinsler upside. Yeah.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: I think it's a good comp for me. Yeah.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: I think mine is more Marcus Simeon where it's a
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: lot more like set it and forget it for 650
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: plate appearances. Uh, that's, I think that's where weather will
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: be a little bit more of an accumulator, but, uh, yeah,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: I can totally see the, the Kinsler scenario. It's just that, uh, the,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: For me, it's got to be a little more oomph
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: in the bat, I think, but that's certainly something he
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: can also train in the offseason. So yeah, I think
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: either way, though, you're looking at a pretty positive trajectory
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: for Weatherholt. Okay, next injury we have. This one actually
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: happened a little bit after what we last recorded, so
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit less fresh, but I think still
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: very impactful, especially for those who were relying on him
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: all season. Andy Pahas of the Los Angeles Dodgers going
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: down with a fractured left hand. And they're trying to
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: do some like expeditions on the healing. It sounds like
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: that he had like a screw put into it. Honestly,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think he comes back for the regular season
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: that like, I think this is all in service of
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: getting Pahas ready for a playoff run. Just because like,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know how they're going to be able to
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: rush him along and want to keep him healthy ish
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: enough to, to be able to get regular season at-bats
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: and then still get ready for a month-long playoff run.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: So I think that for fantasy, probably looking at the
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: end of Pajas' season here. But what a season it was.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: 21 homers, 12 stolen bases in 128 games, 550 plate appearances, 272, 338,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: 458 slash line. that's almost a mirror image of a
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: slash line from last year, which is kind of freaky,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit better on the WRC plus because the
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: offensive environment is down, but he improved his walk rate.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: He reduced his K rate and has reduced his K
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: rate now for three straight years. He is only 25
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: years old, turns 26 in December because you might have
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: kind of lost track of how old he was because
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers signed him as an amateur out of Cuba
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: in 2018, so way back when he was really young.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: He's been kicking around the system for a while. You
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: can tell I'm pretty positive about him because also, can
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: you guess right now, it's actually on the Fangraphs Player
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Rater because the Raswell Player Rater is a little glitched
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: out right now. It's not showing hitters, but where is
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: he on all outfielders on the Fangraphs Player Rater in
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: terms of value this year, Andy Pajes?
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: He's got to be teens right he's got to be
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: like low teens 12 dang 13.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Right behind as everybody expected at number 12 jake bowers
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: and number 11 jake mccarthy.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: Okay well i did not consider consider those in my
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: assessment so.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah my preseason by jake mccarthy there we go baby
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: um yep but i this has been a great season
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: for pahis mostly that like he's shown that last year
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: in 2025 when he put up 27 homers 14 stolen
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: bases wasn't a fluke because he just repeated it so
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: i mean is that what you're setting his expectation at
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: next year is mid-20s homers teens stolen bases with like
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: 80 runs 80 rbi and honestly the fact that he's
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: hit two straight years astounds me i don't know if
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: i would give him 270 but maybe you should.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Right yeah i mean like so when he first burst
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: on the scene i was a doubter i was really
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: a doubter strikeouts were too high you know you saw
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit more uh home run for fly ball
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: luck than we, you'd expect what you saw in the minors.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: You know, I was expecting a little more fly balls. Um,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: but like every little thing has just gotten better. The
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: strikeouts have improved. The walks has improved. Like he's just
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: become more and more mature. He's such a strong fielder, uh,
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: such a good runner. Like every little piece around this
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: profile is exciting because the lineup he's in, the way
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: he feels, the way he runs just keeps him in
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: the lineup. And so he also gets that volume boost
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: from all of those things. But to your point, like
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: his expected batting average is 272. That's what he's hitting.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: You know, is he ever going to be a guy
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: that hits like 30, 35 home runs? I don't think so.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: But is he the guy that's going to be like
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: a 2015 bat with a decent average and like absolutely
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: going to score a ton of runs and knock him in? Like, yeah,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: I think like Pahez could be undervalued actually going into
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: next year because it's kind of like Weatherholt to a degree.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I think Weatherholt has another gear. I actually would take
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Weatherholt over Pahez. long-term, but I think Pajas has a really,
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: really solid floor, and of all the Dodgers prospects that
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: have come up, I don't see anybody unseating him anytime soon.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't either, and I think that is a
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: really good point that you made, that the big thing
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: that I think Pajas has done in my mind is
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: that he's brought that floor way up, especially with the
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: cutting at the strikeouts and the approach at the plate
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: when you're watching him, he's pretty in command of the
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: strike zone and the at-bat, where When he first came up,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: he did not look that way. And so I think
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: the playoff run that he's been on the past few
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: years have really helped mature him as a player. And yeah,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: he looks like a pretty solid second outfielder, I think,
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: for fantasy. I don't know if I make... You could
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: probably make him your first and make do if you're
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: picking well, but he posts and he posts well. So
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to be... It'll be intriguing to
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: see how far I think he can rise up draft-wise
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: boards for next year. Okay. Next injury we have is
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: a sprained thumb for Xavier Edwards, infielder from the Miami Marlins,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: mostly probably being used at second base out there. And
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: this is one where I think he might make it
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: back because a little bit like the contrarious injury I
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: was talking about, all of the news on this made
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: it sound like it was honestly like on the 50-50,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: whether or not Xavier Edwards was going to go on
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the IL to begin the week. And like we were
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: kind of talking about with September expansion, there's no reason
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: to push it when you're a team out of the race.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: And Xavier Edwards, it's been a, it's been a interesting year. Let's,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: I think we'll open it with that because it has
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: been good in a few categories, 282 average, 20 stolen bases,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: but only six homers, 59 runs, 51 RBI, and just
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: like not very much oomph in that bat. The other
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: problem too is like, If you're going to do this,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: you've got to steal 40 bags from Xavier Edwards. And
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: it doesn't look like he's going to be interested in
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: that going forward. It just isn't a part of his
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: game where I don't know why he doesn't have an
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: automatic go signal all the time, but certainly there's something
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: that the Marlins would rather keep him a little bit
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: more muted on the bases than maybe we were expecting
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: out of this guy with honestly, the speed is not
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: as high as I would thought considering the He was
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: known as Mr. Slapdick Prospect. And on all the MLB show,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: the show games, he was always like a 99 speed
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: when he's coming through as a prospect. But you can
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: tell I'm pretty mixed on Luisa Rice.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: That's a Freudian flip on this podcast.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's where I was going. I think this is
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: probably new Luisa Rice for us, but we're like, certainly
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: the player is going to like him because it likes
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: the batting average. but I think the problem is when
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: you're playing in competitive leagues, you're getting outstripped on the runs,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: stolen bases and runs RBI and home runs too much.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: If you're not swiping Buku bags, like you've got to
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: swipe way more bags than this for it to work.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Like this, this is the like Chandler system, Simpson wannabe profile. Like,
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: you know, yeah, you want him to have a little power.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: You want him to be like, but he's, doesn't have
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: much power yeah a few more than Simpson which is
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: not saying much um but you're not getting the runs
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: you're not getting the RBIs the average is decent but
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: like the steals aren't enough to overcome all that and
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: so you know I I sometimes like to kind of
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: qualify guys and just combine their steals in the home
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: runs and say like what are you getting me right
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: and you've got to be really to be a useful
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: player assuming you have solid counting stats you've got to
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: be in that 35 to 40 combined home runs and steals.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: Like that's kind of really where you want to be for,
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: to be a notable investment. Um, but he's dragging you
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: down and those are the categories and it really is
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: going to hurt you. And so, um, I, I have
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: to basically be out. And at the end of the day,
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: he's also not that efficient stealing anymore. So like I
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: could see to your point, like the green light not
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: being there and this could just continue to drop off.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: And he's more of a, I want to say glove
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: only guy, but like he's definitely not a glove guy.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: And so he's just more of like a plate patience guy.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know. That's a weird profile. So I'm generally
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: out on Edwards. I just don't see the logical fit
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: in teams outside of like a bench kind of utility
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: guy that maybe you can plug in here or there
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: just because you might have. an opportunity, but like he's
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: just second base eligible too. So like even that doesn't work.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: So I'm trying to, I'm aggressive with straws. I just
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: don't find the fit.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I agree. The other kind of risk
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: here is that honestly, he's kind of a second division player,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: like that it's not a guy who is going to
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: be starting in a regular on a playoff squad. So
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: as the Marlins get a little bit better, you do
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: also have to worry about whether or not he just
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: morphs into a bench player overnight, like a utility sort
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: of almost like the least sprint he folk type where
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: it's like, uh, that, you know, there's just not enough
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: standout skills. And I mean, they don't have a huge
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: swath of talent coming through up at the upper minors
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: in the infield, but I think in a couple of years,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: they might get to that point, especially if they can
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: develop some of the pieces they have. So something to
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: keep in mind, I think for Xavier Edwards is long-term
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: future and dynasty keeper leagues, but, I don't think it's
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: going to be somebody I'm touching in 2027 drafts just
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: because of everything we talked about that. Like it just,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: the cost is never going to quite align with what
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: the player reader might be telling you on him. Yeah.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: Well, I would agree.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Okay. Next injury we have is Roki Sasaki pitcher for
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Dodgers hitting the IL with a blister
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: issue might've been caused trying to get his little tiny
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: hand out of his big old giant glove. I don't,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: have you been watching him pitch with the giant glove?
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: No, I've seen a few here and there, but I've
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: not watched enough. I've seen more of the photos than
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: the videos.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: It looks like, is it 87 Fleer or scored? Mickey
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: Hatcher with the giant glove on the front of it
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: for the twins. That's what it looks like when Sasaki's
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: on the mound. So it's kind of entertaining, but it's worked. So,
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if he's ever going to
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: go away from it because really he started kicking off
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: the big glove in like late July, like post all-star break.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: And the reason that he went to the big glove
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: is with the smaller glove, it wasn't able to cover
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: all the grips when he was on the mound and
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: kind of cover up the deception of what grips he
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: was using. So the big gloves allow, allows him to
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: do that and hide it better from the pit from
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: the hitter. So since the all-star break, I mean, Rookie Sasaki,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: this is probably about the best you're going to see
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: out of him. A 305 ERA with 8-7 K-9 over
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: 38 and a third innings. Only picked up two wins,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: but also had some pretty outstanding performances. One of them,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, the last one was four runs over three
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: and a third at Atlanta when he was battling the blisters.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: So that's in the mix. So you can tell that
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: the run before that was lower sub three ERA and
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: included trips to Arizona and Colorado. And he also went
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: to New York, both New York's and held Milwaukee and
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: check at home. So I do think that we're seeing
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit more of like that ceiling from Rokey Sasaki.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: And we've seen a lot more of it this year.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: The walk rate has been palatable. And that's, I think
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: if he can keep it under the 10%, which he's
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: done since the all-star break and he's done all season,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: you're looking at a pretty useful, maybe like more of
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: a three for fantasy, because I don't know if the
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: strikeouts will be ever elite where it's this, it's a
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: little bit Edward Cabrarian for me, but like, I believe
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: in the talent more than I do for Everett Cabrera.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: So where are you at on Sasaki?
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're pretty much there. For me, what's
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: really intriguing is the fact that he's actually gone deeper
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: into games and I kind of expected that they would
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: let him go. He's not getting to the seventh that often,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: but he's getting to the sixth. And I think they're
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: kind of building him up for a guy that, I mean,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: he's still just 24 years old. And so I think
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: there's a lot that he can continue to improve and
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: learn in this league. But he's, you know, as long
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: as he can keep the walks under control, which I
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: think is really going to be the question for him,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: the strikeouts I think are going to be enough that
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: they'll be the kind of k single cape or any
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: type of guy it just comes down to whether the
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: walks can can be held within check i think that's
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: going to be the big thing for him uh long
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: term but i do think that he's going to be
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: a solid guy i always struggle with that dodgers reputation
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: because it feels like their goal is to have like
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: 10 good starters um so i think that he's going
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: to be a little bit of a risk there. Um,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: but I've seen enough growth this year that I'm, I'm
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: willing to gamble. I might not put them as a three.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: You might put them more of that, like that four
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: with an upside type of thing. But I see a
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: lot of the pitchers that went this year in that
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: kind of mid round kind of range that we talked
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: about with the Miserowskis and the Kamschlitlers and even the
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Gavin Williams and guys like that were like, we're like, yeah, there's,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: there's potential here. And they just took off. Like, I
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: feel like Sasaki could be that, next year for the Dodgers.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: So I think that there's some really good upside here
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: and he's a pretty good gamble overall.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I think that's all very fair that I
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: think that there's going to be, I think more in
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: this profile. And I think this season where the actual
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: performance has like, you know, not discouraged him along the way,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: that's going to be a huge boost for Sasaki going forward. So,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: but it's also going to be somebody where, the tax
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: is going to be so crazy in drafts in that,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: like in dynasty keeper situations, if you've got them, you're
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: probably holding him, but you're might be able to capitalize on,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: on just like price inflation and, and moving on from
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: a pitcher that if you can swap them out, get
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: a decent hitter back. I think I would, because I
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: don't know if he's got number one stuff ever in
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: that arm for me, but it's, there's going to be
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: a couple of stretches where borderlines that I think in
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: his career.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do agree. I think, he's the kind of
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: guy that could probably pull like an amazing month type
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: of thing um but then he could also kind of
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: regress to a degree so i again i like him
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: but i'm not gonna argue with you if you want
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: to flip him for like some a sure thing like
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: i don't think he's a sure thing for sure.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah i mean you want to talk about a guy
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: who's also kind of in that vein of like he
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: can put it up for a while and then has
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: faded back we're talking emerson hancock of the seattle mariners
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: where i mean I've been looking under the hood. He
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: hasn't changed really since the beginning of the year, but
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: the results have been much worse since the All-Star break
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: with a. 487 FIP. That's a. 122 FIP minus, and
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: you're looking at a K-BB that's degraded on him to 14.2%,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: as opposed to before the All-Star break, those were at a.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: 365 FIP and a 17.7% K-BB. So the surrounding... portions
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: of the Emerson Hancock picture haven't really changed. Like I said,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: he is also going on the aisle with the adductor strain, right?
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Adductor strain, which is why we're talking about him. But
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I do wonder a little bit of like, that's what's barking.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: It's been barking for a little bit. The one change
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: that I can see is for some reason, he stopped
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: throwing a slider as much since the all-star break, which
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: then also makes, gives me concern for, I wonder if
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: there's something else maybe going wrong in the kinetic chain
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: for Emerson Hancock here, because I, that slider is his
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: bread and butter. Like he needs to be throwing it
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: actually more than the 15% that he usually does that. Uh,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: if I were his pitching coach, I'd be like, dude,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: you're spamming the, the ever living crap out of that
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: slider where, um, I, I dug into Noah Cameron the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: other weekend. They tried this with him too, in Kansas
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: city where last year they're like, they realized the slider
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: was working and he went on a hot run, came
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: back this year and tried to throw more fastballs and
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: sliders and then switched it back to the slider more.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: And that's why Cameron's been better. So It's an easy
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: switch for Hancock, but the problem is if they were
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: doing it consciously when they know it was his best pitch,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: was there something else barking with the elbow or the
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: shoulder or the forearm that was pushing him away from
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: that slider? So he is 27, which feels insane because
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been around for too long. But this is
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: a guy who has been up and down, up and
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: down and came out of college. So. What are you
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: doing with Hancock going forward? Because we've seen so many
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: different vacillating versions of him over the past few years.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think for Hancock, I'm kind of
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: sitting mostly on the sidelines unless I see a change
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: in the fastball. If you look under the covers for
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: the fastball, there's a pretty distinct change basically after he
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: got into May. And so we had a good March, April,
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: and then a little, I'd say, luck carried into May.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: But the spin and the movement changed dramatically. I mean,
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: we went from spin rates of like 24, 25, even 25,
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: 50 on that fastball. And it's dropped down to the 22, 23.
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: The vertical movements changed by about an inch, inch and
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: a half. The horizontal has done a similar thing. His
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: slider hasn't changed much. None of the other pitches have.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: But if you can't play off that fastball... then people
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: can sit on that thing and it's not going to move.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: It's not going to fool. So then you can't set
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: up the slider. And so I think that's the thing
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: to me is like, I don't know what it was
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: that he was doing and it proves that he can
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: do it. So I think I'm a little intrigued by that,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: but he's the kind of guy that I want to
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: see go to that off season pitching factory and kind
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: of rework this and get back to that guy. Cause
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: I think if he can get back to that guy,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: he's got a lot of upside. I just also think I'm,
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: it's not just me that can see this. And you
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: would think that the Mariners, have known this and this
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: is now like, you know, basically three months, almost four
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: months now where he's not rediscovered what that was, it
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: was making that fastball work. So that's gives me a
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: little bit of pause. So I'm, I'm more washing with Hancock.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: I think there's some potential there, but unless that fastball
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: gets back to where it was at the beginning of
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: the season, I think I have to be out.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The other thing I just noticed too is, I mean,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I think we discussed it a little bit when we
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: were covering Hancock in the beginning of the season, in
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: terms of what was the success is that he drastically
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: changed his arm angle to where it used to be
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: at 18%. Now it's been at 18 degrees, not percent
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: 18 degrees. And now it's been an 11 this year
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: where I wonder if that's a factor too, where like,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: I'm actually like writing it right, right now to like
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: dive into maybe for an off season article of like,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: do guys that like make drastic changes in their arm
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: angles year over year, maybe wear down more or can't
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: sustain the success because like the reason I have to
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: think that he was using the previous arm angles, just
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: that was his natural motion. And the Mariners were like, Hey,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: actually your stuff plays up from this other arm angle.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Let's see if you can sit there. And there's just
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: a wear and tear, I think mentally, physically, and athletically
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: to sit in a spot where like you've been pitching
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: for 26 years, one way, you flip it in the
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: off season and you come back with a different approach,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: it might just kind of be something that's difficult to sustain.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: So any credence to that or am I off in
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: left field?
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: No, I mean, I'm actually looking at the arm angle
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: throughout the, through the game log here and his arm angle,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: I'm going back to the fastball, everything else, the arm
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: angles basically come down throughout the season, like throughout the season.
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: And it was, which is kind of funny because it's
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: the lowest arm angle he's ever had. But, uh, I mean,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: he's also had the best season he's ever had. Uh,
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: but he was, his arm angle was, you know, like
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: from a fastball perspective in that early season, in that 13,
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: 14 degree, um, even the slider was in more of
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: that 10, 11 and the fastballs now more like in
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: a seven, eight, like he's basically like a side sidearm guy.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Now he's basically dropping all the way down, which to me, uh,
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: makes sense. If the spin is not doing the same thing,
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: if it's the, the other movement, the arm angle was,
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: was a factor there. And so I wonder if he's
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: dropping down and getting more on the slider, getting the
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: more value out of it, but from a tunneling perspective,
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: because I think that's the one thing you have to
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: remember with, uh, pitching anymore. Like if you're not tunneling and,
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: and look at his profile early in the season, he was,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: was doing a pretty good job outside of, um, uh,
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: maybe a pitcher too.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this giant curveball that he throws out of his
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: upper slot still.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you see that thing coming a mile away.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think it's a show-me pitch, you know?
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it is. But I think early in
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: the season, that slider, that fastball, those all come out
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: of the same arm angle, and it seems like it's
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: deviated and the fastball's actually dropped down, which has now
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: become flatter, less spin, and the sliders are still at
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: a higher arm angle. And so I wonder if he's
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: actually tipping it.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I'm that, or the other thing I'm thinking too,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: is like, if you're dropping the arm angle on your fastball,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: dropping arm angles, I mean, usually they're not this low
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: and you're dropping it further, but usually you're up high,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: you know, in the thirties and forties and it starts dropping.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: When that happens, you're talking, there's an injury. Um, so
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a factor too, that, but
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: like that could also add into, I think a lot
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: of what we're talking about, but that also gives you
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: something to look for. You know, if, if Cancock comes
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: back down the stretch, um, rediscovers the ability to sit
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: in that same angle, you might be looking at somebody
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: where you could get a little bit more of first
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: half Emerson Hancock going forward. If there's not a physical
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: issue that's been holding him back, you know? Yep. Look
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: at us sleuthing live on the pod. I love it. Okay.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: The next player we're going to talk about, I probably
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: should have put this a little higher on the list.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: He's a little more important than Emerson Hancock, Byron Buxton.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: It's a, it's official. We did talk, a couple of
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: weeks ago. That's why, like, I think I put them
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: lower is that we've already talked about the Byron Buxton
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: experience a little bit, but it does look like this
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: hip injury is keeping him out for the rest of
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: the season. At this point, he's likely going to have
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: to get off season surgery on this thing. And he
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: is not a spring chicken. So this is a situation
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: where you're talking about a guy that's going to be
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: 33 in the off season. Certainly it was a great,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: great season. And especially where you drafted him, you've got
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: plenty of value out of them over the 93 games,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: 25 homers. 254 average, 65 runs, 46 RBI, but it
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: wasn't quite as messianic as 2025. You're adding another year.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: You're adding an offseason hip surgery recovery. I think I'm
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: still out on Buxton going forward. I know we talked
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit with the initial injury that maybe you
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: can figure out a way to Frankenstein an outfielder together
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: with the draft position, but when you're laying in a
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: surgery like this, especially to a part of your core
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: that twists and rotates when you're swinging, I'm out.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I, well, first of all, I was waiting for
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: you to say kinetic chains. That's my favorite. When you,
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: when you, when you pull that out, but, um, it, I, I,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: I agree. Like, I, I think the draft price is
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: going to be too high. I, this is one of
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: those weird ones where I think, uh, what we talked
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: about the intro definitely can come into play of like,
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: we've hit, if your team's out of it, you're not
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: playing as paying as much attention to fantasy baseball. You
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: move over to fantasy football. Like you just look at
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: it as like, well, Buxton had, in his terms, almost
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: a full season. The numbers were great. Team fell off.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: He missed a little time. There's still some meat on
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: the bone here. I think you could almost dismiss it.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: You could talk yourself into this. And I just think
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: the draft price is going to be too high because
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, this is a guy
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: that just can't play much more than 100 games. That's
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: what it is. Again, those 100 games are really, really valuable.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: But I think you're going to be paying a price
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: that's probably a good three, four rounds earlier than what
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: it's going to be. We'll see in the spring what
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: it is. But again, to your point, a hip injury,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: I'm a little concerned what that does to his power
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: long-term and even the speed. You know, he stole 24
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: bases last year, but the last time, and this is
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: a guy we always think is a speedster, right? But
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: the last time he actually stole more than 10 was 2019. Um,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: and so it's, it's been a while. So I think we're, we're,
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: we're talking about a guy that hits for a mid
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: 200s batting average, 250, uh, might hit 20 homers, steal seven,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: eight bases, uh, and you hope for a hundred games.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: That's probably not where you invest your draft capital.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: No, no, not at all. And like, yeah, maybe you
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: can craft something together to be able to make up
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: for it, but it's going to be really difficult.
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: And like, yeah, The floor is zero.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: Like that's the other component here that like the floor
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: is zero and we're going to have to spend the
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: draft capital to be able to take him home. That
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: is a long way from where you took him to
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: zero that you can't just be making those cuts when
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: you know you're walking in with that risk. You know
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: what I mean? It's another thing when it happens, injuries
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: crop up. But when you have the record, the risk
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: record behind it, like Buxton, like No, thanks. That is
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: just a huge risk pill that you can't be swallowing
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: in a draft. OK, next injury we have is Willie
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Adamas is looking like he's probably done for the season
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: with the left UCL sprain. I think we've seen plenty
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: of players kind of play through something like this, where
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: especially if you're batting, they've been able to figure out
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: a way to stay healthy enough at the plate where
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Bryce Harper has done it. Otani has done it. The
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: thing that makes this different is it's his offhand. Actually,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: it's his left arm or not hand, but yeah, left
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: arm with his left elbow. So, but with the Giants
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: in dire straits, I think they're going to be shutting
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: down Willie Adamas, probably going the surgical route, letting him
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: heal up probably earlier because still like, I think he's
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: their shortstop for another couple of years and then they
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: need to keep him healthy enough to be able to
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: do that. They also can't really move him to third
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: because of Matt Chapman. So it's going to be fascinating
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: how the Giants navigate these next few years with some
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: of the veterans that they've got that are injured. Last year,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: even though it was a struggle for Gadamas out the gate,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: he got to his numbers by the end of the season.
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: You know, got to his 30 homers, got to his
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: double digit steals. Certainly the batting average wasn't there, but
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: it wasn't out of the range of Willie Adamas to
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: where like you were totally sunk by Willie Adamas is
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: batting average last year. This year might've been a little
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: bit of a different story. Although, I mean, maybe he
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: was a hot September away from getting to his numbers again,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: 21 homers, five stolen bases and 121 games, a two
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: 30 average, pretty much in line with what he did
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: last year to 25. What are you making of Willie
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Adamas going forward? Cause this is a situation where the,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: Under the hood numbers, batted ball qualities were pretty consistent
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: for 45 years. This year, it took a step back. Certainly,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: it's his age 30 season. But when you kind of
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: are like, hey, he was also maybe playing with a
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: dogged left UCL, a bad front elbow the entire season.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: You can kind of see where maybe he can bounce
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: back to what he was doing previously. Or is this
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: a situation where you've got a guy who is on
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: the wrong side of 30 and the aging curve is
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: not going to be graceful to him? Where are you
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: coming down on Adamas going forward?
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: Well, first of all, happy birthday, Willie Adamas. It is
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: your birthday today on September 2nd. So we have to
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: acknowledge that before I go and denigrate on the other side,
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: which is I think we have to be out on
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: Willie Adamas here. I honestly am really struggling with his
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: actual stat line relative to like the underlying metrics. You know,
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: if you don't go out to baseball sabbat and just
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: hit the little play button next to like the percentile
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: profile for like the last three years, it's just like
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: kind of red. Not really so red. We're all blue.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: It's really dropping down. The thing he has going for
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: him is he hits the ball almost the exact launch
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: angle that you need for home runs. And so he's
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: getting literally the most out of all the carry. But
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: even his home runs, they are just sneaking out. They're
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: not really making the noise that you want to have.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: I always love the StatCast descriptions of home runs. you know,
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: of the 21, you know, this year, like he has
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: a majority of them are what they consider doubters. Um,
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: like it's just not, they're not, they're not clear in
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: the fence. And so for playing in a lineup, that's
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: not incredibly strong. His runs and RBIs are going to
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: be a little bit down. That ballpark is not going
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: to play. I think the power is going to struggle
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: to get to 20, uh, homers. I think he's going
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: to probably be a two 20 bat in general. And
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: I think he's just wearing down faster, uh, than a
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: lot of folks. And he, I mean, he's this is
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: a guy that has played a lot of games. He
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: he's always been in the field. So yeah, playing through injuries,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: things like that will hold you back. I just don't
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: see a profile here that gives me excited that I
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: want to add them to my team. He's the kind
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: of guy that I'm picking up mid season off the
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: waiver wire to fill a need because I got, I
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: have one, not a guy I'm going to invest in
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: because I just continue to see the power drop off the,
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: the overall batting average drop off. He's going to end
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: up lower in the lineup and the run production is
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: going to drop. So, um, Valuable, everyday player in a
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: real-world sense, but I think the overall counting stats for
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: fantasy baseball just aren't.
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: Going to be there. Yep, I think I totally agree
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: with you there. Okay, let's talk another shortstop who is
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: out for the rest of the season and is undergoing
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: surgery on his left shoulder, Jacob Wilson of the Athletics.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: And also, like, wow, what a just, like, hellscape of
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: fallen players on the aisle now for the Athletics. Shea
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: Langeleer's Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Joshua Corotta-Garner, which,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, not a big name, but certainly a big
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: ruptured testicle there. And then you've got Jacob Wilson. So,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's five of their nine starting lineup bats.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: So I also call out that, like, this is going
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: to be one of the teams to stream against for
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: pitching down the stretch because there is, Nobody in this
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: lineup except for Zach Galoff. And even at home, you
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: might want to think about it. In Sacramento, this team's
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: not going to be able to put up much, I
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: don't think.
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: I have a team that has like Langelier's, Rooker, and
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: Kurt's all in the aisle. It's just funny to look at.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: Like my aisle's all the athletics.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got a lot of these dudes too because, yeah,
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: they were very valuable for fantasy. Certainly a mixed bag
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: of a year this year after a great, opening season
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: for Wilson last year, a 266, 298, 388 slash line
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: at 83 WRC plus, uh, the defense played over the
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: 80 games is it's always going to play for Jacob Wilson,
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: but only seven homers compared to 13 last year. And, uh, surprise, surprise,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: all that power that he showed last year did not
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: kind of reappear as well as like the walk rate
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: backed up on him, the K rate backed up on
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: him and he was on and off the IL constantly.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: So is this a situation where, Hey, you, you, you
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: believe in Jacob Wilson. He's only 24. He turns 25
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: next spring. Uh, you saw a pretty good 2025 out
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: of him. You can see the up arrow coming back
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: after the injuries, or is this a more of like, Hey,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: 2025 was fun. I hope we enjoyed it while we
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: could for Jacob Wilson, but that was probably the most
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: peak fantasy year we're going to see. Yeah.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, um, Unfortunately for the Athletics who signed him
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: to a significant 70 or $ 70 million contract. I do
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: think that 25 was probably his peak, especially from a
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: power perspective. He came out swinging. He, he had some
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: nice little luck. Things were flying out of the ballpark.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: The average really worked in spite of the fact that
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: he doesn't take many walks. I think he, the league
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: is adjusted to, I almost called him Jack Wilson, but, uh,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: is adjusted to Jacob Wilson here. And he doesn't have
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: the profile necessarily to me that to really adjust back. Um,
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: I think that that's, that's my concern from him. So yeah,
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: could he maybe see that batting average jump a little
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: bit higher, maybe get to a two 70 to 85 potentially. Um,
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: but You want to talk about our good buddy Luis Urias.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: This is that kind of profile. And yes, maybe you
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: could say best case outcome is Luis Urias. If he
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: gets a batting average way back up, Luis Urias with
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: maybe two more home runs, something like that. But it's
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: just not something that I'm going to want to invest
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: in because I think the downside is too significant because
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: he's just not going to give you the power numbers,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: the run production. He's not going to run that much.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: You're really looking at a batting average asset here and
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: if that's the one thing you're relying on it's going
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: to be really hard for that to be a carrying
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: card for any player yep i i think i i.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: Agree with you in terms of the overall assessment i
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: will say that like from real life fans for real
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: life baseball it is a better profile because the glove
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: will play yeah but also because of that too like
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: honestly not a bad al only league target i think
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: because i think the price will be still pretty cheap
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: and He's going to be the everyday shortstop for the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: A's and get his games and home games to Sacramento.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: We'll post a decent batting average to be able to
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: buoy you in an AL only league. So the deeper
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: you go in terms of depth of league, honestly, you're
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: just looking for guys that post and aren't going to
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: absolutely hammer your ratios too hard. And Jacob Wilson can
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: be that. So something to consider if you're in a
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: league that really values the ability to show up on
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: the diamond every day and just kind of not sink
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: your team overall. Okay. Last set of injuries that we have.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: It's a, it's a pair. It's a duo from the
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Braves. We've got Spencer Schwellenbach and a Hurston Waldrop
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: going down with elbow surgeries. Hurston Waldrop is undergoing Tommy
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: John surgery. And it was a very, very rough year
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: for him that could not find the zone. whatsoever ran
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: walk rates that began with a 17 across the minors
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: and the big leagues so certainly disappointing uh and also
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: like i think he's been needing this for a decent
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: amount of time where i think there was always chatter
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: that like kirsten waldrop was a little banged up coming
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: out of florida and now he's finally underneath going underneath
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: the knife uh gonna be Interesting to see where he
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: comes back for the Braves, considering how chock-full they are
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: with arms. Spencer Schwellenbach getting surgery on the broken elbow
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: they suffered. Total zero out of him this year, which
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: this was my sell back at the beginning of the
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: year because people were drafting him coming off that broken elbow.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: And this is exactly why I was not in the
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: experience that broken elbows don't usually work out terribly well.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: And they're very difficult, I think, to make a comeback
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: from where... I think some people are in the, the
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: mindset that, Hey, you know, it's not a ligament easier
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: to recover from in terms of, you know, the ligaments
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: snap and sprain and they don't come back and regrow
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: the way bones do. But I actually think it's the
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: other way around where if you're, if you can't pitch
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: without breaking parts of your elbow bones, that's a little
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: bit concerning for me where, you know, the ability to
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: stretch out UCLs and stuff happens to all pitchers, but,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: It doesn't happen that all of them break their bones
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: and their elbows. So where are you at here with
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: Waldrop and Schwellenbach? Any interest going forward? Or are these
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: finally extreme enough cases where you can also join me
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: in staying away from the injured pitcher?
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm never going to fully say no, because I
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: think there's enough talent, especially in the Atlanta system, that
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: I want to watch. But if I'm ranking the two,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: I'm more interested in Schwellenbach than I am Waldrop. Waldrop
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: just never has fully shown me the control and the
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: things he needs to. And I just don't, I mean,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: with this, I'm just worried that that's going to be
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: even further away. Schwellenbach, however, really showed some really interesting things.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: So that's why I'm like slightly tempted just to continue
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: watching that. But to throw some cold water on that one,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: I want to read you a line of another player.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: in their age 25 season. We're talking age 25 season
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: of a 303 ERA. Compare that to Schwellenbach's 309 ERA.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: We're talking a K per nine of 9.2 and a 24.5%
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: K rate. We're talking 878 with a 24.9% K rate
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: for Schwellenbach. Mystery pitcher here from a walk rate perspective
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: is about a 6% walk rate compared to the 4%
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: walk rate of Schwellenbach. Pretty gosh darn similar profiles. Can
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: you name this player?
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: I have no idea. What year was that age 25 season? 2018. Woo, boy,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: that is back there. No, no, give it to me.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: New York Met Noah Sindergaard.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, yeah.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: And if you're talking about similar body build, similar kind
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: of repertoire, similar results, and a guy that really struggled
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: with arm injuries... I mean, this is your direct comp.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: This is your direct comp. And so that's, I felt
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: the same way about Syndergaard when he was coming up.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: The quality and everything you saw looked so good for
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: what we look for in a pitcher. And the injuries
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: were just something he couldn't overcome. And then it just,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: even when he came back, it just took the stuff down.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: That's like, even if we got quote unquote healthy, it
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: just took the stuff down. So that's what I'm worried
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: about for Schwellenbach is that if he can't fully come
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: back and I give him a little bit more benefit
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: out because it took Sundergaard a few of these kind
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: of goes before all the wheels fell off. But I
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: kind of feel like we're like 75% of the way
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: there was Schwellenbach. So I like the profile, but I
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: think if history tells us anything, it's not going to
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: end well.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think the other really big risk here for
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: both Schwellenbach and Waldrop is them both just ended up
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: being relievers that, I think they can be lights out
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: closers and that would be great. But you're looking at
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: just the lack of volume that they've started to throw
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: over the past couple of years. It's going to be
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: really hard, difficult, I think, for them to fully stretch
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: all the way back out as starters, especially given the
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: injury up and downs, ups and downs. And I mean,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: Waltrip's also got such a nasty splitter that like it
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: would be such a wipe out devastating pitches reliever. So
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: I think they could be like pretty upper crust closers,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: but you got to think that Atlanta's got to maybe
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: try a few different paths to be able to keep
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: them healthy going forward. So they've got plenty of starting pitching.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: If they can turn these guys into useful bullpen arms,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: I think they might pull the trigger on that. Okay,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: let's talk about some of the major call-ups that happened. So,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: you know, we got through that slog of injuries, but
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of good insights there. I've got
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: a listing. If you're in those show notes, you can
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: click on it. You'll go to MLB Trade Rumors. It'll
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: give you everybody that was called up and activated as
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: a part of the roster expansions in September. But we
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: are going to focus on a handful of really the
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: biggest prospects that are going to make the biggest impact
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: across September for fantasy baseball. And let's go back to
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Minnesota where outfielder Walker Jenkins got promoted over the past weekend.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: And it's coming on the heels of a AAA campaign
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: where he put up a 308. 407 532 slash line
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: a 142 wrc plus with 12 homers and 17 stolen
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: bases over 307 at bass as a 21 year old
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: this dude is crazy young does not turn 22 until
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: the february time frame when they're reporting back for pitchers
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: and catchers I'll admit, I did not necessarily see this
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: coming in the Walker Jenkins profile that I thought is
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: going to be a little bit like, I mean, maybe
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: it's just because he was in Minnesota, like Max Kepler-y,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: where good bat, solid defense, a little bit more of
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: like a fringy outfielder, but like a good kind of
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: solid 55 future value player. He's flashed a lot more
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: talent with the bat this year, a lot more power.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: And part of it has been, it's It's been his
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: healthiest season so far, really. He's strung together stretches of
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: health in the past, but has also run into lots
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: of injuries because he's a Twins prospect. So it's expected
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: of you. What's your thoughts on Walker Jenkins going forward?
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: Is this a guy where you're still worried about the
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: injuries that have cropped up over the minor league years?
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: Or are you just pumped that this 21-year-old is flashing
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: more power and is now debuting for Minnesota here in September?
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm pumped. I feel like Walker Jenkins, like
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: I felt about Cody Bellinger when he got called up.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: You look at that profile in the minor leagues. You
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: look at the athleticism. You look at the draft pedigree.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: All of those things point to a potential superstar. I
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: don't know if you've looked at his prospect savant page,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: but we are talking blood, red. The only thing that
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: is not ideal is he doesn't pull in the air enough. Okay,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, but everything else is just off the page.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: He's young for the level. He's been doing this as
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: a 21-year-old. He just looks the part. He is a
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: big guy, big body. He can run. He can move.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: You know how many errors he's made in the outfield
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: this year? Zero. He has a good glove. He does
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: all the things well, and he just continues to mature.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: And being so young, there's still more to come. There's
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: still more to come. So I think that this is
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: a legitimate guy that we could be looking at as
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: a potential top few round talent in a year or
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: two here. I really, really like Walker Jenkins. I wish
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: I had more shares of him. I don't have a
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: lot of shares of him because, to your point, like,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: He just matured. I think the talent was always there.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: It was just a question of how much he was
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: going to mature, how much he was going to grow
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: into that body, and then really translate that on the diamond. And,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's come through in spades. It's come through
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: in spades. And even when he's out of the power,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: he's not lost the speed. So I'm excited for what
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: he can do. Wish maybe there was a better lineup,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: if anything, to get a little protection. But, I mean,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: beggars can't be choosers here.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think this is a great
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: little profile. You also look at that spray chart on
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: Prospect Savant. I mean, great back control. He puts it
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: all across the field. Minnesota is a low-key kind of
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: like offensive haven. That's part of the reason, actually, why
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: Buxton's put up some of the numbers that he has.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: And I think we just haven't noticed it because, honestly,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: the teams have been pretty garbage there over the past
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: handful of years. But as some of the other environments
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: around the league have changed, Minnesota has... heated up as
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: well as global warming warming has kicked in. So yeah,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: I think you're looking at a lot of great things
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: in this profile. Yeah. I, I don't think you can see,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: cause I do subscribe to prospects Avant plus and you
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: can see the comps now that our boy Duke has
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: been doing comps in there. The first comp is chase
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: the water, which I think that is a great kind
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: of example. Also a little bit of that twinge of
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: like the injury and, history. Uh, although De Lauder's is
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: more severe than Jenkins is at this point. Uh, the
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: other is, uh, prime steroided up jerks and profile. So I'm.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: Not sure that's a good thing or not. Yeah.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: But, um, I do think that you're looking at a
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: guy who, I don't think that the high end ceiling
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: is there for the, the counting numbers, but you're looking
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: at somebody who's probably going to peak at like 25,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: 25 to 80, uh, Um, so I certainly a great player,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: but not, I don't think he's a first rounder ever,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: but he's like a solid guy where again, it's a
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: nice little, the floor will be there. I think for
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: Jenkins more than what you're looking at, at other options
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: around him when you're getting to the draft next year. Uh, okay.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: Next call up we have is Ethan Salas catcher for
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: the San Diego Padres. and we're talking an even younger
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: guy here, tore through the minor leagues and debuted here
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: at age 20, got into the game this afternoon against
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: the Reds to make his debut. And I mean, he
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: absolutely like turned another like gear on as the season
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: went on. I wasn't necessarily too much into this profile,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: but my colleague Howard Megdahl over at Baseball Perspectives, when
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: we put together a piece a couple of weeks ago on,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: guys that are our guys in dynasty. This was his
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: call out. And, uh, once I started peeling back the
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: layers of what Ethan Salas has been doing since he's
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: really gotten healthy and gotten into a groove, I have really,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a guy who I think is
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: honestly like, it's crazy that he's underrated considering since the
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: beginning of July, uh, across double a and triple a,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: his stats have been three 24, four 11, four 79, uh,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: with more walks than strikeouts. It's a 126 WRC plus again,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: as a 20 year old across those levels. And certainly,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, they were in good offensive environments, especially triple
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: a in El Paso, but the WRC plus tells you
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: that it's a pretty good bat and he should get
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: strong side platoon opportunities, possibly for the Padres where they
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: are juggling him with Freddie for mean and lose Camposano. But,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: Freddie Firmin has not hit at all. Camposano has come
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: alive more, but Salas is known for his glove. So
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: he might be the best catcher on the Padres right
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: now as they make their playoff run. And I think
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: if he shows anything, they have no reason not to
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: plug and play Salas. So I'm pretty bullish on him
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: going forward. Where are you at with Salas?
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I was surprised that he was called up.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: To your point, Camposano and Firmin have been been fine.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: Like they haven't been good, but they've been fine and serviceable. Um,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: and you know, being a 20 year old, uh, still
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: definitely room for, for development, um, here with the overall
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: hit tool. But like, I kind of low key feel
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: like this is the Gustin Ramirez that we hoped we
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: were getting, um, last year. I mean, there is some
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: speed here. Is he an efficient base dealer? No, he's been,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: he stole 17, got caught eight times this year. Um,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: And that's not ideal, but he's got a little pop.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: He's been able to do those things. And so this
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: is that kind of catcher that could hit for a
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: decent average, steal some bases, hit some homers, be a
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: good enough fielder that he gets away from what Augusto
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: Ramirez struggled with, which was strikeouts he couldn't field. And
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: if he doesn't have a strikeout issue and he can field...
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: but he can fill the stat sheet in the same way.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: Like that's the best of both worlds. And so I
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: low-key think this is going to be an interesting one
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: because I don't, even though you said, I don't think
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: he's going to get the same playing time that you're thinking.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to be fully in that
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: strong side platoon. I think he's going to get spots
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: here and there, and they're going to try to work
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: him in really trying to see like, if he's like
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: going to be a kind of catapult for a playoff run.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: But I think that that's going to give him some
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: value next year. Cause I don't think people are going
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: to realize what he's doing because he's not going to
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: be doing it kind of full time. You know, the
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: team's good, but you know, there's still a question of
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: like truly will they make the playoffs? So I like
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: a lot of the profile. I still think he's going
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: to be a sneaky value next year, but this sets
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: him up to be the full time catcher in 27.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: And I think it's going to be like, it's going
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: to be a really surprising profile across the board. And
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: if he's doing this now, just at, at, at 20, man,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of growth here.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I think I'm there. And in terms of
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: like dynasty, I mean, I have a feeling whoever's got
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: Salas in your league has probably been on the Salas
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: train watching this all summer and it's going to be
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: really tough to acquire him, but it does feel like there's,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: a lot more buzz that should be surrounding him considering
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: how much there was when he signed with the Padres.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: It just fizzled out with those back injuries that I'm
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: also looking, Prospect Savant also, I mean, shout out to Duke.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: He's been doing lots of great work, but he's got
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: a little like card section down in the bottom right
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: of each page too, where you can see like cards
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: for sale. And I can tell you that these Ethan
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: Salas prices are, significantly lower than where they were when he,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: these cards came out. You can get on card Chrome
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: first Bowman Chrome like 200, 150 bucks. Like these were
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: four to $ 500 cards when they came out. So I
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: think there's a lot of intrigue in Salas and he's,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: I think the youngest player to start at catchers since
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: Yvonne Rodriguez or something like that. Maybe the, the owners
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: get called up since Yana Navarro, which is another kind of,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: You can see the dichotomy there, but when you add
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: in the prospect pedigree for Salas and the terrific season
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: he's put together, there's a lot of things that I
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: really like about this profile. I don't think the power
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: is going to be there right away out the gate.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: I think you're looking more at a batting average guy,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: but I think you can see something where he morphs
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: into what Gabby Moreno became this year in a couple
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: years for the Padres. Okay, next call up we have
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: another good divisive one here. Lazaro Montes from the Seattle
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Mariners got called up and is joining the big league club.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: Homered in his debut, so he's already knocked that off,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: but sat today against a lefty. This is going to
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: be a strong side platoon only situation for Montes, which
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: it's going to be hard for him to shake that,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: I think, going forward, especially given the K rates that
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: he ran in the minors. You are looking at a
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: AAA season that, well, I guess we'll combine AA and
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: AAA as a 21-year-old. 38 homers, 99 runs, 96 RBI
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: in 123 games, 249, 369, 558 slash nine. It was
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: a 138 WRC plus, a great 14.6% walk rate, but
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: a miserable 30.6% K rate, as well as like This
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: is a guy where we've discussed him over the years.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: I think we're both also lower on him because of, like,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: if you're scouting the stat sheet, that looks great. That
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: stat line is great. Certainly the Ks are high, but, like,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: it looks amazing. The problem is when you're reading the
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: prospect reports, this dude does have holes in his swing,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: and you can see it. It's a bit grooved, and
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: he's also just big. So there's a lot more gallow,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: I think, here where, like, good and bad obviously because
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: Gallo peaked with some pretty strong seasons but bottomed out
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: pretty quickly as well so uh what's your take on
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: montes he's only 21 years old turns 22 in just
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: over a month but uh made a rapid rise through
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: that system and like i said popped a homer in his.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: Debut Yeah, I mean, I'm glad to see him called
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: up because there wasn't much left for him to do.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: He's kind of the American League Andrew Fisher. And I'm
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: not a compliment on either side or not. But I
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: think the strikeouts are a big issue. The batting average
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: is going to be pretty atrocious. And you're going to
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: be in a platoon situation. But he's also a guy
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: that could probably hit 40 home runs. Like, right? It's
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: really an interesting profile. So I think.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: We need to see what he can become and if
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: he can kind of carve out that role. Because I
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: think if this season has told us anything, you know,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: one of my big call-outs this year is Dominic Canzone. And,
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: you know... while he was in this platoon role, even
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: though he was hitting, man, was it hard in Seattle
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: to keep enough of those counting stats and make it worthwhile. Now,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: he's playing full-time now, so it seems like it's working
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: itself out. I just don't know if Montez can actually
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: ever get to full-time, and I think he's going to
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: have such hot and cold stretches. He's going to have
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: a week where he hits six home runs, and then
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: he's going to strike out 13 times the next week.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: That's probably low. 20 times the next week. It's It's
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: going to be very, very hot and cold. And I
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: don't see him as a great fielder. I don't see him,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: you know, even though he's stolen a few bases, I
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: don't see much speed. Like I said, I think this
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: is a 210, 220 bat. Maybe there's a lot more
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: to like in an OBP league. That might be really
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: where his sweet spot is going to be because he
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: does walk a lot. But I think in a pure roto.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: this is going to be a real challenging profile or
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: more like your later rounds kind of dart throw. Maybe
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: into the season here, if you're really looking to stream,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: he might be a good streamer for power. But I'm
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: very nervous about him long-term.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: Yep, I think I'm there with you. And I should
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: have brought this up with Ethan Salas too, with the
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: comps that we rattled off for Walker Jenkins, because I
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: think this is where it stands out, where we're talking
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: about where Ethan Salas' comps on Prospect Savant it's actually
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: kind of cool the way that he's got this built
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: where he's got like overall comps and then like a
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: power contact and approach comps. So the overall comps are
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: the names for Ethan Salas are like Alejandro Kirk, Mookie Betts,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: Brendan Donovan, Cody Clemens, Jung-Hoo Lee, Bryce Terang, guys who
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: are good bats. Here's the list that are like the,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: so here's the, the main comps for Lazaro Montes, Matt Walner,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: Matt Walner, Last year's Rafael Devers in 2025. Power is
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: Gerard Encarnacion. Contact is Matt Tice. And Approach is Nolan Gorman.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: So a slightly different group of names from what we
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: were talking about with Salas and Jenkins. So I think
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: that kind of tells you the story. And I think
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: the reports from when you're reading the looks that scouts
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: are getting at him, I think also align with that.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: Where I think you're looking a little bit more in
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: the Matt Walner territory. with Montes than you are actually
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: with even like a Joey Gallo where the other factor
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: with Joey Gallo was he played a great outfield, won
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: a gold glove. You know what I mean? So like
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: if Montes can't play the field and he's DH only,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: he might have looked like Jordan in the minors, but
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: he does not have the Jordan smooth approach that's going
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: to survive in the majors.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I fully agree. I'm yeah, fully agree on this one. Okay.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: Uh, next call up we have is Luis de Leon who, uh,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: made his debut today, but took the L in Colorado,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: which is a bummer for him. Uh, and we're looking
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: at a player who honestly, I was surprised that he
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: got called up for Baltimore. They have a lot of
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: arms that were certainly outperforming him throughout their, uh, minor
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: league system. And they even had like great relievers on
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: their AAA roster as well. Uh, because, uh, Before the call-up,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: Luis de Leon was really struggling to find the zone.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: He would put up a 12% walk rate at AAA.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: He put up a 12% walk rate at AA this year.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: The K-BB at AAA over his 18 innings before coming
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: up was 11.1%. And, I mean, they've really started kind
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: of turning him into a little bit more of like
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: a high leverage reliever. But I think we'll see some
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: hybrid roles here from Luis de Leon. is coming up
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: with some great, great velocity, a nasty slider, a guy
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: who I think, especially last year, people were starting to
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: latch on more, especially after he put up the 330
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: ERA after over 87 and a third innings as a
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: 22-year-old after over a couple levels. But this is certainly
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: the fourth of the guys that we got covering up
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: that are a known name in the prospect world. But
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: what do you think about De Leon? Do you think
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: that there is a possibility that because the Orioles called
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: upon him over some of the other options, there's more
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: than we're seeing? Or is this a little bit more
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: of like, hey, maybe they're actually on the other end
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: where they're thrown in the towel on De Leon being
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: a starter and it's time for him to start his
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: reign as a big time strikeout lefty in the bullpen?
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if I had to pick, it would
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: be the latter there because he's the kind of guy
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: that has some nasty stuff. he keeps the ball on
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: the ground an incredible amount with the splitter, the slider,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: the changeup that he uses. He throws 99 consistently and
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: can carry that, which is impressive. I just don't think
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: he has the control to make it deep enough in
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: games and take advantage of the fact that his stuff
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: can be nasty. I think this is a reliever profile
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: all day. And so I think that's really what they're
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: looking at is like, hey, there's a wide range of
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: outcomes here. Let's get them up. Let's put him in
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: some games. Let's see what he can do. And let's
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: make sure that our assessment is right. And then he's
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: a bullpen arm going forward. So I think that's why
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: he kind of skipped the line to a degree is
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: that I don't think they see him as a foundational piece.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: I think they're like, yeah, this is a high-octane reliever potential.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: And we've got enough issues in the back of this
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: bullpen trying to figure out what's going on. If he
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: can develop into that high-octane reliever and we don't have
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: to talk about Ryan Helsley or Felix Bautista or Yner Cano,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: like any of those guys, we should be happy. So
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: that's the play to me here. And that's not a
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: bad play. That's not a bad play because I think
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: he's a guy that could excel in that role. Yeah. Yeah.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: I think I agree that like, if anything, it's something
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: to keep an eye on him for maybe being like
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: a closer next year too. Cause like he's got closer
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: stuff between the sinker slider and the splitter that like
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: it's you can see where he can maybe try the
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: world as Chapman route a little bit where he certainly
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: doesn't throw that hard, but like it's pretty wicked stuff.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: And the other reason I'm on that boat is there's
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of great starting pitching talent that's going to
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: be coming through. They loaded up at the deadline, bringing
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: in Ian Sin as well. But like, I love Joseph Giroir.
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: He's coming through. Caden Hunter's coming through. Actually, I think
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: they're telling DeLeon like, hey, you're not a future starter
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: for us anyway. Let's make this conversion now and get
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: the most out of you going forward. Okay, so that's
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: going to cover us for the news and notes and
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: the call-ups and everything. We do have some baseball card
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: release calendar updates that if you're in those show notes,
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: check it out. Because next week we will be talking
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: the release of 2026 Bowman Chrome. That comes out on
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: September 9th. We had some other items get shuffled around
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: since we talked two weeks ago. I think originally it
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: was slated for the Topps Chrome series. team japan samurai
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: to actually come out but it was just a pre-order
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: so that's actually not hitting shelves till october 16th we
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: also had panini 3-2 was supposed to get released and
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: then just got punted to tbd status so uh classic
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: panini i don't i can't remember the last time panini
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: delivered on like an actual deadline yeah we put into
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: the calendar uh but we've also had crop up The
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: Tops Allen Ginter, usually actually a spring release, but is
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: now going to be coming out later this fall. September
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: 8th preorder and Tops update is on the schedule now, too.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: That's a September 14th preorder. So mark your calendars because
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: those are going to be pretty major sets. I mean,
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: I'm actually really looking forward to update. We're about to
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: have a big old class of rookies. What about what
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: are you thinking? Is it going to be a pretty
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: major release here in the fall?
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it will be. I mean, last year was.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: I think this year is going to be a pretty
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: strong one. So I think that they know that. And
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: so that's why they're kind of making sure to get
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: it out here on calendars and get that pre-order going
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: while the season's still hot and get committed to it.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a pretty, pretty strong,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: strong class. And I will cover it when we get there. Uh,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: but it's not, it's not one where she's like one
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: guy's going to carry it. You got a number of
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: guys in there that you should be really excited to
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: try to pull. Um, and it's going to be, it's
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: going to be one of those. I think it can
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: withstand time, uh, going forward. So I'm really excited about
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: the update this year.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I, I am too, where I haven't bought
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: any hobby boxes or any hobby products this year, but
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: I might get in on a little bit on update. Um,
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: Also just kind of like, yeah, spending some of those
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: Joshua bias dollars and stuff.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: I've cleared some other stuff actually have the chance to,
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: but I think it's also worth noting that like, it
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: will be a very hit or miss product, uh, the
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: way that flagship is, but even to a higher degree, because.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: that's the way update works that you've got lots of rookies,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: but you also got lots of relievers that like change
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: jobs or are getting their first rookie cards and stuff.
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: So it can be both worlds, but then you can
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: also stash away a lot of those rookies and hope
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: that they become something On the other hand, also probably
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: going to be a pretty decent little print run on
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: this sucker.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be massive.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: Because of J.J. Weatherhold and Connor Griffin et al., Kevin
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: McGonigal that are going to be in this product. So
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: it's going to be pretty much a chase the autos,
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: chase the parallels of the big guys or miss. But
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: if you're ready for that, both mentally, physically, and emotionally,
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: then go for it. Okay. That's going to wrap us
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: up for this week. Like I said, check out the
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: show notes for anything that we've talked about. You'll also
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: find down there a link to Ras ball baseball subscriptions.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, I bet if you email Rudy, you could
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: probably get a prorated like discount because there's obviously only
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: one month left that there's, it's a great tool. I mean,
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: certainly if you're in a big league where you're talking
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: hundreds of dollars swinging on a few Roto points, certainly
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: invest in the tool, but yeah, it will pump out
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: great streaminator picks for you. So lots of guys that
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: are highlighted from both hitting and pitching that can give
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: you edges, especially in daily leagues. And I use it.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: I check it every week now for weekly leagues, especially
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: given some of the roster fluctuations that we've seen because
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: of September. And then also while you're down there, check
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: out the link to cards and categories gear. So we've
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: got hats and mugs and other stuff emblazoned with the
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: cards and categories logo. Click on it down in the
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: show notes. Brew, let everybody know where they can read
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: your work and find you on socials. Yep.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: Find me on Twitter, xBlueSky, jbrewer17. Find me, Razzball, on
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: the weekends doing top 100 hitter rankings. That's hard to
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: say sometimes. And hitter profiles for the rest of the year.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: We'll probably just be doing hitter profiles. Hitter rankings aren't
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: as valuable this time of year because you've got to
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: be doing the streaming. So come out and join me
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: on the weekends. Cooley, where can folks find you?
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can read my work over at Baseball Perspectives,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: where I'm continuing to cover starting pitching every week. And then, yeah,
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: random topics here and there. I was on the Ras
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: Ball podcast the past couple of weeks. So certainly go
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: check that out. B-Don is back and yucking it up
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: again with Gray. I'll be on the Roto-Wire podcast this week, too.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: So go over there. Listen to me talking to Eric Halterman.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: We're going to cover more just kind of in-depth dives
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: of what you can look for in September performances. So
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: it should be a fun chat with Eric this week. Thanks, everybody,
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: for checking out the podcast. If you haven't done so
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: so far, rate and review us wherever you're listening to us.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: We greatly appreciate it. And we greatly appreciate you checking
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: out this podcast. Thanks. And we will be back same time,
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: same place next week to talk some Bowman Chrome 2026.