Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / CFB Wiz Phil Steele and Scooch Talk College Football

Transcript

CFB Wiz Phil Steele and Scooch Talk College Football · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. It's the middle of August, folks.
0:17
Speaker 1: We are less than three weeks away from the beginning
0:21
Speaker 1: of college football. From week zero of college football, which
0:25
Speaker 1: means today is going to be a college football spectacular
0:31
Speaker 1: from the perspective of what the wise guys are doing
0:34
Speaker 1: and who they're betting and who they like. So later
0:37
Speaker 1: on in the show, you're not gonna want to miss it.
0:39
Speaker 1: Phil Steel. Phil Steel's two thousand nineteen college football previews
0:44
Speaker 1: out now. You can go to fill steel dot com
0:45
Speaker 1: and get it. Everybody knows that if you are a better,
0:50
Speaker 1: the bible for college football in preseason magazines is Phil
0:55
Speaker 1: Steel and every better I know religiously reads that magazine.
1:00
Speaker 1: And I learned this from my favorite co host, Mr
1:06
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci. Does not get old, does it? Scooch from Music? Yeah,
1:27
Speaker 1: the music is back. I like it. Bob Scucci from
1:29
Speaker 1: New Orleans and all the Boyd gaming books throughout this
1:33
Speaker 1: great nation of ours. Bookmaker to the world. That music
1:40
Speaker 1: gets me so psyched up for you to come on
1:43
Speaker 1: the show. It's inexplicable and to talk football already, it
1:49
Speaker 1: seems like we were just doing it a few weeks ago.
1:52
Speaker 1: We were. We did it last week, exactly one week ago,
1:58
Speaker 1: we did it, SCOOCHI you and I. You and I
2:00
Speaker 1: talked about football, and we're gonna do it again last week.
2:04
Speaker 1: I know, I know, these these moments are so important
2:07
Speaker 1: for you. Hey, by the way, let's give a shout
2:11
Speaker 1: out here. Let's give a shout out to one of
2:13
Speaker 1: our favorite people. Okay, I'm going to give a shout
2:17
Speaker 1: out to Evan Young. Right, do you know what I'm
2:21
Speaker 1: talking about? Um? Evan Young, who in the years past
2:27
Speaker 1: has won the get Your Prop Up in Vegas contest
2:31
Speaker 1: for uh gets gets He picks a prop and creates
2:34
Speaker 1: it and Scooch picks the winner and for the Super Bowl,
2:37
Speaker 1: Uh he gets it up in the in Vegas. Right,
2:40
Speaker 1: So he's one of a couple of years in a row.
2:42
Speaker 1: And the little backstory here's coming the podcast and he
2:44
Speaker 1: became friends with a guy who also had entered the
2:47
Speaker 1: contest and they sort of connected through the podcast. They
2:51
Speaker 1: became such good friends that this other guy went to
2:55
Speaker 1: Evan's wedding, which happened recently Evan and Kirsten right, and
3:01
Speaker 1: last year before the wedding, Evan and Brian came on
3:05
Speaker 1: the podcast and Brian had asked me and you Scooch
3:08
Speaker 1: to sign a copy of the odds that he could
3:10
Speaker 1: give to Evan for the wedding, which he did, which
3:13
Speaker 1: was very nice Evan. Since Evan this past weekend sent
3:18
Speaker 1: us the wedding video like the ten minute wedding video
3:22
Speaker 1: from him and Kirsten's wedding and his and Kirston's wedding
3:25
Speaker 1: and it is dropped dead lovely, dropped dead romantic. You.
3:30
Speaker 1: You know how much I love love. I've seen you,
3:33
Speaker 1: I've been to your wedding. I know how much you
3:35
Speaker 1: love love. You cannot help but love this wedding video.
3:41
Speaker 1: That was great. I appreciate seeing that. And haven't you
3:44
Speaker 1: sent that to me? That was great to say, Oh
3:46
Speaker 1: my god, it was so awesome. So we're wishing Evan
3:48
Speaker 1: and Kirston the best. I hope they're still listening to
3:51
Speaker 1: the podcast together and um, we want them to be
3:54
Speaker 1: happy and healthy in marriage. And also the best part
3:58
Speaker 1: about the wedding video and the reason Evan sent is
4:00
Speaker 1: because his father in law. The opening line was, I
4:04
Speaker 1: know Evan likes to bet on sports, and I know
4:07
Speaker 1: he's really good at betting on sports, and I'm betting
4:12
Speaker 1: on this to be a long and happy marriage. That
4:16
Speaker 1: was a great line. It just seems like it was
4:19
Speaker 1: a fun wedding. I kind of wish we were there
4:21
Speaker 1: now that I think about it. It's a little weird.
4:23
Speaker 1: He didn't invite us, right, it's a little weird, a
4:29
Speaker 1: little hurt, a little weird. He didn't ask either one
4:32
Speaker 1: of us to officiate. I'm sure the bride would have
4:37
Speaker 1: appreciated that. How were we not the people that were hosting?
4:41
Speaker 1: Like that? We were the hosts. Now, everybody welcome Evan's
4:45
Speaker 1: father in law, and he's gonna give a toast, like
4:50
Speaker 1: now that I think about it, Now that I think
4:52
Speaker 1: about it, all the good will I'm passing along to
4:54
Speaker 1: Evan I'm taking back because I can't believe we weren't
4:56
Speaker 1: invited in a part of this wedding. Ye, that's ridiculous, scooge.
5:02
Speaker 1: Like I said, I got Phil, I got Phil Steel
5:03
Speaker 1: coming on later on in the show. And as you know,
5:06
Speaker 1: Phil Steel is a college football savant whose magazine is
5:11
Speaker 1: beloved by every better in the world. So the same
5:15
Speaker 1: same exercise last week, only this time for college football
5:19
Speaker 1: right now, Scooch, give me the teams that are the
5:22
Speaker 1: biggest liabilities, because the wise guys are pounding them in
5:27
Speaker 1: terms of future odds for your bevy of sports books. Okay, well,
5:33
Speaker 1: I'll separate just a couple out. The wise guys are
5:38
Speaker 1: have bet Georgia down. We were at eight to one,
5:41
Speaker 1: we're down due six to one. But they're not the
5:45
Speaker 1: team that we have the biggest liability. The teams that
5:47
Speaker 1: we have the biggest liability is actually USC But I
5:50
Speaker 1: wouldn't call any of it sharp money. It's probably just
5:53
Speaker 1: more uh you know, probably the first time you've seen
5:56
Speaker 1: USC at you know, seventy one or hundred to one,
6:00
Speaker 1: So we have a pretty big liability on them. Uh.
6:03
Speaker 1: Georgia was a little bit of a wise guy play.
6:07
Speaker 1: And then some other bets from from sharp guys. Uh
6:12
Speaker 1: our Oregon at thirty five to one. Uh, Penn State
6:17
Speaker 1: at fifty to one, and you know they stay away
6:20
Speaker 1: from the favorites. You're not going to see the wise
6:22
Speaker 1: guys coming in on Clemson Alabama, you know two to
6:26
Speaker 1: one or three to one, so they're looking at kind
6:29
Speaker 1: of legitimate contenders. Uh. Kind of Texas is another one
6:34
Speaker 1: that got a got drew a little fire. I don't
6:37
Speaker 1: believe in Texas. Yeah, I'm okay with that one. Uh,
6:43
Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm not really worried about that. We're haven't
6:46
Speaker 1: moved it too much. We moved it from twenty to
6:48
Speaker 1: one down to fifteen and one, but we're hanging, hanging
6:52
Speaker 1: tough at fifty one. Why to believe and why don't
6:56
Speaker 1: you believe in Texas? And I don't know that the
7:01
Speaker 1: talent is there yet? Um B I feel like and uh,
7:07
Speaker 1: Tom Herman, I'm giving the podcasters a little bit of
7:11
Speaker 1: a preview podcast listeners. Later on the show, Phil Steel
7:15
Speaker 1: is going to talk about Tom Herman not being a
7:19
Speaker 1: great coach is a favorite and he doesn't believe that.
7:24
Speaker 1: He believes that is something that can be overcome. I
7:27
Speaker 1: do not. I think that that is something that is
7:30
Speaker 1: inherent in the psychology of the way a coach approaches
7:35
Speaker 1: the game. Pat Fitzgerald is the same way. These guys
7:39
Speaker 1: have found a lot of success. Tom Herman before Texas,
7:42
Speaker 1: UH and Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern similar molds. They have
7:46
Speaker 1: found a lot of success getting their guys amped with
7:50
Speaker 1: a little bit less talent to play against the big
7:52
Speaker 1: boys and um and uh exceed expectations. And I think
7:59
Speaker 1: when you are a coach who can sort of get
8:01
Speaker 1: people to an emotional peak, it's really much harder to
8:04
Speaker 1: do it on a weekend, week out basis when you
8:07
Speaker 1: are a favorite. Wow, that's pretty insightful. That was pretty good. Yeah.
8:14
Speaker 1: I got to admit. Even the intern in the office
8:17
Speaker 1: right now, he's shaking his head, he's smiling, he's like this.
8:21
Speaker 1: He's like, he's like, this is the most I've learned
8:24
Speaker 1: all summer. Oh, that's pretty good. You can take that
8:30
Speaker 1: back to school psychology class. Drop that, drop that on
8:35
Speaker 1: his profts. Like that guy knows what he's doing. He
8:38
Speaker 1: learned a lot this insnship. So that's why Texas doesn't
8:40
Speaker 1: scare me. Oregon is really interesting to me because Oregon
8:45
Speaker 1: is a team that should. It scares me and it
8:47
Speaker 1: should scare you because that pack twelve is wide open,
8:52
Speaker 1: Scooch wide open, and Oregon could run that table. They
8:56
Speaker 1: got a lot of good athletes, they're recruiting classes continue
8:59
Speaker 1: to get better, and that is a like they can
9:02
Speaker 1: come out of that in the playoff. That's a scary one.
9:05
Speaker 1: Tell me how you're feeling about that one. I do
9:09
Speaker 1: I mean I am scared of them. I mean, after
9:13
Speaker 1: kind of four years of this this coach, they've they've
9:18
Speaker 1: made significant uh strides. Uh. Last year I think they
9:23
Speaker 1: had nine wins uh maybeat I think Michigan State UM
9:28
Speaker 1: in one of the Bowl games that they're they're coming
9:32
Speaker 1: from their peak, you know, like about ten years ago
9:34
Speaker 1: they had their their regression and their what I considered
9:39
Speaker 1: to be the tops to two teams in the Pac twelve.
9:43
Speaker 1: So they do scare me at these odds. Mario, crystal Ball.
9:49
Speaker 1: By the way, is the head coach that's the name
9:50
Speaker 1: you were looking for? Yeah? Is it Crystal Ball or
9:54
Speaker 1: crystal Ball? Good question? Doing need to know how to
10:01
Speaker 1: pronounce the names of the coach in order to bet
10:03
Speaker 1: on the team and feel good about that particular wager.
10:06
Speaker 1: I think you do. Really, I wouldn't want people call
10:09
Speaker 1: me Bob Sushi. People should only call you scooch. Okay, scooch,
10:18
Speaker 1: and that's how they should say it. All right, So
10:21
Speaker 1: Texas doesn't scare me. Oregon, I agree with the choice. Um,
10:27
Speaker 1: what was the other one? Georgia, Oh, Georgia, Georgia. They're
10:33
Speaker 1: on my mind. You're a scoot, will sing it? I
10:37
Speaker 1: got Georgia on my mind. That's a really interesting one
10:42
Speaker 1: that like, this team can compete with Alabama. This team
10:47
Speaker 1: can beat Alabama in a conference title game, This team
10:51
Speaker 1: can beat Alabama in a playoff. They have played Alabama
10:54
Speaker 1: so tough. They are such a good team. They have
10:57
Speaker 1: a quarterback who has been around, who was beaten back competition,
11:02
Speaker 1: who has gotten better and better every single year. He's
11:05
Speaker 1: one of those guys who's gonna feel like he's been
11:07
Speaker 1: playing for fifty years even though he's only a junior. Like,
11:11
Speaker 1: this is a team that I think it compete. I
11:14
Speaker 1: think you made a mistake even posting him at eight
11:16
Speaker 1: to one, and I know you opened lower than other places. Yeah, yeah,
11:21
Speaker 1: we did. Uh And I guess that's the criteria. You know,
11:24
Speaker 1: who can be Clemson in Alabama? And that's certainly one
11:28
Speaker 1: of the teams that can. You know, at those odds,
11:30
Speaker 1: I mean, we're not gonna get We're not gonna get hurt.
11:33
Speaker 1: We have more bets on Georgia, I think than any
11:36
Speaker 1: other team as I'm looking at this, Uh, more individual
11:39
Speaker 1: wagers on Georgia than any other team on the board.
11:42
Speaker 1: But because at eight to one, the liability isn't as
11:45
Speaker 1: great as some of those long shots. But this is
11:48
Speaker 1: uh yeah, this is one I'm probably uh a little
11:52
Speaker 1: worried about more individual wagers on Georgia than anybody else
11:55
Speaker 1: on the board that's on our board. Yeah yeah, and
12:00
Speaker 1: uh close second is actually uh Notre Dame. Uh and
12:05
Speaker 1: that's an interesting one too, But a lot of that
12:08
Speaker 1: is just the public support for Notre Dame and just
12:11
Speaker 1: you know, their nationwide appeal. Yeah. I mean, look, that's
12:16
Speaker 1: a team that also you know it's going to be competitive. Um,
12:20
Speaker 1: they played strong last year and so there's a lot
12:23
Speaker 1: of sort of there's a lot of public sentiment for
12:26
Speaker 1: what they're gonna do, So I can see that one.
12:29
Speaker 1: Also their helmets are shiny. Yeah, and the same with USC.
12:34
Speaker 1: Like I said, there's our biggest liability on the board.
12:36
Speaker 1: We get absolutely annihilated on them. But uh, you know,
12:41
Speaker 1: their season win total is six and a half games,
12:44
Speaker 1: so I'm not I'm not super worried that they're going
12:47
Speaker 1: to have a breakout year. Who are the five season
12:50
Speaker 1: win totals you're most worried about right now? Um, well,
12:56
Speaker 1: we've got a lot of them on the board. Actually, Uh,
12:58
Speaker 1: I mean some of them are just kind of some
13:00
Speaker 1: small teams, but like San Diego State, Uh, we probably
13:04
Speaker 1: hung a little bit higher number that we should have
13:08
Speaker 1: eight and a half over money, and they just pounded
13:10
Speaker 1: that one under eight and a half. Stanford we hung
13:13
Speaker 1: a low total at six and a half and that
13:15
Speaker 1: got bet up to six and a half over a
13:18
Speaker 1: dollar fifty. So we get kind of hammered on that one. Um,
13:24
Speaker 1: like I said, USC is one that uh not not
13:28
Speaker 1: too worried about it. Um, Hawaii is an interesting one.
13:33
Speaker 1: Now again we have a lot of Hawaiian clientele at
13:35
Speaker 1: at our at our property. So over five and a
13:38
Speaker 1: half games on that one, Uh, not really sure how
13:41
Speaker 1: much of that was from the Hawaiian clientele. And I
13:45
Speaker 1: don't think that was too many. Too many professional betters
13:48
Speaker 1: betting on that one. Um, some of those are probably
13:53
Speaker 1: some of our biggest. Again, Notre Dame over nine and
13:57
Speaker 1: a half games is uh, pretty big decision. But again
14:01
Speaker 1: that's probably a lot of public money. And and they're
14:07
Speaker 1: betting and some sharp money on Oklahoma under ten and
14:11
Speaker 1: a half games. How many bets did you get on Clemson?
14:17
Speaker 1: I bet you you posted count Clemson I bet at
14:21
Speaker 1: eleven and a half Exactly how many bets on the over.
14:25
Speaker 1: Did you get um, quite a few? Uh, probably about
14:33
Speaker 1: five times more than the under that much. Yeah, most
14:40
Speaker 1: of the bets Alabama over Clemson over Ohio State over
14:46
Speaker 1: all three of them. Almost nothing on the under on
14:49
Speaker 1: all three of those teams. What about Michigan, Um, Yeah, Michigan.
14:58
Speaker 1: I think ten and a half over tend to have
15:00
Speaker 1: under a dollar sixty, but they did bet that under
15:04
Speaker 1: ten and a half games were up to ten and
15:06
Speaker 1: a half minus a dollar ninety on the under. It's
15:13
Speaker 1: an interesting one. A lot of people like in Michigan.
15:16
Speaker 1: I know in our Colleges podcast on the Action Network
15:21
Speaker 1: Stucky and Colin Wilson Stuckey. Stuckey hasn't Evan loves Kirsten
15:29
Speaker 1: affection from Michigan right now. Y'all love the energy of
15:36
Speaker 1: that that team and the way Harbor gets them up
15:41
Speaker 1: for I mean, he has such a unique approach. I mean,
15:43
Speaker 1: love him or hate him, There's there's a certain energy
15:47
Speaker 1: that he brings to the games that it's one of
15:49
Speaker 1: those intangibles. It's so interesting to me. You know. One
15:52
Speaker 1: of the things that we noticed last year when we
15:55
Speaker 1: launched the Action Network is which I knew, but the
16:00
Speaker 1: activity in the betting space for college football. If you
16:04
Speaker 1: had to guess, because I know it's hard to break down,
16:07
Speaker 1: if you had to guess, would you say that your
16:10
Speaker 1: handle for college football is equal to your handle for NFL? No, No,
16:16
Speaker 1: it's uh. I mean really nothing comes close to to
16:20
Speaker 1: NFL because it just has such wide appeal and as
16:24
Speaker 1: much as popular as college football is, it's a little
16:29
Speaker 1: bit more regionalized, and uh so we don't get the
16:33
Speaker 1: mass or broad appeal that NFL has. But having said that,
16:38
Speaker 1: there's just so many more college games that you know,
16:42
Speaker 1: the handle approaches NFL only in the sense that there's
16:47
Speaker 1: three times more more games, and if the handle on
16:51
Speaker 1: each game is like, you know, a third of an
16:53
Speaker 1: NFL game, it will kind of equal the total handle.
16:57
Speaker 1: Does that make sense? There's just too there's just so
16:59
Speaker 1: it's like our handle in baseball is uh almost as
17:03
Speaker 1: much as uh football, only because there's games every single
17:07
Speaker 1: day as opposed to once a week. Right, So what
17:09
Speaker 1: you're saying is handle per game is a is more
17:13
Speaker 1: indicative of a t of a sports popularity for betting
17:16
Speaker 1: than overall handle exactly. M hm. Now, having you know,
17:23
Speaker 1: this is the first year that we've opened up sports
17:25
Speaker 1: betting in other regions, and I will say that our
17:29
Speaker 1: two properties in Mississippi college football outrights NFL. They'll get
17:35
Speaker 1: a lot of money on the Saints because of the
17:37
Speaker 1: proximity of New Orleans to uh Biloxi, Mississippi. But colleges
17:43
Speaker 1: came down there, and like I said, it's it's you know,
17:45
Speaker 1: it's all SEC country and uh so, so it's not
17:49
Speaker 1: a surprise to see more money on on college than
17:51
Speaker 1: NFL down there. No, No, that totally makes sense. But
17:54
Speaker 1: then that also impacts how you're gonna set your lines right,
17:57
Speaker 1: how you're gonna set your totals, How are you going
17:59
Speaker 1: to set your uh futurads? Like do you shade Mississippi State,
18:03
Speaker 1: do you shade all miss How do you manage that?
18:06
Speaker 1: It's interesting because that was kind of the idea when
18:09
Speaker 1: we first were thinking about this years ago when we
18:12
Speaker 1: opened up into other states. And you know, you get
18:15
Speaker 1: if you open up in Philadelphia to shade the Eagles
18:18
Speaker 1: a little bit. And the approach that we've found that
18:21
Speaker 1: works is just set what we think is the right
18:24
Speaker 1: number and just let the chips kind of fall where
18:27
Speaker 1: they may. And if we think four is the right number.
18:30
Speaker 1: We're not gonna make it four and a half just
18:32
Speaker 1: because we know that the bets are going to be
18:34
Speaker 1: coming in on Georgia down there or so, and we
18:37
Speaker 1: found that it's uh, it's worked uh in you know,
18:41
Speaker 1: at very early stages. Maybe it's not a big enough
18:43
Speaker 1: sample size, but um, it worked pretty well last year,
18:47
Speaker 1: and I think we may just continue to do that.
18:49
Speaker 1: We're gonna we're gonna move to the sharp guys, you know,
18:52
Speaker 1: guys that we respect, whether they bet here or whether
18:55
Speaker 1: they bet in Mississippi. Were still respect then. But we're
18:58
Speaker 1: not just gonna shade a line on every game down there.
19:02
Speaker 1: Um Now, having said that, there are certain instances during
19:05
Speaker 1: the season, don't get me wrong, we may shade at
19:08
Speaker 1: a half a point here and there, but by and large,
19:10
Speaker 1: we're gonna stick to what we feel is a good number.
19:13
Speaker 1: All right, scools, let's recap for a second Georgia, Oregon,
19:18
Speaker 1: USC Texas, Notre Dame. Those are the future odds that
19:23
Speaker 1: are giving you the most ada as we head into
19:27
Speaker 1: the college football season. That's accurate, exactly, and amazingly, amazingly,
19:34
Speaker 1: the wind totals that are giving you the most concerned
19:39
Speaker 1: are not even like the wind totals that are interesting
19:41
Speaker 1: to anybody. San Diego State, Hawaii. Yeah, and that's typical.
19:50
Speaker 1: I can't tell you like on a college Saturday, uh,
19:53
Speaker 1: you know, Ohio State Michigan will be playing and and
19:56
Speaker 1: that won't even be our biggest decision of the day.
19:58
Speaker 1: Our biggest decision will be kind of rice and air
20:01
Speaker 1: Force or something like that. It's very typical. I guess
20:05
Speaker 1: that's true. But that's my point about college football. That's
20:07
Speaker 1: why it's so amazing is the passion extends far wider
20:13
Speaker 1: than it does for the NFL. Like the places you
20:16
Speaker 1: can pick your spots, what's going to be interesting. The
20:18
Speaker 1: places where people think they can make their money is
20:21
Speaker 1: going to be a far wider maybe it's a mile
20:23
Speaker 1: wide and an inch deep compared to the NFL. But
20:26
Speaker 1: that to me is what makes college football so fascinating
20:29
Speaker 1: as a sport to bet on, the support to track
20:31
Speaker 1: for betting news and people really focus on a particular
20:36
Speaker 1: conference or a particular region and they seem to do
20:38
Speaker 1: well in one area. And we've noticed that over the
20:41
Speaker 1: years to certain betters, professional betters that we followed, uh,
20:45
Speaker 1: you know, we find that they're much stronger in one
20:48
Speaker 1: conference than they are in another. And you know, if
20:50
Speaker 1: we're getting bet from them in that conference, we're gonna
20:54
Speaker 1: move it much more aggressively than if they kind of
20:56
Speaker 1: cross over and bet like an NFL game. Like, Okay,
20:59
Speaker 1: you get he's taking a shot in NFL, but he
21:02
Speaker 1: knows his stuff and this you know in the SEC
21:05
Speaker 1: or or you know, the Big twelve, Big ten. Alright, Scooch,
21:13
Speaker 1: you did a good You did good work today. We're
21:15
Speaker 1: gonna the next the next guest, we gotta get to
21:17
Speaker 1: Phil Steel. And Phil Steel got even deeper college football
21:20
Speaker 1: information than you do. But thank you for coming on
21:22
Speaker 1: your podcasts. Well, I appreciate coming on my podcast. You're
21:29
Speaker 1: thinking yourself for coming on your own podcast. You really
21:32
Speaker 1: are a class act, no wonder your bookmaker of the world.
21:34
Speaker 1: You're like you've been in the hospitality business for so long,
21:38
Speaker 1: you're thinking yourself. Right, it was fun to be here again.
21:43
Speaker 1: All right, Bob Scucci, I'll talk to you later. All right,
21:46
Speaker 1: that's promised. Joining me on the podcast. This man writes
21:52
Speaker 1: what might possibly be the Bible for sports bettors uh,
21:56
Speaker 1: which is a refrain I have heard in twenty years
22:00
Speaker 1: of covering sports betting Mr Phil Steele writes Phil Steel's
22:05
Speaker 1: College Football Preview. The two thousand nineteen edition is available
22:11
Speaker 1: go to Phil steel dot com. How you doing, Phil?
22:15
Speaker 1: You know I am doing great chat and uh mis
22:18
Speaker 1: having our conversations over at ESPN. But I hope all
22:21
Speaker 1: is well with you. Well. I appreciate you coming on.
22:24
Speaker 1: I'm excited to get deep into college football because no
22:26
Speaker 1: one goes deeper than you. I know the effort that
22:29
Speaker 1: you put into the Preview. I know that's why gamblers
22:31
Speaker 1: love it and praise it, and I feel like it's
22:34
Speaker 1: Christmas when they get it back in their mailbox. Um,
22:38
Speaker 1: you've got how many pages three d and fifty pages
22:40
Speaker 1: of the College Football Preview this year? Yeah? Threefty two
22:44
Speaker 1: and it's about the same size we've had the last
22:46
Speaker 1: couple of years because the printer told us if we
22:49
Speaker 1: go much larger that the binding starts to break off easier.
22:52
Speaker 1: So we we sort of limited to three fifty two
22:55
Speaker 1: the last couple of years. But as usual, very little
22:58
Speaker 1: ads and most of the information on top of information. Yeah,
23:01
Speaker 1: so you're going through, You're you're looking at literally every
23:04
Speaker 1: single team in college football that will eventually be BO
23:08
Speaker 1: eligible or a college football playoff eligible, and um, give
23:14
Speaker 1: people a little bit of insight into the effort you
23:17
Speaker 1: put into it. How many coaches you've spoken to, how
23:20
Speaker 1: many recruiters, how many coordinator's spoken to, Like, you're not
23:25
Speaker 1: just looking at the internet and then reframing everything. Yeah,
23:29
Speaker 1: it's quite a bit different than the first year of
23:31
Speaker 1: the magazine. Back then we had about a hundred eighty pages.
23:34
Speaker 1: It was a black and white on new sprint. But
23:36
Speaker 1: this year I talked to over a hundred ten or
23:38
Speaker 1: believe it was about a hundred and ten of the
23:40
Speaker 1: one thirty head coaches out there. And the conversation is
23:43
Speaker 1: generally last about an hour. I send up my sheets
23:47
Speaker 1: with the players on. I like to have them put
23:48
Speaker 1: all my guys in the right order, give me a
23:50
Speaker 1: few notes on each player, and generally it's a pretty
23:53
Speaker 1: lengthy conversation. But I'll tell you what, Chad, the other
23:56
Speaker 1: magazines were hitting the news stand in the middle of May,
23:58
Speaker 1: which means they came out in the middle of April.
24:00
Speaker 1: I was just doing my coaches interviews post spring, so
24:03
Speaker 1: it was all May was my post Spring interviews. And
24:06
Speaker 1: I feel we've got the three deep swell in line
24:08
Speaker 1: for all the teams really has has got the information.
24:11
Speaker 1: It's six months putting this book together. We start the
24:14
Speaker 1: Sunday after Thanksgiving and go all the way through the
24:16
Speaker 1: end of May, and we come out a little bit
24:18
Speaker 1: later and everybody else. But there's a lot of folks
24:20
Speaker 1: that will wait around for the magazine to come out,
24:22
Speaker 1: as opposed to just buying the first couple of football
24:25
Speaker 1: magazines that come out and stop them there. All right,
24:28
Speaker 1: you spoke to a hundred and ten coaches. Yea, what
24:32
Speaker 1: is the most when you give me a nugget? When
24:36
Speaker 1: you heard it, you were like, oh my god, this
24:39
Speaker 1: is amazing. I can't wait to get it into the magazine. Um, well,
24:45
Speaker 1: that's that's tough. It's I don't know if there's I
24:48
Speaker 1: can tell you. There's some nuggets that I got from
24:51
Speaker 1: the coaches that I couldn't put into the magazine. Those
24:54
Speaker 1: are probably the most memorable. Tell me those I can't
24:57
Speaker 1: do that. So that's oh good. That's not good for
25:01
Speaker 1: a podcast. You've got to give me information. Yeah, I'm
25:04
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna have to work on that. Let's get
25:06
Speaker 1: to the next subject. I'll put my mind on something
25:08
Speaker 1: that I can I can share with you. Put your
25:10
Speaker 1: mind on something right now. If I am betting on
25:13
Speaker 1: a team that is undervalued right now, who is that?
25:20
Speaker 1: You know, even though my magazine came out and UH
25:23
Speaker 1: put a label on him and it's hiked up their
25:26
Speaker 1: value considerably, I still think it's the Nebraska Cornhuskers. And
25:30
Speaker 1: you know, last year was my number one most improved
25:33
Speaker 1: team in the country was Florida, and Florida was coming
25:35
Speaker 1: off a four and seventh season. They ended up number
25:38
Speaker 1: seven in the final polls. They didn't have that much
25:40
Speaker 1: improved year. And this year I look at it with Nebraska.
25:42
Speaker 1: You know, Nebraska is a team that last year Scott
25:45
Speaker 1: Frost took over a past happy offense. Mike Riley was
25:48
Speaker 1: pure pass and the offensive line was built for pass blocking.
25:52
Speaker 1: He had to command change the blocking schemes on the
25:54
Speaker 1: offensive line give him to more of the spread option.
25:57
Speaker 1: You did bring in a proper quarterback in Adrian Martinez,
25:59
Speaker 1: but it took time. Those first six games last year
26:02
Speaker 1: they everaged twenty three points per game. But over the
26:04
Speaker 1: last six games, how about thirty seven points per game?
26:07
Speaker 1: Much more impressive. Now they're in the second year of
26:10
Speaker 1: the system. The offensive lines geared to the schemes. Martinez
26:14
Speaker 1: is back, and then you look at the defense. They've
26:16
Speaker 1: got six starters back from a banged up unit last year.
26:19
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have their best defense they've had
26:20
Speaker 1: in years. And then you have to factor the schedule
26:23
Speaker 1: if you're looking for value in the over unders. Uh.
26:26
Speaker 1: Nebraska last year took on a brutal schedule. They had Michigan,
26:29
Speaker 1: Michigan State, Ohio State. Well, Michigan drops off the schedule,
26:33
Speaker 1: Michigan State drops off the schedule, Penn State stays off
26:36
Speaker 1: the schedule. In fact, the only Eastern team they play
26:39
Speaker 1: that was above above among the Big four last year
26:42
Speaker 1: was Ohio State. Thank of Ohio State everything they wanted
26:45
Speaker 1: in Columbus only lost that game by five. Now they
26:48
Speaker 1: get Ohio State at home, so they've got the potential
26:51
Speaker 1: for that one. And then you look at the West.
26:52
Speaker 1: The West is wide open. There's no dominant team. Probably
26:55
Speaker 1: their toughest three foes that they face are Iowa, Northwestern,
26:59
Speaker 1: and Wisconsin. Guess what they get all three of them
27:01
Speaker 1: at home in Lincoln. It wouldn't surprise me this year
27:03
Speaker 1: if Nebraska went from four wins up to double digit wins.
27:07
Speaker 1: And I'm actually picking them to win the Big Ten West.
27:09
Speaker 1: Of course, a lot of the media members also read
27:11
Speaker 1: the magazine, so they were recently the pick to win
27:14
Speaker 1: the Big Town West by the Big Ten media. But
27:16
Speaker 1: there there's still an undervalue team. I believe that total
27:19
Speaker 1: only about eight and a half on them. All Right,
27:22
Speaker 1: Nebraska is an interesting choice. Uh. You mentioned Wisconsin, you
27:27
Speaker 1: mentioned Northwestern, and you mentioned Iowa. Northwestern is one of
27:32
Speaker 1: those teams that always fascinates people and always fascinates me
27:36
Speaker 1: because they are so inconsistent. And tell me about your
27:42
Speaker 1: thoughts on Northwestern right now in the West, especially as
27:45
Speaker 1: they match up against Iowa and Wisconsin. Yeah, and as
27:49
Speaker 1: you touch on, this is a Northwestern team that can
27:51
Speaker 1: probably way Pat Fitzgerald coaches. He's a great underdog coach.
27:55
Speaker 1: I mean, his teams have pulled a ton of upsets
27:58
Speaker 1: in recent years, but so and had a great favorite.
28:01
Speaker 1: His teams have been upset quite a bit. You can
28:03
Speaker 1: almost make your money just playing the underdog in Northwestern games.
28:06
Speaker 1: But when I look at Northwestern this year, I think
28:09
Speaker 1: your wild card factor is going to come down to
28:10
Speaker 1: the quarterback. Hunter Johnson comes in. He was my number
28:13
Speaker 1: one rate of quarterback when he signed at Clemson, he
28:17
Speaker 1: is now here at Northwestern. I think he could come
28:19
Speaker 1: in and do even better than when Clayton Thorson did
28:21
Speaker 1: last year. Remember Thorson only had a seventeen fifteen ratio.
28:25
Speaker 1: They've got a fairly deep backfield Isaiah Bowser, Mowten, and Anderson.
28:28
Speaker 1: There offensive lines of question mark. They only have two
28:31
Speaker 1: starters back, but defensively they got the brand, They've got
28:33
Speaker 1: the names for one. Scaziano and Patti Fisher are both
28:37
Speaker 1: back up front on the defensive front seven. The secondary
28:40
Speaker 1: is my question mark there. And then you look at
28:41
Speaker 1: their schedule this year. They're gonna be an underdog at
28:44
Speaker 1: Stanford home against Michigan State, at Wisconsin, at Nebraska home
28:49
Speaker 1: to Ohio State, and at Indiana. But nobody expected him
28:52
Speaker 1: to win the Big Ten West last year, and yet
28:54
Speaker 1: they want it by two games. So they're one of
28:56
Speaker 1: those teams that on paper, they look like they should
28:59
Speaker 1: win six game games this year. Now the question is
29:01
Speaker 1: will they win just six games or will Pat Fitzgerald
29:04
Speaker 1: do what Path Fitzgerald normally does. It's a great play
29:07
Speaker 1: you make about them being an underdog team. They're always
29:11
Speaker 1: the team that is more fun to root for when
29:14
Speaker 1: they are an underdog than when they're a favorite. You know,
29:16
Speaker 1: last year chat as a dog, Northwestern went six oh
29:21
Speaker 1: and one against the spread as a favorite oh and five.
29:26
Speaker 1: There's a little bit of a trend and that's pretty
29:28
Speaker 1: much been the m O for Path Fitzgerald since he
29:30
Speaker 1: took over. God, that's fascinating that he is that bad
29:36
Speaker 1: of a favorite coach. Yeah, he got, he got. He
29:39
Speaker 1: had a couple of years where he did okay as
29:41
Speaker 1: a favorite. But the general thing is it's always us
29:43
Speaker 1: against the world philosophy for Path Fitzgerald. That works when
29:46
Speaker 1: you're the underdog doesn't work quite so much when you're
29:48
Speaker 1: the favorite. Alright, so let's let's think about that. That's
29:51
Speaker 1: an interesting thread to follow for a second. How do
29:55
Speaker 1: you think about coaches when it comes to hand capping
30:01
Speaker 1: in college football? You know, I think the coach is
30:04
Speaker 1: a big part of the game, and some coaches thrive
30:07
Speaker 1: you know at home and maybe not so much on
30:09
Speaker 1: the road. Some coaches thrive as a dog, not as
30:13
Speaker 1: a favorite, and then there are some that like the
30:14
Speaker 1: crush opponents when they're in the favorites role. But uh,
30:17
Speaker 1: I think we find more head coaches do well like
30:20
Speaker 1: Tom Herman of Texas for example, He's another one that's
30:23
Speaker 1: just like uh Path Fitzgerald. Tom Herman the Texas is
30:26
Speaker 1: one of the best underdog coaches out there. In fact,
30:29
Speaker 1: Texas usually pulls upsets when in the underdog role. You
30:33
Speaker 1: look at his two years as Texas, he is four
30:35
Speaker 1: and one as an underdog, but as a home favorite
30:38
Speaker 1: he's just three and seven. And that plays back to
30:40
Speaker 1: his days at Houston when he was a poor home
30:43
Speaker 1: favorite but an amazing dog and pulling upsets of ranked
30:46
Speaker 1: teams on a regular basis. So once again with Tom Herman,
30:49
Speaker 1: and I think this is going to change in Texas eventually,
30:51
Speaker 1: when he gets the talent where it's no longer being
30:53
Speaker 1: in that underdog role coming in all of a sudden
30:56
Speaker 1: they turned into a favorite role. I think he'll become
30:58
Speaker 1: a better favorite head coach down the road. But right now,
31:01
Speaker 1: Tom Herman does not do well as a home favorite,
31:04
Speaker 1: but as great as an underdog. That doesn't bode well.
31:07
Speaker 1: I actually disagree with you because I think that doesn't
31:09
Speaker 1: bode well for Tom Herman, that he's always able to
31:14
Speaker 1: to coach up his team and get them excited and
31:17
Speaker 1: come up with a game plan against superior talent. But
31:20
Speaker 1: he's at a place where he's always going to have
31:23
Speaker 1: superior talent in the long run, as long as he
31:26
Speaker 1: lasts that long, and to not be able to find
31:29
Speaker 1: ways to utilize that or to outgame plan against the
31:32
Speaker 1: people who are then chasing him. You know, in this world, like,
31:35
Speaker 1: there are people who are great at being chased, and
31:37
Speaker 1: there are people who are great at being on top,
31:38
Speaker 1: And like, that's an interesting scenario for a lot of
31:42
Speaker 1: coaches who step up from mid tier programs into high
31:46
Speaker 1: tier programs. As far as betters are concerned, he's a
31:49
Speaker 1: really fascinating case study. Yeah, he definitely isn't you know.
31:54
Speaker 1: The one thing I think will improve for him, though,
31:57
Speaker 1: is the fact that when he was at Houston and
31:59
Speaker 1: when he was here at Texas his first couple of years,
32:02
Speaker 1: I personally don't think Charlie Strong did a tremendous job recruiting.
32:05
Speaker 1: I don't know if he had Texas talent his first
32:07
Speaker 1: couple of years. You look at their defense this year,
32:10
Speaker 1: they only have through returning starters. But when I go
32:12
Speaker 1: player for player down the line on their defense, I
32:15
Speaker 1: think they probably have more athletic talent defensively than they
32:18
Speaker 1: had last year or the year before, and once Tom
32:22
Speaker 1: Herman starts getting those athletes where maybe he'll do better
32:25
Speaker 1: as a favorite, once he has the players that could
32:27
Speaker 1: be in the role of favorites. Maybe he's been favored
32:30
Speaker 1: in the past because of the upsets he's pulled, not
32:33
Speaker 1: necessarily because of the talent he was rolling out of
32:34
Speaker 1: the field. All right, So you mentioned Nebraska is your
32:37
Speaker 1: most improved and for years this has been a fill
32:40
Speaker 1: steel staple like you are able to identify. You mentioned
32:43
Speaker 1: Florida this past year. A couple of years ago, you
32:45
Speaker 1: had Michigan in there. If you were thinking about your
32:49
Speaker 1: other most improved teams either probably teams that are going
32:53
Speaker 1: to have value when it comes to season win totals. Uh,
32:56
Speaker 1: give me your other most improved teams. Let me give
33:00
Speaker 1: you a couple of them out of the box, and uh,
33:02
Speaker 1: one of them is going to be Florida Atlantic. And
33:05
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic as a team had a bad year last year,
33:08
Speaker 1: but Lane Kiffin still there. I like the overall talent
33:11
Speaker 1: that they have, and they're playing in a division where
33:14
Speaker 1: it's easier They're playing in a conference where the c
33:17
Speaker 1: USA Conference, where it's easier to move from the bottom
33:20
Speaker 1: of the top they were. They sort of bottom out
33:22
Speaker 1: last year at five and seven. Remember how dominant they
33:24
Speaker 1: were down the stretch in two thousand and seventeen. I
33:28
Speaker 1: think they're going to have a big improvement. But a
33:30
Speaker 1: couple of teams I'm really high on this year. Florida
33:33
Speaker 1: State my number three most improved team. Now, Florida States
33:36
Speaker 1: had two bad years in a row. They basically had
33:38
Speaker 1: to reschedule the game just to get to a Bowl
33:40
Speaker 1: two years ago, and then last year had their first
33:43
Speaker 1: losing season since nineteen seventy six. Been a long time
33:46
Speaker 1: now Willie Tagger to be in the hot seat. When
33:48
Speaker 1: I talked to Coach Tagger, and here's here's probably an
33:50
Speaker 1: interesting point for you with the coaches conversations, Chad. You know,
33:53
Speaker 1: Coach Tagger told me that he felt the players at
33:55
Speaker 1: Florida State were a little hurt by jimbo Fisher going
33:59
Speaker 1: to what they received as a lateral job Florida State
34:01
Speaker 1: to Texas A and M, and that that hurt the
34:04
Speaker 1: transition a little bit last year because the players didn't
34:07
Speaker 1: really understand, hey, he's leaving. But now this year, all
34:10
Speaker 1: the players he feels are bought into the program. They
34:12
Speaker 1: are a pretty deep team. When you look at Florida State,
34:14
Speaker 1: they do go too to three deep in most positions.
34:17
Speaker 1: They look good getting off the bus. I think we're
34:18
Speaker 1: going to see Florida State be a much improved team
34:20
Speaker 1: this year, and they don't have to go through the
34:22
Speaker 1: shock factor of their longtime head coach leaving for perhaps
34:26
Speaker 1: what what the Florida State players thought was a lateral
34:29
Speaker 1: move job then the number four team, how about Virginia
34:32
Speaker 1: Tech and hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on,
34:34
Speaker 1: go ahead, point of order, point of order. Uh, Florida State,
34:39
Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought them up so uh. The Action
34:42
Speaker 1: Network has a college football podcast starring Colin Wilson and
34:46
Speaker 1: Stucky and they did their a SEC preview. Everyone should
34:49
Speaker 1: go listen to it. It's brilliant. Colin Wilson, who was
34:53
Speaker 1: our lead college football analyst, is all in on Florida
34:56
Speaker 1: State as you are. He thinks this could be a
34:59
Speaker 1: ten team, and he looks at their defense and how
35:02
Speaker 1: they've significantly improved every year. And one mate, one note
35:06
Speaker 1: he made on the podcast, which I thought was fascinating,
35:08
Speaker 1: was that Florida State succumbed to bad field position last
35:12
Speaker 1: year that their offense could not do anything. Their offensive
35:15
Speaker 1: line could not get a push, and so the defense
35:18
Speaker 1: was constantly put in a bad position as far as
35:21
Speaker 1: where the other team was lining up in the field
35:23
Speaker 1: when they got the ball back. Um, how does Florida
35:27
Speaker 1: State improve that new quarterback? Offensive line is still struggling.
35:32
Speaker 1: Tell me why you see improvement in Florida State other
35:35
Speaker 1: than sort of Willie Taggert having a second year and
35:37
Speaker 1: the players mentally being in a better place. Yeah. I
35:40
Speaker 1: agree that the defense was better than the yards per game,
35:43
Speaker 1: and that's sort of collapsed at the end of the year.
35:45
Speaker 1: Last year. You know, they gave up fifty nine that
35:47
Speaker 1: climbs on forty seven ends he stay once the season
35:51
Speaker 1: had lost hope, there's their season sort of spiraled at
35:54
Speaker 1: the end. Uh. Now, the offensive line has been a
35:56
Speaker 1: problem for five years, but they figured to be better
35:59
Speaker 1: on the offense of line second year of the blocking schemes.
36:01
Speaker 1: And they do have the skill players. I mean Terry
36:04
Speaker 1: a wide receiver, mckittie at tight end, Matthews a receiver.
36:07
Speaker 1: You look at their backfield and and when I talked
36:09
Speaker 1: to coach Taggard last spring and was going over the team,
36:12
Speaker 1: He said, Phil watch Kalin Labourne at running back. This
36:15
Speaker 1: guy could emerge. I know we've got running backs coming back,
36:18
Speaker 1: but he could be in for a big year. And
36:19
Speaker 1: then Labourne gets injured, I think it was the first
36:22
Speaker 1: game of the season, was out for the year. Well,
36:24
Speaker 1: Labourne's back acres back, Grant Grant back, so they are
36:27
Speaker 1: loaded in the backfield. And I'm gonna agree with that assessment.
36:30
Speaker 1: I think with a little bit better offensive play, that
36:34
Speaker 1: defense could very well be dominant this season. And in fact,
36:37
Speaker 1: I think they were a top twenty defense despite the
36:39
Speaker 1: fact they gave up thirty one point five points per
36:41
Speaker 1: game last year. This year, my computers called for him
36:44
Speaker 1: to give up just twenty two points per game. That's
36:46
Speaker 1: an improvement of nine points per game and should be
36:50
Speaker 1: one of the larger improvements in college football. Uh. Colin
36:54
Speaker 1: Wilson went so fast to say he could see Florida
36:58
Speaker 1: State being a crazy to one long shot to make
37:02
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Uh, you know, sixty five to one. I'd
37:07
Speaker 1: like to play roulette chat. So I'm always wanted to
37:09
Speaker 1: throw a few bucks on the number straight on because
37:12
Speaker 1: it could hit. Uh it, it'd be worth it. I mean,
37:14
Speaker 1: you know, if they played Clemson and beat him on
37:16
Speaker 1: the road, then they'd be right there and with the
37:18
Speaker 1: shot to get there. But it's just worth a roulette chip.
37:21
Speaker 1: That's about it, all right. So you're gonna say, Virginia Tech,
37:24
Speaker 1: I didn't I cut you off there, and I I
37:26
Speaker 1: wouldn't even say that I didn't mean to cut you off.
37:28
Speaker 1: I deliberately cut you off. I love it and sometimes
37:32
Speaker 1: I need to be cut off. Chat tell me about it.
37:34
Speaker 1: Tell me it's interesting you're going to a CEC teams
37:37
Speaker 1: for improvement. Tell me about forgetting Tech. I'll let me
37:40
Speaker 1: tell you. And now it's the conversation I have with
37:42
Speaker 1: their defense coordinator Bud Foster last year and going over
37:46
Speaker 1: the defense with them. Uh. Now, you know, Budd Foster
37:49
Speaker 1: is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game,
37:51
Speaker 1: and naturally you expect Virginia Tech defense to be great
37:55
Speaker 1: every year. Well, we get to the end of the conversation,
37:57
Speaker 1: I'm like, coach. You know a lot of coaches out there,
38:00
Speaker 1: you know, like Flack over in Minnesota. We're a young team.
38:03
Speaker 1: We're a young team. They all say they're a young team.
38:06
Speaker 1: But generally you're going to have six underclassman because you
38:09
Speaker 1: signed freshman, do you have a redshirt freshman class, sophomore class,
38:13
Speaker 1: juniors and seniors. And there's attrition at the top classes,
38:15
Speaker 1: so most teams are six underclassman. But talking to coach
38:19
Speaker 1: Foster last year, we got the end a conversation they
38:21
Speaker 1: go coach. Every coach out there says they're young, but
38:23
Speaker 1: you are young and you can't afford to lose anybody.
38:26
Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, as long as we keep our front
38:28
Speaker 1: front personnel, the starters, okay, we'll be okay. And then
38:31
Speaker 1: they lost two or three players start projected starters over
38:34
Speaker 1: the summer, and then they lost another two players in
38:37
Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks of the season. And what happened.
38:39
Speaker 1: Virginia Texas defense was not very Bud Foster is. Last
38:43
Speaker 1: year they gave a four thirty nine yards per game
38:46
Speaker 1: and thirty one points per game last year. Now this year,
38:49
Speaker 1: that defense has ten returning starters coming back, so they're
38:52
Speaker 1: gonna be much stronger on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively,
38:56
Speaker 1: I like what I saw to Ryan Willis. He's a
38:58
Speaker 1: big quarterback. He's six four two three. He took over
39:01
Speaker 1: mid season last year. He's a Kansas transfer. Uh, They've
39:04
Speaker 1: got a good offensive line in front of him. I
39:06
Speaker 1: think the offense will be fine. And then you look
39:07
Speaker 1: at their schedule this year. You know, the Boston College game,
39:10
Speaker 1: I think could be pivotal right out of the box.
39:12
Speaker 1: If they win that game, you're gonna see a team
39:14
Speaker 1: playing with a lot more confidence. They do have to
39:16
Speaker 1: play at Miami and at Order Dame, but they get
39:19
Speaker 1: most of the other toughest opponents at home. You know,
39:21
Speaker 1: a couple of their road games this year, Georgia Tech
39:23
Speaker 1: is a road game, Boston College of road game fall
39:25
Speaker 1: into the winnable category. So I've got Vtique contending with
39:29
Speaker 1: Miami in the A C C Coastal and Virginia Texts
39:32
Speaker 1: another one of those teams off a rare losing season
39:35
Speaker 1: that usually bounce back and bounce back big. This is
39:39
Speaker 1: an interesting question, if I do say so myself, A
39:42
Speaker 1: lot of a lot a lot of people will say, like,
39:44
Speaker 1: what are the stats that you look at most when
39:47
Speaker 1: trying to power rank a team for the next year.
39:50
Speaker 1: And you mentioned Virginia Tech defense has ten returning starters,
39:54
Speaker 1: but you also mentioned they gave a hundred thirty nine
39:58
Speaker 1: yards a year last per game last year. So why
40:01
Speaker 1: is it that having these players who did not play
40:04
Speaker 1: particularly well returning is a value in terms of Virginia
40:09
Speaker 1: Tech potentially improving. Yeah, in this case, I mean, just
40:12
Speaker 1: like I said, going through and when you go through
40:14
Speaker 1: a position by position with a coach like I do
40:17
Speaker 1: you really get a good feel for what the team is.
40:20
Speaker 1: And this was an inexperienced squad and his basic thing
40:22
Speaker 1: last year was, you know, we'd get to the player like, hey,
40:25
Speaker 1: I like the size, I like the speed, but this
40:28
Speaker 1: guy just hasn't seen the field. He needs to gain
40:31
Speaker 1: some experience. I like the size, like the speed, but
40:34
Speaker 1: this kid just hasn't seen the field. And that was
40:36
Speaker 1: a refrain from the start of the first player on
40:39
Speaker 1: the defensive line to the last player of the secondary.
40:42
Speaker 1: Then to lose the five players that they did was huge.
40:44
Speaker 1: They just were extremely an extremely green team last year.
40:48
Speaker 1: But he did like the talent and we talked even
40:51
Speaker 1: last year when we were having the conversation that this
40:53
Speaker 1: year's defense would be much better because they had the size,
40:56
Speaker 1: they had the speed, but they would now be experienced.
40:59
Speaker 1: So I think that's a huge factor as long as
41:01
Speaker 1: the talents there, and the talent was there. I remember
41:03
Speaker 1: Budd Foster's defenses. They were on a lot of stunts
41:06
Speaker 1: and a lot of blitz is. And when you have
41:07
Speaker 1: a young team, one player out of place can sometimes
41:10
Speaker 1: result in a big play for a touchdown, whereas when
41:12
Speaker 1: that player has experienced all of a sudden that door
41:15
Speaker 1: closes and they stopped the play. Bud Foster leaving at
41:21
Speaker 1: the end of this year, how to hear about that?
41:24
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the best defensive coordinators out there.
41:27
Speaker 1: I love the whole lunch lunch bucket thing, and uh
41:31
Speaker 1: just it's a big loss for college football. And you know,
41:34
Speaker 1: that was probably the best move that Justin Plenty made
41:36
Speaker 1: when he took over, because generally when a first year
41:39
Speaker 1: head coach takes over a team, he's got a learning curve.
41:41
Speaker 1: He's gotta learn the player's strength and weaknesses. Players have
41:44
Speaker 1: to learn new systems. He kept Bud Foster, so there
41:46
Speaker 1: was no problem with the defense in his first couple
41:49
Speaker 1: of years at the Helm and all. He had to
41:51
Speaker 1: do his work on the offense. But I'm gonna miss
41:54
Speaker 1: coach Foster, alright, So we got five more minutes. There
41:59
Speaker 1: happen to be four teams they get to make the playoff.
42:01
Speaker 1: Two teams they get to play a championship and one
42:04
Speaker 1: team that gets to win. Give me your four two
42:07
Speaker 1: in your one. Uh. Naturally, Alabama and Clumps are there.
42:11
Speaker 1: Clumps will be a seven team point favorite in every
42:13
Speaker 1: game this year. Alabama waill be a double digit favorite
42:16
Speaker 1: in every game. Both teams are gonna have unstoppable offenses.
42:19
Speaker 1: The other two teams that won with I went with Georgia. UH.
42:22
Speaker 1: Georgia being a team that you know, the last two
42:24
Speaker 1: years when they played Alabama, they've trailed for a grand
42:27
Speaker 1: total of one minute in four seconds. Other than that,
42:30
Speaker 1: they've either been tied or ahead in the games. UH
42:33
Speaker 1: and could easily have beat Obama both years. They're an
42:35
Speaker 1: even better team this year with swift of running back
42:38
Speaker 1: from a QB. And I've got the favorite in all
42:41
Speaker 1: twelve games this year. And then the other one going
42:43
Speaker 1: on the box here chet. You know, the last eleven years,
42:46
Speaker 1: I've picked Ohio State higher than Michigan. UH. Eleven straight years.
42:50
Speaker 1: I've only been wrong once. Ten of the years Ohio
42:52
Speaker 1: States finished higher. This year, I'm taking Michigan, and Michigan's
42:55
Speaker 1: got the defense with Don Brown, They've got the quarterback
42:58
Speaker 1: with Say Patterson who's now in the spread offense, which
43:01
Speaker 1: I think is a big plus. They've got four offensive
43:03
Speaker 1: lineman who are potential All Americans and have got a
43:05
Speaker 1: great special teams. Plus they have the schedule where Notre Dame,
43:08
Speaker 1: Michigan State, in Ohio State are all at home, so
43:10
Speaker 1: I think Michigan can make the playoffs this year. Then naturally,
43:14
Speaker 1: for the two, I'm gonna have to go with the
43:15
Speaker 1: big boys. I'd love to go out of the box
43:17
Speaker 1: and pick somebody else, but Alabama and Clemson just loaded
43:21
Speaker 1: and for the championship game this year, I'm given a
43:24
Speaker 1: slight edge to Alabama for these factors. I think both
43:27
Speaker 1: they have the number one, number two offense. You can
43:29
Speaker 1: put Clemson one, you can put Alabama one. They're going
43:31
Speaker 1: to both be within a point of each other offensively. Defensively,
43:34
Speaker 1: last year, Bama only had three returning starters. This year
43:37
Speaker 1: they have six. So when you look at what Clemson
43:40
Speaker 1: lost on that d line, three first round draft picks
43:43
Speaker 1: in a third round draft pick, I give Alabama slight
43:45
Speaker 1: edge defensively. I give Alabama a slight edge on special teams.
43:49
Speaker 1: And then the final factor, Clemson's gonna enter the season
43:52
Speaker 1: number one. They're gonna blow out all other opponents, are
43:54
Speaker 1: gonna be number one into the playoffs. Do you know
43:57
Speaker 1: that in the air four Meetings Chat, the number one
43:59
Speaker 1: team has actually lost all four times. So that's got
44:03
Speaker 1: to be the Alabama's advantage once again in the title
44:06
Speaker 1: game and throwing that forty four to sixteen chip on
44:09
Speaker 1: their shoulder. Last year in Alabama entered the playoff, there
44:12
Speaker 1: was talking is this the greatest team of all time?
44:14
Speaker 1: And I think the players brought into it this year
44:16
Speaker 1: the line of the playoff and I think Nick sab
44:18
Speaker 1: and I'll just say, you know what, forty four to sixteen,
44:21
Speaker 1: get your heads in in gear, and I think we're
44:23
Speaker 1: going to see Alabama repeat our return, I should say,
44:26
Speaker 1: as national champs this year. So I feel like I
44:29
Speaker 1: missed one. Wait, you said Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Georgia, Georgia.
44:34
Speaker 1: That's right, Georgia, Georgia. I totally forgot about Georgia. You
44:37
Speaker 1: had that great stat that Georgia was only down for
44:39
Speaker 1: a minute four against Alabama in their games. Um, wow,
44:46
Speaker 1: Alabama Clemson again, You've got Alabama running. You know the
44:50
Speaker 1: good news chat? If you're rooting, So it's not Alabama Clemson.
44:54
Speaker 1: You know, last year when when Clemson hosted Syracuse, they
44:57
Speaker 1: were a four touchdown favorite, they actually trail by two
45:00
Speaker 1: scores in the fourth quarter. They need a third string
45:03
Speaker 1: quarterback to complete a fourth down, fourth and ten pass
45:06
Speaker 1: to keep their final scoring drive alive. Had they lost
45:08
Speaker 1: that game, Syracuse would have been seven and one. They
45:11
Speaker 1: would have been seven and one in the a c C.
45:14
Speaker 1: Syracuse would have been in the a SEC title game
45:16
Speaker 1: and clump somebody to miss the playoffs last year. I
45:18
Speaker 1: remember watching that game. That was a great game, yeah,
45:22
Speaker 1: no doubt, and like I said, would have been some
45:25
Speaker 1: of Compson where to miss the playoffs last year. Listen,
45:29
Speaker 1: this is why they play the games, Phil. It can't
45:31
Speaker 1: just be what you say in your magazine is going
45:32
Speaker 1: to happen. They gotta get on the field. And I
45:37
Speaker 1: love that aspect. And the beautiful thing about college football
45:40
Speaker 1: chats with the four team playoffs, every weekend is important.
45:43
Speaker 1: There are no no gimmes. You can't you can not
45:45
Speaker 1: afford to slip up. Every weekend is a playoffs, Phil.
45:49
Speaker 1: That's right, all right, everybody go to Phil Steel dot com.
45:53
Speaker 1: By this magazine. You need to read it. If you're
45:56
Speaker 1: gonna do anything related to college football this year, watch pick, rank, argue, debate.
46:03
Speaker 1: I know every single person in media is reading this
46:05
Speaker 1: magazine right now to get ready for college football. You
46:08
Speaker 1: should too, all right. I want to thank my guest
46:11
Speaker 1: Phil Steel for coming on the Favorites from the Action Network,
46:15
Speaker 1: and of course Bob Scucci, book maker to the world.
46:20
Speaker 1: He will be back with us all season and long.
46:23
Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites from the Action Network. I
46:26
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Download from Apple, podcasts from radio dot Com,
46:30
Speaker 1: slash the Action Network. Wherever you get your podcasts, Subscribe, unsubscribe,
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Speaker 1: rate review, Tell your friends until next time. I Love you,