Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Transcript

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: Clear for lift-up. What is going on, everybody? We are
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: back talking some UFC fight night at the Apex 12
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: fight card. Eight of the 12 fights are expected to finish,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: and we have a lot of big inside the distance props.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Minus 400, minus 650, minus 650, minus 550. Excuse me.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: We also have a very good and tough main event
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: to fade this week, unlike last week. Mid-tier fight, Brendan Allen,
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Christian Leroy Duncan. I'm excited for this card. I think
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: there's going to be some bangers. Man, I think there's
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: so many low-level fights, but it feels like the U.S.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: All right, Nico Price. When should Nico Price ever be
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: plus 128? Gerald Mearshart, only plus 220. Alan Fry, plus 265.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: It is a very interesting card. I think it's actually
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: a 12 fights is mediocre, but if I know it's
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: a 12-fight card when we compare them to all 12-fight cards,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: I actually think it is a good DFS card. So
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to break this one down. As always, joined
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: by my man, Big Marley. How are we doing today?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Hey, not too bad.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, since you're excited about it, it makes me
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: more excited about it. But I'm really not too pumped
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: about this card. I mean, no real big names. I
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: think the main event's solid. But aside from that, man,
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: it's hard to get pumped about this fight, especially 12
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: fights on a DFS card. So I'm going to need
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: DFS to make this one exciting for me. Because if
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: I have no shot, there's no way I'm just going
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: to be watching this whole card.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair. I more than likely will not be
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: watching The whole card either. But for DFS, I have
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: a plan of attack this week. So when we talk
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: through these fights, I'll say it at some point throughout.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: But you can always find all of our content over
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: at Shippenation.com. The stone is completed. Like the projections, the ownership,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: what they weigh in at. It's all color-coded. On Friday,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: I'll actually head over to our Shippenation website real quick. Again,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: you can get in bottom left, join the nation. So
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: many sports going on right now. college football, NFL, PGA, MMA, NASCAR,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: all the good stuff. So if you do play multiple sports,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I think giving us a try, whether it's the five
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: days for $ 19, whether it's the core hundred for $ 99
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: a month, the starter part for $ 149 a month with
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: DFS mastermind. Again, this gets you all the sports projections,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: ownership starter does get you a more 400 more lineups
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: to build, get you contest flashback to review what the
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: pros are doing, get you another set of ownership. If
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: you are just playing sports, MMA though, single sport, far right. MMA,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: you can get in for $ 29 a month and just
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: $ 20 more with Sabresim if you are looking for that.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: If you sign up for any of these packages, they
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: all do come with the Discord. I highly recommend you
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: do join the Discord. Definitely a big piece of our product.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: If I see big line movements or any changes, I'm
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: always taking the Discord on Saturday. Again, all of our
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: MMA content, projections, ownership, the Slate Station where every fight's
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: broken down, the Stone, of course, the Stone 2.0, Laudy,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: you hand-billed. All of our content is up on Friday.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: How many fights does Strickland have left on his contract?
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: I actually don't know that answer. I see everything that's
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: going on right now, but I don't know the answer.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Do you know, Big Marley?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Nah, no idea.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting stuff, though, for sure. But, I mean, yeah,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: eventually maybe the UFC will have to pay their fighters
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: a little better. Otherwise, they'll just maybe be losing some.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: But I don't really think the UFC cares. Enough people
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: want to fight in the greatest promotions. at least the
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: biggest promotion. And, yeah, they have great fights every single week.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: So it'll be interesting to see how that all goes down.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: But we're not worried about that. Again, 12 fights. Again,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: I've talked about my broad slate. A very good main
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: event that's hard to ignore. Clash of Styles, minus 190
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: to finish. Four, one, two, three, four fights, minus 400
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: or greater to finish. Those are definitely some good fights
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: to target. No favorite above minus 350 overall. on this
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: card right now as well. RJ Harris is minus 350.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: He's the biggest favorite currently, but because I say in
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: 12 fights is just okay. The skill level on this card,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: not great, but eight of the 12 expected to finish
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: means violence. No favorite above minus 350 means we could
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: see plenty of dogs barking on this card, which means
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: you can leave money. And that is one way I'm
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: going to approach this card is leaving some money. And
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: then I'll say my other favorite way to go about
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: it in a little bit. But any broad slate for
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: you before we go fight by fight?
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: No, I know I'm going to be probably all in
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: on that main event. I got some other five stars
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: as well, but I think the main event is the
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: only all in for me. And then there's a handful
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: of fights on this card I don't even like. So
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: I just kind of think that might lead to a
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: lot of ownership being condensed into what I do like.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: And I'm going to have to figure out ways.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: To get different.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think it's going to be a pretty
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: chalky card, a condensed card. Again, you can find all
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: of our ownership up on the site tomorrow. But let's
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: get right into it. Bottom to top, as always, we're
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: going to start with the most likely fight to go
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: the distance on the card in the mid-tier. Melissa Gatto,
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: minus 115. Ernesta Karaskate, minus 101. Plus 250 for this
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: fight to finish. Gatto, plus 335 inside the distance. Karaskate,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: plus 650. I mean, I'll throw it to you right away.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Most likely fight to go the distance, a mid-tier fight,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: pretty much a coin flip fight. You're parlaying a lot
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: of things in this one to be optimal, but both
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: will be low owned. Any case you can make for
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: either girl.
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: So my case is ownership only.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Don't really like the fight at all. I think that
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Karakati is the.
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: Better, higher volume striker, really just better because of her
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: pace on the feet. Gato has some power. She's a
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: decent striker. I'd say she's more well-rounded, but the biggest
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: advantage in this fight would be Gato's ground game. If
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: she could get it there or if she's even willing
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: to get it there. I don't even know if I
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: trust her at this point, but when I did this fight,
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: she was minus 162.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Now it's a pick them fight.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: So I think all the ownership, I don't really think
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: there's going to be ownership on this fight, but I
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: think it would be all on the Kara Katie side.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: And I do think she's live to win the fight,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: score close to 10X, win with some decent volume on
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: the feet. But if anyone's going to win this fight
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: in the first round, I think it would be Gato.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: And I think the ownership won't be there because the
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: line's moving against her. She's getting up there. I mean, well,
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: she's only 30 years. I would have thought she was
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: older than 30, to be honest. But she seems like
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: she's getting up there in age. She just doesn't seem
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: like she's as willing to grapple as I would like
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: her to be. But she is a really good grappler.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: I think if she was willing to grapple, she could
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: rack up, you know, seven plus minutes of control time,
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: multiple takedowns, score decent in a decision. But she has
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: the most, in my opinion, round one equity. So if
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: I was going to use this fight, it's going to
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: be Gato.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: I agree with that. I do not want to really
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: use this fight. But if I do and I'm going
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: to keep Gato in the pool, she is my preferred
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: play for sure. She's plus 350 or plus 335 inside
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: the distance where Karis Gay Day is plus 650. And again,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: I know Karis Keita is 7,900. But as a primary striker,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: and again, no favorite is above minus 350 on this card.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Dogs will be barking. I think there are a lot
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: of more higher upside dogs. And 7,900 isn't even a
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: cheap price tag. It's kind of right by the Leroy Duncan,
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Brendan Allen, Francisco Prado I like more. But for Gato,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: she should try and wrestle in this fight. She's a
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: much better grappler, better inside the distance prop. And yeah,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: plus 335 to finish. 23%, that is. I think she's
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: going to probably be somewhere around like the 15% mark.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: So when her inside the distance is higher than her ownership,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: and then you bring in the consideration that she might wrestle,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: I think she's a fine pivot in the mid-tier. But
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: one of the worst fights to target on the card.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Got to or pass for me. More likely I'm going
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: to pass. All right, let's get to probably the other
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: worst fight on the card. This is one of the
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: most likely fights To go the distance also, right in
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: the mid-tier, another woman's fight. Elise Pereira, minus 140. Daria Zelenikova,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: plus 120. This fight is plus 150 to finish. Pereira,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: plus 280 inside the distance. Zelenikova, plus 410. I'm not
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: playing this fight. I think Gato's my favorite. If I
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: had to rank all four of these fighters, Gato would
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: be the one I'd have the most interest in, and
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: I still don't love it. I mean, Pereira is plus
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: 280 inside the distance, which isn't crazy, but over with
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: two and a half in this fight, minus 200. Like, man,
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: if this fight's going to go over two and a half,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: minus 200, neither of these girls are getting there. They
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: don't wrestle. They just strike. 8,400, 7,800. Again, eight of
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: the 12 fights are expected to finish on the card.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: This is right by that main event. I'm not doing it.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: Game theory only, ownership only. Again, I'll use Gato for that.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: And I have some other spicy stuff that we'll get
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: to a little later, so. I'm out on this fight.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: I think we have two of the worst fights to
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: start off the card. What do you think?
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, same thing. Same thing, but opposite, I guess. I
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: really don't want to target this fight. I think Pereira
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: is the one with the round one equity.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: She is the.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Fighter with more power, the better athlete of the two.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: But I don't think she's going to be a high
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: volume striker. I really don't look, or I don't think
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: she looks for takedowns at all. If either of the
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: two were to look for takedowns, I think it would
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: be Zalesnikova. I also like Zalesnikova to be the overall
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: minute winner over 15 minutes. Cause I expect a striking
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: match here. And I, If she's going to be the
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: more likely wrestler, I think that would help her as well.
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: So I want to fade the round one equity in Pereira.
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: The line's been moving in her favor. I would rather
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: take the point fighter in Zalesnikova, the more experienced fighter
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: of the two. If she doesn't get knocked out or
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: knocked down, I think she's just going to win minutes
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: in this one. And if she does knock in, let's
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: say she gets two or three takedowns, I think she
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: would score over 10 X. If there's no takedowns in
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: the entire fight, I think it would be really tough
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: for her to score over 10 X. Uh, but she
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: took down, um, uh, she just fought last week. Uh, Perez, uh, the,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: the twerker girl.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: She took Eileen Perez.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah. She took her down when they fought.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: So I think if she could take down Perez, there's
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: going to be no problems taking down prayer. If she
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: wanted to go that route, And I think it would
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: be smart to go that route against an inexperienced fighter.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: So, I don't know. I'm kind of dogger pass on
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: this one with pass being the best option.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, man, I would be surprised if she wrestled. But, yeah,
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: you do make a solid point there. So, if you
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: had to rank the girls in these first four fights,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: how would you have your ranking?
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: So, for me, I'm going to go Gato, Zalesnikova, Pereira, Karakady.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: All right. I'm going Gato. And then it's tough. I
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: don't have the other three as fades. Gato, Zelenikova, Pereira, Karaskete,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: I guess. But yeah, these first four fights are these
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: first four fighters. The first two fights are not good
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: for DFS. But with that being said, if any of
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: them are optimal, you have a lot better chance at
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: lower dupes than if both these fights bust because ownership
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: will be low on all four.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: You're the line movement guy.
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: You don't really care that Karakati is now like damn
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: near the favorite when she was plus 136 when I
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: was doing it.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, she's plus 650 inside the distance. Like I,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: even if she wins, like I, at 7,900, I think
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: we need 90 plus this week. Eight of these 12
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: fights are expected to finish. And I think these dogs
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: will be barking. So, you know, we're going to get
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: in this next fight and I'll just say my thing
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: right now. My big stance this week is GM three Ribeiro,
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Alan Frye. I want to be overweight on all three.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: The fights are minus 400 to finish, minus 650 to finish,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: minus 550 to finish. If you parlay Julius Walker, Felipe Franco,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: and RJ Harris, those three favorites, it's plus 122 on DraftKings.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: So what DraftKings is saying, one of them is going
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: to lose more times than not. And if any of
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: them lose, I think their opponents will score very well
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: and be optimal. So I'm on the Stars and Scrubs build.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: I'm going main event, probably 100% main events. And then
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: I'd prefer the scrubs and not play like any Karaskate team.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: I'll drop down to Alan Fry. And I just left
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: 800 and I gained upside. I lost money line value
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: to get unique. So I do not care about the
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: line movement in these mid-tier fights. I think this is
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: an upside card, even with 12 fights. And that's my
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: reason for not caring about Karaskate. But yeah, plus 650
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: inside the distance is just not going to cut it
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: for me. But yeah, so we got right into this
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: next fight. RJ Harris minus 350, biggest favorite on the card.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Alan Fry plus 284, minus 400 for this fight to finish.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Harris minus 185 inside the distance. Fry plus 335. Harrison
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: round one plus 175. So yeah, you're probably wondering why
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: is RJ Harris the third most expensive fighter on the card,
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: but the biggest favorite. He opened minus 300. Three minutes
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: later was minus 220. And then ever since then, he
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: has taken a lot of money. Again, I already tipped
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: my hand. I like Franco. I like Harris. I like
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: Julius Walker, all the big favorites in these fights. But
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: I also really like the underdogs. I think they're all
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: going to be under-owned. When Alan Fry wins this fight,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: I don't see how he doesn't score like 80-plus or 85-plus.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: This fight's minus 400 to finish. Under one and a
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: half is a coin flip. So that's what I'm doing
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: this week. I'm going to hope at least one of
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: Fry wins. Fry, GM3, and Ribeiro win. Again, DraftKings has
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: the three favorites in those fights when you parlay them
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: all together at plus money. So I feel good about it.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: I think they'll be under-owned. I think they have a
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: lot of upside. Allows you to leave money easier. So yeah,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, I like all the favorites and I like
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: all those dogs in these three fights. Those are my breakdowns.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: I'm tipping my hand, but that's how I'm going about
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: this card. What do you see in this one?
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm about that life for sure.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: Um, I agree with everything you said, except man, I
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: can just see how this fight turns real ugly for DFS.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: If it goes to a decision, I don't even think
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: fry is making the optimal lineup. I just think this
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: is going to.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: Be your typical, uh, bar room brawl between your most
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: athletic guys in the bar. Uh, but I don't think
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: either one of them are really UFC material, uh, So
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: that's what I'm worried about. We got minus 400 inside
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: the distance.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't even know. I haven't even looked at
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: updated odds.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: It's still minus 400.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, I like that. That's what I like a lot.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: I put it as four stars because of that. Usually
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: when I see minus 400, I think five star, though.
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: And that's just not even in play in this fight
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: because I don't think either guy is a good wrestler.
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: I don't think either guy is an athletic striker at all.
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: It's just that they're heavyweights, and it's a minus 400
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: fight that could be a knockout on either side. So
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: that's all we're targeting here is the knockout bonus from
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: either side, and really more so on the Harris side.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: He has to get a knockout in the first, maybe
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: second round can get him there. But just looking at
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: the two, I'm just more impressed with Harris. So that's
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: why I put him as four-star and Frye as two-star. Man,
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: Frye just really didn't look good at all to me.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: No.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: So I just think Fry is not UFC level at all.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know that Harris is either. But just looking
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: at the two, being a scout, I like Harris more
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: than Fry.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: I would favor him.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: When I was doing this fight, Harris was minus 230.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Now he's the biggest favorite on the card.
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: So however you want to look at that, I kind
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: of thought 230 was a little bit low. But now
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: I'm kind of thinking maybe minus 350. it's a little
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: bit high because I don't trust this guy either.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: So I don't know.
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: We're just looking for, for variance on this fight. We
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: just want a first round knockout. We want these guys
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: to stand in a phone booth, stand in bang and
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: want them to go down. And that's how we make
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: the optimal lineup. And if they don't get the knockout,
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: this is going to be the sloppiest three round fight
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: we have seen in, in weeks.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, at this point, I can't even say months
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: at this.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Point, because there's just so many sloppy fights that they're
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: putting together, but, we need a knockout in this one.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: So give me Harris is my preferred play.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: For sure. But I mean, this is 75% of the
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: time this fight does finish 25%. It goes the distance.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I, Ellen Fry is my least favorite of
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: Ribeiro and GM three, but I don't know if RJ
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Harris should be minus three 50 against anybody. So I'm
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: going to say Fry is my preferred play. Still good
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: with RJ Harris. And the nice thing again about Fry
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: about Ribeiro and about GM three is their opponents are
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: all going to be chalky. RJ Harris at 9,100 is
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: definitely going to be high-owned. And the same can be
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: said about these other ones coming up. So, yeah, definitely
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: tired in this fight. It's minus 400 to finish. Fry,
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: probably my preferred play, as all these dogs will be
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: in those three fights. Next fight, I'm glad it's back-to-back.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: Felipe Franco, minus 330. Brenton Ribeiro, plus 269. This fight is...
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: Minus 650 to finish. Franco minus 225 inside the distance.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Ribeiro plus 315. Franco in round one plus 150. Yeah,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: talking line movement in this one. Franco opened minus 350.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: And then it went down to minus 270 one minute later.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: And then he's taking some money after that. But he
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: did get down to minus 360 just a couple days ago.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: And then there's been some money coming back on the
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: Ribeiro side. Under 1.5, minus 170. I mean, Franco open,
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: minus 200 inside the distance, minus 225. Ribeiro, though, plus
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: 269 money line, plus 315 inside the distance, which is
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: kind of what I'm saying. All of these big dogs
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: in those three fights, almost all their win equity is
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: by finish. They're going to be low owned, fights heavily
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: favored or heavily juiced. If Ribeiro wins, I just don't
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: see how he's not optimal. Again, I'm going to say
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: Ribeiro is my preferred play. Because I really want to
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: be overweight to GM3, to Ribeiro, to Fry, and hoping
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: one of them wins. But obviously Franco's a good play too.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: He should be looking to wrestle. And if he does
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: get Ribeiro on his back, which has not been hard
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: at all for many, he should pound him into the ground.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: But hey, Ribeiro's a scary guy. I prefer Ribeiro to
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: Fry if I have to choose. What do you think
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: about this one?
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: I agree. I prefer just this fight in general. I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: prefer Ribeiro... to.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: Frye because I think he is more dangerous. I think
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: he would actually have a first round striking edge over
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: Franco where I don't even think Frye has any real
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: edge in this fight. And Ribeiro could knock out Franco
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: in the first round. But if he's not striking, I
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: just think that Franco is going to be taking him
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: down and Ribeiro is going to be spending time on
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: the bottom and at a certain point I just think
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: Franco is going.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: To land enough strikes on the ground or.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: Even maybe grab a neck but I would imagine it's
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: probably a ground and pound type of type of finish
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: in this one where I like Franco 9300 I would
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: usually expect a Franco type of fighter to be $ 9, 500.
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: So I kind of feel like we're getting a $ 200
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: discount on Franco. So he's my preferred play. But on
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: a card like this, Ribeiro won't be very owned. I
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: do prefer him to Fry. I don't even know that
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: ownership will be that same way. So I'm fine with
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: this fight in general. It's five star for that reason.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: Give me both sides. But Franco is my pick, my
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: preferred play. Ribeiro will be more of an MME type
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: of thing.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Makes some sense. Let's go on to another great fight
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: from one minus six 50 fight to finish to another
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: Leon Shabazzian minus one 57 Nico price plus one 34
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: minus six 50 for this fight to finish individual inside
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: the distance props and so slow Leon minus one 25
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: price plus one 65 Leon in round one plus one 10, uh,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Nico in round one plus three 50. I'm just going
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: to throw it to you. Um, for a question of like,
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: how do you have this as a four-star and not
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: a five-star fight? I very well might be all in
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: on this one. Under one and a half in this one,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: minus 220. Opened minus, I want to say it was
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: minus 175. Opened minus 165 under one and a half.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: How does this fight fail?
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Just by not finishing.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: If there's not a finish in this fight, It might
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: be sloppier than Harris versus Fry.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: 19% chance. So that is definitely still a chance. That's
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: as big of a chance as the Buccaneers had today
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: against the Cowboys. And it's a three point game at half.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: So anything's possible.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: So that's how the fight in general fails.
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: Shabazzian $ 8, 700 fails.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: From not a finish at all.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know how Shabazzian would be on the optimal
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: lineup with a third round finish or with, a decision
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: when at $ 8, 700, I just don't think he's a good wrestler. Um,
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: he's not a good striker would not be a high
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: pace striker. The only reason it's minus six 50 is
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: because it's prices retirement fight. He sucks at this point
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: and Shabazzian sucks too. So it's just kind of like
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: targeting against both of these guys. And I think it's more, um,
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: Minus 650 because I think Shabazzian's submission game is kind
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: of dangerous. And if the fight goes to the ground,
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: I think Nico probably does get submitted. But if the
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: fight doesn't go to the ground, I mean, maybe Shabazzian
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: could catch him. But I feel like this is like
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: last week with Court McGee, like they're giving Price the
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: whole roster. Who do you think you could beat on
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: this roster? And he's handpicking Leon shitbag Shabazzian. And I
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: think he has a chance to beat him. I mean,
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: he's only $ 7, 500 left. I don't even know that he
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: 10Xs that price tag, but he's definitely in play as
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: an underdog. And if Shabazzian doesn't get really a first-round finish,
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: I'd be worried about him and his ownership being on
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: the optimal lineup. He is my preferred play because I
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: do think he is going to get a submission here.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: But I think minus 650 is too high, personally. I
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: think we could be in for a really shitty... three
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: round fight here and we have to watch the whole thing.
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: And we have a bunch of lineups on this fight.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: I think there's lots of ways it fails and it
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: looks like a regional scene fight. Uh, so I would
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: not want to be all in on this fight. My
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: preferred play is Shabazzian for the finish equity, but price
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: is a live dog because Shabazzian sucks ass.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I never thought I'd say in 2026, but yeah,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: Nico price is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: It really just comes down. He's 7,500 at plus one 65,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: any Shabazzian team. I can drop right to Nico price.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: Leave $ 1, 200 and really not give up any bit of upside.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, Shabazzian stinks. Nico Price is as bad
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: as it gets. It is terrible for him. When we
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: talk about GM3, I think GM3 might have handpicked his
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Julius Walker matchup. These are such low-level fights, but it
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: looks like the UFC is trying to get these UFC
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: vets a chance to win. And yeah, like you said,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: he probably did handpick Leon in this one. Just a grappler.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: is Leon finished 11 of his 12 wins by submission.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: He's plus 110 by submission this week. Nico Price more
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: likely to get a knockout. Man, it's really, really bad.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: It's hard to pick Nico Price. I'm not even picking
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: him because he's so bad. But for DFS, I think
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: this is more of a game theory card. That 1200
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: goes a long way and is easy to leave money
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: and you're not sacrificing upside. So But yeah, I mean,
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: of course I like Shabazzian as well. Plus 110 in
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: round one is 47.6%. So it's 47% chance to win
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: in round one. Not sure his ownership even gets that high.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Great fight to target. 20 or less. Maybe I'm not
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: making a rule to be all in, but at least
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: probably 85%. And I would definitely be fine if I
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: was all in on this fight because of the pricing
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: after the main event. It's the main event in this
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: fight for me as my favorite fight to target on
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: the card. And that's mainly because Franco could score 103
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: and not be enough. Same could be said about Harris.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Same could be said about Walker. 103 at 8,700 feels
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: a lot better. So that's my reasoning there. But definitely
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: a great fight to target. Definitely a very low-level gross
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: fight when we're talking real life mixed martial arts. All right,
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: next fight on the card. Another mid-tier fight. Ismael Bamfim
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: taking on Francisco Prado. Prado, minus 117. Bamfim, plus 100.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: This fight is minus 130 to finish. It opened minus,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: or what was it on Tuesday? Tuesday was minus 115
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: to finish. It opened minus 115. So some money is
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: coming on the under. Prado opened plus 155 inside the distance.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: Now plus 135. Bonfim opened plus 415. Now plus 400.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Prado solid round one prop as well at plus 350.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: I'm going to play some Francisco Prado myself. Again, plus
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: 135 inside the distance at 8K. is pretty good. And
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: how I see this fight going, I mean, Prado's a dog.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: He is definitely small for the division. Uh, I mean,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: small in height, but he is like built like a truck.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: He just throws everything with all of his power. And
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: I think he has solid cardio for the division. I'm
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: being skilled, but man, he just feels like, uh, when
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: the going gets tough, it feels like he's not, uh,
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: he doesn't live up to that hype. He will, he'll
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: fold and live to see another day. And I don't
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: think you want to be in that situation against Prado.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: So I don't love this fight, but I definitely prefer
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: the Prado side. I think he has a lot more upside.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the mid-tier is really bad outside
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: of the main event, which is the reason I will
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: be all in on that fight. What do you see
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: in this one?
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm kind of Prado or pass on this one.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, Bonfim has more experience. He's got a better brother.
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: But I mean, 30 years old again for him, kind
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: of like Gato.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: He just seems washed to me.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: I just don't know that there's anything good about Bonfim
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: at this point. I think round one, he can show up,
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: be a little bit dangerous early, maybe catch Prado, score
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: 100 plus points at low ownership.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: But I don't really.
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: Expect him to wrestle for multiple rounds. I don't expect
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: him to keep up any sort of pace for three rounds.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: And I think he's a front runner. I think if
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: things start going Prado's way, Bonfim will look for a
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: way out.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: So I think Prado has.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: More like long-term finish equity, I guess, in this fight.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: Whereas Bonfim, if it's not the first round, I think
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: he slows down. But Prado could get a first round,
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: second round, third round knockout. I just don't think that
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: Prado is going to be a minute winner in this
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: fight where he's not going to be scoring many takedowns either.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: He's not going to have a super high pace. If
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: he gets a decision win, probably not on the optimal lineup.
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: So I think we're really hunting for a finish on
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: either side of this one. And I just trust the
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: younger Prado at this point for, for really everything.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: So it's Prado or pass.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: We totally see it the same, even though I like
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Prado a little bit, I still don't love the fight
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: in the, I do not see how either are optimal
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: if it goes the distance, but the under has taken
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: a little money Prado good inside the distance prop. I
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: will definitely have some. All right, let's get to the
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: third fight again that I grouped together with Franco and
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: RJ Harris. Big favorite, Julius Walker, minus 275. Taking on
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: Gerald Mearshart, plus 228. Minus 550 for this fight to finish. Walker,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: minus 210 inside the distance. GM3, plus 315. Walker round
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: one at plus 200. Again, I'm playing a lot of
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Gerald Mearshart. He's good leverage off of Walker. He's going
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: to be owned. When he wins, he should score well.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: He's only 7,000. Ribeiro, Alan Fry, GM3, three shitty fighters.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: GM3 at this point is kind of shitty, but he's
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: definitely not shitty in his prime. But yeah, I'm going
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: to be hoping at least one of them win on
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: this card. If all three of them loses, it's probably
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: not going to be a good day for me. The
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: question I want to throw to you before you break
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: down this fight, how is GM3 plus 450 by submission
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: and Walker's plus 475? Like I know Walker can grapple,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: but man, and GM three is, I mean, he's tied
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: for third in the UFC and submission wins in history.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: So is it just like he gets tired and he
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: gets choked out or do you see it the same way?
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Do you think their submission props should be pretty much even?
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I would favor Mearshart for submission wise.
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: I guess that would just be Mearshart just looking for
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: a way out. Just he's going in there for a paycheck.
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: And if he gets taken down, gives up his back,
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: Walker can choke him out. I guess that would be Walker's.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: He has been submitted 10 times. So, I mean, like
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: it may, it does make sense. Um, but man, it's just,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: it's weird to see that. Yeah.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: I just don't look at it.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: Walker is that kind of guy, but I mean, Walker
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: would be the wrestler in this one. So, I mean,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: maybe it is just mere shark giving up his back.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: So I guess it's somewhat makes sense, but Walker's the wrestler.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: Walker's the younger guy, the more athletic guys. He's a,
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: the better striker, I guess. So the two more knockout power,
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: more durability, uh, but minus 265 against really anybody.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: In the UFC.
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: I just don't, I don't know about that. And Mirshar
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: has more submissions than Walker has fights in general. So
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: I think even if Walker's going for takedowns, he is
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: not safe. I think Mirshar is more likely on bottom
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: to get a submission than Walker is on top. So,
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm picking Mearshart by submission in this fight.
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: I saw Walker minus 265. I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: I like Mearshart as an underdog typically, but I would
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: not like Walker against fucking RJ Harris as a minus 265.
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: So I'm on Mearshart in this one, but I do
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: think Mearshart's at the end of his career. He could
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: get knocked out in any round. Walker could land takedowns
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: in every round. And if the submission's not there, Walker
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: could also score pretty well just by takedowns, top control
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: time alone. So it's a five-star. I like both sides
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: of it. If I'm making one lineup, it's Mearshart though.
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: So I almost made my stars four-star Mearshart, two-star Walker,
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: but that's just for you podcast listeners.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: There you go. I like it. I'm on GM3 too. Again,
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: I think Julius Walker is a good play, but I'm worried,
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: like if I'm Julius Walker, I'm not trying to take
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: down GM3. Like I know you're good at takedowns, but GM3,
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's going to pull, he would gladly pull
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: you into him and accept that takedown to try and
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: work off his back. And he's definitely live for a submission,
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: even off of his back. So go GM3, go Ribeiro,
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: go Fry. I rank him GM3, Ribeiro, Fry for me.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: And also again, why I like GM3, Ribeiro, and Fry
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: and playing at least one of them in a lot
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: of lineups, is when I play them, then if I'm
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: playing GM3, okay, now it's easier to play Franco and Harris.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: When I play Fry, it's easier to play Franco and Walker.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: I don't expect all three of them to win, but
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: I'd say more than likely, more than half the time,
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: one of these dogs will win, and then the other
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: ones probably score great, and it's easier to fit them
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: when you dumpster dive. So that's my strategy on this
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: 12-fight card. All right, we'll keep it rolling. Again, appreciate it. Yep,
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: what's up, Lone? GM3 is a notorious quitter for sure.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: Lost 15 fights by finish, 10 of those. have come
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: by submission. And no one at his grappling caliber should
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: be losing 10 fights by submission. So that does say
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: a lot. We appreciate everyone hanging out. Again, all we
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: ask is the like button and subscribe button. It helps
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: us out a ton. We are on to the next
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: fight on the card. Malcolm Wellmaker, minus 210. Attar Tanzilov,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: plus 177. Minus 140 for this fight to finish. Wellmaker,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: plus 100 inside the distance. Tanzilov, plus 575. Wellmaker in
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: round one, plus 250. It's been disappointing for Wellmaker in
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: his last two fights, but I think he finally shored
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: up his defensive wrestling. I mean, what else would this
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: dude be doing in camp besides just take down defense,
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: take down defense, get up if you're taken down? You
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: obviously can strike. You've had trouble stopping wrestling the past
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: two fights. I think that changes in this one. I
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: think Wellmaker can keep it on the feet or get
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: up if taken down, and I think he knocks out
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: Tanzalov at some point, 8,900 points. Allows you to drop
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: a Harris to Malcolm Wellmaker. You leave 200. That'll eliminate
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: a good amount of dupes. Plus 250 in round one
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: is pretty good. He's not going to wrestle, so we
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: do need a first or second round finish more than likely.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: But I do think his ownership will be in check
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: as well. Like Shabazian's going to be way higher on
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: for cheaper. Allen, a higher on for cheaper. Then I
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: think you get the Walkers, the Francos, the Harris all
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: more expensive too. So I'm going to use Wellmaker as
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: a way to get different on this card. I'm pretty
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: confident in him, so I don't want too much Atari,
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: but I think he's going to come out and try
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: and wrestle. Can he keep that pace for 15 minutes?
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Seems like you like him too well on Maker's side,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: so why do you think that?
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: I just think that Atari has more ways to win
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: this fight.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: Well, Maker's got better hands, some of the best hooks
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: in the entire UFC. I think if he lands a
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: clean hook, he's probably going to knock Atari out. But
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: at 8,900, we have to get that knockout in the
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: first round. Maybe second round could get there as well.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: With Atari, he's kind of like turned into a wrestler.
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: So I think wrestling is definitely a fallback for him
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: in this fight. And he scored a 59 in his
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: loss in his first UFC fight.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: Make that a win.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, 89 points at $ 7, 300. I'll take that all
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: day with his wrestling. And I do think wrestling's in play,
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: but I also think he's a decent striker.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: He's like a flashy... I.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: Don't even know that he's a kickboxer, but all his
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: flashiness is with kicks. So I guess that's a kickboxer.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: But I mean, on the regional scene, I would have
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: thought he was more of a striker. So it would
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: have been kicks versus hands in this fight. But now
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: he also has wrestling to fall back on as well.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: So at $ 7, 300... I think any win for him could
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: get there, but a wrestling win should get there. So
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: my preferred play is Tanzilov. I also think that the
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: line is kind of baking in a little bit of
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: well-maker hype. There's never been Atari hype, but there has
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: been some well-maker hype. He's on a down run here,
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: but he is only a striker. He is pretty much
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: hands only striker. And he's got to deal with kicks
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: and wrestling in this one. I just wouldn't trust $ 8, 900
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: on this card. If I'm making five lineups, Wellmaker's not
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: making my pool. I don't think he's making my pool
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: with 10 lineups. 20, he probably gets in there. But
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: I would probably need 20 lineups to pay $ 8, 900 for
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: a Wellmaker.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: All right. We finally get to a fight where we're
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: a little different on this card. I like it. I
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: like it. Four fights left. It looks like we're going
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: to agree on this fight. Not liking it too much.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: Andre Feely minus 145. Kai Kamaka, the third, plus 124.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: Plus 125 for this fight to finish. Feely plus 180
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: inside the distance. Kamaka plus 525. For the most part,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: it's Feely or pass. Again, it's kind of like, I
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: look at Kamaka as like the Zelenikova, the Karisgete. Like, sure,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: his money line for the price is good. When he wins, though,
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: I think he probably scores 70 points. I don't think
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: 70 is going to be enough on this card at 7,600.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: If 11 of the 12 favorites win and he's the
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: only dog, sure, that'll be enough. But again, we have
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: no favorite over minus 350 this week. I think we
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: see multiple dogs barking. I'm searching for upside. Kai Kamaka
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: is literally the worst person when you're talking upside. Feely,
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: do I love him? No, but I think he could
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: wrestle and I think he can knock out Kamaka. Plus
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: 180 inside the distance isn't bad. He's going to be
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: low owned. Shabazian's 100 more. Brendan Allen's 100 less. It's
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: a clear game theory pivot with a solid inside the
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: distance prop and possible wrestling upside. But that's really all
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: I can say. I mean, the fight's supposed to go
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: the distance. And if it does, this fight is completely busting.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: So Feely or pass for the most part. What do
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: you think?
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm cool with that. I really just don't like
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: the fight in general.
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: I think Feely does have more upside in this one.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: So I'd be okay using it for ownership reasons plus
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: upside reasons. But I think we're getting more downside in
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: this fight. It's probably more likely a three-round fight, in
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: my opinion, anyways. And I just think that Feely's just
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: the better scrapper, the more well-rounded, more experienced fighter. But
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: Kamaka's the younger, more athletic guy who's a decent point fighting. Yeah,
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: he could win minutes in a 15-minute fight. But yeah,
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: I guess at 7,600, I don't know how much I
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: love that when there's a couple others on this fight
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: that are similar to him. But we also have like
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: these cheaper ones that you've mentioned who have way higher ceilings,
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: but also just way lower floors. So yeah, I kind
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: of think Kamako would be more like a cash game
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: type of play and Feely would be your GPP type
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: of play. But this has been a fight when I've
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: been building lineups. I really just haven't even been thinking
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: about this fight at all. So I think it's going
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: to be a fade for me and I'm going to
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: hope Feely wins and score 70 points.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, like any Kamaka team, I'll just drop down to Fry,
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: to Ribeiro, to GM3. I'm giving up money line equity,
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: but I'm getting less dupes and I'm getting way more upside.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: That's what I'm doing on this card. You guys know
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: my plan by now. And again, I said it earlier,
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: like 19% that the, what was it? The Shabazzian Price
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: fight was 19% to go the distance or something. And
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: I said that was the same as the Buccaneers. Well,
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: they're up 14-10 against the Cowboys right now. And as
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: you MMA fans know, we just saw Gable Stevenson Two
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: weeks or three weeks ago. So anything goes in this sport. Yeah,
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: we do our best. That's kind of why I most
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: of the time talk game theory, talk numbers. When you win,
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: how much do you win? That's the game we play.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: in daily fantasy it's uh it's it's not betting it's
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: a it's a different game so that's all i'm gonna
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: say there three fights left another fight heavily favored to
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: go the distance lupi godinez minus 230 ketlin soza plus
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: 193 Minus 275 for this fight to go the distance.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Plus 315 inside the distance for Lupi. Plus 575 for Sosa.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: I'm going to play some Lupi in this one. She
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: is going to be very low-owned, but she's my low-owned
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: pivot in the 9K range. She scored over 120 twice.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: Ketlin Sosa can't stuff takedowns. She's a striker. Lupi hasn't
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: put on the wrestling shoes heavy lately, but man, she'd
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: be so smart if she just did that. Or she'd
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: be really dumb if she didn't do that. Why strike
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: with Soza when takedown should be free? Do I think
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: loopy is going to be optimal? No, but when she
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: is optimal, I think you can be paid off handsomely
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: because ownership will be really low and she does have
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: the wrestling upside to secure five possibly. So it's loopy
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: or pass for the most part. Soza, again, give me GM3,
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: give me Fry, give me Mearshark, give me the ones
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: with more upside for cheaper. So if you're playing 50
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: plus teams, I wouldn't X out anyone. on this card
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: due to the money lines, but she's a floor play.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: She's reminds me of Kai Kamaka, like, and then loopy
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: is like the, the feely, the low own pivot in
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: the upper tier. And I do prefer her in this one. Yeah.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're probably going to say it busts. Hey. Yeah.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: If I'm making 50 plus teams, I'm excellent.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: But I'm also cool.
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: I think Godina's does make sense as an ownership type
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: of play at nine K people are really not going
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: to want to click on her. Um, but I think
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: she is the better boxer of the two. Not that
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: that's going to do us any good at nine K,
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: but the wrestling is definitely on her side and it
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: would be really smart of her to mix in that wrestling.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: When I think the only edge for Sousa would be
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: knockout power. So why even deal with that knockout power
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: when you have a clear wrestling edge and you can
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: deal with wrestling for 15 minutes?
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: I think that's actually a smart way to look at
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: this fight where I really wasn't even thinking Godinez.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: Uh, but.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: At low ownership, a.
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: Striker with a wrestling background who sometimes can be smart,
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: I think that does make some sense. Yeah, give me
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: a little bit Godinez of this one on low ownership.
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: I think that's my way to get different now.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: I like it. I like it. Two fights left going to,
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: I think, a solid fight. It's not co-main event worthy
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: on any card, but hey, here we are. Mateus Camillo,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: minus 185. Jai Herbert, plus 157, minus 200 for this
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: fight to finish. Camillo, minus 110 inside the distance. Herbert,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: plus 375. Camillo in round one, plus 260. Yeah, I
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: like Camillo more than Loopy and Feely in a vacuum.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Maybe he's a little higher owned, but he can't be too,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: too high owned. People are going to prefer Leon for cheaper,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: and then they're going to want to get up to
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: the Harris, to the Walker, and the Franco range. So
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: minus 110 to finish, I think is pretty solid. You
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: see these takedowns, 4.16. It is a pretty small sample. Herbert, though,
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: not great takedown defense. He's just a striker. Camillo should
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: come out there and put on the wrestling shoes. And
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: if he does, he has upside. And as far as Herbert,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's always live for knockout. He's throwing his
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: way back to a London card. I don't know if
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: it was like six, seven years ago. But he almost
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: knocked out Ilya Teporia. Had one of the nastiest head kicks,
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: and Ilya recovered. But it just shows. Herbert can knock
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: anyone out. The problem with him is he's so low
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: volume and he's so boring, he needs a knockout. And, like,
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: probably the first two rounds, maybe at 7,400, a third
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: round would be enough. But he could win a decision,
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: and he's probably not going to score. So, yeah, Camilo,
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: my preferred side. I will have some Jai, though, because
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: he is a powerful striker. Big height and reach advantage
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: in this one. But Camilo, also 13 years younger. What
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: do you think about this? Three stars all the way
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: around for you.
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just not sure what to think about this one.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: I think Camilo is our more well-rounded fighter. He should
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: be the one looking for takedowns. He'd be more alive
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: for a submission. He could also test Herbert's weak chin
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: and get a knockout on the feet. He just knocked out,
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: who did.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: He knock out? Sadikov?
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, he knocked out Sadikov in his last fight,
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: who I thought had a pretty decent chin. And Herbert
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: really doesn't have that great of a chin. So I
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: think Camilo's in play for a submission or a knockout.
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: Minute to minute, I would definitely be worried about an $ 8, 800
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: price tag on the feet. But if he's going to
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: wrestle a lot in this fight, I think he could
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: pay that off. In a striking match, 15 minutes, that's
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: what puts Herbert in play. He's definitely the more talented
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: kickboxer in this one. Going to be taller, has a
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: big reach advantage as well. Just a more skilled striker
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: in general. So if it were a 15-minute striking match,
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: Herbert probably.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: Wins that as an underdog.
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: Um, if he gets a knock down, he could even
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: be in play for the optimal in a decision, but
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: he probably needs, um, a knockout for any real ceiling,
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: any real chance that like, oh yeah, Herbert's for sure
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: on the optimal lineup that would come from a knockout.
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: But if just underdogs aren't winning on this card, he
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: gets one knockdown.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: I think he could.
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: Score 80, 85 points on this card and be absolutely fine.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: So I'm cool.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: With either side of this fight. I think the way
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: I would use this fight is just kind of use
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: it as a sixth place in my lineup. Just start
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: building lineups. If I have 7,400 or less, Herbert's in there.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: If I have 8,800 or less, Camilo's in there.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Hey, that makes a lot of sense for me. I
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: think three stars all the way around is pretty similar
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: to where I'd have it as well. I think both
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: are going to be relatively low owned. You can make
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: a case for both sides. Don't really have a strong
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: or preferred one. It's when I need to get different
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: in the upper tier, I'll go Camillo. If I got
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: to get different in the lower tier or have the money,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I'll play Jai Herbert. Like give me Jai Herbert over
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: Kai Kamaka. I'll just leave the 200 for sure. Give
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: me Jai Herbert over Karis Keite over Zelenikova. It's kind
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: of why I keep talking about leaving money, but I
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: don't love the mid tier. I mean, you can go
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: any bomb theme team down to Jai Herbert right there.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: You just left $ 800. So you guys know where I'm
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: at for this card. All right, it's the main event time. Again,
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: appreciate everyone hanging out. Again, just heading over to Ship
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: of Nation. Again, if you do want to join us,
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: bottom left, join the nation. You can see all of
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: our different options. Five days for $ 19 if you have
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: never tried us, I think is the best deal. NFL
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: going on, college football, PGA, MLB, MMA, NASCAR, and NHL.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: And in less than two weeks, NBA will be back
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: as well. So great time to get in. Otherwise, monthly packages,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: as you can see, weekly packages. packages and you can
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: see everything that you get with each package uh as
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: it gets more expensive you do get more of course
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: then single sport mma 29 a month if you want
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: to join us and big marley and now we're talking
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: a little pre-show man it's been like six cards straight
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: it feels like and like we're continuing to roll the
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: ufc is all gas no breaks right now for a
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: while so definitely get a great bang for your buck
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: all right Last fight, let me head back over to
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: the stone. I mean, by far the best real-life fight
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: on the card. It's not even close. Like, this is
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: real UFC caliber, mixed martial arts. We got a clash
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: of styles. Brendan Allen, the grappler, thinking on Christian Leroy Duncan,
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: the striker, minus 120 Allen, plus 103 Duncan, minus 170
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. The slight underdog, better inside
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: the distance prop at plus 175 versus plus 190 for Allen.
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: A couple things to note. So you can see this
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: fight was minus 190 to finish on Tuesday. Now it's
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: minus 170. So the over has taken some money. You
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: can see on Tuesday, Allen was minus 140. Now he's
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: minus 120. So Allen opened up minus 210. A minute
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: later was minus 110. So went from minus 210 to
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: a pick'em right away. Shortly after that, Allen went to
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: the minus 140 range, got as low as minus 158.
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: And then ever since then, Money has come in on
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: the CLD side. Really interesting. On the money line, CLD
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: is the value. $ 800 difference for a minus 120 plus
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: 103 fight screams the underdog in CLD is better. On
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: the game theory card, on the card I want to
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: leave money, that's leaning me to the CLD side because
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: any Allen team, go CLD, leave 800, you're not giving
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: up much upside. With all that being said, it's like, man, Allen,
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: he should put on the wrestling shoes. He's fallen in
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: love with his hands a little bit lately, and he's
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: a good striker. This is not the matchup you want
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: to try out your striking against, though. So do you
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: think he wrestles? Do you think he wrestles heavily? If
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: you played 50 teams, are you all in on this fight?
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: If you played 150, are you all in? How do
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: you see it going down? What do you think your
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: exposures would be? I'm really curious to hear your take
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: on this.
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: I don't know about 150. I think 50 I would
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: probably want to be all in. So when I did
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: this fight, Allen was minus 162. I still ended up
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: picking Allen. So I think Allen is the side in
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: this one. It is a striker versus grappler matchup where
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: it should be clear that CLD is the better striker.
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: He's going to be way more dangerous on the feet.
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: But Alan, if he's not getting knocked out, Alan can
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: hang with them on the feet where I don't think
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: Duncan can hang with Alan on the ground.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: And it's a five round fight. Duncan's been taken down
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: a lot. He's actually had. PR set against it. Like
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: came in here, five takedowns, takedown.
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: PR right there. Um, the leads, they had three takedowns
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: on Leroy, man. The leads, they hadn't had more than
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: three takedowns. It's like you were in high school, bro. Um,
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: Rodriguez set a PR for takedowns. Armand Petrosian got his
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: only takedown in the UFC against CLD. So not only
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: is he like, I wouldn't say easy to take down,
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: but he's such a scary striker. You really want to
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: take this guy down. So when you have a clear
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: grappling edge and you're trying to put your name in
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: title mix, you don't want to play around with CLD.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you can knock them out, sure. Then
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: you put yourself in the title picture, but I don't
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: think that's Allen's game. He's just a decent striker who
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: could win. in a 25-minute striking match, but if he
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: takes Duncan down, he could really look like he belongs
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: in the title picture. So I'm on the Allen side
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: of this one. I'm probably going to be low on
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: Duncan because now it's a pick-em-fight damn near. The line's
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: been going in his way. I think he's going to
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: have closer to 50% ownership. So with limited lineups, I
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: made 150 lineups last week for the first time in
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: a long time, and it was a big mistake.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: Not doing that again in a while.
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: So I'm going to be more limited on this card.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to be heavy on Allen. Allen's my
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: favorite player on the card.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: That's funny. Yeah, 150 is tough for sure. Yeah, I
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: don't have a strong take on this one. I'm a
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: big Brendan Allen guy. But the money you can leave
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: with CLD and the line movement, like the line has
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: definitely gone against them. And I definitely respect what the
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: market sees. So I'm probably thinking I'll be somewhere 60-40 CLD.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: A lot of my CLD teams will leave. A decent
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: chunk of change. That's all we got for this 12-fight
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: card at the apex. Again, 8 of the 12 expected
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: to finish. No favorite above minus 350. I mean, if
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: this was 13 fights, we got the nut DFS card. Like,
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: there is great fights to target. There's a lot of violence.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: A lot of expected finishes. A lot of dogs should
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: be barking. You can leave money on the table. 12
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: fights isn't great, but you know how to get different.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: Fade the main event. Play low-owned fighters. play fights like
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: a Gato fight or a Pereira fight. It's clear where
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: ownership's going to go. So I'm excited for this one
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: in terms for DFS. A couple of these fights I'm
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: excited for. A lot of low-level fights, but, hey, we
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: should see some funny violence and some slop fest going on,
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: and that can always be funny as well. So any
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: final thoughts for you before we get on out of here?
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll probably know if I'm excited about this one
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: after the Harris fight, but if I'm not excited, then
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: good luck to you, Tidal.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it as rights. Head over to ShippinNation.com. So
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: much going on. Let's have a little extra cheese in
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: our pocket from Saturday to parlay into NFL free money Sunday.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: Hope everybody out there has a good week, has a
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: good weekend. ShippinNation.com. That's all we got for Big Marley.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: I'm Title Tom. Be safe. Peace.